WEBVTT - (Radio) 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.360 This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our globe look at 0:00:04.360 --> 0:00:06.240 the top stories of the coming week from our day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:09.040 Break anchors all around the world, and just the him 0:00:09.039 --> 0:00:12.320 of the program. The Battle of the Retailers is on. 0:00:12.600 --> 0:00:15.200 I'm John Tuckery in New York. I'm Stephen carl in London, 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:17.759 where the stakes are high for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt as 0:00:17.800 --> 0:00:20.599 he unveils a budget that must pluck a massive fiscal 0:00:20.680 --> 0:00:24.000 gap and calm market fears about the UK economy. I'm 0:00:24.000 --> 0:00:26.319 Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. We look at the most 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:29.960 innovative ideas that the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:32.840 I'm Amy Morris in Washington. How the mid terms could 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:37.480 shape the presidential election. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:42.960 Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:47.000 d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:50.960 San Francisco, d A B, Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:54.320 one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot 0:00:54.320 --> 0:01:00.240 Com and via the Bloomberg Business App. I did I'm 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:04.080 John Tucker, and let's start today's program with the retail segment. 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:08.360 The retailers sitting on massive amounts of inventory. They over 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:13.440 ordered this year after being traumatized by pandemic supply chain shortages, 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:17.800 and now, according to industry experts including Dana Kelsey, CEO 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:22.000 of Telsey Advisory Group, inventory is sky high. It's not 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:27.640 only up versus last year, it's up versus also most 0:01:27.720 --> 0:01:31.600 companies are looking to reduce inventory levels and tells you 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:34.560 also tells us this massive blood of inventory comes just 0:01:34.720 --> 0:01:38.480 as the economy appears to be hitting a rough patch. 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:43.680 Certainly the middle and lower income levels are definitely spending 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:49.320 more cautiously, and the stock market volatility real estate values 0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:53.480 may also lead to some level of moderation in the 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:56.960 upper income areas. This could potentially put discount retailers in 0:01:57.000 --> 0:02:00.200 the sweet spot, although we just heard Telsey say their 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:03.200 shoppers could be constrained. So joining us now to talk 0:02:03.440 --> 0:02:08.240 about this punum coil seeing your retail analysts with Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:10.800 All right, what we just said, throw that into the blender, 0:02:11.120 --> 0:02:13.920 turn alound high and what do we pour out? What's 0:02:14.040 --> 0:02:17.840 what's what's the outlook here? The outlook is for the 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.600 shoppers they're going to get great deals with holiday UM 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:24.799 if they can afford it. I don't every money less 0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:28.480 a deal of a deal. People still jump on deals UM, 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:32.160 but seriously, on a serious no UM. Holiday is going 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:35.079 to be challenging this year. UM. Retailers have a lot 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.520 to chew on. Clearly, consumers, they're strapped for cash. They 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:40.600 have a lot of inventory, which means that they'll be 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:45.680 promotional across the board. They're still dealing with inflation higher costs, 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:49.200 so that's going to pressure margins. It won't be easy. 0:02:49.560 --> 0:02:52.360 But we do see shoppers returning to stores, which is 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:55.880 a good thing, and online sales will still rise, but 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:57.760 you're not going to see the double digit gains that 0:02:57.800 --> 0:03:01.079 you're used to seeing for the past many years. Specifically 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:04.640 to t J Max, they report quarterly results this coming week, 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:08.520 So is this their moment in the sun because they're 0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:11.919 a discounter. Yeah, t J asked, you know, the one 0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:14.320 thing inventory is bad for retail, but it's great for 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:17.080 t j X and the off spicers. When there's a 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:19.920 lot of inventory in the marketplace, they get to buy 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:24.440 it cheap and pass on those savings to their customers. 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:27.040 So it just means they'll be getting better products, they 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:29.240 save that product, they can put it out next year 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:32.840 and make better margin on it. So you will find 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:35.200 good stuff at t j X at a bargain, and 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:38.160 we're going to see shoppers appreciate that and to their store. 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:40.680 To keep in mind, their business is largely a store 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:45.120 based business with less than two or three percent done online. Okay, 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:48.240 this this just occurs to me now, just sort of tangentially. 0:03:48.320 --> 0:03:52.120 Does the fact that they're high inventories mean that the 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:56.560 supply chain disruptions all that stuff is solved, it's all 0:03:56.600 --> 0:04:00.480 behind us now, Yeah, I think it's a different hiccup 0:04:00.480 --> 0:04:02.960 in the supply chain. So remember last year at this point, 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:06.120 we're talking about not getting enough inventory for the holidays. 0:04:06.520 --> 0:04:09.920 So retailers had ordered in advance, they had ordered more 0:04:09.960 --> 0:04:14.200 than they needed, and all that inventory is coming into 0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:18.360 the stores and distribution centers as of spring summer this year. 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:21.159 So now all of a sudden, they have so much inventory, right, 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:24.320 it's almost a reverse problem, and um, they don't know 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:25.919 where to keep it, they don't know how to stock it, 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:27.400 they don't know how to sell that. Some of it 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:30.839 is not sellable anymore because it's not seasonal. Because some 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:34.040 of that inventory from Spring is coming in in the fall. 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:35.680 What do you do with that? You've got to write 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:39.760 it down. Okay, Um, let's move on to Amazon. You 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:43.159 also cover Amazon. What's the story there? Yeah, you know, 0:04:43.240 --> 0:04:46.520 Amazon is a company that we still like very much. 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:49.640 They clearly are going through some issues right now, especially 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:53.480 when it comes to rising costs and enterprises cutting back 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:58.359 on fund So they have multiple businesses online clearly the 0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:01.760 biggest business, but the most profitable, is their cloud business 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:05.160 a WS. What you saw last quarter was a function 0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:07.040 of what happened at a w S, which is why 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:11.360 the stock took a beating. Um. But from the online perspective, 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:14.400 we do things that sales have bounced back from the 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:16.480 first half, so they're much better than they were in 0:05:16.560 --> 0:05:20.480 one age. And while there will be more discounting in 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:23.640 the fourth quarter, we do think Amazon for the long 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:27.880 run still stands to be in the best position to 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:30.640 take online share, as a shift from brick and mortar 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:34.640 to online is still very much on the table. Okay. 0:05:35.000 --> 0:05:38.560 We also have Macy's gap Walmart reporting this coming week. 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:42.040 You said this earlier. The consumer doesn't have money to spend, right, 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:44.359 they have to find the money to spend. They're worried 0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:48.120 about cost rising, so promotions will be key, and how 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:51.400 they discount on the inventory that they bring forward will 0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:53.839 really determine their top line in margins at the end 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:57.560 of the quarter. Walmart of value play, but it does 0:05:57.680 --> 0:06:01.440 target the low end consumer, so the consumers that's probably 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:05.920 most trapped for cash and inflation will hurt their spending. 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:08.880 Where Macy's is struggling with being a department store. Right, 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:12.159 We've talked about department stores in the past, and it's 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:14.880 it's a place where consumers are going less today than 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:17.640 they did years ago, so they're still challenged with those 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:23.000 structural or structural shopping challenges that consumers are shifting away from. Okay, 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:25.599 before you go, I gotta I asked this question every 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:29.479 year review what's the what's the to get item this year? 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:31.359 What's the one item I have to buy for the 0:06:31.360 --> 0:06:34.320 holiday shopping season? The PS five is still on a 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:37.400 lot of shoppers which lost so I think it's electronics 0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:40.760 and toys. Electronics or toys are still at the top 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:44.039 of which lift and gift cards. People want gift cards, 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:47.320 That's what I'll get you then put them always a pleasure. 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:49.960 I appreciate it. Put them gals, senior retail analysts with 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:54.240 Bloomberg Intelligence and just to hand. On Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:59.240 Britain's Finance minister will finally officially on Bailer's bunchet. I'm 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:08.640 John Tucker, DNCY is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreaking weekend. 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:11.080 Are global looking ahead of the tom stories for investors 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:13.400 in the coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:16.520 Up later in the program busy time in Asia as 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:20.400 we gear up for the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. But first, 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:23.760 almost three weeks later than planned, Britain's Finance minister will 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:28.040 finally unveil he his budget on Thursday. Jeremy Hunt, along 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:30.840 with the Prime Minister Rishi Sunac, need to balance the 0:07:30.880 --> 0:07:33.840 books and convince markets there won't be a repeat of 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:37.960 the previous government's mistakes that sent guilt markets into meltdown. 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:42.440 From Warlet's into London bringing Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Steven 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.840 Carol John Jeremy Hunt might have been spooked by the 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:48.840 Halloween date his budget was originally set for, but in 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:50.640 the coming days he might get a chance to scare 0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:53.040 us all anyway. With the gloomy economic outlook that the 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:57.080 UK is facing. We've been well warned the situation is grim. 0:07:57.160 --> 0:08:00.120 The Bank of England's forecasting eighteen months of recession and 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:02.920 the fiscal gap that needs to be plugged in this 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:06.440 budget has estimated at more than thirty billion pounds. To 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:08.800 look ahead to Watson Store, I'm joined by our UK 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:11.440 correspondent Lizzie Burden. Lizzie set the scene for us. It's 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:13.520 it's been called an artem statement, but it's a pretty 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:18.000 wintry backdrop. Our colleague Katherine Griffiths has reported that the 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:21.240 Chancellor told a group of senior business people that this 0:08:21.280 --> 0:08:24.720 would be really interesting bleep if he wasn't in the 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:28.679 middle of it. You've got double digit inflation strikes across 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:31.760 sectors and the Bank of England forecasting a recession, though 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:33.720 how deep it's going to be is going to depend 0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:36.880 on how high interest rates will rise. Now the Chancellor, 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:39.360 Jeremy Hunt and the Prime Minister Richie Snack have made 0:08:39.440 --> 0:08:43.600 very clear there are eyewatering ly difficult decisions ahead if 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:46.440 they want to plug this hole in the public finances. 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:48.920 Some would say that hole isn't real, it doesn't have 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:51.880 to be plugged, but you'll remember the market turmoil that 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:55.400 followed Liz trust Is mini budget in September, in large 0:08:55.440 --> 0:08:58.360 part due to the raft of unfunded tax cuts that 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:02.440 she and her chancellor, then Quasi Quarsteng proposed. But the 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:05.600 bottom line is they need to boost growth, help the 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:08.959 most vulnerable people through the cost of living crisis without 0:09:09.000 --> 0:09:11.480 adding to inflation. I want to tackle this idea of 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:14.040 how much information we're getting in advance of the budget 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:17.040 as well and the run up to Thursday's announcement, there 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:18.920 has been a plethora of reports in the media about 0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:21.120 what sorts of measures we might be getting. This is 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:23.080 something they see that you and I discussed what pamer. 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:26.600 Gordon's chief economists Simon French, He's very against the way 0:09:26.640 --> 0:09:28.480 these leaks are happening and says that it has a 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:33.240 visible chilling effect on UK economic activity. There are areas 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:37.360 that are sensitive to changing tax rates, changing funding for 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:42.360 infrastructure projects. This run up to every fiscal event does 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:45.080 move activity to the right. Now, you could say that 0:09:45.200 --> 0:09:48.320 only for a couple of weeks, but this stuff is 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:51.120 I feel like symptomatic of a broader malaise that has 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:55.520 overtaken UK politics in my view, which is this rotating 0:09:55.600 --> 0:09:59.400 door between the special advisor community and the journalist community, 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:03.240 and they're all trying to keep each other happy by 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:08.200 leaking stories. This leak culture up at a hair up 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:11.600 ahead of a fiscal event has real world implications that 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:14.079 I do think if you're in the Westminster bubble, it's 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:16.480 you sometimes lose sight of Okay. So that's the view 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:18.559 of Simon French from Pioneer Gordon when he spoke to 0:10:18.640 --> 0:10:21.319 us a couple of days ago, Lizzie, that's Simon's point 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:23.360 of view on that issue. Of course, we're very keen 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:25.640 to see what sort of things are being floated, what 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:28.080 are the controversial ideas that are being battered around at 0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:31.000 the moment. Well, first off, Simon's not wrong. Business leaders 0:10:31.080 --> 0:10:34.960 are frustrated by all the leaks, especially about potential tax 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:38.280 rises on dividends and capital gains, because they do have 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:43.040 real world consequences for investment in cash hungry startups. The 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:46.840 way the former Pizza Express boss put it, Hugh Osmond, 0:10:47.360 --> 0:10:49.920 was it's as if every day they set a new 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:54.200 hair running. He said, it's lazy, it's laden with unintended consequences. 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:56.880 So that's the comms in terms of the meat of 0:10:56.960 --> 0:10:59.640 the budget some measures that you could see would be 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:03.600 an increased windfall tax on energy profits, which would be 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:09.840 extended in terms of time from and expanded to include 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:14.600 energy generators. That would expect upset Tories who think that 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:18.200 the state shouldn't punish business for success. You could also 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:20.640 see a freeze on the foreign aid budget. That's going 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:24.120 to invite criticism that the UK is abandoning its ambitions 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:27.160 as a world leader. And then there's the thorny issue 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:30.679 of whether to raise pensions and benefits in line with inflation. 0:11:30.840 --> 0:11:33.520 But if you look at who Rishi Sonacs appointed as 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:37.920 Work and Pension Secretary male Stride, he's expressed that he 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:40.760 thinks they should rise in line with inflation and he's 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:43.800 a key sooner and lots of difficult decisions being made 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:45.840 as well. That this statement will also be a chance 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:47.839 for Issy Snacs government to set out some of its 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:51.439 priorities for the economy. Plenty of industry is very interested 0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:53.280 in what's going to be said. One that will be 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:55.520 listening closely is the financial sector, very key to the 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:58.520 City of London. We've been talking to Miles Selleck about this. 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:01.480 He's from the industry Group the City UK. Reflecting the 0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:06.000 conversations that we've had with international counterparts and other potential 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:08.960 investors in the UK. What people are looking for is stability, 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.800 They're looking for predictability. I think the UK has been 0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:14.840 seen from a political perspective is just a little bit 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:19.440 too exciting, certainly since six and the Brexit vote and 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:21.400 the sort of consequences that have flowed from that, and 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:25.960 arguably from fourteen and the Scottish independence referendum. So I 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.280 think there would be there will be a strong sense 0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:32.160 of welcome for being able to know the direction of travel. 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:35.160 On regulation, what that looks like now that the UK 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:38.720 is out of the European Union. What's the vision for 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:42.840 financial and related professional services? Something Richie Sunac set out 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:46.120 quite compellingly in his mention how speech last year? How 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:47.920 will that be built on and what are we going 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:51.080 to see as we move forward? Also in terms of 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:54.920 potential new deals with other markets. Okay, so that's males 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:58.160 select from the city UK. That's one form of perhaps 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:01.720 pressure that the government will be feeling. It hasn't been 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:04.760 a very easy start to Richie Suonac's premiership either, in 0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:08.120 this could potentially be an important moment politically as well. 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:09.800 Talk to us about the politics. Could this be a 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.720 reset moment perhaps for the new government. I'm sure Richie 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:16.000 Sunac would hope to draw a line between himself and 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:20.560 Liz Trust given that he spent the whole summer warning 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:25.280 what would happen if tax cuts were launched too soon 0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:29.840 without dealing with the immediate problem of inflation. He too 0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:31.720 is going to need to boost growth in the medium 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:33.800 to long term if he wants to be re elected, 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:37.720 but he needs to do that without adding to inflation. 0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:40.520 In fact, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has said that he 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.600 wants to help bring down inflation so that the Bank 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:46.200 of England can raise rates as little as possible to 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:51.120 minimize the recession the UK faces. Now Hunt and Sunac 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:56.040 are being accused of managing Britain's decline, being too pessimistic 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:58.600 about UK growth, and you could say that the Bank 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:02.240 of England's messaging has been in too excessively gloomy. The 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:06.920 banks forecast this long recession if rates follow market expectations, 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:10.839 but that nuance was seemingly lost on most of the 0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:13.640 national newspapers. So you have to ask whether the man 0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:17.600 in the street is going to be too gloomy as 0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:20.240 a result. Of the messaging outside the Bank of England. Likewise, 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:23.400 with the Treasury, economists are asking whether the Treasury is 0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:27.440 going to raise taxes and cut spending too much in 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:31.640 order to leave itself headroom in case growth underwhelms so 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:34.200 that it has enough left in the kitty for pre 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:37.800 election giveaways. And the question really is is the Treasury 0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:41.360 creating unnecessary pain? One of the many many questions will 0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:44.040 be hoping to get answers to on Thursday when the Chancellor, 0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:46.760 Jeremy Hunter takes to his feet to deliver the autumn statements. 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:50.000 Thanks for our correspondent and Lizzie Burden forward those insights. 