1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome. All right, here we go. 3 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 3: Throwing in Joe spect. 4 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: We're saying it's a catch touch down. 5 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 4: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 6 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 4: go to Wind. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: That's incredible. 8 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. 9 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabaki. 10 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 3: You want to pack and we are underway. 11 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 5: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by 12 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 5: Fan Duel. I'm your host today, Brendan Glasheen. Today's episode 13 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:47,520 Speaker 5: Week sixteen NFL Best Bets. It is Holiday week, eleven 14 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 5: games Saturday, three on Sunday, and we have Monday Night Football. 15 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 5: Joining the pod this week Jill Galant, Luke swayn Aka 16 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 5: Vegas Refund you can find that account over on the 17 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 5: Twitter sphere and filling in for Brandon Anderson. We welcome 18 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:06,400 Speaker 5: back Anthony Debundo. 19 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 3: His third appearance on the pod this year. 20 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 5: He's just into the holidays. He's so happy to be 21 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 5: back for holiday season. The Best Bets Podcast went five 22 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 5: and four last week. We're at seventy two fifty nine 23 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 5: to four record for the season. And as a reminder, 24 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 5: you can follow along in the Action app. You can 25 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 5: follow the account that has our picks logged there. Action 26 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 5: Network NFL Picks Sunday six pack from Raymond and Stuckey 27 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 5: also in there. Before we jump into the picks, We've 28 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 5: got a new segment here on the podcast, see You're Innovative, 29 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 5: Thinking New as the year winds down. Will be joined 30 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 5: by Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams, the engine 31 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 5: behind our Action Labs database. We've shouted out his name 32 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 5: a bunch on the podcast. He delivers great tidbits and information. 33 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 5: He shares his favorite stats and trends heading into the weekend, Evan, 34 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 5: please take it away. 35 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 4: All right, Welcome to Week sixteen, the official week of 36 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 4: the bomb site clones in weather madness. Let's cycle through 37 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 4: some notes on the chaos. Ten of the sixteen games 38 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 4: this week are in store for freezing temperatures with eight 39 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:13,959 Speaker 4: twenty degrees or colder. This week we have eight totals 40 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 4: below forty. The last week we've had eight totals below 41 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 4: forty Week one, twenty ten. Some perspective, that's Sam Bradford's 42 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 4: first start for the Rams. I'm honestly not sure how 43 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 4: we can't talk about Saints Brown's this week. High temperatures 44 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 4: are expected to be around thirteen degrees, with wins sitting 45 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 4: at around thirty miles an hour and gust reaching as 46 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 4: high as sixty to seventy miles an hour with an 47 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 4: over under of thirty one and a half. This would 48 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 4: be the lowest total in fourteen years. In the last 49 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 4: twenty years, we've seen fifty two total games with twenty 50 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 4: mile an hour wins are greater from an actionable point 51 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 4: of view. Of those fifty two games, five of the 52 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 4: eight coldest we're all in Cleveland. The final scores for 53 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 4: those games twenty three to seventeen, eight nothing, twenty one 54 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 4: to nothing, thirteen to six fourteen nothing. Aside from the weather, 55 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 4: how can we talk about anything but the Lions. Detroit 56 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 4: has covered the spread in seven consecutive games. The last 57 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 4: time Detroit covered seven straight in the same season nineteen 58 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 4: ninety one, which was the last time the Lion made 59 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:26,119 Speaker 4: it past the wild Card round to the playoffs. Now, 60 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 4: for one of the most up and down teams this year, 61 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 4: it's got to be Seattle Island. Seattle has lost five 62 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 4: consecutive games against the spread heading into KC. Seattle hasn't 63 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 4: lost five consecutive games against the spread in the same 64 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 4: season since Matt Hasselbeck and Shawn Alexander days back in 65 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 4: two thousand and three, and fear cold. 66 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 3: Fact and arrowhead. 67 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:54,119 Speaker 4: The Seahawks and Chiefs are scheduled for about eleven degrees, 68 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 4: the second coldest Seahawks game in the last twenty years, 69 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 4: the coldest Vikings fans Blair Walsh. When it comes to 70 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 4: the Bengals Patriots game, the Bengals have won and covered 71 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 4: six straight games. The last time they won and covered 72 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:13,839 Speaker 4: seven straight, you'd have to go all the way back 73 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:17,359 Speaker 4: to the nineteen seventy season. That year ended to a 74 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 4: loss with Johnny Unitis and the Colts. 75 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 2: In the playoffs. 76 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 4: Finally, I can't let you go without two Joe cool facts. 77 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 4: Joe Burrow is eighteen and three against the spread in 78 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 4: his last twenty one starts, and Joe Burrow has excelled 79 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 4: in cold temperatures in his career. In fifty degrees or less, 80 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 4: he's ten and two straight up, eleven to one against 81 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 4: the spread, and forty degrees or less five and oh 82 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 4: straight up, five and oh against the spread. Anyone looking 83 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 4: for the upset with Chicago this week. Over the last 84 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 4: two seasons, the Bears are four and twenty one straight 85 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,280 Speaker 4: up as underdogs, the least profitable team on the money 86 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 4: lines underdogs in the NFL. And finally, just something I 87 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 4: just couldn't believe when I saw the Ravens. You haven't 88 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 4: won and covered a home game since November of last season, 89 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:07,359 Speaker 4: eight straight games. We'll see if they can get it 90 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 4: done now this week. 91 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 5: All right, thank you having great stuff there as always, 92 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 5: and without further ado, let's jump into the best bets 93 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 5: for Week sixteen. Evan laid it out nicely, Jill will 94 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:19,160 Speaker 5: go to you first. Your first best bet for. 95 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 3: Week sixteen, Absolutely, Brendon. 