WEBVTT - NFL Week 4 Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 12) 0:00:08.440 --> 0:00:11.000 Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:14.240 the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:16.560 I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:19.079 on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It is time for 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:21.360 our early look at next week's lines, and there are 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:24.040 some pretty interesting ones out for week four. With me 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:26.400 to break it all down is Rich Ryan, host of 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:29.320 the Gridiron Gamble podcast. You can find Rich on Twitter 0:00:29.400 --> 0:00:30.600 at rich t Ryan. 0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:30.880 Rich. 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:31.400 How's it going? 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:34.920 It is going quite well. It's still nice and warm 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:39.639 out here in beautiful southern California. I like you are now. 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:41.680 I used to be an East Coaster and I will 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:45.080 never find myself back on the East Coast barring something incredible, 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:48.560 because I can't get away from the sunshine and warmth. 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:50.559 Well, I'm not just the East Coast, to be clear. 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:53.360 I'm like Northeast Coast, so usually we're covered in snow, 0:00:53.400 --> 0:00:56.480 but today was ninety so I'm basically right where you are. Yeah, 0:00:56.520 --> 0:00:57.160 it's the best. 0:00:57.440 --> 0:00:57.720 Now. 0:00:57.880 --> 0:01:00.280 I'm actually really glad that you're on the show because 0:01:00.320 --> 0:01:01.960 I didn't know this, but we were talking right before 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:04.880 we recorded. Like me, you are also a Jets fan, 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:08.199 so we can basically commiserate together, except for the fact 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:10.039 that the Jets are on a bye this week, so 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:12.720 we do not have to work out now. Theoretically, if 0:01:12.720 --> 0:01:14.560 the forty nine Ers were facing the Jets on a 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:17.400 neutral field, I don't know, eight and a half maybe depends, 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:19.119 I guess on if Darnold was going to play. 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:20.280 But I feel like. 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:21.800 Whatever it would be, you would have to hammer home 0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:24.160 the forty nine Ers no matter what, because if you've 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:27.160 watched the Jets, especially with Luke Falk, you are not 0:01:27.240 --> 0:01:30.080 optimistic right now on their season. But in the meantime, 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:31.960 Rich and I are going to go game by game 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:33.640 here for Week four, and we're going to start with 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:36.240 the Thursday night game between the Packers and the Eagles, 0:01:36.400 --> 0:01:38.120 and we'll end with the Monday night game between the 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:41.200 Bengals and the Steelers. And again I will note that 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:43.000 the Jets and the forty nine Ers are on by 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:44.480 here this week, so this is the first time we 0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:47.279 don't have a full slate, so we can really hammer 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:49.320 down on the games that are remaining. Now, we're going 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:52.840 to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. 0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:55.200 That's an aggregation of the odds that are available in 0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:57.120 the market, but as always, there are going to be 0:01:57.160 --> 0:01:59.720 differences in the various sportsbooks, so make sure to shop 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:02.400 around for the best odds. Also, if you want to 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:04.720 see how some of the top sports betting experts are 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:08.040 leaning on any given bet at any time, bettingpros dot 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:10.440 Com is going to show you that too. All right, Rich, 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:12.640 let's dive right in here with the Eagles at the 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:15.919 Packers on Thursday night. We've got the Packers laying four 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:18.000 and a half. Now, this opened much lower as you 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:19.600 might have expected, at two and a half, but it 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:21.600 has moved to four and a half and the over 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:24.680 under is currently at forty five and it was originally 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:27.840 at forty eight. I assume that this movement is because 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:30.960 the Eagles are dealing with a ton of injuries, right yeah, 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:31.240 And the. 0:02:31.200 --> 0:02:34.640 Injuries we knew going into last week were mostly of 0:02:34.680 --> 0:02:36.760 their weapons on the defensive side. We did have Timmy 0:02:36.800 --> 0:02:40.480 Jernigan Jernigant injured, and then of course we know about 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:44.200 al Seon Jeffery and some of the receiving weapons there. 0:02:44.240 --> 0:02:46.600 But then within the game we get Jason Peters with 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:50.240 an illness. He's replaced by Andre Dillard at left tackle. 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:53.320 We thought they had an embarrassment of riches upfront. He 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:56.160 goes out with an injury, so some compounding injuries outside 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:59.000 of the skill positions that we knew about last week. 