WEBVTT - Trump Ends Trade Talks With Canada, Threatens to Set Tariff

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business Week,

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Carol, we got some good news from a framework with China, right,

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<v Speaker 2>We heard some details from that today. We heard details

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<v Speaker 2>last night on Bloomberg from Scott Besant. Kind of tough

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<v Speaker 2>to keep track of it all.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, exactly, So maybe two steps forward, two steps back.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know how you kind of gauge this, but

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<v Speaker 3>Josh Wingrove has to keep track of it all and

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<v Speaker 3>help us make sense of it. Bloomberg News Senior White

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<v Speaker 3>House correspondent. He is there in our Washington, DC bureau. Josh,

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<v Speaker 3>it's a lot today, but tell us abouts of all,

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<v Speaker 3>let's go to the bad news, because it does feel

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<v Speaker 3>like this is what's pressuring markets today, what's going on?

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<v Speaker 3>And what do you know about US and Canada's negotiations.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, the news here is kind of out of left field.

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<v Speaker 4>But Trump is taking issue with this Canada Digital services tax.

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<v Speaker 4>This has been like a long running thing and it's

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<v Speaker 4>not new, but the first payments are due next week,

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<v Speaker 4>is our colleagues in Toronto are writing about. And so

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<v Speaker 4>this is sort of kind of dovetailing with this news

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<v Speaker 4>today of some sort of G seven agreement on global

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<v Speaker 4>taxation and the Global minimum tax that Trump and the

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<v Speaker 4>Trump administration or sort of touting, you know, I don't

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<v Speaker 4>want to get too buried in the weeds. Essentially, Trump

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<v Speaker 4>thinks that the Canadians are pulling a fast one on

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<v Speaker 4>him more or less and proceeding with this at a

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<v Speaker 4>time when there's other questions about how they should be

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<v Speaker 4>taxing these kind of things. And that's what led to this.

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<v Speaker 4>And it's kind of a surprise because Canada was one of,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, a handful of countries that does not have

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<v Speaker 4>a tarif deadline coming up right. They are not included

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<v Speaker 4>in the July ninth pause with a with about five

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<v Speaker 4>dozen countries and the EU set to face potential higher

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<v Speaker 4>tariffs on July ninth. China, Canada, and Mexico have always been,

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<v Speaker 4>or at least have lately been separate from that and

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<v Speaker 4>So the question here is what now The current Canada

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<v Speaker 4>tarif rate is twenty five percent, That is to say,

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<v Speaker 4>Trump's tariff on Canada is twenty five percent, but there

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<v Speaker 4>is a major exemption for goods traded under the USMCA

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<v Speaker 4>Trade Pact. So a blow of options here, I suppose three.

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<v Speaker 4>I guess one is this could be a bargaining tactic

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<v Speaker 4>and they could reach some kind of a deal to

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<v Speaker 4>Trump and seek to raise that rate that applies to

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<v Speaker 4>non USMCA goods, so from twenty five up to a

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<v Speaker 4>different number. For instance, he's previously doubled the rate on

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<v Speaker 4>stealing aluminum to fifty from twenty five. Or he could

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<v Speaker 4>try to claw back some of those exclusions on USMCA trade.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that third one. We get a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>blowback from American industry, in particular the auto industry, who

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<v Speaker 4>you know, were relying on these pretty integrated supply chains

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<v Speaker 4>and saw those exclusions as pretty key. But this is

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<v Speaker 4>a pretty explosive development here. Of course, just you know,

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<v Speaker 4>barely over a weeks the G seven when Trump and

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<v Speaker 4>Prime Minister Carney of Canada seemed to strike a pretty

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<v Speaker 4>upbeat tone. But Tuesday is Canada Day. You know, this

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<v Speaker 4>is not a way to celebrate. I guess the Canadians

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<v Speaker 4>are going to be upset by that. But we'll see.

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<v Speaker 4>We'll see.

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<v Speaker 2>It's Friday, Josh. A lot can happen between now and

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<v Speaker 2>Canada Day.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to go into some details here. This a

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<v Speaker 2>group of twenty one US lawmakers wrote to President Trump

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<v Speaker 2>earlier this month asking him to push for the taxes removal.

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<v Speaker 2>This tax is similar, as you mentioned, to one implemented

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<v Speaker 2>by some other countries, including the UK. It's equal to

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<v Speaker 2>three percent of the digital services revenue that a firm

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<v Speaker 2>makes from Canadian users above fourteen point six million dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>So this would apply to companies such as meta platforms

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<v Speaker 2>and alphabet You know, I want to zoom in on

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<v Speaker 2>what you said was sort of option number one here

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<v Speaker 2>the negotiating tactic. Is this the art of the deal,

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<v Speaker 2>because we've seen the President do this repeatedly over the

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<v Speaker 2>last few months. You can remember what happened on so

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<v Speaker 2>called Liberation Day and the way that he backed away

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<v Speaker 2>from some of those tariffs and put a pause on him.

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<v Speaker 2>But he did get some countries to move.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that's right, and we could be seeing that here.

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<v Speaker 4>I should note also, the Canadians thought there was like

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<v Speaker 4>a thirty day clock, or at least they said so

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<v Speaker 4>on the heels of that G seven meeting that were almost,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, halfway through that thirty days. So Canada wanted

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<v Speaker 4>some kind of a deal within thirty days, not only

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<v Speaker 4>on that twenty five percent and the exclusion for USMCA,

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<v Speaker 4>but the other sectoral tariffs, in particular autos, steel and

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<v Speaker 4>aluminum and the impact those could have. Trump has exempted

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<v Speaker 4>USMCA autos but may still tariff auto parts that are

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<v Speaker 4>USMCA compliant. That's gonna be a big deal for the Canadians.

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<v Speaker 4>So they're looking for some kind of grand bargain here,

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<v Speaker 4>and I think you if it is option one, if

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<v Speaker 4>this is a bargaining tactic, Trump is putting another thing

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<v Speaker 4>on the table here and saying this has to be

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<v Speaker 4>part of any sort of grand bargain. Prime Minister Carney

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<v Speaker 4>has been less quick than his predecessor Trudeau to hit

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<v Speaker 4>with counter tariffs. He's been much more measured. But the

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<v Speaker 4>flip side of that is he that has room to

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<v Speaker 4>do them if he wants to. So the Canadians right

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<v Speaker 4>now have been silent. Last I checked in response to

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<v Speaker 4>the President will see where it goes. But you know

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<v Speaker 4>this this that he could be looking for leverage here.

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<v Speaker 4>But the deadlines here are really kind of you know,

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<v Speaker 4>made up. Trump'ss seven days, but there's nothing holding them

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<v Speaker 4>to that. He doesn't have to do anything within seven days.

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<v Speaker 4>The Canadians have said thirty but likewise there's nothing holding

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<v Speaker 4>them to that. As opposed to the other countries. The

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<v Speaker 4>July ninth stuff that is in that is on the books,

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<v Speaker 4>those terrafts are going up on July ninth unless Trump

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<v Speaker 4>does something to change it. So those ones are a

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<v Speaker 4>different sort of landscape.

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<v Speaker 5>Well let's go there.

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<v Speaker 3>Because the EU and the US believe they can reach

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<v Speaker 3>a trade agreement before that July ninth deadline, that's when

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<v Speaker 3>the US is set to impose a fifty percent tariff

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<v Speaker 3>of nearly all EU products.