96 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 6: We're going to start with the Chicago Bears versus the 97 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 6: Buffalo Bills, and I'm going to take the Chicago Bears 98 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 6: to cover at plus eight and a half. And we 99 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 6: talked about this on the Recap podcast this past week, 100 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 6: Brandon and I. The Bills defense just isn't shutting teams 101 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 6: down like they used to. Dolphins ran all over them 102 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 6: in the snow game, or he moster, if he had 103 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 6: played every snap for the full four quarters, would have 104 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 6: been on pace for about four hundred yards rushing just 105 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 6: after the first quarter. And the Bears offense is just 106 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 6: completely geared towards the run, and if they're effective, which 107 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 6: they should be against this Bill's defense, they can keep 108 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:57,600 Speaker 6: Josh Allen off the field. The Bears averaged the most 109 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 6: rush yards per game rush yards per carry, they have 110 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 6: the most first downs rushing, and they've only lost three 111 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 6: games all season by nine ten of points, both to 112 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 6: the Packers and the Cowboys, a game that they still 113 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 6: put up twenty nine points on, by the way, and 114 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 6: Josh Allen and the Bills, they have a tendency to 115 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 6: play down of their competition. Like when they play a 116 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 6: defense that is allowing giving up twenty four more points 117 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 6: per game, they're about fifteen to fifteen against the spread 118 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 6: lifetime this season. When they face defenses that are giving 119 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 6: up a ton of points, they're one to three and 120 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 6: one against the spread. So for me, I'm going to 121 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 6: be taking the Bears to cover as a big home 122 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 6: dog in the spot. 123 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 5: Okay, So Josh Allen in his career in the month 124 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 5: of December has played well straight up seven and four 125 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,359 Speaker 5: against the spread, But Jill's going the other way because 126 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 5: of what's been going on this year with the Buffalo 127 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 5: Bills and those big numbers. 128 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 3: Luke, your next first best bet so my first. 129 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 7: One is going to be the Niners, who are going 130 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 7: to be laying a touchdown hosting the Washington Commanders. This 131 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 7: one is really and it's honestly just it's pretty straightforward 132 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 7: as well, where Taylor Heinekee feels like he is on 133 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 7: the verge of just falling on his face, and the 134 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 7: Niners defense, in my opinion, is probably the most dominant 135 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 7: unit in the entire league right now, where like I 136 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 7: totally like I went against them with the Seahawks, and 137 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 7: I went against them with who they played with before. 138 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,119 Speaker 1: Bucks. Yeah, I think I went against them, yeah, which 139 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 1: like and if I remember. 140 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 3: Directly, you may have gone against them when they played 141 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 3: the Chargers. 142 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: Eh, maybe not Dolphins. 143 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 2: They played the Dolphins before that. 144 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, either way, Like, within like the first quarter, I 145 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 7: to like the second you just watch this defense, you 146 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 7: just regret betting against them. And this is just a 147 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 7: scenario where I mean we're hearing that like Carson Wentz 148 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 7: is in the conversation of playing again, which tells you 149 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 7: all you need to know in terms of the team's 150 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 7: confidence in Heineke, and I was going against a defense 151 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 7: that hasn't allowed seventeen or more points since we seven 152 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 7: of the Chiefs, and that was a banged up Chiefs 153 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 7: team going against Taylor Anne who hasn't played a top 154 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 7: ten defense in terms of the EPA outside of the Eagles, 155 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 7: who were totally banged up in that game as well. 156 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 7: So this is just a coaching edge, a like every 157 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 7: edge is the Niners, and this is staying on seven, 158 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 7: which is kind of suspect. 159 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: I think if. 160 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 7: Chase comes back, who Chase Young is deemed healthy, if 161 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 7: that brings in money on the Washington side, I would 162 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 7: love for this six and a half, but it does 163 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:38,439 Speaker 7: seem like it's staying where it is. I would probably 164 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 7: just wait to see if that does bring a six 165 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 7: and a half into play, which I would jump on that. 166 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 7: But this is just a Taylor Heinekey situation that is 167 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,319 Speaker 7: trending down going against the best union in the entire league, 168 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 7: and I just don't know how they're gonna score more 169 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 7: than two touchdowns if that, so I'll take the Niners 170 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:53,559 Speaker 7: minds seven. 171 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 5: The Taylor Heineke Show took its first loss against the 172 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 5: spread this past weekend, so he's now six to two 173 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 5: to one in his last nine against the number. And 174 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 5: we've referenced this quite a bit riding this guy eleven 175 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 5: four to one against the number his last sixteen star 176 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:15,079 Speaker 5: Tonicky at quarterback. And yes, the reporting today is Chase 177 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 5: Young will make his debut this his season debut against 178 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:20,719 Speaker 5: the Niners. So that is on track still, Luke, that's 179 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 5: good news for that team. But we'll find out if 180 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:27,680 Speaker 5: the Niners can sustain it and keep Party protected. 181 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, and it's just the last thing, like Heinike's like 182 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 7: third worst in turnover where he plays there, worse than PFF. 183 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 7: And this is just very much a matchup similar to 184 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 7: the Bucks game that the Niners played where they put 185 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 7: up thirty five on the Bucks defense. I just Party 186 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:51,199 Speaker 7: is like they're doing the same exact thing with Perty 187 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 7: that they were doing with the other two quarterbacks. 188 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 1: So I had that written down. I just wanted to 189 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:57,559 Speaker 1: mention the Bucks comparison. 190 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:00,199 Speaker 5: And the Commanders are in the top half off of 191 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 5: the league in our Action Network luck rankings as well. 192 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 5: They are better yep, top half, so they're not quite 193 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 5: top ten, but they're in the top half of the 194 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 5: league in the luck rankings, which means things are breaking 195 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 5: their way to not only win some games as we've noticed, 196 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 5: but also cover in games Okay, Dubundo, what do you 197 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 5: got for us? 198 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:20,599 Speaker 3: First best bet? 199 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 8: Speaking of teams who have been getting lucky and covering, 200 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 8: Cincinnati Bengals have been the most profitable team in the 201 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,200 Speaker 8: NFL this season. They've been great against the spread. Since 202 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:30,960 Speaker 8: the first two weeks of the season, They've only failed 203 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 8: to cover one game. Credit to the Bengals, they've turned 204 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 8: it around. Luana Rumo might be the best defensive recording 205 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 8: in the NFL. It definitely has a case for it. 206 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 8: Joe Burrow's played better. But this is a good sell 207 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 8: high spot. And I know I said the exact same thing. 