Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It is time for
Speaker 1: our early look at next week's lines, and there are
Speaker 1: some pretty interesting ones out for week four. With me
Speaker 1: to break it all down is Rich Ryan, host of
Speaker 1: the Gridiron Gamble podcast. You can find Rich on Twitter
Speaker 1: at rich t Ryan.
Speaker 2: Rich.
Speaker 1: How's it going?
Speaker 2: It is going quite well. It's still nice and warm
Speaker 2: out here in beautiful southern California. I like you are now.
Speaker 2: I used to be an East Coaster and I will
Speaker 2: never find myself back on the East Coast barring something incredible,
Speaker 2: because I can't get away from the sunshine and warmth.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm not just the East Coast, to be clear.
Speaker 1: I'm like Northeast Coast, so usually we're covered in snow,
Speaker 1: but today was ninety so I'm basically right where you are. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's the best.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I'm actually really glad that you're on the show because
Speaker 1: I didn't know this, but we were talking right before
Speaker 1: we recorded. Like me, you are also a Jets fan,
Speaker 1: so we can basically commiserate together, except for the fact
Speaker 1: that the Jets are on a bye this week, so
Speaker 1: we do not have to work out now. Theoretically, if
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers were facing the Jets on a
Speaker 1: neutral field, I don't know, eight and a half maybe depends,
Speaker 1: I guess on if Darnold was going to play.
Speaker 2: But I feel like.
Speaker 1: Whatever it would be, you would have to hammer home
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers no matter what, because if you've
Speaker 1: watched the Jets, especially with Luke Falk, you are not
Speaker 1: optimistic right now on their season. But in the meantime,
Speaker 1: Rich and I are going to go game by game
Speaker 1: here for Week four, and we're going to start with
Speaker 1: the Thursday night game between the Packers and the Eagles,
Speaker 1: and we'll end with the Monday night game between the
Speaker 1: Bengals and the Steelers. And again I will note that
Speaker 1: the Jets and the forty nine Ers are on by
Speaker 1: here this week, so this is the first time we
Speaker 1: don't have a full slate, so we can really hammer
Speaker 1: down on the games that are remaining. Now, we're going
Speaker 1: to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 1: That's an aggregation of the odds that are available in
Speaker 1: the market, but as always, there are going to be
Speaker 1: differences in the various sportsbooks, so make sure to shop
Speaker 1: around for the best odds. Also, if you want to
Speaker 1: see how some of the top sports betting experts are
Speaker 1: leaning on any given bet at any time, bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: Com is going to show you that too. All right, Rich,
Speaker 1: let's dive right in here with the Eagles at the
Speaker 1: Packers on Thursday night. We've got the Packers laying four
Speaker 1: and a half. Now, this opened much lower as you
Speaker 1: might have expected, at two and a half, but it
Speaker 1: has moved to four and a half and the over
Speaker 1: under is currently at forty five and it was originally
Speaker 1: at forty eight. I assume that this movement is because
Speaker 1: the Eagles are dealing with a ton of injuries, right yeah,
Speaker 1: And the.
Speaker 2: Injuries we knew going into last week were mostly of
Speaker 2: their weapons on the defensive side. We did have Timmy
Speaker 2: Jernigan Jernigant injured, and then of course we know about
Speaker 2: al Seon Jeffery and some of the receiving weapons there.
Speaker 2: But then within the game we get Jason Peters with
Speaker 2: an illness. He's replaced by Andre Dillard at left tackle.
Speaker 2: We thought they had an embarrassment of riches upfront. He
Speaker 2: goes out with an injury, so some compounding injuries outside
Speaker 2: of the skill positions that we knew about last week.
Speaker 2: And then on the other of the ball, the Packers
Speaker 2: three and zero, a lot of defense to start this
Speaker 2: season at home. What's really a shame about this game
Speaker 2: is that it's on Thursday night. Two great teams. I
Speaker 2: wish they had more time to prepare for this game,
Speaker 2: and I think that kind of plays into both the
Speaker 2: line and the total. The public is absolutely smashing the
Speaker 2: Packers right now. I'm seeing a seventy three percent clip
Speaker 2: on the number of bets being laid, and I tend
Speaker 2: to lean their way, but you're right about the opener
Speaker 2: look ahead was in the same range two and a
Speaker 2: half three, So we're seeing about a point a half
Speaker 2: movement based upon last week's performance of the Eagles looking
Speaker 2: terrible at home and getting more injuries, and then the
Speaker 2: Packers of course covering as big home favorites against the
Speaker 2: Denver Broncos in a game that was probably a little
Speaker 2: closer than people think. So I think I shade the
Speaker 2: Packers here, but with so much public sentiment piling on
Speaker 2: in Green Bay. I think I'm in wait and see
Speaker 2: mode right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, fading the public is usually a pretty sound strategy
Speaker 1: going on over here. Although last week, you know the Rams.
Speaker 1: I remember thinking from Sunday night that the Rams were
Speaker 1: such a public play and I wanted to get off it,
Speaker 1: but I couldn't because they were laying three And eventually,
Speaker 1: with all the injuries to the Cleveland secondary, that line moves.
Speaker 1: But sometimes you know, the public has it right, it's
Speaker 1: not always the best strategy now. Also, the Eagles as
Speaker 1: well lost Ronald Darby, so they are really banged up here.
Speaker 1: I think he's out for four weeks. He is certainly
Speaker 1: out for this game. It does sound like Jeffrey has
Speaker 1: a chance to play here. Deshaun Jackson is out. I
Speaker 1: don't really think it's going to make a difference at
Speaker 1: this point. They are just so banged up and really
Speaker 1: in the end, the bottom line is the Packers. Their
Speaker 1: defense is really strong, and it's really really strong against
Speaker 1: the pass. Their cornerbacks are playing extremely well. They're a
Speaker 1: little vulnerable on the ground. You mentioned the Broncos. They
Speaker 1: showed that a little bit on Sunday with Philip Lindsay
Speaker 1: having a good game. Royce Freeman wasn't bad either, But
Speaker 1: you know, I know Miles Sanders had a huge game
Speaker 1: against the Lions, but in the end, they don't really
Speaker 1: want to rely on that. Sanders had some fumble issues.
Speaker 1: It's not like Jordan Howard is going to tear it up.
Speaker 1: So in the end, the way to attack the Packers
Speaker 1: here is on the ground. And with everything they've got
Speaker 1: going on, with the injuries to their defense, with their
Speaker 1: lack of a strong running game, I'm not surprised that
Speaker 1: this line has moved already as much as it has,
Speaker 1: and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets up to
Speaker 1: five by the time it goes. I like you lean
Speaker 1: towards the Packers at this point. The total I don't
Speaker 1: really have a great feel for right now. I mean
Speaker 1: it's dropped again by three points, I believe from the
Speaker 1: look aheadline, So that's understandable. The Eagles are still putting
Speaker 1: up points even with all their injuries. I mean, the
Speaker 1: Lions don't have a terrible defense and they still wind
Speaker 1: up putting up points. Although I did see some bizarre
Speaker 1: stat that Wentz was tied for I think he had
Speaker 1: three drops on deep passes, which was tied among if
Speaker 1: you combined all other quarterbacks yesterday or something like that.
Speaker 1: It's I mean, nelsonageler Man, he makes some place but
Speaker 1: I can't. So I think you and I are pretty
Speaker 1: much in agreement on this one. We look right now
Speaker 1: for the Packers four and a half, probably maybe five.
Speaker 1: It's Thursday, so it doesn't have as much time to move.
Speaker 1: But it is one where I feel like we'll both
Speaker 1: probably in the end come out on the side of
Speaker 1: the public, but not something that we really feel overly
Speaker 1: strongly about, right, Yeah.
Speaker 2: For sure. And if you're listening to us and saying, well,
Speaker 2: these guys are idiots, I think the Eagles are being
Speaker 2: totally undervalued coming off of that game. Then, like you said,
Speaker 2: the strategy there is probably to wait and see if
Speaker 2: this game creeps up a little bit. We're not talking
Speaker 2: about key numbers here. I don't think it'll over flirt
Speaker 2: with seven or anything like that. But you know, you
Speaker 2: can always get the half point of value a point
Speaker 2: of value here, and those those can really at the
Speaker 2: end of the day be winners and help you on
Speaker 2: the loane. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, you never know on this one. I can't see
Speaker 1: the line dropping from four and a half, so if
Speaker 1: you do, like the Eagles, you might as well just
Speaker 1: wait it out as long as possible. Let's move on
Speaker 1: to the Panthers at the Texans. Interesting one here, with
Speaker 1: Kyle Allen getting the start again already Cam Newton to
Speaker 1: clear it out. Texans here are laying four and a half.
Speaker 1: The over under is at forty six. Thoughts on this.
Speaker 2: One another game where the public is definitely favoring the
Speaker 2: home team. We're seeing the Texans getting about seventy percent
Speaker 2: of the tickets. Look aheadline didn't move really at all.
Speaker 2: I'm seeing a five and a half look ahead, so
Speaker 2: I guess down to points and most of that has
Speaker 2: to do with Kyle Allen coming in and looking competent,
Speaker 2: and anybody that watched Week seventeen last year Panthers at Saints,
Speaker 2: we saw a Saints team that was still jocking for
Speaker 2: a position in the NFC, playing a meaningful game at home,
Speaker 2: and Kyle Allen kind of marched up and down the
Speaker 2: field against them before suffering an injury and the third
Speaker 2: string quarterback had to jump in. With Cam Newton out
Speaker 2: for the season, this is another game where it's a
Speaker 2: dead number. It's two teams that I'm still not super
Speaker 2: confident in either one. I think the Panthers have a
Speaker 2: decent amount of talent, specifically on the defensive side of
Speaker 2: the ball, but that can be neutralized by a passing
Speaker 2: attack as ferocious as the Houston Texans. What I was
Speaker 2: really impressed by, and luckily I caught a lot of
Speaker 2: the Texans game last year. Last week, sorry since he
Speaker 2: was against the Chargers and it was here on the
Speaker 2: local CBS affiliate, is the Texans offensive line is starting
Speaker 2: to come together a little bit. Tounsoll looked really good
Speaker 2: at left tackle, and that was obviously their biggest woe
Speaker 2: coming into the season. We talked about Andre Dillard there
Speaker 2: briefly for the Eagles, and they kind of got sniped
Speaker 2: in the NFL Draft. They were about to pick Dillard
Speaker 2: and the Eagles traded up to take him right in
Speaker 2: front of him, which kind of triggered their trade for Tunsel.
Speaker 2: So another game where I don't have a very strong opinion.
Speaker 2: I think I have the slightest of leans towards the Texans,
Speaker 2: but I'm definitely intrigued as to what Kyle Allen can
Speaker 2: bring to this Panthers offense.
Speaker 1: I have zero feel for this game. I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: be completely honest, I really do, and I think it's
Speaker 1: partly because I don't really know what we can expect
Speaker 1: from Kyle Allen. Again, the Cardinals have a terrible defense.
Speaker 1: He looked great, but the Cardinals are really not doing
Speaker 1: it when they're down both their starting cornerbacks. So look,
Speaker 1: the Panthers could very easily be three and zero if
Speaker 1: Cam Newton could throw the ball pretty much at all.
Speaker 1: I do like their team really, I mean he was
Speaker 1: especially the game against the Bucks. Forget if he just
Speaker 1: gave that one away. They really are a strong team
Speaker 1: and I like them a lot. And the Texans are fine.
Speaker 1: I was a big Texans backer before the season. Their
Speaker 1: offensive line did play a little bit better yesterday against
Speaker 1: the Chargers, but still Watson holds the ball way too long.
Speaker 1: I feel like he is just out there gunning for
Speaker 1: an injury. But in the end, I just don't feel
Speaker 1: like I have a good sense of what the Panthers
Speaker 1: are yet, so this game, I don't know what the
Speaker 1: line would have to be to make me feel comfortable
Speaker 1: either way, but it sounds like you're kind of there
Speaker 1: maybe a slight lean on the Texans for you. I'm
Speaker 1: kind of a stay away on this game at this point.
Speaker 1: At four and a half sounds about like the right number,
Speaker 1: and probably again you said it, it didn't move barely
Speaker 1: at all from the look ahead number. It hasn't moved
Speaker 1: since I checked it early yesterday. So in the end,
Speaker 1: I think this is one that's probably right about on
Speaker 1: par and not one that I see a whole lot of.
Speaker 2: Value in watching last year and watching Deshaun Watson, as
Speaker 2: you say, I feel like there's very few opportunities for
Speaker 2: us to get him fully healthy. And you could probably
Speaker 2: throw Will Fuller in there too, perennial out for the
Speaker 2: season player Will Fuller. So I feel like there's a
Speaker 2: modicum of value that when these two guys are upright
Speaker 2: and we can place a wager on them, there might
Speaker 2: be some value there. So maybe I'm just grasping onto
Speaker 2: those two guys while they're still standing. No, I like it.
Speaker 1: They're relatively healthy and you do want to jump on
Speaker 1: them when they are. And Kenny Stills has added another
Speaker 1: dimension two to the passing game. He's been a nice
Speaker 1: a sedition. Let's move on to the Browns. At the Ravens.
Speaker 1: The Ravens now are minus seven. I think I checked
Speaker 1: yesterday and it might have been minus four and a
Speaker 1: half before that Browns game. I don't know. The over
Speaker 1: unders said it forty six and a half. The seven
Speaker 1: number for me is tough once it got to the
Speaker 1: key number. I mean, I loved, certainly the Ravens at
Speaker 1: minus four and a half. The Browns look in total
Speaker 1: this ray, even though they could have tied that game
Speaker 1: up pretty easily had they had even a remotely decent
Speaker 1: play caller.
Speaker 2: But what's the reaction here?
Speaker 1: Ravens minus seven over under at forty six and a half.
Speaker 2: I'm done giving out ugly slight public leans. This line
Speaker 2: to me is pretty stupid. Like you said, you saw
Speaker 2: a four and a half look ahead, there was a
Speaker 2: three and a half out there prior to the games
Speaker 2: that were played this entire week, and I believe Friday
Speaker 2: I looked at this when I wrote this down. We're
Speaker 2: really moving the line three and a half points because
Speaker 2: the Browns looked inept on national television. Granted, the Ravens
Speaker 2: looked good on the road. They actually went punch for
Speaker 2: punch for the Chiefs. I think you can call that
Speaker 2: a back door cover though the Chiefs. It seems like,
Speaker 2: especially after that second quarter blitzkrieg, which seems to be
Speaker 2: their new trend, they were in control of that game
Speaker 2: and the Ravens are just kind of punching up for
Speaker 2: the remainder of it. But this line should be way
Speaker 2: shorter than what it is right now. The Browns, I
Speaker 2: don't think they'll look as bad as they did last week.
Speaker 2: And it's really hard to take anything away from that
Speaker 2: Jets game, because one can say that the Browns should
Speaker 2: have dominated that game even more than they did. But
Speaker 2: it's got to be really hard to get up for
Speaker 2: a game against Trevor Simeon and then once Falco's in
Speaker 2: there and you're just kind of going through the motions,
Speaker 2: I don't know how much we can really take away
Speaker 2: from that. So now that this has moved to a
Speaker 2: key number of seven, you've got seventy seven percent of
Speaker 2: the public just piling on a very public home team here.
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of value in the seven,
Speaker 2: and as somebody who plays the super contests like you,
Speaker 2: I am praying that we get this full seven when
Speaker 2: the west Gate lines come out on Wednesday.
Speaker 1: All Right, so that's gonna be one of your picks,
Speaker 1: and I am less confident. I agree that seven strikes
Speaker 1: me as a very high number. I completely agree at
Speaker 1: four and a half or three and a half, I
Speaker 1: was all over it. At seven, that's really tough, and
Speaker 1: a divisional game, which is always kind of throws everything
Speaker 1: a little bit into the air. I agree that the
Speaker 1: Browns are better than they have shown so far. They
Speaker 1: could have easily won that game yesterday if they didn't
Speaker 1: shoot themselves in the foot. They did not look good
Speaker 1: against the Jets. Okay, I agree that it's hard to
Speaker 1: get up for that game, but they really really did
Speaker 1: not look good and that sort of put me off
Speaker 1: them a little bit. Seven is a really tough number.
Speaker 1: The public's gonna continue to pound the Ravens without a doubt,
Speaker 1: right I mean, and it's just it's a one to
Speaker 1: eighty from where we were preseason, right, Everybody that the
Speaker 1: highest bet team to win the Super Bowl was the Browns.
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield I think was the most bet to win
Speaker 1: the MVP, and now everybody's just running away from them
Speaker 1: based on how they look. I agree the seven number.
Speaker 1: It just makes me uncomfortable. I don't I agree that
Speaker 1: when you're looking at it the values with the Browns
Speaker 1: at that number, I really don't know if I'm gonna
Speaker 1: be able to take it at seven. I bet it
Speaker 1: stays there. I don't think it's gonna drop below the
Speaker 1: key number. I bet you they're gonna keep it there
Speaker 1: because they're just gonna keep getting money. Oh, sure, on
Speaker 1: the Ravens. So I think if you like the Browns,
Speaker 1: you can wait it out. I don't think it's gonna
Speaker 1: move very much. I don't think you're gonna lose any
Speaker 1: value unless you think it could drop below the key number.
Speaker 1: Now in light of all the public betting, I don't
Speaker 1: see it. But do you think any chance it drops
Speaker 1: back down to six and a half or six?
Speaker 2: Well, if it moves, if it's being this heavily bet
Speaker 2: on the raven side and it breaks the key number
Speaker 2: and goes down to six and a half, that means
Speaker 2: the sharpest in which means you might want to fire
Speaker 2: like Browns money line.
