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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloembag

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Speaker 1: Day Bake You podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify

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Speaker 1: or wherever you listen. It's Monday, the third of March.

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Speaker 1: Here in London. I'm Caroline Hepka. Coming up today, Ukraine's

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Speaker 1: European allies race to get Zelinsky back to the table

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Speaker 1: with Trump after Friday's public bust up. The US is

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Speaker 1: preparing to implement a barrage of tariffs on Canada, Mexico

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Speaker 1: and China in less than twenty four hours time. Plus

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Speaker 1: the Oscars Go Indy Anora wins five awards, The brutalist

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Speaker 1: Adrian Brody gets Best Actor. Zoe Saldania wins Best Supporting

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Speaker 1: Actress for Amelia Perez. Let's start with a roundup of

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Speaker 1: our top stories. Two days after Zelinski and Trump's Oval

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Speaker 1: Office blow up, European leaders are still scrambling to repair

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Speaker 1: the damage. On Sunday, UK prim and There's a Kiss.

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Speaker 1: Starmer and other European leaders use the Security Summit in

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Speaker 1: London to demonstrate broad support for Ukraine. Behind the scenes, though,

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Speaker 1: they were pushing to get Vladimir Zelenski back to the

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Speaker 1: table with President Donald Trump. Speaking after the summit, Starmer

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Speaker 1: said the UK and France are now working on a

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Speaker 1: plan to secure Ukraine after any US broken ceasefire.

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Speaker 2: So we agreed some important steps today. First, we will

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Speaker 2: keep the military aid flowing and keep increasing the economic

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Speaker 2: pressure on Russia to strengthen Ukraine now. Second, we agreed

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Speaker 2: that any lasting piece must ensure Ukraine's sovereignty and security,

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Speaker 2: and Ukraine must be at the table. Third, in the

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Speaker 2: event of a piece deal, we will keep boosting Ukraine's

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Speaker 2: own defensive capabilities to deter any future invasion. Fourth, we

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Speaker 2: will go further develop a coalition of the willing to

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Speaker 2: defend a deal in Ukraine and to guarantee the peace.

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Speaker 2: Not every nation will feel able to contribute, but that

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Speaker 2: can't mean that we sit back.

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Speaker 1: Starmer's comments came as French President Demander and Macon said

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Speaker 1: the two leaders are working on a plan to secure

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Speaker 1: a one month truce in Ukraine. In an interview with

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Speaker 1: La Figaro newspaper, Macwan said the potential truce would include

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Speaker 1: ground and maritime operations, as well as energy infrastructure. He

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Speaker 1: added that soldiers would only be deployed on the ground

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Speaker 1: in a second phase, with quote No European troops on

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian soil in the coming weeks. Mending ties between Trump

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Speaker 1: and Zelenski following their unprecedented public row won't be easy.

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Speaker 1: While European allies have rushed to express support for the

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Speaker 1: wartorn country's leader, the US has made it clear it

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Speaker 1: wants a public apology. Here's what President Trump's Director of

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Speaker 1: National Intelligence Tulsey Gabbard told Fox News Sunday.

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Speaker 3: There's there's going to have to be a rebuilding of

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Speaker 3: any kind of interest in good faith negotiations. I think

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Speaker 3: before President Trump is going to be willing to re

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Speaker 3: engage on this.

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Speaker 1: Gabbard's comments on Fox News were echoed by US Secretive

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Speaker 1: of State Marco Rubio, who said Zelenski needs to come

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Speaker 1: to the quote realization that America is trying to help. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian President Vlodomir Zelensky says that he's willing to meet

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump if the US president invites him again. Here's

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Speaker 1: what he said in response to a question from the

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Speaker 1: BBC after attending that security summit in London.

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Speaker 4: Perhaps there is a need to analyze certain things, but.

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Speaker 5: I would pould Ukraine numbers heard it was very important Krasian.

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Speaker 1: Speaking Varra translators. Zelensky added that Ukraine is still ready

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Speaker 1: to sign the natural resources deal with the US was

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Speaker 1: put on hold last week. Now, in less than twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours, the US is poised to put a twenty

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Speaker 1: five percent tariff for most imports from Canada and Mexico

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Speaker 1: and to double the levee on China. The trade changes

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Speaker 1: come into force tomorrow and they apply to roughly one

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Speaker 1: and a half trillion dollars worth of imports. COMMOS Secretary

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Speaker 1: Howard Lutneck says President Trump may yet change his mind

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Speaker 1: on Mexico and Canada.

