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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: Here we got growing in so speak.

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Speaker 1: We're sitting it to cash stop.

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Speaker 3: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kaban you want to

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Speaker 3: pass and we are Hello and welcome to another episode

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Speaker 3: of Strong Side Fridays. Only a few Strong Side Fridays

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Speaker 3: left for the year. We are at divisional weekend. I'm

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Speaker 3: your host, Brandon Anderson here as all is with Raheem Palmer,

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Speaker 3: getting you ready for I think maybe the best weekend

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Speaker 3: of the NFL season. We've got eight teams left. I

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Speaker 3: get an article up on the Action Network today why

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Speaker 3: every team can win that Super Bowl? Why every team

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Speaker 3: won't win the Super Bowl. It really feels like it's open.

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Speaker 3: We don't have a juggernaut this year. It really feels

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Speaker 3: like anyone can win. Rahiem, is this the best weekend

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Speaker 3: in the NFL?

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Speaker 1: I think it is. I do think it's the best

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Speaker 1: weekend in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: And so last time we got four games, so I'm

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Speaker 2: always excited for it. But at the same time, it's

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Speaker 2: a little sad because you know, football starting to come

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Speaker 2: to an end.

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Speaker 3: That's true, it's a bittersweet symphony, but that's life. We

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Speaker 3: will do no surprises here today. We're just gonna go

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Speaker 3: through all four games. We'll get your angles on everything.

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Speaker 3: We'll wrap up with best bets and a look ahead

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Speaker 3: on futures like we did last week. Don't forget to

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Speaker 3: download the app if you haven't. And of course, as

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Speaker 3: all as odds today are from bet MGM, the officials

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Speaker 3: provider of the Action Numbered podcast. All right, let's get

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Speaker 3: into it. Let's get down to business and get to

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Speaker 3: our games.

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Speaker 1: Let's get down. Let's get down to business.

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Speaker 3: So let's get down.

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Speaker 1: Let's get down to business.

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Speaker 3: Let's get down. Let's get down. The first game Saturday afternoon,

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Speaker 3: the Cincinnati Bengals and the Tennessee Titans. Again, not really

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Speaker 3: the playoff game I was expecting to have this weekend

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Speaker 3: coming into the season, or frankly in the middle of

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Speaker 3: the season or late in the season. But here we are,

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Speaker 3: the Bengals and the Titans. Tennessee right now is at

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Speaker 3: three and a half point favorite at home. Obviously, the

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Speaker 3: rested one seed total is at forty seven and a

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Speaker 3: half So both of these teams, not you know, the

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Speaker 3: advanced metrics we've talked about all year long. Neither one

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Speaker 3: of these teams is a Jugger, not to say the least.

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Speaker 3: They both are basically very average teams by DVOA and

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Speaker 3: by a lot of the metrics. So what do you

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Speaker 3: do when you got two very average teams playing against

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Speaker 3: each other?

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Speaker 2: Here their average, but I think both of them have

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Speaker 2: skill sets or things that they do it make them

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Speaker 2: elite in certain areas. People are going to look to

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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and see, you know, they're

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Speaker 2: dominant in passing. The Bengals are knife in dropback EPA

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Speaker 2: for play. They're also top ten in passing success rate.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of the public is going to look

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Speaker 2: at that and see this is the sexy team which

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Speaker 2: can pull the upset. But when you look at this line,

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Speaker 2: it opened up Titans minus two and a half and

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Speaker 2: this has been pushed all the way up to Titans

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Speaker 2: minus three and a half for a good reason.

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Speaker 1: What is your thoughts on this game?

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Speaker 3: I like the Titans, I don't love the Titans just

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Speaker 3: because I don't super trust either team in this matchup,

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Speaker 3: so I don't want to go too hard on this game.

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Speaker 3: I grab Tennessee early at the two and a half.

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Speaker 3: These teams though they look similar, but I think it's

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Speaker 3: important to remember that the profile for Tennessee is not

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Speaker 3: really accurate to the team that we're getting from Tennessee. Here.

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Speaker 3: It certainly looks like Derrick Henry is going to go.

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Speaker 3: We don't really know what version of Derrick Henry, and

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Speaker 3: we've talked a lot about that's not just getting the

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Speaker 3: running back, it's getting your identity back. It's getting who

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Speaker 3: you are as a team. And the advantage in this

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Speaker 3: game on both sides of the ball is the Titans

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Speaker 3: in the trenches. The Bengals lost Larry ogun Joby, who's

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Speaker 3: their stud run stuffer, and that's a big deal. You

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Speaker 3: don't want to lose your big run stuffer. You're Vita

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Speaker 3: Veya right before playing Derrick Henry and Trey Hendrickson. It

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Speaker 3: does look like he'll play, so that's good for the Bengals,

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Speaker 3: but we'll see how much. We'll see how limited he is,

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Speaker 3: and he's really their pass rush. So I like the

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Speaker 3: matchup for the Titans blocking and the Bengals oh line

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Speaker 3: hasn't been good this year. Joe Burrow had a franchise

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Speaker 3: record sacks this season, and the Titans pass rush had

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Speaker 3: been great early kind of slowed late in the year,

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Speaker 3: but I think could be rejuvenated with this week off.

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Speaker 3: So to me, just looking at playoff football, run the ball,

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Speaker 3: win in the trenches, that's a spot where the Titans

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Speaker 3: really have an advantage.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you hit the nail right on the head.

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Speaker 2: The Larry ogun Jobe injury is going to be big.

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Speaker 2: This Bengals defense was just thirteenth and rushing DV Away.

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Speaker 2: There were fourteenth and rushing success rate and fifteenth and

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Speaker 2: rushing EPA for play, So they're not going to be

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Speaker 2: able to stop this Titans run defense.

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Speaker 1: And I think that opens up the play action for

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Speaker 1: the Titans.

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Speaker 2: And when you can open up the play action and

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Speaker 2: you can get AJ Brown and Julio Jones going, and

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Speaker 2: these guys have had time to rest, you're in a

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Speaker 2: good position. And I think the Titans offense should be

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Speaker 2: able to do what they have to do. And I

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Speaker 2: also think you can put the Bengals in to that

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Speaker 2: negative game script where I think you're going to see

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Speaker 2: a higher scoring game. This total is at forty seven

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Speaker 2: to me, I think it's way too low. I'm looking

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Speaker 2: to go over here, but I do like the Titans.

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Speaker 2: I think once you start getting up to the three

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Speaker 2: and a half, it's a little scary. Divisional favorites are

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Speaker 2: actually thirty nine and twenty since four to sixty six

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Speaker 2: point one percent. However, against the spread, they're just twenty

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Speaker 2: six and thirty four. That's forty three percent. So these

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Speaker 2: favorites are winning, but they're not necessarily covering. And eighteen

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Speaker 2: out of the thirty four dollars you have covered, and

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Speaker 2: this round has also won the game outright, So it's

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Speaker 2: it's pretty rough with this line going up past the three,

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Speaker 2: But I do think the matchup lends itself towards the

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Speaker 2: Titans actually getting this done. There's some negative trends when

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Speaker 2: it comes to Raybeck, he's just fifteen and twenty and

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Speaker 2: one as a favorite, but I just think all the

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Speaker 2: trends point towards the Titans winning this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, those trends are offset a little bit by Rabel

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Speaker 3: and Tannehill. Both are very good with extra rest, extra

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Speaker 3: prep time, so that's one advantage here. I think Zach

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Speaker 3: Taylor to me is pretty clearly the worst coach left

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Speaker 3: of the eight head coaches in the playoffs, it'd be

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Speaker 3: a real disadvantage for the Bengals anytime going forward. You

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Speaker 3: mentioned two of those division round trends if you isolate

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Speaker 3: just the one seed, So since two thousand and three,

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Speaker 3: just one season Division round thirteen twenty three in a

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Speaker 3: one against the spread, So thirty four percent cover not

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Speaker 3: feeling good. However, like you said to me, that half

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Speaker 3: point right now is a really big deal, and I'm

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Speaker 3: kind of waiting out. I like the Titans here, but

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Speaker 3: I like it a lot better at three for at

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Speaker 3: two and a half. That's why I grab the two

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Speaker 3: and a half early. I think we might get there. Still.

