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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we.

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Speaker 1: Go spreading the corn. Ten seconds of matings, then just

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Speaker 1: go throw the under the basket.

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Speaker 2: Under the basket, it's the croup for the wind God.

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Speaker 1: A miracle.

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Speaker 2: Up the water. Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 2: Bett MGM. I am your host Jim Root, joined by

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Speaker 2: the rest of the three man Weave crew, Matt Cox

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Speaker 2: and Kai McEwan. We're here to preview the weirdness that

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Speaker 2: is this year's Final four. Wow, We've got some wild

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Speaker 2: teams in here, some wild seatings, all kinds of stuff

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Speaker 2: to get into with that. Relatively surprised. We don't have Houston,

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Speaker 2: we don't have BAM, we don't have Kansas trying to

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Speaker 2: defend their national title. Instead, we have FAU, San Diego State, Miami,

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Speaker 2: and Yukon and we're just gonna jump right into that.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna talk each of the games chronological order, so

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Speaker 2: FAU and San Diego State first. We're gonna mix in

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Speaker 2: any prop discussions we like, talk about the spreads. The

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Speaker 2: total is gonna get into the futures market, see if

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Speaker 2: there's any value there and then also talk most Outstanding

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Speaker 2: player also available at bet MGM. So check those odds out.

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Speaker 2: Let's get right into it, guys. FAU San Diego State

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Speaker 2: six h nine pm Eastern on Saturday evening. Very surprised

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Speaker 2: both these teams are here, Matthew, But we have San

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Speaker 2: Diego State a slight favorite right now? What are you

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Speaker 2: looking at in this game? What intrigues you? The Aztecs

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Speaker 2: minus one and a half minus two. Give me your

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Speaker 2: your gut reactions with this matchup?

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Speaker 3: I love it for my ales, Jim, Like, how many

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Speaker 3: times have they been around to pick them in this

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Speaker 3: tournament run? You know, you go back to Memphis your

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Speaker 3: last round of Kansas State Tennessee. They were obviously a

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Speaker 3: little more of a bigger dog in that game, an

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Speaker 3: FDU have more of the favorite role. Just look at

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Speaker 3: those two incidents, right You have the plus one ish

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Speaker 3: spread against Memphis, the plus one is twis pread against

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Speaker 3: KSE State.

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Speaker 1: I think people.

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Speaker 3: Disrespect them both those games. And now lo and behold again,

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Speaker 3: same type of spread here at San Diego State. They

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Speaker 3: already played Kay in my opinion, a bigger, batter version

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Speaker 3: of the Astexs and Tennessee now Tennessee's offense went really

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Speaker 3: a wall in that game. But that's not to say

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Speaker 3: the Astechs isn't you know, isn't prone to the same

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Speaker 3: types of les. I think they've just been better at

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Speaker 3: manufacturing points than Tennessee was against FAU in that game.

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Speaker 3: But FAU is just awesome, deep loaded defensively, even though

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Speaker 3: they're not super big, and I think they're actually they're

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Speaker 3: going to stand up to the toughness and physicality that

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Speaker 3: the Astechs bring, and I think they're fine playing in

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Speaker 3: a gross, grimy type of affair. So yep, I'm going

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Speaker 3: back to the FAU well here, Kaim of King. I

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Speaker 3: think it's just a good matchup and they've been they've

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Speaker 3: kind of proven they can already prevail in this tournament

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Speaker 3: against the similar matchup in Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, I think it's a great matchup for it

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Speaker 1: for you because they've already played three ridiculously physical teams,

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Speaker 1: three teams that win by physicality in Memphis, in k State,

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Speaker 1: in Tennessee. I think San Diego State's pretty close to

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Speaker 1: Tennessee in terms of style wise and the way they

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Speaker 1: want to win. It's going to be a war. Can

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Speaker 1: FAU handle a Fourth World War here going to battle.

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Speaker 1: I tend to think they can. They're one of the

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Speaker 1: deeper teams in the country. Again, like I've said multiple times,

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Speaker 1: one of the more difficult teams to prep for on

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Speaker 1: a short turnaround because of how many guys they have

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Speaker 1: that can be you don't know who is going to

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Speaker 1: be their best player on a given night. My one

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Speaker 1: concern is FAU is an analytical team. They run teams

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Speaker 1: off the line, they don't allow layups. San Diego State

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Speaker 1: they love shooting mid range jumpers and they're pretty good

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Speaker 1: at it. Guys like Matt Bradley, Darien Trammell, they live

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Speaker 1: in the mid range. They love it. It can be

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Speaker 1: very difficult to consistently win with that style of offense,

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Speaker 1: and we've seen San Diego State stagnate before, but heck

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Speaker 1: against FAU it might just work, and we've seen them

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Speaker 1: shoot well in the tournament. Ultimately, Jim, I'm going FAU

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Speaker 1: plus two here. I love this squad, and again they've

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Speaker 1: proven themselves in more before they can do it again.

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Speaker 2: All right, question for you guys real quick. You both

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Speaker 2: sound like you like FAU right now. Plus one and

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Speaker 2: a half minus one oh five on bet MGM. Would

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Speaker 2: you prefer that with the less juice or do you

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Speaker 2: want to get to two?

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Speaker 3: No, I'd want the two, okay, Matt, Yeah you wanted

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Speaker 3: to because I do think this is going to be

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Speaker 3: lower scoring game.

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Speaker 1: Jim and there are a lot of people are on

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Speaker 1: the under.

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Speaker 3: I think they have a good read and how the

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Speaker 3: two teams match up, just to all the more reason

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Speaker 3: to get that key number in two.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would wait for two or look for two,

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Speaker 1: hunt for two?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, makes sense. Total one thirty one and a half.

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Speaker 2: I tend to agree with these guys. It will be

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Speaker 2: more of a slog akin to that fau Tennessee game

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Speaker 2: that was played in a half court. Very brutal, very physical.

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Speaker 2: That's been every San Diego State game. I'm curious if

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Speaker 2: on a bigger stage with everybody watching, if there's some

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Speaker 2: tendency for the officials to call a little bit more

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Speaker 2: and say, look, we're not going to let San Diego

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Speaker 2: State turn this game into a muck fight. But that's

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Speaker 2: pretty much every one of their games, so I could

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Speaker 2: see that still being the case, even if the rests

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Speaker 2: try to insert themselves early. Cay, you mentioned the mid

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Speaker 2: range proclivity for San Diego State. Per Hoop Matt, they're

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Speaker 2: twenty first in the country in the amount of shots

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Speaker 2: they take in the mid range, just over a third

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Speaker 2: of their shots. They take a lot there. Some of

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Speaker 2: those are jumpers and some of those are kind of

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Speaker 2: mid post type touches. They got a lot of those

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Speaker 2: against Creighton, playing that drop coverage, letting you get to

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Speaker 2: that free throw line, daring you to shoot from there.

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Speaker 2: I felt like they made a million passes, Matt, from

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Speaker 2: the free throw line to the post, like really really

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Speaker 2: close bounce passes into a contested post touch. Then they

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Speaker 2: would get a little quick turnover the right over the

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Speaker 2: left shoulder with a rope or Ladie or Johnson, just

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Speaker 2: trying to get quick touches in there. I think that

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Speaker 2: will be there again against FAU, Matt. You talked about

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Speaker 2: seeing this team earlier FAU, and a weakness or potentially

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Speaker 2: a weakness was posting up their fore man or posting

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Speaker 2: up a four man against Nellie Davis or Elijah Martin.

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Speaker 2: I kind of like that for a player. Prop here

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Speaker 2: Keisha Johnson. Seven and a half is his total. Maybe

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Speaker 2: you go him, maybe you go Ladie, but he's been

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Speaker 2: playing more center, kind of in a platoon with Mensa.

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Speaker 2: So I think Johnson might be worth a look, Matt,

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Speaker 2: what say you there?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I think that position is is where Tennessee alted in

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Speaker 3: their matchup?

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Speaker 1: Right? They started off what are you doing?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 3: So I mean Kama was completely a wall, not a

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Speaker 3: part of the offense at all, just kind of lost

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Speaker 3: in the shuffle. And even Plovitch was dominating early and

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Speaker 3: they went away from him as well. So I think

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Speaker 3: Brian Dutchell looks at that tape and says, Okay, that's

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Speaker 3: where Tennessee went wrong. Is Mensa going to dominate in

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Speaker 3: the block? Hands golden? Now, I don't think that's just

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Speaker 3: like a you know, a go to dominant low postcorp.

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Speaker 1: But you're right, who's that?

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Speaker 2: Fore?

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Speaker 1: Man? Is it Johnson? Jim? Is it led?

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Speaker 3: Potentially? They kind of wrote to in a bunch of

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Speaker 3: guys in there. You're right, though, I think positionally, if

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Speaker 3: you're looking to get an ASTech, maybe you're betting on

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Speaker 3: the Matt Bradley bounce back.

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Speaker 1: I'm not.

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Speaker 3: Maybe you're betting on the Darian Tremuel continues to ride

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Speaker 3: this wave. I'm not especially Fau's deep tenacious guards. But

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Speaker 3: you're right, that's the sawt spot in this defense. Even

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Speaker 3: Dusty May himself has admitted this right multiple times throughout

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Speaker 3: the season.

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Speaker 1: He's talked about how that's been kind of a blind

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Speaker 1: spot they have to cover up. Dutcher is a great

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Speaker 1: game planner.

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Speaker 3: I think he goes right to that avenue question is

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Speaker 3: who's beneficiary, right Johnson Ladie maybe kind of sprinkled out

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Speaker 3: there as sort of a portfolio, a positional portfolio of sorts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, as there are Ladis rebounds prop out there. I

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Speaker 1: do think FAA's can be just fine on the offensive glass.

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Speaker 1: They grabbed like forty percent of their misses against every

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Speaker 1: team they faced the tournament so far, and a lot

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Speaker 1: of those teams can really rebound the ball. But the

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Speaker 1: defensive end, Laddie is a pretty big monster, frankly, and

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Speaker 1: if he plays the four, he's gonna have avenues to

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Speaker 1: get rebounds. I kind of think Matt Bradley's prop, his

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Speaker 1: points prop is a little bit deflated. We know he

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Speaker 1: hasn't played very well these last couple of games in

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Speaker 1: the tournament. We know he's capable of playing well. His

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Speaker 1: first team All Mountain West guy, he hasn't been their

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Speaker 1: best player all season. Maybe he bounces back here again

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Speaker 1: fa tons of guards throughout him, but food for thought there.

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Speaker 2: I'm intrigued by your de rebound prop. It is five

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Speaker 2: and a half on the book. I'm looking at plus

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Speaker 2: one hundred to go over, and in recent games he's

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Speaker 2: had six, six, four, ten, ten, so very you know,

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Speaker 2: liable to go over that number, especially against somewhat of

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Speaker 2: a smaller front line that could be vulnerable, especially on

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Speaker 2: the offensive glass, where he's had three one, one, three

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Speaker 2: five on the offensive class. So you just need a

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Speaker 2: couple of the defensive end and it should certainly push

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Speaker 2: him over. I like that look as well. Bradley. I

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Speaker 2: have a hard time figuring out because he's looked frustrated

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Speaker 2: and also has been kind of playing less because of

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Speaker 2: how frustrated he's looked. Maybe Dutcher will lean on him

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Speaker 2: more in this situation, but they do have a bunch

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Speaker 2: of guards to throw on him, and Tremell and Butler

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Speaker 2: are playing a little bit better. Maybe you want Seko

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Speaker 2: out there for spacing. I don't know. It's hard to figure.

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Speaker 2: Parish had some open looks against Creighton and just threw

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Speaker 2: up some absolute bricks, So maybe.

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Speaker 1: Maybe games against Firm and Alva.

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Speaker 2: That was weird.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that was oddy, right bad. Yeah, Well, let's say

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Speaker 1: you continue to brick shots like SDSU's former four opponents

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Speaker 1: that have shot seventeen percent from three.

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Speaker 2: It's insane. It's insane. It makes threes against them. We

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Speaker 2: don't treat shot quality as bible here, but we do

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Speaker 2: use it as something to look at. Alabama scored sixty

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Speaker 2: four points against San Diego State, Kai, Do you know

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Speaker 2: what their total was per shot quality? Eighty eighty nine

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Speaker 2: eighty nine. It should have been eighty nine to eighty four.

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Speaker 2: Alabama win pershot quality. They are expected to score eighteen

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Speaker 2: more points from the three point line, which makes sense

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Speaker 2: to me. They were three of twenty seven. Yes, okay,

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Speaker 2: they go nine of twenty seven thirty three percent. That's

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Speaker 2: eighteen more points boom, totally reasonable amount. I've had some

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Speaker 2: people come at me on Twitter, Kai and say, it's

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Speaker 2: because of how physical STSU plays. Guys are beat up

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Speaker 2: and they're worried about getting shoved and stuff. Is that

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Speaker 2: why no one can make threes? My dad even offered

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Speaker 2: that as a potential explanation on the phone. What do

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Speaker 2: you think of that hypothesis.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a a reason and there's a track

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Speaker 1: record at least for San Diego State being good at

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Speaker 1: three point percentage defense, something that has a lot of

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Speaker 1: luck baked in. But there are certain teams in the

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Speaker 1: country that do well on that stat because yes they're physical,

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Speaker 1: yes they're athletic, and yes they're long. I think San

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Speaker 1: Diego State checks those boxes. But man, even though they're

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Speaker 1: the second best defensive team in the country in terms

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Speaker 1: of a three point percentage allowed standpoint, they're still allowing

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Speaker 1: twenty seven point eight percent for the year. That's a

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Speaker 1: crazy low number, but they are four opponents have shot

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Speaker 1: seventeen percent, ten percentage points lower than their season average.

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Speaker 1: It's still lucky anyway, slice it. I think this thus

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Speaker 1: far in the tournament. Yeah, but hard agree there, Matt.

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Speaker 2: Let's say you there is that something that you're looking

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Speaker 2: at as an edge for FAU considering you're already looking

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Speaker 2: to bet that side.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 3: Yes, However, I do give credit some credit. How much

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Speaker 3: is the question to the as effects in their defense

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Speaker 3: and being able to control some of that opposing three

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Speaker 3: point percentage? Just look at their average possession length on

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Speaker 3: defense three hundred and forty fifth in the country all season.

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Speaker 3: A lot of these great defenses. I'm not going to

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Speaker 3: du San A State like a historically great defense, but

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Speaker 3: by the metrics they're they're not so far away. Low

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Speaker 3: or high possession lengths, which leads to low three point

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Speaker 3: percentage defense. Basically, you're waiting, you can't get a good shot,

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Speaker 3: you for something late. And I think the numbers if

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Speaker 3: you adjusted for true shot quality, I think you'd find

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Speaker 3: that a lot of that was true just awesome defense. However,

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Speaker 3: seventeen percent is just an insanely low number. And when

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Speaker 3: you combine the fact that FAU seems to overdue for

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Speaker 3: like a fourteen for thirty three point shooting barrage, which

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Speaker 3: they have not seen in the last few weeks, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: you could see maybe a regression force mashup that that

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Speaker 3: could go fa u's favor.

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Speaker 2: YEP, coming from both directions, I think you could say

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Speaker 2: as good as San Diego State is defensively, they were

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Speaker 2: second in the country this year in three point percentage

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Speaker 2: of defense, and that was twenty eight. Like Kaisa, it's

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Speaker 2: absolutely ludicrous for it to be at seventeen, even in

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Speaker 2: a relatively small sample. Last question, on this also related

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Speaker 2: to the total What do we think of this being

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Speaker 2: in a football stadium. I know that that is an

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Speaker 2: oft repeated narrative for shooting and potentially going to help

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Speaker 2: the under Matt, you feel like that's kind of debunked.

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Speaker 2: I can't remember if you have the data explicitly on that.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying and pull it all right, it's pretty start

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Speaker 3: toward the over. Yeah, but please fill time while I

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Speaker 3: look forward. Believe it's pretty structwarth the over the last

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Speaker 3: five years. Actually, so do not been unders on title

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Speaker 3: Ford Blanley, do not.

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Speaker 2: I don't think doing that just because of the shooting

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Speaker 2: venue is really proper At this stage. The guys have

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Speaker 2: played in big basketball arenas. I know it's different, but

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Speaker 2: especially from like the corners, it's fairly similar. Kay, I

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Speaker 2: don't totally buy that as a major difference, especially after

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Speaker 2: the first couple of shots you get used to it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean, just using last year's example, k

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Speaker 1: Unova was wildly efficient, Kay, you had like one point

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Speaker 1: four points for possession. Unc Duke was wildly efficient, and

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Speaker 1: even the championship game, I think that went under, but

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Speaker 1: it was still pretty efficient. I don't think it's as

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Speaker 1: big of a deal as people make it out to be,

286
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Speaker 1: and it's certainly in the line opinion baked in just

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Speaker 1: a bit. I do think it probably gets inherently deflated

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Speaker 1: in the market with going to the big stadium. The

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Speaker 1: books aren't idiots. They know this is a trend that

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Speaker 1: people like to cite. They probably shade it a little

291
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Speaker 1: bit low. I have not really dug into the total

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Speaker 1: of this game, but yeah, in theory, if that is true,

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Speaker 1: that does stay for San Diego State, just based on

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Speaker 1: how they can pack it in and how they can affect.

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Speaker 2: You from deep yep. I would also mention these teams

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Speaker 2: get to Houston fairly early. They've got to I believe

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Speaker 2: they play there in the gym on Thursday, they have

298
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Speaker 2: an open practice on Friday, that's pretty much all shoot around, right,

299
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Speaker 2: and then they'll play there on Saturday, and of course

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Speaker 2: championship game they'll have already played in the arena. So

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Speaker 2: I'm less worried about it. Matt, did you find the data?

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Speaker 1: No, I don't.

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Speaker 3: I was just what I do have though, is the

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Speaker 3: roller coaster of over Zonders. This tournament twenty seven and

305
00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:52,360
Speaker 3: nine to the under six round to sixty four in

306
00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,760
Speaker 3: the first four, eight and four to the over since

307
00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:59,080
Speaker 3: the Sweet sixteen. So don't try and catch the You know,

308
00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:01,000
Speaker 3: it's a game of amel when you're trying to play

309
00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:03,000
Speaker 3: the macro stuffn totals. Trust me, I've been burned by

310
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,079
Speaker 3: it badly this season. Jim one last inclusion for a

311
00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:10,800
Speaker 3: player prop at the Buzzer Vlad Golden under Fau kind

312
00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:12,240
Speaker 3: of just hit me as we were talking through the matches.

313
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Speaker 3: I think he's had some big games coming off that

314
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,480
Speaker 3: big game into k States. He's got a brutal matchup

315
00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,920
Speaker 3: against Mensa. I can see made going away from him,

316
00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:22,360
Speaker 3: trying to find other options as he does so well,

317
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:23,880
Speaker 3: he's not going to foresty gold at all. I could

318
00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,120
Speaker 3: see gold haveing really low usage, so Golden under point

319
00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,640
Speaker 3: total will be where I'm looking for an under.

320
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Speaker 2: But did you swipe that out of the outline from me?

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Speaker 2: You wrap scallion on Jim, Yeah, I wrote that in there,

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Speaker 2: so I think it's a good look too. Just watching

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Speaker 2: what Kalkbrender did against Mensa in the second half, struggled

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Speaker 2: like crazy to finish, and they play through him way

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Speaker 2: more than Fau plays through Golden. I do think that

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00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,680
Speaker 2: under is a pretty decent look as well. College hoops

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00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:50,800
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Speaker 1: York, Let's go to the Nightcap.

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Speaker 2: Miami and Yukon definitely the more featured matchup. There are

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00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 2: a lot of jokes about FAU San Diego State being

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00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:27,960
Speaker 2: moved to True TV in the media room as a joke.

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00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:28,440
Speaker 4: Ha ha ha.

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00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,320
Speaker 2: Nope, they won't do that, but ratings probably won't be

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00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,960
Speaker 2: explosive Miami Yukon though they might. Yukon definitely has a

364
00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:38,360
Speaker 2: name brand there. Miami is a bigger name brand as well.

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00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 2: Should be more points. The total is significantly higher in

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Speaker 2: this game. Just looking at bet MGM right now, it's

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00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,480
Speaker 2: at one forty nine and a half. Yukon is minus

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Speaker 2: five and a half. Kai going to you first on

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00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:53,640
Speaker 2: this one. You and I have both now seen these

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00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:57,760
Speaker 2: Huskies in person at their absolute peaks scary. Why should

371
00:16:57,800 --> 00:16:59,200
Speaker 2: we bet against them?

372
00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:02,960
Speaker 1: Because Jim Laerne is a way better coach than Dan Hurley,

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Speaker 1: and I think he's proven that through these four games

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Speaker 1: when he's made adjustments in game, He's got fantastic guards

375
00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,760
Speaker 1: at his disposal. You could say Miami's backboard is the

376
00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 1: best of the remaining four teams. You could say it's

377
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Speaker 1: among the best in the country, at least offensively, and

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00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:22,000
Speaker 1: I'd probably believe you. But if Yukon plays their game,

379
00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,600
Speaker 1: if they hit outside shots to a reasonable degree, they

380
00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,680
Speaker 1: should smash Miami. They should beat them by double digits.

381
00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:32,720
Speaker 1: Their offense is excellent Miami's d might be the worst

382
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:34,639
Speaker 1: we've seen for a Final Four team, at least from

383
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,040
Speaker 1: a metric standpoint one hundred and fourth and Kim pom

384
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:39,919
Speaker 1: and at Bart Torviick, I think it's even worse from

385
00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 1: a justice defensive efficiency standpoint. Texas scored Miami just out

386
00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:47,560
Speaker 1: scored him. Houston scored pretty well as well. If Miami

387
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:49,480
Speaker 1: has even an inkling of a cold day or a

388
00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:51,640
Speaker 1: little bit of an off night, or if Yukon's hitting shots,

389
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Speaker 1: I think it kind of spells doom for the Canes.

390
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,560
Speaker 1: Matthew and gosh man, it's hard to score inside on

391
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,680
Speaker 1: Yukon if Miami is missing, which, by the way, Yukon

392
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:01,720
Speaker 1: runs guys off the line pretty well and defends on

393
00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:03,840
Speaker 1: the perimeter as well. I just think it's hard for

394
00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,640
Speaker 1: them to get over that in combo with their defense

395
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:08,320
Speaker 1: being suspect. Yeah.

396
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:12,399
Speaker 3: My concern for Miami though, is, I'm sorry for Yukon,

397
00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:16,320
Speaker 3: is there can they handle the ball against Miami's pressure?

398
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:19,359
Speaker 3: But more importantly is does Miami deploy a lot of

399
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:20,800
Speaker 3: pressure for the entirety of this game?

400
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 1: Right?

401
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:24,480
Speaker 3: I think Miami's defense has been good when it needed

402
00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 3: to be, right, it's been opportunistic. I think alternatate really

403
00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 3: all season, it's kind of been the mo of this

404
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,520
Speaker 3: this knees team, and even dating back to last year,

405
00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 3: the metrics hate this defense. But we saw the pressure

406
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 3: the applied against right, we saw the pressure they applied

407
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 3: against Texas, like I think when they want to dial

408
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:42,160
Speaker 3: it up and get stops. You know, Larynak is awesome

409
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 3: at turning that on switch on when.

410
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:44,719
Speaker 1: He needs to.

411
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 3: Wonder if he pulls that dips into his bag of

412
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 3: tricks and does the same here against Yukon. Unfortunately, I

413
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,320
Speaker 3: think I talked to this last night. The depth favors

414
00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:56,680
Speaker 3: Yukon so heavily. I just don't know if Miami can

415
00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 3: deploy that for forty minutes. And it's just not really

416
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 3: a you know, a press over a forty minute game

417
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 3: is usually not successful, right, It's got to be you know,

418
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:06,800
Speaker 3: do off your spots at all times. Yeah, it can't

419
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:08,640
Speaker 3: all forty right, It's just you know, players figured out

420
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:10,639
Speaker 3: and Yukon's guards are big, right, they can throw over

421
00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:12,880
Speaker 3: the top. Now, we've seen them struggle with pressure before

422
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,640
Speaker 3: the season. Jim I brought to Saint John's comparison last night.

423
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,359
Speaker 3: But this Yukon team. The way they're playing right now,

424
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,240
Speaker 3: with the development and growth we've seen from Hawkins and

425
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 3: Jackson's notably new and even as well. I tend to

426
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:26,639
Speaker 3: trust this Yukon back court a lot more than I

427
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:27,400
Speaker 3: did two months ago.

428
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, And you're talking about pressing for forty minutes.

429
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 2: This team basically goes sixty like they're Bensley Joseph is

430
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 2: this one guy they want to use off the bench.

431
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,760
Speaker 2: They'll use Anthony Walker if they have to because it

432
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,159
Speaker 2: fouls for Omir, but otherwise they want to play with

433
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 2: They're starting five as much as possible. Defense last three

434
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:49,720
Speaker 2: games has given up one point oh one point oh

435
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,120
Speaker 2: seven and one point one to two points per possession

436
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 2: for Miami. They are not winning with defense. I know

437
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,119
Speaker 2: they've gotten some key stops when they needed to, but

438
00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 2: it's just been this nuclear offense. It's gotten them here

439
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 2: and Kai. We just saw the best offense in the country, Gonzaga,

440
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 2: no question about it, the best offense get completely shut

441
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:10,080
Speaker 2: down by this Yukon defense. They could not score. Granted

442
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,879
Speaker 2: there were some misshots in there, but I mean they

443
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 2: put up fifty four points against Yukon in a fairly

444
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 2: high possession game. That was impressive. Let me throw one

445
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 2: thing at you, Kai two. I've cited shot quality a

446
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 2: couple of times. It has all four Miami games of

447
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:30,879
Speaker 2: the tournament scored as wins for the Hurricanes. Somehow for Yukon.

448
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,160
Speaker 2: It scores the Saint Mary's and Arkansas games as losses.

449
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, bullshit. Yeah.

450
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 2: I watched Arkansas in person, and there's just no way

451
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 2: you can tell me that, Oh, Arkansas got better shots

452
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:45,119
Speaker 2: all game than Yukon. That's insane to me.

453
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:47,919
Speaker 1: Yes, and this is why shot quality is not the

454
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 1: NLB all. There are flaws in shot quality. Yukon won

455
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 1: by an average twenty points per game. I guess their

456
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 1: first four opponents, and I'm telling you it was not

457
00:20:56,600 --> 00:21:02,919
Speaker 1: all luck. They just rolled them. Frankly that I had

458
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:04,479
Speaker 1: a point here, Jim, I forgot what it was going

459
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 1: to go towards.

460
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 2: I'll take the ball back while you think of it.

461
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 1: I guess, thank you. Now Here's I.

462
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,239
Speaker 2: Hope this isn't swiping what kay was going for. But

463
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,119
Speaker 2: Matt Yukon this year has played fifteen games against teams

464
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 2: not in the Big East. They are fifteen to zero,

465
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 2: winning by an average of twenty five A game. They're

466
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 2: fourteen to zho to one against the spread on closing

467
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,160
Speaker 2: lines against non conference opponents. They haven't lost the game

468
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 2: against the spread to a team outside the Big East.

469
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 2: Dan Hurley basically laughed in the press conference when asked

470
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:34,359
Speaker 2: about this. He's like, look, the Big East is really tough.

471
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 2: They tried some tricky things against us. The sagging off

472
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 2: Andre Jackson was a big thing that kind of hacked

473
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:46,120
Speaker 2: Yukon system in January. They've completely solved it now. They

474
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 2: put the ball in his hands more. They put him

475
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 2: in that dunker spot so where instead of sitting on

476
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 2: the perimeter being useless, he's a scoring threat in the

477
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 2: dunker spot. So Nogo had a couple drop offs to

478
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 2: him against Gonzaga. They have fully figured that out. I

479
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 2: think the quote was that doesn't work anymore was what

480
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 2: Hurley said in the press conference. They're very confident with

481
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 2: how they are playing right now. They just don't think

482
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 2: anybody's got an answer for them, and quite honestly, I'm

483
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,680
Speaker 2: not sure anyone does either. So what say you two

484
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,880
Speaker 2: that fourteen oh one against the spread against non conference opponents.

485
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: Does we just keep riding it fifteen oh one?

486
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,919
Speaker 3: I think that's my lean. I said this earlier today.

487
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 3: If you're going to bet this game, if you like Yukon,

488
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 3: you're laying the points. If you like Miami, I think

489
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 3: you can take Miami money line. Now, I know records,

490
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 3: and you know, looking at records by game margins a

491
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 3: little bit dicey. You can sort of move that goalpost

492
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 3: and there's some.

493
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 1: Just the way that data shakes out.

494
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 3: It's not exactly neat, but notable that Yukon is zero

495
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 3: and to four this year in one point games, Miami

496
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 3: six five five points or less five points are.

497
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 1: Less, thank you. It is the official cutoff there.

498
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 3: I do believe that if this game is really close late,

499
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 3: my personal cut thinks you kind of wins comfortably. But

500
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 3: if this game is very competitive, want two possessions. I

501
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 3: will give the edge to Miami and of their ability

502
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 3: to make shots and that pressure probably being deployed at

503
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,199
Speaker 3: that point, and then a risk maybe if yu Kan,

504
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 3: you know, maybe Carrol's turnover too, you know, not making

505
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,439
Speaker 3: free throws and they need to. So that's sort of

506
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 3: a handicapped this game, right. Not super confident either way.

507
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 3: My gut leans hard toward Yukon. I think with that

508
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 3: I'm laying the points. I think if they went it's comfortably,

509
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 3: I wouldn't take Miami with the spread.

510
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: I guess what I'm trying to say, so Kai take

511
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 1: a Yeah. I guess my point I was gonna make

512
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 1: earlier is Omir. I'm not gonna doubt this guy again

513
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 1: because I've done it for several games in a row

514
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 1: and he's just shoved it up my my rear end.

515
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,919
Speaker 1: If he gets in foul trouble, I e like Timmy

516
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 1: did against Yukon last round, Miami is screwed. Snowga and

517
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 1: Klingon will absolutely destroy them inside. They might anyways, but

518
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:51,919
Speaker 1: if Omir has even an inkling of foul trouble, this's

519
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,679
Speaker 1: again I could just it's another factor of man. If

520
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,640
Speaker 1: Miami doesn't hit shots, man, if Miami's guy, Key Guy,

521
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 1: Key big Guy gets in foul trouble, well, man, if

522
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: Yukon even has a normal shooting day, they're done. There's

523
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 1: just so many places Miami could slip up, which is

524
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 1: where why I think I leaned towards the Yukon here

525
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 1: at five and a half even.

526
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just looking at Miami's last game. They shot

527
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 2: sixty six percent inside the arc against Texas. Let's remember

528
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 2: there was no dc D. That's really important, and Yukon

529
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 2: can throw out Snogo and clinging. Early in that Kenzaga game,

530
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 2: it came pretty clear it wasn't a clinging game. I

531
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 2: know he ended up playing twelve minutes, but a lot

532
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 2: of that was garbage. I think he played three minutes

533
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 2: in the first half. It was very much a Sonogo game,

534
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 2: so I think that's worth noting. It's still not going

535
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 2: to be the same Klingons the better rim protector, of course,

536
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 2: but Snogo does deter you there, and this team just

537
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 2: has length athleticism all over the floor and Matt One

538
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 2: last note here, perhaps for player props, this game will

539
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 2: tip after sundown, So mister Snogo can eat, can drink.

540
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 2: He is going to be just fine not fasting for Raman,

541
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 2: and I know that didn't affect him in the Sweet

542
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 2: sixteen Elite eight, but let's throw out that narrative completely.

543
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 2: It is tipping after sundown. He's totally fine.

544
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, he might just be a cyborg after all.

545
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 3: Jim I was actually looking at Jordan Miller on a

546
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 3: player prop angle here, obviously the perfect man with the

547
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 3: Christian Latner knockoff and performance last time.

548
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 2: At seven from the field, thirteen for thirteen for.

549
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 3: The line had one turnover, though so not quite perfect.

550
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 3: KI called it a no hitter, not a perfect gameless.

551
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 1: I thought that was very apt. I do like his

552
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 1: matchup though, if he gets Caravan.

553
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 3: If I'm Hurley, I think Caravan is a guy you

554
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 3: play less than this game, and you play Jackson Moore

555
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 3: to four. I just don't want to have any sort

556
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 3: of foot speed advantage for Miller, right, I think that's

557
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 3: where he can get you, sort of that interior mid

558
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 3: range kind of knips through. Seems he scores on post

559
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 3: guys more with speed, not with length and size. So

560
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 3: I guess by association where I was going with this

561
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 3: is a Caravan under potentially for economy. I don't's fine,

562
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 3: Where's what is his up to date point total. I

563
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 3: know he's had some big games, so I think it's

564
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 3: inflated a little bit. But just how the matchup shakeout,

565
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 3: I think it early plays Caravan less to really make

566
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 3: sure Miller doesn't go off, because I think he's kind

567
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:07,719
Speaker 3: of the X factor of that. If they can keep

568
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,199
Speaker 3: him in check, it puts just the absolute biggest burden

569
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 3: unpack along to make thirty footers contested, and hey, they

570
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 3: can do it, but can they do it for forty

571
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 3: minutes and stop you on the other end?

572
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: Unlikely.

573
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, U CON's just so long everywhere. I mean, unless

574
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 2: they're really rolling out Diarra, which I really don't expect

575
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 2: to see, like almost any of him and a little

576
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: bit of Calcatara. They're just long. They're six five and

577
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 2: up pretty much everywhere, and that's given a lot of

578
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 2: teams problems. It's tough to prepare for, Like you just

579
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 2: can't simulate that sometimes the sheer size and athleticism at

580
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 2: every position. We're not talking championship game yet, but I

581
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 2: will say Mark Feugh, a terrific game planner, smart coach

582
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 2: had a really good team, said if you have forty

583
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 2: eight hours to prepare for this team, you're screwed. You

584
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 2: have no chance. Like, they just do so many different things.

585
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 2: They can play through the post, they can run guys

586
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 2: off screens. Hawkins is elite, speaking of a guy that

587
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:02,479
Speaker 2: I might kind of like his player prop over and

588
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 2: they just there's so many different ways they can attack

589
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,120
Speaker 2: you that you have to plan for and make sure

590
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 2: you have a coverage for you just can't do it

591
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 2: in short prep. So that that's my big worry for

592
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 2: the championship game. Obviously, Miami has a lot of time

593
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 2: here and Larrnega is brilliant, but I still lean Yukon

594
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 2: here minus five and a half. I like the over.

595
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:23,679
Speaker 2: I don't think you kN or I don't think you

596
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 2: kind holds Miami to sub sixty points like they did

597
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 2: the Gonzaga. I can see a lot of points. A

598
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: lot of Miami games have been that way, but I

599
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 2: do lean Yukon. So final takes on that Kai, I'll

600
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 2: start with you, and then matt.

601
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 1: I'm taking Yukon minus five and a half. Jim is

602
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 1: my final takes in this game, beautiful, Matthew, what do

603
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 1: you think?

604
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I will take Yukon minus five and probably buy

605
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 3: the half point because I'm a I'm a half point sucker.

606
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 1: Don't and do you think you kint? I know, I'm sorry.

607
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 1: I gotta do it though, Well the folks at home.

608
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: There is a two to three not endorsement for buying

609
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 1: a hook, and Matthew likes buying the hook.

610
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 3: Only buying the hook the keen numbers Kai just three numbers.

611
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,479
Speaker 3: I buy it two five is one of those. I

612
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 3: like the over angle gym. I think this game, especially

613
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 3: if he gets out of hand, Miami just says, all right,

614
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,679
Speaker 3: we'll wrong with you. Right they try and kind of

615
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 3: just dip into the you know they're gonna pick cup

616
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 3: full core if they're gonna shoot with five ten seconds,

617
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 3: looking for transition threes, long rebounds, fuels, fast breaks the

618
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 3: other way, and just sort of this perfect storm of

619
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 3: pace infusion into a game that was probably going to

620
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 3: be you know, faster or to medium, you know pace game.

621
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 3: But if it gets to ten, twelve, fourteen points, I

622
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 3: think it starts getting up and down.

623
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 1: So I like the over there as well.

624
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,439
Speaker 2: I'm with you there, I'm not seeing clinging props for

625
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 2: this yet, especially points. I think I like unders on

626
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: him because I just don't think it's going to be

627
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 2: his game, very much similar to the Gonzaga, where I

628
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 2: think if it stays anywhere near close, I don't think

629
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 2: he's going to have a ton of playing time. So

630
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 2: I like unders if you can find them maybe closer

631
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 2: to tip time, we'll get extended menus on that. All right, guys,

632
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 2: let's move to the futures market. The overall look at

633
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 2: this final four potential title winners very clearly leaning towards Yukon. Here.

634
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 2: These are from bet MGM Yukon minus one twenty five,

635
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 2: San Diego State plus three seventy five, Miami plus four

636
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 2: seventy five, and FAU plus six twenty five. We'll start

637
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 2: with this, Matt my Yukon odds on favorite more than

638
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 2: fifty percent chance to win. Do you agree, just on

639
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 2: a gut sense, with that kind of a ligne? Yeah?

640
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: Right?

641
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 3: Do you think it should be e commerce the field

642
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 3: as a coin flip just to contextualize it a little

643
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 3: more straightforward mannery? Yeah, And I think Ukon should be

644
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 3: a slight favorite, so you know, tilted toward the favorite

645
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 3: side as they are. So yeah, I think just that

646
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 3: in a nutshell, I agree with that if you do

647
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 3: the mechanical money liligne conversion stuff the best pure value,

648
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 3: removing all of your you know, qualitative subjectivity from the equation.

649
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 3: I think FAU actually has the best value of the

650
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 3: four just given the you know, projected spread of what

651
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 3: the title game could be. I think six to one

652
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 3: you're getting a pretty fair price. Usually with the whole

653
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 3: percent just being highed. It's tough to find a good

654
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 3: fair price, almost possible to find true value, but on

655
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 3: a relative basis, FAU six to one, and if you

656
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 3: think Miami has a real chance to beat Yukon, which

657
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 3: sounds like none of us really do. But if you're

658
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 3: in that camp and you're not really buying on the

659
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 3: Yukon thing, you think Miami's just this blazing inferno that

660
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 3: can't be stopped, it's definitely good value because then you're

661
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 3: getting a real discounted price there with FAU against Miami

662
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 3: the final game, as opposed to FAU against Connecticut, which

663
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 3: is the presumed outcome. If you are taking a six

664
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 3: to one. So I like FAU, I would say, definitely

665
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 3: hinted if you think Miam's got.

666
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:39,239
Speaker 1: A chance to win that game. Yeah, these markets are

667
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 1: tough because there's only two games left, so they're pretty

668
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: much priced exactly correctly. Not kind of fun because the

669
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: oddsmakers know the money line for the championship game, you know,

670
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 1: in the different scenarios, they know the money line. Right now,

671
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 1: there's not a whole lot of value in my opinion,

672
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 1: I guess I think in every single case here, you

673
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: would get slightly better value by just money rollover money

674
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 1: line rollover these two games. If you really want to

675
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 1: do that, goul's just bet the game's money line. I mean,

676
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: if you have a future on say a Yukon like

677
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 1: I do, maybe maybe you consider grabbing I fa use

678
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 1: six to one or again just money line rollover. I

679
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 1: don't know if you're into that hedging sort of thing ultimately, though,

680
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 1: I think these are priced fairly.

681
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to touch on hedging real quick, KI,

682
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 2: because I've had I've had several people reach out to

683
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 2: me on this and I'm happy to try to talk

684
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: through it with you, and I'm I have you know,

685
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 2: everybody's very nice about it. But it's such a singular,

686
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 2: your own situation type of thing, like your risk tolerance,

687
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 2: how much you have out there, how much the money

688
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 2: like winning means to you, Like is it life changing?

689
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 2: Is it pocket change? Which which two teams do you have?

690
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 2: Do you have more than one? Like, there's just so

691
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 2: many different factors that go into that that's hard for

692
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 2: like an outsider to jump in and say, here's what

693
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 2: you should do, here's the even sometimes like the mathematically

694
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 2: correct one isn't the correct move for you? Like Kay,

695
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 2: you have Yukon, Ye, I'm an, I only took you

696
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 2: kind of the final four for not enough, so yay winner.

697
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 2: But I still have a lot of dead money in

698
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 2: futures that I'm trying to figure out what to do with.

699
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 2: I have a big San Diego State ticket, a smaller

700
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 2: Miami ticket, and I'm I've been playing with a little

701
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 2: Excel simulator to try to figure out exactly how I'm

702
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 2: going to balance out everything else there. Yeah, it's a

703
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 2: real trick.

704
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 1: My other question be to those that people always ask,

705
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: how'shy hedge hashy hedge? Well, why do you necessarily want

706
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: to hedge? Did you make the bet to win at

707
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 1: this price because you thought it was a good bet,

708
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 1: then keep it, you know, if why would you give

709
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 1: up your your equity? I suppose if you think it's

710
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 1: still a good bet. Like, the correct thing for me

711
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 1: to do with my twenty six to one Yukon ticket

712
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 1: is nothing. Because they are currently minus one twenty five

713
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 1: to win the title, I have a fantastic number. I

714
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 1: should probably just let it ride.

715
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 2: I take eight percent chance of per markets the fifty

716
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 2: percent chance of winning twenty six to one.

717
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and if I should, I am. I gonna take

718
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 1: Miami plus five and a half for a little bit. Yeah,

719
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: probably because I'm greeny and win both. Yeah, but if

720
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 1: the money, if you can handle the risk, I would

721
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 1: say probably let these ride. Now if you have like

722
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 1: a San Diego State Miami refau, then you can kind

723
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 1: of get cute, I guess. But again, it's hard to

724
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: hedge with two games left and Yukon being a minus

725
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: two hundred at least moneyline favorite against your team, So

726
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 1: you got to lay quite a bit in your hedge.

727
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 3: My favorite player props in this player in this matchup here,

728
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 3: no kind of asking you this is the one I

729
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 3: couldn't find. I think I have better takes, better matchup

730
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 3: one v one field in that first game, this one.

731
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 3: Just with the way Miami defense are kind of flying

732
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 3: all over the place, Like it's really tough to think

733
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 3: about the individual matchups and how these line up. I

734
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 3: kind of like, if you're going to go with an over,

735
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 3: if we like the over on the full game right,

736
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 3: kind of makes you want to tilt toward finding overs

737
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 3: on these. I think Jordan Miller and Nigel Pack are

738
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 3: my two favorite Canes. I think Wong's kind of been

739
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 3: the main the focal point of opposing team scouting reports.

740
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 3: I think Packed tends to have a little more wiggle room,

741
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 3: it seems, and he's then as let's see, his usage

742
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 3: is actually down a little bit from long so far

743
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 3: this tournament, I think it has been all a year two.

744
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,880
Speaker 3: The Pack, I think is the true insane, impossible shot maker,

745
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 3: and you'll need those shots against Yukon's defense. So Pack

746
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:16,240
Speaker 3: is actually my best overplay on the US him and Miller.

747
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 3: Maybe I might split those two as I think through it,

748
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 3: Jim thoughts there the.

749
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 2: One I'm the ones I'm looking at. I'm with you

750
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:26,479
Speaker 2: on that Miami side. On the Yukon side, I'm looking

751
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 2: at some of the over assists numbers. Miami's defense gives

752
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 2: up quite a bit of assists two hundred and sixty two,

753
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 2: two hundred and sixty second in defensive assists rate, and

754
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 2: we saw some really good ball movement from from Yukon

755
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:43,840
Speaker 2: in the regional round. Sonogo had six assists against Gonzaga

756
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 2: because they sent a bunch of doubles his way. I

757
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 2: think Miami is going to do that again because if

758
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:51,240
Speaker 2: Omir gets in foul trouble, this game's over. So doubles

759
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 2: his way. That sets up well for assists over one

760
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 2: and a half. What I'm looking at is plus one,

761
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 2: so two assists from snogo. He's had some games where

762
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 2: he's had zero, so like it could not work. I

763
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 2: just think the way Miami has to defend them means

764
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 2: you get passing opportunities for him, So I like that. Also,

765
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 2: potentially DeAndre Jackson over five and a half. It's boosted

766
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 2: up a little bit. But again, the way that they've

767
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 2: solved defenses helping so far off him is putting the

768
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 2: ball in his hands more and he's become just a

769
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 2: machine moving the ball. He leads their team in a sistraight.

770
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: He had ten seven seven seven in the four NCAA

771
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 2: tournament games, so he's been well over five and a

772
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 2: half in every game. They're playing a bad defense that

773
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 2: gives up assists. I'm gonna I'm gonna go with both

774
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 2: of those. I think those make a lot of sense.

775
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, the was gonna be I didn't make that.

776
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 3: You remind me to make about my pack future was

777
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,319
Speaker 3: that The way Yukon defends, it's very much. They're so

778
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 3: good individually and so they force you to make one

779
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 3: v one plays to why their defensivesistrate is so low

780
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 3: where Miami's kind of always in scramble mode. It's just

781
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 3: the way they're built, and they're gonna have to be

782
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 3: in this matchup. So yeah, looking at it, assist over

783
00:35:54,360 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 3: as a great general filter for a Yukon player props Yep, yep, agreed, All.

784
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 2: Right, let's do it. Most Outstanding Player market. These odds

785
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:08,280
Speaker 2: are from that mgm our loyal sponsor Adamisonogo Jordan Hawkins.

786
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 2: The two co favorites to be the most outstanding player

787
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 2: there are both plus two hundred. I think that makes

788
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 2: sense for what it's worth. Hawkins won the most Outstanding

789
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 2: Player of the West Region with his dead eye shooting

790
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 2: from deep. Of course, they're going to play through Snogo

791
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 2: in this game against a smaller front line. Take that

792
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,760
Speaker 2: as you will. Jordan Miller next at plus eight hundred

793
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:31,280
Speaker 2: from Miami. Rather surprising to see him distanced from Isaiah

794
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 2: Wong and Nigel Pack in that regard. Matt Bradley of

795
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,839
Speaker 2: San Diego State ten to one, Darien Tremmeel also ten

796
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 2: to one, Nellie Davis of FAU twelve to one. Then

797
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 2: you've got long Pack, Lamont Butler, Andre Jackson all in

798
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 2: the twelve to sixteen range long shots Vlad Golden's forty

799
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 2: to one for Fau, he was on the All Tournament

800
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:56,240
Speaker 2: or the All Region team in their region. Nathan bensa

801
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 2: fifty to one will get Poplar fifty to one. I'm

802
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 2: not super intrigued by any of those, Ky, What are

803
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 2: you looking at in this market, anything that you think

804
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 2: is actually worth betting?

805
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: Oh, I would first say shop around. There might be

806
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:08,320
Speaker 1: better prices than some of these guys out there in

807
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 1: the market. So obviously good advice for any bet you make.

808
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 1: I am kind of intrigued here. So this obviously ties

809
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 1: a lot into who you think is going to win

810
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 1: the title, because whoever wins the title, they're going to

811
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 1: have the most dead standing player. Ninety nine times out

812
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 1: of one hundred, it's probably Yukon, Okay, Snogo and Hawkins.

813
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,800
Speaker 1: Great options. I kind of like Andre Jackson around sixteen

814
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 1: to one because Jim mentioned already his assists seven to

815
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 1: seven ten. This guy is a triple double threat on

816
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 1: a nightly basis. What if he has a triple double

817
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:40,479
Speaker 1: in against Miami? What if he has a triple double

818
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 1: in the championship game. Media members, the guys that vote

819
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 1: for this, they love triple doubles. He's gonna have the

820
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 1: ball in his hands a lot if that happens, that's

821
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 1: eye popping. That's probably good enough to win this bet

822
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 1: sixteen to one. I think it's kind of worth it.

823
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 2: I like that, Matthew. If there's a triple double, he's

824
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:59,799
Speaker 2: probably getting it, so's that's worth a look.

825
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, the same angle Kui is what initially gravitated me

826
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:04,760
Speaker 3: toward Nellie Davis.

827
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 1: But the odds are just bad for Davis.

828
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 3: Like, you can't take Davis at worse odds than Jackson

829
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 3: when I think Davis has a more balanced supporting cast, right, Like,

830
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 3: I think Davis could put up those triple double type stats.

831
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 1: We've seen him. Well, he's already.

832
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:21,280
Speaker 3: He's grabbed ten boards in this tournament twice at six assists.

833
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 3: Last game, had five assists the game against FDU, been

834
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 3: double figures basically every game since mid February.

835
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: And he's just a machine.

836
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 3: I kind of like taking a flyer on an FAU

837
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 3: guard not name Elijah Martin or Nelly Davis, like a

838
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 3: Nick BOYD, who I would think right now is maybe

839
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:41,399
Speaker 3: their third best guard. You know, Greenley is right there,

840
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:43,320
Speaker 3: and Forrest has kind of had a little bit resurgence,

841
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,839
Speaker 3: But I just think Nick Boyd has that big game

842
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 3: rise to the occasion type.

843
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:49,320
Speaker 1: Of brain wires.

844
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 3: You know, he's the guy who went to Dusty Maathan

845
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:52,839
Speaker 3: at Memphis game is like, hey, I want the ball here.

846
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 3: He got the ball in the baseline, trop got that

847
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,399
Speaker 3: big bucket at one hundred to one, one hundred to one.

848
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: I think it's worth a little flyer, especially like Fau,

849
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 3: as much as iety to win this thing. If you're

850
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 3: gonna like Fau, just yeah, why not right, and you're

851
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 3: gonna take we talked about we don't love the golden matchup.

852
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 3: Martin and Davis are probably overpriced in my opinion. Greenley,

853
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 3: I think s there a one hundred and one too.

854
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 3: Maybe you do a little Greenley Boyd double dose of

855
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 3: one hundred to one sprinkle, you know, hope that those

856
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 3: guys are the forgotten loss shooters on the perimeter. They

857
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 3: get hot, maybe knocked down on five six threes in

858
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 3: the semi, they get past STSU and then you're in

859
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:26,799
Speaker 3: business of the title game.

860
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 2: I like that one one more angle. We haven't really

861
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 2: talked about it because we're all leaning FAU. But if

862
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 2: San Diego State somehow finds a way to win.

863
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 1: Well.

864
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,879
Speaker 2: D at eighty to one intrigues me because I think

865
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 2: he's going to dominate FAU that matchup. I think he

866
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 2: can have some real success there. He is a high

867
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 2: usage guy. When he's on the floor, he shoots and

868
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 2: he's been pretty efficient with it as well. He's going

869
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 2: to get rebound numbers. We mentioned the rebound prop in

870
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 2: that first round game or the semi final game. I

871
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 2: think that's interesting if you like San Diego State, that's

872
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 2: something you could pair that with. Where D I like

873
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 2: that value way more than scuffling Bradley at ten to one.

874
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 2: That's just that doesn't really jump out to me.

875
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, can Argula is the most talented player on the

876
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 3: floor in that FAU game, So that's kind of like

877
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 3: that there, just from that angle.

878
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, give them the pedigree and whatnot, and hey, you

879
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 2: get Miami. Suddenly it suddenly it looks great too. You

880
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 2: get Yeah, you get Miami in the next round. He's

881
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,839
Speaker 2: got a major physicality advantage against if he gets some

882
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 2: minutes at the four against Jordan Miller. So we will see.

883
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 2: We'll see, Fellows. Anything else to add before we wrap

884
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 2: it up here on Big Bets on Campus, Go fau go.

885
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 1: You kun go out.

886
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:35,399
Speaker 4: Kay.

887
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 2: If that's that's the case, guy, then I've got some

888
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 2: real hedging work to do on my San Diego say

889
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 2: Miami Bets. All right, that's it. Thank you everybody for

890
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 2: tuning into this episode of Big Bets on Campus. Shout

891
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 2: out to our sponsor bet MGM. We'll be back with

892
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 2: Big Bets on Campus Live with Stuckey. We'll have some

893
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 2: more wagers there, so feel free to tune into that

894
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 2: as well. But until then, enjoy the games, enjoy the

895
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 2: final four. Maybe we'll see you in Houston.

896
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 4: Cheers.

897
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:20,520
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898
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,320
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899
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:26,440
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