WEBVTT - Racing to Update the Vaccines For Variants 0:00:04.080 --> 0:00:08.760 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three d 0:00:08.880 --> 0:00:12.960 and thirty three since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:19.320 Today's main story on the heels of developing near miraculous vaccines. 0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:23.680 Drugmakers are scrambling to make booster shots that can fight 0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:31.440 COVID nineteens dangerous new variants. But first, here's what happened 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:48.720 in virus news today. Some cities in Asia and Europe 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:54.200 that have endured strict lockdowns are gradually opening up. Hong 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:56.639 Kong will double the number of people who can eat 0:00:56.680 --> 0:01:00.760 together at a restaurant if the virus remains contained over 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:04.440 the lunar New Year. Officials who spoke in a a briefing 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:08.200 on Wednesday said they would also open other venues like 0:01:08.319 --> 0:01:14.400 cinemas and beauty parlors next week. Germany's Angela Merkel proposed 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:18.920 a gradual reopening today while arguing for the current restrictions 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:24.320 to remain in place until early March. In Germany, disease 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:30.280 rates have declined steadily since their December peak, but things 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:34.240 aren't loosening up everywhere. The Japanese government is planning to 0:01:34.319 --> 0:01:37.760 keep its state of emergency in ten prefectures in place, 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:42.160 despite earlier reports that it was considering lifting it in 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:47.720 some areas. According to local broadcaster f n N, officials 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:52.320 are maintaining restrictions to ease pressure on the medical system. 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:58.640 Japan will start vaccinations by the middle of next week. Finally, 0:01:59.080 --> 0:02:03.480 Eli Lily combination antibody drug was cleared for emergency use 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:07.600 by the US Food and Drug Administration. The drug will 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:11.200 offer doctors a treatment option that is expected to help 0:02:11.360 --> 0:02:16.440 to combat mutations. The FDA authorized the treatment for use 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:21.120 in COVID positive adults and children twelve and older who 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:24.359 are at high risk of getting very sick from the disease. 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:34.520 And now for today's main story. Just two months ago, 0:02:34.880 --> 0:02:38.720 the incredible performance of new vaccines from Moderna and Fighter 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:42.200 had people cheering for an imminent end to the pandemic. 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:47.519 But an onslaught of fast spreading and potentially dangerous mutations 0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:52.440 of the virus change that. So now, even as pharma 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:55.720 companies ramp up production in the early stages of a 0:02:55.760 --> 0:03:00.480 massive rollout, they are racing to retool their vaccines ategies. 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:05.280 I spoke to health reporter Robert Langrith, who reports that 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:20.480 booster shots could give drugmakers a lucrative new revenue stream. 0:03:20.520 --> 0:03:25.760 What makes variants of COVID nineteen so problematic when it 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:29.280 comes to how effective of vaccine might be, say a 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:34.200 vaccine from MODERNA or Fiser. Yeah, so what's happening out there? 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:36.800 As you know more than a hundred million people around 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:39.440 the world who have gotten infected, that essentially means, you know, 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:43.160 a hundred million chances of mutation, and you accumeate enough 0:03:43.240 --> 0:03:47.000 chances to develop mutation, sometimes the virus will start to 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:51.440 mutate and evolve in ways that are that are bad 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:54.240 for us. One way that's happened is that in the 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:57.120 UK's evolved to be more transmissible, and that is the 0:03:57.200 --> 0:04:01.240 B one one seven strains now rapidly spreading in the US. 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:04.320 Now that strain seems the vaccines seem to be pretty 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:07.280 effective against that string. But what people are really worried 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:10.120 about are some mutations that have occurred in South Africa 0:04:10.160 --> 0:04:13.600 and then some similar ones in Brazil where the virus 0:04:13.640 --> 0:04:16.760 appear to have evolved in a way that may allow 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:19.880 it to you know, partially escape the effects of current 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:23.080 vaccines and the strain they're people they're most worried about. 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:26.600 Uh as to be one three one strain in UH 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:31.080 South Africa, and in some trials so far where vaccines 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:34.760 from both Johnson and Johnson and the vaccines from novavacts 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:37.320 have been tested in South African patients recently that their 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:40.800 vaccines were less effective in South Africa where that variant 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:44.560 is common. Now, we don't have direct data on this 0:04:44.600 --> 0:04:47.760 from the Maderna and Fiser vaccines. What we do have 0:04:47.839 --> 0:04:51.240 is data, kind of lab data suggesting that those vaccines 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:55.479 won't generate as high levels of antibodies against UH, this 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:59.960 vaccine partially evading strain. Both Maderna and Fightsers still think 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:02.680 