Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news Now. The International Monetary
Speaker 1: Fund now expects China to grow by five percent this year,
Speaker 1: raising its forecast from earlier this year to reflect these
Speaker 1: strong expansions so far and recent support supportive policies from Beijing.
Speaker 1: The IMF's first Deputy Managing Director, get It cup and Aarthurs,
Speaker 1: told Bloomberg that although there are signs the Chinese economy
Speaker 1: is recovering, more needs to be done within the property
Speaker 1: sector and to support low income households.
Speaker 2: We've upgraded China's growth by zero point four percentage points
Speaker 2: for this year and for next, so we have growth
Speaker 2: now projected at five percent for this year and four
Speaker 2: point six percent for next year. There are two main
Speaker 2: drivers for that. The first is the better than expected
Speaker 2: first quarter GDP numbers that came out for twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: That is lifting up our growth projection. And the second
Speaker 2: is we have incorporated some of the newer announcements that
Speaker 2: have been made on the policy front. So those are
Speaker 2: the two main reasons for the upgrade.
Speaker 3: But some say five percent is actually out of reach
Speaker 3: for China. They say private sector sentiment is still weak.
Speaker 3: The property sector is also in the Doldrum sixteen million
Speaker 3: home still unsold, and some point to Chinavanka under a
Speaker 3: lot of financial stress at some point, Gita, that is
Speaker 3: likely to weigh on confidence, way on sentiment, way on
Speaker 3: growth as well. What's your take on that.
Speaker 2: So China's economy is continuing to recover, so we certainly
Speaker 2: are seeing that consumption is recovering, but still it has
Speaker 2: some ways to go. The strength we're seeing in public
Speaker 2: investment remains. Private investments is still weak, mainly because of
Speaker 2: the weakness and the property sector. So we are seeing
Speaker 2: signs of recovery, but yes, there is still more that
Speaker 2: needs to We need to see more evidence of that.
Speaker 2: But I think despite that, we do expect that growth
Speaker 2: will be around five percent this year.
Speaker 3: What more needs to be done?
Speaker 2: So, firstly, I would like to rec recognize the policy
Speaker 2: steps that have been taken. I mean the recent announcement
Speaker 2: which involves upgrading equipment of firms but also consumer goods
Speaker 2: of households. That can help, but yes, in our view
Speaker 2: more will be needed, and so specifically on the property
Speaker 2: sector front, I think what would be very helpful is
Speaker 2: to deal with the problem of pre sold housing. So
Speaker 2: there are large number of houses that have been presold
Speaker 2: but have not been completed. Here we see a bigger
Speaker 2: role for the central government to come in and to
Speaker 2: deal with that, to be able to complete those pre
Speaker 2: sold houses, because when that happens, that's going to help
Speaker 2: household confidence, which is really essential at this time. It
Speaker 2: also will help with the exit of non viable developers. Secondly,
Speaker 2: in terms of providing support, While overall we think that
Speaker 2: there should be a fiscal neutral stance, I think it
Speaker 2: is important that the spending goes in the direction of
Speaker 2: helping low income households because that they are the ones
Speaker 2: who are able to consume more of that additional income,
Speaker 2: and that will also provide a boost to the economy.
Speaker 3: How are you assessing other risks? Some say that there's
Speaker 3: a risk of a new trade war. Of course, we
Speaker 3: had from G seven finance ministers calling out China on
Speaker 3: its trade practices. We have the US saying that it
Speaker 3: will reimpose those terriffs expiring, and we have China itself
Speaker 3: saying that it might impose twenty five percent tariffs on
Speaker 3: important autos from the US as well as Europe. How
Speaker 3: might this play out? How might it impact China's economy
Speaker 3: as well? As the economy of the world.
Speaker 2: I was justin Strasser for these G seven meetings, so
Speaker 2: I'm coming from there, and you know, there is certainly
Speaker 2: we're certainly living in times where there is questions being
Speaker 2: raised about the global trading system and the fairness of it.
Speaker 2: The IMF as a general rule, we are strongly in
Speaker 2: favor of an open, rule based trading system and therefore
Speaker 2: any dispute that countries have with each other beliefs should
Speaker 2: be handled through the multilateral trading system, I mean through
Speaker 2: the WTO Now there are concerns that are being raised.
Speaker 2: Industrial policies is something that comes up in conversations everywhere.
Speaker 2: Many countries deploy industrial policies that has implications not just
Speaker 2: for their own resource allocation, but also potential spill over
Speaker 2: was to the rest of the world, and that is
Speaker 2: generating risks of greater fragmentation. But here's where we think
Speaker 2: it's critical for countries not to move unilaterally outside the
Speaker 2: multilateral trading system to address this, but to work with
Speaker 2: each other to strengthen the trading system, to come up
Speaker 2: with better rules of engagement. When you have countries using
Speaker 2: subsidies so that there's a common agreed principle on how
Speaker 2: to deal with these kinds of issues.
Speaker 3: You talking about industrial policy over capacity. That was one
Speaker 3: issue that was raised to us by Lamaire In an
Speaker 3: interview with Bloomberg. He says that perhaps cheap Chinese goods
Speaker 3: will be detrimental to the whole global economy. How are
Speaker 3: you assessing so?
Speaker 2: Firstly, I think when we are looking at China, we
Speaker 2: should just step back and recognize the macro situation. So
Speaker 2: the fact that overall demand in China remains weak, we
Speaker 2: still have a negative output gap predicted for China. In
Speaker 2: an environment where there is weak demand, of course, that's
Speaker 2: going to generate imbalances, and that's where actually needs to
Speaker 2: be taken. Keep setting aside the implications for the rest
Speaker 2: of the world. Just for China itself being able to
Speaker 2: raise demand is going to be very helpful. Secondly, again
Speaker 2: for all countries, including China, that are deploying industrial policies,
Speaker 2: you have to make sure you're doing this in a targeted,
Speaker 2: in a manner which is also temporary. Otherwise you're going
Speaker 2: to end up with just misallocating resources within your own country. Again,
Speaker 2: setting aside, the spillow is to the rest of the world.
Speaker 2: So for individual countries perspective, it is important to make
Speaker 2: sure the resources get well allocated. And sometimes these industrial
Speaker 2: policies just distort signals and you end up with a
Speaker 2: much less productive economy. So these are you know, issues
Speaker 2: the countries need to pay a close attention to.
Speaker 1: That was the IMF's first Deputy Managing Director, Gita Gopana,
Speaker 1: speaking exclusively with Bloomberg's HASSLANDA Amen