WEBVTT - Biden Plans to Warn Putin in Talks

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. So Russian President Vladimir Putin

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<v Speaker 1>will bring a long laundry list of issues to talk

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<v Speaker 1>about at his first summit with the US leader. We're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about President Joe Biden that is happening in Geneva tomorrow,

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<v Speaker 1>even as the Kremlin says there is a little chance

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<v Speaker 1>for a breakthrough in relations. So we are expecting it, though,

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<v Speaker 1>tim to be a long meeting. Yeah to the tune

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<v Speaker 1>of four to five hours long. It is long, especially

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<v Speaker 1>at the tail end of the European trips such as this. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>joining now is Jordan Fabian White House correspondent at Bloomberg News,

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<v Speaker 1>Jordan joins us on a phone from Washington, d C.

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<v Speaker 1>Jordan's set expectations for us going into this For the

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<v Speaker 1>United States, What is a win for Joe Biden, the

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<v Speaker 1>Biden administration in the US. Well, I think the Biden

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<v Speaker 1>administration is hoping for the President to send a tough

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<v Speaker 1>message for Vladimir Putin That might not be enough to

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<v Speaker 1>deter Putent from continuing his malign activities from you know,

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<v Speaker 1>cyber hacking to less inter parens, but it might have

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<v Speaker 1>a political benefit for Joe Biden here at home. He

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<v Speaker 1>ran on taking a tougher line against the Kremlin, contrasting

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<v Speaker 1>to Donald Trump's approach of trying to form a personal

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<v Speaker 1>relationship and getting concessions out of the Russians that clearly

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<v Speaker 1>didn't work. And so this meeting might just be entirely

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<v Speaker 1>for domestic political consumption, because it seems hard to see

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<v Speaker 1>any kind of breakthrough or or even any kind of

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<v Speaker 1>concrete agreements coming out of this meeting Tomorrow. Hey, Jordan,

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<v Speaker 1>understanding is there is no joint press conference after it,

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<v Speaker 1>So that also kind of speaks to the idea that

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<v Speaker 1>they're not expecting any big revelations or changes in this relationship.

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<v Speaker 1>That's right, And each leader is going to do their

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<v Speaker 1>own step for press conference. And what White House specials

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<v Speaker 1>have told us is that they wanted to minimize the

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<v Speaker 1>chances of some kind of surprise that Vladimir Putin somehow

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<v Speaker 1>pulls cut some kind of stunt, or find some way

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<v Speaker 1>to step on President Biden's message. How do you read

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<v Speaker 1>into the length of this meeting four to five hours.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, in some cases it, you know, made some

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<v Speaker 1>reporters here harken back to when Putin met Chancellor mercle

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<v Speaker 1>and she brought her his dog, knowing that she was

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<v Speaker 1>afraid of dogs. That's right. I mean there's a high problem,

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<v Speaker 1>high possibility of some kind of stunt here. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>Putin is a former catered key, should be operative, is

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<v Speaker 1>known to kind of play mind games with this counterparts.

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<v Speaker 1>And I also note that this is a four to

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<v Speaker 1>five hour meeting with out any food. Apparently there's not

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be any meals on the agenda, so possibility. Second,

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<v Speaker 1>by the end of that, I'm just gonna say, if

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<v Speaker 1>I'm president, I'm gonna put in my rider that I wanted,

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<v Speaker 1>at least if I have a four to five hour meeting.

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<v Speaker 1>So okay, So is it just a case of let's

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<v Speaker 1>hope we walk away and things aren't worse than what

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<v Speaker 1>they've been. What? What's the goal? What? You know? And

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<v Speaker 1>I think about our Bloomberg audience who are making investments

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<v Speaker 1>watching geopolitical discussions, intensions or lack thereof. I mean, what

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<v Speaker 1>is it that an investment global investment audience maybe should

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<v Speaker 1>be listening out for. Is it potentially reviving the Iran

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear deal? What is it? Jordan's I think it's a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of things. I mean, One, if I'm an investment perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the US and the buy administration in particular,

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<v Speaker 1>wants some more predictability in the US Russia relationship. So

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they want more open lines of communication. They want,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, fewer dust stops, and they're gonna lay out

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<v Speaker 1>where the President by is gonna lay out some areas

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<v Speaker 1>where he says it's going to be a red line

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<v Speaker 1>where the US might respond. And then also they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about ways they can work together. You name

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<v Speaker 1>the I Ran a nuclear agreement is one. Officials have

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<v Speaker 1>said that they're going to start talking about renewing this

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear arms treaty called news Start, which is due to

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<v Speaker 1>expire in So they're gonna try to find some areas

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<v Speaker 1>for agreement, but those are obviously overshadowed by these big,

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<v Speaker 1>huge areas where they're just vast disagreements. And what about

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to human rights and specifically dissent within

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<v Speaker 1>the country of Russia and I speak, you know with

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<v Speaker 1>the background of Alexei Navalni. He's in prison there, that's right.

