1 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our globe look at 2 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: the top stories of the coming week from our day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,040 Speaker 1: Break anchors all around the world, and just the him 4 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:12,320 Speaker 1: of the program. The Battle of the Retailers is on. 5 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: I'm John Tuckery in New York. I'm Stephen carl in London, 6 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:17,759 Speaker 1: where the stakes are high for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt as 7 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:20,599 Speaker 1: he unveils a budget that must pluck a massive fiscal 8 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: gap and calm market fears about the UK economy. I'm 9 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,319 Speaker 1: Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. We look at the most 10 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 1: innovative ideas that the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. 11 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:32,840 Speaker 1: I'm Amy Morris in Washington. How the mid terms could 12 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:37,480 Speaker 1: shape the presidential election. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg 13 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, 14 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, 15 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: San Francisco, d A B, Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM 16 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot 17 00:00:54,320 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 1: Com and via the Bloomberg Business App. I did I'm 18 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 1: John Tucker, and let's start today's program with the retail segment. 19 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: The retailers sitting on massive amounts of inventory. They over 20 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: ordered this year after being traumatized by pandemic supply chain shortages, 21 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: and now, according to industry experts including Dana Kelsey, CEO 22 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: of Telsey Advisory Group, inventory is sky high. It's not 23 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: only up versus last year, it's up versus also most 24 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: companies are looking to reduce inventory levels and tells you 25 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: also tells us this massive blood of inventory comes just 26 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 1: as the economy appears to be hitting a rough patch. 27 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:43,680 Speaker 1: Certainly the middle and lower income levels are definitely spending 28 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 1: more cautiously, and the stock market volatility real estate values 29 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 1: may also lead to some level of moderation in the 30 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: upper income areas. This could potentially put discount retailers in 31 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: the sweet spot, although we just heard Telsey say their 32 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: shoppers could be constrained. So joining us now to talk 33 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 1: about this punum coil seeing your retail analysts with Bloomberg Intelligence. 34 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 1: All right, what we just said, throw that into the blender, 35 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,920 Speaker 1: turn alound high and what do we pour out? What's 36 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: what's what's the outlook here? The outlook is for the 37 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: shoppers they're going to get great deals with holiday UM 38 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:24,799 Speaker 1: if they can afford it. I don't every money less 39 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 1: a deal of a deal. People still jump on deals UM, 40 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 1: but seriously, on a serious no UM. Holiday is going 41 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:35,079 Speaker 1: to be challenging this year. UM. Retailers have a lot 42 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 1: to chew on. Clearly, consumers, they're strapped for cash. They 43 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: have a lot of inventory, which means that they'll be 44 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 1: promotional across the board. They're still dealing with inflation higher costs, 45 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: so that's going to pressure margins. It won't be easy. 46 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 1: But we do see shoppers returning to stores, which is 47 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: a good thing, and online sales will still rise, but 48 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 1: you're not going to see the double digit gains that 49 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 1: you're used to seeing for the past many years. Specifically 50 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 1: to t J Max, they report quarterly results this coming week, 51 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: So is this their moment in the sun because they're 52 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 1: a discounter. Yeah, t J asked, you know, the one 53 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: thing inventory is bad for retail, but it's great for 54 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 1: t j X and the off spicers. When there's a 55 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,920 Speaker 1: lot of inventory in the marketplace, they get to buy 56 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: it cheap and pass on those savings to their customers. 57 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: So it just means they'll be getting better products, they 58 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 1: save that product, they can put it out next year 59 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 1: and make better margin on it. So you will find 60 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: good stuff at t j X at a bargain, and 61 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: we're going to see shoppers appreciate that and to their store. 62 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 1: To keep in mind, their business is largely a store 63 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: based business with less than two or three percent done online. Okay, 64 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 1: this this just occurs to me now, just sort of tangentially. 65 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 1: Does the fact that they're high inventories mean that the 66 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 1: supply chain disruptions all that stuff is solved, it's all 67 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: behind us now, Yeah, I think it's a different hiccup 68 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 1: in the supply chain. So remember last year at this point, 69 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: we're talking about not getting enough inventory for the holidays. 