WEBVTT - Trump Tariffs and the Impact on Markets 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:13.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:17.920 Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:22.000 on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:25.680 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:26.880 us live on YouTube. 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:28.760 Peter Ford, yourself and. 0:00:28.800 --> 0:00:31.480 David Gura with us as well. 0:00:31.520 --> 0:00:34.200 Tina, I want to focus on Ukraine and I want 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:36.800 to go back to nineteen eighty two, the Falklands War, 0:00:37.200 --> 0:00:40.000 where I learned how to spell exo set. I remember 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:45.800 the technological shock that a missile could take out not one, 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:50.040 but two, but three British ships. That was stunning. Now 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:53.680 we have the same thing. How will your world change 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:58.720 with drones that could kill take out armament from a distance. 0:01:01.280 --> 0:01:06.520 Ukraine launched an incredibly bold and audacious attack eighteen months 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:10.959 in the making. You've talked about the idea that this 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:15.319 could signal a change in trend, and others have written 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:19.360 about China being able to do the same thing. But 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:22.520 when we look at the markets, guys, right, we don't 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:26.520 see a very big reaction at all. I think just 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:30.280 because of the amount of newsflow. So it's an example 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:34.880 of something that is potentially, you know, a pivotal moment 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:39.920 in geopolitics, certainly one that means that in the short 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:45.319 term there isn't going to be sanctions relief likely anytime soon, 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:49.440 or a ceasefire. But there's so much going on for 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:54.840 investors to digest that it's not moving the needle as. 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:55.880 We sift through that news flow. 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:57.840 Let me ask you about something that's complimentary. We have 0:01:57.880 --> 0:02:00.680 this presidential election in Poland over the weekend, and the 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:02.960 nationalist candidate won that election, which is just going to 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:05.480 I think provide further headaches for Donald Tuk, the Prime 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:09.040 minister of that country. But we have there a president 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:12.480 elect who is you could say anti Europe or not 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:15.359 not pro Europe. We could say that, and what does 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:19.960 that mean just for that country's attitude toward continued involvement 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:22.280 in the war in Ukraine and in Europe's involvement more broadly. 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:23.800 The outcome of that election in Poland. 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:29.040 But the Polish presidential election isn't the kind of thing 0:02:29.080 --> 0:02:31.840 that you know, we would normally be talking about in 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:35.120 a program like this, But because we are looking at 0:02:35.320 --> 0:02:41.440 Europe that feels increasingly isolated following the US security and 0:02:41.560 --> 0:02:47.080 economic reset, who is in charge in Poland has a 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:50.400 great deal to do with what kinds of decisions the 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:54.960 European Union can take when it comes to security and 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:58.480 when it comes again back to Ukraine. So even though 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:02.320 markets we'd like to put the Ukraine conflict behind them, 0:03:02.760 --> 0:03:07.000 in this new global context, which we've talked about in 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:13.280 our new research on the geopolitics supercycle, a small, a 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:18.280 small kind of domestic vote like a Polish presidential election 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:22.960 can actually have a big ripple effect in a changed 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:24.840 security and economic environment. 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:27.639 Tina, you mentioned that supercycle. So that's a circumstance in 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:32.240 which geopolitical risks are accelerating and accelerating quickly. 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:34.080 Talk about that in. 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:38.880 The context of negotiation and dialogue and diplomacy. On any 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:40.880 given day, I get a statement from the State Department 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:44.200 or from a European government indicating that talks are continuing 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:46.480 when it comes to Ukraine, or it comes to trade 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:49.800 negotiations or tariff the tariffs and the trade war. Your 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:52.560 sense of sort of the role that diplomacy is playing 0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:54.680 in that supercycle. 