1
00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:08,760
Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three d

2
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,960
Speaker 1: and thirty three since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic.

3
00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:19,320
Speaker 1: Today's main story on the heels of developing near miraculous vaccines.

4
00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:23,680
Speaker 1: Drugmakers are scrambling to make booster shots that can fight

5
00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:31,440
Speaker 1: COVID nineteens dangerous new variants. But first, here's what happened

6
00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:48,720
Speaker 1: in virus news today. Some cities in Asia and Europe

7
00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:54,200
Speaker 1: that have endured strict lockdowns are gradually opening up. Hong

8
00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,639
Speaker 1: Kong will double the number of people who can eat

9
00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:00,760
Speaker 1: together at a restaurant if the virus remains contained over

10
00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,440
Speaker 1: the lunar New Year. Officials who spoke in a a briefing

11
00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:08,200
Speaker 1: on Wednesday said they would also open other venues like

12
00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:14,400
Speaker 1: cinemas and beauty parlors next week. Germany's Angela Merkel proposed

13
00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:18,920
Speaker 1: a gradual reopening today while arguing for the current restrictions

14
00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:24,320
Speaker 1: to remain in place until early March. In Germany, disease

15
00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:30,280
Speaker 1: rates have declined steadily since their December peak, but things

16
00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:34,240
Speaker 1: aren't loosening up everywhere. The Japanese government is planning to

17
00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,760
Speaker 1: keep its state of emergency in ten prefectures in place,

18
00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,160
Speaker 1: despite earlier reports that it was considering lifting it in

19
00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:47,720
Speaker 1: some areas. According to local broadcaster f n N, officials

20
00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:52,320
Speaker 1: are maintaining restrictions to ease pressure on the medical system.

21
00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:58,640
Speaker 1: Japan will start vaccinations by the middle of next week. Finally,

22
00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:03,480
Speaker 1: Eli Lily combination antibody drug was cleared for emergency use

23
00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,600
Speaker 1: by the US Food and Drug Administration. The drug will

24
00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:11,200
Speaker 1: offer doctors a treatment option that is expected to help

25
00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:16,440
Speaker 1: to combat mutations. The FDA authorized the treatment for use

26
00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:21,120
Speaker 1: in COVID positive adults and children twelve and older who

27
00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,359
Speaker 1: are at high risk of getting very sick from the disease.

28
00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:34,520
Speaker 1: And now for today's main story. Just two months ago,

29
00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:38,720
Speaker 1: the incredible performance of new vaccines from Moderna and Fighter

30
00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:42,200
Speaker 1: had people cheering for an imminent end to the pandemic.

31
00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:47,519
Speaker 1: But an onslaught of fast spreading and potentially dangerous mutations

32
00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:52,440
Speaker 1: of the virus change that. So now, even as pharma

33
00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:55,720
Speaker 1: companies ramp up production in the early stages of a

34
00:02:55,760 --> 00:03:00,480
Speaker 1: massive rollout, they are racing to retool their vaccines ategies.

35
00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:05,280
Speaker 1: I spoke to health reporter Robert Langrith, who reports that

36
00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:20,480
Speaker 1: booster shots could give drugmakers a lucrative new revenue stream.

37
00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:25,760
Speaker 1: What makes variants of COVID nineteen so problematic when it

38
00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:29,280
Speaker 1: comes to how effective of vaccine might be, say a

39
00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:34,200
Speaker 1: vaccine from MODERNA or Fiser. Yeah, so what's happening out there?

40
00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:36,800
Speaker 1: As you know more than a hundred million people around

41
00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:39,440
Speaker 1: the world who have gotten infected, that essentially means, you know,

42
00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:43,160
Speaker 1: a hundred million chances of mutation, and you accumeate enough

43
00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:47,000
Speaker 1: chances to develop mutation, sometimes the virus will start to

44
00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:51,440
Speaker 1: mutate and evolve in ways that are that are bad

45
00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,240
Speaker 1: for us. One way that's happened is that in the

46
00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:57,120
Speaker 1: UK's evolved to be more transmissible, and that is the

47
00:03:57,200 --> 00:04:01,240
Speaker 1: B one one seven strains now rapidly spreading in the US.

48
00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,320
Speaker 1: Now that strain seems the vaccines seem to be pretty

49
00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,280
Speaker 1: effective against that string. But what people are really worried

50
00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,120
Speaker 1: about are some mutations that have occurred in South Africa

51
00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:13,600
Speaker 1: and then some similar ones in Brazil where the virus

52
00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,760
Speaker 1: appear to have evolved in a way that may allow

53
00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:19,880
Speaker 1: it to you know, partially escape the effects of current

54
00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:23,080
Speaker 1: vaccines and the strain they're people they're most worried about.

55
00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,600
Speaker 1: Uh as to be one three one strain in UH

56
00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:31,080
Speaker 1: South Africa, and in some trials so far where vaccines

57
00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,760
Speaker 1: from both Johnson and Johnson and the vaccines from novavacts

58
00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,320
Speaker 1: have been tested in South African patients recently that their

59
00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,800
Speaker 1: vaccines were less effective in South Africa where that variant

60
00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:44,560
Speaker 1: is common. Now, we don't have direct data on this

61
00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,760
Speaker 1: from the Maderna and Fiser vaccines. What we do have

62
00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:51,240
Speaker 1: is data, kind of lab data suggesting that those vaccines

63
00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:55,479
Speaker 1: won't generate as high levels of antibodies against UH, this

64
00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:59,960
Speaker 1: vaccine partially evading strain. Both Maderna and Fightsers still think

65
00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,680
Speaker 1: their vaccines will be effective, but they may not be

66
00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:07,720
Speaker 1: you know, quite as powerfully effective. So if it does

67
00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,600
Speaker 1: turn out that they are not as effective as they

68
00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:14,520
Speaker 1: had hoped against some of these variants, what are the

69
00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:18,599
Speaker 1: options for drug makers going forward with this problem? The

70
00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,640
Speaker 1: problem is the worry is as you know, these these

71
00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,800
Speaker 1: these more people get vaccinated with existing vaccines and these

72
00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,520
Speaker 1: strains start to spread. You know, these strains could be

73
00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,159
Speaker 1: selected for and spread even more widely. And then there's

74
00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,400
Speaker 1: an additional worry that there could be you know, they

75
00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,839
Speaker 1: could accumulate addition mutations that allow them to even further

76
00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,320
Speaker 1: and more more significantly escape the vaccines effects. You know,

77
00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,040
Speaker 1: that's kind of a nightmare scenario, kind of a total

78
00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,320
Speaker 1: escape Australia of the virus which doesn't exist here. But

79
00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,200
Speaker 1: that's kind of the worry. So what companies are you

80
00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,080
Speaker 1: know starting to retool and think about, you know, how

81
00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,960
Speaker 1: to come up with potential either new versions of vaccines

82
00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:59,039
Speaker 1: to account for these new strains or booster shots, uh

83
00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:00,760
Speaker 1: that account for the rains will be at on the

84
00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:04,279
Speaker 1: top of the existing vaccines, say six or twelve months

85
00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:08,200
Speaker 1: down the line. Now, Maderna has announced that it is gonna,

86
00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:10,839
Speaker 1: you know, work on some booster shots shot studies, including

87
00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,559
Speaker 1: one particularly you know, developed for the South Africa strain,

88
00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,120
Speaker 1: the fisor CEO Albert bord Law. He said in a

89
00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,240
Speaker 1: call with investors in February two. He said it was

90
00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,880
Speaker 1: increasingly likely that these mutations, uh, you know, there's gonna

91
00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,159
Speaker 1: likely to be booster shots in the in the future

92
00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,280
Speaker 1: and kind of like a long term market for these vaccines, which,

93
00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,839
Speaker 1: of course, uh you know what's bad I guess for

94
00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:34,520
Speaker 1: the world in some ways is potentially good for drug makers.

95
00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:36,760
Speaker 1: Good that means drug makers will have products to sell.

96
00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:38,680
Speaker 1: These vaccines is not just some kind of a one

97
00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:42,320
Speaker 1: time thing. They'll products to sell in the future. So

98
00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,880
Speaker 1: how long do we expect it will take for these

99
00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:48,800
Speaker 1: booster shots to be developed and made available. Good thing

100
00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:52,760
Speaker 1: about messenger RNA is a revised versions of vaccine can

101
00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:56,320
Speaker 1: be developed quite quickly because it's a technology involves you know,

102
00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:00,640
Speaker 1: synthetic chemistry, doesn't evolve growing anything, growing viruses in cells

103
00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,240
Speaker 1: or proteins in a lab at the synthetic chemistry, so

104
00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,839
Speaker 1: that that can be done faster. That's good news. The

105
00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:09,840
Speaker 1: tricky part is that it's an evolving situation, and you know,

106
00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:12,240
Speaker 1: you don't want to develop a booster shot that turns

107
00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:14,360
Speaker 1: out to be obsolete a few months now. You want

108
00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,320
Speaker 1: to kind of figure out what the main strains that

109
00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,720
Speaker 1: are emerging that have reduced efficacy and you know, developed

110
00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,280
Speaker 1: new versions of the vaccines against those. And that's kind

111
00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,080
Speaker 1: of a tricky thing because we need to get consensus

112
00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,000
Speaker 1: and kind of what's happening out there. So it's an

113
00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:31,480
Speaker 1: evolving situation. The FDA Food and Drug Administration has indicated

114
00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,520
Speaker 1: is that you know it's going to allow companies if

115
00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:37,679
Speaker 1: we do need booster shots or your second generation versions

116
00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:40,480
Speaker 1: of the vaccines it's gonna allow companies to move much faster.

117
00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,360
Speaker 1: They're not gonna have to do trials, efficacy trials and

118
00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:45,400
Speaker 1: thousands of thousands of patients like to do the first time.

119
00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:47,480
Speaker 1: There's going to be kind of streamline process based on

120
00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,640
Speaker 1: what we've learned from the first round of vaccine. So

121
00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:53,520
Speaker 1: these studies should go much faster. I mean overall, if

122
00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,240
Speaker 1: not a cause for panic, but it doesn't cause for concern.

123
00:07:57,360 --> 00:07:59,720
Speaker 1: And I just want to kind of break down the

124
00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,480
Speaker 1: US a little bit more, you know, just in terms

125
00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:07,040
Speaker 1: of how booster shots might work. Is it possible that,

126
00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,280
Speaker 1: for example, any of the drugmakers moderna advisor, Johnson and

127
00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:13,320
Speaker 1: Johnson whatnot, would develop a booster shot and that would

128
00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:17,679
Speaker 1: be linked to combat, say just the South Africa variant,

129
00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:21,080
Speaker 1: or could a booster shot address a number of different

130
00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,760
Speaker 1: variants of COVID nineteen. Yeah, and so there's a few

131
00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,400
Speaker 1: possibilities you know out there. You know, Yes, one, as

132
00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:30,000
Speaker 1: you developed there's one strain that's worriesome of you develop

133
00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:32,959
Speaker 1: a new new booster shots just against a strain like

134
00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:37,000
Speaker 1: just against South Africa. And another possibility is that, hey,

135
00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,079
Speaker 1: there's like two or three strains are kind of worried

136
00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,480
Speaker 1: about vaccines might not be quite effective against circulating the world,

137
00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:44,760
Speaker 1: say three months from now, and we want a booster

138
00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:46,920
Speaker 1: shot that kind of accounts for all three of them,

139
00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:50,920
Speaker 1: or a new in the new second generation vaccine that

140
00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:52,920
Speaker 1: accounts for all three of them. And then and the

141
00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,640
Speaker 1: authorities and powers that be, you know that public authorities

142
00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,839
Speaker 1: get together and kind of agree what strange should be

143
00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,120
Speaker 1: in a new vaccine or a new booster shot. I mean,

144
00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,640
Speaker 1: that's kind of what happens now each year with the

145
00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,800
Speaker 1: food vaccine, and there are you know, comparisons being made

146
00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,640
Speaker 1: like to that. Now, coronavirus you know doesn't mutated the

147
00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,680
Speaker 1: rate that the flu does. But you know, another hand,

148
00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:15,120
Speaker 1: we've liked to spread a lot and a lot of

149
00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:17,120
Speaker 1: people getting a lot of chances to mutake. So you

150
00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,199
Speaker 1: know what happens with the flu is you know each year,

151
00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,000
Speaker 1: you know, authority trying to kind of consent some consensus

152
00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:23,800
Speaker 1: and you know what strains are going to be circulating

153
00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:25,439
Speaker 1: a most prominent a few months from now, and then

154
00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,920
Speaker 1: the design a vaccine on that basis, and something similar

155
00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,600
Speaker 1: you know, could be done for booster shots for you know,

156
00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:34,840
Speaker 1: coronavirus vaccines and booster shots in the future, So there

157
00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,040
Speaker 1: is a thought out there. It seems increasingly likely, you know,

158
00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,040
Speaker 1: there's not going to be a one and done situation

159
00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:42,839
Speaker 1: the vaccine. There's a good chance we'll need some kind

160
00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,679
Speaker 1: of booster shots in the future, especially if these vaccine

161
00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:51,079
Speaker 1: evading strains become more prominent. And what's not clear right

162
00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,880
Speaker 1: now is how often when the booster shots is this

163
00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,960
Speaker 1: because you know, it has the virus stomach mostly significant

164
00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:59,080
Speaker 1: mutaining is going to do already and we've already seen

165
00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:00,920
Speaker 1: the bad stuff or some more bad stuff to come.

166
00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,360
Speaker 1: That's kind of a mystery. And then you know, how

167
00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,520
Speaker 1: how long will protection lasts and start to fade with

168
00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:09,560
Speaker 1: existing vaccines. That's not clear at all. So it's just

169
00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,440
Speaker 1: not clear at all to the extent we need booster

170
00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,480
Speaker 1: shots how frequently they will be, whether it be just

171
00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,360
Speaker 1: like once, it will be like every few years, or

172
00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,240
Speaker 1: you know, worst case scenario, every year, and that's that's

173
00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:22,559
Speaker 1: simply unclear at this point. So how might this effect

174
00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:26,000
Speaker 1: someone who is still considering whether to be inoculated right

175
00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:30,240
Speaker 1: now or whether they should wait for these later generation

176
00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:35,400
Speaker 1: vaccines that might be more effective against variants. One thing,

177
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,160
Speaker 1: you know, I do want to note is that by

178
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,840
Speaker 1: no means there's a reason in the US to put

179
00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:43,480
Speaker 1: off getting a vaccine or delay getting a vaccine. The

180
00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:45,960
Speaker 1: vaccines we have here are still, you know, highly effective

181
00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:50,199
Speaker 1: against most of the extrains that are that are circulating

182
00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:52,439
Speaker 1: in the US, and the sooner you can get vaccinated,

183
00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:54,200
Speaker 1: the better, and that would really really help. So this

184
00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:55,880
Speaker 1: is but this is by no means a reason not

185
00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,440
Speaker 1: to get inoculated in the US. If you have an appointment,

186
00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:00,240
Speaker 1: did you go rush out and do it for your sure?

187
00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,040
Speaker 1: That was Robert Langrath. And that's it for our show today.

188
00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,040
Speaker 1: For coverage of the outbreak from one and twenty bureaus

189
00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:18,240
Speaker 1: around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and

190
00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:20,520
Speaker 1: if you like the show, please leave us a review

191
00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:24,360
Speaker 1: and rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best

192
00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:28,360
Speaker 1: way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The

193
00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:32,160
Speaker 1: Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Top for foreheads Magnus

194
00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:36,800
Speaker 1: Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported

195
00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:41,400
Speaker 1: by Robert Langrith. Original music by Leo Citron. Our editors

196
00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:45,720
Speaker 1: are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. Francesco Levy is Bloomberg's

197
00:11:45,760 --> 00:12:15,679
Speaker 1: head of podcasts, Thanks for listening, lest