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Hello, 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:54.760 They're happy Wednesday and welcome to another episode of the 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:57.080 Chuck Podcast. Let me give you a quick little rundown 0:01:57.120 --> 0:02:02.680 of what to expect in today's full episode. I will 0:02:02.720 --> 0:02:07.640 have an answer to the question that I get more 0:02:07.680 --> 0:02:12.520 often than any other will the midterms happen? But I 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:14.280 want to explain it in such a way that kind 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:16.480 of builds off of what we talked about on Monday. 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:18.799 I will get to that in a minute. My interview 0:02:18.840 --> 0:02:21.600 today is with author David S. Brown. He's got a 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:25.600 great it's a new ish Teddy Roosevelt book out there. 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:32.560 It's called In the Arena, came out last year. Many 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:34.960 of you know, I'm obsessed with the sort of this 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:37.800 fifty year period between eighteen eighty and nineteen thirty in 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:41.240 America because it really feels like we are, you know, 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:46.799 that fifty year period that basically nineteen ninety through where 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:48.960 we are today, that we're kind of living a similar 0:02:49.560 --> 0:02:52.600 time frame. That was a transition from an agrarian economy 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:59.280 to an industrial economy. We had income inequality growing by 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:03.160 leaps in back, and the democracy did something about it, 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:07.880 and Teddy Roosevelt sort of captured the anxiety of those 0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:10.920 moments and he became the sort of the lead figure there. 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:17.040 But what I also find fascinating about Teddy is is 0:03:17.080 --> 0:03:21.399 how often and how much similarities there are, at least 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:26.440 to his personality that are similar to Donald Trump. So 0:03:26.520 --> 0:03:29.360 we get into that, and we get into all things Teddy, 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:33.560 both the era, how much the current era we live 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:36.080 in and the era of sort of Teddy from you know, 0:03:36.200 --> 0:03:42.080 nineteen hundred to nineteen twenty. Is you know that we're 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:44.400 we're in a moment that feels like we need a 0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:47.040 you know, who's going to be the Teddy Roosevelt, right, 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:49.200 Who's going to be the one that says, you know what, 0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:52.920 this is out of hand tech Titans. We've got to 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:57.280 rein you in, so we make a So that's the interview. 0:03:57.280 --> 0:03:59.600 I'll also going to have my top five list, and 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:02.520 this one has to do with thought I'm calling Project 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:06.120 twenty thirty two for the Democratic Party. I'll just leave 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:09.440 that little tease at that, and you'll get an idea 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:11.440 of where I'm going to go with my top five 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:13.520 list on that, and of course we'll take some questions 0:04:14.040 --> 0:04:16.600 and go from there. All right, So let's go back 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:20.360 to the to this exercise I want to do, and 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:23.680 it wants to I want to build on the story 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:25.880 we talked about on Monday, but try to explain why 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:30.800 why it's disappearing, and I'm going to lament why it's 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.360 disappearing because I don't think it should be disappearing, and 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:37.440 try to sort of help you discern which one of 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:40.080 these alarming stories. How much do you worry about Trump's 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:44.240 alarming rhetoric versus his alarming deeds. So look, if you 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:46.080 listen to Monday's episode. You know, I spent a good 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:49.320 chunk of time slowing things down, walking through a story 0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:51.159 that I think is easy to miss in this current 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:55.200 information ecosystem. I knew that this didn't have easy visuals 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:58.760 to show bells and whistles. But what I really believe 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.760 is that this is the worst sort of This is 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:06.000 the worst corruption scandal we've ever had involving an American president. 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:09.320 It's bigger than teapot doma bigger than Watergate. And I know, 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:12.559 because we're so numb to Trump's transactionalism, we just don't 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:16.279 see it right. But that's why I wanted to walk 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:23.360 through the details very deliberately, because it's incredibly important and 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:25.080 it was. Of course, I'm referring to the Wall Street 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:28.640 Journal story, the report about how Sovereign Wealth Fund of 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:32.360 UAE investments into a crypto company that really wasn't going 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:36.520 anywhere for Trump that suddenly became relevant. It led to 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:40.000 a change in America in the United States of America's 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:43.440 policy on AI and chips, and of course led to 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:47.920 a pardon of a very controversial figure in the crypto world. 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:53.880 And all of it happening while Trump was receiving hundreds 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:59.280 of millions of dollars in cash Trump and his family. Now, 0:05:59.279 --> 0:06:03.200 the story didn't have to metic visuals, and it wasn't 0:06:03.240 --> 0:06:06.359 easy to villainize somebody in a moment. It was a 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:09.320 dense it was It's a story that requires some patience 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:13.080 in some ways. As I said, right, you need a 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:16.560 you need to either the whiteboard on a beautiful mind 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:19.600 or clar Danes and Homeland to sort of see how 0:06:19.640 --> 0:06:24.479 everything is connected. And I really believe that it was 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:26.960 the most important story of the weekend and really something 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:30.760 that that should be seen. You know that every congressional 0:06:30.760 --> 0:06:33.480 reporter should be asking every member of Congress about it. Right, 0:06:33.720 --> 0:06:39.520 that type of story to sort of get Congress off 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:43.920 its ass and start worrying about whether presidents are following 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:47.560 the constitution. But then the rest of the then the 0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:51.880 rest of Monday happened. Right, You had the Dan Bongino 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:55.560 podcast that the President did where he mused about federalizing elections, which, 0:06:55.560 --> 0:06:59.839 of course that quick comment coupled with the video footage 0:06:59.839 --> 0:07:03.840 of the bizarre Telsea Gabbard leven FBI rate of Fulton 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:09.000 County in Atlanta with the twenty twenty ballots and boom, Right, 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:12.480 you instantly had a bit viral of a feeding frenzy 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:16.880 on a specific story. You know, by Tuesday morning, you 0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:19.880 wake up and it's Kennedy Senator has been Kennedy Center. 0:07:19.920 --> 0:07:23.600 He's just canceled it, shutting it down for two years. Again, 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:26.200 a shiny metal object story became the lead of the day. 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:27.760 And oh, by the way, the government was shut down, 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:29.920 so we had to reopen that and all of it, 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:33.239 shoving what is the perhaps the biggest scandal in American 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:38.680 history further and further and further down the information ecosystem ladder. 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:45.680 And of course, the sudden burst of rhetorical crazy from 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:49.480 Trump involving the midterms led to a whole bunch of 0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:53.600 questions that I regularly get from both listeners, viewers and 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:58.440 friends and family starting to panic, you know, is going 0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:02.200 to is he going to cancel the midterms? And it 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:04.200 always leads to this, because how anxious should we all 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:07.720 be right now? And you know you can and I 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:11.800 get it right. Are things collapsing? Is this different? Is 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:15.600 Trump actually serious this time? What guardrails are left that 0:08:15.640 --> 0:08:18.720 could stop him on this? So here's what I want 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:22.960 to do. I don't want to hype your anxiety and 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:26.240 I don't want to dismiss it either. What I want 0:08:26.240 --> 0:08:28.840 to try to do is organize it, because one of 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:30.920 the biggest mistakes we make in moments like this is 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:36.240 confusing volume with importance and mistaking what feels scariest for 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:40.320 what's actually doing the most damage. Right. It goes to 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:44.000 the original trope with Trump. You know, right, you know 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:48.000 which is you know, do you take him literally or 0:08:48.040 --> 0:08:50.520 seriously or both? Right? And in this case, what I 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:53.840 would say is should you worry about what he's saying 0:08:54.080 --> 0:08:56.679 or should you worry about what he's doing? Now, of 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:58.880 course I would argue the answer is yes to everything. 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:01.440 And that's what going to get to. So let's start 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:03.960 with the story that everyone understands. Immediately, Donald Trump goes 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:08.000 on a podcast muses again about federalizing elections, which, of course, 0:09:08.320 --> 0:09:10.559 you know, reminds people of him musing about just I 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:13.920 wish I could cancel the midterms, and almost simultaneously, right 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:16.800 when you play that, you have your file footage, right, 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:18.840 So if you see this on video, you could just 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:22.800 show the weird Tulsea Gabbert thing and the striking images 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:26.880 out of Georgia of federal agents executing a raid connected 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:30.960 to election materials from twenty twenty. You know, we're at 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:34.480 nearly six years later. We've had multiple elections in Fulton 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:37.520 County ever since. I mean, I sort of look at 0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:40.400 what he's doing is laughable. I think it's silly, but 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:44.959 it's also very serious. Right, we know he's desperate to 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:55.719 continue to sell this lie that he somehow was illegitimately 0:09:57.080 --> 0:10:01.720 thrown out of office in twenty twenty. So Trump talks 0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:03.560 about overriding elections and then all of a sudden, you 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:07.080 see federal agents seizing ballots. Right, the great fear that 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:10.960 so many people have. So you don't need a constitutional 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:14.560 law degree to fill your stomach drop. That is scary. 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:18.400 Rhetoric plus visuals, threat plus spectacle. It's an easy story 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.240 to tell. It fits in a tweet, it fits in 0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:24.320 a cairn, and it fits in your nervous system, and 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:27.760 it rides the algorithm. Now, let me be very clear, 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:31.040 the rhetoric is not harmless. This isn't normal, and it 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:35.640 shouldn't be normalized. Election interference talk is as damaging as 0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:40.040 election interference itself, and using federal power to intimidate state 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:44.760 workers matters a great deal. So I don't want to 0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:47.280 I'm not trying to minimize what he has said or 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:52.360 what he has done. But here's what I want, I 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:54.320 want you to understand, and I want to make this 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:58.720 clear because it's essential. What feels existential is not always 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:02.400 what's most consequential. So these two events, the rhetoric and 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.400 the raid, landed together. They functioned together, They were consumed 0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:08.800 as one narrative event. It almost doesn't matter which technically 0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:12.280 came first, right, the raid itself or is rhetoric To Bongino, 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:17.520 the meaning formed through proximity and imaging. Right, that's how 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:21.000 political narratives work now, thanks to these algorithms, thanks to 0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:23.840 these big tech companies that control the flow of information 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:26.160 that you and I get to see. Isn't done through 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:30.000 chronology or nuanced but through what shows up next on 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:33.600 your screen. And that's why this story dominates. It feels 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:36.080 like democracy itself is on the line, and it animates 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:39.800 a lot of people. But feeling existential isn't the same 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:42.640 thing as actually being the thing that does the most 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:47.679 lasting damage. Now, let me talk about the Kennedy Center here. 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:51.439 First glance Trump's move to effectively just shut down the 0:11:51.480 --> 0:11:56.040 Kennedy Center unilaterally under the guise of renovations. I see 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:59.960 why some see it as cultural authoritarianism. And symbolically, sure, 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.400 it's pretty ugly, and if fits a broader pattern of 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:07.080 treating institutions as enemies and loyalty tests. But then the 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:09.520 context of all this matters, right, and I think it 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:12.280 tells us something pretty important about how Trump actually operates. 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.520 So why did he shut this down? This wasn't a 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:18.559 first strike, This was a reaction. He was being humiliated right. 0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:22.719 Artists were pulling out, performers were canceling, events were unraveling 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:29.040 quietly but visibly. The reputational damage was happening big time 0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:31.520 for Trump. Right the minute Trump touched the Kennedy Center 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:35.920 got involved. Everybody wanted out. The opera wanted out. People, 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:41.040 every classical, anybody with any level of integrity wanted in. 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:44.640 The art community wanted out. And it was humiliating the 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:53.480 Kennedy Center. It was humiliating Trump. Right. So Trump wasn't 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.360 dominating the story. He was losing control of it. So 0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:58.400 what does he do? This is a classic Trump. He 0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:01.240 flips the script. Instead of having to deal with they're 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:04.439 rejecting me, which is what they are doing, it becomes 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:08.000 I shut it down and instead of absorbing a thousand 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:12.600 small acts of descent, he creates one big spectacle. Instead 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:17.280 of reputational damage accumulating quietly, he centralizes the conflict and 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:20.680 reframes it as Trump versus the culture. Right, it's just 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:25.320 simple spin. Right, And notice what happens when he does that, right? 0:13:25.360 --> 0:13:28.320 The story becomes about Trump's power, Trump's move, Trump's dominance. 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:32.000 Can he do it? Is it legal? The stories of 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:37.160 the cancelations fade, the accountability dissipates, and the noise replaces 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:42.559 the consequence. This matters because it's the same dynamic we're 0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:47.320 seeing everywhere else, which brings me back to Monday. Right. 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:50.280 While George and the Kennedy Center sucked all the oxygen 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:52.960 out of the room early part of this week, the 0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:55.360 story I walked through earlier in the week is already fading. 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:58.960 And that should worry us more because that story, the 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:02.200 fact that Donald Trump has turned America into a kleptocracy 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:09.920 for his personal enrichment, that's the story that ought to 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:13.079 be alarming everybody, because he's already doing it, and he's 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:16.280 already done it. He has taken these payments, he has 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:20.880 enriched himself. This isn't he might he's thinking about he's doing. 0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:27.000 This is stuff he's done, okay, Foreign sovereign wealth flowing 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:31.880 into Trump linked enterprises, policy decisions especially around AI chips 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:39.360 and crypto, suddenly aligning with the private financial financial upside, pardons, permissions, 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:43.920 and access, all moving in parallel. And as I said, 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:45.840 the journal never says it was a quid pro quo. 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:49.240 But all you have to do is look right. The 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:52.240 modern corruption doesn't look like a brown paper bag anymore. 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:56.680 It looks like timing, proximity and mutual benefit. Each step 0:14:56.720 --> 0:15:00.400 defensible on its own and technically legal in some sort 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:04.240 of byzantine way of looking at it, but it is 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:09.240 damning when taken together. And it is illegal when you 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:12.280 realize it's being done by the President of the United States, 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:15.640 and violation of the Constitution. And here's the moment that 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:18.560 really sort of crystallized all this for me. So on 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:23.040 Tuesday morning, I was scanning my usual mountain of newsletters 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:26.720 right by us. You know, lots of good ones out there, 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:28.360 lots of mediocre ones, but I read a lot of 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:32.200 them good faith actors, smart people, outlets that are deeply 0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:36.160 focused on democratic norms. And the foreign policy story was 0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:38.720 gone from a couple of them that I was shocked 0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:41.640 to see it gone from. But the election rhetoric that 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:46.760 was everywhere, the midterm anxiety that was dominant. I mean, 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:49.640 my friend Bill Crystal, who does the Morning Shots newsletter 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:52.200 for The Bulwark on Tuesday, not a single mention of 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:54.520 this Wall Street Journal story anymore. Look, they did a 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:58.320 lot on Monday, but they were obsessed with the midterm 0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:02.320 issue with playbook. Had nothing on that had a slew 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:07.360 on the midterm issue. We all know how how this 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:10.680 stuff right, Some stuff travels more, some stuff rides the 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:15.520 algorithm right, And the way the independent media landscape works, 0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:23.160 a lot of editorial folks examine what's getting attention what isn't, 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:25.520 and they may lean more heavily on the stories that 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:28.200 are getting more traction, even if there are other stories 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:31.520 that are arguably more important. And I'm not calling it. 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:33.800 I don't think that's bad faith. I don't think it's corruption. 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:38.280 But it is sort of how our information ecosystem is 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:40.520 kind of doing exactly what it's designed to do. It 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:44.680 rewards stories that are visually immediate and emotionally legible, and 0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:49.360 quietly pushes aside stories that are technical, slow and complicated. 0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:52.600 It and might not be as gripping to as large 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:58.760 enough of an audience. And that's exactly why the story 0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:03.360 of the of the creation of the American leptocracy is 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:06.240 much more dangerous. So it brings me back to the 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:08.520 anxiety question and something I want to be very clear about. 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:11.199 As alarmed as we all are by some of Trump's 0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:13.560 rhetoric and by the sense that there are no guardrails left, 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:17.800 the truth is a bit more complicated because what's interesting 0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:20.040 is every time we lament this idea that there are 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:24.240 no guardrails, you start to see that some of them 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:28.560 do work, not all of them, not consistently, but some 0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:32.480 of them some of the time. And it's interesting for 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:34.679 us to realize when they do work and when they 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:38.199 don't work. And understanding which ones work and why is 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:41.239 the difference, I think, between whether you should panic and 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:43.439 whether you should view it as some sort of strategy. 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:46.680 So let me give you two examples. First, there's Minneapolis 0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:51.960 after the killing of two Americans, and let's just say 0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:55.159 it took two American deaths for Trump to do this. 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:57.800 Trump did something almost never does rhetorically. He back down, 0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:03.359 He sat down Senate Democrats, he negotiated, he accepted the 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:06.639 premise that they were going to shut down the government 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:12.440 if he didn't negotiate constraints on ice, and he said, okay, right, 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:16.119 here's a guy that his critics consistently say, you know, 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:18.760 doesn't listen to anything, there's no and he did on 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:22.119 this one. So why was it because of norms? No, 0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:24.560 we know he doesn't care about norms. Was it because 0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:29.960 someone made a better constitutional argument to him? Sorry? Or 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:32.960 was it because the political costs suddenly became undeniable even 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:39.919 for Trump? Right? Public opinion has shifted dramatically on this issue. 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:43.399 Republicans got nervous. The backlash wasn't abstract anymore, and it 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:45.800 wasn't just coming from Democrats that owned the Libs. It 0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:50.520 was measurable. And Trump does respond to measurable pain, at 0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:54.960 least political pain in Poland look at the Fed. We 0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:58.280 heard all the noise, the threats, the posturing, and then 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:03.120 the choice came down to picked Kevin Walsh, a conventional, 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:09.240 even market reassuring pick. He didn't pick a sickaphan, a 0:19:09.240 --> 0:19:13.200 guy like Kevin Hassett, who might have been somebody who 0:19:13.200 --> 0:19:17.520 would have just yes, you know, been a yes man 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:20.159 for whatever Trump wanted on interest rates. So why did 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:23.680 he do that? Well, one guardrail. He does seem to 0:19:23.680 --> 0:19:27.880 care about our markets, right, and he cares about what 0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:30.720 some donors think, his donors, and he certainly cares about 0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:33.639 what the elites that he interacts with think. So the 0:19:33.680 --> 0:19:36.399 guardrail wasn't the idea of FED independence. It was the 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:40.199 risk of immediate, tangible financial consequences for him and his friends. 0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:45.520 So it's an interesting pattern that you've watched over. It's like, 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:48.480 every once in a while he responds to a guardrail, 0:19:48.520 --> 0:19:51.880 but it's never that for the reason you want him 0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:54.800 to respond to a guardrail. It's for usually some sort 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:58.640 of personal cost and personal nervousness. So it does seem 0:19:58.680 --> 0:20:01.840 as if Trump accepts push back when when three conditions 0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:05.359 are met. First, the cost is immediate, it's not theoretical, 0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:10.280 it's not long term, it's immediate. Second, the backlash is 0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:15.879 something he sees poll numbers, market drops, donor anger, maybe 0:20:15.880 --> 0:20:19.800 even a ratings issue. Right, It's not an editorial, it's 0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:24.280 not a whole bunch of statements, right. And if the 0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:29.320 pressure is across the board, right, lots of people and 0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:32.600 lots of different parts of his life going hey, are 0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:34.040 you sure about this? Are you sure? About this. Are 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:38.159 you sure about this? Right? It was. It's why he 0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:40.359 seemed to back down a bit on Minneapolis. And I 0:20:40.359 --> 0:20:41.480 know some of you are going to say he hasn't 0:20:41.480 --> 0:20:43.680 back down that much, But for Trump, he's back down. 0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:47.159 Right what happened? You had Republicans saying, oh whoa, well 0:20:47.240 --> 0:20:53.560 this went too far. The same with the FED. But 0:20:53.920 --> 0:20:58.000 all those reasons are also explained why it's so hard 0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:04.600 for the foreign policy monitoration story to get legs. Because 0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:07.840 it fails those three tests, the costs are delayed. We 0:21:07.920 --> 0:21:12.000 won't see the impact of selling out American form policy, 0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:14.800 creating loopholes for China to catch up. We won't know 0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:19.040 this until after it's too late. The consequences are on 0:21:19.080 --> 0:21:22.280 a spreadsheet, and none of us like to read spreadsheets. 0:21:23.440 --> 0:21:26.400 And of course the backlash is a bit fragmented. There's 0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:29.560 no market crash, there's no single dramatic moment, there's no 0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:33.800 image on cable news. Just a slow monetization of power. 0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:37.119 And we see it almost every week when he signs, 0:21:37.520 --> 0:21:39.959 when he releases the list of people he's pardoned, and 0:21:40.000 --> 0:21:41.720 you start to go through it and you realize most 0:21:41.720 --> 0:21:44.280 of them were represented by friends of Trump, and he 0:21:44.440 --> 0:21:50.720 just was monetizing, helping them win fees from these rich crooks. 0:21:54.840 --> 0:21:57.480 And it also explains why I'm less worried about Trump's 0:21:57.680 --> 0:21:59.520 election rhetoric than I am about what he's doing in 0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:04.399 the form. Elections in the United States are decentralized by design. 0:22:04.480 --> 0:22:09.160 States run them, counties administer them. The diffusion isn't a weakness. 0:22:09.160 --> 0:22:14.720 It's actually a firewall. Right. Trump doesn't control it. Republicans 0:22:14.800 --> 0:22:19.200 quietly know he can't override it without detonating their own power. 0:22:20.400 --> 0:22:23.600 They can't do it. They'd have to pass Acts of Congress. 0:22:23.600 --> 0:22:26.680 There's so many different ways in order to make this happen. 0:22:26.720 --> 0:22:30.480 It's for it to happen, the Republican Republic would essentially 0:22:30.480 --> 0:22:35.040 have to collapse. We'd have to suspend the Constitution, and 0:22:35.080 --> 0:22:37.520 we're not. And he doesn't have that kind of power. 0:22:38.560 --> 0:22:42.520 And now, ironically, I think politically, every time Trump muses 0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:47.320 about interfering with elections, he doesn't suppress turnout, which I 0:22:47.359 --> 0:22:49.879 know is of fear some people have. He fuels it. 0:22:51.080 --> 0:22:55.359 He energizes opposition voters, he repels swing voters who just 0:22:55.440 --> 0:22:58.800 want to get rid of the chaos, and he deepened 0:22:58.800 --> 0:23:01.560 cynicism among his own bank so if you were trying 0:23:01.560 --> 0:23:06.679 to design the dumbest possible strategy heading into the midterm election, 0:23:07.320 --> 0:23:09.280 you'd be hard pressed to beat the one Trump is 0:23:09.320 --> 0:23:12.960 doing right now, talk about if you're on the Democratic 0:23:13.000 --> 0:23:15.080 side of the isle, you should want him talking about this. 0:23:15.240 --> 0:23:17.800 All it does is make it saved you money on 0:23:17.880 --> 0:23:20.160 get out the vote. Donald Trump is going to get 0:23:20.160 --> 0:23:22.240 your base out to vote, and then he's sending a 0:23:22.280 --> 0:23:24.960 message that he thinks the whole thing is rigged anyway, 0:23:25.240 --> 0:23:27.080 and he's sending a message to his own base that, 0:23:27.200 --> 0:23:29.600 you know, maybe he's sort of winking and nodding, don't worry, 0:23:29.600 --> 0:23:31.000 I'll rig it, so it doesn't matter. 0:23:31.400 --> 0:23:32.360 They're not going to show up. 0:23:36.000 --> 0:23:38.880 So, yes, the rhetoric's extraordinarily dangerous, and I don't want 0:23:38.880 --> 0:23:44.560 to dismiss it, but it is institutionally constrained and politically 0:23:44.720 --> 0:23:49.840 incredibly self defeating. That's not the case with this foreign 0:23:49.840 --> 0:23:53.800 policy story. Congress is supposed to be the check here. 0:23:53.880 --> 0:23:55.480 The voters are never going to be the check on 0:23:55.520 --> 0:23:57.800 this story. It's going to take him a while to 0:23:57.800 --> 0:24:01.640 get it. This Congress has shown no interest in investigating 0:24:01.680 --> 0:24:05.199 the leader of their own party, so that story is 0:24:05.240 --> 0:24:07.240 just going to keep going he's going to keep selling 0:24:07.280 --> 0:24:12.639 foreign policy decisions to the highest bidder. Sometimes he'll do 0:24:12.680 --> 0:24:17.000 it right out in the open. Sometimes they'll do it quietly. 0:24:17.040 --> 0:24:19.600 I mean times it feels like Venezuela and the oil 0:24:19.720 --> 0:24:21.480 is he's just doing it right out in the open. 0:24:22.880 --> 0:24:26.600 Most of this he'll do out of view. So the 0:24:26.640 --> 0:24:30.640 point is this, No, I don't think the country's collapsing tomorrow, 0:24:33.280 --> 0:24:38.760 and no, I don't think elections are going to get 0:24:38.760 --> 0:24:42.600 canceled twenty twenty six. But I do think we're watching 0:24:42.680 --> 0:24:46.760 something more subtle and more corrosive. Democracies don't usually fall 0:24:47.040 --> 0:24:51.280 from who's they actually erode. They look more like what happened, 0:24:51.720 --> 0:24:55.919 what's happening in Turkey, what's happening in Hungary. They erode 0:24:56.600 --> 0:25:03.440 when corruption becomes complicated, normalized, and easier to ignore than 0:25:03.480 --> 0:25:09.960 the latest outrage, cultural outrage. You know, bad bunny. You know, 0:25:10.440 --> 0:25:12.919 pay attention to bad Bunny, but don't pay attention to 0:25:13.000 --> 0:25:16.919 the selling out of American foreign policy. So what Trump 0:25:16.960 --> 0:25:21.639 does say threatens democracy symbolically, but what Trump does corrodes 0:25:21.640 --> 0:25:27.879 it materially, and our information ecosystem, whether it intends to 0:25:28.040 --> 0:25:32.919 or not, keep steering us towards the loudest, scariest stories, 0:25:33.560 --> 0:25:37.440 while the most consequential ones fade in the background. That's 0:25:37.480 --> 0:25:40.639 the real danger. It's not the panic, it's not the calm. 0:25:40.960 --> 0:25:48.159 It's miss placed attention and mist placed concern. There used 0:25:48.200 --> 0:25:50.200 to be a publication out there that once reminded us 0:25:50.200 --> 0:25:59.160 democracy dies in darkness, but sometimes that darkness is also noisy, 0:25:59.240 --> 0:26:03.360 and the democracy can die in a lot of distraction 0:26:04.119 --> 0:26:09.080 and noise. All right, on that uplifting note, let's sneak 0:26:09.080 --> 0:26:10.560 in a break and when we come back, we're going 0:26:10.640 --> 0:26:13.240 to talk a little Teddy Roosevelt with David S. Brown. 0:26:16.920 --> 0:26:19.520 Do you hate hangovers? We'll say goodbye to hangovers. Out 0:26:19.520 --> 0:26:22.120 of Office gives you the social buzz without the next 0:26:22.160 --> 0:26:24.439 day regret. Their best selling out of Office gummies were 0:26:24.480 --> 0:26:27.359 designed to provide a mild, relaxing buzz, boost your mood, 0:26:27.480 --> 0:26:31.040 and enhance creativity and relaxation. With five different strengths, you 0:26:31.040 --> 0:26:33.280 can tailor the dose to fit your vibe, from a 0:26:33.359 --> 0:26:37.439 gentle one point five milligram micro dose to their newest 0:26:37.520 --> 0:26:41.600 fifteen milligram gummy for a more elevated experience. 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So bring 0:27:17.400 --> 0:27:19.879 on the good vibes and treat yourself to Soul today. 0:27:20.200 --> 0:27:23.640 Right now, Soul is offering my audience thirty percent off 0:27:23.800 --> 0:27:26.560 your entire order. So go to get sold dot com 0:27:26.840 --> 0:27:30.600 use the promo code toodcast. Don't forget that code. That's 0:27:30.680 --> 0:27:39.280 getsold dot com promo code toodcast for thirty percent off. Well, 0:27:39.480 --> 0:27:42.840 you have heard me talk to da that history is rhyming, 0:27:42.880 --> 0:27:47.080 that there's a familiarity in our recent history early twentieth 0:27:47.160 --> 0:27:50.840 century with what the current situation is. We're in a 0:27:51.640 --> 0:27:54.639 we're in a we've got these big tech titans. We 0:27:54.720 --> 0:27:58.400 had the big robber barons. And you've probably heard myself 0:27:58.440 --> 0:28:00.960 another say that, you know, boy, the country really needs 0:28:01.000 --> 0:28:04.080 a Teddy Roosevelt. And what's fascinating about Teddy Roosevelt is 0:28:05.240 --> 0:28:07.480 that he's a rorschach Test. If you're a liberal, you 0:28:07.520 --> 0:28:09.560 love certain parts of him. If you're a conservative, you 0:28:09.600 --> 0:28:12.760 love other parts of him. He is somebody. He is 0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:18.800 like Lincoln in Washington and maybe to a lesser extent, Eisenhower, 0:28:19.400 --> 0:28:23.119 where it's the rare biography you can write, where there 0:28:23.119 --> 0:28:25.760 are interested people on the left and the right, and 0:28:25.800 --> 0:28:27.720 there are people that are devoted to say, no, he's 0:28:27.760 --> 0:28:31.160 really a progressive. No, he's really a conservative. He's a disruptor, 0:28:31.200 --> 0:28:34.920 he's this, and Teddy is definitely one of those. And 0:28:35.000 --> 0:28:38.480 let's just say I devour every Teddy Roosevelt book. I 0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:41.280 think I've only read more Lincoln books than Teddy Roosevelt books. 0:28:41.280 --> 0:28:44.920 He is clearly one of the most fascinating Americans we've 0:28:44.960 --> 0:28:47.360 ever had. My guest today is David Brown. He's got 0:28:48.520 --> 0:28:51.600 one of the more recent additions in the Teddy Roosevelt Library, 0:28:51.640 --> 0:28:54.240 if you will, is called in the arena, which of 0:28:54.280 --> 0:28:59.440 course is a homage to his man in the Arena 0:28:59.640 --> 0:29:04.120 speech back in the day. And this is a it 0:29:04.240 --> 0:29:07.040 is it is not just the Teddy of the Roosevelt 0:29:07.080 --> 0:29:10.440 presidency or the Roosevelt this it really is as much 0:29:10.520 --> 0:29:14.920 an attempt to capture the zeitgeist and the culture that 0:29:15.200 --> 0:29:18.080 was Teddy, that inspired Teddy, and the culture that he 0:29:18.080 --> 0:29:22.800 helped try to create and build. So that's my intro. 0:29:22.960 --> 0:29:25.200 David hod I do mysell in your book pretty well? 0:29:26.000 --> 0:29:26.480 Wonderful? 0:29:26.600 --> 0:29:31.520 Yes, he's a magnet for historians like yourself, right, like 0:29:31.680 --> 0:29:36.680 Teddy is just there's in the only challenge I imagine 0:29:36.720 --> 0:29:42.240 you had was writing something unique that that others hadn't attempted. 0:29:43.080 --> 0:29:47.080 You know, you're right, here's a magnet. Not because not 0:29:47.160 --> 0:29:51.480 just because it's an incredible life. Yeah, really an incredible life, 0:29:52.000 --> 0:29:54.480 but that life it tells us so much about America. 0:29:55.760 --> 0:29:58.040 And I think what I think, what an a story 0:29:58.040 --> 0:30:01.960 and can bring to it, you know, five years from now, 0:30:01.960 --> 0:30:04.760 twenty five years from now is the perspective of the culture. 0:30:05.360 --> 0:30:07.160 And so as you note, you know, there's something of 0:30:07.240 --> 0:30:09.120 the times in this book. You know, it's a life, 0:30:09.120 --> 0:30:13.160 but it's also at times and historians also bring, you know, 0:30:13.280 --> 0:30:18.640 additional perspective. They've seen additional presidents, they've seen people use 0:30:18.680 --> 0:30:22.520 and the used roseults reputation. We might read Roosevelt's actions 0:30:22.680 --> 0:30:27.760 differently in say nineteen fifty or twenty twenty five, then 0:30:27.800 --> 0:30:30.840 we would have in nineteen ten in the moment. So 0:30:30.840 --> 0:30:34.400 in that sense, I think that there's almost always something, 0:30:34.560 --> 0:30:39.000 something fresh, something interesting perspective that the storying can bring 0:30:39.040 --> 0:30:40.080 to a topic. 0:30:40.960 --> 0:30:44.000 How did you tackle this? I mean, there's, like I said, 0:30:44.040 --> 0:30:50.160 there is so much incredible scholarship on Teddy. You know, 0:30:50.520 --> 0:30:54.640 did you go how much core sort of you know, 0:30:54.720 --> 0:30:57.000 back to letters and all of that sort of the 0:30:57.720 --> 0:31:02.600 ground zero type research. How much did you either devour 0:31:02.880 --> 0:31:07.240 or avoid other takes on him? What was your balance? Yeah? 0:31:07.280 --> 0:31:12.960 I read the major biographies, but made notes selectively because 0:31:13.080 --> 0:31:15.960 I didn't want too much of the perspective to sink in, 0:31:16.560 --> 0:31:23.920 And I focused most of my research on Roosevelt's writings, letters, 0:31:25.200 --> 0:31:29.200 journals at the Journal when he was younger, and as 0:31:29.240 --> 0:31:32.080 many many books. He was a voluminous writer. 0:31:32.200 --> 0:31:32.520 He wrote. 0:31:32.560 --> 0:31:38.160 He wrote many books and also the private papers, some 0:31:38.240 --> 0:31:41.240 of the newspapers, the culturea milliear the people who knew him, 0:31:41.520 --> 0:31:44.480 the people who loved him, the people who didn't love him, 0:31:44.640 --> 0:31:47.440 Because I wanted to get a broad sense of the 0:31:47.480 --> 0:31:49.880 man and the times, because I think that the two 0:31:50.640 --> 0:31:51.680 go hand in hand. 0:31:53.120 --> 0:31:57.360 I'm always curious of why an author chooses their subjects, 0:31:57.400 --> 0:32:01.480 and more importantly, when they choose their subjects. Is there 0:32:01.520 --> 0:32:04.920 something that was happening in the moment that made you 0:32:05.040 --> 0:32:07.800 turn there and you realize I want to unpack this, 0:32:07.960 --> 0:32:11.960 tell me walk me through. You've done a few other books, 0:32:13.840 --> 0:32:16.960 and so what drew you to Roosevelt? And when did 0:32:17.000 --> 0:32:18.760 you decide you wanted to tackle Teddy? 0:32:19.400 --> 0:32:22.720 So about twenty or thirteen years ago I started an 0:32:22.840 --> 0:32:26.560 a biography of Henry Adams and Henry Adams from the 0:32:26.560 --> 0:32:31.040 Great Adams family. It was a neighbor of Roosevelt's in Washington. 0:32:31.120 --> 0:32:33.840 Roosevelt was, of course living in a White House, then 0:32:34.040 --> 0:32:37.800 Henry Adams was living well what is now the Hay 0:32:37.840 --> 0:32:38.680 Adams Hotel. 0:32:38.640 --> 0:32:41.160 Right across the street, although I think it's technically the 0:32:41.160 --> 0:32:43.640 building was across the street from the across the bed. Anyway, 0:32:43.800 --> 0:32:46.760 there's some yeah, there's some origin story of the hotel itself, 0:32:46.800 --> 0:32:49.800 but yes, basically right there, Walkable's lists so. 0:32:49.760 --> 0:32:53.440 They knew each other. And Henry Adams was generation older, 0:32:55.040 --> 0:33:00.480 old money, likes her dry wit, somewhat acerbic, and he 0:33:00.600 --> 0:33:05.160 saw not unlike Mark Twain, he saw Roosevelt as something 0:33:05.200 --> 0:33:08.560 of a big boy. Mark Twain said route to someone 0:33:08.640 --> 0:33:12.040 said basically, this is this is, this is Tom Sawyer. 0:33:12.200 --> 0:33:15.520 We have Tom Sawear in the White House. And I 0:33:15.600 --> 0:33:19.920 just found roosevelts excuse me. Adams's take on Roosevelt's so interesting, 0:33:20.000 --> 0:33:23.200 so pungent, so provocative, and it kind of drew me in. 0:33:23.640 --> 0:33:26.200 And also I think writing that biography of Henry Adams, 0:33:26.280 --> 0:33:28.880 it drew me to the late nineteenth century. So I 0:33:28.920 --> 0:33:31.840 was starting my graduate work. I tend to focus on 0:33:32.240 --> 0:33:36.960 America in the early Republic seventeen nineties, eighteen twenty, eighteen thirties, 0:33:37.520 --> 0:33:40.040 and there was a lot there in the late nineteenth century. 0:33:40.040 --> 0:33:44.040 Early wasn't aware of cultural history, intellectual history. So I 0:33:44.160 --> 0:33:47.760 do Henry Adams. I'm thinking there's a lot there about 0:33:47.800 --> 0:33:51.040 intellectual life at that time. Now I'm interested in the politics, 0:33:51.400 --> 0:33:53.960 so i'd obviously read something. You know, some things about 0:33:54.000 --> 0:33:58.920 Roosevelt before, but never systematic, never in depth, And so 0:33:59.000 --> 0:34:01.880 I started to read just my own curiosity and the 0:34:01.920 --> 0:34:04.160 deeper I got into it, the more I said to myself, 0:34:04.160 --> 0:34:06.160 you know what I really want to write on this guy. 0:34:06.160 --> 0:34:08.760 I want to write a biography. So it was deep 0:34:08.760 --> 0:34:12.600 in COVID back in twenty twenty, and that's when I 0:34:12.600 --> 0:34:13.520 started the project. 0:34:14.400 --> 0:34:18.760 What makes Roosevelt so intriguing to me is, like Lincoln 0:34:18.800 --> 0:34:20.759 and Washington, he's a president. And like I said to 0:34:20.800 --> 0:34:26.319 a lesser Eisenhower that anybody running for president, far left 0:34:26.400 --> 0:34:30.640 or far right, moderate, centrist, you name it, would love 0:34:30.719 --> 0:34:38.920 to be compared favorably to said president. Right, And I have, 0:34:39.880 --> 0:34:46.359 I've been having an uncomfortable intellectual exercise which that I've 0:34:46.440 --> 0:34:50.400 and i'm and I'm gonna I'm this is with trepidation 0:34:50.560 --> 0:34:52.560 that I and that I tiptoe on this, which is 0:34:54.080 --> 0:34:58.799 Donald Trump and Teddy Roosevelt and the shocking amount of 0:34:58.800 --> 0:35:02.520 similarities that there are. There are some important differences, and 0:35:02.600 --> 0:35:04.680 if you're a fan of Teddy and not a fan 0:35:04.760 --> 0:35:09.799 of Trump, you probably recoil at this. But you know, 0:35:09.840 --> 0:35:15.240 there's there's there is something about Teddy in the time 0:35:15.320 --> 0:35:20.480 that he served of narcissism, right, I mean the original 0:35:20.520 --> 0:35:23.920 great quote the bride at every wedding, and the and 0:35:23.960 --> 0:35:26.960 the corpse at every funeral was about him, right, you 0:35:26.960 --> 0:35:32.839 know it was it was said of him by his daughter. Right. 0:35:33.960 --> 0:35:37.879 What do you make of it? And how much? How 0:35:37.920 --> 0:35:40.640 much do you see of it? And how did you 0:35:40.719 --> 0:35:42.359 avoid it? How did you write about it? 0:35:42.680 --> 0:35:42.960 Sure know? 0:35:43.040 --> 0:35:44.759 How did it? How did it influence you? 0:35:45.160 --> 0:35:48.359 Sure I make some notes of this late in the book, 0:35:48.920 --> 0:35:54.799 last all pages. The narcissism was there. The question is 0:35:54.840 --> 0:35:58.840 how do you deal with the narcissism? And uh and 0:35:59.040 --> 0:36:02.560 Roosevelt's it was. 0:36:02.560 --> 0:36:03.400 All about Roosevelt. 0:36:03.480 --> 0:36:08.120 But there was this sort of generosity underlying Roosevelt, and 0:36:08.320 --> 0:36:12.160 that generosity I think really drew people to him. Of course, 0:36:12.239 --> 0:36:15.360 Trump has a wide appeal as well. Some of the 0:36:15.360 --> 0:36:18.919 similarities are a tremendous charisma on the part of both men. 0:36:21.120 --> 0:36:25.640 The loyalists, they've really been loyalists for both men. Roosevelt 0:36:25.640 --> 0:36:28.240 had a broader reach. Roosewolt got I think like fifty 0:36:28.280 --> 0:36:31.360 six percent of the popular vote in two thousand. Excuse 0:36:31.400 --> 0:36:32.880 me the nineteen oh four. 0:36:32.960 --> 0:36:35.200 As an important point you made that I didn't fully 0:36:35.200 --> 0:36:37.520 appreciate that it was the It was actually the most 0:36:37.520 --> 0:36:41.800 dominant vote total we'd had really in the with the 0:36:41.840 --> 0:36:43.000 country that big at the time. 0:36:43.440 --> 0:36:46.560 That's right, that's right. So he was really popular. He 0:36:46.600 --> 0:36:49.720 could really cross over. Trump doesn't have the crossover appeal, 0:36:50.680 --> 0:36:56.239 but to the loyalists, they could do no wrong. Roosevelt's 0:36:56.640 --> 0:37:00.960 was seen by party regulars in the GUP as being 0:37:01.200 --> 0:37:05.000 a threat. He was never supposed to be presidents. He 0:37:05.160 --> 0:37:08.080 was a war hero, and they made him a veep, 0:37:08.160 --> 0:37:11.000 and of course McKinley wasn't supposed to get shot and killed. 0:37:11.520 --> 0:37:14.640 But then Rosald becomes presidents and he's so popular that 0:37:15.600 --> 0:37:18.480 they can't do anything with him until Roosevelt decides that 0:37:18.600 --> 0:37:21.360 he's going to leave after a couple of terms and 0:37:21.400 --> 0:37:25.279 then once the crown back, and at that time, for 0:37:25.400 --> 0:37:29.960 GOP regulars, this sort of gave currency to their concerns 0:37:29.960 --> 0:37:32.440 for the last few years that Roosevelt was a maverick, 0:37:32.600 --> 0:37:35.080 he was a loose cannon. He could not be trusted 0:37:35.160 --> 0:37:40.480 for party regularity, and they opposed him, and they were 0:37:40.520 --> 0:37:44.600 able to essentially keep them from getting the nomination in 0:37:44.680 --> 0:37:49.640 nineteen twelve, and in Roosevelt said that this was stolen, 0:37:50.280 --> 0:37:53.560 that the people wanted him, and of course he then 0:37:53.600 --> 0:37:55.759 broke away from the party, which is said that Trump 0:37:55.800 --> 0:37:59.760 had talked about doing in twenty sixty if the GOP 0:38:00.200 --> 0:38:02.759 at that time had kept the nomination from him. 0:38:02.840 --> 0:38:06.920 Don't we credit Teddy with primaries? Essentially that that that 0:38:06.920 --> 0:38:09.400 that that sort of It was right after that that 0:38:09.480 --> 0:38:12.480 we I think Oregon had the first presidential primary. 0:38:12.840 --> 0:38:14.279 There were there were, there were, there were a few, 0:38:14.360 --> 0:38:20.240 and they're about thirteen. But in raise what actually got 0:38:20.280 --> 0:38:27.200 more votes and delegates in these thirteen primaries? Right the 0:38:27.239 --> 0:38:31.040 sitting president did. And there's a number of reasons why 0:38:31.400 --> 0:38:35.480 these these these these primaries would expand, but one was 0:38:35.520 --> 0:38:38.960 that it was seen that that perhaps that people need 0:38:38.960 --> 0:38:41.600 to have more say and we would look back to, 0:38:41.960 --> 0:38:45.680 for example, nineteen twelve and say so, clearly the party 0:38:45.760 --> 0:38:50.680 wanted Taft to get the nomination, but clearly most garden 0:38:50.760 --> 0:38:53.920 variety Republican voters wanted Roosevelt. 0:38:54.920 --> 0:38:57.600 It's obviously the era that I think makes this an 0:38:57.640 --> 0:39:00.680 extra magnet for me right now. And there's always been 0:39:00.680 --> 0:39:03.360 something about Teddy. Did it take a rich guy to 0:39:03.440 --> 0:39:07.359 go after rich guys? Did it? Meaning you know that 0:39:08.480 --> 0:39:15.040 the progressive populist politics of that era only gets traction 0:39:15.160 --> 0:39:18.600 when a rich guy turned on rich guys. That's too simplistic. 0:39:19.719 --> 0:39:22.439 Not necessarily, he was a different kind of rich guy 0:39:23.360 --> 0:39:24.200 like Henry Adams. 0:39:24.400 --> 0:39:28.400 He was old money and inherited inherited well, which is 0:39:28.440 --> 0:39:31.960 always important. I always find it fascinating. I track, I 0:39:32.080 --> 0:39:35.960 love to see right now where billionaires go right, new 0:39:36.000 --> 0:39:42.000 billionaires support Trump. Inherited billionaires support the left right now. 0:39:42.080 --> 0:39:44.400 It's just an interesting era that we're in. 0:39:44.520 --> 0:39:49.440 Yeah, it is. Yeah. So Roosevelt did not like new money. 0:39:50.080 --> 0:39:53.560 Roosevelt thought that that new money was essentially, you know, 0:39:54.160 --> 0:39:57.600 building factories and whatnot, which he recognized the country needed 0:39:57.600 --> 0:40:00.279 if it was going to be strong. But and his 0:40:00.400 --> 0:40:04.440 notion of the string of his life sitting in office 0:40:04.440 --> 0:40:07.719 all day just making money, there was nothing romantic, There 0:40:07.719 --> 0:40:11.440 was nothing important about that. It's going to lead to 0:40:11.480 --> 0:40:17.719 the country becoming soft and not sharp any longer. So 0:40:18.280 --> 0:40:20.800 he did feel I think, when he called, for example, 0:40:21.239 --> 0:40:25.040 JP Morgan into the White House, that there was a 0:40:25.160 --> 0:40:31.120 sense of superiority on his side in reading, in culture 0:40:31.560 --> 0:40:34.680 and background. And if Morgan had a bit more money, 0:40:34.680 --> 0:40:38.000 which of course he did, that was okay because Roosevelt 0:40:38.040 --> 0:40:41.000 had had some money too. But more important, I think 0:40:41.040 --> 0:40:45.480 I think Roosevelt thought that he Roosevelt understood how money 0:40:45.800 --> 0:40:49.480 should be used, and people like this new rich They 0:40:49.640 --> 0:40:52.080 liked imagination. They didn't know what was best for the country. 0:40:52.400 --> 0:40:55.960 They only understood what was best for themselves. 0:40:56.200 --> 0:41:02.440 Why do you think he had this this sense because 0:41:02.520 --> 0:41:06.560 I mean, is it because he went on his travels 0:41:06.640 --> 0:41:10.120 or you know, he did seem to at least understand 0:41:11.000 --> 0:41:15.720 you couldn't concentrate this much power in the in in 0:41:15.719 --> 0:41:20.840 in with these the titans of that era. But was 0:41:20.880 --> 0:41:23.920 his motivation because he didn't want them stronger than the government, 0:41:24.080 --> 0:41:28.120 or was his motivation because the little guy was getting hurt? 0:41:28.760 --> 0:41:29.840 I use all those things. 0:41:30.800 --> 0:41:31.000 You know. 0:41:31.719 --> 0:41:34.120 He never called himself a populous and there was a 0:41:34.120 --> 0:41:38.000 populist party at that time, is a gram farmers, and 0:41:38.000 --> 0:41:40.960 he thought that they were just radical and vaguely ridiculous. 0:41:41.160 --> 0:41:44.960 But there was a populistic bone in Roosevelt. He wrote 0:41:45.000 --> 0:41:49.560 to John Hey, the Secretary of State, after he Roosevelt 0:41:49.600 --> 0:41:52.720 had toured the country, and he said, you know, seeing 0:41:52.760 --> 0:41:56.160 these these common people out there who were standing in 0:41:56.280 --> 0:41:58.160 you know, by a train stession for two hours in 0:41:58.200 --> 0:42:01.960 the wintertime, you know, waiting to and we talk. Uh, 0:42:02.080 --> 0:42:04.920 they're so sincere. There's so they're such hard workers. You know, 0:42:04.960 --> 0:42:06.399 we we we need to we need to do right 0:42:06.440 --> 0:42:09.399 by these people. He did believe that, he did believe 0:42:09.400 --> 0:42:12.680 that he that the presidency, that the government had a 0:42:12.680 --> 0:42:16.279 responsibility the people. So there was something also, I think 0:42:16.320 --> 0:42:18.560 a little bit of old money about that, the sense 0:42:18.600 --> 0:42:24.040 of paternalism where they're they're social work economic betters so called, 0:42:24.280 --> 0:42:27.279 and we need to take care of them. That's our obligation. 0:42:28.880 --> 0:42:32.440 Also though when when he's thinking about obtaining the trusts. 0:42:32.920 --> 0:42:35.719 But I think I think there's something about Roosevelt that 0:42:36.239 --> 0:42:41.080 is vaguely consulted, that that these that these titans, that 0:42:41.120 --> 0:42:44.960 they should have so much just because they invented something 0:42:45.360 --> 0:42:48.640 or they have a factory, and why should they have 0:42:49.440 --> 0:42:53.560 so much say in our politics? Why should why should 0:42:53.560 --> 0:42:56.640 they be able to put politicians in their pockets through 0:42:56.719 --> 0:42:59.600 through through lobbying. So I think he sincerely saw them 0:43:00.239 --> 0:43:03.719 something of a potential thread to the Republic in a 0:43:03.719 --> 0:43:07.200 different way, but not unlike say Jefferson with the First 0:43:07.280 --> 0:43:11.680 National Bank and Jackson with the Second National Bank, looking 0:43:11.719 --> 0:43:16.040 at money congealing together and saying, if this continues, this 0:43:16.080 --> 0:43:18.920 could be a real problem for the Republic moving forward. 0:43:20.200 --> 0:43:26.120 So let's let let's do this intellectual exercise. What would 0:43:26.160 --> 0:43:31.759 Teddy be doing right now with the aim like with 0:43:31.800 --> 0:43:34.719 the with the with with the AI technology that we're 0:43:34.719 --> 0:43:38.879 trying to build, the infrastructure and the concentration of wealth 0:43:38.880 --> 0:43:40.160 that we're experiencing at the moment. 0:43:40.920 --> 0:43:45.000 I think if it was President's with AI, he would 0:43:45.000 --> 0:43:47.920 want to harness AI. He would he would want to 0:43:48.040 --> 0:43:51.400 use it to make you know, as America as powerful 0:43:51.760 --> 0:43:55.080 as possible. That would also tie him with the second 0:43:55.120 --> 0:43:58.120 part of your question, because so these people who have 0:43:58.239 --> 0:44:04.840 this this this this resource, some of the billionaires, I 0:44:04.920 --> 0:44:07.560 suspect that he would look upon them not unlike he 0:44:07.840 --> 0:44:11.879 looked upon the rich class of his own day, which 0:44:11.920 --> 0:44:15.160 is they have a purpose. The purpose is to continue 0:44:15.360 --> 0:44:19.560 to be patriotic and contribute to the growing wealth of America. 0:44:19.800 --> 0:44:21.960 And they could have their nice houses and and and 0:44:22.280 --> 0:44:25.440 and and whatnot. But but I think he would draw 0:44:25.480 --> 0:44:29.600 a real line at the kind of influence that these 0:44:29.640 --> 0:44:35.879 people would have. So I wouldn't see him inviting billionaires 0:44:36.440 --> 0:44:38.600 to be in his official cabinet family. 0:44:39.120 --> 0:44:42.240 And yet he's super transactional, particularly in foreign affairs. 0:44:42.320 --> 0:44:50.080 Right, Yes, he's he's savvy. He looks to get things done. 0:44:50.400 --> 0:44:56.400 He wants to build a canal, not not in Panama 0:44:56.400 --> 0:44:58.920 because there's no country in Panama, but there's a province 0:44:59.440 --> 0:45:00.000 in Colombia. 0:45:00.040 --> 0:45:00.480 Huh. 0:45:00.680 --> 0:45:05.080 And when the Colombian Senate sort of bulks a little 0:45:05.120 --> 0:45:07.319 bit on what was supposed to be a done deal, 0:45:07.840 --> 0:45:14.640 then he will essentially, you know, support the independence movement, 0:45:14.680 --> 0:45:17.160 which which would not have succeeded without just. 0:45:17.480 --> 0:45:19.759 Let's just be let you're being a little gentle here. 0:45:19.880 --> 0:45:24.000 He manufactures this movement in this separatist region called Panama 0:45:24.200 --> 0:45:27.279 a little bit. There were certainly some independence people that 0:45:27.320 --> 0:45:32.279 were but it you know, it's it was a pretext, right. 0:45:32.680 --> 0:45:37.520 He samships and he sends men, and they will support 0:45:37.880 --> 0:45:40.600 and in a sense, it's it's what John F. Kennedy 0:45:41.840 --> 0:45:43.799 tried and failed to do with. 0:45:45.520 --> 0:45:45.719 Uh. 0:45:45.800 --> 0:45:49.759 Yeah, the uh, the Cubans they the quote unquote lead it. 0:45:49.800 --> 0:45:51.799 But but but there was American support, but there wasn't 0:45:51.840 --> 0:45:54.640 enough American support. Rose, I'm sure that there was that 0:45:54.680 --> 0:45:58.279 there was more than enough American support. So you're right, 0:45:58.880 --> 0:46:01.759 this is this is trans is actual here. He's very 0:46:01.760 --> 0:46:04.319 happy to play both with Columbia. 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This is where 0:47:57.040 --> 0:48:03.239 you know, when you look deeper at rule Roosevelt's sort 0:48:03.239 --> 0:48:07.719 of point of view and actions in the Western hemisphere, 0:48:08.239 --> 0:48:11.040 the actually pale in comparisons to Trump's beltic. 0:48:12.840 --> 0:48:16.319 You know, it was a different time, and so it's 0:48:16.320 --> 0:48:22.319 a period when that type of American imperialism, the so 0:48:22.440 --> 0:48:25.359 called Banana Republic era, is just beginning to take off. 0:48:25.840 --> 0:48:29.960 We had this early phase of American form policy, you know, 0:48:30.560 --> 0:48:34.839 Ceptain American Revolution, we're very Atlantic facing. And then you know, 0:48:35.000 --> 0:48:36.920 by the time you get to the eighteen twenties, thirties 0:48:36.920 --> 0:48:41.920 and forties and you're talking about bringing Florida and Texas 0:48:42.480 --> 0:48:47.800 into the Union. Then we become a golf golf of Mexico, 0:48:47.840 --> 0:48:49.920 golf of America, depends on who you talk to these days. 0:48:50.520 --> 0:48:54.600 That becomes the focus of our foreign policy, and then 0:48:54.640 --> 0:48:58.759 American it becomes this beginning of a global power in 0:48:58.800 --> 0:49:04.000 the late nineteenth century with with with the acquisition Philippines 0:49:04.040 --> 0:49:11.200 and whatnot. So the Central in South America had always 0:49:11.239 --> 0:49:15.840 been sort of an abstraction. There was the Mono doctrine, 0:49:16.000 --> 0:49:18.279 but America didn't really have much power to police that. 0:49:18.920 --> 0:49:22.000 There were there were there were various individual filibuster attempts 0:49:22.440 --> 0:49:26.480 by American citizens with armies and whatnot private, although some 0:49:26.560 --> 0:49:31.960 were sort of okay by congressman senators to cut out 0:49:32.000 --> 0:49:37.240 parts of Central and South America. It's really not until 0:49:37.920 --> 0:49:40.560 about nineteen hundred. It's all through the nineteenth century. 0:49:40.600 --> 0:49:44.400 I mean, look, there's a whole part in the Grant 0:49:44.440 --> 0:49:48.440 Presidency where there's where a bunch of Republicans want Canada 0:49:48.520 --> 0:49:52.000 as reparations for the UK's for Britain's role in the 0:49:53.920 --> 0:49:56.440 in the Civil War. Sure too. I mean like it 0:49:56.480 --> 0:49:59.480 seems like we had all sorts of ambitions to grab 0:49:59.520 --> 0:50:02.520 parts of the Western hemisphere in the nineteenth century, right. 0:50:02.480 --> 0:50:07.520 Yeah, And I got about one third of Mexico. So 0:50:08.000 --> 0:50:10.839 with with Roosevelt, and I'd also extend this to look 0:50:10.880 --> 0:50:15.319 at Woodrow Wilson. There then is is I think, I 0:50:15.360 --> 0:50:20.080 think more over not simply using filibusters or threads, but 0:50:20.200 --> 0:50:24.320 actually you know, going into countries and and and putting 0:50:24.719 --> 0:50:28.200 putting some teeth into the Monroe doctrine. 0:50:29.239 --> 0:50:30.640 Well, and that was the thing I mean he almost 0:50:30.680 --> 0:50:34.360 wanted to I mean, it was interesting you used a phrase. 0:50:34.400 --> 0:50:36.279 I think he viewed it as a police you know, 0:50:36.280 --> 0:50:39.960 he wanted to police the governments in the Western hemisphere, 0:50:40.000 --> 0:50:43.560 you know, know what was going on, right, And it 0:50:43.640 --> 0:50:45.640 was almost the first use of the idea that we're 0:50:45.680 --> 0:50:48.600 going to be the global police force. Yeah, you know. 0:50:48.719 --> 0:50:55.319 So I think that there Bracklin Roosevelt related distantly, sort 0:50:55.320 --> 0:50:58.120 of gets the credit for the American century and for 0:50:58.239 --> 0:51:01.200 this notion of when the Second World Wars over, re 0:51:01.360 --> 0:51:04.440 going to the four policemen, you know, sort of take 0:51:04.480 --> 0:51:06.719 care of the world. And I think a lot of 0:51:06.760 --> 0:51:12.040 these ideas, including the social welfare state with the progressive 0:51:12.040 --> 0:51:14.480 here under ro results. I think actually the antecedents are 0:51:14.520 --> 0:51:18.000 there around nineteen five, nineteen ten, and it's a result, 0:51:18.000 --> 0:51:21.480 but it's with the different Roosevelt. And so certainly you 0:51:21.520 --> 0:51:27.080 know Roosevelt have been the top cop in New York 0:51:27.160 --> 0:51:30.800 when he was a commissioner, and he took policing very seriously. 0:51:31.400 --> 0:51:35.640 He applies the concept not just to you know, a 0:51:35.680 --> 0:51:38.359 city or a state, but to an entire country. If 0:51:38.360 --> 0:51:40.439 countries will not live up to the obligations, he said, 0:51:41.280 --> 0:51:45.280 the name must be they must be policed. Of course, 0:51:45.920 --> 0:51:48.200 what we know is happening here also is that there's 0:51:48.560 --> 0:51:51.840 there's a game that's being played by European countries as well, 0:51:52.200 --> 0:51:56.520 which is to get some of these Latin American countries 0:51:57.080 --> 0:52:00.000 into debt and then it would be made to pay 0:52:01.160 --> 0:52:04.800 by for example, leasing a ports, we're opening up markets. 0:52:05.239 --> 0:52:09.080 And Roosevelt was very very quick to ensure that, for 0:52:09.120 --> 0:52:12.680 example Great Britain and in Germany, we're not going to 0:52:12.680 --> 0:52:16.480 be effective doing that, violating the minour doctrine. But it 0:52:16.560 --> 0:52:20.640 was also tactic, as you suggested, that he from time 0:52:20.680 --> 0:52:22.040 to time employed as well. 0:52:23.560 --> 0:52:25.480 I want to go back to his days in New 0:52:25.560 --> 0:52:30.840 York politics, because that was a very machine heavy wing 0:52:30.880 --> 0:52:34.840 of the Republican Party in the eighteen eighties, in the 0:52:34.880 --> 0:52:42.960 eighteen nineties, was he seen as a good party Man 0:52:43.000 --> 0:52:47.560 in the eighteen eighties and nineties because of because he 0:52:47.680 --> 0:52:52.600 was connected to wealthy patrons of Manhattan, or was he 0:52:52.640 --> 0:52:55.080 already being identified as a bit of a disruptor inside 0:52:55.120 --> 0:52:55.520 the party. 0:52:56.080 --> 0:52:58.799 It was always a bit of a disruptor. He was 0:52:58.840 --> 0:53:01.320 connected to wealthy people in New York. But many of 0:53:01.320 --> 0:53:03.640 these wealthy people, including much of the people in his 0:53:03.680 --> 0:53:07.440 graduating class at Harvard, thought he was nuts for getting 0:53:07.440 --> 0:53:11.640 involved in politics, at least politics at the local level. 0:53:12.680 --> 0:53:16.880 If somebody wants to bring you into their cabinet and 0:53:16.920 --> 0:53:19.279 make you Secretary of States, well then what kind of 0:53:19.280 --> 0:53:22.839 a service. But Rosewock came in at the low end, 0:53:23.440 --> 0:53:26.680 and he was questioned about this some of his friends, 0:53:26.840 --> 0:53:29.719 and he said, you know, either either I'm going to 0:53:29.719 --> 0:53:32.319 be part of the willing class or I'm not, and 0:53:32.840 --> 0:53:35.040 I aim to be part of the ruling class. In 0:53:35.080 --> 0:53:38.520 other words, the ruling class had been losing its share 0:53:38.960 --> 0:53:42.279 ever since whenever eighteen under eighteen twenty, eighteen thirty, the 0:53:42.400 --> 0:53:47.880 Patricius right, and so Roosevelt is going to, in effect 0:53:48.160 --> 0:53:54.240 try to reassert that no bless oblige. So in democratic age, 0:53:54.520 --> 0:53:58.840 well you've got to get involved. He gets involved, but 0:53:58.960 --> 0:54:02.879 he was not he was not a great party man. 0:54:04.040 --> 0:54:07.600 There's a maverick. There was a lot of talk in 0:54:07.680 --> 0:54:13.320 eighteen eighty four about the Republican Party's presidential candidate, James G. Blaine, 0:54:13.520 --> 0:54:17.080 as someone had the continental liar from the state of Maine, 0:54:17.440 --> 0:54:23.360 very controversial, reputed to be the dirty politician, had taken bribes, 0:54:24.080 --> 0:54:26.919 and so Roosevelt fought very hard as a young man 0:54:27.360 --> 0:54:29.880 to try to stop that nomination, and of course he 0:54:29.920 --> 0:54:32.480 couldn't at that time, but there was a real question 0:54:33.239 --> 0:54:36.000 would you stay with the party or would you bolt? 0:54:36.560 --> 0:54:39.319 And Rooselt understood that if you bolt it, if he 0:54:39.440 --> 0:54:43.720 was not regular, then he would have really no chance. 0:54:44.440 --> 0:54:45.600 There was no way he was going to become a 0:54:45.600 --> 0:54:48.439 Democrat at that time. The Democrat Party in the North 0:54:48.520 --> 0:54:52.000 was associated with the immigrants, with Irish, in the South 0:54:52.160 --> 0:54:56.560 was associated with secession. And so he swallowed real hard 0:54:57.200 --> 0:55:01.359 and he became a regular politician in eighteen eighty four, 0:55:02.000 --> 0:55:07.759 and he gave campaign speeches on behalf of Blaine. But 0:55:09.360 --> 0:55:12.440 that was of the moment that was opportunistic, and he 0:55:12.640 --> 0:55:15.480 was always free. He thought to go his own way, 0:55:15.719 --> 0:55:16.640 and sometimes he did. 0:55:18.840 --> 0:55:21.040 Maybe this is the fault of some of the educators. 0:55:21.080 --> 0:55:23.799 I have, But I've always tied William Jennings Bryan and 0:55:23.880 --> 0:55:27.080 Roosevelt oddly more together than separate. And yet they were 0:55:27.120 --> 0:55:30.640 on opposing tickets, Right, What did you think of William 0:55:30.719 --> 0:55:31.320 Jennings Bryan. 0:55:31.960 --> 0:55:36.040 So he was not a big Brian fan, probably for 0:55:36.080 --> 0:55:40.040 a few reasons. Some would be political. He just didn't 0:55:40.080 --> 0:55:44.799 like Brian's politics. Brian was a populist. He was also 0:55:44.960 --> 0:55:50.480 a Democrat. Brian was concerned with, for example, enlarging the 0:55:50.480 --> 0:55:54.720 country's money supply with free silver. Roosevelt's on the East coast. 0:55:54.760 --> 0:55:57.920 It's the gold standard all the way. And so Brian 0:55:58.000 --> 0:56:02.319 represents to conservatives. And we were talking earlier about you know, 0:56:02.440 --> 0:56:05.600 sometimes Rooselt's progressive and sometimes he's a conservative. He was 0:56:05.680 --> 0:56:09.880 earing a conservative on Brian, who he thought was just 0:56:09.960 --> 0:56:12.600 you know, this kind of you know, was going to 0:56:12.640 --> 0:56:15.680 make the French Revolution happen in America, was going to 0:56:15.719 --> 0:56:20.360 attack the money supply, and and representing a group, you know, 0:56:20.560 --> 0:56:25.200 American farmers who Roosevelt respected but did not really take 0:56:25.280 --> 0:56:29.840 seriously as as being a part of part of the 0:56:29.920 --> 0:56:32.560 ruling class. They had their place, they should vote, and 0:56:32.719 --> 0:56:37.400 they should have like like Roosevelt. I wonder if Roosevelt. Also, 0:56:38.120 --> 0:56:40.400 you know, we think of Roosevelt being so young, the 0:56:40.440 --> 0:56:44.360 youngest American president, Brian was actually just a little bit younger. 0:56:44.960 --> 0:56:47.600 He was the boy orator. I always wondering if there 0:56:47.640 --> 0:56:50.640 was a part of Roosevelt it was vaguely jealous that 0:56:51.840 --> 0:56:53.880 Roosevelt didn't have a great speaking voice, could get a 0:56:53.880 --> 0:56:58.280 good speech, great speaking voice, and here's Brian, just wonderful. 0:56:58.320 --> 0:57:01.560 He would have been on radio time or television and 0:57:02.000 --> 0:57:04.520 really give a speech. If we know, blind's because this 0:57:04.600 --> 0:57:07.719 cross of gold speech you gave. There wasn't a little 0:57:07.719 --> 0:57:11.120 bit of jealousy that here was this younger man who 0:57:11.160 --> 0:57:13.480 had these qualities that he aspired to have himself. 0:57:14.360 --> 0:57:17.200 You know, by the way, I'm really taken with the 0:57:17.240 --> 0:57:20.880 cover of your book because of the it feels like 0:57:20.920 --> 0:57:24.640 an authentic photo. I'm assuming it's not in that it's colorized. 0:57:24.880 --> 0:57:29.120 It is colorist, right, but it has this just wonderful right. 0:57:30.800 --> 0:57:32.920 And you just brought up something that I think is 0:57:33.760 --> 0:57:35.880 you know, one of the things I like to say 0:57:35.960 --> 0:57:38.000 is you know about certain people that run for president 0:57:38.040 --> 0:57:39.720 in the modern era, boy, they'd have made a great 0:57:39.800 --> 0:57:43.320 nineteenth century president, meaning when you didn't need this sort 0:57:43.320 --> 0:57:48.880 of public oratory or the public charisma, And here's Teddy 0:57:48.960 --> 0:57:52.400 Roosevelt thought of it as this incredibly charismatic president, larger 0:57:52.440 --> 0:57:56.160 than life figure. Would he have been a nobody in 0:57:56.240 --> 0:57:58.280 the TV? The TV era? 0:57:59.120 --> 0:58:03.560 Oh, you know, it's hard to answer because I'm not 0:58:03.600 --> 0:58:05.720 sure how the charisma translates. 0:58:06.080 --> 0:58:06.400 Wow. 0:58:08.200 --> 0:58:15.000 Again, didn't have a great projecting voice, the pond's neck glasses, 0:58:15.280 --> 0:58:20.439 I'm not sure about that. Wasn't a particularly tall man. 0:58:21.280 --> 0:58:24.800 And sometimes you kind of look back at those photographs 0:58:25.000 --> 0:58:28.800 and you see him as a forty year old officer 0:58:28.920 --> 0:58:32.960 in the Spanish American War, and he just doesn't maybe 0:58:33.000 --> 0:58:36.440 maybe look like, I don't know, Douglas MacArthur, you know, with. 0:58:36.920 --> 0:58:38.880 No, he doesn't that right, Yeah, the square job. 0:58:39.720 --> 0:58:41.640 So so it is. It is a real question. 0:58:42.360 --> 0:58:42.560 Uh. 0:58:42.800 --> 0:58:45.280 And I guess to answer your question, I don't know 0:58:45.840 --> 0:58:48.280 if that, if all that would have translated particularly well. 0:58:48.680 --> 0:58:51.080 He was very well read, He was a thoughtful man. 0:58:51.120 --> 0:58:54.000 He was an intellectual one. Is America ever been in 0:58:54.000 --> 0:58:57.840 love with people who have demonstrated intellectual qualities? Uh, that's 0:58:57.880 --> 0:59:01.600 pretty tough to come up with. It's possible though, that 0:59:02.760 --> 0:59:07.160 his argumented the skills and debates would have caught people's eye. 0:59:08.160 --> 0:59:11.360 It's also possible that because people who went to see 0:59:11.400 --> 0:59:13.720 him live they said, wow, you know, there's. 0:59:13.600 --> 0:59:16.960 Good always really good reactions. Right, Yeah, there were, there 0:59:16.960 --> 0:59:18.000 were good reactions there. 0:59:18.120 --> 0:59:20.120 Yeah, So I wouldn't I wouldn't count him out. 0:59:21.960 --> 0:59:26.600 One of the other points you make that I thought, frankly, 0:59:26.640 --> 0:59:27.960 it was one of those I'm my boy, there's a 0:59:27.960 --> 0:59:32.720 whole book in here. Was the how Roosevelt's presidency was 0:59:32.760 --> 0:59:36.280 sort of the first one. You know, Lincoln challenged the 0:59:36.320 --> 0:59:40.520 supremacy of Congress for obvious reasons during the Civil War, 0:59:41.320 --> 0:59:44.640 but the but the sort of the strong presidency versus 0:59:44.640 --> 0:59:48.080 the strong legislative branch. You know, the last time there 0:59:48.120 --> 0:59:49.840 was big fights like that was you had to go 0:59:49.920 --> 0:59:53.080 back to Andrew Jackson, and you were sort of painting 0:59:53.120 --> 0:59:55.520 a picture that Roosevelt in many ways was, you know, 0:59:55.640 --> 0:59:59.640 sort of certainly in the twentieth century, and now in hindsight, 0:59:59.720 --> 1:00:02.640 looks like he laid the groundwork for a strong the 1:00:02.680 --> 1:00:06.120 strong executive that we're now used to today. And in 1:00:06.160 --> 1:00:07.880 many ways he epitomized this. 1:00:08.160 --> 1:00:13.680 Yeah, go ahead, Yeah, it was semi cael an imperial presidency, and. 1:00:13.600 --> 1:00:17.920 It was the big the what realistically really kind of, 1:00:18.160 --> 1:00:22.000 in hindsight, now the first of its kind, right, And. 1:00:23.160 --> 1:00:25.800 I think I think what makes it unique is that 1:00:26.160 --> 1:00:28.959 you mentioned you mentioned Andrew Jackson back in the day, 1:00:29.480 --> 1:00:32.760 and even Lincoln a little bit later. Nobody really had 1:00:32.760 --> 1:00:38.840 the kind of force and power that Roosevelt had. The 1:00:38.880 --> 1:00:44.560 country had obviously grown great development, including industrial development, and 1:00:44.800 --> 1:00:51.800 so Jackson and Lincoln were primarily presidents of groaring republics, 1:00:52.520 --> 1:00:56.400 and Roosevelt was a president of a country that was 1:00:56.440 --> 1:01:01.800 industrializing and that was urbanizing. We just become an overseas 1:01:01.840 --> 1:01:07.920 imperial power. And that means that how the presidency is 1:01:07.960 --> 1:01:12.400 also going to increase. There's more resources, there's a bigger military, 1:01:12.840 --> 1:01:18.160 there's more money available, and this can give someone who's 1:01:18.200 --> 1:01:22.280 interested and not necessarily expand the part of the presidency 1:01:22.960 --> 1:01:25.440 just to do it or to challenge the constitution, but 1:01:25.560 --> 1:01:29.400 to project, say his vision about what America should look like, 1:01:29.480 --> 1:01:31.840 or the fruition of America. If you don't have a 1:01:31.880 --> 1:01:35.600 real strong congress or court system, then with those advantages, 1:01:37.120 --> 1:01:42.240 that president can really push things. And it doesn't come 1:01:42.720 --> 1:01:45.920 just with the times. The individual is also important, because 1:01:45.920 --> 1:01:48.320 we don't talk about McKinley that way. We don't talk 1:01:48.320 --> 1:01:51.200 about William Howard Taff that way, and if talk about 1:01:51.280 --> 1:01:54.560 Wilson that way. Wilson came from a southern state troits tradition. 1:01:55.040 --> 1:01:57.880 What allows Wilson to and somebody's expand the power of 1:01:57.880 --> 1:02:01.360 the presidency. Not unlike Lincoln, he was involved in a 1:02:01.360 --> 1:02:01.840 great war. 1:02:02.480 --> 1:02:06.560 Right. You point out something and I remember this being 1:02:07.120 --> 1:02:09.760 I remember reading something about Bill Clinton feeling this way 1:02:09.800 --> 1:02:13.360 after nine to eleven that he lamented that his presidency 1:02:13.520 --> 1:02:16.600 was too peaceful and too prosperous. Right, Like, he didn't 1:02:17.000 --> 1:02:20.120 he didn't have a moment where he could have made 1:02:20.320 --> 1:02:23.160 history right. You know, there's always the debate, right, do 1:02:23.280 --> 1:02:25.200 the men make the history or just the history make 1:02:25.240 --> 1:02:29.160 the men right? Type of thing. And you write something 1:02:29.200 --> 1:02:32.080 similar about Woodrow Wilson and Teddy Roosevelt that there was 1:02:32.080 --> 1:02:39.000 a jealousy of sorts that Wilson, you know that he 1:02:39.040 --> 1:02:41.280 didn't get a chance to lead. But here's the thing, 1:02:41.360 --> 1:02:43.960 Like he ran for president in nineteen twelve. You know 1:02:44.000 --> 1:02:46.280 he could get elected in nineteen twelve and in theory 1:02:46.400 --> 1:02:49.800 have been president during World War one. Give you know, 1:02:49.880 --> 1:02:52.640 I'm a big fan of alternative histories. That's a that's 1:02:52.640 --> 1:02:57.000 a sliding door. That's not unrealistic. Teddy Roosevelt as president 1:02:57.400 --> 1:03:00.480 at the start of the Great War, there's a America 1:03:00.560 --> 1:03:04.120 get in sooner or later? Or is it just different 1:03:04.160 --> 1:03:07.560 rhetoric but same same basic result. 1:03:08.000 --> 1:03:14.440 I think that he begins to arm the country a 1:03:14.440 --> 1:03:18.240 percadials campaign, I would guess pretty much right away, like 1:03:18.280 --> 1:03:22.360 in late nineteen fourteen, whereas the Wilson administration waited until 1:03:23.120 --> 1:03:30.000 hunting right and I think unless the Germans had sort 1:03:30.000 --> 1:03:34.360 of pulled back on unrestricted some warfare, I mean they did, 1:03:34.680 --> 1:03:38.560 but then by nineteen seventeen they they put it back 1:03:38.600 --> 1:03:43.360 in play. I think Roosevelt I could see a Roosevelt 1:03:43.440 --> 1:03:48.360 administration going to war in nineteen fifteen unless the German 1:03:48.400 --> 1:03:52.200 government recognized this guy's real serious, this guy will do it, 1:03:52.720 --> 1:03:58.160 and then completely, you know, leave the Americans alone. And 1:03:58.200 --> 1:04:01.480 then I wonder in that context if Roosevelt would have 1:04:01.480 --> 1:04:05.400 found ways too, For example, aid the Allies even at 1:04:05.400 --> 1:04:07.640 the United States wasn't part of the Daly cause of 1:04:07.720 --> 1:04:10.280 course you could do so saying we're neutral country and 1:04:10.320 --> 1:04:13.240 we can trade with who we want to. In that sense, 1:04:14.040 --> 1:04:16.080 it would not have been much different than what occurred 1:04:16.120 --> 1:04:19.920 under Wilson's presidency, which is that billions went to the 1:04:19.960 --> 1:04:25.120 Allies and millions went to the Germans. But I think 1:04:25.120 --> 1:04:26.560 we would have been in the war earlier. 1:04:27.640 --> 1:04:31.480 That's my initial instinct when even asking you the question, 1:04:31.640 --> 1:04:36.640 was I assume he gets us in earlier? Is it? 1:04:36.920 --> 1:04:40.600 You know? Do you know does the groundwork for the 1:04:40.680 --> 1:04:44.040 United Nations get laid if there's a Roosevelt presidency in 1:04:44.080 --> 1:04:45.920 the teens rather than a Wilson presidency. 1:04:46.200 --> 1:04:51.520 You know, it's possible, because Roosevelt really came to loathe Wilson, 1:04:52.080 --> 1:04:55.320 and so anything that Wilson proposed, Roosevelt was going to 1:04:56.040 --> 1:04:56.720 argue against it. 1:04:56.960 --> 1:04:59.600 He wasn't alone among conservatives both of that era and 1:04:59.640 --> 1:05:02.640 of today when it comes to Wilson, I guess. 1:05:04.080 --> 1:05:07.280 And and so when when Wilson proposes the League of Nations, 1:05:08.560 --> 1:05:12.880 t R really attacks it. Of course, but one can 1:05:12.920 --> 1:05:16.800 imagine that that Roosevelt would have loved to have had 1:05:17.240 --> 1:05:20.280 the world stage, and if he had been in power, 1:05:20.960 --> 1:05:23.880 one could easily imagine that he would have made some 1:05:23.960 --> 1:05:30.760 proposal for this great, huge crusade which is world peace. Well, actually, 1:05:30.760 --> 1:05:32.480 you know, that's sort of what Wilson was asking for 1:05:32.520 --> 1:05:36.160 the war to end all wars. One can imagine Roosevelt's 1:05:36.280 --> 1:05:41.440 sort of adopting like rhetoric and the like mission. I 1:05:41.640 --> 1:05:44.280 can't remember who it was, but the research one of 1:05:44.680 --> 1:05:49.480 contemporaries said the other thing that really bothered Roosevelt was 1:05:49.520 --> 1:05:53.520 that Wilson was doing things that that Rooselt would have 1:05:53.560 --> 1:05:58.120 loved to have done, including including, uh, go to Congress 1:05:58.520 --> 1:06:00.800 and and give the you know, the State the Union Address, 1:06:00.880 --> 1:06:02.960 which which was just like habitually just sort of like 1:06:03.080 --> 1:06:06.680 delivered this this this big long paper. And now here's 1:06:06.960 --> 1:06:11.120 Wilson going to Congress and delivering it. And of course, 1:06:11.200 --> 1:06:13.280 you know from now once a year that's what we do. 1:06:13.400 --> 1:06:15.959 We sit around our TVs and whatnot, and we've watched 1:06:16.600 --> 1:06:22.200 rallies depending on this, and I think, uh not unlike 1:06:23.240 --> 1:06:26.320 Roosealt's relationship to Brian, there was a little bit of 1:06:26.400 --> 1:06:31.440 jealousy in Roosevelt's reaction, it seems criticism to Wilson. 1:06:40.400 --> 1:06:42.800 Part of the reason I think the presidency had a 1:06:42.920 --> 1:06:45.520 chance to sort of dominate Congress, as Congress was pretty 1:06:45.520 --> 1:06:49.280 evenly divided. That was another mark of similarity between the 1:06:49.320 --> 1:06:51.640 era we live in now in the air then, is 1:06:51.680 --> 1:06:53.680 that we were in the middle of a political realignment 1:06:53.680 --> 1:06:56.440 back then. We just didn't fully realize that. You know, 1:06:56.680 --> 1:07:00.600 that's the beauty of historians like yourself, right, you can oh, well, 1:07:00.640 --> 1:07:02.720 that was the middle of a political realignment. Well at 1:07:02.720 --> 1:07:05.000 the moment, people didn't realize it, right. I always say 1:07:05.000 --> 1:07:07.400 that about the moment we're living in. Like, you know, 1:07:07.440 --> 1:07:12.320 we think every election is this permanent you know picture 1:07:12.360 --> 1:07:14.320 of a coalition. I mean I watched these people going 1:07:14.520 --> 1:07:17.040 the Trump coalition. It's like, Okay, on one day, Trump 1:07:17.120 --> 1:07:19.400 had these voters and there's a whole bunch of people 1:07:19.480 --> 1:07:21.480 that literally the next day might not have voted that way. 1:07:21.560 --> 1:07:24.960 Like a This is a more fluid situation than we 1:07:25.000 --> 1:07:29.320 give it credit for. But as you went through and 1:07:29.360 --> 1:07:32.560 writing this book, you know, how much did it echo 1:07:32.640 --> 1:07:36.160 with the current era? In your mind as you were writing. 1:07:37.520 --> 1:07:41.200 You know, I think back to nineteen hundred nineteen five, 1:07:42.160 --> 1:07:47.560 anxiety about where the country's moving, anxiety about form policy. 1:07:48.640 --> 1:07:52.560 We were just entering a phase where we're going to 1:07:52.560 --> 1:07:57.560 become an imperial power, which seems to contradict our history, right. 1:07:57.600 --> 1:08:00.000 I mean, the United States was born in a great 1:08:00.200 --> 1:08:04.000 anti colonial rebellion. We identified ourselves as the world's leader 1:08:04.120 --> 1:08:07.720 against colonization. And now with the war against Spain. You know, 1:08:07.840 --> 1:08:09.880 there's Hawaii, there's the Philippines. 1:08:10.040 --> 1:08:13.080 There's suddenly acquiring territory. And this was quite a This 1:08:13.280 --> 1:08:17.120 was a something we hadn't really done since Mexico, I 1:08:17.160 --> 1:08:18.280 guess exactly. 1:08:18.840 --> 1:08:21.680 And then you know, I'm thinking, you know, we're industrializing, 1:08:22.000 --> 1:08:25.800 there's monopolies, there's a need for reform. This would become 1:08:25.880 --> 1:08:29.360 the progressive era. There's the Populist Party. These farmers in 1:08:29.360 --> 1:08:34.080 the frontier, hitherto the bone and sinew, the backbone of 1:08:34.080 --> 1:08:37.320 the country. The here's the textbooks, the agrarians. If you 1:08:37.320 --> 1:08:39.519 were a president back in their own republic and you 1:08:39.520 --> 1:08:41.360 were listing what you did for a living, you would 1:08:41.439 --> 1:08:44.040 check I was a farmer. Of course, farmers are the 1:08:44.439 --> 1:08:49.320 best people. So the American identity is undergoing a great change. 1:08:49.640 --> 1:08:52.000 Some people would argue of last twenty five years or 1:08:52.080 --> 1:08:57.840 so from policy AI dot com billionaires, the American identity 1:08:58.280 --> 1:09:02.680 is undergoing a great change, and so in times of uncertainty, 1:09:04.080 --> 1:09:09.240 one might rebel against the existing structure. In nineteen you know, 1:09:09.320 --> 1:09:12.240 term the century. It wasn't that that people dumped the 1:09:12.280 --> 1:09:16.280 Republican Party, but in a sense and latched under Roosevelt. 1:09:16.920 --> 1:09:20.880 They latched onto a maverick within the party who was 1:09:20.960 --> 1:09:24.280 never within the good graces of the party's old guard. 1:09:24.760 --> 1:09:30.360 One could say that Trump is a transactional Republican and 1:09:30.640 --> 1:09:32.640 was quite willing to go his own way. So he 1:09:32.720 --> 1:09:35.400 said that maybe in twenty sixteen and run a third 1:09:35.400 --> 1:09:38.519 party candidcy, which is what Roosevelt did, And so the 1:09:39.080 --> 1:09:43.800 party sort of, you know, went with him whenever he 1:09:43.880 --> 1:09:46.519 was in power. And when Roosevelt was in power, the 1:09:46.560 --> 1:09:49.360 old guard went with him too. But when Roosevelt left, 1:09:49.760 --> 1:09:51.679 they quickly moved on to Taft. 1:09:52.400 --> 1:09:55.599 So what's the lesson there, because that's fascinating to me too, 1:09:55.680 --> 1:09:58.120 And I feel like the McKinley wing of the party 1:09:58.200 --> 1:10:01.559 took back control of the party by nineteen twenty, right 1:10:01.600 --> 1:10:05.720 and Harding and Coolidge, we're really more Republicans in the 1:10:05.760 --> 1:10:08.479 in the style of your of your McKinley's or or 1:10:09.160 --> 1:10:16.240 your Tafts less so Roosevelt. Is that is that foreshadowing 1:10:16.280 --> 1:10:19.240 what we should expect inside this Republican party as they 1:10:19.240 --> 1:10:20.280 move forward post Rum. 1:10:20.360 --> 1:10:23.000 It's hard to say, because on one hand, there's just 1:10:23.080 --> 1:10:26.400 there's just politics, right sure, and so and so, even 1:10:26.479 --> 1:10:28.800 even if I'm the old guard, you know, and we 1:10:28.880 --> 1:10:32.519 look like we've got control this year, there's there's there's 1:10:32.560 --> 1:10:34.920 elections coming, and if you want to stand power, you 1:10:35.000 --> 1:10:38.040 have to win elections. And so on one hand, it 1:10:38.080 --> 1:10:40.920 would be easy to say, yeah, I can imagine that. 1:10:42.240 --> 1:10:44.559 Uh you know when when when frum scone the cult 1:10:44.600 --> 1:10:49.439 of Chrisma that's there, that the Republican Party is going 1:10:49.479 --> 1:10:53.519 to look quite a bit different. Maybe so perhaps, But 1:10:53.640 --> 1:10:56.679 another hand, you have to win elections, and so what 1:10:56.800 --> 1:11:00.840 are the voters pushing for? What are the voters demanding? 1:11:01.439 --> 1:11:05.040 And in nineteen twenties, you know, even though farmers had 1:11:05.040 --> 1:11:08.320 are difficult, there was a booming stock market, the standard 1:11:08.360 --> 1:11:12.000 living kept increasing, and so they were Republicans who might, 1:11:12.479 --> 1:11:14.519 you know, in their library have a couple of books 1:11:14.520 --> 1:11:18.679 by Roselant, say Roosevelt's Great, Roosevelt's My Hero, and I'm 1:11:18.720 --> 1:11:21.880 supporting the results because I'm voting for Republicans. But really 1:11:21.920 --> 1:11:24.880 they might be supporting a Republican party that was antithetical 1:11:25.120 --> 1:11:28.240 to Roosevelt. They can't necessarily see the difference because it's 1:11:28.240 --> 1:11:31.280 party labels. They're voting the pocketbook. They feel good. 1:11:31.120 --> 1:11:31.679 About this. 1:11:33.080 --> 1:11:36.760 With us, It's not exactly clear where some of these 1:11:36.760 --> 1:11:41.200 Republican voters might go after Trump, and that depends upon 1:11:41.360 --> 1:11:45.920 all kinds of things, the future of the economy, the 1:11:45.960 --> 1:11:48.519 future of how the things that been happening the last year. 1:11:48.640 --> 1:11:52.040 So I'll jacked in play out this year we have 1:11:52.080 --> 1:11:55.960 elections and in you know, three years and moving forward. 1:11:56.520 --> 1:11:59.719 So wow, it's a steal. It's a hard question. 1:11:59.760 --> 1:12:03.639 Man. Well, I'd like to actually spend the next five 1:12:03.720 --> 1:12:05.840 or so minutes here as we wrap up, talking about 1:12:05.880 --> 1:12:10.680 another book you wrote, which has to do with moderates. 1:12:11.640 --> 1:12:13.880 It's called The Vital Center of American Politics from the 1:12:13.880 --> 1:12:18.040 Founding to Today. And I look at these two books, right, 1:12:18.120 --> 1:12:20.040 you wrote about Teddy and you wrote that book, and 1:12:20.080 --> 1:12:23.320 it tells me you sort of which is why, frankly, 1:12:23.360 --> 1:12:26.000 I was why I wanted you on, because I sort 1:12:26.040 --> 1:12:29.040 of I always say I'm not a liberal or conservative. 1:12:29.040 --> 1:12:32.880 I'm an incrementalist, and that I'm a believer that ultimately, 1:12:33.240 --> 1:12:37.639 like you know, we have you know, whenever we incrementally move, 1:12:38.680 --> 1:12:43.160 it's on solid footing. It takes you know, and it's incremental, right. 1:12:43.200 --> 1:12:46.519 SOID security is the best example of incrementalism that over 1:12:46.560 --> 1:12:51.000 time takes root and then it becomes something something more permanent. 1:12:51.080 --> 1:12:58.440 To many people. When you view the center of American politics, 1:12:58.439 --> 1:13:00.880 do you view it in terms of the middle ground 1:13:00.920 --> 1:13:03.519 between left and right or do you view it more 1:13:03.560 --> 1:13:06.280 in terms of how I describe, which is it's not 1:13:06.400 --> 1:13:09.800 whether I have some views. I'm very progressive, some views 1:13:09.840 --> 1:13:13.920 I'm very conservative, but ultimately I come down as an incrementalist. 1:13:14.720 --> 1:13:16.519 Some might call that a pragmatist. However you want to 1:13:16.600 --> 1:13:19.800 view it, What do you view as the center of 1:13:19.880 --> 1:13:23.960 American politics? Is it ideological or is it really more 1:13:24.160 --> 1:13:26.000 about how you practice politics? 1:13:26.280 --> 1:13:29.880 I do you tell you practice politics? You could be 1:13:30.200 --> 1:13:33.080 you know, I mean, you know, to be a Democrat 1:13:33.360 --> 1:13:38.160 in nineteen thirty five, it's much different than to be 1:13:38.200 --> 1:13:43.040 a Democrat in twenty twenty five. And the party's origins 1:13:43.040 --> 1:13:47.439 are actually I think the protection institution, slavery, or these 1:13:47.479 --> 1:13:50.160 forms in the seventeen nineties, principally by the efforts of 1:13:50.400 --> 1:13:54.760 Jefferson and Madison. For parties to be successful, they have 1:13:54.800 --> 1:13:59.120 to attract coalitions and people, and so that's where I 1:13:59.160 --> 1:14:03.960 think of moderate, That's where I think of connecting with voters. 1:14:04.520 --> 1:14:06.720 And if you're too far on the right, I think 1:14:06.720 --> 1:14:08.519 if you're too far on the left, you're not gonna 1:14:08.520 --> 1:14:10.920 be able to do that effectively. You'll have your hardcore, 1:14:11.439 --> 1:14:14.640 you know, enough to lose elections respectively. But that's not 1:14:14.680 --> 1:14:18.160 the name of the game. And so, you know, when 1:14:18.200 --> 1:14:20.920 I think of the two major parties and I look 1:14:20.960 --> 1:14:26.840 at some of the rhetoric, I can usually find some 1:14:27.680 --> 1:14:33.080 appeal at a center, and sometimes it's a big appeal, 1:14:33.520 --> 1:14:37.080 and sometimes maybe not. For example, it's not such a 1:14:37.080 --> 1:14:40.600 big appeal. And when I don't see the appeal to 1:14:40.680 --> 1:14:44.439 the center, that gives them suggestion that that party may 1:14:44.479 --> 1:14:48.160 not be very successful in the next selection. 1:14:48.960 --> 1:14:51.439 You know, I answer this question people are I had 1:14:52.080 --> 1:14:55.519 a student in a class I teach currently was asking 1:14:55.520 --> 1:14:59.280 me why the Democrats come across as lashier than the Republicans, 1:15:00.040 --> 1:15:01.760 And to me, it's a matt I always say, well, 1:15:01.800 --> 1:15:05.680 there's your answer is a mathic problem, meaning there are 1:15:05.720 --> 1:15:10.240 more base Republicans and based Democrats, and so the path 1:15:10.320 --> 1:15:13.960 to fifty percent plus one for a Republican allows them 1:15:14.000 --> 1:15:17.000 to be more conservative than the path to fifty percent 1:15:17.000 --> 1:15:19.160 plus one. And this is generically you know, in certain 1:15:19.160 --> 1:15:21.320 places it's blue or and you can you can do this, 1:15:21.640 --> 1:15:25.400 but the Democrats need more of these moderates to get 1:15:25.400 --> 1:15:27.640 to fifty percent plus one. By the way, this was 1:15:27.680 --> 1:15:29.880 reversed right when you and I were growing up in 1:15:29.920 --> 1:15:32.040 the sixty seventies and eighties. You could argue it the 1:15:32.040 --> 1:15:35.360 other way. The Republicans right where they considered more of 1:15:35.439 --> 1:15:38.320 the centrist party, well they didn't. They had a smaller base. 1:15:39.240 --> 1:15:42.080 The Democrats had the larger base, so the Democrats didn't 1:15:42.080 --> 1:15:44.479 have to you know, it always I always was trying 1:15:44.479 --> 1:15:46.200 to tell the student, Look, it's just a numbers game. 1:15:46.680 --> 1:15:48.880 You know. Parties aren't centrists because they want to be 1:15:48.960 --> 1:15:52.759 Parties reach out to the center out of necessity, right, 1:15:52.960 --> 1:16:01.080 not out of so in looking at that, there's clearly 1:16:01.160 --> 1:16:03.840 a vacuum, right, there is a We always say there's 1:16:03.880 --> 1:16:07.400 this vast middle of America, and some of us want 1:16:07.400 --> 1:16:11.240 to believe it's between the thirty yard Lindes. Is it 1:16:11.280 --> 1:16:14.559 is that correct? Or how should we describe the vast 1:16:14.800 --> 1:16:17.400 moderate center of the American electorate? 1:16:17.840 --> 1:16:20.200 You know, I think that's one of the great narratives 1:16:20.320 --> 1:16:23.439 that's been out there for at least the last half century. 1:16:23.600 --> 1:16:27.160 I think back, for example, to Richard Nixon, the Forgotten American. 1:16:28.920 --> 1:16:34.400 So yeah, it's it's it's about recognizing you can't reach 1:16:34.439 --> 1:16:38.640 these people unless you recognize that they're there, that that 1:16:38.680 --> 1:16:42.080 they're not going to automatically vote for you, automatically not 1:16:42.439 --> 1:16:45.160 vote for you. And so I I, you know, I 1:16:45.160 --> 1:16:49.120 look at the hardcore voters on both sides, and what 1:16:49.160 --> 1:16:52.599 always interests me though, is that who's available, who is 1:16:52.640 --> 1:16:56.040 in play, And it seems to me that that's that's 1:16:56.080 --> 1:16:59.720 who you need to go after. That that, to me, 1:16:59.800 --> 1:17:02.559 that's that's the art of politics, which is which is 1:17:02.600 --> 1:17:07.000 building coalitions, big tents. And you obviously have to do 1:17:07.040 --> 1:17:08.760 this because if you if you're in a country our 1:17:08.840 --> 1:17:11.960 size and you only have two major parties, well. 1:17:11.800 --> 1:17:13.559 I think that's the flaw in our system right there, 1:17:13.640 --> 1:17:17.320 is that we're trying. Can you imagine going to a 1:17:17.360 --> 1:17:22.000 clothing store and they're only being small and extra large, 1:17:23.040 --> 1:17:25.800 And that's what we've done to you know. And you know, 1:17:26.800 --> 1:17:29.599 I think people sit there and say, yeah, I'm registered 1:17:29.600 --> 1:17:32.400 as a Republican, but the Republicans don't represent everything I believe. 1:17:32.479 --> 1:17:34.639 Or I'm registered as a Democrat, but the Democrats don't 1:17:34.640 --> 1:17:39.160 represent everything I believe. That if we had, you know, 1:17:39.160 --> 1:17:42.280 if we had more parties and no majority and no 1:17:42.400 --> 1:17:44.200 party had to get a majority to get power, but 1:17:44.240 --> 1:17:46.880 you had to form a coalition. I mean, in some ways, 1:17:46.880 --> 1:17:49.479 I always say both parties are coalitions, are not parties, 1:17:49.920 --> 1:17:53.439 They're coalitions of multiple sub parties. Right, there's a there's 1:17:53.439 --> 1:17:56.960 a Christian Conservative Party, there's a business party, right all 1:17:57.000 --> 1:17:59.040 on the right, there's a progressive you know, you could 1:17:59.120 --> 1:18:03.360 put together your for pieces of each you know, basically 1:18:03.479 --> 1:18:07.040 multiple political parties within this umbrella group called the left 1:18:07.040 --> 1:18:12.040 and the right. You know, look, I will I will admit, well, 1:18:12.040 --> 1:18:14.560 I don't want us to be a parliamentary system. I 1:18:14.880 --> 1:18:19.320 do wish we had a system that allowed for parties 1:18:19.320 --> 1:18:21.559 to be more representative of where people wanted to be. 1:18:21.640 --> 1:18:24.120 But you but you had sort of top four, right, 1:18:24.160 --> 1:18:26.559 we had four major were really I think we're really 1:18:26.600 --> 1:18:29.080 four major political parties stuffed into two. 1:18:29.640 --> 1:18:33.960 Interesting. Yeah, well it's it's obviously it's a very diverse country. 1:18:34.560 --> 1:18:38.479 And I think some of the difficulty in going after 1:18:38.479 --> 1:18:44.840 the center is you don't want to alienate certain coalitions 1:18:44.960 --> 1:18:50.920 within your coach right, and and obviously if you do that, 1:18:51.439 --> 1:18:56.439 there's there's there's the fear of alienation. But you know, 1:18:56.600 --> 1:18:59.040 there's also the question of do you want to government 1:18:59.040 --> 1:19:00.880 from fear? Do you want to do you want to 1:19:01.080 --> 1:19:03.080 try to gain things all the time. So if I 1:19:03.080 --> 1:19:05.479 could do in one more result reference and this guy 1:19:05.520 --> 1:19:08.920 really was a romantic and he wasn't thinking about, you know, 1:19:09.000 --> 1:19:12.320 sort of electoral votes, and he wasn't counting. He was 1:19:12.400 --> 1:19:15.679 really leading from his heart. And maybe this is romantic 1:19:15.760 --> 1:19:17.519 thing to say, but I think if we had more 1:19:17.600 --> 1:19:21.240 of that, I think voters would really resonate to someone 1:19:21.280 --> 1:19:25.559 who they thought was speaking directly to them, was mostly 1:19:25.640 --> 1:19:32.040 sincere and believed that we all had something in stake together. 1:19:32.479 --> 1:19:34.200 It wasn't just reading spreadsheets. 1:19:37.040 --> 1:19:40.479 As a historian, who's a president, we don't have enough 1:19:40.520 --> 1:19:43.360 scholarship on that. You wish people would spend more time 1:19:43.400 --> 1:19:47.360 getting to know deserves the better biography treatment. You know, 1:19:47.600 --> 1:19:50.440 I used to say I felt like Eisenhower was under scholarship. 1:19:50.479 --> 1:19:52.960 Then that's changed, I would argain in the last twenty years, 1:19:52.960 --> 1:19:56.200 we've gotten the proper what I think is a proper 1:19:56.240 --> 1:20:02.160 amount of historians tackling him in different ways, which feel 1:20:02.400 --> 1:20:04.880 there's some people that are overwritten about, like Kennedy, and 1:20:04.960 --> 1:20:06.960 I say this with no disrespect, they just you know, 1:20:07.040 --> 1:20:10.160 I get, I get why what what does it? Because 1:20:10.160 --> 1:20:14.200 of the circumstances of his death. But I'm curious because 1:20:14.240 --> 1:20:15.840 I still actually think there are more things to learn 1:20:15.880 --> 1:20:17.720 about Teddy. So I'm not saying this to say, hey, 1:20:17.960 --> 1:20:19.880 we've written. You know, we've had too much on Teddy. 1:20:20.000 --> 1:20:24.120 I don't agree. I think not enough sometimes still there. 1:20:24.160 --> 1:20:27.480 But who's somebody that he thinks a bit under represented 1:20:27.520 --> 1:20:30.640 in your ranks of the historians? Now you like to 1:20:30.680 --> 1:20:31.400 see tackled? 1:20:31.880 --> 1:20:36.880 Yeah, I sure have to see some aspects of James 1:20:36.920 --> 1:20:40.599 Monroe's presidency looked at more carefully. So this is kind 1:20:40.600 --> 1:20:43.600 of going way back. But you know, he was the 1:20:43.640 --> 1:20:46.360 last president to heurre knee britches, and so we're really 1:20:46.400 --> 1:20:47.360 moving from you. 1:20:47.400 --> 1:20:50.240 Use that phrase, and can I make a confession. When 1:20:50.280 --> 1:20:51.960 you use the phrase the first time, I'm like, what 1:20:52.000 --> 1:20:54.599 the hell are knee britches? So I literally the old 1:20:54.680 --> 1:20:56.080 I hadn't done this in a while. Where I did 1:20:56.080 --> 1:20:57.960 the old? Okay, I gotta I gotta go look up 1:20:57.960 --> 1:21:00.200 what that is. You know, you know when as a kid, 1:21:00.240 --> 1:21:01.840 you know you're reading books that are a little ahead 1:21:01.840 --> 1:21:03.920 of your time, you're constantly doing that. I had done that. 1:21:03.960 --> 1:21:07.040 I was like, neighbor, oh, neighbridges, got it? Okay? 1:21:08.120 --> 1:21:12.599 Sorry, so very eighteenth century. Yes, it is Monroe as 1:21:12.640 --> 1:21:16.559 this transitional figure, right, I mean he was a founder, 1:21:18.280 --> 1:21:19.000 was he was neighbors. 1:21:19.000 --> 1:21:21.439 He was the last founder president, right, I would. 1:21:21.280 --> 1:21:25.240 Say so, yeah, John Quincy Adams follows him. But John 1:21:25.280 --> 1:21:28.080 Quincy Adams was bored in the revolution, right, And we're 1:21:28.120 --> 1:21:33.720 moving into what would be called machine politics, and Monroe 1:21:33.760 --> 1:21:37.120 sort of resisted that. Monroe wanted to push what he 1:21:37.160 --> 1:21:40.559 once called amalgamation politics, which is we need to go 1:21:40.680 --> 1:21:43.839 back to where there are no parties. There's just essentially, 1:21:44.320 --> 1:21:47.240 you know, Americans in governments and we're not fiderlists and 1:21:47.280 --> 1:21:50.200 we're not we're not republicans. We're just all in this together, 1:21:50.600 --> 1:21:53.840 which which looks so antiquated by that time, it's just 1:21:54.160 --> 1:21:57.679 blown out the waters in eighteen twenties. But I'm interested 1:21:57.760 --> 1:22:01.439 in the intellectual history that's there, his readings of you know, 1:22:01.680 --> 1:22:05.840 I Thinkian democracy and the Roman Republic, and you know, 1:22:05.920 --> 1:22:09.720 he was the last chief executive to essentially run you know, 1:22:09.800 --> 1:22:11.960 all by himself. There was there was no one opposed him. 1:22:12.280 --> 1:22:15.280 So there really was that moment of what do you 1:22:15.320 --> 1:22:18.720 call it moderation or the center or consensus that we 1:22:18.760 --> 1:22:20.679 could we could, we could as a country say, yeah, 1:22:20.760 --> 1:22:24.759 you know, we're essentially behind this person. It doesn't last. 1:22:25.720 --> 1:22:27.720 It's interesting, you know Lincoln has that now, but he 1:22:27.760 --> 1:22:31.640 never had it in practice. Right, what's that meaning that 1:22:31.680 --> 1:22:34.240 what you just described that Monroe had this sort of Hey, 1:22:34.240 --> 1:22:37.720 he's representative of all of us. Well, that's right. In hindsight, 1:22:37.800 --> 1:22:41.040 we've decided Lincoln is is an avatar for the for 1:22:41.520 --> 1:22:44.120 who we want America to have been in the nineteenth century, 1:22:44.120 --> 1:22:46.120 and it wasn't what America was, but he's the avatar 1:22:46.160 --> 1:22:49.360 of what we could be. Right, he's America. I think 1:22:49.479 --> 1:22:52.640 FDR is pretty close to achieving that status. Eisenhower, I 1:22:52.640 --> 1:22:56.200 think has that status. But there's not many presidents that 1:22:56.240 --> 1:22:57.280 have that status. 1:22:57.880 --> 1:23:02.120 No, there isn't. Oftentimes it's it's chief executives who are 1:23:02.160 --> 1:23:06.320 associated in some way, shape or form with wars, with 1:23:06.479 --> 1:23:12.080 America's more popular wars, more necessary wars, and and so 1:23:12.360 --> 1:23:13.080 that blups off. 1:23:13.600 --> 1:23:16.360 You made a great case for James Monroe America at 1:23:16.360 --> 1:23:20.480 two fifty. How should the average citizens celebrate. 1:23:22.760 --> 1:23:31.120 I'm part of their country, cognizance of are our successes, 1:23:31.600 --> 1:23:36.200 cognizance of our failures, and to love and respect our 1:23:36.240 --> 1:23:40.160 country enough to look at it wholly and clearly as 1:23:40.280 --> 1:23:44.280 as best we can and to do what we can 1:23:44.680 --> 1:23:51.600 to be good, productive, honest, deliberate, considerate citizens. 1:23:53.760 --> 1:23:57.200 Well, David, I enjoyed it. Uh, you know, look, I'm 1:23:57.200 --> 1:24:01.040 an easy mark. I enjoyed Teddy Roosevelt books. But look, 1:24:01.080 --> 1:24:06.400 you the best history books to read are the ones 1:24:06.439 --> 1:24:08.559 that make you feel like they echo in the moment 1:24:08.600 --> 1:24:11.400 we're currently living in. And I would say that you've 1:24:11.479 --> 1:24:13.479 you've you've done a good job of trying to capture 1:24:14.000 --> 1:24:15.640 you know. I think that's a plus side of a 1:24:15.720 --> 1:24:19.080 history book, right is when it can also it's writing 1:24:19.080 --> 1:24:21.160 about the past, but it's writing about the present. Well. 1:24:21.240 --> 1:24:25.479 Thanks, You know, the historian is objective as objective can be. Us. 1:24:25.560 --> 1:24:28.160 This sources you're you're going to get, You're going to 1:24:28.160 --> 1:24:31.200 get influenced by the times you're living in. It's just inevitable, 1:24:31.280 --> 1:24:32.000 right exactly. 1:24:32.439 --> 1:24:35.479 The history is living is living through the times. 1:24:36.960 --> 1:24:39.759 Well, we need a lot more historians as journalists these days. 1:24:39.920 --> 1:24:44.400 I feel like context and nuances uh falls off too much. 1:24:44.439 --> 1:24:51.320 So I'm glad to surface this and uh, well done. 1:24:51.600 --> 1:24:53.080 It's great to get to know you, David. 1:24:53.200 --> 1:24:54.000 Thanks check. 1:25:04.120 --> 1:25:07.000 One of my favorite historical debates over the next few 1:25:07.040 --> 1:25:13.439 decades is going to be tr and Donald Trump. It 1:25:13.600 --> 1:25:17.400 is sort of where there are similarities and where there 1:25:17.439 --> 1:25:20.720 are differences. And I know my tr lovers are horrified 1:25:21.439 --> 1:25:25.479 that the comparisons get made, but on some of these 1:25:25.600 --> 1:25:29.800 character issues and some of these narcissistic issues, it's hard 1:25:29.840 --> 1:25:33.960 not to see to see some comparisons there. So for 1:25:34.080 --> 1:25:40.120 my top five lists this week, I'm going to the 1:25:40.200 --> 1:25:43.960 Census and a little bit of a riff as there's 1:25:44.000 --> 1:25:46.200 some new census updates went around and there there was 1:25:46.240 --> 1:25:50.160 a new round of panic among Democrats and liberals about 1:25:50.160 --> 1:25:56.719 how the electoral college map in twenty thirty two after 1:25:56.760 --> 1:25:59.920 the twenty thirty census is going to become a disaster 1:26:00.080 --> 1:26:04.720 for the Democrats because the power shift essentially, you know, 1:26:04.760 --> 1:26:09.920 the Democrats. You know, had Kamala Harris simply carried Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, 1:26:12.200 --> 1:26:15.400 and Michigan in addition all the other states she carried, 1:26:15.400 --> 1:26:17.519 she'd have been right at two hundred and seventy By 1:26:17.600 --> 1:26:21.880 twenty thirty two, the same configuration of states would have 1:26:21.920 --> 1:26:24.280 only gotten heard to two hundred and fifty nine electoral votes. 1:26:24.680 --> 1:26:27.560 So basically Democrats in the next census are going to 1:26:27.640 --> 1:26:31.840 lose a dozen base electoral votes, which means the Republican 1:26:31.920 --> 1:26:34.479 floor is going to go up about a dozen votes. 1:26:35.439 --> 1:26:39.920 Just to give you some technical numbers, Essentially, you've got 1:26:40.160 --> 1:26:46.200 Republican states Florida, Texas, Idaho, Utah that collectively are going 1:26:46.280 --> 1:26:52.400 to net anywhere from say ten to twelve congressional districts, 1:26:52.439 --> 1:26:56.080 which means electoral votes. And then you will have a 1:26:56.120 --> 1:26:59.440 bunch of losses in the blue based states. Right, California 1:26:59.800 --> 1:27:02.400 in your collectively are going to lose eight to nine. 1:27:02.960 --> 1:27:05.120 Throw in Illinois's going to lose another two, and then 1:27:05.120 --> 1:27:07.600 you're going to lose one each from Oregon and Minnesota. 1:27:08.080 --> 1:27:09.720 Never mind some of the swing states that you're going 1:27:09.760 --> 1:27:12.720 to see someromp shifts in right, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin each 1:27:12.760 --> 1:27:15.639 lose one, but North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia will each 1:27:15.680 --> 1:27:19.080 gain one. So in that sense, the swing states, the 1:27:19.160 --> 1:27:22.439 numbers are going to be the same, but it is 1:27:22.479 --> 1:27:24.800 going to mean that the Blue wall is not going 1:27:24.840 --> 1:27:27.559 to be the important thing. It's the Sunbelt purple wall 1:27:27.600 --> 1:27:31.080 that's going to matter more. Of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona 1:27:31.200 --> 1:27:34.800 are going to be at least as important, if not 1:27:34.840 --> 1:27:39.760 more important than the trio of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin in Michigan. 1:27:42.200 --> 1:27:45.280 But that's just if you're sitting there, assuming the map 1:27:45.439 --> 1:27:49.600 is what it is. Right, Political parties are supposed to 1:27:49.600 --> 1:27:54.160 be dynamic organizations, and they, based on investments, can can 1:27:54.240 --> 1:27:58.880 try to take a base state from the other party 1:27:58.880 --> 1:28:00.759 and turn it into a swing state. Take a swing 1:28:00.800 --> 1:28:02.880 state and try to turn it into a base state. Right. 1:28:03.200 --> 1:28:06.719 Virginia and Colorado Democrats successfully took what were swing states 1:28:06.720 --> 1:28:10.040 and turn them into base states. Arguably, Republicans Florida and 1:28:10.040 --> 1:28:13.599 Ohio took what was swing states and turned them into 1:28:13.640 --> 1:28:19.760 base states. Right, So political parties, right, you've got right. Now, 1:28:19.800 --> 1:28:22.280 Republicans would love to take a swing state like Minnesota 1:28:22.320 --> 1:28:24.800 and see or a lean blue state like Minnesota and 1:28:24.800 --> 1:28:26.320 see if they can turn it into a swing state. 1:28:26.880 --> 1:28:29.840 Democrats have been amusing about the idea of taking Texas 1:28:30.920 --> 1:28:35.960 and making it a swing state. But now the project 1:28:37.000 --> 1:28:39.719 is more acute than ever for the Democrats. Now, look, 1:28:40.360 --> 1:28:43.439 I'm going to make one tangent real quick because those 1:28:43.479 --> 1:28:46.680 of you that read me closely and listen to me closely, No, 1:28:46.760 --> 1:28:49.800 I'm obsessed that the easiest way to fix this electoral 1:28:50.040 --> 1:28:51.439 You know that one of the ways we need to 1:28:51.479 --> 1:28:56.040 fix the electoral college unfairness is to not have a 1:28:56.080 --> 1:28:59.240 constitutional amendment but simply expand the House to the size 1:28:59.240 --> 1:29:01.439 that the founders and tended it to be. Right, it 1:29:01.520 --> 1:29:04.400 is no longer a representative democracy we have now. We 1:29:04.439 --> 1:29:07.040 now have every congressional districts the size of a major 1:29:07.080 --> 1:29:10.320 city with about eight hundred thousand. They're too big. They 1:29:10.400 --> 1:29:14.519 don't they are not representative of communities of interest anymore. 1:29:14.720 --> 1:29:20.160 They're simply dominated by the most powerful faction within each 1:29:20.200 --> 1:29:22.840 of these congressional districts, and so they're not doing what 1:29:22.880 --> 1:29:27.680 the founders intended. The House of Representatives was supposed to 1:29:27.760 --> 1:29:31.000 expand with the population of the country, and they did 1:29:31.040 --> 1:29:34.479 this every decade until nineteen twenty when there was a 1:29:34.520 --> 1:29:36.519 dispute between the two parties, and then they locked it 1:29:36.520 --> 1:29:39.479 in at four hundred and thirty five. That is now 1:29:39.680 --> 1:29:43.200 why you feel like you live in a congressional district 1:29:43.240 --> 1:29:44.960 likely where you feel like your a member of Congress 1:29:44.960 --> 1:29:48.080 doesn't really represent the district. They either represent to liberal 1:29:48.880 --> 1:29:52.720 part of the district over they sort of overrepresent the 1:29:52.720 --> 1:29:57.559 liberal part or overrepresent the conservative part. But it doesn't 1:29:57.560 --> 1:30:03.120 feel like anybody represents right the district as a whole. 1:30:03.200 --> 1:30:06.400 So I want to set that tangent aside. So if 1:30:06.439 --> 1:30:09.839 you're the DNC and you have leadership that is thinking 1:30:09.880 --> 1:30:12.759 beyond tomorrow, and I don't know if that's the case, 1:30:12.800 --> 1:30:15.120 I say it. I'm not trying to be snarky, but 1:30:15.439 --> 1:30:20.920 you know, leaders of political parties are like general managers 1:30:20.920 --> 1:30:25.639 for sports teams. The fan base expects immediate results. They 1:30:25.640 --> 1:30:28.599 are not interested in you building a foundation that pays 1:30:28.640 --> 1:30:31.880 dividends in eight years, because that general manager won't even 1:30:31.880 --> 1:30:34.760 be there in eight years, just like that political party 1:30:34.800 --> 1:30:36.960 leader won't be there in eight years. So it is 1:30:37.200 --> 1:30:41.240 the incentive structures are messed up. But that doesn't mean 1:30:41.280 --> 1:30:45.240 there aren't other outside entities that should be thinking about 1:30:45.280 --> 1:30:49.040 the following, which is, if the Democrats are suddenly have 1:30:49.400 --> 1:30:53.599 an electoral college majority problem, then they need to design 1:30:53.640 --> 1:30:56.400 what I call a Project twenty to thirty two and 1:30:56.479 --> 1:31:00.439 decide they've got to put eight to ten They've got 1:31:00.479 --> 1:31:04.439 to invest in eight to ten states, and about half 1:31:04.479 --> 1:31:06.679 of them are swing states that they've got to attempt 1:31:06.680 --> 1:31:11.320 to make more reliably blue and or red states that 1:31:11.360 --> 1:31:14.599 they can put into the competitive category. They have got 1:31:14.600 --> 1:31:17.879 to expand the map even though it doesn't look obvious 1:31:18.240 --> 1:31:22.479 that they can expand the map, so that long wind 1:31:22.560 --> 1:31:27.000 up is designed. So if project with twenty thirty two's 1:31:27.040 --> 1:31:30.479 presidential election in mind, with the new map that we'll have, 1:31:30.640 --> 1:31:34.919 then I give you the top five list of states 1:31:35.000 --> 1:31:38.839 that the Democrats should be targeting now in an effort 1:31:40.320 --> 1:31:46.559 to keep them competitive on in the electoral college going forward, 1:31:46.840 --> 1:31:56.880 top top top, because the political power that California and 1:31:56.920 --> 1:32:00.519 New York, that sort of floor of support at times 1:32:00.960 --> 1:32:02.920 made it seem like the electoral college, and this is 1:32:02.920 --> 1:32:05.080 something that always is cyclical. At times it looks like 1:32:05.280 --> 1:32:07.560 there's an advantage to the Democrats, at times looks like 1:32:07.600 --> 1:32:12.360 there's advantage to Republicans. Really it usually is who's winning 1:32:12.400 --> 1:32:16.479 the middle more often, right is and who's got the 1:32:16.600 --> 1:32:18.960 larger base, And right now Republicans have a slightly larger 1:32:19.000 --> 1:32:23.960 base than the Democrats. So with that in mind, I'm 1:32:23.960 --> 1:32:26.560 going to give you my top five lists of states 1:32:27.120 --> 1:32:31.599 that the Democrats have to invest in, either because they 1:32:31.640 --> 1:32:34.600 need to try to make that state more reliably competitive, 1:32:36.720 --> 1:32:38.599 or they need to try to take a state and 1:32:38.680 --> 1:32:41.400 make it competitive in the first place. So number one 1:32:41.400 --> 1:32:43.920 on the list is North Carolina. North Carolina by twenty 1:32:43.960 --> 1:32:47.040 thirty two is likely to be up to seventeen electoral votes. 1:32:48.400 --> 1:32:52.120 It's arguably should you know, it is trending the way 1:32:52.200 --> 1:32:55.400 we've seen with Georgia trending. It is younger, it's a 1:32:55.439 --> 1:32:57.840 bit more diverse, but it hadn't quite tipped yet. Right, 1:32:58.920 --> 1:33:02.360 But it is one of the highest education to growth 1:33:02.439 --> 1:33:06.479 ratios in the state. Right, it's seven percent higher education 1:33:06.560 --> 1:33:09.479 than some of its neighbors. So you know, here they've 1:33:10.360 --> 1:33:14.320 they've got Virginia as a light blue state. Georgia is 1:33:14.360 --> 1:33:18.400 a model here. But North Carolina they have multiple markets. Charlotte, Raleigh, 1:33:18.760 --> 1:33:23.160 Ashville can serve as anchors there. But the bottom line 1:33:23.200 --> 1:33:26.320 is they've they've acted while they are while they're competitive 1:33:26.360 --> 1:33:29.400 in North Carolina, they usually come up short. Right, It's 1:33:29.439 --> 1:33:33.720 sort of what Minnesota has been to the Republicans. And yes, 1:33:33.800 --> 1:33:37.280 Barack Obama carried North Carolina once and in that one 1:33:37.400 --> 1:33:39.280 year they won a Senate seat, and occasionally they win 1:33:39.320 --> 1:33:42.120 Senate seats just like Republicans occasionally win statewide. In Minnesota, 1:33:42.800 --> 1:33:45.320 there seems to be a hard cap of about forty 1:33:45.360 --> 1:33:49.200 eight percent in most federal elections. DIDO in Minnesota for 1:33:49.240 --> 1:33:52.160 the Republicans did oh for that in North Carolina. They've 1:33:52.160 --> 1:33:54.600 got to change that. And North Carolina has been a 1:33:54.640 --> 1:33:57.080 state that they you know, it's always like, was on 1:33:57.160 --> 1:33:59.800 the periphery of targeting in the swing states. Yeah, we're 1:33:59.800 --> 1:34:02.160 gonna to target North Carolina the same way they would say, yeah, 1:34:02.160 --> 1:34:05.360 we might target Florida back in twenty twelve and twenty sixteen, 1:34:05.439 --> 1:34:08.000 and sometimes they didn't. Sometimes they didn't. Now they've got 1:34:08.080 --> 1:34:10.439 to treat North Carolina the same way they treat Wisconsin 1:34:10.520 --> 1:34:13.360 and Michigan. It's got to be that that sort of 1:34:14.240 --> 1:34:17.439 you know, it's got to be treated on another level. 1:34:17.479 --> 1:34:20.439 So that's number one North Carolina. In some ways, I 1:34:20.600 --> 1:34:23.479 don't know if a Democrat's going to get elected president 1:34:23.640 --> 1:34:26.760 without carrying North Carolina and Georgia. At the end of 1:34:26.760 --> 1:34:29.680 the day, you know, when you start to look at 1:34:29.720 --> 1:34:32.920 this in the way trend's going in the demographic makeup 1:34:32.960 --> 1:34:35.400 of the Democratic Party versus what we're seeing in the 1:34:35.439 --> 1:34:40.200 Republican Party aging in smaller populations, I suspect over time, Pennsylvania, 1:34:40.240 --> 1:34:45.040 Wisconsin's going to start drifting right, which means Democrats have 1:34:45.240 --> 1:34:49.080 to figure out how to turn Georgia, Arizona and North 1:34:49.160 --> 1:34:53.600 Carolina collectively into the new Trio into their You know 1:34:53.720 --> 1:34:55.760 that's going to be the new wall, right, It's either 1:34:55.800 --> 1:34:58.439 a red wall for the Republicans that Democrats can't penetrate, 1:34:58.800 --> 1:35:04.000 or becomes the building blocks of a Sunbelt blue wall. 1:35:04.360 --> 1:35:07.360 But either way, the anchor of it is likely North 1:35:07.400 --> 1:35:12.000 Carolina number two on that list, I think of targeting 1:35:12.520 --> 1:35:14.280 is a bit of a reach state, but it's Texas 1:35:16.240 --> 1:35:19.880 Texas more than Florida right now. It's I think the 1:35:19.960 --> 1:35:23.000 trend lines in Florida for some demographic reasons with the 1:35:23.120 --> 1:35:26.080 Latino population. In some ways, I think Hispanics are more 1:35:26.160 --> 1:35:31.000 gettable for Democrats in Texas than Hispanics are in Florida. 1:35:32.439 --> 1:35:36.960 They're more swing voter, swingy swing votery in Texas than 1:35:37.000 --> 1:35:39.320 they are in South Florida. So I think that when 1:35:39.320 --> 1:35:41.559 you start to just look at the numbers, they're there. 1:35:41.960 --> 1:35:44.200 Texas is just getting a lot of new residents and 1:35:44.360 --> 1:35:48.599 any just like how Florida transitioned in the nineties from 1:35:48.720 --> 1:35:52.559 being a fairly reliable Republican state to becoming a swing state. 1:35:53.200 --> 1:35:55.760 First Clinton carried it in ninety six, and then of 1:35:55.800 --> 1:35:58.360 course it became the single most important state in two 1:35:58.400 --> 1:36:03.680 thousand thousand and four. That's the sort of reasoning and 1:36:03.800 --> 1:36:05.840 rationale why Texas has to be a focal point. And 1:36:05.880 --> 1:36:08.960 the fact is, rhetorically, the Democrats have talked about Texas 1:36:09.000 --> 1:36:11.320 for a long time. They've never actually put their money 1:36:11.320 --> 1:36:14.760 where their mouth is. Maybe this year's Senate race, if 1:36:14.760 --> 1:36:17.839 it's indeed competitive, if Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee, 1:36:18.520 --> 1:36:22.200 that jump starts interest in it. But I would argue regardless, 1:36:23.240 --> 1:36:26.200 they have to treat Texas like a swing state even 1:36:26.240 --> 1:36:30.760 when it's not, in order to get that state comfortable 1:36:30.960 --> 1:36:33.680 supporting a Democrat by twenty thirty two. It's not going 1:36:33.760 --> 1:36:35.920 to happen overnight. And that's why it's sort of like 1:36:36.479 --> 1:36:38.840 again I go back, I have. You know, it is 1:36:38.920 --> 1:36:41.519 hard to get political parties to think more than a 1:36:41.640 --> 1:36:45.880 luncheon cycle ahead. That's not how the incentives work. But 1:36:46.000 --> 1:36:50.880 when thinking this far in advance, that's why Texas arguably 1:36:50.960 --> 1:36:52.759 is number two, because it's going to be very expensive, 1:36:52.840 --> 1:36:54.680 and it's going to be and you just got to 1:36:54.680 --> 1:36:57.200 plot along. Number three on my list is the state 1:36:57.240 --> 1:37:00.640 that I talk about all the time that it's a 1:37:00.680 --> 1:37:04.680 head scratcher to me that Democrats really don't focus on it, 1:37:04.720 --> 1:37:10.840 and it's Kansas. It is. We've seen this now two 1:37:10.920 --> 1:37:15.720 different Democrat, two term Democratic governors over the last you know, 1:37:15.880 --> 1:37:18.799 sixteen of the last twenty four years have had Democratic governors, 1:37:19.560 --> 1:37:22.679 and they've won due to Republican overreach, but they've also 1:37:22.760 --> 1:37:25.839 won because you've seen you know, you have a growing 1:37:26.040 --> 1:37:30.120 you know. Look, the biggest sort of deno way to 1:37:30.200 --> 1:37:33.960 find out if a state leans will inherently lean red 1:37:34.280 --> 1:37:37.080 or blue is you know the number of college grads. Well, 1:37:37.560 --> 1:37:40.519 Kansas is one that in Kansas and Missouri are kind 1:37:40.560 --> 1:37:44.120 of going in the opposite directions. You've got the growing 1:37:44.200 --> 1:37:48.519 suburbs of Kansas City in Kansas that have taken have 1:37:48.720 --> 1:37:51.559 basically taken what used to be a lean red district 1:37:51.600 --> 1:37:55.040 and turned it into a lean blue district. Both with 1:37:55.160 --> 1:37:58.439 Chaitan Tipeaka are growing. You've got two big state schools 1:37:58.800 --> 1:38:03.840 in Lauren and in Manhattan, Kansas and Kansas State. And 1:38:04.000 --> 1:38:06.160 so when you look at the sort of formula that 1:38:06.360 --> 1:38:11.479 Democrats have used to succeed in places like Wisconsin or Michigan, 1:38:12.240 --> 1:38:14.720 or let's see smaller states or like Nevada, I could 1:38:18.680 --> 1:38:23.040 I could argue that Kansas looks more like that. Look 1:38:23.080 --> 1:38:27.599 there I get the sort of the historical trends of Kansas, 1:38:29.439 --> 1:38:32.759 but Kansas is not as you know, Yes, there's MAGA 1:38:32.880 --> 1:38:37.640 in Kansas, but there's sort of this Kansas Republican that 1:38:38.040 --> 1:38:42.839 is different than the MAGA makeup as well. Where Missouri. 1:38:43.200 --> 1:38:46.920 You know, it's funny, Missouri feels more like a southern 1:38:47.000 --> 1:38:50.520 state and Kansas feels more like a Midwestern state. And Democrats, 1:38:50.560 --> 1:38:53.400 I think right now have a better shot, particularly among 1:38:53.439 --> 1:38:57.000 white voters in the Kansas winning those folks over than 1:38:57.040 --> 1:39:01.680 they do winning the white voters of number four on 1:39:01.720 --> 1:39:04.240 the list. Very similar argument to North Carolina. It's Georgia. 1:39:05.479 --> 1:39:06.960 Georgia is a state that you know, we're going to 1:39:07.000 --> 1:39:10.160 find out in twenty twenty six just how strong the 1:39:10.200 --> 1:39:14.720 Democratic Party is. Is this a state that just is 1:39:14.840 --> 1:39:17.599 competitive only when they have Rafael Warnock on the ballot, 1:39:18.200 --> 1:39:19.800 or is this a state that is going to be 1:39:19.840 --> 1:39:25.080 competitive now no matter what. And asof winning reelection would 1:39:25.120 --> 1:39:28.160 send one signal, Democrats winning the governor's mansion would send 1:39:28.200 --> 1:39:30.280 another signal. So I think we're going to learn a 1:39:30.360 --> 1:39:32.759 lot about just sort of the health of the Democratic brand. 1:39:33.360 --> 1:39:38.280 How much is this the marginal success Democrats have had 1:39:38.320 --> 1:39:41.439 in Georgia been just because of backlaster Trump or is 1:39:41.520 --> 1:39:44.160 there is this starting to become durable. I think we're 1:39:44.160 --> 1:39:46.280 going to learn, but no matter what, again, because of 1:39:46.320 --> 1:39:51.040 the math issue, right Georgia. When you think about how 1:39:51.120 --> 1:39:55.360 much money and resources over the decades have gone into Michigan, Wisconsin, 1:39:55.400 --> 1:39:58.560 and Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and number five of my 1:39:58.680 --> 1:40:04.080 list Arizona, three the they have to become just core states. 1:40:04.479 --> 1:40:08.320 Arguably now they're as important, if not more important, than 1:40:09.360 --> 1:40:12.240 the blue Wall of the Midwest. It's going to be 1:40:12.320 --> 1:40:15.200 a red wall, a purple wall, or a blue sun 1:40:15.240 --> 1:40:19.000 butt wall either way. So there's that. So three states 1:40:19.000 --> 1:40:21.320 that didn't make my list that I think deserve some 1:40:22.520 --> 1:40:27.200 investment in when you're looking at Project thirty two, Iowa, Indiana, 1:40:28.080 --> 1:40:31.000 in Florida, I think all of them. It's one of 1:40:31.080 --> 1:40:35.720 those where you want to get into a position where 1:40:35.760 --> 1:40:40.759 you're competitive in those states where you have enough because 1:40:40.760 --> 1:40:43.160 you need some buffers. You can't always have to draw this. 1:40:43.600 --> 1:40:47.120 You know the perfect inside straight and you know if 1:40:47.160 --> 1:40:49.240 you want to expand the map for Senate seats, and 1:40:49.280 --> 1:40:51.360 you want to expand the map for more governor's mansions, 1:40:51.800 --> 1:40:56.439 you've got to give yourself buffers and Indiana, Iowa, and Florida, 1:40:57.000 --> 1:41:01.320 in theory, all have enough combiny of metro areas and 1:41:01.400 --> 1:41:09.200 suburban populations in some allergies to MAGA policies that collectively, 1:41:10.000 --> 1:41:13.360 in theory, should give the Democrats opportunity. Now, you know, 1:41:13.439 --> 1:41:18.240 it's interesting the Democrats in this in what should be 1:41:18.680 --> 1:41:20.880 a focal point here Project twenty thirty two. And I'm 1:41:21.080 --> 1:41:23.080 at some point waiting for there to be an organization 1:41:23.200 --> 1:41:25.720 that's spun off just called this, right, you know that 1:41:26.160 --> 1:41:29.920 some big donor decides to fund and just focused on 1:41:30.080 --> 1:41:34.360 voter registration programs things like that is when the Democrats 1:41:34.439 --> 1:41:36.920 decide what the early calendar looks like. And they just 1:41:37.040 --> 1:41:43.200 over the last week greenlit twelve states that plan to 1:41:43.360 --> 1:41:46.879 petition to be in the early primary window for presidential politics. 1:41:48.240 --> 1:41:51.960 If the Democrats are thinking long term, they should be 1:41:52.200 --> 1:41:57.240 thinking about these four states as this decision as an 1:41:57.280 --> 1:42:01.639 opportunity to invest in Project twenty thirty two for them 1:42:02.160 --> 1:42:06.240 how to strengthen their ability to get more a few 1:42:06.320 --> 1:42:10.120 more states in play, expand the map. Right, So I 1:42:10.200 --> 1:42:12.240 wanted to look at their twelve states and see where 1:42:12.240 --> 1:42:17.760 they overlapped with states that perhaps they need to strengthen 1:42:17.840 --> 1:42:20.200 in in order to give keep themselves competitive and a 1:42:20.280 --> 1:42:23.240 presidential by twenty thirty two. So the twelve states they 1:42:23.280 --> 1:42:25.280 put in out of the east, it was Delaware, New Hampshire. 1:42:25.560 --> 1:42:29.080 Out of the midwest, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan. Out of the south, Georgia, 1:42:29.160 --> 1:42:31.880 North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and out of the 1:42:31.920 --> 1:42:37.160 west Nevada and New Mexico. So North Caro and the 1:42:37.240 --> 1:42:41.680 top five lists Georgia and North Carolina overlaps. You know, 1:42:41.840 --> 1:42:44.479 I think on the you know, I've said this before 1:42:44.520 --> 1:42:47.519 in the early state stuff, the bigger the state, the 1:42:47.640 --> 1:42:51.200 more ineffective that state can be at being sort of 1:42:51.280 --> 1:42:54.639 a fair fairness because with the bigger states then rewards 1:42:54.680 --> 1:42:57.400 those with big money. And both Georgia and North Carolina 1:42:57.439 --> 1:43:00.000 are expensive states. So while I think you could argue 1:43:00.240 --> 1:43:04.280 this would this in theory them as early states, having 1:43:04.320 --> 1:43:06.960 more Democrats campaign in them all the time could serve 1:43:07.040 --> 1:43:09.600 to overtime invest them, I don't know if they're the 1:43:09.680 --> 1:43:13.519 best states to create a level playing field for those 1:43:13.640 --> 1:43:15.880 candidates with big money and those candidates that don't have 1:43:16.000 --> 1:43:18.360 big money at the beginning. That would be the two 1:43:18.479 --> 1:43:22.200 negatives right, just very expensive states to advertise in, but 1:43:23.680 --> 1:43:26.559 having them as early states where Democrats are just always 1:43:26.640 --> 1:43:30.479 traveling to those to Georgia or North Carolina. Certainly, I 1:43:30.680 --> 1:43:33.080 think that is why Iowa state in the battle round, 1:43:33.680 --> 1:43:36.240 even though demographically Iowa looks like a state that should 1:43:36.240 --> 1:43:42.080 be darker red than it is. Iowa. Obviously, I think 1:43:42.200 --> 1:43:44.519 this is a way on the smaller state scale. I 1:43:44.680 --> 1:43:47.760 was disappointed to see that either Kansas didn't apply or 1:43:47.800 --> 1:43:50.400 there was no interest. I saw that Nebraska didn't do 1:43:50.520 --> 1:43:52.519 this either. So when you look at it, the only 1:43:53.080 --> 1:43:58.759 viable small states that applied for the early state window 1:43:58.920 --> 1:44:02.000 for the Democratic president primaries with Iowa right. The other 1:44:02.040 --> 1:44:04.880 two in the Midwest or Illinois Michigan again too big, 1:44:05.040 --> 1:44:08.519 too expensive, will only be there to help the big 1:44:08.640 --> 1:44:12.479 name candidates. It doesn't really doesn't really work as a 1:44:12.520 --> 1:44:16.760 good early test where Iowa you have to campaign in 1:44:17.200 --> 1:44:19.320 rural parts of the state in order to win. Versus 1:44:19.400 --> 1:44:21.519 Ellinois Michigan, you don't have to campaign in the rural 1:44:21.560 --> 1:44:24.760 parts of the state in order to win. The most 1:44:24.880 --> 1:44:28.480 interesting state that's on there that's got advanced for consideration 1:44:28.640 --> 1:44:32.160 to be in the early state window is Tennessee and 1:44:32.240 --> 1:44:34.240 I want to close with Tennessee because Tennessee is a 1:44:34.280 --> 1:44:38.120 state that has been a head scratcher to me. Twenty 1:44:38.200 --> 1:44:41.640 years ago, I thought Tennessee was going to go was 1:44:41.720 --> 1:44:45.160 going to be a part of Georgia North Carolina. Right. 1:44:45.200 --> 1:44:46.800 You always said Florida was the first state in the 1:44:46.840 --> 1:44:49.920 sun Belt that became competitive, and then the question was, okay, 1:44:50.600 --> 1:44:52.200 which ones are going to go next? And if you 1:44:52.320 --> 1:44:58.360 went by sort of socioeconomics, where we were seeing more 1:44:59.520 --> 1:45:02.880 people move to write Georgia North Carolina on the list, 1:45:02.960 --> 1:45:06.519 but so is Tennessee and Tennessee is is actually moved 1:45:07.600 --> 1:45:10.599 become more Republican, not less Republican over the last twenty years. 1:45:13.280 --> 1:45:16.960 Is that going to continue? Does the growth of Nashville 1:45:19.760 --> 1:45:23.040 does that sort of the bigger it grows, the more 1:45:23.080 --> 1:45:26.760 it becomes sort of Austin meets Las Vegas, which then 1:45:26.880 --> 1:45:30.519 creates your sort of suburban and you just get more 1:45:30.680 --> 1:45:35.120 non sort of cultural Southerners in your in your electorate. 1:45:36.360 --> 1:45:39.320 It's certainly something that I think a lot a lot 1:45:39.400 --> 1:45:41.519 of US election observers have been waiting to see, and 1:45:41.560 --> 1:45:44.080 there's been very little evidence of it. I mean, you know, 1:45:44.320 --> 1:45:47.920 if this were happening, that Tennessee special in December would 1:45:47.920 --> 1:45:49.880 have would have seen a flip, while we didn't see 1:45:49.880 --> 1:45:51.880 a flip. Right, it was a little bit more competitive, 1:45:52.160 --> 1:45:54.960 but it wasn't necessarily a flip. So, you know, part 1:45:55.000 --> 1:45:56.600 of it is, you could say the election lines. I 1:45:56.680 --> 1:45:59.760 do think Democrats have a Memphis problem in the state. 1:45:59.840 --> 1:46:03.880 Memphis is just it's just it's a city that is 1:46:04.080 --> 1:46:06.360 not as it's not what it was thirty years ago. 1:46:08.640 --> 1:46:12.040 It feels as if and there's this whether it's fair 1:46:12.120 --> 1:46:14.599 or not, this perception, well, it's a Democrat run city 1:46:14.680 --> 1:46:18.320 and it's poorly run and et cetera, et cetera. And 1:46:18.479 --> 1:46:21.800 Republicans have weaponized sort of Memphis a long time to 1:46:21.920 --> 1:46:25.120 win elections. It's been sort of something they've done, been 1:46:25.240 --> 1:46:27.920 sort of a you know, Memphis has been used as 1:46:27.960 --> 1:46:32.960 sort of a code word for race. But when you 1:46:33.040 --> 1:46:37.800 look at the elector in Tennessee, you know the I 1:46:37.960 --> 1:46:40.680 know that if I if I were a strategist over 1:46:41.000 --> 1:46:44.120 at the DNC, I'd be thinking, you know, yeah, Tennessee's 1:46:44.120 --> 1:46:47.080 a reach state, but here's the state that that is 1:46:47.800 --> 1:46:50.280 that's got something in common with Virginia, something in common 1:46:50.320 --> 1:46:55.080 with North Carolina. You know, maybe more resources into the 1:46:55.160 --> 1:47:01.760 state opened some doors here. I found of all the 1:47:02.120 --> 1:47:03.640 of all the states that made it through in the 1:47:03.720 --> 1:47:06.280 top twelve, the one that you know, which one of 1:47:06.360 --> 1:47:09.720 these is not like the other, It was Tennessee. But 1:47:09.840 --> 1:47:12.200 I'll tell you if you if you went back thirty years, 1:47:12.439 --> 1:47:15.679 a lot of US election forecasters would have said Tennessee 1:47:15.840 --> 1:47:17.639 was one of the states that we expected to start 1:47:18.320 --> 1:47:20.479 to sort of I think a lot of people saw 1:47:20.520 --> 1:47:22.479 the South sort of splitting into sort of you know, 1:47:22.600 --> 1:47:25.840 the South more Cosmopolitans south of quote New South, right, 1:47:26.320 --> 1:47:28.760 and the sort of old South, deep South, however you 1:47:28.800 --> 1:47:31.000 want to describe it. And there was a you know, 1:47:31.120 --> 1:47:33.879 you had sort of your your Tennessee, your North Carolina, 1:47:33.920 --> 1:47:37.200 your Georgia, You're Virginia in one area, Florida in one area, 1:47:37.280 --> 1:47:43.400 and then you're Alabama, your Mississippi, You're Louisiana, South Carolina 1:47:44.680 --> 1:47:49.439 in another area. So it is mostly broken along those lines, 1:47:49.520 --> 1:47:53.760 but not totally. In Tennessee has been interesting. I know, 1:47:53.880 --> 1:47:55.599 my friend Brad Todd has a lot of theories there. 1:47:55.600 --> 1:47:59.920 He thinks that that Tennessee Republicans have benefited from a 1:48:00.160 --> 1:48:04.160 lot of Midwestern refugees, if you will, sort of Midwestern 1:48:04.240 --> 1:48:10.200 conservatives who have left the higher tax states of Ohio, Illinois, 1:48:10.360 --> 1:48:13.200 Michigan and have not moved all the way south, but 1:48:13.320 --> 1:48:17.599 moved to Tennessee, a low income tax state. So he says, 1:48:17.640 --> 1:48:18.880 one of the ways you notice it is if you 1:48:18.920 --> 1:48:20.920 go in the suburbs some of these suburban communities in 1:48:21.000 --> 1:48:24.880 Nashville on a fall Saturday, you don't see Tennessee flex. 1:48:25.520 --> 1:48:29.280 He goes, you see a lot of Ohio, State, Michigan, Purdue, 1:48:29.800 --> 1:48:36.400 Indiana flex. So that's been It's an interesting anecdote. I 1:48:36.439 --> 1:48:40.400 think it's one worth processing. But the reality is this 1:48:40.640 --> 1:48:44.400 Democrats have a major problem on their hands come twenty 1:48:44.479 --> 1:48:47.040 thirty two, and if they start worrying about it in 1:48:47.080 --> 1:48:49.120 twenty thirty one, it's going to be too late. So 1:48:49.160 --> 1:48:51.320 if they're going to launch Project twenty thirty two, now, 1:48:52.439 --> 1:48:54.120 let me go through it again. The five states. They 1:48:54.160 --> 1:48:58.639 should be focusing on North Carolina, basically the sun Belt, 1:48:59.240 --> 1:49:03.360 Purple Wall of North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, and then 1:49:03.439 --> 1:49:05.759 i'd throw in Texas and Kansas. They've got to expand 1:49:05.800 --> 1:49:10.400 their map, and then maybe you dabble in Indiana, Iowa, 1:49:10.600 --> 1:49:13.760 and Florida. And then of course we'll see what they 1:49:13.840 --> 1:49:18.519 do about Tennessee. But if the party doesn't start thinking 1:49:18.640 --> 1:49:22.160 that way, they could get locked out of the presidency 1:49:22.280 --> 1:49:26.280 for a generation. That's how dire this population shift is 1:49:27.160 --> 1:49:38.599 from California, New York to Florida and Texas. Ask Chuck, 1:49:41.400 --> 1:49:43.160 all right, let's do a little last chuck before we 1:49:43.200 --> 1:49:44.720 get out of here. I think I'm going to try 1:49:44.760 --> 1:49:48.880 to do six of them today, so let's keep me honest. 1:49:49.040 --> 1:49:52.360 Number one. This came from Brian from New England. He says, Hey, 1:49:52.400 --> 1:49:54.240 it's been about a year since you announced your departure 1:49:54.280 --> 1:49:59.640 from NBC. Yes, it is feels like it feels like 1:49:59.680 --> 1:50:02.680 a de but anyway, I imagine you're happy with the move. 1:50:02.800 --> 1:50:04.759 Was there a moment that made you realize going independent 1:50:04.880 --> 1:50:06.599 was the right call? Or had you just done everything 1:50:06.600 --> 1:50:08.719 you set up to? Two in a broadcast? Any regrets 1:50:08.800 --> 1:50:10.840 or roles you wish you'd tried, like foreign correspondent or 1:50:10.880 --> 1:50:13.559 local politics, and any future plans you can tease, maybe 1:50:13.600 --> 1:50:16.439 a check sports cast. Thanks Brian from New England. Well, 1:50:17.439 --> 1:50:19.280 there is a fun little sports project I'm working on. 1:50:19.400 --> 1:50:23.200 I'll have more details soon ish. Partnering with somebody that 1:50:23.960 --> 1:50:26.400 is probably very familiar to many of you in the 1:50:26.439 --> 1:50:28.920 sports space. I'm looking forward to it, but it sort 1:50:28.920 --> 1:50:32.320 of combines my love for sports in history. So I 1:50:32.400 --> 1:50:34.559 will throw that out there and leave that out there 1:50:34.560 --> 1:50:37.040 as a tease for you, but it's something that should 1:50:37.080 --> 1:50:39.200 be come into fruition in the next four to six weeks. 1:50:40.160 --> 1:50:47.040 On that front, Look, I have, I have no regrets. 1:50:47.160 --> 1:50:49.840 Miss I missed the collaboration. I miss some of my 1:50:50.000 --> 1:50:55.320 friends in colleagues. I ache currently for my longtime friend 1:50:55.360 --> 1:51:01.000 Savannah got three, who's going through just the worst, the 1:51:01.080 --> 1:51:02.280 worst experience imaginable. 1:51:03.600 --> 1:51:03.720 Right. 1:51:04.160 --> 1:51:05.920 You know, something happens to your parents and your kids 1:51:05.960 --> 1:51:12.320 and they're just there's there's no there's no consoling that, 1:51:14.760 --> 1:51:18.479 and it's just heartbreaking. I know Savannah's mother a little bit. 1:51:18.920 --> 1:51:23.960 I love Nancy. She's just terrific. I hope by the 1:51:24.000 --> 1:51:28.720 time you hear this, she's home safe. So moments like this, 1:51:29.360 --> 1:51:34.360 you know, I miss, I miss just miss being able 1:51:34.439 --> 1:51:36.600 to be a be a friend on that. But I 1:51:36.640 --> 1:51:37.800 can always be a friend. I don't have to be 1:51:37.840 --> 1:51:40.639 an NBC to do that. But I'm just in pain 1:51:40.800 --> 1:51:45.600 for that, you know I have. When you go on 1:51:45.680 --> 1:51:49.880 the regret front, you know, some of my regrets. I 1:51:50.000 --> 1:52:00.160 I it's not really regrets. It's sort of like, I, uh, 1:52:01.479 --> 1:52:04.040 I leaned in, I should have jumped into certain to 1:52:04.200 --> 1:52:08.800 certain things, right. But I honestly, I'm pretty proud of 1:52:08.840 --> 1:52:11.000 my work. I think it's aging. I think it's aging 1:52:11.120 --> 1:52:14.760 very well, so in that sense, And frankly, I feel 1:52:14.800 --> 1:52:17.400 like I got out at the time, just before everybody 1:52:17.439 --> 1:52:20.760 else was being shoved out because of what's happening with 1:52:20.880 --> 1:52:24.920 corporate ownership of media. So in some ways I feel 1:52:24.960 --> 1:52:28.040 lucky to be in the independent space before it was cool. 1:52:29.720 --> 1:52:34.559 I feel lucky to get this opportunity to help really 1:52:34.680 --> 1:52:38.840 talented friends and former colleagues jump into these waters. As 1:52:38.880 --> 1:52:40.679 I say, it's a big cliff dive, but I promise 1:52:40.720 --> 1:52:51.840 you there's water there. And you know, I you know, 1:52:51.920 --> 1:52:54.360 when you look back and realize this moment that we're 1:52:54.400 --> 1:52:58.320 in with corporate owned media, I don't know. I think 1:52:58.640 --> 1:53:00.680 I think I was able to maximize everything that was 1:53:00.760 --> 1:53:04.800 possible under that situation. And you know, that was as 1:53:04.840 --> 1:53:07.560 I was talking with an old friend yesterday. Actually we 1:53:07.680 --> 1:53:11.200 were doing a little catching up and reminiscing and lamenting 1:53:11.680 --> 1:53:16.160 about what's happening to our friend's mom, And you know, 1:53:16.520 --> 1:53:19.280 He put it as like, you know, it's so different 1:53:19.439 --> 1:53:25.000 now that it's it's not even the same thing I worked. 1:53:25.360 --> 1:53:29.680 I don't recognize this network. I say, it is. No. 1:53:30.280 --> 1:53:33.160 This not me dissing them. It's just totally different, right, 1:53:33.240 --> 1:53:37.080 the separation from the there's no cable channel anymore. They basically, 1:53:37.400 --> 1:53:42.600 you know, just reimagined. Right, there's a real shrinkage of 1:53:42.640 --> 1:53:45.760 what NBC News is. And you know, I don't I 1:53:45.880 --> 1:53:50.880 know this. I wouldn't be happy under this circumstance, but 1:53:52.040 --> 1:53:54.920 you know, I wore the jersey, so I still root 1:53:55.000 --> 1:53:58.880 for him. I root for the individuals there because there's 1:53:58.880 --> 1:54:02.960 some good people. I'm still there doing some good reporting. 1:54:03.000 --> 1:54:06.639 I just hope they're given the opportunity to do it all. Right, 1:54:06.760 --> 1:54:09.000 next one, let's see, He says, Hey, I rarely miss 1:54:09.000 --> 1:54:10.920 an episode and really appreciate how you approach issues with 1:54:11.000 --> 1:54:13.880 balance and thoughtfulness. You give me hope multiple times a week. 1:54:15.080 --> 1:54:16.479 My wife tells me this all the time. You have 1:54:16.560 --> 1:54:18.880 to get people help, don't depress them too much. So 1:54:18.920 --> 1:54:20.800 I appreciate you saying that. I sensed a bit of 1:54:20.840 --> 1:54:23.160 fatigue in your one twenty six episode, which is understandable 1:54:23.200 --> 1:54:25.920 given the repetitive nature of our political chaos. Just wanted 1:54:25.920 --> 1:54:28.240 to say, your perspective is helping thousands of us see 1:54:28.240 --> 1:54:30.960 the bigger picture and hold on to hope. Keep it up. Well, 1:54:31.200 --> 1:54:33.960 can I confess your You know, I worried that I 1:54:34.080 --> 1:54:36.960 let my fatigue show that night. I just was tired. 1:54:37.000 --> 1:54:40.560 I'd been traveling and doing all this, So I you know, 1:54:40.680 --> 1:54:43.600 my goal is to never let you see me tired. 1:54:43.640 --> 1:54:46.000 Trust me, I always have a cup of coffee going 1:54:47.120 --> 1:54:50.400 because I don't you know, I appreciate the sentiment, but 1:54:50.560 --> 1:54:53.560 you shouldn't catch that. But you were correct. You caught 1:54:53.600 --> 1:54:57.720 me a little tired. Next question comes from Eric R. 1:54:57.880 --> 1:55:02.200 North Oaks, Minnesota with parentheses. Want to be Canadian Chuck? 1:55:02.240 --> 1:55:04.280 First time? Long time? Why isn't there more discussion about 1:55:04.280 --> 1:55:06.880 the contrast between Trump wanting to send US troops into 1:55:06.920 --> 1:55:10.200 Iran to protect protesters while abeying protesters in Minneapolis as 1:55:10.240 --> 1:55:13.240 domestic terrorists. Imagine if Canada crossed our border to defend 1:55:13.360 --> 1:55:18.040 US protesters, how would MAGA respond? The inconsistency is baffling, Eric, 1:55:18.120 --> 1:55:21.280 That's a terrific observation. I you know, I want to 1:55:21.320 --> 1:55:23.120 sit here and say, oh, well, you know this is 1:55:23.160 --> 1:55:26.840 apples and pairs and you know, no, it's a terrific observation. 1:55:28.800 --> 1:55:30.920 I think the second part, what if Canada sent in 1:55:31.080 --> 1:55:35.200 troops to protect protesters. It's you know, if you recall 1:55:35.280 --> 1:55:37.760 Tim Wallas was asked about bringing in the National Guard 1:55:37.800 --> 1:55:40.000 and he seemed to think he was concerned that you 1:55:40.080 --> 1:55:46.040 know that maybe the military confrontation is is is the 1:55:46.280 --> 1:55:48.960 pretext that that Trump might be looking for and all that. 1:55:49.240 --> 1:55:57.520 So it's I, you know, I don't have I don't 1:55:57.520 --> 1:56:00.720 have a lot to add to your comparison. It is now, 1:56:01.000 --> 1:56:06.160 can I just say something on Iran? Donald Trump is 1:56:06.200 --> 1:56:11.480 playing with America's credibility again, these Iranian protesters. It's just 1:56:11.600 --> 1:56:15.280 like he is messing with these Venezuelan Venezuelan dissidents. You 1:56:15.360 --> 1:56:18.280 know what, the Venezuelan dissidents want, the democracy. You know what, 1:56:18.320 --> 1:56:21.640 Donald Trump is not delivering a democracy. He is keeping 1:56:22.680 --> 1:56:26.720 right Maduro's number two in power because she is simply 1:56:26.800 --> 1:56:29.440 trying to buy time and is playing the transactional game. 1:56:30.640 --> 1:56:32.600 And Trump, as long as he gets what he wants 1:56:32.760 --> 1:56:36.240 in regards to control and oil, he doesn't care about democracy. 1:56:37.080 --> 1:56:39.920 So I do think Donald Trump is telling us something 1:56:39.920 --> 1:56:46.040 about what he thinks of democracy by what he's not 1:56:46.200 --> 1:56:51.240 doing in Venezuela. The fact that this is not a priority. Well, 1:56:51.480 --> 1:56:53.720 if democracy is not a priority when you have an 1:56:53.720 --> 1:56:58.080 opportunity to make it a priority in another country, it's 1:56:58.160 --> 1:57:01.920 clearly not a priority for him here. So that's the 1:57:02.000 --> 1:57:05.200 unfortunate takeaway. Now, speaking of American credibility with the Iranian 1:57:05.240 --> 1:57:13.360 hostage of the Iranian protesters, you know, every time we 1:57:13.520 --> 1:57:18.360 make a promise and don't follow through overseas, a potential terrorist, 1:57:18.840 --> 1:57:23.640 future terrorist attacking the United States or a US entity 1:57:24.240 --> 1:57:32.280 only increases. Right, somebody who's fifteen protesting in Iran will 1:57:32.320 --> 1:57:35.760 see their parent killed and wondering how come the Americans 1:57:35.840 --> 1:57:38.520 didn't come. They said they would come, but they didn't 1:57:38.560 --> 1:57:42.800 follow through. Their word means nothing. The impression that leads 1:57:43.040 --> 1:57:47.200 each time, right is it is to make a promise 1:57:47.280 --> 1:57:53.160 and then abandon is in some ways worse than not 1:57:53.360 --> 1:57:55.800 doing anything. But at least you didn't promise that you would. 1:57:57.200 --> 1:58:02.040 So look, it's a fair picture you're painting about, you know, 1:58:02.120 --> 1:58:05.080 the sort of protesters. But I think if we're really 1:58:05.120 --> 1:58:08.640 trying to understand does he care about democracy or not? 1:58:09.800 --> 1:58:13.680 I think the actions in Venezuela say it all and 1:58:13.800 --> 1:58:16.840 the lack of prioritization of making this a democracy. There 1:58:17.000 --> 1:58:22.520 is a democratic elected government already ready to go, and 1:58:22.680 --> 1:58:26.040 the inability to acknowledge that is because for whatever reason, 1:58:26.880 --> 1:58:31.280 they haven't financially paid whatever price. I guess it needs 1:58:31.320 --> 1:58:36.360 to be paid to become to get this, to get 1:58:36.400 --> 1:58:39.640 the support of the United States for what the will 1:58:40.480 --> 1:58:46.280 of the people want it. But I also worry about 1:58:47.360 --> 1:58:49.520 you know, he's used a lot of hot rhetoric with 1:58:49.600 --> 1:58:52.920 these Iranian protesters, and we can debate whether American firepower 1:58:52.960 --> 1:58:55.320 should be used to protect these protesters or not. You know, 1:58:55.720 --> 1:58:58.800 why in Iran but not in me? And mar right 1:58:58.960 --> 1:59:01.680 why in you know? Picking and choosing when we step 1:59:01.760 --> 1:59:05.000 in is always comes with that comes with a lot 1:59:05.040 --> 1:59:08.760 of problems long term. But making a promise and not 1:59:08.960 --> 1:59:12.160 keeping it is in some ways the worst possible outcome. 1:59:16.000 --> 1:59:19.120 Next question comes from Darryl He says, longtime listener and 1:59:19.160 --> 1:59:21.320 fellow alum of Miami Killian and the University of Miami 1:59:21.360 --> 1:59:23.200 at class in ninety seven. Hey, what you take on 1:59:23.240 --> 1:59:25.840 the current state of NILAN college football, specifically Yum's approach 1:59:25.880 --> 1:59:29.200 to bringing established quarterbacks rather than developing talent from within. 1:59:29.360 --> 1:59:32.360 I worry this could push promising recruits like Darien Coleman 1:59:32.440 --> 1:59:34.480 to transfer and thrive elsewhere. Thanks and keep up the 1:59:34.520 --> 1:59:38.400 great podcasting, Darryl. You're not the only person worried about this. 1:59:38.560 --> 1:59:40.640 And I saw that the Hurricane. You know, I'd say 1:59:40.680 --> 1:59:47.120 the Hurricane fanatics like yourself and myself were pretty divided, 1:59:47.280 --> 1:59:52.040 right Like I was, I was weirdly not confident that 1:59:52.160 --> 1:59:55.280 we'd be okay if we didn't get a top notch 1:59:55.360 --> 1:59:59.960 portal quarterback. But that but that, I'm like, all right, 2:00:00.440 --> 2:00:02.760 you know, we'll find a Ken Dorsey. We'll find it 2:00:02.800 --> 2:00:05.440 Steve Walsh. And what do I mean by that? Both 2:00:05.440 --> 2:00:07.360 Steve Walsh and Ken Dorsey did get a couple of 2:00:07.400 --> 2:00:09.800 cups of coffee in the NFL. Ken Dorsey became a coach, 2:00:10.320 --> 2:00:14.440 really and he's a really good coach. Steve Walsh, I 2:00:14.440 --> 2:00:18.760 think does some coaching in Minnesota. But neither one. We're 2:00:19.080 --> 2:00:23.520 sort of highly touted NFL quarterbacks. But they had great 2:00:23.560 --> 2:00:27.560 offensive lines, they had great running backs and receivers, and 2:00:27.680 --> 2:00:30.839 they were I don't want to call them game managers, 2:00:31.040 --> 2:00:34.360 sounds like a negative. They were better than that. They 2:00:34.400 --> 2:00:37.840 were cerebral, they understood the offense and all that so 2:00:39.440 --> 2:00:42.360 I certainly think that the way Miami has built this 2:00:42.520 --> 2:00:45.360 brother the way Mario wants to build, which is, you 2:00:47.040 --> 2:00:49.400 get as deep of an offensive line and defensive line 2:00:49.400 --> 2:00:53.240 as you can, you get as many playmakers as you can, 2:00:54.000 --> 2:00:57.400 and then you know on receivers, and then you make 2:00:57.440 --> 2:01:01.000 it where it is hard for an average to above 2:01:01.040 --> 2:01:03.200 average to a great quarterback to fail no matter what 2:01:03.360 --> 2:01:08.160 level they're in. And so as long as we're building 2:01:08.240 --> 2:01:12.360 these powerful offensive lines, I'm not concerned about this, and 2:01:12.480 --> 2:01:15.160 I think that this quarterback. I mean, here's the thing. 2:01:17.240 --> 2:01:20.200 I mean, look at the top, look at all of 2:01:20.320 --> 2:01:24.160 the top top ten. Let's just go through the top 2:01:24.200 --> 2:01:26.800 ten programs real quick. Ohio State last year won a 2:01:26.880 --> 2:01:29.240 national title with a portal quarterback. In the end of 2:01:29.280 --> 2:01:32.000 this year went to a national lade with a portal quarterback. 2:01:32.240 --> 2:01:34.920 Notre Dame was in the finals, lost the finals with 2:01:34.960 --> 2:01:39.240 a portal quarterback. Miami lost the finals with a portal quarterback. 2:01:40.720 --> 2:01:45.960 It is it is not you can do both. One 2:01:46.000 --> 2:01:48.720 could argue Georgia hasn't won a title because they stuck 2:01:49.400 --> 2:01:52.520 with Gunner Stockton when maybe they should have shopped for 2:01:52.600 --> 2:01:58.200 a portal quarterback. Is that what happened? To Alabama, right 2:01:58.480 --> 2:02:02.080 is you see LSU has had some success with portal quarterbacks, 2:02:03.280 --> 2:02:05.360 Texas has arch Manning. I don't even think that counts 2:02:05.520 --> 2:02:13.000 right on that front. But I think that, you know, 2:02:13.280 --> 2:02:18.040 you're assuming this is in Miami's control. I think until 2:02:18.080 --> 2:02:21.280 we get some sort of parameters around transfers and how 2:02:21.360 --> 2:02:25.120 this all works, the quarterbacks themselves are going to keep 2:02:25.160 --> 2:02:29.560 shopping because the paydays are there. Because you know, there's 2:02:29.560 --> 2:02:33.440 always one program that thinks they're a quarterback away from 2:02:33.480 --> 2:02:36.920 relevancy if some form or another, and will overpay. So 2:02:37.040 --> 2:02:39.040 you're going to get more of these quarterbacks to get 2:02:39.080 --> 2:02:41.680 out of the portal and go in. And so do 2:02:41.840 --> 2:02:45.320 I do? I you know, think, well, my guess is 2:02:45.360 --> 2:02:48.080 sixty percent of Miami starting quarterback until the system is 2:02:48.200 --> 2:02:50.680 sort of changed. If this is the system, that a 2:02:50.760 --> 2:02:54.920 majority of our starters will be portal quarterbacks. But if 2:02:54.920 --> 2:02:58.680 there's you know, we'll find out, you know, what happens 2:02:58.720 --> 2:03:01.960 to how we recruited for we get a major injury, right, 2:03:02.080 --> 2:03:06.640 you know, there's also unforeseen issues that could pop up 2:03:08.360 --> 2:03:12.520 that could end up forcing our hand, and we'll find 2:03:12.560 --> 2:03:15.160 out just how good our high school recruiting has been 2:03:15.280 --> 2:03:22.400 and our quarterback development has been But I think as 2:03:22.480 --> 2:03:26.440 long as we're building an offensive line and whether it's 2:03:26.680 --> 2:03:28.960 making sure we have the best freshman and the best 2:03:29.000 --> 2:03:32.800 portal right like that is you know, then I do 2:03:32.960 --> 2:03:35.880 think you can plug and play quarterback. It's probably the 2:03:36.040 --> 2:03:39.160 only position I'm comfortable plugging in playing like that. But 2:03:39.280 --> 2:03:44.520 I think you can. Next question comes from Heather from Decatur, 2:03:46.200 --> 2:03:50.760 longtime listener. I'm curious Illinois or Alabama. Heather, long time listener, 2:03:50.760 --> 2:03:54.680 appreciate the clear, nonpartisan analysis that helps me stay grounded 2:03:54.720 --> 2:03:57.400 in two day's political climate. Well, thank you for saying that, Heather, 2:03:57.720 --> 2:04:00.000 as a Georgia native, I'm curious about your recent confident 2:04:00.080 --> 2:04:02.640 that's in John Ossoff holding the Senate seat beyond the 2:04:02.680 --> 2:04:04.960 two flipped PSC races. Do you have other insights? I 2:04:05.040 --> 2:04:07.760 were those results might be skewed since many Republican areas 2:04:07.800 --> 2:04:10.120 had fewer races on the ballot compared to Democratic strongholds. 2:04:10.160 --> 2:04:13.480 Thanks and war Eagle. Obviously it's de cater Alabama. What 2:04:13.600 --> 2:04:16.200 you take on Auburn's new head coach. I love Auburn's 2:04:16.240 --> 2:04:18.920 new head coach, Alex Grolls. I think he's got a 2:04:19.000 --> 2:04:20.560 great story. I don't know if you know it. I 2:04:20.640 --> 2:04:23.200 think he was, if I'm not mistaken. He was born 2:04:23.240 --> 2:04:26.360 in Moscow in nineteen eighty four. Parents brought him over 2:04:26.520 --> 2:04:28.520 to the United States at the age of seven, became 2:04:28.560 --> 2:04:32.680 a football crazed, got into it, all that stuff, and 2:04:32.800 --> 2:04:34.880 he's bringing over a great quarterback and Byron Brown. So 2:04:35.040 --> 2:04:37.320 I you know, look, I've got Auburn fans in my 2:04:38.320 --> 2:04:42.640 in my family and two our closest friends, and some 2:04:42.760 --> 2:04:46.680 of my closest relatives big Auburn fans. So I'm I'm 2:04:46.680 --> 2:04:50.160 an Auburn apologist in general. I've become I'm learning to 2:04:50.240 --> 2:04:55.560 become one. They still didn't deserve a shot at the 2:04:55.640 --> 2:04:58.120 national title over Miami in nineteen eighty three, Stephen, and 2:04:58.200 --> 2:05:02.120 I'll just leave it at that. But I'm bullish on him. 2:05:03.240 --> 2:05:08.440 I uh, you know, I just hope the Auburn powers 2:05:08.480 --> 2:05:13.760 that be have patience, right, They're so impatience nobody ever 2:05:13.880 --> 2:05:16.600 seems to get a chance to build a program. But 2:05:17.680 --> 2:05:22.680 I think I like that they they're trying this, you know, 2:05:23.480 --> 2:05:26.520 instead of like trying the searching for Bobby, you know, 2:05:26.640 --> 2:05:29.880 in the obsessions with Bobby Petrino or throwing cash at 2:05:29.960 --> 2:05:33.000 Lane Kiffin or doing something like that, right, seeing if 2:05:33.000 --> 2:05:35.720 they can get a guy from the level below, find 2:05:35.800 --> 2:05:38.680 their own Urban Meyer, right, who came at the time 2:05:38.800 --> 2:05:42.360 from the mid majors and then turned you know, came 2:05:42.400 --> 2:05:48.200 in and helped make Florida power. So I would I'm 2:05:48.400 --> 2:05:51.720 I am more bullish on him, and I'd like I'd 2:05:51.800 --> 2:05:54.360 like to see the South Florida guy do good on 2:05:54.480 --> 2:05:58.720 that front. Now, as for the other part of your question, 2:06:00.800 --> 2:06:03.720 John Assoff, what gives me this confidence? It's the weak 2:06:03.840 --> 2:06:07.240 Republican primary field as well. Right, So you throw a 2:06:07.320 --> 2:06:10.440 bunch of things. Number one, you know, Asofsun and Coombent 2:06:10.480 --> 2:06:15.360 has an enormous financial advantage. Number Two, the only can 2:06:15.680 --> 2:06:17.960 the I would argue, there were two candidates he had 2:06:18.000 --> 2:06:21.680 to fear, Brian Camp and Brad Rathensberger. Neither one of 2:06:21.760 --> 2:06:27.120 them are running. Three, you have the national climate and 2:06:27.240 --> 2:06:30.040 Georgia clearly being a swing state now seems to move 2:06:30.080 --> 2:06:33.120 in that direction. I agree with you, I I it 2:06:33.280 --> 2:06:35.720 is not the margins. It is the result of the 2:06:35.800 --> 2:06:38.440 PSC races, not necessarily even the margins. That impressed me 2:06:40.480 --> 2:06:42.720 because you're right, you know, you had you had to 2:06:42.720 --> 2:06:44.960 turn out differential that was huge. But the fact that 2:06:45.320 --> 2:06:48.320 you still got those huge margins, says something, but it 2:06:48.480 --> 2:06:52.040 mostly goes this is a weak field. I think the 2:06:52.080 --> 2:06:54.400 strongest candidate will be Derek Dooley, but it looks like 2:06:54.520 --> 2:06:56.920 the likely opponent's going to be somebody with the first 2:06:56.960 --> 2:06:59.520 name of Congressman, which I think is an absolute gift 2:07:01.040 --> 2:07:04.600 because his biggest competitive you know, in theory, being a 2:07:04.720 --> 2:07:06.680 part of the Washington Swamp is not good. But if 2:07:06.680 --> 2:07:09.880 you're a House Republican people, people don't like Congress. I 2:07:09.920 --> 2:07:12.680 think they hate the House more than the Senate, just generically, right, 2:07:12.880 --> 2:07:16.440 So I just think you throw all that together, open 2:07:16.520 --> 2:07:20.200 governor's seat. No Brian camp leading the ticket either, right, 2:07:20.480 --> 2:07:23.880 his his political machine. Just yes, it's helping Derek Dooley 2:07:23.920 --> 2:07:25.760 in that Senate primary. But I think when you throw 2:07:25.800 --> 2:07:29.360 all that together, and I was, you know, look, I 2:07:29.560 --> 2:07:32.960 thought as Off was the accidental senator when you know, 2:07:33.080 --> 2:07:35.640 sort of writing the coattails of Raphaeld Warnock back in 2:07:36.200 --> 2:07:41.160 during those runoffs. You know, he's got a formidable he's 2:07:41.240 --> 2:07:45.560 always been formidable on raising money, and he works his 2:07:45.800 --> 2:07:49.120 you know what, off, he works his as Off Off. 2:07:49.520 --> 2:07:52.800 I guess it's a to to try to create a 2:07:52.920 --> 2:07:56.240 Dad humor pun there. So, yeah, that's I think this 2:07:56.480 --> 2:08:00.560 is I'm I'm inclined to right now. It's in lean 2:08:00.680 --> 2:08:03.920 deed to me. Until you show me proof that one 2:08:03.960 --> 2:08:06.160 of these Republicans can get the fifty percent plus one 2:08:06.400 --> 2:08:09.400 right now, I don't see it all right. Final question 2:08:09.480 --> 2:08:13.880 of the day comes from Colonel Stephen Mitchell, the United 2:08:13.920 --> 2:08:16.400 States Air Force retired, and he writes this good day check. 2:08:16.400 --> 2:08:19.040 I really enjoyed your January twenty ninth podcast, especially in 2:08:19.080 --> 2:08:21.200 the segment on Trump's pull numbers. It seems he's losing 2:08:21.240 --> 2:08:23.720 support from voters who backed him for economic reasons, but 2:08:23.760 --> 2:08:25.560 I'm unsure if the same is true for those focused 2:08:25.600 --> 2:08:28.560 on the border. Given your polling expertise, what you take 2:08:28.640 --> 2:08:31.920 and aside from the economy, what do you think will 2:08:31.960 --> 2:08:34.840 be the top issue on voters minds? Thank you very much. Look, 2:08:34.880 --> 2:08:38.840 I think obviously you're gonna have economy one. I think 2:08:38.920 --> 2:08:43.200 there's the question I have is is there a do 2:08:43.320 --> 2:08:48.440 we create a bucket called sort of chaos or tumult right, 2:08:48.840 --> 2:08:51.880 Because ultimately, I think the reason why Trump won in 2:08:51.920 --> 2:08:54.960 twenty twenty four is because the perceived chaos Biden created 2:08:55.000 --> 2:08:58.960 at the border. In addition to sourness about the economy, 2:08:59.400 --> 2:09:01.600 like you need it, you needed sort of both things. 2:09:02.400 --> 2:09:05.800 I think sourness in the economy, plus you know, is 2:09:05.920 --> 2:09:08.760 he intentionally dividing the country with ice? Right, it's not 2:09:08.920 --> 2:09:11.040 that the it's not that what he did on the 2:09:11.080 --> 2:09:14.240 borders unpopular. In fact, that's an important distinction, which I 2:09:14.680 --> 2:09:19.400 which you're I think indicating that you understand about how 2:09:20.760 --> 2:09:24.440 you know. The danger for Republicans now is that the 2:09:24.600 --> 2:09:28.000 voters are pretty sophisticated in how they are processing the 2:09:28.040 --> 2:09:32.280 immigration issue. When you ask them about border security, they're 2:09:32.320 --> 2:09:36.160 impressed with the Trump administration. They're mostly approving. When you 2:09:36.200 --> 2:09:38.920 ask them about immigration, they see that through the prism 2:09:38.960 --> 2:09:42.320 of ice, not security anymore, and they don't like what 2:09:42.400 --> 2:09:46.600 they're seeing. So I think the fact that that's been 2:09:46.760 --> 2:09:52.560 split right where it's an opening if a nimble Democrat 2:09:52.680 --> 2:09:55.760 knows how to take it, which is look, Biden was 2:09:55.840 --> 2:09:58.280 terrible on border security. I'm not going to let that 2:09:58.440 --> 2:10:00.520 happen again. And I'm glad to see what the Trump 2:10:00.560 --> 2:10:03.320 administration has done at the border, but what they're doing 2:10:03.400 --> 2:10:06.600 in our communities across the country is outrageous, etc. Etc. Right. 2:10:06.920 --> 2:10:08.800 So the point is that I think what it does 2:10:08.960 --> 2:10:12.400 provide is the Democrats an opening to look like, hey, 2:10:12.520 --> 2:10:16.680 I'm no Biden on the border, but I'm no Trump 2:10:16.840 --> 2:10:21.320 in harassing Americans either. Right, It's a way to differentiate 2:10:21.400 --> 2:10:24.600 yourself from the Democratic brand on a negative aspect of 2:10:24.640 --> 2:10:27.040 the border and at the same time being able to 2:10:27.480 --> 2:10:30.840 differentiate yourself and show empathy and compassionate about what's happening 2:10:30.880 --> 2:10:33.720 in places like Minneapolis. So that's where I think that 2:10:34.360 --> 2:10:37.520 there's a real problem now for Republicans on this issue, 2:10:37.560 --> 2:10:41.760 and why so many of them are starting to whisper 2:10:41.880 --> 2:10:45.440 loudly that Stephen Miller's a problem, that he is creating 2:10:46.240 --> 2:10:50.560 a narrative, creating a perception about Republicans. It's going to 2:10:50.600 --> 2:10:53.320 be hard to overcome in many of these places. You know, 2:10:53.600 --> 2:10:57.440 maybe the base is happy, but that is it on 2:10:57.560 --> 2:11:01.400 this stuff. But when you're asking about other issues, look, 2:11:01.480 --> 2:11:05.760 I think obviously economy, anything that's you know, So do 2:11:05.840 --> 2:11:09.080 you consider healthcare and economy issue? I kind of do, right, 2:11:09.280 --> 2:11:15.720 So I think that's there. If Democrats let me do this, 2:11:16.200 --> 2:11:20.120 let me flip the question here. If Democrats have a 2:11:20.280 --> 2:11:24.520 huge night, it isn't going to be because they only 2:11:24.600 --> 2:11:28.440 want on the economy. If Democrats have a huge night, 2:11:28.520 --> 2:11:33.160 it means they got the corruption issue into the mind 2:11:33.280 --> 2:11:36.000 of the swing voter, that they found a way into it. 2:11:36.120 --> 2:11:39.880 Maybe they did it via exhaustion, you know, the Trump 2:11:40.040 --> 2:11:42.440 chaos idea, look what he does at the White House, 2:11:42.720 --> 2:11:46.360 Kennedy Centers selling foreign policy, like lumping it all in together. 2:11:46.960 --> 2:11:53.320 But you know, I think the difference between Democrats having 2:11:53.360 --> 2:11:57.120 a good night in November and having an incredible night 2:11:57.160 --> 2:12:06.640 in November is their ability to take these various gross, corruptive, 2:12:08.160 --> 2:12:12.240 uncomfortable stories and figuring out how to package it as one. Right. 2:12:12.760 --> 2:12:17.080 COVID helped paint a picture of, you know, all the 2:12:17.120 --> 2:12:19.680 Trump chaos and it led to this right, and so 2:12:19.800 --> 2:12:23.360 that's why that messaging was was pretty easy to get 2:12:23.440 --> 2:12:29.680 him out of there. If you know, it's sort of 2:12:31.080 --> 2:12:32.640 I'll be curious to see how they do it and 2:12:32.760 --> 2:12:34.720 if they can do it. But my point is is 2:12:34.800 --> 2:12:38.000 that it's one of those if I'm in a coma, 2:12:38.080 --> 2:12:40.000 If I go in to coma to my and I 2:12:40.040 --> 2:12:42.280 don't wake up till day after election and you tell 2:12:42.320 --> 2:12:44.400 me they won six Senate seats and thirty House seats, 2:12:45.080 --> 2:12:47.440 I'm like, oh wow, the corruption issue must have played 2:12:49.160 --> 2:12:52.840 that would be my initial instinct. So I don't know 2:12:52.920 --> 2:12:58.360 if it's going to play, but I think this is 2:12:58.400 --> 2:13:01.160 one of those for them to go from good to great, 2:13:02.080 --> 2:13:03.760 they need to figure out how to get the corruption 2:13:03.880 --> 2:13:09.720 issue to be easy to digest and something the quote 2:13:09.920 --> 2:13:13.160 check on Trump, right, the check on his power, you 2:13:13.240 --> 2:13:15.400 know it is. It is the path for them to 2:13:15.440 --> 2:13:19.320 get to that messaging. But you need to make the 2:13:19.440 --> 2:13:22.080 case that he's corrupt and that this corruption is happening 2:13:22.560 --> 2:13:25.400 in order to do it. And we'll see if they're 2:13:25.400 --> 2:13:28.240 able to pull that off. All right, there you go. 2:13:29.160 --> 2:13:34.800 That does it for me. On a Wednesday, man, I 2:13:34.840 --> 2:13:37.800 got to this is a political junkies, junkies episode trying 2:13:37.840 --> 2:13:40.200 to explain this is like the old hotline for me, 2:13:40.560 --> 2:13:45.240 little media narrative explanation, a little historical comparison with Eddie Roosevelt, 2:13:45.560 --> 2:13:49.840 a little electoral scoreboard in college strategizing for twenty thirty two, 2:13:50.400 --> 2:13:54.160 plus this, and somebody's asking me whether you know what 2:13:54.280 --> 2:13:57.520 do I miss about NBC at this point? Nothing? This, 2:13:58.920 --> 2:14:02.560 This is this is the broadcast, the type of broadcast 2:14:02.600 --> 2:14:04.640 I've always wanted to do. So I appreciate you listening, 2:14:04.920 --> 2:14:08.480 appreciate your support. I can subscribe, don't forget to use 2:14:08.520 --> 2:14:12.640 all the codes from our advertisers, and with that, I'll 2:14:12.640 --> 2:14:13.600 see you in twenty four hours.