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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: the King of sports Books.

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Speaker 3: We're here for.

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Speaker 1: Another UFC betting preview UFC Vegas eighty nine. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Brendan glas Sheen, joined by the usual crew this week, Seanzrello,

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward. It's time to get to best bets.

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Speaker 3: We'll go to the main event.

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Speaker 1: The guys have their fight of the night, their targeting,

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Speaker 1: favorite underdogs and props, and then a best bet final bet.

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Speaker 1: We'll figure that out once we get to the end

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Speaker 1: of the show. Before we get started, the quick heads up.

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Speaker 1: The great state of North Carolina officially launched sports betting

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Speaker 1: last week, so if you're in the tar Hill State,

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Speaker 1: take advantage of the best sign up offers across every

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Speaker 1: sports book. You can find a link to every one

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Speaker 1: of those offers in the description of this episode. All

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Speaker 1: the North Carolina offers all in one place. Just check

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Speaker 1: out the link in the episode description. Audio of course,

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Speaker 1: on wherever you listen to your podcast, and we live

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Speaker 1: on the Action not live, but we have the Action

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Speaker 1: Network YouTube channel as well for a video version of

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Speaker 1: the podcast, please subscribe and like the video. All right, gents,

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Speaker 1: let's dive in the main event featuring Amanda Heabs and Rose.

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Speaker 1: Na'm a unis what do we like this week? Soarrola,

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Speaker 1: how do you break down the fight and how would you.

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Speaker 4: Like to bett Billy and I both on the underdog

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Speaker 4: side of this matchup, I think we would agree that

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Speaker 4: he Bus has the submission or dominant control grappling upside

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Speaker 4: and a plus money, and across a twenty five minute fight,

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Speaker 4: I think she does get Rose down at some point,

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Speaker 4: either threatens the submission or holds control for extended time.

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Speaker 4: Rose does not a good takedown event sixty percent across

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Speaker 4: her UFC career, Senior get put on her back, not

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Speaker 4: only put her in a rack, though, but held there

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Speaker 4: for long stretching. She tends to close her guard and

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Speaker 4: she's comfortable kind of waiting out the round on her back.

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Speaker 4: She's the much better striker in this matchup technically, but

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Speaker 4: in terms of volume, I think Rebos can actually pull

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Speaker 4: ahead over the course of twenty five minutes. The main

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Speaker 4: concern on the Hebaut side is Cardi and the fact

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Speaker 4: that she hasn't tested it across twenty five minutes before.

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Speaker 3: These are two former.

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Speaker 4: Strawweights now fighting up at one twenty five at flyweight.

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Speaker 4: Na Mahun has never had the best cardio at one

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Speaker 4: point fifteen, maybe fighting at one twenty five now her

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Speaker 4: gas tank is a little bit better, but her output

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Speaker 4: and her effectiveness tends to wane in the later rounds

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Speaker 4: of fights. She's proven that across multiple twenty five minute fights.

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Speaker 4: Now he must just tychically build it later on in

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Speaker 4: her fights and getting better in the third round and

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Speaker 4: adding on volume in the third round and building so

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Speaker 4: while she never has been twenty five minutes in her career,

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Speaker 4: the pace that she's keeping, the momentum that she has

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Speaker 4: at the ENERR fights, leads me to believe that she

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Speaker 4: is going to have pretty so fish and cardio to

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Speaker 4: get through a twenty five minute fight. So normally I'm

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Speaker 4: automatically targeting against these fighters who have no main event experience,

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Speaker 4: no five round experience in their first MANDI event, especially

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Speaker 4: when they're facing fighter in another main event that has

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Speaker 4: five round experience. But I think given the cardio dynamics

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Speaker 4: we've seen for both fighters in the past, at worst,

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Speaker 4: I think this cardio is equal and if not, would

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Speaker 4: favor he Boss in that department. So more grappling upside,

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Speaker 4: potentially more volume across a twenty five minute fight, and

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Speaker 4: then maybe better cardio. Two have to take Keybus here

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Speaker 4: at plus one ninety. I think there's a chance that

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Speaker 4: Rose can knock her out early, catch her.

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Speaker 3: She's the much better boxer.

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Speaker 4: She hits harder, But I think he Us has, as

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Speaker 4: I said, all the grappling upside, and I guess my

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Speaker 4: other concern too is just maybe the mental state of Hebas.

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Speaker 3: She's talked about wanting.

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Speaker 4: To fight for a BMF title in the future, and

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Speaker 4: you don't fight for a BMF title trying to control

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Speaker 4: people on the ground or submit them. You fight for

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Speaker 4: a BMF title slugging it out on the feet, and

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Speaker 4: that's not really the type of fighter she is. She

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Speaker 4: doesn't have huge power in her hands. She's not like

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Speaker 4: this electric boxer, you know, electric combination puncher, but she

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Speaker 4: does put out a lot of volume, and I think

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Speaker 4: that could put her head on the scorecards. This one

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Speaker 4: doesn't reach a decision, so Billy, I'm sure you have

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Speaker 4: pretty similar thoughts though with regards to grappling specifically.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the grappling's obviously huge. You know, I'm always a

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Speaker 5: sucker for the double black belt. You got the judo

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Speaker 5: and jiu JITs who black belt been training like since

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Speaker 5: she was in diapers or whatever with her dad's who's

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Speaker 5: fairly well known grappler himself. But the other thing, and

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Speaker 5: it's not even really so much of a technical analysis

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Speaker 5: or whatever because you nailed that a Zerillo, But I

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Speaker 5: don't know that Rose wants to be doing this anymore.

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Speaker 5: Like since that, you know, fight against Wiley Asparzo where

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Speaker 5: she kind of didn't really engage and could have gone

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Speaker 5: her way, but nothing really happened, so you know, can't

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Speaker 5: be mad about that. Comes back took like a year

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Speaker 5: and a half off, didn't look super engaged against Fiora better.

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Speaker 5: You know, she was trying out there, but it still

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Speaker 5: didn't seem like she wasn't the thug rows of old

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Speaker 5: where she was really out here aggressively hunting stuff. She's

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Speaker 5: kind of just point fighting, dancing around doing her thing

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Speaker 5: can be kind of effective, kind of not. And then

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Speaker 5: on the other side, he was in her last fight,

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Speaker 5: we saw her like really open up with some striking

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Speaker 5: for the first time. In her career. You know Lanza

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Speaker 5: spinning wheelkick, follows up on the ground, picks up her

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Speaker 5: first UFC knockout, So you know, you nailed a lot

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Speaker 5: of the technical stuff. I don't worry too much about

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Speaker 5: cardio with these lighter weight classes, just because even when

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Speaker 5: they do get tired, their version of being tired is

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Speaker 5: nowhere near like you know, two hundred and sixty five

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Speaker 5: pound men being tired. It's it's still you know, they

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Speaker 5: can still operate a little bit. So I'm not super

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Speaker 5: worried about that. Hebus's three losses in the UFC, two

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Speaker 5: of them were at flyweight. I know this is at flyweight,

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Speaker 5: so in theory that seems like a bad thing. But

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Speaker 5: Rose isn't a big flyweight by any stretch, you know,

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Speaker 5: former strawweight herself, So I think not being so much

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Speaker 5: smaller than our opponent helps Hebus here. Hebus actually has

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Speaker 5: an inch or so in reach, which not a huge deal,

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Speaker 5: but she's not massively undersized like she sometimes is. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: I'm kind of surprised at the price for getting it

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Speaker 5: was plus two h five or something on Sunday or Monday.

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Speaker 5: I just the technical stuff matters. But if you don't

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Speaker 5: want to be here, and you don't want to be

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Speaker 5: fighting anymore. Trevor Whitman's not going to be in her

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Speaker 5: corner again, which worries me for Rose. There's just so

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Speaker 5: much of that, outside of the cage stuff that I

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Speaker 5: can't bet on Rose, and I think it's a perfect

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Speaker 5: fate opportunity. This could be the downfall. I know they're

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Speaker 5: about the same age, but we might have seen the

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Speaker 5: best of her already, and she's if you don't have

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Speaker 5: it anymore, you don't have it, and there's nothing wrong

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Speaker 5: with that, but obviously not someone we want to bet

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Speaker 5: on in those circumstances.

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Speaker 3: Hebus is thirty rows thirty one.

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Speaker 1: Is there a situation where either of you might come

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Speaker 1: in on Hebus if it doesn't go well early, or

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Speaker 1: do I counter and say pre fight if the price

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Speaker 1: comes down on the money line for Hebus? Is there

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Speaker 1: an angle for the other side, possibly just for the audience,

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Speaker 1: Given the.

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Speaker 4: Fact that she's never been twenty five minutes, It is

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Speaker 4: difficult to justify the live bet because, as I said.

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Speaker 3: We're sort of projecting her.

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Speaker 4: Cardio based on how she's doing at the end of

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Speaker 4: her fifteen minute fights across at twenty five minute fight,

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Speaker 4: so I think it's fifty to fifty. I think the

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Speaker 4: scenario in which I bet hebus is she loses like

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Speaker 4: the first four minutes a round one striking, and then

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Speaker 4: she mixes it up and goes for a takedown at

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Speaker 4: the end of the round, and you're like, Okay, she

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Speaker 4: has that in her back pocket.

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Speaker 3: She can hit the takedown when she wants.

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Speaker 4: It, So yeah, I think if her price blows out

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Speaker 4: a limit after round one, raft around two. But she's

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Speaker 4: shown that she can hit a takedown and control Rose

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Speaker 4: for a little bit, but that doesn't necessarily win her

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Speaker 4: that specific round. I think that's where I'd want to enter,

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Speaker 4: is showing proving that she can get the fight to

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Speaker 4: the ground, but not necessarily winning the fight.

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Speaker 3: To that one.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to the fight of the night. We've

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Speaker 1: got Talbot and Simon the matchup and the bantamweight. Taking

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Speaker 1: a look at the price right now. Over at bet

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Speaker 1: MGM you can find Cameron's about a slight dog and

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Speaker 1: yet Talbot is the favorite. Same question, how do we

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Speaker 1: assess the fight generally speaking?

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Speaker 3: Zerillo?

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Speaker 1: And then what angle.

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Speaker 3: Might you want to take to bet this fight?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: As a banger.

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Speaker 4: This is very similar, you know, in terms of trajectory

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Speaker 4: of these prospects for the Christian Rodriguez and Isaac Dulgarian

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Speaker 4: fight last week. I love these type of fights. I

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Speaker 4: love seeing the UFC pair offf some of their top

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Speaker 4: prospects and letting them go out it. Peyton Talbot getting

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Speaker 4: a lot of Sean O'Malley comparisons just because of his size,

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Speaker 4: the division, the length of hy Zeke throws a ton

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Speaker 4: of volume. He is the taller and longer fighter in

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Speaker 4: this matchup two inches taller, three inches longer. But I

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Speaker 4: think Saman is the more proven prospect, and I think

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Speaker 4: Saman also has the grappling upside in this fight. I

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Speaker 4: don't think he's going to necessarily make use of it

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Speaker 4: or even successfully be able to deploy it. I don't

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Speaker 4: think he's going to be able to control Talbot for

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Speaker 4: long stretches, but I do think there's a chance to

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Speaker 4: Talbot because when Talbat gets up, he tends to give

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Speaker 4: up his back. So I think there's a chance that

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Speaker 4: Salmon can lock in a body triangle, win around that way,

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Speaker 4: and then win another fifty to fifty round and eventually

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Speaker 4: pull out the fight. My either concern at Talbot two,

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Speaker 4: even though he is taller and longer, I don't think

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Speaker 4: he makes as much use of his length as a

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Speaker 4: guy with that size Legomalley, who you'd expect him to.

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Speaker 4: He actually prefers the box of the pocket be much

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Speaker 4: closer to his opponents, and that tends to favor Samon.

