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Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It is time for

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Speaker 1: our early look at next week's lines, and there are

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Speaker 1: some pretty interesting ones out for week four. With me

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Speaker 1: to break it all down is Rich Ryan, host of

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Speaker 1: the Gridiron Gamble podcast. You can find Rich on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at rich t Ryan.

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Speaker 2: Rich.

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Speaker 1: How's it going?

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Speaker 2: It is going quite well. It's still nice and warm

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Speaker 2: out here in beautiful southern California. I like you are now.

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Speaker 2: I used to be an East Coaster and I will

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Speaker 2: never find myself back on the East Coast barring something incredible,

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Speaker 2: because I can't get away from the sunshine and warmth.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm not just the East Coast, to be clear.

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Speaker 1: I'm like Northeast Coast, so usually we're covered in snow,

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Speaker 1: but today was ninety so I'm basically right where you are. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's the best.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I'm actually really glad that you're on the show because

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Speaker 1: I didn't know this, but we were talking right before

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Speaker 1: we recorded. Like me, you are also a Jets fan,

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Speaker 1: so we can basically commiserate together, except for the fact

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Speaker 1: that the Jets are on a bye this week, so

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Speaker 1: we do not have to work out now. Theoretically, if

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Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers were facing the Jets on a

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Speaker 1: neutral field, I don't know, eight and a half maybe depends,

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Speaker 1: I guess on if Darnold was going to play.

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Speaker 2: But I feel like.

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Speaker 1: Whatever it would be, you would have to hammer home

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Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers no matter what, because if you've

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Speaker 1: watched the Jets, especially with Luke Falk, you are not

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Speaker 1: optimistic right now on their season. But in the meantime,

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Speaker 1: Rich and I are going to go game by game

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Speaker 1: here for Week four, and we're going to start with

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Speaker 1: the Thursday night game between the Packers and the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: and we'll end with the Monday night game between the

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Speaker 1: Bengals and the Steelers. And again I will note that

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Speaker 1: the Jets and the forty nine Ers are on by

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Speaker 1: here this week, so this is the first time we

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Speaker 1: don't have a full slate, so we can really hammer

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Speaker 1: down on the games that are remaining. Now, we're going

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Speaker 1: to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com.

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Speaker 1: That's an aggregation of the odds that are available in

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Speaker 1: the market, but as always, there are going to be

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Speaker 1: differences in the various sportsbooks, so make sure to shop

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Speaker 1: around for the best odds. Also, if you want to

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Speaker 1: see how some of the top sports betting experts are

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Speaker 1: leaning on any given bet at any time, bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: Com is going to show you that too. All right, Rich,

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Speaker 1: let's dive right in here with the Eagles at the

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Speaker 1: Packers on Thursday night. We've got the Packers laying four

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Speaker 1: and a half. Now, this opened much lower as you

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Speaker 1: might have expected, at two and a half, but it

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Speaker 1: has moved to four and a half and the over

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Speaker 1: under is currently at forty five and it was originally

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Speaker 1: at forty eight. I assume that this movement is because

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Speaker 1: the Eagles are dealing with a ton of injuries, right yeah,

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Speaker 1: And the.

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Speaker 2: Injuries we knew going into last week were mostly of

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Speaker 2: their weapons on the defensive side. We did have Timmy

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Speaker 2: Jernigan Jernigant injured, and then of course we know about

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Speaker 2: al Seon Jeffery and some of the receiving weapons there.

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Speaker 2: But then within the game we get Jason Peters with

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Speaker 2: an illness. He's replaced by Andre Dillard at left tackle.

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Speaker 2: We thought they had an embarrassment of riches upfront. He

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Speaker 2: goes out with an injury, so some compounding injuries outside

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Speaker 2: of the skill positions that we knew about last week.

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Speaker 2: And then on the other of the ball, the Packers

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Speaker 2: three and zero, a lot of defense to start this

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Speaker 2: season at home. What's really a shame about this game

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Speaker 2: is that it's on Thursday night. Two great teams. I

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Speaker 2: wish they had more time to prepare for this game,

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Speaker 2: and I think that kind of plays into both the

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Speaker 2: line and the total. The public is absolutely smashing the

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Speaker 2: Packers right now. I'm seeing a seventy three percent clip

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Speaker 2: on the number of bets being laid, and I tend

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Speaker 2: to lean their way, but you're right about the opener

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Speaker 2: look ahead was in the same range two and a

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Speaker 2: half three, So we're seeing about a point a half

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Speaker 2: movement based upon last week's performance of the Eagles looking

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Speaker 2: terrible at home and getting more injuries, and then the

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Speaker 2: Packers of course covering as big home favorites against the

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Speaker 2: Denver Broncos in a game that was probably a little

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Speaker 2: closer than people think. So I think I shade the

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Speaker 2: Packers here, but with so much public sentiment piling on

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Speaker 2: in Green Bay. I think I'm in wait and see

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Speaker 2: mode right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, fading the public is usually a pretty sound strategy

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Speaker 1: going on over here. Although last week, you know the Rams.

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Speaker 1: I remember thinking from Sunday night that the Rams were

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Speaker 1: such a public play and I wanted to get off it,

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Speaker 1: but I couldn't because they were laying three And eventually,

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Speaker 1: with all the injuries to the Cleveland secondary, that line moves.

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Speaker 1: But sometimes you know, the public has it right, it's

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Speaker 1: not always the best strategy now. Also, the Eagles as

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Speaker 1: well lost Ronald Darby, so they are really banged up here.

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Speaker 1: I think he's out for four weeks. He is certainly

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Speaker 1: out for this game. It does sound like Jeffrey has

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Speaker 1: a chance to play here. Deshaun Jackson is out. I

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Speaker 1: don't really think it's going to make a difference at

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Speaker 1: this point. They are just so banged up and really

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Speaker 1: in the end, the bottom line is the Packers. Their

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Speaker 1: defense is really strong, and it's really really strong against

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Speaker 1: the pass. Their cornerbacks are playing extremely well. They're a

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Speaker 1: little vulnerable on the ground. You mentioned the Broncos. They

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Speaker 1: showed that a little bit on Sunday with Philip Lindsay

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Speaker 1: having a good game. Royce Freeman wasn't bad either, But

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Speaker 1: you know, I know Miles Sanders had a huge game

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Speaker 1: against the Lions, but in the end, they don't really

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Speaker 1: want to rely on that. Sanders had some fumble issues.

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Speaker 1: It's not like Jordan Howard is going to tear it up.

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Speaker 1: So in the end, the way to attack the Packers

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Speaker 1: here is on the ground. And with everything they've got

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Speaker 1: going on, with the injuries to their defense, with their

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Speaker 1: lack of a strong running game, I'm not surprised that

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Speaker 1: this line has moved already as much as it has,

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Speaker 1: and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets up to

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Speaker 1: five by the time it goes. I like you lean

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Speaker 1: towards the Packers at this point. The total I don't

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Speaker 1: really have a great feel for right now. I mean

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Speaker 1: it's dropped again by three points, I believe from the

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Speaker 1: look aheadline, So that's understandable. The Eagles are still putting

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Speaker 1: up points even with all their injuries. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: Lions don't have a terrible defense and they still wind

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Speaker 1: up putting up points. Although I did see some bizarre

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Speaker 1: stat that Wentz was tied for I think he had

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Speaker 1: three drops on deep passes, which was tied among if

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Speaker 1: you combined all other quarterbacks yesterday or something like that.

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Speaker 1: It's I mean, nelsonageler Man, he makes some place but

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Speaker 1: I can't. So I think you and I are pretty

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Speaker 1: much in agreement on this one. We look right now

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Speaker 1: for the Packers four and a half, probably maybe five.

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Speaker 1: It's Thursday, so it doesn't have as much time to move.

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Speaker 1: But it is one where I feel like we'll both

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Speaker 1: probably in the end come out on the side of

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Speaker 1: the public, but not something that we really feel overly

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Speaker 1: strongly about, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: For sure. And if you're listening to us and saying, well,

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Speaker 2: these guys are idiots, I think the Eagles are being

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Speaker 2: totally undervalued coming off of that game. Then, like you said,

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Speaker 2: the strategy there is probably to wait and see if

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Speaker 2: this game creeps up a little bit. We're not talking

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Speaker 2: about key numbers here. I don't think it'll over flirt

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Speaker 2: with seven or anything like that. But you know, you

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Speaker 2: can always get the half point of value a point

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Speaker 2: of value here, and those those can really at the

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Speaker 2: end of the day be winners and help you on

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Speaker 2: the loane. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, you never know on this one. I can't see

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Speaker 1: the line dropping from four and a half, so if

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Speaker 1: you do, like the Eagles, you might as well just

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Speaker 1: wait it out as long as possible. Let's move on

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Speaker 1: to the Panthers at the Texans. Interesting one here, with

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Speaker 1: Kyle Allen getting the start again already Cam Newton to

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Speaker 1: clear it out. Texans here are laying four and a half.

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Speaker 1: The over under is at forty six. Thoughts on this.

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Speaker 2: One another game where the public is definitely favoring the

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Speaker 2: home team. We're seeing the Texans getting about seventy percent

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Speaker 2: of the tickets. Look aheadline didn't move really at all.