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Speaker 6: They have done a lot, so he's sort of thinking

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Speaker 6: about right now how exactly he wants to play with

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Speaker 6: Mexico and Canada, and that is a fluid situation. There

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Speaker 6: are going to be tariffs on Tuesday on Mexico and Canada.

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Speaker 6: Exactly what they are. We're going to leave that for

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Speaker 6: the President and his team to negotiate, and obviously I'm

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Speaker 6: talking to.

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Speaker 1: Him all the time, lot Nick. They're speaking to Fox

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Speaker 1: News Sunday's Morning Futures program. Champs Team says the tariff's

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Speaker 1: a tool to change other countries' policies on migrants and

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Speaker 1: drug trafficking. They also threaten to reignite inflation and to

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Speaker 1: throw North American supply chains into disarray. The US tariffs

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Speaker 1: on China are set to come into force right as

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Speaker 1: President shi Jinping hosts the country's National People's Congress. China's

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Speaker 1: strategic and economic outlook are expected to be announced at

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Speaker 1: the event, and many expect major stimulus plans. Blue Beg's

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Speaker 1: China correspondent mid min Low is also watching for how

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Speaker 1: officials respond to the US tariffs.

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Speaker 4: You've got to wonder how long Beijing's patients will last,

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Speaker 4: because at some point, if they feel that President Trump

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Speaker 4: is not negotiating on good faith, they might shift towards

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Speaker 4: a more aggressive and assertive stance as well.

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Speaker 1: Mid min Low adding that China has so far seen

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Speaker 1: a mixed economic picture this year. Although deep seeks Ai

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Speaker 1: breakthrough has driven a major rally in Chinese equities, household

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Speaker 1: spending has been stubbornly weak due to a real estate slump.

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Speaker 1: To other news now, former Barklay's chief Jess Staley is

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Speaker 1: beginning a legal showdown today over his friendship with the

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Speaker 1: late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The proceedings could draw in

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Speaker 1: some of the most recognizable names in the city of London. Bloobooks,

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Speaker 1: Tivat Adebaya has more.

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Speaker 7: Today, Jeff Staley will go to court to challenge a

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Speaker 7: lifetime ban from the UK finance industry and findings that

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Speaker 7: he recklessly misled regulators about his links to Epstein. It

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Speaker 7: will be the former CEO's first public testimony about the

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Speaker 7: event since his resignation in twenty twenty one. Up to

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Speaker 7: this point, Staley has maintained he cut direct contact with

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Speaker 7: the financier before taking his post. Witnesses who could be

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Speaker 7: called by the Financial Conduct Authority over the four week

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Speaker 7: trial include some of the sector's most eminent figures. Bank

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Speaker 7: of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Berklay's chairman Nigel Higgins.

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Speaker 7: The case is the most high profile legal battle between

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Speaker 7: the watchdog and any executive in recent years in London.

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Speaker 7: To You at a Baio, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: And lastly, Anora has dominated the ninety seventh Academy Awards,

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Speaker 1: winning five honors, including Best Picture of the Film Star

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Speaker 1: Mickey Madison took home the prestigious Best Leading Actress award

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Speaker 1: and thanked Sean Baker during her speech who won, of course,

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Speaker 1: the Best Director prize for his work on that film.

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Speaker 8: This is a dream come true. I'm probably going to

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Speaker 8: wake up tomorrow. Thank you so much, Sashan. I adore you.

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Speaker 8: This is my this is our because of you. Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Alongside Madison, Adrian Brody picked up his second career oscar

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Speaker 1: scooping the Best Leading Actor title for his role in

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Speaker 1: The Brutalist. Brodie's win comes twenty one years after first

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Speaker 1: being awarded the honor for his work on the two

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Speaker 1: thousand and three film The Pianist. So those are some

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Speaker 1: of our top stories for you this morning. Let's get

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Speaker 1: to the markets right now. Defense spending in Europe, tariffs

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Speaker 1: from the US, they are the key market drivers today.

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Speaker 1: Your stocks, fifty futures right now are jumping higher seven

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Speaker 1: tenths of one percent. The euro is leading g ten

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Speaker 1: FX gains at the euro against the dollar up this

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Speaker 1: morning four tenths of one percent. Futures gapping sharply lower.

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Speaker 1: Does point to a five basis points thereabout rise in

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Speaker 1: ten year yields at the open. The expectation of additional

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Speaker 1: defense spending across Europe. Bitcoin surge late on Sunday cross

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Speaker 1: ninety five thousand dollars after comments from President Trump, but

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Speaker 1: the trade has softened this morning, so currently bitcoin just

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Speaker 1: above ninety three thousand dollars. Asian equities are also gaining,

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Speaker 1: the NICKK two two five the outstanding gain up one

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Speaker 1: point seven percent. US stop futures are higher, Japan's thirty

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Speaker 1: year bond yield hitting its highest level since two thousand

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Speaker 1: and eight. Those are the markets, so right now, let's

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Speaker 1: talk about our major story this morning. So European leaders

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Speaker 1: scrambling to repair relations between President Donald Trump and President

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Speaker 1: Vlodomis Zelenski after that disastrous Oval office clash, to secure

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Speaker 1: Ukraine with a coalition of the willing, and to bolster

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Speaker 1: a European defense amid fears of an American pullback. Joining

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Speaker 1: me now this morning to discuss is Bloomberg's UK correspondent

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Speaker 1: Lizzie Burden and our senior editor Bill Fairies. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: both of you. Thank you for being with me. Lizzie,

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Speaker 1: Can I just start with you if we think about

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Speaker 1: what happened on Friday, the Zelenski Trump press conference that

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Speaker 1: was really quite disastrous, the London summit yesterday with all

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Speaker 1: of those European leaders gathering here where do you think

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Speaker 1: that leaves peace in Ukraine now?

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Speaker 9: Well, Frankly, Caroline, that press conference on Friday couldn't have

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Speaker 9: gone any worse. So the UK and France are now

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Speaker 9: working on a plan to stop the fighting, which they'll

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Speaker 9: then discuss with the US. You mentioned earlier. Tulsy Gabbard,

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Speaker 9: the US Director of National Intelligence, to suggest said that

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Speaker 9: Vladimir Lensky would need to apologize publicly to President Trump

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Speaker 9: if he wants the relationship to move forward. Zelenski, for

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Speaker 9: his part, yesterday signaled that he would meet Trump if

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Speaker 9: he were invited back, and over the weekend, Kiirs Starmer Francis,

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Speaker 9: Emmanuel Macont Italy and Georgia Maloney have been trying to

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Speaker 9: get the two men back to the table because they

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Speaker 9: still believe there's a narrow path to get in the

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Speaker 9: minerals deal over the line. Macon told La figarone newspaper

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Speaker 9: that some nations want a one month truce in Ukraine

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Speaker 9: so that the talks about peacekeeping can play out. And

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Speaker 9: indeed it does come back to whether the US will

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Speaker 9: provide this security backstop, because when Starma is in Washington,

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Speaker 9: all Trump would say is that he'll always be there

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Speaker 9: for British troops if needed. But as you know, under

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Speaker 9: NATO Article five, members only commit to backing each other

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Speaker 9: when one of their territories is attacked, not when a

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Speaker 9: NATO member is backing a NONNATO member. So if British

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Speaker 9: troops are peacekeeping in Ukraine, will the US actually be there?

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Speaker 9: That is the ultimate point that Vladimir Putin is testing,

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Speaker 9: and we still don't have an answer, the NATO Secretary

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Speaker 9: General Mark Rutter said yesterday on the way out of

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Speaker 9: the London meeting. The debate is ongoing. Starmer, though you

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Speaker 9: said yesterday, he's clear Trump does want a lasting piece,

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Speaker 9: and that backstop is the definition of a lasting piece,

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Speaker 9: at least in Ukraine's mind Bill.

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Speaker 1: The oval Offish class really shocked Europe. How big is

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Speaker 1: the rift you think between Europe and the US?

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Speaker 10: Now, oh, it's huge, I think you know, if you

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Speaker 10: go back to our mindset. Last week, Zelenski was going

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Speaker 10: to Washington to sign this minerals agreement, which was really

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Speaker 10: a way of keeping Ukraine in the conversation, keeping them

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Speaker 10: near the negotiating table. So with the collapse everything that

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Speaker 10: we saw on Friday, that deal is at least currently off,

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Speaker 10: and I think the Trump administration is going to say,

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Speaker 10: if we're going to reach a deal, now, you're going

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Speaker 10: to have to agree to even more so as perhaps

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Speaker 10: unappealing as that minerals agreement may have seemed to Ukraine,

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Speaker 10: I think that's just going to be an initial buy

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Speaker 10: into really getting them closer to the negotiating table as

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Speaker 10: the US tries to accelerate these talks. I think it's

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Speaker 10: I think the hurdle for Ukraine has gotten higher based

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Speaker 10: on what we saw.

