1
00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:13,080
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings.

2
00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:14,720
Speaker 2: The Crown is yours.

3
00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:17,680
Speaker 1: I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by one of my two faves,

4
00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,640
Speaker 1: the Prime Minister Stucky, along for the ride. Kendra is

5
00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:24,200
Speaker 1: still somewhere gallivanting around Europe. We did get a voice

6
00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:27,440
Speaker 1: message that has since disappeared, but we wish her well.

7
00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:30,360
Speaker 1: We'll chat with her on Sunday for the Week eight recap.

8
00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:34,640
Speaker 1: Another week in the NFL is upon us. On today's episode,

9
00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:38,200
Speaker 1: we're gonna submit our official plays for the week. We've

10
00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:40,760
Speaker 1: got our stat of the week as well our two

11
00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:44,600
Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen parlay. Some more public darlings that

12
00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:46,159
Speaker 1: are out there that you need to be aware of,

13
00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:48,280
Speaker 1: a couple of which I actually quite like this week.

14
00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,760
Speaker 1: Like and subscribe wherever it is you are tuned in.

15
00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,800
Speaker 1: Gambling scandals of plenty in the NBA, Stucky, I'm glad

16
00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,040
Speaker 1: that that's not anything we have to deal with over here.

17
00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,760
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised that that's not something you hear

18
00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,440
Speaker 1: about in in the NFL. It's like we haven't really

19
00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,440
Speaker 1: dealt with that much. It's been very much an NBA

20
00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:09,920
Speaker 1: driven thing. Terry Rose, You're arrested by the way, if

21
00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:11,039
Speaker 1: you haven't seen the news.

22
00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:13,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's a lot harder to do in

23
00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:17,600
Speaker 3: the NFL. I mean there's only seventeen games, the only one.

24
00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:19,800
Speaker 3: You know, you don't have the ball enough unless you're

25
00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,160
Speaker 3: like a quarterback. Quarterbacks make so much money, Like what

26
00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,040
Speaker 3: are you going to just start throwing incomplete passes? Like

27
00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,520
Speaker 3: if you're a basketball player, you feel like you can

28
00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:32,520
Speaker 3: you can, like if it's like prop driven, you can

29
00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,560
Speaker 3: like impact the prole or you can like impact the game.

30
00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:37,959
Speaker 3: Like even going back to some of the college scandals,

31
00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:39,760
Speaker 3: like you could go you could impact the game. It's

32
00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:41,520
Speaker 3: a point guard to make sure that you don't cover,

33
00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,559
Speaker 3: but you still win. As like a quarterback in the NFL,

34
00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:45,880
Speaker 3: Like what are you gonna do? Like you just throw

35
00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:49,080
Speaker 3: away called possessions, like you're gonna lose. So yeah, there's

36
00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:52,000
Speaker 3: there's It's just it's a whole different ballgame. It'd be

37
00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,320
Speaker 3: so much harder to do in the NFL. In football,

38
00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:58,120
Speaker 3: the only time it's happened before, like the college ranks

39
00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:02,320
Speaker 3: with quarterbacks, it's much easier to do in basketball. It

40
00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:04,440
Speaker 3: doesn't really surprise me. A lot of people are going

41
00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:09,080
Speaker 3: to point to legalization as a reason for this. I

42
00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:12,359
Speaker 3: actually have a different take, and it's that part of

43
00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:14,400
Speaker 3: the reason we're catching some of this stuff. Now, you

44
00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:19,160
Speaker 3: could say, like the prevalence of props and all that stuff,

45
00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:21,800
Speaker 3: maybe it is more widespread, But this stuff's been going

46
00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,640
Speaker 3: on forever and it would never get caught, and I

47
00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:27,800
Speaker 3: think it's now more likely to get caught. So I

48
00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,400
Speaker 3: think it's actually a good thing that these things actually

49
00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:34,480
Speaker 3: come to the forefront. So yeah, but not something we

50
00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:35,239
Speaker 3: have to worry about.

51
00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,200
Speaker 1: With the NFL a somewhat similar take on this, and

52
00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,000
Speaker 1: I think it makes me feel better as somebody that

53
00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,640
Speaker 1: in the NFL, in the NBA, in college, I tend

54
00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:47,639
Speaker 1: to lean more towards sides, and I think it is

55
00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,320
Speaker 1: when you had gambling scandals in the past, it would

56
00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,560
Speaker 1: be about game fixing. Now what you're seeing the scandals

57
00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,280
Speaker 1: are all built around props, and I think if you're

58
00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,160
Speaker 1: gonna be careful anywhere, if you live in fear of

59
00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:02,640
Speaker 1: any sort of fix, that's where the fixing takes place now.

60
00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:04,880
Speaker 1: I mean, and the NBA has been more of an

61
00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,640
Speaker 1: issue than the NFL, but it's just so hard to

62
00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:09,440
Speaker 1: fix a game.

63
00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I wouldn't live here of props like it's

64
00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:19,320
Speaker 3: it's not like it's completely widespread. You know, these are

65
00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:21,920
Speaker 3: one off things, so and then over like if you

66
00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:23,919
Speaker 3: happen to be on the wrong end of one, like

67
00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:26,000
Speaker 3: I mean, you would never know, but the chances are

68
00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:29,560
Speaker 3: they would you would just wash out over time. You

69
00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,280
Speaker 3: might be on the wrong side one or two and

70
00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,480
Speaker 3: the right side of the other. I wouldn't be afraid

71
00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:36,560
Speaker 3: of betting props because of that.

72
00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:39,760
Speaker 1: And remember, you can only fix an under, Okay, you can't.

73
00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:42,000
Speaker 1: You can't fix your way to thirty five points in

74
00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,720
Speaker 1: the NBA, So just keep that in mind. Don't be

75
00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:46,760
Speaker 1: scared to bet an under as well. Well's talk some

76
00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:49,800
Speaker 1: NFL bye weeks like crazy. This week six teams on buy.

77
00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:54,640
Speaker 1: Is your NFL betting card any lighter because of it?

78
00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:56,520
Speaker 2: I've noticed that I've been.

79
00:03:57,880 --> 00:03:59,720
Speaker 1: It's still have a lot out there, but it's it's

80
00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:02,520
Speaker 1: like less than it usually is with six teams not available.

81
00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:06,680
Speaker 3: I don't know, I mean I think this week, yeah,

82
00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,560
Speaker 3: it is. It really depends on the week, just depends

83
00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,600
Speaker 3: on what I like. This week. I think I only

84
00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:15,320
Speaker 3: have let me pull it up. I only have I

85
00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:19,720
Speaker 3: haven't even bet anything yet, so as zero bets. I

86
00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,040
Speaker 3: just I'm I know that I'm gonna bet like the Texans,

87
00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:25,800
Speaker 3: I'm trying to figure out where that number is gonna go,

88
00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,360
Speaker 3: Like with the Nico Collins news, like does it come

89
00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:33,159
Speaker 3: back a little bit? I'm gonna bet well. I do

90
00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:39,320
Speaker 3: have the Ravens already. I have them some money line

91
00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:43,440
Speaker 3: to close out some parlays, but I'm gonna bet them again.

92
00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:45,600
Speaker 3: It just depends on like is it gonna be with

93
00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,039
Speaker 3: Lamar or is it gonna be when the line comes

94
00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:53,360
Speaker 3: down with their backup. I am gonna bet the Jets.

95
00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:55,200
Speaker 3: I'm trying to determine if that's gonna go to seven

96
00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:59,640
Speaker 3: or not. I'm good about the Saints. Probably just bet

97
00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:04,440
Speaker 3: that at four and a half, and I'm probably gonna

98
00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:08,520
Speaker 3: bet the Commanders. That's about it. There's a lot of

99
00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,520
Speaker 3: injuries this week too, on top of the buye, so

100
00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:16,400
Speaker 3: that's probably why my volume is down a bit. But

101
00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:20,200
Speaker 3: right now I'm just number watching, like around key numbers

102
00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,039
Speaker 3: and trying to figure out with some of these injury news,

103
00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,200
Speaker 3: where is the market going to go, and trying to

104
00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:24,760
Speaker 3: time it right.

105
00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,280
Speaker 1: We saw that Saints number bounce around a little bit too,

106
00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:29,920
Speaker 1: so keep an eye on that. I've seen that. I've

107
00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:31,760
Speaker 1: seen three and a half's out there, four and a

108
00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,360
Speaker 1: half on draft Kings right now. So definitely shop around

109
00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,400
Speaker 1: if you are, depending on what side you're on as

110
00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:40,320
Speaker 1: far as that goes, Okay, we got a lot more

111
00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,200
Speaker 1: to get to, but we cannot dive into a Thursday

112
00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:48,240
Speaker 1: episode without your bizarre, weird random question of the week.

