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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot all right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen Cunny centy five thirty thirty five, Hony Cody five

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Speaker 1: fifty and the kick Ass Block the college Football Laura Stunner,

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Speaker 1: Oh my.

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Speaker 2: Goodness, he stumbled, and the lateral turn a counter of

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Speaker 2: the ad.

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Speaker 1: Don't you the lad.

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Speaker 2: Came up the fail to night.

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Speaker 1: By God, it's not the size of the dog in

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Speaker 1: the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Mike Calvaries, and today I am joined by a very

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Speaker 1: special guest. He is one of the Action Network's finest

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Speaker 1: college football analysts. His name is Josh Nunn. And if

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Speaker 1: you're not for million with Josh's work, he specializes in

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Speaker 1: FCS football as well as the Group of Five. But

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Speaker 1: he's going to walk us through everything that he's seeing

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Speaker 1: in terms of the off season futures market. And that's

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Speaker 1: really what's starting to percolate up to the surface. Here

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Speaker 1: we got odds to win conferences, odds to make the

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Speaker 1: college football playoff, and now finally a robust offering of

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Speaker 1: win totals all the way down. The Group of five ladder,

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Speaker 1: So before we get into that, Josh, I also just

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Speaker 1: want to give some information on where people can find you.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned the Action Network app. You're always going to

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Speaker 1: be writing up college football for us. You can also

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Speaker 1: find him in the Action Network app. In terms of

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Speaker 1: tracking his picks, he is under his nickname Duck and

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Speaker 1: you can go ahead and follow him over on Twitter

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Speaker 1: or x at step on a Duck one. A shout

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Speaker 1: out to Rodney Dangerfield for making that joke famous in Caddyshack.

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Speaker 2: Josh, how you doing doing great?

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Speaker 1: Mike?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the season is quickly approaching. We're less than one

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Speaker 2: hundred days away from kickoff. We've had some exciting news

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Speaker 2: in the off season with all of the transfer portal

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Speaker 2: activity that's been going on. It's the highest amount of

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Speaker 2: activity ever for that. And just last night Group of

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Speaker 2: Five regular season with M's totals head dropped. So it's

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Speaker 2: really exciting to dive in and find some value in

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Speaker 2: the win total markets and the derivative markets. At this time.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to ask a question right off the jump

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Speaker 1: here in terms of the futures markets setting these numbers.

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Speaker 1: Sports books are now in this race to be able

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Speaker 1: to post it first and obviously when you do that,

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Speaker 1: you expose yourself a little bit and sharps can come

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Speaker 1: in and hammer a number. Do you think it's even

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Speaker 1: more difficult for both the sports book and the casual

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Speaker 1: fan to keep up with these teams year over year

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Speaker 1: because of such dramatic roster turnover.

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Speaker 2: I certainly do. I think it's a struggle to try

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Speaker 2: to identify exactly what these teams are going to look

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Speaker 2: like year to year. We've seen the trend and the

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Speaker 2: transfer portal, especially at the group of five level, where

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Speaker 2: teams have just been decimated with talent. No longer is

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Speaker 2: the case where you have a great talent at a

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Speaker 2: group of five school that plays for really a legacy

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Speaker 2: year over year, multiple years at one school they're having

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Speaker 2: a standout year and they're jumping ship to the Power five.

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Speaker 2: The nil and the the money and the deals that

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Speaker 2: are out there is really changing the landscape of college football,

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Speaker 2: and the rich are getting richer. So I think it

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Speaker 2: is a little bit more difficult to really identify in

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Speaker 2: these group of five leagues exactly what these teams are

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Speaker 2: going to look like. They're trying to make their best guess.

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Speaker 2: I think the books actually did put out some pretty

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Speaker 2: good numbers on the Power Forward schools. We haven't seen

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Speaker 2: a lot of movement in those regular season wins up

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Speaker 2: to this point, save for maybe Wake Forest in Kentucky.

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Speaker 2: But I think the Group of Five will see a

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Speaker 2: little bit more volatility in those markets.

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Speaker 1: Now you mentioned the G five, you know they're harvested

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Speaker 1: year over year. It's almost like this minor league system

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Speaker 1: for the Power for schools. But there are some G

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Speaker 1: five programs that have made a financial commitment. You'll get

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Speaker 1: the Horseshoe Collective at Boise. They famously were able to

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Speaker 1: keep Ashon Gentzy away from some SEC suitors. He ends

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Speaker 1: up in New York City at the Heisman presentation, and

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Speaker 1: then Memphis has this huge influx of money. When you

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Speaker 1: break it down conference by conference, you usually view one

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Speaker 1: or two schools that financially have a serious advantage over

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Speaker 1: their competition at the G five level.

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Speaker 2: Well, the most staggering one is in Conference USA. Liberty

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Speaker 2: has money, and they spend money, and they've really boughten

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Speaker 2: into making their football team prominent, and they're not afraid

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Speaker 2: to bust out the pocketbooks. So case in point this

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Speaker 2: year with Liberty, I think they're head and shoulders above

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Speaker 2: many of the other teams in Conference USA and should

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Speaker 2: make another run for that league.

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Speaker 1: The one that elements that I'm enamored with year over

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Speaker 1: year is coaching turnover and the domino effect that impacts

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Speaker 1: the G five level because you see a lot of

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Speaker 1: coaches leave very late in a cycle, almost a brand

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Speaker 1: new cycle I'll get through spring. You've seen head coaches

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Speaker 1: leave to become linebacker coaches, or go to the NFL

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Speaker 1: they're sick of the nil grind and not having money

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Speaker 1: to compete, or you just see you know some you

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Speaker 1: know horse trading in terms of assistants moving up to coordinator.

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Speaker 1: Coordinators fit back filling some of these head coaching vacancies.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of moving parts and a big

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Speaker 1: continuity issue for these G five teams. Philosophically, how do

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Speaker 1: you grapple with that With a lot of teams that

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Speaker 1: you may be interested in any either tailing or fading

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five having brand new staffs, well, I.

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Speaker 2: Think it's another effect can comminant to what the transfer

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Speaker 2: portal has opened up. You have not only head coaches

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Speaker 2: that change. In my goodness, we had forty five of

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Speaker 2: them this year in FBS, but you have offensive defensive

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Speaker 2: coordinator positions that change hands, and then those players leave

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Speaker 2: their schools and come to the new place. And when

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Speaker 2: they land, they often bring position coaches with them, and

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Speaker 2: who else do they bring. They bring six or seven

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Speaker 2: of their stud players that were remaining on their side

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Speaker 2: of the bality coach, and those players follow the coordinator

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Speaker 2: to the new school, which just further provokes a shakeup

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Speaker 2: in these rosters. So it's real interesting to dive into

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Speaker 2: the coordinator changes. You'll also find, too, especially at the

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Speaker 2: group of five level, that you might have a coordinator

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Speaker 2: that has a completely different scheme than what the previous

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Speaker 2: regime had ran. So you want to also try to

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Speaker 2: assess if teams have adequate personnel to run the new system,

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Speaker 2: as a lot of these systems are unique. The checks

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Speaker 2: and the keys at the line of scrimmage are a

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Speaker 2: lot different than maybe what players are used to, and

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Speaker 2: it may take a couple of weeks of looking foolish

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Speaker 2: on the field to really grasp what the spirit of

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Speaker 2: the scheme is trying to do on the field.

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Speaker 1: About I want to say ten years ago now is

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Speaker 1: working at NBC Sports and Operations and in the late

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Speaker 1: winter early spring window. I would sit at my desk

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Speaker 1: after I got my work done and just watch spring

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Speaker 1: game cutups, and people would walk by, Oh, what are

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Speaker 1: you watching? Is that a game? Now, that's a practice.

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Speaker 1: Oh you're clearly disturbed. You are a sicko watching these practices.

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Speaker 1: But you could actually glean so much from those situations

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Speaker 1: if you were looking at the right matchups, if you're

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Speaker 1: looking at quarterback battles, or you know, new offensive philosophies,

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Speaker 1: defensive philosophies. But that's almost been stripped away from the

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Speaker 1: college game in this modern anil transfer portal era because

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Speaker 1: people don't want the word to get out that, oh,

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Speaker 1: this guy who's second or third on my depth chart

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Speaker 1: actually has speed to burn. He's going to be the

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Speaker 1: next big thing for us. Well, schools can come in,

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Speaker 1: offer him a bag and say, why don't you be

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Speaker 1: a big thing this fall instead of sitting on the

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Speaker 1: shelf an additional year. How do you compete with the

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Speaker 1: issue of information and the lack thereof when it comes

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Speaker 1: to spring games, when it comes to videos of practices,

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Speaker 1: anything like that that you probably used in previous seasons

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Speaker 1: to be able to build some of your intel in

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Speaker 1: the all season.

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Speaker 2: It's a great question, dynamic question. It's really unfortunate because

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Speaker 2: this really started to take off a couple of years ago,

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Speaker 2: where teams were putting their spring games on teat national TV,

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Speaker 2: and then almost immediately after the conclusion of the spring game,

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Speaker 2: you'd see that these players were entering the portal and

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Speaker 2: they had a landing spot almost immediately. And so coaches

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Speaker 2: have decided to shake up their spring rhythm, and they've

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Speaker 2: already a lot of places have changed the complexity of

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Speaker 2: what the spring game looks like as well, and it

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Speaker 2: doesn't hardly even resemble football anymore. I mean, my goodness,

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Speaker 2: two years ago and last year we had forty to

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Speaker 2: fifty spring games that were televised. This year it was twelve,

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Speaker 2: and so it's really dying off. I used to love

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Speaker 2: really tuning into spring games because it was just myself

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Speaker 2: the notebook, and I could just sit in quiet for

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Speaker 2: two hours and really hone in on what I saw

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Speaker 2: on the field with the spirited competition that actually resembled football.

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Speaker 2: But I'm here to tell you that is going away quickly,

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Speaker 2: and it is really sad for my preparation. So I'm

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Speaker 2: really having to try to prepare in new ways, and

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to have to obtain information other ways because

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Speaker 2: relying on the spring game as kind of a cliff

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Speaker 2: Notes cheat sheet is no longer something I'm able to

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Speaker 2: do with most of the teams.

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Speaker 1: Without access or Crystal Ball to figure out what these

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Speaker 1: depth charts are going to look like, true understanding of

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Speaker 1: how these rosters are going to shake out. You're not

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Speaker 1: operating purely in the dark, but obviously you have to

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Speaker 1: rely a bit more on your instinct and kind of

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Speaker 1: your overall strategy. So when you look to build your

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Speaker 1: full portfolio of offseason win totals and teams to win

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Speaker 1: their respective conferences or make the College fo ball playoffs,

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Speaker 1: where are you looking to attack first to kind of

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Speaker 1: build that foundation.

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Speaker 2: Well, really that's driven by what markets are released, But

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Speaker 2: I think that the first thing that you have to

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Speaker 2: do is you have to assess in your preparation how

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Speaker 2: much time you're going to dedicate to really diving into

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Speaker 2: the rosters line by line. There are sites out that

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Speaker 2: are out there that are available that are tracking the

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Speaker 2: portal moves, and there are some that have also created

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Speaker 2: a kind of a pseudo two D for each side

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Speaker 2: of the ball, and so you really can get a

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Speaker 2: feel for the returning players that have been there along

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Speaker 2: with people that are transferring in to try to piece

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Speaker 2: meal together what these teams may look like. It really

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Speaker 2: makes a difference with the most important position on the field,

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Speaker 2: which is quarterback, how the offensive and defensive lines are

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Speaker 2: shaking out, what players were added in the skill positions,

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Speaker 2: how the secondary looks. All things that are prerequisites to

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Speaker 2: doing research anyway. But from there, what I'm trying to

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Speaker 2: assess is kind of conference by conference where these teams

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Speaker 2: are staging themselves to jockey for position and where they

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Speaker 2: might have an edge over the rest of their competition.

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Speaker 2: And we saw, especially with the regular season wins. For

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Speaker 2: years and years in gambling, we would see that the

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Speaker 2: regular season's win market, regular season wins market was released

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Speaker 2: in Vegas, always around Memorial Day, and you'd have the

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Speaker 2: casinos that would lay those out. Well, it's crazy. This

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Speaker 2: year we had regular season wins two weeks after the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl, and so there was really an opportunity to

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Speaker 2: dive into the power for and really assess what those

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Speaker 2: numbers look like. The only problem was those regular season

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Speaker 2: wins were released and we still had a whole nother

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Speaker 2: transfer portal window, and so it was really hard for

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Speaker 2: me to do a lot of assessment on a win

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Speaker 2: total for those programs when we still had players that

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Speaker 2: were changing hands. So I took a pause on that.

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Speaker 2: I still did deep dive the rosters, and just took

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Speaker 2: kind of a pause on trying to fire away on

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Speaker 2: any regular season wins. But the second most critical thing,

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Speaker 2: and it cannot be overlooked, is you've got to dive

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Speaker 2: into the schedule line by line. There's a whole piece

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Speaker 2: we could do on that, but diving into the schedule

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Speaker 2: and really assessing what you see and trying to find

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Speaker 2: those different scheduling spots is so critically important when you're

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Speaker 2: talking about a twelve game regular season win sample size.

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Speaker 1: When you look at this year over year. Having done

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Speaker 1: this for a long time and made your own personal

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Speaker 1: bets before you were advocating on the Action Network for

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Speaker 1: where to place your money in the offseason, you have

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Speaker 1: to agree that there's always a bit of a bias

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Speaker 1: for overs. No one is looking to tie up their

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Speaker 1: money from a casual perspective through for things not to happen.

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Speaker 1: I think it's just human nature, and certainly in the

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Speaker 1: transfer portal era, nearly every school has something to be

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Speaker 1: excited about, some new skill position toy to be able

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Speaker 1: to unleash on their conference, a transfer quarterback, a new

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Speaker 1: offensive system. So, in your opinion, do these numbers buy

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Speaker 1: and large? I understand you got to go through on

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Speaker 1: a case by case basis, but by and large they

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Speaker 1: skew a little bit to the over and makes you

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Speaker 1: a contrariant targeting more unders than overs.

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Speaker 2: Really true, your words have never been spoken, and I

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Speaker 2: think we see that in a lot of different betting markets,

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Speaker 2: even outside of college football, where people will root for

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Speaker 2: their favorite team or the better perceived better team in

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Speaker 2: the favorite and also high scoring or for teams to

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Speaker 2: be successful. So you do pay a small premium that's

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Speaker 2: maked in for betting the favorite and also betting on

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Speaker 2: the over. And so what I have found as well,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot more involved with the mathematics. But the

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Speaker 2: poor man's math is you can add up all the

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Speaker 2: regular season win numbers and try to create a path

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Speaker 2: for each team to go over, and there's just simply

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Speaker 2: not enough games. There's a small percentage that's baked in

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Speaker 2: and shaded to the over could be in the juice

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Speaker 2: could be in the number itself, but ninety percent of

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Speaker 2: my regular season win plays over the last ten years

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Speaker 2: have been on teams to finish under their projected win total.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of value in this emerging

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Speaker 2: market with regular season wins. I love the fact that

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Speaker 2: the regular season wins derivative market has exploded in popularity,

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Speaker 2: and I find that there's a lot of value in

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Speaker 2: finding teams that are going through positional turmoil, that have

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Speaker 2: had coaching changes, that have quirky spots in their schedule,

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Speaker 2: and there are just some things to identify that often

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Speaker 2: can get overlooked that can create in season friction for teams.

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Speaker 2: Oftentimes those teams result in going under their posted win total.

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Speaker 1: And when it comes to shopping around, something we stress

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Speaker 1: consistently throughout the regular season and the off season, books

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Speaker 1: just they hang different numbers, and obviously their job is

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Speaker 1: not to predict exactly what's going to happen. Their job

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Speaker 1: is to get equal action on both sides of a bet.

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Speaker 1: So because of that, you can see a five and

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Speaker 1: a half or six or sometimes a six and a

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Speaker 1: half across a market on a team that's kind of

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Speaker 1: a fringe bowl team, So how much work do you

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Speaker 1: put in in grabbing the best number and then when

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Speaker 1: it comes to, you know, finally grabbing one on either

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Speaker 1: end of the spectrum, whether you feel it's overpriced or

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Speaker 1: underpriced by a game half a game, how often you

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Speaker 1: then start to target some of those hedge opportunities where

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Speaker 1: a season may come down to one game that you

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Speaker 1: have circled, maybe on their conference schedule, and then all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, you know that's you're out if you're

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Speaker 1: not liking the way that it's looking, or you could

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Speaker 1: double down if it's going in the opposite direction. Basically

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Speaker 1: looking for those opportunities to mitigate risk and to maximize profit.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's really hugely, critically important, and you touched on

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Speaker 2: one specific thing, which is trying to put yourself in

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Speaker 2: the best situation possible to succeed by getting the best

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Speaker 2: number at the best odds week to week. This is

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Speaker 2: critically important and it's also important regular season wins. Here

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Speaker 2: at the Action Network, we certainly advocate for that. We

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Speaker 2: provide odds comparison tools to provide our following to be

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Speaker 2: in situations to be successful. And it's the quickest and

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Speaker 2: easiest thing that you can do as a sports better

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Speaker 2: to increase your ROI year over year. It takes very

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Speaker 2: little talent, just takes a little bit of time to

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Speaker 2: perform that. So I would encourage anybody shop around, get

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Speaker 2: yourself in the best position to be successful, have several opportunities,

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Speaker 2: don't just limit yourself to one shop. Specifically when it

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Speaker 2: comes to regular season wins. You will still find some

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Speaker 2: inefficiencies in the market from book to book, and there

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Speaker 2: are oftentimes. One example right now is wake Forest. Their

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Speaker 2: regular season win total over under is four and a half.

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Speaker 2: Not a recommendation, but if you wanted to bet over,

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Speaker 2: that price is anywhere from minus one fifteen to minus

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Speaker 2: one thirty five, and the difference in the vig that

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Speaker 2: you're laying in that wager is hugely different. Between those

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Speaker 2: two numbers. You have to win so many more wagers

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Speaker 2: at minus one thirty five or minus one forty to

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Speaker 2: break even as opposed to minus one point fifteen. So

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Speaker 2: I would recommend that you figure out a way to

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Speaker 2: calculate that math or understand how the mathematics works, and

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Speaker 2: get yourself in a position to get the most favorable odds.

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Speaker 2: The other thing that I will look at from time

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Speaker 2: to time, depending on the play that I'm looking to make.

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Speaker 2: When it comes to a regular season win wager is

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Speaker 2: oftentimes books will have variance in the actual number. This

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Speaker 2: is critically important in college football. The reason why there's

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Speaker 2: only twelve games in the regular season. This is not

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Speaker 2: an MLB regular season win total that's ninety three and

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Speaker 2: a half or ninety four or ninety two and a half,

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Speaker 2: where it really may not make that much of a

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Speaker 2: difference over one hundred and sixty two games. There's twelve

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Speaker 2: games and a half. A win either way can improve

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Speaker 2: your position on the wager by about eight percent or so,

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Speaker 2: and so it's really important to try to identify if

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Speaker 2: the math works in your favor. I personally value a

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Speaker 2: half a win at about sixty or seventy cents. So

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Speaker 2: if I can get under five and a half at

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Speaker 2: minus one twenty, and if I can get under six

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Speaker 2: at minus one sixty five or so, that under six

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Speaker 2: is a better wager in my opinion, because that difference

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Speaker 2: in the fig is less than sixty cents, so I'm

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Speaker 2: going to take under six. I also find that that

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00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:30,680
Speaker 2: gets magnified. The value gets magnified, specifically in regular season

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Speaker 2: wins of four and a half, five and a half,

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Speaker 2: and six and a half. Why would that be, Well,

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Speaker 2: those are fringe teams that are competing for a bowl game,

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Speaker 2: and so you're finding that that half a win can

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Speaker 2: really be something that's in your favor to have half

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Speaker 2: a win up on the under and half a win

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Speaker 2: down on the over when you have teams that are

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Speaker 2: competing for bowl eligibility in the second, third, fourth to

350
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Speaker 2: last week of the season and then fighting for it

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Speaker 2: in that last week of the season. So there are

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Speaker 2: definitely situations that I see a lot of value in

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Speaker 2: paying a little more juice to get that half win

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Speaker 2: when it comes to regular season wins, when you.

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Speaker 1: Look at teams coming off outlier years, whether it was

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame making it all the way to the College

357
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Speaker 1: Baball and national championship and also being one of the

358
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Speaker 1: most public teams in all of sports, or in the

359
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Speaker 1: opposite direction, a team like Florida State bottoming out essentially

360
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Speaker 1: getting in a position where they had a clean house

361
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Speaker 1: with a lot of their assistants, they had to move

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Speaker 1: in a different direction. That hangover effect from what Georgia

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Speaker 1: did against them in that bowl game. After the College

364
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 1: too ball playoff snub. They never got off the map,

365
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Speaker 1: They never recovered. But in terms of the market, do

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Speaker 1: you see an overreaction to these outlier seasons, whether it's

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Speaker 1: a team really overachieving or a team really going in

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Speaker 1: the opposite direction.

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Speaker 2: I generally do. Our friends Ducky has said it for

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Speaker 2: years that you're betting on eighteen to twenty two year

371
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Speaker 2: old kids, and they play with an oddly shaped ball,

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Speaker 2: and sometimes the bounces go your way for the course

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Speaker 2: of an entire season. Sometimes it goes against you. And

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Speaker 2: I do find that teams that have extreme outlier seasons

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Speaker 2: generally will regress back to the mean. It may not

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Speaker 2: be a full regression year one, but they will creep

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Speaker 2: down towards that middle of their performance level, unless a

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Speaker 2: program has just completely elevated and changed their entire situation,

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Speaker 2: which can happen, but it's rare. Specific to the G

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Speaker 2: five level. This year, a team that I think could

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Speaker 2: be in a position such as that as Washington State.

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Speaker 2: They went on a really big tear last year, playing

383
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Speaker 2: a favorable schedule that included the agreement with the Mountain

384
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Speaker 2: West to play Mountain West teams. They rattled off several wins.

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Speaker 2: There was even some crazy talk about them making the

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Speaker 2: playoff before they stubbed their toe against New Mexico and

387
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Speaker 2: Wyoming late in the season. They had a dynamic offense

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Speaker 2: and an exceptional player at quarterback and John Mattier. Well,

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Speaker 2: what happens this year? The regime has gone and off

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Speaker 2: to Wake Forest. A lot of the players have transferred out,

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Speaker 2: specifically Matier going to Oklahoma. They add an FCS head

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Speaker 2: coaching staff and twenty four to twenty five FCS players

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Speaker 2: within the two deep. Well, that talent level top to

394
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Speaker 2: bottom for Washington State has just now dropped a notch.

395
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Speaker 2: The other thing that you have with Washington State is

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Speaker 2: they're playing a true independent schedule and you can go

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Speaker 2: through it and look line by line, but there's no

398
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Speaker 2: conference affiliation. They're playing a home and home with Oregon

399
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,240
Speaker 2: State to just try to fill the games. They have

400
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,919
Speaker 2: a crazy travel schedule where they have to go to

401
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,960
Speaker 2: Colorado State, they go to North Texas, they go to

402
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Speaker 2: Ole Miss and Virginia back to back, and then they

403
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,480
Speaker 2: still go way out east to James Madison late in

404
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Speaker 2: the season. I'll tell you what, man, when I go

405
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Speaker 2: on vacation and I'm traveling somewhere and I come home,

406
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Speaker 2: I'm tired. And to do that five or six times

407
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 2: on those long road trips is just taxing on your

408
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,439
Speaker 2: mental fortitude and it's taxing on your body. And so

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Speaker 2: I think Washington State could be one of those teams

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Speaker 2: where you might see some of that regression because the

411
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Speaker 2: talent is less, the schedule sets up unfavorably, it might

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Speaker 2: be a tough year for the Googs up there in Pullman.

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Speaker 1: You talked about Wazoo losing so much in terms of

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Speaker 1: their identity and their star players. Returning production is something

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Speaker 1: that Bill Conley has banged that drum for years over

416
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Speaker 1: at ESPN. He's built out one of the cornerstone metro

417
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Speaker 1: that people really follow. And in the nil Transfer Portal era,

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Speaker 1: there's just less and less continuity. But when you break

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Speaker 1: it down under the hood, specifically, what are you valuing

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Speaker 1: more in terms of returning production? Is a quarterback play?

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Speaker 1: Is it offensive line starts? Maybe continuity between the quarterback,

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Speaker 1: the head coach, and the play color or are there

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Speaker 1: any other specific stats that I haven't mentioned yet.

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Speaker 2: I'm really glad you brought that up. So broad brush

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Speaker 2: painting here to answer this question, is depending on who

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Speaker 2: is doing the returning production or the tarp metric for

427
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Speaker 2: the adding and the transfers. People can weigh these metrics

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Speaker 2: different ways, generally just specific to offense. They'll take in

429
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Speaker 2: a quarterback and what was the percentage of that team's

430
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Speaker 2: passing yards that were returning. On the offensive line, it

431
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 2: was the total percentage of snaps that are returning for

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Speaker 2: wide receivers and tight ends percentage of receiving yards returning.

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Speaker 2: And then with the running backs, it's the total percentage

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Speaker 2: of rushing yards returning. And you can weigh those at

435
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 2: different levels depending on how important you feel those are,

436
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Speaker 2: and then you aggregate the numbers out and you get

437
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 2: your offensive returning production. Now, I think that there is

438
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 2: some varying theory on that because there are some positions

439
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 2: that could be easier to absorb losses on than others.

440
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 2: And the transfer portal also creates an opportunity where you

441
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 2: may lose a really explosive, dynamic player who filled up

442
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 2: the stat sheet and you may replace him with someone else.

443
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 2: And even if that player didn't specifically perform, say at

444
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 2: the Power four level, they may have exceptional talent and

445
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 2: they will perform at the G five, so you can

446
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 2: kind of play with the modeling on how you want

447
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:36,159
Speaker 2: to weigh those numbers. Generally, for me, you cannot understate

448
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 2: the importance of the offensive line, which is the heartbeat

449
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 2: of the offense. You can't do anything if your offensive

450
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 2: line has no continuity. If they can't run, block, if

451
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 2: they cannot pass protect, if they can't check at the

452
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage, the offense is just not going to

453
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 2: work fluidly. And so I really do focus on continuity

454
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,920
Speaker 2: on the offensive line, and on the flip side, where's

455
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 2: the continuity on the defensive front seven? If you have

456
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 2: a team that has had even or above performance in sacks,

457
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 2: tackles for loss, other havoc numbers such as QB pressures,

458
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 2: tackles behind the line of scrimmage or for no gain,

459
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 2: and all of that performance is gone, and then as

460
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 2: a group of five teams you're backfilling your talent with

461
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 2: fringe players or fcs talent. Man that defensive havoc in

462
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 2: the front seven is going to take a significant step back.

463
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 2: And if you're playing solid running teams week after week

464
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 2: after week, you're going to take a pounding and that

465
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:30,920
Speaker 2: defense is going to fade fast, and so those are

466
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,479
Speaker 2: opportunities that might be a little bit more in that

467
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 2: second or third level of your research, where you can

468
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 2: try to identify teams that might get tired, and sometimes

469
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 2: teams don't have a buy until week seven or eight,

470
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: and so they run out of gas. And what ends

471
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 2: up happening in the regular season win market specifically, is

472
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,680
Speaker 2: you can identify a game on paper where a team

473
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 2: should win, but when you look at the opponents the

474
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 2: scheme change or the personnel change, they're going to be

475
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,400
Speaker 2: gassed and you flip that to a loss, and that

476
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 2: right there is the value needed in order to make

477
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 2: a position on a regular season win.

478
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned a few different scheduling quirks. Whether it's

479
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 1: the body blow theory from Bruce Feldman, whether it's the

480
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 1: old letdown look ahead Samwich shout out to the solid

481
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: verbal and those guys pushing that narrative for years. Is

482
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 1: there anything else in terms of travel or particular windows

483
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 1: short rest that peak your interest that may be a

484
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 1: bit of a new wrinkle in the last few years

485
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 1: of college football that we've been seen.

486
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 2: Yet there are and a lot of the scheduling spots

487
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 2: could be considered old news. You can identify sandwich spots

488
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 2: pretty easily. There was probably no bigger sandwich spot last

489
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 2: year than when Northern Illinois traveled to the Cathedral and

490
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 2: squeezed in a game with Notre Dame when Notre Dame

491
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 2: was off a big game and then on the road

492
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 2: again for another big game, and what happened. Northern Illinois

493
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 2: won the game. On the field is thirty two point underdogs.

494
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 2: It doesn't always work out that magically, but you can

495
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 2: find teams that might have a rival on look ahead

496
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 2: or a lesser known rival, or they might have to

497
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 2: travel to a service academy and maybe sneak in some

498
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 2: prep or which can affect in the week before. Maybe

499
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 2: they go to Hawaii. Maybe they're doubling back from Hawaii,

500
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 2: and so there's those sandwich spots that can definitely be tricky.

501
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 2: Teams that are on back to backs, or a team

502
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,640
Speaker 2: that might be on the road, have a bye on

503
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 2: the road again, they're not playing at home for a month.

504
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 2: What can that do for their specific psyche. There are

505
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 2: also unique situations, maybe twice a season, where a team

506
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:30,919
Speaker 2: will be playing the late window on Saturday, let's say

507
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 2: ten o'clock Eastern and then they've got a double back

508
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 2: for a Thursday spot. Well, what that does is creates

509
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 2: compression in your prep time, in your body recovery time,

510
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 2: and there are situations where those teams don't perform as well.

511
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 2: One interesting schedule circumstance that I've identified this year will

512
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 2: just throw on out there is Akron. If you look

513
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 2: at the Akron schedule, they don't have a bye week

514
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: until November first, and furthermore, their season concludes November eighteenth,

515
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 2: earlier than anyone else an FBS. And so if you're

516
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 2: trying to assess what Akron's going to be this year,

517
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 2: you can kind of go through and assess percentage likelihood

518
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 2: that they may win certain games. But if they're sitting

519
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 2: there at two and five and then they've got to

520
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 2: go to Ball State and then go to Buffalo, what's

521
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 2: their psyche? They can't make the postseason. If they were

522
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,120
Speaker 2: to be two and five, they're not winning the MAC.

523
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 2: There's no real preseason goals to play for. They really

524
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: want to go on the road and compete against those

525
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 2: ascending teams in conference play and then double back for

526
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: your final three games where you're playing for nothing. Probably

527
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 2: not a good mental situation. For Akron. Given the scheduling

528
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 2: circumstances and no buy week until November first, just want

529
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 2: to maybe file away in the back pocket for later.

530
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: Underdog is one of the best plays to make picks

531
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538
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547
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549
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553
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555
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560
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561
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562
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Speaker 1: and Why. All right, Josh, we've done enough of the

563
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 1: table setting. We've talked, you know, broad strategies, We've talked

564
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 1: about some of the changing landscape of college football and

565
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 1: how to navigate this lack of information and the value

566
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: of being able to pull out certain nuggets with the schedule.

567
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 1: Let's get it into practice. How are you going to

568
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:33,399
Speaker 1: go ahead and employ some of these strategies and insights

569
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 1: into the twenty twenty five season. We have five futures,

570
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: three from you, two for me that we're going to

571
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,360
Speaker 1: break into. They're not all G five specific, but we're

572
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 1: going to start with University of Nevaderrino the wolf Pack.

573
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on their chances this fall?

574
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 2: Oh last year, you could argue that through the first

575
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 2: five or six weeks of the season, there was really

576
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 2: no bigger surprise in college football than you n are.

577
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 2: They were against the spread darlings. They had some exquisite

578
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 2: performancescifically on defense. That Week zero game, where they had

579
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 2: hosted SMU, they ended up being twenty eight and a

580
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 2: half point underdogs and they were up by sixteen in

581
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter before a collapse where they did not

582
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 2: win the game on the field. But Nevada had several

583
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 2: strong performances early in the season. They were covering against

584
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 2: the spread numbers, and it was really specifically due to

585
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,959
Speaker 2: the play of their elite secondary, and they had some

586
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 2: real surprising talent in the secondary. Well, all that secondary

587
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 2: is gone. They're losing a lot of the top players

588
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 2: that are playing in the defensive secondary. It was a

589
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 2: team that really struggled late in the season to secure

590
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 2: any sort of defensive pressure against opposing quarterbacks. The SAC

591
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 2: and tackle for lost numbers returning are really down, and

592
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 2: I really struggled to get excited about this team from

593
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 2: an offensive perspective as well. Brandon Lewis is no longer here.

594
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 2: He transferred to Memphis, so you're relying on Cuba Purdy

595
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 2: or aj Bianco. Those two quarterbacks really just do not

596
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 2: wow me. They did bring in some FCS talent along

597
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 2: the offensive line to shore up the left side of

598
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 2: the offensive line, certainly going to take some time to

599
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 2: really work out some kinks there with players that are

600
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: playing up in competition. Nevada loses their top four rushers

601
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 2: from last season's team, so the offensive rushing production is

602
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 2: way down. Just not a lot really there that I'm

603
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 2: really excited about for Nevada. And then when you look

604
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 2: at the position battles on all three levels of the defense,

605
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 2: there is a lot that is going to have to

606
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 2: be shaken out for Nevada to even try to compete

607
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 2: in the level of football that they play. I was

608
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 2: really surprised when we saw the regular season win released

609
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 2: for Nevada at four and a half. I was thinking

610
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 2: when I was shoring up my notes on Nevada that

611
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 2: we'd see a three and a half or a four tops,

612
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,719
Speaker 2: at which point I was ready to go under. It

613
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 2: almost appears as though the oddsmen are baking in an

614
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 2: FCS win here, But I'm here to tell you this

615
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 2: after a roadie at Penn State and Happy Valley where

616
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 2: they're probably going to get beat up pretty physically, Nevada

617
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 2: has to then double back for sax State. You've been

618
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 2: following anything in the FCS level. Sack State made a

619
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 2: real buzz in hiring Brandon mary And from UNLV, and

620
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 2: they've got fifty transfer players on their roster and they've

621
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: really beefed up to make a run in FCS this season.

622
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 2: That is anything but a sure to win for on Nevada,

623
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 2: and that'll be a real close, hard fought game. You

624
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,479
Speaker 2: have to assume Sacramento State is showing up for that

625
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 2: FBS competition. Nevada has also been a team against FCS

626
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 2: fos where they've played with their food a bit and

627
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 2: even lost against FCS competition, so there's no shared win

628
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 2: there with Sack State. A couple of Conference USA teams

629
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 2: that are going to be challenges, I'd say. And then

630
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 2: one thing that I look at is the schedule, and

631
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: I want a factor in who Nevada is playing and

632
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 2: where these teams are at in the schedule. Well, they've

633
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: got the top four in Mountain West Play projected top

634
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 2: four teams Fresno State, Boise State, San Jose State, and

635
00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 2: UNLV all on the schedule. They've got some tougher road

636
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 2: games at Utah State and at Wyoming, and there's just

637
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 2: really not a lot to draw from. We talked about

638
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 2: the mentality of a team and where they might be.

639
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 2: I could see this team starting two and five, two

640
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 2: and six, and then you've got a roadie at Utah State,

641
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 2: and then you're not gonna make a bowl game, You're

642
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 2: not playing for any conference championship. Where's your mentality at

643
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 2: when you have to go on the road at Wyoming

644
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 2: and then their last game of the season, they'll probably be,

645
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 2: I don't know, eighteen to twenty one point underdogs against

646
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 2: UNLV in a game that they really shouldn't compete in.

647
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 2: I just don't see a lot of assured wins on

648
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 2: the UNR schedule this season. I see them as being

649
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 2: an underdog a significant underdog, which I would quantify as

650
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 2: double digit underdog in at least seven games. I've got

651
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 2: them favored in two or three. So to get under

652
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 2: four and a half, I think is a real solid

653
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 2: value play, and it gives you an extra game to

654
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 2: play with. So I did take out a position on

655
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 2: Nevada under four and a half regular season wins.

656
00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, when I saw this on your sheet, my first

657
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 1: thought was, I like this coaching staff. Let me dig

658
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 1: into the schedule, and then very quickly it becomes clear

659
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,959
Speaker 1: there's no room for airror and some of their you know,

660
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 1: most likely wins in conference, they're all on the road.

661
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 1: I understand New Mexico is in a rebuild, they lose

662
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 1: Devon Dan Pier, they lose their coaching staff. You still

663
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 1: got to go on the road and win. And you

664
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: add in Utah State, as you mentioned that Wyoming game,

665
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 1: I think could end up being the difference in one

666
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 1: direction or another. And to get them on November twenty second,

667
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 1: you figure whether it's going to be an issue there

668
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 1: in Lardice. It's gonna be windy, it's gonna be cold.

669
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 1: There's probably gonna be some snow in there as well.

670
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 1: So if you are relying on Purdy to carry this offense.

671
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 1: I could see it getting really hairy for the Wolfpack.

672
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: So you've convinced me on this, after you know, diving

673
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 1: into the fundamentals of this underplay, I'm gonna come with

674
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 1: one here. That's a two for one in terms of

675
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 1: my recommendation. Southern miss. Their win total just popped. It's

676
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 1: four and a half minus one fifteen over at DraftKings

677
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: go ahead to hit the over there. Also love them.

678
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 1: It's one of my favorite long shot G five Conference

679
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 1: winner bets twenty five to one to win the Sun Belt.

680
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 1: And let's start with this dramastic, dramatic roster overhaul. This

681
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: team was an absolute tire fire under Will Hall. I

682
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 1: believe he went four and fifteen in his last nineteen games,

683
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 1: doesn't even get to coach out the rest of his

684
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: season in twenty twenty four, gets fired, They clean house,

685
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 1: and they go ahead and they poach Charles Huff from Marshall. Now,

686
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 1: this is a guy that not only won the Sun

687
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 1: Belt last year, but also beat Notre Dame on the

688
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 1: road a few years back as well. The guy is

689
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 1: an incredible coach who's a Nick Saban protege and Marshall

690
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 1: just couldn't open up their wallet and pay him enough

691
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 1: money to stay. And Southern miss got an incredible deal.

692
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 1: It's not like they doubled or triple his salary. I

693
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 1: believe in terms of base salary, they just increased it

694
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 1: by about two hundred thousand dollars a year. Now it

695
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 1: is incentive laden and he can hit a bunch of

696
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 1: bonuses and he had a larger pool for his assistance.

697
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 1: But I think they got an incredible deal. And not

698
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 1: only do they get Charles hung but of those thirty

699
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 1: six transfers that came in, about half or from that

700
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 1: Marshall team that as I mentioned, just won the belt,

701
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,360
Speaker 1: and it includes Josh Moden, who was a four star recruit.

702
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 1: He could have gone basically to any school outside of

703
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 1: maybe five to ten in terms of the entire country.

704
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: He is a starter. He's someone who's going to probably

705
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 1: be a fourth fifth sixth round NFL draft pick, depending

706
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 1: on how he tests out physically at the combine. To

707
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 1: get him on this team right away is going to

708
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: shore up a defense that had real issues in their secondary.

709
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 1: But the headline here is quarterback play and bringing in

710
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 1: the newcomer of the year in the Sun Belt and

711
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 1: bringing Brayalen Braxon and a coaching staff with him. I

712
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 1: just see everything trending up for a Southern Miss offense

713
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: that has been a disaster for years. You have to

714
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 1: go back to Nick Mullen the last time someone threw

715
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,839
Speaker 1: for twenty plus touchdowns for the Golden Eagles to put

716
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 1: in perspective. Last year, both Army and Navy individually threw

717
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 1: for more passing touchdowns out of those traditional triple option attacks.

718
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 1: So they are absolutely at the bobbom under the barrel.

719
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 1: But this kid comes in with a nineteen to two

720
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 1: touchdown interception ratio. He won every single game that he

721
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: started last year. His confidence is brimming. And then you

722
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:12,240
Speaker 1: also bring in Blake Anderson back into the Sun Belt.

723
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 1: He was someone who was terminated at Utah State, but

724
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 1: it seems like there's more to that story than it

725
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 1: was initially reported. It was an ugly split. It was

726
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 1: a Title nine violation related to not properly reporting a

727
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 1: sexual assault involving one of the players. Well, since that's happens,

728
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,399
Speaker 1: he's done a lot to rehab his image, and he's

729
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 1: also filed a lawsuit against the school seeking fifteen million

730
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 1: dollars in a wrongful termination suit. It's my belief and

731
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 1: I'm not a legal expert, but I'm just saying a

732
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: lot of coaches that would have ended their career fully.

733
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 1: So once again, Southern mis gets an opportunity for, at

734
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: least on the field between the lines, an incredible offensive

735
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 1: mind to guide this offense. So I think the issue

736
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 1: here is that the public perception is they look at

737
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 1: how bad Southern miss was last year, one of the

738
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 1: worst teams in all of FBS, and they're figuring, you know,

739
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,400
Speaker 1: how much can they improve year over year? The talent fusion,

740
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 1: the coaching infusion. I didn't even mention on the defensive

741
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,839
Speaker 1: side of the ball. Jason Seymour is a rising story,

742
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 1: a defensive coordinator, and in addition to Mowden at corner,

743
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 1: they bring in Josh Battle from Chattanooga. He was a

744
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 1: borderline FCS All American. He had First team All SoCon

745
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,839
Speaker 1: honors last year. The facts of the matter is, this

746
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 1: defense is going to be so much better. And when

747
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,760
Speaker 1: I look around the rest of the Sun Belt, particularly

748
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 1: in the West, who am I afraid of? Arkansas State

749
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 1: has a lot coming back offensively, but their defense was

750
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: a mess. I don't think that, you know, Butch Jones

751
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 1: is going to get that squared away and fixed and

752
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,359
Speaker 1: headed in the right direction. And then Texas State they're

753
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 1: also replacing their quarterback as well, so I think there's

754
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 1: some real opportunity to hit a big one twenty five

755
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 1: to one. What are your thoughts on USM going from

756
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:45,720
Speaker 1: a worse to first situation in the West.

757
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 2: It's hard to do. I think that it is going

758
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:51,879
Speaker 2: to require some breaks going your way. But I'm here

759
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 2: to tell you with that regular season win, I mean

760
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 2: that number will not stick around long. So if you

761
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 2: like over, I would play the over.

762
00:36:58,440 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: Now.

763
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: I love the talent that's in few that this team,

764
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 2: this Southern Miss team is going to look a lot

765
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 2: different than the team that has been on the field

766
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 2: the last couple of seasons. Great infusion of talent at

767
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 2: quarterback with Braylen Braxton, as you had mentioned. I like

768
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 2: some of the skill guys that they brought in, Micah

769
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 2: Davis and Elijah Metcalf. I like what they have in

770
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 2: the running back room with Robert Briggs and Matt Jones.

771
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 2: They got a great corner that's transferred in in battle

772
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 2: or excuse me, Josh Moten from Marshall Great Corner and

773
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 2: then battle FCS Fringe honorable player that you had mentioned before.

774
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 2: This team is going to have a significant uptick and talent,

775
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 2: and I think if you just go to the schedule

776
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 2: and you're trying to assess where this team is going

777
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 2: to secure wins, I'm trying to look for situations where

778
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:46,240
Speaker 2: they have winnable games, and not just stretch winnable games,

779
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 2: but where this team will actually compete and feel good

780
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 2: about their chances. Week two against Jackson State will have

781
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:55,399
Speaker 2: every opportunity in the world to collect a win. They

782
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 2: host app State, who's down by their standards and is

783
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 2: going through a rebuild of their own, certainly winnable. At

784
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 2: Louisiana Tech, they'll be right in the mix there. Well,

785
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 2: now you have possibly a three to one start. Team's

786
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 2: got some confidence. They can start to see that they

787
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 2: can believe in the build in what Charles Huff is doing.

788
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 2: He's a great motivator, he's a great players coach. People

789
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 2: love players, loved him at Marshall. It was just really

790
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: the administration, like you had said, that didn't step up

791
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 2: for him. And then you got Jacksonville State who's going

792
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,720
Speaker 2: through a complete rebuild. They were decimated in the portal,

793
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,759
Speaker 2: new coaching staff, new offensive regime. It's going to be

794
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 2: really tough this year. I think for Jacksonville State, that's

795
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 2: a game Southern Miss can win. Louisiana Monroe is on

796
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 2: the schedule, Arkansas State, even Texas State's down. As you

797
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 2: had mentioned before, Troy is not what they once were.

798
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:45,399
Speaker 2: There's probably seven or eight winnable games on this schedule realistically,

799
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 2: and that gives you a fantastic opportunity to clear four

800
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 2: and a half. I think it's a great value play.

801
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 2: The juice is not out of control. I'd lock in

802
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 2: four and a half over I like it.

803
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 1: As you walked through some of those opponents, there's a

804
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 1: likelihood that there's going to be five or six teams

805
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 1: in the Sunbelt alone breaking in new quarterbacks against the

806
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: Southern Miss team. So somebody to consider. From one twenty

807
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 1: five to one swing to another. Who do you like

808
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 1: in Conference USA?

809
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, from a long shot perspective, I think Middle Tennessee

810
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:17,279
Speaker 2: actually does have a pretty decent opportunity this year to

811
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:19,799
Speaker 2: get on a run. I didn't love what the team

812
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 2: did last year, but they do bring back some of

813
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 2: the cornerstone pieces from their roster from last season. I

814
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,760
Speaker 2: like Nicholas Battiato. I think that he'll get a little.

815
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,400
Speaker 1: I feel like he's been there since pre COVID. He

816
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 1: had that one Bowl game that he subbed in ads

817
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:34,839
Speaker 1: at the last minute. I feel like this guy has

818
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 1: been on campus for six years.

819
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:38,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, I think that they're good. You know,

820
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 2: they do have some transfers that are beefing up the

821
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 2: offensive line. I think they'll get a little bit more

822
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 2: consistent offensive line play. That was sort of the problem

823
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,359
Speaker 2: last year for Middle Tennessee is they really didn't have

824
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 2: a lot of explosivity in the run game and they

825
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:54,839
Speaker 2: couldn't be relied on to pass protect in third down situations.

826
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 2: And I think that they're going to shore that up

827
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 2: via the portal this year. I like what returns on

828
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,879
Speaker 2: the defensive On the defensive side of the ball, everybody's

829
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 2: back on the d line and in the linebacker corps.

830
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 2: I think they're going to shake out okay in the

831
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 2: secondary with the players that they've brought in, I think

832
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 2: you'll see some marginal increased improvement in what they have

833
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 2: talent wise and who their personnel is this year. On defense,

834
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 2: and then I dive into the schedule for Middle Tennessee.

835
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 2: The non conference is fairly manageable. They shouldn't get beat

836
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 2: up too bad with Austin, p Nevada, and Marshall on

837
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:31,399
Speaker 2: the schedule. They do have a trip to Wisconsin. Can't

838
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 2: imagine they'll win or really compete too heavily in that game.

839
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 2: But oftentimes some of these group of five teams are

840
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 2: playing two or three power fives and they get beat

841
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 2: up so badly in the non conference. That's not the

842
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 2: case this year with Middle Tennessee. And then when I'm

843
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,799
Speaker 2: breaking down the Conference USA schedule, some things that I

844
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,360
Speaker 2: like for this team to potentially build their confidence and

845
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 2: get on a roll. Really, all the road games are manageable.

846
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 2: They play Kansas State, Delaware, Western Kentucky, and New Mexico

847
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 2: State all on the road. Western Kentucky's one of those

848
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,879
Speaker 2: lesser own massive rivalries in that region with one hundred

849
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 2: miles of hate, and so they'll certainly be motivation in

850
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 2: that one. They avoid Liberty in Louisiana Tech. And then

851
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 2: an interesting scheduling quirk for Middle Tennessee. They've got a

852
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:15,720
Speaker 2: four week stretch right in the middle of the season

853
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 2: where they only play one game, and that's a home

854
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:23,879
Speaker 2: game against Missouri State FBS newcomer and a Missouri State

855
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 2: team that I think will likely struggle to compete this year,

856
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 2: just given the roster size, the scholarship availability that they have,

857
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:33,320
Speaker 2: and the talent that they're bringing back from that Missouri

858
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 2: Valley team. So I think that they're not really a

859
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 2: serious threat to really do much of anything in Conference USA.

860
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 2: There is Missouri State, but you're going to have the

861
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 2: stretch of time where Middle Tennessee is going to be

862
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,279
Speaker 2: able to get healthy, They'll be able to regroup and

863
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:50,439
Speaker 2: rally the troops, assess what did what went well during

864
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 2: the first five six games of the season, and then

865
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 2: really identify spots that they need to probably shore up

866
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:58,800
Speaker 2: their performance and then they can really get on a

867
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 2: run there with Delaware Jacksonville State FIU, this is a

868
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 2: team that has a lot of winnable conference games. They

869
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:10,439
Speaker 2: pull the bottom five perceived teams in league play, and

870
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 2: it's just one of those situations where you're going to

871
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 2: have some tricky spots, primarily that at Western Kentucky spot

872
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 2: on November fifteenth, and then at New Mexico State to

873
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 2: close out the season, but this is surely a spot

874
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 2: where you can grab a play on Middle Tennessee to

875
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 2: win the league now and then you can find your

876
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 2: head spot later on in the season to maybe go

877
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 2: the other way and still guarantee yourself some profit. I

878
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 2: also have a fair market value on this play of

879
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,879
Speaker 2: about sixteen to one or eighteen to one, so you're

880
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 2: definitely getting the better of the odds at twenty five

881
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 2: to one with Middle Tennessee. So it is a long

882
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 2: shot future. You're going to have to have some breaks

883
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 2: go your way. You're probably going to have to win

884
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 2: a game that you shouldn't. But they have a certainly

885
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 2: a better than twenty five to one chance to get

886
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:55,400
Speaker 2: to that conference championship game where they'll likely play Liberty,

887
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 2: and then you can assess what you want to do

888
00:42:57,560 --> 00:42:59,280
Speaker 2: from there. But I think we're in a good position

889
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 2: with Middle Tennessee.

890
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 1: Just a quick follow up there, assuming that it is

891
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:05,880
Speaker 1: Liberty waiting for them in the title game, what are

892
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 1: your thoughts on them bouncing back this year? Moving on

893
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 1: in the Postsalter era under this coaching staff that has

894
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 1: continuity Jamie Chadwell, it's always surprised me that he has

895
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 1: not moved up to a bigger job, but certainly he

896
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 1: has an opportunity now to lead a team to not

897
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 1: only show that two years ago wasn't a fluke making

898
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 1: it to the Fiestaval, but last year not only did

899
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 1: they lose and lose to a team like Kenesaw State,

900
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:33,360
Speaker 1: but they just looked like they were going through the motions.

901
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 1: There was something missing, There was an if factor missing. Offensively,

902
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: do you expect them to come back with a vengeance

903
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:39,359
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five?

904
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 2: I kind of felt like they let it slip through

905
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:44,240
Speaker 2: the wickets a little bit. It was very surprising Liberty

906
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 2: having gone through that stretch of games during the middle

907
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 2: of the season where like you had just said, they

908
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 2: were just going through the motions. Caden Salter didn't seem

909
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 2: to play with urgency. He was missing easy throws that

910
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 2: would have extended drives and put their team in better says.

911
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 2: And then, my goodness, losing his twenty six point favorites

912
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 2: against Kanasa State was just absolutely stunning. One of the

913
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,760
Speaker 2: most stunny results of the entire season at any level.

914
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:12,920
Speaker 2: In my opinion, I think that they do have definitely

915
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 2: some pieces. They've got a lot that's returning. I like

916
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 2: their quarterback pick up in Ethan Vasco. I think he'll

917
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 2: fill in just fine. I think the running back room

918
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 2: is still short up. Okay, I think that the schedule

919
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 2: calls for yeah, probably again one of those situations where

920
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 2: you're trying to assess where a team's performance is going

921
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 2: to go. What do they have in the non conference?

922
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 2: Their non conference safe for James Madison is actually pretty manageable.

923
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:38,760
Speaker 2: They're catching Bowling Green in a bit of a rebuild

924
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 2: with new regime and new personnel Jacksonville State, Maine. And

925
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:49,240
Speaker 2: then when you factor the conference slate, I think that gosh,

926
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:52,280
Speaker 2: just looking at their opponents with UTEP, New Mexico State,

927
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:56,400
Speaker 2: the two newcomers from FBS in Delaware and Missouri State,

928
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 2: it's just really hard to identify from the chair that

929
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 2: we're sitting in now, where there's too many stumbling blocks.

930
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 2: They end the season with a couple of road trips

931
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:10,839
Speaker 2: at FIU and at Louisiana Tech before possibly getting some

932
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:14,840
Speaker 2: surprising revenge needed on Kannessa State to close out the season.

933
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 2: But I just don't see a tremendous amount of landmine

934
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:21,879
Speaker 2: spots in this schedule for Liberty to where it's hard

935
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:24,839
Speaker 2: to see them not kind of getting on a roll

936
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 2: and exerting kind of that will and their frustration over

937
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 2: what kind of happened last year. I like Jamie Chadwell.

938
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 2: I think he's a fantastic coach. He's won everywhere he's been,

939
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 2: and I think this is one of those years where

940
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 2: we can likely see them play with a little bit

941
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 2: more attitude and a little bit more urgency. Given some

942
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 2: of those results that slipped through their fingers last year,

943
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:45,800
Speaker 2: I would expect that to be the case from Liberty.

944
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 1: I know not what cost others do they take, but

945
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: as for.

946
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 2: Me, give me Liberty, Oh give me that.

947
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 1: It was difficult last fall, particularly in the first six

948
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 1: weeks of the season, to have to move off a team,

949
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 1: a program that had become really a darling of the

950
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 1: BBOC podcast, and that was utsa hashtag meet meep. We

951
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:10,839
Speaker 1: love Jeff trailer around here. He went back to back

952
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 1: Conference USA titles. He amassed a twenty two and two

953
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 1: conference record between twenty twenty one and twenty twenty three.

954
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 1: But last year was a rebuild. Now they got things

955
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:21,359
Speaker 1: moving in the right direction at the end of the year,

956
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 1: and I'll come back and touch on that in just

957
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:25,319
Speaker 1: a second. But this all starts with the fact that

958
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 1: they are priced at plus six point fifty to win

959
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 1: the American I'm interested because of the schedule, they avoid

960
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 1: Navy and Memphis and they get to host Tulane and Army.

961
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 1: In terms of the top teams in the AAC, skipping

962
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 1: two of them and hosting the other two is ideal.

963
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 1: As I mentioned, two and four starts of the season,

964
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:44,840
Speaker 1: but they closed five and two with a one point

965
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 1: loss at Tulsa and a five point loss to the

966
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 1: AAC champs in Army at Mikey Stadium, So they were

967
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 1: right on the cusp with doing something special at the

968
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 1: second half of last season. They returned the best quarterback

969
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 1: in the conference in my opinion, at on account. During

970
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:01,439
Speaker 1: that five and two finish, he had seventy total touchdowns. Now,

971
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 1: the issue here is not his production in terms of tds.

972
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 1: He also average three hundred and forty total yards per game.

973
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 1: He's got to cut down on the hero ball and

974
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 1: turning the ball over too many turnover worthy plays that

975
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,319
Speaker 1: really could throw a monkey wrench into them climbing the

976
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 1: AAC mountain this year. But he returns almost all the

977
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 1: skill position weapons and we could finally see JT. Clark

978
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:24,040
Speaker 1: finally suit up again after roden injury. Luck. I'm pulling

979
00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 1: for this guy. He just keeps busting his knees up

980
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 1: if he can be on the field. I think when

981
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:30,799
Speaker 1: you add in the returning production at running back and

982
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 1: then the receiving coret this could be a really dangerous

983
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:36,280
Speaker 1: offense once again. But defensively is where this thing sinks

984
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 1: or swims. For me, I think there is certainly some

985
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 1: serious competition at the top of the AAC and some

986
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 1: of those teams have a little bit of edge in

987
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 1: a good way on defense. Five projected starters for the

988
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 1: road Runners are transfers, but the good news is that

989
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:53,759
Speaker 1: those five players were all three star gets through the portal. Now,

990
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 1: losing Jimori Robinson at West Virginia stings, that's their second

991
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 1: straight AAC Defensive Player of the Year exit and that's

992
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 1: just the way that it goes. In G five lane,

993
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 1: you have to be able to reload. But I think

994
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 1: we have an awesome staff when you look on the

995
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 1: defensive side of the ball. Jess Lepp is a former

996
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:13,480
Speaker 1: semi finalist for the Broyles Award. He's in a sixth

997
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 1: year on this staff. He knows what he's doing. And

998
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 1: the reason why I'm targeting the plus six fifty to

999
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:22,359
Speaker 1: win the AAC and not messing necessarily with the win

1000
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:24,759
Speaker 1: total is the opening month is going to be rough

1001
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 1: in terms of what they're seeing from opposing offenses. They

1002
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:30,319
Speaker 1: open with A and M, then Texas State, then Incarnate Word.

1003
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:32,799
Speaker 1: I think they're going to probably go two and one

1004
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 1: in that stretch, but they're certainly going to see a

1005
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 1: variety of offense. I think that is going to benefit

1006
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,359
Speaker 1: them down the stretch, being able to stop different looks,

1007
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:44,799
Speaker 1: power running games, spread attacks, and having that experience in

1008
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 1: they're too deep to be able to say we can

1009
00:48:46,920 --> 00:48:50,319
Speaker 1: stop multiple brands of football now. I also can poke

1010
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 1: holes in some of the other top AAC teams. Not

1011
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:54,760
Speaker 1: going to go ahead and do so to Lane's fully

1012
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 1: reloading at the skill positions. Makai Hughes has made the

1013
00:48:57,640 --> 00:48:59,839
Speaker 1: trip to the Pacific Northwest. He's going to be starting

1014
00:48:59,880 --> 00:49:02,280
Speaker 1: for the Oregon Ducks and they're on their third option

1015
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 1: a quarterback. I know the ball State kid looked pretty

1016
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:07,280
Speaker 1: good last year, but they would have preferred to retain

1017
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 1: the services of Mensa who's off the duke and TJ.

1018
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 1: Finley got himself in legal trouble, so we'll see what

1019
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 1: it looks like at quarterback for the Green Wave. Navy

1020
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:17,879
Speaker 1: really struggled offensively when there was enough tape on Drew

1021
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 1: Kronick's offense, and you saw that in the final month

1022
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 1: of the season. They ran into a wall multiple times.

1023
00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:27,240
Speaker 1: And then finally Memphis is replacing Hennigan and Mario Anderson Junior.

1024
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 1: So I look at this as who's going to stop

1025
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:33,280
Speaker 1: UTSA if they get everything rolling in the best way possible.

1026
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:36,320
Speaker 1: Army also doesn't have captain in America and Bryson Daily either,

1027
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 1: So I think this league is right for the taking.

1028
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 1: My cutof number for this was six to one. You

1029
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 1: can still get plus six to fifty out in the market.

1030
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 1: Are you with me on the road Runners?

1031
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:46,840
Speaker 2: I think there's good value there and I really like

1032
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 2: what you said about the top teams in the league

1033
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 2: kind of coming back to the pack, right, you can

1034
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 2: poke holes and everybody. Memphis is losing a lot of

1035
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 2: talent and is breaking in new personnel. Very interesting what

1036
00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:58,799
Speaker 2: you said about Navy, and so with Navy when they

1037
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,800
Speaker 2: were running that newer scheme with the wing Tea with

1038
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 2: your chronic from Mercer. It took some time for teams

1039
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 2: to get film on the technique and on the nuances

1040
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 2: of that.

1041
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you saw it with the triple option

1042
00:50:13,640 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 1: and that rail route up the sideline. How many times

1043
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 1: did Heide and Reich just kill teams before some people

1044
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:20,759
Speaker 1: finally started to figure out? You saw it in the

1045
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 1: Notre Dame game. Obviously, the talent disparity was huge, but

1046
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:25,319
Speaker 1: that was a domino effect to how they played for

1047
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:27,319
Speaker 1: really the rest of the season. It's not that the

1048
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:30,320
Speaker 1: offense is cooked. He can make adjustments, but they clearly

1049
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:32,399
Speaker 1: had the element of the surprise in the first sixty

1050
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:33,240
Speaker 1: eight weeks of the season.

1051
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:36,240
Speaker 2: Wholeheartedly agree. Same can be said for Army. They're losing

1052
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 2: so much personnel. You don't have daily, you don't have

1053
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:43,240
Speaker 2: Udo running at fullback, and you're losing some defensive production

1054
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 2: there as well. Tulane and you could consider them to

1055
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:49,000
Speaker 2: be a mess, right. There's just so much that they

1056
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 2: have to rebuild on and where are they going to

1057
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 2: draw from late in the conference late.

1058
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 1: I think that.

1059
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:57,239
Speaker 2: UTSA also has a nice schedule sets up for them

1060
00:50:57,280 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 2: to have success early on. They've got a lot of

1061
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:03,040
Speaker 2: winnable games in conference early and then they host Tulane,

1062
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 2: they host East Carolina, who I think actually could surprise

1063
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 2: this year as well. I think ECU has poised to

1064
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 2: potentially surprise some teams this season. And then getting Army

1065
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 2: last game of the season is also I think critically

1066
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:17,760
Speaker 2: huge because what happens you don't have to switch gears

1067
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:21,960
Speaker 2: and prepare for the triple try and worry about sneaking

1068
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,840
Speaker 2: that in at some other point during the season and

1069
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 2: then go back to traditional preparation later. They can focus

1070
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 2: that last part of it specifically on Army. The only

1071
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:34,360
Speaker 2: thing that I'll say about that tricky Army spot is

1072
00:51:34,360 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 2: that or you know, when they host Army, San Antonio

1073
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 2: is a military town and Army shows up for that,

1074
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 2: and so that's one where Army might have that game circle.

1075
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 2: They've played well in that dome in the past, kind

1076
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 2: of showing out as a little bit of a recruiting

1077
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:51,640
Speaker 2: trip too for their program. So it'll be interesting to

1078
00:51:51,640 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 2: see there. But I think UTSA with what they have returning,

1079
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:57,879
Speaker 2: I think that yeah, they'll be just fine and they'll

1080
00:51:57,880 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 2: have their say and who what happens in that league?

1081
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:04,080
Speaker 1: Now I know this is a G five focus pod,

1082
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 1: at least when I'm on AT's the Group of five

1083
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 1: deep dive. But I don't mind dabbling in some power

1084
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 1: forward looks, and you have one here to close out

1085
00:52:11,480 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 1: our buffet of futures picks here in the offseason, I.

1086
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:16,759
Speaker 2: Do we'll tie it to the G five because the

1087
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 2: primary reason why we're talking about this team is because

1088
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:22,880
Speaker 2: of G five previous hero of the Week Devin Dampier,

1089
00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:25,360
Speaker 2: who will all remember for his heroics at New Mexico

1090
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 2: game in and game out. But I think that there

1091
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:30,920
Speaker 2: was just so much value in Utah, and I think

1092
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 2: there was a number that we receive based on negative

1093
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:36,680
Speaker 2: perception with how Utah's season went last year and how

1094
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 2: poorly they played late in the season. But I really

1095
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:44,080
Speaker 2: like what Utah has added in their position groups this season,

1096
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:47,279
Speaker 2: and I think that they have a fantastic shot to

1097
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:49,959
Speaker 2: compete in what I believe to be a wide open

1098
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 2: Big twelve. You have five or six teams that are

1099
00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 2: all priced relatively similarly to win that league, to include

1100
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 2: Kansas State, Texas Tech, Arizona State, kind of the usual suspects.

1101
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 2: But then you and I identified early in the spring

1102
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 2: that Utah had just such a severely missed priced number.

1103
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 2: And with the players that they brought in Power five

1104
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:11,399
Speaker 2: level at the corner position, they brought in some Power

1105
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:14,399
Speaker 2: five transfers on the defensive line, they beefed up their

1106
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 2: depth at linebacker, which was a concern last year. And

1107
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:20,120
Speaker 2: then bringing in electric Devin Dampier to run that offense

1108
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:23,279
Speaker 2: I think is really critically important. I think one thing

1109
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 2: that was super uncharacteristic for Mikyle Whittingham coach team is

1110
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:29,279
Speaker 2: that at times Utah looked so soft last year in

1111
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:31,880
Speaker 2: the run game. They couldn't pick up first downs on

1112
00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:34,799
Speaker 2: third and two. They weren't playing with attitude along the

1113
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:38,320
Speaker 2: offensive line. I would anticipate that that totally changes gears

1114
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:39,719
Speaker 2: this year. I think they're going to get back to

1115
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:42,880
Speaker 2: running the football. I think having a dual threat in

1116
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:46,800
Speaker 2: damp Yer to run with the other pieces of personnel

1117
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 2: that Utah is going to rely on and that running

1118
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 2: system is going to be really critical. And I watched

1119
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 2: the spring game and Devin Dampier was throwing darts all

1120
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:57,320
Speaker 2: spring game and he really showed off the arm talent.

1121
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:01,880
Speaker 2: One of the negative criticisms on Dampier was that he

1122
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 2: can trust that arm a little too much and he'll

1123
00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:05,799
Speaker 2: throw it into a really tight window. And he did

1124
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 2: throw some interceptions, so we definitely hope that that is

1125
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 2: something that's curved back a bit here. But my goodness,

1126
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 2: I think that I think Utah has just as good

1127
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 2: a chance as any to kind of make a run.

1128
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:19,239
Speaker 2: The schedule sets up really nice as well. They get

1129
00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:21,719
Speaker 2: to host Texas Tech, they get to host Arizona State

1130
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 2: and Kansas State. There will be some spots where they're

1131
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 2: going to have to play exceptional football. Those are particularly

1132
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 2: road trips at BYU and Baylor. But with the number

1133
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 2: that you and I locked in at, I think it

1134
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 2: was no brainer that that value play had to be made,

1135
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:38,000
Speaker 2: and the markets agreed with us wholeheartedly. As we've seen

1136
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:40,399
Speaker 2: Utah come down to as low as plus seven hundred

1137
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 2: now to win the league, so it was a really

1138
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:43,319
Speaker 2: good early git for us.

1139
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 1: I would encourage everyone if you missed the episode with

1140
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:50,759
Speaker 1: Thornton Eistrom, I believe it's the last one in the

1141
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 1: BBOC catalog, go back and listen, because he got into

1142
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:56,799
Speaker 1: four teams that he's really high on, and Utah is

1143
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:59,439
Speaker 1: one of them, and I couldn't agree more. I mean,

1144
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:01,920
Speaker 1: the three of us are all here in lockstep, and

1145
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:04,080
Speaker 1: it starts with Devin Dan Pierre, but also the skill

1146
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:07,480
Speaker 1: position talent they brought in to help him. Ryan Davis

1147
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 1: comes with him from New Mexico and the player that

1148
00:55:09,719 --> 00:55:13,680
Speaker 1: I mentioned in the last episode, Creed Whitmore from Mississippi State.

1149
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:16,400
Speaker 1: He could be a yak demon in this offense, the

1150
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 1: short passing game, the quick game, the RPO, the Jets sweeps.

1151
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:21,440
Speaker 1: He's someone that could really make a name for himself.

1152
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 1: And I mean the fact of the matter is talk

1153
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 1: about an overreaction from the public. This is one of

1154
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,840
Speaker 1: the most stable coaching staffs in all of college sports.

1155
00:55:31,120 --> 00:55:34,840
Speaker 1: Has accomplished an incredible amount, particularly when he has a

1156
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 1: good quarterback. You go back to Brian Johnson win in

1157
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 1: the Sugar Bowl over that Alabama team in Nick Saban,

1158
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 1: when Cam Rising wasn't hurt. They went to back to

1159
00:55:42,680 --> 00:55:45,280
Speaker 1: back Rose Bowls. So all of a sudden for people

1160
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:47,759
Speaker 1: to be selling on him, and this concept of you

1161
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,320
Speaker 1: know they're cooked the Big twelve is just too deep.

1162
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't understand what the pushback would be

1163
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:56,799
Speaker 1: to me. If you have a living, breathing quarterback and

1164
00:55:56,840 --> 00:55:59,600
Speaker 1: you put together your roster in a thoughtful way. You

1165
00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:01,400
Speaker 1: have a chains to win the big twelve, and I

1166
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:03,960
Speaker 1: think they're certainly there. I grabbed them in eighteen to one.

1167
00:56:04,040 --> 00:56:05,960
Speaker 1: We're seeing this number all the way down in the

1168
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 1: seven to eight to one neighborhood. Even get eight to one,

1169
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 1: I would still pull the trigger. I think there's value there.

1170
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 1: But really I'm also targeting that first month of September

1171
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:16,759
Speaker 1: because most people have not seen Devin Dampier play, and

1172
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 1: when they close their eyes, they're thinking about that ugly

1173
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:21,479
Speaker 1: offense from last year for the Utes. That is going

1174
00:56:21,520 --> 00:56:23,719
Speaker 1: to I think have an effect and bleed in to

1175
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:25,960
Speaker 1: some of the public money in that first month. But

1176
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 1: as we learned last year with the Lobos, once the

1177
00:56:28,719 --> 00:56:30,480
Speaker 1: secret's out, all of a sudden, there's going to be

1178
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:33,400
Speaker 1: a shift in the market. Any other final thoughts you

1179
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 1: have on your offseason prep. I know that we could

1180
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 1: go on talking for hours about all the opportunities to

1181
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:41,360
Speaker 1: really kind of stick it to the books. Hang in

1182
00:56:41,400 --> 00:56:44,120
Speaker 1: some stale numbers or some numbers that are predicated more

1183
00:56:44,280 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 1: on the twenty twenty four versions of these teams that

1184
00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 1: are long gone.

1185
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:49,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, the great thing is we were able to get an

1186
00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:51,640
Speaker 2: early jump on the preparation. You know, I think that

1187
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:55,880
Speaker 2: sometimes people will use the release of a major college

1188
00:56:55,880 --> 00:56:58,640
Speaker 2: football publication around the fourth of July as a time

1189
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 2: to start their offseason prep around the water cooler or

1190
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:04,560
Speaker 2: the barbecue. But I'll tell you right now that you're

1191
00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:06,960
Speaker 2: too late at that point. There's too much happening in

1192
00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:10,719
Speaker 2: the transfer portal, there's too much dynamically changing in the

1193
00:57:10,800 --> 00:57:13,200
Speaker 2: landscape with the sport. There's one hundred and thirty six

1194
00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 2: FBS teams to follow, and so I would encourage anyone

1195
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:20,920
Speaker 2: jump into your preparation earlier, really compress that time that

1196
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 2: you're starting to dive into these teams and into the schedules,

1197
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:26,880
Speaker 2: and really assess these markets which still have plenty of

1198
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 2: value and are oftentimes emerging in popularity. So we here

1199
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:32,920
Speaker 2: at the Action Network are going to continue to do

1200
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:35,200
Speaker 2: that and provide winners for you in these markets throughout

1201
00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:38,240
Speaker 2: the summer. So encourage everyone to keep tuning in to

1202
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:40,920
Speaker 2: our episodes so you can continue to have these nuggets

1203
00:57:40,960 --> 00:57:43,800
Speaker 2: for the future portfolio.

1204
00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:47,080
Speaker 1: That I'll do it for today's episode. Thanks again to

1205
00:57:47,200 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 1: Josh for joining us and giving us a look into

1206
00:57:49,600 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 1: his future's portfolio. Reminder that you can follow his work

1207
00:57:52,320 --> 00:57:55,440
Speaker 1: over at the Action Network app. I'll be back tomorrow

1208
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 1: talking college baseball. It's conference tournament week with Colin Wilson

1209
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:02,160
Speaker 1: to be breaking down all the major teams as well

1210
00:58:02,200 --> 00:58:05,280
Speaker 1: as giving some look aheads to the NCAA Tournament Regional

1211
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 1: super Regionals, all the way in that path to Omaha

1212
00:58:08,320 --> 00:58:11,240
Speaker 1: for the College World Series. Thank you so much for listening,

1213
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:13,160
Speaker 1: and catch us next time here at the Big.

1214
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:26,320
Speaker 2: Bets on campus. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1215
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:29,560
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1216
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1217
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:33,360
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler