1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg What 5 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: a week Ahead, then a Federal reserved decision and the 6 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: payrolls report they will come to you Wednesday Friday, respectively. 7 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 1: And Secretary Minution heading to China with a big delegation 8 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: to talk trade at a time when the Commist Department 9 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 1: is wrestling with request with allies for tariff exemptions and 10 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: really pleased to say that this morning, this Monday, We're 11 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: joined by Peter Henry is ny U Stern School of 12 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 1: Business Dean emeritus and economists as well. Peter, fantastic to 13 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: have you with us on the program kickoff things this week. 14 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: Good morning, good morning, delight to be with you. Let's 15 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: begin with a Secretary Monution going to China show. We're 16 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: heading to Beijing with a big trade delegation, Allies trying 17 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 1: to work out whether the tariffs on aluminium still applied 18 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 1: to them and whether they'll get tariff exemptions. Extended. Do 19 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:16,759 Speaker 1: you have any clarity on on the direction to travel 20 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: of this specific issue, Pisa, Well, I'm not being on 21 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:22,680 Speaker 1: the forecast how this how this negotiation is going to 22 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 1: turn out. I think that's probably a fool's errand but 23 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 1: I think the big picture to remember here is that 24 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: the global economy is deeply depending on the United States 25 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: and China having good relations, and that's got to be 26 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: the center sort of negotiating stance of both both parties, because, 27 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 1: you know, forgetting that, we lose sight of the fact 28 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 1: that the United States has been benefiting enormously from lower 29 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: consumer goods prices from from trade with China for years, 30 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: and so trying to get a better deal in some 31 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 1: sense for US corporations, it's imperative to remember that the 32 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: US economy, the world economy is a lot better off 33 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: as a result of having more not less trade. We're 34 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: sort of low and side of the fact as well, 35 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: that much of what is on the table is just 36 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 1: a proposal on the table and not a real change 37 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 1: in policy. Um, are you surprised that we're a year 38 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: and change into this administration and actually haven't seen a 39 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 1: substantial change in policy. Had a lot of proposals, a 40 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: lot of retrick, but no real change in policy as 41 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: far as I could see. Yeah, I think you know, 42 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 1: you've seen a lot of volatility in terms of what 43 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:24,799 Speaker 1: sort of come out of in terms of proposals from 44 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 1: this administration. I mean, you saw it about a week 45 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 1: ago now when President Trump uh indicated he wanted to 46 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: be back in as part of tp TPP and then 47 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: not part of TPP. I mean, I think that's the 48 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 1: sort of thing you're alluding to. A bigger vision around trade, 49 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: which says, look, the United States is only five percent 50 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: of the world's population, but we're twenty percent of global GDP, 51 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 1: and that would never happen without a world of free trade, 52 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 1: and in fact, we should be pushing for more of 53 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,799 Speaker 1: that and creating more of a positive some outcome which 54 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: will be good not only for the United States, but 55 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 1: be good for the world, but in particularly would be 56 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 1: good for the U. S consumers and the US workers. 57 00:02:57,800 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: And now we haven't seen that. We had a day 58 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: of hope on Friday between North and South Korea and 59 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: the President actually congratulating President She some warm words for 60 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: President She for the amount of pressure that he's put 61 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:10,359 Speaker 1: on North Korea and I guess the big question mark 62 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 1: at this point is whether we can blend continue to 63 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: blend the foreign policy effort of this administration with the 64 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 1: international trade story as well, because the President himself has 65 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: done that, and you just wonder whether there's an open 66 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 1: door to walk back some of this retric on trade 67 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,239 Speaker 1: now that some improvement has been made on the North 68 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: Korea side of things. I think it's an important point. 69 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: I think that anything which, if you will, sort of 70 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: de escalates the rhetoric around trade wars or retaliation and 71 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: recognizes the positive some nature of global trade, I think 72 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: would be would be useful, would be useful from the 73 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 1: from the point of view of not um not backing 74 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 1: people into corners. But also I think I think markets 75 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: would welcome that as well, and I think that would 76 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 1: reduce some of the volatively we've seen it recently. Just 77 00:03:57,440 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: in terms of what Marcus are looking at this morning, 78 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: deal flow really picking up another one crossing the Bloomberg 79 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 1: Married vacations to acquire I l G in a cash 80 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: and stock deal, and Tom King you add that on 81 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: to Sprint t Mobile this morning, a deal with Marathon 82 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: in the in the oil space, the energy space, and 83 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 1: over in the UK. Of course, Walmart is selling that 84 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 1: steak in in Asta to Saintsbury's two. So a lot 85 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 1: of deal flow this Monday morning. I wonder higher rates, 86 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: like money was cheap, let's get it done now, maybe 87 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: I really wonder about that. A lot of stock deal 88 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:28,120 Speaker 1: in this, and you just look at the equity as 89 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: a currency, and I think some companies are trying to 90 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: spend it while they can. Yeah, well let's go, let's go. 91 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 1: We got Dean Henry with us, which is a good 92 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 1: reason too. I should excuse me, John Dean Emeritus Henry 93 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 1: with us as well. I just called him Peter long before, 94 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,839 Speaker 1: long before you darken the door, n y you. It 95 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,719 Speaker 1: was one of my original sponsors, and we always thanks 96 00:04:56,760 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 1: during School of Business for their support of bloombergun the economy, 97 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:02,720 Speaker 1: in Bloomberg Surveillance. Thank you. We've had a lot of 98 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,039 Speaker 1: your students over the years. They've done very well. Really, 99 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 1: yes they have. Yeah, I mean Tanya I think pulled 100 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 1: a quality c you know, can we can we just 101 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: can we just think of Tanya for a little while 102 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 1: that she's been called it was a miracle she got 103 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 1: through Stern students to listen to this. They do it's 104 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:42,840 Speaker 1: a forced podcast for the first time. I will have 105 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:45,479 Speaker 1: two books of the summer. That's how good the book 106 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: flow is. Ben Garrett Grafts The Threat Matrix is on 107 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: the Federal Bureau of Investigation and on the Robert Mueller 108 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: that we Don't Know And the other book took at 109 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,840 Speaker 1: least three seconds to decide to feature is a book 110 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: of the summer. Robert call Plan Agree or Disagree has 111 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 1: driven the debate on realist foreign policy in America for decades. 112 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: His new book, The Return of Marco Polo's World, is 113 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 1: a set of articles and new observations which is definitive. 114 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: Robert Kaplan joins us in Washington in FM Studios. He 115 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,919 Speaker 1: is with your Asia group, Ian Bremer Shop, among other abilities. 116 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 1: What's your number one message to Mr Manutian going to China, 117 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:31,279 Speaker 1: Robert Kaplan. I think the number one message Tom is 118 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 1: to preserve the relationship that um you know, that trade 119 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,919 Speaker 1: has the ability if you have a really you know, 120 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 1: tumultuous trading relationship that's not well defined, that's not on board. 121 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: This affects the military situation in the South and East 122 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: China Sea. It affects politics throughout the Indo Pacific in 123 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: Central Asia. In other words, trade is not isolated. It's 124 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 1: all part of a geopol clitical mix within the synthesis. 125 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: And this is the heart of your book as the 126 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:08,040 Speaker 1: complexities that need to be thought through the reality as 127 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 1: we have a president who is bilateral, he says, and 128 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: many would say, my deal or the highway is the theory. 129 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: How do you drag this president into a more complex discussion? Um? 130 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 1: I think what you do is um. You well, first 131 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 1: of all, you have advisors, and the advisors, as extreme 132 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 1: as some of them may be, maybe are still far 133 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 1: more nuanced than the president is. And you, you know, 134 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 1: you just tell him that, you know, if you do this, 135 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 1: here are all the consequences. Here are all the second 136 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: and third and fourth order effects. And China is developing 137 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: a society and a system that is going to be 138 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: uh you know, that is going to be not only 139 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 1: a great competitor of the United States it already is, 140 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 1: but is on track to overtake the United States in 141 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: the decades to come unless we're very careful and can 142 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: compete with them throughout Eurasia and the rest of the 143 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: world in a very sly fashion. So Robert at the 144 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: moment and Jonathan by the way, speaking, and great to 145 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 1: have you with us on the program. Thank you for 146 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 1: joining us. Robert Um the guest. The question for me 147 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: is China sort of establishes the Silk Road strategy for 148 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: the whole region. What is the geo strategic sort of 149 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 1: aim of the United States and this administration for Asia 150 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: right now? Well, I think, Um, we've had seventy five 151 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: years of new of liberal world order building, and the 152 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: mistake that many of us have made is to think 153 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 1: that that's normal. But in the long span of history, 154 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: the period between nineteen and the coming to power of 155 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 1: Donald Trump has been an historical aberration. Most of history 156 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 1: is geopolitical jockeying, positioning, wars, competition, rivalry, and trade can 157 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: be just an adjunct to geopolitical rivalry, whereas free trade 158 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: is an adjunct to liberal world order building. So what 159 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: Trump really signifies is a return in you know, is 160 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 1: you know is counterintuitive? Is this sounds Trump actually signifies 161 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: a return to a more traditional form of world history. 162 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: Expand on that a little bit, what were the the 163 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 1: implications the consequence of that approach being? Robert, Well, the 164 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 1: consequences of this The twentieth century was about ideological warfare, 165 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: and that led to the deaths of tens of million, 166 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 1: a hundred and fifty million people in two world wars, etcetera. 167 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: Geopolitical conflict is less bloody, um but it but, but 168 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 1: it's equally tumultuous. If you look at the eighteenth century, 169 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 1: the nineteenth century, the problems you know, you know, British 170 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: Foreign Minister Castle Reay during the Napoleonic Wars. This is 171 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: the period we're back to um where you have the 172 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: United States, China, and Russia UH competing with each other 173 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: with lesser powers like Iran, India, et cetera. Where where 174 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:15,320 Speaker 1: where a bipolar world during the Cold War was very stable. Um, 175 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: but we're entering a world where it's not even multipolarity. 176 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: It's more fractured than that. Robert kapp in one final question, 177 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: and these are people that have actually read your books, 178 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: and no doubt we'll give a serious skim and full 179 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: read of the return of Marco Polo's World. How should 180 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: Republican state department types respond to this president? Many are 181 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 1: saying they won't serve this president. I think of Nick 182 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 1: Burns with his public service, Richard hass with his public service, 183 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: and others should they stay away from this president or 184 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 1: with a new secretary of State, should they choose to 185 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 1: serve as a public duty? Uh? Tom. The way it 186 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 1: works in Washington is we have of such a vast 187 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:07,599 Speaker 1: imperial system of under secretaries, assistant secretaries, deputy under secretaries, 188 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: and on and on that you decide to serve based 189 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: on whether you trust the person who's hired you. So 190 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: if they trust Mike Pompeo as State, they should go 191 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 1: to work for him. If they trust Jim Maddis at 192 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 1: the Defense Department, they should go to work for him. 193 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:29,359 Speaker 1: If they do not trust John Bolton at National Security, 194 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 1: they should not go to work for him. It's a 195 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 1: very diversified system so that it you know, of course 196 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: it matters who's the president, but what matters particularly is 197 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 1: who their boss is and if they can trust their 198 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 1: boss both morally and philosophically. Robert Capa, thank you so 199 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: much for visiting us today. His book my book of 200 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: the summer, The Return of Marco Polis World. I'll feature 201 00:11:53,400 --> 00:12:09,680 Speaker 1: that out on social We like to do interviews after 202 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 1: interview where there's a theme and there is a good conversation. 203 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,719 Speaker 1: We did that with Ian Bremer Thursday, Friday last week, 204 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: Robert Kaplan joining us with this wonderful the Return of 205 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 1: Marco Polos World, one of my books of the summer, 206 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 1: and now joining us James Travitz, who had my book 207 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: of the Summer a year or two ago, is leaders bookshelf, 208 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 1: just absolutely superb. He is, of course at Fletcher School. 209 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: Admirals Tavidez, good morning. In Robert Kaplan's book, chapter after 210 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 1: chapter he circles back to where he was with the 211 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: Asia Cauldron and five years ago, which is a South 212 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: China sea and submarines. Does your US Navy need a 213 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: new Himan rick Over to drive forward submarine development. We've 214 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: actually got a terrific Chief of Naval Operations who is 215 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: a submariner, Tom Admiral John Richardson, and he's just superb. 