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<v Speaker 1>You know what best officials have told us that they

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<v Speaker 1>view that as an issue that's on the table. So

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<v Speaker 1>Biden has said repeatedly that he's gonna raise those kind

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<v Speaker 1>of issues directly with Bladimir Putin. Uh. You know that's

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<v Speaker 1>something that you know, Donald Trump said that he didn't

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<v Speaker 1>directly raise a Putin. He was sort of putting those

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<v Speaker 1>issues to the side in an effort to have some

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<v Speaker 1>kind of grand bargain with Putain. Biden is thinking the

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<v Speaker 1>opposite approach, confronting him over these issues. But again, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>multiple presidents of try this approach. Your Barack Obama's works

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<v Speaker 1>of you Bush, Bill Clinton and your lander recruiting has

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<v Speaker 1>never changed his behavior. Uh, in the way that the

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<v Speaker 1>US and the West would like so it's hard to

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<v Speaker 1>see what would come of it, even though Biden is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be delivering this message tomorrow. What's the China

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<v Speaker 1>role in all of this? Well, it's interesting. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think Russia has always had a bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>contentious relationship with China, but I do think they're also

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<v Speaker 1>wary of the US. Is their effort to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>rally NATO and it's a good front China. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I think they would they Russia is a place, Russia

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<v Speaker 1>is a government that wants to kind of disrupt the West,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, maybe they view China as a useful

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<v Speaker 1>foil in that regard. So you know, Is made some

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<v Speaker 1>comments leading up for this meeting that he views this

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<v Speaker 1>US that effort to try to get topper on China warily,

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<v Speaker 1>and so I mean that could be something that he

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<v Speaker 1>could raise the Biden. Of course, you have four or

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<v Speaker 1>five hours is a lot of time. They could cover

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of ground. Hey, twenty seconds left here is

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<v Speaker 1>putting in touch with the former president Donald Trump. Do

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<v Speaker 1>we know anything? Yeah, we haven't heard that at all,

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<v Speaker 1>but I mean, and nothing with Donald Trump with surprises though,

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<v Speaker 1>but possibly all right, Well, listen, great preview of the

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<v Speaker 1>upcoming meeting. Really appreciate it. Jordan Fabian, Bloomberg News. White

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<v Speaker 1>has correspondent on the phone from Washington, d C. What

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not expecting a soccer ball to be gifted this

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<v Speaker 1>time around, like we saw in Helsinki, Carrol, I wonder

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<v Speaker 1>if he'll have like a thermos of coffee, Joe Biden,

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<v Speaker 1>just in case, at least a bathroom break ours. This

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<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick

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<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So Tim, nice to

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<v Speaker 1>know things can change. We got some evidence of that today.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned earlier the EU in the US agreeing to

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<v Speaker 1>a five year trade truths involving the big aircraft manufacturers

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<v Speaker 1>of the wealth. We're talking Bowing and Airbus, Brooks otherland

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<v Speaker 1>Is deals in industrial columnists for Bloomberg Opinion. She joins

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<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from New York City. Brook It's

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<v Speaker 1>great to have you back on the show. Take us

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<v Speaker 1>into the details here and and how big of a

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<v Speaker 1>winness is not just for Boeing but for Airbus as well.

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<v Speaker 1>It's really a win for both companies. I mean this

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<v Speaker 1>has been going on for quite some time. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>nearly twenty years at this point, and you know, it

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<v Speaker 1>really put sort of kidding to the point where the

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<v Speaker 1>fight was not helping anybody. UM. And you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>the EU had made the same argument that the US

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<v Speaker 1>had made against Airbus, against Boeing. UM. You know, both

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<v Speaker 1>companies relied on some sort of state support to get

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<v Speaker 1>these uh some of their planes developed. I mean, these

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<v Speaker 1>are very expensive programs, they're very complicated, they take a

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<v Speaker 1>very long time, UM, and so you know, it wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>really helping anybody to keep pointing fingers when when you

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<v Speaker 1>were doing some of the same things yourself essentially UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And then especially you know, as you get into the pandemic,

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<v Speaker 1>this stat really started to look like a pointless relic.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you had government spending over backwards to really

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<v Speaker 1>support both the airline and the aerospace manufacturing industry through

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. And so you know, I just think that

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<v Speaker 1>it's a good positive step forward for all involved. So, Broke,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to kind of do a Blueberg cricket take

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<v Speaker 1>with you. So the problem was there was this disagreement

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<v Speaker 1>and this spat that went on, as you said, for

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<v Speaker 1>twenty years, and it really was cumbersome in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>the global aircraft market. I guess you could say, so,

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<v Speaker 1>what first of all, why was it put in place

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<v Speaker 1>to begin with? Well, it's sort of evolved in different

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<v Speaker 1>um phases, I suppose over the course of the twenty years.

