WEBVTT - Surveillance: We Still Have Work To Do, Rep. Scalise Says

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley.

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<v Speaker 1>We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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<v Speaker 1>and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Jim

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<v Speaker 1>Glassman joins us of JP Morgan, who has given us

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<v Speaker 1>wonderful perspective over the years over jobs, over wages, and

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<v Speaker 1>over this quote a fully employed America. One of your charms,

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<v Speaker 1>Jim and your were way out front on this was

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<v Speaker 1>seeing help wanted signs outside businesses. Even I'm seeing them

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<v Speaker 1>now here in one zero zero two two. They're out there,

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<v Speaker 1>aren't they. They're all over the place. UM. I had

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<v Speaker 1>to travel a lot and talk to businesses that are

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<v Speaker 1>trying to manage things, and this is the number one

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<v Speaker 1>issue we're trying to find bow trying to figure out

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<v Speaker 1>how to retain them. There's some clever things going on

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<v Speaker 1>people are figuring out, like crazing their wages. Well, that

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<v Speaker 1>would be one thing, but there, for example, it's hard

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<v Speaker 1>to convince somebody give them a four one plan. Young

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<v Speaker 1>people don't care about retirement plans. But point there's forty two,

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<v Speaker 1>so student loans, student loans. Some of them are clever.

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<v Speaker 1>Ones are talking about paying help paying down student loans

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<v Speaker 1>for kids, like the nonprofits to do. And you get

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<v Speaker 1>that benefit as long as you stay at the company.

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<v Speaker 1>John and I, we're live in a rarefied atmosphere. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know if you know that, but okay, to to

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<v Speaker 1>all the people coast to coast, listen to this. Somebody's

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<v Speaker 1>making thirty eight five or forty two seven or whatever,

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<v Speaker 1>and they really need to get up three or four

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<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars. Why aren't those conversations happening in a sub

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<v Speaker 1>four percent America job economy. Yeah, it's it's interesting. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we're all. Anyone who grew up in the seventies and

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<v Speaker 1>eighties and saw how this worked is surprised by it.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think some of them is the problem is

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<v Speaker 1>businesses are opera it in the same competitive environment that

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<v Speaker 1>workers are. And I think businesses are just being really

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<v Speaker 1>cautious about this because they don't know whether they can

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<v Speaker 1>up their price. John jump in. I got my own theory. John,

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<v Speaker 1>jump in here, and see what I think. Jim is

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<v Speaker 1>touched on an important story that labor costs are going

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<v Speaker 1>up for the employer. It costs small to employ someone

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<v Speaker 1>in America. Now, there's a lot of benefits they pay

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<v Speaker 1>for healthcare. Healthcare is one of them, and workers don't

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<v Speaker 1>see that. And I keep asking people, well, why aren't

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<v Speaker 1>you showing that in your paycheck. I know what the

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<v Speaker 1>price of gas is that all my local gas stations.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't really know what my company pays for benefits

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<v Speaker 1>unless I go to the website. So it's not in

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<v Speaker 1>everyone's face, and they tend to think, well, if you've

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<v Speaker 1>got to pay more for my benefits, they don't tend

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<v Speaker 1>to think of that as a pay as they're part

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<v Speaker 1>of their pay. But it is from a company's point

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<v Speaker 1>of view. So it's that a structural change. Jim that

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<v Speaker 1>you just don't think he's being captured by the economic

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<v Speaker 1>diight set. No, it is captured. We watch it in

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<v Speaker 1>the employment cost index measures, for example. They capture a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of the cost of benefits. But I think for

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<v Speaker 1>the average worker, they don't see it. And what they

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<v Speaker 1>don't dan is why their employers maybe are being so cautious,

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<v Speaker 1>but maybe because they're not aware of what's going on

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<v Speaker 1>with health care costs and all the other benefits that

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<v Speaker 1>the companies pay for. Jim, let's talk about the week

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<v Speaker 1>ahead as well. Cp I retail sales and the chairman

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<v Speaker 1>Federals of Chairman j pal speaking likes this week as well.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the highlight for you out of those three things.

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<v Speaker 1>Retail sales I think are pretty impressive. Consumer trends are good.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the CPI, to me, what's what's valuable, what's

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<v Speaker 1>useful about what's going on with the dollar right now?

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<v Speaker 1>It's helping to damp in some of the worries about

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<v Speaker 1>inflation in the US. Maybe it's spreading it to your

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<v Speaker 1>it will shift it to Europe a little bit, and

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<v Speaker 1>and to China. But I think you know, of all

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<v Speaker 1>the things I worry about in my list of and

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<v Speaker 1>it's not a long list, the FED is not on

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<v Speaker 1>that list. Interesting why because all the FT's trying to

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<v Speaker 1>do is take their foot off the gas. And I

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<v Speaker 1>know people have gotten used to zero interest rates in

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<v Speaker 1>the last decade, but the fact is the FET is

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<v Speaker 1>really just trying to move things back to something more normal.

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<v Speaker 1>We never know what normal is, but they're not going

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<v Speaker 1>to go overboard, particularly with inflation. Well behaved, you'll you'll

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<v Speaker 1>know when the FED gets around and thinking about stepping

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<v Speaker 1>on the brakes. That's not our word, you know. I

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<v Speaker 1>know you thirty years ago were absolutely glued to what

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<v Speaker 1>bon Jovi was doing, and they had they had the

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<v Speaker 1>number one hear thirty years ago bat medicine. Okay, fine,

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<v Speaker 1>now you mentioned those of us from twenty and thirty

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<v Speaker 1>years ago. We're looking at this job economy and going, yeah, really,

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<v Speaker 1>I would suggest what's changed is the direct linkage of

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<v Speaker 1>bonus for executives to labor compensation. If they give labor

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<v Speaker 1>a wage, now they feel it comes directly out of

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<v Speaker 1>their large bonus compensation. Were thirty years ago, they didn't

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<v Speaker 1>have that structure. Yeah, that you know. I think the

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<v Speaker 1>bigger story, though, is innovation has been very disruptive for

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<v Speaker 1>their workface. So if you look at the what happened

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<v Speaker 1>to the share of income the goes to workers and

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<v Speaker 1>the share of it goes to profits and other things.

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<v Speaker 1>It really compressed back in the two decades ago, which

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<v Speaker 1>is why all of us economists are talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>superstar effect, the Amazon's you know, as all of us

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<v Speaker 1>go shopping on our phones. It's transformed retail sector. And

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<v Speaker 1>I really think it's innovation that is driving a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the challenges that workers face. Um and I think,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I don't know how you get around the

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<v Speaker 1>way to get around that as you've got to figure

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<v Speaker 1>out how to get people there. There are a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of new jobs that have opened up because of that,

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<v Speaker 1>but you gotta get it. Takes a lifetime sometimes to

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<v Speaker 1>prepare for that kind of stuff. Okay, Jim Blassman, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much. A good conversation here on on the

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<v Speaker 1>I get more mail John in this than anything else.

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<v Speaker 1>Kevin Book joining us now striding it's wrong with you?

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<v Speaker 1>Kevin Book joining us now, Clay, have you Energy Partners

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<v Speaker 1>head of research? Important? Seriously, what's important in Australia as

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<v Speaker 1>we look at as a US story the Stratis it

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<v Speaker 1>ran you know you're oil. Yeah, it's you know, you

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<v Speaker 1>make a joke about it, but it's a huge deal

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<v Speaker 1>away from West Texas Intermedia massively. Kevin Book joining us

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<v Speaker 1>now clear for you? Energy Partner's head of research, Kevin,

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<v Speaker 1>How have we gone from a situation where the Saudis

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<v Speaker 1>is saying, pump baby, pump two. Maybe we cut through

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<v Speaker 1>next year and we need it. Well, they're looking at

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<v Speaker 1>a seasonal blow basically first quarter is always weak for demand.

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<v Speaker 1>On top of that, you have currency adjusted prices hitting

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<v Speaker 1>some of the non dollar importers harder, weaker GDP, and

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<v Speaker 1>with that everybody pumping faster than ever expected, Russia rising

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<v Speaker 1>to the challenge the US UH boils coming out of

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<v Speaker 1>the premium basically on the backs of burrows, even though

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<v Speaker 1>pipelines aren't there to carry it. UH. And that's bringing

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of supply to the world. So they're looking

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<v Speaker 1>at a lush world. They're seeing some some price weakness. UH.

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<v Speaker 1>The question whether they really cut or whether they talked

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<v Speaker 1>about cutting is a different question. We kissed below seventy Brent,

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<v Speaker 1>the princes above seventy. Now, you know, words go far

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<v Speaker 1>in this world. I mean, Kevin, what's so important hereon?