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:01.880 And then on the other of the ball, the Packers 0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:04.359 three and zero, a lot of defense to start this 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:07.399 season at home. What's really a shame about this game 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:10.200 is that it's on Thursday night. Two great teams. I 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:13.240 wish they had more time to prepare for this game, 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:15.960 and I think that kind of plays into both the 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:20.800 line and the total. The public is absolutely smashing the 0:03:20.840 --> 0:03:23.160 Packers right now. I'm seeing a seventy three percent clip 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:27.200 on the number of bets being laid, and I tend 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:31.359 to lean their way, but you're right about the opener 0:03:31.400 --> 0:03:33.000 look ahead was in the same range two and a 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:34.680 half three, So we're seeing about a point a half 0:03:34.760 --> 0:03:38.640 movement based upon last week's performance of the Eagles looking 0:03:38.760 --> 0:03:41.120 terrible at home and getting more injuries, and then the 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:44.800 Packers of course covering as big home favorites against the 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:47.000 Denver Broncos in a game that was probably a little 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:50.240 closer than people think. So I think I shade the 0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:53.440 Packers here, but with so much public sentiment piling on 0:03:53.880 --> 0:03:56.960 in Green Bay. I think I'm in wait and see 0:03:57.000 --> 0:03:57.800 mode right now. 0:03:57.960 --> 0:04:00.600 Yeah, fading the public is usually a pretty sound strategy 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:03.360 going on over here. Although last week, you know the Rams. 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:06.560 I remember thinking from Sunday night that the Rams were 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:08.720 such a public play and I wanted to get off it, 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:10.920 but I couldn't because they were laying three And eventually, 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:13.480 with all the injuries to the Cleveland secondary, that line moves. 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:16.640 But sometimes you know, the public has it right, it's 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:19.320 not always the best strategy now. Also, the Eagles as 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:22.440 well lost Ronald Darby, so they are really banged up here. 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:24.039 I think he's out for four weeks. He is certainly 0:04:24.080 --> 0:04:26.480 out for this game. It does sound like Jeffrey has 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:29.359 a chance to play here. Deshaun Jackson is out. I 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:31.080 don't really think it's going to make a difference at 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:32.960 this point. They are just so banged up and really 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:35.800 in the end, the bottom line is the Packers. Their 0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:38.960 defense is really strong, and it's really really strong against 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:41.719 the pass. Their cornerbacks are playing extremely well. They're a 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:44.400 little vulnerable on the ground. You mentioned the Broncos. They 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:47.160 showed that a little bit on Sunday with Philip Lindsay 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:49.480 having a good game. Royce Freeman wasn't bad either, But 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:52.200 you know, I know Miles Sanders had a huge game 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:55.680 against the Lions, but in the end, they don't really 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:58.799 want to rely on that. Sanders had some fumble issues. 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:00.520 It's not like Jordan Howard is going to tear it up. 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:02.640 So in the end, the way to attack the Packers 0:05:02.640 --> 0:05:05.240 here is on the ground. And with everything they've got 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:07.520 going on, with the injuries to their defense, with their 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:10.240 lack of a strong running game, I'm not surprised that 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:12.400 this line has moved already as much as it has, 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:14.839 and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets up to 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:17.000 five by the time it goes. I like you lean 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:20.040 towards the Packers at this point. The total I don't 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:22.760 really have a great feel for right now. I mean 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:25.480 it's dropped again by three points, I believe from the 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:29.120 look aheadline, So that's understandable. The Eagles are still putting 0:05:29.160 --> 0:05:31.039 up points even with all their injuries. I mean, the 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:33.120 Lions don't have a terrible defense and they still wind 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:35.760 up putting up points. Although I did see some bizarre 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:38.800 stat that Wentz was tied for I think he had 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:42.680 three drops on deep passes, which was tied among if 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:45.480 you combined all other quarterbacks yesterday or something like that. 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:48.800 It's I mean, nelsonageler Man, he makes some place but 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:51.359 I can't. So I think you and I are pretty 0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:53.960 much in agreement on this one. We look right now 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:57.000 for the Packers four and a half, probably maybe five. 0:05:57.040 --> 0:05:59.040 It's Thursday, so it doesn't have as much time to move. 