113
00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:49,559
Speaker 3: Hey, this is a dumb question.

114
00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:54,320
Speaker 2: Let me ask you a personal question kind of question

115
00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:55,719
Speaker 2: is that is question?

116
00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:02,080
Speaker 3: In honor of Halloween coming up? What is the most

117
00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:05,640
Speaker 3: scared you've ever been in your life? Like I was,

118
00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,000
Speaker 3: I was robbed at gun pointing pistol whip once when

119
00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:13,000
Speaker 3: I was sixteen. The top I wasn't that scared. I

120
00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:15,120
Speaker 3: wasn't that scared. I think it was like adrenaline and

121
00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:18,440
Speaker 3: like it was just in the moment scared. I really wasn't.

122
00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:22,520
Speaker 3: It was crazy, like it was scary, but like my

123
00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:26,600
Speaker 3: I wasn't like completely petrified. I went into like you know,

124
00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:27,800
Speaker 3: survival mode.

125
00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:28,039
Speaker 2: It was.

126
00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,680
Speaker 3: It was crazy. I can't really explain it, but I

127
00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:33,560
Speaker 3: think the most scared ever was I think I told

128
00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:37,360
Speaker 3: the story on another podcast before. When I was sixteen,

129
00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:41,479
Speaker 3: my parents were divorced. My mom, my brother, and sister

130
00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,520
Speaker 3: went down to the beach in the summer, and I said,

131
00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:46,920
Speaker 3: I'm going to stay at my dad's, but I just

132
00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:51,080
Speaker 3: stayed at my mom's and then I just threw the parties,

133
00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,800
Speaker 3: like just big parties all weekend and they got like

134
00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:57,800
Speaker 3: completely out of hand. So it was Sunday night and

135
00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:00,040
Speaker 3: I was just I stayed by myself. My girlfriend the

136
00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:01,680
Speaker 3: time came over. I think we like watched a movie

137
00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,520
Speaker 3: and she left, and then I was sitting in my

138
00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:10,320
Speaker 3: family room and I swore that someone was out behind

139
00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:13,720
Speaker 3: my deck behind just out there, and I'm a night out.

140
00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:14,960
Speaker 3: I've been a night on my whole life. This is

141
00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:17,000
Speaker 3: like two and two, two thirty in the morning, and

142
00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:20,720
Speaker 3: I swore I kept seeing someone, and I'm like, I'm

143
00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:22,160
Speaker 3: doing my mind just playing tricks on me. I just

144
00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,080
Speaker 3: kept telling myself that. So then it was like three

145
00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:26,560
Speaker 3: thirty in the morning and I was like, all right,

146
00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:28,680
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go off to bed, and I was still

147
00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,840
Speaker 3: freaked out enough where like I put the lights on

148
00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,880
Speaker 3: like in front of me. I just remember being freaked out,

149
00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:40,440
Speaker 3: turned my light off above my bed, lay down, and

150
00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:49,320
Speaker 3: within ninety seconds my house alarm goes whoo I said,

151
00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:53,280
Speaker 3: Oh my god. So I was already freaked out, and

152
00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,000
Speaker 3: the house alarm went off. I ran to the stairs,

153
00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,000
Speaker 3: top of the stairs, and I was like trying to

154
00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,480
Speaker 3: see if I could hear anything, but the alarm was

155
00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:06,600
Speaker 3: so loud. I sprinted down my stairs, out my front door,

156
00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:11,280
Speaker 3: straight to my neighbor's house. It was my good friends

157
00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:13,840
Speaker 3: who were my age, were like sixteen seventeen, and their

158
00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,520
Speaker 3: dad has like hundreds and hundred He's like a huge

159
00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:19,760
Speaker 3: gun collection. I was banging on the door. They came, answered,

160
00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:23,040
Speaker 3: he got a gun, came out. No one was there.

161
00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:26,320
Speaker 3: We went back around the basement. The back basement window

162
00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:30,640
Speaker 3: was broken, so someone was watching me, and I think

163
00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,199
Speaker 3: it was just someone who someone like older, sketchy person

164
00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,120
Speaker 3: who came to the party and then was like, oh,

165
00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,680
Speaker 3: this kid's parents aren't home, so I think they'd planned

166
00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:44,120
Speaker 3: to rob me the next night. So then that night

167
00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:48,600
Speaker 3: I slept at my neighbor's house and I just watched

168
00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:50,640
Speaker 3: over the house because I'm not even supposed to be

169
00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:52,920
Speaker 3: at the house, and I'm like, oh my god, if

170
00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:54,560
Speaker 3: I just if the house gets robbed and I'm not

171
00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:56,000
Speaker 3: even there. So I just sat and stared at the

172
00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:59,920
Speaker 3: house for hours until daylight and then I went to sleep.

173
00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:05,800
Speaker 3: We got the window fixed, and no one ever knew

174
00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,560
Speaker 3: until I told my parents, Like, I don't know, three

175
00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:12,720
Speaker 3: four years later. They never found out. The alarm company

176
00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,560
Speaker 3: never came nothing. I don't This is like twenty twenty

177
00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:19,480
Speaker 3: five years ago, so I don't know how the alarms worked.

178
00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,000
Speaker 3: It was like not connected to a if it was

179
00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:22,400
Speaker 3: just like a.

180
00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:26,640
Speaker 1: Noise emergency contact. It doesn't sounds like they weren't quite

181
00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:27,600
Speaker 1: buttoned up yet.

182
00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,640
Speaker 3: No, but they never found out. My mom said she

183
00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:33,120
Speaker 3: knew that I had I had parties because obviously, like

184
00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:35,840
Speaker 3: you try to fix everything, yeah you can't, so but

185
00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:38,080
Speaker 3: she never knew about the house. And I felt so

186
00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:39,920
Speaker 3: guilty for weeks because I was like, I should tell

187
00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:43,240
Speaker 3: her because I'm like, what if they come back, right,

188
00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:47,199
Speaker 3: I'm not saying anything, But I lied about the entire weekend.

189
00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:49,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, that was the most scout I've ever been

190
00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:51,200
Speaker 3: because I was at Zebra having before. We were so

191
00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:53,319
Speaker 3: freaked out and you think something's going on, but you

192
00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:55,200
Speaker 3: can mention yourself, mine's just playing tricks on you. And

193
00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:59,040
Speaker 3: then actually no, someone was watching you out back, which

194
00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,160
Speaker 3: is freaky enough, but and to have the alarm go off,

195
00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,040
Speaker 3: and that was that was crazy? How about you?

196
00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:07,640
Speaker 1: So your questions are always mind benders to me because

197
00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,400
Speaker 1: I'll think of a better answer, like two days from now.

198
00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:12,200
Speaker 1: I think I've done that with every question you've asked,

199
00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:13,640
Speaker 1: But the first one that comes to mind for me.

200
00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:15,840
Speaker 2: I'm driving up to Orlando.

201
00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,000
Speaker 1: I had just moved up here and I went back

202
00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,040
Speaker 1: down to get some stuff from my parents in South Florida.

203
00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:23,959
Speaker 1: I'm on the Turnpike going north and all of a sudden,

204
00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:26,720
Speaker 1: I'm driving a car that it was my first car,

205
00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,000
Speaker 1: like everybody else, was a shitty car that would top

206
00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:30,640
Speaker 1: out at sixty miles per hour.

207
00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:31,640
Speaker 2: This thing.

208
00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:33,400
Speaker 1: All of a sudden, I look at this sphenometer on

209
00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,880
Speaker 1: the highway. It goes up to ninety and I'm thinking

210
00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,400
Speaker 1: something is wrong. And all of a sudden, I see

211
00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,960
Speaker 1: a tire with an axle attached to it that is

212
00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,760
Speaker 1: flying in front of my car, and I'm like, that's

213
00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,760
Speaker 1: gotta be me, and my car starts wabbling. This all

214
00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:48,960
Speaker 1: happens in slow mo, but it probably took like five

215
00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:52,360
Speaker 1: seconds wobbling in a busy highway, and I thought for

216
00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:54,040
Speaker 1: sure this was the end. I was just going to

217
00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:57,720
Speaker 1: crash into the side of the of the highway and

218
00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:01,840
Speaker 1: hit a car. Mike's car stops dead in its tracks

219
00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:05,240
Speaker 1: and cars start whizzing by me. I didn't get hurt,

220
00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,439
Speaker 1: but I had three tires and I had to get towed.

221
00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:12,320
Speaker 3: Wow, that's an irrational fear of mine. Is a tire

222
00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,040
Speaker 3: coming off like an eighteen it happens.

223
00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, it was very If you've ever seen Final

224
00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,640
Speaker 1: Destination the movie, it kind of felt it felt very

225
00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,320
Speaker 1: much like that, especially with the axle attached too. Not

226
00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,959
Speaker 1: only was I scared for myself, but that could have

227
00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:30,000
Speaker 1: killed somebody. Yep, all right, trimply unbelievable stat of the leak.

228
00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:33,000
Speaker 1: Let's get to it. Courtesy of the Primer, A weekly

229
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,760
Speaker 1: guide into all the action from our director of research,

230
00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:38,360
Speaker 1: who you will hear from in a moment, Evan Abrams.

231
00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:42,640
Speaker 1: Through seven weeks, the NFC is twenty six and twelve

232
00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:46,640
Speaker 1: against the spread, and it's thirty eight games against the AFC.

233
00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:51,079
Speaker 1: This season, the NFC is five hundred, sitting at five

234
00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:53,960
Speaker 1: hundred ats or better in all seven weeks of the year.

235
00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,680
Speaker 1: Excuse me, this season a one hundred dollars better, taking

236
00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:01,880
Speaker 1: every NFC team against the AFC would be up one thousand,

237
00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,880
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty eight dollars. That's an ROI of

238
00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:10,240
Speaker 1: thirty one point three percent. The NFC that much better

239
00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:14,160
Speaker 1: than the AFC right now. The numbers back it up,

240
00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,520
Speaker 1: and it does feel like that's the case. With everything

241
00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:19,960
Speaker 1: that's going on injury wise, with these quarterbacks in the AFC.

242
00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:23,160
Speaker 1: The Bills have been a little bit shaky lately, it

243
00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:25,920
Speaker 1: feels like the NFC is a superior conference at the moment.

244
00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:27,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's probably there's a lot of I mean,

245
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:29,800
Speaker 3: it's a sample size of thirty eight games, but I

246
00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:33,880
Speaker 3: do think the NFC is better. That makes me a

247
00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:36,719
Speaker 3: little nervous, but maybe it's due to come back. But

248
00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:44,040
Speaker 3: you'd have the Vikings this week, the Bears, who else

249
00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:52,520
Speaker 3: the Panthers, the and the Cowboys and the Packers are

250
00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:54,960
Speaker 3: the NFC teams to take on AFC. I do think

251
00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:59,679
Speaker 3: the NFC is clearly better top to bottom than the

252
00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:03,199
Speaker 3: af SEE right now, especially when you factor in all

253
00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:07,280
Speaker 3: the injuries. But I would imagine that probably evens out

254
00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,040
Speaker 3: over the course of the year. But yeah, the AFC

255
00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:12,840
Speaker 3: feels like what the NFC was a few years ago.

256
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,400
Speaker 2: Evan, you were the one that put that stat together.

257
00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:16,600
Speaker 2: Is that news or noise?

258
00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:17,839
Speaker 4: It's noise.

259
00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:19,000
Speaker 5: I think it has a lot to do with injuries,

260
00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,000
Speaker 5: especially injuries at the top of the AFC, like the

261
00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:24,920
Speaker 5: Baltimore is the Buffalo losing to in a row, Like

262
00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:27,160
Speaker 5: the best teams with the best quarterbacks that we say

263
00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:28,880
Speaker 5: always go to the Super Bowl except for you know,

264
00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:29,760
Speaker 5: the Eagle stuff.

265
00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:32,920
Speaker 4: They're all hurt, and I think that has a big

266
00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:34,000
Speaker 4: impact on this.

267
00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:38,000
Speaker 5: I also think the NFC teams at the top are

268
00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:42,360
Speaker 5: just more complete this year, like better defenses, like like

269
00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:43,760
Speaker 5: pretty good offenses.

270
00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:45,679
Speaker 4: I just think as a whole they're playing well.

271
00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:47,680
Speaker 5: I'd have to look deeper to see if there's any

272
00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:50,000
Speaker 5: other reasons why, But at the moment, I think there's

273
00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,400
Speaker 5: eight matchups this week, so you know, I wouldn't be

274
00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:55,480
Speaker 5: shocked if this is the week it reversed or at

275
00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:57,880
Speaker 5: least you saw like an even four and four split.

276
00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:02,400
Speaker 1: But interesting nonetheless, another one that I saw that I

277
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:06,560
Speaker 1: absolutely love and it does point in a different direction

278
00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:08,880
Speaker 1: from where I'm headed with one game this weekend. But

279
00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:12,559
Speaker 1: stats are stats. I can't change them. Since twenty eighteen,

280
00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:16,160
Speaker 1: teams who are on a four plus game winning streak

281
00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,720
Speaker 1: against the spread and straight up who didn't make the

282
00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:25,480
Speaker 1: playoffs the year prior are fourteen twenty six and one ats.

283
00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:30,080
Speaker 1: That includes two teams, the Patriots and the Bears. I

284
00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,440
Speaker 1: am not betting the Pats this week. I do have

285
00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,600
Speaker 1: a bet on Chicago at plus six and a half.

286
00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,280
Speaker 1: That was one of my favorite plays early in the week,

287
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:40,760
Speaker 1: just trying to get ahead of some potential Lamar news

288
00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,200
Speaker 1: of him not playing looks like he's going to but

289
00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,880
Speaker 1: even still, I like some value on I see some

290
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:48,440
Speaker 1: value in Chicago.

291
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,160
Speaker 2: Head to head for there is Yeah, what do we

292
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,400
Speaker 2: got go? I'll still sit with it.

293
00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,800
Speaker 1: I'm good with six and a half, honestly, Like I

294
00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:57,200
Speaker 1: can't even get there with Lamar.

295
00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,920
Speaker 3: You gotta send me crab cakes, frozen crab cakes when

296
00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:02,600
Speaker 3: the Ravens went by seven plus.

297
00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:04,520
Speaker 2: Oh, I'll take that. On the other side, I love

298
00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:05,200
Speaker 2: crab cakes.

299
00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:08,520
Speaker 3: Okay, all right it scrap cake be Are we both

300
00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:09,240
Speaker 3: from Baltimore?

301
00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,640
Speaker 2: By the way, I'm I'm not.

302
00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,720
Speaker 3: I'm from I'm from like I'm from outside of Philly,

303
00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:20,840
Speaker 3: between Philly and Baltimore, but uh no, I'm not from Baltimore.

304
00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:25,800
Speaker 3: I had season tickets for thirteen years, but I uh no,

305
00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:27,240
Speaker 3: I'm not from Baltimore.

306
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:30,600
Speaker 1: But unfortunately I was born there in eighty five and

307
00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,280
Speaker 1: I left before the Those are my choice. I was

308
00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:36,280
Speaker 1: a kid, but I left before the Ravens came around

309
00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,360
Speaker 1: and became a Dolphins fan as the Ravens were coming

310
00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,720
Speaker 1: into existence. So I have love for the Ravens. I

311
00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:45,520
Speaker 1: am an Orioles fan, but Scott stuck with the shitty Dolphins.

312
00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:48,880
Speaker 1: But as far as that, as far as.

313
00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,800
Speaker 3: They go on getting back to the NC I see

314
00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:52,560
Speaker 3: thing real quick. Yeah, should you look in the market

315
00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:56,560
Speaker 3: right now, just market power ratings for the top six

316
00:15:56,600 --> 00:16:01,000
Speaker 3: teams in the market are in the NF have the

317
00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,680
Speaker 3: Lions Packers. This is just current right now, so it

318
00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:09,840
Speaker 3: also accounts for injuries. Lions Packers, Rams and Eagles, Bills

319
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:13,440
Speaker 3: and Ravens aren't too far behind now that they're getting healthier,

320
00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:17,800
Speaker 3: but they're still TVD on Lamar Jackson's status. But that

321
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:19,760
Speaker 3: for the top six in the NFC, it has not

322
00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 3: been like that for a while. I mean for the

323
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,080
Speaker 3: past couple of years it's Chiefs, Ravens and Bills at

324
00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:29,280
Speaker 3: the top and clearly at the top. So yeah, the

325
00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:34,200
Speaker 3: top of the NFC is definitely rising.

326
00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:38,560
Speaker 2: So we're going head to head on Ravens Bears.

327
00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,080
Speaker 1: I will obviously feel better about this if there's some

328
00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,320
Speaker 1: late news that Lamar isn't gonna play, or if we

329
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:47,360
Speaker 1: see Lamar play but his hamstring is still giving him issues.

330
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:49,640
Speaker 1: All of those things are factors here, and I think

331
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,640
Speaker 1: the Bears are legitimately good this year, so even just

332
00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:56,400
Speaker 1: getting them at plus six plus six and a half,

333
00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,920
Speaker 1: I'm good with. I understand that this is very this

334
00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:03,800
Speaker 1: this is the ultimate get right spot of all the

335
00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,120
Speaker 1: teams this week. You're talking about a Super Bowl contender

336
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,480
Speaker 1: who right now is battling for a top pick in

337
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:13,040
Speaker 1: the NFL Draft, getting star players back, and none bigger

338
00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,280
Speaker 1: than a guy that's worth about seven points to the spread.

