WEBVTT - Weisenthal: narrative on negative rates is less negative

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcasting live to New York Kiloomberg eleventh to Washington, d C,

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<v Speaker 1>to tenths per cent or three points to nineteen thirty three.

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<v Speaker 1>Dow Jones Industrial Average up two towns per center thirty

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<v Speaker 1>points to sixteen thousand, five hundred fifteen, the nasdacts up

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<v Speaker 1>five ten. Your treasury up seven thirty seconds. The YELD

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<v Speaker 1>one point seven two percent yield on a two year

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<v Speaker 1>point seven two percent NIMAX scrude oil down eight tens

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<v Speaker 1>percent or twenty seven cents to thirty eight a barrel.

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<v Speaker 1>Comax schoold is down six tenths percent or seven dollars

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<v Speaker 1>twenty cents to twelve thirty one eighty announced and the

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<v Speaker 1>euro a dollar oh nine nine four the end one

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<v Speaker 1>twelve point eight six. Tom and Mike Karen thanks so much.

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<v Speaker 1>He is upon us. Joseph Wisenhal I noticed the success

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<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Markets the other day, like Facebook follows on Twitter.

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<v Speaker 1>Fo's really getting some tractions great? You know, I think

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<v Speaker 1>them the content that we produced at Bloomberg, the stories

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<v Speaker 1>that we do the TV, there's a there's a great

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<v Speaker 1>appetite for it on the internet. Sophisticated market and economics commentary,

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<v Speaker 1>people like have you seen his entourage Michael McKee, It

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<v Speaker 1>stretches halfway to Park Avenue. It's amazing. Yeah, it's got

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<v Speaker 1>drawn followers. The entourage on negative interest rates is extraordinary. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you say there's some I'm out there. I don't see

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<v Speaker 1>it because are we gonna see from where you sit?

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<v Speaker 1>Is there a prediction of ever more negative interest rates? Well?

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<v Speaker 1>I just think it's striking how fast the conversation changes

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think that there are still anxieties about

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<v Speaker 1>where this leads to what it does to banks in

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<v Speaker 1>the long term. But look, two weeks ago, you couldn't uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, swing a cat without seeing a story about

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<v Speaker 1>markets revolting against negative interest rates concerns that they were

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<v Speaker 1>really bad for the economy. Now I haven't seen one

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<v Speaker 1>in weeks. What's changed nothing. The only thing that's changes

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<v Speaker 1>that markets have gone up, and so people have changed

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<v Speaker 1>their story, but they're still with us um. I think

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<v Speaker 1>one of the things that's really striking the japan forty

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<v Speaker 1>year government bond. I didn't even know, it's last night

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<v Speaker 1>that Japan had a forty year. Everyone knows there's a

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<v Speaker 1>thirty year. The yield on the forty year now has

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<v Speaker 1>fallen below one percent. I mean, it seems conceivable that

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<v Speaker 1>in a month will be back here talking about how

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<v Speaker 1>Japan has negative rates out to alredy years. Absolutely extraordinary.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of this decline and yield coming since Japan.

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<v Speaker 1>The Bank of Japan went to negative rates. They've got

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<v Speaker 1>a bond, it's gonna mature in March of two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>fifty five, will be there and will you will you

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<v Speaker 1>take one per cent on your money until I remember

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<v Speaker 1>my grand my grandfather showing me his bond blodder the

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<v Speaker 1>first time he got a three percent coupon, and he

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<v Speaker 1>said that was unimaginable. Together it was, So you really

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<v Speaker 1>wonder do we go back to that length of time.

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<v Speaker 1>What are you observing about G twenty this weekend? We've

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<v Speaker 1>done very little on it and it's Thursday. But is

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<v Speaker 1>there any buzz other than a junk in a photo up? No.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think a few weeks ago some people

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<v Speaker 1>had talked about this idea of some coordinated global currency

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<v Speaker 1>intervention that just seems so far fetched. It doesn't feel

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<v Speaker 1>like anything on that front is going to happen. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, again, these ideas were put forth during what

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<v Speaker 1>felt like a period of much more panic. It just

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't feel like there's the political will, particularly in the

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<v Speaker 1>United States, to have the FED or any or the

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<v Speaker 1>Treasury or anyone else extend political capital to try to

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<v Speaker 1>manipulate markets this way. So there might be some commentary

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<v Speaker 1>about currencies, but right now it doesn't feel like we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna get anything. It's internally inconsistent in the sense that

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<v Speaker 1>different countries don't want the dollar to go different ways.