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Speaker 2: I'm seeing a five and a half look ahead, so

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Speaker 2: I guess down to points and most of that has

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Speaker 2: to do with Kyle Allen coming in and looking competent,

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Speaker 2: and anybody that watched Week seventeen last year Panthers at Saints,

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Speaker 2: we saw a Saints team that was still jocking for

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Speaker 2: a position in the NFC, playing a meaningful game at home,

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Speaker 2: and Kyle Allen kind of marched up and down the

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Speaker 2: field against them before suffering an injury and the third

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Speaker 2: string quarterback had to jump in. With Cam Newton out

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Speaker 2: for the season, this is another game where it's a

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Speaker 2: dead number. It's two teams that I'm still not super

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Speaker 2: confident in either one. I think the Panthers have a

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Speaker 2: decent amount of talent, specifically on the defensive side of

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Speaker 2: the ball, but that can be neutralized by a passing

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Speaker 2: attack as ferocious as the Houston Texans. What I was

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Speaker 2: really impressed by, and luckily I caught a lot of

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Speaker 2: the Texans game last year. Last week, sorry since he

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Speaker 2: was against the Chargers and it was here on the

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Speaker 2: local CBS affiliate, is the Texans offensive line is starting

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Speaker 2: to come together a little bit. Tounsoll looked really good

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Speaker 2: at left tackle, and that was obviously their biggest woe

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Speaker 2: coming into the season. We talked about Andre Dillard there

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Speaker 2: briefly for the Eagles, and they kind of got sniped

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Speaker 2: in the NFL Draft. They were about to pick Dillard

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Speaker 2: and the Eagles traded up to take him right in

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Speaker 2: front of him, which kind of triggered their trade for Tunsel.

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Speaker 2: So another game where I don't have a very strong opinion.

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Speaker 2: I think I have the slightest of leans towards the Texans,

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Speaker 2: but I'm definitely intrigued as to what Kyle Allen can

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Speaker 2: bring to this Panthers offense.

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Speaker 1: I have zero feel for this game. I'm just gonna

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Speaker 1: be completely honest, I really do, and I think it's

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Speaker 1: partly because I don't really know what we can expect

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Speaker 1: from Kyle Allen. Again, the Cardinals have a terrible defense.

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Speaker 1: He looked great, but the Cardinals are really not doing

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Speaker 1: it when they're down both their starting cornerbacks. So look,

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Speaker 1: the Panthers could very easily be three and zero if

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Speaker 1: Cam Newton could throw the ball pretty much at all.

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Speaker 1: I do like their team really, I mean he was

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Speaker 1: especially the game against the Bucks. Forget if he just

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Speaker 1: gave that one away. They really are a strong team

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Speaker 1: and I like them a lot. And the Texans are fine.

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Speaker 1: I was a big Texans backer before the season. Their

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Speaker 1: offensive line did play a little bit better yesterday against

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Speaker 1: the Chargers, but still Watson holds the ball way too long.

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Speaker 1: I feel like he is just out there gunning for

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Speaker 1: an injury. But in the end, I just don't feel

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Speaker 1: like I have a good sense of what the Panthers

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Speaker 1: are yet, so this game, I don't know what the

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Speaker 1: line would have to be to make me feel comfortable

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Speaker 1: either way, but it sounds like you're kind of there

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Speaker 1: maybe a slight lean on the Texans for you. I'm

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Speaker 1: kind of a stay away on this game at this point.

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Speaker 1: At four and a half sounds about like the right number,

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Speaker 1: and probably again you said it, it didn't move barely

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Speaker 1: at all from the look ahead number. It hasn't moved

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Speaker 1: since I checked it early yesterday. So in the end,

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Speaker 1: I think this is one that's probably right about on

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Speaker 1: par and not one that I see a whole lot of.

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Speaker 2: Value in watching last year and watching Deshaun Watson, as

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Speaker 2: you say, I feel like there's very few opportunities for

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Speaker 2: us to get him fully healthy. And you could probably

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Speaker 2: throw Will Fuller in there too, perennial out for the

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Speaker 2: season player Will Fuller. So I feel like there's a

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Speaker 2: modicum of value that when these two guys are upright

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Speaker 2: and we can place a wager on them, there might

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Speaker 2: be some value there. So maybe I'm just grasping onto

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Speaker 2: those two guys while they're still standing. No, I like it.

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Speaker 1: They're relatively healthy and you do want to jump on

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Speaker 1: them when they are. And Kenny Stills has added another

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Speaker 1: dimension two to the passing game. He's been a nice

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Speaker 1: a sedition. Let's move on to the Browns. At the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: The Ravens now are minus seven. I think I checked

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Speaker 1: yesterday and it might have been minus four and a

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Speaker 1: half before that Browns game. I don't know. The over

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Speaker 1: unders said it forty six and a half. The seven

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Speaker 1: number for me is tough once it got to the

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Speaker 1: key number. I mean, I loved, certainly the Ravens at

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Speaker 1: minus four and a half. The Browns look in total

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Speaker 1: this ray, even though they could have tied that game

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Speaker 1: up pretty easily had they had even a remotely decent

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Speaker 1: play caller.

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Speaker 2: But what's the reaction here?

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Speaker 1: Ravens minus seven over under at forty six and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'm done giving out ugly slight public leans. This line

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Speaker 2: to me is pretty stupid. Like you said, you saw

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Speaker 2: a four and a half look ahead, there was a

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Speaker 2: three and a half out there prior to the games

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Speaker 2: that were played this entire week, and I believe Friday

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Speaker 2: I looked at this when I wrote this down. We're

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Speaker 2: really moving the line three and a half points because

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Speaker 2: the Browns looked inept on national television. Granted, the Ravens

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Speaker 2: looked good on the road. They actually went punch for

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Speaker 2: punch for the Chiefs. I think you can call that

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Speaker 2: a back door cover though the Chiefs. It seems like,

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Speaker 2: especially after that second quarter blitzkrieg, which seems to be

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Speaker 2: their new trend, they were in control of that game

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Speaker 2: and the Ravens are just kind of punching up for

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Speaker 2: the remainder of it. But this line should be way

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Speaker 2: shorter than what it is right now. The Browns, I

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Speaker 2: don't think they'll look as bad as they did last week.

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Speaker 2: And it's really hard to take anything away from that

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Speaker 2: Jets game, because one can say that the Browns should

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Speaker 2: have dominated that game even more than they did. But

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Speaker 2: it's got to be really hard to get up for

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Speaker 2: a game against Trevor Simeon and then once Falco's in

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Speaker 2: there and you're just kind of going through the motions,

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Speaker 2: I don't know how much we can really take away

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Speaker 2: from that. So now that this has moved to a

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Speaker 2: key number of seven, you've got seventy seven percent of

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Speaker 2: the public just piling on a very public home team here.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of value in the seven,

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Speaker 2: and as somebody who plays the super contests like you,

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Speaker 2: I am praying that we get this full seven when

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Speaker 2: the west Gate lines come out on Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: All Right, so that's gonna be one of your picks,

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Speaker 1: and I am less confident. I agree that seven strikes

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Speaker 1: me as a very high number. I completely agree at

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Speaker 1: four and a half or three and a half, I

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Speaker 1: was all over it. At seven, that's really tough, and

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Speaker 1: a divisional game, which is always kind of throws everything

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Speaker 1: a little bit into the air. I agree that the

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Speaker 1: Browns are better than they have shown so far. They

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Speaker 1: could have easily won that game yesterday if they didn't

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Speaker 1: shoot themselves in the foot. They did not look good

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Speaker 1: against the Jets. Okay, I agree that it's hard to

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Speaker 1: get up for that game, but they really really did

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Speaker 1: not look good and that sort of put me off

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Speaker 1: them a little bit. Seven is a really tough number.

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Speaker 1: The public's gonna continue to pound the Ravens without a doubt,

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Speaker 1: right I mean, and it's just it's a one to

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Speaker 1: eighty from where we were preseason, right, Everybody that the

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Speaker 1: highest bet team to win the Super Bowl was the Browns.

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Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield I think was the most bet to win

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Speaker 1: the MVP, and now everybody's just running away from them

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Speaker 1: based on how they look. I agree the seven number.

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Speaker 1: It just makes me uncomfortable. I don't I agree that

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Speaker 1: when you're looking at it the values with the Browns

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Speaker 1: at that number, I really don't know if I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to take it at seven. I bet it

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Speaker 1: stays there. I don't think it's gonna drop below the

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Speaker 1: key number. I bet you they're gonna keep it there

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Speaker 1: because they're just gonna keep getting money. Oh, sure, on

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Speaker 1: the Ravens. So I think if you like the Browns,

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Speaker 1: you can wait it out. I don't think it's gonna

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Speaker 1: move very much. I don't think you're gonna lose any

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Speaker 1: value unless you think it could drop below the key number.

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Speaker 1: Now in light of all the public betting, I don't

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Speaker 1: see it. But do you think any chance it drops

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Speaker 1: back down to six and a half or six?

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Speaker 2: Well, if it moves, if it's being this heavily bet

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Speaker 2: on the raven side and it breaks the key number

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Speaker 2: and goes down to six and a half, that means

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Speaker 2: the sharpest in which means you might want to fire

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Speaker 2: like Browns money line.

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Speaker 1: If that's an If it moves the other way with

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Speaker 1: a public betting, yeah, you go right after the Browns

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Speaker 1: right there, so we'll see. I don't know it sounds

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Speaker 1: like you think it might get more sharp action. I

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Speaker 1: don't know, man, I don't know. I'll be honest, I'm

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Speaker 1: not I'm not as as optimistic on the Browns the

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Speaker 1: rest of season, but this is one.

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Speaker 2: This is one of those where when it hurts right,

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Speaker 2: when you have to pinch your nose to get every

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Speaker 2: sense of stench away from the pick, you know it's

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Speaker 2: the right side.

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Speaker 1: Boy. That is a fantastic philosophy and I definitely think

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Speaker 1: that Better should adopt it going forward. Chiefs at Lions,

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Speaker 1: Chiefs laying six and a half over under at fifty four,

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Speaker 1: that's a that's a high total there. What do you think,

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Speaker 1: Chiefs laying six and a half over under fifty four.

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Speaker 2: You had Rufus Peabody on last week and you guys

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Speaker 2: had a really great sidebar about Modelbusters guys teams that

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Speaker 2: are on the outlier, that it's really hard for models

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Speaker 2: to adjust for them. And Roof has talked about how

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Speaker 2: he is okay with being wrong when it comes to

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Speaker 2: the outliers, and it makes sense he wants to regress

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Speaker 2: everything to the mean and if he's putting a similar

341
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Speaker 2: type bet, like if his units are consistent across and

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Speaker 2: he just loses these let these couple outlier bets. He's

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Speaker 2: fine with that because in the long run he's gonna win,

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Speaker 2: which which makes a ton of a ton of sense.

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Speaker 2: And the Chiefs just like the Patriots. These they're they're

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Speaker 2: just they're just modelbusters, man, and and it it doesn't

347
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Speaker 2: matter who's on the other side, it doesn't matter what

348
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Speaker 2: the conditions are. These two second quarter performances, first against

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Speaker 2: Oakland and last week against the Ravens have been things

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Speaker 2: that you could only do in a video game.

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Speaker 1: And I like, he's not human, it's not Mahomes is

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Speaker 1: not normal. I I know where you're going. That's exactly

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Speaker 1: where you're going. You cannot, would you.

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Speaker 2: I don't.

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Speaker 1: I can't see a scenario. Although I think the line,

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Speaker 1: probably to be fair, should be based if I hadn't

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Speaker 1: my models sitting here, it would probably be closer, closer

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Speaker 1: to five and a half maybe six.

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Speaker 2: But it's heavy. But I'm not touching. I'm not touching.

360
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Speaker 1: Oh god, I love that answer. That is absolutely correct.

361
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Speaker 1: You cannot touches. And look, they didn't cover against the Ravens,

362
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Speaker 1: and there was a lot of I think heavy action

363
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Speaker 1: in on the Ravens this past week, but it was

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Speaker 1: a backdoor cover. As you said, they could have easily

365
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Speaker 1: blown that game away, you know, and easily won by

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Speaker 1: ten or twelve points that they if they really wanted to.

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Speaker 1: I agree, Man, it's just not where I'm touching it.

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Speaker 1: I think there's value in the Lions. I think realistically,

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Speaker 1: if you looked at the game, that it should be

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Speaker 1: closer to six, maybe even five and a half. The

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Speaker 1: Lions are a good team. Surprisingly, they played the Eagles tough,

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Speaker 1: they played the Chargers tough. They should have beaten the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: They could be three and zero right now. So for me,

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Speaker 1: I'm just not going anywhere. If anything, I think I'd

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Speaker 1: probably back the Chiefs just because it's basically a model buster.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like you said about the Lions. The Lions go

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Speaker 2: on the road last week as a big do win outright,

378
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Speaker 2: and the line moves a point and a half in

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Speaker 2: the other direction, and the public is piling seventy seven

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Speaker 2: percent on that team. Right. This is otherworldly what we're

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Speaker 2: seeing from it. It really is.

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Speaker 1: The One thing to note is that I Darius Lay

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Speaker 1: injured his hamstring in the last game. It is possible

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Speaker 1: that he's going to miss In fact, I think the

385
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Speaker 1: latest report sounded like it was likely, and that's only

386
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Speaker 1: going to bolster the Chiefs chances here. But in the

387
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Speaker 1: end it doesn't really matter because Mahomes makes unreal throws,

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Speaker 1: but half the time the guys are just running down

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Speaker 1: the field completely uncovered. It doesn't really matter. So in

390
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Speaker 1: the end, if Sleigh is out, I certainly lean stronger

391
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Speaker 1: towards the Chiefs. If I had to pick a side,

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Speaker 1: it would be the Chiefs. But man, it is just

393
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Speaker 1: difficult to properly analyze these types of games because mymes,

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Speaker 1: he's a video game. Like you said, it's just not normal.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Patriots at the Bills.

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Speaker 1: We finally have a normal Patriots spread. This is Patriots

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Speaker 1: minus seven. The over under is that forty three. Julian

398
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Speaker 1: Edelman did injure his ribs I believe, or his chest.

399
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Speaker 1: That's called both. Josh Gordon left on and off with

400
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Speaker 1: the injury yesterday, and of course they no longer have

401
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Speaker 1: Antonio Brown. What's your I have a kind of a

402
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Speaker 1: strong reaction to this one, So let me know if

403
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Speaker 1: you feel anything on the Patriots link seven over under

404
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Speaker 1: forty three in Buffalo.

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Speaker 2: I'm more interested to hear you because I'm very much

406
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Speaker 2: on the fence about this because historically, like the Patriots

407
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:25,960
Speaker 2: or like the Chiefs, the Patriots are the model busters.

408
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:31,639
Speaker 2: And my gut, my total analysis is saying, of course

409
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Speaker 2: the Bills of the right side, we're talking about a

410
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Speaker 2: division game getting a full seven. I'm seeing minus one

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00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,639
Speaker 2: sixteen on the betting pros view right now, which means

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Speaker 2: the action is definitely on the Bills, and there's a

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Speaker 2: chance that this could fall to six and a half.

414
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Speaker 2: So if you're out there and you are intrigued by

415
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Speaker 2: a buffalo, now might be the time to grab them

416
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Speaker 2: while you get the full seven. But just like the Chiefs,

417
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Speaker 2: you just don't make money betting against the New England Patriots.

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Speaker 2: So if I'm going to do anything in this game,

419
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Speaker 2: I might go for a long teaser and drop the

420
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 2: Pats down to one and pair them with another side.

421
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 2: But me personally, I'm not gonna be happy holding a

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Speaker 2: plus seven ticket and watching this game an Orchard Park.

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Speaker 1: It is really interesting this year, Like, you're never gonna

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Speaker 1: feel comfortable taking the Dolphins. They could be getting twenty

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Speaker 1: four points and you're just gonna be like, I just

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Speaker 1: I know this is value, but I do not feel

427
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Speaker 1: comfortable in it. You're gonna feel the same way when

428
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Speaker 1: you bet against the Patriots, which is why I think, honestly,

429
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Speaker 1: this is not a high enough spread.

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Speaker 2: I know it.

431
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Speaker 1: Look, the Bills are three, and now they're playing at home.

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Speaker 1: They've got a nice home field advantage. But I don't

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Speaker 1: I mean, if ed Only doesn't play, perhaps, okay, maybe

434
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 1: I get it because they're just kind of running out

435
00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:43,399
Speaker 1: of options at this point. But in the end, I

436
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 1: just don't really fully buy what we've seen from Buffalo

437
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,960
Speaker 1: right now. They have beaten up on three really really

438
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 1: weak teams, the Jets, the Giants, and the Bengals, who

439
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,679
Speaker 1: are probably the best of the bunch. The Patriots have

440
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 1: gone up there at least the last two years, I

441
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 1: think the last three and just demolish the Bills, blown

442
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,919
Speaker 1: them out of the water. I see that happening again.

443
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:06,959
Speaker 1: I think they want to make a statement coming in

444
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,120
Speaker 1: here and show just how good they are. I think

445
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:12,159
Speaker 1: that defense, although again the Patriots have also generally had

446
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 1: soft matchups. They did have the Steelers in Week one,

447
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,919
Speaker 1: but Ben probably was dealing with the elbow injury. I

448
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:18,399
Speaker 1: think they're going to go up there and I think

449
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 1: they're gonna pound, and honestly, there's no way I'm betting

450
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 1: against them pretty much under any circumstances at this point.

451
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,119
Speaker 1: It's a little bit like the model buster theory, like

452
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 1: you said. But for me, I look, as much as

453
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 1: the early money might be coming in, if I like

454
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 1: the Bills, I'd actually wait this out because I think

455
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:35,919
Speaker 1: it's going to get past the key number. I think

456
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:37,920
Speaker 1: this closes its seven and a half or eight, because

457
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 1: I think eventually, when you look at it the Bills, it's,

458
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:45,400
Speaker 1: you know, as much as their defense is solid, absolutely

459
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 1: they're not good enough to stop the Patriots because no

460
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:52,080
Speaker 1: defense is and their offense, I mean, it's fine, but

461
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 1: if Singletary is out again, I mean they kind of

462
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 1: grinded out that win against the Cincinnati team that was

463
00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,199
Speaker 1: run all over by San Francisco the week before. So

464
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:04,000
Speaker 1: for me, I think once you the Bills get behind,

465
00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna be able to run the

466
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 1: ball as much as they want. You're gonna have to

467
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,400
Speaker 1: put in Josh Allen's hands. There's gonna be like forty interceptions.