339
00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:16,159
Speaker 2: Totally get that.

340
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,800
Speaker 1: I'm betting against some major get right action here, but

341
00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:21,880
Speaker 1: I'm good with that. As far as the other game

342
00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,119
Speaker 1: that this applies in terms of the teams that are

343
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:27,480
Speaker 1: four to oh ats over the last four weeks that

344
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:30,439
Speaker 1: didn't make the playoffs last year, the Patriots are the

345
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,040
Speaker 1: other one. They're favored by seven against the Browns. I

346
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,080
Speaker 1: have no action on this game. I'm not sure where

347
00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,639
Speaker 1: you stand on this. This is a really interesting one.

348
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,440
Speaker 1: The Browns haven't won a game away from home yet,

349
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,760
Speaker 1: no surprise, they're bad. The Patriots are tied with the

350
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,560
Speaker 1: Broncos and Bears with a four game winning streak. That's

351
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 1: the longest current streak in the NFL. Drake May is

352
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,639
Speaker 1: the third most sacked quarterback in the NFL. That's a

353
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,440
Speaker 1: bad matchup going against the Browns defense that can get

354
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:58,920
Speaker 1: after the passer. Are we overvaluing the Browns though, because

355
00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 1: here we go. Power ratings probably have this closer to six,

356
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,800
Speaker 1: and you're paying attacks on how good New England has been.

357
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,560
Speaker 1: But are we overvaluing Cleveland based on a blowout win

358
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:12,480
Speaker 1: against the sinking ship in Miami? Conklin also back on

359
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,000
Speaker 1: the offensive line, This is a really interesting read. Probably

360
00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:15,879
Speaker 1: a stay away from me.

361
00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I make it right around seven, So

362
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:22,080
Speaker 3: nothing to do here. I mean, I want to see

363
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,360
Speaker 3: Drake Mays look fantastic, but he hasn't really faced any

364
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 3: good defenses. So I mean, if you look at the

365
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,640
Speaker 3: schedule of defenses they faced, this will be a good test.

366
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,560
Speaker 3: But the Browns defense isn't the same animal away from home.

367
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,199
Speaker 3: It's additional. It's just not a great matchup for the Browns,

368
00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,720
Speaker 3: which is why I can't get there or can't look

369
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:42,720
Speaker 3: their way. The Browns want to run the ball, obviously

370
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,159
Speaker 3: with Jyllan Gabriel, and they're receiving mm. It's not a

371
00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:49,280
Speaker 3: great passing offense, but the Pats run defense is very good.

372
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 3: You got to throw to move the ball on them.

373
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 3: That's not the Browns strong suit. So yeah, and then

374
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 3: in order to both of these defenses are susceptible to

375
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 3: explosive passes. Well, guess what, Drake May's been one of

376
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 3: the best deep ball throwers, and they do have an

377
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:08,800
Speaker 3: explosive passing offense, and the Browns certainly do not. So

378
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,720
Speaker 3: I do not think it's a good matchup for Cleveland,

379
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,439
Speaker 3: but I am interested. I'm close to market, and I

380
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,280
Speaker 3: am interested to see Drake May go up against a

381
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,480
Speaker 3: much better defense on paper than what he's seen for

382
00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:23,720
Speaker 3: the most part so far this season. But you can't

383
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,040
Speaker 3: argue with his numbers, even adjusting for opponent, he's been

384
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:29,000
Speaker 3: one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

385
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 1: Still to come to Kings and a Queen the parlay

386
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,880
Speaker 1: gets nominated this week, But first a word from our

387
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,680
Speaker 1: first Lady as she chats about DraftKings.

388
00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,120
Speaker 6: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where

389
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,960
Speaker 6: new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred

390
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 6: dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins and

391
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,679
Speaker 6: three months of NBA League Pass to get started. Use

392
00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 6: promo Code of Favorites when signing up with DraftKings. Again,

393
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,080
Speaker 6: he used Code Favorites when signing up and bet five

394
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,159
Speaker 6: bucks to get three hundred back and bonus bets if

395
00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 6: your bet wins plus three months of NBA League. So

396
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:01,480
Speaker 6: the crown is yours.

397
00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:04,239
Speaker 1: Kendrew's not here to waffle on a pick for her

398
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 1: weekly pickle, So I will ask you, among all the

399
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 1: games on the board this week, what has been the

400
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 1: toughest for you to convince yourself in either direction to

401
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:15,679
Speaker 1: get any sort of action on.

402
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:18,960
Speaker 3: I mean, if I have to convince myself, I'm staying away.

403
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,359
Speaker 3: That's how it always is. So like Patriots, I just

404
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 3: explained my thinking with Patriots Browns, that's a stay away.

405
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 1: Let me let me ask this in a different way

406
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 1: where you have been convinced in your mind on a

407
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 1: side and then have also convinced yourself on the other side.

408
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,000
Speaker 1: So not one that you look at and say I

409
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,159
Speaker 1: have no read on this one where you've had to

410
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,120
Speaker 1: read and then that read has shifted. I think that's

411
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,919
Speaker 1: that's the bigger pickle for any better is thinking that

412
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 1: they have a good read on a game and then

413
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 1: starting to look at it in a completely opposite direction.

414
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 3: I mean Cowboys Broncos. I can see the case for

415
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 3: both sides. I mean eating bo Nicks to win by

416
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:04,119
Speaker 3: margin not great, but the Cowboys offense and look, the

417
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,959
Speaker 3: Cowboys offense has been incredible. Can Denver actually keep up?

418
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 3: Then again, look at some of Dallas's results on the

419
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 3: road to get blown out at Chicago, lose that Carolina,

420
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:17,399
Speaker 3: This defense is still really bad. So I could see

421
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 3: both sides of the coin there. Titans Colts was an

422
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 3: easy pass for me, like the Indies should score at Will.

423
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 3: I did like some of the things Tennessee did with

424
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,879
Speaker 3: simplifying their offense last week. But Jeffrey Simmons Sneid probably

425
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 3: going to be out. I don't know how they get stops,

426
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 3: but I laying I don't want to lay fourteen and

427
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 3: a half in the NFL. Like the Colts could be

428
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 3: up twenty one, that's a complete blowout in the NFL,

429
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 3: and Tennessee could score a garbage some touchdown and cover

430
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 3: like there's it's not college football, there's no incentive to

431
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 3: blow teams out, and so like, I don't think I would.

432
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 3: I don't think I've ever laid over two touchdowns in

433
00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:00,159
Speaker 3: the NFL. So that was an easy, easy crossout out.

434
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,440
Speaker 1: What about team total over that was one that I

435
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 1: was looking at if you want to bet the.

436
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 3: Game script dependent though, like because Tennessee can't score and

437
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 3: then like it's what's what's their team total?

438
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 2: Thirty and a half?

439
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, so like if it's like twenty eight three and

440
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 3: then it just dies and or like there's a couple

441
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:21,120
Speaker 3: of fields. I don't know. Team totals aren't my specialty.

442
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 3: I mean I would think that Indian doors against that

443
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,479
Speaker 3: defense without I mean, with thatou Jeffrey Simmons, you can

444
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 3: do whatever you want. That's snead. They traded brownly. That

445
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 3: defense is a shell you and Tennessee actually and does

446
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 3: go fast. They use tempo, so that helps your case

447
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:42,399
Speaker 3: as well. But no, I would only look over in

448
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 3: that case. Dolphins Falcons is a like I'm not betting

449
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 3: the Dolphins, but I'm not probably not laying seven and

450
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 3: a half of the Atlanta and Bill's Panthers is one

451
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 3: where I think it's completely dependent on what the Bills

452
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,959
Speaker 3: op to do out of the buy. Do they come

453
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 3: out and say we're gonna throw And if they do

454
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 3: and just let Josh Allen cook, then I think they're

455
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 3: gonna move the ball. It will and I think they're

456
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 3: gonna cover, and I think the game probably goes over.

457
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 3: But if they try to run it, Carolina is at

458
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,119
Speaker 3: a top three run defense this year. The run defense

459
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 3: has been tremendous, so if they try to run it,

460
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 3: then all of a sudden, Carolina is getting stops. Carolina

461
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,640
Speaker 3: can keep running it. The Bill's run defense has been bad,

462
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,239
Speaker 3: the Carolina run offense has been good. They can keep

463
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 3: running it, keep the ball away from Allen, stay in

464
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 3: the game. But if Bills come out and throw it,

465
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 3: get a lead for Sandy Dalton to have to throw,

466
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 3: That's where I think Carolina get in trouble. So I

467
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 3: think it really comes down to the Bills approach and

468
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 3: how they call plays in this game and their run

469
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 3: pass split. Because they've been very run heavy. I think

470
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 3: this is a game where you want to be very

471
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 3: pass heavy. Do I trust them or know either way

472
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 3: I don't, so that's an easy pass.