70 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 1: So retailers had ordered in advance, they had ordered more 71 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: than they needed, and all that inventory is coming into 72 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 1: the stores and distribution centers as of spring summer this year. 73 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 1: So now all of a sudden, they have so much inventory, right, 74 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: it's almost a reverse problem, and um, they don't know 75 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:25,919 Speaker 1: where to keep it, they don't know how to stock it, 76 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: they don't know how to sell that. Some of it 77 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 1: is not sellable anymore because it's not seasonal. Because some 78 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 1: of that inventory from Spring is coming in in the fall. 79 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 1: What do you do with that? You've got to write 80 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 1: it down. Okay, Um, let's move on to Amazon. You 81 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:43,159 Speaker 1: also cover Amazon. What's the story there? Yeah, you know, 82 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: Amazon is a company that we still like very much. 83 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: They clearly are going through some issues right now, especially 84 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 1: when it comes to rising costs and enterprises cutting back 85 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 1: on fund So they have multiple businesses online clearly the 86 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: biggest business, but the most profitable, is their cloud business 87 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:05,160 Speaker 1: a WS. What you saw last quarter was a function 88 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 1: of what happened at a w S, which is why 89 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: the stock took a beating. Um. But from the online perspective, 90 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: we do things that sales have bounced back from the 91 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 1: first half, so they're much better than they were in 92 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 1: one age. And while there will be more discounting in 93 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, we do think Amazon for the long 94 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: run still stands to be in the best position to 95 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 1: take online share, as a shift from brick and mortar 96 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 1: to online is still very much on the table. Okay. 97 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: We also have Macy's gap Walmart reporting this coming week. 98 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 1: You said this earlier. The consumer doesn't have money to spend, right, 99 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,359 Speaker 1: they have to find the money to spend. They're worried 100 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: about cost rising, so promotions will be key, and how 101 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: they discount on the inventory that they bring forward will 102 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 1: really determine their top line in margins at the end 103 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: of the quarter. Walmart of value play, but it does 104 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: target the low end consumer, so the consumers that's probably 105 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 1: most trapped for cash and inflation will hurt their spending. 106 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: Where Macy's is struggling with being a department store. Right, 107 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:12,159 Speaker 1: We've talked about department stores in the past, and it's 108 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: it's a place where consumers are going less today than 109 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: they did years ago, so they're still challenged with those 110 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: structural or structural shopping challenges that consumers are shifting away from. Okay, 111 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,599 Speaker 1: before you go, I gotta I asked this question every 112 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,479 Speaker 1: year review what's the what's the to get item this year? 113 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,359 Speaker 1: What's the one item I have to buy for the 114 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: holiday shopping season? The PS five is still on a 115 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 1: lot of shoppers which lost so I think it's electronics 116 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: and toys. Electronics or toys are still at the top 117 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:44,039 Speaker 1: of which lift and gift cards. People want gift cards, 118 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: That's what I'll get you then put them always a pleasure. 119 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Put them gals, senior retail analysts with 120 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence and just to hand. On Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, 121 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 1: Britain's Finance minister will finally officially on Bailer's bunchet. I'm 122 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: John Tucker, DNCY is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreaking weekend. 123 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 1: Are global looking ahead of the tom stories for investors 124 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: in the coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. 125 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: Up later in the program busy time in Asia as 126 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 1: we gear up for the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. But first, 127 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: almost three weeks later than planned, Britain's Finance minister will 128 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: finally unveil he his budget on Thursday. Jeremy Hunt, along 129 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 1: with the Prime Minister Rishi Sunac, need to balance the 130 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 1: books and convince markets there won't be a repeat of 131 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: the previous government's mistakes that sent guilt markets into meltdown. 132 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: From Warlet's into London bringing Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Steven 133 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 1: Carol John Jeremy Hunt might have been spooked by the 134 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: Halloween date his budget was originally set for, but in 135 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 1: the coming days he might get a chance to scare 136 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 1: us all anyway. With the gloomy economic outlook that the 137 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: UK is facing. We've been well warned the situation is grim. 138 00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 1: The Bank of England's forecasting eighteen months of recession and 139 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: the fiscal gap that needs to be plugged in this 140 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: budget has estimated at more than thirty billion pounds. To 141 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 1: look ahead to Watson Store, I'm joined by our UK 142 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: correspondent Lizzie Burden. Lizzie set the scene for us. It's 143 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 1: it's been called an artem statement, but it's a pretty 144 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: wintry backdrop. Our colleague Katherine Griffiths has reported that the 145 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 1: Chancellor told a group of senior business people that this 146 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: would be really interesting bleep if he wasn't in the 147 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:28,679 Speaker 1: middle of it. You've got double digit inflation strikes across 148 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 1: sectors and the Bank of England forecasting a recession, though 149 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 1: how deep it's going to be is going to depend 150 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: on how high interest rates will rise. Now the Chancellor, 151 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: Jeremy Hunt and the Prime Minister Richie Snack have made 152 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 1: very clear there are eyewatering ly difficult decisions ahead if 153 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 1: they want to plug this hole in the public finances. 