Speaker 1: If that's an If it moves the other way with
Speaker 1: a public betting, yeah, you go right after the Browns
Speaker 1: right there, so we'll see. I don't know it sounds
Speaker 1: like you think it might get more sharp action. I
Speaker 1: don't know, man, I don't know. I'll be honest, I'm
Speaker 1: not I'm not as as optimistic on the Browns the
Speaker 1: rest of season, but this is one.
Speaker 2: This is one of those where when it hurts right,
Speaker 2: when you have to pinch your nose to get every
Speaker 2: sense of stench away from the pick, you know it's
Speaker 2: the right side.
Speaker 1: Boy. That is a fantastic philosophy and I definitely think
Speaker 1: that Better should adopt it going forward. Chiefs at Lions,
Speaker 1: Chiefs laying six and a half over under at fifty four,
Speaker 1: that's a that's a high total there. What do you think,
Speaker 1: Chiefs laying six and a half over under fifty four.
Speaker 2: You had Rufus Peabody on last week and you guys
Speaker 2: had a really great sidebar about Modelbusters guys teams that
Speaker 2: are on the outlier, that it's really hard for models
Speaker 2: to adjust for them. And Roof has talked about how
Speaker 2: he is okay with being wrong when it comes to
Speaker 2: the outliers, and it makes sense he wants to regress
Speaker 2: everything to the mean and if he's putting a similar
Speaker 2: type bet, like if his units are consistent across and
Speaker 2: he just loses these let these couple outlier bets. He's
Speaker 2: fine with that because in the long run he's gonna win,
Speaker 2: which which makes a ton of a ton of sense.
Speaker 2: And the Chiefs just like the Patriots. These they're they're
Speaker 2: just they're just modelbusters, man, and and it it doesn't
Speaker 2: matter who's on the other side, it doesn't matter what
Speaker 2: the conditions are. These two second quarter performances, first against
Speaker 2: Oakland and last week against the Ravens have been things
Speaker 2: that you could only do in a video game.
Speaker 1: And I like, he's not human, it's not Mahomes is
Speaker 1: not normal. I I know where you're going. That's exactly
Speaker 1: where you're going. You cannot, would you.
Speaker 2: I don't.
Speaker 1: I can't see a scenario. Although I think the line,
Speaker 1: probably to be fair, should be based if I hadn't
Speaker 1: my models sitting here, it would probably be closer, closer
Speaker 1: to five and a half maybe six.
Speaker 2: But it's heavy. But I'm not touching. I'm not touching.
Speaker 1: Oh god, I love that answer. That is absolutely correct.
Speaker 1: You cannot touches. And look, they didn't cover against the Ravens,
Speaker 1: and there was a lot of I think heavy action
Speaker 1: in on the Ravens this past week, but it was
Speaker 1: a backdoor cover. As you said, they could have easily
Speaker 1: blown that game away, you know, and easily won by
Speaker 1: ten or twelve points that they if they really wanted to.
Speaker 1: I agree, Man, it's just not where I'm touching it.
Speaker 1: I think there's value in the Lions. I think realistically,
Speaker 1: if you looked at the game, that it should be
Speaker 1: closer to six, maybe even five and a half. The
Speaker 1: Lions are a good team. Surprisingly, they played the Eagles tough,
Speaker 1: they played the Chargers tough. They should have beaten the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: They could be three and zero right now. So for me,
Speaker 1: I'm just not going anywhere. If anything, I think I'd
Speaker 1: probably back the Chiefs just because it's basically a model buster.
Speaker 2: Yeah, like you said about the Lions. The Lions go
Speaker 2: on the road last week as a big do win outright,
Speaker 2: and the line moves a point and a half in
Speaker 2: the other direction, and the public is piling seventy seven
Speaker 2: percent on that team. Right. This is otherworldly what we're
Speaker 2: seeing from it. It really is.
Speaker 1: The One thing to note is that I Darius Lay
Speaker 1: injured his hamstring in the last game. It is possible
Speaker 1: that he's going to miss In fact, I think the
Speaker 1: latest report sounded like it was likely, and that's only
Speaker 1: going to bolster the Chiefs chances here. But in the
Speaker 1: end it doesn't really matter because Mahomes makes unreal throws,
Speaker 1: but half the time the guys are just running down
Speaker 1: the field completely uncovered. It doesn't really matter. So in
Speaker 1: the end, if Sleigh is out, I certainly lean stronger
Speaker 1: towards the Chiefs. If I had to pick a side,
Speaker 1: it would be the Chiefs. But man, it is just
Speaker 1: difficult to properly analyze these types of games because mymes,
Speaker 1: he's a video game. Like you said, it's just not normal.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Patriots at the Bills.
Speaker 1: We finally have a normal Patriots spread. This is Patriots
Speaker 1: minus seven. The over under is that forty three. Julian
Speaker 1: Edelman did injure his ribs I believe, or his chest.
Speaker 1: That's called both. Josh Gordon left on and off with
Speaker 1: the injury yesterday, and of course they no longer have
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown. What's your I have a kind of a
Speaker 1: strong reaction to this one, So let me know if
Speaker 1: you feel anything on the Patriots link seven over under
Speaker 1: forty three in Buffalo.
Speaker 2: I'm more interested to hear you because I'm very much
Speaker 2: on the fence about this because historically, like the Patriots
Speaker 2: or like the Chiefs, the Patriots are the model busters.
Speaker 2: And my gut, my total analysis is saying, of course
Speaker 2: the Bills of the right side, we're talking about a
Speaker 2: division game getting a full seven. I'm seeing minus one
Speaker 2: sixteen on the betting pros view right now, which means
Speaker 2: the action is definitely on the Bills, and there's a
Speaker 2: chance that this could fall to six and a half.
Speaker 2: So if you're out there and you are intrigued by
Speaker 2: a buffalo, now might be the time to grab them
Speaker 2: while you get the full seven. But just like the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: you just don't make money betting against the New England Patriots.
Speaker 2: So if I'm going to do anything in this game,
Speaker 2: I might go for a long teaser and drop the
Speaker 2: Pats down to one and pair them with another side.
Speaker 2: But me personally, I'm not gonna be happy holding a
Speaker 2: plus seven ticket and watching this game an Orchard Park.
Speaker 1: It is really interesting this year, Like, you're never gonna
Speaker 1: feel comfortable taking the Dolphins. They could be getting twenty
Speaker 1: four points and you're just gonna be like, I just
Speaker 1: I know this is value, but I do not feel
Speaker 1: comfortable in it. You're gonna feel the same way when
Speaker 1: you bet against the Patriots, which is why I think, honestly,
Speaker 1: this is not a high enough spread.
Speaker 2: I know it.
Speaker 1: Look, the Bills are three, and now they're playing at home.
Speaker 1: They've got a nice home field advantage. But I don't
Speaker 1: I mean, if ed Only doesn't play, perhaps, okay, maybe
Speaker 1: I get it because they're just kind of running out
Speaker 1: of options at this point. But in the end, I
Speaker 1: just don't really fully buy what we've seen from Buffalo
Speaker 1: right now. They have beaten up on three really really
Speaker 1: weak teams, the Jets, the Giants, and the Bengals, who
Speaker 1: are probably the best of the bunch. The Patriots have
Speaker 1: gone up there at least the last two years, I
Speaker 1: think the last three and just demolish the Bills, blown
Speaker 1: them out of the water. I see that happening again.
Speaker 1: I think they want to make a statement coming in
Speaker 1: here and show just how good they are. I think
Speaker 1: that defense, although again the Patriots have also generally had
Speaker 1: soft matchups. They did have the Steelers in Week one,
Speaker 1: but Ben probably was dealing with the elbow injury. I
Speaker 1: think they're going to go up there and I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna pound, and honestly, there's no way I'm betting
Speaker 1: against them pretty much under any circumstances at this point.
Speaker 1: It's a little bit like the model buster theory, like
Speaker 1: you said. But for me, I look, as much as
Speaker 1: the early money might be coming in, if I like
Speaker 1: the Bills, I'd actually wait this out because I think
Speaker 1: it's going to get past the key number. I think
Speaker 1: this closes its seven and a half or eight, because
Speaker 1: I think eventually, when you look at it the Bills, it's,
Speaker 1: you know, as much as their defense is solid, absolutely
Speaker 1: they're not good enough to stop the Patriots because no
Speaker 1: defense is and their offense, I mean, it's fine, but
Speaker 1: if Singletary is out again, I mean they kind of
Speaker 1: grinded out that win against the Cincinnati team that was
Speaker 1: run all over by San Francisco the week before. So
Speaker 1: for me, I think once you the Bills get behind,
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna be able to run the
Speaker 1: ball as much as they want. You're gonna have to
Speaker 1: put in Josh Allen's hands. There's gonna be like forty interceptions.
Speaker 1: So I think in the end this spread is actually
Speaker 1: going to go a little higher when all things sort
Speaker 1: of settle and that if you want the Bills, I
Speaker 1: might actually wait it out because I think the spread
Speaker 1: might go a little bit higher.
