1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Kiloomberg eleventh to Washington, d C, 2 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston Bloomberg twelve hundreds to San Francisco Bloomberg 3 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: nine sixty to the Country Series Exam Channel one nineteen 4 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus Appen Bloomberg 5 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 1: dot com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Hey, good morning. I'm 6 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: Karen Moscow, along with Tom Keene and Michael McKee and 7 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 1: the opening gal brought to you by s C. I 8 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 1: have evolving investor and regulatory demands affected your investment firms 9 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 1: operational readiness, Imagine transforming your business with SEIS Global Platform 10 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: at se i C dot com slash imagine. And stocks 11 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:44,919 Speaker 1: are higher at the open. The SMP five hundred up 12 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: to tenths per cent or three points to nineteen thirty three. 13 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average up two towns per center thirty 14 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: points to sixteen thousand, five hundred fifteen, the nasdacts up 15 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: three tenths per center twelve points to forty five fifty 16 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: five ten. Your treasury up seven thirty seconds. The YELD 17 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:01,959 Speaker 1: one point seven two percent yield on a two year 18 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:05,319 Speaker 1: point seven two percent NIMAX scrude oil down eight tens 19 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: percent or twenty seven cents to thirty eight a barrel. 20 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: Comax schoold is down six tenths percent or seven dollars 21 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 1: twenty cents to twelve thirty one eighty announced and the 22 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 1: euro a dollar oh nine nine four the end one 23 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:21,279 Speaker 1: twelve point eight six. Tom and Mike Karen thanks so much. 24 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: He is upon us. Joseph Wisenhal I noticed the success 25 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Markets the other day, like Facebook follows on Twitter. 26 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 1: Fo's really getting some tractions great? You know, I think 27 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: them the content that we produced at Bloomberg, the stories 28 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 1: that we do the TV, there's a there's a great 29 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 1: appetite for it on the internet. Sophisticated market and economics commentary, 30 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: people like have you seen his entourage Michael McKee, It 31 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: stretches halfway to Park Avenue. It's amazing. Yeah, it's got 32 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 1: drawn followers. The entourage on negative interest rates is extraordinary. Um, 33 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: you say there's some I'm out there. I don't see 34 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: it because are we gonna see from where you sit? 35 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 1: Is there a prediction of ever more negative interest rates? Well? 36 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: I just think it's striking how fast the conversation changes 37 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 1: I mean, I think that there are still anxieties about 38 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: where this leads to what it does to banks in 39 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: the long term. But look, two weeks ago, you couldn't uh, 40 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: you know, swing a cat without seeing a story about 41 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: markets revolting against negative interest rates concerns that they were 42 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: really bad for the economy. Now I haven't seen one 43 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: in weeks. What's changed nothing. The only thing that's changes 44 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 1: that markets have gone up, and so people have changed 45 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 1: their story, but they're still with us um. I think 46 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: one of the things that's really striking the japan forty 47 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: year government bond. I didn't even know, it's last night 48 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,640 Speaker 1: that Japan had a forty year. Everyone knows there's a 49 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: thirty year. The yield on the forty year now has 50 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: fallen below one percent. I mean, it seems conceivable that 51 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: in a month will be back here talking about how 52 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: Japan has negative rates out to alredy years. Absolutely extraordinary. 53 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: A lot of this decline and yield coming since Japan. 54 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,799 Speaker 1: The Bank of Japan went to negative rates. They've got 55 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: a bond, it's gonna mature in March of two thousand 56 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 1: fifty five, will be there and will you will you 57 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: take one per cent on your money until I remember 58 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 1: my grand my grandfather showing me his bond blodder the 59 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 1: first time he got a three percent coupon, and he 60 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 1: said that was unimaginable. Together it was, So you really 61 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: wonder do we go back to that length of time. 62 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,119 Speaker 1: What are you observing about G twenty this weekend? We've 63 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 1: done very little on it and it's Thursday. But is 64 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: there any buzz other than a junk in a photo up? No. 65 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 1: I mean, I think a few weeks ago some people 66 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: had talked about this idea of some coordinated global currency 67 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 1: intervention that just seems so far fetched. It doesn't feel 68 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: like anything on that front is going to happen. But 69 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 1: you know, again, these ideas were put forth during what 70 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: felt like a period of much more panic. It just 71 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 1: doesn't feel like there's the political will, particularly in the 72 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: United States, to have the FED or any or the 73 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 1: Treasury or anyone else extend political capital to try to 74 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 1: manipulate markets this way. So there might be some commentary 75 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 1: about currencies, but right now it doesn't feel like we're 76 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: gonna get anything. It's internally inconsistent in the sense that 77 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 1: different countries don't want the dollar to go different ways. 78 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 1: For their own reason, so it wouldn't wouldn't do anybody 79 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:34,039 Speaker 1: any good. But it does get to the point you 80 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 1: were making with negative interest rates that a lot of 81 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 1: this seems to be people who got so used to 82 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: regulators or or supervisors the FED UH saving them somehow, 83 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,840 Speaker 1: that they can't imagine a world where they may be 84 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,559 Speaker 1: on their own, and so the minute the markets go down, 85 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: you got to do something for us. Yeah. I think 86 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:59,039 Speaker 1: that's also one of the really short of remarkable stories 87 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 1: in the last over weeks, how calm the FED has 88 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: been during the panic. It never gave any strong hints 89 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: of a backtrack. It's just been to steady. What they 90 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 1: keep saying the same thing, data dependent, data dependent, and 91 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 1: the FED has never really given any inclination that they're 92 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 1: gonna suddenly freeze up and reverse course or anything like. 93 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 1: You're just joining us, Joe Wise and fall of Bloomberg 94 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,840 Speaker 1: markets with us across many platforms. Joe, this is an 95 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: important question and timely for you. I'm on the war 96 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 1: path about media types particularly, but a lot of other 97 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:32,799 Speaker 1: people as well, but media types who personalize the behavior 98 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 1: idea that the markets are quote unquote telling institutions like 99 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 1: the FED what to do. I all of my theory 100 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:46,720 Speaker 1: and finance and investment says that is total malarkey. Yeah, 101 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: you have lived this first business insider, And here there's personal. 102 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:55,599 Speaker 1: The anthropomorphiz all of the markets is very strange. It's 103 00:05:55,680 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: usually people projecting their own biases onto what they would like, 104 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: and then they read that into the markets. Look, obviously, 105 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 1: investors have ideas. Investors have ideas about whether long or 106 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: short investors want to see this policy or that policy. 107 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: But then when it's all synthesized into a market, into 108 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 1: a price, it's really ludicrous to say, oh, there's some 109 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: clear signal, there's some clear message that markets are telling us. 110 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: I think often that just the idea is very strange 111 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 1: to me. Mike and I fight this every day, but 112 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: but it's really come up recently, and Mike, I think 113 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 1: in a lot of conversations, this idea that the market 114 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: has a mind. The markets have to get Stanley, for sure. 115 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,919 Speaker 1: Everybody keeps going back to the old formulation about how 116 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: many recessions of the market has called and FED has 117 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: always opposed negative interest rates, and how it ever became 118 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 1: a meme that they would be considering it. I have 119 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 1: no idea, Yeah, well, I mean, I think the FED 120 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: takes an academic approach, and they were asked, is this 121 00:06:56,720 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 1: something that you've studied? And well they I mean they 122 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: said yeah, they said sure, among all the different ideas, 123 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 1: of course, we've studied everything. And then people took that 124 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 1: as a message perhaps that it might be imminent. But 125 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like it, especially given how inconsistent that 126 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: would be with the data, with the solid CPI data 127 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: that we got last week, the ongoing jobs data. The 128 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: idea that we're at some risk of the FED dramatically 129 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 1: reversing course and going negative doesn't jibe on multiple levels. 130 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: Gold New Bowl market, what's the research? What are your 131 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: eighteen stories on the say? You know, the research on 132 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: gold says that it's basically all the function of real 133 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: interest rates. And so if you think that we're going 134 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 1: to go into another serious easing cycle then and we're 135 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,119 Speaker 1: going to get higher volatility than sure, go long gold. 136 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: And if you don't think we're going to go into 137 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 1: a real easing cycle or some sort of crater, then 138 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 1: it's hard to make an argument for gold. But it 139 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: does seem like it's that simple. It's an expressed view 140 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: on once an area or the other Joey wasn't thank 141 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 1: you so much on Cambor Markets stopping by. They look 142 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: for him on what four four PM, three fifty nine 143 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:11,880 Speaker 1: thirty walls three times. He will darken the door of 144 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television as well green on the screen. And it's 145 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:19,239 Speaker 1: sort of massively in determinate market. Why isn't fault working 146 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: six hours today? Um? Up fifty five? The Vicks twenty 147 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 1: point seven one, And it's just sort of like Mike, 148 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: It's just it's just sort of there. Yeah, but it 149 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: just sort of their day. I think people might be 150 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,599 Speaker 1: ready for that. Yeah, I agree. I mean there's a 151 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 1: nice tone to it. We did not restoration hardware. David 152 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: Wilson was an important uh comment on restoration hardware. Um 153 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: uh really having a tough time of it. Let me 154 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:53,839 Speaker 1: our h is the symbol. I got a five day 155 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: chart up. Yeah, we're fifty two wish and right now 156 00:08:56,520 --> 00:09:02,559 Speaker 1: we're enjoying thirty nine is can we use plunge? No? 157 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: Do it? They think it's sort of a well, look 158 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 1: that's a that's a big drop. We'll have to look 159 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 1: at that restoration harder. We'll look at that soon. It 160 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: is bluemark surveillance brought to you by Volvo Cars, White Planes. 161 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: Visit Volvo Cars, White Planes dot Com. Here is John 162 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: Tucker with the latest news headlines and Michael and Tom 163 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: Houston will be the sign of tonight's Republican presidential debate, 164 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 1: with Donald Trump rivals getting one more chance to try 165 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: to derail the GOP front runner before Super Tuesday. There 166 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: is a state of emergency in Virginia. That's where four 167 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 1: people were killed after tornadoes damaged homes left thousands without 168 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 1: power across the state. World Health Organization says women breastfeeding 169 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 1: their babies in countries hit by the zeke byers should 170 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 1: continue to do so and uh look out Hollywood. February, 171 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 1: China broke the global box office record for a single week, 172 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 1: five and fifties seven million dollars in ticket sales. These 173 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 1: are all local films. The big draw there Mermaid, a 174 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: quirky comedy from director Stephen Chow about a mermaid who 175 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 1: falls in love with the real estate tycoon she sent 176 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 1: to assassinate the highest grossing film of all time in China. 177 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 1: Another one, I'm not going to see. Global News twenty 178 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 1: four hours a day, powered by our twenty four hundred 179 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:22,839 Speaker 1: journalists more than one hundred fifty news bureaus around the 180 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: world on John Tucker, Tom was that for your Oscar consideration, 181 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 1: this is not among the films being considered for the 182 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:36,439 Speaker 1: Oscar Sunday the Oscars your pick reverence, I would say, 183 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 1: I just a full disclosure from the same on top 184 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 1: of the story. Yeah, you know, I I gotta catch 185 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: up fast. We're all big short fans and it may 186 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 1: not wine. We've got a dog in the fight. We 187 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: do have a dog in the fight. Green and Red 188 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 1: in the screen, Hasek wanted down for actually the Dow 189 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: up forty three points. Continue with this place, Michael McKee 190 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 1: and Tom Keane Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance brought to you 191 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 1: by New York Community Bank and New York Commercial Bank, 192 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: the NYCB Family of banks Bank with confidence. Anywhere you 193 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: see the NYCB logo throughout the New York p mentrol 194 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: visit NYCB family dot com. He