154 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: Some would say that hole isn't real, it doesn't have 155 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: to be plugged, but you'll remember the market turmoil that 156 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: followed Liz trust Is mini budget in September, in large 157 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 1: part due to the raft of unfunded tax cuts that 158 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:02,440 Speaker 1: she and her chancellor, then Quasi Quarsteng proposed. But the 159 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: bottom line is they need to boost growth, help the 160 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,959 Speaker 1: most vulnerable people through the cost of living crisis without 161 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: adding to inflation. I want to tackle this idea of 162 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 1: how much information we're getting in advance of the budget 163 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 1: as well and the run up to Thursday's announcement, there 164 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: has been a plethora of reports in the media about 165 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: what sorts of measures we might be getting. This is 166 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 1: something they see that you and I discussed what pamer. 167 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 1: Gordon's chief economists Simon French, He's very against the way 168 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: these leaks are happening and says that it has a 169 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 1: visible chilling effect on UK economic activity. There are areas 170 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: that are sensitive to changing tax rates, changing funding for 171 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 1: infrastructure projects. This run up to every fiscal event does 172 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 1: move activity to the right. Now, you could say that 173 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 1: only for a couple of weeks, but this stuff is 174 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: I feel like symptomatic of a broader malaise that has 175 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 1: overtaken UK politics in my view, which is this rotating 176 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: door between the special advisor community and the journalist community, 177 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 1: and they're all trying to keep each other happy by 178 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 1: leaking stories. This leak culture up at a hair up 179 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: ahead of a fiscal event has real world implications that 180 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:14,079 Speaker 1: I do think if you're in the Westminster bubble, it's 181 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 1: you sometimes lose sight of Okay. So that's the view 182 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:18,559 Speaker 1: of Simon French from Pioneer Gordon when he spoke to 183 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,319 Speaker 1: us a couple of days ago, Lizzie, that's Simon's point 184 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 1: of view on that issue. Of course, we're very keen 185 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: to see what sort of things are being floated, what 186 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 1: are the controversial ideas that are being battered around at 187 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 1: the moment. Well, first off, Simon's not wrong. Business leaders 188 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 1: are frustrated by all the leaks, especially about potential tax 189 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: rises on dividends and capital gains, because they do have 190 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: real world consequences for investment in cash hungry startups. The 191 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:46,840 Speaker 1: way the former Pizza Express boss put it, Hugh Osmond, 192 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: was it's as if every day they set a new 193 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 1: hair running. He said, it's lazy, it's laden with unintended consequences. 194 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: So that's the comms in terms of the meat of 195 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 1: the budget some measures that you could see would be 196 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 1: an increased windfall tax on energy profits, which would be 197 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: extended in terms of time from and expanded to include 198 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 1: energy generators. That would expect upset Tories who think that 199 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 1: the state shouldn't punish business for success. You could also 200 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: see a freeze on the foreign aid budget. That's going 201 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: to invite criticism that the UK is abandoning its ambitions 202 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: as a world leader. And then there's the thorny issue 203 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:30,679 Speaker 1: of whether to raise pensions and benefits in line with inflation. 204 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 1: But if you look at who Rishi Sonacs appointed as 205 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 1: Work and Pension Secretary male Stride, he's expressed that he 206 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 1: thinks they should rise in line with inflation and he's 207 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 1: a key sooner and lots of difficult decisions being made 208 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 1: as well. That this statement will also be a chance 209 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:47,839 Speaker 1: for Issy Snacs government to set out some of its 210 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:51,439 Speaker 1: priorities for the economy. Plenty of industry is very interested 211 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 1: in what's going to be said. One that will be 212 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 1: listening closely is the financial sector, very key to the 213 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: City of London. We've been talking to Miles Selleck about this. 214 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: He's from the industry Group the City UK. Reflecting the 215 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: conversations that we've had with international counterparts and other potential 216 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 1: investors in the UK. What people are looking for is stability, 217 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 1: They're looking for predictability. I think the UK has been 218 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: seen from a political perspective is just a little bit 219 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: too exciting, certainly since six and the Brexit vote and 220 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: the sort of consequences that have flowed from that, and 221 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: arguably from fourteen and the Scottish independence referendum. So I 222 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 1: think there would be there will be a strong sense 223 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 1: of welcome for being able to know the direction of travel. 