WEBVTT - Nicholas Colas: If You're Crying, You Should Be Buying (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com the radio plus mobile laps and on your radio.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a Bloomberg Business flag from Bloomberg World Headquarters.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Charlie Pellet. The DAL, the SMP nestak all declining

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<v Speaker 1>with the SMP five hundred index now slumping seventy points

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<v Speaker 1>to two thousand forty two and dropped there of three

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<v Speaker 1>point three percent. Stocks are tumbling the most since January,

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<v Speaker 1>joining US sell off in global risk assets on speculation

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<v Speaker 1>that the UK decision to leave the EU will hamper

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<v Speaker 1>worldwide growth. Down Industrials down five hundred sixty five points

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<v Speaker 1>now a dropped there of three point one percent. They

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<v Speaker 1>have been down as many as six hundred thirty points.

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<v Speaker 1>Nestack down a hundred and ninety three points to dropped

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<v Speaker 1>there of three point nine percent, the tenure yield one

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<v Speaker 1>point five seven percent, Gold surging sixty dollars, the ounce

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<v Speaker 1>the thirteen twenty three an advanced there of four point

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<v Speaker 1>eight percent and crewed down four point seven sixty seven barrel.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Charlie Pellett. That's a bloom Bread business flash. Thank

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<v Speaker 1>you very much. Charlie Pellett. It is time now for

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<v Speaker 1>the e t F report. Let's go to Bloomberg's Catherine Cowdery.

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<v Speaker 1>The gold rushes on after the UK voted to withdraw

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<v Speaker 1>from the European Union. Gold has rallied the most since

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<v Speaker 1>the height of the two thousand and eight global financial crisis,

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<v Speaker 1>up as much as eight point one percent today. This

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<v Speaker 1>is reflected in the e t F industry. GLD, the

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<v Speaker 1>spider gold chairs has been rallying and it's traded more

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<v Speaker 1>than three billion dollars worth of shares today, about four

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<v Speaker 1>times it's daily average. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Valtuna says

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<v Speaker 1>it's been a good year for g l D. G

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<v Speaker 1>l D is now up to about eleven billion influence.

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<v Speaker 1>That's double any other e t F on the year.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just the gold kind of year it has been

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<v Speaker 1>from day one, and I suit with the volume today

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<v Speaker 1>and the performance, I think we see another two billion

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<v Speaker 1>into gold in the next week. Given the trading volume today,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're talking about thirteen billion flows. That's about a

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<v Speaker 1>thirty percent increase in the size of g l D.

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<v Speaker 1>In addition to g l D, other e t s

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<v Speaker 1>have been gaining, including the iPath SP short term futures

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<v Speaker 1>e t N or v x X. It's been up

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<v Speaker 1>more than and the I shares twenty plus. Here Treasury

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<v Speaker 1>bond e t F taker t l T is also

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<v Speaker 1>gaining up as much as three point three. That's your

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg ETF report. I'm Katherine Cowdery. This is taking Stock

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<v Speaker 1>with Kathleen Hayes and Pin Fox on Bloomberg Radio. Less

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<v Speaker 1>than twenty four hours have passed since this historic vote,

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<v Speaker 1>since the tally came in a vote to leave the

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<v Speaker 1>European Union. Despite many polls that showed how close this

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<v Speaker 1>vote was, seems like many investors around the world, and

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of bookies for that matter, was still betting

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<v Speaker 1>that the UK would vote to stay. Now everyone continues

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<v Speaker 1>to sort this out. The the earthquake has happened. What

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<v Speaker 1>is the aftermath? Nicholas is here, chief market strategist at

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<v Speaker 1>converge X. It's a global oak rich company, bakes right

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<v Speaker 1>here in New York and he's been looking at Brexit,

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<v Speaker 1>it flows at et S and a whole lot more

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<v Speaker 1>for us. Nick, welcome and thank you for coming into

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<v Speaker 1>studio with us. Thank you so your immediate reaction to this.

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<v Speaker 1>Like everybody else, it's a very big wow. It was

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<v Speaker 1>now what was expected. And as the votes came in

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<v Speaker 1>last night, I think we're all glued to the TV

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<v Speaker 1>until one or two in the morning and our little

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<v Speaker 1>groggy this morning, and so it's still hard to believe

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<v Speaker 1>it's happened, but it has. Alright, well it's happened, so

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<v Speaker 1>now what. So now you know you have to revert

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<v Speaker 1>to some basic rules in order to trade this market

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<v Speaker 1>and make some money. Rule number one of a blow up,

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<v Speaker 1>as you never buy the first day of a blow up.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a three day rule in trading, and it's there

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<v Speaker 1>for a reason. You don't buy the first day and

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<v Speaker 1>you don't buy new lows, and you're seeing some of

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<v Speaker 1>both in the current markets. So at this point, and

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<v Speaker 1>this is totally logically what we're expecting through the Tuesday

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<v Speaker 1>council meeting with the EU, you have to wait and

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<v Speaker 1>see what the second, third, fourth, and fifth, fifth feet

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<v Speaker 1>are to fall before you can factor things. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>why you're not seeing a lot of incremental volume today

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<v Speaker 1>on top of this big surprise and the Russell rebalance

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<v Speaker 1>that we still have to go through the clothes with.