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<v Speaker 1>So sort of at the heart of the US complaint

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<v Speaker 1>had to do with the Airbus A three fifty and

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<v Speaker 1>the now shuttered program for the AH three A d UM.

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<v Speaker 1>The US accused the EU of essentially giving Airbus significant

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<v Speaker 1>subsidies that allowed it to develop a their crash and

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<v Speaker 1>really sort of break Boeing lock on the market. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>So there was some thinking that the US just couldn't

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<v Speaker 1>let this go because it just couldn't believe that it

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<v Speaker 1>was no longer the only planemaker in the game. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>The you of course countered that the US has done

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<v Speaker 1>it's part to support Boeing over the years. Uh, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know that they didn't really feel like the US

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<v Speaker 1>had a ground to stand on here, and and it

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<v Speaker 1>just sort of became very political and very drawn out. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, when that is the nature of these things,

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<v Speaker 1>they take a very long time to solve. But um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, in the end, I think probably the lawyers

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<v Speaker 1>benefited the most from they always do. Um Brook China.

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<v Speaker 1>Where does China come into this, because Airbus and Boeing

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<v Speaker 1>have it do apperly when it comes to airplanes like this,

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<v Speaker 1>at least for right now. I don't never forget. A

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<v Speaker 1>few years ago, I was in Shanghai and I was

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<v Speaker 1>driving to the airport in a taxi and I passed

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<v Speaker 1>what looked like an airplane manufacturing facility similar to what

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<v Speaker 1>you see if you fly into Seattle and you you know,

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<v Speaker 1>drive into the city and you passed what Bowing is doing,

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<v Speaker 1>and I realized this was for for COMAC, the Commercial

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<v Speaker 1>Aircraft Corporation of China, essentially China's version of Bowing an airbus.

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<v Speaker 1>How does this play into the agreement that was struck?

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<v Speaker 1>So China is uh. There has been very clear that

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<v Speaker 1>Komak is the priority, that they would like to have

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<v Speaker 1>a commercial aerospace competitor to Boeing an airbus. They are

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<v Speaker 1>not there yet. Um there, there's not really a plane

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<v Speaker 1>that can rival um you know the seven thirty seven

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<v Speaker 1>Max or you know the E three twenty. Those are

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<v Speaker 1>really the marquee jets for Boeing and Airbus, and China

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<v Speaker 1>can't do that yet. But they are clearly making this priority.

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<v Speaker 1>They are investing a lot um. They clearly enjoyed being

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<v Speaker 1>able to be the first ones to ground the Bowing

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<v Speaker 1>seven thirty seven Max. Because you know, one of the

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<v Speaker 1>big questions about Comac is whether it will be a

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<v Speaker 1>space is what Boeing and Airbus can offer UM, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know whether China has the reputation for safety and

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<v Speaker 1>quality control necessary to you know, sell airplanes to the West,

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<v Speaker 1>and so for them to stake that stand to be

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<v Speaker 1>the first one to do so, I think was sort

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<v Speaker 1>of a pivotal moment in their aerospace journey, if you will, UM.

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<v Speaker 1>But like I said, they don't have a plane just yet.

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<v Speaker 1>I think what you're worried about was Bowing an airbus.

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<v Speaker 1>Is not necessarily whether Komak will start flying or will

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<v Speaker 1>be sold to to Delta UM. But you know whether

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese airlines will predominantly choose Comac airplanes. And if

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the future growth trajectory for planes, a

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<v Speaker 1>significant chunk of that future demand is coming from China,

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<v Speaker 1>UH and from other parts of Southeast Asia. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Comac doesn't really need to win over Europe in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>they need to be able to win over these these

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese airlines. Um. And you know, especially if those airlines

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<v Speaker 1>fly domestically, that that is an easy or hurdle to

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<v Speaker 1>clear pay. Does it make sense that we're seeing a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of a pop in bowing today it's up

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<v Speaker 1>about one percent airbus a d r s or just

0:11:51.800 --> 0:11:55.600
<v Speaker 1>up about half a percent. But does it give some clarity,

0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:58.240
<v Speaker 1>some ease if you know you're an investor in Boeing

0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:01.520
<v Speaker 1>shares to some extent. I think it's helpful. I mean

0:12:01.600 --> 0:12:05.120
<v Speaker 1>we've been trending in this direction for a while now.

0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:07.679
<v Speaker 1>So in March, you know, the two sides agreed to

0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:10.520
<v Speaker 1>suspend the terrorists that were put in place as a

0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:14.520
<v Speaker 1>result of this UH dispute over aircraft subsidies. Um. While

0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:16.520
<v Speaker 1>they've worked to an agreement, and so it's definitely a

0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:18.800
<v Speaker 1>positive to get this cleared. I mean, the last thing

0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:21.920
<v Speaker 1>Boeing needs right now is another reason not to buy

0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:26.160
<v Speaker 1>airplanes from it. So, um, you know, it's it's certainly helpful.

