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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. After fifteen months of

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Speaker 1: war in Gaza, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire

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Speaker 1: deal on Wednesday, mediated in part by Egypt, Qatar, and

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Speaker 1: the US. The Katari Foreign minister announced the deal at

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Speaker 1: a press conference.

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Speaker 2: We will continue to do everything we can, everything possible

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Speaker 2: together with our partners, to ensure.

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Speaker 3: That this deal is implemented as it's agreed.

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Speaker 1: Under the terms of the agreement, Israel and Hamas will

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Speaker 1: stop their fighting at least for now, allowing critical aid

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Speaker 1: to reach Palestinians in Gaza. Over the course of days

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Speaker 1: beginning this Sunday, thirty three hostages are expected to be

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Speaker 1: released and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners will be freed.

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Speaker 3: Right now, people are crossing the fingers Gaza celebrations, Families

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Speaker 3: of hostages holding on.

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Speaker 1: As Qatar's foreign minister finished his remarks. President Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: held his own press conference.

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Speaker 2: I'm proud to say America's will be part of that

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Speaker 2: hostage release in phase one as well.

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Speaker 1: This ceasefire deal is the first step towards ending the

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Speaker 1: war between Israel and Hamas, which has killed forty six

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Speaker 1: thousand people in Gaza, more than a thousand people in

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Speaker 1: Israel and decimated the Gaza Strip. But Israel Bureau Chief

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Speaker 1: Ethan Browner told me it's not a guarantee of a

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Speaker 1: permanent ceasefire.

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Speaker 2: Let's not let this broadcast go without it being said

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Speaker 2: that it could easily end after six weeks this deal,

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Speaker 2: that they could not come to an agreement on the

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Speaker 2: next phase. Thirty three hostages will leave and the others

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Speaker 2: will stay, and the war.

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Speaker 3: Will begin again. That is a totally imaginable outcome.

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Speaker 1: I also spoke with Bloomberg reporter for Rez Algoul, who's

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Speaker 1: from the Gaza Strip.

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Speaker 4: Because the ceasefire talks have been thorny, the mediators seem

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Speaker 4: to have preferred that they both sides agree on the

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Speaker 4: easiest things, and they postponed the more difficulty issues to

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Speaker 4: the next phases.

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Speaker 1: Today on the show, Ethan and for Uz explain how

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Speaker 1: this ceasefire deal was reached, why now, and what the

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Speaker 1: next phases of negotiation will look like. This is the

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Speaker 1: big take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. Thank you

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Speaker 1: so much Ethan for being here. We're talking around one

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Speaker 1: pm in New York eight pm in Tel Aviv on Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: news has just broken that Israel and Hamas have reached

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Speaker 1: a ceasefire deal. What do we know as of now

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Speaker 1: about what is in that deal, Well, we.

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Speaker 3: Think we know a fair amount in theory.

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Speaker 2: What happens is over the next six weeks, thirty three

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Speaker 2: Israeli hostages, mostly living but some dad will be released

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Speaker 2: by Hamas who've been held in captivity for fifteen months.

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Speaker 2: In exchange, many hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli

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Speaker 2: prisons will be released. Simultaneously, Israel will withdraw from major

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Speaker 2: population centers. Its troops will be withdrawn from major population

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Speaker 2: centers in Gaza to the outskirts of the Gaza Strip.

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Speaker 2: And at the same time, from the first day, there

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Speaker 2: will be approximately six hundred trucks of aid pouring into

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Speaker 2: Gaza to help those who are in need, and many

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Speaker 2: are in very severe need.

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Speaker 1: When will Phase one of the deal start and when

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Speaker 1: will that second stage begin?

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Speaker 2: As you said, we've just heard that the deal has

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Speaker 2: been concluded.

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Speaker 3: The signature is up ahead of us.

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Speaker 2: The Israeli Cabinet needs to approve it, probably on Thursday

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Speaker 2: of this week, and there is also a forty eight

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Speaker 2: hour waiting period in Israel before something can begin.

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Speaker 3: So the expectation is that by.

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Speaker 2: Sunday, the understanding is that on that day three hostages

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Speaker 2: will be released. Then on the sixteenth day, the two

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Speaker 2: sides will continue their indirect negotiations. They don't sit across

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Speaker 2: from each other, they don't recognize one another for the

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Speaker 2: next phase, the goal of which is not just a

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Speaker 2: six week pause in fighting, but a full end to

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Speaker 2: the fighting in exchange for which the remaining hostages would

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Speaker 2: be released and.

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Speaker 3: More prisoners will be released.

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Speaker 2: And then the question of the security arrangement and so

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Speaker 2: on for the Gaza strip will also play a big role.

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Speaker 1: Biden announced American hostages will be among those released. First,

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Speaker 1: how is who's getting released in this first phase being decided?

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Speaker 2: So they are all what are called humanitarian cases, and

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Speaker 2: the definition in this particular case means women, including women soldiers,

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Speaker 2: anyone over fifty children. And in this case there are

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Speaker 2: only dead children, but children and ill and injured, so

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Speaker 2: that's the thirty. And we do not know if any

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Speaker 2: or all will be living hostages. So there could be

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Speaker 2: three bodies released on Sunday, or there could be three people.

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Speaker 1: Do we know if agreement has been reached about the

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Speaker 1: specific Palestinian prisoners that will be released.

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Speaker 2: We have a general idea that there was a lot

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Speaker 2: of back and forth about who would be released. We're

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Speaker 2: pretty sure that a couple of the most famous prisoners,

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Speaker 2: particularly a man named Irjan Barguti, who was theenis the

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Speaker 2: potential leader of a Palestinian state one day, will not

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Speaker 2: be released.

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Speaker 1: Ethan. This ceasefire deal is not unlike one that held

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Speaker 1: for less than a week in November of twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 1: It's very very similar to one that was almost agreed

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Speaker 1: on in twenty twenty four. But it took months to

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Speaker 1: get to this point. And after fifteen months of war

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Speaker 1: in Gaza, can you explain the factors that suddenly accelerated

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Speaker 1: progress here?

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Speaker 2: I think that the most important thing that changed is

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Speaker 2: that an enormous amount of successful Israeli military activity occurred. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Israel killed the leader of Hamas Yekji Sinoir. Israel blew

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Speaker 2: up in the pockets of thousands of people in Lebanon,

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Speaker 2: his Belah activists pagers and walkie talkies, and it killed

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Speaker 2: the leader of his Belah as well underground, and it

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Speaker 2: killed another leader of Hamas in Iran and it stripped

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Speaker 2: Iran of many of its air defense systems. So there

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Speaker 2: was a range of very powerful Israeli military accomplishments. And

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Speaker 2: by the way, one other thing that happened, which wasn't

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Speaker 2: a direct consequence of Israeli military action, but indirect, was

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Speaker 2: the collapse of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria.

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Speaker 2: So an entire network of support system for HAMAS has

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Speaker 2: collapsed in that period, leaving HAMAS in a position where

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Speaker 2: it had fewer cards to play. Another thing that happened

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Speaker 2: is although the war continued and many thousands more people

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Speaker 2: were killed in Gaza, many more places destroyed, there wasn't

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Speaker 2: really a sense in Israel that it was quote unquote

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Speaker 2: winning the war definitively. And then another important factor, which

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Speaker 2: is that the far right of Prime Minister Nitanya, whose

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Speaker 2: cabinet had been saying, if you end this war and

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Speaker 2: cut a deal, we will destroy this government, will walk

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Speaker 2: out and end the coalition. In that time, the Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister added another party to his rulying coalition, protecting him

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Speaker 2: from that threat. And finally, and not in any way

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Speaker 2: least of all, Donald Trump was elected president of the

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Speaker 2: United States.

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Speaker 3: The sense that Trump.

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Speaker 2: Is a very, very deep supporter and also a rather

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Speaker 2: impatient and unpredictable man who came in and said, get

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Speaker 2: this thing over all, hell is going to break.

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Speaker 3: Loose if you don't cut this deal.

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Speaker 2: Somehow seems to have focused everyone's mind. It's on both

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Speaker 2: sides and all sides, and all those reasons together have

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Speaker 2: produced this deal.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about Trump. How did his election

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Speaker 1: kind of change the stakes both Fornett and Yahou and

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Speaker 1: for Hamas.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, when he was President of the United States

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Speaker 2: from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty one, was a huge

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Speaker 2: supporter of Nitaya who and a right wing version of

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Speaker 2: Israel and Zionism. So he moved the embassy, the American

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Speaker 2: embassy to a Jerusalem. He no longer declared settlements in

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Speaker 2: the West Bank to be illegal. He recognized Israel's annexation

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Speaker 2: of the Goal on Heights, and he basically said.

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Speaker 3: There's no daylight here of any kind.

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Speaker 2: Trump has basically made clear that there's not going to

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Speaker 2: be any limit on the kinds of weapons than the

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Speaker 2: ammunition that he's going to offer Israel. So it's conceivable

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Speaker 2: that on the Hamas side, the message has received that

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Speaker 2: only more brutality is headed our way on the Israeli side.

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Speaker 2: It's also true that Trump is basically saying, I'm here

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Speaker 2: to help you. So if I'm making this request, now

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Speaker 2: do it okay, because after this there'll be other stuff

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Speaker 2: that you'll want from me, and I'll be more open

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Speaker 2: to listening to it. That at least is the implication

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Speaker 2: of how we talked to Prime Minister to Tanya.

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Speaker 1: How much political pressure has Netanyaho been under in Israel

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Speaker 1: to bring those hostages home and to do anything to

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Speaker 1: make that happen.

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Speaker 2: I would say for the first half of this war.

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Speaker 2: So over the first six or eight months, the pressure

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Speaker 2: existed in the sense that people were on the streets,

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Speaker 2: but there was an equal size of the population that

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Speaker 2: believed that a trading bringing back the hostages in exchange

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Speaker 2: for more Palestinian prisoners who could go on to commit

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Speaker 2: acts of violence against Israel.

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Speaker 3: Was not worth it.

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Speaker 2: Over the last four to six months, Israel has felt

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Speaker 2: much safer than It's now a very strong majority for

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Speaker 2: bringing home the hostages, and there's an enormous, enormous desire

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Speaker 2: very deep to bring them home.

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Speaker 1: The war in Gaza has also damaged Israel's economy. It's

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Speaker 1: harmed its relationship with allies. The country has been condemned

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Speaker 1: by international bodies like the UN, and its leaders have

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Speaker 1: been hit with arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court

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Speaker 1: for its wartime tactics that have displaced and killed thousands

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Speaker 1: of civilians. How did these economic and political pressures and

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Speaker 1: international scrutiny help bring Israel to the table for a

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Speaker 1: deal right now?

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Speaker 2: The first part of the war, although the world condemned Israel,

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Speaker 2: the feeling in Israel not one hundred percent, but I

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Speaker 2: would say the majority feeling was the world can condemn.

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Speaker 3: Us all that it likes.

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Speaker 2: We have to protect ourselves and that's what we have

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Speaker 2: to do now. Israel borrowed a record amount last year

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Speaker 2: on the International bureau bond market in order to pay

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Speaker 2: for this war. Taxes are going up to pay for

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Speaker 2: the war. State salaries have been frozen, the VAT.

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Speaker 3: Is going up. So it is a painful time.

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Speaker 2: Once the sense that that need for protection weld diminished

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Speaker 2: because of the victories that we've been talking about, then

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Speaker 2: I think people and people were eventually forced to look

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Speaker 2: a little bit at what was happening in Gaza. Not

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Speaker 2: that much, I must tell you, but some and the condemnations.

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Speaker 2: It all started to add up to listen, maybe enough

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Speaker 2: is enough here and we need to end this war.

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Speaker 1: Coming up, what this ceasefire will mean for Palestinians on

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Speaker 1: the ground in Gaza, and what could lie ahead for Israel,

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Speaker 1: Gaza and the region if the ceasefire holds. As the

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Speaker 1: terms of the temporary ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas

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Speaker 1: began to come into focus, I sat down with Forerees Algol.

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Speaker 1: He's a reporter from the Gaza strip who's been covering

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Speaker 1: the conflict from Canada Fars. I want to talk about

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Speaker 1: what this pause and the fighting, what the ceasefire deal

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Speaker 1: could mean on the ground in Gaza. The war has

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Speaker 1: been extremely devastating for Gaza, for its people, for its economy.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about the scale of the destruction before. What

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Speaker 1: can start to happen in these early days to change

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Speaker 1: the picture there immediately.

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Speaker 4: The Boss will be an occasion for the Gazans to

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Speaker 4: take a respite, to take a breath. It will give

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Speaker 4: them time to explore the destruction and to look for

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Speaker 4: the missing gay ones who are believed to be did

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Speaker 4: The deal also includes a return of the displaced Palestinians

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Speaker 4: who were forced out of their homes in the north

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Speaker 4: of Gaza strip into the south. Now they are expected

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Speaker 4: after one week of the deal, if things go smoothly,

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Speaker 4: to return back to Gaza, to North Gaza. There they

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Speaker 4: will find that most of their houses are destroyed, as

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Speaker 4: we all know that two thirds of the houses in

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Speaker 4: Gaza have been either destroyed or damaged. But for many

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Speaker 4: Ghazzans the seasfire is just a respite and opportunity to

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Speaker 4: process their grieves.

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Speaker 1: Have you heard any reactions from people in Gaza, from

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Speaker 1: Palestinians there to the ceasefire deal. How does it feel

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Speaker 1: to hear this news after so long?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I was talking to people in the morning in Gaza.

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Speaker 4: The general mood there in Gaza indicates happiness and comfort

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Speaker 4: because it will be the first time that the daily

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Speaker 4: killings are going to stop. They will be trying to

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Speaker 4: sleep one night without having to worry about the hovering

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Speaker 4: drones and aircraft and the foreign shells. But some people

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Speaker 4: in Gaza blame Hamas for brulining the negotiations. They say,

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Speaker 4: since this deal is not that much different than what

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Speaker 4: was put by Biden, Hamas should have shown this flexibility

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Speaker 4: earlier to save the Gaza Strip, more destruction and more losses.

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Speaker 4: Hamas has always stuck to its long standing demand for

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Speaker 4: Israel to withdraw all its forces from the Gaza Strip

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Speaker 4: and abide by holding all the attacks from the air

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Speaker 4: and from the ground. In recent weeks, Hamas said it

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Speaker 4: has shown flexibility on those two demands, and the feelings

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Speaker 4: of the people are also bitterly sweet, as they are

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Speaker 4: still cautious because this is only the first phase. They

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Speaker 4: are not sure if they will make it to the

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Speaker 4: second phase of the deal or if the thinks will.

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Speaker 1: Collapse, and so there's a fear that if those more

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Speaker 1: complicated talks fall apart, the ceasefire could be lifted and

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Speaker 1: fighting would resume.

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Speaker 4: What I can tell of the I mean that chances

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Speaker 4: of collapse are more than the chances of success in

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Speaker 4: this deal.

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Speaker 1: This first stage offers people time to breathe, to sleep,

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Speaker 1: to grieve. What kind of rebuilding could happen in this

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Speaker 1: phase or even in the next phase.

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Speaker 4: The building is not clear yet when it comes. Because

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Speaker 4: the level and the scale of destruction is unprecedented and

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Speaker 4: it requires huge amounts of funds and donations and logistically

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Speaker 4: support on the ground. The first phase doesn't address the

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Speaker 4: day one after the war, the next day of the

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Speaker 4: war in Gaza, who will be running the Gaza strip,

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Speaker 4: Will Hamas remain in power, will let share the power

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Speaker 4: with other parties the Palicinian authority. Based on what we

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Speaker 4: see in the deal, Hamas is now accepting that the

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Speaker 4: Israeli troops remain inside Gaza during the first phase of

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Speaker 4: the ceasefire, but the ground forces will be positioned along

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Speaker 4: Gaza Israeli border in above our zone, stretching from six

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Speaker 4: hundred meters to one kilometers in some areas. So without

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Speaker 4: a clear vision on who's gonna run Gaza after the war,

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Speaker 4: we are still far from the beginning of a reconstruction process,

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Speaker 4: but we are getting close to the process to estimate

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Speaker 4: and evaluate the damage.

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Speaker 1: What is a realistic timeline for a more systematic rebuilding

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Speaker 1: of Gaza to start and to get people back in

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Speaker 1: their homes in their cities.

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Speaker 4: There have been multiple reports and the studies about the

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Speaker 4: Gaza reconstruction. Most of those reports estimate that we are

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Speaker 4: years away from rebuilding and those years are needed just

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Speaker 4: to remove the robuilt. So I mean huge amounts of

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Speaker 4: the donation and the funds will go to the rabilic

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Speaker 4: clear rance and removal before the building starts, and other

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Speaker 4: reports suggest that this is alone is going to take

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Speaker 4: kay years.

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Speaker 1: Ethan Browner, the Israel Bureau Chief, says we'll know more

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Speaker 1: in the coming days and weeks about how negotiations for

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Speaker 1: a more lasting piece will go, and if this pause

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Speaker 1: in the fighting will hold, they will.

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Speaker 2: Begin the really difficult negotiation about the next phase. So

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Speaker 2: sometime in three to six weeks we should have an

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Speaker 2: indication of whether they're going to be getting anywhere in

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Speaker 2: terms of moving to the next phase.

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Speaker 3: There are these.

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Speaker 2: Deep divisions between the two and so in many ways

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Speaker 2: it's a tougher time for Hamas to get its way.

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Speaker 2: One question that I think we're facing is whether President

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Speaker 2: Trump will push Israel to do something to include the

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Speaker 2: Palestinian authority in order to lure Saudi Arabia into a

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Speaker 2: regional recognition of Israel and a relationship other.

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Speaker 3: Than there is right now. So it's hard to know

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Speaker 3: where it's going.

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Speaker 1: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.

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Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Julia Press and Alex Tie.

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Speaker 1: It was edited by our senior producer Naomi Shaven and

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Speaker 1: Greg White. It was mixed and sound designed by Alex Uguera.

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Speaker 1: It was fact checked by our editorial team. Our senior

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Speaker 1: editor is Elizabeth Ponso, Our executive producer is Napole Beamster

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Speaker 1: borg Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. If you

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