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:01.360 But it is one where I feel like we'll both 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:03.640 probably in the end come out on the side of 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:06.360 the public, but not something that we really feel overly 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:07.839 strongly about, right, Yeah. 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:10.040 For sure. And if you're listening to us and saying, well, 0:06:10.080 --> 0:06:12.360 these guys are idiots, I think the Eagles are being 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:16.080 totally undervalued coming off of that game. Then, like you said, 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:18.400 the strategy there is probably to wait and see if 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:20.440 this game creeps up a little bit. We're not talking 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:22.400 about key numbers here. I don't think it'll over flirt 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:25.000 with seven or anything like that. But you know, you 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:26.880 can always get the half point of value a point 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:29.599 of value here, and those those can really at the 0:06:29.640 --> 0:06:32.440 end of the day be winners and help you on 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:33.120 the loane. Yeah. 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:35.400 Absolutely, you never know on this one. I can't see 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:38.520 the line dropping from four and a half, so if 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:39.960 you do, like the Eagles, you might as well just 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:42.039 wait it out as long as possible. Let's move on 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:45.400 to the Panthers at the Texans. Interesting one here, with 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:47.840 Kyle Allen getting the start again already Cam Newton to 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:50.720 clear it out. Texans here are laying four and a half. 0:06:50.839 --> 0:06:53.280 The over under is at forty six. Thoughts on this. 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:57.159 One another game where the public is definitely favoring the 0:06:57.200 --> 0:07:00.760 home team. We're seeing the Texans getting about seventy percent 0:07:01.080 --> 0:07:05.560 of the tickets. Look aheadline didn't move really at all. 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:07.800 I'm seeing a five and a half look ahead, so 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:10.280 I guess down to points and most of that has 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.800 to do with Kyle Allen coming in and looking competent, 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:18.000 and anybody that watched Week seventeen last year Panthers at Saints, 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:20.160 we saw a Saints team that was still jocking for 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:23.559 a position in the NFC, playing a meaningful game at home, 0:07:23.600 --> 0:07:25.960 and Kyle Allen kind of marched up and down the 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:29.400 field against them before suffering an injury and the third 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:31.960 string quarterback had to jump in. With Cam Newton out 0:07:31.960 --> 0:07:35.280 for the season, this is another game where it's a 0:07:35.320 --> 0:07:39.560 dead number. It's two teams that I'm still not super 0:07:39.600 --> 0:07:42.640 confident in either one. I think the Panthers have a 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:46.680 decent amount of talent, specifically on the defensive side of 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:48.760 the ball, but that can be neutralized by a passing 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:51.960 attack as ferocious as the Houston Texans. What I was 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:54.200 really impressed by, and luckily I caught a lot of 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:56.480 the Texans game last year. Last week, sorry since he 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:59.400 was against the Chargers and it was here on the 0:07:59.400 --> 0:08:03.240 local CBS affiliate, is the Texans offensive line is starting 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.800 to come together a little bit. Tounsoll looked really good 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:10.600 at left tackle, and that was obviously their biggest woe 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:12.880 coming into the season. We talked about Andre Dillard there 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:15.400 briefly for the Eagles, and they kind of got sniped 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:18.080 in the NFL Draft. They were about to pick Dillard 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:20.200 and the Eagles traded up to take him right in 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:23.120 front of him, which kind of triggered their trade for Tunsel. 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:27.280 So another game where I don't have a very strong opinion. 0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:32.000 I think I have the slightest of leans towards the Texans, 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:35.520 but I'm definitely intrigued as to what Kyle Allen can 0:08:35.520 --> 0:08:36.680 bring to this Panthers offense. 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:38.960 I have zero feel for this game. I'm just gonna 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:41.520 be completely honest, I really do, and I think it's 0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:45.000 partly because I don't really know what we can expect 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:48.679 from Kyle Allen. Again, the Cardinals have a terrible defense. 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:50.920 He looked great, but the Cardinals are really not doing 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:54.600 it when they're down both their starting cornerbacks. So look, 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:57.800 the Panthers could very easily be three and zero if 0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:00.160 Cam Newton could throw the ball pretty much at all. 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:02.240 I do like their team really, I mean he was 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:04.240 especially the game against the Bucks. Forget if he just 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:07.640 gave that one away. They really are a strong team 0:09:07.679 --> 0:09:11.600 and I like them a lot. And the Texans are fine. 