their vaccines will be effective, but they may not be 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:07.720 you know, quite as powerfully effective. So if it does 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:10.600 turn out that they are not as effective as they 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:14.520 had hoped against some of these variants, what are the 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:18.599 options for drug makers going forward with this problem? The 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:21.640 problem is the worry is as you know, these these 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:24.800 these more people get vaccinated with existing vaccines and these 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:27.520 strains start to spread. You know, these strains could be 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.159 selected for and spread even more widely. And then there's 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:32.400 an additional worry that there could be you know, they 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:35.839 could accumulate addition mutations that allow them to even further 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:39.320 and more more significantly escape the vaccines effects. You know, 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.040 that's kind of a nightmare scenario, kind of a total 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.320 escape Australia of the virus which doesn't exist here. But 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:48.200 that's kind of the worry. So what companies are you 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:51.080 know starting to retool and think about, you know, how 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:54.960 to come up with potential either new versions of vaccines 0:05:55.120 --> 0:05:59.039 to account for these new strains or booster shots, uh 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:00.760 that account for the rains will be at on the 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:04.279 top of the existing vaccines, say six or twelve months 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:08.200 down the line. Now, Maderna has announced that it is gonna, 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:10.839 you know, work on some booster shots shot studies, including 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:13.559 one particularly you know, developed for the South Africa strain, 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:16.120 the fisor CEO Albert bord Law. He said in a 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:19.240 call with investors in February two. He said it was 0:06:19.279 --> 0:06:22.880 increasingly likely that these mutations, uh, you know, there's gonna 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:25.159 likely to be booster shots in the in the future 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:28.280 and kind of like a long term market for these vaccines, which, 0:06:28.320 --> 0:06:30.839 of course, uh you know what's bad I guess for 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:34.520 the world in some ways is potentially good for drug makers. 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:36.760 Good that means drug makers will have products to sell. 0:06:36.960 --> 0:06:38.680 These vaccines is not just some kind of a one 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:42.320 time thing. They'll products to sell in the future. So 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:44.880 how long do we expect it will take for these 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:48.800 booster shots to be developed and made available. Good thing 0:06:48.839 --> 0:06:52.760 about messenger RNA is a revised versions of vaccine can 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:56.320 be developed quite quickly because it's a technology involves you know, 0:06:56.360 --> 0:07:00.640 synthetic chemistry, doesn't evolve growing anything, growing viruses in cells 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:03.240 or proteins in a lab at the synthetic chemistry, so 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:05.839 that that can be done faster. That's good news. The 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:09.840 tricky part is that it's an evolving situation, and you know, 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:12.240 you don't want to develop a booster shot that turns 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:14.360 out to be obsolete a few months now. You want 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:17.320 to kind of figure out what the main strains that 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:20.720 are emerging that have reduced efficacy and you know, developed 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:23.280 new versions of the vaccines against those. And that's kind 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:25.080 of a tricky thing because we need to get consensus 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:27.000 and kind of what's happening out there. So it's an 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:31.480 evolving situation. The FDA Food and Drug Administration has indicated 0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:34.520 is that you know it's going to allow companies if 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:37.679 we do need booster shots or your second generation versions 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:40.480 of the vaccines it's gonna allow companies to move much faster. 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:43.360 They're not gonna have to do trials, efficacy trials and 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:45.400 thousands of thousands of patients like to do the first time. 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.480 There's going to be kind of streamline process based on 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:49.640 what we've learned from the first round of vaccine. So 0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:53.520 these studies should go much faster. I mean overall, if 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:56.240 not a cause for panic, but it doesn't cause for concern. 