1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:12,319
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg dayba q At podcast. Good morning,

3
00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:15,120
Speaker 2: It's Friday, the sixteenth of January. I'm Caroline Hepcot in

4
00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:16,000
Speaker 2: London and.

5
00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:19,079
Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today, the White House

6
00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:21,959
Speaker 1: warns all options are still on the table for Iran,

7
00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:26,520
Speaker 1: as Bloomberg analysis shows Trump increasingly following through on threats.

8
00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:31,720
Speaker 2: Venezuela's opposition leader gives the US President her Nobel Peace

9
00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:32,560
Speaker 2: Prize medal.

10
00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:37,080
Speaker 1: Plus is ten million people too many. Switzerland debates a

11
00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,920
Speaker 1: population cap amid a growing immigration backlash.

12
00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:43,159
Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

13
00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,360
Speaker 1: US officials have renewed the threat of possible military action

14
00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:50,159
Speaker 1: against Iran after President Trump suggested the country's regime may

15
00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:54,680
Speaker 1: have averted strikes by pledging not to execute protesters. Here's

16
00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:57,280
Speaker 1: what the US Ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Watz,

17
00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:59,320
Speaker 1: told the UN Security Council.

18
00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:04,880
Speaker 3: Sident Trump is a man of action, not endless talk

19
00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:08,840
Speaker 3: like we see at the United Nations. He has made

20
00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,959
Speaker 3: it clear all options are on the table to stop

21
00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,280
Speaker 3: the slaughter, and no one should know that better than

22
00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,160
Speaker 3: the leadership of the Iranian regime.

23
00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:22,920
Speaker 1: Mike Waltz's comments were echoed by the White House Press Secretary,

24
00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:25,520
Speaker 1: as the Associated Press and New York Times reported that

25
00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:28,280
Speaker 1: leaders across the midd Least have been making the case

26
00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:32,200
Speaker 1: to the US President not to strike Iran. Meanwhile, Iran's

27
00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:36,560
Speaker 1: Deputy Representative to the UN, Golam Hossein Darzi, delivered this

28
00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:38,240
Speaker 1: warning to the American administration.

29
00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:44,720
Speaker 4: Iran seeks neither escalation nor confrontation. However, any act of aggression,

30
00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:50,320
Speaker 4: direct or indirect will be met with a decisive, proportionate

31
00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:52,040
Speaker 4: and lawful response.

32
00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,400
Speaker 1: The Deputy Iranian Ambassadors to the UN was also speaking at

33
00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,640
Speaker 1: the Security Council meeting, as Fox News reported that the

34
00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:02,760
Speaker 1: US is moving an aircraft carrier to the Middle East,

35
00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,680
Speaker 1: with more assets expected to arrive in the coming days.

36
00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:10,480
Speaker 2: The heightened US van rhetoric comes as Bloomberg Economics has

37
00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,160
Speaker 2: found that Donald Trump is following through on a greater

38
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,840
Speaker 2: share of his threats in his second term as president.

39
00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,880
Speaker 2: During his first term, Trump carried out about forty percent

40
00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,760
Speaker 2: of the threats that he made. That rate has risen

41
00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,360
Speaker 2: to sixty percent so far in his second administration. As

42
00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:30,840
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Chief Geoeconomics analyst Jennifer Welch puts it the shift

43
00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:35,440
Speaker 2: suggests Tehran shouldn't bet on Taco, referring to a popular

44
00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:39,200
Speaker 2: investor shorthand for Trump always chickens out.

45
00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:43,400
Speaker 1: And the Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has given

46
00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,200
Speaker 1: her Nobel Peace Prize medal to the US President at

47
00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,440
Speaker 1: a meeting in the White House. In a social media

48
00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:51,680
Speaker 1: post hours later, Trump called the gesture a great honor

49
00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:55,800
Speaker 1: and described Mashadow as a wonderful woman. Speaking to reporters,

50
00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:59,880
Speaker 1: the politician and activist said the presentation had historic significance.