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Speaker 3: I think that the Bengals are going to be a

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Speaker 3: public dog and that we're gonna get a lot of

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Speaker 3: bets in. We'll see, maybe maybe the money will keep

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Speaker 3: coming on Tennessee and keep it above the three if

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Speaker 3: it gets to three or shorter. One seeds who are

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Speaker 3: three point favorites or shorter are just two and three

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Speaker 3: against the spread. So it's still not great, but it's

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Speaker 3: not as bad as as that other three. Yeah, the

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Speaker 3: other trend, it's most of those lines where they're not

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Speaker 3: covering are these seven, eight, nine to ten point favorites,

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Speaker 3: And you know, we've got a little too smart for that,

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Speaker 3: and I think the books are adjusting these lines down

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Speaker 3: a little bit, so I'm not to worry about that.

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Speaker 3: I agree, though, with the negative script for the Bengals.

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Speaker 3: Here's one thing that I like a lot is I'm

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Speaker 3: playing the Titans first quarter Titans minus one first quarter.

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Speaker 3: It's at plus one hundred a couple numbers. The Bengals

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Speaker 3: are twenty ninth in DBA in the first quarter. They've

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Speaker 3: been a very slow starting team, and the Bengals defense

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Speaker 3: ranks thirty first on first down, So that is a

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Speaker 3: bad matchup against the Titans, where you know, the whole

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Speaker 3: thing the Titans want to do is keep the pressure

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Speaker 3: off Tannehill by handing it off and getting these four

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Speaker 3: or five six yard runs on first down and getting

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Speaker 3: the positive script all game long second and four second

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Speaker 3: and three second and five. The Bengals defense has been

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Speaker 3: allowing that all year, so I think you've got a

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Speaker 3: arrested Titans team. They've got their stars back healthy AJ

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Speaker 3: Brown and Julio Jones. They needed the time off. Another thing, too,

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Speaker 3: is that the home game matters here. We know the

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Speaker 3: homefield isn't what it once was. But the Bengals are

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Speaker 3: ninth in DVA and Cincinnati twenty fifth and DVA on

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Speaker 3: the road. The Titans defense seventeenth on the road seventh

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Speaker 3: at home. So for both of these teams, like you said,

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Speaker 3: they do have their strength, but where there are flawed teams,

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Speaker 3: the little things matter a little bit more. So the

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Speaker 3: home field matters a little bit more. The first down

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Speaker 3: defense matters more. I think there's a lot of situational

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Speaker 3: stuff that's going to put since out behind the eight

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Speaker 3: ball early and give Tennessee a leg up. I like

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Speaker 3: the Titans minus three and a half, but I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: wait and try to get it three or lower. That's

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Speaker 3: why I like the Titans first quarter to jump out

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Speaker 3: and get a lead, and I'm just kind of play

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Speaker 3: from the front.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that, And I think you can actually

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Speaker 2: extend that to the whole first half, because the Titans

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Speaker 2: actually have the fifth best scoring margin in the first

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Speaker 2: half at plus sixty. The Cincinnati Bengals are sixteenth at

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Speaker 2: plus five, So I think that extends far past the

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Speaker 2: first quarter.

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Speaker 1: Like you said, the Bengals are a slow starting team.

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Speaker 2: One thing I will add is that the Bengals opposing schedule.

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Speaker 1: Of pass defense has not been good.

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Speaker 2: It's probably been the easiest in the NFL, and I

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Speaker 2: think the Titans are gonna find some real success in

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Speaker 2: the passing game. So I'm looking at this being a shootout.

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Speaker 2: When you look at last week's game against the Raiders,

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Speaker 2: both teams drove up and down the field that will,

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Speaker 2: but they only kicked field goals. So I just think

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Speaker 2: you're getting a shorter number based on what we saw

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Speaker 2: last week, and I just don't think that's necessarily fair

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Speaker 2: when you got a Bengal trade no Larry Ogunjobi. The

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Speaker 2: Titans are gonna put up some points, and we know

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Speaker 2: that Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase can't really be slowed down.

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Speaker 2: So I like this game to go over. I think

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Speaker 2: that's that's the play right now at the current numbers.

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Speaker 2: If this gets below three or at three, I think

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Speaker 2: you can play the Titans.

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Speaker 1: But I can't. I can't touch it with three and

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Speaker 1: a half.

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Speaker 3: I'm a little hesitant to join you on the over

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Speaker 3: just because I expect a lot of running in this game,

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Speaker 3: and so I think it's gonna be that's going to

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Speaker 3: shorten the game a little bit. You know, we're gonna

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Speaker 3: talk about some other games. We're gonna see a lot

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Speaker 3: of passing this weekend. This is not one of those.

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Speaker 3: I think these are coaches who are going to protect

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Speaker 3: their quarterbacks. The Bengals are gonna protect Burrow on the road.

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Speaker 3: The Bengals two one thing I don't like about them.

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Speaker 3: We've talked about this. They still over committed to the

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Speaker 3: run game. The Titans defense is good, and especially the

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Speaker 3: run defense has been a really strong down the stretch.

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Speaker 3: Last week against the Raiders, who are a terrible secondary,

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Speaker 3: that Bengals ran on early down twenty one times, they

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Speaker 3: only had nineteen percent success rate negative point two to

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Speaker 3: three per play. So all seas along until week sixteen seventeen,

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Speaker 3: the Bengals keep feeding mix In. He's getting yards, but

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Speaker 3: it's not efficient. But I think they're going to feed him.

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Speaker 3: We know the Titans are going to run the ball,

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Speaker 3: so I'm a little nervous to go over just because

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Speaker 3: I think we could get these long drives and chewing clock.

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Speaker 3: I'd feel better I think about a Titans team over

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Speaker 3: than the game over. I feel pretty about the Titans

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Speaker 3: getting their points. I'm not so sure about the Bengals.

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Speaker 3: I could see a version of this game where the

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Speaker 3: Titans get that early lead and then just kind of

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Speaker 3: do Titans football and chew up the clock and Henry

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Speaker 3: gets going, Dante Foreman gets going, and maybe the Bengals

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Speaker 3: just don't quite show up on the road for this one.

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Speaker 3: But I don't know. It's an interesting game as certainly,

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Speaker 3: I feel like whoever wins this one is probably going

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Speaker 3: to be the underdog the next game out. So I'm

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Speaker 3: intrigued to see who goes forward in this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I am as well.

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Speaker 3: All Right, So Saturday night we go to the NFC,

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Speaker 3: and I know you and I are both excited about

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Speaker 3: this one. Forty nine at Packers. We were all over

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Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers last week. Big win for both

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Speaker 3: of us. Packer is our big favorites here, the biggest

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Speaker 3: favorite of the weekend. Five and a half right now,

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Speaker 3: though it was up to six and then now slipping

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Speaker 3: a little bit back down forty six and a half

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Speaker 3: for the total. I know, earlier in this week we

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Speaker 3: talked about this one. We had to wait on the injuries.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of big injury news here, so what

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Speaker 3: you've been hearing about injuries for either side of us.

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Speaker 1: On it appears at Jimmy Garoppolo he is banged uppy.

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Speaker 2: He is going to play Brett Warner his practice, And

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Speaker 2: I'm not quite sure about what's going on with Nick Boslo,

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Speaker 2: but to me, it appears that he's going to play. Look,

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Speaker 2: if this was a regular season game, they probably keep

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Speaker 2: this guy out. But we're seeing right now teams are

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Speaker 2: just going all in. The big thing in this matchup

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Speaker 2: is the Packers defense. Look, they can't stop the run.

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Speaker 2: We've seen it, Tom and Tom again with this matchup.

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Speaker 2: Packers are thirtieth and rushing EPA for play, thirtieth and

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Speaker 2: rushing success rate. And you know, last time these two

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Speaker 2: teams played, they didn't have Laheem Moster, and Elijah Mitchell

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Speaker 2: wasn't really acclimated to this system, and Deebo Samuel wasn't

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Speaker 2: getting the backfield carries that he's getting now, and the

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Speaker 2: Packers are gonna have to deal with that, and I

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Speaker 2: just think that's gonna be really, really tough. The Packers

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Speaker 2: are also twenty eight and explosive run play rate, so

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Speaker 2: when they face a top tier rushing offense, they're gonna struggle,

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Speaker 2: like when you look at that Browns game, and I

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Speaker 2: think that's a.

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Speaker 1: Good comp for this game.

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Speaker 2: The Browns rushed for two hundred and nineteen yards on

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Speaker 2: twenty five carries, and unlike Kevin Stefanski, Shanahan is not

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Speaker 2: gonna be afraid to run the ball, and I think

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Speaker 2: he's gonna continue to run the ball down their throat.

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Speaker 2: That's going to open up lanes for George Kittle. Another

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Speaker 2: good comp for this game is the Packers can't really

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Speaker 2: defend the middle of the field. We saw in that

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Speaker 2: Baltimore game. They basically threw to Mark Andrews over and

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Speaker 2: over and over again. So I really like George Kittle

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Speaker 2: in this matchup. I think Mark Andrews caught ten passes

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Speaker 2: for one hundred and thirty to two yards and two touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: so I think this line is way off. The last

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Speaker 2: time these two teams played, the four Nines were actually

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Speaker 2: laying three and a half at home. This line is

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Speaker 2: all the way at Packers minus six. And I know

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Speaker 2: I speak about this a lot. The Packers have one

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Speaker 2: of the best room for the advantages in football. I

299
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Speaker 2: know they're getting some guys back and Jye Alexander. But

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Speaker 2: I like the four Niners in this matchion, and I

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Speaker 2: think they have a good chance of winning this game outright,

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Speaker 2: as long as Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't turn the ball.

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Speaker 3: That's all. Was the caveat with the forty nine Ers.

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Speaker 3: But fully in lining on this one. Packers run defense

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Speaker 3: terrible all year. Packers defense overall has gotten the worse

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Speaker 3: late in the season. The Niners are the exact run

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Speaker 3: matchup for the Packers. And you know we've talked about

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Speaker 3: the Niners. I talk about Nineers futures for a couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks now. This is why this game, this matchup

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Speaker 3: is why, because the Niners were always likely to play

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Speaker 3: the one seed Packers if they won last week. This

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Speaker 3: matchup and liking the Niners here is why I love

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Speaker 3: the price on the Niners futures. I agree George Kittle.

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Speaker 3: I think he's gonna be a big game. Packers are

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Speaker 3: twenty eighth against tight ends in DBA, so Kittle, you

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Speaker 3: can get seventy yards for him at plus two forty

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Speaker 3: one hundred yards at plus five eighty. He's at seventy

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Speaker 3: yards or more six out of his fourteen healthy games

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Speaker 3: this year. So that's almost fifty to fifty. You're getting

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Speaker 3: good odds there. I agree. I think Kittle could have

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Speaker 3: a big game. Kittle out there, Trent Williams use check

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Speaker 3: Elijah Mitchell in the one cut runs Deebo Samuel in motion.

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Speaker 3: This is just exactly if you have to go on

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Speaker 3: the road against a team with a great offense, what

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Speaker 3: do you want? You want a team to power run

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Speaker 3: in the cold weather, control the clock, and keep the

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Speaker 3: MVP on the sideline. And that's exactly what the Niners

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Speaker 3: are built to do. I have this stat in the

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Speaker 3: last game the Packers defense on first down twenty fourth

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Speaker 3: in DVA. Guess who leads the league in first down offense?

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Speaker 3: The forty nine Ers. That's what they do. They run

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Speaker 3: the ball. They set the team up to have a

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Speaker 3: successful situation. A second and two, a second and four.

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Speaker 3: That's how you protect Jimmy Garoppolo. Guess what. Kyle Shanahan

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Speaker 3: is gonna do everything he can to protect Jimmy Garoppolo.

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Speaker 3: He is gonna run. We know we've seen playoff games

337
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Speaker 3: that he's just gonna do all he can to give

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Speaker 3: Jimmy the fewest throws that he has to make. And

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Speaker 3: I think that's good here because it's gonna just force

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Speaker 3: them to run the ball even more. I like the

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Speaker 3: matchup all throughout. You mentioned Nick Bosa, he did practice Wednesday,

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Speaker 3: limited practice. That's good news. If you're concussion you get

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Speaker 3: to practice at all. That means you're probably trending toward playing.

344
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Speaker 3: Zadarius Smith might not play, it's looking like for the Packers,

345
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Speaker 3: So that's another injury news that's kind of going our direction.

346
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Speaker 3: I just think this is the matchup you want for

347
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Speaker 3: the Niners. And you mentioned some of the other games

348
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Speaker 3: that reminded you of. How about all the times that

349
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Speaker 3: the Packers play the Niners, Like for the last like

350
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Speaker 3: two or three years, every time it's the Niners. Yet again,

351
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Speaker 3: Oh no, you're playing the Niners in a big game

352
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Speaker 3: against the Packers, and the Niners just kind of theyn't

353
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Speaker 3: always win, but they've had their number, they've performed well

354
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Speaker 3: against this team, and the Packers defense just hasn't really

355
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Speaker 3: measured up for them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Really, it truly has it. And I think we're both

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Speaker 2: on the same page. We've been saying it. I think

359
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:17,080
Speaker 2: we've been saying this since the regular season, that this

360
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Speaker 2: is the matchup that we like it's ideal we have

361
00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:21,000
Speaker 2: better number, do we anticipate?

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Speaker 3: So only bummer for me as I gave this one

363
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:25,480
Speaker 3: out on the hot read, trying to grab it ahead

364
00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:27,800
Speaker 3: of time, and then the number. Actually I should have

365
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Speaker 3: known to.

366
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Speaker 4: Me that.

367
00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:33,480
Speaker 3: I did. I bet, but I knew what I want

368
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Speaker 3: to add more later. I'm ready to add more. I

369
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Speaker 3: think with the way the injury news is trending, and yeah,

370
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Speaker 3: you did tell me to wait, the numbers a little higher.

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Speaker 3: Now it looks like it's starting to go back the

372
00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:44,280
Speaker 3: other way, so I think it's about the right time.

