1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:06,880 Speaker 1: Elements that the United States leads in. Setting example, during 2 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: the privacy is in the same stage now as environmentalism 3 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:12,120 Speaker 1: was when you perhaps when you were younger, that it's 4 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: one of those issues that sort of people who are 5 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:15,319 Speaker 1: going to come and work at Microsoft, the sort of 6 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: people are gonna work at Apple. It's it's becoming as 7 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: fundamental to them as greenery it was to a previous generation. Well, 8 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: everybody wants uh to feel like their information is kept private, 9 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 1: particularly because more and more of your activity is in 10 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 1: there in that digital log. Then again, when people are 11 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 1: empowered by technology in terrorist activities, they can't It's not 12 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 1: just that they can kill a few people, it's through nuclear, 13 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 1: biological they could kill a lot. So we do want 14 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 1: the government to be out there trying to stop those 15 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: things from happening. So it's not completely in one direction 16 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: that that you you have to if you look back 17 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: at history, the early liberals, they the ninety century liberals 18 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 1: refused to open people's letters of anarchists and more than terrorists, 19 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 1: because they were frightened that that would be somehow illiberal. 20 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 1: Do you think the sort of definition of what liberalism 21 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 1: is you've generally seen yourself as a sort of liberal 22 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: is changing. I think that government has always been there 23 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: to try and maintain order and having some awareness of 24 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: what's going on. The UK strikes the balance different differently 25 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:33,040 Speaker 1: than the US because there was some degree of terrorist activity. 26 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 1: The idea of having cameras in London, people are comfortable 27 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 1: with that. I don't think that's likely to happen in 28 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 1: the US. The US will always be probably wanting to 29 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 1: make sure the government doesn't overreach it. More than more 30 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: than most places. You've used technology to help empower and 31 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: connect the developing world. There are fears that that kind 32 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: of connection does lead to terrorist type of behavior. How 33 00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: do we manage that? How do we control that in 34 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: a positive way and use technology for good? Bill, you 35 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: yourself have said at one point, maybe you're fourteen or sixteen, 36 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: did a little hacking. But I think I think we 37 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:12,919 Speaker 1: were so focused on one of the one little time. 38 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's a tragedy when these things happened, 39 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:17,519 Speaker 1: but it's a it's a small number of people. Look 40 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: the amazing stuff technology does. When I see technology at 41 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,359 Speaker 1: use at scale in Tanzany and Kenya and the Philippines, 42 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: and you see people saving a dollar a day, saving 43 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: two dollars a day saying, oh, my gosh, I actually, 44 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 1: during the drought season still have the school fees now 45 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 1: on my phone to pay to keep my child in school. 46 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: That has a profoundly different effect on society. Have millions 47 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 1: of kids going to school, and you have women saying 48 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: for the first time, I actually have access to a 49 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 1: bank account, I have my own money. I don't have 50 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 1: to renegotiate with my husband over the household finances. That 51 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 1: is hugely a forward positive momentum. So I think instead 52 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: of us always focused on the negative, we ought to 53 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 1: say where is technology enhancing the world? Not just in 54 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:02,079 Speaker 1: the ways we're seeing the United States worldwide? Well to 55 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 1: counteract that, what do you say when the woman from Flint, 56 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 1: Michigan writes you a letter and says, you're making extraordinary 57 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 1: advancements in Tanzania for those women, But what about me? 58 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 1: I lost my job four years ago at a Ford plant. 59 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: I don't have the skills for the job that they 60 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 1: replaced it with, and my home is now valued at zero. 61 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: What do we say to that woman who's going to 62 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 1: help her? We say that both are coming together of 63 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 1: philanthropy and government and private sector, that we do care 64 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 1: about people in the United States, and we're trying to 65 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:33,799 Speaker 1: rebuild the country in those ways, and so that's why 66 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: we also put money into the U S system, and 67 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: we work with governments to really help retrain people through 68 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: community college is one of the things we do, making 69 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: sure kids get a college education. You've got to do both, 70 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: and we feel like with our own philanthropy, we're focused 71 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 1: on the part of the world where most people don't focus, 72 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: but we do focus in the US too. Are you 73 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 1: sure you don't want to run for president? Definitely not. 74 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: Thank you so so much. What an honor and a privilege. 75 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 1: Bill and Melinda Gates a Randa Gates Foundation, Thank you 76 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 1: very good. Stephanie Rule and John Michaels wait there with 77 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 1: Bill and Melinda Gates in a conversation, without question, the 78 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: important discussion there of the apple I'm gonna call it 79 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: apple and government uproar that is beginning now and certainly 80 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: has galvanized all of technology. And you heard Mr Gates 81 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:26,359 Speaker 1: step delicately around those UH many issues. We UH have 82 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: made a history over the years of stepping delicately with 83 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 1: David Kelly of JP Morgan UH with with all that 84 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: we see of economics, and he joins us, on, David, 85 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 1: it's such a good thing, and that's what we do 86 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: with surveillance. Have Gary Schilling on, and then you want 87 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: Gary has a tone of disinflation and deflation. He says 88 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: there's a greater probability, not a certitude, that service sector 89 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: inflation would roll over and give us a new element 90 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: of disinflation in this nation. You aggressively pushed against the 91 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:04,359 Speaker 1: at looking at the dragon not seen in decades, which 92 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: is outright inflation. Where is dr shilling off the market? Well, 93 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:09,679 Speaker 1: I think you just have to look at the tightness 94 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 1: of the labor market. I mean, what we're seeing is 95 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:14,800 Speaker 1: the unemployment rates at four point nine percent. There's a 96 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: lot of nonsense spoken about how this is not the 97 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:19,039 Speaker 1: real unemployment rate. And if you look at all the 98 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:21,159 Speaker 1: other slack in the labor market, there isn't much good 99 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 1: slack left. If you Home Depot didn't show me slack 100 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: this morning, I don't know if you're aware of this. Yeah, 101 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 1: thank you, Mike. Home Depot was like a Bob Goodman, 102 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 1: your mentor over Putnam a million years ago. It was 103 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 1: like a six percent nominal GDP report. Well, yeah, and 104 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 1: and GDP is not growing that fast. But but what 105 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: we do know is that the capability of this economy 106 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: from supply side is probably only to go about one 107 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 1: and a half percent. So if we're growing more than 108 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 1: one and a half percent, the labor market is going 109 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: to tighten. Wagegoath's gonna pick up. And there is such 110 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 1: complacency about this issue, you know, as as I said 111 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 1: in a note earlier on this week, it's like this, 112 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 1: this inflation dragon's been sleeping and we're stomping on its 113 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: taible and we're pulling it's whiskers, and we think would 114 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 1: be kind of fun if it woke up. I mean, 115 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 1: I think inflation will actually come back a bit next year. 116 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 1: And even as a fair titans, I think inflation will 117 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 1: come back in the United States. So we shouldn't be 118 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 1: too complacent about it. How much inflation, in other words, uh, 119 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 1: do we have scope for as Bill Dudley and some 120 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 1: others have suggested running the economy hot for a little while. Well, 121 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: you know, I'm tempted to to talk talk about inflation 122 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:29,279 Speaker 1: the way Milton Friedman used to, which is that a 123 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 1: little bit of inflation is like a touch of pregnancy. Um, 124 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 1: So it's that radio. You can, Yes, you can. It's 125 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: it's just got nothing wrong with that at all. But uh, 126 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: you know, I don't I think we can. Yes, we can. Look, 127 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 1: we can run the economy hot a little bit, but 128 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: that's not really going to deal with the basic structural 129 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 1: problems we have. We we don't have we don't have 130 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 1: productivity growth, and we don't have labor force growth, and 131 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: we won't do corporate tax reform, we won't do immigration reforms. 132 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 1: So we're stuck with these problems. Running the economy house 133 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: will just in the end, I think Coles the FED 134 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 1: to have to play catch up. Um, So I don't 135 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 1: mind them, mind the the the economy holt, but it's 136 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:08,720 Speaker 1: not going to deal with the fundamental problem. David David 137 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: Kelly with us. This is wonderful. What we like best 138 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 1: about surveillance is the back and forth of uh informed 139 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 1: in collegial debate. This morning, Bloomberg Surveillance launt you by Investco. 140 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: Factor based strategies can help investors focus on high quality, 141 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: low volatility and more. Learn more and investco dot com 142 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: slash high conviction. Michael McKee and Tom Keane were thrilled 143 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: to bring you David Kelly is with Jake Pete Morgan 144 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: Funds with an optimistic view on the American economy futures 145 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:47,240 Speaker 1: negative five. This is Bloomberg's surveillance coming up. With all 146 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 1: due respect. Highlight brought you by Landroper. If it's in 147 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 1: your nature to cast off the every day and seek adventure, 148 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: the Discovery Sport was built to help your search. Visit 149 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 1: Landromer tri state dot com for special offers during the 150 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: only Adventure Sales event. Land Rover Above and Beyond