1 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: Strap on your parachute. He it's time for What Goes 2 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: Up with Sarah Ponzick and Mike Reagan. Hello and welcome 3 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:18,279 Speaker 1: to What Goes Up, a Bloomberg Weekly Markets podcast. I'm 4 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 1: Sarah Ponzek, a reporter on the Cross Asset team, and 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: I'm Mike Reagan, senior editor on the Markets team. And 6 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 1: you can think of me as the Ralph Kramden to 7 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: Sarah's Ed Norton. So that one comes from a guy 8 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 1: Ellie PanAm on Twitter. His references are older than mine. 9 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 1: Actually though that's the Honeymooners, that's about that's a million 10 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: years old. I was going to say, Ellie, Ellie Panamey, 11 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: we always love when when you reach out to us. However, 12 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:46,959 Speaker 1: I was going to say that I would might get 13 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 1: aide shamed for this one because I actually had to 14 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 1: look up who that you are, and I knew you 15 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: would be disappointed in me. But anyway, we know Mike 16 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: had run out of options, so we appreciate you giving 17 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 1: him some advice on that. But this week you might 18 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: actually want to be the Crampton. I don't. I'm not sure. 19 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 1: One guy's fat and cranky and the other guy's skinny 20 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: and stupid. I don't know you your pick whichever, I'm 21 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:09,960 Speaker 1: just gonna have to take your advice on this one. 22 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: Your call, Mike, you tell me which one I am 23 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 1: and will go. I'd go with Norton. I'm a little 24 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: bit uh body. It's a body shame myself. I'm I'm 25 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 1: more crammed in like myself. Whatever you say. But this 26 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:26,479 Speaker 1: week on the show, Mike, it was a first half 27 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: for the record books. A record speed stock decline followed 28 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 1: by a record speed stock rally, negative oil prices and 29 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 1: negative FED funds, futures, droves of monetary and fiscal stimulus, 30 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 1: and of course, a pandemic that swept the globe. No 31 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: one can possibly know what will happen next, but our 32 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 1: guests will help us survey the possibilities, and as always, 33 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 1: will close out the episode with our tradition the craziest 34 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 1: thing I saw in markets this week And Sarah, as 35 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: you said, no one can possibly tell us what's next, 36 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: but we're gonna try to make this guest give it 37 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: a shot anyway. Smart guy, first time on the show. 38 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: We're very happy to have him. His name is Jack 39 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 1: Jonna Seewitz. He's a strategist and portfolio manager at the 40 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:13,399 Speaker 1: Texas Investment Managers, and will also be joined by Bloomberg's 41 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 1: banking reporter Felice Mirans. But Jack, let's start with you. 42 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. First of all, it's nice to 43 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: have you. Yeah, thanks for the invitations. Pleasure to be here. Absolutely. 44 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 1: You know, Jack, I'm thinking, here we are. The market 45 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 1: has come into the July fourth holiday with a full 46 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 1: head of steam. What was it, something like a nine 47 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 1: gain in in the first quarter. The rally sort of 48 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:38,639 Speaker 1: continued to begin the month, you know, and I guess 49 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: you could sort of shorthand the explanation if you had to, 50 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: as as don't fight the Fed, but also the stimulus 51 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 1: from the fiscal side of things, I think was a 52 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: big part of the story. Now we're heading into July, 53 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 1: and I wonder, you know, there's not a lot of 54 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 1: congress in session left for the rest of the summer. 55 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: I think there's only something like three weeks left of 56 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: uh congressional sessions until September, and I wonder if the 57 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: market is gonna start wondering where that next batch of 58 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus is. You know, I kind of got the 59 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: impression that a lot of people saw the aggressive action 60 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: taken early in the pandemic, and started to assume that 61 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 1: more was coming, that by now there would maybe be 62 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: a follow up package. Uh, then the type of thing 63 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 1: that would maybe extend those unemployment benefits, the six week bonus. 64 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: What are you looking for in July? Is it possible 65 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: that the market will start to look more and more 66 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: towards the belt Way for a sign of if in 67 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: anything else is coming down the pipeline. Yeah, and Mike, 68 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: you hit on. I think that the biggest short term 69 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: risk that we're really paying a lot of attention to, 70 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 1: you know, I think bottom line is simply, we've had 71 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: a ton of monetary policy backstopping the markets. We've had 72 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: a ton of fiscal support throne at it. That remains 73 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: to be key, right, and I think you're not going 74 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: to see the fedback off any time soon. So it 75 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: really falls back onto the hands of of Congress. And 76 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: you know, as they start to get ready to your 77 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 1: head to recess, you've got a little bit of a 78 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 1: shift in terms of priorities. Um, police reform might be 79 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: kind of drifting to the front, and that might put 80 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: a little bit of pressure in terms of having to 81 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: actually enact that phase five. I've already lost track on 82 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 1: which phase we're in. UM, But to me, that's the 83 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 1: biggest concern here is simply fiscal fatigue. UM. You know, 84 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 1: I've heard a little bit of talk about some of 85 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: the numbers that have come out more recently being a 86 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 1: little bit better than expected, and maybe that puts a 87 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: little bit less pressure on commerce to push through that 88 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: phase five, if you will. UM. But to me, this 89 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: is the I think the kiv lynchpin here. You know, 90 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: they need to get something done. Uh, they need to 91 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: extend those benefits. Uh, they need to sort of continue 92 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 1: to kind of give that fiscal support. And my big 93 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:50,839 Speaker 1: concern is that if they do sort of back off 94 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 1: and they come up with some sort of an underwhelming package, uh, 95 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 1: that actually could be one of the head winds I 96 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 1: think for the markets going forward. So that is certainly 97 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: the number one risk we're paying attention. And two as 98 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: we head into the summer months here, if that happens, 99 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 1: and I say, if, what does it actually look like? 100 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: Because as you mentioned, we've gotten some better than expected 101 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 1: economic data this past Thursday, another four and a half 102 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: million jobs added or maybe we should say returned. Yet 103 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 1: you still have an unemployment rate that is above eleven percent. 104 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: There's still a lot of pain out there as it 105 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 1: relates to the economy. And meanwhile, you have a stock 106 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 1: market that is coming off of its best second quarter 107 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 1: or best quarter at all since and you have this 108 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 1: idea that maybe the urgency is fading to get another 109 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 1: fiscal package from Congress, because if you only look at 110 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: those month over month numbers, or you only look at 111 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 1: the market, you might be convinced that we're seeing a recovery. Yeah, 112 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:51,720 Speaker 1: and I think listen some of the data that's come out, 113 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: it's it's a little bit tricky to interpret. I know, 114 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:55,720 Speaker 1: there's a there's plenty of things that you can look 115 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 1: through in the most recent jobs numbers where you can 116 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: take a bunch of positives away in a bunch of negatives. Um. 117 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: I always sort of step back and and sort of 118 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: take the jobs numbers with a with a grand assault. 119 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: There's always a ton of revisions. We heard about all 120 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:12,039 Speaker 1: sorts of calculation problems, you know, listen, at the end 121 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:14,279 Speaker 1: of the day, to me, it's all about less good, 122 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: less bad. I think at least the big takeaway from 123 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 1: me with this last job's report was it was less 124 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 1: bad but it's still not great in the grand scheme 125 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: of things. So, you know, the markets or any of 126 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 1: the anyone in Congress coming up a sort of a 127 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: false sense of security on that in a sense that 128 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: things are getting better. Um, that's going to be I 129 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 1: think a little bit concerning going forward, because quite frank, 130 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 1: I think some of what you're seeing is pent up demand. 131 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 1: As we slowly start to see these states reopening that 132 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 1: pent up the man starts to work its way through. 133 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 1: You know, you start to see restaurants who can now 134 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,839 Speaker 1: do the outdoor seating, for example, and limited seating inside. 135 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 1: They had to hire some people back to make that work. Um. 136 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 1: But once you sort of get through that pent up 137 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 1: demand and it sort of evens out, which is kind 138 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 1: of where we might be right now, that might give 139 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: us a little bit of a false impression that we're 140 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 1: going to continue with that same trajectory going for So 141 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: to me, it wouldn't be surprising if we started get 142 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: a little bit of a leveling. Often here, Uh, the 143 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 1: trend may continue to drift higher. The slope of that 144 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,520 Speaker 1: line might not be quite as steep, maybe a little flatter, 145 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: but the point here less bad getting better. But we're 146 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 1: still not very close to getting to the other side 147 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 1: of this, and that that's the whole the pole point here. 148 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 1: Congress still needs to support that sort of gap that's 149 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: that's still basically looming over the markets. Yeah, Jack, I 150 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 1: know you've spent some time trying to analyze the spread 151 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: of the virus um and what to expect going forward. 152 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 1: I mean, if you just look at the headlines, boy, 153 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: it sounds like it's it's starting to rage, almost out 154 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: of control. But we'll walk us through kind of the 155 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 1: metrics that you look at to gauge UM, whether it's 156 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: getting worse or improving, and sort of how it then 157 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: relates to to the economic recovery. I I wonder if 158 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: we'll start hearing more people talking about a a W 159 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: shaped recovery, uh, the ones who hadn't already been talking 160 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 1: about everyone has or their favorite letter. But uh, is 161 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: there a risk of a W rather than a V 162 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 1: shaped recovery if this uh, if this buvirus keeps, you know, 163 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: spreading like wildfire. When we start to talk to our clients, 164 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 1: and it's interesting because sort of the narrative that's been 165 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: out there with the with the with the reactions that 166 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 1: we're getting from our clients with regard to their concerns 167 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 1: for the second half of the years, the biggest risk 168 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: to them is the second wave coming, right, And one 169 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 1: of the things that we've been trying to walk our 170 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 1: clients through is just sort of how to think about 171 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: that second wave coming. And there's a few things that 172 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 1: that we're focusing on that I think really make a 173 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 1: difference in terms of that approach and to us, you know, 174 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: taking a step back and understanding that the virus that's 175 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:42,200 Speaker 1: something that I think we need to learn to live with, right, 176 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: it's not going away. And even when we think about 177 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: this from the get go right, the lockdowns that we 178 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: went into, that was not really a function of trying 179 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: to eradicate the virus. It was simply trying to buy time. Right, 180 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 1: We're trying to buy time so that we could get 181 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: an understanding of the virus, how it spreads. Give our 182 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: hospital tolls, are health care systems sometime to get their 183 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 1: arms ready, to get to get their systems ready to 184 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 1: handle you know, what was coming. It was all about 185 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: basically giving us time to understand and get the health 186 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 1: care system ready. Now, I think that's that's shifted a 187 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 1: bit and to us. It's not about case counts, which 188 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 1: is what a lot of people to me seem to 189 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 1: be focusing on for that second wave, right, It's more 190 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 1: about severity of that second wave, so to speak. And 191 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: we also try to point out the fact that, you know, 192 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: some of these southern states, this isn't a second wave. 193 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 1: To us, if this was a true second wave, you 194 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: sort of have that camel hump idea right. Um, to me, 195 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 1: this is really the first wave. You sort of had 196 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: to hit to the northeast to kind of roll to 197 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: the Midwest, and now it's heading south. So to me, 198 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 1: this isn't really the second wave, and it's the first wave. 199 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: And they're just getting through this, they're finally starting to 200 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: see the spread of this. But taking this full full 201 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 1: warn you know, the bottom line here, it's severity, and 202 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:55,200 Speaker 1: you know the severity we measure through, UM, I see 203 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 1: you units, you know, looking at the hospitalizations because one 204 00:09:58,040 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: of the things that we like to talk about what 205 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 1: the clients have comply. If I get sick, I test 206 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 1: positive for the virus, I may just simply go home 207 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:07,960 Speaker 1: for a couple of days, you know, take some time off, 208 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: and then a week later, I'm sort of back to 209 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 1: normal activity. I'll show up in that positive test case, 210 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 1: but am I really going to be detrimental to the 211 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: overall economic backtrap? No? So the one thing that I 212 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: think matters more here's that positive uh you know, the 213 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 1: testing that becomes positive with regard to the overall test 214 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:28,319 Speaker 1: cases and the severity of that, are we going into 215 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:29,959 Speaker 1: the hospital are we having to use up the i 216 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 1: c U units? So to us, measuring severity is through 217 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: the hospitalizations, through the i c U units. Um. That 218 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 1: to us is the bigger one, and that's the one 219 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 1: we're spending a lot more time focusing on. Uh. CDC 220 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 1: has gotten a lot better with regard to putting that 221 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 1: sort of data out and you can basically get that 222 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: across all of the different states. So that's us is 223 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 1: really the key thing to be watching for. And then 224 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 1: the other one we've been sort of trying to focus 225 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 1: on as well is the economic impact from some of 226 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 1: the states they're getting hit right, Because to us, the 227 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 1: narrative might be shifting a little bit here in the 228 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: sense that we may have hot spots popping up, but 229 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: if we could deal with those hot spots while keeping 230 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 1: the rest of the nation functioning and operating from an 231 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: economic standpoint, then is it really going to be a 232 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 1: detriment to the overall SMP five. So again it's sort 233 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: of what's the economic impact if we had severity rising 234 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: in certain states they had to go through lockdown, is 235 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 1: it going to have a significant impact on the overall 236 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: economic backdrop? And we're seeing that, you know, obviously in 237 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: some states where they matter more than others. So of 238 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: course when we see these numbers rise, it's heartbreaking. There's 239 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 1: human lives and there's people behind these numbers that we 240 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 1: see on our screens each day. But also as market watchers, investors, economists, 241 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:43,719 Speaker 1: I mean, part of the reason people really watch them 242 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: is to get an idea of what might happen to 243 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,719 Speaker 1: consumer confidence or consumer spending and police. You cover the 244 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 1: banking industry and the airport earnings in just under two 245 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 1: weeks now, and the banking industry is really at the 246 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 1: heart of all of this. Is there any sense do 247 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 1: we know yet what we can expect in terms of 248 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:07,559 Speaker 1: reports on credit quality or spending or loan lost provisions, 249 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: anything of that sort that will shed light on the 250 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: U S. Consumer. Sure, there are a couple of things, 251 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 1: but first I just want to point out that the 252 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: KBW Bank index is down thirty six percent year to date, 253 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 1: and that compares with a two point six percent drop 254 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: for the SMP five hundred. So all of these worries, 255 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 1: all of these concerns plus very low interest rates that's 256 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: already reflected in bank stocks. You want to see a 257 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:36,840 Speaker 1: negative outlook on COVID and the economy there it is 258 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: look at the big banks. So in terms of earnings, 259 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: which kick off in the middle of July, the number 260 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: one question is that provisions number the bad loans. You 261 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,199 Speaker 1: already had a lot of provisioning. What's going to happen 262 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 1: in the second quarter that's still backward looking. People are 263 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 1: going to be paying very close attention to what the 264 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: banks have to say about what's to come. And we've 265 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: already seen analysts cutting because they expect a continued elevation 266 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 1: in those provisions. Uh. The big question that Mike raised 267 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:13,840 Speaker 1: before about what happens when the stimulus runs out. Right now, 268 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: we have a consumer and unemployed consumer has been boosted 269 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:20,839 Speaker 1: by a lot of government stimulus. We saw that even 270 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: with rental cars and car sales, they're not as bad 271 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 1: as people expected. The stimulus has been holding everything afloat, 272 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 1: and the big question is when that stops, what happens 273 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 1: and what happens if people have to stop paying rent 274 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 1: and their mortgages. Yeah, Jack uh police made a great 275 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 1: point there about how bank stocks certainly haven't participated very 276 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: much in this rebound and equities and now there's this 277 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:49,679 Speaker 1: old trope on Wall Street that you sort of need 278 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 1: to see the bank stocks rallying to confirm a bullish 279 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: sentiment in the market at least confirmed that, you know, 280 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: the rest of the market is uh not getting maybe 281 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: ahead of its skis. Do you do you put any 282 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 1: stock into that notion that uh, you know, lagging backs 283 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 1: bank stocks is not a very good sign for the 284 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: overall market. Yeah, you know, that's one of the things 285 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: that we certainly like to see. Um, you know, a 286 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: couple of the indicators that we were focusing on sort 287 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: of trying to call that bottom. One of them was 288 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 1: sort of looking at the leadership and really seeing the 289 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: participation coming from the bank side. Um, it's been lagging, 290 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 1: so you know, and some of the things that that 291 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: that we're just outlined, it's not surprising. You know, I 292 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: would like you could add on a couple of the 293 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 1: things they're uh, you know, we've seen the labor numbers 294 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: getting better, so again that's probably better for the ability 295 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 1: for some of these repayments to come through. You know, 296 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: household income still holding up fairly well, especially given some 297 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 1: of the fiscal stimulus that's been put through. So you know, 298 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 1: from a short term perspective, you know, it's certainly I 299 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 1: could see the banking stocks sort of getting a little 300 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: bit of of of a pop on the on the 301 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: near term side. But the bigger thing that that still 302 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:59,360 Speaker 1: bothers me still going forward is simply the markets is 303 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: continuing to trade the banks like a rates trade. And 304 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 1: so you know, if you just overlay the tenure relative 305 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 1: to the bank stocks performance versus the S and P five, uh, 306 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: there's a pretty good relationship there. And so until the 307 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 1: market wants to look at trading banks in a different facet, 308 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: it's gonna be tough for me to see banks getting 309 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 1: any sort of leadership in here, um, you know. And 310 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: and so when you sort of think about the outlook 311 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 1: for banks that filters back through the interest rate outlook, 312 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 1: to me, yeah, maybe we get a little bit of 313 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 1: a move higher as the as the reopen continues to improve. 314 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 1: That might give a little bit push higher on rates, 315 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 1: maybe even get a steeper curve when you throw in 316 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: some of the some of the issuance coming in the 317 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 1: you know, the the back end of the curve. So again, 318 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 1: short term that might help, but longer term, I still 319 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 1: think we're gonna see rates kind of pinned at these 320 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 1: lower levels here, and so I think that's going to 321 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 1: continue to be ahead wind for financials. And back to 322 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: your to your point, um, you know, I think there 323 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 1: might be a little bit of a disconnect with that 324 00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 1: sort of barometer in terms of banks being a key 325 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: poor into really taking the market higher. Certainly, I don't 326 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 1: want to see him going down, you know, as long 327 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 1: as they're lagging but not lagging too far behind, I 328 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 1: think that's okay. But um, I think it's going to 329 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 1: be a struggle going forward, just because the rates are 330 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 1: trading along the lines with with rates, and I just 331 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 1: don't see rates gapping higher in the interim at least 332 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 1: anytime soon. We had seen this rotation taking place late 333 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: May early June, where cyclical stocks were leading, higher value 334 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: stocks were leading higher, but all of a sudden, it 335 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: seems like that was just stop dead in its tracks. 336 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 1: Police mentioned banks down more than thirty percentage points this year, 337 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 1: the SMP down two percent. Then you look at the 338 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 1: NAZAC one hundred up into twenty, which I think when 339 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 1: people here they're still surprised to hear that the NAZAC 340 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 1: is possibly up twenty percent this year. After we've dealt 341 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: with the amount that we've dealt with. Is there a 342 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: larger message or a signal that we should be taking 343 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: away from that or is that something that will simply 344 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 1: persist just because of the nature of the recession that 345 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 1: we're dealing with right now. Yeah, I think it's both 346 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 1: short term and long term. There's a there's interesting stories there, 347 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 1: you know. A short term to me, the text the 348 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 1: tech equation UM tech seems to be treating more from 349 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 1: a defensive posture. You know, we think of things here 350 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 1: at the Texas in terms of reopen versus stay at 351 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 1: home UM And so when you think about the stay 352 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,159 Speaker 1: at home economy, that tends to bode well for the 353 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 1: tech side of the equation. You know, Internet, online shopping, 354 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 1: online ordering, that sort of thing. UM. So when you 355 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 1: think about the defensive side to stay at home side, 356 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 1: tech continues to benefit from that. But even longer term. 357 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,239 Speaker 1: I think that the tech story still resonates, and so 358 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: that's this is kind of why I have a tough 359 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: time getting too barish or at least not not wanting 360 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 1: to continue to overweight tech. You know, think about supply 361 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 