1
00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:15,480
Speaker 1: All right, welcome in to lay Cake is Live.

2
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,000
Speaker 2: It is Tuesday night, September twenty second, the Year of

3
00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:21,440
Speaker 2: Our Lord, twenty twenty. There's nothing to joke about tonight.

4
00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:23,880
Speaker 2: It is Game week all over the country. The SEC

5
00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:25,360
Speaker 2: is about to crank up. We've got a lot of

6
00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:28,520
Speaker 2: SEC content tonight, as promised to you Sunday night. We've

7
00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:31,840
Speaker 2: got several predictions on the show tonight. I've got added

8
00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:35,040
Speaker 2: best bets in the Ram and Noodle Express, still working

9
00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,479
Speaker 2: on branding that game previews tonight. We've got an LSU

10
00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:40,600
Speaker 2: Grand season preview tonight. There are a lot of peas

11
00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,400
Speaker 2: on the show tonight and hopefully you enjoy them all.

12
00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:45,120
Speaker 1: So here's what I need you to do.

13
00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:46,760
Speaker 2: I need you to if you're already in and we've

14
00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:48,520
Speaker 2: got a lot of new viewers coming in every show.

15
00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:50,839
Speaker 2: I can see the unique viewer metrics. So a lot

16
00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,080
Speaker 2: of you are new and that's great. A lot of

17
00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:54,880
Speaker 2: you live your life in the summer and you just

18
00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:56,920
Speaker 2: come back to the troth in the fall, and that's

19
00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:58,800
Speaker 2: probably means you got a lot more balance in your

20
00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,480
Speaker 2: life than we Dobscribe to the channel on YouTube if

21
00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,119
Speaker 2: you haven't already, and find the late Kick Podcast wherever

22
00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:06,160
Speaker 2: you listen to podcasts and subscribe there.

23
00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:08,520
Speaker 1: As I said, our numbers are going up.

24
00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,080
Speaker 2: I wouldn't quite use the word exponentially, but they're going

25
00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:12,960
Speaker 2: up by a pretty steep degree every week.

26
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:14,039
Speaker 1: So thank you so much for that.

27
00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,039
Speaker 2: And I also wanted to say, as I did on

28
00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,360
Speaker 2: the Late Kick Extra podcast this morning, before we get

29
00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,360
Speaker 2: started on a jam packed show tonight, I wanted to

30
00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:23,679
Speaker 2: let you know I was scrolling through a lot of

31
00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,720
Speaker 2: your messages. You guys send by the hundreds, comments, not

32
00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,520
Speaker 2: even questions, just comments, and they all say a version

33
00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,360
Speaker 2: of the same thing, and it's just thank you, and

34
00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:35,960
Speaker 2: what has been the craziest off season in history, thank

35
00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:37,600
Speaker 2: you for just talking about what we want you to

36
00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:39,759
Speaker 2: talk about. And that's not even just late Caick. That's

37
00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:41,280
Speaker 2: what we've tried to do at twenty four to seven.

38
00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:43,480
Speaker 2: We've kind of stayed in the lane that you ask

39
00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:45,880
Speaker 2: us repeatedly to stay in. I've yet to get an

40
00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:47,920
Speaker 2: email that said, will you please get out of this

41
00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:51,040
Speaker 2: lane and talk about nonsports related stuff. Every one of you,

42
00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:52,880
Speaker 2: to a man and woman, say hey, could you stay

43
00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,080
Speaker 2: in that lane and talk about it? So I don't

44
00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,680
Speaker 2: care what anyone else does. That's what we're doing here,

45
00:01:57,880 --> 00:01:59,520
Speaker 2: and it kind of validates a lot of the work

46
00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:01,320
Speaker 2: that we do here. To read those comments, so I

47
00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:02,920
Speaker 2: may not respond to all of them. I don't have

48
00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,080
Speaker 2: time to you send them, like I said, by the hundreds,

49
00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,320
Speaker 2: but it lets me know you understand what we're doing

50
00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,400
Speaker 2: here and you're on board with it, and it's really appreciated.

51
00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:12,079
Speaker 2: So thank you when you reach out, and if you

52
00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,120
Speaker 2: want to reach out, you can see my contact information

53
00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,440
Speaker 2: there at the bottom of the screen at late Kick

54
00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:19,480
Speaker 2: Josh on Twitter and Joshpait seven zero six at gmail

55
00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:20,400
Speaker 2: dot com.

56
00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:22,200
Speaker 1: So we've got a lot to get to tonight. Let's

57
00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:23,400
Speaker 1: waste no time.

58
00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:25,520
Speaker 2: We could not get it all in tonight actually, so

59
00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:27,480
Speaker 2: don't miss a show.

60
00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:28,600
Speaker 1: I've got a lot coming.

61
00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:30,400
Speaker 2: Thursday night that's brand new that we haven't even had

62
00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:32,320
Speaker 2: time to talk about on the Sunday or at that

63
00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:36,520
Speaker 2: point the Tuesday show. So tune in every show. Let's

64
00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,680
Speaker 2: dive in here. We've been doing our grand season preview series.

65
00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:41,600
Speaker 2: We've been doing them for a lot of SEC teams.

66
00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:42,919
Speaker 2: We will do them for a lot of Big ten

67
00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:44,480
Speaker 2: teams a couple of weeks from now.

68
00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:46,920
Speaker 1: It is LSU Night tonight.

69
00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:48,720
Speaker 2: What we do with these is we give you areas

70
00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:50,960
Speaker 2: of focus, we give you biggest questions, we give you

71
00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:53,639
Speaker 2: record projections of all different varieties, and then at the

72
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,440
Speaker 2: very end, I'm going to give you my official record

73
00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,119
Speaker 2: projection for LSU. This was the period of time last

74
00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:02,400
Speaker 2: year where we hopped on board. We hurled ourselves, not

75
00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:04,399
Speaker 2: in front of like the rest of you did later

76
00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,440
Speaker 2: in the season, but onto the LSU train and we

77
00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:09,760
Speaker 2: rode that thing all the way to New Orleans. And

78
00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:11,600
Speaker 2: I was on the field as that purple and gold

79
00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,680
Speaker 2: confetti rained down all over that LSU team, And so

80
00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:18,120
Speaker 2: the mood tracker as we started tonight for LSU, this

81
00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,119
Speaker 2: is a team, this is a fan base that has

82
00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:21,679
Speaker 2: that kind of house money swagger.

83
00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:23,120
Speaker 1: It's the kind of swagger if you've.

84
00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:25,280
Speaker 2: Ever watched Wheel of Fortune, if you've had like a

85
00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,480
Speaker 2: historically good round and you've already locked up like seventy

86
00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,520
Speaker 2: five k and it's in the bank, and you go

87
00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,480
Speaker 2: do the final spin thing. If you win, that's great,

88
00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:35,720
Speaker 2: and Pat Sajak may hand you a new car or

89
00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,800
Speaker 2: something like that. But even if you lose, you're walking

90
00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,360
Speaker 2: away with seventy five grand. That is the kind of

91
00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:43,960
Speaker 2: swagger that only house money can allow you to have.

92
00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,560
Speaker 2: That's what LSU is walking into the season with. If

93
00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:48,200
Speaker 2: you're watching on YouTube, this is some of the cell

94
00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:49,960
Speaker 2: phone footage we shot of Edwards Rhine as he was

95
00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,080
Speaker 2: walking off the field in the National Title game last year.