473
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, we are.

474
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 1: We're in lockstep with some of these games that are

475
00:23:54,800 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 1: giving us fits. Cowboys Broncos. Has me I've gone early

476
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 1: in the week, I was convinced I was going to

477
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 1: bet the Broncos. I've gone completely in the other direction,

478
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 1: and then I end up going I don't want to

479
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 1: go against how strongly I felt earlier in the week.

480
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: Think about some of the factors here, how this points

481
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 1: in both directions. The Broncos are unbeaten at home, but

482
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 1: they're also one in two ats at home, so they're winning.

483
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 1: But they're a little overvalued. I think people perhaps overvaluing

484
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 1: that home field advantage. We viewed Denver as one of

485
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: the top home field advantages in the NFL, but perhaps

486
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 1: that's getting baked in a little bit too much. You

487
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 1: also had Denver with this epic comeback last week. Evan

488
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 1: pointed this out in the article Teams that make the

489
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: sort of comeback that the Broncos made last week against

490
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 1: the Giants cover at a rate of forty three percent

491
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 1: next the very next week over the last ten years.

492
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 1: No surprise there, because it's so unlikely to do that,

493
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: and it probably means that you're not really that good

494
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,359
Speaker 1: in the first place. So that leads you the way

495
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 1: of the Cowboys. The public has been getting absolutely crushed

496
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 1: this year. Eighty three percent of the bets, ninety two

497
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 1: percent of the money on the Cowboys. Only San Francisco

498
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: is receiving more action this week. That points me in

499
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 1: the direction of the Broncos is fading the public.

500
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 3: Also, if you want to throw another one, no, but

501
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,679
Speaker 3: they do last week they were like ten and oh,

502
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 3: so you never know. I don't want to base too

503
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 3: much off that. I would say that that.

504
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 1: Has been my most tried and true method this year,

505
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 1: is getting back to the well on fade public sentiment.

506
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:23,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that that abs and foods. I mean

507
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 3: you look, books can do that because they have they're

508
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 3: getting well, they're getting plus one ten. You have to

509
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 3: have minus one then, and you got to you gotta

510
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 3: do it on every single bet. So I mean with

511
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 3: the Cowboys, yeah, I mean, look, the Broncos of one,

512
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 3: like you mentioned the comeback, the Broncs had that crazy

513
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 3: comeback as the Eagles lay an egg the next week

514
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:42,919
Speaker 3: against the Jets. I mean their wins this year have

515
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 3: come by four two one. They lost by one, They

516
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,400
Speaker 3: lost by three. They only beat the Titans by eight.

517
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 3: You know, their one blaw win came over the Bengals

518
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 3: with Jake Browning basically just vomiting on himself. Like, this

519
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 3: is a team that's just gonna play close games, like

520
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 3: not really cable of building margin. And the Cowboys can

521
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 3: keep up with pretty much anybody, and the certain haven't

522
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 3: certained he isn't as valuable against a team like the

523
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,439
Speaker 3: Cowboys because they have two stug receivers. Right, a lot

524
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 3: of times he's eliminating one of them. But yeah, I

525
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 3: could I could see that going either way. But if

526
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 3: I had to at three and a half, it'd be

527
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 3: Dallas or nothing. The other game, yeah, the last one

528
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 3: is Eagles Giants. I kind of like the Eagles, but

529
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 3: I hate laying seven and a half with them, So

530
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 3: everything's number depended as seven. I like the Eagles, but

531
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 3: even at I don't like laying seven with Eagles. Like,

532
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 3: this is a team that get their offense goes into

533
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 3: just long lulls. Once they have a lead, they kind

534
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,159
Speaker 3: of sit on it. This is not a team that

535
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 3: you really want to light points with, but it's a

536
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 3: really good spot. The Giants also have some potential injuries

537
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 3: on defense that I'm monitoring, but and that's really what

538
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 3: cost in the game against Denver. They lost two guys

539
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 3: in the secondary and Denver ended up coming back. But

540
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 3: the Eagles, they just played the Giants a couple of

541
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,120
Speaker 3: weeks ago. The Giants have been dominating in first quarters.

542
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 3: They've been the second best team in the first quarter

543
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 3: EPA wise since Dart took over. Only team better is

544
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 3: the Chiefs. And what is that? So like their script

545
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 3: and everything early with this unique Dart offense has been

546
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 3: very good and that enables them to play how they

547
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 3: need to keep playing because they have a lead. The

548
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 3: problem is they just played the Eagles two weeks ago.

549
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 3: The Eagles kind of know what this Giants offense look

550
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 3: looks like, so and it's a tough spot for the Giants.

551
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 3: How do they bounce back from that meltdown? I don't know.

552
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 3: But if the Eagles are prepared and they get ahead

553
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 3: of the Giants, I don't think the Giants are built

554
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 3: to come from behind. The Giants run defense is really bad.

555
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 3: I think, you know, the Eagles might have found something

556
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 3: on offense last week, going under center more actually throwing

557
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 3: it downfield. So yeah, you know the Eagles, this is good.

558
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 3: They're gonna be They're gonna be ready for this game

559
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 3: because the Giants basically embarrassed them on national TV. We're

560
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 3: talking all kinds of shit. So I think it's a

561
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 3: really good spot for the Eagles. But it's not a

562
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 3: team I love needing to win by a ten plus,

563
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 3: so that one is has been a little bit of

564
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 3: a pickle as well.

565
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 1: I think it's important to talk this stuff through because

566
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 1: this is what every better goes through, is these sort

567
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 1: of back and forth.

568
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 2: There's a lot of games that are on the card.

569
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 1: We have our picks with full conviction coming up in

570
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: a moment, Evan, before we move off of the waffling

571
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 1: the pickling, is there one that you're looking at or

572
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 1: a couple where you say, I just don't even know

573
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 1: what to do with that.

574
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 4: I'll just say this off the bat.

575
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 5: Eight games on the card this week of thirteen games

576
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 5: with the spread of six or more, which is just

577
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 5: unbelievable this time of year. Has to do with injuries

578
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 5: a lot of different factors. But if you look at

579
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 5: like seven of those eight teams that are those big

580
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 5: of a favorites, there is like something inherently odd and

581
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 5: not something we're used to about those teams, which is

582
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 5: why I think it's difficult to lay points. So one

583
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 5: by one quickly, it's Flacco and Cincinnati. It's the Ravens

584
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 5: getting back all of their roster, something we haven't seen.

585
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 5: It's like Pennix in Atlanta. I don't know if you

586
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 5: can do that. Philly doesn't cover in any situation really easily.

587
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 5: New England's really new at this Daniel Jones is laying

588
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 5: fourteen points, like each situation is something that I don't

589
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 5: think anyone is like comfortable with. I mean, I think

590
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 5: numbers tell you to do one thing, but there's also

591
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 5: a gut feeling about a bet.

592
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 4: In what you've seen, and all of those favorites make

593
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 4: me nervous.

594
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm on the flip side. It's like, oh,

595
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 3: but then you got a bet the Titans. Oh then

596
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 3: you got a bet Gaber on the road, right.

597
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 5: So very difficult spread week, yeah, right, or the difficult

598
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 5: spread week, or the.

599
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 1: Or the disaster that is the Miami Dolphins. And you

600
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 1: know the thing is, I want to make sure that

601
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: I lay You're in the right context with that, because

602
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 1: they bottomed out against the Browns. The Dolphins have been competitive,

603
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 1: and if you listen to the narrative from the talking

604
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 1: heads this week, it is as if this team has

605
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: quit on Mike McDaniel for a month. That's not true.

606
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 1: It's been one bad week and it was one bad

607
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 1: week in weather, and Tua has never played well in

608
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 1: those situations. So I do think that if you're if

609
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: you're just taking the number and talking about that game specifically,

610
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: the Dolphins are probably the right side. I do have

611
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: the Falcons teas down to one, so I'm gonna I'm

612
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: gonna off of that.

613
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 2: Let's talk luck for a moment.

614
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: Nick Giffen does phenomenal work with his weekly luck rankings,

615
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: and we've got some deltas that are out there. Jets

616
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: at Bengals A grade on the New York Jets. Giants

617
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 1: at Eagles A grade on the New York Giants, even

618
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 1: though they beat the Eagles pretty soundly just a couple

619
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 1: of weeks ago. I was surprised, not surprised in the

620
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: first one. The Bengals obviously feel like they have a

621
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 1: rabbit's foot and the Jets have the opposite. But the

622
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 1: Giants an unlucky team. I know last week they lost

623
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 1: to Denver in sort of a weird way, but the.

624
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 3: Unluckiest loss of the year besides Tennessee. And they also

625
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 3: were unlucky against the Cowboys.

626
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 2: But they've been playing great usually.

627
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 3: What I'm saying, they put all that's looking at is

628
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 3: how many wins you should have versus how many wins

629
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 3: you do, so like the Eagles should have. I mean,

630
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 3: Eagles deserve to lose by like a touchdown. Last week

631
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 3: against Minnesota, they were out success rate by like twelve percent.

632
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 3: They had to pick. The Vikings had one touchdown in

633
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 3: six red zone trips. Uh you know there was a

634
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 3: drop touchdown, a tall touch up. Everything went wrong. The

635
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 3: Eagles did face all their damage on like fourth down bombs,

636
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 3: so that should have been a loss. The Rams game

637
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 3: obviously should have been a loss. They went on a

638
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 3: blocked fuel goal after they were down by twenty. So yeah,

639
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 3: the Eagles should have like a couple of fewer losses

640
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 3: and like easily could have two fewer losses.

641
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: And you sound like somebody that's lost money betting on

642
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 1: the Eagles.

643
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 3: Mon I did. I lost the Rams and the Vikings game,

644
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 3: which were graded like clear winners.

645
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 2: Which you can hear that, you can hear the salt

646
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 2: in the vinegar, but what are.

647
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 3: You gonna do? Also, I had the Giants against the

648
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 3: Cowboys to close out a round robin. I just needed

649
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 3: them to win and then they somehow outed down on

650
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 3: the loss in overtime. No joy. But uh yeah, so

651
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 3: that's all that's looking at. So that doesn't surprise me.

652
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 3: Like the Giants have been on I mean, last week

653
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 3: they had like a ninety win probably only one point,

654
00:31:56,920 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 3: stunning that the Broncos sixty to one live on the

655
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 3: money line at one point. So yeah, the Eagles definitely

656
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:08,239
Speaker 3: have been lucky. Their schedules tough. It's they're gonna get

657
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 3: their medicine. I'm just not sure it's this week with

658
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 3: the Giants because I think I just think it's a

659
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 3: tough spot and the Eagles will be ready here and

660
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 3: I don't think it's a great matchup for the Giants

661
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 3: unless they jump ahead. But I'm not sure that they're

662
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 3: gonna be able to hear with their script after just

663
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 3: playing the Eagles a couple of weeks ago. So the

664
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 3: Jets would be the one of those two that I like.

665
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 1: And I believe we're going to talk about that within

666
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 1: our parlay discussion. Here's one last interesting one. Nick Giffan

667
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 1: also does work on luck totals. I full disclosure, I

668
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 1: do bet NBA and Major League Baseball totals quite frequently.

669
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 1: I could be the world's worst NFL totals better. I

670
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 1: just I just don't view the league that way.

671
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 2: I don't.

672
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: I don't have a lens for it. But Broncos Cowboys

673
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 1: under fifty and a half is that has to be

674
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 1: If we were ranking contrarian plays across the board this week,

675
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 1: that would be in the top three because those two

676
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 1: teams can score. So I'm and I'm thinking and betting

677
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: any any under where the Cowboys are involved. But that

678
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 1: is a luck under right there? Would you be willing

679
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 1: to place a bet on that stucky?

680
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 3: Maybe a fifty one or better? Which is a key

681
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 3: in the NFL? I mean, did the Broncos defense is

682
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 3: very good? The Cowboys offense isn't the same away from

683
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 3: home and bow Knicks is bon NICKX like that bo

684
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 3: Knicks will bonicks the offense into oblivion for like multiple quarters.

685
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 3: The had zero points against the Giants for three quarters

686
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 3: and then they had to go into comeback mode against

687
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 3: pre de defense with multiple second or injuries. So you

688
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 3: think that this but that this is a Broncos scene

689
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 3: that just scored thirteen points against the Jets. They scored

690
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 3: you know, they they were getting shut out against the

691
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 3: Eagles for three quarters. They were going to shut out

692
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 3: against the Giants for three quarters. So yeah, there's a

693
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 3: pat like to get over fifty one. You need, you

694
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 3: need a lot. You can't have a lot go wrong.

695
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 3: You need you can't be set on for field goals,

696
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 3: have red zone turnovers, and can tailspin a offense for

697
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 3: a couple of quarters. And to Broncos defense is very

698
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,240
Speaker 3: talented and so I can see the path at fifty

699
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 3: one or better, but obviously won't be enjoyable betting a

700
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 3: Cowboys under I can see it.

701
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: Four o'clock window, Cowboys under not things. It's time for

702
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: the reason you all came here today. Two Kings and

703
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,879
Speaker 1: a Queen Parlay. We took another team l last week,

704
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 1: but all we can do is get back on the horse.

705
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: Here are two Kings and a Queen parlay, presented by

706
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 1: draft Kings of the Crown is yours. We'll start with

707
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 1: the person who isn't here. Kendra has submitted her plays.

708
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:44,239
Speaker 1: I thought for sure we were gonna get some sort

709
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 1: of a anytime touchdown from a tight end. It is

710
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 1: tight ends Day on Sunday, by the way, the fourth Sunday.

711
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 3: Here, Scott Hansen say that fifty million times.

712
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 1: Is your buddy raybaon on any of the tight end

713
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 1: props this week for the cash The tight end stuff

714
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 1: went well, it went so wild last year. I was

715
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 1: talking with David Payton, our producer, before we popped on today.

716
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 1: It's bound to just tilt in the other direction because

717
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 1: people are gonna go wild on Sunday for these touchdown

718
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 1: tight end props.

719
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,399
Speaker 3: At least Kelsey's not playing on National tight Ends Stack

720
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 3: because that's when Scott Anson.

721
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 2: Really yeah right, Well, she doesn't have one of those Jets.

722
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 1: Giants are her too, so she is going East Rutherford

723
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 1: action here. Giants plus seven and a half against the Eagles,

724
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 1: Jets plus six and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals.

725
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 2: I was going to tee up the Jets.

726
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 1: Once I saw that on our little Google doc, I

727
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: decided to take it off so my voute would be

728
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:45,800
Speaker 1: on the Jets here. This Bengals team is not real

729
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 1: and if you look at every single direction of how

730
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 1: to bet a game in the NFL, it would point

731
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,879
Speaker 1: you in the way of the New York Jets. Aaron

732
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 1: Glenn hasn't committed to a quarterback yet. I think at

733
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,479
Speaker 1: this point we all hope it's to Rod Taylor. Under

734
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 1: Zach Taylor. The Bengals are two and six ATS when

735
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 1: playing at home off of a night game, two and

736
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 1: five ATS with extra time to prepare. In a non

737
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 1: borrow quarterbacked game, They're at home one in prime time

738
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 1: black all looks amazing.

739
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 2: I'm not buying any of it.

740
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 1: And the Jets, I mean you talk about do I

741
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 1: mean this team is overdue for a win, so perhaps

742
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 1: even a sprinkle on the money line. But I love

743
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 1: the Jets this week. That's my favorite bets, so that

744
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 1: would be my vote. I do like the Giants. I

745
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 1: just I'm afraid to buy high on the Aura, as

746
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 1: Kendro would put it, of Jackson Dart and Cam Skataboo.

747
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 1: It just feels like it almost feels like the they're like.

748
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 2: The cute new team. I just I'm not fully buying

749
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:44,359
Speaker 2: it yet.

750
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 1: The Eagles, as much as they are a slog to watch,

751
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,320
Speaker 1: it's still they're still a superpower in the NFL.

752
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 2: So that one I'm a little bit slower to get

753
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 2: to the window on. But I love the Jets.

754
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 3: No Giants. We're going with the Jets. Hopefully Garret Wilson

755
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:59,359
Speaker 3: maybe plays. I don't know there's a buye, but I mean,

756
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 3: do the Jets really care about it?

757
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 5: Buye?

758
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 3: I don't know. Sauce Corners in a covert protocol, but

759
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,760
Speaker 3: Michael Carter's back in the secondary. You got a couple

760
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 3: other guys and that's going to be one of the

761
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 3: big questions against their receivers. But this is a Jets team.

762
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 3: You mentioned, They've been extremely unlucky. I mean they have

763
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 3: covered a bunch of games, Like in this price range

764
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 3: they covered. They were like plus seven at Tampa and covered,

765
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 3: had a chance to win. They covered. They were this

766
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 3: around this price on a neutral against the Broncos a

767
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 3: couple of weeks back. So like now we're the Bengals

768
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 3: are laying six and a half because Joe Flacco had

769
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 3: his one explosion game. This is still one of the worst.