0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:30.000
<v Speaker 1>What about when it comes to resolving lingering trade wars

0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:32.360
<v Speaker 1>that the United States has with many different areas of

0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:34.920
<v Speaker 1>the world, and we only about thirty seconds broke sure,

0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:37.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean I think it's definitely a positive step, and

0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:38.640
<v Speaker 1>I think just the mere fact that we came to

0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:40.520
<v Speaker 1>some sort of an agreement, and it is certainly a

0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.440
<v Speaker 1>change from the Trump administration, where you know, they actually

0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:46.880
<v Speaker 1>were raising the stakes and it's going an airbus dispute,

0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:48.640
<v Speaker 1>and so to be sort of I guess taking a

0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:51.439
<v Speaker 1>setbacks from the battle line and and focusing on cooperation

0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:54.040
<v Speaker 1>and coming to agreements, I think only has to be

0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:56.520
<v Speaker 1>interpreted as a positive sign. Now the steel and the

0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:59.840
<v Speaker 1>womenum terrorists issues a little bit stickier, but we'll see.

0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:04.240
<v Speaker 1>So why don't she's safe though, I hope for now. Okay,

0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:06.840
<v Speaker 1>just getting priorities straight here, at least mine, I've been

0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:08.480
<v Speaker 1>worried about stealing a luminium. I don't know where your

0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:11.760
<v Speaker 1>head is, Tim Stanovic, good stuff, brook Thank you so much,

0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:14.360
<v Speaker 1>Brooks Sutherland. She is deal with an industrial's columnist at

0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:16.439
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Opinion on the phone in New York City. Check

0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:19.320
<v Speaker 1>her out at b L s U T H on Twitter.

0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:23.640
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:28.120
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, the

0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:30.560
<v Speaker 1>cover story this week. It's also Today's Bloomberg big take

0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:33.160
<v Speaker 1>the story though, in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg business

0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:37.679
<v Speaker 1>Week magazine, Airbnb spending millions of dollars tim to make

0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.480
<v Speaker 1>nightmares go away. Joining us now is Joel Webber, editor

0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Business Week. He's here with us in the

0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:46.640
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Also, Olivia Carville, technology reporter at

0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:48.920
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News, joins us from here in our Bloomberg New

0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.040
<v Speaker 1>York City bureau. Joel, as soon as I started reading

0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:55.040
<v Speaker 1>this story early this morning, I could not put it down.

0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:59.600
<v Speaker 1>What who is on the safety team and the sort

0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:03.400
<v Speaker 1>of first responders at Airbnb, and and what do they

0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:05.640
<v Speaker 1>do when it comes to crisis management. I believe it's

0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:09.600
<v Speaker 1>called the black box. So Olivia's story uh brought many

0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:13.800
<v Speaker 1>things to light, um, one being that the real bedrock

0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:18.760
<v Speaker 1>of Airbnb's business model is trust. You check into someone

0:14:18.840 --> 0:14:25.360
<v Speaker 1>else's apartment sometimes or house, sometimes that person maybe occupying

0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:28.680
<v Speaker 1>that same space or in a different room. Um. And

0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:31.320
<v Speaker 1>the whole thing that makes the business work is is

0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:35.359
<v Speaker 1>that you have trusted in this system. And what Olivia's

0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:41.040
<v Speaker 1>reporting revealed was that oftentimes stays don't go well, and

0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:45.120
<v Speaker 1>that could be uh more run of the mill things

0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:47.920
<v Speaker 1>of like just a trash department, or it could go very,

0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:52.040
<v Speaker 1>very very bad. And there have been cases a rape

0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:56.560
<v Speaker 1>that was previously unreported that Olivia found out about, murders,

0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:01.400
<v Speaker 1>violent crimes, and when that happens. There's a safety team

0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:06.520
<v Speaker 1>that Airbnb has assembled around the world, um one hundred

0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:10.080
<v Speaker 1>agents that basically the worst of the worst situations end

0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:15.840
<v Speaker 1>up going to that group of people. And Olivia basically

0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:19.480
<v Speaker 1>was the one that has revealed that this team exists,

0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:23.120
<v Speaker 1>that they're under mental dress for all the different types

0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:25.960
<v Speaker 1>of cases that they have to deal with, and that

0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:28.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, this is the thing that for investors this

0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:32.200
<v Speaker 1>company is now publicly traded, people haven't known that this

0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:35.440
<v Speaker 1>is a dark side of this company in quite this way.