468
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 1: So I think in the end this spread is actually

469
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,400
Speaker 1: going to go a little higher when all things sort

470
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 1: of settle and that if you want the Bills, I

471
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 1: might actually wait it out because I think the spread

472
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 1: might go a little bit higher.

473
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 2: I definitely agree that the Bills seem to be a

474
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 2: bit overvalued, while it's not being shown in this spread. Again, again,

475
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 2: this is the Bills going to three and zero and

476
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 2: the look aheadline is up a half point in the

477
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 2: other direction. But yeah, you're right, Bills. They win at Jets,

478
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 2: at Giants home to Bengals. Basically, this isn't a zero

479
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 2: zero team.

480
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:41,679
Speaker 1: And by the way they lost against the Jets, they

481
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,199
Speaker 1: should have if CJ. Moseley does not get injured in

482
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 1: that game, they were down sixteen to nothing. I believe

483
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 1: they do not come back to win that game. So

484
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:50,919
Speaker 1: I'm really I just they're a decent team, and I

485
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 1: think they were at six and a half wins by

486
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 1: the way. Preseason I had the over on them. I

487
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,439
Speaker 1: listed them in one of our preseason episodes. But I

488
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 1: just don't see it. I think the Patriots are going

489
00:21:58,320 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 1: to blow them out of the water.

490
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,159
Speaker 2: See J. Mosley, No good deed goes unpunished, makes an

491
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,880
Speaker 2: amazing play in coverage, and of course Hurts is going.

492
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:08,159
Speaker 1: That's how it happens, but it looks like we're a

493
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: little bit on different sides. You're not jumping for joy

494
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 1: over the bills, but I have a strong Patriots leane.

495
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,360
Speaker 1: I think the line's going to move up. So we'll

496
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 1: see about that one before we move on to our

497
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,399
Speaker 1: next game. I do want to tell everyone about the

498
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Speaker 1: got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right,

528
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: let's move to the next game here, Chargers at Dolphins.

529
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 1: This also hasn't moved as far as I could tell.

530
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 1: The Chargers are laying sixteen and a half, the smallest

531
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 1: spread we've seen with the Dolphins in a while, and

532
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: the over unders had forty four and a half. Thoughts

533
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 1: on this one.

534
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 2: This is the week, right, This has to be it.

535
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 2: This is it. You're going with the Dolphins. This has

536
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 2: to be it. The Dolphins inside the number for the

537
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:05,439
Speaker 2: entire game last week until Pollard walked in with a

538
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 2: touchdown towards the end there. If you had real money

539
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 2: in the Dolphins last week, I apologize because that should

540
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 2: have been the week. But this is definitely the week

541
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 2: for those of you that are listening to this and

542
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 2: that listen to Gridiron Gamble. Since the preseason, we've been

543
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 2: asking questions about this Chargers team, and all they've done

544
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,679
Speaker 2: since then is lose Derwin James. They lost cornerback. I

545
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 2: believe it was in Michael Davis. And you've never heard

546
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 2: of Michael Davis probably I probably had never heard of

547
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 2: him before he got hurt. But one of our rules

548
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 2: on the podcast is if you don't know somebody and

549
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 2: they're out, just imagine how bad their backup is, because

550
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 2: they're gonna be taking the field. This is a bad

551
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: Chargers team. This is a six and ten type roster

552
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 2: that we're clinging onto last year's late run and playoff

553
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 2: plays into this season, and that's just not the case.

554
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,360
Speaker 2: I think this game is going to be surprise closer

555
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 2: than people think Rosen looked good last week, did not

556
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 2: get any help from his receivers. But as Rufus said

557
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 2: last week, this is a professional football team with professional players,

558
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 2: and I really think this is the week that the

559
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 2: Dolphins play a competitive game, and I love them at

560
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 2: this number.

561
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,919
Speaker 1: Actually, it's all, Oh, that's like the strongest take that

562
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 1: I have heard in a while, and I love it

563
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: and I'm really excited by it.

564
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 2: Look, the Dolphins could have been.

565
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,639
Speaker 1: Ahead yesterday at halftime. Okay, if Kenyan Drake doesn't fumble

566
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: the ball, if anybody can hold on to the ball,

567
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 1: they might go into halftime ahead. And like you said,

568
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 1: they pretty much should have covered had they not blown

569
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: it at the very end. It's a West Coast team

570
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 1: traveling east. The only thing I will say is that

571
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 1: the charters are probably pretty mad and they're pretty desperate

572
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 1: for a win. They are banged up, as they are

573
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 1: always banged up, as you point out, so I can

574
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,719
Speaker 1: see it certainly being close. But again, this is one

575
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 1: of these things where, man, I know, I know that

576
00:25:58,119 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 1: the right way to do it is just a bench,

577
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,439
Speaker 1: you know, to keep kind of putting money at the

578
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,880
Speaker 1: Dolphins where there's value. I don't know if I could

579
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: do it, I certainly don't feel as strong as you do,

580
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 1: but I admire your enthusiasm.

581
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 2: Man. I think it's fair.

582
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: I think in the end, when push comes to shove,

583
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 1: if it stays at this number, and as far as

584
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: I've seen there's been no signs of it moving, I

585
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,719
Speaker 1: probably would lean towards the Dolphins. I agree with you

586
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 1: that they are just a little bit better than they've shown,

587
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 1: and they looked better yesterday until ultimately blowing it. So

588
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 1: that is something where I don't think I expected you

589
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 1: to come up and be like this is it Dolphins

590
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 1: all the way? But you know, the West coast traveling

591
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 1: east is certainly a real thing. So that's interesting. Okay,

592
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 1: we'll see if this line moves, but in the end

593
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 1: you like it at Dolphins getting sixteen and a half.

594
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 1: I'm a little less excited about it, but I do

595
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: lean that way. So that's all a fair point. Let's

596
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: move on to our next game, Raiders at the Colts.

597
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 1: The Colts here are laying six and a half and

598
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 1: the over under is at forty four and a half.

599
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,160
Speaker 1: Colts coming off a big win. They look good. They

600
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 1: did lose t Y Hilton. I haven't heard about his

601
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 1: availability yet for next week. It didn't sound particularly great

602
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 1: when I heard about it, but they have obviously looked

603
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 1: very strong. They haven't missed Andrew Luck that much. To

604
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 1: Kobe Brissette, looks very comfortable. They have a strong defense,

605
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 1: They've got a strong offensive line, and the Raiders, after

606
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: looking great against the Broncos, have laid up two duds,

607
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,679
Speaker 1: admittedly against tough teams and the Vikings and the Chiefs.

608
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: What do you think here? Colts lank six and a

609
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: half at home in the over under at forty four

610
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 1: and a half.

611
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,360
Speaker 2: The Colts the exact opposite of the Chargers. We kind

612
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 2: of loved them as a collective unit coming into the season,

613
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 2: and our love did not fade with the Andrew Luck

614
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 2: retirement because we believe in Frank Reich, we believe in

615
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 2: the way this team constructed and is constructed, and moreover,

616
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 2: we believe in this Colts offensive line, which is just

617
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 2: moving mountains. And credit to Marlon Mack. Marlon Mack last

618
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 2: year kind of got what it was blocked for him

619
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 2: and was good for it. And he's added some tools

620
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 2: to his game which have taken it to the next

621
00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 2: level where he's obviously getting what's blocked for him and

622
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 2: then some This game's interesting because look Ahead was six.

623
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 2: You said it was six and a half, but it

624
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 2: opened at seven in some places, and it was sharply

625
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 2: pounded back to six and a half despite seventy five

626
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 2: percent of the public being on Indy. So that's a

627
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 2: very quick reverse line move off of a key number,

628
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 2: which makes me very very queasy knee jerk. I want

629
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 2: to say that the Colts might be the right side

630
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 2: in this game, but it's getting to the point where

631
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 2: can we trust Jacoby Prissett to cover large lines to

632
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 2: win the game? Sure, I think the Colts are a

633
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 2: great teaser candidate. It stinks that they're it's funny as

634
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 2: a tease. It stinks that they're below seven, so you

635
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 2: don't get the true wong teas. We're still getting them

636
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 2: down to a half point, which is still great value.

637
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 2: And the problem is is that Persett's not one to

638
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 2: throw the ball downfield and really extend the lead. We

639
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 2: saw that yesterday that got out to a massive lead

640
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 2: against the Falcons and really didn't put them away. Obviously,

641
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 2: the Falcons have a great offense. Matt Ryan when he's

642
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 2: on is fantastic. Julio Jones is out of this world.

643
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 2: So I think the Colts should have won more comfortably yesterday,

644
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 2: but left the door wide open and that could ultimately

645
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 2: bite them in the ass here when they're laying six

646
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 2: and a half against the Raiders.

647
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't. I kind of like you. I

648
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: don't have a great feel for the spread. I mean,

649
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: six and a half I kind of heavy, right, it

650
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: feels heavy, it's heavy. I agree with you really. For me,

651
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 1: it sticks out a little bit at the over under

652
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 1: at forty four and a half. I feel like I

653
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 1: like the over they're coming in. I feel like the

654
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: Colts can score pretty much at will early on against

655
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 1: the Raiders. I feel like they do take their foot

656
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 1: off the gas a little bit, and like you said,

657
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 1: Kobe Brissett doesn't just keep piling on the points. But

658
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: I do think they get a little lackadays ago here

659
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 1: on defense. As the games go on, I see them

660
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 1: being probably a similar script to what happened against the Falcons.