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<v Speaker 5>That seems like maybe a very positive sign. Is it

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<v Speaker 5>a positive sign? Because that's a big one.

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<v Speaker 4>It seems to be a positive sign. We've got on

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<v Speaker 4>the record comments from Hower Lattin sort of striking an

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<v Speaker 4>upbeat tone about it. Our colleagues Alberto Nadeli and Jorge

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<v Speaker 4>Valero and in Europe have some reporting today on the

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<v Speaker 4>European view of it. They sound equally optimistic. What's not

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<v Speaker 4>clear is are they are they reaching kind of what

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<v Speaker 4>like a China deal, like a framework type of deal,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, a pathway kind of deal, or are they

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<v Speaker 4>actually getting down to brass tacks and getting something more comprehensive.

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<v Speaker 4>That's not clear. And today we've had comments both from

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<v Speaker 4>Trump and Bess and Secretary Bestident of the Treasury, sort

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<v Speaker 4>of signaling a two tiered approach. Best saying, look, we've

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<v Speaker 4>got like twelve ten, eighteen something like that, big training partners,

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<v Speaker 4>and they might look to wrap that up by September first,

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<v Speaker 4>he said, Labor day. And that raises the prospect of

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<v Speaker 4>extensions for some countries. Bigger countries may be ones that

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<v Speaker 4>are making headway. On the flip side, it's about five

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<v Speaker 4>dozen countries in total that are facing a terrified and

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<v Speaker 4>Trump said today, look, you know, I might even raise

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<v Speaker 4>them before July ninth. We don't expect that, but he

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<v Speaker 4>sort of threw it out there, and he said that

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<v Speaker 4>he kind of wants to do maybe even twenty five

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<v Speaker 4>percent and tariffs and it's best and it's nicer than

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<v Speaker 4>him and Veston doesn't want to do it. And so

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<v Speaker 4>right now we've got this sort of multi track thing.

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<v Speaker 4>Right You've got a group of countries that maybe are

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<v Speaker 4>smaller trading partners that are facing a July ninth deadline,

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<v Speaker 4>and Trump is signaling that he might want to put

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<v Speaker 4>a higher tariff on them. Then he threw out the

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<v Speaker 4>number twenty five percent today, up from the baseline ten.

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<v Speaker 4>Then you've got other ones, presumably including the EU, that

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<v Speaker 4>will either reach a deal or maybe get an extension,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, with talks continuing throughout the summer. Then you've

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<v Speaker 4>got the China situation. They put some ink to paper

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<v Speaker 4>a couple of days ago on their framework, but there's

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<v Speaker 4>another deadline coming in August, so they'll be a fresh

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<v Speaker 4>sort of mile marker there. And then you've got the

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<v Speaker 4>Canada one, and I should add the Mexico one, both

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<v Speaker 4>of those not with firm deadlines, but now Trump pledging

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<v Speaker 4>something on seven days in Canada and Mexico separately, rumors

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<v Speaker 4>of some kind of field deal, and we don't know

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<v Speaker 4>where that stands right now. So a lot of moving

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<v Speaker 4>parts on this. Remember they talked about ninety deals in

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<v Speaker 4>ninety days. So far we have got like two, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>that are not necessarily full baked. So this is complex,

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<v Speaker 4>all right, complex stuff. But Trump loves tariffs.

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<v Speaker 3>Remember that, Josh, You're sitting down a dinner or you're

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know, at a bar with a front tonight

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<v Speaker 3>and they say, hey, are we making progress on trade

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<v Speaker 3>the United States? They actually getting something done and in

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<v Speaker 3>a good way? Do you say yes or no?

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<v Speaker 4>No one hangs out with me anymore because I just

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<v Speaker 4>talk about this stuff all the time. But I think yes.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, that's is talking about I don't believe that September,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, so we could potentially it seems yes, they

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<v Speaker 4>could be. But remember Trump is clearly itching to want

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<v Speaker 4>to just send a unilateral number Liberation Day two point zero,

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<v Speaker 4>maybe a number not as high as the initial numbers

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<v Speaker 4>you put out, but higher than ten percent. And so

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<v Speaker 4>that combined with the fact that we still have more

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<v Speaker 4>sectoral tariffs coming, and the fact that he's demonstrated and

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<v Speaker 4>Chell for wanting to just raise them on his own,

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<v Speaker 4>like with stealing aluminum, the number of tariffs look like

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<v Speaker 4>they're going to go up, not down going forward. I

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<v Speaker 4>think the market should be aware of that.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast catch

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<v Speaker 3>The Supreme Court getting ready to wrap up this term,

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<v Speaker 3>and they did come down with five different rulings. A

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<v Speaker 3>big one was the US Supreme Court limiting the power

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<v Speaker 3>of judges to block government policies nationwide. They did leave

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<v Speaker 3>unresolved to fight over President Donald Trump's restrictions on automatic

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<v Speaker 3>birthright citizenship. But this all gets to tim specifically, what's

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<v Speaker 3>going on in terms of presidential power. We did have

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<v Speaker 3>the President hailing the decision as a monumental victory and

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<v Speaker 3>said the administration would move to get blocks lifted on

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<v Speaker 3>a number of his policies. Here's the president earlier.

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<v Speaker 6>Thanks to this decision, we can now promptly file to

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<v Speaker 6>proceed with numerous policies that have been wrongly enjoined on

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<v Speaker 6>a nationwide basis. And some of the cases we're talking

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<v Speaker 6>about would be ending birthright citizenship, which now comes to

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<v Speaker 6>the fore.

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<v Speaker 2>That was President Trump just a little earlier today commenting

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<v Speaker 2>on this US Supreme Court limiting the power of judges

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<v Speaker 2>to block some government policies nationwide. Let's bring in right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Harold Krant He's a professor of law at the Chicago

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<v Speaker 2>Kent College of Law, also the author of the book

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<v Speaker 2>Presidential Powers, Joining us to talk to these latest Supreme

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<v Speaker 2>Court decisions. That's exactly where I want to start, birthright citizenship.

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<v Speaker 2>This is something that during this term President Trump has

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<v Speaker 2>really gone after. What is your interpretation of what the

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<v Speaker 2>Supreme Court said today when it comes to what many

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<v Speaker 2>had deemed as a constitutional right of birthright citizenship.

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<v Speaker 7>The Supreme Court did not directly address the question of

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<v Speaker 7>whether the ban on birthright citizenship is constitutional or not,

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<v Speaker 7>and most observers think it's not, but the Court refused

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<v Speaker 7>to wave into those waters. Instead, what the court held

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<v Speaker 7>was that the courts below aired in issuing the nationwide

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<v Speaker 7>injunction against the executive ordered by President Trump. Certainly this

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<v Speaker 7>is a victory in a sense for presidential power. It

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<v Speaker 7>denies a court the ability to enjoin a president nationwide.

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<v Speaker 7>While the resident on his or her behalf can obviously

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<v Speaker 7>affect the nation with one fail suit, as President Trump

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<v Speaker 7>has with all these executive orders. Now the attacks will

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<v Speaker 7>have to be the piecemeal fashion.

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<v Speaker 5>So what does this mean then?

0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:17.640
<v Speaker 3>I mean, does this in any way embolden President Trump

0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:19.720
<v Speaker 3>potentially to move on.

0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:21.400
<v Speaker 5>I just I guess what I'm trying to do is

0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:23.240
<v Speaker 5>carry this out. What other actions might.