770
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 3: The Bengals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL,

771
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 3: one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. They

772
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 3: have been able to run the ball all year. The

773
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,359
Speaker 3: Jets defense is top seven in rush and pass success rate.

774
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 3: The Bengals are bottom five in both. Like, the Jets

775
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 3: should be able to run the ball year even with

776
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,800
Speaker 3: that is no Garret Wilson, I'm assuming it's tyrot or Trod,

777
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 3: my guy. I call him ty God. He's thirty four

778
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 3: to twenty one and four against the spread in his career.

779
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 2: Covers will call whatever he wants, just to call.

780
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:01,839
Speaker 3: Him sixty two sixty five percent against the spread. As

781
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:03,959
Speaker 3: a dog, he's nine three and one against his privan

782
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 3: catching six or more. The Jets of a minus nine

783
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 3: turnover differential. They forced one turnover all year. They're so

784
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:14,879
Speaker 3: overdue for turnovers. Flacco will give you the ball. So yeah,

785
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 3: and the Blengals don't blitz. They don't bring pressure if

786
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 3: that's really what's killed all the all the Jets quarterbacks.

787
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:23,800
Speaker 3: But I think actually Tad is better than than fields

788
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 3: right now. So there are some concerning injuries for the Jets.

789
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 3: The Bengals have some extra rest, but like, this team

790
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:29,879
Speaker 3: should not be laying six and a half here. So yeah,

791
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 3: we're going with the New York Football Jets.

792
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 2: What about you.

793
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 3: I'm gonna my two choices are the Ravens, but I

794
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 3: know you're not going to pick that, so we're gonna

795
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 3: and I don't blame you with the Lamar uncertainty, so

796
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 3: we're gonna go with the Commanders plus twelve and a half.

797
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 3: Like this is assuming, Like I don't think that the

798
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,839
Speaker 3: drop off between Daniels and Mariota is this big right now.

799
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 3: Like Daniels is not playing well this year, there's been

800
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 3: no chemistry with the offense. We've seen Mariota come in

801
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 3: and be very competent run this offense the Chiefs are

802
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 3: doing with offensive line injuries. It looks like McLaurin and

803
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 3: Deebo are going to be back. You should get a

804
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 3: focused effort here from the Commanders after they got blown

805
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 3: out against Dallas. Everyone is so high in the cheeks.

806
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 3: I get it. I love their offense too, but some

807
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 3: offensive line injuries you can run on them, which Washington

808
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 3: certainly can do. Mariota can run this off This is

809
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 3: a big number. This is a number that you get

810
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 3: against like a completely Yeah, they were just laying this

811
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 3: number to the Raiders without Bowers and without Colton Miller

812
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 3: and rate this completely broken Raiders team. Like this is

813
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 3: still a functional Washington offense that even if you're blowing

814
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 3: them out by like seventeen, you can still get in

815
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 3: the back door too many points. We're gonna go with

816
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 3: the Commanders Monday Night, catching twelve and a half, little

817
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 3: Bilos cell high spot there.

818
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 2: Very much self. I am game for that.

819
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 1: I like the Commanders play, don't love Mariota, but I'm

820
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,319
Speaker 1: willing to stomach that now, Evan, just for the sake

821
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:03,799
Speaker 1: of content. If you to break the tie between the

822
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:06,800
Speaker 1: Commanders of plus twelve and a half or the Ravens

823
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 1: at minus six and a half, where would you have

824
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:09,720
Speaker 1: placed your vote?

825
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 5: I want nothing to do with Chicago and Baltimore. I

826
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:15,439
Speaker 5: just way too many question marks for me. I think

827
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 5: Washington's the better play. I agree with Stuck. Jayden's fantastic.

828
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 5: We saw what he can do, but this year the

829
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 5: drop off hasn't been that drastic. And if you look

830
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 5: at it like this, which I know it's a little

831
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 5: bit of a different way of looking at it, but

832
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 5: the look ahead, like what we assumed Washington would be

833
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 5: is casey minus three and a half. That's just way

834
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 5: too drastic of a difference in that type of game,

835
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 5: and Kansas City's looked way too good that I would

836
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 5: be looking in the other direction. Like, do I expect

837
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 5: them to win? I do, but I think seven, eight, ten,

838
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 5: Like there's just eleven. There's a lot of different options

839
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 5: here for that number, and listen.

840
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 3: And the Chiefs just sit on it when they get

841
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 3: leads too.

842
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I think Washington's the right side.

843
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 1: Washington is going to have to score some points though.

844
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 1: The Chiefs offense is averaging thirty one and a half

845
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 1: points per game, four hundred and twelve yards of total

846
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 1: offense over their last four games, So the Commanders are

847
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 1: going to have to move the ball otherwise we're going

848
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 1: to be in trouble with that number. But it's still

849
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 1: a great buying opportunity for the Commanders.

850
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 3: Did it also worth bet you? I'll reiterate. Chiefs said three.

851
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 3: Josh Simmons is away from the team. They're left tackle.

852
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 3: I hope everything's okay with them. I didn't see an update.

853
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:30,400
Speaker 3: I hope it's nothing serious, but he's dealing with a

854
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 3: personal issue. Tray Smith and Jawan Taylor. Tray Smith's one

855
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 3: of your better off its linean and your right tackle

856
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 3: got hurt last week, So like that could throw a

857
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 3: little wrench into this. But Washington, especially with McLaurin and

858
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 3: Debo back, but they can run the ball, and the

859
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 3: Chiefs run defense has not been good. They lost another

860
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 3: defensive lineman last week. And who's now an I are

861
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 3: And so Washington, I think should be able to run it.

862
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 3: And what does that mean? Keep Mahomes on the sideline?

863
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 3: So I think they can put up their fair share

864
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 3: of points. I think they can get to seventeen to

865
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 3: twenty points in this and you know that I think

866
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:10,720
Speaker 3: the Chiefs probably get to like twenty eight to thirty one.

867
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think, But just numbers wise, this is

868
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 3: too much like this is Daniels has not been great

869
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 3: this year, and the timing of the receiver has been off.

870
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 3: It's just and we've seen Mariota run this offense confidently.

871
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 3: This is not like this is a bottom feeder line

872
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 3: like the Raiders is one of the worst teams gonna

873
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 3: felt the moment without their best players. And this is

874
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 3: what the number was last week. Too much inflation. So yeah,

875
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 3: we're rolling with and Avid real quick. Who would you

876
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 3: went with Giants or Jets as the New York guy.

877
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:39,280
Speaker 4: I probably wouldn't go with the Giants.

878
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,359
Speaker 5: I just think that a game is the extra yeah,

879
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 5: and you it's the ultimate you got to see it

880
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:46,879
Speaker 5: to prove it type of game. Like every single week,

881
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 5: the Giants look better than we think they are, and

882
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 5: it just yeah, on paper, the Eagles obviously look better,

883
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 5: but when you get on the field, there's just something

884
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 5: a little different.

885
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 3: I don't know, they fade and then they miraculously find

886
00:42:59,360 --> 00:42:59,919
Speaker 3: ways to cover.

887
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 1: Sure, yeah, they are definitely I love fading the Eagles,

888
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 1: and I don't know if I've lost as much as

889
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 1: Stucky on that endeavor. But betting of the Broncos the

890
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 1: week that they were able to come back against Philly,

891
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 1: that was one of my better wins on the year.

892
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 1: But betting the Giants is just simply more fun than

893
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 1: betting the Jets. But we're not in this for fun.

894
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 1: We're in this for wins.

895
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 3: You might not say that when Deontay Banks as the player.

896
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 3: I don't even know who they're going to start at

897
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 3: the DeVos out But anyway, all right, what are your

898
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 3: two that you're going with?

899
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:29,839
Speaker 1: By the way, public flogging on Monday night, sixty six

900
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 1: percent of the bets right now on the Kansas City Chiefs.

901
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 1: No surprise there as part of the reason why we

902
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 1: like the Commanders. Saints plus four against the Tampa Bay Bucks,

903
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 1: Texans minus one against the San Francisco forty nine Ers.

904
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:43,800
Speaker 2: I'll go into cell.

905
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,800
Speaker 1: Mode for these and then I'll let you pick between

906
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 1: the two. The injuries are catching up to Tampa short

907
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 1: week now they go on the road in division. Baker

908
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 1: has struggled in these spots four and five in those

909
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,919
Speaker 1: positions at ATS. As a favorite against the NFC South,

910
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:03,080
Speaker 1: I eliminate everything involved with Cleveland when I do anything

911
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 1: Baker related stat wise, So thank you for putting that

912
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:06,320
Speaker 1: in the primer.

913
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 2: Evan, this is a luck ranking game.

914
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:11,399
Speaker 1: On top of it, Rattler through three picks last week,

915
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 1: he hadn't thrown an interception since Week three. If he

916
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 1: can just play it safe, simple style of quarterback play,

917
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 1: I think they can move on Tampa. Chris Alave has

918
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:23,240
Speaker 1: been playing some really good football. I can't quit the Saints.

919
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,480
Speaker 1: I've bet this team a lot this year two and

920
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 1: five ATS, so it doesn't exactly paid off, but I'm

921
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,720
Speaker 1: gonna go back to the well here and fade the Bucks.

922
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 1: As far as the other play, everything points to Houston here.

923
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:39,879
Speaker 1: San Francisco's a cell high, Houston's a by low. They

924
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 1: are a disgusting football team. One offensive touchdown last week

925
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:47,760
Speaker 1: in primetime. They have been awful in these primetime games.

926
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 1: Just think back to that game against the Tampa Bay Bucks.

927
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 1: The sharp side was the Texans, just like it was

928
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 1: against the Seahawks.

929
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 2: They have not been coming through.

930
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 1: But when you look at what the P rating is

931
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 1: going to tell you is that the Texans should be favored.

932
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 2: I think most people that look at this game are

933
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 2: going to.

934
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 1: Say, well, how in the world are the San Francisco

935
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:09,320
Speaker 1: forty nine ers not favored?

936
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 2: They're the better team.

937
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:14,319
Speaker 1: Houston's defense is allowing fourteen point seven points per game.

938
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 1: Shanahan's teams the last nine times they've faced the defense

939
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 1: allowing seventeen points per game or less one to eight

940
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 1: against the spread. I mean, the Texans might be bad,

941
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 1: but all signs point to them in this particular game.

942
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like both. I like both of these. Good

943
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 3: job by Kendra. You and maybe I'm rubbing off on

944
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 3: you guys because I used to not like all your

945
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 3: plays in the beginning of the year. Now this week

946
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,040
Speaker 3: I like all of your plays. So good work. Here,

947
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:42,360
Speaker 3: I'm going to beat bet both of these. I like

948
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 3: the Texans. I mean, look the forty nine ers, they

949
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 3: had an all out effort against Atlanta. But I mean

950
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 3: Penix is just off. That defense is really bad. It's

951
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 3: a bottom five defense on paper right now because they

952
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 3: don't have Warner and they don't have both. They just

953
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 3: lost off, they have other injuries, Green, their corner got hurt,

954
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 3: and they don't get pressure. They're dead last and pressure

955
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 3: rate by a wide margin out boss on the field.

956
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 3: What does that mean? That means like Stroud's actually gonna

957
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 3: have time to operate and even if Nico Collins doesn't play,

958
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:10,439
Speaker 3: they're going to be able to throw the ball. He's

959
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 3: look at the Ravens games. Stroud looked great. The Titans

960
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 3: game teams that weren't able to get pressure when he

961
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:18,840
Speaker 3: was playing, like the Rams, the Seahawks, He's elite defensive linset.

962
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 3: They will just they just crumble the awful the Houston

963
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:25,960
Speaker 3: offensive line and they can't do anything. So this is

964
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 3: a game where indoors against a bad defense, even if

965
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:32,439
Speaker 3: Nico Collins doesn't play, even if Christian Kirk doesn't play.

966
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 3: I think with the Iowa State receiving core that he

967
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 3: might have. They're gonna be able to move the ball.

968
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:38,400
Speaker 3: And then you have the best unit on the field

969
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 3: in the Houston defense, still one of the best defenses

970
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:45,400
Speaker 3: in the NFL. And look, Matt Jones has been great

971
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 3: as a backup, but I mean look that, but he's

972
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 3: had one touchdown, four interceptions in his last three or

973
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:53,960
Speaker 3: four games. And who is he played. I mean he's

974
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 3: played the Falcons defense, the Bucks defense with all their injuries,

975
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 3: you know, the Jags, the Rams, the Saints, like this

976
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 3: is a big step up in class for mac Jones

977
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 3: and this defense at home desperation spot, they're gonna be ready.

978
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:12,879
Speaker 3: And look the forty nine ers Yester five and two.

979
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:15,920
Speaker 3: They should have lost to the Cardinals. Cardinals have a

980
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:18,399
Speaker 3: wide open they drop it literally wide open and drop.

981
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 3: They win that game. They won by one. The Saints

982
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 3: had the ball with a chance to win. They win

983
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:24,320
Speaker 3: by five. The Seahawks had a chance to win, it

984
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:26,759
Speaker 3: was a fumble late. They won by four. They beat

985
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 3: the Rams in overtime. They then they you know, they

986
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 3: beat the Falcons last week by ten. That's that they

987
00:47:33,080 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 3: have four. There are four wins by one possession. They

988
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 3: could have all went the other way. This team usually

989
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:39,360
Speaker 3: could have two or three wins. Credit the Channa for

990
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:41,359
Speaker 3: when he's done with all the injuries, but I think

991
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:45,880
Speaker 3: Houston gets it done. I also like your other pick, which.

992
00:47:45,680 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 2: Was who it was the Saints four The Saints.

993
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with everything he said. The Bucks injuries

994
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:52,840
Speaker 3: before the bye week, they're going to be more cautious

995
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 3: with who they hold out. Baker kind of came back

996
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:58,760
Speaker 3: down to earth last week. Maybe some of the injuries

997
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:00,719
Speaker 3: on the offensive line widerc I mean, he was a

998
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:02,839
Speaker 3: Bucks team that was Baker was playing at a god

999
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 3: level and they were barely winning games, like last minute

1000
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:08,760
Speaker 3: drives every week. Last week against a bunch of backups,

1001
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:10,960
Speaker 3: he wasn't playing at God level and they get blown out.

1002
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 3: So yeah, he might be coming back down to earth

1003
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 3: a bit. And the injuries around him aren't helping. Bucky

1004
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:18,920
Speaker 3: Irving not being in it doesn't help, and this Bucks

1005
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 3: defense is still gettable. Worry about the center injury against

1006
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 3: Videvea for the Saints. I'll see how they mix it up.

1007
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 3: But I like both of these. My vote would be

1008
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 3: We're gonna go with the Texans. That's what I have

1009
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 3: the most conviction on, but I'm okay going with either. Ivan,

1010
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:33,240
Speaker 3: do you have a preference?

1011
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:35,279
Speaker 5: I love both of these sides. I've been sitting here

1012
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 5: trying to figure it out. I think New Orleans is

1013
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 5: the right side based off a number of factors. Something

1014
00:48:39,200 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 5: looked wrong with Baker overall in that game, Like I

1015
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 5: don't even necessarily know if it was the injuries or anything.

1016
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 5: He just looked off the entire.

1017
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:48,960
Speaker 3: Night in mis step, wide open touchdown.

1018
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,360
Speaker 1: He's not comfortable with his receivers. So who are we

1019
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 1: going with here? Texans or Saints?

1020
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 5: I Mean, my only question was going to be this

1021
00:48:57,280 --> 00:49:00,160
Speaker 5: when Nico Collins gets officially announced out, which we soon.

1022
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 3: That's what I'm trying to figure out.

1023
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,319
Speaker 5: You think it'll come down a little bit because I'm

1024
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,440
Speaker 5: just I'm a little worried going against San Francisco with

1025
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,560
Speaker 5: all that they do, and I keep doing that every

1026
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 5: week and I keep losing.

1027
00:49:10,840 --> 00:49:12,800
Speaker 4: But I think the Texans are the right side here.

1028
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:12,880
Speaker 2: All right.

1029
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,719
Speaker 3: But because of that and at DraftKings right now, the

1030
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 3: Saints are the best price of market. So let's go

1031
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:19,959
Speaker 3: up the Saints plus four and a half.

1032
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 1: All right, deal, Saints plus four and a half is

1033
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:25,800
Speaker 1: my play. In the Two Kings and a Queen parlay

1034
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings, Kendra has the Jets plus six and

1035
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 1: a half against the Bengals and stuck. You'll have to

1036
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:35,879
Speaker 1: wait till Monday night for that one. Commanders plus twelve

1037
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:38,239
Speaker 1: and a half against the Chiefs. That will do it

1038
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 1: for today's episode special thanks to our producers Gifford Gold

1039
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 1: and David Paine. The Favorites will return on Sunday night.

1040
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:47,919
Speaker 1: All the week eight recap for you. Catch it right

1041
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:50,399
Speaker 1: here on the Action Network YouTube page. Thanks so much

1042
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:52,360
Speaker 1: for tuning in. We'll see you next time here on

1043
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 1: the Favorites presented by DraftKings.

1044
00:49:54,400 --> 00:50:07,840
Speaker 2: Let's cash these tickets I go. Action Network reminds you

1045
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:11,920
Speaker 2: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about

1046
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:14,920
Speaker 2: has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to

1047
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:16,840
Speaker 2: seven at one eight hundred Gambler