661
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 1: I see them probably jumping out to a lead, taking

662
00:29:58,040 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 1: their foot off the gas a little bit. They just

663
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 1: lock lost Malie Cooker as well, so their defense takes

664
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: a little bit of a hit and the Raiders the

665
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 1: offense isn't terrible by any means. I mean, Josh Jacobs

666
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 1: certainly can can move the ball. He's not involved in

667
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 1: the passing game yet. Darren Waller is a player for sure,

668
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 1: and Tyrell Williams has been getting it done so even

669
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: without Brown, I think they can put up points. So

670
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 1: for me, the spread, it makes me a little worried.

671
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: I think, certainly the Coults are gonna win, but whether

672
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: or not they can cover nearly a touchdown spread makes

673
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: me a little nervous. But I do like as at

674
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 1: this point at forty four and a half, I like

675
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 1: the over because I think both teams can put up

676
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 1: points here.

677
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 2: I like that. I like this just real quick. I

678
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 2: like this Raiders' offense on the turf, especially because they

679
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 2: do have a ton of speed. Darren Waller is not

680
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 2: your traditional tight end. He's more of a massive wide receiver.

681
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 2: He can get down the scene than you got Tyre

682
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 2: Williams that you mentioned, and then JJ Nelson he's like

683
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 2: a world class sprinter on the outside. So yeah, the

684
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 2: over is definitely in play.

685
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they put up you know, they put up

686
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 1: some points against the Vikings. A lot of it was

687
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: garbage time, but I could see the same thing happening here.

688
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 1: So for me, the one that sticks out here is

689
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 1: more of the over at forty four and a half.

690
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Titans at the Falcons. The

691
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 1: Falcons here are laying four and a half the over

692
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 1: unders at forty six. Falcons dealing with a huge injury

693
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 1: with the loss of Can O'Neil but otherwise everybody's relatively healthy.

694
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 1: How you feeling about this? Falcons laying four and a

695
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 1: half at home over under forty six to the Titans.

696
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 2: Poor Kean O'Neil man lose this out on last year

697
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 2: and then he knows as soon as he hits the

698
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 2: turf he got an extend.

699
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: He got penalized for taking off his helmet.

700
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 2: That fifteen yard penalty for just for going on ir

701
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 2: that was his penalty. Yeah, terrible, It's just insanity. I

702
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 2: don't I'm a bit of a fence there in this game.

703
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 2: Dead number, all these dead numbers really makes me hard

704
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 2: to muster an opinion. Yep, on these games. It's a

705
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 2: lot easier when we're working closer to key numbers. I

706
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 2: feel like I can make a better gauge of it

707
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 2: public same way we're seeing fifty four percent on the Falcons.

708
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 2: My gut tells me this is one of the lowest

709
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 2: bet games on the board because it's hard to have

710
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 2: an opinion on two one and two teams that are disappointing.

711
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 2: Titans get up Week one, they crush the Browns on

712
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 2: the road, Falcons in prime time they get away with

713
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 2: that win against the Eagles, and then last week both

714
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 2: these teams just lay major duds the Titans in primetime

715
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 2: on Thursday Night Football. So I don't have much of

716
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 2: an opinion here. I think I slightly lean towards the

717
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 2: Falcons just because of what their offense can do, and

718
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 2: if there's a scenario where the Titans get into a

719
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: negative game script, I have no clue how Marcus Mariota

720
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 2: and the offense move the ball and compete. So just

721
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 2: from that factor alone, I think I shade Falcons by

722
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 2: the slimmest of march.

723
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: I can tell you how they'll compete. They'll have like

724
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 1: seven minute drives, going really really slow and having no

725
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: urgency whatsoever. Honestly, take exactly what you said, add the

726
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 1: word ditto, and now you have my analysis. This is

727
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: not a game. I completely agree. I don't think anybody's

728
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 1: going to really be in on this game. I do

729
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 1: not have a strong feeling about it. I'm a little

730
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 1: worried that the Titans get the extra rest, you know that.

731
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 1: Ordinarily I think I might lean a little bit towards

732
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 1: the Falcons, but with the extra rest, it just makes

733
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 1: it something where I want to stay away and I

734
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 1: just don't like it. I don't think it's gonna move

735
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 1: because I don't think it's gonna be bet whatsoever. So

736
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 1: if you have a feeling on this game, do whatever

737
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: you want on this one. It's a stay away for

738
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 1: me over both the over under and the spread. So

739
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 1: I'm in complete agreement with you on that one. Redskins

740
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 1: at Giants, here's a key number for you. Giants are

741
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: laying three. It could change depending on what happens. We're

742
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 1: recording this just as the start of the Bears Redskins game,

743
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: so it could change depending on what happens in the game,

744
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 1: if there's a big injury or something. But as of

745
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 1: right now, Redskins at the Giants, the Giants are laying

746
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 1: three and the over under is at forty seven and

747
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: a half yeah.

748
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 2: Betting pros, you guys are showing plus three minus one fifteen,

749
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 2: So it looks like there's some action on the Washington

750
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 2: professional football team. Honestly, I'm surprised that there wasn't more

751
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 2: of an overreaction to Danny Dimes coming in yesterday and

752
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 2: playing savior with two rushing touchdowns in that eighteen point

753
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 2: comeback against the Buccaneers. I thought that this might be

754
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 2: a half point heavy in the Giants direction, but I

755
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 2: guess books are just afraid of sharp money piling in

756
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 2: getting that free half point. This seems like a fair line. Honestly,

757
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 2: I have to see what Washington does tonight against at

758
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: home in primetime, against an offense that I personally dislike

759
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 2: in the Bears, and it's not so much about the philosophy.

760
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 2: I think Matt Nagy can be a great coach and

761
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 2: great coordinator in this league, great offensive play caller, but

762
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 2: they're just so limited in what Trubisky can do. So

763
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 2: I think there's an opportunity tonight for Washington to look

764
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 2: like a professional football team perhaps, and I think that

765
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:41,359
Speaker 2: we might see tonight's result affect this line, like if

766
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 2: the Bears go in and destroy the Washington Professional football team.

767
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,319
Speaker 2: I think we could see this line climb because there's

768
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 2: so much public sentiment right now for Danny Dimes. So

769
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 2: if you're liking the dog here, I would wait. I

770
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:55,760
Speaker 2: don't think it's going to move in the other direction.

771
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 1: So, no, the public is going to hammer the Giants

772
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 1: on this. They're going to unless the Redskins come out

773
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 1: and look amazing against the Bears, they're gonna I mean,

774
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: they're gonna hammer it. But the books know that, right,

775
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,280
Speaker 1: And so the fact that I agree with you completely,

776
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 1: the fact that it was set at three and it

777
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,439
Speaker 1: didn't you know that struck me, as man, You're gonna

778
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: get so much public money on the Giants, which makes

779
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 1: me think that that's what they want, and that's sort

780
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: of where it's gonna be.

781
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:21,720
Speaker 2: I agree.

782
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 1: If you like the Redskins in this game, you can wait.

783
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 1: It's not dropping below three. I can't imagine that. And

784
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a bit heavily on the Giants,

785
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 1: given what they were able to do yesterday, given how

786
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,240
Speaker 1: much better their offense looked, even without Saquon Barkley. Of course,

787
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 1: he's out for anywhere from four to maybe eight weeks,

788
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 1: so you know, Wayne Gollman is not going to scare

789
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: anybody there, but I don't really think it matters. It's

790
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 1: all about Jones. So I think that the Giants, even

791
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 1: with the Barkley injury, are still going to get hammered here.

792
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 1: And if you like the Redskins, you can probably wait

793
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 1: it out. Bucks at Rams, Rams laying nine and a

794
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 1: half over under at fifty one and a half, what

795
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 1: are your thoughts there?

796
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 2: Last week I put my SpongeBob SquarePants and told everybody

797
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 2: on the pod that I don't care if the Rams

798
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: are getting ninety percent of the tickets. I really like

799
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:11,760
Speaker 2: the spot against the Browns, and this line is heavy,

800
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:15,719
Speaker 2: but it's not off the look ahead A lot look

801
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 2: ahead was nine, so we're seeing a half point move here,

802
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:23,839
Speaker 2: which to me is quite surprising. The Buccaneers embarrassed at home,

803
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 2: Danny Dimes comes in destroys them, They miss a last

804
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:31,840
Speaker 2: second kick that Bruce Arians purposefully made longer by getting

805
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 2: a delay of game penalty, and then prime time supposed

806
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 2: I mean, he could just be saying that to protect

807
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 2: this guy, and then we see the Rams in primetime.

808
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 2: I mean, it wasn't pretty, but they went out and

809
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,280
Speaker 2: they took care of business on the road as massive

810
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 2: public road favorites, so they cashed. I mean the ticket.

811
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:53,839
Speaker 2: The line to cash tickets last night in Vegas must

812
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 2: have been one hundred yards long, and they don't move

813
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 2: the line at all, which is a bit weird to me.

814
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 2: I thought that this was going to be double digits,

815
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,839
Speaker 2: and dare I say, I think there is a modicum

816
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 2: of value in laying the points with the Rams here.

817
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 2: I think Jameis Winston is just that bad and the

818
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 2: backbreaker turnover is always in his pocket at any moment

819
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 2: in these games.

820
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 1: Absolutely. I mean, golf plays much better at home. It's

821
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 1: pretty clear with that. And they still have a strong defense.

822
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 1: I don't know this line feels right to me. I

823
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 1: think keeping it between nine and ten is around where

824
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 1: you want to be. Because the Bucks, I guess, I

825
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 1: don't know what to necessarily make of their defense, because

826
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 1: they looked really strong against the Panthers, and not just

827
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 1: because Newton couldn't throw the ball at all.

828
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 2: They look strong.

829
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: They've added some pieces there, Todd Bowles was doing some work,

830
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 1: but they looked terrible. They couldn't stop Daniel Jones even

831
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 1: without Saquon Barkley, So I don't really know what to

832
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 1: do with this. For me, I don't really see great

833
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:54,359
Speaker 1: value in this line. I don't think it's going to move.

834
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 1: I think it's going to either be nine or nine

835
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 1: and a half. So if it's at nine and a

836
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,280
Speaker 1: half now and you like the Bucks, I would probably

837
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:02,839
Speaker 1: get now. I can't see it hitting the key number

838
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 1: of ten or anything like that. But it's a line

839
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 1: that I don't really have a good feel for. Certainly

840
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: the Rams. You know, I expect them to win, but

841
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 1: nine and a half it's a big number, and they

842
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: haven't really been just just blowing everybody out. They won

843
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 1: the Saints game big, but that was much more on

844
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 1: the fact that Teddy Bridgewater came in and they couldn't

845
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 1: really do anything offensively. So for me, nine and a

846
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 1: half it's about right. It's a game that I don't

847
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 1: have a great feel for. You see a little value

848
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:28,399
Speaker 1: saying in the Rams just.

849
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 2: The tiniest fit. What I'm surprised is, and this is

850
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 2: more of a philosophical question, is that books, especially now

851
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 2: that there's more regulated mobile betting internet betting in the

852
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 2: United States, is one things books do is they limit

853
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 2: the amounts that sharps can bet to limit their liability.

854
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:45,919
Speaker 1: Yep.

855
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:49,800
Speaker 2: And my question is how high does this RAMS number

856
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 2: have to be and any of these numbers on the

857
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:55,439
Speaker 2: board for the public to just stop piling, Like, at

858
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 2: what number is your regular Joe that fires up his

859
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 2: app on Sunday morning fifteen minutes before kickoff trying to

860
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 2: rush bets in. At what number? Does he look at

861
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 2: the RAMS and say, oh, I'm not going to bet that,

862
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 2: or even worse, I'm going to bet the other stuff.

863
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 1: Do you think there is a number that gets a

864
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:13,400
Speaker 1: lot of public action here on the RAMS?

865
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 2: I think so, yeah. I think I think the Rams

866
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 2: are just going to the public's just going to see

867
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 2: a team that played really good and a Buccaneers team

868
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:25,799
Speaker 2: that got embarrassed by Danny Dimes, and the Rams are gonna, yeah,

869
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:29,840
Speaker 2: They're going to receive sixty seventy percent of the public bets.

870
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 1: Interesting. Okay, see, I'm not as convinced. You might be

871
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: right for sure, But in the end, although the Bucks

872
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:37,720
Speaker 1: were embarrassed, they should have won that game. And although

873
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 1: you know, they put up a ton of points and

874
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 1: Mike Evans went nuts and Winston looked much better and

875
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 1: the Rams. Although they won, they were decent play calling

876
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: away from going to overtime in that game against the

877
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 1: Browns team that has not looked good, as we discussed,

878
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 1: and that really all the money was on the Rams.

879
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:57,359
Speaker 1: I don't think people are coming out of gaming like, yeah, Glad,

880
00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 1: I bet on the Rams. I felt so comfortable that

881
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 1: entire game, even though every single person did so for me,

882
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 1: I'll be interested. I'm going to check back in this

883
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 1: on the Thursday show to see how the public and

884
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 1: how the sharps really have been coming in. But I

885
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 1: would expect it to be between fifty and sixty percent,

886
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: probably leaning slightly on the Rams, but it's an interesting question,

887
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,359
Speaker 1: so I will certainly check in on that. Let's move

888
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,000
Speaker 1: on to the Seahawks at the Cardinals. The Seahawks are

889
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 1: laying four and a half. I believe the look aheadline

890
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 1: might have been three, so it's moved a little bit

891
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 1: and the over under at forty seven. How you feel

892
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:28,439
Speaker 1: in there?

893
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're back to normal. And the Cardinals, right, they're

894
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:35,439
Speaker 2: really bad football team that should be home dogs. Last week,

895
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 2: it was just so strange to see the overreaction to

896
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 2: the Cam Newton injury. Cardinals minus three at home just

897
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 2: didn't make very much sense whatsoever, And of course they

898
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 2: lose outright to Kyle Allen and the Panthers. That being said,

899
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 2: this is where I'm more comfortable taking the Cardinals. And

900
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,919
Speaker 2: what's interesting about the Seahawks this season is that they're

901
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 2: off to a very slow start this year and it's

902
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 2: due mostly to their secondary not playing up to par.

903
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,760
Speaker 2: This week was interesting obviously with the defensive touchdowns scored

904
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 2: by the Saints, but there have been some plays in

905
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 2: the secondary. You go all the way back to Week

906
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 2: one where the Bengals, I mean, Andy Dalton just walks

907
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 2: into centry Lincoln is just slinging the ball down the field,

908
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,959
Speaker 2: and that's a Bengals offense that coming out of that game,

909
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:26,839
Speaker 2: I thought I had to make some adjustments. I thought

910
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 2: Zach Taylor, you know, was the real member of that

911
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 2: Sean McVay coaching tree. I thought the Bengals were gonna

912
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 2: come out and move the rock and they have not

913
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:38,360
Speaker 2: been able to do anything since then. And if the

914
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 2: Seahawks have this poor of a secondary, being four and

915
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 2: a half point favorites on the road against a team

916
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 2: like the Cardinals that are going to go out and

917
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,759
Speaker 2: throw forty or fifty times. It's going to make this

918
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 2: game a bit more competitive. This last week is interesting, Kyler.

919
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 2: For forty three attempts to only have one hundred and

920
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 2: seventy nine yards four yards in an attempt is pretty horrid,

921
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 2: to say the least. But I think in the long run,

922
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,399
Speaker 2: the more they press the edges, the more they throw

923
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 2: with that type of frequency. I mean, obviously just the

924
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 2: more points they're going to score. And I just think

925
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 2: four and a half is way too much for the

926
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 2: Hawks to be laying in the spot.

927
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, it strikes me as high, although I'm not exactly

928
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 1: sure I'd feel comfortable necessarily going in on the Cardinals here.

929
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 1: I don't know which way this is going to move

930
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,479
Speaker 1: from now. As I said, it's moved a bit since

931
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:22,439
Speaker 1: it opened. I mean, the Seahawks, you're right, and they've

932
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 1: been playing a ton of base defense. They basically they

933
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:26,799
Speaker 1: know their secondary is sort of their weakness, and they're

934
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 1: just basically like, we're selling out to stop the run.

935
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 1: We're leaving all our linebackers out there, and we'll see

936
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 1: what you can do, and if you can beat us

937
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:34,839
Speaker 1: with the pass, go ahead. And they have been their

938
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 1: defense is not nearly as strong as it once was.

939
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 1: But they're coming off a kind of an embarrassing loss here,

940
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: and they're gonna be mad, and they're coming in against

941
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 1: a Cardinals team that again has no secondary whatsoever. They're

942
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:49,320
Speaker 1: missing both their top two cornerbacks. And I think Murray

943
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 1: has followed the same script where he comes out and

944
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,879
Speaker 1: he looks really good because it's all been scripted for him,

945
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 1: and once you get past the first fifteen or sixteen

946
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: or seventeen plays that have been scripted for him, he

947
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:02,320
Speaker 1: just kind of loses it and he just is running

948
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:04,399
Speaker 1: around as he can be. The four and a half

949
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 1: makes me a little nervous. I agree with you. It's

950
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 1: not a game that I have a good feel for.

951
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:08,839
Speaker 1: Sounds like you see a little bit of value right

952
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:11,240
Speaker 1: now in the Cardinals. For me, it's not something where

953
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 1: I want to get close to. And I think this

954
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 1: line could move. I think the public's going to come

955
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 1: in a little heavier on the Seahawks. I think that

956
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 1: they probably like them, and they're going to buy the hole.

957
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: They're going to be mad narrative, and the Cardinals look terrible.

958
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 1: So my guess is if it moves at all, it's

959
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 1: going to move to five, but I think four and

960
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:29,360
Speaker 1: a half is around where you're going to be sitting,

961
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 1: and I don't have a great feel for it based

962
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 1: on how these two teams have played so far.

963
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm seeing eighty three percent on the Hawks. The

964
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 2: Betting Pros dash says minus one fifteen minus one eleven

965
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:42,280
Speaker 2: on the Hawks, So it's definitely leaning in that direction.

966
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 2: So if you like me like the Cardinals, then yeah,

967
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 2: perhaps waiting is the right tactic, even though, like we

968
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 2: said earlier, four and a half to five dead numbers.

969
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 2: But still those half point values can really help out

970
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 2: in the long rue. Yep. Absolutely.

971
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 1: Now, before we finish up with our last few games,

972
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 1: I wanted to remind everyone about our septem contest to

973
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 1: be entered. All you need to do is leave a

974
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,399
Speaker 1: review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send

975
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 1: a screenshot of your review to contest at bettingpros dot com.