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<v Speaker 1>So traders are understanding that and they're waiting to see

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<v Speaker 1>what happens next. I'm so glad how you say that,

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<v Speaker 1>because that's what strikes me. There's a meteor reaction. And

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<v Speaker 1>then seems to me, you say, and I've asked. I

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<v Speaker 1>asked Kit Jukes this morning for societation and roll or

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<v Speaker 1>actually this afternoon, would you buy sterling here? He said, well,

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<v Speaker 1>not yet. It's not crazy to ask that question. And

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<v Speaker 1>we just just discussed it with another guest. But um,

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<v Speaker 1>as you sorted out, are you what what about flows?

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<v Speaker 1>Right now? You said, so far volume is low. Do

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<v Speaker 1>we wait to see over the weekend in Monday? Who

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<v Speaker 1>you know sticks their toe into the water first? In

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<v Speaker 1>which direction they stick it? Absolutely, Because if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at say et F flows a year to date, the

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<v Speaker 1>two major trends. The first obviously is gold. Between g

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<v Speaker 1>l D and i AU. They own more gold in

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<v Speaker 1>their vaults than all but seven countries around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>That's amazing, over a thousand metric tons. And it's because

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<v Speaker 1>of the fifteen billion dollars of inflows year to date.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's that's the easy one to call out. The

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<v Speaker 1>harder one is, and I think it will be that

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<v Speaker 1>investors go back into US defuities before either developed economy Europe,

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<v Speaker 1>Asia or emerging economies, and you've seen that in the

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<v Speaker 1>flows as well. Over the last month, U S E

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<v Speaker 1>t F s US Equity E t F saw seventeen

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars of inflows, even even as equities from around

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<v Speaker 1>the world we're still seeing outflows. That trend I think continues.

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<v Speaker 1>So look for the SMP to bottom first and then

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<v Speaker 1>other markets, even though obviously the volatility is in other

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<v Speaker 1>markets to begin with. Alright, So Nicholas, let's say that

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<v Speaker 1>we don't get any clarity and we keep using that

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<v Speaker 1>word uncertainty from now until we're certain, which will be never.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there an asset class that will benefit in addition

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<v Speaker 1>to gold from this uncertainty. Well, again, the easy one

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<v Speaker 1>to call out is fixed income bonds, especially if you

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<v Speaker 1>look at expectations for interest rate moves by the Fed.

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<v Speaker 1>They've collapsed today and for the first time, I think,

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<v Speaker 1>at least in the last couple of years, you're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>handicapping on a rate cut. They're small so far, five

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<v Speaker 1>to seven percent according to FED fronts futures, but you

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<v Speaker 1>are seeing some speculation to Fed us to cut. So

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<v Speaker 1>fixed income is the logical next up, the next up

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<v Speaker 1>after that again US equities, particularly large cap US equities,

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<v Speaker 1>because look at the spread between SMP yields two point

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<v Speaker 1>one and a ten year now struggling to hold one

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<v Speaker 1>and a half percent, which is going to do better

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<v Speaker 1>over the next ten years, I think is still going

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<v Speaker 1>to be the SMP. So it's in that order. It's okay,

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<v Speaker 1>goal is the easy one, then fixed incomes pretty easy,

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<v Speaker 1>and then US stocks bottom after that, and then the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the world begins to catch up. This is

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<v Speaker 1>I'm glad. Well, it's interesting, cause that's what I've been

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<v Speaker 1>asking myself all morning, all day, you know, because it's

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<v Speaker 1>one of two things are rices three things could happen,

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<v Speaker 1>but still everybody could have like, oh my gosh, the

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<v Speaker 1>world is ending. And if you talk to people who

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<v Speaker 1>are who are British or like our our guests, who's

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<v Speaker 1>part of the EU Parliament, who's Irish, there there's not

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<v Speaker 1>They're not just looking at things financially. There's sort of

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<v Speaker 1>an emotional shock, right, But when you get past that,

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<v Speaker 1>when you have a big drop in something, you say,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe it's overdone, Maybe people got out of positions,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe they went into it. So badly right that they

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<v Speaker 1>had to do some selling. Now you're back to even maybe,

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<v Speaker 1>And then you say to me, sing seems still seems

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<v Speaker 1>to me it's logical to say, what's a buy here? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at say, well, look at what our

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<v Speaker 1>customers were doing on our desk all week. They were

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<v Speaker 1>positioning for a remain vote, and there was a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of buying going into Friday's vote. Obviously Thursday's vote, and

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<v Speaker 1>obviously that didn't work out. So a bit of today's

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<v Speaker 1>action is just the unwind of those bets that didn't

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<v Speaker 1>work out. Uh. And then in order of what's a

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<v Speaker 1>look at and say, again, the US, by virtue of

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<v Speaker 1>our still continued reasonable growth, reasonable profit margins, good cash

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<v Speaker 1>flow from US corporations have the best shot of bottoming first,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, they have the best shot of bottoming. First,

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<v Speaker 1>Let's just step back and say, if your portfolio was

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<v Speaker 1>not arranged to deal with this potential vote to leave,

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<v Speaker 1>what should you do. The first thing you've got to

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<v Speaker 1>do is think about why that wasn't the case. So

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<v Speaker 1>was it that you didn't known enough hedges in the

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<v Speaker 1>form of gold or fixed income? Were you too heavily inequities?

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<v Speaker 1>That's a warning sign you're taking too much equity risk

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<v Speaker 1>and rebalance that portfolio back to something like the classic

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<v Speaker 1>sixty forty, which is my default value always for a

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<v Speaker 1>portfolio composition. Or were you too exposed to emerging markets

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<v Speaker 1>for example, in which case you've got a tailback that risk.

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<v Speaker 1>Emerging markets versus developed versus US US is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be the best game in town now. If you want

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<v Speaker 1>to pull that back in and start looking at more US,

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<v Speaker 1>I'd say that's a pretty smart move. Russell rebalancing huge,

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<v Speaker 1>So it's in a nutshell it it's huge. You've got

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of minutes though what happens now it's every June.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a big deal. Some say it could almost have

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<v Speaker 1>not quite a Brexit impact on the stock market, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's definitely a big dynamic. Yeah, the Brexit vote, in

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<v Speaker 1>the Brexit outcome came in a very bad day because

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<v Speaker 1>once a year the Russell in the sea's rebalance, and

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<v Speaker 1>most importantly the one thousand and two thousand there's roughly

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<v Speaker 1>by eight hundred and fifty billion dollars of money actively

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<v Speaker 1>managed to those into sees and today you're gonna see

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<v Speaker 1>a rebalance of roughly forty seven billion dollars comprising just

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<v Speaker 1>shy a four hundred of those three thousand names, and

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<v Speaker 1>they all have to print the trade at the close.

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<v Speaker 1>That's how the index trackers work. And so we've got

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<v Speaker 1>a few minutes left. We'll see how it went. But

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<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't be surprised to see those trades go off with,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, in a very volatile market at levels that

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<v Speaker 1>you wouldn't have expected any other time. Just a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit more from your trading insight. Because you mentioned the

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<v Speaker 1>three day rule. What are some of the other mistakes

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<v Speaker 1>that people typically make in volatile markets. They make decisions

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<v Speaker 1>when they shouldn't make decisions. They second guests at professional managers.

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<v Speaker 1>What kind of thing? Yes, the number one, and this

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<v Speaker 1>has been very true of every pullback since the financial crisis.

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<v Speaker 1>People get out at the bottom, they let their fear

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<v Speaker 1>overcome their rationality and they tell their manager to sell,

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<v Speaker 1>or they sell their self directed accounts at the bottoms.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there's a saying on trading desks instead of yelling,

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<v Speaker 1>you should be selling instead of crying, should be buying.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a great thing. I love that. So are you

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<v Speaker 1>watching next week? I mean, it is the FED just

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<v Speaker 1>like Okay, we've watched them to death. Now we know

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<v Speaker 1>with this gent they did the right thing. They didn't

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<v Speaker 1>raise the key rate a lot of reasons other or

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<v Speaker 1>not to do, say sent global central banks, the news

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<v Speaker 1>of UK. What's are what are the headlines to watch for?

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<v Speaker 1>You know the headlines will be how much interaction there

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<v Speaker 1>is between capital markets, volatility and policy makers. We have

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<v Speaker 1>the usual soothing words out of the Fed and other

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<v Speaker 1>folks this morning saying we stand ready to provide liquidity.

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<v Speaker 1>But if you get a second and third day of

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<v Speaker 1>a drop off, are there any policy explicit policy actions.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the thing I'm looking for first and foremost. Thank

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<v Speaker 1>you very much for coming in and spending time with us.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you Nicholas. He is the chief market strategist for

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<v Speaker 1>converge x and he can converge x can be followed

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<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at converge x. Much appreciated. You're listening to

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<v Speaker 1>Taking Stock. I'm pim Fox my co host Kathleen Hayes.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna take you through to the close. Stocks now

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<v Speaker 1>near the lows of the day, trading SMP five at

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand forty one on a drop of three and

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<v Speaker 1>a quarter percent, Dashdack down nearly and US treasuries they're rallying.

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<v Speaker 1>This is taking Stoff on Bloomberg Radio