1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 2 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros, and it's time to 3 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: talk a little NBA. It's me Joey p Joe piez Apia. 4 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: Welcome to the show everybody. We've got a great one 5 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 1: for you today. One of my boys, one of my 6 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 1: Jersey guys who I've done probably thousands of shows with 7 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: now over the last five plus years of my life. 8 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 1: He's one of my good friends. But he's also one 9 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: of the best folks in terms of NBA to talk 10 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: to out there on the landscape, whether it be DFS, 11 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: whether it be wagering, and today, of course we're talking 12 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: to him about wagering. He's the head of betting content 13 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: over at Fade the Noise and that's FTN for those 14 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: of you cool kids. And as you could see here 15 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: if you're watching us on the YouTube channel, you see 16 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: him flashing the little stuff there right there. He is 17 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 1: a product placement all the time. But he is one 18 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 1: of my favorite dudes. He's my Pizon. He's Benny Richardi. Everybody. 19 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. Benny, how you doing brother. 20 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 2: That's a hell of an intro right there. Bro sif 21 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 2: I love it right there? But yeah, I mean, you 22 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 2: know how it is when you start getting old, John, 23 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 2: I don't even go like close shopping anymore. Everything I 24 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 2: have is given to me by like one of the 25 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 2: companies that I do a show for, one of the 26 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 2: companies that I hop on for. I'm waiting for my 27 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 2: betting Pro T shirt right now, so this right now 28 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: that I need one of those, because summer's coming up. 29 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 2: I need some new T shirts. 30 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: So you know I don't even have one yet. I mean, 31 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 1: if I don't know how you could get one Before 32 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 1: I get one, I gotta get more swag. I mean, 33 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: but you're right, you are the swag king. There's no 34 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 1: doubt about that. Absolutely that is the case. And today 35 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: we're gonna do with Benny's We're gonna go through some 36 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: NBA stuff. We're getting towards the playoffs now, so we're 37 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 1: gonna go through some of the bets for some of 38 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 1: the awards, what's out there, what's even worth looking at. 39 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 1: We're also going to talk about some of the conferences, 40 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: some of the standings where we're at right now, and 41 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: maybe a little look into the playoffs, see what's going on, 42 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: what Benny likes as we're kind of heading closer and 43 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 1: closer to that, and look, it's it's been a pretty 44 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: dark good NBA season. I would say, you know, I 45 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 1: know a lot of people were kind of skeptical going 46 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: in once again, and I feel like, you know, the 47 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: further we get down here, the more we're getting to 48 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 1: more of a sense of normalcy with things, which is great. 49 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: We've seen what's happened last year with the NFL and 50 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 1: then obviously with Major League Baseball this year with crowds 51 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 1: being back. So you know, let's start with some of 52 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: the awards, Benny. Let's start with MVP, which Nikola Djokic 53 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,959 Speaker 1: is at minus four hundred on consensus Betting Pros right now. Again, 54 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,519 Speaker 1: Betting Pros takes the consensus from all the different houses 55 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: kind of compiles them into one number. After that, you 56 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 1: got Joel Embiid at plus three fifty and Steph Curry 57 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: at plus fourteen hundred. So I'm just gonna be simple 58 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 1: with this. Is this just a foregone conclusion? 59 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 2: Here? 60 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: Is this something you just completely stay away from or 61 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: you know, I mean, because the odds minus four hundred 62 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: laying four to win one hundred seems kind of crazy 63 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 1: to me. Do you think there's any chance that embiid 64 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 1: or anybody else sneaks in this conversation? 65 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 2: So? Do I think Djokis is the favorite right now 66 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 2: to win it? Absolutely? Do I think he should be 67 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,679 Speaker 2: minus four hundred? No, I don't. I would not lay 68 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 2: money on him at minus four hundred right now. Basically 69 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 2: at minus four hundred, you're saying he has an eighty 70 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 2: percent chance of winning this award right now, and I 71 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 2: think it's above fifty percent, but I wouldn't go as 72 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 2: high as eighty. And like I said, he is probably 73 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 2: the guy who's most likely to win, But do you 74 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 2: really want to lay one hundred dollars to win twenty five? Like? 75 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 2: That's basically what you're looking at here at minus four hundred. 76 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 2: I think Steph Curry is worth a little bit of 77 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 2: a gamble here because of all these other guys, he's 78 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 2: the one. Him and Embiide have a little bit of 79 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 2: a chance here. Now. The reason why I say, if 80 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 2: you're gonna make a little gamble here, I'd rather do 81 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 2: Steph Curry is because you're getting Steph Curry at like 82 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 2: plus what did you say plus fourteen hundred was the 83 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 2: if you're gonna make a wager, that's probably the better 84 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 2: way to go on it right now. Now again, do 85 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 2: I think Steph Curry is gonna win it? No, I 86 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 2: do think Nankolea Jokic is gonna win it. But I 87 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 2: think that at twenty to one on Steph Curry, or 88 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 2: even fifteen to one on Steph Curry, that's given him 89 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 2: like a five or six percent chance of winning this award. 90 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 2: And I think he's probably closer to maybe ten percent 91 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 2: here because if you look at the numbers this year, 92 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 2: he's the guy. I mean, it depends what do you 93 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 2: count as what makes a guy the most valuable to 94 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 2: his team, Because to me, one of the things that 95 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 2: I look at is the expected win total that that 96 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 2: player creates for his team. So basically, they look at 97 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,160 Speaker 2: the stats and they say, a guy like this, if 98 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 2: you put him off this team and put him on 99 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 2: another team, this is the number of expected wins a 100 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,679 Speaker 2: guy with these stats would have. You know, Steph Curry 101 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:28,159 Speaker 2: is thirty three. He's leading the league. So by that metric, 102 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 2: he is the most valuable player in the league to 103 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,279 Speaker 2: his team. His team would be thirty three depending on 104 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 2: who the substitution is, but if you substitute him with 105 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:38,479 Speaker 2: the league average player, they would be thirty three games 106 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 2: worse off than they are with Steph Curry. Nobody else's 107 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 2: you know, even close to that number. Joelle Embiid, I think, 108 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 2: is at thirty one, So he's another guy that's like 109 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 2: kind of in that conversation. But Steph has the best 110 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 2: number in the league overall. There. But again, you and 111 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 2: I know Joe that a lot of these things aren't 112 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 2: based on stats, right these are they're voted on by 113 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 2: you know. 114 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 1: Writers, their media awards, That's what they are. Yeah, And 115 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:00,279 Speaker 1: one of the. 116 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 2: The things that goes along with that is they usually 117 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,600 Speaker 2: give it to a guy who's on the team that's 118 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 2: winning a lot of games. And you know, there are 119 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 2: other guys who have had better stats than Djokich has 120 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 2: this season, but he's the guy that's avoided being hurt. Like, 121 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:14,720 Speaker 2: if Joel Embiid didn't get hurt, there's a good chance 122 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 2: Joel Embiid could be the guy who is the you know, 123 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 2: the one in the clubhouse leader right now. If Lebron 124 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:22,720 Speaker 2: didn't get hurt. Lebron was having some really good numbers 125 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 2: on both ends of the floor this year, there's a 126 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 2: guy that you could be there. You know, Giannis is 127 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 2: not great on the offensive end, but he's still a 128 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 2: well above average offensive player, and he's one of the 129 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 2: elite defensive players in the league, like a top five 130 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 2: guy when it comes to you know, points safe per 131 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 2: one hundred possessions. So a lot of these guys had 132 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 2: a chance, but a lot of these guys also miss 133 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:43,799 Speaker 2: time right now. So really, the guy who's been consistent 134 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,840 Speaker 2: and who has played even above expectations a little bit 135 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 2: this year and whose team is winning games right now 136 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 2: is Nicola Jocis, which is why he is the clubhouse leader. 137 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 2: But of all the ones we're gonna talk about, there's 138 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 2: a couple other clubhouse leaders that I'd be like, yeah, 139 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 2: you could put money on him at that price if 140 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 2: you want to, Jokis is the one that I would 141 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 2: not be betting on here. This is a guy with 142 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 2: only twelve expected wins above you know what he would 143 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:08,600 Speaker 2: normally gap for a replacement player here. Not that that's 144 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 2: a bad number either, that's still a good number, but 145 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,040 Speaker 2: it's just if not Steph Curry's thirty three, it's not 146 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 2: joell In BEA's thirty one, Like if that's how we're 147 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:18,599 Speaker 2: measuring someone's worse to a team. He's really not the 148 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 2: guy who has meant the most to his team this year. 149 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I look across the board and only 150 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: the lowest number I see here is minus three fifty 151 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 1: seven over at bet MGM for Djokich. And that still 152 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: seems like, you know, a hard pass there. And I 153 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: like the case that you're making for Curry, and I 154 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: think you know, in sense of like media award right now, 155 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: it seems like the grounds well is going there. But 156 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 1: I think you're right. It definitely feels as though it, No, 157 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 1: it shouldn't be so much of a favorite right now. 158 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,119 Speaker 1: It feels like it should be a little bit tighter. 159 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 2: You know, we're talking betting numbers right now, So it's 160 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 2: not it's not that I'm saying Nicola Jokis probably isn't 161 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 2: gonna win. I just don't think that he should be 162 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 2: eighty percent to win. If you told me he was 163 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:56,599 Speaker 2: even money right now, I'd be like, yeah, I'm gonna 164 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 2: bet on him, and even money. You told me he 165 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 2: was even maybe minus one p fifty minus two hundred, 166 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 2: so like sixty sixty six percent, I'd probably be like 167 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 2: all right, Yeah, he's still the guy we should be 168 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:07,839 Speaker 2: putting money on. And minus four hundred though there's no 169 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 2: value there, there's I'll give you something that's a bigger 170 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 2: lock that we're gonna talk about in a little in 171 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 2: a minute. That's a better number than minus four hundred 172 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 2: that we should be betting on if we're gonna do it. 173 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's move on to the next war here, 174 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: talk about Rookie of the Year, because we've got LaMelo 175 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 1: Ball at minus three h five and Anthony Edwards at 176 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 1: plus two hundred. Again, those are the consensus numbers, and 177 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: you go to bettingpros dot com to see all these 178 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: consensus numbers and you can go pick and choose if 179 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: you do like a wager, Well, where can I get 180 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 1: the best odds? So is this particularly one that you've 181 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: got your eye on. Ball's played very well obviously this year. 182 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: Edwards now slouch either, But right now it's telling you 183 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 1: that Ball is a clear favorite. 184 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,239 Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean to be honest, it's not particularly close 185 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 2: between the two of them. On the floor of this year. 186 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 2: Anthony Edwards had a couple of good games, he's a 187 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 2: good scorer, but LaMelo Ball is the much better player, 188 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 2: is the much better all around player, and is gonna 189 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 2: be the much better NBA player as well long term here. 190 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 2: Plus he has the name recognition that is gonna help 191 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 2: him out anyway. Even though Anthony Edwards was the first pick, 192 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 2: I gotta be honest with you, Joe, I'm going to 193 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 2: give a shout out here to an honorable mention guy 194 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 2: that I like even better than Anthony Edwards. I would 195 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 2: rather vote for Tyrese Haliburton that I would for Anthony 196 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 2: Edwards this year. I think he's had a better overall season. 197 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 2: Right now with the Aaron Fox out on the COVID protocol, 198 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 2: he's getting a chance to kind of run the team, 199 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 2: putting up like double double numbers and points and assist 200 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 2: every night. To me, I always thought he had a 201 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 2: better season than Anthony Edwards did. Again, Anthony Edwards had 202 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 2: such a bad start to the year and his team 203 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 2: was so bad too. It's not like, you know, sometimes 204 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 2: there's a number one overall pick like Lebron comes in 205 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 2: and you know, changes his team's fortune in one season. 206 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 2: If it was a situation like that, I'd be like, yeah, 207 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 2: you have to give it to Anthony Edwards. But I 208 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 2: just I don't think he's done enough to even I 209 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 2: even told people that I don't know if I would 210 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 2: want to bet on him. Even if LaMelo Ball was 211 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 2: like out for the season and never came back, I 212 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 2: still thought LaMelo Ball missing the last couple, you know, 213 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 2: the last couple weeks of the season, already had this 214 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 2: award locked up because he was by far the best 215 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 2: rookie out there. He's still the guy. And again, you 216 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 2: could take Jokitch at minus four hundred, or you could 217 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:06,560 Speaker 2: take LaMelo Ball here at like minus three zho five 218 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 2: minus three zero two. Those numbers are just better. So 219 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 2: if you're gonna put money on something, put it on 220 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 2: where you're gonna get the better return. I'd rather be 221 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 2: here on LaMelo. 222 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 1: All right, So let's move on to the next one here, 223 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: which is I mean, look, Julius Randall's had a great 224 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: season here for the Knicks, and the Knicks really showed 225 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 1: a lot of life here down the stretch, and they 226 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:24,839 Speaker 1: showed a lot of life early on the season two, 227 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: and they got people kind of exciting, and then of 228 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: course they did that Nix lull, which you know, the 229 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: Knicks are like, well, okay, I guess we've kind of 230 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: righted the ship and realized who we are again. But 231 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: then again it kind of peaked as we're getting closer 232 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:37,839 Speaker 1: to the end of the season. So Randall right now 233 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: is at minus five hundred for this award, Jeremy Grant, 234 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 1: Is it plus four hundred? Is this another one where 235 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: it's just a lock and you walk away because it 236 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 1: feels like it? 237 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's really no there's no argument that. 238 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 2: It's no argument there. Yeah, I mean there was there 239 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 2: was a point in the season where there were like 240 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 2: three or four guys in the entire NBA who were 241 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:55,719 Speaker 2: leading their team in points, rebounds on the sist and 242 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:57,839 Speaker 2: Julius Randall was one of them. The other ones were 243 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:02,319 Speaker 2: like Luca, Luca Jihni MVP guys. Right, yeah, exactly, Like 244 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 2: if you're in that company, that's that's the company that 245 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:06,839 Speaker 2: you're in. He has been a godsend for the Knicks 246 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 2: this year. He's been basically their entire offense because that's 247 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 2: really what that team struggles with on the offensive side, 248 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:14,439 Speaker 2: and his defense has been a little bit better too. 249 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 2: I mean, he's always been known as a guy who's 250 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 2: been kind of a dog on defense, but the Knicks 251 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 2: have one of the top defenses in the league this year. 252 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 2: I think they're giving up the third fewest points per 253 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 2: one hundred possessions right now. And you know what, Randall's 254 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 2: numbers look better than they have. So coming to the 255 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 2: Knicks has been great for him. He's played as well 256 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 2: as anybody could this year. You know, he's had triple 257 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 2: doubles at some points this season. He's had a whole 258 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:36,719 Speaker 2: bunch of games with double digit assists that we made 259 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 2: a lot of money on betting on over at FTN. 260 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 2: It's like my favorite bet this year. Everybody over there 261 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 2: will be like, oh, you're playing Julius Randall assist again. Well, yeah, 262 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,719 Speaker 2: it keeps getting it. You know, the guy's gonna keep 263 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 2: going over to number. We're gonna keep playing it. So 264 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 2: I love Julius Randall. He's made me a lot of 265 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 2: money this year. I'm just not willing to invest anymore 266 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 2: of that. At minus five hundred er, I mean, do 267 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 2: I think it's a lock? Yeah, you can get like 268 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 2: sixteen seventeen cents on the dollar for every dollar you 269 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 2: put in there. I mean, if you really don't, you know, 270 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 2: have any other use for that money. Between now and 271 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 2: the end of the season the next three weeks. But 272 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 2: I don't mean throw it in there, but you're not 273 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 2: gonna get You're not gonna get that great of a return. 274 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: But I do think it's pretty much a lock, all right. 275 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: I was talk about Defensive Player of the Year. Rudy 276 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 1: Gobert in minus three thirty five is like it says 277 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 1: this number. Ben sim is at plus two thirty a 278 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: little bit tighter, but again clear favorite here with Gobert 279 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: and Miles Turner is kind of pulling up the rear 280 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:24,839 Speaker 1: a plus seven. So again, it's very heavy favorites here. 281 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 1: It's just a matter of are we interested in the 282 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: lock favorite here? And Gobert is that lock favorite When 283 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:31,679 Speaker 1: it comes to Defensive Player of the year feels like 284 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: as well. 285 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it is because Utah has been the 286 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 2: best team in the NBA this year. And that's not hyperbole. 287 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:42,359 Speaker 2: That's they have the highest point differential per one hundred possessions. 288 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 2: You know, they're like top five offensive production per one 289 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 2: hundred offensive efficiency. They're number one I think right now 290 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 2: currently on defensive efficiency as well. So I mean, this 291 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 2: is a legit team right there, but they don't have 292 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 2: a legit superstar who's gonna win the MVP, Like Donovan 293 00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:00,679 Speaker 2: Mitchell's their superstar. He's not gonna be an MVP candidate. 294 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 2: The writers aren't going to allow this team to have 295 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 2: this good of a season and not have, you know, 296 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 2: some kind of awards coming their way. And listen, Rudy 297 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 2: Gobert is a deserving favorite for this too. I don't 298 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 2: want you to think that he's not. Like when you 299 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 2: look at defensive numbers, there points per one hundred possessions, 300 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 2: which is the stat that everybody uses, as you know, 301 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:21,960 Speaker 2: the main one for defense because it kind of encompasses everything. There, 302 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 2: Rudy Gobert is leading the league. He is worth eleven 303 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 2: and a half points to a team per one hundred 304 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 2: possessions on the defensive side. Without Rudy Gobert, you would 305 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 2: expect that team to score eleven, you know, to have 306 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 2: eleven more points per game scored. Upon him, There's only 307 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:36,840 Speaker 2: two guys that are over ten. It's him and teammate 308 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,679 Speaker 2: Mike Connolly. And you know, like I said, by far, 309 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 2: statistically you can make the case that he is head 310 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 2: and shoulders above everybody else in the league. So I 311 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 2: understand the three thirty five what I don't understand is 312 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 2: the guys that are behind them. Ben Simmons, who I 313 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 2: love and I love Ben Simmons. Ben Simmons is one 314 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 2: of the few guys in the NBA that you can 315 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:57,320 Speaker 2: legitimately put on any player one through five, whether it 316 00:12:57,320 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 2: be the opposing center, of the opposing point guard, or 317 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,840 Speaker 2: anything in between, and he could guard that guy. So 318 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 2: he is the arguably the most versatile defender in the NBA, 319 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 2: which is great, but his numbers aren't jumping off the 320 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 2: page as like, Oh, this guy deserves to be, you know, 321 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 2: the defensive player of the Year. Without him, his team's 322 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 2: defense wouldn't be bad. They're a very good defensive team 323 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 2: and they've been a very good defensive team even in 324 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 2: games that Ben Simmons didn't play. So is he a 325 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 2: great defensive player? Absolutely? Is he a positives to them 326 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 2: on defense? Yes? Does he completely change a game like 327 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 2: Rudy Gobert does And the answer to that is no. 328 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 2: So I will do this. And Miles Turner. I have 329 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 2: no idea why that Miles Turner is on this list. 330 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:34,680 Speaker 2: It makes no sense to me that he is the 331 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 2: third one on this list whatsoever. But I need to 332 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:38,559 Speaker 2: I want to throw the third guys in there, the 333 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:40,560 Speaker 2: guys that should be on this list. Mike Connelly should 334 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 2: be on this list because, like I said, second best 335 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 2: defensive number there, one of the best defensive point guards 336 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 2: in the game has been for a really long time. 337 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 2: Does he get enough credit? Really? Hope he's First Team 338 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 2: All Defense this year. You know, Giannis every year deserves 339 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:53,199 Speaker 2: to be there, and you can say what you want 340 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 2: about him. The guy's an absolute beast, very much like 341 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 2: Ben Simmons, can guard just about anybody on the floor 342 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,439 Speaker 2: at any time. He's long, he rebounds, there's a ton 343 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 2: for your defense right there. And then the other guy 344 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 2: who's unsung and people don't consider him a great defensive player, 345 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:07,959 Speaker 2: but his defensive numbers have been amazing this year has 346 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 2: been Clint Capella. Clint Capella is a big reason why 347 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,440 Speaker 2: the Atlanta Hawk games don't end up one fifty, one 348 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 2: forty every single night. They still get there every once 349 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 2: in a while and a bunch of one twenties and 350 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 2: one thirties, But Clint Coppella deserves a lot more credit 351 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 2: than he's getting on defense as well. So those should 352 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 2: be the names behind Rudy Gobert. But Unfortunately, Rudy Gobert 353 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 2: should win this at three thirty five. If you don't 354 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 2: like the LaMelo play, this is the other place I 355 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 2: put my money before I put it on joking. 356 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 1: Now in some spots like on FanDuel, actually though the 357 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: odds are vastly different, but again, this is the consensus 358 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: number where you know, it's just I also feel like 359 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: you know with the NBA too, there's there's an easier, 360 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: clearer narrative with a lot of these players too, that 361 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: kind of builds over time and then it gets kind 362 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 1: of locked in, and it's very different than the NFL, 363 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 1: and it's very because the NFL is very moving, Like 364 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 1: in the beginning of the year, it was very Russell Wilson, 365 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: and then it gets sort of to turn to Kyler 366 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 1: Murray for a little bit in that discussion, and then that 367 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: went away and Ebsen flows and eventually it's Josh Allen 368 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 1: and Josh Allen kind of all on the peripheral. But 369 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: with the NBA, I feel like some of these awards 370 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: they just get locked in and then the narrative drives 371 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: itself and then it makes it very difficult by this 372 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: time of the season to really get any sort of value. 373 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 1: But I think we can find some value here with 374 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: some of these wagers. So let's with just a few 375 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 1: games left here, let's talk about the Atlantic Division winner. 376 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: We got the Sixers right now, the consensus number to 377 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: win the Atlantic Division minus won thirty nine and the 378 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 1: Nets at even money. So looking at those two right now, 379 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: where do you put your money, if anywhere, on one 380 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: of these two teams? 381 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I would rather have my money on the 382 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 2: Nets here, and there's two reasons why. So after last 383 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 2: night's game, the Sixers are forty and twenty one. The 384 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 2: Nets are forty one and twenty. They're playing seventy two 385 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 2: games this year, so they both have eleven games left. 386 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 2: When you break down those numbers and you put them 387 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 2: into odds and even money, it says that the Nets 388 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 2: have a fifty percent chance of winning the division, and 389 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 2: minus one thirty nine, you're giving the seventy six Ers 390 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 2: a fifty eight percent chance to win the division. Now, 391 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 2: there's a good chance that these two teams both go 392 00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 2: I don't know, seven and four or eight and three 393 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 2: three about the end of the season, because based on 394 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 2: their win percentages this year, that's what you would expect 395 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 2: them to win about two thirds of the remaining games 396 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 2: that they have, which with eleven games means they're both 397 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 2: gonna wind up with six or seven wins here. And 398 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 2: the Nets already have one game up on the Philadelphia 399 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 2: seventy six ers, so you know, they could basically match 400 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 2: the seventy six ers record and still wind up winning 401 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 2: the division, whereas the Sixers are gonna have to hope 402 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 2: that the Nets lose a couple of games here. Now, again, 403 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 2: are the Nets as good without James Harden and without 404 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 2: the Marcus Aldridge, which is something else we'll talk about 405 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 2: later when we talk about championship odds, No, they're not. 406 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 2: But Kevin Durantz back, he's really really good. Kyrie Irving's 407 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 2: still there. He's really really good, really good. Joe Harris 408 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 2: is a great shooter who's going to stand in the 409 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 2: corner and stretch defenses, and that's what every team wants 410 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 2: right now. So the Nets still have enough pieces where 411 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 2: they can go six and five worst case, seven and four, 412 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 2: eight and three best case, and if they do the 413 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 2: eight and three or the seven and four, it's still 414 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 2: their division. So if you're gonna give me even money 415 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 2: on them, where I gotta lay minus one thirty nine 416 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 2: on the Sixers, who are a game back with eleven 417 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 2: games to go. You know, I like the Horsetts and 418 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 2: the lead in the race, Joe, I'm not taking a 419 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 2: one that's behind. 420 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: I'm with you. I agree with you. I would be 421 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 1: on the net side of things as well. Let's go 422 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 1: to the Southeast Division here and we have the Hawks 423 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 1: consensus number which is pretty high mayas four hundred and 424 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 1: the Heat of plus two seventy five. But again, only 425 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 1: two games separate them. So I guess here's my question. 426 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 1: Can the Heat make a late run here with the 427 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,399 Speaker 1: way the schedule looks for them and overtake the Hawks 428 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 1: or it's just just the Hawks right now playing better basketball. 429 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 2: So I mean, this really comes down to a numbers game, 430 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 2: right Like, these two teams are at sixty two already, 431 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:32,679 Speaker 2: so they're down to ten games each. So what you 432 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:34,879 Speaker 2: basically have to hope for if you're in Miami is 433 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 2: Miami's got to go nuts right now. They got to 434 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 2: go like nine and one or eight and two, and 435 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 2: then they still have to hope that, you know, the 436 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 2: Hawks go like five and five over the last ten 437 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 2: games here in order for them to get there. So 438 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 2: what you're really betting on is two different things happening. 439 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,160 Speaker 2: You're betting on Miami going on a run right now. 440 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 2: That is, you know, I'm not gonna say unprecedented, But 441 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,439 Speaker 2: then you also have to hope that Atlanta forgets how 442 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,120 Speaker 2: to play basketball, or that they get a couple injuries 443 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 2: or something where you know they're gonna lose at least two, 444 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 2: if not three, of those. They're gonna have to pick 445 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,399 Speaker 2: up three games in the last ten games of the 446 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 2: season in order to win this conference. It's not again, 447 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 2: it's not out of the question, but you know, it's 448 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:13,919 Speaker 2: very hard to do. You're gonna need the Hawks to 449 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 2: go five and five, and you're gonna have to go 450 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 2: nine and one. Are You're gonna need the Hawks to 451 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,120 Speaker 2: go four and six, which is completely out of character 452 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 2: for them, and you're still gonna have to go seven 453 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 2: and three just to get that done. So there aren't 454 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 2: a lot of scenarios that really play out in Miami's 455 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 2: favor here. And I know everybody loves Miami because they 456 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,200 Speaker 2: made that big run last year, but this team has 457 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 2: not played anywhere near the way they played in the 458 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,400 Speaker 2: bubble last year. The defensive numbers are still pretty good, 459 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,439 Speaker 2: but the offensive numbers are way below what they did 460 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 2: when they went on that run. And that's really been 461 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,680 Speaker 2: a difference for them this year. They've they have burned 462 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:45,439 Speaker 2: more money for betters this year than a lot of 463 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 2: other teams. I think they've only had like a maybe 464 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,639 Speaker 2: like a forty five percent cover percentage this year because 465 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 2: they've basically been over bet all season. 