0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:38.520
<v Speaker 1>UM So, so, Olivia, how about you bring us up

0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:41.360
<v Speaker 1>to speed on on you know, how how you went

0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:44.960
<v Speaker 1>about reporting such a remarkable story. It's sure, thanks so

0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:48.960
<v Speaker 1>much for having me on. I feel like the story

0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:51.720
<v Speaker 1>really the crux of it was to understand, you know,

0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:54.760
<v Speaker 1>to get inside the safety team and to really get

0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:57.640
<v Speaker 1>to the bottom of what happens inside to a B

0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:01.400
<v Speaker 1>n B when things go wrong. Initially, when I started

0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:04.760
<v Speaker 1>reporting this piece, it was about trying to find insiders

0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:06.560
<v Speaker 1>at the company who would be willing to talk to

0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:09.240
<v Speaker 1>me about the stress of the job and just the

0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:13.440
<v Speaker 1>process of when something happens inside a listing, like a

0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:16.560
<v Speaker 1>violent crime, and a call comes through to the Airbnb

0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:20.200
<v Speaker 1>customer service rep, what actually happens, how does the company

0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:23.120
<v Speaker 1>handle it, who does it get transferred through to, and

0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:26.920
<v Speaker 1>what do they do about handling? You know, public image,

0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:31.800
<v Speaker 1>reputational risk, brand risk. Given that Airbnb's entire business model

0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:36.040
<v Speaker 1>really risks on that idea of trust between strangers to them,

0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:43.280
<v Speaker 1>public image is just so crucially important too gross and revenue. So, Olivia,

0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:46.000
<v Speaker 1>how does it work when things go wrong? And often

0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:50.840
<v Speaker 1>issuell mentioned horribly wrong? Right, Well, it's it's a call

0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:55.360
<v Speaker 1>is to come through to Airbnb related to anything concerning safety.

0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:59.080
<v Speaker 1>So when I say that, I mean anything involving a child,

0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:06.679
<v Speaker 1>ass of, human trafficking, drug trafficking, kidnappings, hostage scenarios, sexual assaults,

0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:10.879
<v Speaker 1>rape cases, murder, anything that enters that kind of like

0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:16.359
<v Speaker 1>significance of a real safety crisis. It will immediately be

0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:19.920
<v Speaker 1>transferred through to an internal safety team of agents. And

0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:23.119
<v Speaker 1>as Joel mentioned, the BnB has about a hundred of

0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:26.840
<v Speaker 1>these agents based all around the world who are trained

0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:31.959
<v Speaker 1>in trauma. You know, they specify and specialize in how

0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:34.720
<v Speaker 1>to handle cases of trauma. Be a taught how to

0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:38.840
<v Speaker 1>deal with suicidal ideation. Be are taught to know how

0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:41.880
<v Speaker 1>to how to help talk with a sexual assault survivor

0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:44.040
<v Speaker 1>and the best way to support her in that moment.

0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:49.000
<v Speaker 1>And UM, for these safety agents, it's all about doing

0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:52.480
<v Speaker 1>what they can to protect the individual in crisis, and

0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:55.080
<v Speaker 1>also they do have a dual role to protect the

0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:58.760
<v Speaker 1>company's public image. At the same time, Joel referred to

0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:04.399
<v Speaker 1>the arrest that these safety agents experience. What is the

0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:06.320
<v Speaker 1>toll it takes on them and how do they deal

0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:09.200
<v Speaker 1>with it. A lot of the safety agents I talked

0:18:09.240 --> 0:18:14.200
<v Speaker 1>to UM expressed vicarious trauma. They say that they suffer

0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:17.560
<v Speaker 1>from PTSD from the job. I mean they willingly walk

0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:20.240
<v Speaker 1>into it. They want to do this kind of trauma work,

0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:22.600
<v Speaker 1>and I think it takes a certain person who's attracted

0:18:22.680 --> 0:18:25.800
<v Speaker 1>to this particular role. A lot of them comes from

0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:30.000
<v Speaker 1>backgrounds of emergency services work or even from the military.

0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:32.480
<v Speaker 1>They've you know, as I see, had gone through a

0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:35.760
<v Speaker 1>lot of trauma based care training. They have counselors on

0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:39.160
<v Speaker 1>site to help this team. They have specialized call down

0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:42.520
<v Speaker 1>rooms with dimmed lighting to help them answer those really

0:18:42.600 --> 0:18:46.119
<v Speaker 1>tough calls. And for these agents, you know, when you

0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:51.240
<v Speaker 1>handle a case of an individual who has been assaulted, raped,

0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:54.040
<v Speaker 1>who has lost a loved one, maybe lost a child

0:18:54.240 --> 0:18:57.160
<v Speaker 1>in a listing, you form a bond with the individual

0:18:57.320 --> 0:18:59.840
<v Speaker 1>over the phone, and a lot of these safety agents

0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:03.000
<v Speaker 1>walked about cases where they're still in touch with those