224 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 1: On regulation, what that looks like now that the UK 225 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 1: is out of the European Union. What's the vision for 226 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 1: financial and related professional services? Something Richie Sunac set out 227 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 1: quite compellingly in his mention how speech last year? How 228 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: will that be built on and what are we going 229 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 1: to see as we move forward? Also in terms of 230 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 1: potential new deals with other markets. Okay, so that's males 231 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 1: select from the city UK. That's one form of perhaps 232 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 1: pressure that the government will be feeling. It hasn't been 233 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 1: a very easy start to Richie Suonac's premiership either, in 234 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 1: this could potentially be an important moment politically as well. 235 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 1: Talk to us about the politics. Could this be a 236 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 1: reset moment perhaps for the new government. I'm sure Richie 237 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: Sunac would hope to draw a line between himself and 238 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 1: Liz Trust given that he spent the whole summer warning 239 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 1: what would happen if tax cuts were launched too soon 240 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 1: without dealing with the immediate problem of inflation. He too 241 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 1: is going to need to boost growth in the medium 242 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: to long term if he wants to be re elected, 243 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 1: but he needs to do that without adding to inflation. 244 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: In fact, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has said that he 245 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: wants to help bring down inflation so that the Bank 246 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 1: of England can raise rates as little as possible to 247 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: minimize the recession the UK faces. Now Hunt and Sunac 248 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 1: are being accused of managing Britain's decline, being too pessimistic 249 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: about UK growth, and you could say that the Bank 250 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 1: of England's messaging has been in too excessively gloomy. The 251 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 1: banks forecast this long recession if rates follow market expectations, 252 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 1: but that nuance was seemingly lost on most of the 253 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: national newspapers. So you have to ask whether the man 254 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 1: in the street is going to be too gloomy as 255 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: a result. Of the messaging outside the Bank of England. Likewise, 256 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: with the Treasury, economists are asking whether the Treasury is 257 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 1: going to raise taxes and cut spending too much in 258 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 1: order to leave itself headroom in case growth underwhelms so 259 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: that it has enough left in the kitty for pre 260 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: election giveaways. And the question really is is the Treasury 261 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: creating unnecessary pain? One of the many many questions will 262 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: be hoping to get answers to on Thursday when the Chancellor, 263 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: Jeremy Hunter takes to his feet to deliver the autumn statements. 264 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: Thanks for our correspondent and Lizzie Burden forward those insights. 265 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll in London. You can catch us every 266 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 1: weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, beginning at six 267 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 1: am in London and one am on Wall Street. John Stephen, 268 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: Thanks live just ahead on Bloomberg day Break weekend Global 269 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 1: leaders gathering in Asia for the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. 270 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from the 271 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg eleven three 272 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: oh to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one 273 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 1: O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to 274 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: the country, Sirius XM Channel one nineteen to London, d 275 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 1: A B Digital Radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg 276 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: Business Act and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg 277 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 1: day Break Weekend. I'm John Tucker in New York with 278 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 1: your global look ahead of the top stories for investors 279 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: in the coming week. Movers and shakers gathering in Asia. 280 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: We have the Guy Getting taking place in the coming 281 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: days in Bali, Indonesia, and US China relations also in 282 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: focus there. We also have another big gathering in Asia 283 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: just about underway, and for more on that, let's go 284 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 1: to Hong Kong and Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Brian Curtis 285 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 1: and his colleague Doug Prisner. John. The fifth annual Bloomberg 286 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 1: New Economy Forum gets underway in the coming week in Singapore. 287 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 1: It comes at a delicate time for the global economy. 288 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: Inflation is at a forty year high in many countries. 