0:03:55.640 --> 0:03:59.320 Well, the geopolitics supercycle is my term, and it's the 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:02.800 name of a new report that we've published I borrowed 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:06.600 from astronomy the idea of an acceleration, and what we 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:09.160 established in the first place before we get to the 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:12.400 present day is that this isn't in fact new. We've 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:17.800 seen a tripling of geopolitical risk events materializing over the 0:04:17.839 --> 0:04:21.280 past fifteen years. We established the evidence base for that, 0:04:22.080 --> 0:04:25.440 and in our framework we look at the drivers of 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:29.400 geopolitical risk against the guard rails. And whether we're talking 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:35.880 about diplomacy, international institutions, or even global central banks, these 0:04:35.920 --> 0:04:41.400 are the guard rails and unless these institutions function effectively, 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:45.200 we're going to see more risk events. And I think 0:04:45.320 --> 0:04:49.559 that this heuristic is a useful way to look at 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:53.000 this kind of blizzard of events. 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:54.840 This is so important, folks. 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:57.800 And of course the title of Tina Fortum's forum Global 0:04:57.839 --> 0:05:01.640 Foresight there note is never going back to normal. If 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:05.279 we're not going back to normal, Tin of fordom, how 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:11.320 do we defend ourselves against not populism because there's benefits there, 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:16.680 but harmful populism. How do we defend ourselves from the 0:05:16.720 --> 0:05:20.359 harmful populism of other eras that ended ugly. 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:27.239 That's where rule of law and institutions come in. And 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:30.560 these are the kinds of you know, the kinds of 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:36.640 forces that are increasingly under attack and mistrusted. The problem 0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:40.640 is we don't really have alternatives to them. And any 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:45.719 kind of revolutionary movement wants to you know, wants to 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:49.880 burn down what came before it, the idea being of course, 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:53.360 that you could build something newer and better in its place. 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:56.719 And this is where when you know, when people ask 0:05:56.760 --> 0:06:01.240 me this question at investor events or board meetings, I 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:04.480 talk about, how, you know, unless we believe in predestination, 0:06:05.240 --> 0:06:08.640 there is a you know, contributions that we make as individuals, 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:12.400 as citizens, as you know, as investors and business leaders, 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:17.240 and even as as parents into maintaining the guardrails that 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:21.120 prevent risks from turning into crises. 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:24.320 Tina, one final question I want to get this. INCURTI 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:29.480 grouped in London yesterday was absolutely riveting on the images 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:33.680 of the migrants across the English Channel over the weekend. 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:38.400 Is the phrasing here migration is out of control in 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:39.400 the United Kingdom? 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:40.640 How would you call her that? 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:48.960 On a day like that, there were more border crossings. 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:51.440 And again, if we put it back in the super 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:57.760 cycle framework, climate change, corruption, erosion of civil rights and 0:06:57.800 --> 0:07:01.800 civil liberties, these are all drivers of more migration, and 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:05.359 so as long as they proliferate, we should expect more 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:10.040 efforts for people to leave their homes and come elsewhere, 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:15.280 and without institutions, we're going to see that feed into 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:20.200 the political process, into regulation, legislation, and the kind of 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:23.960 low trust that we see in so many developed countries 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:25.400 around the world right now. 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:28.040 Tina, thank you for the time. Tina Fordham, she's with 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:36.640 Fordham Global Foresight. Look for her report from Fordham Global Foresight. 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:41.720 You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:44.920 weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:48.680 Applecarplay and Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:50.320 watch us live on YouTube. 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:52.080 I spent weeks. 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:54.280 Trying to get Christopher Harvey in here, hesus Wells Fargo 0:07:54.320 --> 0:07:58.360 ahead of Equity Strategy and joins us this morning. I 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:01.600 love the tone of your optimism. 0:08:02.040 --> 0:08:05.400 How do you do it? Given the malstroam of newsflow 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:08.680 literally hour by hour? How do you do it? How 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:09.880 do you frame a view? 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:12.680 Come on, Tom? What's not to like? You have rates 0:08:12.720 --> 0:08:15.560 going up, you have tariffs every day, you have tweets, 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:19.440 you have concerned about the consumer. You have uncertainty, it's perfect, right, 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:22.280 But what we look at is we're looking at the 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:25.920 data and we're looking at six months ahead of time. Right, 0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:29.760 we think we have seen maximum uncertainty. We think we 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:32.440 have seen the bottom of the market, and we think 0:08:32.480 --> 0:08:35.240 that we're going to work better from here. Right, we're 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:38.920 expectingly have not not a ton of information on trade 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:41.920 and tariff, but progress on trade and tarwiff and templates 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:43.720 that we can work from as we go forward. 