0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:06.560
<v Speaker 1>families years after the crime has happened. You know, it

0:19:06.640 --> 0:19:10.040
<v Speaker 1>stays with them. One safety agent I talked to handled

0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:12.920
<v Speaker 1>a case of a missing person who just disappeared from

0:19:12.920 --> 0:19:16.440
<v Speaker 1>a listing, and three years after that occurred, he was

0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:19.480
<v Speaker 1>still googling that individual's name to see if there was,

0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:23.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, if they were either found. So you can

0:19:23.680 --> 0:19:26.520
<v Speaker 1>you can feel when you're talking to these individuals just

0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:30.000
<v Speaker 1>a heavy personal toll it has on them, and you

0:19:30.040 --> 0:19:32.680
<v Speaker 1>know how much they they care for the people that

0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:35.320
<v Speaker 1>they're trying to help, but also how they were so

0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:39.560
<v Speaker 1>torn when it came to their role in trying to

0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:42.239
<v Speaker 1>keep these cases quiet or trying to do what they

0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:44.920
<v Speaker 1>could to protect the company's public image at the same time.

0:19:45.359 --> 0:19:48.639
<v Speaker 1>They really had to wrestle with that difficulty. And you know,

0:19:48.760 --> 0:19:52.920
<v Speaker 1>the opening of The story is rooted in New York

0:19:53.040 --> 0:20:00.200
<v Speaker 1>City in near Times Square on New Year's Eve, and

0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:04.360
<v Speaker 1>there's a case that Olivia found in her reporting um

0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:09.120
<v Speaker 1>that the company Airbnb, following this um uh, this rape,

0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:14.040
<v Speaker 1>the survivor was paid seven million dollars um, which was

0:20:14.400 --> 0:20:17.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, a huge number when you think about it, right,

0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:20.480
<v Speaker 1>like a clearly very bad thing, but a huge number. Olivia.

0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:24.520
<v Speaker 1>There's also a policy element to this because that case

0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:29.159
<v Speaker 1>basically happened at almost the worst possible time for Airbnb,

0:20:29.320 --> 0:20:31.399
<v Speaker 1>because of its battle with New York City. Can you

0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:34.960
<v Speaker 1>talk about why New York has always been so important

0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:38.800
<v Speaker 1>for Airbnb and why that case was so significant and

0:20:38.880 --> 0:20:40.439
<v Speaker 1>forgive me, Olivia, you have to be quick. Just got

0:20:40.480 --> 0:20:43.520
<v Speaker 1>about twenty seconds here, sure, I mean New York is

0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:47.480
<v Speaker 1>one of airbnba's biggest market. The regulatory recipe was huge

0:20:47.600 --> 0:20:49.760
<v Speaker 1>because it could lead to a Domino feat for the

0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:52.760
<v Speaker 1>company needed to do what it could could to try

0:20:52.840 --> 0:20:55.320
<v Speaker 1>and keep this case. Um, you know, to try and

0:20:55.400 --> 0:20:57.119
<v Speaker 1>do what they could to handle this case is as

0:20:57.160 --> 0:21:00.800
<v Speaker 1>well as they possibly could, knowing the potential regulatory rest

0:21:00.840 --> 0:21:04.760
<v Speaker 1>of the incredible story. It's out on Twitter, it's at

0:21:04.760 --> 0:21:07.440
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com and it's in the magazine the upcoming issue.

0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:10.320
<v Speaker 1>Olivia Carvil who wrote it. Joe Webber, the editor of

0:21:10.359 --> 0:21:18.040
<v Speaker 1>the magazine. Thank you. This is Bloomberg Business Week with

0:21:18.240 --> 0:21:22.880
<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovik on Bloomberg Radio.

0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:26.920
<v Speaker 1>So TikTok everyone, the policy setting arm of the US

0:21:26.960 --> 0:21:29.040
<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve. We're talking about the FMC. They're kicking off

0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:33.119
<v Speaker 1>their two day meeting today. We are expected some changes.

0:21:33.440 --> 0:21:38.879
<v Speaker 1>We are I'm we don't ye projections, but you know

0:21:38.960 --> 0:21:41.600
<v Speaker 1>we're still waiting on headlines for tomorrow exactly. So let's

0:21:41.600 --> 0:21:44.920
<v Speaker 1>see what Steven Skanky is expecting, his chief economic advisor

0:21:44.960 --> 0:21:46.840
<v Speaker 1>at kill Point, former U S Treasury and White House

0:21:46.920 --> 0:21:50.480
<v Speaker 1>National Security Council staff member based in Washington, D C.

0:21:50.760 --> 0:21:52.640
<v Speaker 1>And that's exactly where we find him on this Tuesday.

0:21:52.680 --> 0:21:55.760
<v Speaker 1>How are you. I'm great. Thanks, it's always going to

0:21:55.840 --> 0:21:58.080
<v Speaker 1>be back to you. Well, it's great to have you here, Steve.

0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:01.920
<v Speaker 1>So what are you expecting? We are, at least to

0:22:02.000 --> 0:22:05.360
<v Speaker 1>our economics team and others are forecasting that that dot

0:22:05.440 --> 0:22:08.200
<v Speaker 1>plot we're going to see some changes and that we'll

0:22:08.240 --> 0:22:13.080
<v Speaker 1>get some expectations of interest rate changes in versus after

0:22:15.520 --> 0:22:19.159
<v Speaker 1>I think that's a fair assessment. The the indicators are

0:22:19.240 --> 0:22:24.920
<v Speaker 1>positive generally, which gives that confidence. But at the same time,

0:22:25.119 --> 0:22:28.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, it is an excellent position to be able

0:22:28.200 --> 0:22:31.560
<v Speaker 1>to do absolutely nothing and feel good about it. At

0:22:31.640 --> 0:22:36.480
<v Speaker 1>this meeting, the the good employment number that the good

0:22:36.600 --> 0:22:41.280
<v Speaker 1>jobs numbers UH for for May and April were positive

0:22:41.440 --> 0:22:47.560
<v Speaker 1>but well below expectations. UH. The inflation number headline is

0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:51.399
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of a surprise, but from April to

0:22:51.560 --> 0:22:54.680
<v Speaker 1>May is down a little bit. And what it was

0:22:54.880 --> 0:22:58.840
<v Speaker 1>from March to April, and when you when you look

0:22:58.880 --> 0:23:01.680
<v Speaker 1>at where the impact is and what are the subcategories

0:23:01.720 --> 0:23:06.160
<v Speaker 1>that that had the biggest change other than energy, it's

0:23:06.240 --> 0:23:13.560
<v Speaker 1>things like used cars UH, rental car prices, whereas the

0:23:14.359 --> 0:23:16.880
<v Speaker 1>food costs for people eating at home was up point

0:23:17.000 --> 0:23:20.880
<v Speaker 1>seven percent year over year, housing up two point two

0:23:20.960 --> 0:23:23.880
<v Speaker 1>percent year over year, medical care services at one point

0:23:23.960 --> 0:23:30.640
<v Speaker 1>or five So so not something that threatens to build

0:23:30.800 --> 0:23:35.200
<v Speaker 1>inflationary expectations. And I think that's that's what the FED

0:23:35.280 --> 0:23:38.160
<v Speaker 1>sees here. So it sounds like you are somebody who's

0:23:38.160 --> 0:23:41.520
<v Speaker 1>not concerned about inflation being persistent. It sounds like you're

0:23:41.600 --> 0:23:43.680
<v Speaker 1>somebody who thinks that the data is pointing to this

0:23:43.800 --> 0:23:50.080
<v Speaker 1>being transitory. Well, at this point, the biggest impact on

0:23:50.359 --> 0:23:57.000
<v Speaker 1>pulling the index up has been in categories, say for energy, UH,

0:23:57.119 --> 0:24:00.840
<v Speaker 1>that are largely transitory. Um, you can you can go

0:24:01.000 --> 0:24:03.680
<v Speaker 1>to a number of the different categories when you when

0:24:03.680 --> 0:24:06.040
<v Speaker 1>you're looking at what the BLS put out last Thursday

0:24:06.760 --> 0:24:11.920
<v Speaker 1>and UH and really understand what it was that was

0:24:12.000 --> 0:24:17.240
<v Speaker 1>going on. And that just provides confidence as to it

0:24:17.480 --> 0:24:24.000
<v Speaker 1>not being something that's turning into a problem. Um, will

0:24:24.520 --> 0:24:29.720
<v Speaker 1>will the fled FED revised it's a summary of economic projections,

0:24:29.800 --> 0:24:32.840
<v Speaker 1>maybe to to notch it up a little bit for

0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:36.440
<v Speaker 1>the year. I doubt it, just because there's no reason

0:24:36.560 --> 0:24:38.680
<v Speaker 1>for them to do that. Yet. You don't think the

0:24:38.760 --> 0:24:41.920
<v Speaker 1>dot plots Steve, You don't think they'll change it at all. Oh,

0:24:41.960 --> 0:24:43.840
<v Speaker 1>I think they. I think they may change the dot

0:24:43.880 --> 0:24:47.879
<v Speaker 1>plot a little bit, just because that's that's the nature

0:24:47.960 --> 0:24:53.840
<v Speaker 1>of being together and trying to express some thought about

0:24:54.200 --> 0:24:57.200
<v Speaker 1>what might be happening with the data that they're receiving.