216 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: He focuses on the connections between our submarine force, cyber technology, 217 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 1: unmanned vehicles, and our ability to use our strategic deterrence 218 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 1: at sea, so that that Rickover is walking the streets 219 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: today and we're lucky to have them. Do we need 220 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: a larger navy? Robert Keppelan says no, we need a 221 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: more intelligently deployed navy. But if we're gonna have a 222 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: return of Marco Polo. The span from at least the 223 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: Persian Gulf across the Indian Ocean, through the Straits of 224 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 1: Malacca up through South China Sea up to Korea. With 225 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 1: all the news last week that screams to be navy, Navy, Navy, 226 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 1: it does indeed. And my latest book tom is Seapower, 227 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,800 Speaker 1: The History and Geopolitics of the World's Ocean, and it 228 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 1: talks about this. What we are recognized is that Marco 229 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 1: Polo went from east to west. What's happening now from 230 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 1: west to east one belt, one road. China is reversing 231 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 1: the voyages of Marco Polo and moving across that area. 232 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: And so we need a bigger navy. I don't think 233 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: it has to be thousands of ships, but we're only 234 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 1: at about two hundred and seventy. We need to be 235 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: up around three twenty three d and thirty ships will 236 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: get there, but we also need to deploy it more 237 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: intelligently and focus. As you said, and as Robert Captain 238 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 1: would agree, on the South China see Admirals Travitas. Has 239 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 1: China ever initiated a conflict with a Western power? No, 240 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: they have never done so, and they have always held 241 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 1: themselves and here's really the point, held themselves above the 242 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 1: rest of the world. They think of themselves as that 243 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: middle kingdom between heaven and Earth, and they've always felt 244 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: we don't need to do that. That resulted a course 245 00:14:56,160 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 1: in invasions of China from Western powers. Now, what we 246 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 1: should remember is that China has attacked other Asian nations 247 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 1: in the past and will continue to do that as 248 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: they consolidate power in the region. And if we don't 249 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 1: want the South China Sea in the Western Pacific to 250 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: turn into a Chinese lake, we're going to have to 251 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: remain engaged. Having said that, would we want the Gulf 252 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: of Mexico to turn into a non US lake? You know, 253 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: in the nineteenth century, of course, we had the Monroe Doctrine, 254 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: which was designed for that not to happen. But I 255 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 1: think we've matured in our geopolitics, and the idea that 256 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 1: the United States has a desire or a need to 257 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: simply declare the Gulf of Mexico territorial sea and build 258 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 1: a nine dash line around it is preposterous, and I 259 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: don't think that we should allow China to do the 260 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: equivalent around the South China Sea. Having said that, are 261 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 1: we misinformed in terms of what we believe to be 262 00:15:55,960 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 1: the threat from China. I think that there is a 263 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: little bit of China hysteria out there to the degree 264 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: that we believe China wants to dominate the world. I 265 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: don't think they do. But here's what they want. They 266 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 1: want control of the South China see because it represents hydrocarbons, 267 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 1: which is the missing card in their strategic suite. They 268 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 1: want the ability to dominate East Asia and move their 269 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 1: goods in the way they want to. And they want 270 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 1: to get into the Indian Ocean. So they're not reaching 271 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: for global hegemony, but really regional control. It would not 272 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: be a good thing for the United States to see 273 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 1: that to China at this point. Does the President understand 274 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 1: that dialogue? I haven't seen, and I'm talking more from 275 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 1: a military standpoint. ADDM mean, we've got the trade discussion 276 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: in a bilateral slash my way or the highway dialogue. 277 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 1: But does the President understand astra Vita's kaplan world. I 278 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 1: don't think he does, And of course he famously is 279 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 1: not a great reader of books. But a lot of 280 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,919 Speaker 1: your listeners are Tom and on this one, I'd recommend 281 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 1: Graham Allison. He's a brilliant his new his new book, 282 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 1: Destined for War China in the US and the Century. 283 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: And as you know, Tom, there's no question mark at 284 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 1: the end of that title. So Graham takes a pretty 285 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 1: aggressive view towards China. I think if you read that book, 286 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 1: you get a pretty good understanding. Perhaps someone should summarize 287 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 1: it for the president. Do you believe that there will 288 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 1: be a war between the United States and China? I 289 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: do not. I believe over the long term, throughout the century, 290 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,920 Speaker 1: our interests converge more than they diverge. But if we 291 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 1: are foolish about it and are either too aggressive that 292 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 1: would lead to war, or if we're too passive that 293 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: would lead to war. We have to kind of dial 294 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 1: this one in. I'm gonna put out on Twitter, folks, 295 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. We'll see at first see Power, James Travids. 296 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:00,919 Speaker 1: It is just read it for the first time. The 297 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 1: admiral went to see you don't have to read it 298 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: for anything else. He's like in the smallest boat in 299 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: the Davy. He's got his float, he's on his arms. 300 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: He's like eighteen or nineteen years old and he's going 301 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: out of San Diego Harbor, and you know it's just 302 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 1: that alone is worth reading. Right now, Sarah Sanator joins 303 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 1: us with Bernstein, and we love having her on to 304 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 1: talk about I guess our national diet and our national 305 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 1: food and Sarah, I want to ask a basic McDonald's 306 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,679 Speaker 1: one oh one question, which is a butch cassidy. Who 307 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 1: are these guys? And I do that Looking at the 308 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: two thousand seventeen annual report quote, we have committed to 309 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,160 Speaker 1: getting more of our restaurants in the hands of our 310 00:18:54,280 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 1: franchise ease and developmental licensee strategic partners. There's enough ease 311 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: in there for me to know that's a bunch of 312 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: hot air. What does mc Who is McDonald's. Do they 313 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: really own the restaurants that we're eating out of. I 314 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 1: don't know if I would characterize that is hot air 315 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,959 Speaker 1: because they answer your question, Um, McDonald's is a brand owner. 316 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 1: So their job, frankly is to do things that for 317 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 1: the brand. So think about marketing and menu innovation and 318 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:33,239 Speaker 1: essentially how they want their global footprint to look, and 319 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 1: then they leave it in the hands of their partners, 320 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 1: the franchise ease, the licensese to execute against that plan. So, yes, 321 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,639 Speaker 1: there are a lot of ease in there, but I 322 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:47,000 Speaker 1: don't think that that diminishes the fact that the strategy 323 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,159 Speaker 1: is working for them. The strategy has been brilliant with 324 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 1: lower revenue growth. Explain how you go from twenty seven 325 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 1: billion of revenue down to two ish billion and that's 326 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,679 Speaker 1: a good thing. What does it mean that they're five 327 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 1: billion short on revenue from where they were a couple 328 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 1: of years ago. Yeah, in this case, one of the 329 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,680 Speaker 1: rare cases, we're shrinking the top line is a good 330 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,959 Speaker 1: thing because it reflects the fact that instead of running restaurants, 331 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:18,200 Speaker 1: they're just collecting the royalty from them. So right, so 332 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,880 Speaker 1: instead of reporting acent of sales for a restaurant, they're 333 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:25,959 Speaker 1: only reporting called fifteen percent of sales. But those are 334 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 1: very high margin. They basically have minimal costs associated with them, 335 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 1: just the cost of owning the real estate as McDonald's 336 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: tends to do um and not much else. Beautifully explained, 337 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: they take cents or so down to eb Yeah. Well, Sarah, 338 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 1: I want to go through the menu. I want you 339 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 1: to go through the menu if you can, because many 340 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 1: people may not be familiar with things like turtle drinks 341 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 1: or even being able to use your mobile app to 342 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 1: pay for things at McDonald's. Go through the menu, force 343 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 1: tell us what's working for them, and don't leave out 344 00:20:55,760 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: the garlic. I'll try not to. I think the working 345 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 1: for them is but we think of as the bar 346 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 1: bill strategy, which is on the one end you have 347 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 1: you know, more premium products. Last year there was a 348 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 1: real focus on these signature crafted hamburgers, which had three 349 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,680 Speaker 1: different builds that you could choose from, and you could 350 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: choose either uh hamburger or a chicken sandwich, and you 351 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: could choose different kinds of buns. So it's sort of 352 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 1: what I would call mask customization. And they were frankly 353 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 1: very well received because they're pretty delicious. So you had, 354 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 1: you know, things like a Pico de Gaio which also 355 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 1: had guercomole which tasted like real guacamole um, and other builds, 356 00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 1: the two other builds, both of which had bacon, because 357 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 1: because everything tastes better with bacon. So on the one 358 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:45,679 Speaker 1: end you had that the premium, and then on the 359 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 1: other end you had them really emphasizing being competitive in value, 360 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 1: as cvster Brick would say, so um not necessarily being 361 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 1: the lowest price point and every item at every time, 362 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,080 Speaker 1: but having an offering like the Mick Pick two for 363 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,119 Speaker 1: two or the dollar soda two dollar coffee that was 364 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:07,520 Speaker 1: very compelling UM to two restaurant goers. And we're seeing 365 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 1: that again this year with them one to three dollar 366 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 1: value menu on the on the low end, but then 367 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 1: also this fresh beef quarter pounder, which again UM is 368 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:19,879 Speaker 1: now available in New York area and it's it's a 369 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: very good sandwich. So McDonald's is really trying to stay 370 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 1: true to this UM for honestly being a progressive burger 371 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,639 Speaker 1: company UM, such that they have good food that tastes 372 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 1: good as well sourced, but also a value price point 373 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,919 Speaker 1: that can appeal broadly. Sarah, How are they able to 374 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:41,000 Speaker 1: do this so quickly? You know, I think, UM. You know, 375 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 1: what we saw with the leadership turnover in was was 376 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: really a cultural shift and that was very much the focus, 377 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 1: which is, you know, be fast, be nimble, fail fast, 378 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 1: as they say, UM, but make sure that that if 379 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,359 Speaker 1: there's a demand for a product in the market, that 380 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,439 Speaker 1: McDonald is going to meet it. So you know, All 381 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 1: day Breakfast is a good example of this. You know, 382 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 1: that's probably the most requested and new item or menu edition, 383 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: probably since they added breakfast in the seventies. And yet 384 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 1: for a very long time the system was hesitant because 385 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 1: the operational challenges. And I think you know, the focus 386 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 1: this time with this management team is to make sure 387 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,520 Speaker 1: that things like operational challenges didn't stand in the way. 388 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,200 Speaker 1: Same with fresh beef quarter pounders. It's a good sandwich. 389 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: They know it tested well, people liked it, and they 390 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 1: were going to figure out a way to bring it 391 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 1: to market. All right. For Tom that doesn't necessarily get 392 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: the mic cafe that has been so popular. He can 393 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 1: now get it into mic Cafe in a bottle. Tell 394 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,640 Speaker 1: us about those kinds of ventures, because it's not only 395 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 1: Mick Cafe in a bottle. There's Mick Cafe bags, cake cups, 396 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 1: and canisters. That's right. I mean, this is still a 397 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 1: very very small piece of their business. You know, it's 398 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 1: it's and it's always it's always going to be hard 399 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 1: to to move the needle um. You know, in the US, 400 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 1: when you have fourteen thousand restaurants doing you know, two 401 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,159 Speaker 1: and a half million dollars UH per box, you know 402 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 1: any anything, you know, thirty five billion dollar system, it's 403 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,639 Speaker 1: very hard for anyone product, and yeah, but it's going 404 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 1: to allow me to segue into Starbucks. So that's why 405 00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 1: I did it. We're talking about it, okay, So then 406 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,639 Speaker 1: there's value to you. I think there's value there too 407 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 1: to McDonald's. Mean, look, it's a testament to the fact 408 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 1: that the brand is strong enough to be sold outside 409 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:24,359 Speaker 1: of the McDonald's restaurants, whether ever, will be hugely meaningful. 410 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 1: Probably not, but you know, but people like the costs. 411 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: So tell Tom about Starbucks and what their challenges are, 412 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,880 Speaker 1: you know, I think, look, Starbucks is a very good 413 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 1: global brand. Um. You know, our view is that increasingly 414 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 1: it may just be more mature than uh than it's 415 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 1: you know, the company is willing to acknowledge or let up. Um. 416 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,400 Speaker 1: You know, there's there's long been that joke about Starbucks 417 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:53,119 Speaker 1: and every corner um, and and that is increasingly I 418 00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,479 Speaker 1: think part of the issue for them, there's just you know, growth, 419 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 1: there's only so much, so many units you can add 420 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 1: before they are to impact the existing business. Sir. Before 421 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 1: I let you go Chipotle seven hundred down to three, 422 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 1: I guess with an enthusiastic bounce, where are you on 423 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 1: CMG right now? I mean, I like this stock. I 424 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,920 Speaker 1: have to say, uh, you know, it's been been sort 425 00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 1: of a long suffering bowl. We saw all these opportunities 426 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,640 Speaker 1: for the business, and the last management team just wasn't 427 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 1: executing against them. And I think the reason you've seen 428 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,680 Speaker 1: this big move is because the opportunities are very much 429 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,600 Speaker 1: there in terms of driving top line through basic things 430 00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 1: like marketing, you know, more effective advertising, some digital issues 431 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 1: and also a lot of costs. And we finally have 432 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,159 Speaker 1: a CEO and now a Chief Marketing Officer UM and 433 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,920 Speaker 1: chief restaurant officer, and I t that are that are 434 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,160 Speaker 1: there and capable of executing. What can they learn from 435 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:54,200 Speaker 1: Stephen j Esterbrook? I think, you know, look, I think 436 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 1: being nimble, being flexible that and and listening to what 437 00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 1: your customers without doing, you know, going too far straight 438 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,240 Speaker 1: from your core value propositions. I think everybody can learn that. Sir, 439 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:09,880 Speaker 1: just terrific. Thank you, Sarah Snatory short notice on Bernstein McDonald. 440 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 1: There was the L word pim listen. It's just stunning. 441 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 442 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 443 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:32,879 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane. Before 444 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:37,119 Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.