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00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,320
Speaker 3: Hopefully by the time you listen to this you can

374
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Speaker 3: still get that. I do like to if the Packers

375
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Speaker 3: go well here and you know, if they have a

376
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Speaker 3: nice even if they don't DeVante Adams, I think it's

377
00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 3: gonna have a big game. Not really outlandish saying that,

378
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,359
Speaker 3: but the Niners are second to last in DVAA against

379
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Speaker 3: wide receiver ones. DeVante's over one hundred yards five is

380
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 3: last six before the Detroit game, so you can get

381
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,439
Speaker 3: that for plus money. I like that one, but I

382
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:10,879
Speaker 3: think the Niners defense can hold its own here for

383
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,159
Speaker 3: inners defense the last eight games of the season was

384
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,399
Speaker 3: fourth in DVA. So we know that early in the

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00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:18,840
Speaker 3: year they had a bunch of injuries in the secondary

386
00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,359
Speaker 3: and they weren't really getting healthy out there. This is

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00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:23,240
Speaker 3: a team that's peaking the second half of the year

388
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 3: and heading into the playoffs, so I like that. The

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00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,480
Speaker 3: Niners are also second in passing offense DVA the last

390
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:32,440
Speaker 3: eight weeks, so when they do pass, they have been

391
00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 3: very good at it. They're picking their spots well. So

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00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 3: one more thing, back to the STATU said, back to

393
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Speaker 3: those one seeds. Remember one seedson Divisional round thirteen twenty

394
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:44,359
Speaker 3: three and one against the spread one seeds in the

395
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 3: divisional round as favorites of zero to ten points. That's

396
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 3: the Packers here eight twenty two in a one against

397
00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:54,679
Speaker 3: the spread only twenty seven percent cover rate. So I

398
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:56,640
Speaker 3: think the Niners have a great chance to cover here.

399
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 3: I think the Niners are going to win. And I've

400
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:00,440
Speaker 3: got more to say about the Niners and get back

401
00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:04,200
Speaker 3: to our look ahead too. So Niners to Niners to cover,

402
00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:06,760
Speaker 3: Niners to win. You're playing the money line too, right.

403
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:08,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm definitely playing the money line of all over.

404
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna be as big as a bet as

405
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,119
Speaker 2: the bet I made last week against the Cowboys. But

406
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 2: I'm definitely betting this game. You always gotta be a

407
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 2: little bit worried about Aaron Rodgers at home, but I

408
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:20,480
Speaker 2: liked for nine Ers in the matchup.

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00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, certainly Rogers at home in Green Bay all the trends.

410
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,720
Speaker 3: If you just want to just blindly bet Rodgers in

411
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 3: Green Bay, that's like the most sharp square thing that

412
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,200
Speaker 3: you can do. It's just back Rogers in Green Bay.

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00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 3: So you know, there's a version of the game where

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Speaker 3: Rogers just goes out and does Rogers things, and we

415
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Speaker 3: both show up Sunday night and are like, what were

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00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 3: we thinking? But there's a reason that the MVP hasn't

417
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:45,360
Speaker 3: won a Super Bowl anytime this century. It's too much

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Speaker 3: on one guy. Then Niners are the better team, I think,

419
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 3: and can win this one. So let's get a quick

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00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 3: word from our sponsor and then get two Sunday's games.

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441
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Speaker 4: located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Iowa, Junia, Tennessee, Nevada,

442
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Speaker 4: or Pennsylvania. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one eight

443
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445
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446
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Speaker 4: one eight hundred two seven zero seven to one to

447
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448
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450
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451
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Speaker 4: available in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening. Let's get

452
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 4: back to the.

453
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 3: Show, all right, Sunday Sunday. Sunday Sunday, we have I

454
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 3: think what we thought might be the four best teams

455
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 3: in the NFL coming in the season, playing on Sunday.

456
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 3: It's almost championship Sunday. We just get it again the

457
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 3: next week. So in the NFC, we have the defending

458
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 3: Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the team that

459
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 3: was the hot pick coming into the season, the Los

460
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 3: Angeles Rams. They went out, they got Matt Stafford in season,

461
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,959
Speaker 3: they added Von Miller, they added Odell Beckham Junior, they

462
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 3: got all stopped. The Bucks have the loaded a roster,

463
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,199
Speaker 3: but who knows who's even left to play on this

464
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 3: team long injury list that will get to Tampa bayor

465
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 3: right now right at minus three as a favorite at

466
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 3: home forty eight points on the total. I really liked

467
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 3: the Bucks earlier this week, but I am starting to

468
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,399
Speaker 3: get nervous about these injuries. What are you hearing on

469
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 3: the Bucks injury report.

470
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 2: I'm very concerned about the Bucks right now. When you

471
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 2: look at their offensive line, right tackle Tristan Warfs, he

472
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:30,640
Speaker 2: was knocked out of the game last week, and then

473
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 2: sinner Ryan Jansen got hurt. And while Jansen return to action,

474
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 2: Warfs might be able to play. But it's just like

475
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 2: you're still looking at a team with the offensive line

476
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 2: it's not full strength, and you're going up against a

477
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 2: Rams defensive line with Von Miller Aaron Donald. That's just

478
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 2: their first of ESPN's passwort win with and you saw

479
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 2: last week Kyler Murray is one of the best at

480
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 2: being a vague pressure in neutralizing those pass rushes, and

481
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 2: he wasn't able to do that. Now I expect Tom

482
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 2: Brady to go with the short passing game. I just

483
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 2: don't see how this Buccaneers offensive line is going to

484
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 2: hold up. Last time these two teams played, Tom Brady

485
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 2: wasn'tffishing at all. He was forty one to fifty four

486
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty two yards and a lot of that

487
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 2: came in garbage tome. So you're looking at Tom Brady, Yeah,

488
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 2: he had a twelve point three EPA for play, but

489
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 2: like their passing success rate, they really struggled earlier on.

490
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 2: So I honestly think the Rams might be the better

491
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 2: team at this point, like when I'm looking at these

492
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,360
Speaker 2: teams outside of the fact that Matthew Stafford can throw

493
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 2: the game way.

494
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, as the week has gone on, I have really

495
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 3: backed off of my Bucks position a little bit here.

496
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 3: I was ready to back up the Brinks truck on

497
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 3: the Bucks when this line opened under a field goal

498
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 3: on Monday. All they wanted for Monday Night was either

499
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 3: the Rams or the Cardinals to win and look awesome

500
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 3: so that we'd get a cheap line on a Bucks

501
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 3: home game. We know the Bocks have been way better

502
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 3: at home all year. As the weeks got on, the

503
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 3: injury poor is not looking good. You mentioned too, the

504
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 3: guys on defense Shaq Barrett, Levante David played last week

505
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,360
Speaker 3: didn't look that great. If you think back, We've seen

506
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,400
Speaker 3: a lot of Tom Brady for decades, and the one

507
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,919
Speaker 3: way to get the best of Tom Brady is to

508
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 3: get that pass rush on him, and when he doesn't

509
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 3: have protection, it can't get the ball out. That's those Giants.

510
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 3: That's how the Giants always had his number. Not because

511
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 3: of lam Manning, don't be stupid. It's because the pass rush.

512
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,919
Speaker 3: They always would get after him. And I'm worried a

513
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,880
Speaker 3: little bit as this week has gone on. This game

514
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 3: reminds me some of the Super Bowl last season, but

515
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 3: the shoe is on the other foot this time. The

516
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 3: Bucks have the better quarterback. I want Tom, not Matt Stafford.

517
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 3: But do the Rams just have the healthier, better team?

518
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 3: Remember the Chiefs have those offensive line injuries and Mahomes

519
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 3: just never had time. My read early in the week

520
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 3: was all over the Bucks. The metrics look good. The

521
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 3: Bucks are six and one, agains playoff team one eight

522
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 3: of their last nine number one offensive DVOA. I don't

523
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 3: know if this is that Bucks team. I don't know

524
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:08,919
Speaker 3: if they're healthy enough to do that. They don't have

525
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 3: their receivers at minus three, it's moved. Certainly not a

526
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 3: bet for me anymore. I don't even know for sure.

527
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 3: With Zalen, I certainly won't be out into my Tampa position.

