WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 9, 2024 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:06.800 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.920 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.240 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:36.879 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin with our 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:39.519 top story, stock setting fresh record highs as investor, as 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:42.760 a wait, FED shared Jaypouse testimony Academy's Peter Cheer right. 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:45.800 In this we have argued quite aggressively that the FED 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:48.640 should make their first cut in July, partly because the 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:52.600 economic data supports it, but also taking the spotlight off 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:55.440 of the FED in the heat of the election. Peter 0:00:55.560 --> 0:00:58.240 joins us now for more pink and mornit. The reasons 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:00.960 once about the economy, the second about the politics. So 0:01:01.000 --> 0:01:03.960 let's start with the second one, the politics. Why is 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:06.319 that an important consideration for this Federal Reserve? 0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:07.880 Well, I'm going to start with the first one, which 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:11.199 but basically every guest has been on saying September looks 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:13.119 likely they should be doing, they should be acting sooner 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.800 than later. I completely agree, and if anything, I would 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:17.480 air to the side that they do it in July. 0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:19.919 If you do this in September, I just in visional 0:01:19.959 --> 0:01:22.679 world where this is going to blow up in social media. Clearly, 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:25.680 if they cut in September, say stocks rally three five percent, 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:29.839 you will see the Trump campaign aggressively go after the FED, 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:32.600 blame them for playing favorites. It won't be the case, 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:35.399 but that the reality doesn't mean anything anymore, right, It's 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:37.720 how these things play out in the social media narrative 0:01:38.000 --> 0:01:40.240 is what's important. You do the first cut in July, 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:42.480 you'll get some flak, but it's Suly thirty first, no 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:45.080 one cares. It'll quiet down and you can move on 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:47.080 and you set up a September rate cut. I think 0:01:47.160 --> 0:01:49.240 much easier. That's how I would play it. You know, 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:51.360 maybe you're not supposed to think that way, but to me, 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:52.160 it makes the most sense. 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:54.760 We've drowned to distinction, repeat today this morning, persuade what 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:56.640 they should do and what it will do. This is 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:58.240 what you think they should do, what do you think 0:01:58.240 --> 0:01:59.920 they will do, and what do you expect to hit 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:01.400 d from Cham and Pound this morning. 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:03.000 I think they're going to set us up for September. 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:04.559 I think they're going to continue to look at the data. 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:06.000 I think the data is going to come in weak. 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:08.840 I'm hopeful that CPI comes in low enough. Maybe it 0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:11.160 lets them squeeze towards July. But I think it's already 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:13.280 too late with the messaging. So I think we get 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:17.320 that September cut twenty five, then another twenty five in November, 0:02:17.400 --> 0:02:19.200 and then twenty five in December, so we get seventy 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:19.760 five this year. 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:21.840 Some people would say that just because the Fed has 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:23.680 even signaled to cut, we've already gotten the easing and 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:26.800 financial conditions that have given a shot of stimulus to 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:29.640 the economy. Why is that not the case, as we 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:33.359 have just experienced the thirty five, thirty fifth record high 0:02:33.360 --> 0:02:33.839 of this year. 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:35.800 Well, so, for example, I just pulled up the equal 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:39.280 weight to SMP, which month to data is down two 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:42.120 point two percent. Year to date is up three and 0:02:42.120 --> 0:02:45.280 a half percent. So this market has been very narrow rally, right. 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:48.560 It's really all about AI. The AI story this transitional, 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:50.680 So I don't think we should set policy based on 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:53.359 the excitement over AI. Right, if AI is real, it 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:55.840 might still be undervalued. So when you look at the 0:02:55.919 --> 0:02:58.239 broad market, you know, the Russell two thousand still done 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:01.240 poorly value stocks. So I think we get caught up 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:04.079 in the broad indices. You look below the surface, markets 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:06.440 are only doing okay. I think the job data is turning. 0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:09.480 It's turning fairly quickly, and with inflation around two point 0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:12.560 eight percent or somewhere in that neighborhood, you don't want 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:14.480 to risk a recession. Back when we were five percent, 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:16.840 the Fed could afford a risk a recession, right, inflation 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:19.240 was so bad, so painful, they could do that. Now 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:22.200 there's no reason to create a recession. So all those 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:25.520 reasons tell me cut now. Even if financial conditions look 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:27.760 pretty decent. And I've liked in the last week or so, 0:03:27.919 --> 0:03:30.520 twos tens is widening, and I do think one thing 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:32.360 people are going to, you know, find mistake in this 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:34.639 time is even as the FED cuts, I don't think 0:03:34.680 --> 0:03:36.720 tens and thirties are going to respond that much. I 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:38.680 think tens and thirties are going to focus on the deficit. 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:41.560 The supply, and you're going to see twos tens go 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:45.280 back to zero, maybe slightly, you know, even uninverted over time, 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:47.000 and you're going to see that four thirty to four 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:49.480 to fifty range on tens hold even when the Fed 0:03:49.520 --> 0:03:50.320 begins cutting rates. 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:51.400 There's a lot to unpack there. 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:52.360 Let's go to the deficit. 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:55.680 I am curious about how much the politics of the moment. 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:55.920 You guys are. 0:03:57.320 --> 0:03:59.880 I'm serious because this is something that people talk about. 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:02.800 We just had Kelsey barrow On saying by the time year, I. 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:04.600 Know you guys are lacking my obsession. 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:07.080 It is important at a time, especially when you have 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:09.800 all of the monoptions this week. How much are you 0:04:09.800 --> 0:04:10.360 looking at that. 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:12.520 It's something that sort of takes away that. 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:15.560 The opportunity to really buy into weakness. 0:04:15.680 --> 0:04:18.400 So again, I think that's why yields are going to 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:20.440 stay somewhat high, suddenly high at the long end. It 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:23.360 comes up in conversation after conversation, And what I try 0:04:23.400 --> 0:04:25.880 and bring back is if you remember August and September 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:28.960 last year, where treasuries were sale every single day, I 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:31.200 think we went from four percent to five percent no 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:33.760 matter what the data was. Maybe we'd rally briefly treasuries 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:36.000 go for sale. There's a huge fixation on the deficit, 0:04:36.120 --> 0:04:38.920 our willingness to kind of talk about not paying. You're 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:40.800 going to see episodes of that. It's not going to 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:44.000 be NonStop. It's not consistent, right because this deficit is 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:45.760 going to take time. But I would expect every year 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:47.719 or so you get that sort of noise. Even earlier 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.200 this year, right we went from three ninety to four seventy, 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:52.520 same sort of trend. So I think more and more 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:54.719 you're going to see these breaks to the upside on 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:57.840 yields because people fixate on the deficit and neither party 0:04:57.880 --> 0:04:58.560 is going to change suse. 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:01.720 You don't buy those those SIPs in price, not until we. 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:03.560 Get not until we get high enough in that range. 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:06.560 Because I think everyone's comfortable with treasuries right now. I 0:05:06.600 --> 0:05:09.520 think people position too long. So down here at four thirty, 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:12.440 I'm selling treasuries. You know, maybe they go to four twenty. 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:14.480 I think we get back to four fifty before long, 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:16.480 even with the FED cutting, I think that's going to be. 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:18.760 The realization is, yeah, whatever the Fed's doing at the 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:21.240 front end is great, but it doesn't solve the deficit problem. 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:23.520 It doesn't solve our long term debt problems, and this 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:26.359 overall supply is still real. So that's why I'm not 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:27.400 back comfort the long end. 0:05:27.480 --> 0:05:29.960 Quick go back to the optics, the political optics of 0:05:30.000 --> 0:05:32.760 a September cut. Take that a step further. It's not 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:35.360 just going to be that the Trump campaign would come 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:37.679 out and maybe say, you know, they're in the tank 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:40.520 for President Biden. If Trump is elected, does this give 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:42.560 him the excuse with his own party to go back 0:05:42.560 --> 0:05:44.200 to that Wall Street Journal report, which is that they 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:45.960 want to blunt the independence of the FED? 0:05:46.520 --> 0:05:46.719 Yeah. 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:48.599 I think if you over the last year or so, right, 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:50.440 there's a lot more both from Trump and others talking 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:53.640 about the Fed's independence, questioning you know, Congress, what Congress 0:05:53.640 --> 0:05:56.600 says over the FED. I think if they cut in September, 0:05:57.040 --> 0:05:59.719 it leaves them much more open to under a new 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:03.200 administration attack about what their mandate is, whether they have 0:06:03.240 --> 0:06:06.040 to be rule followers, how much flexibility they have. Again, 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:08.160 I think all of that may play out one way 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.120 or the other. I think it's less likely if they 0:06:10.120 --> 0:06:12.640 do this in July. And again, the data is there 0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:15.720 for them to think about cutting, and you would argue, right, 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:17.960 I think other people have is this lag effect, why 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:20.240 not get a couple cuts in earlier. I just feel 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:22.280 it would be very prudent and better for the fed's 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:25.360 long term health and independence to get something done sooner 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:25.760 than later. 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:28.200 And does he need to signal that today. 0:06:29.400 --> 0:06:32.200 I think he should be pretty strong about if we 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:34.800 get good enough date in the coming weeks, we could 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:37.279 cut sooner. And that kind of gives him a little 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:41.440 bit of like CPI I think will actually be a miss, 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:43.280 so it'll be lower than expected. So I don't know 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:45.279 whether that's not a mis or win anymore, and however 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:46.960 we want to interpret it, but I think we'll get 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:49.640 a lower CPI. Any problems with CPI will either be 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:52.520 one off things explainable, or to be housing related, which 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:55.360 everyone now knows is lagged effect. It's one reason the 0:06:55.360 --> 0:06:57.360 FED looks at pc and I've been learning more and 0:06:57.440 --> 0:06:59.600 more about this. But suppose it would take an act 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:01.880 of cong risk to change how CPI uses that, which 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:03.800 is why people go to cp You know, you look 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:06.799 at anything like Zillow or anything that's kind of contemporaneous 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:10.040 rent let's come way down, so it's artificially inflated. I 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:11.880 think those are the things that give him the leeway 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:14.520 between the jobs report and that to like put July 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:15.080 on the table. 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:17.320 It Councy Barrow is with us about ten to fifteen 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:20.520 minutes ago, and shade really through a distinction between cunning 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:23.200 interest rights to fine tune policy and response to disinflation 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:26.040 and cunning interest rights and response to a much weaker 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:29.360 labor market. Now I said that there were bearish right 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:31.760 cuts and bullish right cuts, I'd actually let your opinion 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:34.440 on that. Do barish rate cuts exist? Are there right 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:36.440 cuts that are bearish for this market? 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:36.800 You know? 0:07:37.000 --> 0:07:38.840 I think it's all relative what's been priced in. So 0:07:38.960 --> 0:07:41.920 right now, I think, yeah, if we had a really 0:07:42.000 --> 0:07:45.040 you know, steep dropping employment, then we get a Barish 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:47.360 rate cut, and maybe equities couldn't keep up and couldn't 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:49.080 keep going. But as it stands right now, I think 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:51.520 everything's going to be really positive. I think we're all 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:54.760 sitting there trying to watch what triggers this breakout though 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:57.480 of the Rustle two thousand. The value the equal weighted 0:07:57.560 --> 0:07:59.960 versus that still to me isn't clear. 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:00.280 Right. 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:02.280 It feels to me we've been on this path where 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:04.080 the data is good enough you should see the broad 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:06.880 economy doing well. The fed's accommodate enough, you should do that, 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:08.360 and those still aren't working. 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:11.080 We all remember November twenty sixteen, and we've talked about 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:13.520 this a few times. Small caps rallied almost eleven percent 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:17.000 in November twenty sixteen. On the Trump election. I think 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:18.920 a question we've all gone back to around the type 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:20.520 in the last couple of weeks. It's just how relevant 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:24.360 that playbook is this time around? Is it relevant at all? 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:26.600 You know, I'm kind of ignoring most of the election stuff. 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:29.040 I think, one, it's too clear what's going to go on, 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:31.880 who's going to be even representing? And I think we 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:33.960 see time and time again, right, whatever they say they're 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:36.040 going to do, the policies wind up coming. 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:36.640 Much more and narrow. 0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:39.000 I've been a big fan of Mexico recently, right, there 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:40.959 was a lot of concern after the Mexican elections that 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:43.240 would change. You saw the Mexican takes all that's coming 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:45.320 back to normal. Right, Whatever you say to get elected 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:47.839 and whatever you wind up doing tend to be two 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:50.040 very different things. So I'm paying very little attention to 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:53.640 any other rhetoric. And I would say on top of 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:55.719 all of it is it feels that people are very 0:08:55.720 --> 0:08:57.720 willing to put their own interpretations on it. 0:08:57.760 --> 0:08:59.160 So if you're empty, if. 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:01.760 We get politically in chose dislocations in the markets through 0:09:01.800 --> 0:09:03.439 this summer, you're a buyer. 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:05.559 A buyer, Yes, that's. 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:08.080 Exactly what Cassie Burrow said ten minutes ago, even. 0:09:07.960 --> 0:09:10.640 Though her sense of what to buy was somewhat different. 0:09:10.800 --> 0:09:13.240 So that's I guess my question to you, what are 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.319 you a buyer of during the silication? 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:18.000 So the one thing I would say, maybe slightly different, 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:20.959 is I do like energy, And I would say, when 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:22.840 you look at the world right now, you've got Pudin, 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:27.760 dictator g dictator Kim, dictator Kumane, effectively a dictator. They 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:29.880 have to be looking at what's going on here, and 0:09:29.920 --> 0:09:32.560 they probably don't understand our political system, but they see 0:09:32.600 --> 0:09:34.600 the leader of the free world, the commander in chief, 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:38.319 you know, internally focused facing all these questions. I think 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:40.360 the risk that someone takes some action and tries to 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:42.760 take advantage of that over the summer is much higher. 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:45.040 So I am looking for the potential for a geopolitical 0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:47.240 risk that I would not fade, and that's why I 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:49.440 kind of want to own commodities ahead of that. I 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:52.640 think almost anything that gets done would affect energy prices 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:55.800 in particular. And on top of that, not quite even 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:58.840 in that same vein, we're sitting here all this internal focus. 0:09:59.040 --> 0:10:02.400 Obon's traveling to Russia, right, Pudin and Modi met, the 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:05.040 rest of the world's moving on. Well, we're internally focused. 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:06.840 That I don't like for the future. 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:09.679 I got to squeeze this in. You're surrounded by generals 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:13.000 at academy. You just said take advantage. What does taking 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:14.640 advantage look like? What does that mean? 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.160 You know? I think if you watch what's going on right, 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:18.880 the last time we did funding for Ukraine, right, A 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:20.880 lot of this plays out in social media. How difficult 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:23.040 that was to get over the hurdle. You watch what's 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:25.360 been going on with Israel and Goza, where we're supposed 0:10:25.360 --> 0:10:26.840 to support what we're not supposed to do. A lot 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:29.840 again plays out in social media. So we're having a 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:32.760 lot of activity around the second Thomas Shoal in the Philippines, 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:35.480 a couple hundred miles off the coast of Philippines. Would 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:37.960 anyone really care? What would we do if something like that? 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:38.200 So? 0:10:38.480 --> 0:10:41.240 I think we're already stretched. We have engaged in two 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:45.000 wars neither of those. Are you going smoothly? Certainly by 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:47.560 any stretch of the imagination. So do you push the envelope? 0:10:47.600 --> 0:10:50.640 Do you do something different? I think China could do 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:53.600 something maybe, you know North Korea has been extremely quiet. 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:56.520 Do you get weapons sales, something to just shake it 0:10:56.600 --> 0:10:59.000 up where they view that one. We're stretched too. They 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:01.680 can use misinformation social media to push against us, and 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:04.439 the time frame is right for that, where we already 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.640 have enough questions without their misinformation. 0:11:06.800 --> 0:11:08.319 Pete, we could do this all low. It's going to 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:10.160 see you. I know you've got to go. Pitch of 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:23.000 Academy Security, Democratic donor Troy Beck saying he would like 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:26.120 to see Biden drop out, try and police to say, John, 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:28.360 just now try wonderful to catch up with you, sir. 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:30.440 For people in the audience who aren't familiar with you, 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:33.760 can you just share with us how you've supported democratic 0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:36.600 causes this president in years gone by and what changed 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:38.559 for you two thursdays ago. 0:11:40.040 --> 0:11:44.880 So I've been a defender of President Biden as first 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:47.840 of all his presidency. I think by any objective measure, 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:52.320 he's done an extraordinary job. You know, he has passed 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:57.080 to infrastructure bills, one of them bipartisan chips bill, prescription drugs, 0:11:57.200 --> 0:11:59.679 addressing you know, real issues for Americans. 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:02.480 And I think on a sort. 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:05.600 Of degree of difficulty adjusted basis, if you consider he's 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:10.760 facing an incredibly hostile opposition, one that in many cases 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.760 doesn't even recognize the you know, legitimacy of his clear 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:16.800 win in twenty twenty, right, that's the conditions in which 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:19.439 he's operating. I think he can make a case he's 0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:22.400 the best Democratic president of my lifetime in terms of 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:25.560 what he has accomplished. I supported him in twenty twenty, 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:29.280 I supported him again in this cycle, and to be clear, 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.120 however this resolves, I will support him or whoever the 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:36.280 Democratic nominee is. And I think that's an important, an 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:39.840 important note. I think whatever happens with this you know, 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:43.480 inter family squabble, we're going to have to unify around 0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:45.640 our candidate, and if that's Biden, I will get behind him. 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:46.800 I'll walk on glass for the guy. 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:51.520 What's changed is that the debate confirmed, you know, the 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:54.800 concerns that I think everybody had, and I think most 0:12:54.840 --> 0:13:00.480 notably don't voters. I think the Biden campaign has very 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:03.880 understandably come out and shrewdly attacked this as sort of 0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:08.880 a you know, a cabal led by elites or donors millionaires. 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:10.959 In that quote you just showed if I were them, 0:13:10.960 --> 0:13:13.720 that's what i'd say too. But I think what's actually 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:18.400 happening here is that in a sense, donors and the 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:20.679 electeds who have come out and I've talked to elected 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:24.199 privately who share their concerns and would like to change, 0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:26.280 but are not there yet to do it publicly, And 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:28.360 I understand some of the calculations there. 0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:30.400 I think what's. 0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:32.520 Happening is people are coming around to exactly the view 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:36.040 that voters have been expressing through polls for a year. 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:37.679 I think that's what's going on. 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:40.800 And so I think that what the debate confirmed, and 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:44.360 for that matter, the radio interview he did and the 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:48.920 Stephanopolis interview, they have confirmed the degree of impairment from age. 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.599 So it's true. Everyone knew that, you know, this was 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:54.000 an eighty one year old man running for president, and 0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:57.839 that's hard. What we were hoping for was that he 0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:02.240 was anomalous and that he would have the the stamina 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:05.160 and acuity to do this. And I think what a 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:08.800 lot of people are saying now is we need a 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:12.880 candidate who can express, who can make the case, you know, 0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:15.920 with the vigor that this moment deserves, given the authoritarian 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:19.280 threat that we face in Trump and the administration that 0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:20.080 he would install. 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:22.720 Trey is the concern with you and the people you're 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:26.840 speaking with about Biden winning in November or Biden's ability 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:28.640 to govern for the next four years. 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:31.680 I think the two are related, right. 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:36.640 So, historically Biden has represented a you know, a vote 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:40.080 for safety. In twenty twenty, he was you know, old 0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:42.840 by the standards of somebody running for president, but he 0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:45.000 was considered establishment. 0:14:45.200 --> 0:14:46.240 He was coherent. 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:51.160 He was not saying crazy things and threatening authoritarian policies 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:55.120 like the alternative, which was Donald Trump. I think what 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:59.920 some voters are struggling with now is they already know Trump. 0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:01.720 Is a bad guy. 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:05.200 They know he lies, they know he's literally a criminal, 0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:10.840 He's a convicted criminal. They know he is threatening policy 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:15.239 implementation that they don't agree with, whether it's reproductive rights, 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:18.000 uh you know, uh, firing you know, much of the 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:22.040 civil service, and installing loyalists, using the the judiciary to 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:26.960 punish people. But they're struggling with this because they now 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:31.040 see a less vigorous Joe Biden and I don't blame 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:34.040 Joe Biden for this. I believe that the Biden campaign, 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:36.920 when they green lit this campaign, had a different candidate. 0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:42.280 And I think what we've seen is uh is significant impairment. 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:44.600 I'm not a doctor, but I saw what I saw, 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:48.200 and others saw what they saw, and we need somebody 0:15:48.240 --> 0:15:51.560 to make the case during the campaign and then, of course, 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:54.440 should we win, and I fervently hope we do. We 0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:57.240 want someone with the vigor to do one of the 0:15:57.240 --> 0:15:59.480 hardest jobs in the world. Now, I want to make 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:05.200 clear I don't have any substance of concerns about Biden's age. 0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:08.240 You're not electing one person, You're electing a team. In 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:10.960 my mind and many many people I know understand this. 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:15.440 You're talking about an army of bureaucrats high and low. 0:16:16.400 --> 0:16:19.360 And I know the team that Trump is assembling. I 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:21.800 know what he assembled previously and what he's talking about 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:25.840 doing now is worse and frightening. And I know that 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:30.400 Biden is surrounded by hyper competent people handling things domestically 0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:36.360 and abroad. But you know, the way most voters see 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:39.200 it is they see two names on the ballot, or 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:41.000 in this case, maybe three or four, depending on the 0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:41.520 state they live. 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:44.680 It's right, didn't his team around him do the American 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:47.400 people disservice by hiding a lot of these issues that 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:49.920 they have of the past few months that we saw 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:53.560 out full display for ninety minutes on CNN two thursdays ago. 0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:56.920 You know a lot of people are making that case. 0:16:57.720 --> 0:16:58.240 I don't know. 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:01.480 I don't know what the campaign sees, I don't know 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:03.680 what his staff sees on a day to day basis. 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:06.439 I'm not here to make that sort of allegation, you know, 0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:08.680 of a cover up. What I'll say is, we did 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:11.840 see what we saw. I think we've seen things previously, 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:15.920 and people rightly say, well, haven't there been signs of 0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:19.760 decline or physical impairment, you know, slower Gate, et cetera, 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:23.360 you know, prior to the debate. Absolutely, But I think 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:25.800 what we were hoping was that those were anomalous, and 0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:28.960 I think when we saw on the biggest stage the 0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:33.119 performance we saw, you know, it confirmed a lot of 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:34.119 people's concerns. 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:35.440 Yeah, well try. 0:17:35.480 --> 0:17:38.159 There is also this issue of whether Joe Biden is 0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:41.520 currently operating at the same playbook with the same playbook 0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:44.320 in some ways, the Donald Trump is by just something 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:47.520 coming out and being defiant and saying people get in line. 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:49.280 Yeah. 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:53.560 So, on the one hand, I do find that dispiriting 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:59.200 that you know, he's describing you know, everyone as either 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:03.200 a cabala the lead or you know, acting in bad faith. 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:06.760 On the other hand, the positive of that is he's fighting, 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:11.760 and he's showing the sort of scrappy joe that got 0:18:11.840 --> 0:18:15.720 him elected. His campaign has clearly mobilized and forced to 0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:20.400 you know, enlist allies. Now a lot has been made 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:23.479