208 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 8: I wasn't on the podcast, but I said the exact 209 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 8: same thing last week in my preview when I bet 210 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 8: the Bucks plus three and a half in this same 211 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 8: spot at home against the Bengals. I like New England 212 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 8: as well. Plus three against Cincinnati. New England is better 213 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 8: than Tampa Bay. And let's go back and look at 214 00:10:57,679 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 8: I mean, if you could just look at that game 215 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 8: Tampa they completely dominated the yards for play, the total yards. 216 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 2: It was a failed fake. 217 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 8: Punt by Giovanni Bernard, a couple of fumbles and a 218 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 8: pick that gave the Bengals four scoring drives of less 219 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 8: than forty yards, and that's just kind of the stuff 220 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 8: that you just aren't going to get on a week 221 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 8: to week basis in the NFL. And I think they're 222 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 8: clearly overvalued here. Anything a field goal or better is 223 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 8: fine on New England. 224 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 2: New England gets. 225 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 8: Pressure their top three sack rate, top five pressure rate. 226 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 2: That's a major key against the Bengals. 227 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 8: If you're able to get to Burrow and force those sacks, 228 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 8: force them in the negative plays, it really keeps this 229 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 8: offense stuck in the mud. 230 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 2: And they are also very. 231 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,560 Speaker 8: Good at taking away explosives, which we know watching the 232 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 8: Bengals is what they've relied on so heavily with Jamar 233 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 8: Chase in the last year and a half. So I 234 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 8: think this is a clearly overrated Bengals team against a 235 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 8: desperate Patriots team that is pretty much in a must 236 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 8: win situation. And I know, you know, I'm not like 237 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 8: a big narrative guy, but coming off of last week's loss, 238 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 8: you'd expect a response from the Patriots. I won't guarantee it. 239 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:57,719 Speaker 8: I won't say, oh, you have to trust Belichick. I 240 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 8: don't really believe in that kind of stuff, But this 241 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 8: is the kitchen sing kind of game for New England, 242 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 8: and their offense has to get going at some point, 243 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 8: So I'm going to take the Patriots with the points. 244 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 3: It doesn't have to get going at some point. It 245 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 3: just might be that, Yeah, Brendan, you were there. 246 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, sorry, sorry about that. 247 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:16,319 Speaker 5: Awful And forget the final play the first quarter. They 248 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 5: can't line up on time and they're not on the 249 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:19,080 Speaker 5: same page. 250 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 8: So I don't they also got hosed. I mean, they 251 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 8: should have won that game. That wasn't a touchdown. So 252 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 8: there's all kinds of things that all kinds of things 253 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 8: they have that he was out of bounce, all kinds 254 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 8: of things that went wrong at the end of that game, 255 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 8: all the things going right for the Bengals. I do 256 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 8: wonder if it would have been two and a half 257 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 8: if those results had been flipped, which the box score 258 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 8: suggested they should have been. So yeah, I mean mac 259 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 8: joneses clearly regressed, but the Bengals don't get a ton 260 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 8: of pressure. The ring Trey Hedrison back. He's playing with 261 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 8: a broken wrist. They're saying he's going to manage it. 262 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:48,679 Speaker 8: I don't know how that works, but they have quietly 263 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 8: had a bunch of injuries pile up on the back 264 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 8: end of that defense right now too. So there's a 265 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 8: few things about the Bengals that I'm kind of selling 266 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 8: right now, and I'm looking to potentially get back in 267 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 8: on some Ravens if Lamar is able to come out 268 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 8: healthy at some point. 269 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean to be fair to you, why is 270 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 5: the number only three? That's what I keep looking at, 271 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 5: and I'm just like, Okay, maybe they believe in the 272 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,719 Speaker 5: Patriots to get right spot, but maybe it's more of 273 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 5: the Bengals. They like you said, they're nineteen and three 274 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 5: in the last twenty two against the spread. And for 275 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 5: New England, you mentioned you didn't want to go to 276 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 5: the Belichick angle, but I'll bring it up anyway. Bill 277 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 5: Belichick off a loss in his career against the spread 278 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 5: forty one eight and one that is either as an 279 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 5: underdog or under a touchdown favorite in his last twenty 280 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 5: years as a coach, So he's pretty good. 281 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 1: Spread. 282 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 8: Yeah. Yeah, I think the Bengals. Everybody wants to put 283 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 8: them up in that tier with the Bills and the Chiefs. 284 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 8: I would still say they're solidly in the next tier 285 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:49,719 Speaker 8: with you say, the Ravens of the Chargers more so 286 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 8: than I'm ready to put them amongst the Bills Chiefs 287 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 8: elite tier. And I know they won the AFC last year, 288 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 8: but I'm still holding a little bit of skepticism about 289 00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 8: this team. 290 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 2: Maybe it'll bite me, but I don't think it then. 291 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:02,720 Speaker 7: And like, if you bet the Bucks last week, you 292 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 7: should be beting the Patriots this week. Where I bet 293 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:09,839 Speaker 7: the Bucks last week and they were again, Yeah, they 294 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 7: were on my list for this and I just wanted 295 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 7: to be able to give out three and a half 296 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 7: and at this time it's three, which I totally get 297 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 7: it known is as I'm a Patriots fan, but I 298 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 7: am fully committed to tanking like and I'm not just 299 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 7: blowing smoke saying that like them winning is not good 300 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 7: for the future because they're going to get destroy in 301 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 7: the in the playoffs and they're just not good whether 302 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 7: I don't know if it's Mac or Patricia, but if 303 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 7: there is a spot that they can cover, and I 304 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 7: think if they cover, they're probably going to be winning. 305 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 1: It's just one of. 306 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 7: Those situation spots that I totally agree with, even though 307 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 7: I am not a believer in the team at all. 308 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 6: Agreed, let's go back to game. Yeah, Jacobe Myers revenge game. 309 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 6: But I'm actually going to be looking at cross conference 310 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 6: matchup in Kansas City. I'm gonna be taking the Seahawks 311 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 6: plus ten and I'm gonna hold down the four for Brandon. 312 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 6: He's not here today. I think I need a little 313 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 6: vacation to Seahawks Island. This is the third game in 314 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 6: a row the Chiefs have been favored by nine or more. 315 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 6: They didn't cover versus the Texans or the Broncos. Six 316 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 6: games this season with being favored by a touchdown or more. 317 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 6: They're two and four against the spread. One of those 318 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 6: games was against Bryce Perkins and the Rams, so sure 319 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 6: you can take that one, but I like to take 320 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 6: that one. 321 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw that one out. 322 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 6: Chiefs has a favorite of three and a half or 323 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 6: more with Patrick Mahomes twenty eight thirty five and one 324 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 6: against the spread. I just don't think with the Chiefs 325 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 6: defense like this that they should be that large of 326 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 6: a favorite. They're giving up thirty passing touchdowns this season. 327 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 6: That's dead last in the NFL. Sets up kind of 328 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 6: perfectly for some garbage time touchdowns as well from Gino 329 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 6: Smith in this passing offense. Maybe cut that lead to 330 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 6: nine or within a touchdown. And for what it's worth, 331 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 6: the Seahawks, they haven't gone all in six against the 332 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 6: spread and six straight games since all the way back 333 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 6: to two thousand. So I'm gonna ride that trend and 334 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 6: ensure that they go one and five in that stretch. 335 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 6: See how Alan closed, That's what the life raft has 336 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 6: already floated away. I'm just more or less trying to 337 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 6: annex it back from Brandon just for this week. 338 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 3: All right, I've got I don't have much to add. 339 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 5: I think it's always worthy of bringing up that ma 340 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 5: homestat on the when the number is three and a 341 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 5: half or more, that the team does not they don't 342 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 5: put teams away. 343 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 3: That's been evident. Luke, what do you got for a 344 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 3: second best bet? 345 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 1: All right? 346 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 7: So my second one is going to be Eagles, which 347 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 7: right now sits at plus five and a half going 348 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 7: to the Cowboys. 349 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: Now I totally see this. 350 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 7: I get the number move Like Jalen Hurts is out, 351 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 7: I was one of the like I bet the Cowboys 352 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 7: at three, just basically grabbing a number where this is 353 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 7: just a numbers bet. Where at five and a half, 354 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 7: six whatever it is, like that is automatic For me, 355 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 7: Gardner mins starting is the modern day Ryan Fitzpatrick. He 356 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 7: comes out the first game gun slinging like on fire, 357 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 7: and then progressively falls on his face for every start 358 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 7: after that. 359 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,920 Speaker 1: But he is good for his first start to go off. 360 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 7: And this totally feels like one of those last week 361 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 7: of the season games where one of the teams actually 362 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 7: get into the playoffs, the other one has nothing to 363 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 7: play for, and everyone that's the team getting into the 364 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 7: playoff because they think they're quote unquote more motivated. 365 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 1: Where like this has that feel to it. 366 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 7: Eagles defense is probably, if not the best unit on 367 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 7: the field, going against an Eagles offense that, like I think, 368 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 7: can just run the ball on this Cowboys defense that 369 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 7: is a shell of itself giving up thirty plus points 370 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 7: a week, like they are just so injured, And I 371 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 7: am a little bit skeptical that there are rumors that 372 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 7: Eagles might rest more starters and just wave the white 373 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,920 Speaker 7: flag with Hurts being out but them acting Dallas good 374 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 7: good Eric Kenyan pronounce his name, It kind of tells 375 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 7: me that they might. They aren't because why would they 376 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 7: activate them if they're gonna be resting people. There's really 377 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 7: no reason to unless they were at the deadline, which 378 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,359 Speaker 7: I'm not sure if they were, But this is really 379 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:18,399 Speaker 7: just a an elite Eagles team getting five and a 380 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 7: half six points with Gardner Minshew, I think being totally capable, 381 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,640 Speaker 7: especially in his first game. I just think that it's 382 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 7: just the motivation. I don't think is fair to assume 383 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 7: that they're just not going to try and throw in 384 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 7: the towel and I'll just take the five and a half. 385 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, does it make you does it make you feel 386 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 5: better that it's a game they don't need to have, like. 387 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:45,400 Speaker 3: Say this was a game that Eagles. 388 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 5: I suppose they still kind of technically need the game 389 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,919 Speaker 5: for to secure the one seed. But does it make 390 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 5: you feel better that Minshew has nothing nothing really to 391 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 5: lose here, Like if they're pulling guys, if they're resting guys, 392 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 5: that there's there's no there's a lack there's no no much. 393 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,439 Speaker 7: Pressure on I guess like there is concern of like 394 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 7: if someone gets injured, like there's probably less of a 395 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,719 Speaker 7: chance that he's gonna come back in or like if 396 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 7: he's good, like if he bangs his ankle and if 397 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 7: it was a huge game, he'd play again. They probably 398 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:16,640 Speaker 7: aren't going to play him in this game and they're 399 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 7: just can arrest him. But like, Minshew has everything to 400 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 7: play for, like and this guy is he's just like 401 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:26,119 Speaker 7: he has everything to play for. This offensive line can 402 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 7: totally dominate Dallas in the trenches where they can just 403 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:33,360 Speaker 7: run the ball one hundred times. And yeah, the mismatches 404 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 7: the Eagles offensive line against his Dallas defense, and Minshew 405 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:38,679 Speaker 7: really doesn't. 406 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 1: Like, I'm not worried at this number. 407 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 7: Where at three not a bat with Manshew, that'd be crazy, 408 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,360 Speaker 7: but like five and a half six signing out. 409 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:48,920 Speaker 5: They ad met at the end of last year in 410 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 5: Philadelphia and the final score is fifty one to twenty six. 411 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,439 Speaker 5: Eagles did make the playoffs, so to the Cowboys. That's 412 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 5: shaping up to be the same this year. Minshew in 413 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,560 Speaker 5: the game finished night teen of thirty three, one eighty six, 414 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 5: two touchdowns, a pick, was sacked three times. He ran 415 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 5: the ball five times for ten yards. That was how 416 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 5: it looked last year when he played for Jalen Hurts who. 417 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 3: Was banged up. Let's go to Dubundo second best bet. 418 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna stay in that game. 419 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 8: I think Luke made a good case for my over 420 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 8: there I think the Eagles offensive line has a massive 421 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 8: advantage against this Dallas undersized defensive front, like you can 422 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,880 Speaker 8: run on the Cowboys, and the Cowboys defense has regressed 423 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 8: quite a bit in the last few weeks, giving up 424 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 8: over five yards of play to the Texans, giving up 425 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 8: seven to the Jaguars, getting hit in the secondary with 426 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 8: injuries now, and getting exposed a little bit there on 427 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 8: a play to play basis. They're just not as elite 428 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:40,919 Speaker 8: as some of the other teams you think of when 429 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:42,719 Speaker 8: you think of the elite defenses, and they have been 430 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 8: a bit relyant on turnovers. So I think Minshew and 431 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 8: this offense kind of have success. I am a little 432 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,920 Speaker 8: worried about pulling everybody to but forty seven and a 433 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,200 Speaker 8: half I like the over. I actually bet the over 434 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,639 Speaker 8: fifty and a half on Sunday Sunday Night and Dallas 435 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 8: plus one and a half, So that shows you how 436 00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 8: far this market has come with all the injuries and 437 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 8: the new But I still like over forty seven and 438 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 8: a half here with Minshew in the game, because I 439 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 8: do think their offense will find a success on the 440 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 8: ground no matter who's in. They've been mauling people, whether 441 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 8: it's Gainwell Sanders or even Boston Scott getting going against 442 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 8: the Giants. So they've been able to run the ball 443 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 8: all year. It's been their calling card and they'll still 444 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,639 Speaker 8: be successful there. And I love this Dallas offense against 445 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 8: but I think is also an overrated defense in Philadelphia. 446 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 2: You mentioned the game last season. 447 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 8: Philadelphia arrested most of their defense in the second in 448 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 8: that game and Dak had one of the most efficient 449 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 8: games he's ever had. But this Dallas offense has played 450 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 8: like a juggernaut since Prescott came back from injury. He's 451 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 8: top three in the league and EPA per play, top 452 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 8: two in success rate, top five and rushing, top five 453 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 8: in passing. So they've been a dominant team. And you 454 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 8: can run on this Eagles defense absolutely, And if there's 455 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 8: a question mark about motivation where the team has maybe 456 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:52,399 Speaker 8: one foot out the door, you're going to see that 457 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:54,400 Speaker 8: on defense more than on offense, I think. And you'll 458 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 8: see the Eagles defense going vanilla because they don't want 459 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 8: to show anything to Dallas ahead of the play offs 460 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,479 Speaker 8: where there's a good chance they could play each other. 461 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 8: And they look like two of the three best teams 462 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 8: in the league. So I think there's gon be points 463 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 8: in this game, back and forth. I think Dallas will 464 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 8: ultimately probably win it. I think the spreads about right, 465 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,880 Speaker 8: but I love the over forty seven and a half 466 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 8: forty six and a half. 467 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 5: Does it depend on how the game starts, then Siriani 468 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 5: makes that call or does it? 469 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 3: Does he make that call pregame to sit other guys. 470 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,119 Speaker 2: That's a pregame call. We won't know it, you know, 471 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 2: maybe it'll leak, but like we're not going to know. 472 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 8: But I wouldn't I mean, you wouldn't be shocked to 473 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 8: see like a first half if they're and then if 474 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 8: they're not competitive, like they just pull. 475 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:33,879 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know. 476 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,159 Speaker 8: They're very smart front office, they're very you know, they 477 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 8: have their eyes on the Saints game next week because 478 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,400 Speaker 8: they can beat the Saints and give them worse draft pick, 479 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,879 Speaker 8: which gives them a better pick because they have the 480 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,120 Speaker 8: Saints first round pick, and they can they can clinch 481 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,640 Speaker 8: it next week. But like like Luke said, like Minshew's capable, 482 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,200 Speaker 8: He's more than capable as a backup. He's one of 483 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 8: the better, if not one of the best backups in 484 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 8: the league. So given their rushing advantages, I think they'll 485 00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 8: be able to just kind of be vanilla, stay in 486 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 8: this game, score twenty twenty four points and maybe lose, 487 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:03,440 Speaker 8: but they'll be in the mix. 488 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 5: Heay, that's a four to thirty start on Saturday afternoon. 489 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,120 Speaker 5: I think we were going to be moving to Christmas 490 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 5: Day here for our last slate of picks. We'll go 491 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 5: to Jill first for his final best bet. 492 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 1: Yeah. 493 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,479 Speaker 6: I'm going to be looking at the total for one 494 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 6: of these games and it's already steamed up. It might 495 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 6: steam up a little bit more by the time we 496 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 6: get to kick off. I'm going to be taking the 497 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 6: over fifty and a half between the Packers and Dolphins. 498 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 6: This pick is mainly about Miami full support on their 499 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 6: offense and a full fade of their defense. The offense 500 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 6: actually impressed me last week in Buffalo because the script 501 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,359 Speaker 6: was completely set up for a clunker in that snow 502 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,680 Speaker 6: globe game twenty nine points even though to attack of 503 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 6: Biola only completed fifty percent of his passes, and the 504 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,440 Speaker 6: explosive capability of Tyreek Hill and Jalen Wattle is really 505 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 6: why no Wonder is safe. And you can look at 506 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:51,879 Speaker 6: the home and the waste splits for passing for the 507 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 6: way Tua is, He's around sixty nine percent when he's 508 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 6: throwing at home. That drops to about sixty two percent 509 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 6: when he's on the road. As for the Packers, I 510 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,679 Speaker 6: think their offense is starting round into shape. I mean, 511 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,119 Speaker 6: this isn't the Texans coming to town. Ever since that 512 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,479 Speaker 6: Lions game where they only scored nine points. They averaged 513 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 6: twenty six points per game, and they're facing a defense 514 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,640 Speaker 6: that is bottom five and points elabor game doesn't really 515 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 6: have a pass defense to speak of. It's gonna be tight, 516 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 6: Like I'm projecting around fifty one to fifty two points. 517 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 6: But I think right now that there's potential that you 518 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 6: could see a thirty five to thirty two game concerns. 519 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 3: About the weather at all in Miami. 520 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 5: It's not quite the Arctic coal, but there's gonna be 521 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 5: some win and possibly some rain. 522 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 6: I mean, you would probably have seen that total start 523 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 6: to skew down if there was actually legit concerns about that, 524 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,399 Speaker 6: like you were seeing some totals this week, you know, 525 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,920 Speaker 6: thirty two and a half, thirty five, thirty six where 526 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 6: the actual Arctic bomb is expected to make an impact. 527 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 6: I can't imagine that wind and rain would be enough 528 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 6: to stop these two teams from putting up thirty points. 529 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,840 Speaker 3: Fair enough, Luke, what do you got final best bet? 530 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 7: So my final one is gonna be Dolphin length three 531 00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,879 Speaker 7: and a half hosting the Packers and start of the 532 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,879 Speaker 7: week Packers plus five and a half six was probably 533 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 7: one of the first ones that caught my eye, but 534 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 7: this has just come down too much for me. Where 535 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 7: the Dolphins, who have I believe the largest home in 536 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 7: road splits in the entire league offense and defense, are 537 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,440 Speaker 7: coming off of a three game road trip against the Niners, Chargers, 538 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 7: and Bills, which I can't think of a worse gauntlet 539 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 7: than that, where when they played the Bills last week, 540 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,639 Speaker 7: they ran the ball extremely successfully, extremely impressively with rahemos there, 541 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,400 Speaker 7: and now they're going to be hosting a Packers team 542 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 7: that can get gashed if they can run the ball, 543 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,399 Speaker 7: which I believe they totally can. That is going to 544 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 7: be setting up everything else for the receivers where I 545 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 7: can see them putting up thirty points easily on this 546 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 7: Packers team. And I totally get all of the Packers narratives. 547 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 7: I think you're about to hear a few of them. 548 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 1: But at three and a half. 549 00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 7: This is just too low for a team coming off 550 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:05,120 Speaker 7: of that awful road trip that have huge home away splits. 551 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 7: Basically a get right game that has the running game 552 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 7: bringing some momentum off of that, that's just going to 553 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 7: set up everything else to explode for me, where the 554 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:22,119 Speaker 7: Packers should have won by like one hundred points against 555 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 7: the Rams and they just didn't. And then they just 556 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,119 Speaker 7: get so conservative in the second half, and some of 557 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 7: the play calls that they make, and I hate questioning 558 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:30,879 Speaker 7: play calls because I'm not a coach and i haven't 559 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 7: been in the league for thirty years, but some of 560 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 7: them are just like what is going on? And they 561 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 7: it's just I just don't see the Packers being able 562 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 7: to keep up with the Dolphins in this game. So 563 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:47,119 Speaker 7: Dolphins minus three and a half was six, which I 564 00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,920 Speaker 7: wouldn't lay six, but at three and a half, yeah, 565 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 7: that's that's one for me. 566 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 5: Tua when he's at home twelve and four against the spread, 567 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:58,919 Speaker 5: seven nine and one against the spread in his career 568 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:03,120 Speaker 5: away from Seal Beach, those are the numbers. Luke said 569 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,880 Speaker 5: he had a feeling I do too, because Dubundo's making 570 00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,280 Speaker 5: gestures and he's got his best bet. 571 00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,119 Speaker 3: Now what what what is it? 572 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 2: I love I love the Packers. I'm all in on 573 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,640 Speaker 2: the Packers. Give me all the narratives. Look like three 574 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,240 Speaker 2: years I was the guy or one of the people. 575 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,720 Speaker 8: There was a few people like I know Stucky's hated 576 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,120 Speaker 8: the Packers for years too, Like we would just say 577 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:27,639 Speaker 8: that they're fraudulent and that they're going to lose in 578 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 8: the playoffs, and then Packers Twitter would get mad, like, 579 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:31,439 Speaker 8: I know, we have a bunch of Packers fans at 580 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,399 Speaker 8: this company, so like people you know, Matt Trevy, not 581 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,919 Speaker 8: the name names, but they would always say, you. 582 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 2: Know, get mad. I'm actually in on the Packers. 583 00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 8: Now, I'm buying low on Green Bay as a team 584 00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,320 Speaker 8: going forward with their chances in the potential playoff situation, 585 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:49,320 Speaker 8: this offense has quietly one gotten really healthy. They finally 586 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 8: have their full complimentive average two above average weapons available 587 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,680 Speaker 8: with with Jones and Dylan healthy and all the receivers 588 00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:58,399 Speaker 8: all on the field at the same time. It's not 589 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,119 Speaker 8: a great receiving corps, but it's ok. One with you 590 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,160 Speaker 8: enough for Rogers to work with at least, and Rogers 591 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,399 Speaker 8: seems to be playing better and looks healthier after he 592 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,159 Speaker 8: had that a couple of games where he was just 593 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 8: really really bad. I think his his finger injury was 594 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 8: kind of bothering him there. But he's played better and 595 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 8: I thought he looked really sharp against the Rams. They 596 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 8: were moving the ball up and down the field without 597 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,440 Speaker 8: a problem. They had some issues in the red zone. 598 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:22,920 Speaker 8: They had one bad turnover, there was a couple of 599 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 8: fluky things that kept that game closer than it was. 600 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,240 Speaker 8: But they're playing really well. And I think the green 601 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,119 Speaker 8: Bay defense, yes, they can't stop the run. Joe berry 602 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:32,639 Speaker 8: Like is the worst, maybe the worst defensive coordinator in 603 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,400 Speaker 8: the league. But they do take away the deep middle 604 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,360 Speaker 8: of the field. If you go by DVOA, they are 605 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 8: the third best defense at taking away the deep middle 606 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:41,440 Speaker 8: of the field in the entire league. 607 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:43,000 Speaker 2: And that is where Miami lives. 608 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 8: And that's what Staley did, That's what Demiko Ryans did, 609 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,200 Speaker 8: And if Green Bay can take that away, you make 610 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 8: to a look a lot more pedestrian. Tuga I Looa 611 00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,920 Speaker 8: has fifteen turnover whereth he plays this year. He's gotten 612 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 8: very fortunate to not have turned the ball over more 613 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 8: than he actually has a lot of dropped interceptions. 614 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 2: I'm selling this Dolphins team. 615 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 8: When they're a big underdog, their offense is explosive enough 616 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 8: to keep them in any game, like we saw that 617 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,280 Speaker 8: with Buffalo. But when I'm laying points, this defense, like 618 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,880 Speaker 8: Jill said, it's just really bad. And I think there's 619 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 8: holes that green Bay, who is top seven in offensive 620 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 8: dv AWA for the season, hard to believe seventh. I 621 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 8: think they're gonna get hot at the right time here, 622 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 8: and I think they have a good chance to make 623 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,760 Speaker 8: the playoffs if they win this game. And I'm also 624 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 8: long on them to potentially be a dark horse in 625 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 8: the NFC playoffs if they get there. 626 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:34,240 Speaker 5: So back to the luck rankings discussion, You've got the Packers, 627 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 5: who are towards the bottom of the rankings, which means 628 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,920 Speaker 5: they've been unlucky, and the Dolphins, who have been one 629 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,200 Speaker 5: more of the lucky teams this season. 630 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 8: So I mean, it's funny because for years Green Bay 631 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 8: was like the luckiest team in the league. They won 632 00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 8: every one score game, they got every bounce, They win 633 00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 8: thirteen games even though their numbers said they should win ten. 634 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 8: And this year it's gone the complete opposite direction, and 635 00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,240 Speaker 8: everybody's decided that they just suck. I really don't think 636 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 8: that's the case, but I think it's also. 637 00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,840 Speaker 7: But I feel like the perception, which I don't even 638 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 7: know what the betting spits are, I'm sure Brennan you 639 00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 7: have it, but like the perception of green Bay before 640 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 7: the bye was like they are awful, they are just 641 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,320 Speaker 7: they're not making the playoffs. And then after the Rams game, 642 00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 7: like now everyone it does feel like the masses are 643 00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 7: starting to catch on to them and starting to love 644 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,480 Speaker 7: them again, which isn't hard with Aaron Rodgers and after 645 00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:28,200 Speaker 7: those three road games, Like, I don't think Dolphins stock 646 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 7: has been this low than it is at the current moment, 647 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 7: where like no one believes in the Dolphins at this time. 648 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 8: They did get bullied twice, which like I think went 649 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 8: into it went into the price of like I thought 650 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,520 Speaker 8: they were undervalued just last week in Buffalo. 651 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:44,440 Speaker 2: But yeah, I think that's a fair point. 652 00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 8: But I don't know that a win against the Rams 653 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,240 Speaker 8: has everybody believing in green Bay again, like they do 654 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 8: probably need to win out to get in the playoffs. Yes, 655 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,719 Speaker 8: so it's like a long shot, but I like them 656 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 8: Next week too. 657 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 6: Yeah, Miami, Minnesota and Detroit to close the season for 658 00:30:58,360 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 6: the Packers. 659 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 3: Of the money. 660 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 5: Sixty five percent of the tickets are on green Bay, 661 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 5: and I'm starting to figure out what Look's doing here, 662 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 5: maybe because he sees the whole company outside of him. 663 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:14,160 Speaker 3: Is on Green Bay and he is not the action. 664 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,400 Speaker 3: Not signing up for this star. 665 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 1: It's a thing. 666 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 2: It's not a thing. You just remember when we all lose. 667 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 1: No, that's fair. 668 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 3: All Dabundo didn't want to name names. 669 00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:29,920 Speaker 5: I will Stucky, Raybon, Nick Martin, Nick Giffen, Millman, de Lera, Dubundo, 670 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,080 Speaker 5: Brandon Anderson all on green Bay. 671 00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually took. 672 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 8: I took plus six before the packers even kicked Monday. 673 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:37,680 Speaker 8: They were offering a whitch head like before. 674 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 3: The which he acknowledged. Luke acknowledged that he's cool with that. 675 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,160 Speaker 2: But he just thinks it's getting chi and I put 676 00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:42,880 Speaker 2: I put in the thing. 677 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 8: Anything over three and a half four is fine, and 678 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,400 Speaker 8: I wouldn't at three. I wouldn't bet it anymore. 679 00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,640 Speaker 7: The like the money percentages, Like the reason there's so 680 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 7: much flawed is because like we don't know when the 681 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 7: money's coming in. We're like eighty eight percent of the money. 682 00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 7: Like I would I would make a very strong assumption 683 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:02,200 Speaker 7: that that was on the six is the fives the format. 684 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,120 Speaker 8: Anybody who's betting early in the week is getting better 685 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 8: numbers and then like you have your Sunday better who come. 686 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 1: In fair enough good points, which is probably why the public. 687 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,520 Speaker 7: We're seeing that the public is on the Packers because 688 00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 7: I totally get the Packers at the numbers earlier this week. 689 00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,320 Speaker 7: Yeah easy, But now it's at three and a half. 690 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 7: It will be very interesting to see what those splits 691 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 7: become by Sunday. 692 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:28,880 Speaker 5: Okay, before we wrap up the show, let's take a 693 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:33,440 Speaker 5: quick look at next week's lines for a week seven seventeen, 694 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 5: right seventeen, Week seventeen coming our way next, so two 695 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:41,480 Speaker 5: weeks to go in the regular season. We do this segments, folks, 696 00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 5: to look ahead line to see if we like numbers 697 00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:47,280 Speaker 5: now before they adjust after Sunday and Dubundo wants to 698 00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 5: take a stab at it. We usually go to Brandon 699 00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,320 Speaker 5: Anderson on this, but you're going to go right back 700 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,120 Speaker 5: to the Packers, who, as you acknowledged, they are a 701 00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:57,440 Speaker 5: favorite next week, a short favorite against the Minnesota Vikings. 702 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 8: Yeah, that Minnesota team is something else, coming back thirty 703 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,000 Speaker 8: three nothing against my Colts. Yeah, I mean I think 704 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 8: that green Bay is a clearly better team the Minnesota. 705 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 8: They've been a much better offense. Minnesota's run game has 706 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 8: been their biggest weakness this year. Dovin Cook is on 707 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,480 Speaker 8: washed watch. He has just not been the same back. 708 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 8: And if you're not able to run on this Minnesota, 709 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,280 Speaker 8: this Green Bay team, it's much harder to move the ball. Also, 710 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,400 Speaker 8: the motivational angle, I think there's a chance that Minnesota, well, 711 00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:25,800 Speaker 8: Minnesota will have already clenched and they're basically just jocking 712 00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 8: with San Fran for two and three. 713 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,480 Speaker 2: There's no real chance for them to get up to 714 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:30,080 Speaker 2: the one seed. 715 00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:34,040 Speaker 8: So we could see, like you know, Minnesota, anybody who's 716 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,240 Speaker 8: resting or banged up, could could be held out of 717 00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 8: this game with Minnesota starting to kind of focus on 718 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,200 Speaker 8: the playoffs. And really the main reason I'm giving out 719 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:42,600 Speaker 8: green Bay now is because it's sitting at two and 720 00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 8: a half. I think there's a good chance that it 721 00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 8: hits three three and a half by next week. If 722 00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 8: you know, green Bay were to perform well this weekend, 723 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:54,840 Speaker 8: which I'm hoping for, but the Packers getting that under 724 00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,560 Speaker 8: a field goal, I think is a valuable situation right now. 725 00:33:58,000 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 8: So I like the Packers minus two and a half 726 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 8: and this morning. 727 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,440 Speaker 1: And that makes total sense. 728 00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 7: I mean, no one catches more heat than the Packers, 729 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,720 Speaker 7: like their fan base travels the best. 730 00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:09,040 Speaker 1: For a reason. 731 00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,399 Speaker 7: And what if the Packers win on Sunday, like coof 732 00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:15,600 Speaker 7: this thing is going to get destroyed because everyone is 733 00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:16,640 Speaker 7: gonna be back on board. 734 00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:18,239 Speaker 8: And if it goes to one and a half two, 735 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,600 Speaker 8: because you know something, they underperform or whatever, they're not 736 00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:22,720 Speaker 8: going to be out of the playoffs. 737 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:24,439 Speaker 2: Green Bay will still be mathematically alive. 738 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:28,279 Speaker 8: I'm pretty sure. Must Washington. Also, it must Washington Seattle win, 739 00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 8: which I can't see either. So there's green Bays likely 740 00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:34,239 Speaker 8: to still be in the playoff picture. Even if they lose, 741 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:35,680 Speaker 8: they still could sneak in an eight and nine, so 742 00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,960 Speaker 8: they're still gonna be playing for everything. And if it's two, 743 00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:40,680 Speaker 8: I'm not that worried about it, but three being the 744 00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:41,960 Speaker 8: key number that it is, I want to get the 745 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:42,800 Speaker 8: two and a half while. 746 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:43,000 Speaker 1: I still can. 747 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,760 Speaker 7: And if you believe it's rigged, if you believe everything 748 00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 7: is rigged, like the Packers lines game last week of 749 00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:54,040 Speaker 7: the season, win I guess in the playoffs would. 750 00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,760 Speaker 1: Get a lot of viewership, probably get flexed. 751 00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,800 Speaker 8: I mean, yeah, well, Jags Titans might have something to 752 00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:02,320 Speaker 8: say about that. 753 00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,160 Speaker 3: Well, there's no, there's no night games. Last week of 754 00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 3: the year they all played. 755 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,279 Speaker 2: No, no, they did. They do one night game every year, don't. 756 00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,920 Speaker 8: They don't think so because last year was last year 757 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,560 Speaker 8: was the tie? Remember the Oh wait, no, I'm sorry, 758 00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:18,160 Speaker 8: no Monday, no Monday night game. They flex They flexed 759 00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:19,680 Speaker 8: one game to Sunday night Thursday. 760 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,839 Speaker 3: Right, No Monday night, no Thursday night. That's it my fault. 761 00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:26,720 Speaker 8: They'll put They'll put either Jags, Titans or Packers Lions. 762 00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:31,000 Speaker 8: Probably not Packers Lions because there'll be other games maybe 763 00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,879 Speaker 8: I think, I think for the season, but that game 764 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:36,080 Speaker 8: is still going to decide the division. 765 00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,960 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, but right, So, if you believe everything 766 00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:42,960 Speaker 7: is rigged, which is not for this podcast, would you 767 00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,680 Speaker 7: rather have a playoff playing game being Packers Lions or 768 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:49,640 Speaker 7: Jags malik loss. 769 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:50,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true. 770 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:52,719 Speaker 8: I mean, of course the Lions would do better. Rings 771 00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,799 Speaker 8: but there's other teams is the problem. But we'll say, right, 772 00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:55,720 Speaker 8: it'll be interesting. 773 00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,920 Speaker 2: I'm just surprising playoffs. 774 00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,680 Speaker 1: This is supporting. I'm supporting your Packers by the way, 775 00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:03,200 Speaker 1: on how they need to win, right. 776 00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, seventy five FC is still out there. If you're 777 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:07,759 Speaker 2: really crazy. 778 00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,520 Speaker 5: All right, I think that's gonna do well. Hold on 779 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:11,320 Speaker 5: real quick, last thing on this look ahead. 780 00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:11,840 Speaker 3: What happened? 781 00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,759 Speaker 5: What has to happen from Minnesota Giants? Then, like, what 782 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:16,760 Speaker 5: if Minnesota blows doors? 783 00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,319 Speaker 8: Minnesota has not blown doors on anybody else season. I'd 784 00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,800 Speaker 8: be very surprised if that happens. But again, it's just 785 00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:24,520 Speaker 8: asymmetric risk. Right, it's two and a half. If it 786 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:26,759 Speaker 8: goes to two, okay, whatever, But if it goes at 787 00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,120 Speaker 8: three three and a half, that's a big value jump 788 00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:29,839 Speaker 8: there in the bet. 789 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,400 Speaker 3: All right, here we go recapping the picks for Week sixteen. 790 00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:36,279 Speaker 3: We miss you, Brandon, but here we go. Here's what 791 00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:36,640 Speaker 3: we got. 792 00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 5: Jill Gallant is on Bears plus eight and a half, 793 00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:45,000 Speaker 5: Seattle plus ten and the Green Bay Miami Christmas Day 794 00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,759 Speaker 5: game over fifty and a half. Luke is on San 795 00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:51,440 Speaker 5: fram minus seven, Eagles plus five and a half and 796 00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,800 Speaker 5: the Dolphins minus three and a half. Du Bundo on 797 00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:59,120 Speaker 5: the Patriots plus three Philly in Dallas over forty seven. 798 00:36:58,960 --> 00:36:59,319 Speaker 3: And a half. 799 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:01,560 Speaker 5: He's so often that he played it earlier in the week. 800 00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:05,120 Speaker 5: With the total north of fifty and he's going against Luke. 801 00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:08,840 Speaker 5: He's got the Packers at plus three and a half. Gents, 802 00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,759 Speaker 5: Merry Christmas, enjoy the football, Thanks for making the time, 803 00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,480 Speaker 5: and we look forward to the recap show which is 804 00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,760 Speaker 5: next on the Action Network podcast. That was your NFL 805 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:23,560 Speaker 5: Week sixteen Best Bets episode, presented by FanDuel. Thanks to Jill, 806 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,200 Speaker 5: Luke and Anthony. Best of luck, everybody, have a great weekend. 807 00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:30,080 Speaker 5: Brendan glas Sheen signing off and again happy holidays here 808 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:31,000 Speaker 5: from Action Network. 809 00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:50,000 Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 810 00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,240 Speaker 8: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 811 00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:56,200 Speaker 8: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 812 00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:57,040 Speaker 8: hundred Gambler