Speaker 1: Welcome to the first edition of the Game Preview Podcast,
Speaker 1: presented by wind Bet. Betting is a team sport bet
Speaker 1: together at win Bet. I'm Ethan Greenberg here in the
Speaker 1: bet MGM studio, joined alongside Cynthia Freeland in her most
Speaker 1: of Beach, California, where it is early in the morning,
Speaker 1: So thank you very much for joining us. It's not
Speaker 1: too early. I like to be on East Coast time.
Speaker 1: I gotta know what's going on. I can't be late. Okay,
Speaker 1: fair enough. Well, you know, I'm excited for this podcast
Speaker 1: that basically I'm gonna give a little uh, a little
Speaker 1: staff shot of wats on tap. Obviously, we're gonna talk
Speaker 1: Jets Panthers. We've incorporated Cynthia's numbers throughout the podcast, but
Speaker 1: we're also just gonna talk different matchups, the vibes around
Speaker 1: both teams, especially this week heading into week one, And
Speaker 1: I just want to paint this picture for the audience.
Speaker 1: At one forty four in the morning, East Coast time,
Speaker 1: there was an email sent from you, Cynthia Freeland, that
Speaker 1: had eleven pages, over thirty five hundred words of different numbers,
Speaker 1: different stats, and I just want to know, like, how
Speaker 1: long did that take to put together. Your girls really
Speaker 1: excited about talking about actual football. So, you know, it's
Speaker 1: been a while. Preseason football was I was glad we
Speaker 1: had it, but Lud, I am ready for some real actions.
Speaker 1: So I'm just excited. It's not gonna be that aggressive
Speaker 1: every time. But it was a little aggressive, just a
Speaker 1: little aggressive. It wasn't it wasn't maybe it was, maybe
Speaker 1: it was, but even even still it was. It's very
Speaker 1: beneficial to us, you know, to me cranking out there
Speaker 1: or looking at some of these numbers before we start,
Speaker 1: I've color coded. If you're watching, you can see some
Speaker 1: of the yellow. We got some orange for the Panthers here.
Speaker 1: This way, you know, I can keep the jets in
Speaker 1: the Panthers separate. Well, this is what we have, all right,
Speaker 1: We're gonna break each podcast down into four downs, right,
Speaker 1: so you have first down, second out, third down, fourth down,
Speaker 1: But before all of that, we have our opening kickoff,
Speaker 1: and then at the end of the you know, after
Speaker 1: fourth down. I guess, you know, this doesn't really make sense,
Speaker 1: so maybe we'll incorporate it before fourth down. Are we
Speaker 1: punting or or are we going for it? Maybe we're
Speaker 1: kicking a field goal? If we're feeling spicy. So well,
Speaker 1: we'll get there as the podcast rolls on. But let's
Speaker 1: just start with our opening kickoff. It's been a while
Speaker 1: since a regular season game has taken place in the NFL.
Speaker 1: The Jets last played first week in January, week seventeen.
Speaker 1: Now they're eighteen weeks. This is a completely different roster,
Speaker 1: new quarterback, new head coach, and of course Cynthia you
Speaker 1: know in the NFL, of course they're playing their former
Speaker 1: quarterback in week one. I mean, you couldn't draw it
Speaker 1: up any any more entertaining than this. Listen to me,
Speaker 1: this is actually a win, win win. It doesn't often
Speaker 1: happen like that. I think it was the right move
Speaker 1: for Sam Donald. I think it was the right move
Speaker 1: for the Jet. I think it was the right move
Speaker 1: kind of for the entire league. This is a great
Speaker 1: first game. This is not a team, it's not a rivalry.
Speaker 1: Barely play the Panthers like once every what four years
Speaker 1: or something like that, and it's interesting to see, you know,
Speaker 1: how people evolve. So I actually think it's great for everyone,
Speaker 1: Like it's it's great TV, it's great excitement for all
Speaker 1: of us. So I'm I'm in I'm all in. You know,
Speaker 1: we just went to the one shot. What is over
Speaker 1: your left shoulder and what that says fantasy on it?
Speaker 1: Like fantasy? Is it like a Fantasy football trophy? Listen?
Speaker 1: You know, like this is the trophy we we play
Speaker 1: in this Fantasy Live league on NFL Network and this
Speaker 1: it's it's a monster. It's like it's gigantic. Where else
Speaker 1: in my house? Am I gonna put this nowhere? It's gigantic? Yeah,
Speaker 1: of course, come on the match. You gotta do it.
Speaker 1: It's huge. It's actually kind of heavy. I'm gonna drop
Speaker 1: it and hurt someone there. You don't don't toss it
Speaker 1: like Brady did you know on the boat Graade, No
Speaker 1: want to catch it. But that's the that's the two
Speaker 1: thousand twenty league Champion trophy for you, right, yep, I
Speaker 1: gotta send my title. And how many teams are we talking? Uh,
Speaker 1: there's twelve in that one. And then there's another one
Speaker 1: that we're in with the analytics people around the entire league,
Speaker 1: the actual people who work for teams, and that has
Speaker 1: fourteen people in it. So that one's hard to win too,
Speaker 1: but last year too, because I've got to get that
Speaker 1: dig in there. There's a there's a Giants guy on
Speaker 1: our on our team, so maybe he's watching. Okay, all right,
Speaker 1: you know what if hey, we we even though they're
Speaker 1: the crosstown rivals, if you're a Giants fan and you're watching,
Speaker 1: we appreciate it. We we like all viewership. Right, So
Speaker 1: let's start with first down here. You mentioned Sam Donald,
Speaker 1: but for the Jets, they draft Zack Wilson's second overall.
Speaker 1: He's the new quarterback for the New York Jets with
Speaker 1: the new head coach Robert Sala. So let's talk about
Speaker 1: Zack Wilson in this Jets passing offense against this Panther's
Speaker 1: past defense. And the Panthers have a young defense overall,
Speaker 1: and you think about where they started in the first
Speaker 1: round with J. C. Horne in the top ten. But
Speaker 1: you know, before we get to the Panthers, you know,
Speaker 1: I got ahead of my skis here. Let's start with this.
Speaker 1: I found this fascinating you in this is like on
Speaker 1: your first page of notes, your model, which I think
Speaker 1: you said is run like is double ms and capitals millions. Okay,
Speaker 1: so eighty one point six million simulations of the regular
Speaker 1: season and you have Zack Wilson for favorite for rookie
Speaker 1: passing yards and touchdowns, I do over Trevor Lawrence, which
Speaker 1: you know whatever, he was drafted second and for versus first. Right,
Speaker 1: So the interesting part there is I think this is
Speaker 1: actually gonna be a really big strength of the Jets
Speaker 1: if I were looking a little further through the season,
Speaker 1: because you got to get the timing and the ability
Speaker 1: to read defenses down. So I'm not suggesting it's gonna
Speaker 1: come out every single week and through for three hundred yards.
Speaker 1: I have about thirty nine hundred total yards for him.
Speaker 1: That's a All projections in the beginning of the season
Speaker 1: seemed low because remember everything is kind of put towards
Speaker 1: a median, and then every week it either goes higher
Speaker 1: or lower than that. So they all kind of started
Speaker 1: an average. So for me, Zach Wilson at thirty nine
Speaker 1: oh seven, very precise. Here, that's the kind of median
Speaker 1: projection that leads all rookie quarterbacks. And that even assumes
Speaker 1: I even pretended that they were going to put in
Speaker 1: all the rookies to begin so even Trey Lance, even
Speaker 1: with if Justin Fields were start, Nope, none of that.
Speaker 1: He's number one. Wow. Alright that I actually get Jets
Speaker 1: fans pretty excited, especially you consider how Zack Wilson played
Speaker 1: this preseason. What did your numbers say about his performance
Speaker 1: in the I guess he only played two out of
Speaker 1: the team's three games. Yeah, really good. So p f
Speaker 1: F Frank's him second and they're grading um. I kind
Speaker 1: of do it a little bit different. I use like
Speaker 1: this thing called wind share, which is kind of like
Speaker 1: war in baseball or player efficiency ratings in the NBA.
Speaker 1: So what I try to do is to see, like,
Speaker 1: what's this average above other people and quarterbacks in those
Speaker 1: valuable positions. So quarterback is always going to have the
Speaker 1: highest relative you know, wind share number. So right now
Speaker 1: for me, Zach Wilson's actually trending as the number it
Speaker 1: goes with the other numbers as the number one highest
Speaker 1: wind share quarterback amongst rookies. So that's ah. I liked
Speaker 1: the performance. I also think the fit with Mike Lafleur
Speaker 1: is really what drives that why, because what we saw
Speaker 1: from college from b y U film was this really
Speaker 1: good play actions, super efficient. He could read defenses using
Speaker 1: play action, especially the type of play action that we've
Speaker 1: seen MICHAELA fleur implement. We saw that in San Francisco.
Speaker 1: He was incredible at it, like a ridiculous number. In
Speaker 1: the preseason, Okay, I'm not preseason, he had a perfect
Speaker 1: pass rating using it. No big deal, just perfect. But
Speaker 1: I don't expect that to continue because that's just not
Speaker 1: how it works, right, But ultimately it's going to be
Speaker 1: a huge source of strength going forward. You know, you
Speaker 1: mentioned the success and this type of offense and for
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson, why Jets fans and why I think the
Speaker 1: Jets ultimately drafted Zack Wilson. This is a part of
Speaker 1: your statute, so I have to give credit where credit
Speaker 1: is due. Wilson had a perfect passer rating on play
Speaker 1: action passes using outside zone run concepts at b YU
Speaker 1: and you know, the Jets are gonna love the outside
Speaker 1: zone and we're gonna talk about that this show. But
Speaker 1: that just gives you a glimpse as to what kind
Speaker 1: of offense the Jets are gonna run. You mentioned you
Speaker 1: mentioned play action, Well, how about Corey Davis? Right? Are
Speaker 1: you somebody that really stretched the field last year with
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans who run a similar offense with Arthur
Speaker 1: Smith last year? Now, in Atlanta as the head coach
Speaker 1: to what the Jets are probably going to implement this season. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so well, first of all, we have to back up
Speaker 1: one thing because I love offensive lineman and I love
Speaker 1: when oh lines get better because that makes the whole
Speaker 1: thing just look feel be way better. And I live
Speaker 1: in southern California. I watched a lot of Alijah Vera
Speaker 1: Tucker when he was at USC. That is a huge ad,
Speaker 1: like figuratively and literally a huge He's a he's huge,
Speaker 1: so it's a it's a huge at And also McKay
Speaker 1: beckson being healthy. We we talked about last season a lot.
Speaker 1: You know, it's all about that old line, the ability
Speaker 1: to create some time and space so that you can
Speaker 1: run any type of concept, let alone outside his own concept.
Speaker 1: So the moves that were made for that old line
Speaker 1: a plus. I'm very happy it's all going in the
Speaker 1: right direction. You know, you don't fix everything in one
Speaker 1: fell swoop. You need to keep working on it. And
Speaker 1: all the ads of Morgan Moses that's a great contract.
Speaker 1: These are really like savvy moves. I love. That's how
Speaker 1: you make Corey Davis work. That's how you use the
Speaker 1: fact Corey Davis if you look to see what he did. Okay,
Speaker 1: there's a metric that's in the next thing, stats crimes.
Speaker 1: It's like route yards per route run. And what that
Speaker 1: means is are you running deeper routes? Are you being
Speaker 1: used a lot? How efficient are you around the fielding?
Speaker 1: What what are you doing right? Like? Where where are
Speaker 1: you going? How are you used well? Corey Davis ranked
Speaker 1: fourth in that metric, and the three guys in front
Speaker 1: of him, yeah, they were all Pro Bowl. There's nobody deal.
Speaker 1: So there's just a lot of utility there that can
Speaker 1: be can be really implemented and once they get the
Speaker 1: chemistry down. And one of those guys, A J. Brown
Speaker 1: is one of Elijah Moore is really good friends. Going
Speaker 1: back to All Miss. He's another guy Cynthia that I'm
Speaker 1: very excited to see. I mean, if you watch training
Speaker 1: camp every practice before he heard his squad, I mean,
Speaker 1: he was making plays left and right. Doesn't play in
Speaker 1: the preseason, but you look at his numbers at All Miss,
Speaker 1: they are just absolutely discuss Let you know, aside from
Speaker 1: the analytical numbers, you talk about eighty six receptions single
Speaker 1: season school record at Mississippi. Coming after guy's like a J.
Speaker 1: Brown and DK Metcalf who had immediate success in the NFL,
Speaker 1: and yuys, you know just kind of your your standard
Speaker 1: NFL receiver. I mean, whatever is in the water down
Speaker 1: in Oxford, it's it's some good H two oh. It's
Speaker 1: to quote Adam Sandler and the water Boy, it is
Speaker 1: some high quality H two oh. Because Elijah More he
Speaker 1: tore up the statue sheet and then he comes here
Speaker 1: and he started making place from day one. I like
Speaker 1: everything that was done from the oh line and in
Speaker 1: the past catching situation. I think there, this is a
Speaker 1: great You gotta build for the future, and you also
Speaker 1: have to be mindful of the present. And I think
Speaker 1: both the OH line and the receiving corps that was
Speaker 1: done with a plus. Like if I were you know,
Speaker 1: I'm grading it right because my brains matter A plus
Speaker 1: on both. The interesting thing, look, every single rookie it's
Speaker 1: gonna be it's they're gonna use is weird because they
Speaker 1: had a weird last year. Last year was not normal.
Speaker 1: And then we have an extra game this year, so
Speaker 1: we're gonna look at Ricky's and we're gonna have them
Speaker 1: a little bit of like a mathematical like sort of
Speaker 1: asterix there because some didn't play last season, some had
Speaker 1: very abbreviated seasons, some had super weird situations, So like
Speaker 1: give them a minute to get into the league and
Speaker 1: get acclimated and get everything going, because it's just going
Speaker 1: to be it's just going to be a little weird.
Speaker 1: Like the rookies last year didn't have preseason and they
Speaker 1: didn't have any sort of normal training camp at all.
Speaker 1: This year they have more normal when it comes to that,
Speaker 1: but they didn't have a normal college season. So let's
Speaker 1: just you know, well, we're we're gonna not expect him
Speaker 1: to be your fantasy superstar from day one, but like
Speaker 1: come week, you know, five six, then we're gonna we're
Speaker 1: gonna talk about we'll start adding him to our fantasy
Speaker 1: lineups and then you can get the big trophy. Went
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Speaker 1: start winning winnet and the Pistol sports book, and gave
Speaker 1: me a partner of the New York Jets office up
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Speaker 1: If you have someone you know has a gambling problem,
Speaker 1: call one two seven er or seven one one seven. Hey.
Speaker 1: If if Elijah more helps somebody get the Big Trophy,
Speaker 1: that means the Jets offense, specifically Elijah Moore is doing
Speaker 1: something right, which is music to Jets fans. Ears. You know,
Speaker 1: we were talking a lot about the Jets offense because
Speaker 1: of the new new quarterback, to new receivers. We didn't
Speaker 1: even talk about Keeling Cole. But how about this Panther's
Speaker 1: defense because they're gonna go up against a young defense.
Speaker 1: Robert Salas said, they're extremely fast. We talked about J. C. Horne,
Speaker 1: who had just a stellar year, even though if you
Speaker 1: look at the stat sheet, he didn't really have a
Speaker 1: lot of past defenses. This past season, he didn't have
Speaker 1: a lot of interceptions, but he's just one of those
Speaker 1: guys where you don't even throw to that side of
Speaker 1: the field because of how good he is. Yeah, stats
Speaker 1: when it comes to defensive backs just all over, and
Speaker 1: so linebackers, coverage linebackers too. They don't really reflect the
Speaker 1: reality because if if you're getting targeted a lot, that
Speaker 1: means that they don't really respect you. The other quarterbacks
Speaker 1: of the other you know, offensive plaguage, you know they're
Speaker 1: they're throwing it to you. One of the things about J. C. Horne,
Speaker 1: can you see my arm? He has incredibly long arms.
Speaker 1: Sounds weird, but sometimes when you guys get these guys
Speaker 1: who are real, like real long armed, he can like
Speaker 1: back down things that are further away from him than others, right,
Speaker 1: and he uses his body control exceptionally well. The Panthers
Speaker 1: really liked him because of what they saw from his
Speaker 1: body control. So he can get closer and in situations
Speaker 1: and kind of scrum it up and be a part of,
Speaker 1: you know, knocking people down, even if the status he
Speaker 1: doesn't reflect that. So when they were throwing kind of
Speaker 1: to to an area he could get to, then he
Speaker 1: gets to and he just he's just he's like annoying,
Speaker 1: like your you know, your brother would like, you know,
Speaker 1: it's just not touching you, not touching you, but still
Speaker 1: touching you. You know, j C. Horne and all the rookies.
Speaker 1: You're gonna have a little bit of an adjustment period
Speaker 1: as one does, right, Like Zack Wilson, to your point,
Speaker 1: played exceptionally well in the preseason. Robert sala has made
Speaker 1: it very clear throughout training camp and to this point on,
Speaker 1: you know, the leading up to the first game, like,
Speaker 1: there will be rookie moments, right, not all moments will
Speaker 1: be glamorous, So expect that from not only Zack Wilson,
Speaker 1: Elijah More also j C. Horne on the Panthers side.
Speaker 1: But before um, you know what, I'm gonna save that
Speaker 1: question for after second down. So let's move to second
Speaker 1: down here, let's focus on the Jets run game. You
Speaker 1: mentioned the offensive line. It all starts up front for
Speaker 1: the Jets on both sides of the ball. But for
Speaker 1: the offensive line now with Elijah Vera Tucker at left guard,
Speaker 1: Connor McGovern loves this scheme. Kai Beckton entering year two,
Speaker 1: the one guy I want to focus on is Morgan Moses.
Speaker 1: And as we're recording this podcast, Robert Salis says, whether
Speaker 1: it's Moses or George Fan at right tackle. We do
Speaker 1: not know the answer to that right now. You're gonna
Speaker 1: find out when the Jets play on Sunday at one.
Speaker 1: It's Moses. It's Moses. Come on, Cynthia's Jane is Moses.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know, don't even don't take the bait.
Speaker 1: Don't take the bait. This guy's a great run blocker. Especially,
Speaker 1: what do you want to do? Oh great, he's I
Speaker 1: don't know. I guess I'm that's my opinion obviously, and
Speaker 1: I think you go with like the better talent, but
Speaker 1: you give everyone chance and rotating in a few different
Speaker 1: types of looks. That's really smart. So it's not like
Speaker 1: I'm saying that one is bad or whatever. But I
Speaker 1: just think Morgans like very underrated run blocker, very highly
Speaker 1: underrated run blocker. So I want to focus on Morgan
Speaker 1: Moses because again I'm pulling up my cheat sheet here.
Speaker 1: I think this contrast is interesting. PFF had him the
Speaker 1: sixth highest run blocking great among tackles in the NFL
Speaker 1: with minimum one blocking snaps, but on the contrary, his
Speaker 1: number as a pass protector don't seem to be very
Speaker 1: very good in comparison to the run blocking numbers, where
Speaker 1: he's tied for ninth most pressures allowed among tackles in
Speaker 1: two thousand twenty. Okay, let's put a little let's everything
Speaker 1: needs con text, right, So sometimes when you get these
Speaker 1: numbers and there you have to rank them, they just
Speaker 1: they are what they are, right Like, if you have
Speaker 1: allow thirty eight pressures, then you allow thirty eight pressures.
Speaker 1: That's just what it is. But at the end of
Speaker 1: the day, you have to add in context, who's standing
Speaker 1: next to him, who was he going up against? What
Speaker 1: was the situation were you on? Was it third and
Speaker 1: twenty two? Because it's you know, I think that the
Speaker 1: pass rusher is probably gonna know what's going on where
Speaker 1: you were the other team blitzing a ton like, So
Speaker 1: you have to put it in context and take that
Speaker 1: run blocking and use it in this scheme and realize
Speaker 1: that for the return on investment, if you can get
Speaker 1: him too run block, then you're putting yourself in much
Speaker 1: better situations for more favorable passing situations, so that the
Speaker 1: defense has to stay honest and respect both the run
Speaker 1: and the past. Way better way, but everyone's numbers look
Speaker 1: way better if you're balanced. Yeah, and this is this
Speaker 1: is why we have you. Right, you give us the
Speaker 1: numbers and and you give us the context, because in
Speaker 1: a vacuum the number is not great. But to your point,
Speaker 1: everything does deserve context. And let's say it is Morgan
Speaker 1: Moses at right tackle on Sunday at Carolina. What do
Speaker 1: you make of this Jets offensive line? Assuming it's fully
Speaker 1: healthy with McKay Beckton at left tackle in year two,
Speaker 1: Elijah bar Tucker Conumer Governed, Greg van Rowden and then
Speaker 1: Morgan Moses. This is going to be a challenge this
Speaker 1: week because this defense, the way that they've re done
Speaker 1: their defense. And by the way, Brian Burns is a
Speaker 1: very very good pass Russia. Kind of underrated league wide, didn't.
Speaker 1: You don't hear his name kind of popping up as
Speaker 1: much as you hear some of the other guys. But
Speaker 1: it'll be interesting because they have a lot of defensive
Speaker 1: looks as well. So it's a young line. They're just
Speaker 1: learning how young meaning working together and you know, the
Speaker 1: two most important facets, in my opinion, two most important
Speaker 1: people on it are both first or second year players.
Speaker 1: So it'll it'll take a minute. I don't think this
Speaker 1: is going to be like, it's not gonna be like
Speaker 1: last year, but it's going to be like, it's not
Speaker 1: going to be like you know, it's not the Browns
Speaker 1: old line, but it is all it is not last year.
Speaker 1: So going in the right direction and then it's gonna
Speaker 1: be it's gonna look a lot better because Zach Wilson's
Speaker 1: any to execute a lot of different things is a
Speaker 1: really good fit for who's teaching him, and who you're
Speaker 1: taught by is very important. So I think that their
Speaker 1: skill sets matching will make the everything will look better.
Speaker 1: Everything will look better. I'm glad you mentioned Brian Burns
Speaker 1: because he's somebody that we should definitely talk about, especially
Speaker 1: now that the Panthers have added Hassan Reddick in free agency.
Speaker 1: And the interesting part about Hassan Reddick is that from
Speaker 1: two thousand seventeen to two thousand nineteen it felt like
Speaker 1: his numbers were decent. Ny explodes double digit sacks twelve
Speaker 1: and a half in two thousand twenty. Then you have
Speaker 1: Derek Brown in the middle. There. Do you like this
Speaker 1: Panthers defensive line and where do you give the matchup
Speaker 1: advantage right now as we record? So what I like
Speaker 1: whenever a team does what the Panthers did. They created
Speaker 1: a list of attributes that they wanted to execute for
Speaker 1: so they said, we want to run this defense. This
Speaker 1: is our theory, this is what we know how to teach,
Speaker 1: this is what we're good at coaching. We're gonna select
Speaker 1: for those things. Speed is one thing that it sounds
Speaker 1: really silly, but like they want really fast guys. Speed
Speaker 1: that they love that. I know everyone says that, but
Speaker 1: not everyone really knows what that means. And they went
Speaker 1: for on the pads, on on the field speeds, right,
Speaker 1: so not just like forty times of talking about like
Speaker 1: measured speed over the course of actual game footage, So
Speaker 1: they went first speed. I think having a cohesive strategy
Speaker 1: is the best way to sell if we're all rolling
Speaker 1: in the same direction. Boat goes that, how many puns
Speaker 1: can I make? Whatever? Like so silly, but but but
Speaker 1: I like what they've done, and I think once they
Speaker 1: jell together, it's going to be a I actually think
Speaker 1: the Panthers are a sneaky underrated potential playoff team, especially
Speaker 1: in that division with kind of the Falcons and potentially
Speaker 1: the Saints having some down down years. So I do
Speaker 1: think that the Panthers are, in my opinion, sneaky, sneaky good.
Speaker 1: So I do think that they have a a very
Speaker 1: strong team, and I think it's you know, losing to
Speaker 1: the Panthers is if that happens, it's that's like, it's
Speaker 1: not losing to a team who didn't win any games
Speaker 1: last year. It's not losing to a team is going
Speaker 1: to be middling. I think that this is at least
Speaker 1: about an above five team, if not playoff bound. I
Speaker 1: feel like that's the vibe around the Panthers right now,
Speaker 1: where when you talk to and you hear different analysts
Speaker 1: talk about the Panthers like they're a sneaky good team.
Speaker 1: They're young, they're together, right, you know, they put all
Speaker 1: the pieces there. Now you have to execute. But the
Speaker 1: pieces make good sense on both sides of the ball,
Speaker 1: and that leads me to third down. But before we
Speaker 1: get there, I just want to say again, this is
Speaker 1: the game preview podcast. I'm e Think Greenberg, Cynthia Freeland.
Speaker 1: This is presented by wind Bet Betting as a team
Speaker 1: sport bet together at wind Bet. So moving on here
Speaker 1: to the Panthers offense, you gotta we gotta talk about
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey, right. I mean, this would not be a
Speaker 1: game preview podcast if we were not to talk about
Speaker 1: the third player in NFL history with a thousand rush
Speaker 1: yards and a thousand receiving yards, which of course happened
Speaker 1: in two thousand nineteen. Yeah, so obviously it's coming back
Speaker 1: from injury. In twenty nineteen, no offensive player played more
Speaker 1: nor no non quarterback offensive player played more snaps than McCaffrey. Uh,
Speaker 1: he's a The problem with McCaffrey when you're trying to
Speaker 1: defend him, I've seen you know, you know who's actually
Speaker 1: really good at is Todd Bowles because that we've seen
Speaker 1: him do that now at Tampa Bay. But the problem
Speaker 1: with defending Christian McCaffrey is that we don't know what
Speaker 1: he's added to his game in the season, right, Like
Speaker 1: with Joe Brady, who if you remember the L s
Speaker 1: U offense, you know, back when Joe Burrow was just
Speaker 1: absolutely letting it up. That guy knows how to game
Speaker 1: plan for some passes and some runs, and Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 1: does both. So at the end of the day, it's
Speaker 1: going to be difficult to see what happens with him,
Speaker 1: and especially you know, I actually love the Jets defensive front.
Speaker 1: I wish that Carl Auston were there obviously, but you know,
Speaker 1: I think they've done made a lot of great moves.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be this game where,
Speaker 1: you know, I I just I don't think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be Look, I don't think it's gonna look bad. I
Speaker 1: just think it's going to It's really hard to stop
Speaker 1: Christian McAffrey, even if you're Todd Bowls with a Super
Speaker 1: Bowl winning defensive front, so it's it's or superwoarning defense, right, So,
Speaker 1: you know, Christian McCaffrey is just a very hard person
Speaker 1: to defend, especially given the the they did some things
Speaker 1: on their on line to help their on line is
Speaker 1: not complete, it's not, but Christian McCaffrey does erase a
Speaker 1: lot of those problems. And he's somebody that's you got
Speaker 1: to count for on every single down. He's got speed,
Speaker 1: he's got strength, quickness, he's got it all. That. The
Speaker 1: number that stood out to me most Cynthia was, you know,
Speaker 1: he played in three games in two thousand twenty and
Speaker 1: last year the Panther scored about five more points per game.
Speaker 1: They had four hundred sixteen yards with him per game
Speaker 1: compared to three hundred thirty four yards without him. They
Speaker 1: converted nearly fifty percent on third down. I mean, and
Speaker 1: this is just somebody who played, like I said, in
Speaker 1: just three games, So that the numbers are staggering with
Speaker 1: such a small sample size, at least to somebody who's
Speaker 1: not very analytical like me. Yeah, look that the numbers
Speaker 1: are staggering for good reason. The Panthers also have a
Speaker 1: really good wide receiving core. You know Robby Anderson, who
Speaker 1: Jets fans are very familiar with, but d J. Moore
Speaker 1: is like super underrated just league wide. Nobody talks about
Speaker 1: him as much. He draws coverages very efficiently and effectively
Speaker 1: creating more space for everyone else. So I and even
Speaker 1: Terrice Marshall's Jr. Who they drafted this year, remember l
Speaker 1: S you ties back to Joe Burrow. They worked together there,
Speaker 1: so to Joe Brady sorry, and Joe bro Um, but
Speaker 1: ultimately Terace Marshall, he's kind of like a possession receiver.
Speaker 1: He's got that big body and you know, he's a
Speaker 1: good addition to the other receivers that they had along
Speaker 1: that core too, So they're they're they're pretty stacked when
Speaker 1: it comes to those key skill areas, even though we
Speaker 1: don't other than Christian McCaffrey. I don't know. Sometimes you
Speaker 1: I've been doing a bunch of fantasy football drafts, You're like,
Speaker 1: you forget about DJ Moore, you know, you forget about
Speaker 1: you know, other people, and maybe not Jets fans, but
Speaker 1: others might forget about Robbi Anderson. You know, like these
Speaker 1: are good receivers, like very good receivers, so and both
Speaker 1: and both those guys had over a thousand yards receiving
Speaker 1: last year. DJ Moore a couple of number stood out
Speaker 1: to me. He averaged eighteen yards of catch, just north
Speaker 1: of their last year, fifth in the NFL, and receiving
Speaker 1: yards since two thousand and eighteen. I mean, those are
Speaker 1: some legitimate numbers for d J. Moore, And I think
Speaker 1: you're right. I don't think he necessarily gets the credit
Speaker 1: that maybe he's deserved, because when you look at his numbers,
Speaker 1: he's a very productive player. I think that's the matchup
Speaker 1: that a lot of Jets fans are keying in on
Speaker 1: the Panthers receivers. Like you said, d J. Moore, Robby Anderson,
Speaker 1: Terris Marshall against this Jets young young, young young one
Speaker 1: more young young cornerbacks group, and that's going to be
Speaker 1: a big matchup for the Jets. Yeah, I think. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: I I definitely we're not gonna get through this down
Speaker 1: without talking about I love Sheldon Rankins that we're going
Speaker 1: to talk about him in the kind of the impact
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna have because you gotta like have
Speaker 1: some time to throw the ball. So maybe that's you
Speaker 1: know that right pressure, you get the bet, you know whatever.
Speaker 1: So in this in the middle of their old line
Speaker 1: is a spot. But I do think, you know, look,
Speaker 1: young young corners mean they need to learn a little bit.
Speaker 1: So it's just tricky because if you want to put
Speaker 1: it in fantasy football terms with Teddy Bridgewater last year,
Speaker 1: the Panthers had three top twenty five wide receivers, kind
Speaker 1: of sneaky and didn't When I looked at that, I
Speaker 1: was like, is that true? Like I had to look
Speaker 1: at it twice, right, So did I put the right
Speaker 1: numbers in there? I know, I'm like, is that does
Speaker 1: that even? Does that even look right? But you know,
Speaker 1: so it's kind of you just don't think of them
Speaker 1: as this like passing powerhouse, but maybe we should because
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Speaker 1: seven right? And that kind of leads us into fourth down,
Speaker 1: which is Sam Donald right and the Panthers passing game,
Speaker 1: and you talk about Sheldon Rankins. This is this is
Speaker 1: the down to talk about Sheldon Rankins, because the Jets
Speaker 1: are gonna have to get home to Sam Donald in
Speaker 1: order to have a chance to win this game. With
Speaker 1: interior pressure from Quinnin Williams and Sheldon Rankins. To your point,
Speaker 1: Carl Austin would have been a huge part of any
Speaker 1: game plan. Definitely this week when you look at that
Speaker 1: Panther's offensive line, I feel like talking to different people
Speaker 1: the most. The bigger question on the group comes on
Speaker 1: the left side of their offensive line, which is where
Speaker 1: Carl Lawson would have lined up. Fun fact, right now,
Speaker 1: their right tackle, who they franchise sagged and subsequently paid. Um,
Speaker 1: he's from my hometown and from a very small town
Speaker 1: in Michigan. So like from my town. Um so is
Speaker 1: like the only person in the league like ever so
Speaker 1: Taylor Molten. But is there a day named after Taylor
Speaker 1: Molten in your hometown yet? Like we have like four
Speaker 1: stop signs, like three lights something like that, so probably
Speaker 1: you know, maybe like maybe the railroad crossing, who knows,
Speaker 1: but you know whatever. So the right side is good,
Speaker 1: that he's a good right tackle. The left is spicy,
Speaker 1: So you're right, the Carl Lawson, the loss of Carl
Speaker 1: Lawson would will be felt in that specific spot more so. Um.
Speaker 1: The interesting part for me on all of this is
Speaker 1: the interior stuff is where we've seen Sam Donald have
Speaker 1: some issues. Right, So Sam Donald, the pressure was coming
Speaker 1: from all over, but it was especially daunting when it
Speaker 1: was kind of coming in his face. Most quarterbacks, that's
Speaker 1: true for outside pressure, they don't really see, so typically
Speaker 1: they won't feel it doesn't mess up their mechanics. So
Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see how My reason for liking
Speaker 1: Sheldon Rankin so much is that as he was injured,
Speaker 1: people kind of forget that he's really fast. So his
Speaker 1: first you know, he had achilles injuries, right, so you
Speaker 1: know his first burst and I like burst because bursts,
Speaker 1: like like Aaron Donald is the most bersty player to
Speaker 1: ever play, right, So and you see that that birth,
Speaker 1: you see it, it's like twitch whatever, And I think
Speaker 1: people don't recognize that Sheldon Rankins is more twitched up
Speaker 1: than than people give him credit for. Right, So you know,
Speaker 1: he in that in that Saints defense, They've got a
Speaker 1: lot of twitchy guys, right. Cam Jordan's very fast as well,
Speaker 1: so maybe it didn't look as fast as it will
Speaker 1: look for when he's now that he's a jet. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, Sheldon Rankins had eight sacks a couple of
Speaker 1: years ago. That's a very impressive number, especially coming from
Speaker 1: the interior of the offensive line and against his Panther's
Speaker 1: offensive line. The Jets defensive line knows that that they
Speaker 1: have their work cut out for them because of the
Speaker 1: young secondary in the back end, and that's probably gonna
Speaker 1: be the case throughout the course of the season. But
Speaker 1: you know, Cynthia, in terms of Donald, I I wonder
Speaker 1: what the numbers from your perspective say about him, because
Speaker 1: if you look at the box score and you look
Speaker 1: at it, you go to Pro Football Reference, you go
Speaker 1: to NFL dot Com, you look at his numbers. The
Speaker 1: numbers aren't aren't great, right, there's no way to sugarcoat that.
Speaker 1: But then you hear people talking about Sam Donald. You
Speaker 1: called it a win, win, win, win for the Jets,
Speaker 1: win for the Panthers, win for Sam Donald himself. The
Speaker 1: the book around Sam was, well, was it you know,
Speaker 1: was it coaching? Was it the supporting cast out wide?
Speaker 1: Was it the offensive line? And it feels like across
Speaker 1: the league, and if you're the Panthers, you're hoping that
Speaker 1: the glimpse of talent that you saw, especially like Sam's
Speaker 1: rookie year towards the end of the season and throughout
Speaker 1: his career with the Jets, you hope that is what
Speaker 1: is what transpires more consistently. But what the numbers, like,
Speaker 1: how how do you break down a player like that
Speaker 1: where maybe it's hard to break down analytically the situation
Speaker 1: that he was in. So first of all, let's the
Speaker 1: number that's interesting to me is what the expectations say
Speaker 1: from a money standpoint, right, So you know, the trade happened,
Speaker 1: and then they franchise tagged him, so it was like
Speaker 1: it ends up being an average of like about ten
Speaker 1: million a year for him, which is the same as
Speaker 1: Washington is paying for Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is the same
Speaker 1: as many teams are paying for if you look at
Speaker 1: that ten If you use that ten number, it's the
Speaker 1: same as many teams are paying for a backup. Now,
Speaker 1: the Panthers were drafting eight eighth was not in this draft.
Speaker 1: We all knew that wasn't gonna be good enough to
Speaker 1: get up high, Like what would you have had to
Speaker 1: get to get even to three, which would be monstrous.
Speaker 1: So they were looking at it as Okay, who can
Speaker 1: we get that can execute the stuff we want to
Speaker 1: do and be in the right price range so that
Speaker 1: we can make our whole team better. Because getting J. C.
Speaker 1: Horne then made a lot more sent from them from
Speaker 1: like a whole strategic standpoint. A j boy, of course
Speaker 1: they brought over. I believe he's still suspended. That's whatever.
Speaker 1: Two games, whatever, one two games, something like that. So
Speaker 1: the idea of creating more value for every one and
Speaker 1: being able to say, Okay, we're gonna take a shot
Speaker 1: on this person whose skill set matches exactly what Matt
Speaker 1: Rule and Joe Brady know how to coach. And that's
Speaker 1: that's to me where the wind wind comes in. Now,
Speaker 1: Sam Donald's numbers have to all be taken in context.
Speaker 1: How many times does someone get mono? Like, not a
Speaker 1: lot like there are there's not a lot of friends
Speaker 1: in the lifetime. Probably no. I mean, like you know,
Speaker 1: many come as a quarterback at Mondel while they're playing
Speaker 1: in the NFL, like this doesn't happen like and then
Speaker 1: there was a strange season, like just a lot of
Speaker 1: strange nus. Last year was also a strange NUS as well, right,
Speaker 1: So I mean everything was backwards and you didn't get
Speaker 1: a chance to have like the normal sort of learning
Speaker 1: curve because there was no you know, no communication. It
Speaker 1: was all zoom whatever. So long story short, like wipe
Speaker 1: the clean this leak the slate clean, and then say
Speaker 1: what does Sam Donald do well? Well, since usc Sam
Speaker 1: Donald's been a really good deep passer. He needs a
Speaker 1: little time to do it, because most people do. He's
Speaker 1: not quite the off platform thrower that like say a
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes or even a Josh Allen is. He needs
Speaker 1: to get his his his base set. He needs his
Speaker 1: fundamentals right then he can. Then He's a very good
Speaker 1: deep passer. First year when he was playing under Todd Bohls, like,
Speaker 1: we saw a lot of good deep passing. He took
Speaker 1: a lot of sacks and he kept going right and
Speaker 1: could connect in those deep routes. So deep routes was
Speaker 1: game changing plays. Those are really the areas where you
Speaker 1: can totally turn things around very quickly. So I think
Speaker 1: what will happen is Joe Brady will be able to
Speaker 1: kind of rehab. Remember Joe Burrow had some gnarly numbers
Speaker 1: the year before he came to l s U. L
Speaker 1: s U obviously was stacked with like a bunch of
Speaker 1: first round talent absolutely everywhere, but that aside, he still
Speaker 1: was able to craft an offense where Joe Burrow had
Speaker 1: historic numbers from you know, not so great numbers elsewhere,
Speaker 1: so I think it'll look better Like I actually think
Speaker 1: Sam Donald, this could be. You know, I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: call it Ryan Tannehill, but it's gonna be, you know,
Speaker 1: because to me, when you talk about Ryan Tannehill, it's
Speaker 1: like there's also like you know, it's not that just
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry Julio Jones. Now you know, I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: go that far, but I am going to say it's
Speaker 1: gonna be more towards that trajectory, all right, some high
Speaker 1: praise also, I mean, you're right. You did see the
Speaker 1: glimpses throughout his Jets career and his rookie year and
Speaker 1: then even last year the two off platform throws that
Speaker 1: I think about where week two against the forty niners
Speaker 1: and then week three against the Colts when he bought
Speaker 1: some time with his feet. So I mean, this is
Speaker 1: this is an entertainment business. Everyone for this. But he
Speaker 1: got set on those right on the run and off
Speaker 1: platform different right when he can get set, as long
Speaker 1: as he can get set deep bob bam, it's it's smoking.
Speaker 1: But and look sometimes you just got like you're better off,
Speaker 1: like like everyone's I think, I truly think and I'm like,
Speaker 1: this is not in any way, shape or form like hyperbole.
Speaker 1: I think it is one of the first win win
Speaker 1: wins that I've seen in since I can remember. When
Speaker 1: it comes for a trade. I think that sentiment the
Speaker 1: win win win is kind of what everybody thinks. That
Speaker 1: seems to be the consensus about the trade. And you know,
Speaker 1: to wrap up our first episode of the game Preview podcast, Cynthia,
Speaker 1: where do you think the biggest mismatches for the Jets
Speaker 1: and what mismatches then do the Jets have to take
Speaker 1: advantage of to give themselves a chance to come back
Speaker 1: home and host the Patriots one and all. Well, I
Speaker 1: think that the corners, the Jets corners in this matchup
Speaker 1: are going to be a tricky one because it would
Speaker 1: seem that getting Christian McCaffrey going and then using the
Speaker 1: past game to kind of get Sam Donald back in
Speaker 1: his groove, it's a little poetic, right. I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised if they have some Sam to Robbie packages to
Speaker 1: you know, capitalize on the the sort of fun of
Speaker 1: all of it. Right, Like, you know, you you go
Speaker 1: back and it's like hey, like like they're coming to
Speaker 1: our place and We've got this big cat surper and
Speaker 1: he needs to see you score a touchdown, Robbie, you know,
Speaker 1: like something like that. So you know, I I would
Speaker 1: imagine those corners are going to get targeted quite a
Speaker 1: bit because I think they're trying to get his get
Speaker 1: his groove back. It is Mojo backs. I think that
Speaker 1: that's probably But then on the other side, I'm telling you,
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see some really nice pressure up front.
Speaker 1: I do think the Jets defensive front is going to
Speaker 1: be a strength that we're gonna talk about all season long.
Speaker 1: And I'm really I am excited to see what happens
Speaker 1: with the receivers and the past game. And I am
Speaker 1: so stoked to see Zack Wilson. I'm telling you, like
Speaker 1: week five, weeks six, it's gonna be like I'm gonna
Speaker 1: want to talk about him in every single down. I'll
Speaker 1: try to work it out, like I'll try to end
Speaker 1: around you to get it. But you know, in this
Speaker 1: first one, I'm I'm looking at this front because that
Speaker 1: is Robert Salace, bread and butter, and I love it.
Speaker 1: And I also know sneaky good. Like I'm I'm really
Speaker 1: excited to see a really good. Um, it's on ESPN,
Speaker 1: but it's a great story about Solid this weekend too.
Speaker 1: It's my teath. Hey, the energy is high around one
Speaker 1: Jets Drive. Cynthia is bringing the Jews from California Hermosa
Speaker 1: Beach and that's how we close the first episode of
Speaker 1: the Game Preview Podcast presented by Wind. Bet Betting is
Speaker 1: a team sport bet together a win bet Jets Panthers Sunday,
Speaker 1: one pm in week one. Cynthia, thank you again and
Speaker 1: and we'll see you next week.