1 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:02,520 Speaker 1: See Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:08,479 Speaker 2: No One, No One. It's offering you action. It's a 3 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:10,959 Speaker 2: gambling experience of lifetime. 4 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: It's by way of saying, I understand, man, Mike, I 5 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:15,320 Speaker 1: know what you want to know. 6 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 2: What you need is way you belong. 7 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Mike Calvaries. 8 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 1: Today I am joined by Jason Lisk from Pool Genius. 9 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: He's here for one simple reason, and it's to help 10 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 1: you win your pool. And it's important to note right 11 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: off the top, I didn't say help you predict the 12 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: outcome of every game. He has the tools to help 13 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 1: you win your pool by optimizing your strategy. And we're 14 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,599 Speaker 1: going to get into exactly what that means throughout this episode. 15 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 1: But before we get into that, Jason, let me ask you, 16 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 1: when did you fall in love with March Madness. Was 17 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 1: there a moment, a team, a player that really hooked you. 18 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: I certainly have mine ready, but I want to hear 19 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: from you first. 20 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 2: Yeah. So I'm from Kansas City, I am. I'm not 21 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 2: a Jayhawks fan. I do remember the eighty six Final four, 22 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 2: though fairly vividly. I remember watching the eighty three game 23 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 2: of vinc State, but I didn't watch the rest of 24 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 2: the tournament. I remember watching eighty six and then in 25 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 2: eighty seven I fell in love with Derek Chieves the 26 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 2: Missouri Tigers. They won the Big Eight unexpectedly and then 27 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 2: lost to Xavier. So my first experience rooting for a 28 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,960 Speaker 2: team heavily was to see them lose, and then see 29 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 2: them lose the next year to Rhode Island, and then 30 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 2: to see them lose to Northern Iowa a few years 31 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 2: later as a three seeds. So I had a great 32 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 2: start as a youngster to watching March Madness. I had 33 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 2: a lot of heartbreak. 34 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, I won't to bring up tyas Edney or that 35 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 1: Mark amo was that was at Novak. Was he the 36 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 1: one barying all the shots against Missoo, pushing them? 37 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 2: Yeah? 38 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 1: I mean Missoo's clearly the best program to have never 39 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: gone to the Final Four, and having spent a year 40 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: on campus there as a freshman at the University of Missouri, 41 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: I can attest. Yeah, the other programs. It's fine to 42 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: say that you're into football or you know, the baseball team, 43 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: but it's a basketball school and that's really the heartbeat 44 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: of the university there in Columbia, Missouri. So I'm with 45 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: you in that regard. I've been pulling for the Tigers 46 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 1: the Cream Rush days. I got a cream Rush jersey 47 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: in my closet still to this day. For me, it 48 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: was the Bryce Drew shot against Old Miss. I was 49 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:12,959 Speaker 1: already a big fan at that point of college basketball 50 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: in the tournament, but those one of those magic moments 51 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 1: that just solidified it, which is this is the absolute 52 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: best sporting vehicle tournaments. However you want to think about 53 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 1: this product, it is so much better than anything else 54 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:28,959 Speaker 1: out there in the market. All right, let's get into 55 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,079 Speaker 1: some of the things we're going to discuss today and 56 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,959 Speaker 1: what you do for pool genius. So let's start with this. 57 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: Millions of people are going to fill out their brackets 58 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: and they're going to fill it out ten fifteen times over, 59 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: but most of them are making the same mistake when 60 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: it comes to strategy, and it's that they're using generic picks, 61 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: copying them over, maybe sprinkling a few differences between entries, 62 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: but they're not accounting for the specifics attached to the pool. 63 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:53,079 Speaker 1: So what we like to do is we like to 64 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 1: talk about how to win your pool in this episode. 65 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 1: So let's just start there in terms of what your 66 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: site helps users achieve and what are some of your 67 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: best selling points in terms of, you know, the statistics 68 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: behind the success that pul Genius is generated for players 69 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 1: across the country. 70 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean we provide edges. We're never going to 71 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 2: guarantee you're gonna win because it is the NCAA tournament. 72 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 2: Things happen, right you, You're probably not going to pick 73 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 2: the champion no matter who you pick. Yeah, I don't 74 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 2: think we've had a fifty to fifty team to win 75 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 2: the title in the men's side. Now the women's different story, 76 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 2: but we haven't had that. I mean, Kentucky in fifteen 77 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 2: was probably the closest and they lost in the final four. 78 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 2: So you're not guaranteed you to win anything, right, but 79 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 2: you're trying to leverage and win money so that when 80 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 2: you get certain things right, you win money. You want 81 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 2: to you want to get paid off when the things 82 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 2: that you predict workout. And so a lot of what 83 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: we do is a we evaluate teams so that you know, 84 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 2: I can look at kim Palm and I can look 85 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 2: at our power ratings. So this is a very important, 86 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 2: Like Kimpom's going to tell you what a team looked 87 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 2: like over thirty two games what their average stats were. 88 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: But a lot of these teams in the tournament are 89 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 2: either peaking or playing worse for very specific and tangible reasons, 90 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 2: like they've had lineup shifts, they've lost key players, they've 91 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 2: gotten key players back, and they didn't have them for 92 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 2: six weeks in the middle of the season and the 93 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 2: results were worse. So they're a better team now than 94 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,719 Speaker 2: you look, Like a UCLA is better now than they were, 95 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 2: A Texas Tech is worse now than they were, and 96 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 2: things like that. So we're going to handicap all those 97 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 2: things and come up with a set of power ratings 98 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 2: one through sixty eight that are based in analytics but 99 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 2: also trying to make judgment calls on like is this 100 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 2: lineup change real? Did this team do something with their rotation, 101 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 2: because that's where we found gold sometimes is making stands 102 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 2: on teams there. And then we run simulations, and we 103 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 2: look at the outputs of those simulations and they sometimes 104 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 2: tell you counter and two to things that you don't 105 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 2: think about from a game theory perspective. So that's important 106 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 2: because we're gonna give you bracket simulations and results, but 107 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 2: not only one you're gonna get up to five for 108 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 2: each pool, and you can set up as many pools 109 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 2: you want. You can set it up for a small 110 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 2: pool with your buddies, the ESPN Madness Pool, a DraftKings 111 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 2: pool with a thousand people, whatever you want. We're gonna 112 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 2: give you five brackets, a best bracket, so to speak of, 113 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 2: like the one that came out of all our simulations 114 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 2: with the biggest edge, and then four complimentary brackets, not 115 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 2: the four next best brackets, but the four brackets that 116 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 2: make sense with that one, which means, when I'm leveraged 117 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 2: on Duke like I was last year, my second bracket 118 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 2: has Florida over Houston, because what can beat my duke 119 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 2: bracket probably one of those other one seeds beating him 120 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 2: in the final four. And so that's kind of like 121 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 2: the mentality, and so we provide that capability. Some years 122 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 2: it's our best bracket that does best. Some years it's 123 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 2: our like last year, it was probably our second or 124 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 2: third bracket that a lot of people had that had Florida, 125 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 2: and other years it may not be a bracket in 126 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:03,720 Speaker 2: the small pools. It maybe Yukon is the four seed 127 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 2: that we see as a value play but we don't 128 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 2: play them in fifty person pools. We're telling you to 129 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 2: play them in five hundred person pools because Yukon's of 130 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 2: value but has risk as a four seed. So those 131 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 2: are like the different ways we provide value. So some 132 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 2: of years, certain customers do better than others depending on 133 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 2: what kind of pools they. 134 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 1: Play, And when you talk about the specific pools, I 135 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 1: think one thing that gets glossed over pretty quickly is 136 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 1: the bonus for upset picks. Some pools baked in others 137 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,239 Speaker 1: do not where quite literally, you know you're not gaining 138 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: all that much, and you're putting yourself on out on 139 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: a limb by not only predicting a twelve five upset 140 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: but also perhaps handicapping a team that may end up 141 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: going to the Sweet sixteen, and you're ruling them out 142 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: in that very first game. How often do you see 143 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 1: people come to you and they don't even know the 144 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 1: rules of their own pool. 145 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 2: It could happen, and they also can be stubborn about like, oh, 146 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 2: because if I'm not getting upset bonuses right, I need 147 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 2: to think very differently than if I am, Like, I 148 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 2: don't want to spray the board with upsets. If it 149 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 2: doesn't gain me much. If it doesn't actually gain me much, 150 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 2: I want to pick the team I think is more 151 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 2: likely to win. And March Madness is kind of a 152 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 2: weird time of year where people actually want to pick 153 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 2: teams they don't think are gonna win, or they've convinced 154 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 2: themselves are gonna win. They don't do that NFL survivor Bulls. 155 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 2: They don't sit there and go, oh, this is the 156 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 2: team I think is gonna lose, but I'm gonna pick them. No, 157 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 2: they don't do that, but they do in March Madness. 158 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 2: I'm gonna generally pick teams I think will win. And 159 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 2: so if I'm taking a team the early days, it's 160 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 2: because I think they're good enough. I'm not doing it 161 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 2: just because of that. Or I think there's a value 162 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 2: because they're good enough and people aren't picking them, so 163 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 2: I think there's leverage. But I'm not just picking upsets 164 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 2: to pick them. I'm not picking a twelve I'm not 165 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 2: forcing a twelve seats. So I think that happens. But yes, 166 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 2: people don't understand, and they may look at our brackets 167 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 2: and say, where are the upsets, And my response would 168 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 2: be every bracket is a risk. You may think of 169 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 2: brack it looks chalky, but you still got to nail 170 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 2: like the final, like Sweet sixteen on. And there are 171 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 2: so many combinations this year. We're going to talk about 172 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 2: some of these teams. You could justifiably probably pick it 173 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 2: from six as champion them justify your bracket. Those are 174 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 2: going to create hundreds of combos, and so you don't 175 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 2: have to get crazy to win one hundred percent pool 176 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 2: if you hit the right combo in the championship. So 177 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 2: that's what I would say is you don't have to 178 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 2: get crazy in the first round if you pool doesn't 179 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 2: reward it. 180 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: On one end of the spectrum, you have those trendy 181 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 1: upset calls. On the other, you have what we experienced 182 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 1: last year in twenty twenty five, which was really one 183 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: of the chalkiest opening weekends in the history of the tournament. 184 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 1: And this year, at least by odds makers, we're headed 185 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 1: for another chalky Thursday and Friday. Every single seed one 186 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 1: through four is a double digit favorite for the first 187 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: time in the history of the tournament. And you can 188 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 1: even expand that further out. Every team at the five 189 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 1: line is an eight and a half or longer favorite. 190 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 1: And obviously there's going to be line movement. You may 191 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: end up seeing an acron close closer to seven. But 192 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: it still bears mentioning right off the bat that it 193 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 1: seems as though there's a gulf between those teams on 194 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: the twelfth or sixteen lines and the top teams. What 195 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 1: are your thoughts heading in. Do you feel like there's 196 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 1: going to be a hive mind situation where everyone is 197 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: just going to automatically advance those teams to the round 198 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 1: of thirty two, if not the sweet sixteen, and then 199 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: I mean to find them. 200 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd be surprised if it's complete high mind, but 201 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 2: you are going to see high pick rates, and it's 202 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 2: justifiable in the way college basketball has moved. I mean, 203 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 2: the gap between an average mid major, who is like 204 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 2: an average D one school, because most schools are mid majors, 205 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 2: is only what sixty something power schools. The gap between 206 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 2: them and the top teams at the power five level 207 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 2: has just grown dramatically. And so if you've got a 208 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 2: power five that has found the right combo of transfers 209 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 2: that are twenty three years old and they're taking those 210 00:09:58,040 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 2: guys from the mid majors, in a lot of ways, 211 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 2: and so we no