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<v Speaker 1>For their own reason, so it wouldn't wouldn't do anybody

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<v Speaker 1>any good. But it does get to the point you

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<v Speaker 1>were making with negative interest rates that a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>this seems to be people who got so used to

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<v Speaker 1>regulators or or supervisors the FED UH saving them somehow,

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<v Speaker 1>that they can't imagine a world where they may be

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<v Speaker 1>on their own, and so the minute the markets go down,

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<v Speaker 1>you got to do something for us. Yeah. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's also one of the really short of remarkable stories

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<v Speaker 1>in the last over weeks, how calm the FED has

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<v Speaker 1>been during the panic. It never gave any strong hints

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<v Speaker 1>of a backtrack. It's just been to steady. What they

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<v Speaker 1>keep saying the same thing, data dependent, data dependent, and

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<v Speaker 1>the FED has never really given any inclination that they're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna suddenly freeze up and reverse course or anything like.

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<v Speaker 1>You're just joining us, Joe Wise and fall of Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>markets with us across many platforms. Joe, this is an

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<v Speaker 1>important question and timely for you. I'm on the war

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<v Speaker 1>path about media types particularly, but a lot of other

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<v Speaker 1>people as well, but media types who personalize the behavior

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<v Speaker 1>idea that the markets are quote unquote telling institutions like

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<v Speaker 1>the FED what to do. I all of my theory

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<v Speaker 1>and finance and investment says that is total malarkey. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you have lived this first business insider, And here there's personal.

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<v Speaker 1>The anthropomorphiz all of the markets is very strange. It's

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<v Speaker 1>usually people projecting their own biases onto what they would like,

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<v Speaker 1>and then they read that into the markets. Look, obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>investors have ideas. Investors have ideas about whether long or

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<v Speaker 1>short investors want to see this policy or that policy.

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<v Speaker 1>But then when it's all synthesized into a market, into

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<v Speaker 1>a price, it's really ludicrous to say, oh, there's some

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<v Speaker 1>clear signal, there's some clear message that markets are telling us.

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<v Speaker 1>I think often that just the idea is very strange

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<v Speaker 1>to me. Mike and I fight this every day, but

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<v Speaker 1>but it's really come up recently, and Mike, I think

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<v Speaker 1>in a lot of conversations, this idea that the market

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<v Speaker 1>has a mind. The markets have to get Stanley, for sure.

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<v Speaker 1>Everybody keeps going back to the old formulation about how

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<v Speaker 1>many recessions of the market has called and FED has

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<v Speaker 1>always opposed negative interest rates, and how it ever became

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<v Speaker 1>a meme that they would be considering it. I have

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<v Speaker 1>no idea, Yeah, well, I mean, I think the FED

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<v Speaker 1>takes an academic approach, and they were asked, is this

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<v Speaker 1>something that you've studied? And well they I mean they

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<v Speaker 1>said yeah, they said sure, among all the different ideas,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, we've studied everything. And then people took that

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<v Speaker 1>as a message perhaps that it might be imminent. But

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't feel like it, especially given how inconsistent that

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<v Speaker 1>would be with the data, with the solid CPI data

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<v Speaker 1>that we got last week, the ongoing jobs data. The

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<v Speaker 1>idea that we're at some risk of the FED dramatically

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<v Speaker 1>reversing course and going negative doesn't jibe on multiple levels.

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<v Speaker 1>Gold New Bowl market, what's the research? What are your

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen stories on the say? You know, the research on

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<v Speaker 1>gold says that it's basically all the function of real

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates. And so if you think that we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to go into another serious easing cycle then and we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to get higher volatility than sure, go long gold.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you don't think we're going to go into

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<v Speaker 1>a real easing cycle or some sort of crater, then

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<v Speaker 1>it's hard to make an argument for gold. But it

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<v Speaker 1>does seem like it's that simple. It's an expressed view

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<v Speaker 1>on once an area or the other Joey wasn't thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much on Cambor Markets stopping by. They look

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<v Speaker 1>for him on what four four PM, three fifty nine

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<v Speaker 1>thirty walls three times. He will darken the door of

0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:16.200
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Television as well green on the screen. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>sort of massively in determinate market. Why isn't fault working

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<v Speaker 1>six hours today? Um? Up fifty five? The Vicks twenty

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<v Speaker 1>point seven one, And it's just sort of like Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>It's just it's just sort of there. Yeah, but it

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<v Speaker 1>just sort of their day. I think people might be

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<v Speaker 1>ready for that. Yeah, I agree. I mean there's a

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<v Speaker 1>nice tone to it. We did not restoration hardware. David

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<v Speaker 1>Wilson was an important uh comment on restoration hardware. Um

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<v Speaker 1>uh really having a tough time of it. Let me

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<v Speaker 1>our h is the symbol. I got a five day

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<v Speaker 1>chart up. Yeah, we're fifty two wish and right now

0:08:56.520 --> 0:09:02.559
<v Speaker 1>we're enjoying thirty nine is can we use plunge? No?

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<v Speaker 1>Do it? They think it's sort of a well, look

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<v Speaker 1>that's a that's a big drop. We'll have to look

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<v Speaker 1>at that restoration harder. We'll look at that soon. It

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<v Speaker 1>is bluemark surveillance brought to you by Volvo Cars, White Planes.

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<v Speaker 1>Visit Volvo Cars, White Planes dot Com. Here is John

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<v Speaker 1>Tucker with the latest news headlines and Michael and Tom

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<v Speaker 1>Houston will be the sign of tonight's Republican presidential debate,

0:09:31.480 --> 0:09:34.200
<v Speaker 1>with Donald Trump rivals getting one more chance to try

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<v Speaker 1>to derail the GOP front runner before Super Tuesday. There

0:09:37.840 --> 0:09:40.160
<v Speaker 1>is a state of emergency in Virginia. That's where four

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<v Speaker 1>people were killed after tornadoes damaged homes left thousands without

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<v Speaker 1>power across the state. World Health Organization says women breastfeeding

0:09:47.679 --> 0:09:50.000
<v Speaker 1>their babies in countries hit by the zeke byers should

0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:53.880
<v Speaker 1>continue to do so and uh look out Hollywood. February,

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<v Speaker 1>China broke the global box office record for a single week,

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<v Speaker 1>five and fifties seven million dollars in ticket sales. These

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<v Speaker 1>are all local films. The big draw there Mermaid, a

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<v Speaker 1>quirky comedy from director Stephen Chow about a mermaid who

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<v Speaker 1>falls in love with the real estate tycoon she sent

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<v Speaker 1>to assassinate the highest grossing film of all time in China.

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<v Speaker 1>Another one, I'm not going to see. Global News twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four hours a day, powered by our twenty four hundred

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<v Speaker 1>journalists more than one hundred fifty news bureaus around the

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<v Speaker 1>world on John Tucker, Tom was that for your Oscar consideration,

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<v Speaker 1>this is not among the films being considered for the

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<v Speaker 1>Oscar Sunday the Oscars your pick reverence, I would say,

0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:39.560
<v Speaker 1>I just a full disclosure from the same on top

0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:42.760
<v Speaker 1>of the story. Yeah, you know, I I gotta catch

0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:45.400
<v Speaker 1>up fast. We're all big short fans and it may

0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:47.840
<v Speaker 1>not wine. We've got a dog in the fight. We

0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:49.920
<v Speaker 1>do have a dog in the fight. Green and Red

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<v Speaker 1>in the screen, Hasek wanted down for actually the Dow

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<v Speaker 1>up forty three points. Continue with this place, Michael McKee

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<v Speaker 1>and Tom Keane Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance brought to you

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