1 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the 2 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: global economy to you. Now. Listening to this, you might 3 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: have wondered whether we would ever feature a journalist who 4 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: didn't work for Bloomberg. The answer is we'll talk to 5 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: anyone if they're interesting enough, and Martin Wolf of the 6 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: Financial Times definitely fits into that category. He's been the 7 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: Financial Time senior economic commentator for as long as I've 8 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 1: been involved with economics. We even worked together there back 9 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: in the day. What he writes gets read by most 10 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 1: of the people who count, and lately, like a lot 11 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:43,239 Speaker 1: of us, he's found himself writing less about economics and 12 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: more about politics and populism, how it's shaping the economic 13 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: landscape today and what policymakers might do in response. So 14 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 1: I was delighted to have a conversation with him about 15 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: this on stage earlier this week at the Resolution Foundation, 16 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: a London based think tank, at an event organized by 17 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 1: the British Society of Professional Economists. It was such a 18 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: wide ranging chat we decided to devote this program to it. 19 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: I started by pointing out there were quite a lot 20 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: of different definitions of populism out there. For some economists, 21 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: it seemed to be just anything political and non mainstream 22 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: that might cause trouble for others. It was a tool 23 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: kid of techniques for unscrupulous politicians, not really an ideology, 24 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,680 Speaker 1: of course. Marxist would say, it's when the ruling elite 25 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: persuades workers to vote against their own self interest. I 26 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 1: asked Martin which definition of populism he found those useful. 27 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 1: I think there are two ways of thinking about this. 28 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: One is popularism is what politicians whom we everybody would 29 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: agree a populist do, and that's quite a wide range 30 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:02,919 Speaker 1: of things. But I would argue that there is one 31 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: common thread to all populism, be it of the left 32 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:15,920 Speaker 1: or the right, which is the mobilization of people politically, 33 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: often in response to various economic social stresses, against existing elites. 34 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: The essence of the common element of this is anti elitism, 35 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: and that allows you and the policies that are seen 36 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 1: and the systems that are seen as to favoring elites. Um, 37 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 1: that's what populace argue they're doing. So the main point 38 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 1: to make about this is when we think about the 39 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: political direction of an origins of populism, it's very complicated 40 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 1: and you have to anchor your ideas about it. I 41 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 1: think very much in the context of your own society country, 42 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: and work out whether the forces are unleashed here are 43 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 1: on the whole going to prove to be or could 44 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 1: be made beneficial, or going to be utterly destructive of 45 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: existing functioning, valid and important institutions. And there's plenty we 46 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: can unpack on that. But just to insert a few facts, 47 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 1: because I've got economists at my disposal, this is an 48 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:33,799 Speaker 1: audience of economists. They have done various studies thinking about 49 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 1: just what share of G twenty g d P is 50 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: currently in the hands of populist governments, and they actually 51 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 1: have that there's a catchule which as they actually talked 52 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: about populace and non democratic regimes have put them together, 53 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 1: which is startling. But you can also look at the 54 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: populace together, So the populace or non democratic regimes. Even 55 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, about thirty three percent of G twenty 56 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 1: g d P was in the hands of populace or 57 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: non democrats, and that's up from about ten percent around 58 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: the time of the crisis um but most recently it's 59 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: now gone up to sixty eight percent, So sixty eight 60 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: percent of global of G twenty g d P in 61 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 1: the hands of non democratic regimes or populace. Now, of course, 62 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: for our pus of purposes, we might be interested in 63 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:34,359 Speaker 1: just the populace. And that's forty three percent now versus 64 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 1: eight percent. And as if you look at the European elections, 65 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: actually the share of populist parties was a bit smaller, 66 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 1: and the last European that's gone up eight percent. But 67 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: we're still we're talking a sort of slightly smaller number 68 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: when you just look across the European political scene. But 69 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,599 Speaker 1: it is certainly we're not We have not seen what 70 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: I think some people were hoping to see in the 71 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 1: last few years, that somehow there'd been a sort of turnaround, 72 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:03,159 Speaker 1: a peak popularism, the moment that you still haven't seen 73 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 1: a populist government being defeated in subsequent polls. If you 74 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 1: look in the Czech Republic, Romainia, Hungary and Turkey, they've 75 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: all been re elected, which I think is telling. Serrita 76 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 1: is the exception to this, but you can argue that's 77 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 1: because they stopped being very popular they started actually following 78 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: the rules of the system. Um. But this is including 79 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 1: lots of different things in the mix. You know it is, 80 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:33,040 Speaker 1: including Bodemoss and City and Trump, and also the right 81 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: wing populists tend to be a bit Do they include 82 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 1: Modi as a populist? They do, so it's getting part 83 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,559 Speaker 1: of the problem. How are you so I may actually 84 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:46,039 Speaker 1: check that. I'm not sure about Moody. I think we 85 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,119 Speaker 1: have we did. I had debate with them even about Trump, 86 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,159 Speaker 1: because you could argue he's part of a he's in 87 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 1: the mainstream party whether you like it or not, but anyway, 88 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:57,159 Speaker 1: or he's taken over a mainstream party. But that all 89 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 1: does run together a lot of left right wing lists. 90 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 1: And it sort of seems to me that the right 91 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:04,039 Speaker 1: wing populace these days are doing a lot better than 92 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 1: the left wing populace. But does it matter the difference? 93 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 1: Should we think differently about them? Right wing populace will 94 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: emphasize the nation and or the ethnicity against other nations 95 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 1: and ethnic groups, and the left wing political and tends 96 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 1: tends to be conservative and hierarchical within this structure and 97 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: quite happy with extreme inequality as Trump is showing, and 98 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: left wing populace will tend to volk be much more egalitarian, 99 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: as I said, class base and in the Latin American 100 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: history they've had both equally, but in this in European history, 101 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,479 Speaker 1: and particularly in the recent times, the right populace have 102 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 1: basically done much better than the left wing populace. It 103 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 1: is relevant, I mean, when you get onto the differences 104 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,840 Speaker 1: of right and left, obviously, then it becomes relevant for 105 00:06:55,960 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: thinking about whether there could be positive consequences from pulism 106 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 1: or or not. And it did strike me when I 107 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 1: was thinking about this that the populace, when you look 108 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: back in the history, are a bit like that difference 109 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: between freedom fighters and terrorists. It sort of depends on 110 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: whether the system ended up better at the end or not. 111 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: And if we thought that they made the system better, 112 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: as for example, the populace maybe in the late nineteenth century, 113 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 1: and certainly the populist movements in the US which helped 114 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: trigger the New Deal or put pressure to produce the 115 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: New Deal institutions, we look at them and we say, well, 116 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 1: that was kind of good populism. So we think of 117 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: it in a different category, clearly than the populism which 118 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: culminated in national socialism and Hitler's Germany. But that kind 119 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: of gets to this point of is it is it 120 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 1: ultimately about changing the system for the better or fundamentally 121 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: undermining it. And I sort of it feels like the 122 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: jury is the kind of populism we're seeing now seems 123 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 1: to feed on the sort of reduced credibility democratic institutions, 124 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 1: and certainly the case of President Trump often seems to 125 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: revel in that. But it is also, as you say, 126 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: pointing in the direction of some policies that might be 127 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: a good idea. I think the in terms of the 128 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: benefits of actual potential populous pressures, you can perhaps think 129 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 1: about in two possible ways. Historically, so first, in very 130 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 1: dangerous situations where people are very unhappy for very many 131 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: different reasons at different points in history, there have been 132 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: pretty standard democratic politicians who have responded effectively. In the 133 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 1: US case, the two most remarkable cases of the two Roosevelts, 134 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 1: the both potentially in American terms, aristocrats who in the 135 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 1: case of theater or responded to all this upwelling of 136 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: pressure against the trusts and the rest of it to 137 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 1: introduce some really quite rad call antitrust policies particularly and 138 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: other similar things. And then, of course FDRUM. So first 139 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:13,199 Speaker 1: you can have sensible responses by conventional politicians. I think 140 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: the EU has basically handled this terribly because they handled 141 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: the crisis terribly, and that has tended to make the unhappiness. 142 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 1: You know, why do we have Salvini instead of Mario Monty. 143 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 1: There's no surprise about that. Mario Monty was set up 144 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 1: to fail now, So that's one thing. And and the 145 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,680 Speaker 1: worst case of this in the history of the world, 146 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 1: I think is the move. You know, Hitler was in 147 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 1: my view of direct consequence of Brunning. Um, It's quite obvious. 148 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: He was written about this many times. There was no 149 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 1: chance of Hitler winning an election at a mini school 150 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: share of the vote. I think it's about seven percent. 151 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 1: I can't be exactly something like that, and he was 152 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: got a third three years later. Wonder, I mean he can. 153 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: Brunning collapsed in the economy, so the way democratic politicians 154 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 1: respond really really matters. Going for Brexit as a solution 155 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: to all this was insane, but there we are. This 156 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 1: is where we are. The second thing, of course, camp 157 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 1: populists themselves do good things well, it depends on what 158 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 1: you mean by populists. I'm sure if I think hard 159 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,800 Speaker 1: I could think of some examples where populists have tended 160 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: had done well. But the usual problem in the populists 161 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:34,719 Speaker 1: in power is they don't recognize because it's something they 162 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 1: don't trust the elites at all. So they don't trust 163 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: elite mantra about resource limits, budget treat constraints and all 164 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: the rest of it, confidence in business so well that 165 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 1: they basically smashed the economy. I'm trying to think very 166 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: hard of whether there's an obvious case where somebody we'd 167 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 1: all agree was a populist leader really succeeded in leaving 168 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:03,199 Speaker 1: a much stronger economy. They're that person in herit in 169 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,679 Speaker 1: a much stronger society. I think it's rather rare. By 170 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 1: and large, successful reformers, including radical reformers, are far more 171 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: disciplined and self disciplined than populist leaders tend to be. 172 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:20,959 Speaker 1: I guess we get back to that question, that sort 173 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 1: of definition around the tool kit we have if you 174 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:29,199 Speaker 1: do see successful quote unquote mainstream leaders who are successful 175 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,960 Speaker 1: because in a populist era they've borrowed some of the 176 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: clothes or some of the techniques of populism. And in fact, 177 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 1: you might have said that about President Macquin. It made it, 178 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: made it pull off the fantastic trick at least for 179 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 1: a while of making profoundly mainstream centrist policies look exciting 180 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: and radical. Radical. Well FDR was radical. I mean he 181 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 1: busts the gold standard. That's big stuff in America. But 182 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 1: he was radically in an extraordinarily self disciplined or interestingly 183 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 1: disciplined where really great politicians know how to handle these 184 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:07,079 Speaker 1: problems in those situations, and they are unfortunately not that 185 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: common in recent times. They haven't existed in the worst 186 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 1: I think you're right, but I think that's not the 187 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,199 Speaker 1: same to say that there's no populist leader who has 188 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,679 Speaker 1: remained through and through a populist leader that has achieved 189 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 1: a successful change of regime isn't necessarily the kind of 190 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: effect that we're looking for, because it would often be 191 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 1: the case that it's the pressure of populace. Like in Europe, 192 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: you have a lot of you know those whatever it 193 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: is twenty eight percent of Europe of European m EPs. 194 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: They actually don't control the europe Parliament. They contribute to 195 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 1: the fragmenting of the system, but potentially they are also 196 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 1: pushing European political leaders in the direction of some positive things. 197 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:54,319 Speaker 1: That's exactly copied. It's how mainstream politicians respond to populist 198 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: pressures and the recognition by them that there are real 199 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 1: issues that they've got to find clever ways of dealing with, 200 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 1: even if they're radical. Radicalism is not the same as populism. 201 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: And strongly in favor of radicalism, and we obviously need it, 202 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,839 Speaker 1: but we have to have discipline radicalism. The great thing 203 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 1: about the really important performance Swedish social Democrats in that 204 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: the dagger Helllander, for example, probably the most successful reformer, 205 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: was that he throughout that long period of radical reforming Sweden, 206 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,319 Speaker 1: he knew exactly what he was doing and why. If 207 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 1: you look at the main sort of macroeconomic tools that 208 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:35,079 Speaker 1: we have in the world today, the sort of default settings, 209 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 1: if you like, they're remarkably little changed by the global 210 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: financial crisis. Our economists a little bit of fault for 211 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 1: not producing enough ideas that are future. There's plenty of 212 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 1: people running for president on the Democrats side at the 213 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 1: moment who like to think they might be the next FDR. 214 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: You know, you get a lot of explicit references to 215 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 1: new Deal. Are they being given the right kind of 216 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:04,199 Speaker 1: ideas by economists to this into a positive a positive 217 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: event for um and make for populist forces Actually produce 218 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 1: some good on economic policy. I think that we have 219 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 1: been extraordinarily inhibited and conventional in our responses, which doesn't 220 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 1: mean that changing things will be easy, but recognizing there 221 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 1: are some very very big questions and thinking about how 222 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 1: we might handle them, and some of them very uncomfortable 223 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: for me and others. So what are what are the 224 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 1: things that I've been thinking about in the last nine 225 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: years since the crisis or ten years, thank god its 226 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: twelve years now since the gressum So, first of all, 227 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: pretty obviously, I was one of the people and remain 228 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 1: one of the people who think that all countries that 229 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 1: had the means to do had to get back to 230 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: full employment as quickly as possible. Um. Second, I think 231 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: we and I've written this for years, I think that 232 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 1: relying on the central bank just to manipulate financial markets 233 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: rather directly funding government in these situations is ridiculous. The 234 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 1: inhibition on direct monetary financing is ridiculous. I understand the 235 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 1: risks with it, but I think it's perfectly workable in 236 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:34,119 Speaker 1: a recession stroke depression to go for direct monetary financing, 237 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 1: and I think it would have made a difference. I 238 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 1: think we have to think very very seriously about tendencies 239 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: in the market economy towards anti competitive structures. I think 240 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 1: there's a lot of evidence of declining competition, a lot 241 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 1: of evidence in our market economies increased monopolies or quasi monopolies, 242 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 1: A lot of them, of course, of far are in 243 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: American particularly, but I think we have to look at 244 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: that very very carefully, be much more aggressive on that 245 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 1: front um. I think we're going to have to be 246 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 1: very radical on acid ownership. We are getting quite extreme 247 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 1: concentrations of wealth across the world, and we're that's not compatible, 248 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 1: to my mind, with a sustainable democracy. Aristotle said this 249 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 1: I discovered, so that means we're going to have to 250 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 1: be quite radical about distribution of wealth. Income will follow 251 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: from that, but actually I think wealth is quite important. 252 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 1: The right thing to do is for radical parties to 253 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 1: come up with radical ideas. I've been rather depressed by 254 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 1: how limited and ill thought out and ill work through 255 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: such proposals are. In the American case, I think Elizabeth 256 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 1: Warren has been quite interesting. But of course there are 257 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: some things the Americans have to do because what they've 258 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: got is so crazy, like the health system, that we 259 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: don't have to do. But I think overall the reaction 260 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: of policymakers have made this critique in my book, and 261 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 1: these arguments and politicians to the obvious problems of our 262 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:22,160 Speaker 1: societies have been so limited. There's one final issue which 263 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,439 Speaker 1: I have a different view for us, which is I 264 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: think we have to recognize an immigration is a first 265 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 1: class political issue and we can't view it as a 266 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 1: purely economic issue. Now, the question then is what a 267 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:38,679 Speaker 1: sensible immigration policy would look like that is politically acceptable 268 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: and manageable is obviously very very difficult. But pretending that 269 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: this is an issue that can just be looked at 270 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: from the pure labor market point of view is I 271 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: think politically very unwhite. So there are a lot of 272 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 1: big issues out there which the center, if you like 273 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 1: broadly defined, has to grapple with. If we're going to 274 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: have stable democracies, well there's otherwise we get somebody called 275 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: Boris Johnson as for and then what the hell is 276 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:10,640 Speaker 1: going to happen? So you could say this the UK 277 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 1: and Brexit is an example of where we it's it 278 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 1: is this simplistic to only be looking at economic causes 279 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:22,120 Speaker 1: and economic policies. But I think you're you are right 280 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 1: when you look at the future. You know, the perception 281 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: of the response to the financial crisis, and how weighted 282 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 1: that was towards asset markets and how beneficial it was 283 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:36,199 Speaker 1: towards for the wealthy. I think will come back to 284 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: haunt the central bankers when we have the next crisis. 285 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: And I wonder whether you think they're thinking enough about 286 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:44,640 Speaker 1: that that if the first thing they do is resort 287 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: again to quantit of using and the perception of that 288 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 1: is it's giving a lot of money to people who 289 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 1: already have it, who own these assets. Is that going 290 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 1: to cause a further backlash and we will be dealing 291 00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 1: with further consequences of the response to the next crisis. So, 292 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 1: first of all, I think your comment on British policy 293 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:10,920 Speaker 1: is just our personal remark. I think I do accept 294 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: that one of George Osborne's great virtues was that he 295 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 1: ignored what he said, so so he while setting this 296 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: out as a major fiscal crisis, in the end, he 297 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 1: ignored his own rules reasonably successfully. Um I still think 298 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: I still think that he could have done substantially better. 299 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 1: There are other things that have happened since the crisis, 300 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: whose origin who, which I think fall outside this discussion. Um, 301 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 1: which I simply don't understand. The collapse of productivity growth 302 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 1: in the UK is so extreme and I have yet 303 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,400 Speaker 1: to read, and please send me anything that you think 304 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,880 Speaker 1: is relevant a really convincing explanation of why this has 305 00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 1: happened to such an extreme degree in this country. We 306 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 1: jumped from being America to being Italy, as it were, overnight. 307 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 1: It's quite extraordinary. UM. On the future, I think that 308 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:18,679 Speaker 1: the central bankers I know are fairly frightened, but they 309 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:22,119 Speaker 1: vary between being fairly and very frightened about what would happen, 310 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 1: what they would do in another significant crisis or even 311 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:34,440 Speaker 1: another significant recession on a crisis, because their policy toolbox 312 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: is pretty constrained. To put it mildly now, there is 313 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,720 Speaker 1: an argument that if you do enough quee and the 314 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 1: standard kind that can be made the equivalent. But given 315 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: where bondy yields are today, um, where in Germany or 316 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:58,880 Speaker 1: Japan you've got nowhere to go. So in the UK 317 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: you don't have arch the US a little bit more. Um, 318 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:06,680 Speaker 1: you'd have to buy the whole bond stock, and then 319 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: I think you'd have to go and buy pretty good 320 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 1: chunk of the equity stock. I once suggested the Japanese 321 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:19,439 Speaker 1: solution would be to buy the whole dollar bond stock. 322 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 1: If they're going to do kiwi in Japan, the sensible 323 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: thing is not to buy jgbs. But US treasuries just 324 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 1: tweet that Donald Trump, and of course that would solve 325 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,639 Speaker 1: their problems by crashing exchange rate. But it's not, of 326 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,920 Speaker 1: course a generalizable policy, and it would be regarded as 327 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:43,160 Speaker 1: a war, an act of war in fact the Americans. 328 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 1: So I actually think it is almost inconceivable if we 329 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:52,919 Speaker 1: have another big recession in this situation, that we won't 330 00:21:53,160 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 1: end up with some version of helicopter money. Uh. And 331 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 1: as I like to point out, and we've got Steve 332 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 1: Keene talking about people's quie, I think he uses that 333 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 1: right in Francis Coppola. But helicopter money was invented by 334 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:16,160 Speaker 1: Milton Freedment therefore must be respectable, uh, at least from 335 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: the right wing point of view. UM. I don't see 336 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 1: what else we would do in that situation except scatter 337 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:28,920 Speaker 1: money everywhere. UM. I have a colleague who believes passionately 338 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 1: and going to you know, minus six minus seven interest rates. 339 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 1: It's technically possible as long as you completely restructure the 340 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 1: way you do banking and you get rid of all cash. 341 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 1: That's not where we are now, So it's not a 342 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:59,320 Speaker 1: technically possible um policy. So there is a view, and 343 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 1: I've seen an economist, many economists will say, Okay, so 344 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,119 Speaker 1: we have this populist and maybe in the long run 345 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:15,399 Speaker 1: it's going to be the end of the democratic system. 346 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 1: They wouldn't quite put it this way, but maybe in 347 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 1: the long run it's undermining all of our values and 348 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: our institutions and teaching us all the wrong lessons about 349 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 1: what leadership is. But short medium term it produces lucive 350 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 1: fiscal policy and slightly looser monetary policy, with central banks 351 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 1: a bit more aware of the implications of what they're 352 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,120 Speaker 1: doing than they might have been in the past, and 353 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 1: those two things in the current macro environment, and not 354 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,919 Speaker 1: such a bad thing. What would you say about that? 355 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 1: I mean, I would also I would worry a little 356 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: bit about the on the one hand, On the other 357 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 1: hand implicit in that, but just on the second part, 358 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:54,679 Speaker 1: if we're not so worried about the future of the 359 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 1: world and the democracy, well here we're particularly really talking 360 00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:03,480 Speaker 1: about the US. So you can argue, in the real 361 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 1: response to this delusion in France has produced slightly lucif 362 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 1: fiscal doesn't have to be people in very modestly fiscal 363 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 1: policy in Italy because of concern about again very very 364 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: my I mean, the EU is a pretty remarkably so 365 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 1: far this could blow it blow up. I don't know 366 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:26,680 Speaker 1: what's going to happen with Italy, but the Eurozone, let's say, 367 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 1: which is the has produced a remarkably effective straight check it. 368 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 1: So the you know, tant fiscal policy in the last 369 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:40,240 Speaker 1: ten years has been astoundingly disciplined. But in the US 370 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 1: there's a really interesting case because what most of what 371 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 1: people would think of was full employment when they had 372 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,159 Speaker 1: a structural deficit of about three percent of GDP. The 373 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:54,120 Speaker 1: president came along and raised it to five roughly as 374 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 1: a big fiscal expansion by the world's biggest economy, which 375 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,920 Speaker 1: a it has been one of the lowest unemployment rates 376 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:04,440 Speaker 1: in his history, I think the lowest for a half 377 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:08,760 Speaker 1: a century. Though that measurement there is difficult, and he's 378 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 1: browbeating or succeeded in persuading the faith that it's got 379 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,679 Speaker 1: to start losing again. So that's where you are getting 380 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 1: quite a significant expansionary boost there are two or three 381 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:27,119 Speaker 1: questions about this. The first is, of course the way 382 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: the deficit was produced, which is a massively regressive fact 383 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: tax card. When you can discuss that, and whether you 384 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 1: think the corporate that's one question. The second question is 385 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 1: is he actually taking quite a more significant risk of 386 00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 1: inflation than we think now we don't know um. And 387 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:53,399 Speaker 1: the third problem, which is there's something else going on 388 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,119 Speaker 1: which you haven't mentioned, which is really the core of 389 00:25:56,520 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 1: Trance populism as a policy maker, which is he started this, 390 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 1: in my view, completely insane trade war. And and I've 391 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 1: just been looking at just on a lecture this afternoon 392 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 1: to a lot of Chinese people, and I've just had 393 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,440 Speaker 1: one of my charts, and it shows that if at 394 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 1: the end of all this, Mr Trump does impose the 395 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 1: rest of the threat darists on China, and certainly that's 396 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:25,919 Speaker 1: not inconceivable, then the US overall will have an average tariff, 397 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 1: an average tariff, so that because of the tarifties imposed 398 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:33,120 Speaker 1: on China and other countries, which puts in well more 399 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 1: protectionists than India and slightly below Brazil. Now that's a 400 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:42,160 Speaker 1: big deal, right, This is the world's most important economy. 401 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 1: That changes the whole system. Do you think you can 402 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:50,960 Speaker 1: preserve anything alike an open trading system if the US 403 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 1: goes a wall to that degree. So I think people 404 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,880 Speaker 1: who just focus on America, which is basically business, and say, 405 00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,439 Speaker 1: when he's given us this huge tax cuts and I 406 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 1: can increase what I pay myself and my salad, my 407 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 1: shares are worth more, are, to put it mouth in 408 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 1: very short sighted because he's blowing up the parts of 409 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 1: the world system which I regard as beneficial and above 410 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:19,960 Speaker 1: all are very franchile. And that's what US households prospectively 411 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 1: will lose more from the taris. Of course, most Americans 412 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:26,680 Speaker 1: will lose more from the arrists, and they will gain 413 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 1: from the tax cracks. I'm not sure that we've established 414 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 1: whether a populism is the end of all, the salvation 415 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 1: of democracy or either, or maybe the salvation of economics, 416 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 1: even if it's not the salvation of liberal democracy. Thank 417 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:54,199 Speaker 1: you very much everyone for thank you mine, thanks for 418 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,680 Speaker 1: listening to Stephanomics. We'll be back next week with more 419 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 1: on the ground inside into the global economy and more 420 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg porters. In the meantime, you can find us on 421 00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:05,720 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal website, app or wherever you get your podcast. 422 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 1: We'd love it if you took the time to rate 423 00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,399 Speaker 1: and review our show so it can reach more people. 424 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,120 Speaker 1: For more news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics through the week, 425 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,840 Speaker 1: follow at Economics on Twitter, and you can also find 426 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 1: me on at my Stephanomics. This episode was produced by 427 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 1: Magnus Hendrickson, with special thanks to Martin Wolfe and everyone 428 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 1: at the Society of Professional Economists and the Resolution Foundation 429 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 1: for making that conversation possible, especially Katie Abberton, Liberty York 430 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:39,920 Speaker 1: and Kevin Daley. Our executive producer is Scott Landman, and 431 00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 1: the head of Bloomberg Podcast is francescan The