528
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 3: I'm feeling a little queasy about us.

529
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 2: You know, one of the things that a lot of

530
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 2: people aren't talking about. We're talking, we've spoken, We're hearing

531
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 2: a lot about the books injuries. But the one injury

532
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 2: that's really really key for this matchup for the Rams

533
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 2: is that they can be missing left tackle Andrew Whitworth,

534
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 2: and that's just as big as the injuries for the Buccaneers.

535
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: So look, if you don't have your left tackle.

536
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 2: And we know that Cam akers big day last week,

537
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 2: they're not gonna be able to run the ball on

538
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 2: this Buccaneer's defense, and that means they're gonna have to

539
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 2: rely on Matthew Stafford, who has been turnover prone outside

540
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 2: of last week. So when I look at this matchup,

541
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 2: I'm seeing this feels like a defensive game and it's

542
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 2: tough to take an under with Tom Brady and Maggie

543
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 2: Stafford needs explosive offenses, but how explosive were they going

544
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 2: to really be? So I think in this matchup, first

545
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 2: I have under is twenty four. It's juiced at minus

546
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 2: one twenty at many of these places for a reason.

547
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 2: And when you got two banged up offensive lines, you

548
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 2: got two great defenses, two good pass rushes.

549
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 1: I think you can see a slower start to this game.

550
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 3: That's interesting because we know I don't play a ton

551
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 3: of totals. I was leaning over here, but I was

552
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 3: leaning because I'm worried that either one of these teams.

553
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 3: I could see either the Bucks of the Rams score

554
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 3: like ten points and that's it, because if Wickworth is hurt,

555
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 3: if Worf's is out, if either of these offensive lines

556
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 3: doesn't hold up, I could see the oppos that offense

557
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 3: just crumbling and just not getting points and either Stafford

558
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,479
Speaker 3: or Brady having a pretty night marriage game if they

559
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 3: just don't get the blocking. So problem though, is that

560
00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 3: we've got injuries across both defenses. Another we didn't talk about.

561
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,640
Speaker 3: The Rams secondary is very banged up. Both safeties are out.

562
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 3: We got Eric Weddle coming out of retirement from like

563
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 3: a decade ago. Playing Eric Weddle was awesome, but the

564
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 3: last time he played for last week was pre COVID,

565
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,360
Speaker 3: which has been a minute. In case you forgot so,

566
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray couldn't do anything. Odell Beckham had more passing

567
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 3: yards than Kyler Murray for most of the game last week.

568
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 3: Brady's going to pass and he's gonna hit on that

569
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 3: secondary Jalen Ramsey can't cover everybody. The last time these

570
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 3: teams played early in the season, they had both had

571
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 3: huge passing games. So I think I'm gonna stay away

572
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 3: from the total just because your point about the under

573
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 3: makes sense. There's defensive talent here, and I worry that

574
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 3: either team could just lay an egg. But I want

575
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,439
Speaker 3: to feed the Rams because I don't trust the Rams

576
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 3: offense fourteenth and away to dv away on passing. They

577
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:53,440
Speaker 3: started third in passing offense the first ten weeks, sixteenth

578
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 3: in the last eight weeks. And by the way, you

579
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 3: mentioned cam Akers. Let's not confuse cam Akers looks good

580
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 3: after Achilles. They were running the ball well. They were

581
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 3: in for three point seven yards per attempt against a

582
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 3: bad Cardinals run defense. I don't think the Rams are

583
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 3: we running at all, So that's the problem for me.

584
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 3: To come full circle, I don't think either team's gonna

585
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 3: run the ball much. The Bucks have run well, but

586
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 3: we don't know if not as healthy, so we might

587
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 3: just get a lot of Joe Bernard again. So if

588
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 3: we're not running much now it's Brady and Stafford and

589
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 3: if we come all back to it. You are not

590
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 3: convincing me to take Matt Stafford on the road against

591
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 3: Tom Brady, and I know there's more than one guy

592
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 3: on the field. We've done the numbers before, but let's

593
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 3: hear them again. Matt Stafford November or later against teams

594
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 3: over five hundred, eleven and forty one straight up as

595
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 3: an underdog four and thirty three, four and thirty three.

596
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 3: He has to win four of those games to win

597
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. He only had done three his whole

598
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 3: life until last week. Stafford fourteen to thirty five and

599
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 3: two against the spread in that spot, eight interceptions the

600
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 3: last four game totally crumbled. I don't want my I

601
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 3: won't be able to forgive myself if I've bet on

602
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 3: Matt Stafford in the spot and then to watch him

603
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 3: do Matt Stafford things which we've been doing all year.

604
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 3: Tom Brady seventy six, forty eight and seven against the

605
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 3: spread as a favorite of seven or less. Tom Brady

606
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 3: in the coin flip games where the line is three

607
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 3: or less either way thirty five, twenty three and four

608
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 3: ats sixty percent, and in the playoffs nine to three

609
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 3: against the spread seventy five percent. In those coin flip

610
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 3: games covered by six point two points a game and

611
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:36,719
Speaker 3: a sixth straight. It seems oversimplifying it, but I just

612
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 3: I think it's a passing game, and both secondaries are

613
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 3: very beatable with all the injuries, both running games aren't

614
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 3: gonna do much. And if I think it's a passing game,

615
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 3: I just had to take Brady. I just can't take

616
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 3: Stafford hit it.

617
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: I totally get it.

618
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 2: I mean, we've spoken at length about Matthew Stafford's record

619
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 2: against winning teams.

620
00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 1: I totally understand it.

621
00:29:58,080 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna be like, to me, it's it's ram

622
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 2: Rams are passing this matchup, but we have to wait

623
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: on that news for Wharfs and Jansen. If those guys

624
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 2: are healthy, this line is probably shure. We were probably

625
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 2: looking at books four. But the fact that this line

626
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 2: is three, it's kind of telling.

627
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, the line being at three is a big deal.

628
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 3: Whitworth we need to find out about him to If

629
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 3: the line moves a half point down and now it's

630
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 3: Bucks two and a half, I like the Bucks again,

631
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 3: it goes past the three, There's no way I'm playing

632
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 3: the Bucks at that number. So that's a very narrow

633
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 3: margin here. You're on Rams are pass I'm on Bucks

634
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 3: or pass.

635
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the first half hundred.

636
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're right, you're right. As far as the game spread, though,

637
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 3: we're kind of on the opposite sides but or passed,

638
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 3: So we maybe just need to stay away a little bit,

639
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 3: or certainly we know, wait and see on those injuries

640
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 3: those offensive line, and you know, whichever quarterback gets the

641
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 3: better protection is the team I'm gonna feel better about.

642
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 3: So then we go to our Sunday finale. This one

643
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 3: another very exciting game. Got the Kansas City Chiefs, the

644
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 3: team that have been at the top of the AFC

645
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 3: favorites all year long, and the team that we knew

646
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 3: was going to be the contender to the throne, the

647
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 3: Buffalo Bills. The Bills played the perfect game last weekend.

648
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 3: Bills beat up on the Patriots. The Chiefs had a

649
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 3: scrimmage against the Steelers and went through the motions and

650
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 3: got the job done. And we're very very close line here.

651
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 3: The Chiefs are getting maybe a little disrespected, but maybe

652
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 3: actually a little too much respect. We'll see what you

653
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 3: think your line is. The Chiefs are at minus one

654
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 3: and a half. The total is at fifty four point

655
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:38,479
Speaker 3: five highest of the weekend, So let's start there. Chiefs

656
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: minus one and a half feels disrespectful at first. I

657
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 3: have a feeling though, that you're going to say that's

658
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 3: giving them too much credit. What does your model make

659
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 3: this line.

660
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 1: To make this number up? Pick them?

661
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 2: And I think that's like, look, this is the AFC

662
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 2: Championship game and for all sense and purposes, and I

663
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 2: think the number reflects that. When you look at the

664
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 2: first matchup between these two teams, the Bills absolutely dominated

665
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 2: Josh Allen fifteen or twenty six, three hundred and fifteen yards,

666
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 2: three touchdowns, eight point one yards per play, twelve point

667
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 2: one yards past. They dominated on the ground one hundred

668
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 2: and twenty one rushing yards four point three yards per rush.

669
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 2: I know the Chiefs defense has gotten better since then,

670
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 2: but I don't know how much better they've actually gotten.

671
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 2: So I think some of that may be misleading. Based

672
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 2: on the schedule, and when you're looking what the Buffalo

673
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 2: Bills are just doing offensively and how they built this

674
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 2: roster to go up against the.

675
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:39,479
Speaker 1: Chiefs, it's tough to just go with the method. I know.

676
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 2: Signon said this on The Favorite Podcast, is that when

677
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 2: he sees Patrick Mahomes under a field goal, he has

678
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 2: to take it, and typically I would agree, But when

679
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 2: it comes to this matchup, the Chiefs been known for

680
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 2: some slow starts. And you get off a slow start

681
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: the way they did against the Pittsburgh Steelers, you're down

682
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 2: twenty one nothing. And I know in the past they've

683
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: had games against the Buffalo Bills. They started off slow

684
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 2: last last year in the postseason and they were able

685
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 2: to overcome it. I know at one point they played

686
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 2: the Titans and they came back from a slow start.

687
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 2: They came back against the Houston Texans where they actually

688
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 2: put up forty one on the answered points to help. Yeah,

689
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 2: that's not happening here, and I don't let you know.

690
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 2: I actually predicted that too. It's so funny, and.

691
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 3: Of course I was on that too. This team can

692
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 3: put the points in a hurry. The thing is, though,

693
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 3: the Bills have had a lot of soul starts this

694
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 3: season too. The Bill's offense really kind of takes a

695
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 3: while to get things moving, and they they've played with

696
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 3: their food a little bit. They allowed teams to hang around,

697
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 3: usually not the good teams. They've showed up in the

698
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 3: good games, but they've allowed teams like the Jets and

699
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 3: others like that to just kind of hang close, but

700
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 3: they're never good enough to get the job done, and

701
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 3: the Bill's defense is good enough to get the job done,

702
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 3: and eventually the offense kind of explodes late. A lot

703
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 3: of those late explosions have come from desperation where it's

704
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 3: close late and then they're getting some short fields and

705
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 3: things like that. So I'm gonna push back a little

706
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 3: bit on the earlier matchup thing, because you're right, thirty

707
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:12,800
Speaker 3: eight twenty Bills domination. But they had four turnovers to none,

708
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:14,959
Speaker 3: so they won the turnover battle bay. Obviously, the Chiefs

709
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 3: had four turnovers. We knew early on the season the

710
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:21,240
Speaker 3: Chiefs kept having those red zone turnovers. We don't expect

711
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:24,720
Speaker 3: there to be a four turnover differential in this one. Again, Also,

712
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 3: Josh Allen was incredible in that game. If Josh Allen

713
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:31,280
Speaker 3: plays like he did last weekend, the Bills are invincible.

714
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 3: You got that defense and that Josh Allen, he's gonna

715
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 3: you're gonna win a lot of games. Patrick Mahomes had

716
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 3: negative EPA per play in that game. Do we think

717
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes is gonna have negative EPA per play in

718
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 3: this one, probably not he could. The Bills defense very good,

719
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 3: but so it's not just that the Chiefs defense was

720
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 3: not as good then and is better now. They are

721
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 3: better now. I don't know how much, but don't forget

722
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 3: the Chiefs offensive line had totally remade early in the

723
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 3: season and got dominated in that one and has taken

724
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 3: some time but has really rounded a shape too. So

725
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 3: I look back when I read about this game, and

726
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,839
Speaker 3: my conclusion was, I think we just can't read too

727
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,440
Speaker 3: much into that game or the two from last year,

728
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 3: because we look back last year, the Chiefs played twice

729
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 3: against the Bills and really dominated in both of them.

730
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 3: You said that we're not going to get forty one unanswered.

731
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,959
Speaker 3: Literally in the AFC title game, the Chiefs went thirty

732
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:26,799
Speaker 3: eight to six on the Bills. After getting down in

733
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 3: that game, Josh Allen had negative EPA. I don't expect

734
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 3: that's going to happen. So I don't know we can

735
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 3: learn too much from there. And the Bills defense this

736
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 3: year is not going to give up a thirty eight

737
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 3: to six run like it did last year. Earlier last year,

738
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 3: the Chiefs won twenty six to seventeen. That game was

739
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 3: the closest by a total margin, but actually the Chiefs dominated.

740
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 3: They doubled in yardage, they almost doubled in time of possession. Again,

741
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 3: josh Allen wasn't good, but Josh Allen wasn't really good

742
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 3: yet that early in the season. He was still kind

743
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 3: of becoming the Josh Allen he is now. So we

744
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 3: have to be careful, I think, not to make too

745
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,919
Speaker 3: much of these past games and just look at what's

746
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 3: in front of us. What's in front of us, like

747
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 3: you said, is that the Bills beat their team to

748
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,919
Speaker 3: beat the Chiefs. This is the roster they planned for.

749
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 3: There's just one problem with that. That roster included Trudevius White,

750
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 3: and we haven't seen that as a big flaw for them.

751
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 3: He's out for the year. Tyreek Hill is the guy

752
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 3: that you want pre Davius White in there for and

753
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,319
Speaker 3: Tyreek I wonder if he could finally break through. He

754
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 3: hasn't had that gread of a season like he's do

755
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 3: in the past. He hasn't had those huge plays. But

756
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 3: I wonder if this is the spot where no Trey

757
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 3: White is a big problem for Buffalo.

758
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree with that.

759
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 2: That's something I was actually you stow to words right

760
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 2: out of my mouth, because I think this is the

761
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 2: one matchup where Buffalo can be hurt by his absence.

762
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 2: And look, when I'm looking at this game, I think,

763
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,280
Speaker 2: if I'm going to take anything, I'm taking Buffalo.

764
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 1: On the teaser, let's get this up to seven.

765
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 2: I think we're saying at one and a half, let's

766
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 2: get this through the key number of three and seven.

767
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 2: And this is probably to me, if Buffalo is for real,

768
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 2: they cover.

769
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 1: This game, they have a chance to win. So I

770
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 1: like the teaser on this spot.

771
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,439
Speaker 2: I see no reason to really play them at one

772
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 2: under a field goal, but I think that I think

773
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 2: Buffalo can can put themselves in a position to cover

774
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 2: the seven and a half.

775
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I had a feeling you're gonna go that direction.