976
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,319
Speaker 1: We're giving away and autographed Alvin Kamara helmet. It takes

977
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 1: two seconds, you support the show, and you've got a

978
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 1: great chance to win an autographed helmet, so don't waste time.

979
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the vikings that the Bears.

980
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 1: The Bears here are laying two and a half and

981
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 1: the over under is at a minuscule thirty nine. The

982
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 1: Bears are playing right now. Obviously could change, but initial

983
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 1: thoughts on that you talked about.

984
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 2: Jared Goff just now, and one of the philosophies that

985
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 2: we lean on at Gridiron Gamble is that bad quarterbacks

986
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 2: really show home road splits, and Kirk Cousins objectively bad quarterback.

987
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 2: We've seen two weeks where the Vikings get out into

988
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 2: great positive script at home in the Dome, they get

989
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:55,280
Speaker 2: the defense going, and they get to neuter Kirk Cousins

990
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 2: as much as possible. He had nine pass attempts at

991
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 2: that first game, even yesterday twenty one attempts. And this

992
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 2: is the type of football that the Minnesota Vikings want

993
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 2: to play. They want to get out, get the lead,

994
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 2: and run the football well. At two and a half

995
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:15,280
Speaker 2: and maybe even three. If the Bears win convincingly tonight,

996
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 2: that means this game is probably going to be more neutral,

997
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 2: which means Kirk Cousins is probably gonna have to throw

998
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 2: the ball more frequently, and on the road at Chicago,

999
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 2: that's not a good equation for Minnesota. So short of

1000
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 2: a field goal. I definitely have to lean for the

1001
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 2: Bears here, and unfortunately I don't know how long we're

1002
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 2: gonna get it short of this number. But at this

1003
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 2: time I like the minus two and a half.

1004
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. I don't love it. I

1005
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:47,320
Speaker 1: don't love it just because Man Trubisky has been awful.

1006
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:51,320
Speaker 1: Just watching him. Hopefully he shows something tonight while we're recording,

1007
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:54,760
Speaker 1: but he has just been terrible. He looks like he's regressed.

1008
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:57,239
Speaker 1: But that defense, I agree. I mean, the Vikings have

1009
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 1: a pretty simple formula. They want to run it and

1010
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 1: they've got a one full zone blocking scheme. They've got

1011
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 1: one of the best running backs in football. It's been

1012
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 1: highly successful. They want to pick their spots to throw it.

1013
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 1: I think ideally they want cousins at about twenty pass attempts,

1014
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 1: but you can see this being defensive.

1015
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:12,720
Speaker 2: Shrugt.

1016
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 1: Look the over under at thirty nine. I'm not really sure,

1017
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 1: you know, I kind of lean the under at this point.

1018
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 1: I mean, I'd have to take a closer look a

1019
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 1: little bit and see how the Bears look tonight, but

1020
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 1: I think it is going to be kind of a

1021
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:26,759
Speaker 1: close game. But I would expect in the end the

1022
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 1: Bears to win it because they're home, and since it's

1023
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 1: under the key number of three, I two would lean Bears,

1024
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 1: but I'm not sure I feel overly strongly about just

1025
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 1: because I need to see it. Hopefully, when I go

1026
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 1: back and watch Monday night's game, Trubisky looks better, but

1027
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:43,799
Speaker 1: he's just looked so terrible that it's tough to see

1028
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 1: them putting up points as well. But I do see

1029
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:49,239
Speaker 1: a close game here, low scoring and probably the Bears

1030
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 1: eating out, which is why would lean the Bears to it,

1031
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 1: Because once it's below three, it doesn't really matter all

1032
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:56,319
Speaker 1: that much in the end, So I too, like you,

1033
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 1: lean Bears two and a half. Jaguars at Broncos. Bronco's

1034
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 1: here laying three and the over under is at thirty

1035
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I don't think this has moved

1036
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 1: since I look aheadline unless I missed it. So what

1037
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:05,320
Speaker 1: are your thoughts?

1038
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:08,359
Speaker 2: There another game where I thought the market was going

1039
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:12,799
Speaker 2: to address the love affair for a new quarterback. I

1040
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,439
Speaker 2: don't know how many group text im in where there's

1041
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:20,360
Speaker 2: pictures of Gardner Minshew in Jeort's Gardner Minshew wearing some

1042
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 2: crazy Washington state shirt, the mustache, the headband, and the

1043
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 2: public is showing this in their betting batterns. Currently seventy

1044
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,800
Speaker 2: four percent of the bets are on the Jags plus

1045
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 2: three at Mile High. I really thought that they were

1046
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 2: going to open this up at minus two and a

1047
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 2: half and not give the public that full three. But

1048
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 2: despite all of that public action, Broncos minus three is

1049
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 2: showing minus one fifteen right now in the betting pros portal.

1050
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:50,720
Speaker 2: I think they're going to be the right side. Look,

1051
00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 2: I don't love Joe Flacco. I think this offense is

1052
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 2: about as bad as you can get. But I do

1053
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 2: love this Broncos defense. And while the first three weeks

1054
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 2: have not been great for Chub and Miller, their names

1055
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 2: have not been called. I have to believe that regression

1056
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 2: is Regression is coming for a Vic Fangiou defense, and

1057
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:13,480
Speaker 2: one of the best medicines that could be coming in

1058
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:18,280
Speaker 2: to remedy that is a backup quarterback on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

1059
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 2: So I think the Broncos minus three is the right

1060
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 2: side here. I'm not in love with it, but I

1061
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 2: definitely think that this line could maybe be three and

1062
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 2: a half. It's just a tough place to play, and

1063
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 2: I still believe in fanjo and how organized this defense

1064
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:35,279
Speaker 2: can be.

1065
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 1: I completely agree that I was shocked that it didn't

1066
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:41,919
Speaker 1: open below three, because again, yeah, the public's is gonna

1067
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 1: hammer the Jaguars right now. Gardner Minshew is basically a

1068
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: walking meme and the public loves it. Just to look

1069
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:51,759
Speaker 1: at him, he's been exciting. I kind of like what

1070
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 1: I see from him. Generally. I agree that I like

1071
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 1: the Broncos side of this right now. It makes me

1072
00:48:57,120 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 1: a little nervous that the Jaguars get the minibi, you know,

1073
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 1: because they played on Thursday. The extra rest, the extra

1074
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 1: time to game plan. For me, really, even though it

1075
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:08,279
Speaker 1: is minuscule, it might be the lowest over under that

1076
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 1: we've seen all year at thirty seven and a half.

1077
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 1: I still like the under on this one for basically

1078
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 1: all the reasons that you say. The Jaguars defense looked

1079
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:18,239
Speaker 1: much better against the Titans. That's not saying all that

1080
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:21,359
Speaker 1: much against the Marcus Mariota led offense, but they did

1081
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:24,320
Speaker 1: look good. Jalen Ramsey apparently called the sick to practice today,

1082
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 1: so I don't know whether or not there's something If

1083
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:29,919
Speaker 1: he really has the flu, that's fine. Hopefully he'll be fine.

1084
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 1: If he's sort of doing something with his trades and

1085
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:33,880
Speaker 1: he's out of there, then that would be problematic. But

1086
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:37,560
Speaker 1: their defense looked really good. The Broncos defense looks fine passball.

1087
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 1: They've had some tough matchups. I think at home they're

1088
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:41,279
Speaker 1: going to be good. So even at the minuscule number

1089
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 1: of thirty seven and a half, I like the under

1090
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:45,799
Speaker 1: as an initial read, and I agree if I'm forced

1091
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 1: to pick a side here, I don't love it like you,

1092
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 1: but I would I would lean towards the Broncos minus three.

1093
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:52,759
Speaker 1: This next one is a little surprising to me. This

1094
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 1: is the Cowboys at the Saints right now. The Cowboys

1095
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 1: on ours are laying two and a half, and I

1096
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 1: think the look aheadline three. So I am shocked by

1097
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:05,120
Speaker 1: that over under was forty five and a half. I

1098
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:07,720
Speaker 1: expected the line because the Cowboys are such a public

1099
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:12,600
Speaker 1: team and they wound up beating the Dolphins handily in

1100
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:15,120
Speaker 1: the end, that the spread would move the other directions.

1101
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:16,799
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised to drop to two and a half.

1102
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 1: What's your thoughts on.

1103
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 2: This interesting I think I was very proud of how

1104
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:26,400
Speaker 2: the market reacted to the Breeze injury last week. In

1105
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 2: my initial capping, I thought the Hawks were going to

1106
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 2: be pretty large favorites in that game. But just like

1107
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 2: when the Colts lost luck, I believe their Week one

1108
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 2: game against the Chargers, the line only moved three points.

1109
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:42,279
Speaker 2: We saw the same move last week when Breeze went down,

1110
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 2: which traditionally, I feel like historically and even in recent history,

1111
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:49,320
Speaker 2: we see quarterbacks go out. I mean even with the

1112
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 2: Steelers we saw a massive move from Big Ben to Rudolph.

1113
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 2: This line only moved three points when Breeze went out.

1114
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 2: And the Saints, like I said, they scored two defensive touchdowns,

1115
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 2: but they kind of showed out Teddy Bridgewater looked competent.

1116
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:06,760
Speaker 2: You being a Jets fan, you know, we watched every

1117
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:09,439
Speaker 2: snap last year of Teddy two gloves in the Green

1118
00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 2: and white, and he looked like a very competent player.