51
00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:05,680
Speaker 5: I presented the President of the United States the medal,

52
00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:13,160
Speaker 5: Novel Priace Prize, and two hundred years in history, the

53
00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:18,680
Speaker 5: people of believer are giving back to the hair of

54
00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,239
Speaker 5: Washington's a medal in this case of medal or the

55
00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:28,520
Speaker 5: Novel Peace Prize, as a recognition for his unique commitment.

56
00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:30,639
Speaker 2: With our freedom.

57
00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:34,360
Speaker 1: Maria Karina Machadow, speaking there after, Donald Trump previously said

58
00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:38,320
Speaker 1: he didn't believe she had support or respect in Venezuela

59
00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,160
Speaker 1: and cleared the way for the Vice President Elsa Rodriguez

60
00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,640
Speaker 1: to become acting president. The Norwegian Nobel Committee has said

61
00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,040
Speaker 1: the award cannot be shared or transferred.

62
00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:51,280
Speaker 2: Alls to his five biggest banks reported a record one

63
00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:54,880
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty four billion dollars of trading revenue last year,

64
00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,280
Speaker 2: and they say more is coming. Morgan Stantly's CEO and

65
00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,200
Speaker 2: chairman Ted Pick led the optimism.

66
00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,960
Speaker 6: The results for every quarter over the last eight are

67
00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:07,000
Speaker 6: a blueprint for Morgan Stanley's success.

68
00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:08,360
Speaker 2: We expect this mix of.

69
00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,920
Speaker 7: Tailwinds and headwinds to prevail in twenty twenty six and

70
00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:13,560
Speaker 7: are prepared to continue.

71
00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:18,360
Speaker 2: To execute debt Bankers at Ted Picks Morgan Stanley increase

72
00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,680
Speaker 2: revenue by ninety three percent in the fourth quarter, capping

73
00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:26,280
Speaker 2: a record year. The turbulent Trump administration has kept investors

74
00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,520
Speaker 2: on edge, but for bank traders that has kept paying

75
00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:34,039
Speaker 2: off as clients rush to reposition their portfolios. Goldman Sachs

76
00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:38,520
Speaker 2: as CEO David Solomon says deal making has also taken off.

77
00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:41,239
Speaker 8: I think the world is set up at the moment

78
00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,120
Speaker 8: to be incredibly constructive in twenty twenty six for m

79
00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,839
Speaker 8: and A and capital markets activity, and I think the

80
00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:50,479
Speaker 8: likely scenario is it is a very very good year

81
00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:52,600
Speaker 8: for m ANDA and capital markets activity.

82
00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:57,840
Speaker 2: Shares of both. Goldman sachs Adimalganstanley rose the most since

83
00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:01,320
Speaker 2: April after they disclosed their results. But despite the bump

84
00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,680
Speaker 2: a year and strong forecasts, there are also warnings of

85
00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:09,840
Speaker 2: enormous amounts of risk and possible AI related job cuts ahead.

86
00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,240
Speaker 1: China is clamping down on high speed trading, according to

87
00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:18,320
Speaker 1: Bloomberg sources, Commodities futures exchanges in Shanghai and Guangzhou are

88
00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:22,560
Speaker 1: among those who've told local brokers to remove servers dedicated

89
00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:26,680
Speaker 1: to high frequency traders that are located inside the exchange's

90
00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:30,240
Speaker 1: data centers. There's also a preliminary plan to add two

91
00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,719
Speaker 1: milliseconds of latency to any servers that connect to futures

92
00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:38,039
Speaker 1: exchanges from third party computer rooms. Chinese shares tumbled on

93
00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,320
Speaker 1: the news the clampdown will hit Chinese China's army of

94
00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:45,520
Speaker 1: domestic high frequency firms, as well as global firms including

95
00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:49,000
Speaker 1: Citadel Securities, Jane Street and Jump Trading, who did not

96
00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:50,680
Speaker 1: respond to requests for comment.

97
00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:57,200
Speaker 2: One of the UK's Conservative parties most senior politicians has

98
00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:01,920
Speaker 2: defected to Nigel Parages Reform. UK Party Robert Jenerick says

99
00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,880
Speaker 2: that both Labour and the Conservatives have broken Britain.

100
00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:09,960
Speaker 7: But Whilst this government is accelerating our decline, they didn't

101
00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,800
Speaker 7: begin it. We've had twenty to thirty years of this

102
00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:17,160
Speaker 7: because the two main parties are rotten. They are no

103
00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:21,400
Speaker 7: longer fit for purpose. They both broke Britain and neither

104
00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:22,160
Speaker 7: can fix it.

105
00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:27,719
Speaker 2: Robert Jenerick had challenged Kenmy Badenock to lead the Conservatives

106
00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:31,000
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four and had served as a minister

107
00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:37,120
Speaker 2: running housing and immigration policy, despite Conservatives broadly rallying behind Badenock.

108
00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:40,960
Speaker 2: The defection cements the split on the right. Traditionally a

109
00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:45,640
Speaker 2: two party system, British politics now has five parties polling

110
00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:51,679
Speaker 2: at similar levels, making May's local elections highly uncertain. Those

111
00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,080
Speaker 2: are some of our top stories for you this morning.

112
00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,160
Speaker 2: Let's think about the market. So Asian equities have reached

113
00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:00,360
Speaker 2: an all time high. The MASCI Asia Pacific index is

114
00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:02,760
Speaker 2: up by three tenths of one percent. We also saw

115
00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:06,119
Speaker 2: Ustock six hundred shares hitting an all time peak last

116
00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:09,040
Speaker 2: night at the close of play. US stop futures are

117
00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,240
Speaker 2: our European stop futures those sinking three tenths of one percent.

118
00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:15,800
Speaker 2: That issue with China targeting high frequency trading did see

119
00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:20,200
Speaker 2: shares drop in China cside three hundred and six tenths

120
00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:24,720
Speaker 2: this hour. Global corporate bond yield premiums have fallen to

121
00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,080
Speaker 2: they're lower since two thousand and seven, I think a

122
00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:30,320
Speaker 2: key line in bond markets, and in terms of oil

123
00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:33,000
Speaker 2: markets sixty three dollars fifty one for break food, so

124
00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,480
Speaker 2: we're holding on to the big decline that we saw yesterday.

125
00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:38,800
Speaker 2: Those are the markets in a moment.

126
00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:42,640
Speaker 1: More on some of the economic challenges facing around plus

127
00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:47,600
Speaker 1: Switzerland's debating a proposal to cap it's population at ten million.

128
00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:50,040
Speaker 1: But another story that caught are this morning. If you

129
00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:51,880
Speaker 1: were listening to us yesterday, and I've heard of discussing

130
00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:55,080
Speaker 1: how people are drinking less, particularly in bars, But our

131
00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:57,600
Speaker 1: colleagues at Bloomberg Weekend have come up with the alternative,

132
00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:00,360
Speaker 1: which is going to a sauna instead. They've been tracking

133
00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:02,960
Speaker 1: this boom and saunas in London and New York. Of

134
00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,720
Speaker 1: course they're popping up everywhere from the luxury types, but

135
00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:08,360
Speaker 1: also like the likes of the community sauna baths in

136
00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:11,800
Speaker 1: London as well, these are places aiming to take the

137
00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:14,000
Speaker 1: place of the coffee shop, the pub or the nightclub.

138
00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,800
Speaker 1: People are having work meetings. Apparently there I'm not sure

139
00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:20,040
Speaker 1: about that, Phil or even dates oh.

140
00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:24,240
Speaker 2: I shot it to think about a community sauna. Executives,

141
00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,840
Speaker 2: I hear used to run and walk together. Maybe now

142
00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:32,640
Speaker 2: it's about sweating it out together. M I have my doubts. Weirdly, Stephen,

143
00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:34,840
Speaker 2: I actually know someone who has installed one of those

144
00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,840
Speaker 2: small infrared electric cabin saunas. Have you ever been in

145
00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:43,559
Speaker 2: one of those? It's like sitting in a phone box small.

146
00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:46,640
Speaker 1: I mean, the interesting part about this that I found

147
00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:50,000
Speaker 1: is the question of giving a new gathering place for

148
00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:52,520
Speaker 1: community as well, somewhere where you're not looking at your phones,

149
00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:54,880
Speaker 1: which is something that I can certainly appreciate. I did

150
00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,079
Speaker 1: also really like they spoke to the co owner of

151
00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,000
Speaker 1: the Russian and Turkish Bats in Manhattan, which has been

152
00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:03,440
Speaker 1: around for four plus years, and they say, surprisingly, you know,

153
00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,240
Speaker 1: it's perhaps not just the wellness gains that people are

154
00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:08,120
Speaker 1: getting get into this game for perhaps sols because they've

155
00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:09,760
Speaker 1: realized they can make quite a lot of money if

156
00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:11,840
Speaker 1: you open one of these two So a healthy dose

157
00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,200
Speaker 1: of cynicism. I will put a link to the piece

158
00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:15,240
Speaker 1: in our podcast show notes.

159
00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,559
Speaker 2: Okay, well, let's begin more on the situation in Iran

160
00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,160
Speaker 2: and take a look at some of the wider economic

161
00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,480
Speaker 2: issues that are at play. Our chief Emerging Markets Economies

162
00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,640
Speaker 2: Zia do joins us now for more on this. Good

163
00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:32,160
Speaker 2: to speak to some of your colleagues at Bloomberg Economics,

164
00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,720
Speaker 2: and you have been looking into the chances of an

165
00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:40,760
Speaker 2: escalation in Iran and what that means. What have the

166
00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:42,439
Speaker 2: team found out about this?

167
00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,120
Speaker 9: Well, good morning, Well, this week has been quite eventful

168
00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:48,400
Speaker 9: when it came to Iran. At the beginning of the week,

169
00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:52,240
Speaker 9: we had clear threats from President Trump saying that help

170
00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,960
Speaker 9: us on his way to protest us in Iran, and

171
00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:57,920
Speaker 9: then a couple of days later he seemed to have

172
00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:02,480
Speaker 9: signaled he's holding off the the attacks. So what's going on?

173
00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:06,120
Speaker 9: There three possibilities. One of them is that there is

174
00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:09,200
Speaker 9: a lobbying from the God that might have worked. There

175
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,280
Speaker 9: is a second possibility, which is basically President Trump is

176
00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:16,800
Speaker 9: fearing basically a blawback and an escalation into the region.

177
00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,360
Speaker 9: And the third possibility this is all a deception act

178
00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:23,440
Speaker 9: and maybe Trump pull attack Iran eventually. My colleague Jennifer

179
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:26,439
Speaker 9: Welsh has looked at Trump's track record in terms of

180
00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,760
Speaker 9: whether he follows through on his threats or not. And

181
00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:34,040
Speaker 9: it's not great news for Iran. She found that during

182
00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:37,320
Speaker 9: her second term he followed through on sixty percent of

183
00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:40,719
Speaker 9: his threats. That includes thrust to attack, which followed by

184
00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:45,000
Speaker 9: strikes on the hoofies, on Nigeria and even on Iran itself.

185
00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:49,840
Speaker 1: Okay, so is that these protests began over economic issues

186
00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,079
Speaker 1: in Iran? What is the situation in the country's economy

187
00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,040
Speaker 1: now and will it have been made worse by the

188
00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:55,960
Speaker 1: weeks of protest?

189
00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,360
Speaker 9: Sure? I mean there is this quote, this attrib t

190
00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:02,840
Speaker 9: Lenin I think, which said the easiest way or the

191
00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:06,160
Speaker 9: best way to destroy a system is to debase the currency,

192
00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:10,080
Speaker 9: and Iran had plenty of currency debasement in recent years.

193
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:14,080
Speaker 9: The slock of the real has depreciated, I think, by

194
00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,160
Speaker 9: around seventy percent against the dollars since twenty twenty two.

195
00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:21,120
Speaker 9: Inflation has been stuck at forty percent for a number

196
00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:24,600
Speaker 9: of years. So the economic conditions have been difficult and

197
00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:28,559
Speaker 9: that what basically triggered the protests. On the twenty eighth

198
00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:33,920
Speaker 9: of December. Authorities did respond by replacing the central Bank governor,

199
00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:38,040
Speaker 9: trying to basically put a floor under the currency and

200
00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,600
Speaker 9: under inflation. But I think the demands have moved on

201
00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:45,040
Speaker 9: from the economics to the politics in terms of what

202
00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:48,040
Speaker 9: the economic situation, whether it's going to get worse or

203
00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:52,320
Speaker 9: better with the events. There's no doubt with higher uncertainty

204
00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,720
Speaker 9: with Trump's twenty five percent tariffs on countries that do

205
00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,520
Speaker 9: business with Iran, with uncertainty about the future of the country,

206
00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,320
Speaker 9: and even the military strikes on the country or not,

207
00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,840
Speaker 9: whether that happens or not, that the cano situation, at

208
00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:06,839
Speaker 9: least in the short term, is not going to get

209
00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:07,400
Speaker 9: any better.

210
00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:12,040
Speaker 2: No huge risk potentially in terms of the thing that

211
00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:15,480
Speaker 2: global markets think about a lot oil supplies, what could

212
00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:16,439
Speaker 2: be the effect there.

213
00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,440
Speaker 9: There's a lot of oil at risk here. If you

214
00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:24,120
Speaker 9: think about Iran alone, it supplies about five percent of

215
00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:29,000
Speaker 9: global oil supplies. Somebody obviously consumed domestically. Some of that

216
00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:33,439
Speaker 9: is exported, mostly to China, so that is a significant

217
00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:37,000
Speaker 9: amount of oil supplies, bigger than Venezuela, for example. But

218
00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:39,679
Speaker 9: that's not where there is stops right, because there is

219
00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:43,240
Speaker 9: risk and the dath threats from Iran that there will

220
00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,360
Speaker 9: be retaliation on the region. And if you add that

221
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:48,920
Speaker 9: not just Iran, but if you also include Iraq and

222
00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:51,720
Speaker 9: Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Kuwait and the Gulf.

223
00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:55,079
Speaker 9: We'll talk about one third of global oil supplies. If

224
00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,840
Speaker 9: you think about the one water you know, one chok point,

225
00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,600
Speaker 9: which is the Strait of horm we have twenty percent

226
00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:07,240
Speaker 9: of global oil supplies that goes through that. Yes, this

227
00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:10,120
Speaker 9: this waterway has never been shot and Iran never fell

228
00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,400
Speaker 9: through on its thresh to the Strait of Hormus. But

229
00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:17,599
Speaker 9: also we're an unprecedented time and there is basically existential

230
00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:20,320
Speaker 9: risk for the system in Iran, and they may do

231
00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:22,920
Speaker 9: stuff that they haven't done before. So we're talking about

232
00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:24,880
Speaker 9: all a lot of oil at risks. If you just

233
00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,559
Speaker 9: you know, constrain yourself to Iran, that's five percent of

234
00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:30,120
Speaker 9: global supplies and that can go up up to twenty

235
00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:32,680
Speaker 9: percent of global oil exports if you include also the

236
00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:34,920
Speaker 9: Strait of Hormus, and that will have an effect on

237
00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:35,880
Speaker 9: all prices.

238
00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:38,560
Speaker 1: Okay, So yes, thanks so much for joining us with

239
00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,920
Speaker 1: your analysis this morning. Ziado. They're are chief Emerging markets

240
00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:47,760
Speaker 1: economists at Bloomberg Economics. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak.

241
00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:49,520
Speaker 1: Europe coming up after this.

242
00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:55,040
Speaker 2: As business and political leaders from around the world descend

243
00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,040
Speaker 2: on the Swiss town of Davos. In the coming days,

244
00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:02,000
Speaker 2: voters in Switzerland are debate a proposal to cap the

245
00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:05,760
Speaker 2: country's population at ten million. It's an idea that has

246
00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:09,680
Speaker 2: alarmed businesses but is attracting growing public support. Our reporter

247
00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:14,320
Speaker 2: Hugo Miller joins us now from Geneva. Hugo, why has

248
00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,559
Speaker 2: this proposal come about? How has it come about? Exactly?

249
00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,600
Speaker 6: Well, good morning. It really stems from a very simple

250
00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:29,600
Speaker 6: number and roughly sorry, fivefold, and that refers to the

251
00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:33,280
Speaker 6: fact that Switzerland's population over the past decade has risen

252
00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:38,280
Speaker 6: five times as fast as the neighboring EU. So while

253
00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:44,200
Speaker 6: we hear about complaints about immigration over access immigration in

254
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,080
Speaker 6: the UK and France and Germany and that's been really

255
00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:50,040
Speaker 6: contributing to the rise of parties on the far right

256
00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:54,960
Speaker 6: here in Switzerland, the actual numbers are far greater, and

257
00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:57,000
Speaker 6: that's the underlying demographic.

258
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:03,120
Speaker 1: Switzerland's population is currently just over nine million. How would

259
00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,280
Speaker 1: a cap work if it were to happen?

260
00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,360
Speaker 6: Exactly? The population is currently nine point one million, but

261
00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:13,360
Speaker 6: has been growing fast. As I just referenced, the idea

262
00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:17,120
Speaker 6: that is being brought by the Swiss People's Party, which

263
00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,120
Speaker 6: gathered one hundred thousand signatures, which means it has to

264
00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:25,000
Speaker 6: be addressed by the government. Is that if the population

265
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 6: reaches nine point five million, so an increase of just

266
00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:31,760
Speaker 6: another four hundred thousand, the initiative, if passed into law,

267
00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:36,080
Speaker 6: would deny entrance to newcomers like asylum seekers, and then

268
00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:40,480
Speaker 6: families of foreign residents, which would create a really unpleasant

269
00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:43,280
Speaker 6: situation where you would have essentially those that would be

270
00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:47,920
Speaker 6: legally entitled to be in Switzerland, but their family members

271
00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:51,880
Speaker 6: would would not be. And then, furthermore, if the population

272
00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:54,920
Speaker 6: reached ten million, so an increase of another half a

273
00:15:54,960 --> 00:16:00,520
Speaker 6: million people, the government would be compelled if this, if

274
00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:05,440
Speaker 6: this proposal passed, to introduce more measures, and then if

275
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:09,240
Speaker 6: the numbers didn't drop off after that, then Switzerland would

276
00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,880
Speaker 6: have to quit the free movement accord that it has

277
00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:12,840
Speaker 6: with the European Union.

278
00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:18,640
Speaker 2: What are the chances of this passing, this cap this

279
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,280
Speaker 2: limit to ten million people in Switzerland.

280
00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:24,160
Speaker 6: Well, this is peraps the most interesting bit in the

281
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,000
Speaker 6: way in which Switzerland stands, apart from let's say France

282
00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:33,160
Speaker 6: or Germany. Support is high around forty eight percent for

283
00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 6: the proposal, so close to close to half of the population.

284
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:41,320
Speaker 6: Now you have numbers similar to that in some of

285
00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:44,880
Speaker 6: these neighboring countries. But what's different about Switzerland is there

286
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,000
Speaker 6: is widespread support among young people.

287
00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,000
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

288
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,120
Speaker 1: stories making news from London to Wall Streets and beyond.

289
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,440
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,

290
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:01,600
Speaker 2: and anyway where else you get your podcasts.

291
00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,680
Speaker 1: You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,

292
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,400
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

293
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,240
Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your

294
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:14,959
Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

295
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:16,600
Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepka.

296
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,800
Speaker 1: And I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for

297
00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,320
Speaker 1: all the news you need to start your day right

298
00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:24,800
Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe