1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This is 11 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 2: a joy and you people go to me, why do 12 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 2: you celebrate people that get it wrong? And I had 13 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 2: a blistering argument once with some people about this. You 14 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 2: learn just as much from people who get it wrong 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 2: as you do from people to get it right. But 16 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 2: it's always a joy to have somebody in who absolutely 17 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 2: nailed this. And he has an informative note this morning 18 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 2: from the Bank of Montreal Female Capital Markets. With the 19 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 2: victory lap of the last eighteen months, Ian Lingen, with 20 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 2: a ten year yield below four percent, did you figure 21 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 2: we would go price up? Yield? Down in this manner 22 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:26,479 Speaker 2: or do you just make the guests? And we got 23 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 2: there for a different reason. 24 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 3: I've been reasonably confident that something would break with the 25 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 3: terminal rate as high as it was, for as long 26 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 3: as it was. It's we're going to end up on 27 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 3: four hundred and twenty one days at five point five 28 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 3: percent as the upper bound come the eighteenth of September, 29 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 3: and that is going to be not a record, but 30 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 3: a very significant degree of tightening. 31 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 2: I talked to Matt Lazatti. I didn't get to this. 32 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 2: I'm going to get to it right now with Ian Ling. 33 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 2: A nice move there, Paula changed the micro around Zucki's 34 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 2: you know, a pack could work at the Olympics in 35 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 2: Paris on it to get the mic in front of 36 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 2: the pole vault. And I didn't get to this with Lyzetti. 37 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 2: But the answer is, formulas like the Taylor rule are 38 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 2: wildly distant now from where the FED is. How urgent 39 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 2: is it that the FED catch up to what John 40 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 2: Taylor at Stanford says, or other people frankly say they 41 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 2: should be. 42 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:24,519 Speaker 3: I think that the FED is cognizant of this, and 43 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,240 Speaker 3: that's why they opened the discussion. They laid the groundwork 44 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 3: for rate cuts in December of last year. Recall Powell's pivot. 45 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 3: Now that didn't play out, and we all remember what 46 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:39,799 Speaker 3: happened between January and March. But by opening that discussion, 47 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 3: the FED has allowed the market to do some of 48 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 3: the heavy lifting for it. So that's one of the 49 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 3: reasons that equities had been performing as well as they 50 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 3: had and real rates, while elevated, were not at concerning 51 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 3: levels as we have seen in prior cycles. 52 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 4: So I'm an equity guy. I don't know what this 53 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 4: rate market thing is all about. I go to you 54 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 4: guys in Ira Jersey. Is fifty basis points baked in 55 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 4: for September? Or is there still some debate about September. 56 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 3: I think it's still a very active debate about September. 57 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,639 Speaker 3: I'm in the twenty five basis point camp, and the 58 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:17,359 Speaker 3: logic there is we have three more key data releases 59 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 3: before the FED decides. We have two CPI prints and 60 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 3: a payrolls number, and frankly, Friday's number, while it was 61 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 3: somewhat troubling, was certainly not catastrophic. We have an unemployment 62 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,239 Speaker 3: rate that's still below four and a half percent. We 63 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,119 Speaker 3: have positive payrolls growth, and at the end of the day, 64 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 3: the FED wanted to instill a degree of balance into 65 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 3: the labor market, and that's precisely what they got. 66 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 4: Monday morning, there was a little bit of panic in 67 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 4: the market. It felt like, you know, I hadn't felt 68 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 4: that in a while. I hadn't seen that in a while. 69 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 4: People were actually talking about an emergency rate cut. Is 70 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 4: that something or is that just overblown concern on a 71 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 4: Monday morning. 72 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 3: Well, given the price action that would that played out 73 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 3: on Monday morning, was going on with the y in 74 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 3: what was going on with Japanese equities and global equities 75 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 3: more broadly, one would have been remiss not to at 76 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 3: least have an emergency cut as a as a potential. 77 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 3: But now we've stabilized, and as we've stabilized, the bar 78 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:18,679 Speaker 3: has increased for the FED to consider cutting rates before 79 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 3: the eighteenth of September. 80 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 2: I came in this morning, and this is the glory 81 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 2: days of twenty years ago. I used to It's how 82 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,479 Speaker 2: I got my job. I used to construct fancy charts. Okay, 83 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 2: I did log vix. That's its own story. It's away 84 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 2: from me and Lingoen. But I did log inflation adjusted 85 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 2: ten year yield the real yield. So I had a 86 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 2: higher real yield as far back as July two point 87 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 2: zero zero percent two point zero two. We gloriously come in. 88 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 2: Then we have Japan, we come in even further. Where's 89 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,919 Speaker 2: a normal real yield right now? I think even Global 90 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 2: Wall Street doesn't know what to do here at a 91 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 2: one point eight zero is that elevated still? 92 00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 3: I would say that that's still elevated, and the FED 93 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 3: would argue that's still restrictive. But the reality is, we 94 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 3: don't need to go back to zero in terms of 95 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 3: where we. 96 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 2: Need to go to to get an efficacy for the 97 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 2: overall financial system. 98 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 3: I think that our estimates somewhere in the fifty to 99 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 3: seventy five basis point range under one percent, under one percent, 100 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 3: you got it, We give me. 101 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 2: That's an American if one of their Canadian shock, that's 102 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 2: why are you kidding me? 103 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 3: No? I think that that's actually a reasonable level to 104 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 3: assume for real rates over the next. 105 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 2: So you're modeling out a six percent nominal GDP. If 106 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 2: we get a pop down to point five zero positive 107 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:40,359 Speaker 2: ten year inflation is just yield, You're goosen You gotta 108 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 2: be goosen out. To six percent nominal unless you get 109 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:44,919 Speaker 2: global disinflation. 110 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 3: Right, And what's to assume that we won't find ourselves 111 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 3: in a disinflationary environment globally? And I think that that's 112 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 3: what we're running up against, and that's what to a 113 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 3: large extent, the FED is trying to avoid, and that's 114 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 3: why they're being as proactive. 115 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 2: I mentioned this all three times a sweek. Last week's 116 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 2: single sentence that mattered way lead black Rock. She's model 117 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 2: in China at a three percent run rate, yep, nobody 118 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 2: even eating Lincoln. At least some Tao's ready for that, 119 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 2: but not even Lincoln. 120 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 4: And when the FED starts cutting rates, let's assume it's September, 121 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 4: how do they proceed from there? Is it every twenty 122 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:20,719 Speaker 4: five basis points every meeting, every other meeting? Do they 123 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 4: keep it open maybe fifty points at some point? 124 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 5: How does that work? Usually? 125 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 3: Well, we're certainly in a typical environment. And so far 126 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 3: as the FED is not responding to a crisis, at 127 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 3: least not yet, all they're doing is going from restrictive 128 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 3: to less restrictive. So they're not easing in the traditional sense, 129 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 3: and so that will afford them the opportunity to deliver 130 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 3: quarterly rate cuts if they deem necessary. So twenty five 131 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 3: basis points a quarter is our base case scenario. Okay, 132 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 3: depending on what the next couple weeks gives us in 133 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 3: terms of data, we might actually pencil in another twenty 134 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 3: five for November. 135 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 4: How about the political aspect to it? I mean year that. 136 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 4: How does the Fed? 137 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,840 Speaker 2: Are you talking Canada or US? He was, okay. 138 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 3: I think that the presidential election has made it a 139 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 3: bit more difficult for the Fed to do either a 140 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 3: fifty or an inter meeting cut because there's the political 141 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 3: aspect of it. But twenty five has been well telegraphed 142 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 3: and is baked into market. 143 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 2: I've got to make some news here. You've been the genius. 144 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 2: I can't say enough, folks, how Lincoln's led the charge? 145 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 2: David Roseberg? What is it about Canada? I don't know, Montreal, 146 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 2: Wan Rosenberg up in Toronto. It's the air of the water. 147 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 2: Maybe it's the La bats all. Excuse me, Molson. I'm sorry, 148 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 2: banker Montreal, but I lingen help me here. If I 149 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 2: get a point five zero ten year real yield, where 150 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 2: does that put nominal tenure in the Lincoln universe? 151 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 3: Well, we will be pushing back below three percent. Now 152 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 3: that's not going to be this year, but that is 153 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 3: certainly on the horizon for let's call it the next 154 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 3: twenty four months. 155 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 2: You are modeling sub three ten year two point ninety 156 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 2: five percent. 157 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 3: Now by the end of two thousand and twenty six. 158 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 3: Very doable. 159 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 4: All right, I'm gonna refinance the mortgage. There now we're 160 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 4: talking eat Lincoln. 161 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 2: Thank you so much at BEMO Capital Markets. I can't 162 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 2: say enough about it, folks. It's the most valuable fixed 163 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 2: income note. Good morning, Ira, Jersey on the street. Go 164 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 2: to Bemo Capital Markets to see what Lincoln's thinking about. 165 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 2: It's a three hour conversation with the most important effects 166 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 2: person on the planet. Audrey Child Freeman joins us now 167 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 2: with Bloomberg Intelligence, London. I just got to digress here, Audrey, 168 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 2: pret time is precious. Your thoughts on the success of 169 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 2: France delivering the best Olympics ever? What's it like? 170 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 1: It feels good. It's not finished yet, but so far 171 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:02,320 Speaker 1: Stuth and needed feedback has been amazing. And what we 172 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: hear from Paris is the atmosphere is excellent, and so 173 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: it's a big success after early uncertainties. 174 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 2: Under the headlines, and folks, I can't say enough how 175 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 2: Audrey dives deeper. Audrey, I'm looking at the Japanese ten 176 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 2: year real yield and basically the experiment they've done for 177 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 2: the last three, four or five years has a long 178 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 2: way to go. Do you agree that we're only partly 179 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 2: through the young clearing experiment? 180 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,959 Speaker 1: I agree with that view. I agree with the view 181 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 1: that the unwind of the carry trade is not completed yet. 182 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: I am very cautious in trying to quantify how much 183 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 1: we've seen and how much is left. But you know, 184 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: if you look at some of the indicators, such as 185 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 1: the CFTC numbers for instance, which gives you a little 186 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,040 Speaker 1: bit of a flavor as to where we are, it 187 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: would appear that, you know, the market is still underweight 188 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 1: the end. So yes, the answer is we're probably not 189 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: done yet. And to go back to the early point 190 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 1: you were making about the BOJ, I also feel that, yes, 191 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: the BOJ had a big part to play in that 192 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: move last week and in the past few weeks. But 193 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: for me, it's been very much, you know, fed driven, 194 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 1: and I also feel that the second or the next leg, 195 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: I don't know if you can call it second, but 196 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: the next leg lower in yen will also be mainly 197 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: fed driven. 198 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:39,839 Speaker 2: Do you have a target on it that's support? And 199 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 2: if we get through one fifty, where does audrichild Freeman 200 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 2: feel weak and can go? 201 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 1: So I think at the moment it's it's very difficult 202 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 1: to agree to give you a level right now, just 203 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: you know the direction is If you get the direction right, 204 00:10:55,000 --> 00:11:00,679 Speaker 1: you're a hero. But I think the level what I 205 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 1: will wait to see is where the new ranges establish themselves. 206 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 1: You know, we're still not sure that you know, we're 207 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: not going to see, you know, another big wave of 208 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 1: moves in the in the next few sessions. You know, 209 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,439 Speaker 1: we've one we've gone to one forty two inch a 210 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: day on Monday, we're back at one forty seven today 211 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 1: just on the boj rape mentioned this morning. Yesterday we 212 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: were one forty five. So what I need to see 213 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: first is is the new kind of range that we 214 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: base ourselves from one forty five to one fifty and 215 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 1: that's where I kind of expected to be. And if so, 216 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: what do we do? And what I do is I 217 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 1: wait for, you know, the next trigger to move lower. 218 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 1: And I kind of feel that that next trigger may 219 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:52,479 Speaker 1: come from the US but it won't be as extreme 220 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 1: as what we've seen in the past few sessions and weeks. Do. 221 00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 4: I think a lot of folks are trying to get 222 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 4: a handle on, you know, we get the yen from 223 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:02,560 Speaker 4: one sixty to one forty, now we're back at you know, 224 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:06,960 Speaker 4: kind of one forty seven. What's moving the Is it 225 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 4: the Bank of Japan? Is it the market? I mean, 226 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 4: is this normal? What's kind of moving this market so dramatically? 227 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: So it's certainly not normal. I just feel that it 228 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 1: was very much a combination of factors together. So we 229 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 1: talked about the weakness in the US employment report on 230 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 1: last Friday, and I should say softness. You know, it 231 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: wasn't dramatically weak. It was just softer than what would 232 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 1: become used to for the US employment reports. As well 233 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: as you know, the bog coming up more hawkish and 234 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: expected last week. And this was happening at a time 235 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 1: when positioning was had become extreme earlier in the in 236 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 1: the summer, certainly when we were trading around sixty two. 237 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 1: And the final point I would add, you know, the 238 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 1: kind of icing on the take last week was It's 239 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 1: still difficult to sets what trader was, but certainly the 240 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:07,199 Speaker 1: risk of market sentiment that we had via other asset classes, 241 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: the equity market downside, that exacerbated the on wide on 242 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: some of the crosses and EMFX and em instance. That's 243 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 1: another reason. 244 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 2: Quickly, I got only one minute. How do you use 245 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:23,239 Speaker 2: real yield analysis right now? How do you use inflation 246 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 2: adjusted yields in your study? 247 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: Well, what we think is that the US and the FED, 248 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 1: this inflation story should allow the FED to cut interest rates. 249 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 1: And remember that the narrative on the FED has moved 250 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 1: so much in the course of the year. And that's 251 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 1: you know, from talking rate hike a few months ago 252 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 1: to no hike at all, to maybe a precautionary red cut. Sorry, 253 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,839 Speaker 1: and now we're talking about a series of rate cuts 254 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 1: for this year. We're talking about one hundred bits rate cuts. 255 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 1: So this is how in the context of this inflation 256 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 1: in the US, and that's probably enough to take your 257 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 1: dollar narrative lower. 258 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 2: This has been helpful, Audrey Child Freeman, thank you so much. 259 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 2: Publishing at Bloomberg Intelligence can't say enough about their value 260 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 2: add on the Bloomberg terminal. We pride ourselves on a 261 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 2: different set of guests. Brian Weezer from day one has 262 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 2: been different. We're thrilled that he could join us this morning. 263 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 2: Just lots going on there with Madison and while Brian 264 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 2: out broken, Brian Weezer is Disney. 265 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 6: I don't think it's broken. I think that they, like 266 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 6: a lot of media companies, have been struggling to figure 267 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 6: out what to do and how to organize themselves for 268 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 6: the future. I think that they had strategic clarity in October. 269 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 6: They're about the twenty eighteen when they launched Disney Plus. 270 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 6: I think they lost a lot of strategic clarity certainly 271 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 6: going into the return of Bob Iger and in the 272 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 6: subsequent periods they're still trying to figure a lot of 273 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 6: things out. You know, they really had the right strategy 274 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 6: trying to focus on global for lack of better word, 275 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 6: domination in the streaming work, going head ahead with Netflix 276 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 6: and Amazon on the streaming video often that's. 277 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 2: The heart of the matter. 278 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think so. 279 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 2: I mean, the bottom line is they're going up against giants. 280 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 7: They are. 281 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 4: They're going up against giants, but they're a giant themselves. Brian. 282 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 4: They did actually show some profitability in the streaming business 283 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 4: here today. What do you and Arresta Wall Street think 284 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 4: about the future of that business From a profitability perspective. 285 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 6: Well, I think most of Wall Street is really focused 286 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 6: on profitability to your point now where I sit, which 287 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 6: is well Madison wall We we think that they really 288 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 6: need to focus on focusing on ongoing scale, which might 289 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 6: mean profitability is a later thing, because if you want 290 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 6: to build up to compete better globally with Netflix and Amazon, 291 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 6: I think profits is something you've got to focus on 292 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 6: later on. They've got parks fund profits. I think if 293 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 6: you want to build a streamin is you have to 294 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 6: continue to invest in content, programming and distribution. 295 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 4: So, Brian, they thought it's actually a pretty good quarter 296 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 4: from the box office the studio. Have they gotten their 297 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 4: mojo back there with all the Disney studio product? 298 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 6: Yeah, it definitely seems like I haven't focused on the 299 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 6: studio results right now. I mean, obviously everyone's aware of 300 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 6: just how well I think it set out Deadpool done. 301 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 6: But I think that one could say, yeah, it feels 302 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 6: like they maybe they never really lost it. It was 303 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 6: just a couple of bad movies, Brian. 304 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:35,239 Speaker 2: The music businesses having an existential crisis over what copyrights 305 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 2: are worth. Is it the same with the catalogs of 306 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 2: the studios is Pinocchio or Dumbo or you know something 307 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 2: new Mandalorian. Are those copyrights maybe just simply not worth 308 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 2: the goodwill or bad will on the balance sheet? 309 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know. 310 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 6: Well, here's the thing. When it comes to streaming services, 311 00:16:56,920 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 6: you come for the new original content and you stay 312 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 6: for the library. Disney has this massive and amazing skill 313 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,959 Speaker 6: library and no one else will likely ever have anything 314 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 6: like that, but not for a very long time. So 315 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,919 Speaker 6: they need both, right as long as they continue to 316 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 6: have more and better programming, and Hulu I think has 317 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:21,720 Speaker 6: been crushing it from that front. Disney plus arguably needs 318 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 6: a lot more. Then there's something for people to come 319 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 6: for initially and then stick around for. So I think 320 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 6: you do need both, and Disney there'll be better positions 321 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:35,399 Speaker 6: they invest again more in programming and content for originals 322 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,200 Speaker 6: to support what they already have in this great library. 323 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:41,359 Speaker 2: We can we have a moment of silence for Brian 324 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 2: Weezer quickly here Paul asked him a question on this. 325 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 2: Brian Weezer nailed NBC in the Olympics. Yeah, nailed it 326 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 2: five years ago exactly. 327 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 4: So hey, Brian, just to go down that path, I mean, 328 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,920 Speaker 4: I'm having fun with the Olympics. What does it mean 329 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 4: for comcasts and NBC Universal? Is this gonna be a 330 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:00,680 Speaker 4: win for them? 331 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 6: Well, I mean, here's the thing. It's probably they're better 332 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,120 Speaker 6: off having it than not, I guess is a better 333 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 6: way to put it. It's a really expensive proposition obviously 334 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,399 Speaker 6: to run the Olympics, and I'm sure they'll say, you know, 335 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,400 Speaker 6: they'll make a profit on the Olympics and that's good 336 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 6: for them. But you could also argue, well, couldn't they 337 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,160 Speaker 6: also invest in other programming and be just as well 338 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 6: off profit wise. Probably, So, I don't think we want 339 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 6: to overstate it as somehow you know, uniquely positive as 340 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 6: a way to build a business. It's definitely a way 341 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 6: to build a business. But I don't think we want 342 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:35,160 Speaker 6: to overstate it either. 343 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 2: Brian on short notes, thank you so much for the 344 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 2: huge announcment from Disney spiking up early and by public acclaim, 345 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 2: I mean your daily look at the front pages of 346 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 2: Lisa Minna Tello our Lisa way too long? 347 00:18:56,600 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 5: What do you have you missed it? Okay, have you 348 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 5: been to the movies lately? 349 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 7: This is the problem. See that's the problem. Okay, a 350 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 7: lot of people not going to the movies. So theaters 351 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 7: are offering different perks, they're trying different things. There have 352 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 7: been some summer hits, you know, Deadpool, Wolverine, I'll probably 353 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 7: see it this weekend, Inside Out two, Despicable Me for 354 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 7: those were big things this summer. But ticket sales still 355 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 7: lagging behind last year. I mean, the summer is the 356 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 7: big part for theaters. It's forty percent of their domestic 357 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:30,520 Speaker 7: ticket sales. Fewer wider releases. A lot of people watching 358 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 7: from home too, They're going to streaming. They're more comfortable 359 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 7: at home. So what theaters are doing, they're offering perks 360 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 7: like special popcorn buckets is one. 361 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 5: Thing in theater playgrounds. You'll like this one. 362 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 7: Cocktail bars inside the theaters, Okay, order ahead concessions. 363 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 5: I know my family loves this. 364 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 7: You do it online on your app and then you 365 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:52,160 Speaker 7: get there, you don't have to wait in the line 366 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 7: and the popcorns just waiting for you. So those are 367 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 7: some of the things they're doing that. A lot of 368 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 7: them like the IMAX. 369 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 5: Better I know for that, yeah you know, but you 370 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 5: pay for that. 371 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 7: But you pay extra for yeah, So they're kind of 372 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 7: banking on that too. 373 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 5: So a lot of changes going on. 374 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 2: And afterthought is glued to the computer watching movies. She 375 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,800 Speaker 2: watched Chicago the other night. I'm trying to get her 376 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:21,680 Speaker 2: to watch Lost in translation. It's not the same theme laptop. 377 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 2: Our kids are being cheated. It is the way I'd 378 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 2: look at it. 379 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:29,400 Speaker 7: Yeah, there is used to even watching it on their phone. 380 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 4: But I'm watching. I mean my parents. My parents will 381 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:33,679 Speaker 4: tell me they would go to the movies theaters two 382 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 4: or three times a week. 383 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 2: Oha, that was it. 384 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 4: And then you and they had all the movie shorts 385 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,360 Speaker 4: and all this. So that experience is different from what 386 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 4: we grew up with, which I still think was a 387 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:48,640 Speaker 4: good theater experience. Now to today, the case you say technology. 388 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 2: My father aged Lawrence of Arabia, was two dollars seventy 389 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 2: five cents. It's they got old. Next, what do you go? 390 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 7: Taylor Swift fans, they're celebrating Kamala Harris's running mate, Tim Waltz. 391 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:00,200 Speaker 5: Okay, there's some reason. 392 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 7: And Swift he is a swifty Okay, they're calling him 393 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:06,159 Speaker 7: the Swifty VP. 394 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 5: A couple of things he's done. 395 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 7: Remember back in November twenty two, right rafter that Ticketmaster 396 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 7: disaster with the Swift tickets. So he posted a picture 397 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,159 Speaker 7: of his cat on X and said that you know, 398 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 7: it was online all day and now it's not getting. 399 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 5: Taylor Swift tickets. Then he went further. 400 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 7: He signed this so called Taylor Swift Bill that was 401 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 7: in Minnesota into law. I kind of guarantees that protection 402 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 7: for people buying tickets online. And then he proclaimed two 403 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,680 Speaker 7: Taylor Swift Days in Minnesota of June because the tour 404 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 7: came to Minneapolis. 405 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 6: So wow. 406 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,359 Speaker 7: He complained that he claimed those days and a lot 407 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,159 Speaker 7: of Swift fans are jumping on. They're making friendship bracelets 408 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 7: with his name on it. So it was attracting that younger. 409 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,640 Speaker 4: It's friendship brace But I do know it is a thing. 410 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,440 Speaker 4: It is a big thing, right, So maybe he's getting 411 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 4: the Swifty vote. That's got to help. 412 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 5: On the margin that younger. 413 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:01,160 Speaker 2: Sure they're looking for that because they don't need friendship. 414 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 2: Maybe it's because no friends. 415 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 7: That could be I'll make you one next Olympics fever, right, 416 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 7: that's all we're talking about. 417 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:11,400 Speaker 5: Olympics. Olympics. 418 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 2: I love the vault lesson. 419 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:16,920 Speaker 5: That just amazes me. That sport in itself. 420 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 7: Did you know they have breakdancing too, By the way, 421 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 7: that's another story. But the problem is that, you know, 422 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 7: it fades out after three years. You know, you have 423 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 7: this whole hype and then it fades out. So Netflix 424 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 7: wants to change that. They're partnering with the International Olympic Committee. 425 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 7: They're filming documentaries right. 426 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,160 Speaker 2: Now about the auto racing thing. 427 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 7: It's the same people, the Box of Box Films that 428 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 7: did the auto racing thing. Okay, so they're there, that 429 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,520 Speaker 7: production company and they're filming all those different sports. And 430 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 7: what they're gonna do is they're going to take that 431 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 7: footage and they're going to put it into different seasons. 432 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 7: They have the Netflix documentary Sprint, so they're doing another 433 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,360 Speaker 7: season of that, you know, in the off season when 434 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 7: the Olympics aren't running. They're doing another season of some 435 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 7: Moanbiles Rising because that was a hit on Netflix. So 436 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 7: they're figuring film again now and then we'll you know, 437 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 7: air it later, so that will. 438 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 5: You know, help keep the interest. But they want to 439 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 5: track younger fans too, and. 440 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 2: Correct me, it's in Los Angeles. 441 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 5: Next yes, correct, yes, yeah, it'll be big. 442 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 2: You know, it's it's dazzling. In fact, Mayor Hidago out 443 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,200 Speaker 2: today just screaming the politics of France has just been 444 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:26,240 Speaker 2: pushed aside by the joy of this full disclosure. A 445 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 2: Greyfeld sighting at the rock Star seats. She knows like 446 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 2: Sleen I think, I think she's like best buzzs of 447 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 2: Selene Greyfeld sighting. She is in Paris. David Gerr is 448 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,760 Speaker 2: our intermediary here and we believe we may have a 449 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 2: scheduled Griefeld conversation. Catherine Greifeld, surveillance Paris reporter. We're looking 450 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 2: for that Friday. 451 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:54,879 Speaker 5: We're working on it right without the horse, without speaking 452 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 5: of Paris. This kind of brings me into the next one. 453 00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 5: We had. 454 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,080 Speaker 7: Open water swimmers have done it. They have dived into 455 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 7: the Sin River. Paris organizers they said it was safe. 456 00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,200 Speaker 7: They had a two hour training session, they came out 457 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 7: everything was fine. But I mean the women they kick 458 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 7: off that ten kilometer race to starting to one day, 459 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 7: so tomorrow the men's is Friday. The water correctly so 460 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 7: correct correct, But they say the weather is going to 461 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 7: be great for it, so they shouldn't have any problems 462 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 7: with the water and the bacteria levels. But a lot 463 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 7: of swimmers are telling the Associated Press, you know what, 464 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 7: we're still kind of worried. 465 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:33,400 Speaker 5: I don't want to get sick. 466 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 2: Well, I believe a Belgian swimmer was sick, but again 467 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:37,320 Speaker 2: I'm not sure if it. 468 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 5: Was the water correct correct. 469 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,160 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I mean it's going to be pretty 470 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 4: cool that they do it, because I mean the scenery 471 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 4: around that thing went through the capital is pretty awesome. 472 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 2: I mean, I got the Wilburtin swimsuit. I mean, I 473 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,399 Speaker 2: got the fancy, over priced French swims nice and I 474 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 2: can get. I got, I got float I got and 475 00:24:55,520 --> 00:25:00,879 Speaker 2: I got float floaties France gating. You know, goem But 476 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:03,359 Speaker 2: would you, Paul. 477 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 5: I mean they think. 478 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 7: I mean, if they have to do, you got to 479 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:09,840 Speaker 7: test out the current, right, because there's a stronger current. 480 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 6: It's a real current, right, I would. 481 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,120 Speaker 2: I would guess it's an amateur It's not like the Thames. 482 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 2: The London current is you sit on London Bridge after 483 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 2: the third martini and the water's going underneath. 484 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 4: It's like whoa, yep, anyway, good stuff. 485 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,160 Speaker 7: But yeah, so they did it, so we see there 486 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 7: is a backup plan in place in case they do 487 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:29,639 Speaker 7: not test it. 488 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 2: Right. 489 00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 5: The backup plan is that it's a stadium that was 490 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 5: the side of the rowing and the canoeing events. 491 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 7: So that's there, you know, on the ready, just in 492 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 7: case the levels don't work out very well. 493 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 2: Okay, Lisa ma Tello, thank you so much our newspapers 494 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 2: this morning. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you 495 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:53,439 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 496 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 497 00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 498 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 499 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 500 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,200 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, 501 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,600 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.