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Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bet, says me. Joey p joe Pi's apia and

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Speaker 1: this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead to

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Speaker 1: the props for week eleven. I'm back from vacation. I

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Speaker 1: missed this show last week, so I did not get

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Speaker 1: to hang out with Welsh and Erickson for the props.

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Speaker 1: They were left to their own devices. And you know

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Speaker 1: what happens when Dad's not around, crazy things like Jalen Wattle,

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Speaker 1: ladder bets and boys. I left your pizza money and

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Speaker 1: you burned it all on Jalen Wattle and you went hungry.

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Speaker 1: And on Monday I was texting with you both and

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Speaker 1: it looked like things were going well for your Jalen

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Speaker 1: waddle and I said, look at this. This numbers up to

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Speaker 1: ninety five and a half. And your excitement led me

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Speaker 1: to bet that under and I just want to thank

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Speaker 1: you guys for that. It was a nice return from vacation.

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Speaker 1: Are you guys? I guess back from the Jalen Wattle, I.

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Speaker 2: Guess hater on the planet. I would like to point

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Speaker 2: out we did not go hungry. We hit the two

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Speaker 2: most important legs. You've got to hit. If you're going

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Speaker 2: to do a ladder, you got to hit the core bet,

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Speaker 2: which we did in like the second catch and actually

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Speaker 2: the next ladder. It just here's the problem. I had

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Speaker 2: four more versions of the ladder to go, and we

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Speaker 2: needed like three yards and it all happened on the.

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Speaker 1: First one of a step ladder.

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Speaker 2: I said, the logic the stepwatter phenomenal. Can't even be bad.

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Speaker 2: You got to walk away from it and just chop

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Speaker 2: it up to the game like okay, logic was perfect.

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Speaker 2: He hit two legs of a ladder on the first

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Speaker 2: drive of the game. Hat tip to Erickson for doing it.

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Speaker 2: I went all in and I'm going to give you

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Speaker 2: a tease right now on this show. At the end,

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Speaker 2: we're going back to the ladder. I am presenting us

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Speaker 2: a ladder bet for week eleven that we are going

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Speaker 2: to ride and you're gonna love it. And ericson, you're

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Speaker 2: coming with me, You're coming with me?

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Speaker 1: All right? I don't know. I think I might have

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Speaker 1: vertigo ericson, how about you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: And I think I've had my fair of ladder bets

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Speaker 4: so far this year. I mean, look basically since like

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Speaker 4: last year, the Achan thing. Everyone that I've done since

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Speaker 4: then as always, well the funny thing is.

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Speaker 1: The only one I've got. This year was another h

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Speaker 1: had one day. Again.

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Speaker 4: We made money because I again that's why you go

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Speaker 4: in on the first on the I'm talking about the

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Speaker 4: Jayalen Wattawa. So made money, just not as much. So

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Speaker 4: I didn't get to have you know, lobster mac and

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Speaker 4: cheese on Monday night.

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Speaker 3: That was unfortunate. But you know record of mac and cheese.

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Speaker 2: Cut some hot dogs and put it in the mac

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Speaker 2: and cheese.

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Speaker 1: There you go, hot dogs and mac and cheese. Also,

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Speaker 1: at the end of the show, I want to talk

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Speaker 1: about the Mike Tyson fight because yes, it's fun I

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Speaker 1: want to talk about. So so let's get to the

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Speaker 1: props for NFL and they'll have a little fun at

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Speaker 1: the end of the show. Here before we do, just

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Speaker 1: a quick reminder, don't forget we're using the prop bet

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet here for a lot of these props. When

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Speaker 1: you're searching, I mean, look, this is what I go

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Speaker 1: through when I'm betting my props. When I'm putting together

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Speaker 1: the show plans, when I'm putting together TV plans, I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at the prop bet cheat sheet, so you should

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Speaker 1: be checking it out too. Go to betting Pros dot

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Speaker 1: com slash props. That's where you go and get this

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Speaker 1: and it's free. You can look at it, check it out.

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Speaker 1: You could see the overs, the unders, the best places

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Speaker 1: to bet them. It is perfect. I mean the word

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet is there for a reason because it takes

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Speaker 1: all the guests out of it. So one of the

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Speaker 1: many amazing tools at the suite of betting Pros is

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Speaker 1: the prop bet cheat sheets, so I encourage you to

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Speaker 1: use it. Go to bettingpros dot com, slash props or

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Speaker 1: just download the app check it out for yourself. Welsh,

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Speaker 1: let's start with you. You are in on a game

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Speaker 1: that I am very much in onto, which is the

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Sewer. From a prop standpoint, the game itself still

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Speaker 1: kind of scares me. I've got a lot invested in

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Speaker 1: some big money parlays that I want the Ravens very

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Speaker 1: much to win, and very much to win that division

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Speaker 1: because if they do, Joey's gonna be a rich man

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Speaker 1: at the end of the year. But the Pittsburgh Steeler

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Speaker 1: is from a prop standpoint, I am going after and

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Speaker 1: I want to start with this because you and I

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Speaker 1: see this the same. Let's start with Russell Wilson. The

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Speaker 1: number is two twenty five and a half, and baby,

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Speaker 1: I like the over and I think so do you.

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Speaker 2: Yep, that's actually I believe Erickson. You had the under

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Speaker 2: on this last week. So this is an opposite play.

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Speaker 2: And I think now we can kind of move and

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Speaker 2: build forward that Russell Wilson is slaying in the ball.

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Speaker 2: He has hit this prop number of two twenty five

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Speaker 2: overpassing yards in two of the last three weeks. By

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Speaker 2: the way, the one that he did not hit was

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Speaker 2: because he only completed fourteen passes. So why do I

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Speaker 2: like this even more? Ravens is a tough defense, except

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Speaker 2: not against the pass. Ravens are giving up the most

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Speaker 2: passing yards overall on the year. The Ravens, yes, because

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Speaker 2: you can't run in them. This obviously, Arthur Schmid. The

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Speaker 2: Steelers are going to want to try to run and

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Speaker 2: establish a run. But where you do the damage is

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Speaker 2: in the air, and Russell Wilson has been doing it

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Speaker 2: in the air. It's going to take us to a

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Speaker 2: George Pickens number here in just a little bit. Projections

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Speaker 2: really like this number as well. You can find it

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Speaker 2: across different places. I cross reference betting pros always, and

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Speaker 2: then I usually like to look at like, pff, we're

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Speaker 2: over two thirty five, so we've got around a ten

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Speaker 2: ten passing yards swing on projections in favor of it.

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Speaker 2: But again, he's been hitting this, They've been slaying the ball,

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Speaker 2: and this is a great matchup where the Ravens are

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Speaker 2: just very susceptible giving up the most passing yards in

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Speaker 2: the NFL right now. So give me Russell Wilson over

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Speaker 2: passing yards. I'd probably play this still up to two

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Speaker 2: thirty five, but I got it at two twenty five.

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Speaker 2: So Russ Wilson, let's go.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the New Orleans say they

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Speaker 1: are at home against the Cleveland Browns, coming off of bye. Andrew,

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Speaker 1: we've talked a lot about this game all week. Look,

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Speaker 1: I'll be honest with you, Like the MVS line is

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Speaker 1: the one that I'm looking at. Thirty one and a

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Speaker 1: half receiving yards. I think that's pretty good. I don't

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Speaker 1: like the juice on. It's a little heavy right now.

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Speaker 1: It's minus one thirty five and a lot of spots.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, you see another out here

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Speaker 1: potentially with somebody else on the Saints. So let's talk

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Speaker 1: about Taysom Hill.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Taysom Hill has taken on a larger role as

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Speaker 4: a receiver with all of the injuries to the Saints'

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Speaker 4: main wide receivers. Even before MBS stepped up last week,

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Speaker 4: it's gone over twenty one receiving yards in three straight games.

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Speaker 4: This line is at sixteen and a half and it

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Speaker 4: really should be a larger line because Taysom Hill had

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Speaker 4: an eighty eight yard touchdown callback due to a penalty

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Speaker 4: last week. So you're getting a lot of value, I

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Speaker 4: think on this line because if that play holds, then

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Speaker 4: you're looking at this number probably closer to twenty five

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Speaker 4: thirty receiving arts because of how much that would impact

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Speaker 4: his receiving yards per game average. So I mean, he

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Speaker 4: can do this on the first drive or he could

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Speaker 4: do this on.

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Speaker 3: The last drive.

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Speaker 4: So this bet is live the entire game between the

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Speaker 4: Saints and the Brown and I think it's going to

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Speaker 4: go over. So again, this Tazemill has a great role

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Speaker 4: in this offense. He's running more routes, he's involved in

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Speaker 4: the passing game. So I like the overrun of just

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Speaker 4: very very low number here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, the Cleveland Browns have a lot of communication

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Speaker 1: problems in their secondary and there's a lot of opportunity

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Speaker 1: here to take some shots here with Hill or with

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Speaker 1: MVS in this one, and sixteen and a half is

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Speaker 1: a pretty low number there. Let's go back to the

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers again. Well, you've got another bet that's an over.

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Speaker 1: But I actually have one too that I want to

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Speaker 1: throw out there as an under, which is the Naji

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Speaker 1: Harris number. I just want to throw this out there

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Speaker 1: because again you mentioned the defense of the Baltimore Ravens,

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Speaker 1: obviously struggling mightily against the past. You want to throw

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Speaker 1: on them all day long, which means that combination of

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Speaker 1: want and the combination of that front for them is

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Speaker 1: tough in terms of rushing equity. Fifteen and a half

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Speaker 1: is the number for Naji Harris. I want to go

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Speaker 1: under that. It's again it's kind of a skin of

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Speaker 1: our teeth number, but I think it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a little ugly. And he's also not one hundred percent.

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Speaker 1: But there is a guy too that I like for

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Speaker 1: the over, and it's the same one you do. If

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Speaker 1: we like the over for Russell Wilson that we got

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Speaker 1: to like the over for Pickens.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, And that's where I'm going with George Pickens,

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Speaker 2: you know, So back to that staying the really the

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Speaker 2: baseline of everything here is per game most passing yards

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Speaker 2: Ravens boom. That's kind of our overall baseline. Now, something

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Speaker 2: that we've done a lot on this show, and I

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Speaker 2: know you could maybe push back on me a little

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Speaker 2: bit against it is like to go yards most of

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Speaker 2: the time, yards on wide receivers. But Pickens yard number

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Speaker 2: it's actually pretty big this week. It's still in play

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Speaker 2: because of the Ravens secondary, but it's a bigger number.

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Speaker 2: What isn't is the receptions. The receptions which I like

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Speaker 2: to do more than you guys, are at four point five. Well,

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Speaker 2: guess what six straight weeks the number one wide receiver

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Speaker 2: against Baltimore has had six or more receptions six straight weeks.

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Speaker 2: So that number one wide out is getting that coverage.

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Speaker 2: We've seen. Pickens is obviously the deeper play guy. They're

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Speaker 2: still going to play him under. Pickens is in a

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Speaker 2: great spot for this we've seen. I forgot to pull this,

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Speaker 2: but I want to say it was like two the

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Speaker 2: last three or three of the last five we've seen

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Speaker 2: Pickens put up over five receptions. Pickens is in a

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Speaker 2: great spot. Projections have got him over five receptions here.

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Speaker 2: I expect this dealers to also be playing from behind,

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Speaker 2: and that all leads to just a great spot for

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Speaker 2: Pickens to not only be the main beneficiary of Russell Wilson,

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Speaker 2: but as I said, number one wide receivers going up

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Speaker 2: against Baltimore, they eat also really great PFF wide receiver

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Speaker 2: cornerback matchup this week. So Pickens receptions four point five

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Speaker 2: I liked better than the really like high sixties yard

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Speaker 2: total for George Pickens.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the yard total is seventy and a half, but

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Speaker 1: he's crossed that threshold three right.

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Speaker 3: I like the yards.

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Speaker 2: I know you guys hate my receptions. Play them all

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Speaker 2: receptions eight yards?

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Speaker 4: I mean yeah, because again, if he has a monster game,

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Speaker 4: he's gonna go over both. It doesn't really matter. But

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Speaker 4: like when I think about Pickens, I think contested catch receiver.

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Speaker 4: He goes up and gets the ball. So I feel

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Speaker 4: like he could catch three passes and go for seventy yards.

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Speaker 4: So that's the only way I guess I be. I

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Speaker 4: don't know, I just I think I like the again,

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Speaker 4: the yards. I feel like when you like the player,

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Speaker 4: you bet the yards. When you player is good, when

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Speaker 4: it's a player that you don't have a ton of

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Speaker 4: confidence in, as like is this guy just a volume guy,

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Speaker 4: then you bet the reception. So again, this may not

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Speaker 4: matter at all, because I think every time on the

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Speaker 4: show we bring this up, I don't think it actually

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Speaker 4: has mattered.

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Speaker 3: It's either been like way under. I don't think so

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Speaker 3: you're way over for ye or way over for both.

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Speaker 3: But we'll see on someite and.

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Speaker 2: Only thing I would throw and only thing I just throw.

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Speaker 2: In with this as well, the receiving yard total was

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Speaker 2: also something that made me feel more comfortablebout the receptions.

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Speaker 2: Pickens is averaging sixteen yards per catch, so if he

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Speaker 2: were to catch four balls, that would get him under

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Speaker 2: the seventy marker the projected yards are over, he'd be

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Speaker 2: sixty four yards based on that. Four point five feels

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Speaker 2: fantastic big based on what he does in general and

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Speaker 2: that coverage, So you can play the yards. I'm down

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Speaker 2: with it. But the yards to me are also telling

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Speaker 2: the story of why the receptions work really great for Pickens.

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Speaker 2: But again we're not that passing game of the y.

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Speaker 3: Is the payout the same on both one plus money.

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Speaker 2: I think they're both like minus one.

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Speaker 1: Let me, I've got it right here for you. And

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Speaker 1: that's funny you mentioned that, Ericson. If you go for

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Speaker 1: right now, if you go to let's say sixty five

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Speaker 1: and a half, you're getting heavy juice here minus one

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Speaker 1: thirty places like bet MGM. If you push that number

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Speaker 1: to sixty nine and a half on DraftKings, you're getting

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Speaker 1: minus one fifteen. So I would push that perfectly fine.

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Speaker 1: I'm flying with that again. Seventy and a half is

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Speaker 1: the mean number. He went for seventy ninety one last week,

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Speaker 1: the week.

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Speaker 4: Before seventy four, the week before that, one to eleven,

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Speaker 4: so he's averaging ninety receiving yards per game with Russ

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Speaker 4: right exactly.

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Speaker 1: So to me, this is easy. Just go get the

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Speaker 1: highest number, go take the over, and get the last

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Speaker 1: juice period. End of story. Easyps. And for the ones

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Speaker 1: we're looking for receptions. But you're worried about yardage, Guys

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Speaker 1: like you know, Pop Douglas will catch you know, seven

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Speaker 1: balls for thirty yards. That's a little problem. But speaking

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Speaker 1: of Patriots, Ericson, you've got a prop on a Patriot

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Speaker 1: right now that you want to talk about for Week eleven?

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Speaker 1: Who is it?

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Speaker 3: Man?

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Speaker 4: This I'm gonna be my words talking about taking receiving

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Speaker 4: yard overs on players that we have confidence in. I'm

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Speaker 4: going to the booty Kashawn Booty for the New England Patriots.

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Speaker 4: So I haven't really I don't know how many times

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Speaker 4: his line has actually been live to bet, but we

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Speaker 4: have his receiving yards prop at thirty two and a

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Speaker 4: half yards and he's kind of been the wide receiver

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Speaker 4: one in the Patriots offense over the last three weeks

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Speaker 4: in terms of usage, he's running the most routes and

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Speaker 4: we look at his yardage numbers last six games, he's

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Speaker 4: gone over this number in five of them. And the

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Speaker 4: only game that he didn't go over was against the

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Speaker 4: Tennessee Titans, who are the number one defense in passing

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Speaker 4: yards allowed per game the fewest, So in that game

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Speaker 4: he still had six targets, he still had opportunities to

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Speaker 4: get over thirty two and a half receiving yards. He

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Speaker 4: is the deep threat for the New England Patriots. We

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Speaker 4: know that the Rams are a bad defense in terms

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Speaker 4: of their secondary We know Drake May's gonna drop him

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Speaker 4: back to throw the ball downfield. And who has that

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Speaker 4: guy been? Kashawan Boody. He has over three hundred and

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Speaker 4: twenty air yards in his last three games, which is

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Speaker 4: sixth most among all players. It's funny if you look

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Speaker 4: at the total air yards that Kishon Boody has had,

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Speaker 4: you know who's jammed in between him? Justin Jefferson, Jamar,

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Speaker 4: Chase Lsu Baby Kashawn Booty thirtieth yards per attempt allowed

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Speaker 4: this season. Look, Jayleen, if Jalen Wild got there last week,

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Speaker 4: So I'm going back against the Rams Kaishan Boody over

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Speaker 4: thirty two and out for steving yards. I don't think

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Speaker 4: he actually had a receptions prop. I think it was

294
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Speaker 4: like two and a half. So that's also why I'm

295
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Speaker 4: going towards the yards.

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Speaker 1: Uh he does now it's two and a half the receptions.

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Speaker 1: That's where it is right now. But to your point, Ericson,

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Speaker 1: you can actually get this at thirty one and a half.

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Speaker 1: And if you think that one yard doesn't matter, I

300
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Speaker 1: was eleven and three last week, eleven and three. One

301
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Speaker 1: of the ones I missed was three stinking yards on

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Speaker 1: Sam Darnold. If he would have just stopped throwing interceptions

303
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Speaker 1: for two minutes. I would have had that one too,

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Speaker 1: and it sticks it by the wall. So yeah, every

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Speaker 1: single yard matters. And right now I'm looking on FanDuel

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Speaker 1: is thirty one and a half. Everyone else is thirty

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Speaker 1: two and a half, even thirty four and a half

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Speaker 1: at ESPN.

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Speaker 2: Bet you want to talk about every yard matter. Something

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Speaker 2: we did not open this show about and we should

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Speaker 2: have was the amount of people that got screwed in

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Speaker 2: the Thursday night game by that kneel down. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if you saw we had a Mike our boy,

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Speaker 2: Mike Mayer had a giant parlay that was hit and

315
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Speaker 2: he lost it by the kneel down by one yard

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Speaker 2: because the public line on the rushing yards. I know

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Speaker 2: you had thirty eight and a half on the Thursday show,

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Speaker 2: so you got to cash that win and it didn't matter.

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Speaker 2: But the public line before the game was forty or

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Speaker 2: forty one and a half on the rushing yards and

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Speaker 2: he kneels it down. If you had the forty under

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Speaker 2: thirty nine and destroyed those yards absolutely matter at all times,

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Speaker 2: for sure.

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Speaker 1: And if Mike Marhror was smart, he would have been

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Speaker 1: watching the Thursday night show that we do here bogging

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Speaker 1: myself because again same game, parlay right here hit it again.

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Speaker 1: Three spot for you. Barkley on the over, Hurts on

328
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Speaker 1: the over, Hurts anytime touchdown ooh we And by the way, Welsh,

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Speaker 1: I love it because I already got my Hurts touchdown

330
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Speaker 1: for out of bounds. That's already done. It's three weeks

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Speaker 1: in a row, so I am on fire. I just

332
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Speaker 1: gave rolling Jalen Hurts, just just bet it all, letting

333
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Speaker 1: a ride every single week. And I actually think something

334
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Speaker 1: you should pay attention to that MVP number has gone

335
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Speaker 1: from plus two thousand to plus sixteen hundred overnight. I

336
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Speaker 1: would watch this very carefully because statistically speaking, that Eagles

337
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Speaker 1: defense has played better than anybody in the last four weeks.

338
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Speaker 1: And you've also got a situation here where Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 1: Maybe if there's a depending on how this Bills game goes,

340
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Speaker 1: and depending how this game between the Steelers and Ravens

341
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Speaker 1: go for Lamar and then Allen and Mahomes, you could

342
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Speaker 1: see all of a sudden, Jalen Hurts kind of nudge

343
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Speaker 1: his way in there. It's something to monitor, something to

344
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Speaker 1: watch against.

345
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Speaker 4: But I get is it isn't Barkie the best player

346
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Speaker 4: on the Eagles offense though, like I mean, I think he.

347
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Speaker 1: Is, yes, But then but it's the same narrative of

348
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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry's carrying them Saquon bark was carrying in But

349
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Speaker 1: those guys are not up for the award. They're up

350
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Speaker 1: for Offensive Player of the Year. End of story. And

351
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Speaker 1: by the way, like that, that's still tight between him

352
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Speaker 1: and Barkley right now, between having and I and Barkley.

353
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Speaker 1: All right, let's go back to you. Well, let's go

354
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Speaker 1: to Denver where there might be a new running back

355
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Speaker 1: in town and people are very excited.

356
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Speaker 2: But maybe, just maybe, mister w what my my nickname

357
00:14:59,120 --> 00:14:59,360
Speaker 2: was it?

358
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Speaker 1: Is it the old?

359
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Speaker 2: That's my new nickname? By the way, is it the over?

360
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Speaker 3: Not?

361
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Speaker 2: On this one, Welsh is digging into an under odric

362
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Speaker 2: estimate under rushing yards because no, I'm not going to

363
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Speaker 2: do that here.

364
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Speaker 1: Okay, here's why I got the Javante. Last week, I

365
00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,040
Speaker 1: had the Javante thirty one and a half under.

366
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Speaker 2: I'll take this week. Here's his stat for you. Here's

367
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,960
Speaker 2: a real big analytical stat. Estimates never hit this ever,

368
00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 2: even last week in this awesome game that he had.

369
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Speaker 2: The yard total is fifty seven and a half.

370
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Speaker 1: But Welsh, in all fairness, that was a tough matchup.

371
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Speaker 2: It was a tough matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.

372
00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:37,440
Speaker 2: You're right he had.

373
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Speaker 1: Fourteen, the second or third best team against the run all.

374
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Speaker 2: And you want to know what they said after the game.

375
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:43,680
Speaker 2: They said, after the game, by the way, when they

376
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,280
Speaker 2: asked about Odrick Estimate, he's getting all these carries first

377
00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:48,760
Speaker 2: time over ten carries, and they said, yeah, we played

378
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:53,080
Speaker 2: the hot hand approach. The guy that was successful is

379
00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:54,680
Speaker 2: the guy that we were going to run out. But

380
00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,720
Speaker 2: they still completely believe in Javante Stupidly, they still completely

381
00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:00,000
Speaker 2: believe in McLaughlin.

382
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:00,720
Speaker 1: Dumb.

383
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,200
Speaker 2: They want all three of these backs to go. But

384
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,800
Speaker 2: they played the successful hotthand I might be wrong about this.

385
00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 2: That's fine. Number one waiver wire, Oh estimate is gonna

386
00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,320
Speaker 2: save my fantasy season. He's not gonna save my betting

387
00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:15,880
Speaker 2: season for a guy that has never hit this. It's

388
00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:18,280
Speaker 2: in a three back system with the Broncos, by the way,

389
00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:22,160
Speaker 2: with a quarterback that likes to run. I'm not doing it.

390
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,160
Speaker 2: I'm not doing that. I think this is a wildly

391
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,680
Speaker 2: big number for estimate when he has not even been

392
00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,840
Speaker 2: anointed a workhorse in this offense. Davante is still gonna

393
00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,160
Speaker 2: get some and as they proved, if any of those

394
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:36,520
Speaker 2: other guys get rolling, they're gonna go with them. If

395
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,000
Speaker 2: they're playing from behind on the falcons, it's not gonna

396
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:43,040
Speaker 2: go to estimate. It's gonna be mor McLaughlin or Javonte Williams.

397
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,560
Speaker 2: I don't like that number. I think it's way too high.

398
00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:50,120
Speaker 2: I am taking the under rushing yards on adreg estimay,

399
00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:54,760
Speaker 2: and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But no, absolutely not.

400
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:58,280
Speaker 1: Oh all right, so they now, look, you haven't had

401
00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,120
Speaker 1: an under yet. Eric, Are you gonna let welsh Is

402
00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:03,160
Speaker 1: run away with the only under here today? No?

403
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:05,800
Speaker 4: I am not, even though the estimate one I think

404
00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,200
Speaker 4: is is super polarized. I was actually I'm actually looking

405
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:09,720
Speaker 4: at the show sheet right now, and I'm looking at

406
00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,560
Speaker 4: what props Welsh has at in the early games. And

407
00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,159
Speaker 4: if he goes three and L I'm immediately going to

408
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:15,879
Speaker 4: bet the over on estimate because I know that he

409
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:17,120
Speaker 4: won't go five.

410
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,199
Speaker 2: Me and Ericson have this logic. By the way, just

411
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,679
Speaker 2: real quick, we were talking. We didn't have like the

412
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,840
Speaker 2: best early prop uh, you know whatever it was. And

413
00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:28,080
Speaker 2: then we were talking about the software where it was like,

414
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:30,840
Speaker 2: I know it's not like it's not like science, but

415
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,520
Speaker 2: like logically, if I went, like, you know, one in three,

416
00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:36,359
Speaker 2: I'm gonna smash my last one, so Ericson hits me

417
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,360
Speaker 2: up and he goes Wattle time because we both were

418
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:43,040
Speaker 2: not good. And then Wattle technically did hit like the

419
00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 2: odds of going zero to five or something like that

420
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 2: is bad. So we literally play that as like a

421
00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:49,840
Speaker 2: fun little extra. So yeah, if I go three and oh,

422
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:51,520
Speaker 2: then estimates for sure gonna.

423
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:53,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, estime is definitely gonna.

424
00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:55,480
Speaker 4: I mean I agree, like the estime number is it's

425
00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:57,199
Speaker 4: way too big at fifty seven a half. But at

426
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Speaker 4: the same time, like if he does get the work,

427
00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:01,719
Speaker 4: it is the falcon And yeah, I said, just pay

428
00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:04,440
Speaker 4: attention to all the picks for Welsh's in the early projections.

429
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:06,960
Speaker 2: Screw you to by the way, because like I cross

430
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,760
Speaker 2: reference to PFF. You want to know what estimates projected

431
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:13,480
Speaker 2: rushing yard total is this week on there sixty five

432
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:15,480
Speaker 2: fourteen yards.

433
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Speaker 3: Like people can't it's coming way under.

434
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,000
Speaker 2: The projections are really not going to help you in here,

435
00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:21,720
Speaker 2: so I'm going to just, you know, try to go

436
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:23,679
Speaker 2: with what I know, and it's not Denver brought those

437
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:25,160
Speaker 2: running backs. But yeah, sorry, I'm not.

438
00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,880
Speaker 1: The only under no no. I know Ericson likes under,

439
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 1: so give me an under Ericson.

440
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 4: All right, Alexander Madison under thirty eight and a half

441
00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:35,440
Speaker 4: rushing yards. I think that we're going to see Madison

442
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,040
Speaker 4: potentially not be the lead back for Las Vegas Raiders.

443
00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:40,200
Speaker 4: When we saw these team play a lot or last

444
00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 4: time in Week nine, you saw Madison and Zamir White

445
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,800
Speaker 4: actually split carries six apiece in the first half. Madison

446
00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 4: snaps fell to thirty nine percent. That was his lowest

447
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:51,239
Speaker 4: since Week four. If you just talked every interview that

448
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:53,960
Speaker 4: Antonio Pierce gives, he just brings up Samir White, even

449
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:55,720
Speaker 4: if they're not talking about He's always talking about the defense.

450
00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 4: Oh well, Zamir White. We want to get him going.

451
00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 4: We love Zamir White. And the fact that they got

452
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,680
Speaker 4: right of Luke Getsy. There's a new offensive coordinator. Getsy

453
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:06,439
Speaker 4: I think was a better fit with Alexander Madison in

454
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,239
Speaker 4: his scheme. So I think they're going to go back

455
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,360
Speaker 4: to Zamir White here. I'm gonna look at the matchup.

456
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,159
Speaker 4: I just I don't like it against the Dolphins. The

457
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 4: Dolphins defense delivered three straight unders to the running bicks

458
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 4: that they have faced over the last three weeks. And

459
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:19,359
Speaker 4: Madison has only gone over thirty eight rushing yards twice

460
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,199
Speaker 4: this season, and his most recent effort to do it,

461
00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 4: it took him twenty three carries to get to thirty

462
00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:25,600
Speaker 4: eight rushing yards.

463
00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 3: So he has been the king of inefficiency this year.

464
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,119
Speaker 4: And I think that anyone that has that confidence in

465
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,919
Speaker 4: Madison quote unquote confidence in Madison in fantasy, I think

466
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 4: you're going to be a Walley Pipped potentially here with

467
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 4: Samir White getting the majority of carries. So I'm going

468
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,119
Speaker 4: to take the under on Alexander.

469
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,199
Speaker 1: That reference a Wally pitp reference I did not.

470
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:45,399
Speaker 2: Can I point something to you real quick, Joe. I

471
00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 2: just want to point out, within the last three days,

472
00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:51,960
Speaker 2: I have done a WHO reference that Erickson did not know,

473
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,879
Speaker 2: and I did a I Am the Great corn Oio

474
00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 2: he did not know. But he just dropped a Wally

475
00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 2: Pip reference on but did not know the Great Cornholio

476
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:04,639
Speaker 2: or the Great Ric Flair.

477
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:09,119
Speaker 1: That's sad. What we're also said is that We've heard

478
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:11,880
Speaker 1: the whole Zemer White thing all year. It's week eleven

479
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,160
Speaker 1: and he hasn't had a game above fifty yards all year.

480
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,160
Speaker 1: I just want to check that out there. So there's

481
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 1: a fact for you everybody.

482
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:18,919
Speaker 3: I'm not saying he's going to go over his rushing

483
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 3: prop but now it's not gonna help. It's not gonna

484
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:21,320
Speaker 3: help Madison.

485
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,919
Speaker 1: No, that's understandable. That's fair. All right, Let's go to

486
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,119
Speaker 1: the next one here, which is Welsh. Back to you

487
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 1: for going to the Rams and Patriots. We're going to

488
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 1: go back to that game for Pokinakua. The number is

489
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 1: sixty nine and a half.

490
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,120
Speaker 2: Yes, sir, we're gonna ride the poka nakua train as

491
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:41,920
Speaker 2: was it. Deepro would say, the puka juice. We're all

492
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:43,920
Speaker 2: on it. He's hit this in two of his last

493
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 2: three games. Those two games that he hit it, by

494
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 2: the way, he said nine or more targets. Patriots are

495
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 2: eleventh in passing yards given up per game so far

496
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 2: this season, and he's just a major force in the offense.

497
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:56,399
Speaker 2: This is a pretty easy one. This is a low total.

498
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 2: Sixty nine and a half is the number he actually

499
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 2: moved up a yard from when I bet it it

500
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 2: might start ticking up a tiny bit there was right

501
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,639
Speaker 2: around it. I love that ten yard cushion. If I

502
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 2: can get a ten yard cushion between what the number

503
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 2: is and where multiple projections are going, it's something that's

504
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 2: that just feeds the target and that's where it's at.

505
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: The most projections have got him into the high seventies.

506
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,119
Speaker 2: So I like this playing into you know, seventy one,

507
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 2: seventy two if it went up there, But really, like

508
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 2: Puka Nakoua, they're gonna throw the ball a decent amount.

509
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 2: We know Puka is gonna get it. I'm not playing receptions, guys,

510
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 2: I'm playing receiving yards and taking it under seventy is

511
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 2: a no brainer for me with mister Pooka and Akoua.

512
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 1: All right, everybody, So there you go. So the over

513
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 1: on Nakua. Let's go to Bijon Robinson for our next

514
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,400
Speaker 1: prop here. So where are you going, Eric's and you're

515
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,360
Speaker 1: going rushing, You're going receiving how you can approached Bijon.

516
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 2: And we believe you.

517
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:47,160
Speaker 4: I'm taking the receiving yards over on Bijon Robinson over

518
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 4: twenty five and a half receiving yards. So Bijon is

519
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,159
Speaker 4: on a hot streak right now, four straight games at

520
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 4: least twenty eight receiving yards denver the season. Just last

521
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 4: week they allowed sixty five receiving yards to Kareem Hunt.

522
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 4: Hunt people got sixty five receiving yards against this defense.

523
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 4: The Broncos on the year top five defense in terms

524
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 4: of most receptions targets in yards led running backs because

525
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 4: they like the blitz a lot and they have good corners.

526
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 4: So when the receivers aren't open and the ball needs

527
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 4: to get out quick, where does it go to the

528
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 4: running back?

529
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins ain't trying to hold the ball back there.

530
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 4: He's gonna get it out quick, off that Achilles and

531
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 4: get it to b Jehan Robinson. And fun fact for

532
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 4: b John Robinson again, five consecutive games with at least

533
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 4: one hundred plus yards from scrimmage long as active streak

534
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 4: in the NFL per NFL next Gen Stats. What other

535
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 4: Falcons player has done that in terms of a six

536
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 4: game streak? Who's the last Falcons player.

537
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 1: To do it?

538
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 2: Guys say, what was the number? Again?

539
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 5: Yeah?

540
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,359
Speaker 3: Give one hundred yards from scrimmage six straight games? Who's

541
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:38,640
Speaker 3: the last?

542
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 2: Jamal Anderson Jamal Anderson. Oh I went first. He doesn't

543
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 2: even know Jamal Anderson is he played for the foul.

544
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 2: I can't do this anymore. Rick Flair, cornholy O and

545
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,640
Speaker 2: Jabal Anderson walk into a bar.

546
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 4: Okay, hey, you guys, ever heard of Julio Jones? Maybe

547
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 4: I'm actually gonna say Roddy White next.

548
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,439
Speaker 3: I mean, we need to go that back, like that

549
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 3: far back is Julio Jones.

550
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:03,959
Speaker 2: Well we're old, So we went back to like who

551
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 2: was the last, like really big.

552
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 1: Because I thought it was gonna be something like really

553
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 1: far back, you know, like it wasn't Julio Jones. Well,

554
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: Julio Jones used to get hurt all the time too,

555
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 1: so it's true.

556
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 3: How many times did he actually play six games in

557
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 3: a row?

558
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 1: That was my logic? Actually on there es actually that,

559
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: so there you go, good on it? All right? So

560
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:24,680
Speaker 1: anything else to.

561
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 3: Share on bijon Now I just take me over.

562
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 1: I like, all right, we got one more before we

563
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,360
Speaker 1: get to the touchdown calls of the week, and get ready, everybody,

564
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 1: it's time to make the climb. Just like Miley Cyrus,

565
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,120
Speaker 1: I give you the Welsh for the Ladder of the Week.

566
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 2: All right, We're gonna just get stretched here. We're gonna

567
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 2: get it out, all right. So the bet the first

568
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,919
Speaker 2: main bet here, and then we are laddering this player

569
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 2: like in Jalen Waddle last week, Debo Samuel ladder time.

570
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:57,479
Speaker 2: The number is fifty four and a half projected receiving yards.

571
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,199
Speaker 2: We got our ten point cushion. That is exactly what

572
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 2: we want. Now the receiving yard is going to pair

573
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 2: with the ladder. And here's what I'm going to give you.

574
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 2: One time in his career, Deebo's career versus the Seahawks,

575
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,679
Speaker 2: he has had under fifty yards in his entire career

576
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 2: against the Seahawks. I brought this up earlier in the

577
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 2: year ericson if you remember where I think it was

578
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 2: the Cardinals, and I was like, Debo eats the Cardinals,

579
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:27,959
Speaker 2: Deebo eats divisional opponents, he eats the Seahawks. So in general,

580
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 2: getting the targets, we know John Jennings kind of came up.

581
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 2: Deebo's going to get the ball in this. He's going

582
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 2: to go over the fifty four and a half now,

583
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:40,400
Speaker 2: pushing us further. Six of eight career games Deebo Samuel

584
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 2: has gone over one hundred yards against the Seahawks. So

585
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 2: in six of his total eight career games he has

586
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 2: gone over one hundred. He went over one hundred this year.

587
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 2: I believe on three receptions he's going to get more involved.

588
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 2: He makes huge plays. By the way, seven of eight

589
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 2: in his career he has beat this receiving yard total

590
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 2: against the Seahawks. Only one time he did not, and

591
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 2: I was like in twenty nineteen or something like that.

592
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 2: So from a career perspective, he's in. He wasn't as

593
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 2: highly involved last week. He's going to get more involved.

594
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 2: Bark Purty throws the ball a bunch. You can do

595
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 2: this against the Seahawks. I love just stationary the Deebo

596
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 2: Samuel receiving yard total. But I personally am climbing the

597
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 2: ladder with Debo. How I'm climbing it, I am betting

598
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 2: all of the steps, I'm skipping none. I'm going fifty

599
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 2: four point five. Then I'm going to the sixty on

600
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: DK it's plus one oh five seventies plus one sixty

601
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 2: five eighty ninety and one hundred up to five to

602
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 2: one on one hundred over And as I said last week,

603
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 2: and how I do ladders is the first ladder, you

604
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 2: do your unit or a little bit higher. Then you

605
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 2: keep pairing it down. Once you get into the seventy

606
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 2: eighty ninety hundreds, get into like half units in quarter

607
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,160
Speaker 2: units because you don't want to be four unit, five

608
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 2: six unit invested are really scary. You don't want to

609
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 2: bet a unit on every single one of these unless

610
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 2: you know you like to really play with fire. But

611
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 2: I love this because Deebo every few weeks is gonna

612
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 2: have one of these big explosive plays. We know he

613
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 2: can break off seventy yarders. He's the type of guy

614
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 2: that can hit three or four of these ladders in

615
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 2: one play, and he's gonna get involved, and he kills

616
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 2: the Seahawks when he does it. Love debo for the

617
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 2: receiving yard and the ladder. Ericson, are you coming with me?

618
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: Uh?

619
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 3: Talk to me at four o'clock when I've seen.

620
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,439
Speaker 2: So if I if I'm if, I'm always three in

621
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 2: the earth. Oh gonna you're gonna get all the steps

622
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 2: the ladder. Okay, so hold on, So Joe, are you

623
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 2: coming with me? No?

624
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,360
Speaker 1: No, I just don't trust these San Francisco forty nine ers.

625
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: They spread the ball round to match the CMC's back

626
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 1: and all that stuff. So it's I like the theory. I

627
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 1: think again, the information is really good. If I have

628
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 1: a ladder bet this week, and I know it sounds

629
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: crazy because it's already high number, I think it's pickings

630
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 1: against the Baltimore Ravens where it just goes bananas. It

631
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,679
Speaker 1: goes well over one hundred. And what I would do

632
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 1: is make a small ladder, maybe bigger than the step ladder.

633
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 1: It's like go one to those like the little Giants,

634
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: maybe one of those where I bet two units on

635
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 1: the first two numbers and then one and then half

636
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,199
Speaker 1: some quarters, you know, if you want to keep going there.

637
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 1: But I think he's gonna get over one hundred personally

638
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 1: this week against Baltimore because everybody does. Because Baltimore is

639
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 1: terrible in that secondary and they don't seem to have

640
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 1: an answer. There's nothing they could do to fix it.

641
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 1: Another thing that's really difficult is the Chiefs run defense,

642
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 1: and that pertains the James Cook this week. So ericson,

643
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: I give you the number fifty seven and a half,

644
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:31,640
Speaker 1: what do you want to do with it? For James Cook?

645
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 4: Taking the under on James Cook rushing yards this week.

646
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 4: Cook has been very boom or bust in terms of

647
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 4: his rushing yard production. So he has five games with

648
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 4: seventy plus rushing yards, but then he also has four

649
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,120
Speaker 4: games with forty five or fewer rushing yards. So given

650
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 4: that the Chiefs have allowed just one running back to

651
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 4: get to fifty eight yards against them all season, I

652
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 4: think that this is the week where you see the

653
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 4: underwhelming James Cook show up in terms of the rushing department.

654
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:56,359
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna go under on Ja. This is actually

655
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:57,879
Speaker 4: one of my favorite ones. Just I think that the

656
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 4: line is it's not giving too much credit or enough

657
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 4: credit to the Chiefs defense and the fact that James

658
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 4: Cook has in bad matchups he just doesn't he doesn't hit.

659
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 4: And I know that Cook as you looked at as

660
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 4: oh he's as explosive rusher, Well, I mean that really

661
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 4: hasn't been his MLS. I mean they've been running up

662
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 4: in between the tackles a lot this year more obviously

663
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 4: kind of using the passing game. So I like the

664
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 4: under here with James Cook, and again back in the

665
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 4: Chiefs think they're gonna win, So take the under on

666
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 4: the Bills running back.

667
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 1: All Right, everybody it's time to get to some touchdowns

668
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 1: here and then a little boxing at the end. The

669
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,400
Speaker 1: touchdown score report is available by the way at betting

670
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 1: pros dot com slash touchdown. So if you're looking for

671
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 1: an edge in your touchdown bets, that's the place to

672
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 1: do it. Again betting pros dot com slash touchdown. That

673
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 1: is the spot for the latest touchdown prop analysis. Use

674
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 1: the projections, use the tools again over betting Pros. Think

675
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 1: your sportsbooks for free and get in there and betting

676
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 1: touchdowns this week. You know him in on pickings, so

677
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 1: the latter on pickings with the touchdown, that's what I

678
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: want to do. I did not get to the show

679
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 1: planned first today Welsh did, which means he gets to

680
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 1: take George Pickens. So let's talk about it. Let's talk

681
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 1: about the number and who else you like this? Cord eleven.

682
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am going with George Pickens at plus one

683
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 2: thirty five. I believe over the last four weeks, if

684
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 2: I if I saw this correctly, the Ravens have given

685
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 2: up the most receiving touchdowns. Obviously we've just kind of

686
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 2: played this out where I think Pittsburgh is playing from behind.

687
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 2: You can throw against Baltimore. George Pickens is their number

688
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 2: one option. I think they're also susceptible against tight ends.

689
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 2: I don't know if firemuth is someone would I would

690
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 2: want to play, but I think it really works and

691
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 2: it's beneficial to George Pickens and you're getting good plus money.

692
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 2: So plus one thirty five is like a slam for

693
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 2: George Pickens. The other one Anthony Richardson, who's back. Don't

694
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 2: love Anthony Richardson, but you're getting plus two fifteen on

695
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 2: in any time touchdown for him. I do not believe

696
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 2: that he's going to be able to rush in a touchdown,

697
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 2: but from a matchup perspective, they're giving up the most

698
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 2: rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, I believe over the last four weeks.

699
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 2: So Richardson gonna slam it in himself has not been

700
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 2: able to prove to throw. It's not a bad matchup.

701
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 2: This will be about what he does. But over two

702
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 2: to one on Anthony Rai Richardson for an anytime touchdown

703
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 2: is a little bit of my deeper play. George Pickens

704
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 2: is my favorite play. Those are my two touchdown calls.

705
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 1: I'm fascinating to see the Colts and the Jets this

706
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 1: week and what those teams look like, you know, because

707
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 1: you just don't know, like what do the Jets look

708
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 1: like after that other just brutal loss for them. You know,

709
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 1: where Mike Williams had more points than the whole Jets offense.

710
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 1: I love saying, or as many will be fair as many,

711
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 1: and he had more touchdowns than the Jets offense. I

712
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 1: guess that's the more fair thing to say. But let's

713
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: talk about Ericson's here. You've got Jordan love back, you know,

714
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 1: hopefully healthy here, and I think you have a wide

715
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 1: receiver from Green Bay that you're excited about.

716
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 2: Yeah.

717
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 4: I like Christian Watson plus three hundred anytime touchdown. Look,

718
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 4: he's second in the team in end zone targets. He's

719
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 4: actually the team leader in terms of air yards, in

720
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 4: terms of targets over the last two weeks. So the

721
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 4: Packers have one of the highest passing touchdown rates in

722
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 4: the NFL. So when they get close to scoring, they

723
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 4: usually throw the ball. So I think Christian Watson again,

724
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 4: he's also fully healthy. That's been the problem with Christian Wattson,

725
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 4: just not confident of his health if is there not.

726
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 4: But this Watson slashed on Tavian Wick's role. Whoever is

727
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 4: in that role gets a lot of high value opportunities

728
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 4: in this offense. So I think Christian Wat's getting undervalued

729
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 4: at plus three hundred to be on the receiving end

730
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 4: of a a Jordan Love touchdown.

731
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 3: So I like him.

732
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 4: And then my other one is the more wild card,

733
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 4: Parker Washington. For those that aren't familiar with Parker Washington,

734
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 4: he is the starting slot receiver for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

735
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 4: If you listen to the Best Bet Show, you know

736
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 4: I love the over in that game. I think the

737
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 4: Jaguars are going to score a touchdown at some point

738
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 4: in that game, and the Lions give up the most

739
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 4: Fantasy points per game two slot receivers. That's who Parker

740
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 4: Washington is in this offense. So even though he had

741
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 4: zero targets last week, I mean you're getting the value

742
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 4: on that because he's plus seven to fifty for him

743
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 4: to score in any time touchdown. So even if it

744
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 4: comes to the fourth quarter in total garbage time, I

745
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 4: think Washington finds the Enzo.

746
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: All right, So there you go, Parker Washington, Christian Watson.

747
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: I hope Watson hints because I gotta flex him in

748
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: a couple of leagues. All right. For me, I'm sticking

749
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: with my game of the week here. It's the Chiefs

750
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 1: of the Bills. This is always a good time, lots

751
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,479
Speaker 1: of points. Typically every time these two teams meet up,

752
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 1: it's musty television, and I'm gonna be glued to the

753
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 1: couch for twenty five Eastern time to watch this one.

754
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 1: And I'm also gonna have some bets on it. Of course,

755
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 1: you already know it's the upset special of the week.

756
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 1: You already know all the Chiefs money line wagers, all

757
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 1: the Chiefs parlays, everything that I got going on there.

758
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 1: But I also want to bet some touchdowns. I want

759
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 1: to take Josh Allen on the other side plus one

760
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 1: forty to go ahead and find a way to get

761
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 1: in the en zone, because I believe he will, especially

762
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 1: down some players who aren't really healthy right now. A

763
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 1: lot of health issues going on. Key on Coleman, Marrii Cooper,

764
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 1: lots of problems here for Buffalo, which means what Josh

765
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 1: Allen takes the ball in his own hands and finds

766
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: the end zone. You're getting plus money on this two

767
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 1: plus one forty. They get shocking. Also in that same

768
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 1: game at plus one sixty Travis Kelcey, why because these

769
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 1: guys show up. The gamers show up at go time.

770
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 1: As a buddy of mine used to always say, and

771
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey with Patrick Mahomes, sometimes everything old is new again.

772
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 1: So give me this situation here in this game all in,

773
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,160
Speaker 1: just just bet the hell out of this one. That's

774
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 1: what you want to do. So that's week eleven in

775
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: a nutshell. Boys, I know we're gonna I know I'm

776
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: watching it. I don't know if Erickson's watching it. I

777
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 1: know Welsh is gonna watch it. Tyson versus our guy,

778
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 1: Jake Paul there So, as an older person, I just

779
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 1: want Mike Tyson to win. Therefore, I'm gonna bet Mike Tyson.

780
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: The only theory I can give you with somebody who

781
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: was the grandson of a boxer, somebody who spent twenty

782
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 1: years in the world of combat. I will tell you

783
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: this from watching these two guys train. The one thing

784
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 1: I always see about Jake Paul a little bit of,

785
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 1: you know, just unbalanced when he throws punches. He's always

786
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 1: off balance. And when you have a fighter with the

787
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 1: agent experience of Mike Tyson, that's a very dangerous thing.

788
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 1: There's one mistake where you're off balance. Next thing you know,

789
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 1: the footwork's not there. Next thing you know, you're on

790
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 1: the canvas. It's one thing I'm hoping for it. I

791
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: want a Mike Tyson knockout. I'm rooting for it. I

792
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 1: don't know if I'm going to get it. Welsh, Any

793
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: thoughts and feelings about the Tyson Jake Pual.

794
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 2: Fine, Yeah, as somebody with zero boxing experience whatsoever or

795
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 2: in hold and family ties to boxing, but has played

796
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 2: lots of Mike Tyson knockout punch, so I do have

797
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 2: some experience there.

798
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 1: I saw the meme by the way, where it's Jack

799
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: Glass Joe against Mike Tyson. That's very funny.

800
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 2: Of course, I want Mike Tyson to win, but he's

801
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 2: sixty years old, it's fifty eight to fifty six whatever

802
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 2: he is. When the fourth round comes, he's going to

803
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:25,359
Speaker 2: be gassed. I don't think it's far fetched to think

804
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 2: that there's a storyline build to this that Tyson knocks

805
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 2: Jake Paul down to the ground. Jake gets up, wins

806
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,720
Speaker 2: seven of the ten rounds, but in the tenth round,

807
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 2: Mike Tyson bites him or pulls off a finger or

808
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 2: does just something crazy and it's a DQ, and Jake

809
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 2: Paul wins by DQ and it sets up the grand

810
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 2: finale of Mike Tyson Jake Paul two because Tyson knocked

811
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 2: him down, but Paul won the rounds and it ended

812
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:57,439
Speaker 2: in some dysfunctional thing. There's no there is a chance

813
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 2: Mike Tyson could win. But they made the gloves light thicker,

814
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 2: they made the rounds shorter, they have less rounds, So

815
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 2: what do those things do? The less rounds help, and

816
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 2: the time helps Tyson. The padded gloves help Paul. I

817
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 2: don't know how Tyson's gonna be able to last eight

818
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 2: rounds of doing this. I don't know how you can't.

819
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:20,759
Speaker 1: Eight rounds is a long time for Paul's a bad bet.

820
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:24,319
Speaker 2: It's like minus two p thirty five Erickson. I'm betting Paul.

821
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 1: If my thoughts, cares or feelings about this one.

822
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 3: It's probably just gonna be underwhelming because this is what

823
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 3: always happens. They always hype fights up all the time

824
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 3: and then.

825
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:34,799
Speaker 1: It's good television.

826
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:36,959
Speaker 3: It doesn't it doesn't matter, of course. Yeah, they're gonna

827
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 3: tell you that beforehand. It gets gonna be hyped up.

828
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:40,800
Speaker 3: It's on Netflix, it's gonna.

829
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 4: Be said, you know what they should do on to

830
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,479
Speaker 4: to to stream your favorite Christmas movie and then it's.

831
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 3: Like, oh, well, I gotta I gotta watch my touch

832
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:47,879
Speaker 3: for help. Paul.

833
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:49,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know what they should do. They should put

834
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 2: one of those you know those things people wear for steps.

835
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 2: They should do that in this and you should be

836
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 2: able to bet how many steps between Tyson and Paul

837
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 2: are gonna have, just like you know, were they gonna

838
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,720
Speaker 2: get ten thousand steps in because they're gonna answer around

839
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 2: the entire mounth My god, we are you.

840
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 1: Having everybody that's week eleven in nutshell? I don't see

841
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 1: what happens. We'll recap it next week. I'm sure here

842
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 1: on the show that'll do it for us. But the

843
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for the Welsh and

844
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:16,280
Speaker 1: Andrew ericson I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time, Gidz.

845
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

846
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,800
Speaker 5: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

847
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 5: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

848
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 5: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

849
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 5: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

850
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 5: channel at YouTube dot com Slash Betting Pros