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:50.000 My foundational thing, Chris Harvey, is corporations adapt. Right across 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:54.560 the Wills Fargo span. How are you seeing corporations adapt 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:57.319 so they have the optimism you have? 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:01.160 Well, I think what corporations are doing is they're watching 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.559 every day. They're looking at the same thing that we're doing. 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:05.760 Every day. They're saying, okay, are we seeing it in 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:09.720 our business? And again getting back to Tony Capriano, he's saying, hey, 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:13.280 we're seeing pod, We're seeing the consumer spend. Right. The 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:17.000 US consumer, I think is really underappreciated. They we start 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:19.680 spending one we're five years old, and we continue to 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:22.160 spend until hopefully until ninety five. 0:09:22.480 --> 0:09:22.680 Right. 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:27.000 We understand value intuitively, we understand utility and what we 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:29.360 do is we shift to where we're finding that that 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:32.320 utility and that's what the consumer is doing, and as 0:09:32.320 --> 0:09:34.640 long as the consumer has a job, they will continue. 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:37.640 And we're just not seeing that pain or labor. 0:09:37.400 --> 0:09:38.920 Market that people are really worried about it. 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:41.960 I just had a vision of the next Wells Fargo 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:44.880 equity junket to the gritty and there you go. 0:09:45.240 --> 0:09:46.160 Yeah, thank you. 0:09:46.720 --> 0:09:50.760 I was hatch here on this Tuesday. How do you 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:54.120 look at the soft data in complement with the hard data? 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.560 Think that's what you're getting at here. And I've noted 0:09:56.760 --> 0:09:59.360 many members of the present's economic team have been highlighting this. 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:01.840 They're has been a lot of anxiety about where this 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:04.120 might be headed. We've seen that in consumer cent but 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:06.359 we've seen it in kind of the sentiment from employers 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:09.160 as well. The hard data hasn't met that. And did 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:11.559 you see them coming together at some point or should 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:12.839 we be looking at them kind of different when we 0:10:12.880 --> 0:10:13.520 look at them together. 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:16.360 So about a couple of weeks ago, we sat down 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:18.400 we had this conversation, what's going to happen between the 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:20.400 hard and soft data? Are they're going to converge or 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:23.320 should we actually be looking at the soft data, and 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:26.280 the conclusion we came to is we're not completely dismissing 0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:29.280 the soft data, but what we realized is after the 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:32.400 presidential election cycle, we should be looking at the betting markets, 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:35.559 placing more weight on the betting markets. And the betting markets, 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:38.400 or the prediction markets, i should say, are where we're 0:10:38.440 --> 0:10:41.199 getting our quote unquote soft data, and it's telling you 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:44.880 a much different story on inflation, on recession, so on and 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:49.679 so forth. So we discount significantly the soft data. We 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:52.120 watch the hard data like a hawk every day, and 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:55.120 when we want sentiment soft data, we're either talking to 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:57.080 clients or we're looking at the prediction markes. 0:10:57.240 --> 0:10:59.080 A bit more about that, I'm very curious of how 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:01.400 someone in your position approaches that world, which I think 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:03.280 is a novel want to renew one to a lot 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:03.679 of people. 0:11:04.040 --> 0:11:06.360 How do you make good use of the prediction markets? 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:08.439 Well, well, you're talking to a guy that when was 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:11.280 seven years old, which reason the racing forms to his grandfathers. 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:14.720 So we have been involved in these types of markets 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:16.120 for a while, and I think there's a lot of 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:18.520 information in these markets, and we saw that during the 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:22.160 presidential election cycle. And what we do is we're just 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:25.200 always looking for that signal. We're always looking for information, 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:28.480 and there's information there. When we start to deconstruct how 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:31.880 the surveys are done, we get less confidence on the 0:11:31.920 --> 0:11:34.800 soft data. And while people look at it and we 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:36.439 have to think about it and we have to react 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:38.320 to it, we're just not putting a whole lot of 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:39.719 weight on it. And at the end of the day, 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.719 we're talking to our economists, we're talking to companies, we're 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:46.280 going through transcripts, we're trying to break our thesis every day, 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:47.840 and we're just having a hard time doing that. 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:54.839 How do you overlay the technology view forward and productivity 0:11:54.920 --> 0:11:58.680 forward right onto a persistency of corporate earnings? To me, 0:11:58.760 --> 0:11:59.920 it's underestimated. 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:04.880 I think so I was around in the late nineties 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:08.240 and I remember what was happening there wa way. 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:12.920 Faster, John help here. 0:12:13.880 --> 0:12:17.880 And the comparison, it's not a comparison between today and 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:21.880 back then. Back then you had very levered companies. I'll 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:25.040 throw out some goodies World com Quest, Global, Crossing level three, 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:33.200 tapping God bless you. But today you have the hyper 0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:37.040 scace that aws the Microsoft, the Metas, the Googles of 0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:39.560 the world. These are companies that don't need to go 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:41.760 to the capital markets and fund themselves. 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:42.120 Right. 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:44.280 Furthermore, if you look at the technology, what we were 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:46.400 doing is we were laying a dumb We were a 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.560 dumb technology in the ground fiber optic cable, which did 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:52.840 not become obsolete for a good decade decade plus. Today, 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:55.640 what we have is really and I'm using the phrase 0:12:55.640 --> 0:13:00.400 that Jensen used, we have AI factories. You have then foundation, 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:02.800 and on top of that you have the innovation. And 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:05.520 it's a very nice symbolic. Really is symbiotic release. 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:07.760 Joy Chris Harvey with us with Wells Fargo. We continue 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:11.840 as chief US secuity strategist here. We do this at 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:13.720 eight or nine year with the futures improved, how. 0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:14.640 Are we lifting the market? 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:18.160 Futures negative eighteen on negative nine, the vics nicely under 0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:20.440 twenty eighteen point five to. 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:23.760 Two dollar churning a little bit on DXY, little bit. 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:26.520 Of dollar strength fractional I call it. Over the last 0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:28.920 two days. David Gera in for Paul Sweeney. 0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:31.439 David, Chris, I want to ask you about AI. We've 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:33.240 talked too much about in video yet you mentioned it 0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:35.080 just a moment ago. We had this news this morning 0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:38.080 that Meta is going to contract for nuclear power with Constellation. 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:39.240 You have this kind of. 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:41.640 Picks and shovels portfolio when it comes to AIS. These 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:44.160 are companies that are kind of ancillary maybe the big 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:45.640 ones that we talk a lot about. 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:47.480 Where do you see growth there? 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:49.199 So it's not as if we've turned the page here 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:51.480 from that last chapter, this one, the AI story continues. 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.120 What's interesting to you about the secretor today? Where do 0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:56.720 you see opportunity besides the big names, the handful of 0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:57.920 big names we talk so much about. 0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:01.000 I think the biggest near term issue you is the 0:14:01.080 --> 0:14:04.000 AID Diffusion Act. The AI Diffusion Act has been mitigated. 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:06.360 So now what you can do is you can export 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:10.440 that technology. And what I think is Jensen is probably 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:13.480 the new Tim Cook if it looks like he has 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:16.200 the ear of the administration. And what they're realizing is 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:19.360 we do need to be that base level of AI. 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.200 We do need to export it. We do need us 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:25.000 technology all throughout the world because if we don't, somebody 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:27.800 else will step in. That somebody else is properly China. 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:31.120 And so I think the most important thing is the 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:34.520 mitigation of the AI difusion index, because now we can export, 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.560 we can become that base layer. But this is a 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.360 very different technology than what we saw in the late nineties, 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:43.160 and we're still, i would say, in the mid innings 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:45.880 for this. There's a lot more to do. The computational 0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:49.680 power that you need, the actual power that you use 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:51.400 is hard to comprehend. 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:54.000 In the grind of this, which ratio and the income 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:57.080 statement is most efficacious right now? I mean I think 0:14:57.160 --> 0:14:59.960 back to time, Gelbot at DLJ was a price to say, 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:03.600 price to sales. But coming down the income statement, which 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:05.960 describes your optimism best. 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:08.640 It's still not earnings. Right if you look at the hyperscale, 0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:10.880 as the hyperscals are making money up. 0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:14.400 Thirty two percent versus this, am I right up eight percent? 0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:16.840 I don't know off the top of my head, but 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:20.680 they are. The answer is we've never seen this, right, 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:24.240 That's right. They are putting. They are spending capex, but 0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:26.240 they are getting a return for their capex, and they 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:29.800 will continue to do that until that equation no longer works. 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.800 And as we look at it, it is working and 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:34.000 it will continue to work. 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:37.720 So this is critical if I'm scared stiff, right, But 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:41.200 Chris Harvey's telling me I got to participate is my 0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:46.400 psychological relief to take my terminal value out a little 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.080 bit farther and say, Okay, I'm nervous. I'm going to 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:51.520 own this stuff. But it's not a three year vision, 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:54.600 it's a five year vision. Is that the act? 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:57.200 Well, I think what you want to do in any portfolio, 0:15:57.240 --> 0:15:59.640 you have to have some you have to have an anchor, 0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:01.520 You have to have some sort of low volatility or 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:04.320 defensive property to it. What we've been telling people, we 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:07.160 started the year with anchoring it with staples. Now we're 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:11.280 anchoring it with utilities, and so that's going to mitigate 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:14.040 and has mitigated the uncertainty. If you want to if 0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:17.280 you want to get involved in lovall, SPLV or USMV, 0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:20.760 that's fine, but just anchor, right, look for those really 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:24.360 good risk awards. Look out three five years, right, take 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:27.080 those good risk awards, but anchor that with something else, 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:29.480 because you do have to mitigate that uncertainty because of 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:32.000 the uncertainty. I'm not going to discount it's. 0:16:31.640 --> 0:16:35.720 Still quite real maximum uncertainty. You're confident in that sort 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:37.680 of how do you see all this playing out over 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:39.920 the course of the summer. So we're coming up against 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:42.080 some very hard deadlines here as the President continues to 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:44.480 make threats and ratchet up the tariffs that he's put 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:47.400 in place. Your sense of where we're headed. 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:50.160 So these in these talks, these negotiations, you. 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:52.240 Know, it's really I don't mean to be evasive, but 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:54.560 it is really tough. What I'm looking for is I'm 0:16:54.600 --> 0:16:57.720 just looking for progress. I expect to hear progress out 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:02.760 of Asia. First. I am really surprised about the relationship 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:06.000 between China and the US. I did not expect them 0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:08.880 to sit down as early as they did, and that 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:10.960 I think is a real positive. And that's a positive 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:14.000 I hadn't been thinking about. I thought that was frozen. 0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:16.919 That's not happening. That's the last thing that's going to occur. 0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:20.080 So that's actually very encouraging. But we do need to 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.159 see something either out of India or Japan or South Korea, 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:26.399 something to set the template. We don't see that, and 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:28.920 by the end of June the summer is going to 0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:30.960 be a little bit more choppy than I think. 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:33.480 What is there, I mean, you know, the advantage to 0:17:33.600 --> 0:17:36.520 Jay Brice and what is the what is their incentive 0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:38.560 to provide an initial template. 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.960 I see no incentive for Japan to act well. 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:44.640 If you're India, I think there's a lot there. Right. 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:51.240 We have a lot of things that they want ag aerospace, armament, power, 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:54.240 and they have many things that that we need. Right, 0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:56.960 they can help us this intermediate China. They have the 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:57.960 ability to do that. 0:17:58.400 --> 0:17:58.520 Right. 0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:00.639 One of the things that we do worry about, and 0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:03.320 we've been talking about, is what about the ports. How 0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:05.640 do you get things from point A to point B? 0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:08.800 And do they have enough ports? But I think India 0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:11.359 is the key, and I think they will likely be 0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:12.800 the first or one of the first. 0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.240 Chris Harvey with was his optimism on the equity market. 0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:17.720 He's with Wells Fargo. I want you to up set 0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:19.680 up the polarity we've been talking about for the last 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:22.879 couple of days, which is maybe three zip codes in 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:26.239 Manhattan versus the rest of the country. You're advantaged at 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:30.920 Wells Fargo by having I think, really a breadth across America. 0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:35.159 What is the difference between the zeitgeist now almost of 0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:37.960 the eastern quarters, you know a little bit of the 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:40.920 West coast, and what's really going on out there. 0:18:41.280 --> 0:18:43.760 So what I think is really going on out there 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:46.560 is people really do back up the administration. They really 0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:49.320 do feel like something has to be done on trade 0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:51.680 and tower and they think that we're making the right 0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:55.399 steps in that direction. When for somebody like me and 0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:58.000 somebody like you, we're looking at every single tweet, we're 0:18:58.000 --> 0:19:00.800 looking every single thing. People in the and people on 0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:02.719 their day to day jobs, they just don't do that. 0:19:02.960 --> 0:19:06.120 And what they see is have a job. Things are good, 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:09.960 they're doing well. Economy seems to be fine, and we're 0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:12.040 just going to keep moving forward. And we think the 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:15.000 economy and the situation is moving forward. And they look 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:17.040 at the technology and they say, hey, this is an 0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:20.040 amazing technology. The world's an okay place, David. 0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:21.680 When it comes to. 0:19:23.880 --> 0:19:25.880 How about when it comes to this tax and spending bill, 0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:28.119 and you can talking about regular folks in this country 0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:30.840 or watching all of that unfold maybe from a distance, 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.240 how much does that standard sort of change your world, 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:36.440 whether or not we see that past in July or 0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:37.920 August or later this year. 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:40.520 I don't think it changes for the average person all 0:19:40.520 --> 0:19:42.840 that much. The salt tab. We've been looking into the 0:19:42.880 --> 0:19:44.679 salt tax, and I think that helps a lot of 0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:47.639 people in high tax states, but on the higher income, 0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:52.320 and that probably helps spending later over the next twelve 0:19:52.359 --> 0:19:54.879 eighteen months, and it helps a little bit with their 0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:57.960 bird to sentiment. I think the bigger issue is is 0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:02.240 the deficit stabilizing. Looks like the deficit is stabilizing. I'm 0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:04.680 a little bit concerned about the rhetoric and the talk 0:20:05.040 --> 0:20:07.600 about longer end rates. But if you think about it 0:20:07.600 --> 0:20:10.240 and you look at it, things haven't gotten worse. So 0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:13.280 I'm not really sure why the narrative negative it is today. 0:20:13.520 --> 0:20:16.120 It should have been much worse, much sooner. So it's 0:20:16.160 --> 0:20:17.080 a little confounding. 0:20:17.560 --> 0:20:20.040 Chris, thank you generously to come in this morning. Chris 0:20:20.040 --> 0:20:23.360 Harvey with us with Wells Fire with a real optimist 0:20:23.800 --> 0:20:26.719 take here. All of his literature is like, get on board, 0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:30.200 participate in America's feature. 0:20:30.880 --> 0:20:34.800 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:38.119 starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:41.200 with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:44.879 on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 0:20:44.920 --> 0:20:47.399 say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:20:47.480 --> 0:20:49.680 We dive into the American labor economy right now. 0:20:49.680 --> 0:20:53.160 There's no one better qualified than Thomas Purcelli is chief 0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:57.760 yours economist and PGM definitive on America's wage growth or. 0:20:57.840 --> 0:21:01.720 Lack thereof, definitive on the bar economy. In tom I'm 0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:03.280 going to go to tourst and slack out. 0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:05.960 Or the morning paragraph this morning saying look, we're at 0:21:05.960 --> 0:21:08.760 one hundred and thirty thousand non farm payrolls on Friday. 0:21:09.080 --> 0:21:10.000 He doesn't buy it. 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:16.240 Question mark sixty four thousand NFP coming with continuing claims 0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:21.000