289 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:25,480 Speaker 1: We know that war continues to rage in Ukraine and 290 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: food security is very much in question. It's in question 291 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: because food supplies are dwindling and costs are skyrocketing. Supply 292 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 1: chains have been broken and output has been crippled by 293 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 1: labor shortages. Policymakers and investors are looking for innovative ideas 294 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: to break the chain, and as such the forum comes 295 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: at a very opportune time. Joining us now Bloomberg's Eric Shatzker, 296 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 1: who is in Singapore for the forum. Eric, always a pleasure, 297 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for helping us set the stage for 298 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: this year's any f Let's begin with a view from 299 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 1: thirty thousand feet, so to speak. New economy, big picture, 300 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: no doubt, and I imagine that a lot of this 301 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 1: is going to focus on the intersection between government and 302 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:09,679 Speaker 1: the private sector. Can you touch upon some of the 303 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 1: key themes up for discussion? I would say that one 304 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 1: theme we will be tackling in earnest and absolutely cannot ignore, 305 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:23,400 Speaker 1: is the rising tension level between the United States and China. 306 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:25,959 Speaker 1: And of course this isn't a new story. The tension 307 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 1: level has been rising for some time. But with President 308 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:33,159 Speaker 1: she having cemented control over the Chinese Communist Party at 309 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 1: the recent Congress and the Biden administration having imposed new 310 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: controls on the export of advanced technology to China, UH, 311 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: this situation has been thrown into perhaps sharper relief. Then 312 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 1: we've seen it in maybe since the early nineteen seventies, 313 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: because it casts a shadow over everything in this part 314 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 1: of the world, and it's just something impossible to ignore. 315 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 1: You're right. And it's interesting that you mentioned that has 316 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 1: been with us because you remember even the first one. 317 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: We were supposed to do the first an F in 318 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 1: Beijing and it had to get switched to Singapore, and 319 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 1: we went to Singapore for that first one. So US 320 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 1: China relations has tended to intervene really even back in 321 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:21,159 Speaker 1: that time where when Donald Trump was was waging his 322 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,959 Speaker 1: uh sort of trade war with China. But there's some 323 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:27,880 Speaker 1: other big issues that weigh in as well. Inflation. I'm 324 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: thinking that inflation could be having a big impact as 325 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 1: well on companies trying to deal with, say setting targets 326 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 1: for carbon reduction and for spending and green technologies and 327 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: such uh and and this is this makes it a 328 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 1: very difficult time to outlay a lot of capital. Oh, 329 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: it certainly does. It's a very delicate time. It's one 330 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:49,119 Speaker 1: of the themes that we will be exploring at the 331 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 1: New Economy Forum with some of the world's largest and 332 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 1: most powerful investors I would name among them cal doon 333 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:58,120 Speaker 1: A Lebark from Mubatla, which is of course the Emirati 334 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: Sovereign Wealth Fund. We also have Neil Sheen who who 335 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 1: is the founder and CEO effectively of Sequoia, the man 336 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 1: managing partner excuse me of Sequoia China, one of the 337 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 1: world's foremost venture capital investors. We have Limb chow Kat 338 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 1: who is the CEO of g I C which is 339 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 1: the Singaporean one of the two Singaporean sovereign wealth funds. 340 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 1: John Graham from the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Raphael 341 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 1: Aren't from the Future Fund of Australia, yet another sovereign 342 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 1: wealth fund. These are the capital pools that have to 343 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 1: make decisions right now about how much they're willing to 344 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 1: plow into renewable energy and sustainability, and the pressures uh 345 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 1: that inflation is creating for the rest of the world 346 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 1: is having a real consequences for those investment decisions. What 347 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: we're hoping to find out at the New Economy Form 348 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,880 Speaker 1: is that some of these sovereign wealth pools remain committed 349 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 1: to making investments in carbon reduction, for example, and renewable 350 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,720 Speaker 1: energy because if they falter, then there's there's there's a 351 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 1: good chants that we could throw net zero by out 352 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,399 Speaker 1: the window. Well, the timing of the n e F 353 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,879 Speaker 1: is such that it's so closely follows Cop seven. And 354 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 1: I'm curious to hear about the momentum that may be 355 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,639 Speaker 1: building in the community that you just described here. Is 356 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: there greater appetite in the investment community for opportunities in 357 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: the green space now? Is there some enthusiasm building? You know? 358 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,600 Speaker 1: I would say, Doug that yes, Uh, it's it's It's 359 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: as much of an imperative as ever before, but it's 360 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:29,919 Speaker 1: a much more complicated and challenging picture because of the 361 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 1: macroeconomic headwinds And it's not just inflation. That's the consequences 362 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 1: of inflation, not just rising prices, but higher the hurdle. 363 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,919 Speaker 1: The hurdle is so much higher now. A lot of 364 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:44,679 Speaker 1: fodder for interesting conversation, no doubt. Eric, thank you so 365 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:46,879 Speaker 1: much for being with us and helping us set the 366 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 1: stage for the fifth annual Bloomberg New Economy Forum. Bloomberg's 367 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 1: Eric Shatzker joining us from Singapore. I'm Doug Krisner along 368 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 1: with Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. You can catch us 369 00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 1: weekdays here for Bloomberg Daybreak Aisia, beginning at seven am 370 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:05,160 Speaker 1: in Hong Kong, six pm on Wall Street, John Brian 371 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:08,120 Speaker 1: and Doc thanks a lot. Just ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. 