0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:28.080
<v Speaker 3>Come forward, you know, when the Supreme Court comes back

0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:29.520
<v Speaker 3>that kind of the next turn that they might need

0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:31.520
<v Speaker 3>to be addressing, like what does this do in terms

0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:35.160
<v Speaker 3>of enabling him to move forward on maybe different initiatives

0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:39.079
<v Speaker 3>that maybe before this ruling he might not have done.

0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:45.160
<v Speaker 7>So there are a number of maybe ten twelve nationwide

0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:48.360
<v Speaker 7>injunctions that are in place right now in terms of

0:11:48.600 --> 0:11:54.600
<v Speaker 7>stopping President Trump from cutting funding for various initiatives, stopping

0:11:54.679 --> 0:12:00.599
<v Speaker 7>him from firing federal employees, stopping him from reassigning employees.

0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:04.080
<v Speaker 8>And right now those will no longer be binding.

0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:07.920
<v Speaker 7>They're only binding to the extent that plaintiffs were properly

0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:11.400
<v Speaker 7>situated in the court. In other words, those people who

0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:14.920
<v Speaker 7>filed suit will get the benefit of the injunction, but

0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:18.880
<v Speaker 7>no one else. So, holding back to birthright citizenship, that

0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:23.200
<v Speaker 7>all those who joined the case as plaintiffs challenging this

0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:26.360
<v Speaker 7>policy will still get the benefit of the injunction. But

0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:29.960
<v Speaker 7>the fear is that after thirty days, if those plaintiffs

0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:34.520
<v Speaker 7>other than those plaintiffs the president may try to strip

0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:37.680
<v Speaker 7>citizenship and remove people from the country because they're no

0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:39.440
<v Speaker 7>longer protected by the injunction.

0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:42.320
<v Speaker 8>The natural response.

0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:45.960
<v Speaker 7>Should be either to file a class action or perhaps

0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:49.120
<v Speaker 7>to have state suit on behalf of their citizens. We

0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:51.000
<v Speaker 7>don't know if that will be successful or not, but

0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:54.960
<v Speaker 7>that will be the important reaction to the Supreme Court's

0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:59.040
<v Speaker 7>decision today. So all litigation will have to go now

0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:03.960
<v Speaker 7>more in a radic fashion to counter the presidential assertion

0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:07.400
<v Speaker 7>of authority. And only when all courts have spoken, or

0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:09.920
<v Speaker 7>at least when the Court is spoken, well, can the

0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:12.800
<v Speaker 7>presence policy be stopped across the board.

0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:15.640
<v Speaker 2>You know, I want to follow on Carroll's question a

0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:18.520
<v Speaker 2>little bit, Professor, and talk about presidential power and the

0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:24.319
<v Speaker 2>consolidation of presidential power. How does this court, these nine justices,

0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:27.240
<v Speaker 2>how do they seem to define the power of the

0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:31.440
<v Speaker 2>president in a historical context of the presidential power that

0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.280
<v Speaker 2>we're traditionally used to as Americans with three co equal

0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:36.199
<v Speaker 2>branches of government.

0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:41.439
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, obviously we've seen a shift here. It's shown in

0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:44.680
<v Speaker 7>various ways. It's shown in the fact that the Congress

0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:48.640
<v Speaker 7>no longer apparently has the power to limit the president's

0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:52.800
<v Speaker 7>ability to fire whoever he wants to in the administration,

0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:56.160
<v Speaker 7>and that's been true of these agencies such as the

0:13:56.240 --> 0:14:00.560
<v Speaker 7>National Labor Relations Board, the Federal Trade Commission, and many more.

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:04.160
<v Speaker 7>It shows up in the fact that, again in this case,

0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:08.480
<v Speaker 7>that courts can't order in junctions nationwide against presidential policies

0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:11.320
<v Speaker 7>that they find illegal. And it's shown up, of course

0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:14.360
<v Speaker 7>in the presidential immunities case last year. Would suggests that

0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:18.080
<v Speaker 7>to a scary extent, not fully, but to a scary extent,

0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:22.600
<v Speaker 7>presidents are above the reach of the criminal law. So

0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:26.520
<v Speaker 7>in all these facets, we're seeing more that the court

0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:30.400
<v Speaker 7>is embracing a more powerful president at the expense of

0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:33.240
<v Speaker 7>Congress and even the judiciary itself. This is not to

0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:36.040
<v Speaker 7>say that Congress doesn't have levers. It's just that Congress,

0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.800
<v Speaker 7>as we know, it's not using whatever levers that it

0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:42.400
<v Speaker 7>still has remaining to it. And that's again and boldening

0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:44.360
<v Speaker 7>the president to taking even more power.

0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:47.920
<v Speaker 3>All right, So you wrote the book of presidential powers.

0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:50.600
<v Speaker 3>We're talking about this what this decision means. And I

0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:54.080
<v Speaker 3>just wonder so, and maybe this isn't you're Beliwick, but

0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:58.520
<v Speaker 3>I do wonder, professor, whether we need to rethink kind

0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:00.880
<v Speaker 3>of government in terms of balance of We thought these

0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:03.840
<v Speaker 3>three branches would just do it. It worked for a

0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:06.760
<v Speaker 3>long time, it seemed to, and yet now we're seeing

0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:08.760
<v Speaker 3>it come undone. And to be fair, this isn't the

0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.760
<v Speaker 3>only administrative stration that has used a lot of executive orders,

0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:15.760
<v Speaker 3>but it does seem like the presidential position has gotten

0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:19.920
<v Speaker 3>a lot more powerful. So are there changes in our

0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.960
<v Speaker 3>government that you see need to be forthcoming, including the

0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:23.840
<v Speaker 3>judicial branch.

0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:26.680
<v Speaker 8>I mean it's possible.

0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:29.480
<v Speaker 7>I think that what most people think is that the

0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:33.080
<v Speaker 7>first step would be a reawakening of the legislative branch.

0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:36.560
<v Speaker 7>We always thought that the legislative branch was the most powerful,

0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:39.360
<v Speaker 7>at least intrinsically the most powerful, and that's certainly what

0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:43.080
<v Speaker 7>people thought at the framing when our country was formed.

0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:46.480
<v Speaker 7>But Congress has taken a back seat, and it's allowed

0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:49.160
<v Speaker 7>the president to seize more and more authority tariffs as

0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:52.320
<v Speaker 7>a perfect example, and hasn't fought back over TIFFs. It

0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:54.840
<v Speaker 7>hasn't bought back over the you know, the question of

0:15:55.000 --> 0:16:00.200
<v Speaker 7>sending migrants to third countries. It could it should think

0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:04.080
<v Speaker 7>that what we asserted the kind of by reasserting Congress

0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:06.120
<v Speaker 7>into the mix, I think it would be a more

0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:11.560
<v Speaker 7>healthy separation of powers balance to our government. So you know,

0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:15.520
<v Speaker 7>that would be the most logical wish list is for

0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:18.600
<v Speaker 7>that to happen. I don't know if it will. Congress

0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.400
<v Speaker 7>is not so far. Maybe it's going going to happen

0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:24.200
<v Speaker 7>with this big, beautiful bill, but you know, Congress hasn't

0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:26.880
<v Speaker 7>really seized the reins and tried to assert itself in

0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:27.480
<v Speaker 7>this mix.

0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:30.880
<v Speaker 2>This one really has to do with what, if anything,

0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:34.560
<v Speaker 2>we learned from the justices and the discussion among the justices.

0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:37.520
<v Speaker 2>I know, people are still making their way and learning

0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:40.360
<v Speaker 2>about what was decided and what came out at the

0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:42.760
<v Speaker 2>Supreme Court today, what we learned about the Supreme Court,

0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:45.040
<v Speaker 2>But did we get any insight in the way these

0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:49.120
<v Speaker 2>different justices have approached presidential power. That differs today than

0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:52.720
<v Speaker 2>we've learned in recent months, ter in recent weeks.

0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:54.760
<v Speaker 8>A little bit. I mean, the court is still fractured.

0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:58.840
<v Speaker 7>There's still obviously a very very conservative wing and a

0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:01.920
<v Speaker 7>liberal wing and a couple of that we call swing

0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:06.040
<v Speaker 7>justices that will change. And so the configuration of the

0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:09.960
<v Speaker 7>court was different. Two delegation cases, the challenge of the

0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:13.639
<v Speaker 7>eight billion dollars of subsidies that the SEC gives us

0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:19.280
<v Speaker 7>to rural areas and to schools, where three justices conservative

0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:23.920
<v Speaker 7>justices dissented, but the remaining judges, the liberal judges and

0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:26.919
<v Speaker 7>the middle judges came together. And that was true in

0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:31.840
<v Speaker 7>another delegation case to an agency as well. In that

0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:34.200
<v Speaker 7>case there was a delegation to a group to side

0:17:34.200 --> 0:17:37.960
<v Speaker 7>what preventative care services must be funded by an insurance company.

0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:40.639
<v Speaker 7>So those are just two important cases where the middle

0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:45.119
<v Speaker 7>held out. But in terms of overall, I think the

0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:48.680
<v Speaker 7>issue that we could see, particularly from this the injunction case,

0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:51.960
<v Speaker 7>you know, is that the majority of the court is

0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:57.520
<v Speaker 7>content to have a very strong president over atop the

0:17:57.560 --> 0:18:00.399
<v Speaker 7>government with very few guard wheels. And that's what we

0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:03.199
<v Speaker 7>have to watch and that's what we're concerned about. And

0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:06.520
<v Speaker 7>now that these nationwide injunctions will be dissolving, we'll have

0:18:06.560 --> 0:18:10.800
<v Speaker 7>to see if the president moves vigorously and rapidly to

0:18:10.880 --> 0:18:14.440
<v Speaker 7>try to carry out his policies despite the possible very

0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:18.959
<v Speaker 7>very negative impact on people like wirth right citizenship for instance,

0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:21.639
<v Speaker 7>or federal workers who've been fired and so on.

0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:26.679
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I would expect you there's gonna be a lot

0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:29.200
<v Speaker 3>more discussion debate about this going forward on both sides

0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:32.920
<v Speaker 3>of the political aisle. Perhaps Harold Crenn, thank you so much.

0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:35.160
<v Speaker 3>He is professor of law a Chicago, Kent College of Law,

0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:37.560
<v Speaker 3>author of the book Presidential Powers. Joining us once again,

0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:40.560
<v Speaker 3>joining us several times here on Bloomberg. We're grateful to

0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:41.960
<v Speaker 3>his analysis.

0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:47.280
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live

0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:50.560
<v Speaker 1>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Applecarplay and

0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:53.600
<v Speaker 1>Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:57.399
<v Speaker 1>listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:00.600
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:03.840
<v Speaker 5>Alan McCartney's with us.

0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:09.520
<v Speaker 3>She's managing director and at also private wealth management at UBS.

0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:11.560
<v Speaker 5>She is working, and.

0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:13.800
<v Speaker 3>We're curious to see what she gets out of this event,

0:19:13.840 --> 0:19:16.159
<v Speaker 3>like when you come here help Hello, Yes, what do

0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:17.040
<v Speaker 3>you get out of an event?

0:19:17.080 --> 0:19:17.560
<v Speaker 9>Like you said this?

0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:23.560
<v Speaker 10>So UBS and I traffic at the intersection in liquidity

0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:26.440
<v Speaker 10>events and in individuals, and so what does that mean?

0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:30.160
<v Speaker 10>That's entrepreneurship and so one of the beautiful things about

0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:32.359
<v Speaker 10>this event and about our partnership with it is Michael

0:19:32.400 --> 0:19:35.280
<v Speaker 10>Lobe opened by saying, this is a celebration of entrepreneurs

0:19:35.280 --> 0:19:38.440
<v Speaker 10>and entrepreneurialism. Right. And so if you go through all

0:19:38.480 --> 0:19:41.240
<v Speaker 10>of the things that are happening in our world today,

0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:44.720
<v Speaker 10>all of the trends, deglobalization being a big one.

0:19:44.920 --> 0:19:45.360
<v Speaker 5>Right.

0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:49.600
<v Speaker 10>Where does wealth come from in this country? It's intellectual property.

0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:53.800
<v Speaker 10>It is six million businesses founded last year. It is

0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:58.960
<v Speaker 10>being at these events and having funders and founders meet,

0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:04.000
<v Speaker 10>providing very valuable networking opportunities and for us to be

0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:07.760
<v Speaker 10>able to be supportive of that community full stop is

0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:09.880
<v Speaker 10>really the bread and butter of what we do at ubs.

0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:13.720
<v Speaker 2>Does it give you new opportunities to bring new money

0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:16.720
<v Speaker 2>into your firm or is it more like okay, when

0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:20.880
<v Speaker 2>I'm allocating my client's assets. Yeah, I'm thinking about these

0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:24.960
<v Speaker 2>alternatives because I talked about these types of businesses with

0:20:25.080 --> 0:20:26.160
<v Speaker 2>people at this conference.

0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:27.919
<v Speaker 10>So yes, and yes, I would say there are three

0:20:27.960 --> 0:20:30.760
<v Speaker 10>things it does. It is certainly, you know, a prospecting,

0:20:31.000 --> 0:20:33.840
<v Speaker 10>right rich environment in terms of there are people here

0:20:34.160 --> 0:20:37.159
<v Speaker 10>who obviously we know the numbers of the success of

0:20:37.200 --> 0:20:40.000
<v Speaker 10>startups and franchises, but some of these people are going

0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:43.520
<v Speaker 10>to be the next unicorns, right, So there's that. The

0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:48.160
<v Speaker 10>second is it allows me to learn about AI or

0:20:48.240 --> 0:20:51.359
<v Speaker 10>why the founder of Tesla, you know, founded Tesla and

0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:55.000
<v Speaker 10>what he's thinking about now. And then the third thing

0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:59.400
<v Speaker 10>is it allows me to find new opportunities for myself

0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:02.879
<v Speaker 10>and my clients to be outside of this environment, both

0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:08.000
<v Speaker 10>educated and proximant to the new trends that are driving

0:21:08.040 --> 0:21:09.920
<v Speaker 10>sort of where the puck is and how we'll invest

0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:10.480
<v Speaker 10>for sure.

0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:13.040
<v Speaker 3>You know, it's funny you see the founder of Tesla,

0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:15.239
<v Speaker 3>because Elon Musk was not actually the founder, was he?

0:21:15.440 --> 0:21:18.000
<v Speaker 5>Well, so no, what did he did? He there?

0:21:18.160 --> 0:21:18.240
<v Speaker 1>He?

0:21:18.440 --> 0:21:23.199
<v Speaker 10>So it was very funny because the first panel was

0:21:23.240 --> 0:21:26.520
<v Speaker 10>someone who's just spent seven months in the White House. Yeah,

0:21:26.560 --> 0:21:29.160
<v Speaker 10>and so Elon Musk was a topic of conversation there

0:21:29.600 --> 0:21:32.840
<v Speaker 10>and then they next ran after was the founder of Tesla,

0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:37.879
<v Speaker 10>who I thought Eberhart, who very elegantly decided not to

0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:38.800
<v Speaker 10>answer that question.

0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:43.439
<v Speaker 3>He did, Yes, that's really funny. You know what's funny too,

0:21:43.600 --> 0:21:47.280
<v Speaker 3>is and I think about wealth management, you do have,

0:21:47.680 --> 0:21:50.239
<v Speaker 3>I'm assuming as clients a lot of folks that are

0:21:50.320 --> 0:21:53.760
<v Speaker 3>founders and whether they're looking to sell their company, find

0:21:53.760 --> 0:21:56.639
<v Speaker 3>a deal, or maybe you have other clients who have

0:21:56.760 --> 0:21:58.280
<v Speaker 3>money they want to put to work and they want

0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:00.280
<v Speaker 3>to have a piece of a company, a lot of

0:22:00.280 --> 0:22:01.560
<v Speaker 3>that is what goes on, right.

0:22:01.400 --> 0:22:02.639
<v Speaker 10>So a lot of that is what goes on. So

0:22:02.960 --> 0:22:05.320
<v Speaker 10>I think, like, if you think about the path of

0:22:05.359 --> 0:22:08.199
<v Speaker 10>a founder of an entrepreneur, right, you have an idea,

0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:11.600
<v Speaker 10>there's something disruptive, there's some challenge or problem you're trying

0:22:11.640 --> 0:22:14.359
<v Speaker 10>to solve in the world. And you know, we were

0:22:14.400 --> 0:22:17.120
<v Speaker 10>learning today that most people self fund that by using

0:22:17.240 --> 0:22:20.480
<v Speaker 10>credit cards, personal assets and their four to one K. Right,

0:22:20.600 --> 0:22:23.000
<v Speaker 10>they make less than one hundred thousand dollars for years

0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:26.320
<v Speaker 10>and years and years, and they are just so embedded

0:22:26.560 --> 0:22:29.679
<v Speaker 10>in their company and the mission and the branding that

0:22:29.720 --> 0:22:33.200
<v Speaker 10>they're not thinking about the tax consequences, whether they can

0:22:33.320 --> 0:22:36.800
<v Speaker 10>take advantage of qualified soalled business stock. Could the business

0:22:36.880 --> 0:22:39.520
<v Speaker 10>be stuck in a marriage in court and decided by

0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:41.879
<v Speaker 10>the state of California or Florida if they don't have

0:22:41.920 --> 0:22:45.680
<v Speaker 10>a prenup so all of the So what we do

0:22:45.880 --> 0:22:52.440
<v Speaker 10>is we say, look, if you are extremely successful, you're

0:22:52.480 --> 0:22:55.359
<v Speaker 10>going to get to a liquidity point where some lawyer

0:22:55.560 --> 0:22:58.840
<v Speaker 10>or some general counsel or Anderson Tax is going to say,

0:22:59.119 --> 0:23:02.040
<v Speaker 10>have you talked about the planning and this? And at

0:23:02.040 --> 0:23:05.399
<v Speaker 10>that point you can maybe add a couple percent of value.

0:23:05.760 --> 0:23:08.080
<v Speaker 10>But if you can find these people as they are

0:23:08.119 --> 0:23:10.440
<v Speaker 10>stuck in what I call the valley of death, sort

0:23:10.440 --> 0:23:12.879
<v Speaker 10>of that middle part of building a business, and you

0:23:12.920 --> 0:23:15.560
<v Speaker 10>can get an hour with them, just to say, there

0:23:15.560 --> 0:23:19.080
<v Speaker 10>are a couple things we can do from an investment perspective,

0:23:19.520 --> 0:23:22.600
<v Speaker 10>an entity perspective, and a tax perspective that if you

0:23:22.680 --> 0:23:25.560
<v Speaker 10>are as successful as you think you are, you can

0:23:25.840 --> 0:23:28.920
<v Speaker 10>protect yourself and investors and you can make your net

0:23:29.400 --> 0:23:31.440
<v Speaker 10>much bigger than what it would be otherwise.

0:23:31.800 --> 0:23:33.640
<v Speaker 2>As you know, entrepreneurs are not focused on this stuff

0:23:33.640 --> 0:23:36.679
<v Speaker 2>when no, no, no, So if they haven't taken advantage of

0:23:36.800 --> 0:23:39.840
<v Speaker 2>something like the QSBS as you talked about, which I

0:23:39.880 --> 0:23:42.800
<v Speaker 2>believe allows you tax free up to ten million dollars,

0:23:42.840 --> 0:23:43.920
<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's pretty remarkable.

0:23:43.960 --> 0:23:44.960
<v Speaker 5>It's pretty remarkable.

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:48.119
<v Speaker 10>There are some like there're three litmus tests that you

0:23:48.200 --> 0:23:49.680
<v Speaker 10>have to pass and if they.

0:23:49.640 --> 0:23:52.040
<v Speaker 2>Didn't set up the business that way initially can get

0:23:52.200 --> 0:23:54.640
<v Speaker 2>can they change it to actually get that benefit?

0:23:54.880 --> 0:23:58.560
<v Speaker 10>Yes, it becomes increasingly difficult as you take in capital,

0:23:58.640 --> 0:24:02.000
<v Speaker 10>you have more LPs, et cetera. But there are many

0:24:02.040 --> 0:24:04.439
<v Speaker 10>many ways to do it. And I think most people

0:24:04.520 --> 0:24:06.800
<v Speaker 10>know about that ten million dollar headline number.

0:24:07.119 --> 0:24:11.960
<v Speaker 5>But when the earlier you plan and the more that.

0:24:11.880 --> 0:24:16.680
<v Speaker 10>Can actually be protected by using different irs, discounting strategies,

0:24:16.720 --> 0:24:21.760
<v Speaker 10>et cetera. So I've seen many many times that protected.

0:24:23.119 --> 0:24:26.159
<v Speaker 10>But again, so our goal is to try to be

0:24:26.240 --> 0:24:29.520
<v Speaker 10>in front of entrepreneurs and support them not only in

0:24:29.720 --> 0:24:33.520
<v Speaker 10>funding and marketing and building their networks, but to try

0:24:33.560 --> 0:24:36.480
<v Speaker 10>to get them either to think about which is really challenging,

0:24:36.960 --> 0:24:39.919
<v Speaker 10>or get them to sort of open up themselves to

0:24:40.040 --> 0:24:44.520
<v Speaker 10>allowing someone to act on their behalf even when they're

0:24:44.560 --> 0:24:45.680
<v Speaker 10>not there yet.

0:24:46.200 --> 0:24:48.560
<v Speaker 3>So we'd be remiss to not ask you about kind

0:24:48.600 --> 0:24:51.280
<v Speaker 3>of the macro environment and what that means for entrepreneurs. Now,

0:24:51.280 --> 0:24:52.640
<v Speaker 3>we've got about a minute and a half left. Who

0:24:52.640 --> 0:24:54.600
<v Speaker 3>are you know, getting ready to wrap up the trade today?

0:24:55.160 --> 0:24:57.879
<v Speaker 3>It's been a volatile one again and we're also getting

0:24:57.880 --> 0:25:01.359
<v Speaker 3>ready to wrap up the trading week. You know, how

0:25:01.840 --> 0:25:03.399
<v Speaker 3>how do you feel about the environment? What do you

0:25:03.440 --> 0:25:04.920
<v Speaker 3>tell some of your clients?

0:25:04.960 --> 0:25:06.400
<v Speaker 5>So it's a really hard environment.

0:25:06.440 --> 0:25:09.720
<v Speaker 10>In the following so you look at your portfolio today,

0:25:09.920 --> 0:25:12.840
<v Speaker 10>private and public, and your public portfolio just hit an

0:25:12.840 --> 0:25:16.800
<v Speaker 10>all time high. Your private portfolio, you haven't gotten as

0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:19.800
<v Speaker 10>much capital back as you wanted. You've been in longer.

0:25:20.000 --> 0:25:22.960
<v Speaker 10>It feels a little, but your values, your marks are

0:25:23.040 --> 0:25:26.879
<v Speaker 10>still they feel okay too, but you feel pretty precarious

0:25:26.920 --> 0:25:31.080
<v Speaker 10>about both. And so that's affecting the way everybody at

0:25:31.080 --> 0:25:35.160
<v Speaker 10>every income level is spending, investing, traveling, you name it.

0:25:35.600 --> 0:25:39.640
<v Speaker 10>So the answer is our market is price to perfection,

0:25:40.040 --> 0:25:44.160
<v Speaker 10>from a trade perspective, from a geopolitical perspective, from a

0:25:44.320 --> 0:25:48.080
<v Speaker 10>big beautiful bill, and spending and deficit perspective. The next

0:25:48.240 --> 0:25:51.200
<v Speaker 10>I think six months in terms of the path that

0:25:51.320 --> 0:25:55.360
<v Speaker 10>the Fed takes with interest rates, whether our president actually

0:25:55.400 --> 0:25:58.240
<v Speaker 10>does put in a shadow FED, and what effect that has,

0:25:58.720 --> 0:26:01.440
<v Speaker 10>what happens in terms of the July ninth trade date,

0:26:01.760 --> 0:26:04.560
<v Speaker 10>right we're probably at about ten percent level of tariffs

0:26:04.640 --> 0:26:07.320
<v Speaker 10>right now. That's different than the thirty eight we were on,

0:26:07.720 --> 0:26:10.440
<v Speaker 10>you know, it's thinking about on April second. It's also

0:26:10.480 --> 0:26:12.840
<v Speaker 10>really different about the than the two point nine we

0:26:12.920 --> 0:26:15.639
<v Speaker 10>came into this president exactly. So there are a lot

0:26:15.680 --> 0:26:20.240
<v Speaker 10>of really macro trends that are going to very much

0:26:20.280 --> 0:26:22.879
<v Speaker 10>effect the next leg from here in both public and

0:26:22.880 --> 0:26:23.720
<v Speaker 10>private markets.

0:26:23.840 --> 0:26:27.000
<v Speaker 3>Great conversation, Elli, Thank you so much. Elli McCartney, Managing director,

0:26:27.000 --> 0:26:30.040
<v Speaker 3>Private Wealth Management over at UBS, joining us here on

0:26:30.040 --> 0:26:31.520
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Business Weekdaily.

0:26:31.600 --> 0:26:35.480
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch

0:26:35.560 --> 0:26:38.760
<v Speaker 1>us live weekday afternoons from two to five eastering. Listen

0:26:38.800 --> 0:26:42.320
<v Speaker 1>on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:26:42.520 --> 0:26:45.040
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:26:46.920 --> 0:26:49.640
<v Speaker 3>Michael Lobe is with us. This is his home, this

0:26:49.720 --> 0:26:52.440
<v Speaker 3>is his event. He's the founder and CEO of Lobe

0:26:52.480 --> 0:26:57.680
<v Speaker 3>dot NYC, and he co founded Uncharted a few years ago.

0:26:57.800 --> 0:26:59.199
<v Speaker 3>And I got to talk to you this morning, so

0:26:59.240 --> 0:27:01.080
<v Speaker 3>I feel kind of doubly blessed to get some more

0:27:01.080 --> 0:27:01.639
<v Speaker 3>time with you.

0:27:02.680 --> 0:27:04.840
<v Speaker 5>The event is underway. Tell us about what you're hearing

0:27:04.880 --> 0:27:05.560
<v Speaker 5>some of the things so.

0:27:05.560 --> 0:27:09.760
<v Speaker 11>Far, well, I think that there's a great deal of buzz.

0:27:10.880 --> 0:27:13.919
<v Speaker 11>Most people are saying exactly what you are, which is

0:27:13.920 --> 0:27:17.400
<v Speaker 11>that they're doubly blessed just to be here and get

0:27:17.440 --> 0:27:18.880
<v Speaker 11>to know everybody else.

0:27:18.920 --> 0:27:19.440
<v Speaker 9>But I mean, the.

0:27:21.320 --> 0:27:23.280
<v Speaker 11>If you were to take a look at the background,

0:27:23.320 --> 0:27:26.000
<v Speaker 11>you would see, you know, six hundred people talking to

0:27:27.359 --> 0:27:28.480
<v Speaker 11>six hundred other people.

0:27:29.520 --> 0:27:30.840
<v Speaker 9>It's quite the event.

0:27:31.119 --> 0:27:34.240
<v Speaker 11>And what we really want to do is foster relationships

0:27:34.720 --> 0:27:39.960
<v Speaker 11>between investors and companies, between companies and companies, and between

0:27:40.880 --> 0:27:43.760
<v Speaker 11>you know, CEOs looking for talent and talent looking for

0:27:43.800 --> 0:27:47.879
<v Speaker 11>CEOs so I think I think a good time is

0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:52.200
<v Speaker 11>being had by all. And certainly the weather has been

0:27:52.240 --> 0:27:54.879
<v Speaker 11>totally cooperating. I think you had someone to do with that,

0:27:54.960 --> 0:27:56.240
<v Speaker 11>So I thank you for that.

0:27:56.280 --> 0:27:57.080
<v Speaker 5>You're very welcome.

0:27:57.200 --> 0:28:00.920
<v Speaker 9>Right, So, yeah, little tiny wind, if you could take

0:28:00.960 --> 0:28:01.399
<v Speaker 9>that down.

0:28:01.440 --> 0:28:03.600
<v Speaker 2>Just or this is kind of perfect. It beats the

0:28:03.600 --> 0:28:05.640
<v Speaker 2>weather we had earlier this week. I was a little

0:28:05.640 --> 0:28:08.439
<v Speaker 2>concerned about that. You know, an event like this, You've

0:28:08.440 --> 0:28:10.080
<v Speaker 2>been doing this for a few years. It started during

0:28:10.119 --> 0:28:13.280
<v Speaker 2>the pandemic, started a lot smaller. How do you and

0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:16.120
<v Speaker 2>I heard you say earlier today and your partners say

0:28:16.160 --> 0:28:19.240
<v Speaker 2>this too, Noah, that he is running into people constantly.

0:28:19.240 --> 0:28:21.199
<v Speaker 2>You say, yeah, they raised money as a result of

0:28:21.240 --> 0:28:23.760
<v Speaker 2>being here. They found a co founder here, they found

0:28:23.800 --> 0:28:27.000
<v Speaker 2>employees here. How do you measure the success of an

0:28:27.040 --> 0:28:29.160
<v Speaker 2>event such as this in the days, weeks and months

0:28:29.200 --> 0:28:29.679
<v Speaker 2>following it?

0:28:29.800 --> 0:28:29.960
<v Speaker 7>Right?

0:28:30.000 --> 0:28:32.080
<v Speaker 9>I wish we could, because I should have a vig

0:28:32.200 --> 0:28:32.639
<v Speaker 9>on all that.

0:28:33.840 --> 0:28:35.760
<v Speaker 2>So we were just talking to Damon John, like, you know,

0:28:35.960 --> 0:28:38.080
<v Speaker 2>shark tank kind of thing. Maybe you could kind of

0:28:38.080 --> 0:28:38.480
<v Speaker 2>get in on that.

0:28:38.840 --> 0:28:40.000
<v Speaker 5>I don't know it for a long time.

0:28:41.440 --> 0:28:43.560
<v Speaker 9>So you know, I got to tell you.

0:28:43.640 --> 0:28:47.880
<v Speaker 11>We do solicit testimonials of exactly the things that you're

0:28:47.920 --> 0:28:50.960
<v Speaker 11>talking about. We have quite a few of people saying,

0:28:51.160 --> 0:28:56.080
<v Speaker 11>you know, I met my founder there about two years ago. No,

0:28:56.200 --> 0:28:59.880
<v Speaker 11>and I get an invitation and it was shrouded and missed.

0:29:00.280 --> 0:29:03.120
<v Speaker 11>And it was three women who had us go to

0:29:03.640 --> 0:29:05.719
<v Speaker 11>an event downtown.

0:29:05.920 --> 0:29:07.800
<v Speaker 9>And they brought us up on stage.

0:29:08.200 --> 0:29:11.040
<v Speaker 11>Everybody started a collap And what that was is these

0:29:11.040 --> 0:29:14.240
<v Speaker 11>were three women never met before. They were all, you know,

0:29:14.400 --> 0:29:18.400
<v Speaker 11>elite athletes, and they decided there should be a fund

0:29:19.200 --> 0:29:22.720
<v Speaker 11>supporting elite athletes that they had a different point of view,

0:29:23.200 --> 0:29:26.720
<v Speaker 11>a different sense of how to compete, and they all

0:29:26.720 --> 0:29:29.920
<v Speaker 11>got along very very well, and that thesis led to

0:29:30.000 --> 0:29:32.320
<v Speaker 11>a fifty million dollar fund. So it's that type of

0:29:32.360 --> 0:29:34.360
<v Speaker 11>thing that you know, really propels us.

0:29:34.480 --> 0:29:36.360
<v Speaker 3>Well, talk to us about you know capital, How much

0:29:36.400 --> 0:29:37.520
<v Speaker 3>is out there for startups?

0:29:37.560 --> 0:29:37.800
<v Speaker 9>Wow?

0:29:38.640 --> 0:29:41.280
<v Speaker 11>You know, it's funny things go in cycles. As you know,

0:29:42.080 --> 0:29:47.240
<v Speaker 11>this is not an up cycle for capital formation. Last

0:29:47.480 --> 0:29:50.400
<v Speaker 11>numbers I looked at and they're a little bit stale,

0:29:50.440 --> 0:29:52.479
<v Speaker 11>but you know, down sixty or seventy percent.

0:29:53.360 --> 0:29:55.400
<v Speaker 9>Certainly the secondary market.

0:29:55.240 --> 0:29:59.239
<v Speaker 11>If that's any indication at all, does illustrate that, you know,

0:29:59.520 --> 0:30:03.200
<v Speaker 11>there's a lot lot of illiquidity looking to get liquid right,

0:30:03.920 --> 0:30:07.760
<v Speaker 11>not nearly as frothy as it used to be, was

0:30:08.240 --> 0:30:10.920
<v Speaker 11>I pos even though that's starting to unlock a little bit.

0:30:10.960 --> 0:30:14.800
<v Speaker 9>So no, it's it is hard and the money does.

0:30:14.680 --> 0:30:18.000
<v Speaker 11>Gravitate these days to AI, so you need, you know,

0:30:18.080 --> 0:30:18.800
<v Speaker 11>if you have so win.

0:30:18.760 --> 0:30:20.680
<v Speaker 5>There is an idea when there is a startup, that's

0:30:20.680 --> 0:30:21.200
<v Speaker 5>where it goes.

0:30:21.320 --> 0:30:22.400
<v Speaker 9>It goes there, right.

0:30:22.520 --> 0:30:27.520
<v Speaker 11>And what folks don't I think, really realize or appreciate

0:30:27.800 --> 0:30:32.880
<v Speaker 11>is the forces at play in venture and venture funding,

0:30:32.920 --> 0:30:36.360
<v Speaker 11>a venture capital which is I sometimes call it a

0:30:36.400 --> 0:30:40.240
<v Speaker 11>beauty contest, and that is because there's one breakout winner

0:30:40.360 --> 0:30:43.680
<v Speaker 11>in a category and then all the LPs are asking

0:30:43.720 --> 0:30:48.320
<v Speaker 11>their gps you know, what is your AI strategy? And

0:30:48.400 --> 0:30:50.120
<v Speaker 11>if the answer is you know, we think it's a

0:30:50.120 --> 0:30:53.040
<v Speaker 11>little over sold. We think it's a little bit you know, frothy.

0:30:53.760 --> 0:30:56.320
<v Speaker 11>Whereas there's going to be a couple of winners and

0:30:56.360 --> 0:30:59.440
<v Speaker 11>a lot of losers, we're taking a wait and see attitude.

0:30:59.760 --> 0:31:02.200
<v Speaker 11>The answer is bye bye, I'm bringing my money to

0:31:02.280 --> 0:31:04.960
<v Speaker 11>that fund that made that investment. So a lot of

0:31:05.000 --> 0:31:08.360
<v Speaker 11>pressure for them to jump in. And it's in those

0:31:08.400 --> 0:31:11.760
<v Speaker 11>situations that you know, not so good deals are made.

0:31:12.080 --> 0:31:15.560
<v Speaker 2>Right, So yeah, does it you know in terms of cycles,

0:31:15.560 --> 0:31:17.920
<v Speaker 2>does it feel like this AI cycle is different than

0:31:17.960 --> 0:31:20.720
<v Speaker 2>previous tech hype cycles? And the reason I ask and look,

0:31:20.720 --> 0:31:22.600
<v Speaker 2>nobody wants to hear or utter the phrase this time

0:31:22.680 --> 0:31:24.560
<v Speaker 2>is different. But if you look out at the private

0:31:24.560 --> 0:31:27.720
<v Speaker 2>markets right now, you've got skyhag valuations, I think many

0:31:27.720 --> 0:31:33.400
<v Speaker 2>would argue for open AI right, for anthropic, for perplexity.

0:31:34.120 --> 0:31:36.880
<v Speaker 2>You have meta platforms coming in and dropping billions of

0:31:36.920 --> 0:31:39.280
<v Speaker 2>dollars to buy forty nine percent of an AI company

0:31:39.280 --> 0:31:42.960
<v Speaker 2>that barely existed. You have founders being poached. We're talking

0:31:42.960 --> 0:31:48.360
<v Speaker 2>one hundred million dollar signing bonuses. Yeah, force an individual

0:31:48.440 --> 0:31:50.040
<v Speaker 2>to go to a large company.

0:31:50.360 --> 0:31:50.520
<v Speaker 9>Right.

0:31:51.080 --> 0:31:53.360
<v Speaker 11>So I'm I look at my mailbox every day. I'm

0:31:53.360 --> 0:31:55.920
<v Speaker 11>looking for my hundred million dollar check hasn't come in yet.

0:31:56.080 --> 0:31:58.920
<v Speaker 2>Right, So, if you're going to range, you know, you know,

0:31:59.320 --> 0:32:01.880
<v Speaker 2>make make your way your web browser or your you know,

0:32:01.920 --> 0:32:03.960
<v Speaker 2>your website dot ai and maybe it'll happen.

0:32:04.000 --> 0:32:07.560
<v Speaker 11>I don't know, don so to me, and there's not

0:32:07.640 --> 0:32:11.360
<v Speaker 11>quite answering your question, but I'm it's all about me.

0:32:11.440 --> 0:32:14.320
<v Speaker 11>So I'm going to answer it from my perspective, which

0:32:14.440 --> 0:32:17.160
<v Speaker 11>is that to me, it feels different. Now, what does

0:32:17.200 --> 0:32:21.240
<v Speaker 11>it feel like I've been around for long enough, so

0:32:21.480 --> 0:32:25.360
<v Speaker 11>I'm something of the elder statement here statesman here, I've

0:32:25.360 --> 0:32:27.600
<v Speaker 11>been around long enough that I've seen a few cycles.

0:32:28.360 --> 0:32:29.600
<v Speaker 9>This feels like.

0:32:29.560 --> 0:32:32.120
<v Speaker 11>The late nineties and the late nineties was the advent

0:32:32.160 --> 0:32:35.680
<v Speaker 11>of the internet, right, and it feels this profound.

0:32:36.640 --> 0:32:39.160
<v Speaker 9>Now. You know, people can say.

0:32:38.960 --> 0:32:41.000
<v Speaker 11>Well, you know, if we look back two or three years,

0:32:41.040 --> 0:32:43.880
<v Speaker 11>it was NFTs and that was a false positive. And

0:32:43.960 --> 0:32:46.920
<v Speaker 11>before that it was blockchain, which was sort of a

0:32:47.040 --> 0:32:50.080
<v Speaker 11>false positive. And before that it was cannabis, and before

0:32:50.120 --> 0:32:54.560
<v Speaker 11>that it was bitcoin. And but this one feels real,

0:32:54.800 --> 0:32:59.880
<v Speaker 11>and this as the possibility of disrupting entire industries. I

0:33:00.080 --> 0:33:03.880
<v Speaker 11>had breakfast, by the way with a friend this past week.

0:33:04.280 --> 0:33:07.560
<v Speaker 11>He has a unicorn business is worth almost two billion dollars.

0:33:07.600 --> 0:33:10.480
<v Speaker 11>He has two hundred and seventy people, and he said, Michael,

0:33:10.480 --> 0:33:12.720
<v Speaker 11>by year end, it's one hundred and twenty.

0:33:12.560 --> 0:33:14.880
<v Speaker 2>Meaning he is going to lay people off because AI

0:33:14.920 --> 0:33:16.240
<v Speaker 2>has become celefficient, a.

0:33:16.360 --> 0:33:19.560
<v Speaker 11>Fast growing company, super fast growing company.

0:33:19.880 --> 0:33:22.360
<v Speaker 9>That's really scary, I know, but that's what's going on.

0:33:22.680 --> 0:33:24.880
<v Speaker 2>And so do you think so do you think there

0:33:24.960 --> 0:33:26.640
<v Speaker 2>is something? Do you think there is something to what

0:33:26.720 --> 0:33:30.880
<v Speaker 2>Dario Amaday has said who's the founder of Anthropic. Among

0:33:30.920 --> 0:33:34.520
<v Speaker 2>the co founders of Anthropic, there are many that in

0:33:34.560 --> 0:33:37.400
<v Speaker 2>a couple of years we're going to see a serious

0:33:37.480 --> 0:33:40.520
<v Speaker 2>uptick in unemployment as a result of this tech, Like

0:33:40.640 --> 0:33:43.080
<v Speaker 2>this is something policymakers need to be freaking out about

0:33:43.120 --> 0:33:43.440
<v Speaker 2>right now.

0:33:43.560 --> 0:33:46.960
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, well, look, I respectfully disagree, and all I have

0:33:47.080 --> 0:33:50.560
<v Speaker 11>to go on is history and starting in the seventeen hundreds,

0:33:50.640 --> 0:33:53.320
<v Speaker 11>right when there was that industrial revolution in England and

0:33:53.480 --> 0:33:55.840
<v Speaker 11>we burned down all the factories with a spinning wheel,

0:33:55.880 --> 0:33:59.560
<v Speaker 11>thinking everybody would be unemployed. That has not happened, but

0:34:00.240 --> 0:34:06.400
<v Speaker 11>markets employment, people have an amazing ability to retrain themselves

0:34:06.520 --> 0:34:09.520
<v Speaker 11>find the opportunities. In the end, I think we're going

0:34:09.600 --> 0:34:11.560
<v Speaker 11>to be okay. Is there going to be some displacement.

0:34:11.600 --> 0:34:15.120
<v Speaker 11>There's always some displacement. I hope you find out find

0:34:15.200 --> 0:34:17.480
<v Speaker 11>something that we can have less lawyers, because we'd use

0:34:17.560 --> 0:34:20.680
<v Speaker 11>less warriors. But I think at the end of the day,

0:34:22.120 --> 0:34:25.320
<v Speaker 11>you know, brilliant people are going to find find their way.

0:34:25.480 --> 0:34:29.000
<v Speaker 11>And the people you're talking about are very smart people, engineers.

0:34:29.360 --> 0:34:31.439
<v Speaker 11>They will find their way. We're always going to need them.

0:34:31.960 --> 0:34:34.800
<v Speaker 11>And you know, this is going to be like every

0:34:34.880 --> 0:34:36.680
<v Speaker 11>other labor saving prediction.

0:34:37.320 --> 0:34:38.800
<v Speaker 9>This is going to be just another one.

0:34:38.920 --> 0:34:40.839
<v Speaker 3>All right, We're gonna unfortunately have to leave it there.

0:34:40.840 --> 0:34:42.759
<v Speaker 3>But thank you for inviting us. This has been fun.

0:34:43.360 --> 0:34:48.360
<v Speaker 9>Thank you for inviting me. Guys, I believe this is yours.

0:34:49.680 --> 0:34:51.959
<v Speaker 11>Oh that's not what they told me. They said after today,

0:34:52.000 --> 0:34:55.160
<v Speaker 11>it's all yours. That's not right, Michael, I wouldn't be

0:34:55.239 --> 0:34:55.680
<v Speaker 11>so nice.

0:34:56.080 --> 0:34:57.080
<v Speaker 10>Well, the key is please.

0:34:57.600 --> 0:35:01.040
<v Speaker 5>Michael Low, founder and CEO of Low NYC.

0:35:02.280 --> 0:35:07.719
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:35:07.880 --> 0:35:11.960
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0:35:11.960 --> 0:35:16.120
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0:35:16.280 --> 0:35:20.080
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0:35:20.280 --> 0:35:23.120
<v Speaker 1>You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>and always on the Bloomberg terminal