96
00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:55,280
Speaker 2: You can't take that away from LSU. Nobody can take

97
00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:57,800
Speaker 2: it away from you. You'll have that forever, even on

98
00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,640
Speaker 2: the darkest days. If they come this season, just pop

99
00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,120
Speaker 2: in that comes and replay. Check out on the YouTube

100
00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:05,680
Speaker 2: link that Georgia replay. It's always going to be there.

101
00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,920
Speaker 2: So the house money swagger is something that LSU and

102
00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,760
Speaker 2: only LSU walks around with this year. The areas of

103
00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:15,880
Speaker 2: focus for this team the perception. This is evolving, to

104
00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,960
Speaker 2: be honest with you, the perception externally versus the internal perception,

105
00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,000
Speaker 2: because this hasn't always been the case with LSU. Over

106
00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:24,960
Speaker 2: the course of the summer, there's a lot of you

107
00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,279
Speaker 2: are familiar with, like the Dunning Kruger effect, which is

108
00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,039
Speaker 2: where you have that initial period we'd think you know everything,

109
00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:32,280
Speaker 2: and then you have a trough where you realize you

110
00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,160
Speaker 2: know nothing, and then there's sort of what they call

111
00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:36,720
Speaker 2: the slope of enlightenment. That's once you figure out you

112
00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:39,720
Speaker 2: know nothing, you start your slow journey towards wisdom. Well,

113
00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,040
Speaker 2: LSU has had this kind of internal version of their

114
00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,640
Speaker 2: own Dunning Kruger effect going on in the off season.

115
00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:47,320
Speaker 1: It's like you have last.

116
00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:50,000
Speaker 2: Year and then you lose everybody, but you're confident, You've

117
00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:51,760
Speaker 2: got a good recruiting class that comes in and so

118
00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,479
Speaker 2: you're all up here, and then you have opt out

119
00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:56,799
Speaker 2: after opt out after opt out, you have negative headlines

120
00:04:56,800 --> 00:05:00,320
Speaker 2: all over the place, and then you have the low point. Now,

121
00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,359
Speaker 2: whereas the public I think still perceives LSU in that

122
00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:06,200
Speaker 2: trough and the low point there, the internal perception at

123
00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,960
Speaker 2: LSU is now we're going to be okay. Like there

124
00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:11,800
Speaker 2: is a lot of I would say internal optimism down

125
00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:15,000
Speaker 2: there amongst not only the coaching staff, but people ultra

126
00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:16,080
Speaker 2: close to the program.

127
00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:18,400
Speaker 1: This is not going to be a national headline, you see.

128
00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,080
Speaker 2: I think nationally a lot of people think uh six

129
00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,640
Speaker 2: and four seven three. There's a lot of eight and

130
00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,200
Speaker 2: two nine to one predictions in LSU circles. And I'm

131
00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,719
Speaker 2: not talking about eternal optimists. I'm talking about people who

132
00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,080
Speaker 2: are realistic and follow the program. So needless to say,

133
00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,640
Speaker 2: there are reasons, and I would call them somewhat new

134
00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,000
Speaker 2: found reasons to be optimistic down there. A second thing

135
00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:39,960
Speaker 2: that I think we all need to focus on is

136
00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,400
Speaker 2: you don't need to overthink the room. This is Miles

137
00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:45,680
Speaker 2: Brennan's show. Now, Joe Burrow out the door, the Joe

138
00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:49,279
Speaker 2: Moore Award winning offensive line of last year. Some of

139
00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:50,760
Speaker 2: them out the door. Some of them are still there.

140
00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:54,599
Speaker 2: But this is Miles Brennan's show. And if they go

141
00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,280
Speaker 2: eight and two or better, that means in all. I

142
00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:59,120
Speaker 2: don't even think I need to say that, just that

143
00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,680
Speaker 2: flat out meme. LSU has gotten very good to elite

144
00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:06,120
Speaker 2: quarterback play and production from the quarterback position. And by

145
00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,080
Speaker 2: the way, you don't have to have what you had

146
00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:08,640
Speaker 2: last year.

147
00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:09,559
Speaker 1: No one will.

148
00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,320
Speaker 2: I'll make that bold prediction now, LSU or otherwise, no

149
00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,039
Speaker 2: one will have that kind of production this year.

150
00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:14,960
Speaker 1: And I don't.

151
00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,520
Speaker 2: Necessarily think you need it. The third thing is the

152
00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:21,200
Speaker 2: overall team DNA. This is the most intangible of intangibles,

153
00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,040
Speaker 2: but it is one of the very most important storylines

154
00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:26,640
Speaker 2: for any team, and I would double that for LSU.

155
00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,560
Speaker 2: They go from just on the surface ultra talented, and

156
00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,159
Speaker 2: they were ultra experienced, and they were hungry. They had

157
00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:35,760
Speaker 2: full program buy in a bunch of dudes who are

158
00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:37,240
Speaker 2: going to go on to play Sunday ball in the

159
00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:39,880
Speaker 2: first round. They were fully bought in. It was none

160
00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:41,560
Speaker 2: of what can LSU do for me? It was all

161
00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:43,839
Speaker 2: of what can I do for LSU. They go from

162
00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:48,840
Speaker 2: that to ultra green in many places, ultra unproven in

163
00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:53,360
Speaker 2: many places. So therefore question marks in many places, and

164
00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,320
Speaker 2: they got a target on their forehead. Because as much

165
00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:00,360
Speaker 2: as maybe a fan may say, oh, I don't expect

166
00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:03,600
Speaker 2: anything more than seven and three from LSU, therefore we

167
00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:07,360
Speaker 2: don't classify them being hunted like a Clemson or in

168
00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:11,520
Speaker 2: Ohio State. No one in this conference has lost their

169
00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:15,280
Speaker 2: receipt from last year. Alabama still very well remembers what

170
00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,000
Speaker 2: happened last year. Auburn remembers how close they came last year.

171
00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:22,320
Speaker 2: Everybody remembers. So doesn't matter what you think. I say

172
00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:24,960
Speaker 2: that kindly, everyone in this conference kept their receipt from

173
00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:25,400
Speaker 2: last year.

174
00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,000
Speaker 1: So you better believe LSU is the hunted.

175
00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,200
Speaker 2: I don't care what a preseason record prediction has on them.

176
00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,960
Speaker 2: Let's talk about biggest questions with LSU. Where's the pass

177
00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,240
Speaker 2: rush coming? From I think a lot of people are

178
00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:39,520
Speaker 2: blanketly saying, oh, their defensive line is going to struggle. Well,

179
00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:42,480
Speaker 2: they're two very different worlds here, especially going to the

180
00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,440
Speaker 2: even man front here with bo Polini defensive tackle, the

181
00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,240
Speaker 2: interior of their defensive line. I actually feel really good

182
00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:50,320
Speaker 2: about I think Edward's run, I think that coaching staff

183
00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,400
Speaker 2: feels really good about it. I think they have reason

184
00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:54,960
Speaker 2: to feel good about it. It's the edge where I

185
00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:57,280
Speaker 2: have the concern, and I think they may be playing

186
00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,840
Speaker 2: some guys out there that, in terms of body type,

187
00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,320
Speaker 2: they'd normally like to be able to kick inside, but

188
00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,000
Speaker 2: they just don't have the elite edge rusher options here.

189
00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,720
Speaker 2: And while I may not be worried about that interior

190
00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:10,240
Speaker 2: all that much, I don't think you know, people are

191
00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:11,920
Speaker 2: going to be racking up two hundred and fifty three

192
00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:13,679
Speaker 2: hundred yards rushing on LSU.

193
00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:16,600
Speaker 1: They are going to be in several one.

194
00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:18,800
Speaker 2: Possession type games in the fourth quarter this year, the

195
00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:21,080
Speaker 2: kind where you need to stop, the kind where you

196
00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:23,760
Speaker 2: need to pressure or hurry a quarterback, the kind where

197
00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,200
Speaker 2: you cannot allow a team to do what, for instance,

198
00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:29,680
Speaker 2: you were able to do against Georgia. And that's just

199
00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:31,720
Speaker 2: stand there and wait for someone to come open, because

200
00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:34,840
Speaker 2: I don't care which secondary you're going up against, including yours,

201
00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,400
Speaker 2: best one in the country. Is not throwing a blanket

202
00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:41,120
Speaker 2: over someone for nine seconds. That doesn't happen. Second best

203
00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,640
Speaker 2: question here, or biggest rather, is what is this offensive

204
00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:48,720
Speaker 2: line going to allow this defense to do. I remember

205
00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,760
Speaker 2: this time a year ago we were getting ready for

206
00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:53,240
Speaker 2: the season. I guess it was a little bit earlier

207
00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,480
Speaker 2: than this time a year ago, and offensive line was

208
00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:58,720
Speaker 2: a question at LSU. But some people inside the program

209
00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:02,000
Speaker 2: were saying, a lot is being overblown about the questions

210
00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:06,480
Speaker 2: around our offensive line because the offensive philosophical shift here

211
00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:09,640
Speaker 2: is going to be such that if there are weaknesses

212
00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,840
Speaker 2: and vulnerabilities here, we can mask them.

213
00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:13,880
Speaker 1: Well, what happened was LSU went on to win.

214
00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:16,040
Speaker 2: The Joe More Award Because I mentioned earlier best offensive

215
00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:17,480
Speaker 2: line in the country. So you had the best quarterback

216
00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:19,960
Speaker 2: in the country with the best offensive line in the country,

217
00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,040
Speaker 2: at least in terms of the award in front of him.

218
00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:24,200
Speaker 2: So now a lot of that changes, and you have

219
00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,000
Speaker 2: Miles Brennan. So you come back to earth a little

220
00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,440
Speaker 2: bit you would figure from a quarterback production standpoint, but

221
00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:32,400
Speaker 2: you also wonder when you know offensive line play and

222
00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:35,679
Speaker 2: the difference in just the fractions of a second and

223
00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:39,040
Speaker 2: fractions of an inch. That's the kind of stuff that's

224
00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:42,480
Speaker 2: worth in all likelihood one or two wins. If you're

225
00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,360
Speaker 2: going to play a lot of one possession type ballgames,

226
00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:47,440
Speaker 2: which I think they will, those fractions of seconds and inches,

227
00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,160
Speaker 2: that's all the difference in the world. And last year

228
00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:51,760
Speaker 2: they were able to come out on the plus side

229
00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,160
Speaker 2: and that equation, and that is a big question mark

230
00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:56,880
Speaker 2: for me this year, the third one. And I rarely

231
00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,840
Speaker 2: take our biggest questions and focus on one non quarterback

232
00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:03,319
Speaker 2: pl layer, much less a true freshman, but we're gonna

233
00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:06,800
Speaker 2: do it here. I could not have been any bigger

234
00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:10,520
Speaker 2: a believer in Eric Gilbert even during his recruitment. I

235
00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:13,320
Speaker 2: was very surprised when he committed to LSU, and he

236
00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,680
Speaker 2: has obviously since signed with LSU. He's got really good

237
00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:18,199
Speaker 2: choice and style there. As you can see in the

238
00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:20,640
Speaker 2: shorts if you were watching on the video. Eric Gilbert

239
00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:22,400
Speaker 2: is going to be one of the best players in

240
00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:25,000
Speaker 2: the SEC this year. He's never played it down, never

241
00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,040
Speaker 2: played it down in college football. I think if healthy,

242
00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:29,680
Speaker 2: of course, he will be one of the best players

243
00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:32,200
Speaker 2: in the SEC this year. What I wonder about him

244
00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:34,600
Speaker 2: is they're gonna play him. Obviously, He's gonna be one

245
00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:36,760
Speaker 2: of the focal points of their offense, and they'd be

246
00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:40,240
Speaker 2: dumb not to. I wonder what he allows them to

247
00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:43,559
Speaker 2: do in terms of multiplicity and flexibility. Last year, when

248
00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:46,400
Speaker 2: you watched LSU, they never had the sub They just

249
00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,760
Speaker 2: go up and down the field twelve thirteen play drives.

250
00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:50,800
Speaker 2: If it took them that long to score, you get

251
00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:53,840
Speaker 2: the idea here. They never had the sub tempo tempo

252
00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:56,760
Speaker 2: tempo and you couldn't sub, and they could go heavy

253
00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:58,960
Speaker 2: and they could go full spread on you and keep

254
00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:00,720
Speaker 2: the same kind of players on the feat. I wonder

255
00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:02,600
Speaker 2: if Eric Gilbert allows them to do that, or if

256
00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,080
Speaker 2: when he's on the field you understand what's coming. Now

257
00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:06,840
Speaker 2: you may still not be able to stop it, but

258
00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,160
Speaker 2: you understand E're throwing the ball here. Or is Eric

259
00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,080
Speaker 2: Gilbert the kind of guy who can inline block for

260
00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:13,600
Speaker 2: you as a true freshman and be a viable option

261
00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:14,040
Speaker 2: doing that.

262
00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:15,240
Speaker 1: Can he get his nose dirty?

263
00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:17,440
Speaker 2: Is he the kind of guy even as a true freshman,

264
00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:19,199
Speaker 2: who is so advanced physically that he.

265
00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:19,520
Speaker 1: Can do that?

266
00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:21,600
Speaker 2: So those are some questions that I have about LSU

267
00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:24,920
Speaker 2: as for record projections. As I've told you, and if

268
00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:27,480
Speaker 2: you haven't watched these before, what we like to do here.

269
00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,200
Speaker 2: Instead of doing the predicted win win, win loss, win,

270
00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:32,440
Speaker 2: win win loss, seven and three, eight and two, that's

271
00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,080
Speaker 2: what we think you're going to do, what we try

272
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,599
Speaker 2: and do is apply something that's a little more databased

273
00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:39,640
Speaker 2: and a little more skillful in nature than just guessing

274
00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:41,560
Speaker 2: who's going to be healthy two months from now. So

275
00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:43,600
Speaker 2: what we do is we apply a toughness rating to

276
00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:45,960
Speaker 2: every game that you play. A lot of situational factors

277
00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:49,040
Speaker 2: are taken into account here. So Collin's got that graphic

278
00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:51,160
Speaker 2: for us, and we're going to show you LSU's schedule

279
00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:53,079
Speaker 2: this year, and I'm going to tell you one to ten,

280
00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:55,120
Speaker 2: ten being the toughest, what I think about these games,

281
00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:56,600
Speaker 2: and I want you to take notice of something.

282
00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:57,960
Speaker 1: I'm going to come back to this in the second.

283
00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,480
Speaker 2: LSU does not play a game rated seven or higher

284
00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:05,600
Speaker 2: until Week four, but they do play four games eventually

285
00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:08,599
Speaker 2: rated eight or higher. They do play them, they're just

286
00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:10,400
Speaker 2: a little bit later in the season. I got them

287
00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,880
Speaker 2: playing two games rated ten. That's at Florida and that's

288
00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:15,400
Speaker 2: against Alabama at home. We got two more games rated

289
00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,480
Speaker 2: eight or nine. Schedule makers did them a favor now

290
00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:20,680
Speaker 2: because they've only got four of them. Some teams in

291
00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,920
Speaker 2: this conference played five or maybe even six of that nature.

292
00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,040
Speaker 1: They got five games rated six to seven.

293
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,120
Speaker 2: No reason why they shouldn't be able to win every

294
00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,600
Speaker 2: single one of those games. That's not a prediction. My

295
00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:32,720
Speaker 2: predictions coming in just a second. And then they got

296
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:35,280
Speaker 2: one game rated five or less. So let's talk about

297
00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:37,640
Speaker 2: what our models spit out. This is what our model

298
00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,920
Speaker 2: spat out for the best, worst, and most likely record

299
00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:44,040
Speaker 2: projections wide variants here because of the talent but also

300
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,959
Speaker 2: the inexperience. Best case for LSU is all the way

301
00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,920
Speaker 2: up at nine and one. The worst case was five

302
00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:53,400
Speaker 2: and five, and our computer model has seven and three

303
00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:57,080
Speaker 2: as its most likely record projection for LSU this year.

304
00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:58,760
Speaker 1: I got to be honest with you.

305
00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,720
Speaker 2: I went against our own model projection with LSU by

306
00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,079
Speaker 2: one game, and I actually bumped my official.

307
00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:08,080
Speaker 1: Prediction of LSU up to eight and two.

308
00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:11,480
Speaker 2: And it is heavily influenced by what I've heard out

309
00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:13,720
Speaker 2: of there in about the past week and a half.

310
00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,240
Speaker 2: And it's because the same people that had the same

311
00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,680
Speaker 2: optimism last year have optimism this year, not to the

312
00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,080
Speaker 2: degree they had last year. But it's the kind of

313
00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,280
Speaker 2: reputation that you start to depend on. It's the kind

314
00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,160
Speaker 2: of people you know you can depend on. And I

315
00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,360
Speaker 2: don't think that they'd necessarily sell me a bill of

316
00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:31,640
Speaker 2: goods and the other thing that I want to focus on.

317
00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,360
Speaker 2: That led me to lean towards eight and two, which

318
00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:36,400
Speaker 2: is closer to the best case, I guess than what

319
00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,440
Speaker 2: our models spat out for the most likely. I look

320
00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,520
Speaker 2: at their schedule that Colin just showed you there, and

321
00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,719
Speaker 2: like I said, they don't start out with Alabama week

322
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,000
Speaker 2: one Florida week three. That's not the way their schedule

323
00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:50,240
Speaker 2: sets up. So if they're vulnerable, they'll be the most vulnerable.

324
00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:52,560
Speaker 2: It stands to reason early in the season. But you

325
00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:56,040
Speaker 2: look at the schedule Colin showing you Mississippi State double

326
00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,400
Speaker 2: digit favorite, Vanderbilt double digit favorite, Missouri double digit favorite.

327
00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,000
Speaker 2: They have almost a month to get whatever they need

328
00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,880
Speaker 2: to get in order in order before they play Florida. Now,

329
00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:07,760
Speaker 2: that Florida game is not a game that I figure

330
00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:10,880
Speaker 2: them to be favored in. It's a game that's winnable certainly.

331
00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:13,120
Speaker 2: And if they were to get through that, or even

332
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 2: if they don't get through that, look at how this

333
00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,080
Speaker 2: sets up for them South Carolina coming in there. You

334
00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,680
Speaker 2: may wonder why that's a seven. Look what it's sandwiched

335
00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:24,320
Speaker 2: between games against Florida and Auburn on the road. No less,

336
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,960
Speaker 2: that's why it's a seven. Not because South Carolina's gonna

337
00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:28,080
Speaker 2: set the world on fire this year.

338
00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,440
Speaker 1: It is a workable schedule. It is not easy, but

339
00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:32,120
Speaker 1: it is workable.

340
00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,680
Speaker 2: And after they get through that stretch of Florida and

341
00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,080
Speaker 2: Auburn and there's a bye week there and then Alabama

342
00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:38,600
Speaker 2: three games in five weeks.

343
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:40,480
Speaker 1: I mean, who in the world.

344
00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:41,800
Speaker 2: Knows what Texas A and M is gonna be. I

345
00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:43,680
Speaker 2: only know what I know about A and M. Now,

346
00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:44,920
Speaker 2: I don't know what A and M is gonna be

347
00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:46,760
Speaker 2: at the point they played, and that's a rivalry game.

348
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:48,680
Speaker 2: A and M's got a very good roster. It's been

349
00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,360
Speaker 2: dealt a couple of blows lately. But eight and two

350
00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:53,760
Speaker 2: that's what I'm going with for LSU for my most

351
00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:56,320
Speaker 2: likely record projection this year. And I will take your

352
00:14:56,400 --> 00:15:00,320
Speaker 2: comments where else in the comment section. But we got

353
00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,120
Speaker 2: a lot of games this week to talk about, and

354
00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:05,320
Speaker 2: I'm going to talk about the LSU Mississippi State game

355
00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,680
Speaker 2: Thursday night, so you want to tune back in for that.

356
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:10,360
Speaker 2: But as for our focus games this week, we got

357
00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:11,000
Speaker 2: a couple of them.

358
00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 1: In the SEC.

359
00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:15,200
Speaker 2: Tennessee goes to South Carolina Tennessee right now a three

360
00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:17,560
Speaker 2: point favorite, maybe three and a half, depending on which

361
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,880
Speaker 2: outlet you're looking at. This is a seven thirty Eastern

362
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,440
Speaker 2: kickoff on the SEC network. There may not be a

363
00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:27,040
Speaker 2: more unpredictable game all year in the SEC East than

364
00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:29,560
Speaker 2: this one. But I want to deal a pretty harsh

365
00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:33,920
Speaker 2: reminder to everyone watching here, including coaching staffs, players, what

366
00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:34,320
Speaker 2: have you.

367
00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,320
Speaker 1: Everyone knows that people have been dealing with COVID.

368
00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,640
Speaker 2: I mean, Tennessee has been riddled with COVID headlines more

369
00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:43,160
Speaker 2: than even football headlines. And that's all well and good

370
00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,560
Speaker 2: until you lose a game. No one cares about the

371
00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:50,400
Speaker 2: excuses for COVID. No one cares to spend thirty seconds

372
00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:54,040
Speaker 2: listening to Tennessee lose twenty three to thirteen Saturday and

373
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:57,160
Speaker 2: then afterwards say we just you know, COVID dealt us

374
00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:57,680
Speaker 2: a tough blow.

375
00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 1: Man.

376
00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:00,520
Speaker 2: We couldn't get ready. That may be true, No one

377
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,160
Speaker 2: wants to hear it. That's just a harsh reality. If

378
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:05,000
Speaker 2: you were doing this for charity, maybe you're not. You're

379
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 2: getting paid a whole lot of money for this, so

380
00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,000
Speaker 2: right or wrong, fair or foul, that's the way it is.

381
00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:10,920
Speaker 2: Plenty of focus is going to be on Colin Hill,

382
00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:13,640
Speaker 2: not the director of the show, but the recently named

383
00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,800
Speaker 2: starting quarterback for the University of South Carolina. Does he

384
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,320
Speaker 2: have a chance to succeed Colin Hill? Even independent of

385
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,400
Speaker 2: his skill set? He came over with Mike Bobo on

386
00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:25,200
Speaker 2: the transfer market from Colorado State and recently won the

387
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,800
Speaker 2: job over Ryan Helensky for this game. I don't know

388
00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,280
Speaker 2: if that's a season long decision, but he's starting Saturday.

389
00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 2: Is he going to be given the chance to succeed

390
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:32,800
Speaker 2: by that?

391
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:33,240
Speaker 1: Of course?

392
00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,040
Speaker 2: I mean I look at the offensive line here. Certainly,

393
00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,280
Speaker 2: the wide receiver corps is a question. The running back

394
00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:41,560
Speaker 2: stable minus Marshawn Lloyd is a question. How many of

395
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,480
Speaker 2: these units are truly sec caliber. I was over on

396
00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:47,200
Speaker 2: the Big Spur today. I saw some of the guys

397
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:48,800
Speaker 2: over there asking some of the same questions.

398
00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:50,040
Speaker 1: In fact, I think you guys.

399
00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:53,880
Speaker 2: Have been pretty brutally and fairly honest about your preseason assessments.

400
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:57,440
Speaker 2: Here there's optimism, but it's all surrounded by these little

401
00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,640
Speaker 2: question marks. Every thought bubble above your head has a

402
00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,880
Speaker 2: little question marks in it. There have been flashes of

403
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,280
Speaker 2: competition in practice. I don't doubt that everyone has that.

404
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,119
Speaker 2: You can't have the kind of athletes that you have

405
00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,399
Speaker 2: at a major SEC university and not have flashes of

406
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,960
Speaker 2: promise in practice. But I also don't think that South

407
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,240
Speaker 2: Carolina is going to put anything on the field in

408
00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 2: terms of perimeter skill that Tennessee.

409
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:21,359
Speaker 1: Is not equipped to handle.

410
00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:25,680
Speaker 2: So how is South Carolina going to generate offensive production here?

411
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,919
Speaker 2: How much offensive production do they need? And that maybe

412
00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:30,639
Speaker 2: doesn't correlate with how many points they need? You know,

413
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:32,080
Speaker 2: I'll get back to that in just a second.

414
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,400
Speaker 1: As for Tennessee, something I like, something I don't like here?

415
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:38,680
Speaker 2: What I love in a year like I said, where

416
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:40,520
Speaker 2: they've been ravaged in an off season, where they've been

417
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,880
Speaker 2: ravaged by all kinds of COVID concerns and you don't

418
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,600
Speaker 2: know who's gotten how much practice time, We don't fully

419
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:47,520
Speaker 2: know who's going to play Saturday. To be honest with you,

420
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,439
Speaker 2: here's what I know they have I know they've got

421
00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:52,119
Speaker 2: a head coach that was there last year. I know

422
00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:55,240
Speaker 2: Jim Cheney, the offensive coordinator was there last year. I know,

423
00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:57,640
Speaker 2: for better or for worse, Jeri Garantano was there last year.

424
00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,200
Speaker 2: I know they've got a veteran offensive line that maybe

425
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,159
Speaker 2: one of, if not the best, in the country. A

426
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:05,480
Speaker 2: lot of those things I know, and why that matters

427
00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,680
Speaker 2: is because in a game that could very well be sloppy,

428
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 2: at least, what I think that does is it removes

429
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,399
Speaker 2: the possibility of me looking up in Tennessee and South

430
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:17,040
Speaker 2: Carolina are in an absolute dogfight in the fourth quarter.

431
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,520
Speaker 2: Both teams have turned it over three times, and Tennessee

432
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,440
Speaker 2: has one hundred and twenty five yards in procedural penalties.

433
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 1: At least I think I know that won't happen.

434
00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 2: I don't know about the turnovers, but at least I

435
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,119
Speaker 2: think I know you're not constantly shooting yourself in the foot.

436
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 2: Crowd noise shouldn't be nearly as big an issue as

437
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:34,119
Speaker 2: it normally would on the road. That's what I like

438
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 2: about what I think I know about Tennessee. What I

439
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 2: concern what I concern myself with with what I think

440
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,400
Speaker 2: I know about Tennessee. Is you remember one year ago,

441
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:44,919
Speaker 2: not this week, but one year ago in the twenty

442
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:49,199
Speaker 2: nineteen season, Will Muschamp showed that he knows how to

443
00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,400
Speaker 2: steal a whim. Now he had to be plus four

444
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,960
Speaker 2: turnovers to do it, but they did it at Georgia.

445
00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 2: They weren't the better team last year. They ended up

446
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:58,200
Speaker 2: being the better team that afternoon.

447
00:18:58,800 --> 00:18:59,640
Speaker 1: They didn't have.

448
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:03,159
Speaker 2: The necessary offensive production that day. So I circle back around,

449
00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,239
Speaker 2: can Colin Hill get what he needs here? But I

450
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,200
Speaker 2: also in the secondary nature, ask how many offensive points

451
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 2: do they need? Do they have seventeen non offensive points

452
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,040
Speaker 2: that are scored in this game? Do they have starting

453
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,080
Speaker 2: fuel positions three of which start inside the Tennessee twenty

454
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:18,160
Speaker 2: five yard line because of.

455
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:19,400
Speaker 1: Turnovers or kick returns?

456
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 2: That kind of stuff is what I'm concerned with most

457
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 2: when it comes to Tennessee Because as much as I

458
00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:28,160
Speaker 2: believe in that offensive line, as much as I believe

459
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,919
Speaker 2: that the consistency will help them quarterback year over year,

460
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,840
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator, head coach year over year, when we know

461
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 2: that as many kids have missed time as have missed

462
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,159
Speaker 2: time at Tennessee, and when we know they've had as

463
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 2: much disruption as they've had. When we know as recently

464
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,119
Speaker 2: as a week ago, Jeremy prut was saying things like,

465
00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 2: we're gonna have to kind of roll into the season

466
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,640
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks still in camp mode, just because

467
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,439
Speaker 2: we don't have guys ready. You know where that affects you,

468
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,120
Speaker 2: That affects you on special teams. I think it would

469
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 2: be foolish to assume that they've gotten all the guys

470
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 2: that need to contribute on special teams, all reps they

471
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,679
Speaker 2: need to have in practice on special teams.

472
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:03,400
Speaker 1: I tend to.

473
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 2: Believe they've struggled to get guys who are just gonna

474
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 2: play corner or receiver enough reps there to feel comfortable.

475
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:13,199
Speaker 2: You're talking about added reps needed on kick units and

476
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:14,119
Speaker 2: return units.

477
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 1: That's where that game could swing.

478
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 2: You're not looking at a point spread of twenty five here,

479
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,879
Speaker 2: it's three, and that's where that thing could swing. And

480
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,239
Speaker 2: Will Muss Champion Company showed you last year and they

481
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 2: are fully capable of stealing a win from you. You could

482
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 2: be plus one hundred and fifty yards on them. But

483
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 2: if you don't win that hidden yardage game, and if

484
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 2: you give them an opening there, they can kick the

485
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 2: door in they're talented enough to do that. They're not

486
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 2: going to contend with you Georgia or Alabama. They can

487
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:38,920
Speaker 2: kick the door in and get an upset win early

488
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,880
Speaker 2: in the season. So let's look at our game capsule here,

489
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:42,719
Speaker 2: and then I'm going to give you my official prediction

490
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 2: on it.

491
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 1: So, as I.

492
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 2: Said, the Vegas number right now, Tennessee minus three. Our

493
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 2: model likes Tennessee more than the odds makers do. We've

494
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 2: got the balls all the way up. In fact I

495
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 2: put six and a half, it's about six point seven,

496
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 2: and so it's almost a full touchdown that we like

497
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 2: Tennessee in this game, and I have no reason to

498
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,160
Speaker 2: go against that. Having said all of what I said

499
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 2: about special teams, I have yet to find a model

500
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,200
Speaker 2: that consistently forecasts hidden yardage one way or the other.

501
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 2: I mean, that is a crapshoot. That is a Bob special,

502
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 2: bounce of balls special, the likes of which we can't forecast.

503
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 2: So I have no choice but to go with this.

504
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with Tennessee to win the game.

505
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,879
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with Tennessee to cover, and we

506
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 2: like the balls to start one to zero probably the game.

507
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,119
Speaker 2: I'm looking most forward to out of any game and

508
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 2: opening weekend is Auburn Kentucky. Auburn and Kentucky they play

509
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 2: in week one on the planes. We're about to talk

510
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 2: about it and break it down right now. These are,

511
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 2: for my money, the two sleeper teams in the SEC

512
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 2: each division. These are the two teams that either people

513
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 2: don't want to buy into in the case of Kentucky,

514
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 2: just because they don't feel like the roster is adequate

515
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 2: to compete at the highest level, or in Auburn's case,

516
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,440
Speaker 2: maybe the roster is talented year in and year out,

517
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 2: but in this particular year, you have so many question

518
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 2: marks everywhere you don't know what to expect. So they

519
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,880
Speaker 2: play each other naturally in Week one. Let's talk about

520
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 2: this for a second, easily by ten miles. To me,

521
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:12,679
Speaker 2: the biggest key match up here is Kentucky's offensive line.

522
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 1: I think they have guys drawing retirement.

523
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 2: They get AARP mail already, that's how experienced they are

524
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 2: on the offensive line. And they're going to come in

525
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 2: and they're going to face an Auburn team whose hallmark

526
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,959
Speaker 2: has been stellar defensive line play for the past several years,

527
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 2: and they just lost a guy by the name of

528
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 2: Derek Brown, and they just lost a guy by the

529
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 2: name of Marlon Davidson.

530
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 1: And there's a lot.

531
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,959
Speaker 2: Of think at Auburn they think they have the guys

532
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 2: necessary to plug and play here. They think that, I

533
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,440
Speaker 2: don't know that, they don't know that. It is probably

534
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 2: one of the biggest tests that you could have to open.

535
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 1: Because here's the thing.

536
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 2: I know a lot of people when you're trying to

537
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 2: find an upset in week one, or trying to find

538
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 2: an upset period, you want to find that game no

539
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 2: one's talking about, and everyone's talking about Kentucky.

540
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 1: Bud Elliott was in our slack room.

541
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 2: Today and he was saying, am I the only one

542
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 2: that hasn't picked Kentucky yet? It seems like everyone's picking

543
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 2: Kentucky here? And so that turned some people off. Now,

544
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 2: let's talk about the match up here in and of itself,

545
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 2: this offensive line match up against Auburn's thus far, I

546
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 2: would say unproven at the highest level. Defensive line stands

547
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 2: to reason. When it's week one, you think, oh man,

548
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 2: so many people have talked about this offensive line deal that.

549
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 2: I mean, Auburn's gonna know that's coming. Yeah, they do.

550
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 2: They probably knew it was coming along before you ever

551
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 2: thought about it. But here's the thing about being out

552
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 2: physical at the line of scrimmage.

553
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 1: Here's the thing about having a physical.

554
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,400
Speaker 2: Edge at the line of scrimmage. You can know it's

555
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 2: coming five years ahead of time. Five years you could

556
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 2: recruit to stop it. So you can know it's coming

557
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,959
Speaker 2: five months ahead of time. It doesn't matter if the

558
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 2: edge is there. The edge is there. It's like if

559
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 2: Colin were to walk in here sledge hammer in hand,

560
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 2: he's crazy, he'll do it. If he were to walk

561
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,159
Speaker 2: in here sledge hammer in hand, and I were just

562
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 2: handcuffed here, I could know he's about to swing that

563
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 2: thing and take my head off.

564
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:58,479
Speaker 1: This is violent.

565
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 2: Put it like a T fourteen rating on this preview.

566
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 2: It wouldn't hurt any less, it wouldn't be any less effective.

567
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 2: And so if Kentucky does possess the ability to lean

568
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,919
Speaker 2: on Auburn for four quarters and shorten this game and

569
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,439
Speaker 2: shave possessions down, doesn't matter if you, I, Kevin Steele,

570
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 2: Gus Malson, anyone else knows it's coming, They're still going

571
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 2: to be able to do it. So the big question

572
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 2: is will they be able to do it if they are,

573
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,199
Speaker 2: and I think that's one of the concerns that Auburn

574
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: has down there of how do they stand up physically

575
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 2: replacing some stallwarts, some annual stalwarts in the SEC.

576
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: I'm really looking forward to that because two edges.

577
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 2: If you really think about this, just say Auburn versus

578
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 2: Kentucky at home, two edges that you would normally expect

579
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 2: Auburn to have ninety nine percent of the time would

580
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 2: be a huge home field advantage that's going to affect Kentucky.

581
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 2: And you would expect them to have sizeable advantages on

582
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,399
Speaker 2: the lines of scrimmage, and I don't know that they

583
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:52,879
Speaker 2: have either. In fact, I know they don't have a

584
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 2: huge home field in this one. No one does, guys.

585
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 2: I don't know that they have that line of scrimmage

586
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 2: edge either. If they do, it's pretty negligible to start

587
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,640
Speaker 2: the year. If they played six weeks from now, maybe

588
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 2: it's different. The Auburn offense, what to expect, what to

589
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 2: expect kind of rhetorical here, because we're going to find

590
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 2: out Saturday, But consider the offensive line on Auburn's side,

591
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 2: they're replacing half a million guys. They again think they

592
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 2: think they have some adequate replacements here. It's been a

593
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,360
Speaker 2: weird year. No one's had access to practice. We don't

594
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 2: really know, we hear whispers. Brodarius Ham is one of

595
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 2: the best names in college football, gets his shot at tackle.

596
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 2: They got to transfer in from Akron that they're going

597
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 2: to be able to hopefully count on Nick Broms at

598
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 2: Center's got a lot of experience, so they hope that

599
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 2: those guys are reliable. I think running backs the run game, period,

600
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 2: but the running back position has to be the engine

601
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 2: of this team early on. As much as you want

602
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 2: to believe in bo Nick's returning and that natural year

603
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: one to year two progression and that natural bringing in

604
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 2: of Chad Morris new passing concepts, let me tell you

605
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 2: what the passing game is going to be for Auburn

606
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 2: passing game early in the season. Probably not going to

607
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 2: look a whole lot different. You go play action, play action,

608
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 2: you go run, run on deep shot. That's going to

609
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 2: be early in the season what their passing game is.

610
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 2: But here's the difference. I think they will incorporate far

611
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 2: more heavily running backs and h backs and tight ends

612
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:14,160
Speaker 2: in this passing game, and so that coupled with four

613
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 2: guys that they really believe they can count on it

614
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 2: running back. That has to be the engine in this game,

615
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 2: and it has to be the engine early in the

616
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 2: season period. The surprise element here that I don't know

617
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 2: that I've heard anyone talk about that I think could

618
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 2: decide this game is Kentucky's passing game. You didn't say

619
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,879
Speaker 2: that last year. You didn't definitely didn't say it with

620
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 2: Terry Wilson there. In fact, all anyone knew was, Hey,

621
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 2: did you know Kentucky's got a wide receiver playing quarterback?

622
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: Yeah we know, Yeah they know too. So Terry Wilson

623
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 2: he's back. Joey Gatewood's up there. We don't ever know

624
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 2: if he's going to be clear, but Terry Wilson he's back.

625
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,399
Speaker 2: Let me tell you two facets of Auburn's defense that

626
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 2: are relative unknowns right now, pass rush and depth at corner. Now,

627
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 2: Auburn fans, if you're watching this, you feel pretty comfortable

628
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 2: about that depth at corner behind Roger McCreary. You know,

629
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 2: lately there have been some names emerged there. I just

630
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 2: want to caution you. These guys may pan out brilliantly.

631
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 2: Names are not quality, depth. Names are just that names,

632
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 2: and you never know if you got a bunch of

633
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:17,879
Speaker 2: average options that are battling it out and those are

634
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 2: the names you were hearing, or if you've got a

635
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 2: bunch of excellent options battling it out and those are

636
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 2: the names you hear. So right now, what we know

637
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,439
Speaker 2: is Auburn's got a lot of names in that second

638
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 2: corner spot and it's listen, it's a great story. I mean,

639
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 2: Jalen Simpson is a guy who was not slated to

640
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,640
Speaker 2: take that number two corner spot at Auburn a month ago.

641
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 2: Well he's taken it, and that's wonderful. But when you

642
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 2: lack potentially pass rush, you even give Kentucky time to

643
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 2: throw the ball, and you may have questions about depth

644
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 2: at corner. Could it be that as everyone's focused on

645
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,400
Speaker 2: that running game and everyone's focused on Kentucky shaving possessions

646
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 2: and minutes off of that game, could it be that

647
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 2: a couple of explosive plays through the air of all

648
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 2: things are what tilts that game for Kentucky. So wild card,

649
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 2: Just like like I said in the Tennessee Game Special Teams,

650
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 2: Auburn has a lot of inexperienced a lot of youth

651
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 2: at new positions, and so they've been hit by the

652
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 2: COVID bug. They had to cancel or delay practices for

653
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 2: a little while. You never know how that affected special teams. Kentucky,

654
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 2: on the other side, pretty veteran laden, so you didn't

655
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 2: hear nearly as many negative headlines in the COVID world

656
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 2: out of Kentucky.

657
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,880
Speaker 1: So don't know. The hidden yardige game don't know.

658
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 2: Could be another slight, unseen edge towards Kentucky. It sounds

659
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 2: like I'm picking Kentucky by three touchdowns. Well, let's waste

660
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 2: no more time. Let's take a look at this colin.

661
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 2: We have the game capsule for this one, Vegas Lime

662
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 2: Auburn minus seven and a half. I think there's probably

663
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 2: no more important half a point in the world of

664
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 2: betting in college football this week than that seven and

665
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 2: a half versus seven. We are much tighter on this game.

666
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 2: Our model likes Auburn to win, but it's narrow. I

667
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 2: think it was three point seventy five and I rounded

668
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:51,959
Speaker 2: it up to four just because it looks cool. So

669
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: we've got Auburn winning by four. I'm not going to

670
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 2: second guess the model here. I feel in my heart

671
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 2: of hearts that Auburn will find a way to win

672
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 2: this game. I don't necessarily think that it will be

673
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 2: an instant museum hangable classic. I think it'll probably be

674
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,239
Speaker 2: one that well. If Kentucky wins, they'll love it. If

675
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 2: Auburn wins this thing, there's still a chance they'll want

676
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 2: to wad that thing up and throw it away in

677
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 2: terms of esthetics. But a win is a win is

678
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 2: a win, especially this year. So we like Auburn to win,

679
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 2: but we like Kentucky to cover love trying to thread

680
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 2: that seven and a half point needle. I was perusing

681
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 2: Twitter as you do earlier today, and a lot of

682
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 2: you were asking me a question about UCF and about

683
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 2: teams in Florida, and I didn't know where it was

684
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 2: coming from.

685
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: I said, we talked about Central Florida.

686
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 2: Sunday night, they had a really good opener against Georgia

687
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 2: Tech and they won, and I mean, I thought we

688
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 2: gave them a lot of credit, and we did. It

689
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 2: wasn't about what we said, But I slowly came to

690
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 2: realize what you were talking about was there was a

691
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 2: quote that it surfaced from Dylan Gabriel. So the quote

692
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 2: from Dylan Gabriel, who is the quarterback, A very good one,

693
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 2: might I add? At Central Florida. He said, we're the

694
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 2: best team in Florida. I have no problem with that.

695
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 2: Confidence is a wonderful thing. Dylan Gabriel is a wonderful player.

696
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 2: I just want to kind of frame this by taking

697
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 2: you back. Occasionally we hop in the time portal, So

698
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 2: I want to take you back twenty years. Let's go

699
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 2: back to the two thousand version of you, wherever you

700
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 2: are in life. What if I told you we're going

701
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 2: to be having an argument in the year twenty twenty,

702
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 2: and it's going to be who's the best team in Florida,

703
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 2: State of Florida, Who's the best college football team? And

704
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 2: the argument is going to be Florida, Miami and Florida

705
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 2: State fighting over whether.

706
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 1: They're better than Central Florida. What do we think about that?

707
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 2: Do you even know outside of geographically it being an area?

708
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 2: Do you even know what Central Florida is back then?

709
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 2: And so that's where we find ourselves. Now, let me

710
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:47,959
Speaker 2: tell you what I think about all this after I

711
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 2: tell you what someone else thought about it earlier.

712
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 1: Today.

713
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 2: Andrea Adlson works for ESPN. This is not a segment

714
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 2: meant to knock Andrea Addlson. She was just the messenger.

715
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 2: She delivered the quote from Dylan Gabriel, we're the best

716
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 2: team in Florida. So then Andrea on Twitter earlier today

717
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 2: and I want to stress again she does a great

718
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:06,959
Speaker 2: job covering the sport. This is not a shot at

719
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: her at all.

720
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 1: She said.

721
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 2: I went to ESPN Stats and Info and I asked them,

722
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 2: could you generate point spreads? Could you tell me who

723
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 2: would be favored? Now that's a good question on her part.

724
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 2: Here's the problem. ESPN spat back FPI, which is their

725
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 2: own internal whatever system they use to say the least

726
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 2: is not all that highly respected in the betting world.

727
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: Let's just leave it at that.

728
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 2: And so the problem is they didn't say here's what

729
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 2: we think the scores would be. They said here's what

730
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 2: the point spreads would be. And here's what they shot

731
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 2: out at you. They said, we think Central Florida would

732
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 2: be a fourteen point favorite against Florida State. We think

733
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 2: Central Florida would be a thirteen point favorite against Miami.

734
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 2: You probably already see the flaw here, but let me continue.

735
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 2: And we think Central Florida would be a one point

736
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 2: favorite against Florida. Now, I want you to understand how

737
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 2: flawed this is and how much you should see through

738
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 2: this and really just FPI in general, which I used

739
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 2: as a pinata from time to time on this show

740
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 2: over the last couple of years. Just FPI in one word. No, no,

741
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 2: just brush it aside. Watch it as you would Comedy Central,

742
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 2: but then brush it aside. I want you to understand

743
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 2: what they just tried to pass off on you as

744
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 2: actual information. They told you there's a team that would

745
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 2: be favored by fourteen against Florida State. That same team

746
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 2: would be favored by thirteen against Miami. Those two teams

747
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 2: play Saturday. Guys, this is not hard to figure out.

748
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 2: It is really not hard to calculate point spreads. A

749
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 2: lot of people tend to believe that there's this odds

750
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 2: maker in a dark, smoky room in Las Vegas and

751
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:41,719
Speaker 2: they shake a magic eight ball and then they just

752
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 2: whatever the eight ball says, that's what the line is.

753
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 2: That's not the way this works, believe it or not.

754
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 2: There's this math thing that works its way into the equation.

755
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 2: Florida State goes to Miami Saturday and they play. Miami

756
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 2: is favored by eleven and a half points against Florida State.

757
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 2: Let's shave off the one one and a half points

758
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 2: that they're pretty standardly giving for home field. That means

759
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 2: odds makers are telling you Miami is ten points better

760
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 2: than Florida State. How in the world is there only

761
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 2: a one point gap? Then you should ask between what

762
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,959
Speaker 2: Central Florida would be favored by against Florida State and

763
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 2: what they'd be favored by against Miami. Answer, there isn't one.

764
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 2: It's just made up. So that's not what those point

765
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 2: spreads would be. And I'm not gonna sit here and

766
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 2: tell you definitively what.

767
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 1: They would be. Here's what I will do and what.

768
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 2: FPI should have done, and that is tell you what

769
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: we think the number would be.

770
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 1: This is what we would project.

771
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 2: There's a big difference in what we think versus what

772
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 2: the actual line would be.

773
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 1: Big difference. So here's what we.

774
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 2: Think I had our had I plugged all these games

775
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 2: into our model, we would favor Florida University of Florida

776
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 2: by thirteen points neutral field against Central Florida today if

777
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 2: they played, we would favor Miami by two and a

778
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 2: half points against Central Florida. We would favor Central Florida

779
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 2: by thirteen and a half against Florida State.

780
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 1: Now I want you to know two things.

781
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 2: I would take Central Florida plus the two and a

782
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 2: half against Miami. I would give strong consideration to taking

783
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 2: them plus the thirteen against Florida.

784
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 1: But that's what our model thinks the numbers would be.

785
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 2: So I just if you are into the world of

786
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 2: sports wagering, you saw through that immediately. But what's kind

787
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 2: of aggravating is a lot of you don't concern yourself

788
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 2: with that, and you save a lot of money in

789
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 2: the process. But you hear that and you just think

790
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 2: it's true because if it wasn't true, why would they

791
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 2: tell you that. Well, they'd tell you that for reasons.

792
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 2: I don't need to get into because it'll get me

793
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 2: in trouble. But just know everything's not always as it appears.

794
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 2: Speaking of which, let's wrap the show up tonight with

795
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 2: an addition or two to our Rama Noodle Express. The

796
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,800
Speaker 2: Rama Noodle Express was two and three last week. The

797
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 2: Rama Noodle Express will not remain sub five hundred for

798
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 2: very long. So we opened up with our original play

799
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 2: that we do every Sunday night, we give you our

800
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 2: best bet of the week, and we gave you Florida

801
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 2: minus twelve and a half. A lot of you probably

802
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 2: noticed the next day Florida went to minus fifteen.

803
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 1: I think it's at fourteen and a half right now.

804
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 2: That's why it's important not to miss a show, and

805
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 2: that's why it's really important to watch the Sunday night show,

806
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 2: because that's where we get you sometimes our first best bet.

807
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 2: Sometimes I'll give you two or three on a Sunday night.

808
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 2: Having said that, Colin has a brand new edition on

809
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 2: the graphic of the Lorom Noodle Express that we use

810
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 2: all week to give you tonight. So we already gave

811
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 2: you Florida minus twelve and a half. We are going

812
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 2: down to Baton Rouge, Louisiana and we are going over

813
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 2: fifty six in Mississippi State versus LSU. Feel very good

814
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 2: about that when getting into the sixties.

815
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 1: So so far.

816
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 2: We got Florida minus twelve and a half, we got

817
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 2: Mississippi State LSU over fifty six. I may not wait

818
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 2: until Thursday night to fill those remaining three boxes in

819
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 2: I just want you to know. Follow me on Twitter

820
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 2: at late Kick Josh but also listen to the podcasts

821
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 2: because there may very well be a case where I

822
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 2: drop one or two of those in a podcast, and

823
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 2: so you don't want to miss those.

824
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 1: Oh and by the way, if you haven't or if.

825
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 2: You're new maybe to the entire Latekick experience, here's the

826
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,800
Speaker 2: way that works. We do Sunday night, Tuesday night, Thursday

827
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 2: night Latekick Live.

828
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 1: It airs right here on the YouTube channel.

829
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,360
Speaker 2: There is a replay of that in podcast form the

830
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 2: following morning. But we also do two podcast onlies twice

831
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 2: a week, that's on Tuesday morning and Thursday morning, and

832
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 2: their mail bag, and so I count on you to

833
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 2: submit questions and you do a great job. But I

834
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,399
Speaker 2: just wanted to remind those of you who are new here.

835
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,399
Speaker 2: You can email me Josh paid seven zero six at

836
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 2: gmail dot com.

837
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:29,280
Speaker 1: You can hit me on Twitter.

838
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 2: I leave my dms open for everyone at Latekickjosh. Or

839
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 2: you can look if you're watching on YouTube right now,

840
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 2: you can look right below this video and there is

841
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,240
Speaker 2: a penned comment and you can reply to that comment.

842
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 2: Or the most preferable way if you are listening on

843
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 2: Apple devices is to go in the podcast. Give us

844
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 2: a five star review because we want a thousand of

845
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 2: them minimum, and then write a written review and put

846
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,359
Speaker 2: your question in the written review. Either way, I'll find it,

847
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 2: and you guys have done a great job there, so

848
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 2: we're going to be jam packed again Thursday night. We

849
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 2: don't spend a dime marketing this show because you guys

850
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 2: have done such a great job of being our marketing department.

851
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 2: If the show sucks, you're not going to tell anyone

852
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 2: about it, and we'll be out a job soon. If

853
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 2: it's good, then we don't have to pay to tell

854
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 2: anyone about it because you'll do it for us and

855
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 2: to my knowledge and as far as I can tell

856
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 2: looking at our analytics, you guys have done a great

857
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 2: job of sharing our stuff and telling people about it.

858
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 2: So thank you from everyone here. I'm the one you hear,

859
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 2: but everyone here thank you so much for that. For

860
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 2: director Colin, for Jordan on the podcast side, I'm Josh Peate.

861
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 2: We'll see you back here again Thursday night, same time.

862
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 2: Until then, have a great rest of your week and

863
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 2: God bless