1119
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:15,759
Speaker 2: I was a bit sad to see him go to

1120
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:18,879
Speaker 2: New Orleans. So we got Luke falk Man, I mean

1121
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 2: we did, We did Getawazi States on Luke falk I

1122
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 2: was kind of interested that this line didn't move a

1123
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:32,799
Speaker 2: little more aggressively in the Saints direction, because still while

1124
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:35,440
Speaker 2: the Cowboys are a public team. The Saints are just

1125
00:51:35,520 --> 00:51:38,360
Speaker 2: as public as a side, and they've they've printed for

1126
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:41,759
Speaker 2: the public over these these I mean this decade for

1127
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 2: the most part with Sean Payton. So yeah, I thought

1128
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,960
Speaker 2: this game would be closer, a little closer to pick.

1129
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:53,239
Speaker 2: But I understand why given up the look aheadline, like

1130
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:56,000
Speaker 2: you said, was three. I understand why the line didn't

1131
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 2: move more towards the equal number. But I'd like to

1132
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:02,399
Speaker 2: hear you must love the Cowboys than if you're getting

1133
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 2: than if you're giving less than a few.

1134
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:07,880
Speaker 1: I don't love the Cowboys necessarily. I lean towards the Cowboys,

1135
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 1: I really do, But in the end, I think I

1136
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:14,240
Speaker 1: was just more surprised. It's not necessarily what I think

1137
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,399
Speaker 1: it should be. I just think when you're looking at

1138
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 1: how it's going to be, bet I would have expected.

1139
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:21,799
Speaker 1: Now that you know they're in New Orleans, that is

1140
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 1: a very, very difficult place to play. The Cowboys are

1141
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 1: still down Michael Gallup, but they don't really need that

1142
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 1: right now. They're clicking on all cylinders. Kellen Moore led

1143
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 1: offense is doing great, and look, you give Sean Payton

1144
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:36,759
Speaker 1: a week to prepare for anybody, and that's why I

1145
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 1: picked the Saints with the four and a half against

1146
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 1: the Seahawks on last Thursday. But at this point, I

1147
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't have a strong lean on it.

1148
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 1: I'm just I'm very surprised that money isn't coming in

1149
00:52:48,680 --> 00:52:51,360
Speaker 1: heavily on the Cowboys. I think the number of about

1150
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:53,319
Speaker 1: three is about right. I don't know if I take

1151
00:52:53,360 --> 00:52:57,120
Speaker 1: it necessarily. Again, I lean Cowboys, but in New Orleans

1152
00:52:57,120 --> 00:52:58,759
Speaker 1: it's tough, and forty five and a half seems like

1153
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 1: the right thing for me. But for right now, I

1154
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,319
Speaker 1: lean Cowboys. But you know, really, for me, it's much

1155
00:53:03,360 --> 00:53:05,520
Speaker 1: more about what I expected to see the number at,

1156
00:53:05,520 --> 00:53:07,879
Speaker 1: and I expected to see the number closer to like four.

1157
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:10,839
Speaker 1: So we'll see where it ends up. But in the end,

1158
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 1: it's probably going to be right around three. And right

1159
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:14,759
Speaker 1: now again it's at two and a half and it's

1160
00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:17,319
Speaker 1: moved down from three. Let's get to our last game here,

1161
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 1: Bengals at the Steelers. Steelers laying four, the over under

1162
00:53:21,040 --> 00:53:23,120
Speaker 1: is at forty three and a half. How do you

1163
00:53:23,120 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 1: feel about that?

1164
00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 2: The battle of zero to three teams? You're welcome, espn

1165
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 2: uh Man Mason Rudolph stunk yesterday and as someone who

1166
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:36,280
Speaker 2: had the Steelers on their Super Contest card. I wanted

1167
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 2: to feel good about that game, and I'm obviously happy

1168
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:43,279
Speaker 2: that we did get the cover. But Steelers offense was

1169
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:47,880
Speaker 2: about as bad as it gets. And credit to the

1170
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 2: Niners defense. They put a lot of both free agency

1171
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:54,880
Speaker 2: and draft capital into their defensive line and they're starting

1172
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:57,920
Speaker 2: to get after it, especially against a very good front

1173
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 2: five from the Steelers. But I was very unimpressed from

1174
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:06,439
Speaker 2: what I saw about Mason Rudolph and perhaps the quote

1175
00:54:06,480 --> 00:54:09,480
Speaker 2: unquote overreaction that I noted about Big Ben might have

1176
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:12,719
Speaker 2: been warranted, which again is something that Rufus pointed out

1177
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 2: last week. Sixty percent on the Steelers. The Bengals, man,

1178
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 2: are they a bad team, but but they showed that

1179
00:54:22,600 --> 00:54:26,759
Speaker 2: they're competitive. They could have easily laid down against the

1180
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:29,799
Speaker 2: Bills this week. The Bills were kind of destroying them

1181
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,560
Speaker 2: in the trenches despite the score being low, and the

1182
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 2: Bengals found a way to claw back, fight back into

1183
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 2: this game. And I don't know, I don't think we

1184
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 2: should just be giving Mason Rudolph a point against another

1185
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:48,800
Speaker 2: NFL team at this time. So me personally, I think

1186
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 2: the four is a little bit heavy and I think

1187
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 2: I have to lean Bengals.

1188
00:54:52,920 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 1: In this agree. I lean towards the Bengals at this point.

1189
00:54:57,040 --> 00:54:59,080
Speaker 1: If it stays at four, I could see it being

1190
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 1: one of my super contests. And I looked into this

1191
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:04,120
Speaker 1: because the Bengals getting six from the Bills was one

1192
00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:06,799
Speaker 1: of my super contest picks from this past week, and

1193
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 1: I looked into it before. I can't remember what the

1194
00:55:09,480 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 1: exact number was, but the Bengals have been very solid

1195
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:15,239
Speaker 1: against the spread over the last several years. I can't

1196
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:17,960
Speaker 1: remember exactly what the number was, but they generally have

1197
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 1: played well on the road. I don't know why necessarily

1198
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:23,200
Speaker 1: getting away from Cincinnati, but they are usually good for

1199
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:26,279
Speaker 1: a cover and I agree. I mean, Mason Rudolf, you

1200
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 1: pointed out the forty nine ers have a surprisingly solid defense,

1201
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 1: so I want to give them some credit here. But

1202
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:35,040
Speaker 1: I was very disappointed watching that effort. And again one

1203
00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:37,320
Speaker 1: of the touchdowns was just a long catch and run

1204
00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 1: that Juju Smith Schuster broke off, so he was not

1205
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 1: in any way impressed in that game. I see this

1206
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:46,280
Speaker 1: as being a three point game either way, so it's

1207
00:55:46,360 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 1: come down. So with that in mind, I like the Bengals.

1208
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:51,520
Speaker 1: It is a divisional game. You never know what's going

1209
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:53,480
Speaker 1: to happen. Those are always a little scary to bet.

1210
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:55,400
Speaker 1: But the forty three and a half that strikes me

1211
00:55:55,480 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 1: is about right. But I agree with you that I

1212
00:55:57,600 --> 00:56:00,040
Speaker 1: leaned toward the Bengals here because I expect this to

1213
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 1: be a game that's going to be decided by three points,

1214
00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:04,839
Speaker 1: so I will gladly take the four, so I don't

1215
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 1: expect it to move again. I think you mentioned that

1216
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:09,759
Speaker 1: the public is a little bit shade on the side

1217
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 1: of the Steelers at this point. I think you said

1218
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 1: sixty percent, and I would expect that to continue, So

1219
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 1: I think if you like the Bengals, there's no rush

1220
00:56:16,120 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 1: on it. Maybe it gets to four and a half,

1221
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 1: but in the end I agree that that's that's where

1222
00:56:21,160 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 1: i'd probably lean like you.

1223
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:25,120
Speaker 2: I actually think we should be pulling the trigger now

1224
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:29,279
Speaker 2: on the Vocals. It's minus one seventeen, and I think

1225
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:32,560
Speaker 2: the sharp money will be on Cincinnati, so I do

1226
00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:34,719
Speaker 2: think we could see a slight reverse line move off

1227
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:36,319
Speaker 2: of that four to three and a half, So all right,

1228
00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:37,800
Speaker 2: it might be some value in grab.

1229
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:39,680
Speaker 1: All right, you heard it. Then with Rich we both

1230
00:56:39,719 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 1: like that game, so if you like it, go ahead

1231
00:56:41,120 --> 00:56:42,960
Speaker 1: and move now. Well, that is going to do it

1232
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 1: for today's show. Buddy, it was great having you on.

1233
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 1: I hope we can do it again during the season. Yeah,

1234
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:50,120
Speaker 1: pleasure would love to great. Thanks again to the sponsor

1235
00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:52,759
Speaker 1: of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet

1236
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:55,600
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1237
00:56:55,600 --> 00:56:57,959
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1238
00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:00,800
Speaker 1: hundred dollars. Don't forget to rate and review the podcast

1239
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 1: and send a screenshot of that review to contest at

1240
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:05,800
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com for your chance to win a signed

1241
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:08,440
Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara helmet. We'll be back later this week giving

1242
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:10,560
Speaker 1: some of our best bets for Week four and look

1243
00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:12,600
Speaker 1: to keep building on our winning street. I'll talk to

1244
00:57:12,600 --> 00:57:12,879
Speaker 1: you then.