776
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 3: I was looking for teaser legs this weekend. I'm on

777
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 3: Kansas City in this game. Spoiler alert, I guess I'm

778
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,399
Speaker 3: about to make the case for it. But this does

779
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,919
Speaker 3: look like the right Bills teaser leg because the back

780
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,919
Speaker 3: door is gonna be wide open. You know, the total

781
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 3: at fifty four and a half, we're gonna get points

782
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 3: in this game, and the Bills are not just gonna

783
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 3: lay down and dive. They're gonna be throwing. Josh Allen's

784
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 3: be putting up points, and they're gonna they're gonna have

785
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:48,880
Speaker 3: a chance of this game. So I like the teaser. Certainly,

786
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 3: I'd feel better if you can get the if the

787
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 3: Chiefs get back to minus two or higher, so you

788
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 3: can get past the eighth and a better spot. I

789
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 3: know that that fits the stafford a Wong rules. Some

790
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,719
Speaker 3: of the reason I have the Chiefs here is I

791
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 3: agree with you. You said, you know, basically, how do

792
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 3: we know how good is this Chiefs defense? Are we

793
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 3: sure it's as good as we're letting it on? And

794
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 3: I think it's in between. I think that it's certainly improved,

795
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 3: but also not awesome yet, but good enough. You know,

796
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 3: the Chiefs don't need to have an awesome defense, they

797
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 3: just need a good enough And right now, if you

798
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 3: look at the last eight weeks, here are the trends

799
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 3: in this game for both teams. They're trending toward the

800
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 3: Chiefs and the Bills trending a little bit in the

801
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 3: wrong direction other than last week. And we can't get

802
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 3: too cut up in that perfect game against the Patriot.

803
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 3: So last eight games Chiefs defense number ten in DVOA.

804
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 3: That's good enough. Tenth is good enough, and the Bills

805
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 3: offense is about the same there, so that's a pretty

806
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 3: even matchup. Now from the last eight weeks, Chiefs defense

807
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 3: top eleven versus the run and against the pass in

808
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 3: that stretch. Remember thirty first defense the first ten games

809
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 3: of the year. That's who the Bills played the first time,

810
00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 3: and that's part of why they're rated so bad because

811
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 3: the Bill lit them up. Let's be fair, but the

812
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 3: Chiefs offense is also playing better last eight games. Chiefs

813
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:10,839
Speaker 3: passing offense number one by DVOA, only fifteenth the first

814
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:15,319
Speaker 3: ten games. So the Chiefs offense, it doesn't feel like it,

815
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 3: but they're turning again. Mahomes is going again. The Bills

816
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 3: run defense down to sixteenth the last day, so the

817
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 3: Bill's defense is trending a little bit down. However, a

818
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:29,800
Speaker 3: thing that surprised me the Bill's rushing offense is actually

819
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 3: first in the league by DVA the last eight weeks.

820
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 3: So I don't really know what to make of that

821
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 3: because I don't think a lot about Buffalo running the ball,

822
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:42,720
Speaker 3: but it does worry me a bit as the Chiefs

823
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 3: better because you'd like to have the number one run

824
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:49,839
Speaker 3: attack against the Chiefs. Keep Mahomes on the sideline. So

825
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 3: I worry a little bit. Are the Bills just to

826
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 3: jugger not? You know, they have now twelve wins on

827
00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:00,839
Speaker 3: the season. All twelve wins are by twelve points or more.

828
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,399
Speaker 3: When they win, they really win, they look really good.

829
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 3: They've gone zero to five and one score games, and

830
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 3: we know that that is pretty random that that could

831
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 3: go either direction. What if the Bills went five to

832
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 3: zero in those games like that, they equally random chance

833
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 3: of that happening. They would be sixteen and a one

834
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 3: right now, and this absolute juggernaut that would be, you know,

835
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 3: the one seed and the huge favorite. I wonder a

836
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 3: little bit. You know, I wrote about who could win

837
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,760
Speaker 3: the super Bowl and why and who wouldn't The Bills

838
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 3: had the most interesting case to me as to why

839
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 3: they could win. When the Bills are what we saw

840
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 3: last week, they are the team that can crush everyone

841
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:44,799
Speaker 3: with this number one rated defense. I just don't know

842
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 3: if they are that though. Do you think that the

843
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 3: Bills are closer to that sixteen and one hypothetical version?

844
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:53,279
Speaker 3: Is this a fear version of what we got? How

845
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 3: do you think about the Bills big picture?

846
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 2: We'll go a Super Bowling and I think they're a

847
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 2: legitimate team. You know, it has tough losses this year,

848
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 2: but for the most part, this team's just been dominated

849
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 2: all year.

850
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 1: I mean, I was.

851
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 2: Thinking about that Coach game earlier this year where they

852
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 2: lost forty one to fifteen, and you look at the

853
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 2: ninety four to forty nine Ers. They had a game

854
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 2: like that in their Super Bowl year. I think they

855
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 2: lost forty four to fifteen, and that it's like since then.

856
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 2: To me, this team is just they're the most complete

857
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 2: team in the league to me, Like they can pass

858
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 2: the ball, they could run.

859
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 1: The ball, the defense is the best.

860
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 2: Obviously Trey White is out, but I don't see any

861
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 2: other team.

862
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 1: That's as complete as them.

863
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 2: And the only the only thing that's keeping everybody from

864
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 2: truly jumping on the Bills right now is the fact

865
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 2: that people don't truly believe in Josh Outen.

866
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 1: That's really what it comes down to.

867
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 2: I like the Bill, I'm gonna be honest with you,

868
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 2: I just I don't know if I could play that

869
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 2: this number, just because guys like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady,

870
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 2: they kind of break the game, and that's the only

871
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:53,399
Speaker 2: thing keeping me off.

872
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, that's that's the thing. It just it

873
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 3: feels like a very tight matchup here. Like of the

874
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:02,240
Speaker 3: weekend games. There's a reason this line is the shortest

875
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 3: because these teams feel very evenly matched. If that's the case, though,

876
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 3: I fall back on the same few things. We're in Arrowhead.

877
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 3: We know the Chiefs are so good at home, and

878
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 3: I look at the quarterback, I look at the coach.

879
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 3: Josh Allen and Sean McDermott have been awesome. This is

880
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:21,399
Speaker 3: not a slight on either one of them. It's still

881
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 3: Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid. And we know that these

882
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 3: guys have been here before. I said this, before you

883
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 3: play King of the Hill, you got to throw in

884
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 3: the King and the Chiefs. They just have the advantages

885
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 3: where it matters most. And the little thing too is

886
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 3: the Chiefs always have great special teams. The Bill's special

887
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 3: teams is the one area that's been a little shaky.

888
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 3: We saw their kicker really struggle last week. What you

889
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 3: missed two extra points and shank the third one that

890
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 3: actually went in. So just when we're talking about a

891
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 3: one a two point favorite in that range, those special teams.

892
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:55,800
Speaker 3: Plays can really rear their head at the wrong time.

893
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 3: So you mentioned Simon just saying, Mahomes field goal or shorter, guy,

894
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 3: take it for me. I'm in the same spot on

895
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 3: this one. When Mahomes is a field goal or shorter

896
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 3: or an underdog for his life in the NFL fourteen

897
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,879
Speaker 3: four to one against the spread, seventy eight percent cover.

898
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 3: He's won nine of the last eleven. However, one of

899
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:17,440
Speaker 3: those losses was the Bills game earlier this year. So

900
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,360
Speaker 3: I feel like I've made almost a better case for

901
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 3: the Bills than for the Chiefs on this one. But

902
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,479
Speaker 3: I think the Chiefs are better. I think Mahomes is better.

903
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 2: I think we over complicated. I mean those of us

904
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 2: who work in the media, those of us who.

905
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:32,280
Speaker 1: Bet for a living.

906
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 2: Sometimes it is just that simple that Mahomes or Brady

907
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 2: they break all of the rules. And you know, Simon

908
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 2: said this on the Favorite Podcast, and I think he

909
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:46,839
Speaker 2: was right. It's just I can't really go against Mahomes

910
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 2: under a field goal. And I think the advantage that

911
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 2: we have is better is that as makers have to

912
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 2: place a line on every single game, we don't have

913
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 2: to bet every game. And I don't know how much

914
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 2: of an edge I have betting the Bills plus one

915
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 2: and a half against the Chiefs at home against Patrick Mahoone.

916
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 1: I just don't so for.