Speaker 2: I definitely agree that the Bills seem to be a
Speaker 2: bit overvalued, while it's not being shown in this spread. Again, again,
Speaker 2: this is the Bills going to three and zero and
Speaker 2: the look aheadline is up a half point in the
Speaker 2: other direction. But yeah, you're right, Bills. They win at Jets,
Speaker 2: at Giants home to Bengals. Basically, this isn't a zero
Speaker 2: zero team.
Speaker 1: And by the way they lost against the Jets, they
Speaker 1: should have if CJ. Moseley does not get injured in
Speaker 1: that game, they were down sixteen to nothing. I believe
Speaker 1: they do not come back to win that game. So
Speaker 1: I'm really I just they're a decent team, and I
Speaker 1: think they were at six and a half wins by
Speaker 1: the way. Preseason I had the over on them. I
Speaker 1: listed them in one of our preseason episodes. But I
Speaker 1: just don't see it. I think the Patriots are going
Speaker 1: to blow them out of the water.
Speaker 2: See J. Mosley, No good deed goes unpunished, makes an
Speaker 2: amazing play in coverage, and of course Hurts is going.
Speaker 1: That's how it happens, but it looks like we're a
Speaker 1: little bit on different sides. You're not jumping for joy
Speaker 1: over the bills, but I have a strong Patriots leane.
Speaker 1: I think the line's going to move up. So we'll
Speaker 1: see about that one before we move on to our
Speaker 1: next game. I do want to tell everyone about the
Speaker 1: sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Now I've been telling
Speaker 1: you about bet mgm pretty much the entire length of
Speaker 1: this podcast. It's the easiest and best way to place
Speaker 1: a bet if you're in the state of New Jersey.
Speaker 1: Just search for and download the bet mgm Sports app
Speaker 1: on your phone or visit betmgm dot com. Sign up
Speaker 1: for an account, and you can place a bet right
Speaker 1: from your home and betmgm offers a ton of features
Speaker 1: that make sports betting even better. They offer early cash
Speaker 1: out where you can settle a bet before the game
Speaker 1: ends to lock in your winnings.
Speaker 2: Or cut your losses.
Speaker 1: You can track your bets in real time, and they
Speaker 1: offer daily boosted bets and promotions across all major sports.
Speaker 1: And they've got this great promotion right now where you
Speaker 1: can place a risk free five hundred dollars bet. Here's
Speaker 1: how It works when you download the betmgm Sports app
Speaker 1: and you sign up using our promo code Harris. That
Speaker 1: is my last name, Harris. Then your first bet of
Speaker 1: up to five hundred dollars is risk free. If you lose,
Speaker 1: betmgm is going to credit you the amount you lost
Speaker 1: up to five hundred dollars for future wagers. Just download
Speaker 1: the app and use the promo code Harris to claim
Speaker 1: the promotion, and you can go to betmgm dot com
Speaker 1: for further details. You must be twenty one years or older.
Speaker 1: And although you can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere,
Speaker 1: you must be in the state of New Jersey to
Speaker 1: place the sports bet. Just visit betmgm dot com for
Speaker 1: the full list of terms and conditions. And if you've
Speaker 1: got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right,
Speaker 1: let's move to the next game here, Chargers at Dolphins.
Speaker 1: This also hasn't moved as far as I could tell.
Speaker 1: The Chargers are laying sixteen and a half, the smallest
Speaker 1: spread we've seen with the Dolphins in a while, and
Speaker 1: the over unders had forty four and a half. Thoughts
Speaker 1: on this one.
Speaker 2: This is the week, right, This has to be it.
Speaker 2: This is it. You're going with the Dolphins. This has
Speaker 2: to be it. The Dolphins inside the number for the
Speaker 2: entire game last week until Pollard walked in with a
Speaker 2: touchdown towards the end there. If you had real money
Speaker 2: in the Dolphins last week, I apologize because that should
Speaker 2: have been the week. But this is definitely the week
Speaker 2: for those of you that are listening to this and
Speaker 2: that listen to Gridiron Gamble. Since the preseason, we've been
Speaker 2: asking questions about this Chargers team, and all they've done
Speaker 2: since then is lose Derwin James. They lost cornerback. I
Speaker 2: believe it was in Michael Davis. And you've never heard
Speaker 2: of Michael Davis probably I probably had never heard of
Speaker 2: him before he got hurt. But one of our rules
Speaker 2: on the podcast is if you don't know somebody and
Speaker 2: they're out, just imagine how bad their backup is, because
Speaker 2: they're gonna be taking the field. This is a bad
Speaker 2: Chargers team. This is a six and ten type roster
Speaker 2: that we're clinging onto last year's late run and playoff
Speaker 2: plays into this season, and that's just not the case.
Speaker 2: I think this game is going to be surprise closer
Speaker 2: than people think Rosen looked good last week, did not
Speaker 2: get any help from his receivers. But as Rufus said
Speaker 2: last week, this is a professional football team with professional players,
Speaker 2: and I really think this is the week that the
Speaker 2: Dolphins play a competitive game, and I love them at
Speaker 2: this number.
Speaker 1: Actually, it's all, Oh, that's like the strongest take that
Speaker 1: I have heard in a while, and I love it
Speaker 1: and I'm really excited by it.
Speaker 2: Look, the Dolphins could have been.
Speaker 1: Ahead yesterday at halftime. Okay, if Kenyan Drake doesn't fumble
Speaker 1: the ball, if anybody can hold on to the ball,
Speaker 1: they might go into halftime ahead. And like you said,
Speaker 1: they pretty much should have covered had they not blown
Speaker 1: it at the very end. It's a West Coast team
Speaker 1: traveling east. The only thing I will say is that
Speaker 1: the charters are probably pretty mad and they're pretty desperate
Speaker 1: for a win. They are banged up, as they are
Speaker 1: always banged up, as you point out, so I can
Speaker 1: see it certainly being close. But again, this is one
Speaker 1: of these things where, man, I know, I know that
Speaker 1: the right way to do it is just a bench,
Speaker 1: you know, to keep kind of putting money at the
Speaker 1: Dolphins where there's value. I don't know if I could
Speaker 1: do it, I certainly don't feel as strong as you do,
Speaker 1: but I admire your enthusiasm.
Speaker 2: Man. I think it's fair.
Speaker 1: I think in the end, when push comes to shove,
Speaker 1: if it stays at this number, and as far as
Speaker 1: I've seen there's been no signs of it moving, I
Speaker 1: probably would lean towards the Dolphins. I agree with you
Speaker 1: that they are just a little bit better than they've shown,
Speaker 1: and they looked better yesterday until ultimately blowing it. So
Speaker 1: that is something where I don't think I expected you
Speaker 1: to come up and be like this is it Dolphins
Speaker 1: all the way? But you know, the West coast traveling
Speaker 1: east is certainly a real thing. So that's interesting. Okay,
Speaker 1: we'll see if this line moves, but in the end
Speaker 1: you like it at Dolphins getting sixteen and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm a little less excited about it, but I do
Speaker 1: lean that way. So that's all a fair point. Let's
Speaker 1: move on to our next game, Raiders at the Colts.
Speaker 1: The Colts here are laying six and a half and
Speaker 1: the over under is at forty four and a half.
Speaker 1: Colts coming off a big win. They look good. They
Speaker 1: did lose t Y Hilton. I haven't heard about his
Speaker 1: availability yet for next week. It didn't sound particularly great
Speaker 1: when I heard about it, but they have obviously looked
Speaker 1: very strong. They haven't missed Andrew Luck that much. To
Speaker 1: Kobe Brissette, looks very comfortable. They have a strong defense,
Speaker 1: They've got a strong offensive line, and the Raiders, after
Speaker 1: looking great against the Broncos, have laid up two duds,
Speaker 1: admittedly against tough teams and the Vikings and the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: What do you think here? Colts lank six and a
Speaker 1: half at home in the over under at forty four
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 2: The Colts the exact opposite of the Chargers. We kind
Speaker 2: of loved them as a collective unit coming into the season,
Speaker 2: and our love did not fade with the Andrew Luck
Speaker 2: retirement because we believe in Frank Reich, we believe in
Speaker 2: the way this team constructed and is constructed, and moreover,
Speaker 2: we believe in this Colts offensive line, which is just
Speaker 2: moving mountains. And credit to Marlon Mack. Marlon Mack last
Speaker 2: year kind of got what it was blocked for him
Speaker 2: and was good for it. And he's added some tools
Speaker 2: to his game which have taken it to the next
Speaker 2: level where he's obviously getting what's blocked for him and
Speaker 2: then some This game's interesting because look Ahead was six.
Speaker 2: You said it was six and a half, but it
Speaker 2: opened at seven in some places, and it was sharply
Speaker 2: pounded back to six and a half despite seventy five
Speaker 2: percent of the public being on Indy. So that's a
Speaker 2: very quick reverse line move off of a key number,
Speaker 2: which makes me very very queasy knee jerk. I want
Speaker 2: to say that the Colts might be the right side
Speaker 2: in this game, but it's getting to the point where
Speaker 2: can we trust Jacoby Prissett to cover large lines to
Speaker 2: win the game? Sure, I think the Colts are a
Speaker 2: great teaser candidate. It stinks that they're it's funny as
Speaker 2: a tease. It stinks that they're below seven, so you
Speaker 2: don't get the true wong teas. We're still getting them
Speaker 2: down to a half point, which is still great value.
Speaker 2: And the problem is is that Persett's not one to
Speaker 2: throw the ball downfield and really extend the lead. We
Speaker 2: saw that yesterday that got out to a massive lead
Speaker 2: against the Falcons and really didn't put them away. Obviously,
Speaker 2: the Falcons have a great offense. Matt Ryan when he's
Speaker 2: on is fantastic. Julio Jones is out of this world.
Speaker 2: So I think the Colts should have won more comfortably yesterday,
Speaker 2: but left the door wide open and that could ultimately
Speaker 2: bite them in the ass here when they're laying six
Speaker 2: and a half against the Raiders.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't. I kind of like you. I
Speaker 1: don't have a great feel for the spread. I mean,
Speaker 1: six and a half I kind of heavy, right, it
Speaker 1: feels heavy, it's heavy. I agree with you really. For me,
Speaker 1: it sticks out a little bit at the over under
Speaker 1: at forty four and a half. I feel like I
Speaker 1: like the over they're coming in. I feel like the
Speaker 1: Colts can score pretty much at will early on against
Speaker 1: the Raiders. I feel like they do take their foot
Speaker 1: off the gas a little bit, and like you said,
Speaker 1: Kobe Brissett doesn't just keep piling on the points. But
Speaker 1: I do think they get a little lackadays ago here
Speaker 1: on defense. As the games go on, I see them
Speaker 1: being probably a similar script to what happened against the Falcons.
Speaker 1: I see them probably jumping out to a lead, taking
Speaker 1: their foot off the gas a little bit. They just
Speaker 1: lock lost Malie Cooker as well, so their defense takes
Speaker 1: a little bit of a hit and the Raiders the
Speaker 1: offense isn't terrible by any means. I mean, Josh Jacobs
Speaker 1: certainly can can move the ball. He's not involved in
Speaker 1: the passing game yet. Darren Waller is a player for sure,
Speaker 1: and Tyrell Williams has been getting it done so even
Speaker 1: without Brown, I think they can put up points. So
Speaker 1: for me, the spread, it makes me a little worried.
Speaker 1: I think, certainly the Coults are gonna win, but whether
Speaker 1: or not they can cover nearly a touchdown spread makes
Speaker 1: me a little nervous. But I do like as at
Speaker 1: this point at forty four and a half, I like
Speaker 1: the over because I think both teams can put up
Speaker 1: points here.
Speaker 2: I like that. I like this just real quick. I
Speaker 2: like this Raiders' offense on the turf, especially because they
Speaker 2: do have a ton of speed. Darren Waller is not
Speaker 2: your traditional tight end. He's more of a massive wide receiver.
Speaker 2: He can get down the scene than you got Tyre
Speaker 2: Williams that you mentioned, and then JJ Nelson he's like
Speaker 2: a world class sprinter on the outside. So yeah, the
Speaker 2: over is definitely in play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they put up you know, they put up
Speaker 1: some points against the Vikings. A lot of it was
Speaker 1: garbage time, but I could see the same thing happening here.
Speaker 1: So for me, the one that sticks out here is
Speaker 1: more of the over at forty four and a half.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Titans at the Falcons. The
Speaker 1: Falcons here are laying four and a half the over
Speaker 1: unders at forty six. Falcons dealing with a huge injury
Speaker 1: with the loss of Can O'Neil but otherwise everybody's relatively healthy.
Speaker 1: How you feeling about this? Falcons laying four and a
Speaker 1: half at home over under forty six to the Titans.
Speaker 2: Poor Kean O'Neil man lose this out on last year
Speaker 2: and then he knows as soon as he hits the
Speaker 2: turf he got an extend.
Speaker 1: He got penalized for taking off his helmet.
Speaker 2: That fifteen yard penalty for just for going on ir
Speaker 2: that was his penalty. Yeah, terrible, It's just insanity. I
Speaker 2: don't I'm a bit of a fence there in this game.
Speaker 2: Dead number, all these dead numbers really makes me hard
Speaker 2: to muster an opinion. Yep, on these games. It's a
Speaker 2: lot easier when we're working closer to key numbers. I
Speaker 2: feel like I can make a better gauge of it
Speaker 2: public same way we're seeing fifty four percent on the Falcons.
Speaker 2: My gut tells me this is one of the lowest
Speaker 2: bet games on the board because it's hard to have
Speaker 2: an opinion on two one and two teams that are disappointing.
Speaker 2: Titans get up Week one, they crush the Browns on
Speaker 2: the road, Falcons in prime time they get away with
Speaker 2: that win against the Eagles, and then last week both
Speaker 2: these teams just lay major duds the Titans in primetime
Speaker 2: on Thursday Night Football. So I don't have much of
Speaker 2: an opinion here. I think I slightly lean towards the
Speaker 2: Falcons just because of what their offense can do, and
Speaker 2: if there's a scenario where the Titans get into a
Speaker 2: negative game script, I have no clue how Marcus Mariota
Speaker 2: and the offense move the ball and compete. So just
Speaker 2: from that factor alone, I think I shade Falcons by
Speaker 2: the slimmest of march.
Speaker 1: I can tell you how they'll compete. They'll have like
Speaker 1: seven minute drives, going really really slow and having no
Speaker 1: urgency whatsoever. Honestly, take exactly what you said, add the
Speaker 1: word ditto, and now you have my analysis. This is
Speaker 1: not a game. I completely agree. I don't think anybody's
Speaker 1: going to really be in on this game. I do
Speaker 1: not have a strong feeling about it. I'm a little
Speaker 1: worried that the Titans get the extra rest, you know that.
Speaker 1: Ordinarily I think I might lean a little bit towards
Speaker 1: the Falcons, but with the extra rest, it just makes
Speaker 1: it something where I want to stay away and I
Speaker 1: just don't like it. I don't think it's gonna move
Speaker 1: because I don't think it's gonna be bet whatsoever. So
Speaker 1: if you have a feeling on this game, do whatever
Speaker 1: you want on this one. It's a stay away for
Speaker 1: me over both the over under and the spread. So
Speaker 1: I'm in complete agreement with you on that one. Redskins
Speaker 1: at Giants, here's a key number for you. Giants are
Speaker 1: laying three. It could change depending on what happens. We're
Speaker 1: recording this just as the start of the Bears Redskins game,
Speaker 1: so it could change depending on what happens in the game,
Speaker 1: if there's a big injury or something. But as of
Speaker 1: right now, Redskins at the Giants, the Giants are laying
Speaker 1: three and the over under is at forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half yeah.
Speaker 2: Betting pros, you guys are showing plus three minus one fifteen,
Speaker 2: So it looks like there's some action on the Washington
Speaker 2: professional football team. Honestly, I'm surprised that there wasn't more
Speaker 2: of an overreaction to Danny Dimes coming in yesterday and
Speaker 2: playing savior with two rushing touchdowns in that eighteen point
Speaker 2: comeback against the Buccaneers. I thought that this might be
Speaker 2: a half point heavy in the Giants direction, but I
Speaker 2: guess books are just afraid of sharp money piling in
Speaker 2: getting that free half point. This seems like a fair line. Honestly,
Speaker 2: I have to see what Washington does tonight against at
Speaker 2: home in primetime, against an offense that I personally dislike
Speaker 2: in the Bears, and it's not so much about the philosophy.
Speaker 2: I think Matt Nagy can be a great coach and
Speaker 2: great coordinator in this league, great offensive play caller, but
Speaker 2: they're just so limited in what Trubisky can do. So
Speaker 2: I think there's an opportunity tonight for Washington to look
Speaker 2: like a professional football team perhaps, and I think that
Speaker 2: we might see tonight's result affect this line, like if
Speaker 2: the Bears go in and destroy the Washington Professional football team.
Speaker 2: I think we could see this line climb because there's
Speaker 2: so much public sentiment right now for Danny Dimes. So
Speaker 2: if you're liking the dog here, I would wait. I
Speaker 2: don't think it's going to move in the other direction.
Speaker 1: So, no, the public is going to hammer the Giants
Speaker 1: on this. They're going to unless the Redskins come out
Speaker 1: and look amazing against the Bears, they're gonna I mean,
Speaker 1: they're gonna hammer it. But the books know that, right,
Speaker 1: And so the fact that I agree with you completely,
Speaker 1: the fact that it was set at three and it
Speaker 1: didn't you know that struck me, as man, You're gonna
Speaker 1: get so much public money on the Giants, which makes
Speaker 1: me think that that's what they want, and that's sort
Speaker 1: of where it's gonna be.
Speaker 2: I agree.
Speaker 1: If you like the Redskins in this game, you can wait.
Speaker 1: It's not dropping below three. I can't imagine that. And
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a bit heavily on the Giants,
Speaker 1: given what they were able to do yesterday, given how
Speaker 1: much better their offense looked, even without Saquon Barkley. Of course,
Speaker 1: he's out for anywhere from four to maybe eight weeks,
Speaker 1: so you know, Wayne Gollman is not going to scare
Speaker 1: anybody there, but I don't really think it matters. It's
Speaker 1: all about Jones. So I think that the Giants, even
Speaker 1: with the Barkley injury, are still going to get hammered here.
Speaker 1: And if you like the Redskins, you can probably wait
Speaker 1: it out. Bucks at Rams, Rams laying nine and a
Speaker 1: half over under at fifty one and a half, what
Speaker 1: are your thoughts there?
Speaker 2: Last week I put my SpongeBob SquarePants and told everybody
Speaker 2: on the pod that I don't care if the Rams
Speaker 2: are getting ninety percent of the tickets. I really like
Speaker 2: the spot against the Browns, and this line is heavy,
Speaker 2: but it's not off the look ahead A lot look
Speaker 2: ahead was nine, so we're seeing a half point move here,
Speaker 2: which to me is quite surprising. The Buccaneers embarrassed at home,
Speaker 2: Danny Dimes comes in destroys them, They miss a last
Speaker 2: second kick that Bruce Arians purposefully made longer by getting
Speaker 2: a delay of game penalty, and then prime time supposed
Speaker 2: I mean, he could just be saying that to protect
Speaker 2: this guy, and then we see the Rams in primetime.
Speaker 2: I mean, it wasn't pretty, but they went out and
Speaker 2: they took care of business on the road as massive
Speaker 2: public road favorites, so they cashed. I mean the ticket.
Speaker 2: The line to cash tickets last night in Vegas must
Speaker 2: have been one hundred yards long, and they don't move
Speaker 2: the line at all, which is a bit weird to me.
Speaker 2: I thought that this was going to be double digits,
Speaker 2: and dare I say, I think there is a modicum
Speaker 2: of value in laying the points with the Rams here.
Speaker 2: I think Jameis Winston is just that bad and the
Speaker 2: backbreaker turnover is always in his pocket at any moment
Speaker 2: in these games.
Speaker 1: Absolutely. I mean, golf plays much better at home. It's
Speaker 1: pretty clear with that. And they still have a strong defense.
Speaker 1: I don't know this line feels right to me. I
Speaker 1: think keeping it between nine and ten is around where
Speaker 1: you want to be. Because the Bucks, I guess, I
Speaker 1: don't know what to necessarily make of their defense, because
Speaker 1: they looked really strong against the Panthers, and not just
Speaker 1: because Newton couldn't throw the ball at all.
Speaker 2: They look strong.
Speaker 1: They've added some pieces there, Todd Bowles was doing some work,
Speaker 1: but they looked terrible. They couldn't stop Daniel Jones even
Speaker 1: without Saquon Barkley, So I don't really know what to
Speaker 1: do with this. For me, I don't really see great
Speaker 1: value in this line. I don't think it's going to move.
Speaker 1: I think it's going to either be nine or nine
Speaker 1: and a half. So if it's at nine and a
Speaker 1: half now and you like the Bucks, I would probably
Speaker 1: get now. I can't see it hitting the key number
Speaker 1: of ten or anything like that. But it's a line
Speaker 1: that I don't really have a good feel for. Certainly
Speaker 1: the Rams. You know, I expect them to win, but
Speaker 1: nine and a half it's a big number, and they
Speaker 1: haven't really been just just blowing everybody out. They won
Speaker 1: the Saints game big, but that was much more on
Speaker 1: the fact that Teddy Bridgewater came in and they couldn't
Speaker 1: really do anything offensively. So for me, nine and a
Speaker 1: half it's about right. It's a game that I don't
Speaker 1: have a great feel for. You see a little value
Speaker 1: saying in the Rams just.
Speaker 2: The tiniest fit. What I'm surprised is, and this is
Speaker 2: more of a philosophical question, is that books, especially now
Speaker 2: that there's more regulated mobile betting internet betting in the
Speaker 2: United States, is one things books do is they limit
Speaker 2: the amounts that sharps can bet to limit their liability.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: And my question is how high does this RAMS number
Speaker 2: have to be and any of these numbers on the
Speaker 2: board for the public to just stop piling, Like, at
Speaker 2: what number is your regular Joe that fires up his
Speaker 2: app on Sunday morning fifteen minutes before kickoff trying to
Speaker 2: rush bets in. At what number? Does he look at
Speaker 2: the RAMS and say, oh, I'm not going to bet that,
Speaker 2: or even worse, I'm going to bet the other stuff.
Speaker 1: Do you think there is a number that gets a
Speaker 1: lot of public action here on the RAMS?
Speaker 2: I think so, yeah. I think I think the Rams
Speaker 2: are just going to the public's just going to see
Speaker 2: a team that played really good and a Buccaneers team
Speaker 2: that got embarrassed by Danny Dimes, and the Rams are gonna, yeah,
Speaker 2: They're going to receive sixty seventy percent of the public bets.
Speaker 1: Interesting. Okay, see, I'm not as convinced. You might be
Speaker 1: right for sure, But in the end, although the Bucks
Speaker 1: were embarrassed, they should have won that game. And although
Speaker 1: you know, they put up a ton of points and
Speaker 1: Mike Evans went nuts and Winston looked much better and
Speaker 1: the Rams. Although they won, they were decent play calling
Speaker 1: away from going to overtime in that game against the
Speaker 1: Browns team that has not looked good, as we discussed,
Speaker 1: and that really all the money was on the Rams.
Speaker 1: I don't think people are coming out of gaming like, yeah, Glad,
Speaker 1: I bet on the Rams. I felt so comfortable that
Speaker 1: entire game, even though every single person did so for me,
Speaker 1: I'll be interested. I'm going to check back in this
Speaker 1: on the Thursday show to see how the public and
Speaker 1: how the sharps really have been coming in. But I
Speaker 1: would expect it to be between fifty and sixty percent,
Speaker 1: probably leaning slightly on the Rams, but it's an interesting question,
Speaker 1: so I will certainly check in on that. Let's move
Speaker 1: on to the Seahawks at the Cardinals. The Seahawks are
Speaker 1: laying four and a half. I believe the look aheadline
Speaker 1: might have been three, so it's moved a little bit
Speaker 1: and the over under at forty seven. How you feel
Speaker 1: in there?
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're back to normal. And the Cardinals, right, they're
Speaker 2: really bad football team that should be home dogs. Last week,
Speaker 2: it was just so strange to see the overreaction to
Speaker 2: the Cam Newton injury. Cardinals minus three at home just
Speaker 2: didn't make very much sense whatsoever, And of course they
Speaker 2: lose outright to Kyle Allen and the Panthers. That being said,
Speaker 2: this is where I'm more comfortable taking the Cardinals. And
Speaker 2: what's interesting about the Seahawks this season is that they're
Speaker 2: off to a very slow start this year and it's
Speaker 2: due mostly to their secondary not playing up to par.
Speaker 2: This week was interesting obviously with the defensive touchdowns scored
Speaker 2: by the Saints, but there have been some plays in
Speaker 2: the secondary. You go all the way back to Week
Speaker 2: one where the Bengals, I mean, Andy Dalton just walks
Speaker 2: into centry Lincoln is just slinging the ball down the field,
Speaker 2: and that's a Bengals offense that coming out of that game,
Speaker 2: I thought I had to make some adjustments. I thought
Speaker 2: Zach Taylor, you know, was the real member of that
Speaker 2: Sean McVay coaching tree. I thought the Bengals were gonna
Speaker 2: come out and move the rock and they have not
Speaker 2: been able to do anything since then. And if the
Speaker 2: Seahawks have this poor of a secondary, being four and
Speaker 2: a half point favorites on the road against a team
Speaker 2: like the Cardinals that are going to go out and
Speaker 2: throw forty or fifty times. It's going to make this
Speaker 2: game a bit more competitive. This last week is interesting, Kyler.
Speaker 2: For forty three attempts to only have one hundred and
Speaker 2: seventy nine yards four yards in an attempt is pretty horrid,
Speaker 2: to say the least. But I think in the long run,
Speaker 2: the more they press the edges, the more they throw
Speaker 2: with that type of frequency. I mean, obviously just the
Speaker 2: more points they're going to score. And I just think
Speaker 2: four and a half is way too much for the
Speaker 2: Hawks to be laying in the spot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it strikes me as high, although I'm not exactly
Speaker 1: sure I'd feel comfortable necessarily going in on the Cardinals here.
Speaker 1: I don't know which way this is going to move
Speaker 1: from now. As I said, it's moved a bit since
Speaker 1: it opened. I mean, the Seahawks, you're right, and they've
Speaker 1: been playing a ton of base defense. They basically they
Speaker 1: know their secondary is sort of their weakness, and they're
Speaker 1: just basically like, we're selling out to stop the run.
Speaker 1: We're leaving all our linebackers out there, and we'll see
Speaker 1: what you can do, and if you can beat us
Speaker 1: with the pass, go ahead. And they have been their
Speaker 1: defense is not nearly as strong as it once was.
Speaker 1: But they're coming off a kind of an embarrassing loss here,
Speaker 1: and they're gonna be mad, and they're coming in against
Speaker 1: a Cardinals team that again has no secondary whatsoever. They're
Speaker 1: missing both their top two cornerbacks. And I think Murray
Speaker 1: has followed the same script where he comes out and
Speaker 1: he looks really good because it's all been scripted for him,
Speaker 1: and once you get past the first fifteen or sixteen
Speaker 1: or seventeen plays that have been scripted for him, he
Speaker 1: just kind of loses it and he just is running
Speaker 1: around as he can be. The four and a half
Speaker 1: makes me a little nervous. I agree with you. It's
Speaker 1: not a game that I have a good feel for.
Speaker 1: Sounds like you see a little bit of value right
Speaker 1: now in the Cardinals. For me, it's not something where
Speaker 1: I want to get close to. And I think this
Speaker 1: line could move. I think the public's going to come
Speaker 1: in a little heavier on the Seahawks. I think that
Speaker 1: they probably like them, and they're going to buy the hole.
Speaker 1: They're going to be mad narrative, and the Cardinals look terrible.
Speaker 1: So my guess is if it moves at all, it's
Speaker 1: going to move to five, but I think four and
Speaker 1: a half is around where you're going to be sitting,
Speaker 1: and I don't have a great feel for it based
Speaker 1: on how these two teams have played so far.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm seeing eighty three percent on the Hawks. The
Speaker 2: Betting Pros dash says minus one fifteen minus one eleven
Speaker 2: on the Hawks, So it's definitely leaning in that direction.
Speaker 2: So if you like me like the Cardinals, then yeah,
Speaker 2: perhaps waiting is the right tactic, even though, like we
Speaker 2: said earlier, four and a half to five dead numbers.
Speaker 2: But still those half point values can really help out
Speaker 2: in the long rue. Yep. Absolutely.
Speaker 1: Now, before we finish up with our last few games,
Speaker 1: I wanted to remind everyone about our septem contest to
Speaker 1: be entered. All you need to do is leave a
Speaker 1: review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send
Speaker 1: a screenshot of your review to contest at bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 1: We're giving away and autographed Alvin Kamara helmet. It takes
Speaker 1: two seconds, you support the show, and you've got a
Speaker 1: great chance to win an autographed helmet, so don't waste time.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the vikings that the Bears.
Speaker 1: The Bears here are laying two and a half and
Speaker 1: the over under is at a minuscule thirty nine. The
Speaker 1: Bears are playing right now. Obviously could change, but initial
Speaker 1: thoughts on that you talked about.
Speaker 2: Jared Goff just now, and one of the philosophies that
Speaker 2: we lean on at Gridiron Gamble is that bad quarterbacks
Speaker 2: really show home road splits, and Kirk Cousins objectively bad quarterback.
Speaker 2: We've seen two weeks where the Vikings get out into
Speaker 2: great positive script at home in the Dome, they get
Speaker 2: the defense going, and they get to neuter Kirk Cousins
Speaker 2: as much as possible. He had nine pass attempts at
Speaker 2: that first game, even yesterday twenty one attempts. And this
Speaker 2: is the type of football that the Minnesota Vikings want
Speaker 2: to play. They want to get out, get the lead,
Speaker 2: and run the football well. At two and a half
Speaker 2: and maybe even three. If the Bears win convincingly tonight,
Speaker 2: that means this game is probably going to be more neutral,
Speaker 2: which means Kirk Cousins is probably gonna have to throw
Speaker 2: the ball more frequently, and on the road at Chicago,
Speaker 2: that's not a good equation for Minnesota. So short of
Speaker 2: a field goal. I definitely have to lean for the
Speaker 2: Bears here, and unfortunately I don't know how long we're
Speaker 2: gonna get it short of this number. But at this
Speaker 2: time I like the minus two and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. I don't love it. I
Speaker 1: don't love it just because Man Trubisky has been awful.
Speaker 1: Just watching him. Hopefully he shows something tonight while we're recording,
Speaker 1: but he has just been terrible. He looks like he's regressed.
Speaker 1: But that defense, I agree. I mean, the Vikings have
Speaker 1: a pretty simple formula. They want to run it and
Speaker 1: they've got a one full zone blocking scheme. They've got
Speaker 1: one of the best running backs in football. It's been
Speaker 1: highly successful. They want to pick their spots to throw it.
Speaker 1: I think ideally they want cousins at about twenty pass attempts,
Speaker 1: but you can see this being defensive.
Speaker 2: Shrugt.
Speaker 1: Look the over under at thirty nine. I'm not really sure,
Speaker 1: you know, I kind of lean the under at this point.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'd have to take a closer look a
Speaker 1: little bit and see how the Bears look tonight, but
Speaker 1: I think it is going to be kind of a
Speaker 1: close game. But I would expect in the end the
Speaker 1: Bears to win it because they're home, and since it's
Speaker 1: under the key number of three, I two would lean Bears,
Speaker 1: but I'm not sure I feel overly strongly about just
Speaker 1: because I need to see it. Hopefully, when I go
Speaker 1: back and watch Monday night's game, Trubisky looks better, but
Speaker 1: he's just looked so terrible that it's tough to see
Speaker 1: them putting up points as well. But I do see
Speaker 1: a close game here, low scoring and probably the Bears
Speaker 1: eating out, which is why would lean the Bears to it,
Speaker 1: Because once it's below three, it doesn't really matter all
Speaker 1: that much in the end, So I too, like you,
Speaker 1: lean Bears two and a half. Jaguars at Broncos. Bronco's
Speaker 1: here laying three and the over under is at thirty
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I don't think this has moved
Speaker 1: since I look aheadline unless I missed it. So what
Speaker 1: are your thoughts?
Speaker 2: There another game where I thought the market was going
Speaker 2: to address the love affair for a new quarterback. I
Speaker 2: don't know how many group text im in where there's
Speaker 2: pictures of Gardner Minshew in Jeort's Gardner Minshew wearing some
Speaker 2: crazy Washington state shirt, the mustache, the headband, and the
Speaker 2: public is showing this in their betting batterns. Currently seventy
Speaker 2: four percent of the bets are on the Jags plus
Speaker 2: three at Mile High. I really thought that they were
Speaker 2: going to open this up at minus two and a
Speaker 2: half and not give the public that full three. But
Speaker 2: despite all of that public action, Broncos minus three is
Speaker 2: showing minus one fifteen right now in the betting pros portal.
Speaker 2: I think they're going to be the right side. Look,
Speaker 2: I don't love Joe Flacco. I think this offense is
Speaker 2: about as bad as you can get. But I do
Speaker 2: love this Broncos defense. And while the first three weeks
Speaker 2: have not been great for Chub and Miller, their names
Speaker 2: have not been called. I have to believe that regression
Speaker 2: is Regression is coming for a Vic Fangiou defense, and
Speaker 2: one of the best medicines that could be coming in
Speaker 2: to remedy that is a backup quarterback on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Speaker 2: So I think the Broncos minus three is the right
Speaker 2: side here. I'm not in love with it, but I
Speaker 2: definitely think that this line could maybe be three and
Speaker 2: a half. It's just a tough place to play, and
Speaker 2: I still believe in fanjo and how organized this defense
Speaker 2: can be.
Speaker 1: I completely agree that I was shocked that it didn't
Speaker 1: open below three, because again, yeah, the public's is gonna
Speaker 1: hammer the Jaguars right now. Gardner Minshew is basically a
Speaker 1: walking meme and the public loves it. Just to look
Speaker 1: at him, he's been exciting. I kind of like what
Speaker 1: I see from him. Generally. I agree that I like
Speaker 1: the Broncos side of this right now. It makes me
Speaker 1: a little nervous that the Jaguars get the minibi, you know,
Speaker 1: because they played on Thursday. The extra rest, the extra
Speaker 1: time to game plan. For me, really, even though it
Speaker 1: is minuscule, it might be the lowest over under that
Speaker 1: we've seen all year at thirty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: I still like the under on this one for basically
Speaker 1: all the reasons that you say. The Jaguars defense looked
Speaker 1: much better against the Titans. That's not saying all that
Speaker 1: much against the Marcus Mariota led offense, but they did
Speaker 1: look good. Jalen Ramsey apparently called the sick to practice today,
Speaker 1: so I don't know whether or not there's something If
Speaker 1: he really has the flu, that's fine. Hopefully he'll be fine.
Speaker 1: If he's sort of doing something with his trades and
Speaker 1: he's out of there, then that would be problematic. But
Speaker 1: their defense looked really good. The Broncos defense looks fine passball.
Speaker 1: They've had some tough matchups. I think at home they're
Speaker 1: going to be good. So even at the minuscule number
Speaker 1: of thirty seven and a half, I like the under
Speaker 1: as an initial read, and I agree if I'm forced
Speaker 1: to pick a side here, I don't love it like you,
Speaker 1: but I would I would lean towards the Broncos minus three.
Speaker 1: This next one is a little surprising to me. This
Speaker 1: is the Cowboys at the Saints right now. The Cowboys
Speaker 1: on ours are laying two and a half, and I
Speaker 1: think the look aheadline three. So I am shocked by
Speaker 1: that over under was forty five and a half. I
Speaker 1: expected the line because the Cowboys are such a public
Speaker 1: team and they wound up beating the Dolphins handily in
Speaker 1: the end, that the spread would move the other directions.
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised to drop to two and a half.
Speaker 1: What's your thoughts on.
Speaker 2: This interesting I think I was very proud of how
Speaker 2: the market reacted to the Breeze injury last week. In
Speaker 2: my initial capping, I thought the Hawks were going to
Speaker 2: be pretty large favorites in that game. But just like
Speaker 2: when the Colts lost luck, I believe their Week one
Speaker 2: game against the Chargers, the line only moved three points.
Speaker 2: We saw the same move last week when Breeze went down,
Speaker 2: which traditionally, I feel like historically and even in recent history,
Speaker 2: we see quarterbacks go out. I mean even with the
Speaker 2: Steelers we saw a massive move from Big Ben to Rudolph.
Speaker 2: This line only moved three points when Breeze went out.
Speaker 2: And the Saints, like I said, they scored two defensive touchdowns,
Speaker 2: but they kind of showed out Teddy Bridgewater looked competent.
Speaker 2: You being a Jets fan, you know, we watched every
Speaker 2: snap last year of Teddy two gloves in the Green
Speaker 2: and white, and he looked like a very competent player.
Speaker 2: I was a bit sad to see him go to
Speaker 2: New Orleans. So we got Luke falk Man, I mean
Speaker 2: we did, We did Getawazi States on Luke falk I
Speaker 2: was kind of interested that this line didn't move a
Speaker 2: little more aggressively in the Saints direction, because still while
Speaker 2: the Cowboys are a public team. The Saints are just
Speaker 2: as public as a side, and they've they've printed for
Speaker 2: the public over these these I mean this decade for
Speaker 2: the most part with Sean Payton. So yeah, I thought
Speaker 2: this game would be closer, a little closer to pick.
Speaker 2: But I understand why given up the look aheadline, like
Speaker 2: you said, was three. I understand why the line didn't
Speaker 2: move more towards the equal number. But I'd like to
Speaker 2: hear you must love the Cowboys than if you're getting
Speaker 2: than if you're giving less than a few.
Speaker 1: I don't love the Cowboys necessarily. I lean towards the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: I really do, But in the end, I think I
Speaker 1: was just more surprised. It's not necessarily what I think
Speaker 1: it should be. I just think when you're looking at
Speaker 1: how it's going to be, bet I would have expected.
Speaker 1: Now that you know they're in New Orleans, that is
Speaker 1: a very, very difficult place to play. The Cowboys are
Speaker 1: still down Michael Gallup, but they don't really need that
Speaker 1: right now. They're clicking on all cylinders. Kellen Moore led
Speaker 1: offense is doing great, and look, you give Sean Payton
Speaker 1: a week to prepare for anybody, and that's why I
Speaker 1: picked the Saints with the four and a half against
Speaker 1: the Seahawks on last Thursday. But at this point, I
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't have a strong lean on it.
Speaker 1: I'm just I'm very surprised that money isn't coming in
Speaker 1: heavily on the Cowboys. I think the number of about
Speaker 1: three is about right. I don't know if I take
Speaker 1: it necessarily. Again, I lean Cowboys, but in New Orleans
Speaker 1: it's tough, and forty five and a half seems like
Speaker 1: the right thing for me. But for right now, I
Speaker 1: lean Cowboys. But you know, really, for me, it's much
Speaker 1: more about what I expected to see the number at,
Speaker 1: and I expected to see the number closer to like four.
Speaker 1: So we'll see where it ends up. But in the end,
Speaker 1: it's probably going to be right around three. And right
Speaker 1: now again it's at two and a half and it's
Speaker 1: moved down from three. Let's get to our last game here,
Speaker 1: Bengals at the Steelers. Steelers laying four, the over under
Speaker 1: is at forty three and a half. How do you
Speaker 1: feel about that?
Speaker 2: The battle of zero to three teams? You're welcome, espn
Speaker 2: uh Man Mason Rudolph stunk yesterday and as someone who
Speaker 2: had the Steelers on their Super Contest card. I wanted
Speaker 2: to feel good about that game, and I'm obviously happy
Speaker 2: that we did get the cover. But Steelers offense was
Speaker 2: about as bad as it gets. And credit to the
Speaker 2: Niners defense. They put a lot of both free agency
Speaker 2: and draft capital into their defensive line and they're starting
Speaker 2: to get after it, especially against a very good front
Speaker 2: five from the Steelers. But I was very unimpressed from
Speaker 2: what I saw about Mason Rudolph and perhaps the quote
Speaker 2: unquote overreaction that I noted about Big Ben might have
Speaker 2: been warranted, which again is something that Rufus pointed out
Speaker 2: last week. Sixty percent on the Steelers. The Bengals, man,
Speaker 2: are they a bad team, but but they showed that
Speaker 2: they're competitive. They could have easily laid down against the
Speaker 2: Bills this week. The Bills were kind of destroying them
Speaker 2: in the trenches despite the score being low, and the
Speaker 2: Bengals found a way to claw back, fight back into
Speaker 2: this game. And I don't know, I don't think we
Speaker 2: should just be giving Mason Rudolph a point against another
Speaker 2: NFL team at this time. So me personally, I think
Speaker 2: the four is a little bit heavy and I think
Speaker 2: I have to lean Bengals.
Speaker 1: In this agree. I lean towards the Bengals at this point.
Speaker 1: If it stays at four, I could see it being
Speaker 1: one of my super contests. And I looked into this
Speaker 1: because the Bengals getting six from the Bills was one
Speaker 1: of my super contest picks from this past week, and
Speaker 1: I looked into it before. I can't remember what the
Speaker 1: exact number was, but the Bengals have been very solid
Speaker 1: against the spread over the last several years. I can't
Speaker 1: remember exactly what the number was, but they generally have
Speaker 1: played well on the road. I don't know why necessarily
Speaker 1: getting away from Cincinnati, but they are usually good for
Speaker 1: a cover and I agree. I mean, Mason Rudolf, you
Speaker 1: pointed out the forty nine ers have a surprisingly solid defense,
Speaker 1: so I want to give them some credit here. But
Speaker 1: I was very disappointed watching that effort. And again one
Speaker 1: of the touchdowns was just a long catch and run
Speaker 1: that Juju Smith Schuster broke off, so he was not
Speaker 1: in any way impressed in that game. I see this
Speaker 1: as being a three point game either way, so it's
Speaker 1: come down. So with that in mind, I like the Bengals.
Speaker 1: It is a divisional game. You never know what's going
Speaker 1: to happen. Those are always a little scary to bet.
Speaker 1: But the forty three and a half that strikes me
Speaker 1: is about right. But I agree with you that I
Speaker 1: leaned toward the Bengals here because I expect this to
Speaker 1: be a game that's going to be decided by three points,
Speaker 1: so I will gladly take the four, so I don't
Speaker 1: expect it to move again. I think you mentioned that
Speaker 1: the public is a little bit shade on the side
Speaker 1: of the Steelers at this point. I think you said
Speaker 1: sixty percent, and I would expect that to continue, So
Speaker 1: I think if you like the Bengals, there's no rush
Speaker 1: on it. Maybe it gets to four and a half,
Speaker 1: but in the end I agree that that's that's where
Speaker 1: i'd probably lean like you.
Speaker 2: I actually think we should be pulling the trigger now
Speaker 2: on the Vocals. It's minus one seventeen, and I think
Speaker 2: the sharp money will be on Cincinnati, so I do
Speaker 2: think we could see a slight reverse line move off
Speaker 2: of that four to three and a half, So all right,
Speaker 2: it might be some value in grab.
Speaker 1: All right, you heard it. Then with Rich we both
Speaker 1: like that game, so if you like it, go ahead
Speaker 1: and move now. Well, that is going to do it
Speaker 1: for today's show. Buddy, it was great having you on.
Speaker 1: I hope we can do it again during the season. Yeah,
Speaker 1: pleasure would love to great. Thanks again to the sponsor
Speaker 1: of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet
Speaker 1: MGM Sports app and use the promo code Harris to
Speaker 1: get your risk free first wager of up to five
Speaker 1: hundred dollars. Don't forget to rate and review the podcast
Speaker 1: and send a screenshot of that review to contest at
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com for your chance to win a signed
Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara helmet. We'll be back later this week giving
Speaker 1: some of our best bets for Week four and look
Speaker 1: to keep building on our winning street. I'll talk to
Speaker 1: you then.