WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Wendy Schiller & Frances Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>The single best idea out on YouTube podcast I'm an

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<v Speaker 2>old fart, so I thought Apple podcast was like completely

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<v Speaker 2>monopolizing the podcast market for twenty twenty four. Tom Keene

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<v Speaker 2>was wrong, wrong, wrong, Coming on strong as YouTube podcasts,

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<v Speaker 2>I've been looking at it more and more, and I

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<v Speaker 2>have to admit, you know, Joe Rogan's at the top.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know why I'm not, but there it is.

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<v Speaker 2>It's YouTube podcasts, and with all we're doing on YouTube,

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<v Speaker 2>I really have to mention that here for single best idea,

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<v Speaker 2>what do we got to get a great city guest?

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<v Speaker 2>Today it's a holiday lengthened work week, three day three

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<v Speaker 2>days Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. I'm off Friday. Paul Sweeney leading

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<v Speaker 2>the charge on Friday, which will be important, but huge

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<v Speaker 2>day Wednesday of economic data as well. We've beginner to

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<v Speaker 2>the politics this market lift that we saw with the

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<v Speaker 2>announcement of a Treasury Secretary designate that I guess made

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<v Speaker 2>Wall Street happy. Wendy Schiller of Brown University the Tounman

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<v Speaker 2>Center on our politics forward.

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<v Speaker 1>The statements will be bold magnitude and the product will

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<v Speaker 1>be very gradual because the bureaucracy is, you know, pretty

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<v Speaker 1>much invented by Thomas Jefferson.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what we got the name.

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<v Speaker 1>Bureau lots of drawers bureaucracy.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's what.

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<v Speaker 1>You're going to see. You're going to see lots of statements.

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<v Speaker 1>But moving this behemoth that is the federal government is

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<v Speaker 1>a very slow and difficult process. Even while Reagan couldn't

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<v Speaker 1>be as successful as he wanted, he couldn't get rid

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<v Speaker 1>of the Department of Education, for example. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>you'll see lots of broad statements. I think the impact

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<v Speaker 1>will be slow. But the problem with the Republicans.

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<v Speaker 2>If it's too slow, you bump right up against twenty six.

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<v Speaker 1>So the Republicans need to get whatever pain is going

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<v Speaker 1>to happen has to happen this year, not next year.

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<v Speaker 2>Wendes's Schiller there, and I will. This is something we'll

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<v Speaker 2>talk with our political team about. Is David Gerra back

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<v Speaker 2>from Brazil. I don't he's back, like came into the

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<v Speaker 2>Gulf stream last night three fun filed days after the

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<v Speaker 2>g twenty meetings. But we'll talk to David Gerra and

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<v Speaker 2>look at his big take I should point out as well.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll talk to mister Gurra about this whole timeline thing.

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<v Speaker 2>And what I read over the weekend from numerous sources

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<v Speaker 2>is the president elect doesn't have to get elected again,

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<v Speaker 2>or I believe every House member has to get elected again,

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<v Speaker 2>and the third of the Senate has to get elected

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<v Speaker 2>in two years. It's an amazing dynamic. That was brilliant

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<v Speaker 2>from Wendy Schuler. Thank you for the love notes and

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<v Speaker 2>hate notes. I'm Professor Schuler. They do fill up the inbox.

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<v Speaker 2>Francis Donald with us very popular, really a completely dance

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<v Speaker 2>note on the state of the American economy, issues of

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<v Speaker 2>the RBC capital markets at Royal Bank of Canada. She

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<v Speaker 2>comes out of Montreal, joined us in the studio today.

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<v Speaker 2>Francis Donald on immigration.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm frankly more focused on immigration policy than I am

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<v Speaker 3>on tariffs. Okay, tariffs are a price level shock. We

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<v Speaker 3>got a playbook for tariffs. We generally know what happens.

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<v Speaker 3>Every economist with their salt knows a ton about washing

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<v Speaker 3>machines from twenty eighteen. But that's not what's going to

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<v Speaker 3>keep an economistep at night. That's a one time inflation shock.

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<v Speaker 3>What worries us is labor supply shortages. And persistent wage growth.

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<v Speaker 3>That's the type of more nefarious inflation that creeps in

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<v Speaker 3>and requires much higher interest rates. And we are heading

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<v Speaker 3>into a period where we expect to see well, no,

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<v Speaker 3>we've already seen record retirements, record retire We have three

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<v Speaker 3>retirees for every one new entrant looking for work in

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<v Speaker 3>the United States. It is really sweat.

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<v Speaker 2>Why it is that? What's the why on that's stunning statistics.

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<v Speaker 3>It's just demographics. Tom, people get older, they retire.

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<v Speaker 2>COVID, No, they do.

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<v Speaker 3>Really, that's what happens. It's hard for us to accept,

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<v Speaker 3>but no, it's demographics, and we you know, my whole life.

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<v Speaker 3>Demographics is something that we thought about as being relevant

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<v Speaker 3>over a five to ten twenty year horizon. It is

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<v Speaker 3>relevant in twenty twenty five. It's also why that unemployment

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<v Speaker 3>rate is staying very low. It's mechanically pushing down and

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<v Speaker 3>it puts pressure on the FED.

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<v Speaker 2>Francis Donald at URBC, I can't say enough about this, folks,

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<v Speaker 2>And it's really overlooked within media, within the zeitgeist. Demographic economics.

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<v Speaker 2>The Laureate Angus Deaton is so good on this and others.

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<v Speaker 2>It's sort of a British thing. You go to like

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<v Speaker 2>London School of Economics, Cambridge, Oxford, Bristol, Durham, and they

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<v Speaker 2>live an overarching demographic study of economics. It folds into

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<v Speaker 2>nominal GDP, it folds hugely into product activity. Francis Donald

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<v Speaker 2>there on. That's stunning. Three to one ratio study of

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<v Speaker 2>retirement as well. There's no retirement here. We get Tuesday,

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<v Speaker 2>very busy day. Wednesday's a ginormous economic day as we

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<v Speaker 2>move in America to the Thanksgiving holiday. On YouTube podcast

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<v Speaker 2>on Apple podcasts. This is the single best idea