917
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:07,879
Speaker 2: Me, I think if I'm going to play this game,

918
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:09,360
Speaker 2: I'm playing the Bills on the teaser.

919
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense. All right, let's wrap up with

920
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 3: our Divisional round best bets. Again. We've just talked about

921
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 3: all these games, So what are your favorite picks on

922
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 3: anything we just talked through.

923
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 2: I think my favorite picks are the forty nine Ers

924
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:25,879
Speaker 2: plus six and money line.

925
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:28,320
Speaker 1: That's my favorite. I think.

926
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 2: I think the teaser to go with is the Rams

927
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:33,720
Speaker 2: tease that up through the key numbers.

928
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: We get that around order.

929
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 2: They like Rams plus nine and then I think you

930
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 2: get the Bills plus eight and a half. I've really

931
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 2: liked that, so I think those are those are my

932
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 2: favorite two. And now I think I like the first

933
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 2: half under twenty four in the in the Buccaneers Rams game.

934
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 2: But I think you want to wait for these offensive

935
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 2: line injury news. But the Krim Dela Krem for for

936
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 2: best this week is forty nine Ers plus six. That's

937
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 2: my favorite bet. So if you want to add an

938
00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 2: extra unit to that you can do that.

939
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:02,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're align on this one. Niners cover Niners money line.

940
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:04,919
Speaker 3: That's my favorite too, So that's definitely my top play.

941
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 3: That was it going into the week. I also had

942
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:09,880
Speaker 3: Bucks early on, but I'm cooled on them a little bit.

943
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 3: I will not list that in my best bets now.

944
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 3: The other one I like that I mentioned it was

945
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:17,359
Speaker 3: Titans first quarter minus one plus one hundred. On that one,

946
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 3: I feel like the Times are going to get off

947
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:21,719
Speaker 3: to a good lead there. Feel pretty good about that game,

948
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 3: and I think that's a nice angle to take on it.

949
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:27,280
Speaker 3: And for prop looking for those Bucks running back reception overs,

950
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 3: the lines aren't up yet them seeing but you know,

951
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:31,800
Speaker 3: if I get something like Jue Bernard was two and

952
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 3: a half receptions last week, he had almost he could

953
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 3: have hit that on the first drive, you end up

954
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 3: with five catches, so only for him and or for

955
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 3: net on running back reception overs. So those are my

956
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 3: best bets. Let's hit our look ahead here as we

957
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:45,359
Speaker 3: wrap up.

958
00:45:45,320 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 4: Hot Wrap Boy going ice rights ice Cream.

959
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 3: And like last week, we're playing futures on the look ahead. Now,

960
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:57,359
Speaker 3: obviously we don't have lines yet for next week or matchups.

961
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 3: So last week futures. Raheem gave you the Chiefs to

962
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 3: win the Super Bowl. I gave you the Bucks win

963
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. Our case for both was that they

964
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 3: had a pretty easy matchup last week. That's basically what happened.

965
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:10,319
Speaker 3: They kind of coach to through, So we're kind of

966
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:14,360
Speaker 3: coming through okay right now as of today. What looks

967
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 3: like the best future on the board to you doesn't

968
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 3: have to necessarily build on that position last week, just

969
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:22,399
Speaker 3: fresh better today. Forahim, what is your favorite future player

970
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:22,839
Speaker 3: right now?

971
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 1: Or the Los Angeles Rams.

972
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:27,120
Speaker 2: And one of the reasons why is because I think

973
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 2: at plus seven hundred to me, this game against the

974
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 2: Buccaneers is closer to a coin flip to me, and

975
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 2: based on how much we like the forty nine ers,

976
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:39,760
Speaker 2: I think that gives me some value in the sense

977
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 2: that they'd be getting a home game against the forty

978
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 2: nine ers, who although Shanahan has dominated the Rams, you

979
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 2: still got a home game for the NFC Championship game,

980
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:53,399
Speaker 2: and you have a dominant pass rush. So I think

981
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 2: that's that's the biggest value on the board. At plus

982
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 2: seven hundred, I think it's priced a little bit too low.

983
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 2: It's probably should be around the same ranges where the

984
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:02,800
Speaker 2: Bucks are right now, to be honest, just because I

985
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:03,760
Speaker 2: think that's a coin flip.

986
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 3: So interestingly, the same angle you're taking is the angle

987
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 3: I'm on. I'm just playing it differently. I'm back to

988
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers, and it's because I like Niners

989
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 3: plus six hundred to get to the Super Bowl, plus

990
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:18,840
Speaker 3: twelve hundred to win it, and it's the same angle.

991
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:22,279
Speaker 3: Though I like the Niners matchups, the one matchup I

992
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:25,360
Speaker 3: didn't love for them looking ahead on this was potentially

993
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:28,640
Speaker 3: the Buccaneers. Now that all those injuries are propped up,

994
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 3: I think the Bucks have not as strong of a

995
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 3: chance to make the NFC Championship game. I like the

996
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:36,480
Speaker 3: Niners against the Rams. You know, I prefer to play

997
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 3: it at home, of course, but I like that matchup.

998
00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 3: The Niners have won six straight games against the Rams.

999
00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 3: That is a matchup that Shanahan's dominated, and it's not

1000
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 3: just a coaching thing. It's a stylistic matchup, and the

1001
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 3: Niners just have the style that beats the Rams. The

1002
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 3: run game, they just get going that way. So I

1003
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 3: like that the Rams maybe give a more favorable matchup

1004
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 3: to the Niners. So hundred and twelve hundred to get

1005
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:03,400
Speaker 3: to the super Bowl or win it. I'd make that

1006
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 3: closer to four hundred and nine hundred. I've already got

1007
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,359
Speaker 3: big positions on those. I've got a plus twenty five

1008
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 3: hundred for the super Bowl and a five thousand to

1009
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 3: win it. But if you're fresh better, I think there's

1010
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 3: still a little bit of value there if you like

1011
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 3: the Niners in that matchup, Because same thing that we're

1012
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 3: agreeing on that the Bucks possibly not looking as good,

1013
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 3: and even if the Bucks do move forward having those

1014
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 3: injuries and not being as strong a version of them,

1015
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 3: I think that the things continue to break right for

1016
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:35,319
Speaker 3: the Niners here. So I like my chances with them.

1017
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:37,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we're on the same page. We really

1018
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 2: love the forty nine ers. Like you know, I had

1019
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 2: that swammy parlay forty nine ers Buffalo bills. I asked

1020
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:46,840
Speaker 2: some forty nine s features. You have some forty nine speachures,

1021
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:49,719
Speaker 2: so hopefully, I mean, look, the fort nine ers pulled

1022
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,240
Speaker 2: us out. We're gonna be we can be sitting pretty

1023
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 2: enjoying the super Bowl.

1024
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 3: That's going to wrap it up for today's podcast here

1025
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:58,920
Speaker 3: at the Action Network. Don't forget to rate subscribe and

1026
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 3: review Apple and Spotify. Now we're getting a lots of

1027
00:49:01,960 --> 00:49:04,279
Speaker 3: reviews there. Give us those five stars. We love them,

1028
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,279
Speaker 3: we need them. Download the app. If you haven't, check

1029
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:09,879
Speaker 3: out Stuck in raybaon on their six pack. They got

1030
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:12,919
Speaker 3: covered on all the playoff games as well. We will

1031
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 3: see you guys Sunday night Monday morning. First thing to

1032
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:19,279
Speaker 3: look back at all four games last weekend in the

1033
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:22,879
Speaker 3: NFL Fourhem Palmer and Brandon Anderson and this has been

1034
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:25,359
Speaker 3: the Action Hour podcast and we'll see you in the

1035
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 3: final four