1: chain redistribution as some of that has to move back 362 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 1: and re shores to the United States. You know, some 363 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 1: of that I think is going to have to be 364 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: a beneficiary because quite frankly, um, you know, some of 365 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 1: these companies, if they want to maintain those margins, they 366 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: were doing it via lower acoustic capital I you know, 367 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,919 Speaker 1: using some Chinese labors for example, are or the Asian 368 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: side of the equation. If that gets rein short, I'm 369 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 1: not sure you can continue to have that benefit. And 370 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:08,360 Speaker 1: one of the ways you can make up for that 371 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: would be to invest in technology, try to bring down 372 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:13,679 Speaker 1: some of those labor costs and replace that on the 373 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 1: capitol side. And so from that standpoint, for example, it 374 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,959 Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprising if tech continues to benefit from that. 375 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 1: You know, please to switch gears a little bit. I 376 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 1: One of the fixtures you work on for Bloomberg is 377 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 1: the Wall Street votes UH feature that you you put together. 378 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,439 Speaker 1: It basically looks at uh, some of the research about 379 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 1: the intersection of politics and markets. You know, when I 380 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 1: watched Joe Biden sort of ascend in the polls here 381 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: and kind of widen out his lead, it doesn't seem 382 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: to me like there's been much of a reaction and 383 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 1: a negative reaction. What is sort of the zeitgeist among 384 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 1: the political strategists that you read and write about, is 385 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 1: there is there a risk, an election risk coming up 386 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 1: that the market is maybe not pricing in. Well. A 387 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: few weeks ago, we highlighted the uncoupling of Trump's chances 388 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 1: and markets and the SMP five hundred, and that was 389 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 1: very interesting. Trump good for Trump, was seen as good 390 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 1: for stocks until a certain point. And lately Trump's numbers 391 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 1: have been going down, down, down, and the market has 392 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 1: been rallying. We see a complete uncoupling. Now. The biggest 393 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:46,120 Speaker 1: risk here that maybe underappreciated is for a tax hike. 394 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 1: Joe Biden said, uh, just recently that he's going to 395 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:55,920 Speaker 1: raise taxes corporations, donors might not like that. I think 396 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 1: the market has taken that in stride. I think there's 397 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: a sense that Biden is a relative moderate, and it 398 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:07,400 Speaker 1: who knows what's going to happen. It's still the election 399 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 1: is still a long way off, and the market is 400 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 1: kind of accepted that Trump is not helping his own 401 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 1: case with his recent statements and that race has come 402 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 1: to the forefront right now as an issue that's driving 403 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 1: the American voter. Jack, how much do you guys actually 404 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 1: filter in political risk into the way that you guys 405 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 1: approach investing in building portfolios. I mean it seems very challenging. 406 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:37,360 Speaker 1: First you have to get the outcome of any election, right, 407 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: and then you also have to understand what policies will 408 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 1: actually go into place, and also how those policies will 409 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 1: actually affect the market. I mean, we think back to 410 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 1: what happened in the presidential election, what happened in Brexit, 411 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 1: and clearly many expectations had never played out. Yeah, and 412 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: you know it matters, right, it's going to have It's 413 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,640 Speaker 1: going to impact the market sentiment, and it's gonna move 414 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: asset prices. Uh, it's just a question of when does 415 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,120 Speaker 1: that start to filter its way through and then how 416 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 1: significant will it be? And at the end of the day, 417 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 1: you know the markets are gonna pay attention to the 418 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 1: polls and so trying to get your arms around the polls, 419 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: how to interpret that that starts to matter. And so 420 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 1: still we think it might be a little bit too 421 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 1: early to start focusing on the polls in here. Um, 422 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 1: the one thing that I would caveat. You know, a 423 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:26,960 Speaker 1: lot of the polling that you sort of hear about 424 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 1: and read in the news, a lot of that's based 425 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:33,199 Speaker 1: on just the popular vote. Obviously, the popular vote is 426 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 1: not going to be what gets the president or whoever 427 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 1: is elected to office, right, And so if you think 428 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 1: about the popular vote, you know you've got New York, Massachusetts, California. 429 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: When you do these polling samples, those are gonna be 430 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 1: obviously heavily leaning towards the Democratic side. Those are big 431 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,120 Speaker 1: popular states. Obviously that's gonna excuse some of these polling 432 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 1: numbers a little bit more aggressively towards Biden. So one 433 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 1: of the things we sort of trying to step back 434 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,159 Speaker 1: from is to make sure that you're focusing more on 435 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,879 Speaker 1: the electoral college side of the equation from polling and 436 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 1: not on the popular vote. And then the second one 437 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 1: is really trying to figure out what the policies are 438 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: gonna look like, and that's gonna come down to Congress, Right, 439 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 1: are you're gonna have a split Congress. And so while 440 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 1: we spend a lot of time focusing on who's gonna 441 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: take the White House, uh, to me, it really what 442 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,239 Speaker 1: the bigger one is is it's the Senate. Right if 443 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,400 Speaker 1: the Senate ends up flipping and you get a clean 444 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: suite and then a lot of this stuff can that 445 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 1: the market will probably be worried about can sail right 446 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,719 Speaker 1: through If you get a split Congress and the Republicans 447 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,199 Speaker 1: retain the Senate, now you're gonna have some give and 448 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,400 Speaker 1: take in there, and it might be some difficult uh 449 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 1: you know, measures that get through. So yeah, Jack, I 450 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 1: feel like it's it's an environment where uh, deciding on 451 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:48,720 Speaker 1: the correct portfolio allocation is incredibly tough. Um. And I know, uh, 452 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: you know you're a strategist and ah and a portfolio manager. 