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:14.640 I was a big Texans backer before the season. Their 0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:17.200 offensive line did play a little bit better yesterday against 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:19.640 the Chargers, but still Watson holds the ball way too long. 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:22.240 I feel like he is just out there gunning for 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:25.360 an injury. But in the end, I just don't feel 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:28.160 like I have a good sense of what the Panthers 0:09:28.200 --> 0:09:31.280 are yet, so this game, I don't know what the 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:33.000 line would have to be to make me feel comfortable 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:35.080 either way, but it sounds like you're kind of there 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:37.480 maybe a slight lean on the Texans for you. I'm 0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:39.800 kind of a stay away on this game at this point. 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:42.040 At four and a half sounds about like the right number, 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:45.440 and probably again you said it, it didn't move barely 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:48.040 at all from the look ahead number. It hasn't moved 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:50.400 since I checked it early yesterday. So in the end, 0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:52.280 I think this is one that's probably right about on 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:54.400 par and not one that I see a whole lot of. 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:58.120 Value in watching last year and watching Deshaun Watson, as 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:01.840 you say, I feel like there's very few opportunities for 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.199 us to get him fully healthy. And you could probably 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:06.480 throw Will Fuller in there too, perennial out for the 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:09.360 season player Will Fuller. So I feel like there's a 0:10:09.400 --> 0:10:11.880 modicum of value that when these two guys are upright 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:13.920 and we can place a wager on them, there might 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:16.280 be some value there. So maybe I'm just grasping onto 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:18.840 those two guys while they're still standing. No, I like it. 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:20.880 They're relatively healthy and you do want to jump on 0:10:20.920 --> 0:10:22.600 them when they are. And Kenny Stills has added another 0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:24.920 dimension two to the passing game. He's been a nice 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:27.320 a sedition. Let's move on to the Browns. At the Ravens. 0:10:27.320 --> 0:10:30.240 The Ravens now are minus seven. I think I checked 0:10:30.320 --> 0:10:32.360 yesterday and it might have been minus four and a 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:34.640 half before that Browns game. I don't know. The over 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:37.880 unders said it forty six and a half. The seven 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:39.560 number for me is tough once it got to the 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:43.000 key number. I mean, I loved, certainly the Ravens at 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:45.240 minus four and a half. The Browns look in total 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:46.880 this ray, even though they could have tied that game 0:10:46.960 --> 0:10:49.400 up pretty easily had they had even a remotely decent 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:49.880 play caller. 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:50.800 But what's the reaction here? 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:53.720 Ravens minus seven over under at forty six and a half. 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:58.679 I'm done giving out ugly slight public leans. This line 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:01.719 to me is pretty stupid. Like you said, you saw 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:03.880 a four and a half look ahead, there was a 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:07.280 three and a half out there prior to the games 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:09.199 that were played this entire week, and I believe Friday 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:11.680 I looked at this when I wrote this down. We're 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:13.720 really moving the line three and a half points because 0:11:13.800 --> 0:11:17.960 the Browns looked inept on national television. Granted, the Ravens 0:11:18.280 --> 0:11:21.079 looked good on the road. They actually went punch for 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.480 punch for the Chiefs. I think you can call that 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:27.559 a back door cover though the Chiefs. It seems like, 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:30.160 especially after that second quarter blitzkrieg, which seems to be 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:33.520 their new trend, they were in control of that game 0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:36.160 and the Ravens are just kind of punching up for 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:39.640 the remainder of it. But this line should be way 0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:43.480 shorter than what it is right now. The Browns, I 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:47.240 don't think they'll look as bad as they did last week. 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:50.360 And it's really hard to take anything away from that 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:54.040 Jets game, because one can say that the Browns should 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:57.000 have dominated that game even more than they did. But 0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:59.199 it's got to be really hard to get up for 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:03.240 a game against Trevor Simeon and then once Falco's in 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:05.560 there and you're just kind of going through the motions, 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:07.160 I don't know how much we can really take away 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:09.079 from that. So now that this has moved to a 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:12.600 key number of seven, you've got seventy seven percent of 0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:16.360 the public just piling on a very public home team here. 