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<v Speaker 1>And John brings it up with a discussion of Australian

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<v Speaker 1>in folks out of the Asia or aust Asian coverage

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<v Speaker 1>is very important in the New York Evening. But Kevin,

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<v Speaker 1>what is so important here is we forget about nations

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<v Speaker 1>like Australia that are completely dependent unimported oil. How are

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<v Speaker 1>they doing in this latest mix? Well, you know, it

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<v Speaker 1>depends on who's imported from where. If you were buying

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<v Speaker 1>your oil from Iran, you definitely have a different sort

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<v Speaker 1>of thinking to do. For India, you're talking about ten

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<v Speaker 1>or fifteen percent of imports. For China, you're in the

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<v Speaker 1>single digits. Really only Turkey massively exposed. For everyone else

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<v Speaker 1>buying oil on the open market, quality is the question,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's the question of whether you're going to get

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<v Speaker 1>the mediums that are going to be extremely tight as

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<v Speaker 1>the Iran oil sanctions ramp, or whether there's a there's

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<v Speaker 1>refineries that can make good use of light with distillate

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<v Speaker 1>demand being the thing that's leading the pail right now, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you're probably going to see less of a bid for

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<v Speaker 1>the light and see some of the margins compressed with

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<v Speaker 1>the distillate driving up the medium barrels. And John has

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<v Speaker 1>comes from a very smart article out of Sydney with

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<v Speaker 1>the conversation is a title of the blog. Fifty two

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<v Speaker 1>percent of imported petrol comes from Singapore, eighteen percent from

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<v Speaker 1>South Korea, twelve from Japan. Well, you know, like introit's

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<v Speaker 1>serious issue. Well, let's talk about some of the refining

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<v Speaker 1>demand in China. Kevin, It's really difficult to get a

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<v Speaker 1>few on what is happening with China at the moment,

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<v Speaker 1>because many people will tell you a story of a

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<v Speaker 1>slow down, deceleration and potentially weakening demand for commodities maybe

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<v Speaker 1>in the future. In the here and now, we're looking

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<v Speaker 1>at record crude demand arm WEA for some of the

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<v Speaker 1>private refiners. Yeah, this is first of all, it's the

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<v Speaker 1>opacity problem that I don't think we can circumvent here

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<v Speaker 1>from the States. Maybe with drones and lasers you can

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<v Speaker 1>do a better job of sighting China. But from from

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<v Speaker 1>our perspective, certainly very strong crude demand looking like strong

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<v Speaker 1>throughputs and not yet weakness. Uh, they are building reserves.

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<v Speaker 1>There's always a chance that some of those barrels went

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<v Speaker 1>into the ground and not into refineries. But right now

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<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing looks like a lot of refinery throughputs. So,

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<v Speaker 1>Kevin is three big stories that I think of really

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<v Speaker 1>pressured crude over the last month. One is the issue

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<v Speaker 1>with Saudi Arabia pumping a ton of crude, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of crude. The other issue is Iran and the waivers

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<v Speaker 1>that have actually been introduced to allow some of the

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<v Speaker 1>importers of Iranian crew to carry on importing Iranian crude,

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<v Speaker 1>and then the demand picture as well, which is becoming

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<v Speaker 1>increasingly much more of the concern on the margin as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Kevin off those three issues, what is the most important

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<v Speaker 1>issue right now for the your market? I think you

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<v Speaker 1>probably should focus on number three. Demand. At the start

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<v Speaker 1>of this year, we talked about the US driver flattening

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<v Speaker 1>out and declining on consumption, not because of price response,

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<v Speaker 1>but because of efficiency built into the fleet undercutting demand.

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<v Speaker 1>That's happening around the world. You have a more price

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<v Speaker 1>driven demand response the non O E c D buyers

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<v Speaker 1>they buy with GDP as it rises to As GDP slackens,

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<v Speaker 1>demand slackens, the O E c D buyers much more

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<v Speaker 1>price sensitive. But we're seeing increased price sensitivity in the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese consumption of crude and petroleum now as well, which

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<v Speaker 1>means that with a high currency adjusted import price, you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to see a relenting in Chinese demand eventually. Within

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<v Speaker 1>the eventually is what big oil does? I mean we

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<v Speaker 1>had I guess we had hopes for a whisper of

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<v Speaker 1>a hundred dollars a barrel. Bring it back from your

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<v Speaker 1>international relations study to what American big oil does. Are

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<v Speaker 1>they just assuming barrel oil? Can they actually set higher

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<v Speaker 1>different companies have different capital discipline. The engineers. Think of

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<v Speaker 1>the U S Oil companies as engineers. They build it

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<v Speaker 1>to run for a long time. Think of the international

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<v Speaker 1>super majors as traders, resource starved, prospecting into the world,

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<v Speaker 1>will trade anything, just make a margin? And think of

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<v Speaker 1>the U S, E and P s basically uh if

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<v Speaker 1>you will, as sort of the high risk, high profile,

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<v Speaker 1>high price, break even kind of companies. When you look

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<v Speaker 1>at this sort of the low end of the range

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<v Speaker 1>on the price range, you tend to see more durability

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<v Speaker 1>in the U S Super majors because they have break

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<v Speaker 1>even prices the blow end of the deck. That's been

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<v Speaker 1>a story and for the big these companies of a

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<v Speaker 1>just did so much in the last company years. We

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<v Speaker 1>caught up with Bob Dudley this morning and the brake

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<v Speaker 1>even I forget what he said specifically, but was in

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<v Speaker 1>and around sixty dollars. Sixty dollars Kevin. We've seen big changes,

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<v Speaker 1>haven't we. Oh yeah, I mean look the way that

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<v Speaker 1>you can look at the labor force, last tidy these

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<v Speaker 1>companies have they laid off, lots of folks still haven't

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<v Speaker 1>hired back. Some are doing reductions in force. Still they're

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<v Speaker 1>parrying all the way down every which way they can.

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<v Speaker 1>They're gearing up for a much a much tougher environment

0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:32.679
<v Speaker 1>than the one they're in right now. I should just

0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.320
<v Speaker 1>correct myself. Not the brake even, it's what they budget for,

0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:37.720
<v Speaker 1>and Kevin just to be specific about that. Not the

0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:41.040
<v Speaker 1>brake even, but just what they're budgeting up. It's changed

0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:46.040
<v Speaker 1>a healthy internal ready to return fives into that. What

0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:51.520
<v Speaker 1>is the international oil relations that our cabinet officers should

0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:53.760
<v Speaker 1>focus on. It's a run and run and run is

0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:56.440
<v Speaker 1>that the way to go? Or they too focused on

0:11:56.480 --> 0:11:59.599
<v Speaker 1>a run? Well, Iran is into an oil issue. I

0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:03.679
<v Speaker 1>runs nuclear proliferation and nucional terror issue. Um. But if

0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:05.480
<v Speaker 1>you want oil to come to market, you have to

0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:08.000
<v Speaker 1>think about not just Saudi Arabia but Russia. And I

0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:10.120
<v Speaker 1>think one of the stories that's under appreciated in the

0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:13.280
<v Speaker 1>last six months is that the Trump administration did go

0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:16.320
<v Speaker 1>to Russia and asked for more oil there as well. UH,

0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:19.560
<v Speaker 1>three pillars to the market US Saudi Russia can't have

0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:23.120
<v Speaker 1>an around policy that compresses buyers of ariding and crude

0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:27.640
<v Speaker 1>without it. I mean, does Mr Putin want to deliver

0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:31.040
<v Speaker 1>more oil he certainly doesn't seem to want to stop.

0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:33.760
<v Speaker 1>Market share is good on you know, if they're buying

0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:38.040
<v Speaker 1>services and in upstream costs in rubles and they're selling

0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:41.240
<v Speaker 1>in dollars, then the world of u S sanctions compressing

0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.080
<v Speaker 1>the ruble has been profitable for a lot of companies,

0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:47.200
<v Speaker 1>plus healthy taxation on the outbound. I think we're at

0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:50.280
<v Speaker 1>a pub Soviet record on we Haven for production. We

0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:53.360
<v Speaker 1>are then they show no signs of of wanting to

0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:58.840
<v Speaker 1>slack in anytime soon. Kevin, thank you, really smart, really

0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:04.120
<v Speaker 1>smart this morning, on this veteran's day. It is important

0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:08.800
<v Speaker 1>to speak to officials across this nation, and there's no

0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:13.000
<v Speaker 1>one within the Republican Party, particularly with the passing of

0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:16.640
<v Speaker 1>John McCain to speak to. And the gentleman from Louisiana,

0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:19.840
<v Speaker 1>Steve Scalise, is of course a Republican. He has focused

0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:23.000
<v Speaker 1>on a return to Congress, a lame duck Congress before

0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:27.280
<v Speaker 1>a new minority moment for his Republicans. He's in the running,

0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 1>of course Wednesday for leadership position. And we are honor

0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:34.640
<v Speaker 1>that the congressman visits us today. Back in the game,

0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.880
<v Speaker 1>one gunman, countless heroes in the fight for my life

0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:40.960
<v Speaker 1>and It's not the usual quick read. It is a

0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:45.560
<v Speaker 1>carefully written effort about what he went through after an

0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:49.320
<v Speaker 1>horrific shooting in Washington and farm more and always with

0:13:49.360 --> 0:13:53.319
<v Speaker 1>Steve Scalize the view forward as well, What is your

0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:58.440
<v Speaker 1>view forward, Congressman? Thank My view forward is is first

0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:01.319
<v Speaker 1>of all, to keep getting better. I I'm down to

0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:03.680
<v Speaker 1>one crutch now. I had to learn how to walk again,

0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:05.960
<v Speaker 1>and of course I talked about that in the book,

0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:09.559
<v Speaker 1>the whole process of going from almost dying to to now.

