Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: The single best idea out on YouTube podcast I'm an
Speaker 2: old fart, so I thought Apple podcast was like completely
Speaker 2: monopolizing the podcast market for twenty twenty four. Tom Keene
Speaker 2: was wrong, wrong, wrong, Coming on strong as YouTube podcasts,
Speaker 2: I've been looking at it more and more, and I
Speaker 2: have to admit, you know, Joe Rogan's at the top.
Speaker 2: I don't know why I'm not, but there it is.
Speaker 2: It's YouTube podcasts, and with all we're doing on YouTube,
Speaker 2: I really have to mention that here for single best idea,
Speaker 2: what do we got to get a great city guest?
Speaker 2: Today it's a holiday lengthened work week, three day three
Speaker 2: days Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. I'm off Friday. Paul Sweeney leading
Speaker 2: the charge on Friday, which will be important, but huge
Speaker 2: day Wednesday of economic data as well. We've beginner to
Speaker 2: the politics this market lift that we saw with the
Speaker 2: announcement of a Treasury Secretary designate that I guess made
Speaker 2: Wall Street happy. Wendy Schiller of Brown University the Tounman
Speaker 2: Center on our politics forward.
Speaker 1: The statements will be bold magnitude and the product will
Speaker 1: be very gradual because the bureaucracy is, you know, pretty
Speaker 1: much invented by Thomas Jefferson.
Speaker 2: That's what we got the name.
Speaker 1: Bureau lots of drawers bureaucracy.
Speaker 2: I think that's what.
Speaker 1: You're going to see. You're going to see lots of statements.
Speaker 1: But moving this behemoth that is the federal government is
Speaker 1: a very slow and difficult process. Even while Reagan couldn't
Speaker 1: be as successful as he wanted, he couldn't get rid
Speaker 1: of the Department of Education, for example. So I think
Speaker 1: you'll see lots of broad statements. I think the impact
Speaker 1: will be slow. But the problem with the Republicans.
Speaker 2: If it's too slow, you bump right up against twenty six.
Speaker 1: So the Republicans need to get whatever pain is going
Speaker 1: to happen has to happen this year, not next year.
Speaker 2: Wendes's Schiller there, and I will. This is something we'll
Speaker 2: talk with our political team about. Is David Gerra back
Speaker 2: from Brazil. I don't he's back, like came into the
Speaker 2: Gulf stream last night three fun filed days after the
Speaker 2: g twenty meetings. But we'll talk to David Gerra and
Speaker 2: look at his big take I should point out as well.
Speaker 2: We'll talk to mister Gurra about this whole timeline thing.
Speaker 2: And what I read over the weekend from numerous sources
Speaker 2: is the president elect doesn't have to get elected again,
Speaker 2: or I believe every House member has to get elected again,
Speaker 2: and the third of the Senate has to get elected
Speaker 2: in two years. It's an amazing dynamic. That was brilliant
Speaker 2: from Wendy Schuler. Thank you for the love notes and
Speaker 2: hate notes. I'm Professor Schuler. They do fill up the inbox.
Speaker 2: Francis Donald with us very popular, really a completely dance
Speaker 2: note on the state of the American economy, issues of
Speaker 2: the RBC capital markets at Royal Bank of Canada. She
Speaker 2: comes out of Montreal, joined us in the studio today.
Speaker 2: Francis Donald on immigration.
Speaker 3: I'm frankly more focused on immigration policy than I am
Speaker 3: on tariffs. Okay, tariffs are a price level shock. We
Speaker 3: got a playbook for tariffs. We generally know what happens.
Speaker 3: Every economist with their salt knows a ton about washing
Speaker 3: machines from twenty eighteen. But that's not what's going to
Speaker 3: keep an economistep at night. That's a one time inflation shock.
Speaker 3: What worries us is labor supply shortages. And persistent wage growth.
Speaker 3: That's the type of more nefarious inflation that creeps in
Speaker 3: and requires much higher interest rates. And we are heading
Speaker 3: into a period where we expect to see well, no,
Speaker 3: we've already seen record retirements, record retire We have three
Speaker 3: retirees for every one new entrant looking for work in
Speaker 3: the United States. It is really sweat.
Speaker 2: Why it is that? What's the why on that's stunning statistics.
Speaker 3: It's just demographics. Tom, people get older, they retire.
Speaker 2: COVID, No, they do.
Speaker 3: Really, that's what happens. It's hard for us to accept,
Speaker 3: but no, it's demographics, and we you know, my whole life.
Speaker 3: Demographics is something that we thought about as being relevant
Speaker 3: over a five to ten twenty year horizon. It is
Speaker 3: relevant in twenty twenty five. It's also why that unemployment
Speaker 3: rate is staying very low. It's mechanically pushing down and
Speaker 3: it puts pressure on the FED.
Speaker 2: Francis Donald at URBC, I can't say enough about this, folks,
Speaker 2: And it's really overlooked within media, within the zeitgeist. Demographic economics.
Speaker 2: The Laureate Angus Deaton is so good on this and others.
Speaker 2: It's sort of a British thing. You go to like
Speaker 2: London School of Economics, Cambridge, Oxford, Bristol, Durham, and they
Speaker 2: live an overarching demographic study of economics. It folds into
Speaker 2: nominal GDP, it folds hugely into product activity. Francis Donald
Speaker 2: there on. That's stunning. Three to one ratio study of
Speaker 2: retirement as well. There's no retirement here. We get Tuesday,
Speaker 2: very busy day. Wednesday's a ginormous economic day as we
Speaker 2: move in America to the Thanksgiving holiday. On YouTube podcast
Speaker 2: on Apple podcasts. This is the single best idea