453 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 1: Maybe it's not exactly your your wheelhouse on allocation. But 454 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 1: I'm wondered, doesn't the Texas have sort of a house 455 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: view on portfolio allocation? And right now, were you yourself, 456 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: you know what what would be sort of the bottom line, Uh, 457 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 1: just that you would tell clients right now about how 458 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 1: much risk they should be taking, where should they be 459 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 1: taking it? That sort of thing. Yeah, So I sit 460 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:15,880 Speaker 1: on the portfolio research and consulting side of the Texas 461 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: and that's what we basically spend most of our time doing. Right. 462 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 1: We work a lot with clients in terms of helping 463 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 1: them build better portfolios, give them ideas in terms of 464 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:29,040 Speaker 1: portfolio construction, Uh, do portfolio evaluations. Where are some of 465 00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,880 Speaker 1: the key risks where we see opportunity, that sort of thing. 466 00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 1: So the internal debate that we're really struggling with is 467 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 1: the fixed income side of the equation, right, I mean, 468 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,680 Speaker 1: if you think about your traditional sixty forty portfolio at 469 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 1: forty being in the fixed income side, you know, when 470 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,200 Speaker 1: you start to look at the tenure treasury sitting at 471 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:50,240 Speaker 1: seventy basis points, what's the utility of treasuries and the 472 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 1: portfolio at this point? And we've always viewed it as 473 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 1: an equity risk offset, right, So if equities were to 474 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: sell off, you're gonna have hopefully bonds rally, you get 475 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 1: some duration there, yields collapse that that out the treasury 476 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 1: side of your equation will offset some of your equity risk. 477 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 1: But as you sort of approach that zero lower bound, 478 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 1: you know, the ability for the fixed income side of 479 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 1: the equation to really offset a lot of that risk 480 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: becomes challenged. And so some of the things that we're 481 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:21,120 Speaker 1: really having a pretty you know, significant internal debate about 482 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,439 Speaker 1: is what's the what's the recipe for working around that? 483 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:30,119 Speaker 1: Is it meaning sixty equities, twenty fixed and then twenty 484 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 1: maybe it's gold, precious metals. Maybe now you have to 485 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,640 Speaker 1: start thinking about the use of alternatives in the portfolio. 486 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 1: The bottom line, though, is with rates as low as 487 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,680 Speaker 1: they are and probably not going much higher, that sort 488 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 1: of typical ballast that that equity offset and the portfolio 489 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: is becoming challenged, and so you have to start thinking 490 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 1: about things a little bit differently, Jack. I think that 491 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,880 Speaker 1: we're all having significant internal debates at the moment about 492 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 1: about multiple things, not just market Sara. If if everyone 493 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: had followed my lead and bought a bunch of bicycles 494 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,719 Speaker 1: where the pandemic, they'd be sitting pretty right nownd my 495 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 1: holdings are about antique bikes. So I uh, I'm gonna 496 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 1: gloat about that. Hey, as we learned when we had 497 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,360 Speaker 1: med favor on, he has a farmland, you have antique, right. 498 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 1: I wish I could have farmland. I don't know farmland 499 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 1: in New Jersey is not exactly the cheapest the cheapest 500 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 1: asset around, but Sarah, I think we're approaching that time. 501 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 1: I believe we are. You know what time, Let's let 502 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 1: Charlie Pellett tell us what time it is. Stand clear 503 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,480 Speaker 1: of the craziest things we saw in markets this week. 504 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 1: That's right, Charlie, it's time for the craziest things we 505 00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:57,440 Speaker 1: saw in markets this week. Uh Sarah, crazy week, I guess, 506 00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 1: not necessarily the craziest we've seen. But let's kick it 507 00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 1: off with you. What what's your craziest thing for the week. 508 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 1: My craziest thing for the week. Well, there's a plenty 509 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 1: to choose from. But Nicola, We've we've talked about the 510 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 1: company on this podcast before named after Nicola Tesla, well, 511 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:21,120 Speaker 1: the company that some have been comparing to Tesla lately. 512 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,200 Speaker 1: There's a headline that dropped early this week that read 513 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 1: Nicolas cells five thousand dollar reservations for truck with no prototype. 514 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:33,280 Speaker 1: So there's no prototype for this truck and people will 515 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 1: have to pay five thousand dollars just to hope that 516 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,919 Speaker 1: they save their spot to buy the car in the future. 517 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 1: Uh So, pretty pretty, pretty crazy and we've seen the 518 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,239 Speaker 1: stock just continue to fly Tesla too. Is there an 519 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:51,640 Speaker 1: estimated data arrival on this truck or or no? Well, 520 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 1: I did do some really quick research and uh, for Nicola, 521 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 1: that car expected delivery so still a ways away. That's 522 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 1: pretty good one that that company manages to find its 523 00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,120 Speaker 1: way into this segment quite a bit. It's it's it's 524 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,919 Speaker 1: remarkable place. How about you, what's the craziest thing you 525 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,399 Speaker 1: saw this week? I think really the craziest thing that 526 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 1: I've seen lately, and again there are a lot of 527 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 1: crazy things, is that the Secretary of the Treasury was 528 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 1: actually asked about the President tweeting about Confederate statues and 529 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 1: Confederate names on army bases, and he defended that by 530 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 1: citing Mary and Jesus Christ. So you have minutin talking 531 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:34,480 Speaker 1: about the Bible and Confederate statues and names of army basis, 532 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 1: when ordinarily you have a Secretary of Treasury who's pretty 533 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 1: focused on you know, treasury stuff. Wow, politics and religion. 534 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:45,639 Speaker 1: It's a good thing. This isn't Thanksgiving dinner. We'd be 535 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 1: we'd be going off the rails here, We're breaking all 536 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 1: the rules Thanksgiving. We'll be here before we all know 537 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:52,399 Speaker 1: it though, and I'm sure it all look like a 538 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 1: very different holiday than we're used to. All Right, Jack, 539 00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 1: you're on the hot seat. What's the craziest thing you 540 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,359 Speaker 1: saw this week? So this is very challenging, I have 541 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:05,399 Speaker 1: to admit to that. Um. So it's I was putting 542 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,200 Speaker 1: together a presentation earlier in the week, and one of 543 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,119 Speaker 1: the things that we've been doing we've been tracking the 544 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 1: number of central bank rate cuts that have been occurring. 545 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 1: And I've got the data going all the way back 546 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,640 Speaker 1: to basically the financial crisis. And when you look at 547 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,680 Speaker 1: the number of rate cuts year to date, and again 548 00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: I'll caveat this by saying, it's rate cuts from central banks, 549 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: meaning the FED, the Bank of England ECB, all the 550 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,879 Speaker 1: way down to the small um you know, central banks 551 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,200 Speaker 1: coming out of out of Africa for example. Um, we've 552 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,400 Speaker 1: had a hundred sixty four different rate cuts year to date, 553 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,760 Speaker 1: and since March one, which i'll call the start of 554 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 1: the crisis, we've had a hundred forty one different central 555 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:45,479 Speaker 1: banks cut rates. I add up all the basis points 556 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 1: worth of rate cuts, it's north of ten thousand basis points. Okay, 557 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 1: so let's do some math. On that break it down. 558 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 1: That's about a hundred and twenty basis points of cuts 559 00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 1: every trading day since March one. That is pretty unbelievable. 560 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 1: That's really good. That's what I've got for you. That's good. 561 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 1: That's good. He came, Sarah, he delivered. That was came prepared. 562 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 1: We knew you. When you add up the number and 563 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 1: you think, well, a lot of them were bigger than 564 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: sort of the twenty five basis point, you know, smaller increments. 565 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 1: A lot of them were you know, I'm forgetting what 566 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 1: the what did the FED do? They did fifty and 567 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 1: I forget what they did fifty twice fifty emergency and 568 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 1: then we had another. Yeah, it's a good segue into 569 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,400 Speaker 1: my my craziest thing to Sarah, because, um, it involves 570 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,720 Speaker 1: a central banker, and it involves what a lot of 571 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,480 Speaker 1: us have been struggling with in the pandemic, and that's 572 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 1: conducting business over Zoom or over Skype or whatever your 573 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,280 Speaker 1: your video service of choices, and a lot of the 574 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 1: sort of muckey MUCKs like yourself, Sarah, have to go 575 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,640 Speaker 1: on television from your home office on either Zoom or 576 00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:57,480 Speaker 1: whatever it may be. Um, And to me, what's fascinating 577 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:01,240 Speaker 1: is everyone sort of tries to curate this interesting background 578 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 1: behind them. You know, it's often in front of a 579 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 1: bookshelf with like with Shakespeare and you know, Graham and 580 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 1: Dodd and Sarcha and that sort of thing. Jack's pointing 581 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:13,320 Speaker 1: out his blank wall behind him, which I have to 582 00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,800 Speaker 1: I uh I, I have obviously not curated much of 583 00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 1: a background. But one of the most important people in 584 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 1: financial marketsts, Christine Legarde, went on a video conference appearance 585 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,800 Speaker 1: that was televised recently. She should have paid a little 586 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,880 Speaker 1: bit more at touch into her background, because I'll read 587 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:37,240 Speaker 1: you the headline of the Bloomberg story about it, how 588 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,719 Speaker 1: a sex cults creationist book appeared on the guard shelf. 589 00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 1: So apparently on the on the her bookshelf behind her 590 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,400 Speaker 1: was this book called the Atlas of Creation and it 591 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 1: was written by this Turkish uh they call they call 592 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:57,080 Speaker 1: him a televangelist and sex cult leader who was jailed 593 00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 1: a few years ago on a whole laundry list of 594 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:05,400 Speaker 1: crazy things. And he wrote a book basically arguing against evolution, 595 00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:09,560 Speaker 1: arguing that you know, God created everything, and he again, 596 00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:11,960 Speaker 1: to get back to the religion angle, we should keep 597 00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 1: out of the Thanksgiving dinner, but he use pictures of 598 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:19,120 Speaker 1: fossils and modern day animals to argue against UH evolution. 599 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,880 Speaker 1: So the big question is, you know, everyone had his 600 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:23,920 Speaker 1: what the heck was this book doing on her shelf? 601 00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:26,080 Speaker 1: And it's really the only book you can sort of 602 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,880 Speaker 1: identify on her shelf. So they called her, and no 603 00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 1: one at DCB would comment. They did say she has 604 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 1: not read the book. But apparently the prevailing theory is 605 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 1: that this guy sent this book out to a lot 606 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 1: of sort of influencers out in the world, you know, 607 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:46,920 Speaker 1: government officials and people like Christine Legarde, and that perhaps 608 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 1: she received it in the mail and and slapped it 609 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,880 Speaker 1: on the shelf and forgot about it. I have some 610 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,200 Speaker 1: sympathy to that theory, Sarah, because as you know, in 611 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 1: in media, we get a lot of crazy books sent 612 00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,080 Speaker 1: to us, and I think I've read about one percent 613 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:00,960 Speaker 1: of them and the rest of it my desk. So 614 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 1: UM kind of disappointed I didn't get this book though 615 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,240 Speaker 1: it sounds like a doozy. See now it's going to 616 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,719 Speaker 1: be sent to you. Just just wait two weeks and 617 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,240 Speaker 1: it'll show up about your door. Mike. This is why 618 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 1: I stick to phoners. You put a headshot up on 619 00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 1: the screen I got. Don't got to worry about what 620 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 1: I look like, what the background looks like. Any weird 621 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:23,520 Speaker 1: books showing up in the background. Pretty safe. Cyru's books 622 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:27,040 Speaker 1: are like how to fend off an alligator attack. Actually, 623 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 1: I I use books to stack my requarter used for 624 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:33,080 Speaker 1: this podcast, and they're all cooking books. So it's all 625 00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 1: I've got right now, pretty much hard backs, large enough 626 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 1: ones to to raise it up to my to my voice. 627 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 1: So it works. It works, But I believe Mike. We 628 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 1: also got some crazy things through the Twitter sphere. Oh 629 00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:47,920 Speaker 1: of course that's right. And we also got a voicemail. 630 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 1: Let's uh, let's listen to the voicemail. Hi, my name 631 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,280 Speaker 1: is Max. I'm calling you about the podcast What goes Up? 632 00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,960 Speaker 1: I just heard your latest episode talking about to put 633 00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:02,200 Speaker 1: the call ratio. Keep in mind at that's relatively useless. 634 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:06,440 Speaker 1: I buy put all the time to initiate bullets positions. 635 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:08,920 Speaker 1: I mean pretty much, I'm just treading where the liquidit 636 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,200 Speaker 1: he is. So if there's a quidity input, I'll buy 637 00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,480 Speaker 1: puts raving calls and just create a bullsh put spread 638 00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 1: rab and a bush called spread. Thanks. Yes, sorry, this 639 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,200 Speaker 1: guy makes a pretty good point that a lot of 640 00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 1: times the data you're looking at doesn't necessarily show the 641 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,400 Speaker 1: signal that you think it is. Uh, Jack Old, do 642 00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 1: you ever look at put call ratios as any sort 643 00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:35,000 Speaker 1: of sentiment signal in the market. Yeah, we do a 644 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,200 Speaker 1: little bit of that, you know, but it's not just 645 00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:39,480 Speaker 1: one input that we fall We've probably got a whole 646 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,760 Speaker 1: list of them, you know. It's one piece of the puzzle. Yeah, 647 00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:45,680 Speaker 1: relying on just one thing obviously, But I do also 648 00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:49,200 Speaker 1: wanna give a shadow just to one of our writings 649 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,880 Speaker 1: on Twitter, notably because he said that a story that 650 00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,960 Speaker 1: I wrote was the craziest thing you've seen in markets 651 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 1: all week. So a little bit shamelessness of me right now, 652 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,040 Speaker 1: but this is from at tweet viewer nine. He said, hilarious, 653 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,320 Speaker 1: here's the craziest thing I saw this week, And basically, 654 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,239 Speaker 1: UH Data Trick Research Nichol's you've had him on the 655 00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,560 Speaker 1: show before. He conducted a survey and he asked people 656 00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:13,239 Speaker 1: in the survey, where do you think the SMP is 657 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,080 Speaker 1: going to finish the year? Gave five different choices spanning 658 00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 1: from more than down, down more than ten percent to 659 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,720 Speaker 1: up more than ten percent and pretty much every single option, 660 00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:23,840 Speaker 1: all five of them got the same number of answers 661 00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:27,720 Speaker 1: was split into fifth, so no one has a clue. 662 00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:30,520 Speaker 1: That's that tells you a lot about the prevailing sentiment 663 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:34,040 Speaker 1: right now. Yeah. Also, Sarah, a good one from at 664 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,840 Speaker 1: j Y Squall. He noticed, you know this, this German 665 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,840 Speaker 1: payments company wire Card, it's it's embroiled in this really 666 00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 1: complicated scandal. Uh. I'll spare the details, but he pointed 667 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:48,920 Speaker 1: out their stock was up about you know, really gotten 668 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:52,120 Speaker 1: crushed because of the scandal. He pointed out, they're up 669 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,719 Speaker 1: about a hundred and fifty percent to start the week 670 00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,319 Speaker 1: on Monday, and he goes the week started out and 671 00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,640 Speaker 1: traders are trying to pull a hurts on wire Card. 672 00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:05,319 Speaker 1: Who's next Chesapeake? And here's his actuable advice, never go 673 00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:11,440 Speaker 1: short on crazy things long only. So that's that's not 674 00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:13,960 Speaker 1: my actual advice. That's j Y Squalls. I think he 675 00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,040 Speaker 1: might have a point, though I was about to say, Mike, 676 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,680 Speaker 1: this is not investing advice. We do not advise that 677 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,640 Speaker 1: you actually take any crazy things we say and run 678 00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,920 Speaker 1: with them. But j Y Squall, if you want to 679 00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,160 Speaker 1: your call, that's right, that's his advice. Maybe a crazy 680 00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:30,440 Speaker 1: thing et F is what what we need to to 681 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,520 Speaker 1: get next maybe, but the ten thousand basis points and cuts. 682 00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:37,120 Speaker 1: Jack is a really amazing and pretty much sums up 683 00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,239 Speaker 1: the world almost that we are living in. So Jack 684 00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:42,920 Speaker 1: Tennessee with and police morons. Thanks so much for coming 685 00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,319 Speaker 1: on the show this week. Also, thank you very much. 686 00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:54,680 Speaker 1: There's a lot of fun. Thank you What Goes Up. 687 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,600 Speaker 1: We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find 688 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 1: us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app, or wherever 689 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,000 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took 690 00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,040 Speaker 1: the time to rate and read the show on Apple 691 00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:08,080 Speaker 1: Podcasts so more listeners can find us, and you can 692 00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,200 Speaker 1: find us on Twitter, follow me at at Sarah Ponzack. 693 00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,240 Speaker 1: Mike is a very anonymous and you can also follow 694 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:18,279 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcasts at Podcasts and a very special thank you 695 00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:20,759 Speaker 1: to Charlie Pellett of Bloomberg Radio and the voice of 696 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,920 Speaker 1: the New York City Subway System. What Goes Up is 697 00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,960 Speaker 1: produced by Jordan Gaspore. The head of Bloomberg Podcast is 698 00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:29,879 Speaker 1: Francesco Levie. Thanks for listening. See you next time.