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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action awesome

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Speaker 1: all right. Here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing in Joe spect so I'm saying it's a catch touchdown.

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Speaker 1: And we'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to wind. That's incredible, Big Banks, I'm all banks.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate kabak.

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Speaker 2: If you want to back, and we are underway, Welcome

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Speaker 2: into the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Brendan Glasheen,

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Speaker 2: today joined by Action NFL experts Brandon Anderson and Jill

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Speaker 2: Gallant will also.

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Speaker 4: Be joining us.

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Speaker 2: Both of these guys joining us for our weekly Monday

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Speaker 2: NFL recap episodes during the season. We'll recap the Sunday

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Speaker 2: Action look ahead to Monday Night football and then gave

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Speaker 2: a look ahead hot reed picks for the week ahead.

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Speaker 2: But today's show, it's a special one as we build

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Speaker 2: towards that opening night game in Los Angeles between the

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Speaker 2: Rams and the Bills.

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Speaker 4: This is the Action Network's.

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Speaker 2: Annual NFL Exotic Bets as we look ahead and study

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Speaker 2: the landscape of the entire season. That's what exotics are

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Speaker 2: all about, and we can't wait to get into this.

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Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson. You've been involved with exotics for a while now,

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Speaker 2: and you've been big on covering this side of things

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Speaker 2: for action. What do we need to know about the

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Speaker 2: exotic market and generally speaking, what's your overall approach to

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Speaker 2: it as the season years.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, really, this is just a chance to have a

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Speaker 3: little fun where we're gonna make our bread and butter on.

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Speaker 1: Our week to week picks.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna get our over under bets and get some

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Speaker 3: fifty to fifty action in there. This is not that,

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Speaker 3: this is not necessarily the thing to build your bank

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Speaker 3: girl around. This is Hey, you know what, I kind

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Speaker 3: of like this team this year. Let me put down

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Speaker 3: a few bucks, maybe like a partial unit on this,

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Speaker 3: grab my ticket and just hold on for the ride.

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Speaker 3: This year, let's have a little fun, put some sprinkles

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Speaker 3: on the cupcake, get a few bets in that we like.

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Speaker 3: These are the tickets that you're not betting your whole

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Speaker 3: bankroll on, but these are the ones that you're able

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Speaker 3: to show off your friends at the end of the year. Hey, hey,

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Speaker 3: last year on this podcast, we gave out Packers best

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Speaker 3: record in the league twenty two to one.

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Speaker 1: That's the when you get to Victory Alap. This is

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Speaker 1: the Victory Lap podcast.

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Speaker 3: You get to just pick some long shots, project out

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Speaker 3: the outliers where do things go, have a little fun

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Speaker 3: with that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna even say too, Brandon.

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Speaker 5: This is actually the markets that you can find probably

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Speaker 5: the biggest a discrepencies as opposed to a lot of

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Speaker 5: the major market player markets like an NFL MVP Defensive

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Speaker 5: Player of the Year. Those ones are fairly sharp year

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Speaker 5: to year, whereas these ones, because they're so new, they're

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Speaker 5: just expanding year to year. Uh, you could find some

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Speaker 5: holes and then of course just being able to have

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Speaker 5: fun with it, being able to take something, you know,

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Speaker 5: really throw out some outland takes, you know what I mean,

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Speaker 5: because the odds are there supporting it.

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Speaker 2: So those of you that aren't familiar examples in those

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Speaker 2: that are, I apologize for boring you.

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Speaker 4: But examples of this would be if you're gonna.

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Speaker 2: Make or miss the playoffs, exact finishes in a division,

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Speaker 2: so first through fourth place points scored by an opponent,

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Speaker 2: last winless team.

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Speaker 4: A coach to get fired. That's fun. I joked in

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Speaker 4: one of our previous episodes that we talk coach of

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Speaker 4: the year. You think about wait a minute.

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Speaker 2: Usually you're thinking about who's getting let go, because that's

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Speaker 2: just how frustrating the NFL can be when your team

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Speaker 2: is not performing at expectation. But the first one will

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Speaker 2: hit on the first exotic category will hit on best record.

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Speaker 2: And Brandon kind of brought this up referencing the Packers.

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Speaker 2: It's amazing to me, Brandon, how you look at you're

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Speaker 2: like last year and it's really closer than you think,

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Speaker 2: because you see, the Rams won twelve games, the Bucks

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Speaker 2: won thirteen games, Dallas won twelve game, a lot of

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Speaker 2: twelve win teams, but green Bay ended up getting there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and this, really, this is a good example of

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Speaker 3: what a lot of these bets are going to be.

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Speaker 3: This is not the place to bet the favor necessarily. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: we know the Packers will be good, the Chiefs, the Bills,

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Speaker 3: the Box They're all very likely to win eleven, twelve,

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Speaker 3: thirteen games. The books know that, so the odds reflect that.

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Speaker 3: So this is really not the way to go, especially

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Speaker 3: because on one like this, like actually happened with our

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Speaker 3: Packers last year, you can split and then you lose

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Speaker 3: even more part of your odds.

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Speaker 1: So make sure to check the book.

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Speaker 3: What where the odds might split and how that works

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Speaker 3: out for you. You want to go with the longer

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Speaker 3: team here, so I'm taking a longer shot. I like

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Speaker 3: the Philadelphia Eagles plus two thousand, so twenty to one

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Speaker 3: on the Eagles. I have the Eagles projected at ten

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Speaker 3: point eight wins. Now, that doesn't sound like enough to

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Speaker 3: have the best record, but win projections don't really hit

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Speaker 3: the outliers on the high and low ends quite as high.

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Speaker 3: I don't have anyone at thirteen fourteen to fifteen wins,

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Speaker 3: so they're only point four wins off of my top teams,

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs and the Bucks. That is right in arrange

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Speaker 3: very much in a range to take a twin one

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Speaker 3: to bet here. The Eagles have one of the softest

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Speaker 3: schedules in the entire league. They have the number one

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Speaker 3: offensive line with depth, which is really important in a

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Speaker 3: long season. And then look at what they added this year.

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Speaker 3: I don't really feel like they lost much, but they

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Speaker 3: added a good cornerback, James Bradbury, added Hassan Reddick, good

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Speaker 3: pass rusher in the draft, Jordan Davis first round nose

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Speaker 3: tackle I think is going to be a huge impact rookie.

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Speaker 3: And then of course aj Brown the stutter receiver, to

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Speaker 3: really add something that passing game. They already have a

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Speaker 3: great running game. If the Eagles start well, I think

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Speaker 3: they have a chance to be favored in every game

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Speaker 3: as the books adjust as the year goes along. So

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Speaker 3: I think that this is a good spot for them.

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Speaker 3: You can bet one seed. I like them to have

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Speaker 3: the best record. The AFC might cannibalize each other, so

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Speaker 3: I'd rather just take the best NFC team, Philadelphia Eagles

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Speaker 3: twenty to one.

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Speaker 2: And it's a team in a questionable division. Just with

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Speaker 2: the competition. As Murky and Jill, I get the sense

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Speaker 2: that you might be thinking the same way in the

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Speaker 2: other conference.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and to touch on that Eagles pick, We'll be

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Speaker 5: talking about that a little bit more in a different

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Speaker 5: category because I do feel the same things that kind

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Speaker 5: of Brandon was expressing here. But I'm actually going with

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Speaker 5: the Colts at sixteen to one for best regular season record,

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Speaker 5: and you know it starts with the run game. Obviously,

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Speaker 5: Jonathan Taylor is probably gonna be a first second pick

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Speaker 5: in the fantasy drafts.