466 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: Wow, that's a staggering number. Their Pacific Division winner right now, 467 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,400 Speaker 1: the Clippers are the consensus favorite minus one thirty nine 468 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 1: with the Suns. Even your thoughts on this division because 469 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 1: Sons have played very well this year, we all know that. 470 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: So what do you think about the Clippers and Suns? 471 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: Do you think this is a foregone conclusion or do 472 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:10,399 Speaker 1: you think kind of like the last even you like 473 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 1: the Suns. 474 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 2: Well, the thing here is that there are nine games 475 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 2: left for the Clippers, eleven games left for the Suns, 476 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 2: and they're even in the win column right now. So 477 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 2: the Clippers basically are in the same kind of situation 478 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:25,879 Speaker 2: where they're gonna have to go eight and one or 479 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 2: seven and two, and they're gonna have to hope that 480 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 2: the Suns just play below sixty six percent, which is 481 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 2: basically what the Suns have won their games at so 482 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 2: far this year. The Suns are gonna need to go 483 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,160 Speaker 2: like six and five through that last eleven, and they're 484 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 2: still gonna need like a like I said, like an 485 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 2: eight and one from the Clippers in order to catch them. 486 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 2: So this is different than the seventy six ers and 487 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 2: the Nets because the seventy six ers and the Nets 488 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 2: have the same amount of games to play. Right in 489 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,719 Speaker 2: this situation, the Clippers have two less games to play, 490 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 2: and the odds are actually even the Clippers better. I'm 491 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,439 Speaker 2: taking the Suns here. You're giving me eleven games with 492 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:00,640 Speaker 2: the same amount of wins, and and all I gotta 493 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 2: do is match the number of wins that the Clippers 494 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 2: get in order to win. This one is the Phoenix 495 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 2: Suns at even money. I like this even more than 496 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:07,919 Speaker 2: I like the Nets and even money. 497 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: There you go. So the Suns and the Nets even 498 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: money consensus, look like they have a real shot to 499 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 1: make some returns. Let's talk a little bit about the future. 500 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 1: Let's talk about Western and Eastern Conference winners, and maybe 501 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 1: get your thoughts of the championship here. If you've got 502 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,400 Speaker 1: any early favorites in your mind Western Conference winner. Right now, 503 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: you've got the Lakers at plus one seventy five, the 504 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 1: Clippers at two sixty. Then you've got the Jazz at 505 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:32,920 Speaker 1: three ten. Now, you know, I love the way the 506 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 1: Jazz have played all year. They've been my favorite team 507 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,199 Speaker 1: to watch, no doubt, from the day one of the 508 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 1: season until now. And it's a different brand of basketball. 509 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: It's more of a throwback brand of basketball. They have 510 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 1: ball movements there, the defense is there, it's just different. 511 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: It's it's something I enjoy watching. The question is when 512 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 1: you start matching up against teams with enormous star power, 513 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 1: what happens? Then? You know, in the short series, can 514 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: this brand of basketball win out? Because look, it's happened 515 00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:59,159 Speaker 1: in the past. I think about that run that the 516 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:03,120 Speaker 1: Piss had years ago too, where it was not really 517 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: the Ben Wallace years or it wasn't like that one 518 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 1: go to star guy, but they were able to make 519 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,200 Speaker 1: the system work. A very physical team there too, play 520 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 1: good defense. But can the Jazz play the style of 521 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,200 Speaker 1: ball and win this conference or is it going to 522 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 1: be the Clippers or Lakers or maybe even somebody else? 523 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: In your mind? 524 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean short answer is no, the Jazz cannot 525 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,160 Speaker 2: beat those teams if those guys are healthy and they 526 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 2: have all their star power there. That what makes the 527 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 2: Jazz so good is they're a very deep team, and 528 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,879 Speaker 2: like you said, they played really good defense in a 529 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 2: half court and they move the ball and they do 530 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 2: all that stuff, and that stuff works great during the 531 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 2: regular season when teams are playing you know, guys eight, nine, 532 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,399 Speaker 2: ten in their rotation, and guys one through five are 533 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,440 Speaker 2: only playing thirty two or thirty four minutes a game, 534 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 2: and the playoffs, guys one through five are playing forty 535 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 2: minutes a game. So yeah, that ball movement and stuff 536 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 2: is great, but it doesn't work as well when it's 537 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 2: Kawhi Leonard and Paul George and all the studs on 538 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 2: the other team on the floor for forty minutes. And 539 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 2: your depth is great too. It's nice to have depth 540 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 2: when you get in the playoffs, but when you get 541 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 2: in the playoffs, it's more about your starters because your 542 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,920 Speaker 2: starters are playing extra minutes. So if the other team's 543 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 2: starters are better than yours, then they're going to be 544 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 2: on the floor at a disadvantage for a longer period 545 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 2: of time than they are in a regular season. And 546 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 2: it happens every year. We watch these teams that come 547 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 2: out of nowhere and be like, oh man, we didn't 548 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 2: think they were going to be there, and oh man, 549 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 2: like the Lakers are sneaking in as like a five seed, 550 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 2: Well they're seeking is a five seat because le Brown's 551 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 2: have played in a month and Anthony Davis took like 552 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 2: two months off because he had some other injury as well. 553 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,440 Speaker 2: But when those guys are healthy, you're not beating that team. 554 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 2: And that's the thing is like everybody's looking right now 555 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:37,679 Speaker 2: and saying like, oh, well, maybe the Jazz can make 556 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:39,880 Speaker 2: a run, Maybe the Jazz can do this. I've been 557 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 2: like you, Joe, I've been higher on the Jazz all year. 558 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:43,880 Speaker 2: We've been betting them all year, We've been making money 559 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 2: on them all year. Other people haven't believed in them 560 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 2: all year. But when it comes to the playoff time, 561 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 2: you do not want to bet on this team. And 562 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,400 Speaker 2: when it comes to looking at the Western Conference Finals, 563 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 2: the fact that their number is only thirty or forty 564 00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 2: basis points off of a team like the Clippers, or 565 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 2: only one hundred basis points of way from a team 566 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,640 Speaker 2: like the Lakers is just ridiculous. The Lakers and the Clippers' 567 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,639 Speaker 2: chances of winning this conference are so much better than 568 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 2: the chances that the Utah Jazz has because the Jazz 569 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,120 Speaker 2: has to beat not one, but both of those teams 570 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 2: to get there, and I don't see them doing I 571 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,120 Speaker 2: don't see them beating either of those teams. So at 572 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:16,679 Speaker 2: some point they're gonna have to play one of them 573 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 2: and they're gonna wind up losing. If you told me 574 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 2: we can get the Jazz at like plus seven hundred 575 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 2: or plus eight hundred, I'd be like, okay, fine. At 576 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 2: the beginning of the season, they were plus thirty six. 577 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 2: I bet them at plus twenty four about a month 578 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:29,879 Speaker 2: into the season, right when they started going on that 579 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:31,960 Speaker 2: first run of like nine or ten wins in a row. 580 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 2: Now that number is down to what is that number 581 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,159 Speaker 2: down to with the Jazz like plus seven hundred to 582 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 2: win the championship, and all these other numbers to win 583 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 2: the conference, to win the division are all derivatives of 584 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,960 Speaker 2: the number to win a championship. So if we think 585 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 2: that that number to win a championship at plus seven 586 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,119 Speaker 2: hundred is way too low, then you can't bet on 587 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 2: this team to win the division or to win their conference, 588 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 2: because that number is gonna be way too low from 589 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 2: what you should be getting it on. So for my money, 590 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,399 Speaker 2: right now, the two best bets are still the Lakers 591 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:00,679 Speaker 2: and the Clippers. If you're looking at take somebody to 592 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 2: win this division, which. 593 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,320 Speaker 1: One would you go with between the two if you 594 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:03,959 Speaker 1: had a choice. 595 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 2: I mean, as long as Lebron is back in playing 596 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 2: the answers to the Lakers, I mean it is like 597 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 2: until somebody. 598 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:10,679 Speaker 1: Well, because plus one seventy five is not terrible to 599 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,679 Speaker 1: come out of the West. That's not a terrible number, 600 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,399 Speaker 1: Like that's that's all right with considering Lebron and becoming 601 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,879 Speaker 1: the star power. I mean, if everything had been clicking 602 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 1: and everyone's on the court in the last couple of weeks, 603 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: I think people would look at this number very It 604 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 1: might even be a minus consensus number right now, but 605 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:25,679 Speaker 1: it's not. 606 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 2: Earlier in the year, this was closer to even money 607 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 2: for them to win the last or plus one twenty 608 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 2: or something like that. Now it's plus one seventy five, 609 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,639 Speaker 2: and again, they were plus two fifty to win a 610 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 2: championship at the beginning of the season. Plus two seventy five, 611 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 2: it might have been like the best number you could 612 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 2: find on them. Now they're plus three fifty. And again 613 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 2: if the plus three fifty, if these other numbers are 614 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 2: derivatives of that win a championship number, then if you 615 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 2: think that plus two three fifty is too high right now, 616 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:52,720 Speaker 2: then you got to think any of their other numbers 617 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:54,080 Speaker 2: are a little too high right now. So I think 618 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,480 Speaker 2: the plus one seventy five for the Lakers probably a 619 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 2: little higher than it should be. That numbers should be 620 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 2: more like plus one fifty or below. So you're getting 621 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 2: some value out of that right now. 622 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 1: All right, let's switch gears to the Eastern Conference, where 623 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 1: we have the Nets at the top of the board 624 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,119 Speaker 1: of minus one twelve and the Bucks at three point fifty, 625 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:12,680 Speaker 1: the Sixers at plus forty four hundred, so a four 626 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 1: to forty Excuse me, So with the seventy six ers 627 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 1: at four forty do they become a trendy pick here 628 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,959 Speaker 1: going in? It just kind of it. It feels like 629 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 1: when you're looking at the odds, you're looking at the board. 630 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 1: If you are one of these people that really just 631 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,160 Speaker 1: does not believe in the super team of the Nets, 632 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 1: that the seventy six ers is the way to go 633 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:32,919 Speaker 1: or is it Jannis in the bucks? Because I think 634 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,200 Speaker 1: last year's playoff run uninspiring. I feel like a little 635 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 1: bit kind of left a little bad taste in people's mouths. 636 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:39,880 Speaker 1: I don't know if the money's going to go there. 637 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 1: Do you think if the money's not going to the Nets, 638 00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 1: it goes to the Sixers? And I guess the question 639 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 1: is should it be? I mean, are the Nets the 640 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:46,960 Speaker 1: foregone conclusion? 641 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 2: So here's my problem with the Nets. I love the Nets. 642 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 2: And if you told me that James Harden was going 643 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 2: to be healthy and Kevin Durant was going to be healthy, 644 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 2: and Kyrie Irving was going to be mentally healthy, and 645 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,159 Speaker 2: all of those guys were going to be there and 646 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,959 Speaker 2: ready and locked in for the run, then minus one 647 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 2: twelve or minus one fifteen, which is where you're seeing 648 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,560 Speaker 2: it sometimes, is way too low a number, like they 649 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 2: would be the prohibitive favorite. But I don't know that 650 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 2: Harden's gonna come back and be okay. You don't have 651 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 2: the boost that they thought they were gonna get from 652 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 2: having LaMarcus Aldridge in there, which I don't think people 653 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,959 Speaker 2: realize how big LaMarcus Aldridge news made me look at 654 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,639 Speaker 2: these numbers and say these numbers are too low because 655 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,199 Speaker 2: adding him as your fourth option is just insane, Like 656 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,679 Speaker 2: it's it's almost not fair. It's a trade that they 657 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,439 Speaker 2: wouldn't let me pull off if I was playing on 658 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,880 Speaker 2: PlayStation or something point in time. I mean, they got 659 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 2: you know, they got him that was released. They picked 660 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 2: them up like that was a great pickup for them. 661 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,320 Speaker 2: So him, you know, deciding to retire, which you know, 662 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 2: no knock on him. I would have done the same 663 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 2: thing if it was my health, So I'm not knocking 664 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,400 Speaker 2: him for it. But it definitely the numbers moved when 665 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 2: he signed, and when KD was on his way back, 666 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,119 Speaker 2: and when Harden was still healthy at the time, and 667 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 2: all those guys are supposed to play together. But now 668 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:56,120 Speaker 2: Harden is out. Harden had a setback, which we don't 669 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,400 Speaker 2: know how long that's going to keep him out. LaMarcus 670 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 2: Aldridge is out with the heart thing, and this number 671 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,640 Speaker 2: hasn't moved. So to me, this number is over bet 672 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 2: because at the very least, there should have been some 673 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,640 Speaker 2: kind of adjustment for Aldridge going down and Hardened being 674 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:11,119 Speaker 2: more of a question mark now than he was a 675 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 2: couple months ago. And we haven't had that. We haven't 676 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 2: had a big adjustment back in the other direction. So 677 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 2: right now, the way I'm looking at it is you 678 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 2: also got to think about all the injuries this team has. 679 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 2: Joe like Kevin Durant could go down again. We've seen 680 00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 2: it multiple times. James Harden, maybe he doesn't come back. 681 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 2: And if that's the case, now you're going to war 682 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 2: against the Bucks, and against the Toronto team that is 683 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,480 Speaker 2: healthy now, and the seventy six Ers team and whoever else, 684 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,280 Speaker 2: the Celtics who are starting to play a little better, 685 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,359 Speaker 2: and all these other teams. You're going to war with 686 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 2: just Kyrie Irving, not the big three of Kyrie, Harden 687 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:45,400 Speaker 2: and Kevin Durant. So I don't think that laying more 688 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,879 Speaker 2: than even money on the Brooklyn Nets right now is 689 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 2: the best way to go. I think the value actually 690 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,440 Speaker 2: comes from the other team. And I agree that everybody 691 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 2: is talking about the seventy six Ers, which also makes 692 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,399 Speaker 2: them overvalued and over bet. The place I want to 693 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,760 Speaker 2: go is actually in the Milwaukee box. You look at 694 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:02,880 Speaker 2: the Bucks. Yeah, you look at the stats for the Bucks. 695 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,639 Speaker 2: Their point differential is only behind I think they're actually 696 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 2: ahead of the Phoenix Suns now they were trailing them 697 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 2: most of the season. But the only team that's got 698 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,199 Speaker 2: a better point differential per one hundred possessions is the 699 00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,159 Speaker 2: Utah Jazz. So the Milwaukee Bucks statistically are still the 700 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,160 Speaker 2: second best team in the NBA at the current moment, 701 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,879 Speaker 2: and you're getting them at plus three fifty, whereas the Jazz, 702 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 2: even in the other conference, you're only getting at plus 703 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 2: three hundred. So I mean, I think it's an easier 704 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 2: path for them than it would be in the West. 705 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 2: And there are reasons to think that if Brooklyn's not 706 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 2: one hundred percent, Brooklyn could wind up losing to one 707 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,879 Speaker 2: of these teams that we're talking about here. And to me, 708 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,280 Speaker 2: Milwaukee is still the best team in the East statistically, 709 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,000 Speaker 2: even though, like you said, people are scared away from 710 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,040 Speaker 2: them because they didn't play last year. But you know what, 711 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,560 Speaker 2: this isn't last year. It's this year, So you can't 712 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 2: let that carry it over. There's still the statistically better 713 00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 2: team and have the better odds of winning it, and 714 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 2: at plus three fifty, I think there's value. 715 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 1: There now when you're looking at the championship. You know, 716 00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 1: before we get more of this knowledge and more of 717 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,320 Speaker 1: this clarity. Is there a number you would want to 718 00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 1: jump on for the championship? Right now? The Nets are 719 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,120 Speaker 1: plus two forty. Doesn't feel like it from what you're saying, 720 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,120 Speaker 1: but maybe that changes because of the odds. We're talking 721 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 1: about two forty overall to buying in. Doesn't feel like 722 00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 1: you're getting there. You have the Lakers at plus three fifty, 723 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 1: the Clippers at plus five hundred, the Jazz plus seven, 724 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,440 Speaker 1: which is not a number. So I'm assuming you're going deeper. 725 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 1: You're looking for maybe the Bucks or somebody like that, 726 00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:24,640 Speaker 1: who in terms of that number very different. So when 727 00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:26,760 Speaker 1: you're looking at consensus, is that where you're going? 728 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 2: Is it? 729 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 1: Is it a Bucks number that really pops to you? 730 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 1: Because there's plus seven to fifty right after the Jazz, 731 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,240 Speaker 1: that's the consensus number in some places, like you'd get 732 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 1: eight hundred I see in a lot of houses as well. 733 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,959 Speaker 1: When you're looking here, like Foxbeth has meant plus eight 734 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,800 Speaker 1: hundred over on bettingpros dot com, is that where you'd 735 00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 1: be going? 736 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 2: Alright? So, Joe, you and I have been doing this 737 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 2: a long. 738 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 1: Time, right, very many years, my friend. 739 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 2: All Right, does the regular season matter? 740 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 3: No? 741 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:49,600 Speaker 1: In the NBA? 742 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 2: No, all right, and especially I was gonna say, and 743 00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 2: especially in the NBA, the n especially in the NBA. 744 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,040 Speaker 2: So at the beginning of the season, right, you look 745 00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:58,760 Speaker 2: at what the numbers were at the beginning of the season, 746 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 2: the Nets for plus six hundred, the Clippers were plus 747 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,360 Speaker 2: six fifty, Milwaukee was plus five fifty. The Lakers were 748 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 2: the big favorites, like plus two to fifty to plus 749 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 2: two to seventy five, maybe a plus three hundred out there, right, 750 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,640 Speaker 2: So if the regular season doesn't matter other than making 751 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 2: sure your guys are healthy and you make it to 752 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 2: the regular season, then why should anything we've seen during 753 00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,240 Speaker 2: the regular season really change the way that we thought 754 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 2: about anything at the beginning of the year, with the 755 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,120 Speaker 2: one exception being the Brooklyn Nets. And the reason for 756 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,320 Speaker 2: it is the Brooklyn Nets are materially different now than 757 00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 2: they were when we were making those plus six hundred 758 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 2: bets at the beginning of the year. They added that 759 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,520 Speaker 2: James Harden guy, he's pretty good at bet he's all right, 760 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,000 Speaker 2: you know. And again, if he's gonna be healthy, if 761 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 2: Kevin Durant's gonna be healthy, if Kyrie is gonna be healthy, 762 00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:41,960 Speaker 2: then that should be a lower number than the plus 763 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:44,040 Speaker 2: six hundred at the beginning of the year. It should 764 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,560 Speaker 2: be basically in line with the number that the Lakers have, 765 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 2: arguably less than that if you think that that Big 766 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 2: three is gonna wind up beating Lebron. So seeing that 767 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,640 Speaker 2: number at two forty right now, I don't think it's 768 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 2: a bad number. I think that's where it belongs. Like, 769 00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:58,960 Speaker 2: I think that's the right number there. Now you should 770 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,080 Speaker 2: also see the Lakers number tick up a little bit 771 00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 2: because of that, because again, now you have a team 772 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,640 Speaker 2: that is much easier to see being a team that 773 00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,360 Speaker 2: can challenge them and beat them that numbers at three 774 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,280 Speaker 2: to fifty. Again, it was two fifty at the beginning 775 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 2: of the year. So I like the fact that I 776 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 2: could get an extra hundred basis points now on the Lakers, 777 00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,479 Speaker 2: because again, if the regular season doesn't matter other than 778 00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 2: to get into the playoffs, then really the season hasn't 779 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,520 Speaker 2: even started yet. So if you're gonna give me a 780 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 2: better odds on the Lakers now than I could have 781 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 2: got at the beginning of the season, I like that. 782 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:28,840 Speaker 2: The same thing goes in the opposite direction for the 783 00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 2: Utah Jazz. Like I said, thirty six hundred at the 784 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,840 Speaker 2: beginning of the season twenty four, you know, about a 785 00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 2: month into the season when I rode up and bet 786 00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,880 Speaker 2: on them. Now they're plus seven hundred. I can't take 787 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,440 Speaker 2: plus seven hundred. I can't take that number on the 788 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 2: Utah Jazz. For me to take it to Jazz right now, 789 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,360 Speaker 2: they probably have to be double that number. They'd have 790 00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,600 Speaker 2: to be twelve or fourteen hundred for me to be interested, 791 00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,760 Speaker 2: and they're not there right now. You could get the 792 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 2: Milwaukee Bucks in some places at eight nine hundred, maybe 793 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,600 Speaker 2: even like a thousand, depending on where you're looking. 794 00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 1: Well, the Bucks right now plus seven to fifties consensus number, 795 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 1: but I'm seeing eight. I'm seeing seven fifties. That's about 796 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,920 Speaker 1: where you're at right now for the most of the spots. 797 00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,520 Speaker 1: But now, do you think to a certain degree too, 798 00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 1: I mean, we're both old enough to remember last year 799 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,240 Speaker 1: when the Bucks were rolling and then COVID hit and 800 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 1: then the bubble did not treat them kindly. It was 801 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:17,920 Speaker 1: not a good look for them. So do you think 802 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,400 Speaker 1: that this Bucks team has shown you that they've kind 803 00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,320 Speaker 1: of either learned from this or are motivated to kind 804 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 1: of get passed last year? Because last year was a 805 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 1: huge disappointment for that. 806 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 2: So here's one of my favorite stats to look at. 807 00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:31,240 Speaker 2: One of my favorite stats to look at is the 808 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,920 Speaker 2: point differential that a team has, right, because what it 809 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,240 Speaker 2: does is it looks at what their offensive efficiency number 810 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,840 Speaker 2: is per one hundred possessions and their defensive efficiency per 811 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 2: one hundred possessions. So games are played at different paces, 812 00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:45,560 Speaker 2: so sometimes there's one hundred and ten possessions in a game. 813 00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:47,480 Speaker 2: Sometimes there's only ninety eight possessions in a game, but 814 00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:49,960 Speaker 2: it's usually somewhere a little above one hundred. So the 815 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 2: way you got to look at that is it doesn't 816 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 2: matter who you're playing against when it comes to pace. 817 00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:57,480 Speaker 2: If you're the team that's doing the most offensively per 818 00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:00,719 Speaker 2: one hundred and stopping the other team the most defensively, 819 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:02,560 Speaker 2: you're going to be in a lot of games. And 820 00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,880 Speaker 2: there are usually three to five teams every year that 821 00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 2: are in the top ten in both offensive efficiency and 822 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,160 Speaker 2: defensive efficiency. And these are teams that usually wind up 823 00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,040 Speaker 2: making deep runs. And this is the reason why I 824 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,760 Speaker 2: liked the Miami Heat last year because last year the 825 00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,680 Speaker 2: Miami Heat were a top ten team in offensive efficiency 826 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,600 Speaker 2: and a top ten team in defensive efficiency. The Milwaukee 827 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,480 Speaker 2: Bucks were two, and they lost to the Miami Heat, 828 00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,160 Speaker 2: another team who was what I call a due qualifier, 829 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,520 Speaker 2: and both of those things. The other team that was 830 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,840 Speaker 2: a due qualifier was the Boston Celtics, who was one 831 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:35,920 Speaker 2: of the other teams that was on the road for 832 00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 2: those teams to get to the finals. The Lakers weren't 833 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 2: last year, but they were eleventh overall in scoring, so 834 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,720 Speaker 2: they were like literally right on the outskirts of it. 835 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:45,840 Speaker 2: And they were one of the top defensive teams, so 836 00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 2: you can kind of make a little bit of an 837 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,560 Speaker 2: exception for them. But the teams that tend to make 838 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 2: the deepest runs are usually the ones that are good 839 00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 2: on offense and good on defense. The Milwaukee Bucks this 840 00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,360 Speaker 2: year are one of those teams that's a due qualifier. 841 00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 2: Top ten on defense, top ten on offense. Right now, 842 00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,040 Speaker 2: I think there's Eavington's fifth or fifth and seventh somewhere 843 00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 2: in there. But these are the teams that I have 844 00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 2: the most faith in because they can beat you multiple ways. 845 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:08,520 Speaker 2: They can go out and shut you down, hold you 846 00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,400 Speaker 2: to ninety five points, and even have a bad shooting 847 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:13,759 Speaker 2: game and win one oh one to ninety five. They're 848 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:15,440 Speaker 2: also the team that can get in attract, meet with you, 849 00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,200 Speaker 2: and beat you one twenty five to one to fifteen, 850 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:19,520 Speaker 2: and those are the kind of teams that usually make 851 00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:22,359 Speaker 2: the deep runs. Milwaukee being one of those teams this year. 852 00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:25,240 Speaker 2: Now could some of the other teams, like the Mets 853 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:26,920 Speaker 2: play no defense whatsoever. 854 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 3: Obviously doesn't hurt him in the regular season because they 855 00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,960 Speaker 3: have so much offense and they are the most efficient 856 00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:34,880 Speaker 3: or one of the most efficient offenses in the league, 857 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 3: but in a playoffs that comes back to haunt you 858 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:38,320 Speaker 3: if you're not playing any defense. 859 00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:40,880 Speaker 2: So there are chinks in that armor that you can 860 00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:45,239 Speaker 2: go against. The Sixers are the opposite great defensively. Offensively though, 861 00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,480 Speaker 2: they suck really outside of like Joelle and b dominating 862 00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:51,200 Speaker 2: and putting up forty point games. Like Ben Simmons is 863 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,400 Speaker 2: a very good facilitator, but he's not a great scorer. 864 00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,200 Speaker 2: You know, Tobias Harris is decent. And then you're talking 865 00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 2: about guys like Seth Curry and Shape Milton and you know, 866 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:01,360 Speaker 2: and I mean they're in there to like hit some 867 00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,839 Speaker 2: shots and feed some of these big guys, but they 868 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 2: don't have the offensive power that they can win those 869 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,759 Speaker 2: games when you know their defense isn't shutting teams down. 870 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,040 Speaker 2: Milwaukee is the team that could play either one of 871 00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,200 Speaker 2: those two ways and still wind up winning games. So 872 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,319 Speaker 2: that's why to me, that's the team that has the 873 00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:18,759 Speaker 2: most value out of all these teams here. 874 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:21,120 Speaker 1: All right, He's Benny Richardi. You can follow him on 875 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:24,200 Speaker 1: Twitter ed Benny R eleven and follow him because he 876 00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,280 Speaker 1: is a great follow and hilarious on Twitter and hilarious 877 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,000 Speaker 1: in real life. He's one of my good pals, and 878 00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,279 Speaker 1: I appreciate the time. Tell everybody what you got going 879 00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,160 Speaker 1: on to fade the noise right now? What's happening with you? 880 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know me, every day I am 881 00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:40,120 Speaker 2: pretty deep into the NBA prop bets at the moment. 882 00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,400 Speaker 2: That's kind of the angle that I'm taking and the 883 00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 2: angle that I've been, you know, the most in on 884 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 2: this season for NBA. So every day of the week, 885 00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:48,880 Speaker 2: I come out with the NBA prop video. So if 886 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:51,279 Speaker 2: you're somebody who likes prop bets, definitely get over to 887 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,880 Speaker 2: the FtM network YouTube page and check that out. And 888 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,600 Speaker 2: then again, FTN bets is the site that I'm the 889 00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,200 Speaker 2: head of content from, so between writing articles and Ye'll 890 00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,200 Speaker 2: get other people to get there are articles in on time. 891 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,600 Speaker 2: You can find all myself over there, because that's pretty 892 00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:05,440 Speaker 2: much how it goes in there. 893 00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,400 Speaker 1: You go, that's Benny Richardi, everybody, great stuff as always. 894 00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:11,239 Speaker 1: We hope everybody enjoys their NBA wagering. That'll do it 895 00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,200 Speaker 1: for us today, but the story of the game goes 896 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,200 Speaker 1: on for Benny Richardi. I'm Joey P. We'll see you 897 00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 1: next time. 898 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:17,000 Speaker 2: Kids,