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:18.920 I think there's a lot of value in the seven, 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:22.200 and as somebody who plays the super contests like you, 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:25.439 I am praying that we get this full seven when 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:27.080 the west Gate lines come out on Wednesday. 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:28.720 All Right, so that's gonna be one of your picks, 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:31.440 and I am less confident. I agree that seven strikes 0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:33.320 me as a very high number. I completely agree at 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:34.720 four and a half or three and a half, I 0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:38.280 was all over it. At seven, that's really tough, and 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:41.760 a divisional game, which is always kind of throws everything 0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:43.400 a little bit into the air. I agree that the 0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:46.200 Browns are better than they have shown so far. They 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:48.560 could have easily won that game yesterday if they didn't 0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:51.120 shoot themselves in the foot. They did not look good 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:53.240 against the Jets. Okay, I agree that it's hard to 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:55.559 get up for that game, but they really really did 0:12:55.600 --> 0:12:57.280 not look good and that sort of put me off 0:12:57.280 --> 0:13:00.520 them a little bit. Seven is a really tough number. 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:03.480 The public's gonna continue to pound the Ravens without a doubt, 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:04.880 right I mean, and it's just it's a one to 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.960 eighty from where we were preseason, right, Everybody that the 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:11.840 highest bet team to win the Super Bowl was the Browns. 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:15.280 Baker Mayfield I think was the most bet to win 0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:18.360 the MVP, and now everybody's just running away from them 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:20.720 based on how they look. I agree the seven number. 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:24.920 It just makes me uncomfortable. I don't I agree that 0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:27.160 when you're looking at it the values with the Browns 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:29.680 at that number, I really don't know if I'm gonna 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:31.440 be able to take it at seven. I bet it 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:33.319 stays there. I don't think it's gonna drop below the 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:34.800 key number. I bet you they're gonna keep it there 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:37.600 because they're just gonna keep getting money. Oh, sure, on 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:40.320 the Ravens. So I think if you like the Browns, 0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:42.560 you can wait it out. I don't think it's gonna 0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:44.199 move very much. I don't think you're gonna lose any 0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:46.640 value unless you think it could drop below the key number. 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:48.520 Now in light of all the public betting, I don't 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:50.319 see it. But do you think any chance it drops 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:51.680 back down to six and a half or six? 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:55.240 Well, if it moves, if it's being this heavily bet 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:57.440 on the raven side and it breaks the key number 0:13:57.480 --> 0:13:59.920 and goes down to six and a half, that means 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:05.280 the sharpest in which means you might want to fire 0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:06.240 like Browns money line. 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.920 If that's an If it moves the other way with 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:12.920 a public betting, yeah, you go right after the Browns 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:15.199 right there, so we'll see. I don't know it sounds 0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:17.920 like you think it might get more sharp action. I 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:20.280 don't know, man, I don't know. I'll be honest, I'm 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:23.200 not I'm not as as optimistic on the Browns the 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:24.920 rest of season, but this is one. 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:27.320 This is one of those where when it hurts right, 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:29.920 when you have to pinch your nose to get every 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:33.000 sense of stench away from the pick, you know it's 0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:33.680 the right side. 0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:36.560 Boy. That is a fantastic philosophy and I definitely think 0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.040 that Better should adopt it going forward. Chiefs at Lions, 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:42.640 Chiefs laying six and a half over under at fifty four, 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:44.360 that's a that's a high total there. What do you think, 0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:46.440 Chiefs laying six and a half over under fifty four. 0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:49.240 You had Rufus Peabody on last week and you guys 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:54.200 had a really great sidebar about Modelbusters guys teams that 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:57.960 are on the outlier, that it's really hard for models 0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:01.120 to adjust for them. And Roof has talked about how 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:04.840 he is okay with being wrong when it comes to 0:15:04.920 --> 0:15:07.600 the outliers, and it makes sense he wants to regress 0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:10.720 everything to the mean and if he's putting a similar 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:14.400 type bet, like if his units are consistent across and 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.440 he just loses these let these couple outlier bets. He's 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:20.160 fine with that because in the long run he's gonna win, 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:23.120 which which makes a ton of a ton of sense. 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:26.920 And the Chiefs just like the Patriots. These they're they're 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:30.880 just they're just modelbusters, man, and and it it doesn't 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:33.920 matter who's on the other side, it doesn't matter what 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:38.800 the conditions are. These two second quarter performances, first against 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:43.000 Oakland and last week against the Ravens have been things 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:45.440 that you could only do in a video game. 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:49.320 And I like, he's not human, it's not Mahomes is 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:51.720 not normal. I I know where you're going. That's exactly 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:53.920 where you're going. You cannot, would you. 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:54.440 I don't. 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:56.760 I can't see a scenario. Although I think the line, 0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:00.680 probably to be fair, should be based if I hadn't 0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:03.640 my models sitting here, it would probably be closer, closer 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:05.320 to five and a half maybe six. 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:07.880 But it's heavy. But I'm not touching. I'm not touching. 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:11.320 Oh god, I love that answer. That is absolutely correct. 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:14.840 You cannot touches. And look, they didn't cover against the Ravens, 0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:17.160 and there was a lot of I think heavy action 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:20.600 in on the Ravens this past week, but it was 0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:22.760 a backdoor cover. As you said, they could have easily 0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:25.800 blown that game away, you know, and easily won by 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:28.880 ten or twelve points that they if they really wanted to. 0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.040 I agree, Man, it's just not where I'm touching it. 0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:35.080 I think there's value in the Lions. I think realistically, 0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:36.880 if you looked at the game, that it should be 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:39.000 closer to six, maybe even five and a half. The 0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.960 Lions are a good team. Surprisingly, they played the Eagles tough, 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:45.280 they played the Chargers tough. They should have beaten the Cardinals. 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:47.040 They could be three and zero right now. So for me, 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:51.880 I'm just not going anywhere. If anything, I think I'd 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:55.280 probably back the Chiefs just because it's basically a model buster. 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:57.960 Yeah, like you said about the Lions. The Lions go 0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:01.440 on the road last week as a big do win outright, 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:04.520 and the line moves a point and a half in 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:07.840 the other direction, and the public is piling seventy seven 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:11.640 percent on that team. Right. This is otherworldly what we're 0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:12.639 seeing from it. It really is. 0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:14.680 The One thing to note is that I Darius Lay 0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:17.560 injured his hamstring in the last game. It is possible 0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:19.240 that he's going to miss In fact, I think the 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.280 latest report sounded like it was likely, and that's only 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:26.080 going to bolster the Chiefs chances here. But in the 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:30.000 end it doesn't really matter because Mahomes makes unreal throws, 0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:32.000 but half the time the guys are just running down 0:17:32.000 --> 0:17:35.119 the field completely uncovered. It doesn't really matter. So in 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:38.280 the end, if Sleigh is out, I certainly lean stronger 0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:39.840 towards the Chiefs. If I had to pick a side, 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:41.960 it would be the Chiefs. But man, it is just 0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:45.800 difficult to properly analyze these types of games because mymes, 0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:48.800 he's a video game. Like you said, it's just not normal. 0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:51.440 Let's move on here to the Patriots at the Bills. 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:54.960 We finally have a normal Patriots spread. This is Patriots 0:17:55.000 --> 0:17:58.159 minus seven. The over under is that forty three. Julian 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.600 Edelman did injure his ribs I believe, or his chest. 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:04.199 That's called both. Josh Gordon left on and off with 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:07.479 the injury yesterday, and of course they no longer have 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:09.560