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Speaker 1: Friday, and this, of course, as person Trump is preparing

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Speaker 1: to land a barrage of tariffs. How do you think Canada,

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Speaker 1: Mexico and China will respond to me? Will they also

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Speaker 1: be thinking about what is going on with Ukraine in

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Speaker 1: how they attempt to have negotiations. Could there be another delay?

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Speaker 10: I think, you know, the answer to the short answer

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Speaker 10: is yes to all of that. I think there could

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Speaker 10: be another delay. We've seen Mexico extraditing car drug cartel

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Speaker 10: leaders to the United States in the last few days,

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Speaker 10: potentially as a way of trying to show that they're

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Speaker 10: working on these fentanyl and drug trafficking issues. The President

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Speaker 10: is focused on. You know, we've still got twenty four

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Speaker 10: hours more or less in US time. So there certainly

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Speaker 10: could be a deal. And I do think, like you know, China, Mexico, Canada,

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Speaker 10: I think everyone is trying to absorb how quickly US

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Speaker 10: policy has shifted since Donald Trump took off UE on

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Speaker 10: January twentieth. I think they, you know, some will tariffs

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Speaker 10: end up being a negotiating tactic when it comes to

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Speaker 10: helping providing support for Ukraine. It's all in the realm

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Speaker 10: of possibility. One thing from the US administration that has

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Speaker 10: been clear though, we heard Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying

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Speaker 10: there will be tariffs of some sort. Now it doesn't

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Speaker 10: necessarily mean we'll get twenty five percent like the President

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Speaker 10: has initially promised. But I would be very surprised if

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Speaker 10: they just kicked the can another thirty days down the

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Speaker 10: road without doing anything.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So that's on Tarais Lizzie returning to the point then,

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Speaker 1: because these things are happening simultaneously, what about the UK's

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Speaker 1: defense role when it comes to Ukraine and kind of

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Speaker 1: peace in Europe and the costs? How are we thinking

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Speaker 1: about that now?

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Speaker 9: So Kirs Darmas talked about a coalition of the willing

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Speaker 9: working out how Europe can defend itself without the US,

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Speaker 9: how Europe can raise defense spending fast without waiting for

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Speaker 9: every nation to.

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Speaker 2: Get on board.

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Speaker 9: So reasserting leadership in Europe post Brexit and offering to

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Speaker 9: be a bridge to Donald Trump for the rest of

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Speaker 9: Europe's part. Of course, we look ahead to that European

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Speaker 9: Council meeting in Brussels on Thursday. They're going to discuss

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Speaker 9: this twenty billion euro emergency package of aid for Ukraine

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Speaker 9: military aid maconn suggesting that they should go as far

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Speaker 9: as two hundred billion euros. So we'll see in Brussels

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Speaker 9: on Thursday on that front. But when it comes back

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Speaker 9: to the UK, domestic fiscal picture really squeezed, as evidenced

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Speaker 9: by our reporting that as we head towards the March

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Speaker 9: twenty sixth Spring Statement, the Chancellor Rachel Ves is planning

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Speaker 9: to spending, cut spending plans and demand that government departments

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Speaker 9: really maximize productivity so that she can hit her fiscal rules.

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Speaker 9: So previously we'd reported that the unseen early estimates of

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Speaker 9: the Office for Budget Responsibilities forecasts suggested she would break

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Speaker 9: her fiscal rules if she didn't course correct because of

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Speaker 9: the weaker growth because of the higher borrowing costs since

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Speaker 9: the October budget. This appears to be how she will

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Speaker 9: fix that, but as you might expect, it's not going

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Speaker 9: to go down well with the backbenches of the Labor Party.

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Speaker 9: Star has already lost his International Development Minister over the

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Speaker 9: decision to pay for extra defense spending with cuts to

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Speaker 9: the AID budget, so some real political hurdles ahead for

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Speaker 9: the Prime Minister.

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