372 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,879 Speaker 1: What to watch for in the coming week and weeks 373 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 1: as we moved closer to the presidential campaigns. I'm John Tucker. 374 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Are global 375 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 1: look ahead at the top stories for investors in the 376 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 1: coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. Lots of 377 00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,399 Speaker 1: surprises in the mid terms and some rancor between former 378 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 1: President Trump and Florida Governor Ron De Santis to Trump 379 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: last week lashing out and his potential competitors in the 380 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 1: presidential race. Trump at seventy one, Rond sanctimonious at Mike 381 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 1: Pence at seven. Mike's doing better than I thought. That's 382 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 1: sort of the stage center movedwise when it comes to 383 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 1: Republicans in the post mid term world. For more about 384 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: all of it, including how things are stacking up for 385 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: Democrats in four as well, let'stend to our Bloomberg newsroom 386 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 1: in Washington and Amy Morris, Amy all right, thank you, John, 387 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 1: and joining me now Bloomberg Government Senior Elections reporter Greg Jero. Greg, 388 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 1: You've been following this very closely with momentum for President Biden, 389 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:24,160 Speaker 1: and he's talking now a little more about there's also 390 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 1: been some disarray among Republicans. They say they'll be able 391 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:30,199 Speaker 1: to work some of it out. Let's start from the 392 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:34,080 Speaker 1: very beginning, Rondo Santis claiming this huge victory in the 393 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 1: gubernatorial race down in Florida. Let's hear what he had 394 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: to say, and we'll talk about it. On the other side, 395 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 1: we offer a ray of hope that better days still 396 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 1: lie ahead. All right, So Rondo Santa's talking about some 397 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 1: of the traction that he's got. How much does he 398 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:51,919 Speaker 1: really have to play with here? Well, he was a 399 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: big winner from Tuesday and was otherwise a good overperformance 400 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 1: by Democrats and underperformance by Republicans around the country. To 401 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 1: Santis was re elected by nineteen percentage points in Florida, 402 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: which is a very stunning margin in a state that 403 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,880 Speaker 1: not too long ago was seen as the quintessential swing state. 404 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,880 Speaker 1: Was the biggest win by a Florida gubernatorial candidate since 405 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 1: Santis was winning areas like Miami Dade County in South Florida, 406 00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:20,200 Speaker 1: heavily Hispanic area. He was winning Palm Beach County, a 407 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 1: very Democratic leaning county. So this is a big win 408 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 1: for De Santis. And given that he's a Republican governor 409 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,639 Speaker 1: in a state that will have thirty electoral votes in 410 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,879 Speaker 1: the election, if he can help lockdown Florida for Republicans, 411 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 1: he'll be at the top, if not near the top 412 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:43,160 Speaker 1: of Republican Republican preference voters for the election if one 413 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,959 Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump does not run well. That was what 414 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,119 Speaker 1: I was going to ask about, because it almost sounds 415 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 1: as though De Santis could be dethroning Donald Trump, at 416 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,560 Speaker 1: least when it comes to who is the kingmaker in 417 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 1: the GOP, because there were plenty of Trump backed candidates 418 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 1: on Tuesday who did not win. That's right. Trump did 419 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,320 Speaker 1: not have a good election night on Tuesday. Uh mem 420 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 1: and Oz in Pennsylvania lost a key Senate race to 421 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 1: John Fetterman, and in some key house races, some Trump 422 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 1: alligned candidates lost districts that maybe other Republican candidates would 423 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 1: have held. So Trump does not look good coming out 424 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 1: of this election, although he is it seems clear he's 425 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,240 Speaker 1: likely to run for a third time for president. The 426 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 1: big question will be does Rhonda Santis run against him 427 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 1: in the Republican primary. If you look at Republican preference polls, 428 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,440 Speaker 1: it's Trump and to Santis, and then there's a big 429 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 1: fall off with everyone else. We didn't see a one 430 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 1: on one race against Trump in twenty sixteen. He benefited 431 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 1: somewhat by the divided Republican opposition. But will we see 432 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,639 Speaker 1: a one on one race between Trump and de Santis. 