0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:52.720 I'm Stephen Carroll in London. You can catch us every 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:55.720 weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, beginning at six 0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:59.680 am in London and one am on Wall Street. John Stephen, 0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.800 Thanks live just ahead on Bloomberg day Break weekend Global 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:07.600 leaders gathering in Asia for the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:16.080 I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from the 0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:20.360 Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg eleven three 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:24.760 oh to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.960 O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to 0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:31.480 the country, Sirius XM Channel one nineteen to London, d 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:34.720 A B Digital Radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:38.680 Business Act and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg 0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:47.360 day Break Weekend. I'm John Tucker in New York with 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:49.960 your global look ahead of the top stories for investors 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:53.080 in the coming week. Movers and shakers gathering in Asia. 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:55.600 We have the Guy Getting taking place in the coming 0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:59.520 days in Bali, Indonesia, and US China relations also in 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:02.520 focus there. We also have another big gathering in Asia 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:05.240 just about underway, and for more on that, let's go 0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:08.360 to Hong Kong and Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Brian Curtis 0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:12.520 and his colleague Doug Prisner. John. The fifth annual Bloomberg 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:16.000 New Economy Forum gets underway in the coming week in Singapore. 0:16:16.400 --> 0:16:19.000 It comes at a delicate time for the global economy. 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:21.840 Inflation is at a forty year high in many countries. 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:25.480 We know that war continues to rage in Ukraine and 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:29.040 food security is very much in question. It's in question 0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:34.000 because food supplies are dwindling and costs are skyrocketing. Supply 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:37.080 chains have been broken and output has been crippled by 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:42.240 labor shortages. Policymakers and investors are looking for innovative ideas 0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:44.600 to break the chain, and as such the forum comes 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:48.560 at a very opportune time. Joining us now Bloomberg's Eric Shatzker, 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:52.160 who is in Singapore for the forum. Eric, always a pleasure, 0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:54.160 Thanks so much for helping us set the stage for 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:58.160 this year's any f Let's begin with a view from 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:01.480 thirty thousand feet, so to speak. New economy, big picture, 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:03.960 no doubt, and I imagine that a lot of this 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:07.480 is going to focus on the intersection between government and 0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:09.679 the private sector. Can you touch upon some of the 0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.840 key themes up for discussion? I would say that one 0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:18.200 theme we will be tackling in earnest and absolutely cannot ignore, 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:23.400 is the rising tension level between the United States and China. 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:25.959 And of course this isn't a new story. The tension 0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:29.200 level has been rising for some time. But with President 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:33.159 she having cemented control over the Chinese Communist Party at 0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:38.080 the recent Congress and the Biden administration having imposed new 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:42.600 controls on the export of advanced technology to China, UH, 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:47.480 this situation has been thrown into perhaps sharper relief. Then 0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:50.919 we've seen it in maybe since the early nineteen seventies, 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:55.000 because it casts a shadow over everything in this part 0:17:55.000 --> 0:17:59.159 of the world, and it's just something impossible to ignore. 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:02.000 You're right. And it's interesting that you mentioned that has 0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:04.240 been with us because you remember even the first one. 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:07.040 We were supposed to do the first an F in 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:10.399 Beijing and it had to get switched to Singapore, and 0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:12.840 we went to Singapore for that first one. So US 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:17.480 China relations has tended to intervene really even back in 0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:21.159 that time where when Donald Trump was was waging his 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:24.959 uh sort of trade war with China. But there's some 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:27.880 other big issues that weigh in as well. Inflation. I'm 0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:31.080 thinking that inflation could be having a big impact as 0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:35.680 well on companies trying to deal with, say setting targets 0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:39.399 for carbon reduction and for spending and green technologies and 0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:42.080 such uh and and this is this makes it a 0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:44.879 very difficult time to outlay a lot of capital. Oh, 0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:47.560 it certainly does. It's a very delicate time. It's one 0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:49.119 of the themes that we will be exploring at the 0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:51.840 New Economy Forum with some of the world's largest and 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:54.520 most powerful investors I would name among them cal doon 0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:58.120 A Lebark from Mubatla, which is of course the Emirati 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:02.520 Sovereign Wealth Fund. We also have Neil Sheen who who 0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:05.800 is the founder and CEO effectively of Sequoia, the man 0:19:06.040 --> 0:19:08.359 managing partner excuse me of Sequoia China, one of the 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:12.480 world's foremost venture capital investors. We have Limb chow Kat 0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:14.720 who is the CEO of g I C which is 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:18.399 the Singaporean one of the two Singaporean sovereign wealth funds. 0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:22.720 John Graham from the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Raphael 0:19:22.760 --> 0:19:25.400 Aren't from the Future Fund of Australia, yet another sovereign 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:29.240 wealth fund. These are the capital pools that have to 0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:32.520 make decisions right now about how much they're willing to 0:19:32.640 --> 0:19:37.520 plow into renewable energy and sustainability, and the pressures uh 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:41.280 that inflation is creating for the rest of the world 0:19:41.640 --> 0:19:45.159 is having a real consequences for those investment decisions. What 0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:48.080 we're hoping to find out at the New Economy Form 0:19:48.320 --> 0:19:51.880 is that some of these sovereign wealth pools remain committed 0:19:52.400 --> 0:19:56.600 to making investments in carbon reduction, for example, and renewable 0:19:56.680 --> 0:19:59.720 energy because if they falter, then there's there's there's a 0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:02.240 good chants that we could throw net zero by out 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:04.399 the window. Well, the timing of the n e F 0:20:04.560 --> 0:20:07.879 is such that it's so closely follows Cop seven. And 0:20:08.119 --> 0:20:10.840 I'm curious to hear about the momentum that may be 0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:13.639 building in the community that you just described here. Is 0:20:13.680 --> 0:20:17.720 there greater appetite in the investment community for opportunities in 0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:20.760 the green space now? Is there some enthusiasm building? You know? 0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:23.600 I would say, Doug that yes, Uh, it's it's It's 0:20:23.680 --> 0:20:27.520 as much of an imperative as ever before, but it's 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:29.919 a much more complicated and challenging picture because of the 0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:33.160 macroeconomic headwinds And it's not just inflation. That's the consequences 0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:38.200 of inflation, not just rising prices, but higher the hurdle. 0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:40.919 The hurdle is so much higher now. A lot of 0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:44.679 fodder for interesting conversation, no doubt. Eric, thank you so 0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:46.879 much for being with us and helping us set the 0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:50.480 stage for the fifth annual Bloomberg New Economy Forum. Bloomberg's 0:20:50.560 --> 0:20:54.200 Eric Shatzker joining us from Singapore. I'm Doug Krisner along 0:20:54.240 --> 0:20:56.800 with Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. You can catch us 0:20:56.840 --> 0:21:00.880 weekdays here for Bloomberg Daybreak Aisia, beginning at seven am 0:21:01.000 --> 0:21:05.160 in Hong Kong, six pm on Wall Street, John Brian 0:21:05.240 --> 0:21:08.120 and Doc thanks a lot. Just ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. 0:21:08.480 --> 0:21:10.879 What to watch for in the coming week and weeks 0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:16.240 as we moved closer to the presidential campaigns. I'm John Tucker. 0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:27.200 This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Are global 0:21:27.200 --> 0:21:29.320 look ahead at the top stories for investors in the 0:21:29.320 --> 0:21:32.320 coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. Lots of 0:21:32.320 --> 0:21:35.399 surprises in the mid terms and some rancor between former 0:21:35.440 --> 0:21:38.960 President Trump and Florida Governor Ron De Santis to Trump 0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:42.240 last week lashing out and his potential competitors in the 0:21:43.400 --> 0:21:51.000 presidential race. Trump at seventy one, Rond sanctimonious at Mike 0:21:51.040 --> 0:21:53.520 Pence at seven. Mike's doing better than I thought. That's 0:21:53.520 --> 0:21:56.119 sort of the stage center movedwise when it comes to 0:21:56.160 --> 0:21:59.720 Republicans in the post mid term world. For more about 0:21:59.800 --> 0:22:01.960 all of it, including how things are stacking up for 0:22:02.119 --> 0:22:07.040 Democrats in four as well, let'stend to our Bloomberg newsroom 0:22:07.160 --> 0:22:11.480 in Washington and Amy Morris, Amy all right, thank you, John, 0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:15.960 and joining me now Bloomberg Government Senior Elections reporter Greg Jero. Greg, 0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:19.800 You've been following this very closely with momentum for President Biden, 0:22:20.200 --> 0:22:24.160 and he's talking now a little more about there's also 0:22:24.280 --> 0:22:28.240 been some disarray among Republicans. They say they'll be able 0:22:28.240 --> 0:22:30.199 to work some of it out. Let's start from the 0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:34.080 very beginning, Rondo Santis claiming this huge victory in the 0:22:34.080 --> 0:22:37.240 gubernatorial race down in Florida. Let's hear what he had 0:22:37.280 --> 0:22:39.000 to say, and we'll talk about it. On the other side, 0:22:39.280 --> 0:22:42.840 we offer a ray of hope that better days still 0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:47.080 lie ahead. All right, So Rondo Santa's talking about some 0:22:47.160 --> 0:22:49.840 of the traction that he's got. How much does he 0:22:49.920 --> 0:22:51.919 really have to play with here? Well, he was a 0:22:51.920 --> 0:22:55.800 big winner from Tuesday and was otherwise a good overperformance 0:22:55.840 --> 0:22:59.840 by Democrats and underperformance by Republicans around the country. To 0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:02.840