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Speaker 1: Of most people's.

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Speaker 5: Strong defense, especially on the defensive line. They were second,

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Speaker 5: if not first, in brushing touchdowns allowed this past season,

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Speaker 5: and they have kind of a bend don't break philosophy

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Speaker 5: in the secondary. They did allow a lot of touchdowns

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Speaker 5: last year through the past, but they did sign Stefan

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Speaker 5: Gilmour in the offseason, so I'm hoping that could at

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Speaker 5: least bring that back to league average. And then of

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Speaker 5: course within the division, the Titans have regressed, so there's

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Speaker 5: a real possibility of the Colts going six and o

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Speaker 5: one that division. Now another thing too, I cover years, Brandon.

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Speaker 5: I know Carson Wentz trash is coming, so just be

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Speaker 5: careful here, But they were eleventh and passing touchdowns last year.

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Speaker 5: This is me trying to give credit before I take

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Speaker 5: the rug out from underneath it because Carson Wentz, especially

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Speaker 5: in the latter part of the season, he probably cost

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Speaker 5: them some games in Week seventeen a week team, so

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Speaker 5: I think it's a huge upgrade being able to bring

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Speaker 5: in Matt Ryan. They only have seven games versus teams

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Speaker 5: that made the playoffs in twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 1: Now Week three.

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Speaker 5: Game against KSE that is going to beat the litmus

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Speaker 5: test here to find out whether or not this team

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Speaker 5: is for real. Also, just you know, winning nine games

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Speaker 5: last year there's only a handful of teams that have

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Speaker 5: won nine games like last season that you could make

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Speaker 5: a legitimate case that there's room for improvement. You know,

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Speaker 5: you have the Dolphins and then of course the Eagles,

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Speaker 5: as Branda just pointed out, but they closed up the

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Speaker 5: season as well against the Giants and the Texans. One

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Speaker 5: seed in the AFC is going to be crucial because

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Speaker 5: of that cannibalization of the teams winning. I don't think

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Speaker 5: there's going to be this runaway favorite that has a

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Speaker 5: team like, you know, at fifteen to one entering Week eighteen.

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Speaker 1: Kind of things. So they're not going to wrest their

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Speaker 1: starters in Week eighteen.

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Speaker 5: And just as a safety play again in sixteen to one,

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Speaker 5: you know, you got long shot odds here, but as

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Speaker 5: a safety play, you could look at the one seed

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Speaker 5: for the AFC for the Colts that's sitting at eleven

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Speaker 5: to one, still decent odds if you just.

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Speaker 1: Want to take the NFC out of the equation. So

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Speaker 1: I got to pushback on this one.

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Speaker 3: Gille and I we shared our picks before as we're

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Speaker 3: getting ready for this, and of everything on the list,

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Speaker 3: I was like, what the Colts, So I just I

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Speaker 3: see the Colts very differently than you. I don't think

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Speaker 3: the Colts are bad. I feel the Colts are a

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Speaker 3: high floor team, but a low ceiling team. They're They're

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Speaker 3: really the exact opposite of the sort of team I

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Speaker 3: want to play for an outlier season like this Matt Ryan.

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Speaker 3: I think, looking at Matt Ryan, if you asked an

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Speaker 3: average fan, hey, rank all the quarterbacks, where would you

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Speaker 3: put Matt Ryan?

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Speaker 1: So I just did that.

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Speaker 3: My article just went up this weekend action I work

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Speaker 3: ranking all the starting quarterbacks one to thirty two. I

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Speaker 3: think most folks would say twelfth, tenth, you know, like

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Speaker 3: right outside of the top ten. I have Matt Ryan

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Speaker 3: number nineteen. I feel like that are there are more

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks in that good solid arrange than you expect. And

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Speaker 3: Matt Ryan's numbers have been slowly dipping, and it's about

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Speaker 3: a four year trend at this point, since he won MVP.

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Speaker 3: Is just getting a little worse each year.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: I know team hasn't been very good. I'm not sure

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Speaker 3: this team is a lot better. The offensive line is

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Speaker 3: not what it was supposed to be. The left tackle

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Speaker 3: in particular, it's problematic. The receivers are really just Pittman.

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Speaker 3: So the run game is there, but I don't love

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Speaker 3: the Colts as much. Here's my rebuttal. Each year we

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Speaker 3: usually have a worse to first division winner. I've got

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Speaker 3: an article coming on that I like the Jaguars eight

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Speaker 3: to one to possibly win the division.

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Speaker 1: Now, let's be fair. I don't love the Jaguars.

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Speaker 3: I like them at eight to one. I don't like

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Speaker 3: them just to beat the colt straight up. But Jill,

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Speaker 3: on the last podcast we did, you talked about, obviously

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Speaker 3: the huge coaching upgrade Erwin Meyer to Doug Peterson night

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Speaker 3: and day. So that's the huge thing there. And year

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Speaker 3: two Trevor Lawrence. We know how those quarterbacks take the

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Speaker 3: year two leap. I have the Jaguars winning the division

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Speaker 3: about eighteen percent of the time. It's not that often,

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Speaker 3: but the implaid odds here eleven percent, so we're getting nearly.

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Speaker 1: Double what the odds ought to be. I think that's

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Speaker 1: a better way to play. I agree on the weak division.

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Speaker 1: I do not like the Titans.

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Speaker 3: We will get back to them, but I feel like

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Speaker 3: I'd rather play the Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: Than the high end Colts outcome.

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Speaker 2: Moving on from best to worst, and let's not sugarcoat this.

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Speaker 2: I think we have an easier time identifying who sucks

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Speaker 2: than who's really good. Asking a team to be had

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Speaker 2: the best record, Oh, maybe you got to get the thirteen.

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Speaker 2: Maybe at some point it's fourteen wins down the road

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. But if a team really stinks and

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Speaker 2: you're talking about tanking draft pick quarterback heavy draft, it

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Speaker 2: kind of feels easier it just mentally, at least, Jill,

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Speaker 2: how about a worst record pick?

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Speaker 5: Well, the worst team, the low hanging fruit is obviously

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Speaker 5: the Texans at three to one. Obviously there's just a

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Speaker 5: lot of holes on that offense and just threw out

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Speaker 5: the roster in general.

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Speaker 1: But I'm going to go with.

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Speaker 5: The sentimental pick, the hard knocks pick. I'm going with

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Speaker 5: the Detroit Lions at twelfth to one. Try I'm going

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Speaker 5: specifically because a quarterback play like Jared Goff is probably

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Speaker 5: the least inspiring quarterback if we're going to talk about

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Speaker 5: quarterback rankings, I'm interested to see where he ranks on

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Speaker 5: your list, Brandon, when it comes out on the Action

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Speaker 5: Network website. But then you just look at if at

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Speaker 5: any point he struggles and Campbell has to go to

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Speaker 5: the bench, You've got David Blou Tim O'Boyle, a trio

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Speaker 5: wide receivers that look I like a man sat Mon

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Speaker 5: Ross Saint Brown. But let's be real, it's a bottom

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Speaker 5: five trio in the NFL. I'm not inspired at all

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Speaker 5: by this offense, and I think year over year improvement

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Speaker 5: is just not as evident as the hard knocks interviews

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Speaker 5: and watching it as you want to believe. There's a

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Speaker 5: lot of holes on this roster. They only have three

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Speaker 5: wins last year. One of it was a Week eighteen

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Speaker 5: against a resting Packers squad, the Cardinals with a banged

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Speaker 5: up Kyler Murray and no Hopkins and a Vikings game

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Speaker 5: where many basically gave it away at the end. That

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Speaker 5: was the only way that they've gotten to their wins

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Speaker 5: and path of victory. A lot of people will point

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Speaker 5: to their spread record and how they were feisty and

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Speaker 5: how they were staying in games. No, I'm gonna just

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Speaker 5: say straight up, Lions are going to be again the

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Speaker 5: worst team in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: When total at six and a half is plus money,

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Speaker 2: it's at plus one thirty five taking the under that

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Speaker 2: is I still can't get over that. Also, just real

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Speaker 2: quick thought on hard knocks too. It's kind of bizarre

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Speaker 2: they've avoided Jared Goff.