433 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 1: We'll probably find out not too long from now. I'm 434 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,639 Speaker 1: wondering if this also helps to embolden other Republican candidates 435 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 1: who might be looking at the White House. I'm thinking 436 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 1: of Maryland Governor Larry Hogan. He is, of course the 437 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 1: outgoing governor of Maryland, but he is also indicated, Hey, 438 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,880 Speaker 1: look at how these terms turned out. It seems as 439 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 1: though there might be some room for me in the 440 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 1: Republican Party. Yes, it will be interesting to see which 441 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,439 Speaker 1: Republicans who have wanted to be president or considered becoming president, 442 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: or at least running for that office, will uh decide 443 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 1: to at least do the early spadework that candidates often do, 444 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 1: like traveling to Ohio and New Hampshire and contributing to candidates. 445 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,879 Speaker 1: One critic of Trump who has run for president before 446 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,679 Speaker 1: and who's been who donated to Republican candidates late in 447 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 1: the campaign I noticed was former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. 448 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 1: He was very critical of Trump after Tuesday's election results. 449 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 1: So if Trump doesn't run, I think all bets are 450 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,399 Speaker 1: off about who gets in. I think it'd be a 451 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,280 Speaker 1: free for all. But I think I am also wondering 452 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:44,399 Speaker 1: who other Republicans besides Rhoda Santis, who's mentioned frequently the 453 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 1: presidential sweepstakes, what other Republicans would decide to run against Trump? 454 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,119 Speaker 1: Should the the ex president make that third bid for president, 455 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,720 Speaker 1: as he seems likely to do. Yeah, I'm wondering about 456 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 1: that too. If this indicates that perhaps he would not 457 00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 1: be the choice for the GOP to run for the 458 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 1: White House. At the same time, would this be an 459 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,880 Speaker 1: opportunity for people to sort of hang onto those coattails, 460 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 1: maybe a vice presidential bid because he has also indicated 461 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 1: that Pence won't be his running mate. Pence certainly won't 462 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 1: be his running mate, and you want to look for 463 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 1: maybe the next generation of Republican leaders so we'll see 464 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 1: who that when when the when the smoke clears um 465 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 1: After that, we got final results from the election, who 466 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 1: might be in the running for president and vice president, 467 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,080 Speaker 1: and we are talking about how the midterms may have 468 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 1: shaped the general election. We are talking with Bloomberg Government 469 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,600 Speaker 1: senior elections reporter Greg Jarol. Want to shift over Greg 470 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 1: to the Democratic side, turning our attention now to California 471 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:48,240 Speaker 1: Governor Gavin Newsom. After the polls closed on election night, 472 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,440 Speaker 1: he spoke at a watch party at the Citizen Hotel 473 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 1: in Sacramento. We have a responsibility as California's to do 474 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 1: more about what we did tonight, to continue to assert 475 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,920 Speaker 1: our values, which we hold dear We believe their Americans 476 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: is certainly California values. Now, does he Greg have a 477 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 1: clearer path to the Democratic presidential nomination than maybe de 478 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,400 Speaker 1: Santist does on the Republican side? Like, how does that breakdown? 479 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: I don't think he has a clearer path than the Santists, 480 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,199 Speaker 1: if only because I think Joe Biden is clearly going 481 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 1: to run for re election again and maybe the overperformance 482 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,199 Speaker 1: by Democrats in the midterm election may tamp down whatever 483 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 1: chatter that may be out there floating out there about 484 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,679 Speaker 1: would Biden run again or not, or he would be 485 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,399 Speaker 1: challenged in the primary. I don't expect Gavin Newsom to 486 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 1: challenge Joe Biden the Democratic primaries in UM. But you know, 487 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom is the governor of what would be the 488 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 1: fourth largest economy in the world, about the size of Germany, 489 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 1: and so just like the governor of Florida, you think 490 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: the governor of a large state like California, just being 491 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 1: the chief executive of a huge state, but the huge 492 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,560 Speaker 1: economy would be automatically mentioned in presidential sweepstakes. It's been 493 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,720 Speaker 1: a while since we've had the California governor mentioned as 494 00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:03,919 Speaker 1: a possible presidential candidate. UM. You know, Jerry Brown had 495 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 1: already run what three times when he was governor for 496 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 1: the second time, Arnold Schwarzenegger was ineligible to run, Gray 497 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 1: Davis was too unpopular, Pete Wilson probably too moderate to 498 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,440 Speaker 1: win the Republican presidential nomination. And you know, not too 499 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 1: long before that, you had Ronald Reagan who used the 500 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,359 Speaker 1: governor California governorship to launch himself to the presidency. So 501 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,400 Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom, I think, is going to be mentioned as 502 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 1: a potential presidential candidate, if not four maybe, if only 503 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,120 Speaker 1: because he is the chief executive of what would be 504 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,720 Speaker 1: the fourth or fifth largest economy in the world, a 505 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 1: three point five trillion dollar economy. Is that, though, Gregg, 506 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 1: one of the issues that faces the Democratic Party right now. 507 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 1: You have someone like Joe Biden, that all, not all 508 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 1: Democrats are a percent in love with having Joe Biden 509 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 1: run again. And at the same time, the next guy 510 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,000 Speaker 1: who maybe in line, the next sort of air apparent 511 00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:58,560 Speaker 1: and I'm using air quotes here, would be Gavin Newsom, 512 00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,840 Speaker 1: who doesn't really have a shot against somebody like Joe Biden. 513 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 1: Is that is that the issue that they're looking for 514 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: the leadership that they haven't quite found yet. They don't 515 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:10,600 Speaker 1: have a Bill Clinton, they don't have a Barack Obama, right. 516 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,240 Speaker 1: I think in the Democratic circles and the Democratic Party 517 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 1: certainly with when it comes to the presidency and also 518 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 1: for congressional leadership, you have, you know, Joe Biden, you 519 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 1: have Nancy Pelosi, Stenny Hoyer, James Kleiburne who have been 520 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 1: around for some time, and there's clearly a lot of 521 00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 1: pent up ambition in Democratic circles about who is going 522 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,800 Speaker 1: to be in that next vanguard of Democratic Party leadership, 523 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 1: so not just for Congress, but the presidency as well. Um. Yes, 524 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 1: I mean, we can't escape the fact that Joe Biden 525 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,400 Speaker 1: will be almost eighty two years old by the time 526 00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 1: of the election, but I think Democrats would welcome a 527 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 1: rematch between Biden and Donald Trump. If Trump decides to 528 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,120 Speaker 1: run again, as it looks like he will, then I 529 00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 1: think you know who's going to be in the next 530 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 1: um uh next kind of a group of future Democratic 531 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,600 Speaker 1: leaders who would run for president. I think maybe you 532 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,960 Speaker 1: look at the two midterm elections, you look at which 533 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 1: governors were elected for the Democrats. Gretchen Whitmer was re 534 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 1: elected in Michigan, a key swing state, so I think 535 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 1: you probably look there at who who won key governorships 536 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:14,720 Speaker 1: and maybe even key U. S. Senate races. Ino, let 537 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,760 Speaker 1: me ask you about some of the strategy. I want 538 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 1: to pick your brain if if you were a political strategist, Greg, 539 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 1: would you recommend to former President Trump to not make 540 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 1: that announcement that he will be running again. You know, 541 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 1: he's been teasing for a while now that he's going 542 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:33,520 Speaker 1: to make this big announcement on November fifte but that 543 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 1: was before there was going to be this runoff for 544 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:39,800 Speaker 1: the Senate in Georgia, and there may be some concern 545 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 1: about sort of sucking all the air out of the 546 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 1: room if he makes that announcement while that's going on. 547 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,040 Speaker 1: What would you recommend, here's a political strategist. If I 548 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 1: were aligned with Trump, I might recommend the ex president 549 00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,000 Speaker 1: to hold off. Before I let you go, I want 550 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:53,840 Speaker 1: to talk to you a little bit about the historical 551 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,560 Speaker 1: implications and what we saw over this past week with 552 00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 1: the mid terms. To me, just somebody who's here this 553 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 1: sort of on a superficial level for decades, this seems 554 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:11,400 Speaker 1: like a really unusually intense and um raucous mid term. 555 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,240 Speaker 1: I want to know what you think about it and 556 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 1: why is it in this place in history. Well, this 557 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,160 Speaker 1: mid term was really extraordinary. It was actually a pretty 558 00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 1: good over performance by the White Houses Party. In mid 559 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 1: term elections, you have more of the energy and enthusiasm 560 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 1: tends to lie with the opposition party, And in mid 561 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,680 Speaker 1: term elections since the end of World War Two, the 562 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,560 Speaker 1: average result has been the White Houses Party losing an 563 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 1: average of twenty six seats in the House. It's going 564 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,520 Speaker 1: to be one of the close most closely divided US 565 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:45,000 Speaker 1: houses in in history, in American history. Yes, alright, Greg, 566 00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:46,760 Speaker 1: thank you so much for bringing us up to speed 567 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:50,040 Speaker 1: on this. We appreciate it. Thank you. Bloomberg Government Senior 568 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,800 Speaker 1: Elections Reporter Greg Darau. That's what's going on in the 569 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 1: nation's capital. For more of our political news coverage, tune 570 00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 1: into Balance of Power with David Weston weekdays at noon 571 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,200 Speaker 1: Wall Street Time, and Sound On with Joe Matthew weekdays 572 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,800 Speaker 1: at five pm Wall Street Time. Right here on Bloomberg Radio, 573 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:10,840 Speaker 1: I'm Amy Morris and this is Bloomberg John. Amy Morris 574 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:15,280 Speaker 1: reporting from our bloombergs room in Washington. Amy, thanks a lot, 575 00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 1: and that does it for this edition of Bloomberg day 576 00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 1: Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five am 577 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,320 Speaker 1: Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas and 578 00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 1: the news you need to start your day. I'm John Tucker, 579 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:28,840 Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg