Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Kiloomberg eleventh to Washington, d C,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston Bloomberg twelve hundreds to San Francisco Bloomberg
Speaker 1: nine sixty to the Country Series Exam Channel one nineteen
Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus Appen Bloomberg
Speaker 1: dot com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Hey, good morning. I'm
Speaker 1: Karen Moscow, along with Tom Keene and Michael McKee and
Speaker 1: the opening gal brought to you by s C. I
Speaker 1: have evolving investor and regulatory demands affected your investment firms
Speaker 1: operational readiness, Imagine transforming your business with SEIS Global Platform
Speaker 1: at se i C dot com slash imagine. And stocks
Speaker 1: are higher at the open. The SMP five hundred up
Speaker 1: to tenths per cent or three points to nineteen thirty three.
Speaker 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average up two towns per center thirty
Speaker 1: points to sixteen thousand, five hundred fifteen, the nasdacts up
Speaker 1: three tenths per center twelve points to forty five fifty
Speaker 1: five ten. Your treasury up seven thirty seconds. The YELD
Speaker 1: one point seven two percent yield on a two year
Speaker 1: point seven two percent NIMAX scrude oil down eight tens
Speaker 1: percent or twenty seven cents to thirty eight a barrel.
Speaker 1: Comax schoold is down six tenths percent or seven dollars
Speaker 1: twenty cents to twelve thirty one eighty announced and the
Speaker 1: euro a dollar oh nine nine four the end one
Speaker 1: twelve point eight six. Tom and Mike Karen thanks so much.
Speaker 1: He is upon us. Joseph Wisenhal I noticed the success
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Markets the other day, like Facebook follows on Twitter.
Speaker 1: Fo's really getting some tractions great? You know, I think
Speaker 1: them the content that we produced at Bloomberg, the stories
Speaker 1: that we do the TV, there's a there's a great
Speaker 1: appetite for it on the internet. Sophisticated market and economics commentary,
Speaker 1: people like have you seen his entourage Michael McKee, It
Speaker 1: stretches halfway to Park Avenue. It's amazing. Yeah, it's got
Speaker 1: drawn followers. The entourage on negative interest rates is extraordinary. Um,
Speaker 1: you say there's some I'm out there. I don't see
Speaker 1: it because are we gonna see from where you sit?
Speaker 1: Is there a prediction of ever more negative interest rates? Well?
Speaker 1: I just think it's striking how fast the conversation changes
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that there are still anxieties about
Speaker 1: where this leads to what it does to banks in
Speaker 1: the long term. But look, two weeks ago, you couldn't uh,
Speaker 1: you know, swing a cat without seeing a story about
Speaker 1: markets revolting against negative interest rates concerns that they were
Speaker 1: really bad for the economy. Now I haven't seen one
Speaker 1: in weeks. What's changed nothing. The only thing that's changes
Speaker 1: that markets have gone up, and so people have changed
Speaker 1: their story, but they're still with us um. I think
Speaker 1: one of the things that's really striking the japan forty
Speaker 1: year government bond. I didn't even know, it's last night
Speaker 1: that Japan had a forty year. Everyone knows there's a
Speaker 1: thirty year. The yield on the forty year now has
Speaker 1: fallen below one percent. I mean, it seems conceivable that
Speaker 1: in a month will be back here talking about how
Speaker 1: Japan has negative rates out to alredy years. Absolutely extraordinary.
Speaker 1: A lot of this decline and yield coming since Japan.
Speaker 1: The Bank of Japan went to negative rates. They've got
Speaker 1: a bond, it's gonna mature in March of two thousand
Speaker 1: fifty five, will be there and will you will you
Speaker 1: take one per cent on your money until I remember
Speaker 1: my grand my grandfather showing me his bond blodder the
Speaker 1: first time he got a three percent coupon, and he
Speaker 1: said that was unimaginable. Together it was, So you really
Speaker 1: wonder do we go back to that length of time.
Speaker 1: What are you observing about G twenty this weekend? We've
Speaker 1: done very little on it and it's Thursday. But is
Speaker 1: there any buzz other than a junk in a photo up? No.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think a few weeks ago some people
Speaker 1: had talked about this idea of some coordinated global currency
Speaker 1: intervention that just seems so far fetched. It doesn't feel
Speaker 1: like anything on that front is going to happen. But
Speaker 1: you know, again, these ideas were put forth during what
Speaker 1: felt like a period of much more panic. It just
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like there's the political will, particularly in the
Speaker 1: United States, to have the FED or any or the
Speaker 1: Treasury or anyone else extend political capital to try to
Speaker 1: manipulate markets this way. So there might be some commentary
Speaker 1: about currencies, but right now it doesn't feel like we're
Speaker 1: gonna get anything. It's internally inconsistent in the sense that
Speaker 1: different countries don't want the dollar to go different ways.
Speaker 1: For their own reason, so it wouldn't wouldn't do anybody
Speaker 1: any good. But it does get to the point you
Speaker 1: were making with negative interest rates that a lot of
Speaker 1: this seems to be people who got so used to
Speaker 1: regulators or or supervisors the FED UH saving them somehow,
Speaker 1: that they can't imagine a world where they may be
Speaker 1: on their own, and so the minute the markets go down,
Speaker 1: you got to do something for us. Yeah. I think
Speaker 1: that's also one of the really short of remarkable stories
Speaker 1: in the last over weeks, how calm the FED has
Speaker 1: been during the panic. It never gave any strong hints
Speaker 1: of a backtrack. It's just been to steady. What they
Speaker 1: keep saying the same thing, data dependent, data dependent, and
Speaker 1: the FED has never really given any inclination that they're
Speaker 1: gonna suddenly freeze up and reverse course or anything like.
Speaker 1: You're just joining us, Joe Wise and fall of Bloomberg
Speaker 1: markets with us across many platforms. Joe, this is an
Speaker 1: important question and timely for you. I'm on the war
Speaker 1: path about media types particularly, but a lot of other
Speaker 1: people as well, but media types who personalize the behavior
Speaker 1: idea that the markets are quote unquote telling institutions like
Speaker 1: the FED what to do. I all of my theory
Speaker 1: and finance and investment says that is total malarkey. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you have lived this first business insider, And here there's personal.
Speaker 1: The anthropomorphiz all of the markets is very strange. It's
Speaker 1: usually people projecting their own biases onto what they would like,
Speaker 1: and then they read that into the markets. Look, obviously,
Speaker 1: investors have ideas. Investors have ideas about whether long or
Speaker 1: short investors want to see this policy or that policy.
Speaker 1: But then when it's all synthesized into a market, into
Speaker 1: a price, it's really ludicrous to say, oh, there's some
Speaker 1: clear signal, there's some clear message that markets are telling us.
Speaker 1: I think often that just the idea is very strange
Speaker 1: to me. Mike and I fight this every day, but
Speaker 1: but it's really come up recently, and Mike, I think
Speaker 1: in a lot of conversations, this idea that the market
Speaker 1: has a mind. The markets have to get Stanley, for sure.
Speaker 1: Everybody keeps going back to the old formulation about how
Speaker 1: many recessions of the market has called and FED has
Speaker 1: always opposed negative interest rates, and how it ever became
Speaker 1: a meme that they would be considering it. I have
Speaker 1: no idea, Yeah, well, I mean, I think the FED
Speaker 1: takes an academic approach, and they were asked, is this
Speaker 1: something that you've studied? And well they I mean they
Speaker 1: said yeah, they said sure, among all the different ideas,
Speaker 1: of course, we've studied everything. And then people took that
Speaker 1: as a message perhaps that it might be imminent. But
Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like it, especially given how inconsistent that
Speaker 1: would be with the data, with the solid CPI data
Speaker 1: that we got last week, the ongoing jobs data. The
Speaker 1: idea that we're at some risk of the FED dramatically
Speaker 1: reversing course and going negative doesn't jibe on multiple levels.
Speaker 1: Gold New Bowl market, what's the research? What are your
Speaker 1: eighteen stories on the say? You know, the research on
Speaker 1: gold says that it's basically all the function of real
Speaker 1: interest rates. And so if you think that we're going
Speaker 1: to go into another serious easing cycle then and we're
Speaker 1: going to get higher volatility than sure, go long gold.
Speaker 1: And if you don't think we're going to go into
Speaker 1: a real easing cycle or some sort of crater, then
Speaker 1: it's hard to make an argument for gold. But it
Speaker 1: does seem like it's that simple. It's an expressed view
Speaker 1: on once an area or the other Joey wasn't thank
Speaker 1: you so much on Cambor Markets stopping by. They look
Speaker 1: for him on what four four PM, three fifty nine
Speaker 1: thirty walls three times. He will darken the door of
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television as well green on the screen. And it's
Speaker 1: sort of massively in determinate market. Why isn't fault working
Speaker 1: six hours today? Um? Up fifty five? The Vicks twenty
Speaker 1: point seven one, And it's just sort of like Mike,
Speaker 1: It's just it's just sort of there. Yeah, but it
Speaker 1: just sort of their day. I think people might be
Speaker 1: ready for that. Yeah, I agree. I mean there's a
Speaker 1: nice tone to it. We did not restoration hardware. David
Speaker 1: Wilson was an important uh comment on restoration hardware. Um
Speaker 1: uh really having a tough time of it. Let me
Speaker 1: our h is the symbol. I got a five day
Speaker 1: chart up. Yeah, we're fifty two wish and right now
Speaker 1: we're enjoying thirty nine is can we use plunge? No?
Speaker 1: Do it? They think it's sort of a well, look
Speaker 1: that's a that's a big drop. We'll have to look
Speaker 1: at that restoration harder. We'll look at that soon. It
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Speaker 1: Houston will be the sign of tonight's Republican presidential debate,
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Speaker 1: is a state of emergency in Virginia. That's where four
Speaker 1: people were killed after tornadoes damaged homes left thousands without
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Speaker 1: their babies in countries hit by the zeke byers should
Speaker 1: continue to do so and uh look out Hollywood. February,
Speaker 1: China broke the global box office record for a single week,
Speaker 1: five and fifties seven million dollars in ticket sales. These
Speaker 1: are all local films. The big draw there Mermaid, a
Speaker 1: quirky comedy from director Stephen Chow about a mermaid who
Speaker 1: falls in love with the real estate tycoon she sent
Speaker 1: to assassinate the highest grossing film of all time in China.
Speaker 1: Another one, I'm not going to see. Global News twenty
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Speaker 1: world on John Tucker, Tom was that for your Oscar consideration,
Speaker 1: this is not among the films being considered for the
Speaker 1: Oscar Sunday the Oscars your pick reverence, I would say,
Speaker 1: I just a full disclosure from the same on top
Speaker 1: of the story. Yeah, you know, I I gotta catch
Speaker 1: up fast. We're all big short fans and it may
Speaker 1: not wine. We've got a dog in the fight. We
Speaker 1: do have a dog in the fight. Green and Red
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Speaker 1: up forty three points. Continue with this place, Michael McKee
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