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Speaker 4: They haven't spent a lot of time on Jared Goff.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if that's a good thing, or maybe

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Speaker 2: the Lions are being smart trying to protect them a

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Speaker 2: little bit. I can't figure that one out. But they

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Speaker 2: haven't hyped him up, nor have they like.

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Speaker 4: Tore them down or ripped into him. Go ahead, Brandon,

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Speaker 4: Just those are my thoughts on the Lions. It's just

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Speaker 4: it's interesting.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you.

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Speaker 3: The Lions have been the Darling sleeper, and I feel

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Speaker 3: like we're just a little overhyped at this point. So

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Speaker 3: I could see the Lions taking this. I'm gonna stay

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Speaker 3: in the ENFCA. I'll take the Seahawks at plus seven

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Speaker 3: and fifty. The Seahawks, I think we all agree, are

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Speaker 3: not going to be good. A difference I like about

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Speaker 3: Seattle versus you mentioned Houston and you talked about Detroit.

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Speaker 3: In Houston, you've got Jacksonville, who might not be good,

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Speaker 3: even though we just said that they could be. We

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Speaker 3: got Tennessee who might be bad. With Detroit, you've got Chicago.

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Speaker 3: With Atlanta, you've got Carolina. The Seahawks don't really have that.

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Speaker 3: The Seahawks have a tough division. It would be very

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Speaker 3: easy to see them going on against San Francisco, Arizona

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Speaker 3: and the Rams. The Seahawks, for me, have the worst

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Speaker 3: quarterback in the NFL. I don't really think it's much

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Speaker 3: of a debate. We now know no Jimmy Garoppolo. That's

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Speaker 3: not coming anymore. They don't have a good offensive line.

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Speaker 3: They don't really have much of anything on the team

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Speaker 3: except for two good receivers. But you need someone to

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Speaker 3: throw them the ball and a couple of safeties that

300
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Speaker 3: they can oblise all their draft picks to get. So

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Speaker 3: it's a tough division, it's a tough schedule.

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Speaker 4: Really.

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Speaker 3: They have every recent a tank too. We'll talk about

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Speaker 3: with coaches. But Pete Carroll, I don't think that they're

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Speaker 3: that worried there. I'm not sure he's going to be

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Speaker 3: the guy to suddenly get the pink slip and be

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Speaker 3: on the way out. They know what this says, they

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Speaker 3: know what they're doing. They traded Russell Wilson. It's a rebuild.

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Speaker 3: It'd be every reason to tank and get that high

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Speaker 3: draft pick, get one of those top quarterbacks coming out

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Speaker 3: next year. I have Seattle projected at four point six wins.

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Speaker 3: The next lowest team on my projections I have at

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Speaker 3: five point four. That is a huge gap in my projection.

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Speaker 3: So I'm looking at Seattle seven to fifty here. I

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Speaker 3: like the under a lot. I'm looking at alternate unders.

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Speaker 3: I'm fading Seattle every chance time gap.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you look at their schedule to open

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Speaker 2: with Denver at San Franz. Those are really two tough

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Speaker 2: games out of the gate, and then they got to

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Speaker 2: go to.

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Speaker 4: New Orleans early in the year.

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Speaker 2: And that's the other thing. They play a lot of

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Speaker 2: teams out of the division. So if they're out of

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Speaker 2: it early and then they got to play their own division,

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Speaker 2: that's a recipe for disaster.

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Speaker 4: Jilly, you got a long shot for us.

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Speaker 1: I do.

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Speaker 5: And I always look at this market as if what

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Speaker 5: if the top quarterback was to get hurt. Now, this quarterback,

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Speaker 5: I'd be very careful though calling him a top quarterback.

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Speaker 5: But for example, I did this last year. I took

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Speaker 5: the Seahawks last year at one fifty to one with

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Speaker 5: the philosophy that if so Wilson gets hurt, it's just

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Speaker 5: such a drop off to who the current starter is

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Speaker 5: right now, Gino Smith and Ordrew Locke, and it almost

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Speaker 5: came to fruition. But for this one, I'm gonna be

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Speaker 5: looking at sixty six to one. It's gonna be the

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Speaker 5: Minnesota Vikings to have the worst record sticking with the

339
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Speaker 5: NFC North. So let's say Kirk Cousins again. I don't

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Speaker 5: like playing these just a lot. I don't put a

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Speaker 5: lot of money on it because just the bad karma

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Speaker 5: of wishing injury on somebody, it's just really going to

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Speaker 5: come back to bite you. But if Cousins missed significant time,

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Speaker 5: if you go through the roster, there is so much

345
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Speaker 5: pending on him that it just such a huge drop

346
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Speaker 5: off to a competent quarterback like Sean Manyon right now

347
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Speaker 5: is tabbed as the backup.

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Speaker 1: Do you remember what happened last year when he started?

349
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Speaker 1: It was awful.

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Speaker 5: One start last year versus the Packers thirty six pass attempts,

351
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Speaker 5: one hundred and eighty nine passing yards, ten total points.

352
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Speaker 5: It was literally a garbage time touchdown to kJ Osborne

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Speaker 5: that even put a touchdown on the board. If he starts,

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Speaker 5: he is going to go to the thirty second ranked

355
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Speaker 5: quarterback in the NFL. I'm just saying that right now, Brandon,

356
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Speaker 5: So at sixty six to one. Again, I'm not saying,

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Speaker 5: you know, you empty your bank roll on this. I

358
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Speaker 5: don't think you should do that for really any of

359
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Speaker 5: these props. That being said, I do think even just

360
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Speaker 5: maybe a zero point two to five of the unit

361
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Speaker 5: something like.

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Speaker 1: That, just to be able to have something in the

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Speaker 1: bank the season goes off.

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Speaker 2: The reels for the Vikings, you get to respond, Brandon Anderson, Yeah,

365
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Speaker 2: I mean King Jersey.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I wore my Vikings jersey just for this bat. Hey,

367
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Speaker 3: hey man, look we trade it for Nick Mullins. We

368
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Speaker 3: got a new backup quarterback in town, Nick Mullins. He

369
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Speaker 3: could be at least like thirtieth or thirty first. Don't

370
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Speaker 3: give me this thirty second in the NFL. Now that

371
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Speaker 3: if Kirk Cousins goes down, I do not like that.

372
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Speaker 3: That is not going to go well. I do think

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Speaker 3: the rest of the roster is a higher floor than

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Speaker 3: you're maybe giving credit for. Just a lot of talent.

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Speaker 3: There a lot of weapons, some good defenders. I don't

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Speaker 3: feel like worst record is in the play, but you

377
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Speaker 3: know what, I could see the worse things. Give me

378
00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,800
Speaker 3: the high quarterback draft next year, and let's start over

379
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Speaker 3: exotic bets.

380
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Speaker 4: Moving along. This one I feel like has a.

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Speaker 2: Little more clarity, And maybe this is an exception when

382
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Speaker 2: it comes to your bank role. Because we talk about

383
00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 2: win totals, this one might have a little bit more clarity,

384
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Speaker 2: and it's not as much of a long shot, especially

385
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Speaker 2: when you look at the numbers, when you look at

386
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Speaker 2: the odds, so making or missing the playoffs, it's sort

387
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Speaker 2: of correlates with a win total.

388
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Speaker 4: But I say that in one breath.

389
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Speaker 2: In another I also mentioned there's seven playoff teams in

390
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Speaker 2: each conference, and it just becomes that much more difficult

391
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Speaker 2: all these tie breakers.

392
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Speaker 4: We mentioned it in.

393
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Speaker 2: Best record, packers bucks same record win total wise, so

394
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Speaker 2: there's a split there. There's gonna be some really crazy stuff.

395
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Speaker 2: And this is coming down to the final a couple

396
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Speaker 2: weeks of the season. Brandon Anderson, why don't you get

397
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Speaker 2: it started? Making or missing the playoffs? What catches your eye?

398
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Speaker 3: Well, if Gial's gonna come after my team, I'm gonna

399
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:31,600
Speaker 3: have to come after his. So I'm going with the

400
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:35,440
Speaker 3: Dallas Cowboys to miss the playoffs plus two forty. Look,

401
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,720
Speaker 3: it's just an insane number that we can make the

402
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,200
Speaker 3: case against the Cowboys. But that is a twenty nine

403
00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,280
Speaker 3: percent chance to miss the playoffs, implies seventy one percent

404
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 3: to make That's crazy. I don't know that it's better

405
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,639
Speaker 3: than fifty to fifty that they'll make it. Tyron Smith,

406
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,800
Speaker 3: the stud left tackle, looks like he's gonna miss most

407
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Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if it's all of the season.

408
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:58,040
Speaker 3: They lost Connor Williams, they lost Lyle Collins. That's three

409
00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,879
Speaker 3: good offensive linemans. Tyron's great, Like when you look at

410
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,760
Speaker 3: their passing numbers, their yards per attempt, they're rushing per attempt.

411
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 3: Everything plummets when Tyron Smith is off the field. They

412
00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:11,920
Speaker 3: don't have great wide receiver depth and they already banged

413
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Speaker 3: up coming into the year. The defense was great last year,

414
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 3: but had a lot of turnover indicators that went in

415
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Speaker 3: their favor. I'm not sure Trayvon Diggs is going to,

416
00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:22,760
Speaker 3: you know, get an interception every single week this year

417
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,119
Speaker 3: like he was doing for a while last year. Randy

418
00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,159
Speaker 3: Gregory gone is a real loss. Tough opening schedule that

419
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 3: I'll come back to again later as well, But I'm

420
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,400
Speaker 3: not sure I see the bottom falling out on Dallas.

421
00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,359
Speaker 3: But it doesn't have to. We only get seven playoff teams.

422
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,679
Speaker 3: I have the Cowboys out, I have them missing the playoffs.

423
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 3: I would take them closer to even fifty to fifty

424
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:44,639
Speaker 3: here at plus two forty. This is actually one of

425
00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:45,800
Speaker 3: my favorite plays on the board.

426
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Speaker 5: Now, see this is where Brandon is mistaken, because you

427
00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 5: can't be a Cowboys fan and not have a tough

428
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 5: skin by this stage.

429
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Speaker 1: So I've heard it all. I'm numb to the criticism.

430
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:58,000
Speaker 5: I'm numb to the you know, just trying to really

431
00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,200
Speaker 5: stab me in the front end back of my heart,

432
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:00,800
Speaker 5: you know so.

433
00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:02,479
Speaker 1: But I'm with you.

434
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Speaker 5: I actually I'm like, I'm pretty down on my cow

435
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,200
Speaker 5: I'm the glass half empty fan of the Cowboys, just

436
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:08,720
Speaker 5: to put.

437
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 1: That out there.

438
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,320
Speaker 5: So I'm with you, and I'm going to be betting

439
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,480
Speaker 5: them to miss the playoffs as well. And the lack

440
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:15,640
Speaker 5: of depth that key skill positions is the first thing

441
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 5: that pops to mind at wide receiver and tight end.

442
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:19,680
Speaker 5: Like you go through their depth chart, there's a lot

443
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 5: of red of oh ir, you.

444
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:23,639
Speaker 1: Know, questionable.

445
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 5: That's obviously a very big concern. I mean, injuries are inevitable,

446
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 5: but that could be a big part in the latter

447
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 5: part of the season, starting a rookie on the blind

448
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 5: side who is obviously struggling, of course with a high

449
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 5: ankle sprain to go into the year in his career.

450
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:40,879
Speaker 5: When left tackle Tyron Smith doesn't play, pressure rate by

451
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 5: opposing pass rushers has gone up an average of just

452
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:47,520
Speaker 5: under fifteen percent per game. Like, the left tackle position

453
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:49,719
Speaker 5: is so huge for the way this offense plays, and

454
00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,919
Speaker 5: it's just a sack spree when he doesn't play. And

455
00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 5: now tough games this season. They got the Rams on

456
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,680
Speaker 5: the road, Packers on the road, Minnesota on the road,

457
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:01,400
Speaker 5: the Titans in Week seventy, they've got Tampa to start

458
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 5: the year at home, and then they've got Cincy. Now

459
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 5: you've got the Texans, Jags, Detroit, and Chicago on the rock. Again,

460
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 5: that's not enough for me. And then of course to

461
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,919
Speaker 5: turnover differential twenty six interceptions last year. They only had

462
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 5: twenty five interceptions in the previous three seasons combined, So

463
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 5: you're not gonna be expecting that year over year just

464
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:20,719
Speaker 5: to carry over Amari Cooper a bigger loss than has

465
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:22,680
Speaker 5: been led on like he was very much a security

466
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 5: blanket for dak in the end zone. This one is

467
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 5: I have to be careful with saying it because I

468
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,880
Speaker 5: don't fully believe it. But at the same time, it's true.

469
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,399
Speaker 5: Each team in the NFC East has improved as opposed

470
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 5: to the Cowboys. No keyop season moves Dante Fowler and

471
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 5: James Washington, those don't count. Cowboys missing the playoffs. Kudos

472
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 5: to the Eagles already.

473
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 1: That's why Cowboy fins.

474
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 5: And now you're gonna have to deal with me laughing

475
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 5: at your teams unapologetically, by the way.

476
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 2: Okay, moving along, we have some more in this category

477
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: making or missing the playoffs.

478
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 4: Brandon's got one more pick, and so does so does Jill.

479
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Titans also to miss

480
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 3: the playoffs. We talked about that division. We don't like

481
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 3: that division very much. That's I think why we're both

482
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 3: looking for a sleeper there. And part of that is

483
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,440
Speaker 3: that we're fading the Titans plus one eighteen to miss

484
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,920
Speaker 3: the playoffs. They just continue to be a major regression candidate.

485
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 3: And maybe that just means that Mike vrabel Is just

486
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 3: has some secret sauce and we just should stay away.

487
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,920
Speaker 3: But I trust the numbers. I trust the turnover aggression

488
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,399
Speaker 3: to come. The offensive line is really falling off. Derrick

489
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:32,479
Speaker 3: Henry is back, but Derrick Henry will have to defy

490
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 3: the odds. Running backs at his age after that first

491
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 3: major injury don't tend to just magically return to what

492
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 3: they once were. The defense I think is more average

493
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 3: than good, despite what we saw last year. This was

494
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 3: the one seed. This was the one seed a year ago.

495
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 3: I have the Tennessee Titans as the AFC twelve seed

496
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 3: right now. That is not even close to the playoffs.

497
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 3: I have them projected at seven point four wins, their

498
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 3: win totals at nine and a half. So this is

499
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 3: my favorite under on the board. I'm looking alternates here

500
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 3: as well. If they pull the plug and go with

501
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 3: Malik Willis for Ryan Tannhill, see what they've gotten him

502
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 3: under five and a half wins plus seven hundred, that's

503
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 3: in play. If this goes south and they say, you

504
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 3: know what, let's go young and just look to next year,

505
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 3: I think that would be in play. But certainly Titans

506
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 3: miss the playoffs.

507
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 1: I like their chances. Theyfce his load and there are

508
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 1: a lot of good teams out there, but you got

509
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 1: Jill I got the Saints to make the playoffs. Pretty

510
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 1: popular pick.

511
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 5: They were four and two last season with Jamis as

512
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 5: the starting quarterback, and I know he's an easy punching bag,

513
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 5: but again, only three interceptions in those games, and that's

514
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 5: pretty good for Jamis in at six game stretch. They

515
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 5: were a top five defense last season, and points per

516
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 5: game allowed, passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns allowed, and the

517
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 5: correlation of the interceptions they were sixth and second and

518
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 5: force interceptions over the last two seasons. They brought a

519
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 5: tyro Matthew. They probably had the best receiving trail they've

520
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:55,879
Speaker 5: had in recent years, that is, if Michael Thomas actually

521
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 5: makes it to the field, you know, bringing in Jarvis Landry,

522
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 5: drafting Chris a Lobby eight games this season versus teams

523
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,159
Speaker 5: that didn't make the playoffs last year, and I'm just

524
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 5: not sure that the Bucks are going to dominate this

525
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 5: division the way that everybody is laying it.

526
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 1: Out for me.

527
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 5: The Saints are plus three fifty to win the NFC,

528
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 5: so I mean Brady a quarterback. They're one and four

529
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 5: in five games versus the Saints zero and four during

530
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 5: the regular season, So I like the Saints to be

531
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 5: able to come through and maybe even win this division.

532
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 1: But I'm going to take them to make the playoffs

533
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 1: A plus one twenty.

534
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 2: Talk about an exotic bet as we move right along here,

535
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 2: talk about one that requires, man, it could get really sweaty.

536
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 4: You could also have it.

537
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 2: There's a lot of clarity, and this could just totally

538
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 2: blow up in your face by like week five. Maybe

539
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 2: that's totally maybe like mid mid season division exact finish.

540
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,120
Speaker 2: So to me, this to me feels like you got

541
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 2: to look at the whole landscape and think, Okay, what

542
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 2: division do I feel really good about in terms of

543
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 2: each of those four teams? Why don't you take us

544
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 2: through how you landed on the division you're about to tell.

545
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 1: Us, Yeah, so I've got a couple of these. I love.

546
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 3: Looking at the division to me is a great way

547
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 3: to Okay, we're only got four teams now, so now

548
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 3: you can actually pick some almost like a head to

549
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 3: head back or narrow the field a little bit. So

550
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 3: all the divisions, the one that I feel is the

551
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 3: clearest is the NFC North. The Bears to me, are

552
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 3: contender for the worst team in the league. They're at

553
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 3: the bottom of the division. The Lions for me, are

554
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 3: are a higher floor, not super high, but higher than

555
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 3: the Bears. I think they're clear. Third and fourth, the

556
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 3: question is can in Minnesota get there to top Green

557
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 3: Bay in the division. They've been a very popular sleeper pick.

558
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 3: We've talked about them on this podcast before.

559
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 1: They've upgraded.

560
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 3: The offensive line should be a little better with Christian

561
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 3: darrisaw the offense overall. The big leap comes with the coach.

562
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 1: Here.

563
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 3: It's the same guys, but Kevin O'Connell getting some motion there,

564
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 3: moving guys around pre snap, after the snap, moving justin

565
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: Jefferson around the field. I think there's a really high

566
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 3: ceiling for this offense, top ten, even top five if

567
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 3: things go right. The Packers lost DeVante Adams, Aaron Rodgers

568
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 3: is thirty eight, will be thirty nine by close to

569
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 3: the playoffs and then the key thing. Week one, Minnesota

570
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 3: hosts the Packers. This is the chance for the Vikings

571
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 3: to make a statement and immediately flip the division and

572
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 3: give you a great chance to get some ROI so

573
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 3: exact finish here. You can bet this if you look

574
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 3: around one, two, three, four in order Vikings one, Packers,

575
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 3: two Liones three Bears, four. You can get that at

576
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 3: ten to one. Now here's why you do this. Vikings

577
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 3: division winner is only plus two seventy five. So if

578
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 3: you go from that and you say, okay, well, do

579
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 3: I think the Packers are going to be terrible?

580
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:35,239
Speaker 2: No?

581
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 3: I think the Packers are still in the mix. So

582
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 3: Vikings one, Packers two plus four ten, that's better. But

583
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 3: then look at the Lions and the Bears. If I

584
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,120
Speaker 3: feel pretty confident that the Lions styhead of Chicago as well,

585
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 3: let's do the whole thing. So I like the whole mix.

586
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 3: You can decide where your cutoff is. But ten to

587
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 3: one on that exact NFC North finish.

588
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 2: Plus four ten, it feels like if you're a believer

589
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 2: in Minnesota, as you clearly are, that's.

590
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 4: Pretty good number. Keep it rolling here, you get a

591
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 4: couple more.

592
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get another one.

593
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 3: I'll do forty nine Ers one, Rams two in their

594
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 3: division plus three ninety. I don't like the Cardinals much

595
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 3: this year. We'll talk about them later, but I feel

596
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 3: like they're a much lower floor team than these other

597
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 3: top two. Add the Niners and the Rams pretty equal,

598
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 3: and actually project the Niners point six wins ahead of

599
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 3: the Rams ten point nine to ten point three. San

600
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 3: Francisco has a bit of a softer schedule than LA.

601
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 3: The Rams obviously have the target on their back. They're

602
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,919
Speaker 3: the champion, and we know how that goes in past years.

603
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 3: The forty nine Ers two what you like, It's gonna

604
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 3: be tough getting to that new quarterback Trey Lance. But

605
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 3: we talked about this in the last podcast. Easy first

606
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 3: two games, really easy final four. So if you're looking

607
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 3: to push for that home game in the division title

608
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 3: that matters, you need to get those wins at the

609
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 3: end of the season. I like the Niners in the division,

610
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 3: but that's plus one eighty five. Give me the plus

611
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 3: three to ninety. Add the Rams in at second, and

612
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 3: I'll take the combo play here.

613
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 2: Okay, that's fascinating too when it comes to the Rams

614
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 2: and the Niners because they actually play each other head

615
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 2: to head earlier in the year, the way they the

616
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 2: way they paired it up. They don't play each other

617
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 2: in December. You see a lot of teams that are

618
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 2: like the league tries to build out these matchups, I

619
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 2: feel like, but now the team they'll play at the

620
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 2: end of the year twice is the Cardinals.

621
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 4: Just the way it builds out from November on.

622
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 2: But the Rams, they play the Rams October third and

623
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 2: October thirtieth, and that's it.

624
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, And remember Shanahan has owned McVeigh and those had

625
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 3: to head matchups lately too, So that's another thing that

626
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,360
Speaker 3: you like. Early on my last one here, I'll stay

627
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 3: in the Bay and I do not like the Raiders

628
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 3: this season.

629
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 1: Well, I don't like the Raiders in their division.

630
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 3: That's where we're at here. Raiders to finish last in

631
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 3: the division plus one twenty. This really isn't even a

632
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 3: bet against the Raiders so much as it's a bet

633
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 3: on Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes, who,

634
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 3: by the way, the three of us recommended as our

635
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 3: MVP plays on the.

636
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 1: Last podcast we recorded together.

637
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 3: So the Raiders have the worst quarterback in the division,

638
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 3: they have easily the worst offensive the division. They might

639
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 3: be at the bottom and coaching and defense. I pro

640
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 3: reject the Raiders that seven point six wins. The other

641
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 3: three teams in Division I have a ten point three

642
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 3: or higher. That is a massive gap between the top

643
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 3: three and the bottom. The Raiders outperformed win total last

644
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 3: year by three point two wins above Pythagora and expectations.

645
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,919
Speaker 3: They finished for the season minus sixty five point differential.

646
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,880
Speaker 3: This is the playoff team. They're outside the top twenty

647
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 3: in all your fancy advanced metrics STEVLA, SRS, all of

648
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 3: the above, they're four to know and over time they're

649
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 3: due for regression despite what they added. And this, actually,

650
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 3: I think is my favorite play on the whole podcast.

651
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 3: Raiders last in the division plus one twenty.

652
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 4: This one's fun some really curious how you guys attack this?

653
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 4: And you both have multiple thoughts.

654
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 2: Team points scored, so most points allowed and then fewest allowed.

655
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 1: Wow?

656
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 4: I mean again, I think I can.

657
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 2: Understand bad team to allow a lot of points, a

658
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: good team to not allow a lot of points.

659
00:28:58,880 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: Got it?

660
00:28:59,240 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 4: Okay?

661
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 2: But still, like Jill, why don't you start us off here? Like,

662
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 2: how in the world do you land on this one?

663
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 1: Yeah?

664
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 5: And when you look at the market, there's eight teams

665
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 5: all within the plus six hundred to plus one thousand range,

666
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 5: and then it jumps to plus two thousand for the

667
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 5: Raiders and another team that is at twenty to one

668
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 5: that I'm picking, which is the New York Giants at

669
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 5: twenty to one. So last season, for example, they ranked

670
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 5: twentieth in points per game allowed, but they did lose

671
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 5: some key players in the secondary. As Brandon alluded to

672
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 5: earlier Brad Burry moving over to the Eagles, Peppers has

673
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 5: gone to which is the air quote strong part of

674
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 5: their defense. And it's about a four point average difference

675
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 5: between the worst defensive team, which was the Jets last

676
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 5: season and the Giants. And one of the things that

677
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 5: I'm thinking is this BET's gonna get a little sweaty.

678
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 5: But if you look at the latter part of their season,

679
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 5: the g Men faced four teams in the final six

680
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 5: games with top five offenses from twenty twenty one. So

681
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 5: if that team is already just kind of mailing it in,

682
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 5: they're at a point of the season where they're just

683
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 5: kind of mailing it into that point, there's a lot

684
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 5: of blowout potential in the games in the latter part

685
00:29:58,040 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 5: of the season. Teams could put up a couple forty

686
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 5: burgers on them and then before you know what, they're

687
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 5: first and the points allowed. So I like the Giants

688
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 5: here at twenty to one for that market taper.

689
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 1: Brandon, what do you got, Yeah, same one.

690
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Lions plus seven hundred for

691
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 3: Detroit A bit of a more obvious pick, but the

692
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 3: Lions were first or second in points allowed the last

693
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 3: two years, or thirty first or thirty second, depending on

694
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 3: you I think about it. The Lions give up a

695
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 3: lot of points. That's the point here. I have Detroit

696
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 3: dead last in my defensive unit rankings. I rake teams

697
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 3: from you know, scale from top to bottom colors in

698
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 3: my spreadsheet green, good, red, bad. The Lions are the

699
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 3: only team on my spreadsheet that are red at every

700
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 3: defensive position.

701
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 1: They're bad.

702
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 3: They're bad at everything. They're probably the worst secondary in

703
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 3: the league. And we know Dan Campbell is gonna get

704
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 3: his guys to keep on trying. Guess what, Lions get

705
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 3: a back door touchdown? Now, who has to score on

706
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 3: the other team to keep out their lead. So I

707
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 3: think that even could help us here. As we shoot

708
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 3: for most points allowed plus seven hundred, I'll take you

709
00:30:57,560 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 3: try hello.

710
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 2: One, all right, how about fewest points allowed. We'll go

711
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 2: Jill Jill first, and then I think Brandon's got some

712
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 2: thoughts too on Jill's picks.

713
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, so this correlates to the best record in the league.

714
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 5: Market that Brandon alluded to earlier. So I'm going with

715
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 5: the Eagles at twenty to one because this might be

716
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 5: their strongest defensive front they've had really since the early

717
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 5: two thousands. Definitely twenty eighteen is reminiscent of that if

718
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 5: you look at top to bottom roster wise, and they

719
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 5: do have the Off Season Championship Belt for best offseason moves.

720
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 5: Filling in some defensive issues like a Hassan Reddick, James

721
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 5: Bradberry great compliments to what they were already doing. Jordan

722
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 5: Davis is already getting great reviews, Kobe Dean will be

723
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 5: able to play some linebacker as well. Eight games against

724
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 5: teams that ranked in the bottom ten and points scored

725
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 5: per game in twenty twenty one. I did almost consider

726
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 5: the Broncos at twelve to one just because of how

727
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 5: strong their defensive front is, but again, playing in that

728
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 5: AFC West, I just worry that they're gonna get up

729
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 5: a forty point game to either the Chiefs or the

730
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 5: Chargers at some point and just completely ruin that. So

731
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 5: give me the Eagles twenty to one.

732
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 1: Yeah.

733
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 3: I like the Eagles here as well. I mentioned their

734
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 3: defense talk. You know you have to like the defense

735
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 3: if I want them to have the best ruccer in

736
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 3: the NFL. You gotta believe that they can do more

737
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 3: than score the ball. I think the defense will be

738
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 3: better than the offense this year. This is a potential

739
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 3: top five defense. We saw last year in the nfcast.

740
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 3: Dallas made the leap. We got credit for their offense,

741
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 3: but is their defense really that carried them throughout the season.

742
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 3: That could be the case for Philadelphia here too, So

743
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 3: I think that's a solid pick.

744
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 4: All right, Jill, And you've got one more for us

745
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 4: in the points scoring department.

746
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, and this just to a correct I had Justin

747
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 5: Herbert as my MVP bet, not Patrick Mahomes. But either way,

748
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 5: I still think Mahomes is a great quarterback who probably

749
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 5: has a great chance to win a VP.

750
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 1: I don't really think that's a hot.

751
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 5: Take, but I do think that the Chargers as a result,

752
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 5: could score the most points this year. And they're sitting

753
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 5: at ten to one for most points so last season.

754
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 5: They were fifth in a fifth highest scoring team in

755
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 5: the NFL last year twenty seven point nine points per game.

756
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 1: And also they were twenty ninth in points per game.

757
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 5: Allowed last year, so that means that they're gonna have

758
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 5: to score more points likely to stay in contention in

759
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 5: certain games, and there's a lot of potential shootouts on

760
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 5: the schedule. You got the Chiefs twice, Vegas twice, you know,

761
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 5: pretty much the whole AFC West. But then you got

762
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 5: the Colts and the Rams as well. Eight games this

763
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 5: season versus teams that ranked in the top ten in

764
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 5: points per game last year. Also the fourth down aspect

765
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 5: fourth last season on fourth down success rate, the only

766
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 5: team in the top ten last year that didn't make

767
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 5: the playoffs in that category. They were also fourth and

768
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 5: total fourth down attempts behind the Lions, Bears, and Panthers.

769
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 5: So what does that tell you from a fourth down perspective? Now,

770
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 5: they're likely I think gouda run a little bit less

771
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 5: this year because running back Austin Eckwherd. They're going to

772
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 5: want to try to keep him fresh for the latter

773
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 5: parts of the season in the playoffs, which I think

774
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 5: we'll put more pressure on the passing game, which then

775
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 5: usually leads to more points. So I like the Chargers

776
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 5: yere at ten to one to score the most points

777
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 5: of twenty twenty two.

778
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 2: Did you factor in if Chase Daniel takes over a

779
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 2: quarterback in this one. Well, you know, boy, to tell

780
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 2: me in one breath that you know Kirk Cousins goes out,

781
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 2: they'll they'll stink.

782
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 4: Is Chase good?

783
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 3: We're ready, liars here, you got it better on the

784
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 3: best outcome.

785
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 5: I mean, Chase Daniel is on the All Finnes team anyway,

786
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 5: for he's a winner in my book with the amount

787
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 5: of contracts that he's gotten in his career, for the

788
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 5: amount of games he's played.

789
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 1: So there'll be no hate on Chase Daniel from my

790
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 1: in love it.

791
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 2: I love how you responded to that. You had a

792
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: very confident I love that. All right, let's spend a

793
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,320
Speaker 2: couple of minutes on these in these next couple, last

794
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 2: winless team, last unbeaten team. These ba I feel like,

795
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 2: are just going to be complete, like, holy crap, dart

796
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 2: throws here, But.

797
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 4: Give it to me. What do you got?

798
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,240
Speaker 1: Yeah? These are complete dart throws?

799
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 3: These are these are put a couple of bucks, you know,

800
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 3: skip a coffee, put a couple of bucks on it.

801
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 3: I'll take two shots here, both at one hundred to one.

802
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 3: So we're just going off the board here, first, going

803
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 3: after Jill again.

804
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Dallas Cowboys.

805
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 3: Look, this is a schedule play if you're taking last

806
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 3: on unless you got to look at the start of

807
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:58,439
Speaker 3: the season right start with the Buccaneers, then it's the Bengals,

808
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 3: then it's at New York time. But on Monday Night ball,

809
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 3: it's always tough to go on the road Monday Night Washington,

810
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 3: then at Rams, at Eagles. That is a tough opening

811
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 3: six week stretch. And here's the key thing we talked

812
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 3: about that offensive line. Here are the pass rushers that

813
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 3: the Cowboys will face that opening stretch. Jack Barrett from Tampa,

814
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 3: Trey Hendricks in Cincinnati, Caevon Thibodeau, and aziz O Jalai

815
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 3: from the Giants. Chase Young should be back by the

816
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 3: time he's playing. Aaron Donald and Fletcher Cox and all

817
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 3: the Eagles front guys. Like, there's a lot of tough

818
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 3: rushing and tough guys on the line.

819
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 1: So just a shot with Cowboys. I will say they

820
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,399
Speaker 1: played Detroit in Chicago week seven and eight.

821
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 3: See, you better hope that the bet has cashed by then,

822
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 3: because they're pbably not going to make it out of

823
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 3: there by that point. But one hundred to one, we're

824
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 3: taking a shot here my other one. We're going even deeper.

825
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 3: I've taken a shot one hundred to one at the

826
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:54,240
Speaker 3: super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills. Like the Bills start Thursday

827
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 3: night at Los Angeles against the Rams, so no one

828
00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 3: would would doubt you for saying, okay, maybe they is

829
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 3: that one next week Monday at Football Home against the Titans.

830
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,319
Speaker 1: But remember last year that did not go so well.

831
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:09,399
Speaker 3: When the Bills play the Titans in a big game

832
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 3: after that, if they don't get out of there with

833
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 3: the win at Miami, at Baltimore, Pittsburgh at Kansas City,

834
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:17,879
Speaker 3: then you get the bye week.

835
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 1: That still counts.

836
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 3: You're staying winless if you make it there, then Green

837
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 3: Bay after the bye week.

838
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,720
Speaker 1: Those are losable games. The Bills are good.

839
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 3: I think Buffalo's gonna be a real Super Bowl contender,

840
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 3: but every one of those games is losible. There's not

841
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 3: a surefire win on there at two hundred to one,

842
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 3: and you know we're doing the worst outcome here. What

843
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 3: if Josh Allen goes down or picks up an injury.

844
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 1: They could be in big trouble if we get there.

845
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,800
Speaker 3: So just just a few bucks and a couple nibbles

846
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 3: on some winless teams.

847
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 4: So how about this last one before we move on

848
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 4: to coach Firings. That'll be fun. Last unbeaten team.

849
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, last unbeaten again.

850
00:36:57,600 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 3: I'm going with another long shot here, another one hundred

851
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 3: dollar one going off the board. My Carson Wentz is

852
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:10,280
Speaker 3: Washington Commanders. Let's go again. Look at the schedule. Jacksonville

853
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:14,399
Speaker 3: to open the season, Detroit in week two, then in Philadelphia.

854
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,399
Speaker 1: We like them, but what if we're wrong?

855
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 3: Maybe the maybe Washington takes your business at home, at Dallas, Tennessee,

856
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 3: at Chicago.

857
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 1: They can win those games.

858
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 3: Carson Wentz can be solid before he gets hurt and

859
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 3: falls apart like he does. We only need it for

860
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 3: the first six weeks. The offensive line improved a lot.

861
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 3: I think the run game will be good. The defense

862
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:36,359
Speaker 3: should be much better than it was last year. It's

863
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 3: a very talented defense. Six games again, we don't want

864
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:42,400
Speaker 3: to last too much longer. After that, we got Packers,

865
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,439
Speaker 3: Colds Vikings at Eagles is gonna go south. We're gonna

866
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 3: need to cash this one quickly. But may I remind

867
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 3: you last year's last unbeaten team was dear Zona Cardinals,

868
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 3: and nobody had that one either, So just you know,

869
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,800
Speaker 3: been a couple of coffees on some long shot hundred

870
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 3: to ones here to see see what happens. By the

871
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 3: time we get to October. Maybe I'll have a big payout.

872
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 2: All right, Jill, we're gonna go on the first coach fired.

873
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 2: But in response to the commanders potentially getting off to

874
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 2: a great start, Jill, why Ron Rivera might be it

875
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:12,439
Speaker 2: might be time.

876
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, And I'm eyeing it specifically Ron Rivera at eight

877
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 5: to one, mainly because of the volatility of the ownership

878
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 5: of Washington And I don't really want to get in

879
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 5: too much about what Dan Snyder is like as a person,

880
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,879
Speaker 5: but he doesn't necessarily have the most patience, and after

881
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 5: getting Carson Wentz, I think expectation is to win now,

882
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 5: especially with Taylor Heineke being the starter last year. I

883
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 5: think everybody can agree that is an upgrade over Heineck.

884
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 5: He is Winz, but also Rivera, you know, one of

885
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 5: the more outspoken coaches, especially in public issues. Not really

886
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 5: that that would be an issue, but I just feel

887
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 5: like from a locker room standpoint, that could be an

888
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 5: issue where he might be shown the door. They've got

889
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 5: Jacksonville Detroit to start the season, So we're gonna find

890
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 5: a very quick litmus test if they lose both of

891
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:58,399
Speaker 5: those games, Like I think Rivera's getting tossed, because if

892
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 5: you can't get out of the book to the boat

893
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 5: and be able to win those games, the rest of

894
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 5: the schedule, like Brandon just alluded to, gets much harder.

895
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 5: So if you get win those two games, then I

896
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 5: think Revera's gonna get shown the door. I do have

897
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:11,920
Speaker 5: a long shot, but I want to hear what Brandon

898
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 5: is thinking for first coach fire. Well, I'm gonna go

899
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 5: with our guy we love to bet against. Here at

900
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 5: the Action Network podcast The Lonesome Loser, Cliff Kingsbury and

901
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 5: plus nine hundred in the Arizona Cardinals.

902
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 1: Have you heard about the Lords and Loser? He's a

903
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 1: loisabout he still keeps up.

904
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:38,840
Speaker 3: Try Look, Kyler Murray's number has not been good without

905
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 3: Deandra Hopkins, and he's without him the first six weeks

906
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 3: of the season. That's when we want to get off

907
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 3: to a bad start. And they play the Chiefs, the Raiders,

908
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,280
Speaker 3: the Rams, the Eagles. That could be an ugly start

909
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 3: for the Cardinals. If Kyler's numbers aren't very good. This

910
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 3: defense is not great. Vance Joseph has a very gambling

911
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 3: type of defense. If they don't get the turnovers, they

912
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:02,239
Speaker 3: could be like a bottom five to seven defense. The

913
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 3: offensive line is aging and not so good, and I

914
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 3: just think Kingsbury is not a great coach. He is

915
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,840
Speaker 3: supposed to have been the guy to renovate this offense.

916
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 3: But it's just bubble screen and flat row one after

917
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 3: the other. And they're playing fantasy football over there. They're

918
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 3: just bringing them like, hey, Aja Green.

919
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:20,680
Speaker 1: Used to be good.

920
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 3: Why don't you come to be on the team now,

921
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 3: they're just grabbing some guys. Doesn't make a lot of

922
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 3: sense to me. Nine to one. I just think that

923
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 3: the Cardinals are a team where if it starts poorly,

924
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 3: the bottom really could fall out there. We've seen Kyler

925
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:34,439
Speaker 3: get hurt in the middle of each of the last

926
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 3: two seasons as well, So I'm looking to fade the Cardinals.

927
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 3: You can take them to miss of the playoffs, you

928
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 3: can take an alternate under, or you can just have

929
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 3: a little fun and bet against Cliff Kingsbury.

930
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 2: It is fantasy land. He took off his headset to

931
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:50,239
Speaker 2: show Kyler how hard this is. I mean, he's going

932
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 2: to be juggling a lot there. It feels like there

933
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 2: could be some uh, there could be some butting heads

934
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 2: there if it doesn't start well.

935
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 4: I mean that's kind of the theme with this exotic bet.

936
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 2: If it doesn't start well, heads could roll any any

937
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,359
Speaker 2: more thoughts on this category. You know there's a few

938
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 2: Matt rules on this board.

939
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 4: Mike McCarthy, if the Dallas you both have been down

940
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:11,800
Speaker 4: on Dallas. How about Pete Carroll? Is a Pete Carroll

941
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:13,800
Speaker 4: realistic here with the Seahawks.

942
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 2: I know it's just more so of his his reputation,

943
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 2: I guess, and his his track record over time.

944
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 5: I don't think so, because I feel like ownership is

945
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:23,920
Speaker 5: going to give him that one year window knowing that

946
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 5: Russell Wilson isn't there to kind of almost like approve it.

947
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 5: Let's see what you can do with these blow average quarterbacks.

948
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,239
Speaker 5: The team is expected to struggle, and I think if

949
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 5: they do it, they would like we do it at

950
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 5: the end of the season, not mid season.

951
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you got to keep that in mind

952
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 1: with some of these.

953
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 3: I agree with Pete Carroll. He's done so much for

954
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 3: that franchise. I won't be surprised at all if at

955
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 3: the end of the year, it's time to say goodbye

956
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:50,240
Speaker 3: and mutually part ways. Right, it's the agreed upon breakup.

957
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:53,919
Speaker 3: We both agreed on this one. Mike Tomlin has way

958
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 3: too short of odds on this. No, I don't think

959
00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 3: the Steelers are gonna be great, but come on, the

960
00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 3: Steelers have like one coach every two decades. They're not

961
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 3: about to fire a dude that has never had a

962
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 3: losing record in fifteen years midway through the season. This

963
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 3: is not what they do some franchises, some coaches have

964
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 3: earned their respect here, Jill, you said you had a

965
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 3: long shot, though, I'm curious who you got here.

966
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna keep his short and sweep.

967
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 5: So I'm going with Robert Sala at fourteen to one

968
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 5: because I think there's a lot of pressure in the

969
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 5: jets Land to win. They've missed the playoffs eleven straight years,

970
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 5: went four and thirteen last year. I think the clock

971
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 5: is sticking on Zach Wilson and his rookie contracts. So

972
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:33,879
Speaker 5: there's some urgency too, especially after the spending that they've

973
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 5: done for wide receiver and on defense. And speaking of

974
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 5: that defense, Solis a defensive head coach, but Jets were

975
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,320
Speaker 5: last in points per game allowed, bottom five and passing

976
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:46,280
Speaker 5: yards and rushing yards allowed. And their first nine games,

977
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 5: I see like one potential win, and that's on the

978
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 5: road in Cleveland in week two. And that's not a

979
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 5: layup either. So you look at the first ninet like

980
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 5: you could see it. By the time they get to

981
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 5: that buy in week ten, he might be showing the door.

982
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 4: All right, let's give out bets before we go.

983
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 2: That was a lot to unpack, a lot to digest.

984
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:08,760
Speaker 2: But we'll go Brandon Anderson first, and then Jill Goalan.

985
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 3: I'll do Raiders last on the division plus one twenty

986
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 3: Cowboys and miss.

987
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:14,760
Speaker 1: The playoffs plus two forty.

988
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 3: Those are ones you can bet the full uniton, like

989
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 3: those are real bets, not these sprinkled long shots. And

990
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 3: then my favorite long shot on here is that NFC

991
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 3: North Vikings, Packers, Lions, Bears exact finish plus one thousand.

992
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:28,840
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with Saints to make the playoffs and

993
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 5: plus one twenty as my best bet. I also do

994
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 5: like the Eagles again at the least points allowed at

995
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:35,839
Speaker 5: twenty to one, and then from a long shot, even

996
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 5: though it has less odds than the twenty to one,

997
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 5: Robert Style at fourteen to one. Again the writing is

998
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 5: on the wall. Get your poop in a group.

999
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 2: What a way to finish great stuff, gents, awesome here

1000
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 2: on this episode. As a reminder, we'll have a lot

1001
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 2: of some great, great episodes heading into Week one. Our

1002
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 2: Week one betting preview on September eighth, also coming up

1003
00:43:56,080 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 2: on the Action Network podcast, NFL Pool Strategy coming soon.

1004
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 2: Also our final UFC betting episode of the season this

1005
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 2: coming Friday, UFC Paris Preview.

1006
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:08,839
Speaker 4: Be on the lookout for that.

1007
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 2: And that concludes our NFL Exotic Bets Episode four. Jill

1008
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:19,720
Speaker 2: Gallant and Brandon Anderson, Brendan Glasheen, best of luck out there, everybody.

1009
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 4: We'll see you next time right here on the Action

1010
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:22,719
Speaker 4: Network podcast