longer have the same gap between 212 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 2: the teams like the mid majors used to have. If 213 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 2: they didn't have a talent advantage, they would have an 214 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 2: experience advantage and things like that, and that's gone away 215 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 2: because now if their guys are good, they don't stay 216 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 2: there and be experienced at the mid major level for 217 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 2: the most part, and so we're just seeing that gap grow. 218 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 2: And that's what we're seeing these spread numbers. I mean, 219 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 2: they match what the results were this year, which is 220 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 2: the power fives have dominated. You know, Miami, Ohio was 221 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 2: undefeated but didn't play any of them. Akron did certainly 222 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 2: play that Purdue and things like that. But I mean 223 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 2: there's just a gap. That's not to say I think 224 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 2: there are some good mid majors in this tournament, but 225 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 2: the gap has grown. I think there's also more because 226 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 2: of expansion that are just not as good. We used 227 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 2: to have a lot more teams from the mid major 228 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 2: level that you could legit say we're somewhere between the 229 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,599 Speaker 2: fiftieth and eightieth best team in the country overall, and 230 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 2: there's few of those in this field. 231 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 1: When we talk chalk as well, all the one seeds 232 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 1: made the national semifinal last year. It's unlikely we're going 233 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: to see that again. But in terms of the team 234 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: that you're picking to cut down the nets and to 235 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: win the national championship, lots of people have, you know, 236 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 1: different parameters, but this is the time of year where 237 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 1: you see social media washing and they have to be 238 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: top twenty five in offensive efficiency or top ten defense 239 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,199 Speaker 1: or mixing and matching. Do you have a particular set 240 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 1: of requirements to then, you know, take a field of 241 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 1: sixty eight and boil a town to four or five teams. 242 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, they need to be really good. And so I 243 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:36,839 Speaker 2: know that I see all these cutoffs and they can 244 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 2: be arbitrary cutoffs and you and not everybody does the 245 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,679 Speaker 2: same resorts or pulls the say Kin pom pre turning numbers, 246 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 2: so they might cite something different because we've had up 247 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 2: to like the Yukon twenty fourteen team was you got 248 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 2: to ben the rules a little bit to get them 249 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 2: in this champ But for the most part, you have 250 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 2: to be pretty good because there will be upsets and 251 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 2: some good teams will get knocked off, but usually it's 252 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 2: a it's one of the best that emerges to take 253 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 2: advantage of that that didn't get knocked off early and 254 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 2: made it through. So, yeah, they have to be really good, 255 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:10,840 Speaker 2: and we have several of those, which when I say 256 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 2: really good, I mean they usually satisfy the tests that 257 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:17,079 Speaker 2: they're not bad on either side of the ball. There 258 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 2: are a couple examples where that might be the case. 259 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 2: You don't you tend to not want somebody that has 260 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 2: an extreme split at the top of your bracket, right, 261 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 2: great offense, bad defense, bad offense, great defense. You want 262 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 2: somebody that's balanced in both at the top. Now in 263 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 2: the the mid seeds, you might want somebody has a 264 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 2: clear strength to take advantage of that. But yeah, if 265 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 2: I were to set cutoffs, usually when we look at 266 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 2: our power ratings, if you're a one seed on the 267 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 2: seed line but you weren't power rated in our top 268 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 2: seven or eight, you're not you're a bad bet. Like 269 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 2: and we've seen that consistently. Teams that show up there. 270 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 2: Yukon would have been that, but they didn't make the 271 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 2: one seed because they lost ahead of time. But they 272 00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 2: would have been more like our Xaviers of the World 273 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,319 Speaker 2: from a few years ago, North Carolina from a few 274 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 2: years ago, that we would have been fades on. But 275 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 2: for the most part, these ones are legit top five teams. 276 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,440 Speaker 1: Do you put any weight into momentum coming into the 277 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:13,320 Speaker 1: tournament and this can bubble all the way up to 278 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: the top seeds, you know, of the one seeds you 279 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: had Duke, you had Arizona. They cut down the nets 280 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,679 Speaker 1: as their conference tournament champions, whereas Michigan and Florida lost 281 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 1: in their conference championship. Michigan had to go all the way. 282 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:26,440 Speaker 1: So in terms of, you know, burning some of their 283 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 1: energy to get there, they don't get the benefit of, 284 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 1: you know, cutting down the nets as the big ten champs. 285 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 1: But does that factor in at all to how you 286 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: view these teams and do you think, generally speaking, is 287 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 1: a bit of an overreaction in having that recency bias there? 288 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:43,079 Speaker 2: I think it can matter, and that's one of the 289 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 2: things we try to dig into. I think you have 290 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 2: to make judgment calls on if it should in a 291 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 2: particular case, right like if there's an injury, for sure, 292 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 2: if there's an injury, I'm trying to assess how much worse, 293 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 2: Like Duke's a real wildcard this year, by the way, 294 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 2: Like clearly I think the number one if we didn't 295 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 2: have any injuries in the last few weeks, but they 296 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 2: were down two starters in acc they were not as good. 297 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 2: They won those games, but they were a struggle they 298 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 2: had to survive against Florida State. That's an example like 299 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,960 Speaker 2: if we knew that those guys were both out for 300 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 2: extended period of time, I'm downgrading Duke. I can't price 301 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 2: him in the same That doesn't mean I don't think 302 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 2: they win the title. They of course can. They're still 303 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 2: one of the best five teams, but they might not 304 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 2: be number one. You want to tick a couple points 305 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 2: off of them, that's going to affect how they sim 306 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 2: out simulate out in terms of odds to win. So 307 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 2: injuries lineup changes. If there's a clear reason why a 308 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 2: team's playing better. They dropped in an efficient player. They 309 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 2: had a guy out or to start the year, but 310 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 2: he's back now and he's one of the key players. Yes, 311 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 2: I'm bumping a lop. The tougher cases are like Michigan 312 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 2: and like Purdue, who's been inconsistent. Nothing's really changed about 313 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 2: Purdue in terms of personnel rotations other than kluff playing 314 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 2: maybe a little healthier and a little more, but for 315 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 2: the most part. This Purdue team has been who they 316 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 2: are all year in terms of personnel, and they've had 317 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 2: stretches where they've been really, really good and stretches where 318 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 2: their defense gets exposed in certain games and they basically 319 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 2: get out scored Michigan. How much of it is I mean, 320 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 2: they were dominant at the players are a festival. They 321 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 2: haven't really matched that to the same consistency, and they 322 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 2: weren't great in the Big Ten. And they do have 323 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 2: a backup point guard. Out turnovers are an issue for 324 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 2: them if they were one Achilles heel, and the fact 325 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 2: that they don't have depth that point guard is a concern. 326 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 2: I might have a slight downgrade versus what I thought 327 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 2: in January, But yeah, those are just judgment calls on 328 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 2: like this team. Has the personnel changed, whether it be 329 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 2: the main thing. I'd ask, are they starting different players 330 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 2: or different players beat the key contributors? 331 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: Now for a Duke, let me put you on the spot. 332 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: If you could only have one of the two injured 333 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: players Backba or Foster at the point, who do you prefer. 334 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 2: That's interesting? That's interesting, right because I think with Foster, 335 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 2: I think Gangba is like that Domino big that really 336 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 2: protects the paint all that, but Foster, like, I feel 337 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 2: like when he's not there, teams can defend them differently 338 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 2: in terms of playing off, you know, helping on other 339 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 2: players things like that. So it really I think it 340 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 2: dictates more the defense or how teams defend Duke, whereas 341 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 2: Goangba is more the paint defender I think is going 342 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 2: to be necessary when they get deep in this tournament. 343 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 2: Against let's face it, there are a lot of good 344 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 2: teams that have great front lines, including Duke, but a 345 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 2: lot of the teams have really strong inside games that 346 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 2: are on the top or top two seed lines. 347 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: Now, this is the portion of the pod I refer 348 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 1: to as do you know ball and not questioning no, 349 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 1: you clearly do. But for anyone out there listening, you 350 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: want to be able to handle that five twelve upset 351 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: or a six eleven, particularly when you're advancing an eleven seed, 352 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: to be able to turn to your friends and say, 353 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: I knew it. I was on VU, I was on 354 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: South Florida, I was on Akron. Which from the eleven 355 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: and twelve line, do you feel most confident is actually 356 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 1: going to punch through to the round of thirty two? 357 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 1: If not the sweet sixteen in the second weekend. 358 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 2: Man, Yeah, so I was like, I'll say what I'm 359 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 2: disappointing with. I love Northern Iowa and they caught the 360 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 2: best five seed. In my opinion, this should have been 361 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 2: a two or three. So that's not a great draw. 362 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:32,960 Speaker 2: It's also a tougher drawer than Saint John's and the 363 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 2: other twelves. I think Northern io was the best twelve 364 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,560 Speaker 2: right now with what they're putting on the court, because 365 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 2: they did have injuries and that impacted their conference play 366 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 2: early in NBC, and they were better than the sixth 367 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 2: seed in that conference by the end. In fact, I 368 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,159 Speaker 2: think they were close to the They were the second 369 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,400 Speaker 2: favorite off the board behind Belmont, even as the sixth 370 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 2: seed and having to play an extra day, which tells 371 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 2: you they were rated similar to Belmont. So that Northern 372 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,239 Speaker 2: Iowa team I think is the most dangerous, but got 373 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:01,880 Speaker 2: the worst draw, so I don't I don't see him 374 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:05,439 Speaker 2: pulling that upset, but that will be a defensive slug fest. 375 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,680 Speaker 2: I think South Florida is that team, so like Louisville 376 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 2: is great in a lot of advanced metrics and a 377 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:16,120 Speaker 2: lot of ratings. Here's what I'll say about Louisville, Hey, 378 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,880 Speaker 2: we don't know exactly what they're gonna be because they 379 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 2: have had mckel brown out for a period of time. Yes, 380 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 2: he's supposed to play, but that's a that's so there's 381 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 2: a lot of there's a lot of X factors in 382 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:33,400 Speaker 2: this game. His status. Louisville's kind of over inflated because 383 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,919 Speaker 2: they really put it on some really bad mid majors 384 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,680 Speaker 2: early in the year, So their numbers are a little inflated, 385 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 2: I think because of that, And they haven't played as 386 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 2: well against the top tier teams as so maybe their 387 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 2: numbers are slightly over inflated. And they're a high variance 388 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 2: team because they shoot a lot of threes. Well those 389 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 2: are those are all things that are probably bad for 390 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 2: you as a favorite. And then you have a South 391 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 2: Florid team to me that profiles the closest thing that 392 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,120 Speaker 2: is in this tournament to like, Hey, who knows, they 393 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,159 Speaker 2: may be much better than we think out of this level. 394 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 2: They're the most similar team to like a VCU type 395 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 2: Run or Loyal Chicago in terms of they could be 396 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 2: better than people are given credit for because they haven't 397 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,880 Speaker 2: played the level competition. But they were pretty dominant by 398 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 2: the end of the year in the American So that's 399 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 2: one that I think. I think South Florida, given those 400 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 2: has the most deep run to the sweet sixteen and 401 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,199 Speaker 2: beyond potential of that line. Of those two lines is 402 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:30,880 Speaker 2: what I would say. 403 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,439 Speaker 1: Two comments there. First, on Mickel Brown, I agree with you. 404 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 1: Who knows what's up with his back? I mean, could 405 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:38,720 Speaker 1: he play? If he does play, is he going to 406 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:40,080 Speaker 1: be a full go? Is he going to give him 407 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,680 Speaker 1: thirty five plus minutes? And talk about high variance from 408 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,119 Speaker 1: one player. He made ten threes in one game, scored 409 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,640 Speaker 1: forty five points against Baylor, and then two games later 410 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 1: he turns it over seven times. He's got some stinkers 411 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: on his resume because he's a freshman. I think this 412 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 1: is interesting what's happened on a national scale where this 413 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 1: is the best freshman class in the history of the sport. 414 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 1: Everyone just assumes all these guys are pros. You know, 415 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: they're just gonna roll out of bed and you know, 416 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,440 Speaker 1: go for twenty two, five and five. They're still freshmen. 417 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: And when you build your team around a freshman who's eighteen, 418 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: nineteen years old, and then Brown's case only has about 419 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 1: twenty college games under his belt. That really creates a 420 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: wide variety of outcomes for a team like Louisville. And 421 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 1: I will say in terms of the Saint John's Northern 422 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,920 Speaker 1: Iowa draw as a Johnny fan, and I am trying 423 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 1: to keep emotions out of this when I saw that 424 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,200 Speaker 1: they have to go across the country to San Diego 425 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 1: play at the Via House Arena after coming off the 426 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 1: emotion of winning against Yukon in the Big East Final, 427 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,199 Speaker 1: everything that meant to the program, all the energy that 428 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: was in there. Could it be a sleepy draw situation 429 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 1: against a team that wants to slaw them down, that 430 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 1: doesn't turn the ball over, that's not necessarily going to 431 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:46,920 Speaker 1: let the Johnnies get into transition and get some easy 432 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 1: buckets and perhaps force them to beat them from the 433 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 1: perimeter with jumpers. I am my concerns, at least from 434 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 1: a point spread perspective. We'll see if the Panthers can 435 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: hang around for fifteen rounds and potentially two. 436 00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 2: Yeo yeah, I mean they play defense. St. John, this 437 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,639 Speaker 2: is gonna be a slugfest. Northern i was a little 438 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:05,880 Speaker 2: better on offense with their current rotation than what they 439 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 2: had mid conference season. When they had the place and guys, 440 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 2: they probably don't want to play. They're not a deep team, 441 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 2: so very stylistically in that sense, two defensive oriented teams, 442 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:19,679 Speaker 2: so you never know. Northern Ida likes to slow the 443 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 2: pace if they can do that. Here's what I would say. 444 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 2: Auburn was that big five seed a couple of years ago. 445 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 2: But then you know, what's his name got kicked out 446 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 2: of the game within the first two minutes at USC 447 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 2: this year? Who what's his name. 448 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,159 Speaker 1: At Auburn at Baker Mazauri. 449 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:40,359 Speaker 2: Yes, Chad Chad Baker Maszari. Sorry, I blank, I'm getting old. 450 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 2: Don't have anybody from Saint John's get kicked out in 451 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:44,400 Speaker 2: the first couple of minutes, and you're probably better off 452 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 2: than if it does happen. So hopefully you can avoid 453 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 2: that fate because I remember I had some deep runs 454 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,159 Speaker 2: for Auburn, and as soon as that happened, I was like, 455 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 2: oh boy, oh boy, here we go. 456 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 1: So you talk about factoring and injuries, you factor in 457 00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 1: travel at times. How about a two fer with this team. 458 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,439 Speaker 1: UCLA's well documented when they travel East, things have gone awry. 459 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 1: Although they played really good basketball, really since that massive 460 00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:12,240 Speaker 1: meltdown by Mick after the Michigan State game, calling out 461 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 1: members of the media, throwing his own player out of 462 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 1: the game. It seems as though all its theatrics have 463 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,640 Speaker 1: been well received within the locker room. They've been playing 464 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 1: their tails off late in the season. But Billodoh injured, 465 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 1: Donovan Den injured. Do we know what we're going to 466 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: get in Philadelphia against UCF and obviously playing in the 467 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: Eastern time zone, and then if they go deeper in 468 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,160 Speaker 1: the tournament, they're going to stay in the East as well. 469 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: How much does that factor into the handicap of their 470 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,400 Speaker 1: ceiling on this you know, March Madness run. 471 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,159 Speaker 2: It certainly has made it tougher for them. I mean, 472 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,640 Speaker 2: they're one of my sleepers. Like when I say that, 473 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 2: I mean if you're looking for a team outside the 474 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,639 Speaker 2: top five seed lines that on talent and on form, 475 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,680 Speaker 2: because they're a team that we're talking about that. Are 476 00:22:53,720 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 2: they different? Yes, they are, they are different. If Billadoh's healthy, 477 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,160 Speaker 2: with their current lineup right, you know, with Perry being 478 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 2: able to play and moving into the starting role throughout 479 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,719 Speaker 2: the second half of the season, you know, they just 480 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,639 Speaker 2: this team has gotten so much better and they finally 481 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 2: put together and now they can put four shooters win. 482 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,880 Speaker 2: Billado's on the court is like a stretch big four 483 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 2: shooters that shoot over forty percent from three, playing off 484 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 2: of Donovan Dent, who has an assist machine and a 485 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 2: play yan machine. So when they have that, this team 486 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 2: is a top ten to fifteen to twenty team in 487 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 2: this tournament, I think. But they drew a seven, and 488 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 2: they drew a tough draw, and they have to go 489 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 2: east and they may have to play with some injured 490 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 2: players in round one. I mean, they're catching a lot 491 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 2: of points for a seven to ten. Certainly, it could 492 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:47,920 Speaker 2: go badly, but it does remind me of when Gonzaga, 493 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 2: which has been in some of these games, and we 494 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,080 Speaker 2: show up at oh Gonzaga is a seven, but they're 495 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,400 Speaker 2: favored by seven points. They have that capability. I think 496 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,959 Speaker 2: they can put it on them, but certainly high variants. 497 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 2: But man, they can make a run in this region 498 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 2: if they get out a Round one, if they don't 499 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:08,160 Speaker 2: falter to a team that I think has beaten some teams. 500 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 2: But UCF has major defensive issues. So if ucli's offense 501 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 2: is clicking like it has been recently, they should win 502 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 2: that game. 503 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,680 Speaker 1: One last team I'd like you to profile for us. 504 00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,160 Speaker 1: They started the season twenty four and one, their top 505 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,359 Speaker 1: twenty five and Ken palm. Really, if it wasn't for 506 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 1: a buzzer beater from Stanford, they would have started twenty 507 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 1: five and one. They would have been right there in 508 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 1: the national conversation with Miami Ohio along the way. But 509 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 1: the Saint Louis Billikins have been leaking oil late in 510 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: the season. Hasn't necessarily been a personnel issue. The three 511 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 1: point shooting dried up. Seems like their opponents started making 512 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 1: every single shot. When you look at that twenty four 513 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: and runs and one start, there was a ten percent 514 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 1: delta in terms of their three point shooting and their opponents. 515 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 1: Now they're giving up thirty eight percent from deep. Do 516 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,880 Speaker 1: you see it returning to the mean a little bit 517 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: and then being undervalued in this eight to nine game 518 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: and potentially winning a game and then throwing a scare 519 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 1: into Michigan. 520 00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,680 Speaker 2: Well, if it doesn't revert towards the mean, they're getting 521 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:03,800 Speaker 2: to get their doors blown off because they've been bad. 522 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 2: The defensive numbers have been bad, like not not just 523 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 2: like bad, but like sub mid major in the tournament quality, 524 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 2: and so what has happened. I mean, yeah, how much 525 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 2: of it is We know that Robbie Avila has been 526 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 2: dealing with Now we found out last week that he's 527 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 2: been dealing with Planet Fasciatis. That certainly isn't the full answer, 528 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 2: but you know, the big man has been dealing with that. 529 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 2: And I think teams have figured out like that some 530 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 2: of their players are limited and how to play against them, 531 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 2: and they've got to figure out the adjustments to make. 532 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 2: So maybe they'll be in better shape being out of 533 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 2: the conference now because they really struggle at the end 534 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,879 Speaker 2: of the A ten season after dominating the first half. 535 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,200 Speaker 2: I still like Georgia here, but I would it would 536 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,120 Speaker 2: if they can play more like up until a month ago. 537 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 2: Saint Louis would be favorite for sure. 538 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,159 Speaker 1: All Right, we're going to transition to my favorite pool 539 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,280 Speaker 1: in all of March madness. I've been running my own 540 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 1: Survivor pool for over ten years. Oh nice, And basically 541 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: the way it works is you pick one team or 542 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:10,879 Speaker 1: two teams per day. The rules can kind of differ, 543 00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 1: but you're picking to straight up winners. The caveat being 544 00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 1: that you cannot reuse them, so there's two ways to 545 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 1: lose you either have a pick that loses and you 546 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 1: get bounced, or you run out of teams. And I 547 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 1: can say from experience it's happened to me on multiple occasions, 548 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,719 Speaker 1: and last year, by it being so chalky, people are 549 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:28,919 Speaker 1: running out of teams left and right by the second weekend. 550 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 1: So talk me through the different kinds of risk associated 551 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,119 Speaker 1: with picks made in a survivor pool. 552 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's two types of risk, right, you 553 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 2: just laid it out. The risk I run out of 554 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,800 Speaker 2: a pick because I don't have that team later and 555 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 2: the risk I lose now. And you got to balance 556 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,399 Speaker 2: those two things. So I think if you're too a 557 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 2: risk averse in one or the other, I mean, you're 558 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,479 Speaker 2: going to have to take chances somewhere and you've got 559 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 2: to figure out where that is. Like it's kind of 560 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,040 Speaker 2: that'll thing. Like if you've never missed a flight, you 561 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,119 Speaker 2: probably are spending too much time as the airports. So 562 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,200 Speaker 2: if you've never ran out of a pick in a 563 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 2: survivor pool, you're probably being too cautious with who you save, 564 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 2: maybe in some cases. Right, So, I mean it sucks 565 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 2: when it happens because you're like, I don't have a pick, 566 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 2: but I mean, the bracket could play out any number 567 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,440 Speaker 2: of ways, and you've got to play certain angles sometimes 568 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 2: to stay off popular paths, and maybe it doesn't work out. 569 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,639 Speaker 2: So yeah, that's like the balancing of those two things. 570 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,400 Speaker 2: And how much you balance them depends on the number 571 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,240 Speaker 2: of picks you got to make, how frequently and all 572 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,359 Speaker 2: things like that. But it's a very complicated game, as 573 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 2: you know, because the committee, you know, the schedules different 574 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:38,439 Speaker 2: every year. And if you've got to make two Elite 575 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 2: eight picks, man, you got to really think about how, 576 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 2: I don't have teams competing in the same region, So 577 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 2: you really got to limit yourself to maybe one of 578 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 2: the good teams from each region that you pick before 579 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:54,160 Speaker 2: the Sweet sixteen, and otherwise take chances below those upper 580 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,560 Speaker 2: tier teams because you don't want two good teams in 581 00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 2: the same region. And then you just you're done by 582 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,200 Speaker 2: the Elite eight and then you're definitely done in that pool. 583 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:04,879 Speaker 1: Where do you come down on airport theory? Do you 584 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 1: believe that the universe just kind of like melds around 585 00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 1: you if you choose to leave, you know, forty five 586 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 1: minutes before your flight takes off. Somehow it'll work out 587 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 1: the ones that have never been burned by it swear 588 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:16,320 Speaker 1: by it, and then the rest of us are just, 589 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 1: you know, sitting paying for seventeen dollars cocktails at the 590 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:20,280 Speaker 1: airport bar waiting. 591 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean so agree. I don't live on the 592 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 2: East Coast, and I don't live in the airports where 593 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 2: I have to be there. Like I can literally roll 594 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 2: into the Kancity Airport and an hour before and walk 595 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 2: right through security on most nights. So my experience probably 596 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,960 Speaker 2: a little different, but I pushed the envelope sometimes. For sure, 597 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 2: I rarely have time to sit for a cocktail. I'll 598 00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,200 Speaker 2: just say that, especially if by if I don't if 599 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 2: I'm not checking anything. 600 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 1: One other thing I'd like to bring up in terms 601 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 1: of a survivor pool, just like we mentioned at the top, 602 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 1: you want to keep in you know in minds, how 603 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 1: many people are in the pool, how much you know risk, 604 00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 1: are you comfortable taking visa v how many people are there, 605 00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 1: and when you consider making it to the second week ends, 606 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,880 Speaker 1: having some kind of educated guests based on how many 607 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:03,760 Speaker 1: people you think are going. 608 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 2: To be there. 609 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 1: And the other part of it too is if you 610 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 1: go ahead and you save those top seeds and you 611 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 1: get to the second weekend Thursday Friday, those Sweet sixteen games, 612 00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 1: and then into the Elite eight, you have a great 613 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 1: hedging opportunity where all of a sudden, if you get 614 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 1: knocked out by a four upsetting a one, you can 615 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 1: go ahead and play that money line and at least 616 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 1: get your money back. On a situation like that, I 617 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,479 Speaker 1: think it's important not to necessarily silo your brackets, your 618 00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 1: Survivor pool, all these different options on March madness from 619 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 1: your regular bankroll management. I think it can be helpful 620 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 1: to kind of overlap it a little bit and kind 621 00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 1: of mitigate that risk. Is that something you get into 622 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 1: in terms of, you know, breaking down the game by game. 623 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I will think about that, and definitely with brackets 624 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 2: as I get in Survivor. You know, like last year, 625 00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 2: if I was I was a little overeight on Duke 626 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 2: and Survivor, I was a little more willing to play 627 00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:54,120 Speaker 2: against the near Elite eight Final four things like that 628 00:29:54,880 --> 00:30:00,160 Speaker 2: because I knew that. So I'm willing to balance how 629 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,440 Speaker 2: I do that, and certainly what you described is a 630 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 2: way to play it. I mean, people are always that's 631 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 2: one of my most common questions. By the way we 632 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,880 Speaker 2: have strategy questions people jump in because we have our 633 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 2: Survivor product, and they one of the things like hedging 634 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 2: and like how do I how do I set this up? 635 00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:19,960 Speaker 2: Or how do I hedge for this scenario? So those 636 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 2: are definitely popular questions people have, and yes, I think 637 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:25,880 Speaker 2: about it. I want to win money at March and 638 00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 2: I don't much care about which avenue hits the best 639 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,640 Speaker 2: as long as there's one that really hits, like, I'm 640 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 2: fine losing it the others, right, So that's how I 641 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 2: view it. Now. 642 00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:40,240 Speaker 1: You just mentioned the NC double, a survivor tool at 643 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 1: Pool Genius. The other one, of course, is your Bracket 644 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 1: Picks optimizer. What's something that you know a new user 645 00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,480 Speaker 1: can expect right away from the optimizer that they may 646 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,440 Speaker 1: not have considered before using a tool like that. 647 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,160 Speaker 2: I mean they're going to see like how good brackets 648 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,240 Speaker 2: should actually be built. And I mean that by like 649 00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,880 Speaker 2: this is what wins. I think people have a misconception 650 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 2: what wins pools and what doesn't. And we get some 651 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:06,720 Speaker 2: pushbacks sometimes, right, we get some pushback because they're like 652 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 2: I could have done this, Okay, did you? I mean, like, 653 00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 2: I mean that's seriously, because that's not how people pick. 654 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,480 Speaker 2: So and what I mean by that is like people 655 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 2: will sometimes be like, what is this really how? Yes, 656 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 2: this is what wins pools. Like, people, you don't win 657 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,200 Speaker 2: the pool and the year Loyola wins or goes to 658 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,040 Speaker 2: the Final four or the year Florida Atlantic by having 659 00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,400 Speaker 2: those teams as final four picks rarely. I mean, yeah, 660 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 2: great if you did it. But the entries that won 661 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,959 Speaker 2: those years were the entries that in twenty eighteen had 662 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:43,360 Speaker 2: Villanova's champion and identified them as the correct pick, and 663 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 2: maybe had Kansas and they won the pool, and none 664 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,200 Speaker 2: of them had loyal I promise you very few. I 665 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,040 Speaker 2: mean a couple of years ago, Yukon title winner as 666 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,760 Speaker 2: a four seed, that's what you needed. I'd look through 667 00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 2: a big pool of mine, and none of them had 668 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,760 Speaker 2: Florida Atlantic, none of them had San Diego State in 669 00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,080 Speaker 2: the title game. So I mean, you don't need to 670 00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 2: get like super crazy. You want to make picks that 671 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,560 Speaker 2: help you win. And so I think one thing they're 672 00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,720 Speaker 2: going to learn is what wins. I mean, we also 673 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,920 Speaker 2: have great data. You're going to see pick popularity data. 674 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 2: You're going to see round by round stuff. Just a 675 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:21,120 Speaker 2: Smorgas bord of information on like to think about if 676 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 2: you want to make your own picks, We're still going 677 00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 2: to present you the data. You're going to see how 678 00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,640 Speaker 2: the public's picking, where you can make stands that might 679 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 2: help you win your pool. So all that stuff is 680 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 2: in there, and it's just to me a great product 681 00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 2: to just see like a variety of just different ways 682 00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,800 Speaker 2: that you can win and how brackets are built, because 683 00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,800 Speaker 2: I think just people are way too haphazard and risky 684 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 2: and build their brackets the wrong way. A lot of 685 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,600 Speaker 2: people will build it backwards. Oh, I'll just pick who 686 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 2: I think will win that game. We think big picture. 687 00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,400 Speaker 2: I mean our simulations run it. But who's your champ, 688 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:00,640 Speaker 2: who are they playing in the final? How much leverage 689 00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:03,240 Speaker 2: you're getting, and then who is your final four? That's 690 00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 2: going to answer whether you win money in your pool. 691 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 1: All right, Jason, let's let's leave our audience with one 692 00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,760 Speaker 1: team double digit seed. They can hitch their wagon too. 693 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 1: I'll go first. South Florida is a team I'm a 694 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,720 Speaker 1: believer in. They are ten to one out in the 695 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,840 Speaker 1: market to make the Sweet sixteen. I think they're really 696 00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,280 Speaker 1: good value. Getting over at Louisville likely getting over Michigan 697 00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:28,600 Speaker 1: State because styles make fights and they play at a 698 00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 1: breakneck pace. All five of their starters average eleven points 699 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 1: or more. Isaiah Nelson is, you know, at least by 700 00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 1: mid and low major, a unicorn. He's six point ten. 701 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,600 Speaker 1: He's super bouncy. He's somebody who can be a defensive 702 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,000 Speaker 1: stopper if he stays out of foul trouble. That allows 703 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 1: them to hang with a big front court like Michigan 704 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 1: State will roll out. But just overall, they're going to 705 00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,680 Speaker 1: play at that increased pace, and the teams that aren't 706 00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,440 Speaker 1: comfortable doing so, I think you can put them in 707 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,640 Speaker 1: a bad situation. Louisville if mckel brown is not there, 708 00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,200 Speaker 1: they are not the same offense. And Michigan State, I 709 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 1: think you could. You saw it in some cases in 710 00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 1: Big ten play when they got into games in the 711 00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:06,160 Speaker 1: eighties and nineties, they ran out of gas late because 712 00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,520 Speaker 1: they put so much usage and pressure on Fears. That's 713 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:11,400 Speaker 1: a lot for him to handle for forty minutes. So 714 00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,360 Speaker 1: in terms of a team punching through as a double 715 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,759 Speaker 1: digit seed, I'll go with USF Who do you like? 716 00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:22,719 Speaker 2: I think you identified the best option, honestly so, and 717 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 2: I say that like I talked about, like how they 718 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:27,719 Speaker 2: sort of fit that profile and Moville does as well, 719 00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,520 Speaker 2: So yes, I agree with with USF, so I'll go 720 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:34,040 Speaker 2: with some others. Though it's a toss up for me. 721 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 2: I'm a Mazoo guy and you talked about a Zoo too, 722 00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,160 Speaker 2: so it's hard for me to say that in Purdue's region, 723 00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:42,839 Speaker 2: but they are playing in Saint Louis. They have been 724 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,759 Speaker 2: better with this lineup with Trint Peers and Jaydenstone. The 725 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:50,719 Speaker 2: issue has been turnovers at times and getting stops, but 726 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,120 Speaker 2: they can I think, score with Purdue, but they have 727 00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:54,960 Speaker 2: to beat Miami so they'd be on the short list. 728 00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,040 Speaker 2: But then I'm a Zoo fan. I can't really commit 729 00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,240 Speaker 2: to that because I know that it maybe it makes sense, 730 00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,040 Speaker 2: but it's going to burn me in the end. And 731 00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:03,880 Speaker 2: then the other one be if I can, if I 732 00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:07,680 Speaker 2: can split the baby, so to speak. Whoever comes out 733 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,560 Speaker 2: of the Texas in C State game hasn't been playing 734 00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,960 Speaker 2: well down the stretch, certainly, but they're gonna get a 735 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,839 Speaker 2: draw with a BYU team that doesn't play defense all 736 00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,480 Speaker 2: that great and is missing a key player, and they're 737 00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 2: gonna get against Zaga team who is missing a key 738 00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:25,799 Speaker 2: player and hasn't been playing as well as they were 739 00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:29,200 Speaker 2: when they had Brandenhoff, and so that path is there 740 00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:33,600 Speaker 2: with whoever can win in Dayton to basically revitalize their season, 741 00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:35,800 Speaker 2: kind of like Old Miss got revitalized in the SEC 742 00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:38,799 Speaker 2: tournament after a really struggling I think one of these 743 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,480 Speaker 2: teams is kind of they get a second second chance 744 00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,759 Speaker 2: on life. They haven't been great lately, but they do 745 00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,759 Speaker 2: have the ability and can be that surprise team that 746 00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:50,600 Speaker 2: we've seen from the Power Fives, that kind of break 747 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:53,799 Speaker 2: through because their draw isn't all that daunting to me, 748 00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 2: So they that would be one where I think the 749 00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,359 Speaker 2: possibility is there if those because they're both they're both 750 00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:03,000 Speaker 2: good enough on offense, I think to beat other teams 751 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,439 Speaker 2: that struggle on defense that are seated better than them. 752 00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,720 Speaker 1: One quick follow up question on Miszoo as it relates 753 00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,640 Speaker 1: to your methodology. They had four wins in the SEC 754 00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:15,239 Speaker 1: by five points or less, including that upset win over Florida. 755 00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:17,360 Speaker 1: Do you bake that in You saw in the opposite 756 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,400 Speaker 1: direction last year, Duke was unchallenged for about three months. 757 00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:22,640 Speaker 1: They got themselves in an end of game situation in 758 00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,080 Speaker 1: the Final four, and it got away from them against Houston. 759 00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:27,560 Speaker 1: Do you put any value in teams having to play 760 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:31,200 Speaker 1: those clutch crunch time minutes and knowing exactly when foul, 761 00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:33,040 Speaker 1: who they want to put to the line, how they're 762 00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,680 Speaker 1: thinking about, you know, being up three fouling, what they're 763 00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:37,160 Speaker 1: doing if they're down six and they're going for the 764 00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 1: quick two shooting threes. Sometimes that muscle memory seems to 765 00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:40,800 Speaker 1: help in March. 766 00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,239 Speaker 2: I think being in those situations helps, obviously, and it can. 767 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,640 Speaker 2: I think it definitely did impact Duke when they got 768 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,160 Speaker 2: into crunch line with a young team and hadn't been 769 00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,360 Speaker 2: in that situation very often. That said, I think teams 770 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 2: that there's also a luck factor to winning those games 771 00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,040 Speaker 2: hitting the keys. I mean, to be honest, A couple 772 00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:04,399 Speaker 2: of ourt games, A couple of those games when Mark 773 00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,640 Speaker 2: Mitchell hit the three was at Oklahoma. The double three 774 00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:11,560 Speaker 2: pointers not likely to happen. I wouldn't expect that to 775 00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:14,640 Speaker 2: be repeatable all that often, So there's a luck factor 776 00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:16,640 Speaker 2: to it. But I think being in those pressure situations 777 00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:20,080 Speaker 2: more does help some of these teams because if the 778 00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,879 Speaker 2: better seeds haven't been tested that much and then they 779 00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:25,480 Speaker 2: get into a grinded out game with an underdog that 780 00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:27,880 Speaker 2: can play a slow pace and kind of start to 781 00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:29,759 Speaker 2: build that pressure on them because there's just not that 782 00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:33,080 Speaker 2: many possessions and all that stuff. I think that pressure 783 00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,839 Speaker 2: can build and those teams will have advantage if they've 784 00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:38,200 Speaker 2: been in that situation down the stretch. And we see 785 00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,799 Speaker 2: that in the tournament all the time, where you kind 786 00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:42,520 Speaker 2: of hit that point and you're like, Oh, this dog's 787 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,280 Speaker 2: live to win because this team is feeling that pressure 788 00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,439 Speaker 2: and they haven't dealt with this very much. 789 00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,719 Speaker 1: Jason, appreciate your time. If you want to get a 790 00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,840 Speaker 1: feel for all of their tools, their Optimizer, Survivor, and 791 00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:56,600 Speaker 1: their regular bracket pools, head on over to Pool Genius. 792 00:37:56,880 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 1: That's it for today's episode of the Action Network Podcasts. 793 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,080 Speaker 1: To our audience, we are pumping out March Madness content 794 00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:05,239 Speaker 1: and left and right, either on this channel or over 795 00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,480 Speaker 1: at the Big Bets on Campus channel as well. You 796 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,840 Speaker 1: can find this on YouTube and make sure that you 797 00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,840 Speaker 1: don't miss any of the plays, including Doctor Nick coming 798 00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,280 Speaker 1: in with his player props that have been an absolute 799 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:18,160 Speaker 1: ATM over the past three seasons, so you won't want 800 00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:20,960 Speaker 1: to miss that. Always get the best bets critically at 801 00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:22,719 Speaker 1: the best prices You can sign up for Action Pro 802 00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,319 Speaker 1: as well to help out with that. For Jason Lisk, 803 00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,399 Speaker 1: I'm Mike Calberies. Thank you so much for listening. Best 804 00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:28,920 Speaker 1: of luck with all your bets, and we'll see you 805 00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:38,440 Speaker 1: at the window. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 806 00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,680 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 807 00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,560 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 808 00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:45,480 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler