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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast, PODYA, All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 1: Tony Cody five fifty and the Kick as Black The

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Speaker 1: college Football World Stunners, Oh my goodness, please stumble the

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Speaker 1: bumble the latteral turn the counter on the job. Don't

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Speaker 1: you believe that I came off.

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Speaker 2: The field to night.

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Speaker 1: It's not the side of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 1: It's the side of the fight in the dog. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, brought to you

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Speaker 1: by bet MGM. The start couple of five deep dive

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Speaker 1: on Mike Calvary's joined by Mike Ianello. And before we

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Speaker 1: get started, like to give a big hearty thank you

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Speaker 1: to everyone in our listenership, our audience, everyone reaching out

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Speaker 1: at the passing of my father last week. Who him

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Speaker 1: and I We just had a million memories together, as

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Speaker 1: you can imagine, but in the world of college football

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Speaker 1: in particular. He took me to my very first game.

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Speaker 1: It was Michigan Ohio State in the late nineties. Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady led a fourth quarter drive and basically from there,

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Speaker 1: like my love of college football just blossomed and we

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Speaker 1: ended up going to dozens of games together all over

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Speaker 1: SEC country, and it was very meaningful to me. All

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Speaker 1: the kind words, everything that was being shared on social

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Speaker 1: media in our you know, comments as well as our reviews.

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Speaker 1: I really appreciate that. And a special thanks to the

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Speaker 1: entire Action Network family. So many people kind of blew

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Speaker 1: me away with you know, their kindness, their insight, you know,

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Speaker 1: their caring. And also Mike Iinello here was one of those.

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Speaker 1: I really appreciate you keeping it all together with Tim Kalanowski.

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Speaker 1: Last week. I listened to the show. I really loved it.

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Speaker 1: I thought you guys did a great job. So from

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Speaker 1: the Calibery's family to the Action Network family and everyone

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Speaker 1: who listens, we all really shot. So thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're happy to have you back. You know, we

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Speaker 2: appreciate Tim fill In, but you know I loved him,

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Speaker 2: but it just wasn't the same without you, So we are.

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Speaker 2: You're definitely happy to have you back. Although I don't

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Speaker 2: know if you said you listened to the show, there

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Speaker 2: was we were pretty close to hitting the money line

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Speaker 2: underdog parlay. You might have been wally pipped. We were

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Speaker 2: a wyoming, blocked field, blocked extra point away from me

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Speaker 2: and Tim cash and are parlay, so we might have

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Speaker 2: to have him back just to do that section.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know about Wallypip's career numbers probably a

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Speaker 1: lot better than me and the money Line Underdog segment

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Speaker 1: of this program, so I can't imagine that the GM

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Speaker 1: would be all that's conflicted in terms of who they

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Speaker 1: should go with. You know what's gonna make me feel

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Speaker 1: good getting back into our g five heroes of the week,

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Speaker 1: because I have one that's a little bit obscure right

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Speaker 1: off the bat. I love throwing out these names, so

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Speaker 1: you're like, who is that guy?

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Speaker 2: Locking hero Babe.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna are with Brian Hanson, the kickoff specialists for

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Speaker 1: Colorado State, because there's nothing better than some late nights tomfoolery.

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Speaker 1: Some usually it was you know the Pac twelve after dark,

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Speaker 1: there's the Mountain West after dark. Colorado State digs themselves

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Speaker 1: a huge hole. They need their specialists to have some

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Speaker 1: perfectly fine tuned on sie kicks. He does it, so

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Speaker 1: the Red Shirt freshman a walk on mind you goes ed,

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Speaker 1: the first one perfectly executed, the second one also perfectly executed.

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Speaker 1: He gets called back on a penalty. I believe they

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Speaker 1: blocked a guy before it went ten yards, but he

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Speaker 1: gave them life and really it swung the entire game.

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Speaker 1: They don't win that game without those extra possessions. And

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Speaker 1: just a shout out to his hometown, Callieville, Texas. That's

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Speaker 1: where my college roommates at Miszoo was from. So it's

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Speaker 1: nice to see that Colorado State has kind of a

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Speaker 1: national recruiting net going after a kid who actually initially

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Speaker 1: was a commit for UTSA but then walks on to

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Speaker 1: Colorado State and really saves their season, as we were

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Speaker 1: talking about before the show started, saving the Colorado State

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Speaker 1: win total for sure, and now that that has life

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Speaker 1: and has legs, so we'll see if Colorado State can

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Speaker 1: also parlay that into maybe making a run and making

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Speaker 1: it to the Mountain West Conference championship game. It's still

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Speaker 1: a ton of work to be done, still a lot

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Speaker 1: of issues with them offensively, they go through these prolonged funks.

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Speaker 1: But in terms of the G five here of the week,

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Speaker 1: for me, what's better than having a kickoff Specialist Brian Hanson,

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Speaker 1: thank you for doing the lord's work getting the Rams

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Speaker 1: back into it.

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Speaker 2: Calary's I'm glad that week apart. Didn't dull our chemistry

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Speaker 2: one bit because I wrote down Braden valor Nicolosi.

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Speaker 1: There we go.

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Speaker 2: All right, your guy did the dirty work and put

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Speaker 2: the ball back and fouling Nicolosi's hands. Three touchdowns in

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Speaker 2: the final four minutes, thirty three yard touchdown pass but

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Speaker 2: zero seconds left to win. As you mentioned, it saved

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Speaker 2: our Colorado State win total. Tim asked me about this

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Speaker 2: game on the pod. I said, obviously I love the Rams,

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Speaker 2: but I feel like they've burned us too many times

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Speaker 2: where we trust them and they don't win, and just

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Speaker 2: when I think we're out, they pull us back in.

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Speaker 2: So maybe maybe foreshadowing something to come on the show.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, we're right there. We're riding the Rams once again.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's kick it straight to our best bets

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Speaker 1: here in week eight. Try to get off to a

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Speaker 1: hot starts. I'll let you go first this time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Something

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Speaker 2: that you know I gave out in back in the

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Speaker 2: summer on our conference preview shows. I told you in

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Speaker 2: the summer I think Miami Ohio wins the MAC. Well,

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Speaker 2: this is basically a MAC title game preview, and I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna bet him in both games and hope I win

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Speaker 2: one of them. I'll be honest. I hope it's the

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Speaker 2: second one, but just in case it's not, I'm taking

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Speaker 2: Miami Ohio here plus one and a half against Toledo

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Speaker 2: at home. I said it, and I think I've been

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Speaker 2: proven right. Breck Abbert's the best quarterback in the MAC.

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Speaker 2: He has fourteen touchdowns, just four picks this year, nine

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Speaker 2: point two yards per tempt. I know I'm higher on

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Speaker 2: daykon Finn than you are. I know you don't like

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Speaker 2: him at all. I still think he's pretty good, but

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Speaker 2: he doesn't have the explosiveness that Gabbert does, especially this

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Speaker 2: year with our boy Gajel Arvadaine, who has established himself

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Speaker 2: as the most explosive player in the MAC. He's averaging

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Speaker 2: twenty one yards per catch. He is so good. Joe

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Speaker 2: Wilkins and their Dame transfer has given them such a

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Speaker 2: good possession guy. Two lethal weapons in Toledo's entire offense

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Speaker 2: this year has been Penny Boon, and he's terrific. He

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Speaker 2: runs the ball so well. But Miami has a great defense.

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Speaker 2: They're fortyth in the country in success right against the

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Speaker 2: run and that's included bad games against Miami and Cincinnati,

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Speaker 2: and that they're still that high. In three MAC games,

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Speaker 2: they've allowed just eighty eight yards rushing per game. They

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Speaker 2: don't allow big plays. They create a ton of havoc

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Speaker 2: with Caiden Willard and Brian Uglu and Matt Soblepek is

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Speaker 2: probably one of the best linebackers in the MAC, so

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Speaker 2: he's great against the run. Finn has twelve big time

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Speaker 2: throws this year and ten turnover whethy plays. It hasn't

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Speaker 2: fully bit him yet. I think it's there. It's lingering Toledo.

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Speaker 2: Their defensive numbers are fine. We know they're pretty good

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Speaker 2: on defense. So luckily they've played Illinois, Texas, Southern San

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Speaker 2: Jose State, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois.

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Speaker 1: U Mass in Ball State.

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Speaker 2: Who's the best offense they've placed. They gave up seven

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Speaker 2: yards for play to UMass in Northern Illinois. So I

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Speaker 2: think Miami has the better defense. I know they have

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Speaker 2: the better quarterback, and they're at home here catching a

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Speaker 2: point a half. Give me Miami, Ohio here.

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Speaker 1: I'm hoping for your sake. You know there's I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: say go as far as they complaints from those you

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Speaker 1: know students at MAX schools, but it's like maction is

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Speaker 1: great for the TV audience. We love it having games

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday and Wednesday, not so much for the fan experience.

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Speaker 1: You look at the crowds and there's like two hundred

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Speaker 1: three hundred people. They better show out for this game.

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Speaker 1: This better be a packed house. This is an opportunity

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Speaker 1: to insert yourself in, you know, arguably finishing the year ranked.

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Speaker 1: If you go ahead and win this and then win

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Speaker 1: out and win the MAC title. This is it for

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Speaker 1: Miami Ohio. It's been a culmination. Can they keep Gabbart healthy?

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Speaker 1: Can they find somebody on the perimeter to replace hipp

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Speaker 1: and Hammer? They did engage Larviadane, and I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: He's the most electric playmaker in this entire conference. So

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Speaker 1: I you know, Gun, in my head, I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: with you on the RedHawks. I think this is the

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Speaker 1: right play, is the right side of it. I tried

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Speaker 1: to be measured kind of listening to your rationale because

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Speaker 1: I'm not a finn fan in terms of, you know,

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Speaker 1: when they really need him in big games. So we're

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Speaker 1: gonna see if I get burned, but I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: with Miami.

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Speaker 2: Of a hog like Toledo in general in big games.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and you know I agree with when you look

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Speaker 1: at their schedule this year, they just haven't impressed me

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Speaker 1: as much as I thought they would potentially, as you know,

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Speaker 1: the preseason Mac favorite, you would think that they'd really

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Speaker 1: show out in some of these games. And the running

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Speaker 1: game has has popped and Penny Boone, I agree to

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Speaker 1: somebody that you have to bottle up and corral in

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Speaker 1: this game. But outside of that, I just don't see

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Speaker 1: anything necessarily special Conference champion to be feared kind of

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Speaker 1: special out of this rocket team. All right, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go ahead, and for the finance listeners in our crowd,

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Speaker 1: this is something you're not really supposed to do in

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Speaker 1: the stock market, which is try to catch a falling

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Speaker 1: knife if you want to see a stock kind of

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Speaker 1: bottom out first and then try to see if there's value.

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Speaker 1: I don't care. I'm trying to catch this bad boy.

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Speaker 1: I'm going San Jose State laying five and a half

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Speaker 1: against you State, and I'll make it pretty simple here.

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Speaker 1: Santjose State's run defense is just awful. It's the worse

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Speaker 1: than the Mountain West. Their defensive success rate overall is

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Speaker 1: one hundred and sixteenth in the country. But the reason

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Speaker 1: why I say catch the following knife on this one

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Speaker 1: their schedule unbelievable USC Oregon State, Toledo Air Force, and

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Speaker 1: they played at Boise. That explains why their record is

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Speaker 1: what it is. And then when I start to look

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Speaker 1: in for moments of optimism, there's plenty this offense can pop.

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Speaker 1: They're seventeenth and explosive this They're thirty first in success

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Speaker 1: rate on the grounds, and Kyrie Robinson has ninety d's

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Speaker 1: in his last five games. Cordero to me is fine.

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Speaker 1: I think he is properly positioned in this offense not

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Speaker 1: to have to win games. He doesn't have to throw

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Speaker 1: at forty five times. He doesn't need to go for

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Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty yards and multiple touchdowns for them

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Speaker 1: to win. He just needs to protect the football. And

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Speaker 1: this is up against a UTA State defense that cannot

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Speaker 1: stop the run. Absolutely not. They're going to get shredded

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Speaker 1: by Robinson in this game. They do stop explosive plays,

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Speaker 1: but that's about it. That's the only good thing that

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Speaker 1: you can say about this Aggie's defense. So I'm going

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Speaker 1: to go ahead and play a team that record wise,

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Speaker 1: when you're scrolling through your apps and you're looking, you know,

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Speaker 1: at the scoreboards. Oh, San Jose State must think just

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Speaker 1: remember this schedule was so daunting. They're losing to so

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Speaker 1: many ranked teams USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, who

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Speaker 1: we just mentioned they're not ranked with They you know,

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Speaker 1: our positioned to potentially win their conference a lot of

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Speaker 1: difficult games. I think it's hiding their value. I think

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Speaker 1: they're a lot better. Even though Utah State has surprised

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Speaker 1: both of us in terms of their feistiness this year.

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Speaker 1: They end up covering by the hook against this exact

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Speaker 1: same spread last week against Fresno. But I think San

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Speaker 1: Jose State is better position. Just run, run, run. You

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Speaker 1: saw it with Shard from Fresno State last week. I

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Speaker 1: think you went for one thirty couple scores. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to see even better numbers out of Robinson in this

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Speaker 1: one on go to the Spartans.

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Speaker 2: Have we bet against Utahs date in like five straight shows?

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Speaker 1: I mean, you tell me at this point, Like I said,

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna keep your eye in it.

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Speaker 2: Because say we had car out of Stately, Yukon. I

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Speaker 2: can't remember if we took air Force or not, but

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Speaker 2: at least four.

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Speaker 1: Well eventually, I mean you would think that we would

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Speaker 1: be right at some point. Here a reminder to our audience.

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Speaker 1: BBOC is presented by Bett MGM. Use bonus code action

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Speaker 1: when signing up to get a fifteen hundred dollars aid

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Speaker 1: back bonus in bets if your first bet loses. For

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler right now. It's

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite segments. I missed it dearly in

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Speaker 1: my week away. Are round robin parlay. This is the

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Speaker 1: G five high five. So remember these are five picks.

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Speaker 1: Package them together however you see fit in a round robin, twos, threes,

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Speaker 1: fours if you feel an extra spicy, or just go

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Speaker 1: the whole way with a five team or parlay. And

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Speaker 1: I believe you're doing the heavy lifting this week. I knowl

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Speaker 1: with three, but you did promise a gross action under

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Speaker 1: so I can't wait to hear that one, the G

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Speaker 1: five high five I find.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna end with that one. I'm gonna start with

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Speaker 2: welcoming you back in the perfect way fit. I gotta

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Speaker 2: get that hatred back bubbling up inside. You give me

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Speaker 2: Memphis minus five and a half against UAB. Look, I

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Speaker 2: bet Memphis last week against Tulane. Obviously they lost that,

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Speaker 2: but as you would be and Tulane and that was

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Speaker 2: a weird game. Hendigan through two bad picks, one of

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Speaker 2: them like in and out of the receiver's hands. Their

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Speaker 2: defense dropped like four picks that they should have had.

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Speaker 2: Two of them were probably picked sixes. It was just

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Speaker 2: kind of a you know, I mean, it was the

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Speaker 2: wrong side. Toulane's just good, but UAB is not. I

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Speaker 2: still love Seth Henigan, Demere Blanco See and Rock Taylor

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Speaker 2: are nasty. They both had great Gamesy and Sulanne. They

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Speaker 2: both went over one hundred yards. I love this rock

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Speaker 2: tailor Cat. I love both of them. A big part

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Speaker 2: of my handicap last week too, was how good Blake

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Speaker 2: Watson has been as a runner and receiver that dual

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Speaker 2: threat option. He got banged up early and played very

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Speaker 2: limited snaps, and it showed Hennigan did not have that

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Speaker 2: safety blanket that he usually has. Ryan Silverfield called them

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Speaker 2: day to day, sounded optimistic. Yeah, you know, I'll feel

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Speaker 2: a lot better about this is Watson's in, but I

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Speaker 2: honestly still like it without him. That's why I'm giving

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Speaker 2: it out. But he did sound optimistic. Hopefully he plays.

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Speaker 2: Uab's one hundred and thirtieth in the country in success

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Speaker 2: right on defense, they are miserable, and they can't stop

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Speaker 2: the pass, and they can't stop the run. Memphis should

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Speaker 2: be able to score at will. Here. UAB has been

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Speaker 2: better on offense than I thought. But Memphis ranks forty

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Speaker 2: first in the country on defense, thirtieth at creating havocs VB.

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Speaker 2: Offensive line is terrible, and Memphis is fantastic against the past.

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Speaker 2: And UAB is top ten in the country in pass

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Speaker 2: attempts per game. That's kind of what they want to do,

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Speaker 2: and that's what memphis Is strength is. We have seen

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Speaker 2: when UAV plays teams that are better than them, they

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Speaker 2: get their doors blowing off Georgia Southern beating him by fourteen,

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Speaker 2: Louisiana beating him by twenty, Memphis better than both of them.

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Speaker 2: Georgia obviously beate him by twenty eight, Caulaine beat him

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Speaker 2: by twelve. You Tsa beat him by twenty one. I

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Speaker 2: think coming off a frustrating law against the defending conference champion,

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Speaker 2: you know, that was kind of a measuring sick game

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Speaker 2: for Memphis and it was a disappointing loss. I expected

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Speaker 2: Tigers to flex a little here, get back on track.

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Speaker 2: I think they run it up against you av. You

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Speaker 2: got an extra day's rest. Give me the Tigers.

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Speaker 1: Because my first addition to the round robin is the

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Speaker 1: rationale is so brief, I can spend a little extra

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Speaker 1: time on this one. Getting back into the swing of

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Speaker 1: things this week. What do I need to do? First?

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Speaker 1: Of course, sit down and watch the Trent til For

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Speaker 1: press conference on Monday, which they did. And now I

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Speaker 1: mean now, I consider the guy, like you know, essentially

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Speaker 1: a part of my weekly routine. So I know the

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Speaker 1: ebb and flow, I know his body language. I know

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Speaker 1: when he's holding back from saying something or when he's

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Speaker 1: really you know, spinning the truth up on his little

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Speaker 1: podium that says fire breathers only he is essentially moving

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Speaker 1: on to next year. He knows that he does not

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Speaker 1: have the horses on defense, Like he says one or

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Speaker 1: two nice things about, you know, their dtackles, and that's

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Speaker 1: basically it. Everybody else. They're just trying to get them

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Speaker 1: lined up right. They're just trying to make sure they

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Speaker 1: don't have any critical but when it comes to slowing

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Speaker 1: anybody down, they can't do it at all. And I

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Speaker 1: agree with you. If Blake Watson's a going this game,

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna get lit up. I think they'll

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Speaker 1: give up north to forty points and offensively, Zeno has

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Speaker 1: exceeded my expectations, but they're still not explosive enough. I

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Speaker 1: like that true freshman or retro freshman they have at

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Speaker 1: wide receiver. He's been, you know, a bright spot for them.

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Speaker 1: But outside of that, I just don't see UAB being

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Speaker 1: able to hold up second part of this handicap. Do

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Speaker 1: you know what the trophy they're playing for in this one,

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Speaker 1: because this is a rivalry game between UAB and Memphis. Really,

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Speaker 1: yes it is, and it's one of the coolest trophies

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Speaker 1: in the game. And Trent was, you know, sure to

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Speaker 1: point out that the ad allowed him to try to

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Speaker 1: pick it up and he could barely do it. It's

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Speaker 1: like eighty one pounds. It is the Battle of the Bones.

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Speaker 1: And feel free to look it up on your phone, everybody.

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Speaker 1: It is a big old slab of ribs bronzed on

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Speaker 1: top of like a little mini podium. It's incredible. It's

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Speaker 1: why I love college football, you know. I want more

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Speaker 1: of the like weird, like the Platypus Cup and like

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Speaker 1: all the chalele and all this stuff that they play for,

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Speaker 1: but the playing for ribs. The press corps in Birmingham

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Speaker 1: tried to entrap Dilfer. He was, you know, pretty wily.

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Speaker 1: He walked his way out of it. But he's saying,

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Speaker 1: you know, do you prefer dry ribs, the dry rub

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Speaker 1: of Memphis style? Do you like, you know, the slathered

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Speaker 1: in sauce kind of Birmingham style. And he was very

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Speaker 1: wise to say that he's a Birmingham man all the way.

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Speaker 1: I am as well. I prefer my my ribs that way.

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Speaker 1: If you're really playing me enough, what missage your feet

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Speaker 1: in any of these sauce is awesome. Hopping to my

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Speaker 1: addition to the round robin this week, and as I said,

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Speaker 1: it is a very brief synopsis. Air Force traveling to

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Speaker 1: Annapolis to play the midies Navy getting eleven and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's too many points playing and Simple Service Academy Verus

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Speaker 1: Service Academy. When a team is catching double digits as

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Speaker 1: a dog, they've covered sixty four percent of the time

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Speaker 1: dating back to nineteen ninety six. Air Force in their

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Speaker 1: last sixteen games as a favorite against Navy, dating all

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Speaker 1: the way back to nineteen ninety eight, they're four and

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Speaker 1: twelve against the spread. Their last six strips to Annapolis

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Speaker 1: as a favorite, they're one and five against the spread.

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Speaker 1: So I just view this as teams that are familiar

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Speaker 1: with scheme. Navy's, you know, made a few modifications to

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Speaker 1: their system, but it's still essentially a triple option. They

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Speaker 1: know what they're getting against air Force, and the last

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Speaker 1: four weeks Navies looked pretty decent. They got two wins outright.

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Speaker 1: They nearly upset Memphis on the road. They looked very

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Speaker 1: good defensively in that game. They're trending up. Alex Taha Texha,

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Speaker 1: I should say, is killing it at fullback. He's averaging

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Speaker 1: over eight yards per carry in his last four games alone.

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Speaker 1: He's got four scores, four hundred and fifty seven yards

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Speaker 1: and over nine yards per carry. So I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to get namored with, you know, the offensive stats, because

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Speaker 1: this is just going to be one of those running

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Speaker 1: clock kind of games. Few possessions you may have, you know,

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Speaker 1: two three possessions in an entire quarter, double digits. That's

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Speaker 1: too many. I'll take a Navy team that seems feisty.

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Speaker 1: I think they'll get to you know, let's call it

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Speaker 1: five wins. Maybe they can flirt with six and Bowl

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Speaker 1: eligibility in Newberry's first year. I like what Navy has here,

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Speaker 1: and as much as I want like, we're very close

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Speaker 1: to one of my dream scenarios. I shared this on

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Speaker 1: Twitter a couple of years ago. Things that I need

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Speaker 1: to see happen. I want to see another defensive player

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Speaker 1: win the Heisman. I want to see a Service Academy

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Speaker 1: in the year six game. I think it would be awesome.

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Speaker 1: You know, obviously they're all national institutions. Their fans and

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Speaker 1: alumnus live all over the country. They would just go

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Speaker 1: berserk to play in like the Fiesta Bowl or the

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Speaker 1: Common Bowl. I think that would be awesome. Room for

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Speaker 1: air Force. I just think this is too many points here.

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Speaker 1: What do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't love it. I certainly wouldn't lay them

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Speaker 2: with Air Force like you said, But I just I

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Speaker 2: think this Air Force team is I mean, I believe

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Speaker 2: Zach Larier is out, which does kind of consider me

390
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Speaker 2: a little bit. I okay, but this AIRFA team is

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Speaker 2: so good, and I just think Navy sucks. So I'm

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Speaker 2: kind of.

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Speaker 1: You're sleeping on this Navy defense. As I said, they

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Speaker 1: held Memphis with twenty eight points, which is not easy,

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Speaker 1: and they shut out Charlotte like they're doing what they're

396
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Speaker 1: supposed to do in these games, their shortening games, and

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Speaker 1: they're not giving up explosives at the same rate as

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Speaker 1: they were last year under ken Nea Mazalolo, So I

399
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Speaker 1: think they've improved. I just I'm surprised. I feel like

400
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Speaker 1: this is like an auto play situation for you. I

401
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Speaker 1: know you respect their force lot.

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Speaker 2: That Stucky's I've never bet Service Academy anything other than

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Speaker 2: like the auto plays the under All.

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Speaker 1: Right, we're laying down the track here, what's the next

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Speaker 1: one in the round robin?

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Speaker 2: All right, I'm going to take Georgia State plus three

407
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Speaker 2: against Louisiana. You give me the thumbs up. I always

408
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Speaker 2: love seeing that Louisiana beat an FCS school, UAB Buffalo

409
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Speaker 2: and then Texas State in a game they were outscored by.

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Speaker 1: Over one hundred yards.

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Speaker 2: Are they any good? Occasions have been able to run

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Speaker 2: the ball well, but their defense is horrific. There are

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Speaker 2: one hundred and tenth in the country and success right

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Speaker 2: on defense, and they're especially bad against the run. They're

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty fourth in the nation defending the run.

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Speaker 2: They've allowed over one hundred and seventy five yards on

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Speaker 2: the ground in three straight games, over two hundred in

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Speaker 2: the last two games. They've allowed eight rushing scores in

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Speaker 2: the last three games. Well, all Orgia State does is

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Speaker 2: run the ball. Marks Carroll is averaging one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty three point seven yards per game on the ground,

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Speaker 2: ten rushing scores. He's a monster. He's averaging over five

423
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Speaker 2: yards per carry. We know what Darren Granger could do

424
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Speaker 2: with his legs. He's kicked in fifty eight yards per

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Speaker 2: game five scores himself. He's also throwing the ball a

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Speaker 2: lot better this season compared to last year. He's averaging

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Speaker 2: over two to thirty yards per game. His completion percentages

428
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 2: up to sixty nine percent. So he gives them kind

429
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 2: of a dual thro our ability. We didn't really see

430
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 2: with them last year. All they did was run it.

431
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 2: They're still running it, but now they have that throwing option.

432
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,440
Speaker 2: And the Georgia State rush defense has been awesome. That's

433
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 2: what they're very good at. They've struggled to defend the pass.

434
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 2: Like I said, the only thing Louisiana does well is

435
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 2: run the ball. Ben Wooldridge has been hurt, so freshman

436
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 2: Xeon Cris is starting. He's got seven touchdowns, four picks.

437
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 2: He's averaged just eighteen pass stemps per game. So I

438
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 2: think this sets up nicely for what Georgia State wants

439
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 2: to do. I think people expected We've seen them. They

440
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,160
Speaker 2: beat Coastal, we've seen them have some good wins. Louisiana

441
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 2: has being nobody. I think the wrong team's favored here.

442
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 2: So I think the matchup sets well. Where they're going

443
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 2: to run the ball on a bad rush defense, they're

444
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 2: going to stop the run gaming Georgia State plus three here.

445
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 1: Granger, another little tidbit, has kept a clean sheet no

446
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,880
Speaker 1: interceptions in five of his six starts this year. That's

447
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 1: critical because when he protects the football and they keep

448
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 1: the chains moving and he adds in his dual threat elements.

449
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 1: I agree. I think they're a much better team in

450
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 1: this one. I think Louisiana is a paper tiger, and

451
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 1: they're going to get exposed, particularly game flow wise, when

452
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 1: they can't run the ball, whether they're playing from behind

453
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 1: or a tie game, or they just want to run it,

454
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:34,920
Speaker 1: they're not going to have the same kind of success

455
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:37,919
Speaker 1: they've had against a really lousy schedule. You mentioned some

456
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 1: of the teams. They played, four teams outside of the

457
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,359
Speaker 1: Sagar in top one hundred, so I think this is

458
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:43,959
Speaker 1: going to be a wake up call for them. This

459
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,120
Speaker 1: fall season is in full swing, which means if you're

460
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 1: like us, you're busy watching football. You might be so

461
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,520
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462
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463
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464
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465
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466
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467
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472
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473
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474
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475
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477
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478
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479
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480
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482
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 1: out my additions to the round robin, I'm going New

483
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 1: Mexico State minus three at UTEP. Let's start with the

484
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 1: fact we've been talking rivalries. This one's got three rivalry names,

485
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: which I love. Of course, the first one we always

486
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 1: bowed out to our corporate sponsors, First Light Federal Credit Union,

487
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 1: Battle of I ten. They're also competing for the Silver

488
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 1: Spade Trophy and the Mayor's Cup. These two schools, it's

489
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 1: one of the closest FBS rivalries. They're only separated by

490
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 1: forty miles, even though it's across the Texas New Mexico

491
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 1: State border. So it's one of the you know, most

492
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 1: passionate in terms of familiarity rivalries in all of college football,

493
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 1: and New Mexico State here is in a really good

494
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 1: position to get Bowl eligible for the second straight year

495
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 1: under Jerry Kill. But they need this win, so they're

496
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 1: laser focused in and we've talked about Dana Demmel. There's

497
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 1: a good chance he's going to finish, you know, for

498
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 1: the fifth time and sixty year later, losing record. He's

499
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: got to go four and one or better, you know,

500
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 1: to avoid that. I don't see that. They have a

501
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 1: quarterback who two months ago was fourth on their depth

502
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 1: chart up against a Kill defense that's now ranked thirty

503
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 1: seventh and havoc And just like last year, I feel

504
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 1: like this is a carbon copy. The defense keeps getting

505
00:23:56,119 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 1: better and Diego Pavia Diego Diego has been getting better

506
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 1: and better. He's averaging ninety yards per game on the

507
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,439
Speaker 1: ground in his last four starts. Ten total teas in

508
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 1: that time against just one pick. So as he plays

509
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 1: at a higher level, this team's ceiling just goes way up,

510
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 1: and it's up against the UTEP you know defense that

511
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 1: used to hang their hat on being able to stop

512
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 1: the run. They can't do that anymore. I just think

513
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 1: this is white flag time for Dimmle, for the kids

514
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 1: on the team. It just doesn't seem like it came together.

515
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 1: This is a team that really needed to win their

516
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 1: close games the last two to three years to be

517
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,159
Speaker 1: on the verge of Bowl eligibility, you know, season in,

518
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 1: season out. They're not doing it this year. I think

519
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 1: they're gonna get dump trucked in this one. The number

520
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,199
Speaker 1: kind of opens. I believe it too. It's bubbled up

521
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 1: to three and a half. I would play it all

522
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 1: the way up to, you know, minus six. I think

523
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 1: New Mexico State's the class team here, and they certainly

524
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 1: have a huge advantage at quarterback.

525
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: It seems like the thing that happened last year. It's

526
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 2: like the weather gets cold and Diego gets hot. It's

527
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,439
Speaker 2: just how the season gets on. He just he just

528
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 2: gets he just takes the wild the heat up, you know,

529
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 2: and then he gets then he gets cruising down the stretch.

530
00:24:58,800 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, I definitely like this.

531
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 1: Basically since he broke the seals, so to speak, Diego

532
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 1: has just been absolutely popping off for the Aggies. You know,

533
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 1: since that video leaked, he's just gone to a different level.

534
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 1: So I appreciate Diego. I'm glad that I didn't have

535
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 1: to shelf him for the entire year after a rough start,

536
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 1: you know, did not play well against UMAs and that opener.

537
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:18,439
Speaker 1: But like I said, the last four games he's been

538
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 1: the quarterback. I was hoping he was the JUCO national champion,

539
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 1: you know, kind of that gutsy leader, and just it's

540
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 1: not just him either, you know, it's it's run, run, run,

541
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: So they don't need him to throw the ball more

542
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 1: than probably twenty times in this game to get the dub.

543
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 1: So I really like that.

544
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 2: In New Mexico, stakings were both on this game's Wednesday night.

545
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 2: Should we uh? Should should we jump in the in

546
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,439
Speaker 2: the Action Network discord? Maybe it get we get all

547
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 2: our listeners to join and ride that that with us.

548
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 2: Should we all have a little have a little grouper

549
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 2: in the Action Network discord on a Wednesday night?

550
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 1: I'm in you don't need to threadn me with a

551
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: good time. I can't wait because either way I'm gonna

552
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 1: get peppered with all of my you know, overly Rosie

553
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: Glass looking you know, as you know Aggie's profiles for

554
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 1: this whole year, basically every time I break them down,

555
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 1: I'm playing them. So I'm gonna go put my money

556
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: where my mouth is. I'll be there. We can chop

557
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 1: it up. We can also talk collegeable player props. They'll

558
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,360
Speaker 1: be you know, solely trickling in by Wednesday, so you'll

559
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,640
Speaker 1: think it'll be a good time to talk collegeable game one. Yeah,

560
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 1: I believe.

561
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 2: We'll put the We'll put the link in the description

562
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 2: to the podcast. If you guys want to chop it

563
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,639
Speaker 2: up with us on a Wednesday night, nine o'clock, Me

564
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 2: and Calbarys will be in the Action Network discord. It's

565
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 2: free to join. Link will be in the description. We'll

566
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 2: talk some props. If you guys gus any other questions

567
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 2: about the weekend, maybe we'll you know, we can pick

568
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 2: you guys can pick our brains on other games, but

569
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 2: most importantly, let's all bet the aggies. We'll sweat it

570
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 2: together a little a little late night Wednesday night, CUSA.

571
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 2: So if you guys are riding with us, jump in

572
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 2: the discord and we'll kind of all chop it up

573
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 2: and root on Dieo die Go together. Yeah, all right,

574
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,639
Speaker 2: for my last pick I mentioned it, I'm going with

575
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 2: a growth under. I got the I got the push

576
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 2: at forty two, and Mike Kent stay under, So I'm

577
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 2: going a little bit lower here. I'm testing my boundaries.

578
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 2: I wish I had the forty two, but forty one

579
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 2: and a half, I'm still gonna take it. Give me

580
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 2: Central Michigan ball State under forty one and a half.

581
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 2: This might be a weekly thing. The offenses and the

582
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 2: MAC are so bad that, especially when we shift Tuesday

583
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,360
Speaker 2: and it gets colder and wetter and rainier, I might

584
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 2: just bet a gross under in the Mac every week.

585
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 2: These are two teams that just cannot and do not

586
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 2: throw the ball. Central Michigan is averaging one hundred and

587
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 2: ninety two passing yards per game, seven touchdowns, nine picks.

588
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 2: Ball State's averaging one hundred and sixty eight yards per game,

589
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,640
Speaker 2: seven touchdowns, seven picks. Jase Bauer has been the guy

590
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,120
Speaker 2: for the Chips. He's more of a runner than a passer.

591
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 2: Disappointing for our Chips' futures, although it still has a shot.

592
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,640
Speaker 2: We've just not seen the Burt Emmanuel we saw last year.

593
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 2: He's got two touchdowns all year, He's everything less than

594
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 2: four yards per carry. The explosiveness with him is just

595
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 2: not what we saw. Ball State's offense has been so

596
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,719
Speaker 2: badly benched Lane Hatcher, who's like on his seventh school.

597
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 2: Backup Caden's Manza is redshirting, so he's just not playing.

598
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 2: Halo Kelly is who started last week. He's basically a

599
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: wildcat quarterback. He had sixteen pass attempts eighteen rush attempts.

600
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: He completed four passes the whole game, four to his

601
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 2: own team, one to the other team.

602
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 1: Not the best ratio.

603
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 2: These teams drank one hundred and fourth and one hundred

604
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 2: and twenty first in success rate on offense. I expect

605
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 2: these two teams to just run the ball over and

606
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 2: over and over, believe the cock and while neither team

607
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 2: is great on defense, the offenses should make their jobs easy. Again,

608
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,360
Speaker 2: it's a Saturday, don't watch this game. Don't even check

609
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 2: the scores, just check the action network gap when it's over,

610
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 2: and hope to God they score less than forty points.

611
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 2: Give me Central Michigan ball State under forty one and

612
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: a half.

613
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna check one thing weather dot Com because I'm

614
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: assuming it's raining and gross a little added bonus there's

615
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: a chance of rain, but more importantly, sustained wins a

616
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: fifteen miles per hour gus up to twenty eight miles

617
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: per hour. That's what I'm talking about. I'm looking to

618
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 1: these teams really want to throw the ball that much anyway.

619
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 1: But field goals, yeah, just missed. Field goals have some

620
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: weird elements to the game, a lot of playing in

621
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 1: between the twenties. I like that. I love it. So.

622
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 2: Also, the only reason the only reason why Ken State

623
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 2: Eastern Michigan over pushed was because they literally started the

624
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 2: game with kense. They tried to do an on side

625
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 2: kick to start the game and Eastern Michigan.

626
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: Housed it for a touchdown.

627
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 2: It's just like, come on, So if that doesn't happen,

628
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 2: if they kick it deep, that underhits. So we're going

629
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 2: back to the well.

630
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 1: We're going to close out this week as we always

631
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 1: do with our moneyline underdog parlay. It's pretty quick here.

632
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 1: I'm surprised you didn't go with the money line on

633
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 1: Georgia State. I think they should be favored. You hit

634
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: all the main pointsfeled to you this week. Yes, in

635
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: addition to everything that you pointed out and why I

636
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 1: think Louisiana is just ripe to get dump trucked in

637
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 1: this game. One added elements of this is not only

638
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: has Georgia State been really good in terms of run blocking,

639
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: but also they're has been great in terms of protecting

640
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 1: from the negative plays happening to Grainger their twentieth and

641
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 1: avoiding havoc in the entire country. And because of that,

642
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be playing from a position

643
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 1: where they're head for a lot of this. It really

644
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 1: opens up the playbook to them. I love what they've

645
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 1: been able to do, you know, in terms of the

646
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 1: passing rushing balance. And Carol is a bell cow at

647
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: this point, someone who had been more or less a

648
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:25,719
Speaker 1: member of a running back by committee for the majority

649
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 1: of his career. That was probably questions, I think rightfully,

650
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 1: so could he be a feature back? He is, and

651
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: this Louisiana team, I think this is finally the visual

652
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: like coyote runs off the cliff, but the legs keep going.

653
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 1: He hasn't dropped yet. This is the moment. They're dropping

654
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: straight down. Give me the Panthers. I think you know,

655
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: plus one twenty plus one twenty five. Let's keep it,

656
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 1: let's keep it. You know, at this point, I need

657
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 1: to get some dubs on the sheet, So let's go

658
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 1: with a small underdog in the spot.

659
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 2: See a trading roles. You're taking the small you know,

660
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,479
Speaker 2: field goal dog, just like yeah, they can easily win

661
00:30:56,560 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 2: this game. And I'm pulling a normal caliberies move a

662
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 2: touchdown dog and saying, keep your damn touchdown. I'll I'll

663
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 2: take the money line. I don't feel good about it.

664
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 2: Give me Charlotte plus two to twenty five the fight

665
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 2: in diiff Pogi's. You are making a very gross face. Look,

666
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 2: Charlotte sucks, Okay, they stuck. They rank one hundred and

667
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 2: twenty seventh on offense. They can't run the ball, they

668
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 2: can't pass the ball. But unlike those will Hilly teams

669
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 2: at the end of especially his time, this Charlotte team

670
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 2: is forty ninth in the country in success rate on defense,

671
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 2: and the forty nine ers are especially good at defending

672
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 2: the run. They held Georgia State team we both just

673
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 2: mentioned we love one hundred and two rushing yards. They

674
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 2: held Florida to one hundred and eleven yards rushing last week,

675
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 2: Navy one hundred and seventy three yards on forty carries.

676
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 2: I think East Carolina is a very similar team for Charlotte.

677
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 2: They're one hundred and twenty eighth in success rate on offense.

678
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 2: They've been one of the worst teams in the country

679
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 2: of finishing drives. They can't score. They also can't pass

680
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 2: the ball. They can't run the ball. They've been rotating

681
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 2: two quarterbacks. They're both horrible. I think coming into the season,

682
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:59,719
Speaker 2: ECU started much much higher in power ratings than Charlotte did,

683
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 2: just based on you know, last year, the past couple years,

684
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 2: and I think these books and powering systems are just

685
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 2: too slow to kind of bring them together. If you

686
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 2: watch these two teams, if you dig into the numbers,

687
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 2: there's really nothing different about them. They both suck on

688
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 2: offense and are pretty good against the run defensively, DEFENSI

689
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 2: should dominate this game. You know, honestly, it's probably good

690
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 2: under bet as I'm talking about it. I don't even

691
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 2: know what the number is, but it's probably low but

692
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 2: it's probably a good undergame, which also you know, presents

693
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 2: good value on an underdog. But the one area that

694
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 2: stuck out to me the most, as like a very

695
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 2: green against very red, was Charlotte is thirty seventh in

696
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 2: the country in explosiveness on offense. East Carolina is one

697
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty third at defending explosiveness, so especially explosive

698
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 2: on the ground. I just think seven is too many

699
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 2: points for two very similar teams. I don't usually bet underdog,

700
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 2: so I'll probably just bet shout out plus seven. But

701
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 2: I also think plus two twenty five is just way

702
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 2: too much on a money line for these teams that

703
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 2: they both just stink. And if you're giving me two

704
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 2: twenty five on a bad team against a bad team,

705
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 2: it's like, yeah, you know, no one's gonna be surprised

706
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 2: if it wins this game, So give me. Give me

707
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,719
Speaker 2: the fat one here. You took the little small one

708
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 2: like ay as you do, so we'll trade place this

709
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 2: and we'll hope it works.

710
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 1: Forty and a half on that total. By the way, Yeah,

711
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: the only part that I can talk myself into from

712
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 1: a mindset perspective is this is a year zero with Biff,

713
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 1: and he's trying to, you know, build the culture and

714
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 1: kind of get any kind of positivity, and I think

715
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 1: he has a better chance messaging wise to get his

716
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: kids up for a game like this as opposed to ECU,

717
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 1: who had been a perennial Bowl team for years. With

718
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 1: Mike Houston hold Nailors not walking through that door. They're

719
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 1: sitting at what is it one and five right now,

720
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 1: They're not going bowling. So it's easy to look at

721
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 1: it to your credit and say, ah, these these teams

722
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 1: are similar. I'll just go with the home team where

723
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 1: it's like not really. There was one who kind of

724
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 1: figured they'd be in a spot like this, which was

725
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 1: Charlotte as they rebuild, and another team that I'm sure

726
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 1: in terms of this being a rebuilding year and having

727
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 1: new pieces at quarterback and everything else, still thought to themselves,

728
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:08,800
Speaker 1: particularly after that Michigan game. They played hard down the

729
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 1: stretch and it's like, all right, as soon as we

730
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 1: get into conference play, we get out of you know,

731
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:14,359
Speaker 1: these paycheck games, things are going to start going our way.

732
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 1: It hasn't. So from an emotional perspective, I can see

733
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: the value on a team like Charlotte even though, what

734
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:22,799
Speaker 1: exactly what we bank it on here? Just to win

735
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 1: the turnover battle kind of thing like that's essentially.

736
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 2: What we're writing on. Yeah, Finn and Garcia turned the

737
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 2: ball over and Jones hits breaks the big run and

738
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:35,359
Speaker 2: they win seven of them.

739
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 1: All right, we'll close it out here. Were there any games?

740
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 1: It sounds to me like this was kind of a

741
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 1: lean slate for you and this we were squeezing the

742
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,879
Speaker 1: tooth based tube just to get out all the round

743
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: robin picks and some of these money line underdogs. But

744
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: were there any picks on the cutting room floor? Yeah?

745
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 2: You mentioned it. I had New Mexico State against hetap

746
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:58,760
Speaker 2: on Wednesday, and I alsoigne in New Mexico against Tawaii as.

747
00:34:58,640 --> 00:34:59,879
Speaker 1: A short home dog.

748
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,919
Speaker 2: They're why isn't better? But I still don't think they're great,

749
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 2: so I'd still probably have In Mexico a little bit

750
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 2: ahead of them, especially at home. So those are kind

751
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 2: of the only two really I really considered for me

752
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:12,320
Speaker 2: the one.

753
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 1: That I was kind of on, and I didn't pull

754
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 1: the trigger here on the pod just because, I mean,

755
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 1: let's be honest, they've been a freight train just running

756
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,839
Speaker 1: over everybody since moving up to FBS. But how good

757
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 1: is James Madison? Like do we know? Because their schedule

758
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 1: has been really rough in terms, Like they played Bucknell,

759
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 1: they played Virginia, so they got like, you know, an

760
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 1: FCS school and one of the worst FBS teams right

761
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: out of the gate. And yes, they've looked impressive. They

762
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 1: continue to improve. Defensively, they look like a wagon. My

763
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 1: question is offensively, is this smoking mirrors or is this

764
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,880
Speaker 1: truly another Centeo situation where he's just the quarterback whisperer.

765
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 1: He gets these transfer casts offs that nobody else wants

766
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 1: and he turns them into top thirty quarterbacks. A. I

767
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 1: think this is the spot if you don't believe that

768
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 1: j Madison's going to run the table and then get

769
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 1: hosed by the NCAA saying that they can't play in

770
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 1: the title game and everything else. If that's true, you

771
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 1: got to play Marshall plus three and a half once

772
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:12,280
Speaker 1: it's over that hook. Marshall is a team that plays

773
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 1: well at home. They have the upside offensively. I know

774
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 1: they're running into statistically one of the very best run

775
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 1: defenses in the country, But Rashee al Lee is a

776
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: future NFL running back. I don't know if he'll be

777
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 1: a starter in the NFL, he'll definitely he'll probably go

778
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: to the La Rams where, like you know, every other

779
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 1: week they're like, this is our new starting running back.

780
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 1: W'll run for one hundred yards, get hurt, and then

781
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 1: you know, you never hear from him again. I think

782
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,240
Speaker 1: he's like that level where if he gets to the pros,

783
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 1: he gets the right scenario, like he can catch, he

784
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 1: can break big runs, he can move the pile like

785
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 1: he can do it all. So they are going to

786
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: need him to break a Duke's run defense that has

787
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:49,400
Speaker 1: not been broken. But with all that being said, I

788
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 1: think the values there. I think James Masson does drop

789
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 1: a game this year, and I think at the very

790
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 1: least I'll go ahead and take over the key number

791
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 1: of three.

792
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I love Marshall. I'm on their win

793
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 2: total over as you are. I can't do it. I

794
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 2: think James Madison is really really good, and I think

795
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 2: they just are consistently undervalued. I wouldn't play it at

796
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:11,720
Speaker 2: three and a half, but if it dropped to three,

797
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 2: I would consider taking the Dukes. If it dropped two

798
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 2: and a half, I would definitely take James Madison here

799
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 2: I just think, like you said, this run defense is

800
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 2: so good and we haven't seen anyone beat them. As

801
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 2: much as I love rashiin Ali, if James Madison can

802
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 2: slow him down a little bit, he just well still

803
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 2: have not seen Cam Fancher do anything remotely resembling competent

804
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:39,240
Speaker 2: quarterback play that if Ali's taken out of the equation

805
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 2: at all, I don't think Fancher could beat anybody. So

806
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 2: I'm still I just think it's a bad matchup for Marshall,

807
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 2: so I'll I would take the Dukes if it got

808
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 2: under three at three and a half, I probably just

809
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 2: let it ride and hope Marshall wins for our win total.

810
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,359
Speaker 1: Speaking win totals, you come not going to get there.

811
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 1: South Florida half. They seem like a pretty good offense,

812
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 1: and Yukon's not exactly the team to take advantage of

813
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: every bad defense they play. I could maybe see them

814
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 1: in a shootout. I think if I were to play

815
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 1: South Florida laying the points, do the same game, parlay

816
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 1: go over fifty four and a half and lay the points,

817
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 1: I could see them win in like a thirty eight

818
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 1: to thirty one kind of game, just like it gets crazy,

819
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:22,879
Speaker 1: but Yukon same scenario. Like in terms of rationale talking

820
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 1: about fading an ECU team that was a bowl team.

821
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:28,720
Speaker 1: Yukon was a bowl team last year. They had hopes

822
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 1: for another good year and they just they lost their

823
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: full identity on defense. They just can't stop anybody all

824
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 1: of a sudden.

825
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 2: The defense is just not what it was. And like

826
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,439
Speaker 2: you said to the overpoint, I do think Robertson's looked

827
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:42,800
Speaker 2: better over the last week or two. Then, yeah, the

828
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 2: defense is not what we thought it would be.

829
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 1: All right. Our official cutting room floor number there then

830
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: is over fifty four and a half. All right. For

831
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 1: Mike Ianella on Mike Calberry's this has been the Big

832
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 1: Bets on Campus podcast or a group of five deep

833
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 1: dive presented by Bett MGM or minor to our audience

834
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 1: that you can catch Colin stuck for the full rundown.

835
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 1: They usually hit I don't know, sixty seventy games in

836
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 1: a ninety minute window. It's incredible the amount of detail

837
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 1: and depth they get into. That'll drop on Thursday, then

838
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 1: our live show on Saturday, I'll have my G five

839
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 1: best bet of the week, and then their entire show,

840
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 1: their three man weave of Brett McMurphy, Colin Stuckey giving

841
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 1: you all the last minute piece of information line movement,

842
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 1: injury updates, and then for the rest of our programming.

843
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 1: You know, the new BCS has been a really fun

844
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:30,880
Speaker 1: listen on a weekly basis, and on Fridays, Tim Kalanowski

845
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 1: and I the BBOC Tailgate we give out our college

846
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 1: football player props. Continuing to run hot and that department.

847
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 1: Tim k did a great job filling in solo last week.

848
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 1: He went too and one. I'll be back to give

849
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 1: out five picks in total. All right, that's it for us.

850
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: Hopefully this is a great weekend for college football. Hopefully

851
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: for our Penn State futures. They take care of the

852
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 1: Buckeyes in Columbus. I know we don't talk that much

853
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 1: Power five football, but we're on the same page there

854
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:58,359
Speaker 1: in the Action Network family. So enjoy and we'll see

855
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 1: you next week. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

856
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,720
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

857
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

858
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler