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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 2: Said, There's always room on our two for a goom,

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Speaker 2: so we've always got.

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Speaker 1: Room for a gooon.

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Speaker 3: There were seas to the left of impressions to the right,

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Speaker 3: A check, get the blue line looking for a fight,

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Speaker 3: rains over brown.

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Speaker 1: And might work for you. Whats and farm boy to do?

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Speaker 3: It's somebody ask? Can a farm boy from Canada do?

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Speaker 3: It's somebody and farm boy to do?

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Speaker 1: It's somebody else? Can a farm boy from What is happening? Everyone?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Review.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Russell. You might know me from

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Speaker 1: the Windows Sports Betting podcast. I'm joined by the effervescent

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Speaker 1: Michael Leeboff, NHL content czar of the Action Network, and

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Speaker 1: the damn fool who let me share my muse in

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Speaker 1: the form of game previews this season as an NHL

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Speaker 1: contributor for the Action Network. Michael, congratulations, man, we made it.

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Speaker 1: The playoffs are finally here. How fired up are you?

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Speaker 4: I'm so excited. And they're releasing a schedule, so like

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Speaker 4: the NHL was sitting on the schedule and it's starting

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Speaker 4: to trickle out for for a little while, it looked

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Speaker 4: like they were just gonna be like, eeah, the two

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Speaker 4: teams can kind of play each other as as they

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Speaker 4: as they see fit. But yeah, we have a schedule.

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Speaker 4: We have We're starting to see odds pop. This is uh,

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Speaker 4: this is the best time of year for me as

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Speaker 4: as a sports fan, as as a hockey fan. It's

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Speaker 4: also the most horrifying time of the year as an

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Speaker 4: Islander fan because you know, as we know, with playoff hockey,

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Speaker 4: it's it's white knuckle time and very scary. So we

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Speaker 4: can't guarantee winner where we can definitely guarantee paint. That's

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Speaker 4: that's how that's how I think about it.

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Speaker 1: Your your favorite four letter word when it comes to hockey. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I thought we might be headed for like an English

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Speaker 1: Premier League type situation where they just crowned the regular

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Speaker 1: season champion, which would have made me I rate because

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Speaker 1: I am, you know, team of my youth, a Vancouver

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Speaker 1: Canucks fan, and we've got a ton of President's trophies

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Speaker 1: over the years, which mean, as you know, a hill

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Speaker 1: of beans at this point in the year. And so

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Speaker 1: we should get this out of the way. A couple

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Speaker 1: of things. One the Senators and the Red Wings are

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Speaker 1: gone and they're not coming back. So we're gonna pour

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Speaker 1: one out for those guys, two of our favorite teams

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Speaker 1: this regular season. As we like to bet underdogs, so

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Speaker 1: that brings us to you know, our biases, how we

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Speaker 1: do things right. So you mentioned you're an Islanders fan,

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Speaker 1: You're gonna be stressed out. I'm gonna have my feet

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Speaker 1: kicked up here with the Vancouver Canucks out of the

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Speaker 1: playoffs this year, unlike last year where things got relatively intense.

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Speaker 1: So tell me, you know, beyond just cheering for the Islanders,

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Speaker 1: how do you handicap hockey games? And what's your process

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Speaker 1: and what do you value here as we go into

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Speaker 1: the playoffs?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the first thing is, yes, I'm an

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Speaker 4: Islanders fan and actually do think that they're pretty good

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Speaker 4: value at the moment, but I do bet against this

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Speaker 4: team all the time. I've come to the point in

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Speaker 4: betting enlightenment where I'm able to separate my fandom from

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Speaker 4: betting and I can sit back and watch an Islander

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Speaker 4: game and root for them, even though I know that

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Speaker 4: if they win, I'm going to lose money. As sick

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Speaker 4: and twisted as that is that's just where I'm at

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Speaker 4: in life. But I think the way I always I

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Speaker 4: always start my handicapping process, and I've been betting on

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Speaker 4: hockey now for over a decade, is I always pitch

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Speaker 4: backwards from the underdog. Hockey such a game, such a

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Speaker 4: random game, there's so much variance. It's played on ice

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Speaker 4: with a piece of vulcanized rubber and five guys chasing

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Speaker 4: it around with sticks, and then another guy wearing a

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Speaker 4: mask and a lot of equipment trying to defend that

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Speaker 4: puck from going in a net, and sometimes it's traveling

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Speaker 4: one hundred miles per hour. That means that weird stuff

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Speaker 4: is going to happen, and that means that you should

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Speaker 4: always you shouldn't just expect the favorite to roll like

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Speaker 4: this is not This is not a game where you know,

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Speaker 4: scoring events really matter. So like a shot off someone's

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Speaker 4: leg that pops in and puts an a plus two

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Speaker 4: hundred underdog up one nothing, it is not that rare

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Speaker 4: of an occurrence in the NHL. So that's why I

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Speaker 4: always start with the underdog, and I try to say,

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Speaker 4: what is their path to success? How likely is that

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Speaker 4: path to success? And as I start to kind of

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Speaker 4: like cross those pass off I'll start realizing, Okay, maybe

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Speaker 4: this is a game to look at the favorite. Maybe

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Speaker 4: there is a reason why this team is minus one fifty.

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Speaker 4: Is that price worth it? And I'll very very rarely

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Speaker 4: go above minus one forty in the NHL. That's probably, Honestly,

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Speaker 4: it might be a flaw of mine, but it's just

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Speaker 4: how it's been working for me, is that I'm much

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Speaker 4: more underdog heavy, and that's the same case in the playoffs,

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Speaker 4: and I stick to much more predictive metrics. I don't

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Speaker 4: really care for teams like you know, oh, this team's seven,

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Speaker 4: seven and three on Tuesdays. That stuff don't really care about.

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Speaker 4: But the stuff that does matter to me, I like

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Speaker 4: looking at expected goals. I like looking at how a

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Speaker 4: team is generating and defending high danger scoring chances. And

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Speaker 4: I know the two of us kind of overlap in

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Speaker 4: that way. So you know, I'll let you dig into

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Speaker 4: like the stats that matter that matter the most to

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Speaker 4: you too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, I'm very you know. Listen, you called it enlightenment.

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Speaker 1: I call it dead inside. I, as an adult, has

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Speaker 1: lost my childhood. Let's use a word we used to

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Speaker 1: describe you earlier, effervescence about, you know, just cheering for

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Speaker 1: my team. And so now when it comes to hockey,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned all the randomness. I like to base it

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Speaker 1: on a concept of Okay, we're gonna start from a

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Speaker 1: mathematical concept and we're just gonna kind of hope for

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Speaker 1: the best from there. So anybody who's listened to my show,

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Speaker 1: the Daily podcast, The Window, you know that I have

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Speaker 1: a model we sort of joke around. We call it

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Speaker 1: the let's do that Hockey model from Saturday Night Live.

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Speaker 4: Hey, as they say in hockey, let's do that hockey.

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Speaker 1: Part of that is that's a skit that has chanced

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Speaker 1: the rapper in it. Sort of a perfect segue here,

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Speaker 1: As you were talking about high danger chances, right, I

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Speaker 1: want to try to predict who's going to have more

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Speaker 1: high danger chances. And what I want is five on

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Speaker 1: five play. I don't really care all that much about

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Speaker 1: your power play percentage because every team, when it's all

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Speaker 1: boiled down to it, kind of scores the same amount. Right,

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Speaker 1: the best teams in the league twenty five percent, Right,

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Speaker 1: the sort of mediocre teams eighteen percent. Well, all it

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Speaker 1: takes is the eighteen team to have five power plays

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Speaker 1: in a game, and the twenty five percent to have

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Speaker 1: four power plays in a game, which obviously isn't that

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Speaker 1: much of a discrepancy, and all of a sudden, you're

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Speaker 1: sort of at even par there for both teams. Now,

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Speaker 1: how do you create power plays to maybe get six

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Speaker 1: power plays in a game? Two another teams four or

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Speaker 1: another teams three? Will you do it via five on

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Speaker 1: five play? Right? Playing really well on five and five

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Speaker 1: is going to draw more penalties again in theory, So

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Speaker 1: I'm big on five on five hockey. So all of

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Speaker 1: my metrics in my let's do that hockey model are

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Speaker 1: sort of centered around the idea of who's the better

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Speaker 1: team five on five? And by the way, we'll get

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Speaker 1: to it later. But your Islanders, my friend, your Islanders

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Speaker 1: are barking this this coming week and a half or so.

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Speaker 1: This season, I decided to treat the North and the

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Speaker 1: Central as their own leagues. All of these and for

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Speaker 1: those who don't know, right, we had Division only play

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Speaker 1: in the NHL this season, and so I took this

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Speaker 1: opportunity to kind of use it as a experiment where

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna follow the North, I'm going to follow this

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Speaker 1: Central kind of like just following the Big Ten in

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Speaker 1: college basketball or college football, or small schools in college

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Speaker 1: basketball betting, right, it's a different animal. I didn't care

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Speaker 1: what the San Jose Sharks were up to because I

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Speaker 1: didn't have to care this season because there wasn't that

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Speaker 1: overlap and so on those other two divisions, the West

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Speaker 1: and the East. I just let the numbers pile up, right.

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Speaker 1: I didn't get invested in it this season, So I

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Speaker 1: come at it from an almost strictly mathematical standpoint, And

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Speaker 1: in this case, this season, I can tell you everything

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Speaker 1: you want to know about the North and the Central,

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Speaker 1: but I can tell you almost nothing about the East

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Speaker 1: and the West other than the metrics. Right, they are

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Speaker 1: literally just numbers to me in those divisions, And so

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Speaker 1: you know, I think that's worth sort of talking about

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Speaker 1: here as we sort of set up what we're going

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Speaker 1: to do the rest of the day here. And boy

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Speaker 1: do we have some good audio programming for you today.

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Speaker 1: We're going big early on here, Michael and I Stanley

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Speaker 1: Cup futures right off the bat, not waiting around who

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Speaker 1: we bet, who we would absolutely not bet, and why

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Speaker 1: then if you're pretty new to betting on hockey, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna be joined by an absolute delight TV personality and

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Speaker 1: host of the Oral Sessions podcast, Renee Paquette of WWE fame.

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Speaker 1: Renee is a fellow Canadian like myself who now lives

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Speaker 1: in Vegas, wants to get into hockey betting. What a

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Speaker 1: horrible decision that is and has a ton of questions

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Speaker 1: for us. And she's like eight months pregnant, so we're

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Speaker 1: gonna figure out whether her doctor will even allow her

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Speaker 1: to bet on this mega sweat that is the Stanley

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Speaker 1: Cup playoffs. So bet Michael and I are gonna get

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Speaker 1: way deep right, We're gonna get serious. For those of

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Speaker 1: you again who have followed along with me this season,

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Speaker 1: you know I'm busting out the model, but let's do

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Speaker 1: that hockey model. Let's do that hockey and Michael's got

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Speaker 1: his usual brand of takes on series prices, game totals,

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Speaker 1: game one prices, and wait for it, the con smythe market. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I could go an hour on that one alone. So Michael,

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Speaker 1: you're the boss here and let's come out hot Stanley

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Speaker 1: Cup futures. Let's take it from the top. This is

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Speaker 1: your time. Who are you looking to back to lift

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Speaker 1: the Cup this season?

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Speaker 4: Right before I get into that. I can't imagine the

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Speaker 4: horror that our boss, Chad Millman would would would feel

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Speaker 4: the dread if we did an hour long con smythe podcast.

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Speaker 4: I mean talk about a ratings bonanza. But yeah, I

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Speaker 4: mean right away, two teams I think are are value.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna start with the Winnipeg Jets because I think

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Speaker 4: you're buying the Jets at a very very good time.

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Speaker 4: Right They've been bad for about a month and a

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Speaker 4: half now, but a lot of that has to do

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Speaker 4: with the fact that they've been missing probably their most

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Speaker 4: dynamic player, Nikolai Eelers. One thing about the NHL playoffs

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Speaker 4: is team's talking very cryptic language because they don't want

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Speaker 4: to give anything away to the other team about injuries whatever,

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Speaker 4: and of course Betters, which makes our life a little difficult.

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Speaker 4: But Nikolai Eelers, they're say, quote unquote, they're hopeful he's

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Speaker 4: going to be ready for Game one. If he is,

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Speaker 4: that he turns the Jets into a completely different team.

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Speaker 4: He's a great pup transporter, he's a scorer, he's a

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Speaker 4: setup man. He's really like a do it all kind

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Speaker 4: of guy. He's their best five on five player, and

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Speaker 4: the Jets also have the luxury of having one of

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Speaker 4: the best goaltenders in the league backing them up. So

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Speaker 4: while they're five on five numbers aren't great, they have

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Speaker 4: a great goaltender and an offense that can pile it up.

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Speaker 4: So if you put those two things together, you don't

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Speaker 4: have to worry about dominating the possession of the puck

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Speaker 4: because you're in theory getting the saves you need, and

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Speaker 4: you're scoring enough for those saves to count. So I

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Speaker 4: like the Jets. They're hanging around thirty five to one.

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Speaker 4: That number might go a little bit higher. They're playing

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Speaker 4: the Edmonton Oilers in Round one. Who if you watch

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Speaker 4: any sports, you probably know who Connor McDavid is. I

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Speaker 4: really hope you do know who Connor McDavid is. At

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Speaker 4: this point. He just had a season for the Ages

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Speaker 4: one hundred points over one hundred points in fifty six games,

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Speaker 4: and there's a McDavid mania sweeping the NHL. So a

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Speaker 4: lot of people I think are just going to want

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Speaker 4: to be a part of that ride and bet on

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Speaker 4: McDavid in that first round series. But outside of the

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Speaker 4: top of that roster, the McDavid, Leon Dry Sidles and

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Speaker 4: Tyson Barry and Darnell Nurses of the world. The Oilers

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Speaker 4: are not that deep. They are very much there their

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Speaker 4: beatable team. They they're goaltending. Mike Smith had a good season,

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Speaker 4: but I don't trust Mike Smith as far as I

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Speaker 4: can throw him as a goaltender. He's thirty seven, thirty eight,

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Speaker 4: He's an older guy. He is much as he's a

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Speaker 4: very mercurial, likes to skate around with the puck. He's

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Speaker 4: a nut, He's an absolute nut. So I just I

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Speaker 4: think that this is there is a path to success

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Speaker 4: for the Jets that and I don't think anybody is

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Speaker 4: going to be betting on them, So I think that

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Speaker 4: they're going to be a team that has a lot

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Speaker 4: of value in multiple markets. I think that the series

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Speaker 4: price is good. I think the price on them to

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Speaker 4: win the North Division, like mini playoff thing is probably

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Speaker 4: going to be good. And I like, I just think

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Speaker 4: that they're They're capable. They have enough talent to pull

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Speaker 4: the upset whether or not they're there, it's going to

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Speaker 4: come down to with their goaltender can maybe steal a

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Speaker 4: game or two. I believe in Connor Hellibuck. I like

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Speaker 4: them at thirty five forty to one, whatever he can

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Speaker 4: get them, and then the other team. You know, it's

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Speaker 4: common the New York Islanders twenty to one. Like as

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Speaker 4: I said, I'm if the Islanders weren't a good price,

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't be suggesting them. I wouldn't want to expose

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Speaker 4: you to this franchise that will make up ways, literally

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Speaker 4: make up ways to ruin your life. Like we had

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Speaker 4: an owner who bought the team. He didn't have any money.

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Speaker 4: They made a thirty for thirty about it because it

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Speaker 4: was so crazy. This is a team that literally events

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Speaker 4: ways not just to lose games, but to almost lose

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Speaker 4: themselves as a franchise. But they were one of the

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Speaker 4: best teams in the league for a long time in

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Speaker 4: the season. For the first thirty eight games, the Islanders

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Speaker 4: were up there with the Avalanche the Lightning in terms

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Speaker 4: of five on five play. Their form dipped a little

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Speaker 4: bit after they lost their first line left winning winger

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Speaker 4: and captain Anders lead for the season, but they brought

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Speaker 4: in Kyle Palmery, who's getting his feet under him in

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Speaker 4: Barry Trot's system. They have a deep enough forward corps.

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Speaker 4: Their defense is fantastic, one of the best defenses in

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Speaker 4: the league in terms of preventing high danger scoring chances,

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Speaker 4: in terms of preventing preventing teams from getting in the

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Speaker 4: house in front of the net, you know, the slot,

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Speaker 4: et cetera. And their goaltending is superb. So that's basically

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Speaker 4: all you're looking for in a contender is a team

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Speaker 4: that can can shut shut down the other the opponent's

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Speaker 4: best players, which they can, and their goaltending. And I

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Speaker 4: think the Islanders really they tick basically every box except

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Speaker 4: for one, which is that they closed the season out

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Speaker 4: in a kind of on a downslope. But that also

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Speaker 4: means you're getting a good price on them, So I

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Speaker 4: think it's worth the risk. Twenty to one, I think

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Speaker 4: is a pretty good bet.

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Speaker 1: Well, it took us all of what seven eight minutes

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Speaker 1: maybe in this podcast for you to sent me up

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Speaker 1: to try to offend you. At this point in time,

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Speaker 1: I agree with one of those wholeheartedly, and hopefully this

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Speaker 1: makes you feel a little bit better. I really like

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Speaker 1: the Islanders too, and again I have no emotional connection

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Speaker 1: to it, so I can vy for everything that you

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Speaker 1: said with regards to the Islanders. As for the Jets,

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Speaker 1: you had one sentence in there that I think you

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Speaker 1: know triggers me. Right, the five on five metrics haven't

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Speaker 1: been that good, and they haven't been that good for

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Speaker 1: like two and a half years now, Right. The Jets

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Speaker 1: have this way about them where it's almost kind of

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Speaker 1: smoking mirrorsy right, Like they get a few high danger chances,

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Speaker 1: they give up a ton of high danger chances relative

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Speaker 1: to what they get. And you said, right, right, hellabuck

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Speaker 1: makes the saves, right, But how long can that last?

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Speaker 1: And the truth is it has lasted like two years.

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Speaker 1: The guy's incredible, but there has been some issues for

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Speaker 1: him in the last month or so. So I'm steering

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Speaker 1: clear from the Jets in you know, because of that.

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Speaker 1: You're right about Eelers, right. The key to the Jets

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Speaker 1: is they're going to have three, four or five guys

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Speaker 1: who can put away that one chance, right, They don't

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Speaker 1: need the volume of chances. So I understand where you're

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Speaker 1: coming from from that standpoint. But if I'm going to

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Speaker 1: base kind of everything that I do around five on

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Speaker 1: five play, I got to sort of just be, you know,

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Speaker 1: appalled by that, if you will right.

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Speaker 4: That by it too. I'm not happy about betting the Jets.

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Speaker 1: I don't.

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Speaker 4: I don't want to do it, but the number, I

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Speaker 4: think the numbers just do good, you know, fundamentally, that's

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Speaker 4: what it comes down to.

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Speaker 1: So for me, I have a couple of buys here.

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Speaker 1: Now we should sort of mention that, you know, these

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Speaker 1: markets are tricky when it comes to value in that

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Speaker 1: there kind of really isn't all that much. But I

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Speaker 1: think this season it's sort of the strange season. And

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Speaker 1: you know, people I'll tell you you know underdog betting,

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Speaker 1: underdog betting, and I think that's fair. From a game

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Speaker 1: to game standpoint, I have this general strategy of dog's

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Speaker 1: early favorites late when it comes to series prices, right,

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Speaker 1: you want to jump on some of these teams early

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Speaker 1: as possible. And so the thing is, though, because we

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Speaker 1: all believe that anybody can win the Stanley Cup playoffs,

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Speaker 1: sometimes that actually provides value to the favorite. And I

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Speaker 1: actually really like the Colorado Avalanche from a financial standpoint.

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Speaker 1: From a probability standpoint, my numbers make them massive favorites

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Speaker 1: against the Saint Louis Blues, So right there, I'm different.

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Speaker 1: From a market standpoint, I also think that they're going

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Speaker 1: to be that they should be relatively decent favorites against

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Speaker 1: the Vegas Golden Knights, who are a team that is

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Speaker 1: right up there with them in this market right almost

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Speaker 1: co favorites depending on what sportsbook you're looking at. And

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Speaker 1: so if I think that they're better than the market

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Speaker 1: thinks in those first two games, add on the fact

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Speaker 1: that they're probably once we get to the semi final,

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Speaker 1: there's probably gonna be some Cinderella story and that's who

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Speaker 1: Colorado is going to get to play in the semifinals.

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Speaker 1: So we could be looking at a Colorado team that

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Speaker 1: might actually have, you know, the best odds in that

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Speaker 1: semi final if they play some team that's a four seed.

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Speaker 1: You know, again, maybe it's maybe it's the Winnipeg Jets

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Speaker 1: for all we know right where they're going to end

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Speaker 1: up as heavy favorites in this situation. And now you've

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Speaker 1: got a plus five hundred into the finals, or again

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Speaker 1: at a heavy favorite in the semifinals. So I actually

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Speaker 1: really like the Avalanche here. I think some of these

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Speaker 1: other teams kind of just exist so that we're not

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Speaker 1: looking at a three to one favorite, at a plus

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Speaker 1: two to fifty type favorite, which of course you see

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Speaker 1: in all other sports. So you know, part of the

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Speaker 1: reason that we like hockey is because the unpredictability here,

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Speaker 1: but it doesn't mean that the underdog wins all of

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Speaker 1: the time. And so I think when we're talking about

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Speaker 1: roots to the Stanley Cup Finals, I think the Avalanche

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Speaker 1: have kind of this sneaky easy or at least relative

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Speaker 1: to the market, this sneaky easy route, again based on

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Speaker 1: the five on five numbers, which again are just absolutely

365
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Speaker 1: off the charts when it comes to the Colorado Avalanche.

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Speaker 1: If we had to look a little bit deeper, everybody's

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Speaker 1: lining up right now on the Boston Bruins. I can't

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Speaker 1: hate that. We'll talk about them a little bit more

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Speaker 1: later on. That seems totally reasonable at this point. The

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Speaker 1: Bruins are going to give everybody a headache. That's just

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Speaker 1: what they do. And then as far as teams that

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Speaker 1: you don't want to touch with a ten foot pole,

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Speaker 1: I'll start here because I got a handful of them,

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Speaker 1: and there's a couple of them, you know, for one

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Speaker 1: reason and a couple before the other. But you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: of course, the Oilers. I wouldn't touch the Oilers with

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Speaker 1: a ten foot pole here from a future standpoint, because

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Speaker 1: I have a different way to play the Oilers here

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Speaker 1: that we're going to talk about at the end of

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Speaker 1: the show, So hang on for that same thing. With

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Speaker 1: the Carolina Hurricanes, I'm going to pass on them from

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Speaker 1: a future standpoint. But as I mentioned, the Jets are

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Speaker 1: a ten foot pole team for me, and the Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: Penguins are a ten foot pole team for me as well.

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Speaker 1: The metrics there don't add up. As I said, I

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Speaker 1: like the Islanders. So guess who their first round opponent is.

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Speaker 1: You know it, it's the Pittsburgh Penguins. So, Michael, who

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Speaker 1: are the teams that you add want nothing to do

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Speaker 1: with when it comes to the futures market.

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Speaker 4: So you mentioned that the Bust and Bruins, like everyone

391
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Speaker 4: is kind of piling onto them, and they're good. They're

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Speaker 4: very good. They've found their form with Taylor Hall in

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Speaker 4: the fold. But I do wonder if we're starting to

394
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Speaker 4: get swept up in this kind of down the stretch

395
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Speaker 4: play from them because they played sixteen games with Tailor.

396
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Speaker 4: They played seventeen games total since the trade deadline. I

397
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Speaker 4: think Taylor Hall played sixteen of them because they rested

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Speaker 4: everybody in a meaningless last game against the Capitals, and

399
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Speaker 4: eight of those sixteen games came against the Buffalo Sabers

400
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Speaker 4: and the New Jersey Devils, so that's going to skew

401
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Speaker 4: things a little bit. So the way I'm approaching the

402
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,320
Speaker 4: Bruins is a little different. I don't think that the

403
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Speaker 4: value right now is worth it, but I do think

404
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Speaker 4: that they're a team that, like they turned games into

405
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Speaker 4: coin flips and they put themselves in positions to win games.

406
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Speaker 4: So if they do lose Game one against the Capitals,

407
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Speaker 4: then maybe the opportunity comes to buy in on the Bruins.

408
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Speaker 4: So that's the way I'm approaching them. The other team, Like,

409
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Speaker 4: I have no time for the Toronto Maple Leaves right now.

410
00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,399
Speaker 4: The numbers just too short, and I know, like the

411
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Speaker 4: path to sets is there for them because of the

412
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Speaker 4: North Division. While the other divisions all kind of play

413
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Speaker 4: a similar style of hockey to one degree or another,

414
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Speaker 4: the North Division was a little different. So I just

415
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Speaker 4: don't know how that is going to add up when

416
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:13,960
Speaker 4: the Leafs, if they do get through, how they're going

417
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Speaker 4: to be able to play teams like Colorado Vegas whoever

418
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Speaker 4: they end up playing, Plus that goaltending situation. I mean, well,

419
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Speaker 4: like I get that Jack Campbell had a very nice

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Speaker 4: little story going and Toronto. If you're new to hockey,

421
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Speaker 4: you might not know this, but like the Toronto media

422
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Speaker 4: is very similar to maybe the New York media in baseball,

423
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Speaker 4: or the way the Dallas Cowboys are covered in football,

424
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Speaker 4: where every little thing that any one of these players does,

425
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Speaker 4: whether it's on the ice or off the ice, becomes

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Speaker 4: a huge story and all their newspapers and media coverage

427
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Speaker 4: all of a sudden, the country of Canada shuts down.

428
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Speaker 4: If you know, Austin Matthews signs a sponsorship deal with

429
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Speaker 4: Coca Cola or something, So I think that right away

430
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 4: that means that they're always gonna be a little overvalued

431
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 4: and their goaltending situation. Like I said, they made such

432
00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 4: a big deal about Jack Campbell, but him and Freddie Anderson,

433
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,400
Speaker 4: and like, you can't if you're a Maple LEAs fan

434
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 4: and you're being honest with yourself, I don't know how

435
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 4: you can go to bed at night thinking that those

436
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 4: two guys can last, can carry a team throughout the

437
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 4: entire playoffs. And I get that they score enough goals

438
00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,360
Speaker 4: that hopefully that doesn't matter if you're a Maple Leafs

439
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:14,360
Speaker 4: fan or back or but I I just can't get

440
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 4: involved at this number. Another team though that like, sure,

441
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:19,280
Speaker 4: let's say they do go down one nothing to the

442
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 4: Canadians or two nothing to the Canadians, and they become

443
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 4: live because they can score their way out of problems

444
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 4: like that, and then the only other team that like,

445
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,360
Speaker 4: like you said, like the Carolina Hurricanes are just too short.

446
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,439
Speaker 4: I've been a believer in the Hurricanes. I've got them

447
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 4: before the season, but right now you're just getting a

448
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,680
Speaker 4: tough number and a very very good division that you're

449
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,400
Speaker 4: talking about three Stanley Cup to contenders in one division

450
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:42,880
Speaker 4: with them, the Lightning and the Panthers, who all all

451
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,160
Speaker 4: three of whom can can beat anybody in this league

452
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,480
Speaker 4: in a best of seven. So I just like, can

453
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 4: the Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup? Absolutely they can't. They're

454
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 4: very good, but I just don't think that they're worth

455
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 4: the price that they're at right now.

456
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:58,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, and a potentially sneaky, sneaky path for them as well.

457
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 1: I live here in Toronto, and I assure you nobody's

458
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 1: getting any sleep, even though, like I said, my feed

459
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,199
Speaker 1: are up. I'm sleeping just fine. That is that's the

460
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 1: benefit to having your team knocked out here before we

461
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,439
Speaker 1: even get started, even though they're actually still playing hockey games.

462
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 1: So that should give you an idea of where we're

463
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 1: coming from from a big picture level. We'll get microscopic

464
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 1: with series bets and a little bit deeper into these

465
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 1: teams a little bit later on, but right now, we

466
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 1: got to strip things down to the base. It's time

467
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 1: to get all kinds of Canadian up in here, all right.

468
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 1: We here understand you out there listening may not bet

469
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 1: on hockey on a regular basis. It can be a

470
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 1: long season, but you're a fan of hockey. You love it.

471
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 1: That's why you're listening here. Because so many people start

472
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 1: betting hockey during the Stanley Cup playoffs. We've asked our

473
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 1: very special guest, Renee Pequette, to join us. Renee is

474
00:21:56,400 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 1: a TV personality. She worked for WWE for a long time.

475
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 1: I'm Entertaining the masses, and she's the host of the

476
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 1: Oral Sessions podcast with our friends at the Volume podcast Network.

477
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 1: But Renee, and let's be honest here this might be

478
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 1: the most important part, is also a native Canadian like me,

479
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 1: a huge hockey fan and a longtime Loss Vegas resident

480
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 1: who roots for the hometown Golden night. So before we

481
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: move on to the rest of our show, we're gonna

482
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,119
Speaker 1: let Renee take the wheel here and Mike and I

483
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,439
Speaker 1: will help answer some questions about how to approach betting

484
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 1: on the NHL Little NHL Betting one oh one, If

485
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 1: you will, welcome Renee. Thanks for joining us.

486
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 5: Yeah, thanks for having me on. I didn't know you're Canadian.

487
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 5: Where are you from.

488
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 1: Oh well, I'm currently living in Toronto, which I have

489
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 1: for about fifteen years now, but I'm originally a British Columbian.

490
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 6: Oh all right, well, welcome to my province of Ontario,

491
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 6: my people.

492
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 1: Fifteen years late. But yeah, I appreciate you welcomes. That's

493
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 1: quite nice of you.

494
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 5: You've been there for a while.

495
00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 6: So okay, guys, I need a lot of help here

496
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 6: because betting is new to me. As if you could

497
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 6: tell when I'm posting some tweets trying to get some

498
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 6: you know, trying to get a little buzz, trying to

499
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 6: make a little money in the betting world, I never

500
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 6: really know what I'm doing.

501
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,159
Speaker 5: It's all very confusing to me.

502
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 6: I feel like, do you guys have a lot of

503
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 6: people picking your brains about how to bet or.

504
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 5: Do you just not hang with those people anymore.

505
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 1: For me, not nearly enough. Everybody thinks they've got the

506
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 1: answers here, Rene, So this is the first step along

507
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 1: road for you understanding that you don't have the answers

508
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 1: and that you're looking for answers.

509
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 6: Okay, So we're looking at a condensed NHL season here,

510
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 6: and like you said, not a lot of people want

511
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 6: to be betting on hockey. It's a long season, trala la.

512
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 6: But the past two years, having these condensed seasons, maybe

513
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 6: it makes out a little bit more exciting. We've got

514
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 6: the playoffs just literally around the corner. I love to

515
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 6: go for the underdog. Is that always this smart move

516
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 6: when we're in the betting world, that's.

517
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 4: Music to my ears. I live for the pain and

518
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,199
Speaker 4: suffering that comes with betting on bad hockey teams, and

519
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 4: that's basically you know how I spend my winters is

520
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 4: just on my couch betting on teams like the Autawa

521
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 4: Senators or Detroit Red Wings and watching them lose in

522
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 4: horrific fashion. U a bunch of losers, just like me.

523
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 4: And but in the playoffs it becomes a little different.

524
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 4: You start dealing with with good teams that are underdogs

525
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 4: and it's, uh, it's gonna come down to your numbers,

526
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 4: right like it's if there's not it's not a wise

527
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 4: decision to just blindly bet on every underdog. But the

528
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 4: truth is that most people are just gravitate towards favorites

529
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 4: because they look at the line. They say, oh, the

530
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 4: Toronto maple Leiefs remind us two ten against the Outawa

531
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:42,360
Speaker 4: Senators or the Montreal Canadians, They're definitely going to win.

532
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 4: So whether they just toss them in a parlay or

533
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 4: bet the puck line which is backing them to win

534
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 4: by at least two goals, that's where most of the

535
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 4: money is going to or at least most of the

536
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 4: pub is going to go. So you you automatically are

537
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 4: kind of on the quote unquote right side, if you

538
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 4: if you're looking at a matchup from the underdog and

539
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 4: working and pitching backwards from that way. So the cold truth,

540
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 4: could hard truth of betting on hockey is that yes,

541
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 4: you're going to be betting on underdogs more often than not.

542
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 4: And the other cold heart truth is it's not terribly fun.

543
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, i'd agree with Michael. Yeah, we definitely share

544
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 1: a affinity for betting on the underdog. But part of it

545
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 1: it's a psychology too, right, because from a value standpoint,

546
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 1: most people want to bet the favorite, and so obviously

547
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 1: that means money comes in on the favorite, which means

548
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 1: you're gonna get value on the underdog. So over the

549
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 1: course of a long period of time, you're probably going

550
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: to end up on the winning side. It's just going

551
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 1: to take a little heart along the way because you're

552
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 1: gonna end up losing more than you win. That's just

553
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: how it works. But fortunately the price couraged. No. Yeah,

554
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 1: I mean the price is going to end up being

555
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 1: on the positive side for you over a long period

556
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 1: of time, as long as you're somewhat discerning with who

557
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: you're backing as an underdog.

558
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 6: Okay, and then you mentioned, you know, betting on the

559
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 6: puck line. Is that something that I should be doing

560
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 6: more often.

561
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 1: I'll take this one, Michael, because you are ahead of

562
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: the game here when it comes to what I was

563
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 1: going to recommend to you as sort of a first timer,

564
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 1: if you're looking for a system, anybody who's like, you

565
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: know what, I don't really know these teams all that well,

566
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,439
Speaker 1: the money line and the math around it, and win probabilities.

567
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,360
Speaker 1: I don't really get all of that. I just kind

568
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,959
Speaker 1: of want to watch hockey. I want cheer for close games,

569
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 1: maybe get some overtimes, maybe something that if it goes

570
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: to overtime, I've already won, and I can either go

571
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 1: to bed when it hits the third overtime or I

572
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: can just sit there and enjoy it like a hockey

573
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: fan would. The puck line is perfect for that at

574
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:44,479
Speaker 1: plus one and a half on the underdog right last season.

575
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 1: So here's why it's really fun. One It wins a lot, right,

576
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 1: just because of the nature of the bet. Now, over

577
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 1: a long period of time, you know, like anything else,

578
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:57,160
Speaker 1: it's priced correctly, and you might not win, you might

579
00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 1: win a little bit. You know, you might win a lot.

580
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 1: Just kind of depends on this season. Last season, if

581
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 1: you literally just blindly bet plus one and a half

582
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,920
Speaker 1: on the puck line, you would have finished the playoffs.

583
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 1: It was a longer playoffs, admittedly, but you would have

584
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,919
Speaker 1: finished that playoffs up twelve units, and that's not nothing.

585
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 1: It's certainly better than being down twelve units. And you

586
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 1: would have won a lot of the time, almost seventy

587
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: five percent of the time, which you know, if you're

588
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 1: going to be going to bed happy. You know what's

589
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 1: wrong with that? Right, Like, that's a fun way to

590
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 1: go about doing it. You rather bet on something that's

591
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 1: going to win a lot of the times, as long

592
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 1: as it's even somewhat profitable along the way. And it's

593
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 1: the same thing like we talked about with just betting

594
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: the moneyline favorites. People like the juice of the team

595
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 1: winning by two. Oh, they could get an empty net

596
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 1: goal later. Oh, Like, this team's much better. They like that, right,

597
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,360
Speaker 1: plus one twenty plus one fifty plus two hundred, they

598
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 1: love that, And it adds for a little bit of

599
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 1: value again on the underdog. And people don't love laying

600
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 1: minus two hundred, right, They don't like laying twenty bucks

601
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 1: just to win ten. But over a long period of time,

602
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 1: it's going to add up. And that's I think the

603
00:27:57,680 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 1: best way to do it. If you're just landing on

604
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 1: hockey going you know what, I'm just here for the

605
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 1: fun of it. Maybe I win a little, maybe I

606
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,439
Speaker 1: lose a little because these things are decently priced. But

607
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 1: it's a thing that not a lot of people kind

608
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: of gravitate to, which, as you know, in the playoffs, right,

609
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 1: the game itself. Gravity, you know, kind of gravitates two overtime, right,

610
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 1: Like the team who's behind is giving it one hundred

611
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: and million percent to try to come back in a game,

612
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:24,239
Speaker 1: whereas in the regular season it's not necessarily that case. Right,

613
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 1: They'll let that game go if they're down two goals

614
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: at the start of the third period. So it's hard

615
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 1: for the sportsbooks to kind of make that, you know,

616
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 1: appropriately priced given you know, a people want to bet

617
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 1: the favorite to win by more than one goal, and

618
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 1: they also don't really want to lay that big price.

619
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 1: But I think from a profitability standpoint and an entertainment standpoint,

620
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 1: that's a really really good bet if you just you know,

621
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: parachuting in here for a couple of months and looking

622
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 1: at like.

623
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 6: The nitty gritty of the numbers and the math that

624
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 6: comes into it. That's where I get very overwhelmed. I mean,

625
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 6: I just open the app and I'm like, oh, this

626
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 6: all seems a little above my pay grade. What are

627
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 6: you kind of looking at for, like, you know, what

628
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:08,959
Speaker 6: what would look like a good bet to put your

629
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 6: money on? Because you know, for me, when I look

630
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 6: at bets and I can be a bit of a Homer.

631
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 5: I'm like, I'll see what the Knights are doing.

632
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 6: If the Knights aren't doing anything, I'll see what the

633
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 6: Toronto maple leiefs are doing. And maybe I'll check in

634
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 6: on the Hawks. I'll kind of move around a little bit.

635
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 6: But when we're actually just looking at you know, taking

636
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 6: your heart out of it, just working with our brains here,

637
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 6: what are we looking at?

638
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 1: Math wise, that can be a little bit dangerous. And

639
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 1: I rely almost entirely, she can say almost entirely, but

640
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: very much on the math right, because hockey is that

641
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,719
Speaker 1: game where pucks are going off of people left, right

642
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 1: and center, and there's so much randomness. You need sort

643
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 1: of a core belief system in a lot of ways,

644
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 1: and that kind of comes down to the math. Now,

645
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 1: the bad news for you, Renee, is that you live

646
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: in a place, and used to live in a place

647
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 1: that has two of the most and I don't want

648
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 1: this to sound mean, but overrated teams and what I meant,

649
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: but it isn't necessary because they're overright, because they're not good.

650
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 1: They're both really good hockey teams. But in Toronto, right

651
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 1: everybody bets on the lease and the prices get out

652
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: of control when it comes to betting on the Lease.

653
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 1: I don't think they were an underdog once all season long,

654
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 1: or even really they've.

655
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,479
Speaker 5: They've been the shits for like thirty years.

656
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,239
Speaker 1: But people still yeah, exactly, they still bet them right,

657
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: like they don't care. They're gonna bet a way, right.

658
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 1: You also live in Las Vegas, so of course you

659
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 1: know the sportsbooks that you use are going to be

660
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: tilted towards the Vegas fold Knights because people are just

661
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 1: like you. They want to bet the Golden Knights as well,

662
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: and so those prices go up, which means there's value

663
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 1: on the underdog in both cases more often, way more

664
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 1: often than not. So it can be tricky when you're

665
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 1: just looking to bet your team if it just so

666
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 1: happens that your team is you know, really uh, you know, favored,

667
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: Like literally in the marketplace, we're all you know, Michael

668
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 1: over here, he's an Islanders fan. That guy's getting good

669
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 1: prices on everything, right, Michael. Yeah.

670
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 4: I mean you look at like it's something that takes

671
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 4: a little time to realize. But it's like in the NFL,

672
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 4: you think about like the Dallas Cowboys. The reason that

673
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 4: Dallas Cowboys are always you know, bet up to prices

674
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 4: that they shouldn't be is because they're America's team. The

675
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 4: New York Islanders are certainly not America's team, So, like you'll,

676
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 4: a lot of people still don't know they exist despite

677
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 4: them being pretty good. So the teams like small market teams,

678
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 4: I think we'll see it. A good example for this

679
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 4: will be the upcoming Florida Panthers Tampa Bay Lightning series.

680
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 4: Everybody knows the Tampa Bay Lightning, they know how good

681
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 4: they are. They are even though they're playing hockey in Florida.

682
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 4: They're quote unquote a pretty big market team at this point.

683
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 4: The Florida Panthers are the exact opposite. That you will

684
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 4: see more Toronto Maple Leafs fans that Florida Panthers games,

685
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 4: then you will see Florida Panthers fans. So those things,

686
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 4: when you look for those things and realize them, like okay,

687
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 4: like there's probably going to be a little bit of

688
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 4: value here on the Panthers because people just don't recognize

689
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,239
Speaker 4: them as a team that is good, and they've been

690
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 4: very good all season. They've been very consistent all season.

691
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 4: They're not some plucky little underdog against the defending Stanley

692
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 4: Cup champions. This is a good team that won't be

693
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 4: viewed by the betting public as a very solid team.

694
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 4: So that's like another thing that you just, you know,

695
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 4: want to keep in your mind. As you're looking and

696
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:14,479
Speaker 4: looking at a matchup, you're looking at the numbers, you're

697
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 4: also saying, like, wow, if the Panthers stack up pretty

698
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 4: well against the Lightning, why is this line this way?

699
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 4: And a lot of it just has to do with

700
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 4: the psychology of the casual better and those people who

701
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 4: are just coming to the party for the playoffs just

702
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 4: not really recognizing that this how good a team is

703
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 4: just because of the market they play in the media

704
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 4: coverage they get. Like, let's be honest, the Toronto May

705
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 4: Beliefs are the most over like saturated, media covered team

706
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 4: in the world, and that's why they're treated the way

707
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 4: they are by betters and fans, and that's why people

708
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 4: like me. That's part of the reason people like me.

709
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 4: A big part of the reason people like me despise

710
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:53,959
Speaker 4: the Toronto May Beliefs is the way that they are covered.

711
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 4: I was shocked that, you know, Austin Matthews can go

712
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 4: to the grocery store and its front page on the

713
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 4: Star or whatever, Toronto Sun. So it's it's that stuff

714
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 4: does matter, like you might not think it matters, but

715
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 4: that noise does matter. And being able to kind of

716
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 4: drown it out and just stick to your numbers or

717
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 4: stick to the prices, is you're already ahead of the game.

718
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 1: That's really funny.

719
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, you talk to NHL players and they're always kind

720
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 6: of not that. I mean, obviously they want to play

721
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 6: in the Canadian market because they want a little bit

722
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 6: of that rub from you know, getting all the publicity

723
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 6: and people care about them. But once they get to

724
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 6: go down and yeah, play for Florida, play play for

725
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 6: the Panthers or the Lightning or something, no one's bothering

726
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 6: them in the US. So it's a completely different ballgame.

727
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: Just the fact that Michael knows the newspapers here in

728
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 1: Toronto should tell you all you need to know, right, Like,

729
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 1: that's something right there. But I think he's right right,

730
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: it's branding, and you know, we buy stuff right all

731
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 1: the time, and you know, we pay for the branding

732
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 1: and in some cases we overpay for the branding in

733
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 1: the shoes that we buy, in the cars that we

734
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 1: drive right you know, right off the lot that you

735
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: just pissed away a bunch of money on a car

736
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: that you really wanted, right, new Boom, all of a sudden,

737
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 1: ten thousand dollars, You're never going to get that back.

738
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 1: Kind Of the same thing when it comes to shopping

739
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 1: for prices with these teams and these brands. Right, you know,

740
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: when you bet on the least, you might win, Right,

741
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 1: you might win. You might win with the defending Stanley

742
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:16,439
Speaker 1: Cup champion. I'd throw the Pittsburgh Penguins in there because

743
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 1: of the branding of Sydney Crosby. Right, you know that

744
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 1: you might win, but you've also given away value in

745
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 1: order to do so. So it's up to you to

746
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 1: sort of decide whether you know, you can sort of

747
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: make a case that beyond the you know, the lack

748
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 1: of value in betting that team. That's how convinced you

749
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 1: are of that team winning.

750
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 4: And there's nothing wrong with with just approaching it that way.

751
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 4: Like we're not here to pass a judgment on someone

752
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,800
Speaker 4: who just wants to sit back watch a game of hockey.

753
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:43,760
Speaker 4: And you'll bet on a good team like it takes

754
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 4: I'll plug a you know, bet on the action athletic

755
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 4: tonight for example, Like I'm betting the Auto Senators. There's

756
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 4: a big underdog, and people reach out to me and

757
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 4: just they'll call me crazy or whatever I want, like

758
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 4: whatever they want to say, and yes they're right. But

759
00:34:56,600 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 4: also like just some people aren't conditioned to appreciate betting

760
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:02,399
Speaker 4: that way, and there's nothing wrong with that, Like there's

761
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 4: nothing wrong with just sitting back and being like, hey,

762
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 4: I'm a Vegas Golden Knights fan. They might be minus

763
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 4: two fifty tonight against the San Jose Sharks, but I

764
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 4: want to root for my team and I want to

765
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,799
Speaker 4: have even more of like an emotional investment in that game.

766
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 4: So go right ahead, you know, We're just here kind

767
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,319
Speaker 4: of to kind of guide people along on the ride

768
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 4: and maybe uh, open open eyes the different ways of

769
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 4: approaching betting, because like, like it's like working with yoga

770
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 4: or something like it. The more the more you do it,

771
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 4: the more layers you start to realize, and the more

772
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 4: you start to appreciate those layers and what it kind

773
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 4: of brings to the whole experience. And and if it

774
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 4: is a new sport to you, like there's no better

775
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,800
Speaker 4: way to getting into a new sport than actually betting

776
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 4: on it, Like I started watching Australian rules football by

777
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 4: betting on it, and I love it. Now I'm watching

778
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 4: I pay pay to watch it because I'm out of

779
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:47,799
Speaker 4: my mind.

780
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 5: But it's like generate shit, my friend, Yeah it is.

781
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 4: But I'm in it for the culture. I'm in it

782
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 4: for the culture, not for the rush, I promise. I'm

783
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:56,880
Speaker 4: just learning about all these great cultures. It's nothing to

784
00:35:56,920 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 4: do with with my with me and my degeneracy promise.

785
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 6: Okay, So the tipping point then, so, like you know,

786
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 6: someone like myself, prime example for me to get invested.

787
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 5: I will vote or vote, I will bet for.

788
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 6: Either the Golden Knights, Toronto Blackhawks, what have you? A

789
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 6: team that I'm already kind of invested in and betting

790
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 6: the puck line is probably the best way for me

791
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,320
Speaker 6: to dip my toe into the water, to feel like

792
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 6: I'm kind of getting somewhere and not just get completely

793
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 6: discouraged right off the bat.

794
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,319
Speaker 1: I'd say, I mean, yeah, from if you're combining sort

795
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,280
Speaker 1: of value with how you're going to watch the game.

796
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 1: But again, the problem is right with your two teams

797
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 1: there in Toronto and Vancouver. Of course, Chicago as a

798
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 1: you know, died in the world Canucks fan, sorry to

799
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 1: see them not make the playoffs, but you know you're

800
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,359
Speaker 1: backing the favorite in that in that instance, right, you

801
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 1: do have if you go with the underdog. Right, So

802
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 1: Toronto's gonna play Montreal. If you bet Montreal plus one

803
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 1: and a half on the puck line, you find yourself

804
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 1: in this little happy medium potentially if Toronto wins the

805
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 1: game by one, where you win your bet and your

806
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 1: team wins, right, And it's sort of almost a you know,

807
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 1: emotional hedge, if you will, we sort of call it

808
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 1: that in the betting game, right, where you're a fan

809
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 1: of one team, they could you know, listen, if they

810
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 1: win by two goals, you you know, didn't have a

811
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 1: heart attack during the game, and maybe that costs you

812
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 1: ten bucks and that's okay. And if they lost, you

813
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 1: win the bet. And if they win by one, they

814
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 1: win in overtime, double the celebrations because you got a

815
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 1: little extra money in your pocket. So I would never

816
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 1: sort of advise betting the favorite on the puck line.

817
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 1: That is to me sort of a sucker bet because

818
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:35,799
Speaker 1: of the price that it offers. Right, It's like, oh,

819
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: you could double your money. They just have to win

820
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,240
Speaker 1: by two oh, hockey teams win by two all the time.

821
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 1: But as I sort of mentioned, right from a record

822
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: keeping standpoint, over the course of an entire playoffs, over

823
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,719
Speaker 1: the course of you know, your betting life, if you will,

824
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 1: it's just not going to work out in your favor.

825
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:55,240
Speaker 1: Just consistently going to that well, because all these teams

826
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 1: are really good in the NHL, and winning by two

827
00:37:57,840 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 1: is really really are.

828
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 6: In Yeah, it's it's all just it can be a

829
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 6: little bit overwhelming trying to see like where to start

830
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 6: and what makes the most sense.

831
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 5: Moving over to like the AHL.

832
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 6: Would you bet differently in the AHL than you would

833
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 6: the NHL.

834
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 1: I've literally never made an AHL bet in my life.

835
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 1: I didn't even know that was a thing.

836
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 4: It is, it is they do. They do offer it

837
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 4: from time to time, and I remember, you know, seeing

838
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 4: it on a sports book. I can't remember where what

839
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 4: it was, but it might have been just like like

840
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 4: my local book, and being like what if I don't

841
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 4: I don't even want to look at it because I'm like,

842
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:33,879
Speaker 4: I can't I can't take another step forward and bet

843
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 4: start betting it. But I mean that you can bet

844
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 4: on the Russian Hockey League and like the KHL and stuff. Yeah,

845
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 4: I mean, like like the answer in betting it can

846
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 4: you when when you start a question with can you

847
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 4: bet on? The answer is almost always yes, like someone

848
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:48,399
Speaker 4: will be posting a line for it. But I mean,

849
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:50,799
Speaker 4: the best way to One of the great things about

850
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 4: the action app is it can seem overwhelming, but the

851
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 4: first layer of it is is basically just finding a

852
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 4: couple of people who you know and trust and and

853
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 4: seeing what they're betting. Following you don't even have to

854
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,840
Speaker 4: tail their pick. But if you see Matt is betting

855
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 4: on the Nashville Predators against the Carolina Hurricanes, you can say, well,

856
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 4: you know, I think Matt's a pretty smart guy. He

857
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 4: looks at the the matchups very you know, black and

858
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 4: white and doesn't really let his heart get in his

859
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,320
Speaker 4: way in the way. But so what you start answering

860
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 4: asking yourself, like, why do you think Matt sees value

861
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 4: on a team like Nashville against a better team like Carolina.

862
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 4: So that's always a good way just to like kind

863
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 4: of pay attention to the app almost passively to see

864
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 4: what where where people are going and who the people

865
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 4: are and you know, because then you can also be

866
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 4: like I'm gonna follow my friend who I know is

867
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 4: just you know, a degenerate who likes to bet favorites,

868
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:42,880
Speaker 4: and you could say, okay, but they might be on

869
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 4: the favorite be like, well, if this kind of makes sense.

870
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:47,720
Speaker 4: I got the guy who just looks at the numbers

871
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 4: and he's you know, maybe maybe a little bit boring

872
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 4: in the way he approaches it, against the person who's

873
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:53,800
Speaker 4: just you know, like you said, Jesus take the wheels,

874
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 4: sitting on the edge of their seat and just kind

875
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 4: of just like flying, flying by the seat of their

876
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:59,840
Speaker 4: pants and hoping that they get lucky. So that's the

877
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 4: that's a good thing about you know what we do

878
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:03,799
Speaker 4: at Action Network because we do kind of put that

879
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 4: stuff right in front of you.

880
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,360
Speaker 1: Didn't know that we'd get some yoga references from Michael

881
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 1: to Dead That was a surprise to me as well.

882
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 5: We got to get our chakras aligned.

883
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 6: We've got to be all zen while we make these bets.

884
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 6: My last question a half for you guys is how

885
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 6: what is the most amount of money you've made betting

886
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 6: on the NHL.

887
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,839
Speaker 4: Well, I'm going to start with the heartbreaking story before

888
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 4: I get to the.

889
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 1: Happy as always do.

890
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:28,319
Speaker 4: I was all over the Winnipeg Jets preseason. Actually, when

891
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:30,399
Speaker 4: the Vegas Golden Knights made it to the Stanley Cup,

892
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 4: they beat the Jets in that Western Conference Final, and

893
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 4: I was all over the Jets from basically the second

894
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 4: the market opened, right after the previous Stanley Cup, and

895
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 4: they were at like eighty to one, sixty six to one,

896
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 4: and I just kept betting them, and I was standing

897
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 4: if had the Jets made it to the Stanley Cup,

898
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 4: not only was I in a good position to hedge,

899
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 4: but even if I didn't hedge, like I was in

900
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 4: a pretty good position to make a lot of money.

901
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 4: And also was this was right when I started at

902
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 4: Action Network too, so I looked like like a genius

903
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:02,839
Speaker 4: for a little while there too. But you know, they

904
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 4: did they played pretty well in that series but ended

905
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 4: up losing, and it was just like another kind of

906
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:11,840
Speaker 4: you know, kicking the gut in in this kind of

907
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 4: long line of it. But then the following us two

908
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 4: years whatever it was, when the Blues, so the Blues

909
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 4: were in last place in the entire Nhallenge January first

910
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 4: and ended up putting things together. They they kind of

911
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 4: showed some signs like we do look for these signs

912
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 4: like these expected goals, like maybe a team is driving

913
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:32,720
Speaker 4: play at five and five, but they're not converting their chances.

914
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 4: The Blues kind of were like that. They started to

915
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 4: get better goaltending, and all of a sudden they were

916
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 4: climbing up the standings and I had them at you know,

917
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 4: forty five to one and thirty to one on their journey.

918
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 4: I didn't. I wasn't one of the lucky few to

919
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 4: get them at you know, the two fifty to one

920
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 4: that they were at around New Year's Day. But that

921
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 4: was probably my biggest win in hockey. It was. It was,

922
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 4: you know, to me, pretty substantial. It definitely helped put.

923
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 5: Some uh give us an number, let's just say, I'll.

924
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 4: Put it this way, like it definitely helped me pay

925
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 4: for my wedding and stuff and stuff like that. Like, yeah,

926
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 4: it was it was you know, I won't I won't

927
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:13,439
Speaker 4: ever tell my my my darling wife Emily that she

928
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 4: she doesn't listen to this. She could care less, but like,

929
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 4: you know, part of like her her, Yeah, her, her

930
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 4: big Night was paid for by Jordan Bennington and the

931
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:23,480
Speaker 4: Saint Louis Blues. We actually got a big poster of him.

932
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 4: We had a big poster of him in the in

933
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 4: the wedding.

934
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 6: You should tell her that put a little respect on

935
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 6: your name.

936
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 5: Got that done.

937
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 4: I like to have her think that, like it's just

938
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 4: through hard work and ingenuity and stuff like that.

939
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,359
Speaker 1: And let's not kid ourselves. That's the same thing, my friend.

940
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:38,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's true, that's true.

941
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 1: Any more tips for her?

942
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 4: No, just yeah, embrace, embrace the pain, Embrace the paint,

943
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:45,960
Speaker 4: because we now have dragged you in. I always like

944
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 4: to say that Albert Kamu, who's a French philosopher who

945
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 4: has a thing about in life, you just got to

946
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 4: imagine Sissyphis like I was rolling that ball up the

947
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 4: hill for eternity. If you can imagine him happy, you

948
00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 4: will be happier. And that's kind of how I approach

949
00:42:58,920 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 4: hockey betting.

950
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: So sports betters literally just sit around and come up

951
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 1: with metaphors to explain how sports betting works to non

952
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 1: sports betters, because really, until you experience it right, you

953
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 1: don't really know. Now, I know you're in a condition

954
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 1: if you will, do you have a doctor's note in

955
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:19,839
Speaker 1: order to bet on the Stanley Cup playoffs at this

956
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,320
Speaker 1: point in time, because I feel like that's probable your labor.

957
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I could induce my labor at this point.

958
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 1: I'm very worried about you.

959
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 6: Even just watching the other night with the Golden Knights

960
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 6: looking for them to clinch the West, I was like,

961
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:35,240
Speaker 6: just I get so aggressive just screaming at my TV.

962
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:38,280
Speaker 6: It really could lead me in the direction of water breaking.

963
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:40,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, well there you go. That's not gonna happen to

964
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:41,439
Speaker 1: Michael Row.

965
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 5: But that would be very Canadian of me.

966
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, she is Canadian and because of that, she

967
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 1: already knows more about hockey than you do. She's on

968
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 1: Twitter at Renee Piquette, and she's on the Action Network

969
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:57,319
Speaker 1: app Renee Underscore Piquette, so you can follow her and

970
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 1: see how she does in all of this. To me,

971
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:03,439
Speaker 1: there may be a day or two in there where

972
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 1: she's got some other things going on in her life

973
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 1: and isn't able to get down on a game. Thanks

974
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 1: for hanging out with us today. This is blast.

975
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:11,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, thanks for having.

976
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 6: Me on guys, thanks for the insight, and yeah, you know,

977
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 6: being a Las Vegas resident now, it's about damn time

978
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 6: I learned how to gamble a little bit.

979
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 1: You know.

980
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 4: That's the spirit.

981
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 1: Just in time there, just in time to be a parent.

982
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah right, thanks her name.

983
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 5: Thanks guys.

984
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 2: This is Action Network podcast producer Matt Mitchell here to

985
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,160
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986
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:36,839
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990
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991
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1003
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:29,480
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1005
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1006
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1007
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1008
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 2: in Indiana, one eight hundred and twenty seven zero seven

1009
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:43,880
Speaker 2: to one one seven in Michigan, one eight hundred eight

1010
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 2: nine nine seven eight nine in Tennessee. One eight hundred

1011
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,080
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1012
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1013
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:54,320
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. Now back to the show.

1014
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 1: Michael, how much fun was that pourin a doesn't know

1015
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 1: what she's getting herself into? All right, man, let's keep

1016
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 1: the Canadian vibes going, and let's start our series by

1017
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 1: series examinations here with the North. Also to let you

1018
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,919
Speaker 1: start here Toronto and Montreal. You talked earlier obviously about

1019
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 1: you're not feeling Toronto, but does that mean you're feeling

1020
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 1: Montreal here potentially at a big price. Right now, we're

1021
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:23,280
Speaker 1: seeing numbers, you know, in the mid plus two hundreds

1022
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 1: here for a series price for Montreal, you know, Hunter's

1023
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:28,400
Speaker 1: chance or no for you.

1024
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not a bet. I'm like thrilled to make

1025
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:35,840
Speaker 4: for sure. But like, here's the thing, Like the Canadians

1026
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 4: have been bad too, Like the Jets for pretty good

1027
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 4: for a good amount of time, but before that they

1028
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 4: were good and they just weren't getting the results, and

1029
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 4: so you wonder, like where did that team go? Part

1030
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:47,799
Speaker 4: of it, I think is that Brenda Gallagher, who is

1031
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 4: a menace and a great play driver, has been hurt

1032
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 4: with a broken hand or something. You think he's back

1033
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:57,359
Speaker 4: for Game one. They're hopeful, and they are a deep team.

1034
00:46:57,440 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 4: They might not blow you away with star power, but

1035
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:01,760
Speaker 4: they're deep team. And it comes down to one question

1036
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 4: with the Canadians, and that is if Carrie Price is starting,

1037
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 4: which I assume he will because that's what the Canadians do,

1038
00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 4: even though he's got worse numbers than Jake Allen and

1039
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 4: they're in the regular season. Like, if Carrie Price plays,

1040
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 4: does he play like the nine thirty goalie we saw

1041
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 4: in the the nine thirty eight percentage goal that we

1042
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:19,919
Speaker 4: saw in the playoffs, last year, or does he play

1043
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 4: like the one we've seen in the regular season for

1044
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 4: the past three or four years, which is closer to

1045
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 4: nine hundred And I'm I'm pretty skeptical. But if they

1046
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:29,400
Speaker 4: do play Jake Allen all of a sudden, you're saying

1047
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 4: you got to give the Canadians a goaltending edge. I

1048
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 4: think over Campberlan or Frederick Anderson, whoever the Leafs go with.

1049
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 4: And there's also a lot of pressure on the Leaf's

1050
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 4: coaching staff to get that call right. So like, if

1051
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 4: they go with the wrong guy all of a sudden,

1052
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 4: like we've talked about, the Leafs are covered in a

1053
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:49,320
Speaker 4: very peculiar way and you'll see fires everywhere in Toronto

1054
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 4: if maybe the Canadians rush race off to a one

1055
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:55,360
Speaker 4: nothing lead or one of the goalie struggles. So I

1056
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 4: think that yes, Puncher's Chance. Should you expect to win

1057
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 4: this bet? Absolutely not. But you're talking about a team

1058
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 4: that has shown the ability to play at a very

1059
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:06,279
Speaker 4: high level at plus two fifteen in a best of

1060
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 4: seven series, and I just I don't really think I

1061
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:13,719
Speaker 4: can look away from that price unfortunately. So yeah, I mean,

1062
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 4: I do like the difference between these two series in

1063
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 4: the North is like, I like the serious price much

1064
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 4: more with Montreal than I do with the Jets at

1065
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 4: plus one fifty against the Oilers, but I like the Jets'

1066
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:27,399
Speaker 4: long term path more than I would the Canadians.

1067
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you know, let me put it this way,

1068
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 1: and I think this is going to be the case

1069
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:34,400
Speaker 1: for a couple of different playoffs. Right, what version of

1070
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 1: the Montreal Canadians are we going to get? Because fundamentally

1071
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:41,320
Speaker 1: the Leafs have a type, right, Michael, Remember in high school,

1072
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 1: there was always that girl, right, and she was everybody

1073
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 1: wanted to go out with that girl, and she ended

1074
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:50,400
Speaker 1: up with the guy who had like five tattoos. He

1075
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 1: had an arms leeve. You're like, how does this guy

1076
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:54,799
Speaker 1: have an arms leeve? He's sixteen years old. Where did

1077
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 1: he get these tattoos? Does he have parents? What's the

1078
00:48:57,480 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 1: situation here? Like how long he's he even been in

1079
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 1: high school? I've never seen him in a class, et cetera,

1080
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:04,359
Speaker 1: et cetera. Right, and you could have hit the game

1081
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 1: winning three pointer for five straight games. You could win

1082
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 1: a state title, a provincial title, doesn't matter. She wants

1083
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: the guy with the tattoos. Right, The Toronto Mayple Leafs

1084
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:16,440
Speaker 1: have a type just like she does. And where they

1085
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:19,799
Speaker 1: fall victim is that like defensive version, right, And it's

1086
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:22,799
Speaker 1: been the Boston Bruins over and over again. Right, we saw,

1087
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:25,919
Speaker 1: you know, Bruins light the Columbus Blue Jackets last year,

1088
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 1: knock off the lease. That's the terror that is here

1089
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:33,279
Speaker 1: in Toronto, in Leafland, if you will. And so the

1090
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 1: problem here for Montreal is like they could be that team,

1091
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:38,239
Speaker 1: and you're right, at the start of the season they

1092
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 1: were that team, super stingy with the high danger chances,

1093
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:44,719
Speaker 1: expected goals against incredibly low. And then of course they

1094
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 1: make a coaching change and a bunch of injuries pile up.

1095
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 1: And so was it the coaching change that threw them

1096
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:52,759
Speaker 1: off or was it purely the injuries and guys that,

1097
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, Gallagher a key member. He's coming back.

1098
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 1: So what version are we going to get? Because my

1099
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:01,359
Speaker 1: numbers make Toronto a massive favorite here based on the

1100
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:04,399
Speaker 1: version of the habs that we've seen over they say

1101
00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 1: last two months, right, essentially since they changed coaches. But

1102
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:11,800
Speaker 1: if that version that was the analytics darling from earlier

1103
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 1: on this season and by the way, in previous seasons

1104
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:18,160
Speaker 1: as well, right, if that version shows up and that

1105
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 1: stingy defense type of thing. Now all of a sudden,

1106
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 1: guess what, the Montreal Canadians have an arm sleeve tattooed

1107
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:26,839
Speaker 1: all over them, And now you're going to be in

1108
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 1: just absolute terror here in Toronto over you know what

1109
00:50:31,160 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 1: we might see here, And you're right about carry price, right,

1110
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 1: and the realities are they're gonna have some hard conversations

1111
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:38,879
Speaker 1: here and they've had to have them because that guy,

1112
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 1: I don't want to use the word washed, but we're

1113
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 1: getting there at this point. Do you have any idea

1114
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:48,880
Speaker 1: how disrespectful that is? Like, but he gets, like you said,

1115
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:51,360
Speaker 1: every benefit of the debt and he hasn't even played

1116
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 1: in like a month at this point, So goaltending questions

1117
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:57,359
Speaker 1: abound in this, and you know, I think a lot

1118
00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 1: of people are going to be backing Montreal because again

1119
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:04,280
Speaker 1: I've lived here for fifteen years, Michael, and I've literally

1120
00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 1: never seen the Toronto Maple Leafs win a playoff series

1121
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 1: like that's insane, and so it's really hard to go, yeah,

1122
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:13,400
Speaker 1: you know what, I want Toronto at a pretty big

1123
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:16,760
Speaker 1: number here on the series price like that just doesn't

1124
00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:18,879
Speaker 1: sound like a thing to do. But again, if you're

1125
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:20,800
Speaker 1: getting the version of Montreal that we've seen over the

1126
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 1: last month or so, it's actually not that bad of

1127
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 1: a price. So I think you're right, like this is

1128
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 1: dog or nothing in this case. But you know, again,

1129
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 1: if we get the version of Montreal here, and I

1130
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 1: think we'll know that pretty soon, right if it's a

1131
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 1: low scoring game one, even if Toronto wins, maybe that's

1132
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 1: an opportunity to get an even better price on Montreal

1133
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:43,359
Speaker 1: knowing that, like it might be one of these series

1134
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 1: where like looks like we're in for a fistfight type

1135
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 1: of situations, right, even if Toronto goes up one to nothing.

1136
00:51:49,560 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 1: So you know, meanwhile, like like you mentioned, this division

1137
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 1: has these run and gun type teams, right, which is

1138
00:51:57,080 --> 00:51:59,359
Speaker 1: perfect for Toronto, and so they you know, the league

1139
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 1: here might have fallen ass backwards into getting Toronto into

1140
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 1: the semi finals, which is good for the league. It's

1141
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:09,759
Speaker 1: what they want here, right. Bad news is nobody can

1142
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:12,279
Speaker 1: go outside here in Toronto still, and so you're not

1143
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 1: going to get the vibe right the Maple Leaf Square.

1144
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 1: The thing that actually attracts people to watch some of

1145
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:20,960
Speaker 1: these games is just watching outside of the arena and

1146
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:23,400
Speaker 1: the chaos and suing and so this would be quite

1147
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 1: quite the irony, if you will, that we get that

1148
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 1: when nobody can see it, right, it's a tree falling

1149
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 1: in the forest, to set type situation here in Toronto.

1150
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:36,800
Speaker 1: So let's move to the other series in the North Division,

1151
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:38,719
Speaker 1: Edmonton and Winnipeg. And you and I have sort of

1152
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:43,399
Speaker 1: differing opinions here fundamentally about Winnipeg. But you know, does

1153
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:45,399
Speaker 1: that mean you're going to back Winnipeg. You talked about

1154
00:52:45,400 --> 00:52:47,480
Speaker 1: a plus one fifty. I've seen as high as plus

1155
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:52,280
Speaker 1: one seventy five for Winnipeg. That even me, who despises Winnipeg. Again,

1156
00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 1: nothing personal, it's all in the black and white. I

1157
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 1: could care less about you as a group Manitoba. But

1158
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:01,279
Speaker 1: you know, is there a number that you're looking for here?

1159
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 1: Because at plus one seventy five, I'm kind of like,

1160
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 1: you know what, that's actually pretty good for the Jets,

1161
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 1: even though I have sort of a different opinion, you know,

1162
00:53:09,239 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: than you do.

1163
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I think if it creeps up towards

1164
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 4: that one seventy range, if I can find a one

1165
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 4: seventy somewhere, I'm in. I think one fifty is a

1166
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:19,880
Speaker 4: little short. But I, like I said, like this Jets

1167
00:53:19,880 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 4: team has has they have like the escape valves for

1168
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 4: the for losing the five on five battle, which is high,

1169
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:29,960
Speaker 4: high quality finishers, great goaltender. Give me the Jets one seventy,

1170
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:31,920
Speaker 4: Give me the Jets, you know, to win the Stanley

1171
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:34,600
Speaker 4: Cup whatever it is. Both those bets probably burning those

1172
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 4: tickets pretty quickly, but you know you got to take

1173
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 4: some chances.

1174
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:40,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, and one thing I should mention, or I'm sort

1175
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 1: of contractually obligated for my own self to mention here

1176
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 1: is how to bet the Oilers. I wrote. I want

1177
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 1: to call it a preview necessarily, but to call him

1178
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 1: for the Action Network a couple of weeks ago, because listen,

1179
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:54,840
Speaker 1: this Oilers team, you mentioned it right, there's not much

1180
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 1: to them other than Conor McDavid. But newsflash, he is

1181
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 1: that good. So if you like the oil in any

1182
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 1: of these games, in any of their existence, right, find

1183
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 1: ways to just back Connor McDavid. Him over one and

1184
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 1: a half points has been a cash festival for us

1185
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:13,759
Speaker 1: since I wrote that preview for the Action Network. And

1186
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:15,840
Speaker 1: so is that going to be the same situation for

1187
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 1: the playoffs against this Jets team. I don't know why not? Right,

1188
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:21,040
Speaker 1: Why wouldn't he be getting two points per game? They

1189
00:54:21,080 --> 00:54:23,319
Speaker 1: may lose, the game doesn't matter. And so the way

1190
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:25,400
Speaker 1: the volatility has gone here with the pricing, I just

1191
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:28,479
Speaker 1: want to mention is like two weeks ago, they would

1192
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 1: be minus you know, one thirty on the money line,

1193
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:33,560
Speaker 1: but his over one and a half would be minus

1194
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 1: one oh five, And it's like, if they're gonna win,

1195
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:38,880
Speaker 1: he's gonna get two points. That's just what Connor McDavid does.

1196
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:41,399
Speaker 1: That's how much he means to that team more than

1197
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:46,279
Speaker 1: literally anybody else, maybe on any team ever in the world. Right, Like,

1198
00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 1: given their successes here and the way that it started moving,

1199
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:51,720
Speaker 1: they would be minus two to fifty against the Canucks

1200
00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:54,279
Speaker 1: and his price would be minus one fifty to go

1201
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:56,399
Speaker 1: over one and a half points. You're still like, I'm

1202
00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:58,640
Speaker 1: going to take the over on his points. That's a

1203
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:01,640
Speaker 1: value play. And then all of a sudden it flips.

1204
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 1: The last week or so we saw him against Montreal,

1205
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 1: they would be minus one oh five on the money line,

1206
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:11,319
Speaker 1: and guess what McDavid was minus one thirty to get

1207
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 1: over one and a half points. Like, all of a sudden,

1208
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:16,759
Speaker 1: he was heavily favored, more so than the team was,

1209
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:18,840
Speaker 1: so we have to keep an eye on this. But again,

1210
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:22,319
Speaker 1: if you're backing the oilers because of McDavid, just bet

1211
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 1: on McDavid and I alluded to it early and we're

1212
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna re allude to it later. There's another

1213
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 1: way to bet the oilers here that involves McDavid. That

1214
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:34,800
Speaker 1: will save for the end of the show. And so listen.

1215
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:36,560
Speaker 1: If I could, I would replace this. You know, I

1216
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:39,240
Speaker 1: put the Senators into the playoffs here instead of the Jets.

1217
00:55:39,239 --> 00:55:42,440
Speaker 1: But nobody listens to me, and there's absolutely no voting

1218
00:55:42,520 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 1: going on as far that as that process is concerned.

1219
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 1: So we talked about the North, We talked about the

1220
00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 1: Canadian Division. For me, that was that was one for me.

1221
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:53,280
Speaker 1: Let's give it one for you here, right the East Division.

1222
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 1: Let's start with might as well, right, the Islanders and Pittsburgh,

1223
00:55:57,520 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 1: and let's just get it out there right now. You

1224
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:01,640
Speaker 1: and I are both bet the Islanders here on the

1225
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 1: series price I know it, and tell us why you're

1226
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:06,480
Speaker 1: doing it other than the fact that you're going to

1227
00:56:06,520 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 1: be in the house for some of these games.

1228
00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:10,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, definitely be in the house. I'm hoping to get

1229
00:56:10,400 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 4: to Pittsburgh maybe for a game if the stars aligned.

1230
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 4: But like this team, the ceiling is there. They've shown it.

1231
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:20,840
Speaker 4: They showed it for a considerable amount of time. This

1232
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:22,319
Speaker 4: wasn't just like a flash in the pan for the

1233
00:56:22,320 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 4: Islanders where they played well for like a ten game stretch.

1234
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:26,840
Speaker 4: This was like a thirty five to forty game stretch

1235
00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:28,920
Speaker 4: and then their season got jolted a little bit by

1236
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 4: an injury. And guess what, Like the way these seasons

1237
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:34,960
Speaker 4: have gone for every team, the players have been restricted

1238
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:37,400
Speaker 4: on the road. They've been they can't really talk to

1239
00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 4: each other in hotels whatever whatever you know now by now,

1240
00:56:40,640 --> 00:56:43,279
Speaker 4: like the rules for playing road games kind of suck.

1241
00:56:44,000 --> 00:56:45,840
Speaker 4: That's gonna wear on you. So the fact that the

1242
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 4: Islanders kind of petered out towards the end of the

1243
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 4: season when they basically knew they were already in the playoffs,

1244
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 4: and we're dealing with an injury and also integrating new

1245
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:56,480
Speaker 4: players into a very heavy on the detail system that

1246
00:56:56,560 --> 00:56:59,319
Speaker 4: takes some time for new players to get involved in,

1247
00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:02,359
Speaker 4: especially important ones, Like you can probably give them an

1248
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:04,279
Speaker 4: excuse like you can for a horse having a bed

1249
00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:06,280
Speaker 4: trip in a horse race or something before the derby.

1250
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 4: So I'm willing to kind of cross those last fifteen

1251
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:13,520
Speaker 4: games off for the Islanders and think even if they

1252
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:15,800
Speaker 4: don't play their best brand of hockey, like the Jets,

1253
00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:19,040
Speaker 4: they have an escape valve and their goaltender, Simeon Varlamov,

1254
00:57:19,320 --> 00:57:22,280
Speaker 4: has been playing at an unreal level for you know,

1255
00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 4: basically the whole season. He's been one of the best

1256
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:26,200
Speaker 4: goalies in league. He could be a vest and a candidate.

1257
00:57:26,280 --> 00:57:29,080
Speaker 4: He led the league in shutouts. He is gives the

1258
00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:32,200
Speaker 4: Islanders that plan B and guess what like They play

1259
00:57:32,240 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 4: great defense too, so even if he is not on

1260
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:36,960
Speaker 4: a good if he has a tough game, the defense

1261
00:57:37,040 --> 00:57:38,600
Speaker 4: might play well enough that they don't need him to

1262
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:41,800
Speaker 4: make crazy saves or something. And they're deep upfront like

1263
00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 4: that as good as hot. These are two different teams

1264
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 4: and like they'll play to like similar styles, but the

1265
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:50,600
Speaker 4: way they go about their business a little different. Because

1266
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:54,439
Speaker 4: the Penguins they have superstar level players Sidney Crosby, Jake

1267
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:57,080
Speaker 4: denzil If Guinny, Malcolm Crysltang, you know, the crew. But

1268
00:57:57,120 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 4: they also don't have the deaf the Islanders have. They

1269
00:57:58,920 --> 00:58:01,560
Speaker 4: don't have the goaltending the Islander. This is a susceptible team.

1270
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:03,560
Speaker 4: If the Islanders can find a way to keep this

1271
00:58:03,640 --> 00:58:08,000
Speaker 4: game of predictable or manageable. I like the Islanders to

1272
00:58:08,000 --> 00:58:10,440
Speaker 4: be able to grind out results even though, and I

1273
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 4: think we're getting a decent price here because of the

1274
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:14,280
Speaker 4: Penguins went six and two against the Islanders in the

1275
00:58:14,280 --> 00:58:16,720
Speaker 4: regular season, but two of those wins came in overtime.

1276
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 4: So it's basically you're looking at teams that basically split

1277
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 4: the four games at the eight games, four and four

1278
00:58:21,080 --> 00:58:23,000
Speaker 4: if you want to flip a coin and goes the

1279
00:58:23,040 --> 00:58:25,440
Speaker 4: other way for the Islander. So I think that you're

1280
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:27,680
Speaker 4: getting a good price. There's a lot of different ways

1281
00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:29,760
Speaker 4: I think you can bet the Islanders. Whether it's just

1282
00:58:29,760 --> 00:58:31,360
Speaker 4: to win this series, I think there's a little bit

1283
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:34,120
Speaker 4: of value, Whether it's to win the quot like the

1284
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 4: East Division playoff bracket, I think there's a little bit

1285
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:38,960
Speaker 4: of value, or if you want to bet them to

1286
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 4: win the Stanley Cup. I think there's a lot of

1287
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 4: different entry ways into a team that right now is

1288
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 4: probably at their peak in terms of price since maybe

1289
00:58:46,840 --> 00:58:47,640
Speaker 4: mid January.

1290
00:58:49,080 --> 00:58:51,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting, right because for me, when you add

1291
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:54,280
Speaker 1: what do I want from an underdog, right well, one,

1292
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:56,560
Speaker 1: I want good metrics, right, I want those five on

1293
00:58:56,640 --> 00:59:02,200
Speaker 1: five metrics and my model for the Islanders in that category, right.

1294
00:59:02,240 --> 00:59:04,120
Speaker 1: And then the other thing is, you know, we talked

1295
00:59:04,160 --> 00:59:07,880
Speaker 1: about the Jets and like they get opportunities, they score them. Well,

1296
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:10,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna need a goaltender, right, that's going to be

1297
00:59:10,520 --> 00:59:14,280
Speaker 1: able to stop those really good opportunities off the stick

1298
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:16,720
Speaker 1: of as you know, like you mentioned Carter Ginstall and

1299
00:59:16,760 --> 00:59:19,680
Speaker 1: obviously Crosby and Malcoln and the Islanders have both of

1300
00:59:19,720 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 1: those things here. And so my model makes the Islanders

1301
00:59:22,600 --> 00:59:24,760
Speaker 1: a favorite in this game. And you talked about how

1302
00:59:24,760 --> 00:59:27,880
Speaker 1: the Islanders have struggled down the stretch here some sketchy results.

1303
00:59:28,160 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 1: I've got a little bit of a conspiracy theory and right,

1304
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:32,200
Speaker 1: and Mel Gibson's nowhere to be found in this one.

1305
00:59:32,840 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 1: My conspiracy theory here is the Islanders are completely content

1306
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:39,480
Speaker 1: with taking on the Penguins and new as we got

1307
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:41,960
Speaker 1: down the stretch to the season that you know what,

1308
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:44,600
Speaker 1: the fourth seed isn't the worst thing in the world,

1309
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:46,400
Speaker 1: because that two to three matchup that we're going to

1310
00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 1: talk about in the second year between Washington and Boston

1311
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:51,480
Speaker 1: is rough. I don't want anything to do with either

1312
00:59:51,520 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 1: of those teams. We just handled the Penguins a couple

1313
00:59:54,600 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 1: of years ago where Sidney Crosby had one assist in

1314
00:59:58,040 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 1: a four game suite by the Islanders, a team that

1315
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:03,880
Speaker 1: it's a pretty similar looking team, right, They actually maybe

1316
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:06,200
Speaker 1: all actually a lot better than they were a couple

1317
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:08,240
Speaker 1: of years ago when they knocked off the Penguins. So

1318
01:00:08,520 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 1: my conspiracy is they just are completely fine with this matchup.

1319
01:00:12,000 --> 01:00:13,840
Speaker 1: And if you're sort of looking at the last twenty

1320
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:16,320
Speaker 1: five games of the season, which you know, strangely enough

1321
01:00:16,360 --> 01:00:20,200
Speaker 1: this season is almost half the season, the Islanders have been,

1322
01:00:20,280 --> 01:00:23,080
Speaker 1: you know, right around average. Again, part of that is

1323
01:00:23,120 --> 01:00:26,520
Speaker 1: because of what's happened recently, but so have the Penguins.

1324
01:00:26,560 --> 01:00:30,200
Speaker 1: And of their last twenty five games, twelve almost half

1325
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:33,600
Speaker 1: of those games came against Buffalo and New Jersey, Right,

1326
01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 1: So if you're looking at the Penguins and going like, well,

1327
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:38,280
Speaker 1: they made this huge run to make, you know, to

1328
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:41,040
Speaker 1: get into the first seed here to win the division

1329
01:00:41,360 --> 01:00:44,160
Speaker 1: at eighteen five and two in these last games, well,

1330
01:00:44,160 --> 01:00:47,320
Speaker 1: if you're playing the devils in the Sabers every second game,

1331
01:00:47,560 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 1: like that's the kind of thing that's going to happen, Like, yeah,

1332
01:00:50,080 --> 01:00:52,600
Speaker 1: you are going to win the division if you get

1333
01:00:52,640 --> 01:00:55,800
Speaker 1: those two teams that often here. So I don't think

1334
01:00:55,800 --> 01:00:58,040
Speaker 1: that this is like Islanders are playing badly and the

1335
01:00:58,080 --> 01:01:00,960
Speaker 1: Penguins are playing great in the same way, like you said,

1336
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:03,360
Speaker 1: their head to head matchup is a little bit deceiving

1337
01:01:03,440 --> 01:01:05,960
Speaker 1: here as well. And so once the metrics kind of

1338
01:01:06,000 --> 01:01:08,760
Speaker 1: decide that the Islanders are value, even from just a

1339
01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:13,919
Speaker 1: series standpoint, then everything else islander z becomes value as well.

1340
01:01:13,960 --> 01:01:16,960
Speaker 1: Like you mentioned, right, everything kind of goes off of

1341
01:01:16,960 --> 01:01:19,200
Speaker 1: that series price, So like money lines in the game,

1342
01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:23,440
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, all of the other derivatives if you will, right,

1343
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:25,920
Speaker 1: keeping this series close, you know, plus one and a

1344
01:01:25,960 --> 01:01:28,200
Speaker 1: half on a series price over five and a half

1345
01:01:28,520 --> 01:01:31,400
Speaker 1: on a series game total, all of that stuff sort

1346
01:01:31,400 --> 01:01:34,080
Speaker 1: of falls in line. So I think any bet that

1347
01:01:34,120 --> 01:01:38,040
Speaker 1: you make with an eye on the Islanders being more

1348
01:01:38,080 --> 01:01:40,880
Speaker 1: competitive or even just flat out winning this series, even

1349
01:01:40,880 --> 01:01:43,520
Speaker 1: an alternative minus one and a half on the Islanders,

1350
01:01:43,640 --> 01:01:46,400
Speaker 1: how's that right? Like a pretty juicy number there, potentially

1351
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:48,560
Speaker 1: at like a plus two hunderd dish type of a

1352
01:01:48,640 --> 01:01:51,080
Speaker 1: thing for them to take it down in six games

1353
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:54,479
Speaker 1: or less. I think that's a really good bet. Let's

1354
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:56,000
Speaker 1: go to the other one and this is, you know,

1355
01:01:56,080 --> 01:01:59,000
Speaker 1: for all you know, credit to the Islanders here. The

1356
01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:02,760
Speaker 1: Boston and Washington series in the East is the headliner,

1357
01:02:02,840 --> 01:02:05,160
Speaker 1: if you will. And so this is a lot like

1358
01:02:05,200 --> 01:02:07,520
Speaker 1: Montreal and Toronto in that it's going to be what

1359
01:02:07,640 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 1: version but the opposite, right Boston? What version of Boston?

1360
01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:14,800
Speaker 1: Because since they got Taylor Hall right, their metrics are

1361
01:02:14,840 --> 01:02:17,320
Speaker 1: off the charts, right, like, just give them the Stanley

1362
01:02:17,360 --> 01:02:19,920
Speaker 1: Cup now, because you know what they got a former

1363
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:22,880
Speaker 1: MVP for practically and let's just kind of be honest

1364
01:02:22,880 --> 01:02:26,280
Speaker 1: about it, frankly, nothing right. They just added him to

1365
01:02:26,360 --> 01:02:28,880
Speaker 1: a team that's already pretty loaded. Right. They didn't get

1366
01:02:28,960 --> 01:02:31,240
Speaker 1: very far last year in the playoffs because tuke Rask

1367
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:34,800
Speaker 1: just decided he was out right and again he make

1368
01:02:34,880 --> 01:02:36,920
Speaker 1: the decision you ever want to make here. But that's

1369
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:39,880
Speaker 1: a pretty good excuse for getting knocked out of the playoffs,

1370
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:42,720
Speaker 1: is that you are relying on Yaroslav Halak, who I

1371
01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:44,720
Speaker 1: don't even think is going to suit up in these

1372
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 1: you know, even on the bench here for these games.

1373
01:02:47,600 --> 01:02:50,320
Speaker 1: And so if you look at this season wide from

1374
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:54,320
Speaker 1: a metrics standpoint, Washington here is I think a slight favorite.

1375
01:02:54,920 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 1: They are at home as well, that only I think

1376
01:02:57,040 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 1: really matters once we get to a game seven from

1377
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:02,400
Speaker 1: a win probabilities standpoint. But again, they are a slight favorite.

1378
01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 1: I have them minus one oh two on a neutral

1379
01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:08,680
Speaker 1: ice type situation here, but that's a season long thing.

1380
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:11,280
Speaker 1: And if this Bruins team is the Taylor Hall edition

1381
01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:14,360
Speaker 1: of the Bruins team, again, the opposite of the recent

1382
01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:19,400
Speaker 1: Montreal Canadians edition, I understand. I understand why this Boston

1383
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:23,320
Speaker 1: team is now, you know, pretty decently favored here against

1384
01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:25,840
Speaker 1: Washington because Taylor Hall. I mean, call him the vaccination,

1385
01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:28,320
Speaker 1: because this guy's a shot of life at this point

1386
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:31,040
Speaker 1: for the Bruins season. So I mean, what do you

1387
01:03:31,040 --> 01:03:33,160
Speaker 1: think is there a play here for you? Or has

1388
01:03:33,200 --> 01:03:35,960
Speaker 1: Boston gotten out of the range where they are possibly

1389
01:03:36,200 --> 01:03:38,560
Speaker 1: a play on? And what do you think of the

1390
01:03:38,640 --> 01:03:39,920
Speaker 1: Capitals at this point?

1391
01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:41,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I think that's the way you look

1392
01:03:41,320 --> 01:03:43,360
Speaker 4: at it, right, Like the Bruins. If the Bruins came

1393
01:03:43,360 --> 01:03:45,479
Speaker 4: in at like minus one twenty minus one twenty five,

1394
01:03:46,080 --> 01:03:48,120
Speaker 4: which I think that would have been if the series played,

1395
01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:50,320
Speaker 4: you know, a week ago, I would have been in

1396
01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:53,120
Speaker 4: on it. But I think actually, so you mentioned something

1397
01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 4: before about the Islanders about you know, playing an alternate

1398
01:03:55,600 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 4: or derivative, and I think there's a way to play

1399
01:03:58,320 --> 01:04:01,560
Speaker 4: the series without getting involved with you know, just a

1400
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:04,320
Speaker 4: straight up series line, which if this capitalist price keeps

1401
01:04:04,320 --> 01:04:06,120
Speaker 4: climbing towards like one thirty five, I think I would

1402
01:04:06,120 --> 01:04:07,600
Speaker 4: be involved, but I don't know if it'll get there.

1403
01:04:08,440 --> 01:04:09,960
Speaker 4: When I bet on boxing a lot of times, what

1404
01:04:10,000 --> 01:04:12,240
Speaker 4: I like to do is I step back from the

1405
01:04:12,240 --> 01:04:14,160
Speaker 4: fight and I say, what is the least likely outcome?

1406
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:17,360
Speaker 4: Because in a fight, when you're talking about a prize

1407
01:04:17,360 --> 01:04:21,080
Speaker 4: fight Tyson Fury versus Anthony Joshua, for example, everybody in

1408
01:04:21,120 --> 01:04:22,560
Speaker 4: the world will be talking about it, and they're all

1409
01:04:22,640 --> 01:04:24,320
Speaker 4: going to have the same thing. Oh, this is going

1410
01:04:24,360 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 4: to end in seven, this is going to be a knockout.

1411
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:28,040
Speaker 4: There's no way this fight is ending, or this fight

1412
01:04:28,080 --> 01:04:30,000
Speaker 4: will will just be a slug fest that will go

1413
01:04:30,000 --> 01:04:32,360
Speaker 4: to the judges. Everyone always seems to have a consensus.

1414
01:04:32,640 --> 01:04:34,760
Speaker 4: So in a series like this, which you know kind

1415
01:04:34,760 --> 01:04:37,400
Speaker 4: of is like a prize fight, these two teams, I

1416
01:04:37,520 --> 01:04:39,920
Speaker 4: like to think, all right, if everybody's expecting this to

1417
01:04:39,960 --> 01:04:42,880
Speaker 4: be a grinded out, tough affair, both teams will play

1418
01:04:42,880 --> 01:04:44,919
Speaker 4: a physical brand of hockey. It'll be close. They both

1419
01:04:44,960 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 4: have good defensive numbers, they both have very high end

1420
01:04:48,480 --> 01:04:51,720
Speaker 4: finishers scoring, they could both score, and they both have

1421
01:04:51,920 --> 01:04:53,840
Speaker 4: great number one defenseman. Like, there's a lot of things

1422
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:56,000
Speaker 4: that line up here. But so then I take a

1423
01:04:56,000 --> 01:04:58,160
Speaker 4: step back and say, if everybody thinks this series is

1424
01:04:58,200 --> 01:05:01,320
Speaker 4: going six or seven, that probably means that there's value

1425
01:05:02,360 --> 01:05:05,400
Speaker 4: going against that, right, So I'm thinking, maybe I'll take

1426
01:05:05,400 --> 01:05:08,160
Speaker 4: a shot and do I expect this bet to win now,

1427
01:05:08,320 --> 01:05:09,920
Speaker 4: But like, maybe I'll take a shot on either one

1428
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:11,880
Speaker 4: of these teams to finish it in a sweep or

1429
01:05:11,880 --> 01:05:14,600
Speaker 4: finish it in five something, just to go against the grain,

1430
01:05:15,360 --> 01:05:17,520
Speaker 4: because I think, like we see it all the time.

1431
01:05:17,560 --> 01:05:19,680
Speaker 4: There's always one weird sweep in the NHL in the

1432
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:21,320
Speaker 4: first round. We saw it with the Blue Jackets, we

1433
01:05:21,320 --> 01:05:22,480
Speaker 4: saw it with the Islanders when they did it to

1434
01:05:22,520 --> 01:05:24,800
Speaker 4: the Penguins. Like, things happen, things weird, things happen in

1435
01:05:24,840 --> 01:05:29,920
Speaker 4: the playoffs, And for basically every one of these series,

1436
01:05:29,960 --> 01:05:31,480
Speaker 4: this seems to be the one where everyone has a

1437
01:05:31,480 --> 01:05:33,840
Speaker 4: consensus which, oh this is you know, Bruins and seven

1438
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:36,640
Speaker 4: Bruins at six capitals and seven whatever. So that's how

1439
01:05:36,680 --> 01:05:39,240
Speaker 4: I'm approaching it. I'm gonna look for the biggest price

1440
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:41,560
Speaker 4: on a market like that, like maybe under five and

1441
01:05:41,560 --> 01:05:42,880
Speaker 4: a half or or a.

1442
01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:46,520
Speaker 1: Sweep I like that, and I would sort of piggyback

1443
01:05:46,560 --> 01:05:49,840
Speaker 1: out a little bit here with a total games prompt

1444
01:05:49,960 --> 01:05:53,240
Speaker 1: right my numbers again, it comes out to think that

1445
01:05:53,520 --> 01:05:55,920
Speaker 1: under five and a half total games in this series

1446
01:05:56,040 --> 01:05:58,520
Speaker 1: should be priced at plus one sixty seven. Well, like

1447
01:05:58,560 --> 01:06:01,000
Speaker 1: you said, if everybody thinks this is going deep, I

1448
01:06:01,040 --> 01:06:03,240
Speaker 1: think we might get a better price than that, right,

1449
01:06:03,280 --> 01:06:05,320
Speaker 1: And if I can get better than plus one sixty

1450
01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:07,560
Speaker 1: seven on one of these teams to get it done

1451
01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:10,479
Speaker 1: in five, and it doesn't matter who, right, And it's

1452
01:06:10,680 --> 01:06:14,120
Speaker 1: sort of razor thin, right the margins in the NHL,

1453
01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:17,200
Speaker 1: as you know, right, like it could be an incredibly

1454
01:06:17,280 --> 01:06:20,360
Speaker 1: competitive series from a game to game standpoint where just

1455
01:06:20,400 --> 01:06:22,840
Speaker 1: an overtime goal goes one way and now all of

1456
01:06:22,880 --> 01:06:25,040
Speaker 1: a sudden, the team's up three to one instead of

1457
01:06:25,080 --> 01:06:27,960
Speaker 1: two to two, and now they finish it off potentially

1458
01:06:28,320 --> 01:06:30,480
Speaker 1: in that final game. And by the way, if you're

1459
01:06:30,480 --> 01:06:32,400
Speaker 1: sitting there with that final game it's a three to

1460
01:06:32,480 --> 01:06:36,280
Speaker 1: one series, you're in game five, you can actually kind

1461
01:06:36,280 --> 01:06:37,800
Speaker 1: of play around with that. If you're sitting there with

1462
01:06:37,840 --> 01:06:40,160
Speaker 1: like a plus one eighty plus one ninety type price,

1463
01:06:40,400 --> 01:06:42,880
Speaker 1: because neither team is going to be favored in any

1464
01:06:42,920 --> 01:06:45,600
Speaker 1: of these games by a number higher than that, right,

1465
01:06:45,680 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 1: So it sort of sets you up to go, Okay,

1466
01:06:48,560 --> 01:06:51,720
Speaker 1: somebody be up three to one going into that fifth game,

1467
01:06:51,760 --> 01:06:54,840
Speaker 1: and I can, having watched four games, kind of decide

1468
01:06:55,120 --> 01:06:56,720
Speaker 1: what I think is going to happen. Do I want

1469
01:06:56,720 --> 01:06:58,240
Speaker 1: to get out of that bet maybe it's a cash

1470
01:06:58,280 --> 01:07:00,600
Speaker 1: out situation, or do I want want to come over

1471
01:07:00,640 --> 01:07:04,360
Speaker 1: the top on whoever is you know, down three to one. Right,

1472
01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:06,120
Speaker 1: So there's a bunch of different ways. Like you said

1473
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:08,560
Speaker 1: that you can play it right and so you know

1474
01:07:08,600 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 1: again Tu Karrask hasn't had the best season either, so

1475
01:07:11,720 --> 01:07:13,600
Speaker 1: things could fall off the wagon there a little bit

1476
01:07:14,200 --> 01:07:17,680
Speaker 1: for him, and the Washington Capitol's goaltending has been incredibly

1477
01:07:17,680 --> 01:07:20,520
Speaker 1: suspect as well. So if either of those things kind

1478
01:07:20,520 --> 01:07:22,800
Speaker 1: of go poorly, both of these teams, as you said,

1479
01:07:22,840 --> 01:07:25,560
Speaker 1: can be capable of filling it up. I will mention

1480
01:07:25,680 --> 01:07:28,960
Speaker 1: Brad marsh On thirteen points in seven games this season

1481
01:07:29,320 --> 01:07:32,040
Speaker 1: against the Caps. That's really interesting, I think for me

1482
01:07:32,160 --> 01:07:35,440
Speaker 1: from a prop standpoint in that, like you know, Marshawn's

1483
01:07:35,440 --> 01:07:37,400
Speaker 1: always a gamer when it comes to the playoffs, to

1484
01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:41,240
Speaker 1: everybody's annoyance and irritation. But if you want to try

1485
01:07:41,240 --> 01:07:42,960
Speaker 1: to make some money off of a guy who is

1486
01:07:42,960 --> 01:07:46,440
Speaker 1: incredibly annoying to watch otherwise, right, he's the Patrick Reid

1487
01:07:46,880 --> 01:07:49,560
Speaker 1: of the NHL. Right, Patrick Reid always has great value

1488
01:07:49,600 --> 01:07:52,280
Speaker 1: because nobody wants to bet on Patrick Reed. Same kind

1489
01:07:52,280 --> 01:07:54,760
Speaker 1: of deal with Brad Marshall. Right, we see him licking people,

1490
01:07:54,760 --> 01:07:57,040
Speaker 1: but we don't give him credit for scoring points. And

1491
01:07:57,120 --> 01:07:59,960
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, he's had a really good showing here

1492
01:08:00,080 --> 01:08:03,880
Speaker 1: against the Washington Capitals this season. So let's go back

1493
01:08:03,960 --> 01:08:06,560
Speaker 1: into one of my other sort of bread and butters here,

1494
01:08:06,600 --> 01:08:09,680
Speaker 1: and that's the central Division. And so I want to

1495
01:08:09,680 --> 01:08:12,760
Speaker 1: start off by sort of saying, here, overview big picture thing.

1496
01:08:12,800 --> 01:08:15,640
Speaker 1: With the central we've got what I call a Lawrence

1497
01:08:15,880 --> 01:08:18,840
Speaker 1: Robbie situation. Do you know what the Lawrence Robbie situation is?

1498
01:08:18,880 --> 01:08:21,040
Speaker 4: Michael, No, but I'm very excited to find out.

1499
01:08:21,600 --> 01:08:23,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course you wouldn't know that because I just

1500
01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:26,960
Speaker 1: made it up. Right, Jennifer Lawrence, we're all familiar with

1501
01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:30,479
Speaker 1: her work, and we're also familiar with Margot Robbie's work. Right,

1502
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:33,519
Speaker 1: And so in the early twenty tens, Jennifer Lawrence all

1503
01:08:33,680 --> 01:08:37,599
Speaker 1: the rage, right, she's winning Academy Awards. Everybody loves her.

1504
01:08:37,720 --> 01:08:39,479
Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden, Wolf of Wall Street

1505
01:08:39,560 --> 01:08:43,599
Speaker 1: rolls around and we go Margot Robbie, who is this?

1506
01:08:43,720 --> 01:08:45,639
Speaker 1: And now all of a sudden, she's getting the roles

1507
01:08:45,840 --> 01:08:49,479
Speaker 1: and she's getting the hype and she's getting the awards. Right,

1508
01:08:49,720 --> 01:08:52,400
Speaker 1: she's nominated for the Academy Awards. And not like Jennifer

1509
01:08:52,439 --> 01:08:55,360
Speaker 1: Lawrence went anywhere, but we're not like tripping over ourselves

1510
01:08:55,360 --> 01:08:58,280
Speaker 1: to put her in every movie that we can possibly find.

1511
01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:01,360
Speaker 1: That I think is the situation here in the central right.

1512
01:09:01,360 --> 01:09:04,160
Speaker 1: We talked about it earlier. The Carolina Hurricanes are the

1513
01:09:04,200 --> 01:09:07,320
Speaker 1: Margot Robbie. Right, everybody loves them. We got to put

1514
01:09:07,320 --> 01:09:09,720
Speaker 1: them in everything. We need them in parlays, we need

1515
01:09:09,720 --> 01:09:12,560
Speaker 1: them in futures, we need them everywhere. Right. Meanwhile, the

1516
01:09:12,720 --> 01:09:16,320
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Lightning kind of old news already, right, they

1517
01:09:16,400 --> 01:09:19,439
Speaker 1: won their Stanley Cup. They finally got it, and it's like, yeah,

1518
01:09:19,560 --> 01:09:22,000
Speaker 1: I'd love to watch the Tampa Bay Lightning play hockey,

1519
01:09:22,360 --> 01:09:24,920
Speaker 1: you know, in a nice role there, maybe in American hustle.

1520
01:09:24,960 --> 01:09:28,479
Speaker 1: I don't know, but you know, really what we really

1521
01:09:28,560 --> 01:09:31,920
Speaker 1: want to see is this Margot Robbie Carolina Hurricanes team here?

1522
01:09:32,080 --> 01:09:34,479
Speaker 1: Like this is the squad we want to see here.

1523
01:09:34,520 --> 01:09:37,400
Speaker 1: So people are lining themselves up for the Carolina Hurricanes,

1524
01:09:37,439 --> 01:09:39,360
Speaker 1: and of course they are heavily favored here against the

1525
01:09:39,439 --> 01:09:42,559
Speaker 1: Nashville Predators. I think the Predators might be Nicole Kidman

1526
01:09:42,600 --> 01:09:44,519
Speaker 1: for a couple of different reasons, but that's kind of

1527
01:09:44,560 --> 01:09:47,880
Speaker 1: beyond us at this point. So fundamentally, what do you

1528
01:09:47,920 --> 01:09:50,839
Speaker 1: think of this series that I think I have lined

1529
01:09:50,920 --> 01:09:54,439
Speaker 1: pretty correctly? I had Carolina sort of a minus two

1530
01:09:54,520 --> 01:09:57,760
Speaker 1: thirty six. Here, there's some minus two forties, kind of

1531
01:09:57,760 --> 01:09:59,240
Speaker 1: the best I've seen it, and it's kind of shot

1532
01:09:59,320 --> 01:10:01,040
Speaker 1: up a little bit. So I think people kind of

1533
01:10:01,080 --> 01:10:04,000
Speaker 1: saw minus two forty and saw the same value that

1534
01:10:04,080 --> 01:10:06,320
Speaker 1: I did, and may have sort of bumped that up

1535
01:10:06,320 --> 01:10:07,720
Speaker 1: to here a little bit. But I think you kind

1536
01:10:07,720 --> 01:10:09,599
Speaker 1: of think that Predators have a chance here, or am

1537
01:10:09,600 --> 01:10:09,960
Speaker 1: I wrong?

1538
01:10:10,760 --> 01:10:13,760
Speaker 4: I would like a bigger number because I think the

1539
01:10:13,800 --> 01:10:16,000
Speaker 4: way I'm looking at this is there's one way, and

1540
01:10:16,000 --> 01:10:18,680
Speaker 4: one way only the Predators win the series. That's if yusorrows,

1541
01:10:18,840 --> 01:10:21,599
Speaker 4: who is their goaltender, who was great down the stretch

1542
01:10:22,400 --> 01:10:24,320
Speaker 4: it was playing at like a Vesna level form for

1543
01:10:24,320 --> 01:10:26,120
Speaker 4: the last twenty games. He's got to steal the series

1544
01:10:26,160 --> 01:10:29,240
Speaker 4: because the Hurricanes are just that much better. There's really

1545
01:10:29,240 --> 01:10:31,080
Speaker 4: that's really the only path to success. And for that,

1546
01:10:31,240 --> 01:10:33,160
Speaker 4: I would probably want a little bit of a higher number,

1547
01:10:34,360 --> 01:10:36,559
Speaker 4: but like, yeah, it's it's it's it's dog or nothing.

1548
01:10:36,560 --> 01:10:38,360
Speaker 4: For me, it probably probably would be nothing on the

1549
01:10:38,400 --> 01:10:42,000
Speaker 4: series line. H in this one. It's just I think, yeah,

1550
01:10:42,040 --> 01:10:44,519
Speaker 4: the Hurricanes just seem like they're a little bit of

1551
01:10:44,520 --> 01:10:47,559
Speaker 4: a wagon and we'll have to deal with a tougher

1552
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:49,720
Speaker 4: team in the second round, and of course they can't

1553
01:10:49,720 --> 01:10:52,160
Speaker 4: overlook the Predators. But from a betting standpoint, and I'm

1554
01:10:52,160 --> 01:10:53,519
Speaker 4: not terribly interested.

1555
01:10:54,360 --> 01:10:55,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And I don't know that we need to

1556
01:10:55,880 --> 01:10:57,800
Speaker 1: talk that much about it. I think, you know, I

1557
01:10:57,800 --> 01:11:00,639
Speaker 1: think there might be a little value. The value is

1558
01:11:00,680 --> 01:11:02,760
Speaker 1: maybe not the right word here, but the under five

1559
01:11:02,800 --> 01:11:05,360
Speaker 1: and a half you know here as well, And not

1560
01:11:05,479 --> 01:11:07,920
Speaker 1: because I think you know, either team could you know,

1561
01:11:08,000 --> 01:11:10,280
Speaker 1: take it. It's just more like I think Nashal is

1562
01:11:10,280 --> 01:11:12,720
Speaker 1: probably good for one here. They beat them twice at

1563
01:11:12,760 --> 01:11:14,479
Speaker 1: the end of the regular season when Carolina had nothing

1564
01:11:14,479 --> 01:11:16,599
Speaker 1: to play for other than that. It was a trucking

1565
01:11:16,880 --> 01:11:19,840
Speaker 1: for the first six games in favor of Carolina, So

1566
01:11:20,000 --> 01:11:21,640
Speaker 1: under five and a half at a plus price. I

1567
01:11:21,680 --> 01:11:23,240
Speaker 1: think you can get it at plus one twenty five.

1568
01:11:23,360 --> 01:11:25,720
Speaker 1: I was kind of hoping for plus one forty potentially.

1569
01:11:25,880 --> 01:11:28,559
Speaker 1: Sorrows is an interesting character, just an ugly start for

1570
01:11:28,640 --> 01:11:30,800
Speaker 1: him this season, and now all of a sudden he's

1571
01:11:30,840 --> 01:11:33,360
Speaker 1: it in the top five and goals saved above the average.

1572
01:11:33,520 --> 01:11:36,559
Speaker 1: What an incredible drag job that he did, just carrying

1573
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:39,759
Speaker 1: this team into the playoffs, and for my money, stealing

1574
01:11:39,800 --> 01:11:42,320
Speaker 1: the spot of the Dallas Stars, who you know, again

1575
01:11:42,360 --> 01:11:45,560
Speaker 1: from a metrics standpoint and just branding standpoint, would have

1576
01:11:45,600 --> 01:11:47,240
Speaker 1: been that fourth team that you would have thought in

1577
01:11:47,280 --> 01:11:50,559
Speaker 1: the Central. But the big time series in this division here,

1578
01:11:50,920 --> 01:11:52,839
Speaker 1: the one that's really we're talking about, is the Florida

1579
01:11:52,880 --> 01:11:56,519
Speaker 1: Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning. I haven't decided who

1580
01:11:56,800 --> 01:12:00,000
Speaker 1: the appropriate actresses for the Florida Panthers, but I'll get

1581
01:12:00,080 --> 01:12:03,240
Speaker 1: back to everybody on that one. So again, I make

1582
01:12:03,280 --> 01:12:05,639
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay a favorite here. The market makes Tampa Bay

1583
01:12:05,680 --> 01:12:08,200
Speaker 1: a favorite here, but Florida's higher up in the standings.

1584
01:12:08,240 --> 01:12:10,600
Speaker 1: They are the home team here, and I think you

1585
01:12:10,720 --> 01:12:12,920
Speaker 1: might like the Florida Panthers in this one as your

1586
01:12:12,960 --> 01:12:16,320
Speaker 1: sort of dog, you know, your dog play here for

1587
01:12:16,320 --> 01:12:19,640
Speaker 1: for certainly this division, if not maybe the entire you know,

1588
01:12:19,720 --> 01:12:22,760
Speaker 1: non Islanders edition of the Playoffs. I do.

1589
01:12:22,840 --> 01:12:26,479
Speaker 4: I think at this the current prisis maybe like waited

1590
01:12:26,520 --> 01:12:29,160
Speaker 4: out a little bit. I think, you know, as casual

1591
01:12:29,200 --> 01:12:31,760
Speaker 4: money starts like not everyone's like freaks like you and me,

1592
01:12:31,800 --> 01:12:34,120
Speaker 4: where we're betting these games or the series, you know,

1593
01:12:34,200 --> 01:12:36,800
Speaker 4: seventy two hours before even the first one starts. We

1594
01:12:36,840 --> 01:12:38,519
Speaker 4: don't even have a schedule for other ones. Like when

1595
01:12:38,640 --> 01:12:40,400
Speaker 4: when that rest of the world realizes when the when

1596
01:12:40,400 --> 01:12:42,640
Speaker 4: the Playoffs starts. I think money will probably come in

1597
01:12:42,640 --> 01:12:44,360
Speaker 4: on the lightning. Oh look at this price, We're getting

1598
01:12:44,360 --> 01:12:47,240
Speaker 4: on the best team in the world, and people just

1599
01:12:47,240 --> 01:12:49,719
Speaker 4: don't realize. Like like you said branding before, it's Florida

1600
01:12:49,720 --> 01:12:52,439
Speaker 4: Panthers aren't what you would call a big brand. So

1601
01:12:53,000 --> 01:12:55,599
Speaker 4: I think there's going to be value on the Panthers.

1602
01:12:55,640 --> 01:12:58,160
Speaker 4: I don't know how much I trust their goaltending situation.

1603
01:12:58,200 --> 01:13:00,200
Speaker 4: It's another kind of elephant in the room with a

1604
01:13:00,240 --> 01:13:02,520
Speaker 4: goalie who makes a ton of money in Sergeate Bobrowski,

1605
01:13:02,560 --> 01:13:04,920
Speaker 4: and he's probably their second maybe even their third best

1606
01:13:04,920 --> 01:13:07,840
Speaker 4: goalie on the roster right now. So there's there's some

1607
01:13:07,880 --> 01:13:09,479
Speaker 4: things I want to see shake out before I get

1608
01:13:09,520 --> 01:13:12,080
Speaker 4: involved at the Panthers. Also that the Lightning are dealing

1609
01:13:12,120 --> 01:13:15,280
Speaker 4: with a bunch of like different injury issues. So I

1610
01:13:15,360 --> 01:13:19,320
Speaker 4: am definitely leaning towards Florida. I haven't made that bet yet,

1611
01:13:19,360 --> 01:13:22,160
Speaker 4: but they're They're definitely someone who I'm interested in and

1612
01:13:22,160 --> 01:13:23,840
Speaker 4: and we'll talk about a little later. I'm interested in

1613
01:13:23,840 --> 01:13:28,160
Speaker 4: their derivative markets too on the futures because like this,

1614
01:13:28,400 --> 01:13:31,519
Speaker 4: they definitely have the capability to go far in this tournament.

1615
01:13:32,200 --> 01:13:34,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, what a fascinating team, right, because they lose aeronek

1616
01:13:34,800 --> 01:13:36,920
Speaker 1: Blad a couple of few weeks ago for the season,

1617
01:13:37,200 --> 01:13:39,200
Speaker 1: and then from a metric standpoint five on five, they

1618
01:13:39,240 --> 01:13:41,960
Speaker 1: actually got better, like they were kind of smoking mirrors

1619
01:13:42,000 --> 01:13:44,000
Speaker 1: in it around a little bit too for my liking,

1620
01:13:44,280 --> 01:13:47,639
Speaker 1: at about one percent above average in my market rating.

1621
01:13:48,000 --> 01:13:50,800
Speaker 1: And so they lose that blat and they have been

1622
01:13:50,840 --> 01:13:54,040
Speaker 1: playing at a closer to ten percent above average rating. Now,

1623
01:13:54,080 --> 01:13:56,360
Speaker 1: again small sample size because it's been less than half

1624
01:13:56,360 --> 01:13:59,760
Speaker 1: the season that they've been without him, and so I

1625
01:13:59,760 --> 01:14:01,920
Speaker 1: don't really know what to make And you mentioned Bobrowski,

1626
01:14:02,000 --> 01:14:04,000
Speaker 1: and do we even know if he's going to start

1627
01:14:04,040 --> 01:14:05,839
Speaker 1: in Game one or whether it's going to be Chris Driger,

1628
01:14:06,000 --> 01:14:08,439
Speaker 1: because that makes a really big difference to me, right,

1629
01:14:08,479 --> 01:14:11,080
Speaker 1: and so maybe this is a past situation. But if

1630
01:14:11,080 --> 01:14:13,280
Speaker 1: we do see Driger, I do have sort of the

1631
01:14:13,439 --> 01:14:17,280
Speaker 1: idea here that I like the under in these games here,

1632
01:14:17,320 --> 01:14:19,599
Speaker 1: and I think we're going to maybe get a little

1633
01:14:19,600 --> 01:14:21,760
Speaker 1: bit of an overcompensation for the fact that Tampa is

1634
01:14:21,800 --> 01:14:24,639
Speaker 1: going to get Kucherov and Stamkos back. By the way,

1635
01:14:24,800 --> 01:14:27,200
Speaker 1: what are they hole string, right, because there was no

1636
01:14:27,240 --> 01:14:30,200
Speaker 1: reason for them to come back during the regular season.

1637
01:14:30,200 --> 01:14:32,760
Speaker 1: They've been practicing for a couple of weeks now, so

1638
01:14:32,880 --> 01:14:35,320
Speaker 1: maybe they come out just flying ready to go here.

1639
01:14:35,360 --> 01:14:37,200
Speaker 1: But I think there's going to be an adjustment from

1640
01:14:37,400 --> 01:14:42,000
Speaker 1: practicing to playoff intensity hockey. So I mean, maybe Florida

1641
01:14:42,000 --> 01:14:43,640
Speaker 1: in Game one is a good option there, But I

1642
01:14:43,720 --> 01:14:45,360
Speaker 1: think the under in general, if we can get a

1643
01:14:45,360 --> 01:14:48,720
Speaker 1: flat six on these totals. I've got the numbers from

1644
01:14:48,760 --> 01:14:51,880
Speaker 1: expected goals even strength for the first six games, and

1645
01:14:51,920 --> 01:14:53,519
Speaker 1: I threw out the last two games even though they

1646
01:14:53,520 --> 01:14:55,960
Speaker 1: would help my argument. That's how honest I am with

1647
01:14:56,040 --> 01:14:58,400
Speaker 1: you here. Michael. In the first six games that these

1648
01:14:58,439 --> 01:15:01,360
Speaker 1: two teams played, they average two point eight seven expected

1649
01:15:01,400 --> 01:15:04,200
Speaker 1: goals at even strength. So even if we're giving each

1650
01:15:04,240 --> 01:15:06,920
Speaker 1: team a power play goal, we're still not even quite

1651
01:15:06,960 --> 01:15:11,800
Speaker 1: at five expected goals for the game here. And Vassilevski amazing,

1652
01:15:12,120 --> 01:15:14,760
Speaker 1: Drijia this season amazing, and even the kid that they

1653
01:15:14,760 --> 01:15:17,160
Speaker 1: brought up for a couple of starts still, like you mentioned,

1654
01:15:17,240 --> 01:15:19,960
Speaker 1: might be better than Bobrovski. So if it's not Bobrovski

1655
01:15:20,320 --> 01:15:23,280
Speaker 1: and it is Drijer and it's Vassilevski, as obviously it's

1656
01:15:23,280 --> 01:15:25,960
Speaker 1: going to be here, maybe the under is a play here,

1657
01:15:26,120 --> 01:15:29,240
Speaker 1: especially if we get Kutrov and stamkost back who Again,

1658
01:15:29,280 --> 01:15:31,920
Speaker 1: I think that's interesting as we kind of progress here

1659
01:15:32,000 --> 01:15:34,200
Speaker 1: where they're going to fit in and sort of how

1660
01:15:34,240 --> 01:15:36,640
Speaker 1: they're going to be able to fit in. Not that

1661
01:15:36,680 --> 01:15:39,280
Speaker 1: I'm worried about them from a talent standpoint, but certainly

1662
01:15:39,600 --> 01:15:42,960
Speaker 1: from a you know, listen, Kutros hadn't even played this season, right,

1663
01:15:43,080 --> 01:15:46,439
Speaker 1: and that could be a tough situation for them, at

1664
01:15:46,520 --> 01:15:50,160
Speaker 1: least in game one. All right, fourth and final division here,

1665
01:15:50,280 --> 01:15:52,400
Speaker 1: and let's take people behind the curtain here for the

1666
01:15:52,439 --> 01:15:56,599
Speaker 1: West it's our first bet, if you will, of the playoffs,

1667
01:15:56,600 --> 01:15:59,719
Speaker 1: and it's happening before the playoffs even start. Colorado minus

1668
01:15:59,760 --> 01:16:03,599
Speaker 1: four one hundred tonight at home to win the division

1669
01:16:03,720 --> 01:16:06,000
Speaker 1: and set up the matchups that we're going to talk

1670
01:16:06,000 --> 01:16:10,120
Speaker 1: about here, Vegas Golden Knights against Minnesota and Colorado taking

1671
01:16:10,160 --> 01:16:14,320
Speaker 1: on Saint Louis and so hopefully that quote unquote cash

1672
01:16:14,400 --> 01:16:16,519
Speaker 1: is we're not actually recommending people to bet that, but

1673
01:16:16,760 --> 01:16:18,920
Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna take our chances here with the

1674
01:16:18,960 --> 01:16:22,360
Speaker 1: as winning and taking down the President's Trophy. And so

1675
01:16:22,520 --> 01:16:24,960
Speaker 1: what that would set up, though, is a matchup against

1676
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:27,679
Speaker 1: the Saint Louis Blues, you know, a team that obviously

1677
01:16:27,720 --> 01:16:29,680
Speaker 1: won the Stanley Cup. A couple of years ago, we

1678
01:16:29,680 --> 01:16:32,960
Speaker 1: talked about branding with Renee and the idea that, like,

1679
01:16:33,040 --> 01:16:34,160
Speaker 1: you know what, a lot of people are going to

1680
01:16:34,240 --> 01:16:36,559
Speaker 1: back Saint Louis or think Saint Louis has a chance

1681
01:16:36,600 --> 01:16:40,960
Speaker 1: in this series because of their reputation and Jordan Binnington

1682
01:16:41,120 --> 01:16:44,040
Speaker 1: and Ryan O'Reilly and all of those guys right my

1683
01:16:44,240 --> 01:16:47,120
Speaker 1: numbers live for the Colorado Avalanche. I talked about it

1684
01:16:47,160 --> 01:16:49,719
Speaker 1: a little bit earlier on when we talked about betting

1685
01:16:49,840 --> 01:16:52,360
Speaker 1: for the Stanley Cup. So obviously I like the Abs

1686
01:16:52,400 --> 01:16:55,600
Speaker 1: here and I'm not from again number standpoint afraid of

1687
01:16:55,600 --> 01:16:58,800
Speaker 1: the Saint Louis Blues. Here, the Colorado has everything you'd want,

1688
01:16:58,880 --> 01:17:02,479
Speaker 1: right the scoring, plant, high danger chances five on five

1689
01:17:02,479 --> 01:17:05,320
Speaker 1: this season, try this untra side five hundred and one

1690
01:17:05,720 --> 01:17:08,679
Speaker 1: going into this last game of the season to three

1691
01:17:08,760 --> 01:17:12,080
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty six for their opponents almost and who knows,

1692
01:17:12,120 --> 01:17:14,120
Speaker 1: we might actually hit one hundred and fifty more, one

1693
01:17:14,240 --> 01:17:17,880
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty more high danger chances than their opponents.

1694
01:17:18,120 --> 01:17:21,120
Speaker 1: Like that's like just crack for me at this point

1695
01:17:21,400 --> 01:17:23,760
Speaker 1: in time. They've been great in their last twenty five

1696
01:17:23,840 --> 01:17:26,360
Speaker 1: Saint Louis not so much. So you don't even have

1697
01:17:26,439 --> 01:17:31,080
Speaker 1: sort of a form type situations situation here. I might

1698
01:17:31,120 --> 01:17:33,160
Speaker 1: be willing to lay it, depending on what this price

1699
01:17:33,280 --> 01:17:36,800
Speaker 1: actually is. If it's anything under minus three hundred, I'm

1700
01:17:36,800 --> 01:17:41,080
Speaker 1: probably going here with the Colorado Avalanche. And Michael, what

1701
01:17:41,080 --> 01:17:43,080
Speaker 1: do you think, man? Are you going with the what

1702
01:17:43,200 --> 01:17:45,920
Speaker 1: two years ago Stanley Cup champion here? Or are you

1703
01:17:46,000 --> 01:17:48,200
Speaker 1: riding with me? Are you just walking away? Yeah?

1704
01:17:48,200 --> 01:17:50,200
Speaker 4: I'll probably just walk away from the series price like

1705
01:17:50,240 --> 01:17:53,840
Speaker 4: I think here. I bet the Blues a while ago

1706
01:17:53,880 --> 01:17:56,800
Speaker 4: at sixty to one, thinking you know, maybe they get

1707
01:17:56,880 --> 01:17:59,040
Speaker 4: lucky and they weren't even a shoe in for the

1708
01:17:59,040 --> 01:18:01,680
Speaker 4: playoffs at that point. I thing, I'm betting on the ceiling, right,

1709
01:18:01,680 --> 01:18:03,519
Speaker 4: I'm betting on a team that, like you said, won

1710
01:18:03,560 --> 01:18:05,519
Speaker 4: the Stanley Cup two years ago, last year, best record

1711
01:18:05,520 --> 01:18:08,800
Speaker 4: in the Western Conference before the hiatus. So that's that

1712
01:18:08,920 --> 01:18:11,200
Speaker 4: was the ceiling bet. I think if you are going

1713
01:18:11,200 --> 01:18:13,920
Speaker 4: to bet the Blues to win the series, like you

1714
01:18:13,960 --> 01:18:15,519
Speaker 4: should think about it like that, Like you should be

1715
01:18:15,560 --> 01:18:18,320
Speaker 4: getting paid off big time for taking a stand with

1716
01:18:18,360 --> 01:18:20,960
Speaker 4: the Blues, whether that's doing maybe like a rolling series

1717
01:18:21,000 --> 01:18:23,160
Speaker 4: parlay if they beat the Havalanche somehow and then they

1718
01:18:23,439 --> 01:18:25,280
Speaker 4: beat the Golden Knights, you know, keep rolling it over

1719
01:18:25,320 --> 01:18:27,680
Speaker 4: you get a big number. But yeah, other than that,

1720
01:18:27,760 --> 01:18:31,080
Speaker 4: like it's tough, it's tough to imagine, uh, Saint Louis

1721
01:18:31,320 --> 01:18:34,280
Speaker 4: putting up much of a fight, but you know, you

1722
01:18:34,920 --> 01:18:39,040
Speaker 4: always the standard caveat in Stanley Cup hockey and hockey

1723
01:18:39,040 --> 01:18:42,840
Speaker 4: in generals, it's weird stuff happens. So nothing, nothing too

1724
01:18:42,960 --> 01:18:46,200
Speaker 4: much for me for this series, but definitely if I

1725
01:18:46,200 --> 01:18:47,760
Speaker 4: would go big or go home, if you're going with

1726
01:18:47,800 --> 01:18:48,200
Speaker 4: the Blues.

1727
01:18:49,920 --> 01:18:52,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, and so for me, like, you know, the numbers

1728
01:18:52,479 --> 01:18:55,200
Speaker 1: come out Colorado, Colorado, Colorado. It's the same kind of thing,

1729
01:18:55,240 --> 01:18:57,960
Speaker 1: only in the reverse as we talked about with the Islanders. Right,

1730
01:18:58,200 --> 01:19:01,599
Speaker 1: if the numbers like Colorado, and maybe you know series

1731
01:19:01,680 --> 01:19:04,000
Speaker 1: price is a little bit too rich for you, derivative

1732
01:19:04,080 --> 01:19:07,360
Speaker 1: markets that favor Colorado are also going to have a

1733
01:19:07,479 --> 01:19:09,719
Speaker 1: value price to them. So a minus one and a half,

1734
01:19:10,120 --> 01:19:11,920
Speaker 1: and I think it's worth sort of mentioning a minus

1735
01:19:11,960 --> 01:19:15,200
Speaker 1: one and a half series price when we're talking about favorites, right,

1736
01:19:15,240 --> 01:19:18,599
Speaker 1: and again, in this case, I love Colorado, blah blah

1737
01:19:18,600 --> 01:19:21,280
Speaker 1: blah blah blah, but you know, I don't really want

1738
01:19:21,320 --> 01:19:23,839
Speaker 1: to back them with that money line or that series

1739
01:19:23,920 --> 01:19:25,600
Speaker 1: line price. So I go with the minus one and

1740
01:19:25,640 --> 01:19:27,760
Speaker 1: a half. And the reason I would do that is

1741
01:19:27,800 --> 01:19:29,800
Speaker 1: it's not the same thing as betting on a game.

1742
01:19:29,840 --> 01:19:32,720
Speaker 1: We talked again with Renee about you know, it's really

1743
01:19:32,760 --> 01:19:35,080
Speaker 1: hard to win a hockey game by two goals, but

1744
01:19:35,160 --> 01:19:38,400
Speaker 1: a series, on the other hand, I'll say, it's easy

1745
01:19:38,560 --> 01:19:41,360
Speaker 1: to win a game in six or in five, right,

1746
01:19:41,400 --> 01:19:43,840
Speaker 1: but it's certainly you know, they're more than capable of

1747
01:19:43,880 --> 01:19:47,160
Speaker 1: doing so. And so if I like Colorado the way

1748
01:19:47,160 --> 01:19:50,320
Speaker 1: that I do, I probably don't feel like I need

1749
01:19:50,320 --> 01:19:53,120
Speaker 1: a Game seven as my backup plan, right, And if

1750
01:19:53,160 --> 01:19:56,280
Speaker 1: I'm expecting this to go seven, I probably like the

1751
01:19:56,400 --> 01:19:59,120
Speaker 1: underdog at a really big number, right, So I might

1752
01:19:59,160 --> 01:20:02,479
Speaker 1: as well just for go the series price and take

1753
01:20:02,520 --> 01:20:04,360
Speaker 1: the minus one and a half if I have that

1754
01:20:04,520 --> 01:20:07,559
Speaker 1: much conviction about this team, because if we get to

1755
01:20:07,600 --> 01:20:09,960
Speaker 1: game seven, I've already made a bad bet at that

1756
01:20:10,080 --> 01:20:13,320
Speaker 1: point if I'm backing them on the series price. Yes

1757
01:20:13,360 --> 01:20:15,680
Speaker 1: it's still alive, and yes I still may win, but

1758
01:20:15,760 --> 01:20:18,400
Speaker 1: it's a bad bet at that point. So for me here,

1759
01:20:18,439 --> 01:20:21,840
Speaker 1: I'd rather go big in the Colorado by you know,

1760
01:20:22,040 --> 01:20:24,240
Speaker 1: four to two, four to one, you know, four nothing

1761
01:20:24,280 --> 01:20:26,519
Speaker 1: type of thing here and just kind of go minus

1762
01:20:26,520 --> 01:20:29,280
Speaker 1: one and a half there and in general as well

1763
01:20:29,320 --> 01:20:31,639
Speaker 1: when it comes to these upsets I find in the NHL.

1764
01:20:31,640 --> 01:20:33,280
Speaker 1: And this is kind of a perfect segue because in

1765
01:20:33,280 --> 01:20:37,360
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, the Colorado Avalanche knocked off the Calgary Flames

1766
01:20:37,400 --> 01:20:39,120
Speaker 1: in the first round, and you're sitting there right now

1767
01:20:39,160 --> 01:20:41,720
Speaker 1: and you're going, like, what's the big deal? Like, Colorado's

1768
01:20:41,760 --> 01:20:43,799
Speaker 1: such a good team. The Flames didn't make the playoffs

1769
01:20:43,800 --> 01:20:46,680
Speaker 1: this year. At the time, it was an upset and

1770
01:20:46,800 --> 01:20:49,040
Speaker 1: kind of a big one because the Flames had a

1771
01:20:49,040 --> 01:20:51,439
Speaker 1: good season and the Avs hadn't had so much of

1772
01:20:51,479 --> 01:20:54,080
Speaker 1: a great season. And so, you know, I was on

1773
01:20:54,120 --> 01:20:55,720
Speaker 1: that back then. But what I like to try to

1774
01:20:55,720 --> 01:20:59,400
Speaker 1: do when it comes to upsets is it's tricky, right

1775
01:20:59,520 --> 01:21:01,240
Speaker 1: because you know, you kind of have to do a

1776
01:21:01,280 --> 01:21:04,880
Speaker 1: little you know, future of telling if you a fortune telling.

1777
01:21:05,360 --> 01:21:09,080
Speaker 1: But you know, these teams that knock a team off

1778
01:21:09,160 --> 01:21:12,800
Speaker 1: in the first round, they often become teams that are

1779
01:21:12,840 --> 01:21:15,719
Speaker 1: then favored, right, Like it's usually the start of something,

1780
01:21:15,800 --> 01:21:18,320
Speaker 1: if you will. I think back to the Kings knocking

1781
01:21:18,360 --> 01:21:22,080
Speaker 1: off the Canucks, my Canucks as an eight to one matchup. Well,

1782
01:21:22,160 --> 01:21:24,559
Speaker 1: Kings didn't waste any time. They won the Stanley Cup

1783
01:21:24,560 --> 01:21:26,320
Speaker 1: that year. But you know, we then figured out they

1784
01:21:26,320 --> 01:21:28,920
Speaker 1: were pretty good and we're good for the next few

1785
01:21:29,040 --> 01:21:31,680
Speaker 1: years here, whereas Saint Louis, you know, they might be

1786
01:21:31,720 --> 01:21:34,800
Speaker 1: on the back end of their you know window, if

1787
01:21:34,840 --> 01:21:38,840
Speaker 1: you will, pardon the pun. And so that I think

1788
01:21:38,880 --> 01:21:41,599
Speaker 1: segues us to Vegas and Minnesota. Now, Vegas has been

1789
01:21:41,640 --> 01:21:43,360
Speaker 1: great for a really long time here. But if you're

1790
01:21:43,400 --> 01:21:46,400
Speaker 1: looking at a team that could be on the start

1791
01:21:46,479 --> 01:21:49,960
Speaker 1: of something, I think that team's the Minnesota Wild, and

1792
01:21:49,960 --> 01:21:52,920
Speaker 1: I think obviously you've got the star rookie who is

1793
01:21:53,000 --> 01:21:55,439
Speaker 1: you know, probably going to be awesome for the next

1794
01:21:55,439 --> 01:21:58,760
Speaker 1: ten years, so this might be the beginning of that.

1795
01:21:58,880 --> 01:22:01,040
Speaker 1: And so my numbers here and we'll get your take

1796
01:22:01,080 --> 01:22:03,000
Speaker 1: on this in a second. Here, mon, numers here make

1797
01:22:03,080 --> 01:22:05,920
Speaker 1: Vegas a favorite, but not by that much, because again,

1798
01:22:06,000 --> 01:22:08,800
Speaker 1: Minnesota very good at even strength. Let's talk high danger

1799
01:22:08,920 --> 01:22:11,080
Speaker 1: chances four to forty four this season to three point

1800
01:22:11,040 --> 01:22:15,120
Speaker 1: fifty nine in favor of the Wild, whereas Vegas also

1801
01:22:15,240 --> 01:22:16,880
Speaker 1: very good at five point thirty nine to four to

1802
01:22:16,960 --> 01:22:18,559
Speaker 1: sixty nine. But you can sort of do some quick

1803
01:22:18,560 --> 01:22:20,800
Speaker 1: math there and see that there's not that much of

1804
01:22:20,800 --> 01:22:24,160
Speaker 1: the discrepancy between the two teams, and the Wild people

1805
01:22:24,200 --> 01:22:26,040
Speaker 1: are a gonna be a little bit surprised by this.

1806
01:22:26,200 --> 01:22:30,200
Speaker 1: They actually have an unusually high conversion rate offensively, so

1807
01:22:30,479 --> 01:22:33,120
Speaker 1: the chances that they're getting, which we already just talked about,

1808
01:22:33,360 --> 01:22:35,719
Speaker 1: is a better percentage than they're giving up. They're also

1809
01:22:35,800 --> 01:22:38,479
Speaker 1: scoring on them more than league average, which is not

1810
01:22:38,479 --> 01:22:41,559
Speaker 1: something you think about when it comes to the Minnesota Wild. Vegas,

1811
01:22:41,600 --> 01:22:44,360
Speaker 1: on the other hand, an unusually low high danger chance

1812
01:22:44,400 --> 01:22:46,679
Speaker 1: conversion rate for their offense. So for all the names,

1813
01:22:46,720 --> 01:22:49,719
Speaker 1: the guys that you recognize for the runs that they've

1814
01:22:49,760 --> 01:22:52,960
Speaker 1: been on in the last few years, they're not scoring

1815
01:22:53,000 --> 01:22:55,920
Speaker 1: at nearly as high of a rate as Minnesota is

1816
01:22:55,960 --> 01:22:58,560
Speaker 1: when they get these opportunities. So if this series is

1817
01:22:58,600 --> 01:23:02,040
Speaker 1: a fifty to fifty ish type of series five on five,

1818
01:23:03,040 --> 01:23:06,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be on Minnesota when this number comes out

1819
01:23:06,080 --> 01:23:09,000
Speaker 1: because from a branding standpoint, and don't tell Renette. Everybody

1820
01:23:09,200 --> 01:23:11,240
Speaker 1: quiet that says, you know, we don't have to let

1821
01:23:11,240 --> 01:23:14,160
Speaker 1: her know this. But I think Vegas is, you know,

1822
01:23:14,520 --> 01:23:17,240
Speaker 1: could possibly get upset here, and I'm looking for something

1823
01:23:17,280 --> 01:23:21,200
Speaker 1: above plus one fifty ideally for Minnesota. But I think

1824
01:23:21,240 --> 01:23:23,240
Speaker 1: this is one where we're going to catch Minnesota on

1825
01:23:23,280 --> 01:23:25,360
Speaker 1: their way up here for the next few years. And

1826
01:23:25,439 --> 01:23:27,559
Speaker 1: not that Vegas is going to necessarily go down, but

1827
01:23:27,680 --> 01:23:30,280
Speaker 1: like they've become the hunted here when they used to

1828
01:23:30,280 --> 01:23:33,599
Speaker 1: be the hunter. So I'm looking at the wild here

1829
01:23:34,280 --> 01:23:37,000
Speaker 1: outright for the series at a hopefully a pretty good

1830
01:23:37,040 --> 01:23:38,679
Speaker 1: price here that we'll we'll find out in the next

1831
01:23:38,680 --> 01:23:41,639
Speaker 1: couple of days. Michael, what do you think about this one?

1832
01:23:42,320 --> 01:23:44,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it comes down to the price, like

1833
01:23:44,120 --> 01:23:46,240
Speaker 4: everything in betting, because the Wild do are a little bit

1834
01:23:46,240 --> 01:23:48,120
Speaker 4: of a darling in the betting community, right they out

1835
01:23:48,160 --> 01:23:50,439
Speaker 4: there if they get one as soon as that price opens,

1836
01:23:50,560 --> 01:23:52,800
Speaker 4: I expect if it's up there, if it's in you know,

1837
01:23:52,800 --> 01:23:54,479
Speaker 4: the one forty one fifty range, I think that it'll

1838
01:23:54,520 --> 01:23:58,160
Speaker 4: get bet down and to me like yeah, like these

1839
01:23:58,200 --> 01:24:00,280
Speaker 4: teams are pretty close, so if I can catch a

1840
01:24:00,280 --> 01:24:02,160
Speaker 4: good number like that, I'll totally be on the while.

1841
01:24:02,240 --> 01:24:04,160
Speaker 4: But if it does come down towards like the minus

1842
01:24:04,160 --> 01:24:06,880
Speaker 4: one twenty mark for Vegas, I think then I'll start

1843
01:24:06,880 --> 01:24:10,479
Speaker 4: to get interested. I think Vegas is really turned it

1844
01:24:10,520 --> 01:24:14,080
Speaker 4: on lately. Would talk like they were not all that

1845
01:24:14,160 --> 01:24:16,320
Speaker 4: good for a little while in the in the middle

1846
01:24:16,320 --> 01:24:18,719
Speaker 4: part of the season, and they were getting results thanks

1847
01:24:18,720 --> 01:24:21,920
Speaker 4: to their goaltending mark Andre Flurry, who had a renaissance season.

1848
01:24:23,040 --> 01:24:24,840
Speaker 4: And now they have Robin Leonard back in the fold.

1849
01:24:24,880 --> 01:24:27,639
Speaker 4: He's playing great in goal too, So there the Knights

1850
01:24:27,640 --> 01:24:31,839
Speaker 4: are very formidable opponent the Wild. They're very formidable opponent.

1851
01:24:32,040 --> 01:24:33,439
Speaker 4: It's going to come down to the price for me.

1852
01:24:33,880 --> 01:24:37,320
Speaker 4: But at at the moment, like yet, it's basically where

1853
01:24:37,360 --> 01:24:39,200
Speaker 4: where does this number open it and where does it go?

1854
01:24:39,320 --> 01:24:41,160
Speaker 4: Because I do think that the while they're going to

1855
01:24:41,240 --> 01:24:44,320
Speaker 4: catch some some like you know, smart money right this

1856
01:24:44,479 --> 01:24:45,360
Speaker 4: right as this price.

1857
01:24:45,160 --> 01:24:48,000
Speaker 1: Opens, well, it makes me feel better about it, even

1858
01:24:48,040 --> 01:24:50,160
Speaker 1: if I don't end up getting the price. You know,

1859
01:24:50,240 --> 01:24:53,040
Speaker 1: obviously that means, as we've talked about, right, possible value

1860
01:24:53,040 --> 01:24:55,919
Speaker 1: on a plus one and a half series price, possible

1861
01:24:56,000 --> 01:24:58,920
Speaker 1: value on an over five and a half games type thing, right,

1862
01:24:58,920 --> 01:25:01,919
Speaker 1: because again I think this thing could go the distance

1863
01:25:02,040 --> 01:25:04,920
Speaker 1: or come pretty close to it. So that's a wrap

1864
01:25:05,000 --> 01:25:08,400
Speaker 1: as far as our division stuff is concerned. And you know,

1865
01:25:08,479 --> 01:25:11,680
Speaker 1: I think that segues us here nicely to kind of

1866
01:25:11,680 --> 01:25:15,040
Speaker 1: full circle, get back to big picture stuff and the

1867
01:25:15,120 --> 01:25:19,040
Speaker 1: con smythe trophy market, and again, could talk about this forever.

1868
01:25:19,080 --> 01:25:21,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to dial it down. But Michael, let

1869
01:25:21,920 --> 01:25:23,960
Speaker 1: me ask you something here. Have you ever carried a

1870
01:25:24,000 --> 01:25:27,240
Speaker 1: man purse? You don't seem like a man perse guy?

1871
01:25:27,720 --> 01:25:29,519
Speaker 4: Maybe on the I don't. I've never owned one, but

1872
01:25:29,640 --> 01:25:32,680
Speaker 4: maybe I've carried one for for like a like a.

1873
01:25:32,760 --> 01:25:35,839
Speaker 1: Nice leather satchel. Maybe yeah, walking around?

1874
01:25:35,920 --> 01:25:37,439
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, maybe I don't know.

1875
01:25:37,560 --> 01:25:39,479
Speaker 1: So you know, if you don't have one, I suggest

1876
01:25:39,479 --> 01:25:41,240
Speaker 1: you get one, because we're gonna grab a bunch of

1877
01:25:41,280 --> 01:25:44,200
Speaker 1: players here, throw them in a portfolio, and we're gonna

1878
01:25:44,200 --> 01:25:47,720
Speaker 1: carry them around in our leather satchel for the playoffs.

1879
01:25:47,720 --> 01:25:48,880
Speaker 1: All right? You fired up for that.

1880
01:25:49,479 --> 01:25:51,599
Speaker 4: I don't think I could think of anything I would

1881
01:25:51,680 --> 01:25:52,040
Speaker 4: rather do.

1882
01:25:52,000 --> 01:25:55,599
Speaker 1: More so our cons my portfolio. Let's talk about sort

1883
01:25:55,600 --> 01:25:58,439
Speaker 1: of how we figure out who to back here. So

1884
01:25:58,520 --> 01:26:02,320
Speaker 1: a couple of important things. One, in general, quick stat here,

1885
01:26:02,600 --> 01:26:05,840
Speaker 1: the average age of a Consmith Trophy winner twenty seven

1886
01:26:05,960 --> 01:26:09,400
Speaker 1: point eight years of age. The outliers in that are

1887
01:26:09,520 --> 01:26:12,360
Speaker 1: guys like maybe you've heard of them, Patrick Kane, Jonathan

1888
01:26:12,439 --> 01:26:15,639
Speaker 1: Taves of Getty Malkin, right, guys who have won at

1889
01:26:15,640 --> 01:26:18,400
Speaker 1: a really young age as forward. So if we're looking

1890
01:26:18,439 --> 01:26:21,599
Speaker 1: for somebody who's really young, they need to be sort

1891
01:26:21,600 --> 01:26:24,519
Speaker 1: of Hall of Fame type level player. They need to

1892
01:26:24,600 --> 01:26:27,519
Speaker 1: be let's call it a top pick right first round,

1893
01:26:27,640 --> 01:26:30,080
Speaker 1: our first overall pick, a third overall pick, and a

1894
01:26:30,120 --> 01:26:32,240
Speaker 1: second overall pick and all of that. So you got

1895
01:26:32,240 --> 01:26:35,160
Speaker 1: to really, you know, dial in if you want somebody

1896
01:26:35,200 --> 01:26:37,240
Speaker 1: who's young, right, you got to be sure that this

1897
01:26:37,320 --> 01:26:41,240
Speaker 1: player is going to be great. Secondly, from an odd standpoint,

1898
01:26:41,280 --> 01:26:45,400
Speaker 1: strictly mathematically speaking, you know, we talk about Consume trophy,

1899
01:26:45,600 --> 01:26:48,040
Speaker 1: you're probably not gonna win it if your team doesn't

1900
01:26:48,040 --> 01:26:49,880
Speaker 1: win the Stanley Cup. So you have to start with

1901
01:26:50,040 --> 01:26:53,240
Speaker 1: Stanley Cupp futures odds and kind of go from there.

1902
01:26:53,600 --> 01:26:59,439
Speaker 1: And then third positions right, forwards, defense, goaltenders. We've got

1903
01:26:59,439 --> 01:27:02,240
Speaker 1: a nice red number to work with. The last fifty

1904
01:27:02,560 --> 01:27:06,720
Speaker 1: Consmythe Trophy winners, right, thirteen have been goaltenders, eleven have

1905
01:27:06,800 --> 01:27:11,240
Speaker 1: been defense, and twenty six have been forwards. So right there,

1906
01:27:11,280 --> 01:27:13,280
Speaker 1: if you just took a random team, you didn't know

1907
01:27:13,280 --> 01:27:15,640
Speaker 1: who was on the team, necessarily you would go the

1908
01:27:15,640 --> 01:27:18,800
Speaker 1: goalies got a twenty six percent chance, a defenseman has

1909
01:27:18,800 --> 01:27:21,240
Speaker 1: a twenty two percent chance, and a forward has a

1910
01:27:21,280 --> 01:27:23,200
Speaker 1: fifty five percent chance. So you can get in. You

1911
01:27:23,240 --> 01:27:25,439
Speaker 1: can get weird with the math, right, you can start

1912
01:27:25,560 --> 01:27:30,320
Speaker 1: multiplying player percentages to the team's chance to win the

1913
01:27:30,320 --> 01:27:33,000
Speaker 1: Stanley Cup. Problem is in these markets you're never going

1914
01:27:33,080 --> 01:27:35,479
Speaker 1: to find the true value, and of course you also

1915
01:27:35,520 --> 01:27:39,080
Speaker 1: have to tweak things when it comes to different player personnel.

1916
01:27:39,120 --> 01:27:41,519
Speaker 1: There are players and teams that if they win. We

1917
01:27:41,560 --> 01:27:44,559
Speaker 1: talked about with the Islanders, right Varlamov, he's going to

1918
01:27:44,600 --> 01:27:47,000
Speaker 1: win the con smythe if they win the Stanley Cup.

1919
01:27:47,000 --> 01:27:50,040
Speaker 1: The hard part is the Stanley Cup. The easy part

1920
01:27:50,080 --> 01:27:52,640
Speaker 1: is figuring out who their MVP is going to be,

1921
01:27:52,840 --> 01:27:56,240
Speaker 1: right Like, there are teams that exist like that. So

1922
01:27:57,040 --> 01:27:58,840
Speaker 1: I'll start here because I have a couple that I

1923
01:27:58,840 --> 01:28:00,800
Speaker 1: want to sort of throw out there earlier. And this

1924
01:28:00,880 --> 01:28:04,960
Speaker 1: is finally what I alluded to early on here. I

1925
01:28:05,040 --> 01:28:07,880
Speaker 1: want to start with my guy here, with everybody's guy,

1926
01:28:08,320 --> 01:28:12,280
Speaker 1: Connor McDavid. And so, yeah, you might not like them

1927
01:28:12,320 --> 01:28:15,440
Speaker 1: to make the first round, but in this market, the

1928
01:28:15,520 --> 01:28:19,000
Speaker 1: assumption already has to be that they've won the Stanley Cup,

1929
01:28:19,040 --> 01:28:22,280
Speaker 1: because it doesn't really matter if they don't, right And

1930
01:28:22,320 --> 01:28:25,280
Speaker 1: so right now, you can get the Oilers at nineteen

1931
01:28:25,479 --> 01:28:28,400
Speaker 1: twenty to one to win the Stanley Cup, or you

1932
01:28:28,400 --> 01:28:31,360
Speaker 1: can get McDavid at twenty four to twenty five to

1933
01:28:31,400 --> 01:28:34,439
Speaker 1: win the Stanley Cup. Michael, there's no way in hell

1934
01:28:34,920 --> 01:28:37,920
Speaker 1: that the Oilers are winning the Stanley Cup without Connor

1935
01:28:38,000 --> 01:28:41,320
Speaker 1: McDavid being the most valuable player. By the way, for

1936
01:28:41,439 --> 01:28:44,200
Speaker 1: the entire playoffs. This isn't the Super Bowl where a

1937
01:28:44,240 --> 01:28:46,439
Speaker 1: guy has two interceptions and all of a sudden he

1938
01:28:46,560 --> 01:28:51,000
Speaker 1: steals the MVP. This is for the entire playoffs. Right now,

1939
01:28:51,080 --> 01:28:54,320
Speaker 1: let me add this to it, Michael, who is the

1940
01:28:54,360 --> 01:28:57,760
Speaker 1: one human being on the planet who could win this

1941
01:28:57,880 --> 01:29:04,160
Speaker 1: award without the Stanley Cup. It's Connor McDavid.

1942
01:29:04,200 --> 01:29:06,000
Speaker 4: I was gonna say, I was wondering if you're gonna

1943
01:29:06,000 --> 01:29:07,439
Speaker 4: bring that up, because I could, you know, with the

1944
01:29:07,479 --> 01:29:10,600
Speaker 4: way he's his prolific numbers. He you know, we saw it.

1945
01:29:10,880 --> 01:29:12,519
Speaker 4: I think what's j S. Shagere is the only guy

1946
01:29:12,520 --> 01:29:14,280
Speaker 4: who's ever wonted without being on the winning team. But

1947
01:29:14,320 --> 01:29:16,719
Speaker 4: he made it to the Stanley Cup. Like Connor McDavid.

1948
01:29:16,760 --> 01:29:19,160
Speaker 4: This is extremely unlikely, but could just go on such

1949
01:29:19,160 --> 01:29:23,080
Speaker 4: a tear and make it to like, you know, the

1950
01:29:23,080 --> 01:29:26,280
Speaker 4: semi finals and still lead the playoffs in scoring. He

1951
01:29:26,280 --> 01:29:28,400
Speaker 4: won't win the Cup smife if that happens, obviously, But.

1952
01:29:28,360 --> 01:29:30,800
Speaker 1: If he gets into the Stanley Cup final, Listen, we'll

1953
01:29:30,800 --> 01:29:35,840
Speaker 1: have just spent six weeks going holy crap, Connor McDavid's amazing, right,

1954
01:29:35,880 --> 01:29:38,320
Speaker 1: we'll have spent all that time doing that. He's probably

1955
01:29:38,439 --> 01:29:41,080
Speaker 1: will have played going into it, right, say average six

1956
01:29:41,160 --> 01:29:44,120
Speaker 1: games for three series, that's eighteen games, maybe five they

1957
01:29:44,160 --> 01:29:47,280
Speaker 1: lose in five games, that's twenty three games for McDavid.

1958
01:29:47,360 --> 01:29:49,120
Speaker 1: Let's do some quick math there. There's a very real

1959
01:29:49,120 --> 01:29:51,960
Speaker 1: possibility he ends up with forty points, right, and they

1960
01:29:51,960 --> 01:29:54,920
Speaker 1: could lose to Colorado, they could lose to Carolina, they

1961
01:29:54,920 --> 01:29:57,000
Speaker 1: could lose two team that has a lot of depth,

1962
01:29:57,080 --> 01:29:59,960
Speaker 1: a lot of different guys contributing, a defenseman that's really good,

1963
01:30:00,080 --> 01:30:02,840
Speaker 1: a goaltender that's played pretty well. Right, and we're sitting

1964
01:30:02,880 --> 01:30:05,439
Speaker 1: there going, like Connord, David had fifty more points than

1965
01:30:05,479 --> 01:30:08,719
Speaker 1: the next closest guy. I don't care that he'd lost

1966
01:30:08,880 --> 01:30:11,599
Speaker 1: in the Stanley Cup final. So that's adding some value.

1967
01:30:11,640 --> 01:30:14,599
Speaker 1: So already we've got that value with him because he's

1968
01:30:14,640 --> 01:30:18,240
Speaker 1: a better price than his team, which of course everybody is,

1969
01:30:18,280 --> 01:30:20,559
Speaker 1: but he's the only one who is a one hundred

1970
01:30:20,600 --> 01:30:24,439
Speaker 1: percent chance to win the consmithe if his team wins,

1971
01:30:24,840 --> 01:30:27,800
Speaker 1: and you get whatever probability that might be, right, an

1972
01:30:27,840 --> 01:30:31,880
Speaker 1: extra five percent probability, an extra two percent probability. You're

1973
01:30:31,880 --> 01:30:34,519
Speaker 1: getting a little extra there knowing that this guy could

1974
01:30:34,560 --> 01:30:39,040
Speaker 1: have forty five points in the playoffs, right, And so again,

1975
01:30:39,080 --> 01:30:41,080
Speaker 1: you don't have to like the Oilers. I would never

1976
01:30:41,200 --> 01:30:43,360
Speaker 1: bet the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup. I don't

1977
01:30:43,360 --> 01:30:45,240
Speaker 1: even want them to win, you know, I don't even

1978
01:30:45,479 --> 01:30:48,519
Speaker 1: want them. From a betting standpoint. In the first round

1979
01:30:48,560 --> 01:30:51,679
Speaker 1: of the playoffs. But from a strictly value standpoint, here

1980
01:30:51,760 --> 01:30:54,200
Speaker 1: we're getting the best player in the world, maybe of

1981
01:30:54,240 --> 01:30:59,040
Speaker 1: all time here at an actually theoretical mathematical value here,

1982
01:30:59,320 --> 01:31:01,240
Speaker 1: and I think I just have to get that get

1983
01:31:01,280 --> 01:31:03,880
Speaker 1: down on that at around twenty five to one, anything

1984
01:31:04,000 --> 01:31:07,360
Speaker 1: better than their oilers, you know, overall Stanley Cup price here,

1985
01:31:07,479 --> 01:31:10,240
Speaker 1: I think is really good value. So maybe you think

1986
01:31:10,240 --> 01:31:13,439
Speaker 1: I'm crazy. Maybe you've got an even better value out there.

1987
01:31:13,920 --> 01:31:15,800
Speaker 1: Who do you like to win the con smite sort

1988
01:31:15,840 --> 01:31:18,439
Speaker 1: as your best bet theoretically.

1989
01:31:17,800 --> 01:31:19,640
Speaker 4: See this, This is why I love betting these kind

1990
01:31:19,680 --> 01:31:22,240
Speaker 4: of markets, right the con smythe MVP markets is because

1991
01:31:22,240 --> 01:31:24,200
Speaker 4: there's such a you can it's much more art than

1992
01:31:24,240 --> 01:31:27,479
Speaker 4: it is science. And I think that's what you know.

1993
01:31:27,520 --> 01:31:29,760
Speaker 4: The case is with with that McDavid play which and

1994
01:31:29,840 --> 01:31:31,640
Speaker 4: I agree with it, like I think it's if you're

1995
01:31:31,680 --> 01:31:33,360
Speaker 4: going to bet the oilers to win the Stanley Cup,

1996
01:31:33,840 --> 01:31:35,800
Speaker 4: just do yourself a favorite bet McDavid to win the

1997
01:31:35,840 --> 01:31:37,719
Speaker 4: con smythe I think it's a it's a really really

1998
01:31:37,720 --> 01:31:40,559
Speaker 4: good way to look at it. I have I have

1999
01:31:40,600 --> 01:31:42,599
Speaker 4: a couple guys, one of them you just name dropped,

2000
01:31:43,400 --> 01:31:46,120
Speaker 4: Simeon Varlamov. I think he's thirty two to one. The

2001
01:31:46,160 --> 01:31:48,439
Speaker 4: Islanders are twenty to one to win the Stanley Cup. Yeah,

2002
01:31:48,439 --> 01:31:50,519
Speaker 4: there's a chance that maybe Matt Barzel or you know,

2003
01:31:51,200 --> 01:31:53,960
Speaker 4: maybe you know, Jordan Everley gets real hot. The Islanders

2004
01:31:54,000 --> 01:31:56,080
Speaker 4: have some streaky scorers who could steal a show. But

2005
01:31:56,200 --> 01:31:58,080
Speaker 4: if this is a team that is known for its

2006
01:31:58,120 --> 01:32:01,519
Speaker 4: defense and its goaltending, if they get through and win

2007
01:32:01,520 --> 01:32:05,559
Speaker 4: a Stanley Cup Simeon Varlamov, it would mean Simeon Varlamov

2008
01:32:05,640 --> 01:32:07,920
Speaker 4: would have to play at a very high level. So

2009
01:32:08,040 --> 01:32:09,680
Speaker 4: I think thirty two to one he's at right now

2010
01:32:09,680 --> 01:32:13,280
Speaker 4: at DraftKings is a good price, especially if you like us.

2011
01:32:13,320 --> 01:32:16,439
Speaker 4: You're bullish on the Islanders and this is gonna maybe

2012
01:32:16,439 --> 01:32:19,080
Speaker 4: maybe you know, drive you up a wall. But I

2013
01:32:19,120 --> 01:32:21,080
Speaker 4: think the same thing could be said about Connor Hella Buck.

2014
01:32:21,120 --> 01:32:24,680
Speaker 4: He's forty five. So the Jets. You talk about a

2015
01:32:24,680 --> 01:32:26,960
Speaker 4: guy who's one hundred percent certain to win the con

2016
01:32:27,000 --> 01:32:30,000
Speaker 4: Smife if they win the Stanley Cup. Connor Helli Buck

2017
01:32:30,120 --> 01:32:32,519
Speaker 4: is the Winnipeg Jets. If the Winnipeg Jets make it

2018
01:32:32,560 --> 01:32:35,080
Speaker 4: to the Stanley Cup and win the Stanley Cup, it's

2019
01:32:35,080 --> 01:32:37,120
Speaker 4: because of Connor Helli Buck. He's at forty five to one,

2020
01:32:37,120 --> 01:32:40,439
Speaker 4: that's a little bit higher than their actual Stanley Cup price.

2021
01:32:40,520 --> 01:32:42,840
Speaker 4: And if I had to choose, like someone who who

2022
01:32:43,040 --> 01:32:46,320
Speaker 4: who could win kind of towards the top, just like

2023
01:32:46,560 --> 01:32:50,559
Speaker 4: on quote unquote like more elite real teams. I like

2024
01:32:50,600 --> 01:32:54,560
Speaker 4: Miko Randon and on the Colorado Avalanche Stanley Cup favorite.

2025
01:32:54,720 --> 01:32:59,880
Speaker 4: But while Nathan McKinnon is the the favorite, he's at

2026
01:32:59,880 --> 01:33:02,479
Speaker 4: the top of Lisa for the konn smike Miko Ranton

2027
01:33:02,479 --> 01:33:04,960
Speaker 4: and ride shotgun with him. So if Nathan McKinnon is

2028
01:33:04,960 --> 01:33:07,920
Speaker 4: having a great Stanley Cup playoffs, that means Miko Ranton

2029
01:33:08,000 --> 01:33:10,800
Speaker 4: is probably pouring in goals because he's his wing man.

2030
01:33:11,439 --> 01:33:13,519
Speaker 4: So I like him. At twenty to one, you can

2031
01:33:13,560 --> 01:33:15,280
Speaker 4: even make a case for I think Cal mccarr too.

2032
01:33:15,560 --> 01:33:17,800
Speaker 4: He's all the rage. I know people love it at

2033
01:33:17,800 --> 01:33:20,880
Speaker 4: thirty one, and I think that'll probably be at one

2034
01:33:20,880 --> 01:33:23,280
Speaker 4: of those guys with barlamb Off hellabuck. But I can

2035
01:33:23,360 --> 01:33:25,240
Speaker 4: also maybe see and this is maybe a little bit

2036
01:33:25,240 --> 01:33:27,400
Speaker 4: of a hedge. Look, if the Pittsburgh Penguins make the

2037
01:33:27,400 --> 01:33:29,760
Speaker 4: Stanley Cup, like you got to remember who's voting for

2038
01:33:29,760 --> 01:33:33,360
Speaker 4: these awards, human beings. Sidney Crosby could have one goal

2039
01:33:33,400 --> 01:33:35,439
Speaker 4: and six assists and the Penguins win the Stanley Cup,

2040
01:33:35,439 --> 01:33:36,960
Speaker 4: and guess what they're gonna want to They're gonna want

2041
01:33:36,960 --> 01:33:39,680
Speaker 4: to vote Sidney Crosby. Con smit, he's twenty five to one.

2042
01:33:40,000 --> 01:33:41,080
Speaker 4: Kind of interesting too.

2043
01:33:42,000 --> 01:33:44,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then this whole concept might as well just

2044
01:33:44,439 --> 01:33:46,920
Speaker 1: be called the Sidney Crosby rule, right, because a couple

2045
01:33:46,920 --> 01:33:49,320
Speaker 1: of years ago he didn't have the best playoff. But

2046
01:33:49,360 --> 01:33:52,320
Speaker 1: they're like, yeah, Connor, hasn't anybody else, right, And again,

2047
01:33:52,479 --> 01:33:55,120
Speaker 1: if sat Connor McDavid was on the San Jose Sharks

2048
01:33:55,200 --> 01:33:57,600
Speaker 1: that year, right, they probably would have just said, you

2049
01:33:57,640 --> 01:33:59,240
Speaker 1: know what, let's just give it to Conor McDavid. And

2050
01:33:59,240 --> 01:34:01,679
Speaker 1: I think you're right. Like, I cannot like the Jets

2051
01:34:03,240 --> 01:34:05,479
Speaker 1: for the reasons that I mentioned, but I can still

2052
01:34:05,760 --> 01:34:07,880
Speaker 1: like that bet because I think you're right, right, if

2053
01:34:07,920 --> 01:34:09,680
Speaker 1: the Jets win the Stanley Cup. Now, all of this

2054
01:34:09,720 --> 01:34:13,439
Speaker 1: stuff is under the sort of auspice of the team

2055
01:34:13,479 --> 01:34:15,680
Speaker 1: needs to win the Stanley Cup, right, So like it

2056
01:34:15,760 --> 01:34:17,880
Speaker 1: kind of doesn't matter if they don't, with the exception

2057
01:34:17,920 --> 01:34:20,240
Speaker 1: of McDavid, but like, yeah, if they wake the Stanley,

2058
01:34:20,320 --> 01:34:22,720
Speaker 1: if they make the Stanley CuPy he has a chance.

2059
01:34:22,760 --> 01:34:24,640
Speaker 1: But if they certainly win the Stanley Cup, it's one

2060
01:34:24,720 --> 01:34:27,200
Speaker 1: hundred percent chance that he's going to win. So when

2061
01:34:27,200 --> 01:34:29,839
Speaker 1: we're looking at value, if it's better than his team's

2062
01:34:29,920 --> 01:34:32,680
Speaker 1: price to win the Stanley Cup, and considerably so in

2063
01:34:32,720 --> 01:34:35,599
Speaker 1: this case, Like, yeah, I'm fine with that bet. And honestly,

2064
01:34:35,640 --> 01:34:37,759
Speaker 1: if you are looking to fade the Toronto Maple Leafs

2065
01:34:37,920 --> 01:34:41,000
Speaker 1: in a weird way, just throwing McDavid and hellibuck in

2066
01:34:41,040 --> 01:34:45,200
Speaker 1: a con smythe portfolio where we're walking around with our satchel, Like,

2067
01:34:45,280 --> 01:34:48,160
Speaker 1: that's actually a pretty good move, right because you're going, Okay,

2068
01:34:48,240 --> 01:34:50,360
Speaker 1: if I don't think that the Leafs are getting through

2069
01:34:50,400 --> 01:34:53,479
Speaker 1: to the semifinals, that means I'm definitely going to have

2070
01:34:53,760 --> 01:34:58,559
Speaker 1: either hellibuck or McDavid into the semifinals, right, Like, that's

2071
01:34:58,640 --> 01:35:01,280
Speaker 1: kind of a big deal. A couple more names here,

2072
01:35:01,640 --> 01:35:04,280
Speaker 1: one that I like, sort of next best that has

2073
01:35:04,360 --> 01:35:08,240
Speaker 1: more of a likelihood, let's just say of happening. Right.

2074
01:35:08,280 --> 01:35:10,880
Speaker 1: We talked about the Carolina Hurricanes, talked about them before,

2075
01:35:11,120 --> 01:35:14,080
Speaker 1: really short price for the Stanley Cup. Tons of different

2076
01:35:14,080 --> 01:35:16,760
Speaker 1: things going on with that team. From a forward standpoint,

2077
01:35:16,760 --> 01:35:19,719
Speaker 1: they are loaded and they're going to have a bunch

2078
01:35:19,760 --> 01:35:22,559
Speaker 1: of different guys. Score again, if they win the Stanley Cup.

2079
01:35:22,640 --> 01:35:24,080
Speaker 1: So I don't know that there's going to be a

2080
01:35:24,160 --> 01:35:27,040
Speaker 1: runaway like Sebastian Ajo has thirty points. I think that's

2081
01:35:27,080 --> 01:35:28,439
Speaker 1: going to be the case. The other thing is, I

2082
01:35:28,439 --> 01:35:30,240
Speaker 1: think they like both of their goaltenders. I think we

2083
01:35:30,280 --> 01:35:33,200
Speaker 1: have a situation there where like they split games, there's

2084
01:35:33,240 --> 01:35:36,000
Speaker 1: gonna be some back to backs in there possibility, you know, possibly.

2085
01:35:36,240 --> 01:35:39,519
Speaker 1: I think they'll play some higher scoring games, especially as

2086
01:35:39,560 --> 01:35:44,040
Speaker 1: we get later on. And that leaves Dougie Hamilton as

2087
01:35:44,240 --> 01:35:47,479
Speaker 1: a guy that could take that next step. Right, this

2088
01:35:47,600 --> 01:35:50,400
Speaker 1: is a guy who led defensemen in shots on goal

2089
01:35:50,479 --> 01:35:53,840
Speaker 1: this season sixteen power play assists, didn't have as many

2090
01:35:53,880 --> 01:35:57,280
Speaker 1: power play goals because he only converted five point six

2091
01:35:57,320 --> 01:36:00,280
Speaker 1: percent of his shots. That leaves some room for him

2092
01:36:00,360 --> 01:36:02,559
Speaker 1: for a bit of a statistical regression here, for him

2093
01:36:02,600 --> 01:36:04,639
Speaker 1: to score maybe a little bit more, maybe a couple

2094
01:36:04,720 --> 01:36:07,800
Speaker 1: of those happening like overtime or something along those lines. Right,

2095
01:36:08,080 --> 01:36:11,320
Speaker 1: So he's available at twenty five to one, and so

2096
01:36:11,479 --> 01:36:13,799
Speaker 1: I think he's the best way to attack the Carolina

2097
01:36:13,880 --> 01:36:16,719
Speaker 1: Hurricanes this year instead of you know, the six seven

2098
01:36:16,760 --> 01:36:18,680
Speaker 1: to one to win the Stanley Cup. Let's take a

2099
01:36:18,680 --> 01:36:20,680
Speaker 1: little bit of a flyer there because I think he

2100
01:36:20,760 --> 01:36:23,960
Speaker 1: becomes I don't want to say the victor headman necessarily

2101
01:36:24,000 --> 01:36:26,759
Speaker 1: of the team, but like kind of right, like he's

2102
01:36:26,880 --> 01:36:30,120
Speaker 1: going to be the guy for them defensively, that when

2103
01:36:30,200 --> 01:36:33,120
Speaker 1: you have multiple goaltenders, when you have a truckload of

2104
01:36:33,120 --> 01:36:35,000
Speaker 1: scorers that are going to spread it out a little bit,

2105
01:36:35,240 --> 01:36:37,120
Speaker 1: he's going to be the guy here. I think that's

2106
01:36:37,160 --> 01:36:39,920
Speaker 1: going to produce offensively and going to be a problem

2107
01:36:39,960 --> 01:36:44,000
Speaker 1: for teams defensively as well. So I like that in

2108
01:36:44,160 --> 01:36:48,320
Speaker 1: attacking the Kanes you mentioned mccarr, I think he's good

2109
01:36:48,400 --> 01:36:50,400
Speaker 1: value from Again, this is a team that has a

2110
01:36:50,400 --> 01:36:52,679
Speaker 1: goaltender who could win it, they have forwards who could

2111
01:36:52,680 --> 01:36:55,720
Speaker 1: win it. They're kind of the purest example of the

2112
01:36:56,040 --> 01:37:01,120
Speaker 1: you know, twenty two percent defense chance, the six percent

2113
01:37:01,160 --> 01:37:03,920
Speaker 1: goaltending chance, and the fifty five Like they're kind of

2114
01:37:03,960 --> 01:37:06,400
Speaker 1: perfect for that because like you would separate that. So

2115
01:37:06,520 --> 01:37:10,800
Speaker 1: Ranton is good six point nine I think on his

2116
01:37:11,880 --> 01:37:15,680
Speaker 1: point share this season actually higher than McKinnon. Right, So

2117
01:37:15,760 --> 01:37:18,240
Speaker 1: again a guy who is contributing, you know, in a

2118
01:37:18,240 --> 01:37:20,200
Speaker 1: sort of a weird way a little bit more. I

2119
01:37:20,200 --> 01:37:22,920
Speaker 1: don't know if voters would necessarily recognize that, but again

2120
01:37:22,960 --> 01:37:25,559
Speaker 1: instead of eight to one on McKinnon, you're getting something

2121
01:37:25,600 --> 01:37:28,400
Speaker 1: closer to thirty to one with Ranton and not bad

2122
01:37:28,479 --> 01:37:30,160
Speaker 1: there for again, a team that I think can go

2123
01:37:30,240 --> 01:37:33,440
Speaker 1: a long way, and that might not be necessarily goaltender

2124
01:37:33,520 --> 01:37:37,400
Speaker 1: focused of course, right, you know, beyond that, obviously some

2125
01:37:37,479 --> 01:37:40,240
Speaker 1: Boston Bruins here, Taylor Hall. I haven't seen a market

2126
01:37:40,360 --> 01:37:43,240
Speaker 1: DraftKings right now has almost everybody that you'd want. Haven't

2127
01:37:43,280 --> 01:37:46,240
Speaker 1: seen Taylor Hall's number there. That'll be interesting. A lot

2128
01:37:46,240 --> 01:37:49,000
Speaker 1: of their guys are thirty to one at this rate, right,

2129
01:37:49,080 --> 01:37:51,200
Speaker 1: Why Taylor Hall thirty to one? If that ends up

2130
01:37:51,240 --> 01:37:53,360
Speaker 1: being the number, why wouldn't you take that? So there's

2131
01:37:53,400 --> 01:37:55,680
Speaker 1: plenty of different options. There's plenty of different ways to

2132
01:37:55,680 --> 01:37:57,120
Speaker 1: play a lot of these teams, and even if you

2133
01:37:57,160 --> 01:37:59,840
Speaker 1: don't have them advancing in the first round because of

2134
01:37:59,880 --> 01:38:02,680
Speaker 1: the number and the low investment that's needed, there's a

2135
01:38:02,720 --> 01:38:05,400
Speaker 1: bunch of different ways that you can play these guys.

2136
01:38:07,479 --> 01:38:10,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think there's one other name real quick that

2137
01:38:10,160 --> 01:38:12,599
Speaker 4: you mentioned that's not on the board yet. Charlie McAvoy

2138
01:38:12,640 --> 01:38:14,320
Speaker 4: on the Bruins too. It's like he's in that same

2139
01:38:14,360 --> 01:38:17,040
Speaker 4: Dougie Hamilton like all action number one defenseman going to

2140
01:38:17,040 --> 01:38:20,200
Speaker 4: play thirty minutes a night, and there is nothing that

2141
01:38:21,560 --> 01:38:25,400
Speaker 4: play by play commentators and color analysts in the NHL

2142
01:38:25,479 --> 01:38:27,760
Speaker 4: like to talk about more than this guy played twenty

2143
01:38:27,760 --> 01:38:30,080
Speaker 4: eight minutes a night last night. You know, in the

2144
01:38:30,160 --> 01:38:32,160
Speaker 4: series he played thirty five minutes last night. They love

2145
01:38:32,240 --> 01:38:34,479
Speaker 4: talking about that stuff, and that will affect voting. But

2146
01:38:34,760 --> 01:38:37,880
Speaker 4: I mean, that's a nice portfolio. We guys, very very

2147
01:38:38,400 --> 01:38:41,080
Speaker 4: very beefy, a nice beefy portfolio.

2148
01:38:40,800 --> 01:38:43,919
Speaker 1: That's right. And if Charlie or Dougie can win the Consmith,

2149
01:38:44,040 --> 01:38:45,760
Speaker 1: maybe they can take the ease off the end of

2150
01:38:45,760 --> 01:38:47,880
Speaker 1: their name and they can be adults and Douglas and

2151
01:38:48,000 --> 01:38:51,960
Speaker 1: Charles can move on. All right, I think we've covered it. Man.

2152
01:38:52,080 --> 01:38:55,200
Speaker 1: That'll do it for our Stanley Cup playoffs betting preview. Michael,

2153
01:38:55,240 --> 01:38:57,719
Speaker 1: tell the people to where they can get our stuff

2154
01:38:57,920 --> 01:38:58,920
Speaker 1: for the playoffs.

2155
01:38:59,160 --> 01:39:01,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean you should be glued to the Action

2156
01:39:01,200 --> 01:39:04,439
Speaker 4: Network's NHL coverage. We'll have coverage for every game. Game

2157
01:39:04,520 --> 01:39:08,439
Speaker 4: previews will have more stuff on cons my future markets.

2158
01:39:08,439 --> 01:39:11,280
Speaker 4: And then we have a really good, good crew who

2159
01:39:11,439 --> 01:39:13,680
Speaker 4: people who think about the game a little differently from

2160
01:39:13,680 --> 01:39:15,600
Speaker 4: one another, but we all have a kind of a

2161
01:39:15,640 --> 01:39:18,879
Speaker 4: similar overlap, so it's a good synergy among the writers

2162
01:39:18,880 --> 01:39:20,639
Speaker 4: we have and like I said, we'll have every game covered.

2163
01:39:20,680 --> 01:39:23,439
Speaker 4: So whether you're new to hockey or if you have

2164
01:39:23,479 --> 01:39:26,200
Speaker 4: been watching every every day and just want a different

2165
01:39:26,520 --> 01:39:27,960
Speaker 4: kind of set of eyes and a different way to

2166
01:39:27,960 --> 01:39:30,720
Speaker 4: think about the game, we're here for you. We understand

2167
01:39:30,800 --> 01:39:32,600
Speaker 4: what this is all about. We understand the ups and

2168
01:39:32,640 --> 01:39:35,200
Speaker 4: downs and the swings and the hide behind your sofa

2169
01:39:35,320 --> 01:39:38,240
Speaker 4: kind of nature of hockey. So we're along the ride

2170
01:39:38,240 --> 01:39:41,120
Speaker 4: with you because, like the heart pounding action of the

2171
01:39:41,200 --> 01:39:43,639
Speaker 4: NHL playoffs is like nothing else, and frankly, you shouldn't

2172
01:39:43,680 --> 01:39:44,639
Speaker 4: be going through it alone.

2173
01:39:45,160 --> 01:39:48,400
Speaker 1: Absolutely. He's at the Big Leabofski on Twitter, leap off

2174
01:39:48,800 --> 01:39:51,800
Speaker 1: m on the Action Network app. As for me, I'm

2175
01:39:51,880 --> 01:39:54,719
Speaker 1: at m Ross Authentic on Twitter and the Action App.

2176
01:39:54,960 --> 01:39:57,080
Speaker 1: You can live and learn with all the hockey betting

2177
01:39:57,080 --> 01:39:59,799
Speaker 1: as well as NBA, PGA, NFL and college Who's Betting

2178
01:39:59,800 --> 01:40:03,679
Speaker 1: on my podcast, The Window Sports Betting Podcast available wherever

2179
01:40:03,760 --> 01:40:06,639
Speaker 1: you got this podcast. This was a blast, Roomy Man.

2180
01:40:06,680 --> 01:40:09,559
Speaker 1: Thanks to Michael and to Renee and the band of

2181
01:40:09,640 --> 01:40:11,760
Speaker 1: renown behind the scenes of the Action Network. As a

2182
01:40:11,760 --> 01:40:14,400
Speaker 1: reminder of the Action Network's NBA team returns next week

2183
01:40:14,439 --> 01:40:18,360
Speaker 1: for a two part NBA Playoffs betting preview podcast. Plus

2184
01:40:18,360 --> 01:40:21,559
Speaker 1: we'll have PGA coverage maybe some French open stuff, so

2185
01:40:21,600 --> 01:40:24,880
Speaker 1: stay tuned. Also check out the Favorites podcast with Chad

2186
01:40:24,920 --> 01:40:29,439
Speaker 1: Millman that's on the Volume podcast Network, along with today's guest,

2187
01:40:29,560 --> 01:40:34,080
Speaker 1: Renee Paquette and her podcast Oral Sessions. Thanks to bet MGM,

2188
01:40:34,120 --> 01:40:36,320
Speaker 1: the official odds provider of the show, and thank you

2189
01:40:36,400 --> 01:40:39,919
Speaker 1: for listening. Please rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts,

2190
01:40:39,920 --> 01:40:43,519
Speaker 1: download and listen on Spotify, and until next time, we'll

2191
01:40:43,560 --> 01:40:49,400
Speaker 1: see you on the Action Network podcast. There were to

2192
01:40:49,600 --> 01:40:53,479
Speaker 1: the Lift of Russians to the right, a check at

2193
01:40:53,560 --> 01:40:57,639
Speaker 1: then looking forward by take care of.

2194
01:40:57,439 --> 01:41:03,200
Speaker 3: Your team, bet Night work for you? What sucking Eady

2195
01:41:03,360 --> 01:41:06,960
Speaker 3: and fine Boy to do somebody else? Can a farm

2196
01:41:07,080 --> 01:41:12,200
Speaker 3: boy from Canada ex somebody so Canady and fine Boy

2197
01:41:12,320 --> 01:41:16,640
Speaker 3: to somebody else? Can a farm boy from Canada and

2198
01:41:16,920 --> 01:41:22,080
Speaker 3: somebody as Canady and fine boy X? I ask can

2199
01:41:22,080 --> 01:41:25,040
Speaker 3: of fine boy from the Canada.

2200
01:41:33,280 --> 01:41:34,320
Speaker 4: We're finished talking