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Speaker 4: You know, the shorter fighter if they're going to be

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Speaker 4: fighting in closer. So I think this is going to

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Speaker 4: be really competitive. I think it's going to be really close.

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Speaker 4: I think it's going to be fought at the pace

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Speaker 4: where you'd expect one of them to get finished. I

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Speaker 4: think it's to be super high paced. But I think

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Speaker 4: they're both super durable and ultimately goes to a close

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Speaker 4: and competitive decision. So I lean to Saman. I lean

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Speaker 4: to the over. I'm probably not betting this fight. There

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Speaker 4: seems to be one of these like flag planting fights

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Speaker 4: every week where everybody just wants to be on one

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Speaker 4: side or the other and you know, choose their fighter.

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Speaker 4: I don't really feel a need to jump in on

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Speaker 4: those fights because I think oftentimes people are projecting, you know,

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Speaker 4: their opinions onto the fighter. Where I think the line

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Speaker 4: is probably about right here ultimately given the size advantage.

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Speaker 4: But it's this is just going to be a war,

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Speaker 4: and I probably don't want any money on it. Maybe

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Speaker 4: either fighter by decision would be the way I would

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Speaker 4: poke it, just to have, you know, a nice juicy

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Speaker 4: loust money prop for one of them. Do I expect

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Speaker 4: to ultimately win by decision, but likely a pass for me.

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Speaker 4: I think Billy is more of a preference on a

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Speaker 4: side though.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, sorry, no, I'm definitely taking Peyton Talbot here. There's

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Speaker 5: a couple of things. He's somehow taller and longer, but

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Speaker 5: also the bigger, stronger fighter if you look at them

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Speaker 5: physic wise, I'm not sure how Talbot makes one thirty five,

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Speaker 5: much like Christian Rodriguez, who we just saw beat Simon

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Speaker 5: while missing weight and then jump up to one forty five.

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Speaker 5: I don't know how long for bantamweight Peyton Talbot is

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Speaker 5: it Just if you look at him, it doesn't look

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Speaker 5: like this should work. The big thing I saw technically

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Speaker 5: is he does a really good job fighting orthodox against lefties,

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Speaker 5: and we saw that in his UFC debut. He's always

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Speaker 5: winning the front foot battle. He's not trying to jab

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Speaker 5: you into that shorthand the way a lot of guys do.

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Speaker 5: He's leading his attacks with his rear hand and his

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Speaker 5: rear kicks. He's got really good kicks. I see your

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Speaker 5: point about he does get in too close and doesn't

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Speaker 5: use the range as well, but he has really good

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Speaker 5: knees and elbows in there, so he kind of at

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Speaker 5: least counteracts that. And then on the grappling side, when

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Speaker 5: Talbot gets control, he's prioritizing position, looking to land damage

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Speaker 5: and then he'll go for some stuff. Simon, if you

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Speaker 5: watch him grapple, he's got some takedowns in his arsenal,

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Speaker 5: but he'll kind of take some bad risk looking for

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Speaker 5: submissions where if it doesn't work out, then he gives

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Speaker 5: up the position. And that's cool against lower level competition.

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Speaker 5: Once you start fighting these tough guys who aren't who

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Speaker 5: you aren't going to hit the sub on, you don't

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Speaker 5: get that all of a sudden you're in a bad spot.

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Speaker 5: And I know that in theory, Simon has more UFC

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Speaker 5: or not in theory, he has more UFC experience. In theory,

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Speaker 5: he's more tested. If you look at these guys records,

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Speaker 5: I don't know how true that is. The guys that

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Speaker 5: Simon beat are two and five in the UFC. Both

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Speaker 5: of those wins were split decisions by man of Martinez,

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Speaker 5: so like he could have easily fought three guys without

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Speaker 5: UFC wins until Christian Rodriguez, who beat him Peyton Talbot.

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Speaker 5: The only fight of his career against someone with the

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Speaker 5: overall losing record was his debut. He fought a fellow

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Speaker 5: debut tante, and they've given him tough fights this whole time,

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Speaker 5: Nick Aguire, you know, not the toughest UFC debut, but

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Speaker 5: like in the broad scheme of things, he's been tested

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Speaker 5: a little bit despite less UFC fights. He's a little

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Speaker 5: bit older, a little bit more polished. I don't love

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Speaker 5: the price at minus one fifty or so, but I

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Speaker 5: kind of don't see how Simon gets this one done.

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Speaker 5: I don't think he gets the takedowns. You know, Talbot's

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Speaker 5: defended like ninety percent of the takedowns he's seen across

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Speaker 5: Contender series and his UFC debut. Don't love that he

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Speaker 5: gave up all that control time in round one, but

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Speaker 5: he's still getting better. And that's like the guy who

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Speaker 5: really wanted to grapple, where Simon kind of uses grappling

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Speaker 5: as a as a backup plan, so I'm not as

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Speaker 5: worried about that. I think this ends up mostly being

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Speaker 5: a striking match. He got one guy hits a little

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Speaker 5: bit harder, a little bit more creative, and then he's

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Speaker 5: fighting the lefty Simon and he's just done a really

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Speaker 5: good job in that exchange. So those are the technical

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Speaker 5: reasons for me. And then outside of that, I've always

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Speaker 5: felt like I bet Simon a lot. It kind of

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Speaker 5: felt like he kept getting away with stuff early in

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Speaker 5: his career, like he was like, oh, that didn't look good,

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Speaker 5: but he figured out how to get a win, or

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Speaker 5: you know, he slipped up or gets a majority decision

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Speaker 5: against Manon Martinez, and I feel like that shoes kind

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Speaker 5: of dropped, or maybe he's not the prospect we think

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Speaker 5: he was, and this is going to have Talbot kind

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Speaker 5: of take his place in that prospect packing order.

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Speaker 1: And Talbot does have the three and a half inch

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Speaker 1: reach advantage. And then is Rillo noted the height differential

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Speaker 1: five to ten v five eight Talbot, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: He's gonna be a weight class bigger, and I think

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Speaker 4: the power differential that I think that's what ultimately pulls

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Speaker 4: my head, you know, closing competitive decision, but he's going

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Speaker 4: to land the harder shots and judge just scoring damage now,

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Speaker 4: So I think, just like her, he's landing the biggest

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Speaker 4: punch of each round. And you know that a query

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Speaker 4: fight that's really sticking with a lot of people because

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Speaker 4: Hobbit lost that round when unanimously completely control the moving ground,

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Speaker 4: the Salmon's not going to control him for that long

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Speaker 4: a period of time. I think any grappling it changes

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Speaker 4: here are gonna be super scrambling and then they're going

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Speaker 4: to return toat and go back to striking. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: it's just it's one of those fights where like I

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Speaker 4: lean to the dog because I expect it to go over,

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Speaker 4: I expect both guys to land one hundred plus strikes

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Speaker 4: and then you're kind of banking on the judges, like

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Speaker 4: leaning your way. But ultimately Talbot has the power advantage,

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Speaker 4: so they probably go his his direction in terms of

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Speaker 4: damage and.

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Speaker 5: The scrambling you mentioned. That's kind of my point about

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Speaker 5: how Simon likes to grapple, and I think you see

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Speaker 5: this a lot in guys. Honestly, a striking is kind

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Speaker 5: of a similar dynamic where they do kind of gimmicky,

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Speaker 5: flashy stuff and against lower level competition where you're just

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Speaker 5: a better athlete and better trained and clearly better. That

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Speaker 5: stuff's great. You know, he's knocking people out with spinning backfist,

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Speaker 5: he's diving for weird submissions and winning that position. But

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Speaker 5: now you're in like a dog fight against another guy

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Speaker 5: who's not gonna let you get him with that stuff.

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Speaker 5: It's just not a great way to win minutes from

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Speaker 5: Simon like he's gonna have. I put I did the

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Speaker 5: breakdown of this one in a full article, and I said,

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Speaker 5: I think Simon's got the potential for some really big

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Speaker 5: moments here and there, but he's not a guy who's

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Speaker 5: gonna consistently, like be winning at any given point in

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Speaker 5: the fight. And it is striking and grappling are both

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Speaker 5: similar in that regards, and that's a great way to

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Speaker 5: crush lower level competition and put together highlight reel. Not

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Speaker 5: a great way to fight against other, you know, similarly

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Speaker 5: talented fighters.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Salmon's a better matchup for Salmon is

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Speaker 4: not a guy who throws a hundred strikes, like, not

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Speaker 4: a guy who throws a volume, you know, more of

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Speaker 4: a one strike power puncher where he can not get

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Speaker 4: knocked out because he's durable. But yeah, fighting fighting a

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Speaker 4: guy who's like employing a similar volume is you?

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Speaker 3: That probably goes Samon's as play.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So for Sorillo this is more of a fight.

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Speaker 1: He's just curious to watch. You got two young bucks

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Speaker 1: going out at twenty five and twenty three. Uh, Talbot

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Speaker 1: and Salmon going head to head in the bantamweight. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's go to a favorite underdog for the weekend. No,

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Speaker 1: do we have a consensus underdog this week?

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Speaker 3: We've won?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that would be depending on what you want to

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Speaker 4: call him or the site that you're looking at. The

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Speaker 4: UFC is calling him egor Severino, but on a lot

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Speaker 4: of betting sites you will see you or to Silva,

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Speaker 4: So just make sure to look out for the potential

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Speaker 4: name differential depending on where you're betting it. But his

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Speaker 4: first name is Igor, his last name will either be

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Speaker 4: Severino or Silva depending on the website.

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Speaker 3: This is our consensus undered out.

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Speaker 4: Another fight between two really young guys twenty and twenty

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Speaker 4: five years old, respectively. His opponent is a kickboxing champion.

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Speaker 4: Severino is the more well rounded martial artists and I

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Speaker 4: just generally am going to pick the more well rounded

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Speaker 4: fighter at plus money. It's also not like he's twenty

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Speaker 4: fighting a twenty eight year old or a thirty year old.

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Speaker 4: He's fighting another young guy who is coming off of

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Speaker 4: a kickboxing career and does not have, you know, establish

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Speaker 4: UFC experience against guys who can actually grapple fix it up.

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Speaker 4: So both debutantes, you know, just taking the plus money

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Speaker 4: essentially and the guy who I think has the grappling upside.

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Speaker 4: Billy can break that one down further. But we are

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Speaker 4: head to head on a couple on this card, including

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Speaker 4: both of Billy's best bets. So my favorite underdog in

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Speaker 4: this card is Cody Gibson. Now he's an older random

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Speaker 4: weight thirty six years old. But Miles Johns is the

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Speaker 4: guy typically a bad against because I think he is

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Speaker 4: bad cardio and he's coming off of a fight where

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Speaker 4: he showed great cardio for the first.

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Speaker 3: Time in his career.

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Speaker 4: It's like, what the hell is going on here? He

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Speaker 4: popped for Taranna ball Hot for steroids and was suspended

380
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Speaker 4: after for six months. He's coming back from that suspension

381
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Speaker 4: now taking this fight on short notice against the guy

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Speaker 4: who has better cardio than him, So I probably like

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Speaker 4: Gibson more live after round one than I like him

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Speaker 4: pre fight. But I just think Gibson is going to

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Speaker 4: land more volume across fifteen minutes, and I think he

386
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Speaker 4: wins the third round about as consistently as John's wins

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Speaker 4: the first round, and I think that second round will

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Speaker 4: be the turning point. So getting pust money on Cody

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Speaker 4: Gibson in a fight that I think is just going

390
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Speaker 4: to come down to the cardio happy to take that.

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Speaker 4: I know Billy's against me in that fight on I

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Speaker 4: would imagine it's partially because the age differential and partially

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Speaker 4: because how John's looked in that last fight. But I

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Speaker 4: have serious skeptic season about John's performance career best performance

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Speaker 4: for me in his last fight, considering he immediately popped

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Speaker 4: her steroids after so very interesting dynamic coming off of

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Speaker 4: that suspension. But you know, I if you were to average, right,

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Speaker 4: like taking other sports, you're going to take a career

399
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Speaker 4: averager performances, You're not just gonna look at that last performance.

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Speaker 4: You may you may wait that last performance a little

401
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Speaker 4: bit more heavily, right, like if starting pitcher in baseball,

402
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Speaker 4: you know, last performance is like the best he's had

403
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Speaker 4: all season.

404
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Speaker 3: But you're still going to take somewhat of.

405
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Speaker 4: An average with the career stats, and the average of

406
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Speaker 4: Miles John's across his career is that he fades at

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Speaker 4: the seven and a half an, So I'm baking on

408
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Speaker 4: him regressing to that mean. We've seen fighters over performing

409
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Speaker 4: the past and Cardio and then in the next fight

410
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Speaker 4: they tend to regress towards their career average. I think

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Speaker 4: you can have a good night, and I think there

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Speaker 4: was a reason he had that good night. But Tate,

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Speaker 4: we'll going to take a shot against him.

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Speaker 3: Okay.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, Billy Ward's got his article up. He

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Speaker 1: puts this out early in the week. UFC luck ratings

417
00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:57,040
Speaker 1: up in Action Network dot Com in the Action app,

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Speaker 1: And why don't we start there, Billy.

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Speaker 3: We'll get to Disilva, but hit.

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Speaker 1: On Miles John's and why you believe he's actually undervalued

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Speaker 1: as the favorite of this fight. You're going against Zerulo here.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. No, He's got me fired up to talk about

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Speaker 5: this PD issue. So, first of all, that was last

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Speaker 5: year when USADA was still a thing. The amount of

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Speaker 5: performance enhancing drugs found in his system. It was caught

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Speaker 5: by the State Athletic Commission. It was not caught by USADA,

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Speaker 5: and then the State Athletic Commission since then has actually

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Speaker 5: raised their threshold to the point that Johns's current test

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Speaker 5: wouldn't fail. Now we don't have USADA, the State Athletic

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Speaker 5: Commission has raised the amounts. Who's to say he's not

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Speaker 5: using the same amount or more of that now, like,

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Speaker 5: of course he is. Actually I'm going to say he

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Speaker 5: probably is. Why wouldn't you be. There's less testing now

434
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,200
Speaker 5: than there was six months ago. So that's my point

435
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,240
Speaker 5: on that. I am not worried about these guys coming

436
00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:53,120
Speaker 5: off overturned wins due to PDS in this post USADA era.

437
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,560
Speaker 5: Other thing you talk about looking at their career average

438
00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:59,359
Speaker 5: or their career average performance. For John's that's a foreign

439
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,080
Speaker 5: two US record, not counting his win that was overturned,

440
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 5: which was making five and two. Cody Gibson is one

441
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:06,400
Speaker 5: in four, one of these guys coming back in from

442
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,879
Speaker 5: the from the Ultimate Fighter. That season. The Ultimate Fighter

443
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 5: was horrible. It was filled with a bunch of guys

444
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,919
Speaker 5: that the UFC didn't think was good enough to be

445
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 5: on the Contender series. It's like we're down to like

446
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,600
Speaker 5: double a baseball, And yeah, he won a couple of

447
00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,159
Speaker 5: fights on the house. I don't really care. He's one

448
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:25,600
Speaker 5: and four in the actual UFC. That's not a great look. Again,

449
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 5: being thirty six. The age is part of it. So yeah,

450
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 5: I just think I used to do exactly what Sean's saying,

451
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,000
Speaker 5: and when a guy had a win that later there

452
00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 5: was some drug testing, I'd discount him. After that you

453
00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:37,640
Speaker 5: saw has gone. Guys, we're not doing that anymore. When

454
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,720
Speaker 5: we think a guy might be willing to cheat, that's

455
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,159
Speaker 5: a reason to bet on him, not against him. In

456
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,919
Speaker 5: these days, and if you get a win and your

457
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 5: bet pays out and two weeks later they overturn it

458
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 5: because they found something in a sample, they don't take

459
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,440
Speaker 5: that money back. So not worried about the performance dancing

460
00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,640
Speaker 5: drugs issue. Don't think Gibson and then the other guy

461
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,200
Speaker 5: I'm in to mention my best bet, which is also

462
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 5: against Sean. I just don't think those guys in that

463
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,080
Speaker 5: season Ultimate Fighter worth much of anything. So that's the

464
00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,240
Speaker 5: big part of this. But you know, the drug issue

465
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:06,200
Speaker 5: is is one as well.

466
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,439
Speaker 1: Okay, here's your response to that. Now you're on the

467
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 1: same side, though, as it pertains too.

468
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 5: To Silva, I totally forgot. I was so fired up

469
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 5: to talk about it's okay, yeah, no, it's Sean nailed

470
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 5: it with all that. Like, we don't really know much

471
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,360
Speaker 5: about either guy. One is more of MMA fighter, One

472
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 5: is more of a kickboxer. Just put on small gloves.

473
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 5: We're in a little cage. There's a lot of ways

474
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 5: this could go. They're flyweights. I think Sevarino, despite being

475
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:33,719
Speaker 5: more of the well rounded fighter, also seems to hit

476
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:35,480
Speaker 5: a little bit harder. You know, he picked up a

477
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,159
Speaker 5: knockout two knockdowns to get to a knockout. In his

478
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,679
Speaker 5: Contender series fight. Lima won by decision against a guy

479
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 5: who didn't really look UFC level. Part of that was

480
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 5: because the other guy, Hickson, was running away from him,

481
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 5: So I'm not totally faulting him on that. But if

482
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,199
Speaker 5: these lines were reversed, I would take Lima plus money too.

483
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,160
Speaker 5: It's just kind of a structural thing. Two undefeated prospects,

484
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 5: young guys, relatively similar fight styles. Broadly speaking, one of

485
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 5: them is plus one fifty one of them one or whatever.

486
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:04,400
Speaker 5: That's easy pick real quick to add onto the naming thing, though,

487
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 5: a certain sportsbook Slash Daily Fantasy Operator lists their name

488
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 5: separately across their own products, so even on one website,

489
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 5: they can't decide what this guy's name is. So be

490
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 5: sure you're paying attention that Igor. Don't worry about his

491
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 5: full name.

492
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 1: Okay, that's that's confusing, that could be problematic, right, he.

493
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 4: Is officially, you know, on the UFC website, he's officially

494
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 4: Igor Severino, and on most betting sites he's Egor de Silva.

495
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 4: So it's it's very confusing. But the UFC is listing

496
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 4: of the severa.

497
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,920
Speaker 5: And topology has him as Igor do Silva Severino.

498
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:43,119
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well either way, like you guys said,

499
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:47,359
Speaker 1: be mindful, he's only twenty. Maybe he's just like he

500
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 1: doesn't know what he wants in life yet. It's twenty

501
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 1: years old.

502
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 4: But it's one thing when fighters get married and change

503
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 4: their surname, and like I get, like, you know, the

504
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 4: betting sites or the UFC not sure what to call

505
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,479
Speaker 4: them because the fans know them as one name. Like

506
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 4: we couldn't just settle on one name. We couldn't settle

507
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 4: on one surname here. Yeah, it's it's it's tough, but

508
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,439
Speaker 4: just just be mindful. I mean, just it's he's the

509
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,360
Speaker 4: only eger on the card, so I don't think it's

510
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 4: gonna cost too much confusion.

511
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 3: Okay, Well, it's like.

512
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 1: When guys get traded or sign with the new team

513
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: and the DFS websites or the betting sites have the

514
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 1: jersey he wore from like it it's a headshot like

515
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 1: seven years ago or from like his previous team, and

516
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:28,119
Speaker 1: they just never updated it.

517
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 3: So maybe it's they look at it the same way. AnyWho.

518
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 3: All right, there you go.

519
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 1: So there's a little pushback with some agreement on Severino

520
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 1: or d Silva, whatever his name is. The Action Network

521
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 1: podcast is presented by North Carolina's newest sportsbook, bet MGM

522
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,400
Speaker 1: used the bonus code action when signing up to get

523
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you

524
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 1: bet just five dollars. Four New users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

525
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,959
Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia,

526
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,679
Speaker 1: and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one

527
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 1: or older. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Let's

528
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 1: go to props before we hit the best bet discussion

529
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 1: between the guys. They're going against each other there, prop Zerillo,

530
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,159
Speaker 1: is this a good week for prompts?

531
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 4: Uh? You know, I'm not sure. I like this card

532
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 4: for underdogs. I haven't dove too deep into the prop market,

533
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 4: but basically a system prop play for me is fading

534
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 4: Edmund Schabzian in rounds two and three. I think if

535
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 4: fights for five minutes long, Edmund Shabazian and Marlon Mirash

536
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 4: would be world championss what fights are at least fifteen

537
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 4: minutes long, and when they don't finish their opponents in

538
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 4: round one, those guys both tend to fall off a cliff.

539
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 4: In fact, Edmund Shabazian's brother also has like severe cardio

540
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 4: disadvantages after round one, so it must be a genetic

541
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 4: thing because they both fight very similarly and then fade

542
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 4: very similarly in round two. I'm not a particularly big

543
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 4: fan of a Dobson. I think he's kind of overrated

544
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 4: as a prospect, but he is super durable and I

545
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 4: think he's very likely to survive that first round and

546
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 4: very likely to work his way back to the fight

547
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 4: and as Shabazi entires. I think Dobson carries enough power

548
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 4: to hurt him and potentially get him out of there.

549
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 4: So Dobson to win in rounds two or rounds three

550
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 4: plus plus thirteen hundred and plus nineteen hundred respectively. I

551
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 4: mean I would have expected even though he's an underdog,

552
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 4: I still would have expected about eight to one and

553
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,239
Speaker 4: fifteen to one respectively at best. So definitely getting more

554
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 4: value on those numbers than I would have expected. Shabazian

555
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,400
Speaker 4: is just a very reliable fighter to fade after seven

556
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 4: and a half minutes. Maybe he makes it to a decision,

557
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 4: but I think dobbson a good live bet after round

558
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 4: one and then I definitely want to share of his

559
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 4: round two and round three props at plus money. Don't

560
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 4: need to take big stabs there. It could even do

561
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,679
Speaker 4: you know, zero point one or point oh five of

562
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 4: a unit, like just very small stabs. But I think

563
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 4: worth having something on dobbson round two and round three

564
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 4: and the one Billy's going to talk about too. I

565
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:49,919
Speaker 4: just think there's a big price of discrepancy between the

566
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 4: money line and the knockout props, so let him go

567
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 4: ahead with that. But I think there's like definitely projected

568
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 4: value based on the differential between the win probability and

569
00:24:58,000 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 4: the actual outcomes.

570
00:24:59,520 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 3: Billy go.

571
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, speaking of fighting brothers who have not shown us

572
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 5: much cardio in the UFC, we have one of the

573
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 5: Tafas fighting. We're hard to keep track of which one

574
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 5: because they keep subming in and out for each other.

575
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 5: This time is justin the even bigger, more powerful, punching Tafa.

576
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: So now now we're now we're keeping eye on the

577
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:18,400
Speaker 1: first name.

578
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 3: This is where we have to keep the mindful of names. Yeah,

579
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 3: so this.

580
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 5: One as long as I bet Junior Tafa almost the

581
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,120
Speaker 5: exact same way in this fight, like you're gonna get

582
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 5: a Tafa. We're not sure which one is gonna show

583
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 5: up in any given fight, but you know they do

584
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 5: fairly similar things. Tafa is justin is four and three

585
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 5: in the UFC. None of his wins have gone longer

586
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 5: than two minutes. He has two decision losses and then

587
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 5: one finish loss. The finish loss was two minutes and

588
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 5: ten seconds. He does one thing right. He comes out,

589
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 5: he swings heavy punches. If that doesn't work, that's pretty

590
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 5: much it. Round one A bet MGM is plus three fifty.

591
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 5: There's books where you can make parlays of round one knockout.

592
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 5: There's we can get really picky and do like within

593
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 5: the first minute or the first second minute. I believe

594
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 5: bet MGM has those. I'm not gonna get that cute.

595
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 5: Just because he's finished them all in the first two

596
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 5: minutes doesn't mean he can't pick up on it two

597
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 5: o eight or three oh three or something like that.

598
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,360
Speaker 5: But yeah, you know, Charl's pointing out the discrepancy. He's

599
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 5: slight underdog here plus one fifty plus one sixty. Now

600
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 5: that's came down significantly. That should be so much closer

601
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 5: to either his knockout proper as round one prop Either

602
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,360
Speaker 5: of those are fine, similar prices. I think round one's

603
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 5: a little bit longer odds, so I kind of like

604
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,239
Speaker 5: that better. But yeah, however, you want to play that

605
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 5: or you know, play them together, pretty obvious, and then

606
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 5: if you want to play it on the safer side,

607
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 5: the finish only line for justin top of his minus

608
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 5: one fifteen, those are best to get refunded if it

609
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 5: goes to a decision. Carl Williams has been to a

610
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 5: decision in all of his UFC or contender series fights

611
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 5: just the total opposite game plan Former two zero five

612
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 5: are coming up to heavyweight just looks to control fights

613
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 5: and win minutes versus a guy who's just swinging for

614
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 5: the fences, and if it doesn't work, it doesn't work.

615
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 5: So yeah, structural play like Seawn was pointing out with Sharbazian,

616
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 5: same deal on the other fighting brother on this card.

617
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel like Williams. The most damage Williams lands

618
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 4: is the takedowns. Like he doesn't actually throw any strikes

619
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 4: at all of his fights. He's slamming people on the

620
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 4: ground and that's the most damage he's landing in the fight.

621
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 4: So I think that finish only line is interesting. But

622
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 4: to me, Williams also kind of has to fight a

623
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 4: perfect fight for fifteen minutes. I'm not sure Tafa's carry

624
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,360
Speaker 4: power won't carry later into the fight, and if Williams

625
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 4: is getting sloppy with these takedown shots or whatever, I

626
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 4: think there's a chance that Tafa catches him. So to me,

627
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 4: Williams almost has to fight like a perfect fight for

628
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 4: fifteen minutes, where Tafa only needs one. So I think,

629
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 4: you know, not only the discrepancy between the money line

630
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 4: and the knockout prop but just also the stylistic nature

631
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 4: of it. You're laying juice on Williams who has to

632
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 4: like control him for fifteen minutes and not let him

633
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 4: get up and land one big punch.

634
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 5: Yeah.

635
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 4: I mean, even though Tafa hasn't wont to fight outside

636
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 4: a round one, I don't think it's he's incapable of

637
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 4: being on the feet again to start round two right

638
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 4: after the opening bell and landing a knockout punch there

639
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 4: and maybe even doing it to start round three. So yeah,

640
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 4: Williams massive grappling upside, but also like needs to not

641
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 4: get clipped for fifteen minutes, and that's almost sometimes harder

642
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 4: to do than landing one.

643
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 1: Okay, there's a lightweight fight on the prelim card. We've

644
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 1: got Ogden and Hollibah, and Billy has a right. I

645
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 1: want to let Billy go first on this, because you

646
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: guys are we let Zerillo go first on the opposite

647
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 1: sides of the spectrum. So Billy, I'll let you weigh

648
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,120
Speaker 1: in first on this, you think Ogden is the favorite

649
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 1: is actually undervalued, and then we'll let Zerillo present the

650
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: other side.

651
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, and it's very similar to my thoughts on the

652
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,119
Speaker 5: Miles John Cody Gibson fight where we have you know,

653
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 5: a guy coming in in Hollibas case. He won the

654
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 5: last season of The Ultimate Fighter. He was another returning fighter.

655
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 5: He went zero to four in the UFC. His first

656
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 5: go round comes back in on the show, so he's

657
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 5: officially one and four in the UFC. But his only

658
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 5: win was against another Ultimate Fighter contender who hasn't done

659
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 5: anything else in the UFC. That doesn't really prove much

660
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 5: to us. And then Ogden, much like Miles John's, is

661
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 5: coming in off of no contest that was clearly a

662
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 5: win for him. He was up two rounds to nothing,

663
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 5: had a submission on his opponent. The ref jumped in

664
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 5: thinking the opponent was asleep. He wasn't. For whatever reason,

665
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 5: I truly don't understand this. When it happens in the

666
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 5: third round, they didn't go to the scorecards. They just

667
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 5: called it a premature stoppage. These are important to watch

668
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 5: because there's been some where the submission really wasn't on

669
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 5: and the guy was fine, and there's been some where

670
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 5: it was like a matter of time and the ref

671
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 5: saved him. This was Option B. Like Nicholas Motta, was

672
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 5: definitely gonna go out from the arm triangle he was

673
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 5: in against Trey Ogden, and I've thought Treyogden his last

674
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 5: few fights one was a loss against Nacho Baha Mundez.

675
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 5: His only other UFC loss before that was a split.

676
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 5: He's looked better and better each of his fights. He's

677
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 5: not super young, he's thirty four, but he's the younger

678
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 5: fighter here, seems to be making improvements. Again, I wish

679
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 5: I was getting a little bit better price on him,

680
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 5: but minus one fifty, minus one forty five whatever in there.

681
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 5: And part of it is just structural for me, is

682
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 5: when we have a guy who looks like he hasn't

683
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 5: won a fight in two ish years, but really won

684
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 5: his last fight, I think the market's going to be

685
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 5: off on that, just kind of by default. So that's

686
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 5: the biggest thing for me, as well as the overvaluing

687
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 5: of this last season of Ultimate Fighter, which was horrible.

688
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: All right in Zeria, You're on thirty seven year old

689
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: Kurt Hallibah on the other side of the Ogden fight

690
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 1: for a best bet.

691
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually think Haliba should be favored here on

692
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,479
Speaker 4: the feet. Ogden to me is a leg kick merchant.

693
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 4: He's won all of his fights by grappling. He's actually

694
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 4: been submitted three times, but he's he's finished all of

695
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 4: his opponents by submission, and I think he's going to

696
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 4: get double or tripled up in terms of volume on

697
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 4: the feed here. So if this fight stays standing, I

698
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 4: think Hallibah beats the crap out of him. If they

699
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 4: end up grappling, I think Halibah is going to do

700
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 4: a lot of scrambling and make it really difficult for

701
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 4: Ogden to keep him on his back. So Ogden to me,

702
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 4: just isn't going to land the damage. I think he

703
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 4: needs to submit Hallibam if he's going to win this fight.

704
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 4: Holibah is going to be landing sufficiently more damage, significantly

705
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 4: more volume across fifteen minutes of this fight. He's going

706
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 4: to be the one applying forward pressure. He's going to

707
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 4: be the one landing more volume, and I think he's

708
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 4: going to be the one hurting his opponent. Haliba's losses

709
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 4: of actually eight aged incredibly well. He lost to three

710
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 4: top fifteen fighters in his division, Tiaga Moisis, Shane Bergos

711
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 4: when he was actually in the prime, and Ronnie Barcellos

712
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 4: came back went on the ultimate fighter beat Austinhubbard. Austin

713
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 4: Hbbard has like a five hundred record in the UFC, so,

714
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 4: you know, Holliba, I think has kind of gotten underrated

715
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 4: off of those losses and the fact that his first

716
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 4: UFC run didn't really go very well, but those were

717
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 4: extremely difficult matchups. Trey Ogden levels below either of those guys,

718
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 4: So the thirty seven year old angle definitely concerning. Once

719
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 4: you get to that age in these lighter weight classes,

720
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 4: you can fall off of a cliff at any moment.

721
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 4: If he was fighting a twenty seven year old or

722
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 4: a twenty eight year old, I'd be much more concerned

723
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 4: Ogden being thirty four also on the wrong side of

724
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 4: the age curve for the division, much less concerned about

725
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 4: the age differential between these guys. Completely agree with Billy.

726
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 4: I think Ogden has gotten much better in recent fights.

727
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 4: I believe he's taken over as the head coach of

728
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 4: Jam Krause's former JYM, so I don't like know, if

729
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 4: you know, just being in the gym or like working

730
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 4: as a coach has kind of changed his perspective on

731
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 4: fighting and how he'll round out his skill set better.

732
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 4: But I just don't think this is a particularly good

733
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 4: matchup for him. I also think, you know he won

734
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 4: is a big underdog against antel' zelb Hubert. That was

735
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 4: more so to do with zelle Hubert just staring at

736
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 4: him and letting Ogden his leg for fifteen minutes inside

737
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 4: the Apex cage.

738
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 3: That was a very odd performance.

739
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think Agen needs to grapple successfully in

740
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 4: order to win this fight. I think there's a chance

741
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 4: that he can. But I think Hulliball is very difficult

742
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 4: to keep down and going to scramble a lot, and

743
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 4: once they're on the feet, I think he's going to

744
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 4: be in Ogden's face the entire fight.

745
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 3: So this should be a fun one.

746
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 4: I think it's likely that it goes to decision, and

747
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 4: I think both guys are pretty durable and considering the

748
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 4: volume for hulliba that's the side I want to be

749
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 4: out a plus one.

750
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 1: Pilly, any further pushback or you good?

751
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 3: You understand the side.

752
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 5: No, I get where he's coming from, And both of

753
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 5: these fights that we disagreed on, I wasn't really looking

754
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 5: too much at the technical side of things. I'm just

755
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 5: trying to I'm playing the market here a little bit

756
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,959
Speaker 5: more than the fights, and Sean's making good points with

757
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 5: some of the technical stuff, although again I firmly disagree

758
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 5: on the PD angle this year now that we don't

759
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 5: really test for those anymore the same way. But yeah,

760
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 5: I get where he's coming from. It's gonna be challenging,

761
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 5: but Ogden has to have those big moments, so I

762
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 5: think you can do that. You know, smaller, cage, a

763
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,479
Speaker 5: little bit younger. Don't like betting on thirty seven year

764
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 5: olds who need to like scramble and be quick, just

765
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 5: as a as a guy getting up there in ears.

766
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 5: You're still grappling myself. That gets harder and harder every

767
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 5: year as you get older. Again, not the tray O

768
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 5: getting super young. But yeah, I'm excited for both these fights.

769
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 5: It'll be really interesting. I think both of these, to

770
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 5: an extent, are going to really let us know what

771
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 5: that last season of Ultimate Fighter really was and whether

772
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 5: it was, like I was saying, a step below the

773
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 5: Contender series, or whether it was a legitimate you know,

774
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 5: these guys are close to UFC level and just needed

775
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 5: their shot, so it'll be fun to have answers to

776
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 5: those questions.

777
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 1: Okay, Jents, good stuff you can find Billy and Sean

778
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 1: individually in.

779
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 3: The free award winning Action Network app.

780
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 1: Find Billy's Pluck ratings right up and be sure to

781
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: digest all the content before you make your decision.

782
00:33:58,520 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 3: A little back and forth.

783
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: Today on the pod, it felt like I was Molly

784
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: Querrom on first take today. I got Russo and I

785
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: got steven A. You know, going back and forth. I'm

786
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 1: just getting out of the way.

787
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 3: So on that note, thanks.

788
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 1: For tuning into the UFC betting preview here on the

789
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 1: Action Network Podcast presented by BETMGM for Shawn and.

790
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 3: Billy Brendan Glasheen.

791
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,280
Speaker 1: We'll be back here next week on the Action Network

792
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: Podcast presented by BETMGM.

793
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 3: Have a great weekend.

794
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

795
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,960
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796
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