0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:12.120
<v Speaker 1>I had a scooter I needed to use to get

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:14.680
<v Speaker 1>around on, and I had two crutches. Now I'm down

0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:17.040
<v Speaker 1>to one crutch. And my next goal is to to

0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.080
<v Speaker 1>be able to walk again without without crutches. I'm not

0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:22.720
<v Speaker 1>sure if I'll be able to run again, but at least,

0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:25.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, I talked about this too, that it really

0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 1>focuses you in the things that are important in life,

0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:29.200
<v Speaker 1>you know. And I love my family. I get to

0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:31.800
<v Speaker 1>do do a lot more. I've been hunting a lot

0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:33.960
<v Speaker 1>more with my son, and you know, just spend a

0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:35.520
<v Speaker 1>lot a lot of times on the weekends in New

0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 1>Orleans with my family. And I love my job, and

0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 1>I was so honored to be able to get back

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.840
<v Speaker 1>to work in September last year too, you know, to

0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:45.600
<v Speaker 1>be in the middle of working with this president and

0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:47.960
<v Speaker 1>getting things done and you know, getting the country back

0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:49.800
<v Speaker 1>on track. It's it's a passion of mine and I

0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:53.000
<v Speaker 1>get to do that as well. The medical debate became

0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 1>important in this election, and not not that it came

0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:59.800
<v Speaker 1>out of nowhere, but certainly it became dominant across the

0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:03.200
<v Speaker 1>eland of this country. How many doctors and nurses at

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.840
<v Speaker 1>one given moment did you have around you? Did you

0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:08.440
<v Speaker 1>get over like twenty doctors and nurses at one time?

0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:11.720
<v Speaker 1>It was ad You talked about a team effort. I

0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:14.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, I had everybody from you know, all the

0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:17.920
<v Speaker 1>trauma surgeons that were at the Star Hospital, from Dr

0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:21.440
<v Speaker 1>Saven his old whole team there to uh my words,

0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:23.360
<v Speaker 1>Apedic Dr Gold, and I got to know them all

0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:26.200
<v Speaker 1>by name and um and then the wonderful nurses that's

0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:29.640
<v Speaker 1>the care of me too. Were there any Democrats there were,

0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:32.640
<v Speaker 1>and you know some of them, some of them would

0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:36.960
<v Speaker 1>share their political affiliation. They would ask if you know,

0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:39.000
<v Speaker 1>they would ask, you know, you would just talk along

0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:40.520
<v Speaker 1>the way. I mean, You've get you know, a lot

0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:44.040
<v Speaker 1>of conversations with people and um, you know, and just

0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:46.520
<v Speaker 1>one of the people. To me, it's not about what

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.800
<v Speaker 1>their affiliation is, it's you know, they did they were

0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:52.920
<v Speaker 1>incredible professionals, and uh it took great care of me.

0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:57.280
<v Speaker 1>And look my physical therapist and occupational therapists. Uh, they

0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:00.720
<v Speaker 1>did wonders and still put me on the steve. Like

0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:03.960
<v Speaker 1>a lot of Americans, I've been fortunate. I've avoided the

0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:09.240
<v Speaker 1>medical issue. You haven't. And how did it change your

0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:13.400
<v Speaker 1>perception of the healthcare debate in this country? You went

0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:18.160
<v Speaker 1>through the reality of our medical industry. How did it

0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:22.760
<v Speaker 1>change your view forward? You know, I've always been to

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:25.400
<v Speaker 1>the belief that we have the best medical delivery system

0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:28.600
<v Speaker 1>in the world, and it had some problems before Obamacare,

0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:32.200
<v Speaker 1>mostly related around cost and access. But for people whether

0:16:32.360 --> 0:16:34.760
<v Speaker 1>if you were on Medicare, you like Medicare, if you

0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:37.920
<v Speaker 1>had private insurance through your company, most people really liked

0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:41.440
<v Speaker 1>that coverage. It was you know, people that had to

0:16:41.440 --> 0:16:43.920
<v Speaker 1>go by on their own. There was no real marketplace,

0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:47.040
<v Speaker 1>and Medicaid was the most broken form of healthcare. So

0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:51.000
<v Speaker 1>Obamacare doubled down by literally dumping millions more people on Medicaid.

0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:54.440
<v Speaker 1>It took money away from Medicare, and then in the

0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:57.720
<v Speaker 1>private marketplace, you literally had no options, and so healthcare

0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:00.280
<v Speaker 1>got even more expensive. What I like to see us

0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:03.680
<v Speaker 1>get back to its a system of real free market competition.

0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:07.040
<v Speaker 1>There is no price transparency. Uh there. You know, there's

0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:10.600
<v Speaker 1>great medical professionals, but doctors shouldn't have to go check

0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:13.879
<v Speaker 1>with unelected bureaucrats in Washington to figure out how to

0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:16.800
<v Speaker 1>take care of their patients. We've got to get Washington

0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:19.879
<v Speaker 1>bureaucrats out of the way more. The paperwork that's involved

0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:22.960
<v Speaker 1>in healthcare is unbelievable. People are scared to death of

0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:25.760
<v Speaker 1>going to jail, so they spending time fill up paperwork

0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:29.440
<v Speaker 1>that they're not using taking care patients. You you come

0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:32.399
<v Speaker 1>from Louisiana, from the South, with their immense support, not

0:17:32.440 --> 0:17:37.000
<v Speaker 1>only in the military, but starting with the Marines as well.

0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:41.760
<v Speaker 1>I think I saw a media distillation of the president's

0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:46.720
<v Speaker 1>efforts in Paris this weekend. Can you distill for us

0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:50.520
<v Speaker 1>what the southern military of this nation thinks when a

0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:54.920
<v Speaker 1>president because of rain, because of exhaustion, whatever the excuses,

0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:58.440
<v Speaker 1>doesn't show up it below. I mean, that was an

0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:02.640
<v Speaker 1>extraordinary moment, but I want to know what Louisiana thought

0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:06.439
<v Speaker 1>of that. Well. First of all, the President has been

0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:09.880
<v Speaker 1>incredibly supportive our military. I see it on a regular basis.

0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:13.720
<v Speaker 1>Um from Look, the National World War Two Museum is

0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:17.119
<v Speaker 1>in New Orleans. We love our military. Yesterday was Veterans Day.

0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:20.199
<v Speaker 1>We were today we celebrated. But yes, we also have

0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:23.840
<v Speaker 1>the hundredth anniversary of Armistic WORL World War One, and

0:18:24.119 --> 0:18:27.600
<v Speaker 1>the President was very he went to the memorial. He's

0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:31.480
<v Speaker 1>to uh so many military ceremonies, and you know what

0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:34.959
<v Speaker 1>would happen in Paris. I know there there are some

0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:37.560
<v Speaker 1>of the European leaders that still don't want to acknowledge

0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:40.560
<v Speaker 1>that he's president United States and he is making our

0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:44.680
<v Speaker 1>NATO allies finally contribute to what they you know, to

0:18:44.800 --> 0:18:47.120
<v Speaker 1>what they were promising to do. And that's a good thing.

0:18:47.119 --> 0:18:51.840
<v Speaker 1>But look, the President attended the American Commemoration ceremony. Uh

0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:54.679
<v Speaker 1>in Look, he's been wonderful to our military. And by

0:18:54.680 --> 0:18:56.920
<v Speaker 1>the way, just signed a bill to get the largest

0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:59.600
<v Speaker 1>pay raise to our men and women in uniform that

0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:02.679
<v Speaker 1>they had years and and to give them the tools

0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:05.000
<v Speaker 1>they need. I mean, last year we lost more men

0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:08.160
<v Speaker 1>and women in uniform to training depths than the combat

0:19:08.200 --> 0:19:13.199
<v Speaker 1>depth before thin It's it's unreal. How many people. I mean,

0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:15.159
<v Speaker 1>you saw planes falling out of the sky because they

0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:18.480
<v Speaker 1>didn't have the training parts they needed because the military

0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:21.280
<v Speaker 1>was underfunded. And the President made it a point to

0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:23.760
<v Speaker 1>address that, and we in Congress passed to build to

0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:26.720
<v Speaker 1>fix that. Just a few months ago, the President funded

0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:28.840
<v Speaker 1>in the law. How are you going to respond to

0:19:28.880 --> 0:19:30.640
<v Speaker 1>this new Congress? You need to get through a lame

0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:34.159
<v Speaker 1>duck term and then you will enjoy being a minority

0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:36.520
<v Speaker 1>in the House. How does that change your data? Well?

0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:39.439
<v Speaker 1>What doce that enjoy being in the minority. But you know,

0:19:39.480 --> 0:19:41.520
<v Speaker 1>we still have some work to do in these last

0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:44.000
<v Speaker 1>few months in the majority. And what are you gonna do?

0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:46.280
<v Speaker 1>What are you gonna do in this lame duck session.

0:19:47.040 --> 0:19:49.280
<v Speaker 1>The first thing we've got to do is address funding

0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:52.720
<v Speaker 1>of the wall. My strongest support securing our border and

0:19:53.320 --> 0:19:56.560
<v Speaker 1>building the wall and using other technology to to make

0:19:56.560 --> 0:19:59.960
<v Speaker 1>America safe and to give the president to the president

0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:03.840
<v Speaker 1>get that through the Senate. Well, you know that the

0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:06.000
<v Speaker 1>House is gonna do its job and let the Senate

0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:09.159
<v Speaker 1>do its job. And you know the the Senate's got

0:20:09.200 --> 0:20:10.480
<v Speaker 1>a lot of issues they're gonna have to deal with.

0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:11.879
<v Speaker 1>But we've got to deal with ours. By the way,

0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:15.200
<v Speaker 1>we also have a farm bill that hasn't been resolved.

0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:17.880
<v Speaker 1>We have a negotiation going on on a conference committee

0:20:17.880 --> 0:20:20.800
<v Speaker 1>on a farm bill. The biggest issue that's that's still

0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:23.040
<v Speaker 1>out there and it hasn't been resolved as work requirements.

0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:24.879
<v Speaker 1>And frankly, I think in a time when you see

0:20:25.160 --> 0:20:27.400
<v Speaker 1>such a great economy, I mean, they're more job openings

0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:30.040
<v Speaker 1>than people looking for work, and yet we're paying people

0:20:30.040 --> 0:20:33.199
<v Speaker 1>not to work who are fully able bodied. So in

0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:35.200
<v Speaker 1>the farm bill, one of the things we say is, look,

0:20:35.720 --> 0:20:38.719
<v Speaker 1>if you're able to work, then you have to go

0:20:38.760 --> 0:20:40.720
<v Speaker 1>look for a job, and if there's one out there

0:20:40.720 --> 0:20:42.800
<v Speaker 1>for you, you you have to take it. Otherwise you're not

0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:46.080
<v Speaker 1>eligible to keep getting uh food stamps and other kind

0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:48.240
<v Speaker 1>of welfare benefits. And by the way, if you can't

0:20:48.240 --> 0:20:50.480
<v Speaker 1>find a job, will train you for a job. But

0:20:50.640 --> 0:20:52.720
<v Speaker 1>you can't just sit at home. I mean, in America,

0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:55.159
<v Speaker 1>you have the right not to want to work, but

0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:58.240
<v Speaker 1>the taxpayers in this country shouldn't subsidize you for that.

0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:00.639
<v Speaker 1>If there's a job waiting for you, and right now

0:21:00.680 --> 0:21:03.720
<v Speaker 1>there are more job openings than are people looking for work,

0:21:03.920 --> 0:21:06.320
<v Speaker 1>let's fix this. Let's get people back into the workforce

0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:09.159
<v Speaker 1>and help restore the dignity of work in the American

0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:11.800
<v Speaker 1>dream to people. Steve Scillies, thank you so much. The

0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:15.080
<v Speaker 1>book is back in the game. One gunman, countless heroes

0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:19.600
<v Speaker 1>in the fight for my life. Congressman Steve Scalise joining

0:21:19.640 --> 0:21:23.080
<v Speaker 1>us today, of course always from Louisiana, and of course

0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:26.160
<v Speaker 1>some real comments there on his medical condition as well.

0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:31.199
<v Speaker 1>Right now with this prim uh as we look at

0:21:31.240 --> 0:21:34.199
<v Speaker 1>fixed income with t d UH securities pre A good

0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:38.240
<v Speaker 1>morning morning, Thanks for having me on. We are closed

0:21:38.280 --> 0:21:40.680
<v Speaker 1>today and you are working away, and I'm sure you're

0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:43.800
<v Speaker 1>working on a theme or a movement into next year.

0:21:43.840 --> 0:21:47.280
<v Speaker 1>We're at that point where people like Priam Isra put together,

0:21:48.000 --> 0:21:51.119
<v Speaker 1>UH the year forward view. What do you do after

0:21:51.160 --> 0:21:54.520
<v Speaker 1>the curve flattening of this year, what's the theme that

0:21:54.560 --> 0:21:59.320
<v Speaker 1>you'll be focusing on into January to June. Sure, so

0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:02.440
<v Speaker 1>you're right, I am working on our twenty outlook. UM.

0:22:02.480 --> 0:22:05.040
<v Speaker 1>I think the theme is less about curve and more

0:22:05.040 --> 0:22:08.200
<v Speaker 1>about duration, because what we've seen this year is the

0:22:08.200 --> 0:22:13.240
<v Speaker 1>the the US sort of outperformed, so there's been significant divergence.

0:22:13.359 --> 0:22:15.600
<v Speaker 1>US interest rates have risen the FED hike more than

0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:19.040
<v Speaker 1>what was priced in Now going into the markets pricing

0:22:19.080 --> 0:22:22.679
<v Speaker 1>in two hikes. The FED is communicating three, but in

0:22:22.720 --> 0:22:25.400
<v Speaker 1>an environment where global growth is slowing and we don't

0:22:25.440 --> 0:22:29.159
<v Speaker 1>see any congressional actions, so no further fiscal stimulus. You

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:32.560
<v Speaker 1>have a fiscal cliff coming up late nineteen into early twenty.

0:22:33.320 --> 0:22:35.600
<v Speaker 1>My fear is that we've sort of seen the peak

0:22:35.640 --> 0:22:37.560
<v Speaker 1>and yields. I mean, you know, we could certainly go

0:22:37.680 --> 0:22:40.200
<v Speaker 1>up a little bit more, so three thirties what we're

0:22:40.240 --> 0:22:42.200
<v Speaker 1>looking at, but you know, if you get to three

0:22:42.240 --> 0:22:45.199
<v Speaker 1>thirty three forty, I think that's a good time to

0:22:45.240 --> 0:22:47.679
<v Speaker 1>go long duration. So the question is really how do

0:22:47.720 --> 0:22:50.960
<v Speaker 1>you start scaling into long duration trades here? Which is

0:22:51.000 --> 0:22:53.399
<v Speaker 1>a little out of consensus. I think most people are

0:22:53.440 --> 0:22:56.320
<v Speaker 1>looking at US economy that's doing well, but I still

0:22:56.320 --> 0:22:59.359
<v Speaker 1>look at you know, how long can this growth momentum last?

0:22:59.520 --> 0:23:02.919
<v Speaker 1>If the tax stimulus effect starts to feed and we

0:23:02.960 --> 0:23:06.320
<v Speaker 1>start to see some impact from higher interest rates impacting housing,

0:23:06.560 --> 0:23:10.920
<v Speaker 1>impacting other interest sensitive sectors, and then I look abroad

0:23:11.200 --> 0:23:14.680
<v Speaker 1>for any help there. And I think global growth is decelerating.

0:23:15.040 --> 0:23:17.200
<v Speaker 1>I think that's the one clear trend. So I don't

0:23:17.240 --> 0:23:20.280
<v Speaker 1>think we're going to continue to diverge, certainly as implications

0:23:20.280 --> 0:23:22.840
<v Speaker 1>for effects. But I think for rates, there's going to

0:23:22.920 --> 0:23:25.520
<v Speaker 1>be a time to go long duration, uh, you know,

0:23:25.560 --> 0:23:29.720
<v Speaker 1>pretty soon. I think if that's the case, for investors

0:23:29.760 --> 0:23:34.520
<v Speaker 1>that are more more inclined to accept risk, do you

0:23:34.560 --> 0:23:37.199
<v Speaker 1>believe that there will be a risk on field to

0:23:37.280 --> 0:23:41.720
<v Speaker 1>the market because with interest rates peaking, people are going

0:23:41.760 --> 0:23:44.119
<v Speaker 1>to recognize they're not going to get more by putting

0:23:44.119 --> 0:23:45.760
<v Speaker 1>their money into bonds, and they're going to have to

0:23:45.760 --> 0:23:48.600
<v Speaker 1>find riskier assets in order to generate the returns they

0:23:48.640 --> 0:23:52.399
<v Speaker 1>need to keep their clients. That's a fair point. I

0:23:52.400 --> 0:23:55.320
<v Speaker 1>think when it's clear that interest rates are bottoming that

0:23:55.440 --> 0:23:58.400
<v Speaker 1>the economy is okay. I'm a little nervous around risk

0:23:58.520 --> 0:24:00.680
<v Speaker 1>just here because I think we've eased in a lot

0:24:00.720 --> 0:24:03.400
<v Speaker 1>of good news in the equity market or or in

0:24:03.440 --> 0:24:07.200
<v Speaker 1>general risk asses. So by the time the market reprices

0:24:07.280 --> 0:24:10.080
<v Speaker 1>and we realize that actually growth is decelerating, but we're

0:24:10.119 --> 0:24:12.040
<v Speaker 1>not falling off a cliff, I think that will be

0:24:12.080 --> 0:24:14.600
<v Speaker 1>a time to go long risk in the near term.

0:24:14.640 --> 0:24:17.639
<v Speaker 1>With the FED sort of on autopilot here almost, I

0:24:17.680 --> 0:24:20.000
<v Speaker 1>think risk asttes have a bit of a headwind our

0:24:20.040 --> 0:24:25.400
<v Speaker 1>bonds as data dependent is the FED. Yeah, I think

0:24:25.440 --> 0:24:28.320
<v Speaker 1>bonds are maybe a little bit more forward looking than

0:24:28.359 --> 0:24:29.720
<v Speaker 1>the FED. And you know, the FED is in a

0:24:29.800 --> 0:24:31.520
<v Speaker 1>bit of a tough spot because they have to look

0:24:31.520 --> 0:24:35.159
<v Speaker 1>at US data, and you know, the the US economy

0:24:35.160 --> 0:24:37.000
<v Speaker 1>seems to be doing pretty well. I think what the

0:24:37.040 --> 0:24:39.920
<v Speaker 1>bond market is telling you by not pricing and more

0:24:40.000 --> 0:24:43.240
<v Speaker 1>hikes there are zero hikes price into is telling you

0:24:43.280 --> 0:24:45.480
<v Speaker 1>that the bond market doesn't believe that the economy can

0:24:45.520 --> 0:24:48.360
<v Speaker 1>continue to accelerate here. So I think, you know, you're

0:24:48.440 --> 0:24:50.800
<v Speaker 1>you're getting a little bit more of a forward looking view.

0:24:51.240 --> 0:24:55.400
<v Speaker 1>But I think Paul's comments will be pretty significant this week.

0:24:56.000 --> 0:24:59.600
<v Speaker 1>Um On on Wednesday, pretty miserable of this, really quite

0:24:59.640 --> 0:25:04.520
<v Speaker 1>advan by her perspective. Out the time function one year,

0:25:04.600 --> 0:25:07.399
<v Speaker 1>two years, five years. Rarely pre that we talked about

0:25:08.040 --> 0:25:12.240
<v Speaker 1>three months paper or three day paper. This year out

0:25:12.320 --> 0:25:14.600
<v Speaker 1>of two thousand and eight we began to speak of

0:25:14.720 --> 0:25:18.440
<v Speaker 1>library again. Let's talk about first principles. What is libor

0:25:18.760 --> 0:25:22.919
<v Speaker 1>and why did it reassert itself this year? Sure? So

0:25:23.520 --> 0:25:28.320
<v Speaker 1>library um is supposed to measure the cost of unsecured borrowing,

0:25:28.960 --> 0:25:32.560
<v Speaker 1>and you know it's it's it's a measure of I guess,

0:25:32.600 --> 0:25:35.719
<v Speaker 1>I guess funding costs for the financial system. The reason

0:25:35.920 --> 0:25:37.919
<v Speaker 1>it became a big deal this year was the spread

0:25:37.960 --> 0:25:41.720
<v Speaker 1>between Library and FED funds or OIS widened significantly in

0:25:41.760 --> 0:25:45.200
<v Speaker 1>the first quarter. It started to widen again. Now seasonally,

0:25:45.200 --> 0:25:47.680
<v Speaker 1>I would say that going into urine, going into quarter

0:25:47.800 --> 0:25:50.600
<v Speaker 1>and it does tend to widen. But the big move

0:25:50.920 --> 0:25:53.199
<v Speaker 1>in the first quarter this year was I think in

0:25:53.280 --> 0:25:56.160
<v Speaker 1>part due to a significant amount of bill supply as

0:25:56.160 --> 0:25:59.919
<v Speaker 1>well as repatriation um so the fact that a lot

0:26:00.040 --> 0:26:03.040
<v Speaker 1>of companies were moving cash back to the US. They

0:26:03.040 --> 0:26:05.199
<v Speaker 1>were not investing in bank paper, so the cost of

0:26:05.200 --> 0:26:08.359
<v Speaker 1>bank funding went up. But separately, I think what's happening

0:26:08.440 --> 0:26:12.160
<v Speaker 1>is that the FED and global bank regulators are telling

0:26:12.240 --> 0:26:14.600
<v Speaker 1>us to move away from libror. So that's a theme

0:26:14.640 --> 0:26:17.200
<v Speaker 1>we'll be talking about for the next many years. I'm

0:26:17.200 --> 0:26:21.119
<v Speaker 1>not sure the two twenty one is the ultimate endpoint

0:26:21.160 --> 0:26:23.679
<v Speaker 1>of LIBRARY, but they're trying to transition us away from it.

0:26:23.960 --> 0:26:27.199
<v Speaker 1>Commercial paper used to be a thermometer. I think it's gone.

0:26:27.480 --> 0:26:30.360
<v Speaker 1>What do you use to measure trust in the short

0:26:30.480 --> 0:26:35.080
<v Speaker 1>term paper market? You're right, I think CP issuance has

0:26:35.200 --> 0:26:38.040
<v Speaker 1>has gone down, But you know, we would look at CDs.

0:26:38.520 --> 0:26:41.800
<v Speaker 1>I think bank CDs is one measure. Um You look

0:26:41.800 --> 0:26:45.200
<v Speaker 1>at trading volumes to some extent in the euro the market,

0:26:45.240 --> 0:26:47.040
<v Speaker 1>I think you can look at the front end. The

0:26:47.040 --> 0:26:50.320
<v Speaker 1>thing is that's been significant increase in bank reserves in

0:26:50.359 --> 0:26:53.240
<v Speaker 1>the US, so banks don't really need to borrow a

0:26:53.240 --> 0:26:55.840
<v Speaker 1>whole lot. So I also look at the spread between

0:26:55.880 --> 0:26:59.119
<v Speaker 1>effective and UM and I U R. That's a measure of,

0:26:59.160 --> 0:27:02.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, our our reserves becoming scarce here, and then

0:27:02.400 --> 0:27:04.600
<v Speaker 1>that can become an issue. I think for bank funding.

0:27:04.920 --> 0:27:07.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't think we're there yet. Another six or nine

0:27:07.160 --> 0:27:09.159
<v Speaker 1>months from here, I think that could become an issue.

0:27:10.000 --> 0:27:12.840
<v Speaker 1>Do you believe that there's a dollar shortage, that there's

0:27:12.880 --> 0:27:16.960
<v Speaker 1>a lack of liquidity compared to let's say two years ago.

0:27:18.480 --> 0:27:20.919
<v Speaker 1>I think in two year end they always is. So

0:27:20.920 --> 0:27:22.920
<v Speaker 1>there's some of that going on. But but the big

0:27:22.920 --> 0:27:25.240
<v Speaker 1>difference from two years ago is two years ago, the

0:27:25.240 --> 0:27:28.159
<v Speaker 1>FED was actually infusing reserves in the system. Now the

0:27:28.200 --> 0:27:30.920
<v Speaker 1>set is actually letting it run off. So I think

0:27:31.119 --> 0:27:34.520
<v Speaker 1>there is the starting signs, the early signs that there

0:27:34.560 --> 0:27:37.480
<v Speaker 1>is a dollar shortages showing up in the FED funds market.

0:27:38.240 --> 0:27:40.320
<v Speaker 1>The FED seems to be somewhat in denial here. I

0:27:40.320 --> 0:27:42.640
<v Speaker 1>think they want to continue to let the portfolio run off.

0:27:42.800 --> 0:27:45.160
<v Speaker 1>They don't think this is systemic enough. So I think

0:27:45.200 --> 0:27:49.600
<v Speaker 1>this team will will persist, will actually accelerate as reserves

0:27:49.640 --> 0:27:53.240
<v Speaker 1>become more and more scarce in the banking system. Are

0:27:53.359 --> 0:27:58.000
<v Speaker 1>banks prepared for this? Um? I think it's very hard

0:27:58.080 --> 0:28:01.440
<v Speaker 1>to be prepared. Historic there were no access reserves in

0:28:01.480 --> 0:28:04.080
<v Speaker 1>the system, but historically the FED never paid any interest

0:28:04.119 --> 0:28:07.760
<v Speaker 1>on reserves. Also, historically we never had li could recoverage ratio.

0:28:08.080 --> 0:28:10.479
<v Speaker 1>So I think banks are having to look at their

0:28:10.640 --> 0:28:13.000
<v Speaker 1>h q l A or the high quality liquid acid

0:28:13.000 --> 0:28:16.080
<v Speaker 1>portfolio now and say that, well, the reserve component is

0:28:16.119 --> 0:28:18.560
<v Speaker 1>going to come off. So then how are they supposed

0:28:18.600 --> 0:28:22.359
<v Speaker 1>to replace these reserves? Is it through buying treasuries? Is

0:28:22.400 --> 0:28:25.000
<v Speaker 1>it through you know, mortgages? So I think they go,

0:28:25.040 --> 0:28:28.000
<v Speaker 1>what do you think they do? I think they will

0:28:28.040 --> 0:28:30.840
<v Speaker 1>have to buy some treasuries um and they'll do more

0:28:30.840 --> 0:28:33.280
<v Speaker 1>borrowing from the homeland bank system, which is why I

0:28:33.280 --> 0:28:36.760
<v Speaker 1>think the effective FED funds rate will continue to move higher. Ultimately,

0:28:36.800 --> 0:28:39.000
<v Speaker 1>the Fed will have to acknowledge that they can't let

0:28:39.040 --> 0:28:45.160
<v Speaker 1>the portfolio run off for much longer. When I look

0:28:45.160 --> 0:28:47.760
<v Speaker 1>at the bond market, it just used to be simple.

0:28:47.800 --> 0:28:51.240
<v Speaker 1>You clipped a coupon and there was a real rate return.

0:28:51.320 --> 0:28:54.120
<v Speaker 1>Whatever the coupon was, you knew you were making money.

0:28:54.120 --> 0:28:56.880
<v Speaker 1>We're miles from that, particularly in Europe. I mean, just

0:28:57.040 --> 0:29:00.080
<v Speaker 1>the is of negative rates and all that. Do you

0:29:00.120 --> 0:29:03.440
<v Speaker 1>just assume a permanence to the oddities of your world

0:29:03.880 --> 0:29:06.040
<v Speaker 1>or can we get back to where somebody clipped a

0:29:06.120 --> 0:29:10.160
<v Speaker 1>coupon and actually knew they made a nominal or inflation

0:29:10.200 --> 0:29:14.520
<v Speaker 1>adjusted return. Yeah, I think. You know, if you do

0:29:14.600 --> 0:29:17.800
<v Speaker 1>get a pickup in productivity or structural growth, I think

0:29:17.840 --> 0:29:21.600
<v Speaker 1>then this idea of getting positive real returns will come back.

0:29:22.040 --> 0:29:25.000
<v Speaker 1>The problem is when you look at long term structural

0:29:25.080 --> 0:29:28.280
<v Speaker 1>drivers of growth, demographics are not looking great, so that

0:29:28.360 --> 0:29:31.520
<v Speaker 1>so that's not going to help us. I'm hoping personally

0:29:31.520 --> 0:29:33.920
<v Speaker 1>that there is a pickup in productivity. We just haven't

0:29:33.920 --> 0:29:35.920
<v Speaker 1>seen that data. So then you look at if you've

0:29:35.960 --> 0:29:38.720
<v Speaker 1>been a low real rate environment, where are we getting

0:29:38.720 --> 0:29:40.800
<v Speaker 1>more real rates? I think the US is actually giving

0:29:40.800 --> 0:29:43.239
<v Speaker 1>you one of the highest real rates out there in

0:29:43.280 --> 0:29:46.120
<v Speaker 1>the developer. I mean, I'm looking at the five year

0:29:46.200 --> 0:29:49.600
<v Speaker 1>real rate pim Fox and back in the sixties it

0:29:49.680 --> 0:29:51.360
<v Speaker 1>was you know, the two percent, and there was a

0:29:51.360 --> 0:29:56.200
<v Speaker 1>big balloon in es. Yeah, the nineties given all the

0:29:56.240 --> 0:29:59.240
<v Speaker 1>distortions it was. You know, you clipped your coupon in

0:29:59.280 --> 0:30:01.560
<v Speaker 1>the nineties and you made a read don't even know

0:30:01.640 --> 0:30:05.000
<v Speaker 1>what scissors are anymore time? Well I know that, Come on,

0:30:05.080 --> 0:30:10.880
<v Speaker 1>you CLiPPA a preer. Save us or save me right now.

0:30:11.000 --> 0:30:13.480
<v Speaker 1>If there is going to be a dollar shortage on

0:30:13.560 --> 0:30:17.040
<v Speaker 1>some level, or there's going to be a lack or

0:30:17.440 --> 0:30:21.080
<v Speaker 1>a slackening of liquidity, what is the best thing for

0:30:21.120 --> 0:30:23.720
<v Speaker 1>an investor to do. Sit on the sidelines and wait

0:30:23.720 --> 0:30:26.400
<v Speaker 1>and see what happens, or do you want to be

0:30:26.480 --> 0:30:30.120
<v Speaker 1>in there and be a seller? Um, you know for

0:30:30.120 --> 0:30:33.400
<v Speaker 1>a risk I'm somewhat biased negatively, so I would say

0:30:33.440 --> 0:30:35.920
<v Speaker 1>be a seller in sixth income. I think you don't

0:30:35.920 --> 0:30:37.360
<v Speaker 1>have to go you don't have to take on a

0:30:37.360 --> 0:30:40.080
<v Speaker 1>whole lot of risk to get some positive real returns.

0:30:40.160 --> 0:30:42.080
<v Speaker 1>So if you have three months basally built, you know,

0:30:42.080 --> 0:30:44.760
<v Speaker 1>don't talk about real rates, you're actually getting some real rate.

0:30:45.040 --> 0:30:47.600
<v Speaker 1>I would tasty in the front end you can get

0:30:47.600 --> 0:30:51.120
<v Speaker 1>back into risk at much better levels. Well, okay, I'm

0:30:51.160 --> 0:30:53.480
<v Speaker 1>an opinion down on that. Where's the much better level

0:30:53.480 --> 0:30:56.240
<v Speaker 1>in the tenure yield? I mean, is a twenty basis

0:30:56.240 --> 0:30:58.720
<v Speaker 1>points higher or is it you know X number of

0:30:58.720 --> 0:31:02.520
<v Speaker 1>federate increases high. Yeah. I think when the FED is

0:31:03.200 --> 0:31:06.040
<v Speaker 1>at neutrons on another two hikes, I think we will

0:31:06.080 --> 0:31:08.600
<v Speaker 1>get us to neutral to seventy five or make the

0:31:08.680 --> 0:31:10.600
<v Speaker 1>sent on the funds rate. I think you're supposed to

0:31:10.600 --> 0:31:13.080
<v Speaker 1>extend out in duration because that's the point where the

0:31:13.160 --> 0:31:15.880
<v Speaker 1>recession looks a lot more inevitable. So you know, you're

0:31:15.880 --> 0:31:18.720
<v Speaker 1>probably another twenty based points away from the tenure, but

0:31:18.960 --> 0:31:21.160
<v Speaker 1>you know right now you're getting a decent pickup in

0:31:21.400 --> 0:31:23.760
<v Speaker 1>the very front end itself. Real rates in the front end.

0:31:24.040 --> 0:31:26.800
<v Speaker 1>This has been hugely informative. Premier, thank you so much.

0:31:26.840 --> 0:31:30.840
<v Speaker 1>It's amazing PIM on the bond market. Pre Amisser TV Securities.

0:31:32.880 --> 0:31:35.280
<v Speaker 1>This is a joy more than a one year visit

0:31:35.320 --> 0:31:38.800
<v Speaker 1>with Tyler Burle who runs Monocle and IF Monaco Radio,

0:31:38.880 --> 0:31:41.240
<v Speaker 1>and I've appeared on that of course, particularly with visits

0:31:41.280 --> 0:31:47.080
<v Speaker 1>to Davos, but also the hugely successful Monocle magazine, which

0:31:47.120 --> 0:31:50.880
<v Speaker 1>PIM is one of the magazines that sustains and gets thicker.

0:31:50.960 --> 0:31:54.760
<v Speaker 1>The physical thing is something people. It's been a published

0:31:55.000 --> 0:31:58.440
<v Speaker 1>success has inked to it and a lot of intellig

0:31:59.720 --> 0:32:04.360
<v Speaker 1>whether and celebration from Paris of his UH nine danual,

0:32:04.520 --> 0:32:08.960
<v Speaker 1>I believe it's Nindaniel Yes nin Danial soft power survey.

0:32:09.240 --> 0:32:12.800
<v Speaker 1>Tyler talk with why it's so important? What does soft

0:32:12.840 --> 0:32:20.520
<v Speaker 1>power serving? What does that mean? Soft power? Classical definition? Tom,

0:32:20.520 --> 0:32:23.040
<v Speaker 1>And good morning Pim. Pim has been forever since we

0:32:23.160 --> 0:32:25.600
<v Speaker 1>we've chatted, Tom, Pim never invites me around when I'm

0:32:25.600 --> 0:32:29.000
<v Speaker 1>in New York anymore. But anyway, that's that's the side issue. Um.

0:32:29.280 --> 0:32:31.520
<v Speaker 1>If you look at it in sort of very classic terms,

0:32:31.520 --> 0:32:34.560
<v Speaker 1>it's it's, yeah, it's getting your way as a nation

0:32:34.680 --> 0:32:38.440
<v Speaker 1>without having to use uh force, without having to to

0:32:38.480 --> 0:32:41.320
<v Speaker 1>write a check. Uh. It's how do you have global

0:32:41.400 --> 0:32:45.520
<v Speaker 1>influence as a nation through the private sector because you've

0:32:45.520 --> 0:32:50.080
<v Speaker 1>got strong national brands, a combination of public and private sector,

0:32:50.160 --> 0:32:53.960
<v Speaker 1>because you have a strong cultural offering, because you've got

0:32:53.960 --> 0:32:57.360
<v Speaker 1>great sports teams, all of these other elements outside of

0:32:57.760 --> 0:33:00.440
<v Speaker 1>the core political sphere. The kid that give you have

0:33:00.800 --> 0:33:03.240
<v Speaker 1>on the world stage. And what's so important, folks, and

0:33:03.280 --> 0:33:06.360
<v Speaker 1>why people are glued to this within media and with

0:33:06.480 --> 0:33:11.560
<v Speaker 1>advertising and also within just global consumption and imagery is

0:33:11.600 --> 0:33:16.360
<v Speaker 1>the Tyler brulet. Green arrows up, red arrows down. Tyler,

0:33:16.440 --> 0:33:18.600
<v Speaker 1>let's begin with the simple idea and the tension of

0:33:18.640 --> 0:33:27.440
<v Speaker 1>the weekend France green arrow up, US red arrowed down. Discuss. Yeah,

0:33:27.520 --> 0:33:31.120
<v Speaker 1>well you will recall um as recently, as as two

0:33:31.200 --> 0:33:35.720
<v Speaker 1>years ago. Uh, United States is in the number one position. Uh.

0:33:35.840 --> 0:33:38.600
<v Speaker 1>You had a series of great stories, even though of

0:33:38.600 --> 0:33:41.160
<v Speaker 1>course we were we were on the even of an

0:33:41.200 --> 0:33:45.040
<v Speaker 1>election result. Nevertheless, if you look at the power of Hollywood,

0:33:45.040 --> 0:33:47.720
<v Speaker 1>if you look at the power of the US charts

0:33:47.800 --> 0:33:51.360
<v Speaker 1>at that time, if you looked at US brands abroad.

0:33:51.560 --> 0:33:53.880
<v Speaker 1>I think at that time, Tom and Tim we were

0:33:53.880 --> 0:33:56.200
<v Speaker 1>looking at, you know, the expansion of what you know,

0:33:56.280 --> 0:33:59.240
<v Speaker 1>Hyatt was doing, Marriott bringing their brands around the world.

0:33:59.440 --> 0:34:02.520
<v Speaker 1>All of the things are very important. Um. You know,

0:34:02.680 --> 0:34:05.600
<v Speaker 1>now we're in a very different place. Um. You know,

0:34:05.600 --> 0:34:07.959
<v Speaker 1>there's some good things happening on the US West Coast.

0:34:08.400 --> 0:34:11.040
<v Speaker 1>There's certainly some interesting music things happening. But one thing,

0:34:11.080 --> 0:34:12.799
<v Speaker 1>you know, we were chatting but Tom this morning is

0:34:13.120 --> 0:34:15.279
<v Speaker 1>I look at retail and I'm I'm gentlemen, I'm standing

0:34:15.320 --> 0:34:17.800
<v Speaker 1>in the middle of Plas von Dome right now, and

0:34:17.800 --> 0:34:20.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, I'm surrounded by the likes of Chanel and

0:34:20.960 --> 0:34:23.719
<v Speaker 1>van Cliff and show May and Hublo and all of

0:34:23.760 --> 0:34:27.319
<v Speaker 1>these you know, international brands, and it's interesting. You know,

0:34:27.520 --> 0:34:30.520
<v Speaker 1>the US doesn't get a look in. And if we

0:34:30.560 --> 0:34:32.560
<v Speaker 1>look at global growth right now, if we look at

0:34:32.560 --> 0:34:35.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, what is the interesting part of international retail.

0:34:35.840 --> 0:34:37.960
<v Speaker 1>You know, we focus on China, we focus on Asia.

0:34:38.320 --> 0:34:40.799
<v Speaker 1>It's the big play there is it's a premium play.

0:34:40.840 --> 0:34:43.239
<v Speaker 1>We're not looking at at at a mid market or

0:34:43.239 --> 0:34:45.719
<v Speaker 1>map play. It's the top end of the market. And

0:34:45.760 --> 0:34:48.400
<v Speaker 1>who owns all of these brands, whether they're Italian based

0:34:48.480 --> 0:34:51.800
<v Speaker 1>or Swiss based, Trance these are these are French brands

0:34:51.800 --> 0:34:54.759
<v Speaker 1>through and through. It's the Kerring Group of course at

0:34:54.880 --> 0:34:58.279
<v Speaker 1>lvmh Okay, Reachmall and Swiss, but most of its sort

0:34:58.280 --> 0:35:01.839
<v Speaker 1>of kidding in Paris. So this also really helped rock

0:35:01.880 --> 0:35:03.720
<v Speaker 1>at them up the charts to put a much heavier

0:35:03.760 --> 0:35:07.040
<v Speaker 1>waiting this year as well on the world of of

0:35:07.040 --> 0:35:11.040
<v Speaker 1>of luxury and and and a premium offer Tyler Brulet.

0:35:11.480 --> 0:35:13.840
<v Speaker 1>It's always good to hear your voice. One of the

0:35:13.920 --> 0:35:17.160
<v Speaker 1>things I note about Monocle is it features on a

0:35:17.239 --> 0:35:23.600
<v Speaker 1>regular basis young entrepreneurial startup businesses from around the world

0:35:23.680 --> 0:35:28.879
<v Speaker 1>with a focus on craftsmanship and artisan quality. What are

0:35:28.920 --> 0:35:32.680
<v Speaker 1>the cities that you recommend people who are looking to

0:35:32.800 --> 0:35:37.120
<v Speaker 1>either start businesses or expand their businesses at that level,

0:35:37.160 --> 0:35:42.000
<v Speaker 1>that craftsman, artists and level, what cities are the most receptive.

0:35:43.960 --> 0:35:46.080
<v Speaker 1>So I think there's there's two sides to that. Of course,

0:35:46.120 --> 0:35:49.160
<v Speaker 1>paim where is their cash um and where do you

0:35:49.200 --> 0:35:53.120
<v Speaker 1>find a willing and accepting audience? Of course, take your

0:35:53.160 --> 0:35:56.640
<v Speaker 1>ideas into prototype stage or two hang out your single

0:35:56.680 --> 0:35:58.279
<v Speaker 1>and of course is you know where do you have

0:35:58.280 --> 0:36:01.640
<v Speaker 1>a talent pool um and an interesting and interesting a

0:36:01.640 --> 0:36:03.799
<v Speaker 1>place to get going. Look at all eyes have been

0:36:03.840 --> 0:36:06.799
<v Speaker 1>on the west coast of Europe. The turnaround story of

0:36:06.840 --> 0:36:11.080
<v Speaker 1>Portugal has been about manufacturing um, and so many people

0:36:11.080 --> 0:36:13.719
<v Speaker 1>are going to to Lisbon at the moment um. So

0:36:13.760 --> 0:36:17.840
<v Speaker 1>I think Lisbon as a manufacturing base, but also the

0:36:17.920 --> 0:36:20.120
<v Speaker 1>capital base. Now, I mean this is a city they're

0:36:20.120 --> 0:36:23.440
<v Speaker 1>already building a second least Francais because so many French

0:36:23.480 --> 0:36:26.239
<v Speaker 1>people are are moving there um as well. Of course

0:36:26.239 --> 0:36:29.240
<v Speaker 1>it's an interesting tax regime in Portugal at the moment,

0:36:29.320 --> 0:36:31.440
<v Speaker 1>so I would say there. I would say also I

0:36:31.520 --> 0:36:35.240
<v Speaker 1>look up the coast to Porto. Um, you know, Madrid

0:36:35.400 --> 0:36:38.040
<v Speaker 1>is really interesting. If I wanted to do and launch

0:36:38.120 --> 0:36:40.920
<v Speaker 1>a restaurant concept right now, if I said I wanted

0:36:40.920 --> 0:36:44.120
<v Speaker 1>to take something maybe springboard into the Latin American work,

0:36:44.520 --> 0:36:46.919
<v Speaker 1>but you know, give it a European foundation, I would

0:36:46.920 --> 0:36:49.480
<v Speaker 1>look at it. Adam Madrid, I was making a European

0:36:49.520 --> 0:36:52.000
<v Speaker 1>context anyway. We can talk about Asia and North America

0:36:52.040 --> 0:36:54.600
<v Speaker 1>as well. If you're just joining us Chyler Ballet with

0:36:54.640 --> 0:36:57.680
<v Speaker 1>a Smnica. Full disclosure, I have a subscription it to

0:36:57.800 --> 0:37:00.920
<v Speaker 1>Tyler's rag and I hate to admit him. I actually

0:37:00.920 --> 0:37:03.120
<v Speaker 1>put up Tom Keene to Balloons for this. It wasn't

0:37:03.200 --> 0:37:05.239
<v Speaker 1>you know, Tyler didn't like toss it to me free

0:37:05.320 --> 0:37:08.120
<v Speaker 1>or something. You lift it, you can lift it. It's

0:37:08.160 --> 0:37:10.759
<v Speaker 1>like a phone book as well. We're with Tyler Roley

0:37:10.920 --> 0:37:15.000
<v Speaker 1>Securities Analysis, Tyler General Electric. I don't know if you're

0:37:15.040 --> 0:37:18.480
<v Speaker 1>familiar with them. They're small industrial lot of connected in

0:37:18.520 --> 0:37:23.680
<v Speaker 1>New York. Tyler Ge has gone ten nine eight and

0:37:23.840 --> 0:37:26.800
<v Speaker 1>is now trading with essentially no bid at seven dollars

0:37:27.160 --> 0:37:30.880
<v Speaker 1>eighty two cents. It's perfect to talk to Tyler Brolay

0:37:31.640 --> 0:37:36.719
<v Speaker 1>about the cultural realities of mergers. Jeff Himmelt got off

0:37:36.760 --> 0:37:39.680
<v Speaker 1>the plane It's c d G and he went in

0:37:39.719 --> 0:37:44.080
<v Speaker 1>there and did a French industrial acquisition. Tyler it is

0:37:44.280 --> 0:37:49.359
<v Speaker 1>about cultures that don't work together, isn't it. It is?

0:37:49.440 --> 0:37:52.920
<v Speaker 1>And I think I think we think we forget the

0:37:52.920 --> 0:37:57.080
<v Speaker 1>importance of longevity. I was I wasn't actually one of

0:37:57.120 --> 0:37:59.560
<v Speaker 1>the heads of Chanel recently, man who has been out,

0:37:59.600 --> 0:38:02.759
<v Speaker 1>you know what a family owned business, which is a lot.

0:38:02.800 --> 0:38:05.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we don't quite know what chel revenue is,

0:38:05.880 --> 0:38:07.800
<v Speaker 1>but I think it's in the region probably ten billion

0:38:07.920 --> 0:38:10.800
<v Speaker 1>us UM. And and there's you know, there's something to

0:38:10.920 --> 0:38:13.879
<v Speaker 1>be said for you know, picking it out and being

0:38:13.920 --> 0:38:16.279
<v Speaker 1>there for the long haul. And this gentleman said Mr

0:38:16.320 --> 0:38:18.680
<v Speaker 1>Pavlovsky said, you know, you have to be You've got

0:38:18.680 --> 0:38:21.200
<v Speaker 1>to have people who's chick around a long time to

0:38:21.320 --> 0:38:24.040
<v Speaker 1>run a brand. And you can't just bring in a consultant.

0:38:24.040 --> 0:38:28.600
<v Speaker 1>You can't just parachute in potentially a new CFO or

0:38:28.719 --> 0:38:30.719
<v Speaker 1>bulls on a new business on the side of and

0:38:30.760 --> 0:38:32.880
<v Speaker 1>think it's all going to be. We don't work deliriously

0:38:32.920 --> 0:38:35.359
<v Speaker 1>and we're gonna get um, you know, either a nice

0:38:35.360 --> 0:38:37.680
<v Speaker 1>show price or we're gonna get you know, an amazing

0:38:37.760 --> 0:38:40.120
<v Speaker 1>spike and revenues. And I think we you know, I

0:38:40.680 --> 0:38:42.239
<v Speaker 1>you know, in this sort of world of youth and

0:38:42.320 --> 0:38:45.560
<v Speaker 1>hype and millennials and all of these things. Sometimes, actually

0:38:45.560 --> 0:38:48.680
<v Speaker 1>it's all right to be on the job for fifteen years, Tyler.

0:38:48.800 --> 0:38:50.640
<v Speaker 1>One of the things that happens when you're on the

0:38:50.719 --> 0:38:54.319
<v Speaker 1>job for fifteen years is you get that request to

0:38:54.480 --> 0:38:59.080
<v Speaker 1>rebrand or redesign the public face of a company. And

0:38:59.160 --> 0:39:03.560
<v Speaker 1>you've done that many times over. Why don't more companies

0:39:03.680 --> 0:39:07.440
<v Speaker 1>do it when they're healthy and can adjust to the change,

0:39:07.640 --> 0:39:11.840
<v Speaker 1>rather than reacting to problems like a sinking share price

0:39:12.280 --> 0:39:17.680
<v Speaker 1>or perhaps an activist investor, well, I think him, that's

0:39:17.719 --> 0:39:19.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, the issue there is, like you've got everyone

0:39:19.960 --> 0:39:23.520
<v Speaker 1>around the boardroom table in their stretchy comfy pants, right, Um,

0:39:23.800 --> 0:39:27.000
<v Speaker 1>they've got an alassicated waste and everyone is around the

0:39:27.000 --> 0:39:29.640
<v Speaker 1>boardroom table. Yeah, we're feeling sort of comfy and good

0:39:29.640 --> 0:39:31.560
<v Speaker 1>about things. So you know, so why why should we

0:39:31.640 --> 0:39:34.759
<v Speaker 1>change it? And yeah, guess what you're the rebranding all

0:39:34.880 --> 0:39:36.680
<v Speaker 1>in is going to cost us, you know, five or

0:39:36.680 --> 0:39:40.279
<v Speaker 1>seven million, which you know, as we know, um, is

0:39:40.320 --> 0:39:42.200
<v Speaker 1>not that much money coming out of the gate to

0:39:42.320 --> 0:39:46.080
<v Speaker 1>get going. And and that's that's so often the problem, um,

0:39:46.080 --> 0:39:48.520
<v Speaker 1>And I always think, you know, smart companies start to

0:39:48.560 --> 0:39:51.279
<v Speaker 1>interrogate their brand early on, and they look at is

0:39:51.280 --> 0:39:53.880
<v Speaker 1>it time for not just a fresh coat of paint um,

0:39:53.920 --> 0:39:55.160
<v Speaker 1>but you know, do we need to look at our

0:39:55.160 --> 0:39:57.960
<v Speaker 1>whether whether we're in retail or we're an airline and

0:39:58.000 --> 0:40:01.440
<v Speaker 1>we look at these lodges of our airthrop Tyler, congratulations

0:40:01.440 --> 0:40:04.440
<v Speaker 1>on your soft power survey. It's it's it's extremely important

0:40:04.480 --> 0:40:08.120
<v Speaker 1>to all of business worldwide. All I asked relate, would

0:40:08.120 --> 0:40:11.719
<v Speaker 1>you get the European companies to make bigger sizes? So

0:40:11.880 --> 0:40:18.880
<v Speaker 1>maybe that? Yeah, Tyler, really, thank you so much. He

0:40:19.040 --> 0:40:22.319
<v Speaker 1>is in Paris, and of course Monacle is his magazine.

0:40:22.880 --> 0:40:27.080
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

0:40:27.160 --> 0:40:32.480
<v Speaker 1>listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast

0:40:32.520 --> 0:40:36.760
<v Speaker 1>platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before

0:40:36.800 --> 0:40:40.640
<v Speaker 1>the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg

0:40:40.719 --> 0:40:41.000
<v Speaker 1>Radio