0:07:57.360 --> 0:07:59.720 And I just want to kind of break down the 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:02.480 US a little bit more, you know, just in terms 0:08:02.520 --> 0:08:07.040 of how booster shots might work. Is it possible that, 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:10.280 for example, any of the drugmakers moderna advisor, Johnson and 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.320 Johnson whatnot, would develop a booster shot and that would 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:17.679 be linked to combat, say just the South Africa variant, 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:21.080 or could a booster shot address a number of different 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:24.760 variants of COVID nineteen. Yeah, and so there's a few 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:27.400 possibilities you know out there. You know, Yes, one, as 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:30.000 you developed there's one strain that's worriesome of you develop 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:32.959 a new new booster shots just against a strain like 0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:37.000 just against South Africa. And another possibility is that, hey, 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:39.079 there's like two or three strains are kind of worried 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:42.480 about vaccines might not be quite effective against circulating the world, 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:44.760 say three months from now, and we want a booster 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:46.920 shot that kind of accounts for all three of them, 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.920 or a new in the new second generation vaccine that 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:52.920 accounts for all three of them. And then and the 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:55.640 authorities and powers that be, you know that public authorities 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:58.839 get together and kind of agree what strange should be 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:01.120 in a new vaccine or a new booster shot. I mean, 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:03.640 that's kind of what happens now each year with the 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:06.800 food vaccine, and there are you know, comparisons being made 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:10.640 like to that. Now, coronavirus you know doesn't mutated the 0:09:10.679 --> 0:09:13.680 rate that the flu does. But you know, another hand, 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:15.120 we've liked to spread a lot and a lot of 0:09:15.120 --> 0:09:17.120 people getting a lot of chances to mutake. So you 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:19.199 know what happens with the flu is you know each year, 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:22.000 you know, authority trying to kind of consent some consensus 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:23.800 and you know what strains are going to be circulating 0:09:23.800 --> 0:09:25.439 a most prominent a few months from now, and then 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:27.920 the design a vaccine on that basis, and something similar 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:30.600 you know, could be done for booster shots for you know, 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:34.840 coronavirus vaccines and booster shots in the future, So there 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:38.040 is a thought out there. It seems increasingly likely, you know, 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:40.040 there's not going to be a one and done situation 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:42.839 the vaccine. There's a good chance we'll need some kind 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:46.679 of booster shots in the future, especially if these vaccine 0:09:46.880 --> 0:09:51.079 evading strains become more prominent. And what's not clear right 0:09:51.120 --> 0:09:53.880 now is how often when the booster shots is this 0:09:53.960 --> 0:09:56.960 because you know, it has the virus stomach mostly significant 0:09:57.000 --> 0:09:59.080 mutaining is going to do already and we've already seen 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:00.920 the bad stuff or some more bad stuff to come. 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:03.360 That's kind of a mystery. And then you know, how 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.520 how long will protection lasts and start to fade with 0:10:06.559 --> 0:10:09.560 existing vaccines. That's not clear at all. So it's just 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.440 not clear at all to the extent we need booster 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:14.480 shots how frequently they will be, whether it be just 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:16.360 like once, it will be like every few years, or 0:10:16.440 --> 0:10:19.240 you know, worst case scenario, every year, and that's that's 0:10:19.240 --> 0:10:22.559 simply unclear at this point. So how might this effect 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:26.000 someone who is still considering whether to be inoculated right 0:10:26.000 --> 0:10:30.240 now or whether they should wait for these later generation 0:10:30.320 --> 0:10:35.400 vaccines that might be more effective against variants. One thing, 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:38.160 you know, I do want to note is that by 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:40.840 no means there's a reason in the US to put 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:43.480 off getting a vaccine or delay getting a vaccine. The 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:45.960 vaccines we have here are still, you know, highly effective 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:50.199 against most of the extrains that are that are circulating 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:52.439 in the US, and the sooner you can get vaccinated, 0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:54.200 the better, and that would really really help. So this 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:55.880 is but this is by no means a reason not 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:58.440 to get inoculated in the US. If you have an appointment, 0:10:58.559 --> 0:11:00.240 did you go rush out and do it for your sure? 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:10.040 That was Robert Langrath. And that's it for our show today. 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:13.040 For coverage of the outbreak from one and twenty bureaus 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:18.240 around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:20.520 if you like the show, please leave us a review 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:24.360 and rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:28.360 way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:32.160 Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Top for foreheads Magnus 0:11:32.200 --> 0:11:36.800 Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:41.400 by Robert Langrith. Original music by Leo Citron. Our editors 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:45.720 are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. Francesco Levy is Bloomberg's 0:11:45.760 --> 0:12:15.679 head of podcasts, Thanks for listening, lest