0:24:58.240 --> 0:25:02.040
<v Speaker 1>But we are still very much within that that window

0:25:03.080 --> 0:25:10.359
<v Speaker 1>of of burning off twenty COVID low base effects, and

0:25:11.040 --> 0:25:14.000
<v Speaker 1>so they don't want to seem concerned, but they certainly

0:25:14.040 --> 0:25:18.480
<v Speaker 1>want to seem aware that was brilliant still in the

0:25:18.560 --> 0:25:21.719
<v Speaker 1>window of burning off COVID low base effects. I mean,

0:25:21.840 --> 0:25:23.639
<v Speaker 1>that's the point. I mean, you just look at the

0:25:23.880 --> 0:25:26.680
<v Speaker 1>labor market, right, and it's over seven million jobs in

0:25:26.720 --> 0:25:29.320
<v Speaker 1>the US that we still have to get back to

0:25:29.400 --> 0:25:32.119
<v Speaker 1>get us to the point of being at pre pandemic levels.

0:25:32.160 --> 0:25:34.480
<v Speaker 1>Look at it globally. I was looking at some numbers globally,

0:25:34.840 --> 0:25:37.560
<v Speaker 1>and it's over seventy millions, some seventy five million jobs

0:25:38.119 --> 0:25:41.080
<v Speaker 1>that are short of its pre crisis path. So that's

0:25:41.080 --> 0:25:44.520
<v Speaker 1>a big one. The labor market. Steve well and and

0:25:44.880 --> 0:25:47.200
<v Speaker 1>and Carol three and a half million fewer workers in

0:25:47.280 --> 0:25:50.920
<v Speaker 1>the labor force. People of people who just went out

0:25:51.080 --> 0:25:53.960
<v Speaker 1>for for a whole host of reasons, of course, but

0:25:54.119 --> 0:25:59.160
<v Speaker 1>many of them related to COVID. Time to retire, felt

0:25:59.240 --> 0:26:03.800
<v Speaker 1>greater exposure, not motivated by the wages that are that

0:26:03.880 --> 0:26:06.639
<v Speaker 1>are being paid. You know, when the FED looks at this,

0:26:07.080 --> 0:26:12.359
<v Speaker 1>uh um it, it wants to see wages rise. Uh

0:26:13.400 --> 0:26:16.920
<v Speaker 1>and before they call the labor market tight, they want

0:26:16.960 --> 0:26:19.560
<v Speaker 1>to see that the businesses are actually offering to pay

0:26:19.680 --> 0:26:23.320
<v Speaker 1>higher wages and still people are not coming. So wait,

0:26:23.400 --> 0:26:25.200
<v Speaker 1>let me ask you something on wages. Because Tim and

0:26:25.240 --> 0:26:27.639
<v Speaker 1>I talked about this a lot. We've seen Chipotle and others.

0:26:27.760 --> 0:26:30.399
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there are instances where wages are going up.

0:26:30.440 --> 0:26:32.080
<v Speaker 1>Why is it that we are so dismissive of it?

0:26:32.240 --> 0:26:35.320
<v Speaker 1>Is it because it's on the lower end of kind

0:26:35.320 --> 0:26:39.880
<v Speaker 1>of the wage scale. I think that's part of it. Um.

0:26:40.200 --> 0:26:43.960
<v Speaker 1>You know, when when we look at what people in

0:26:44.200 --> 0:26:53.280
<v Speaker 1>the I'll just call it broadly hospitality restaurants, UH, lodging Uh,

0:26:53.680 --> 0:26:59.400
<v Speaker 1>people who interact with the public in some way or another. Uh,

0:26:59.600 --> 0:27:03.879
<v Speaker 1>they additionally have been paid lower wages and at wibble

0:27:03.920 --> 0:27:06.880
<v Speaker 1>of the fifteen dollars an hour. And now is there's

0:27:06.920 --> 0:27:11.399
<v Speaker 1>been pressure and publicity about several of the big companies saying, well,

0:27:11.400 --> 0:27:13.399
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna pay people fifteen dollars an hour. We're just

0:27:13.440 --> 0:27:16.920
<v Speaker 1>gonna step it up and do that. Uh. These other

0:27:16.960 --> 0:27:20.240
<v Speaker 1>folks say, well, wait a minute, I'm not getting fifteen

0:27:20.280 --> 0:27:22.720
<v Speaker 1>dollars an hour, and I'm really on the front line

0:27:23.119 --> 0:27:29.560
<v Speaker 1>being exposed where this virus still tracks, and uh, I'm

0:27:29.640 --> 0:27:33.440
<v Speaker 1>just not interested. I'll do something else. I'll wait out

0:27:33.720 --> 0:27:39.680
<v Speaker 1>my unemployment benefits until they've fully run out. And and

0:27:39.840 --> 0:27:45.040
<v Speaker 1>that that can happen really without causing alarm when you

0:27:45.119 --> 0:27:48.600
<v Speaker 1>look at it from the FEDS perspective. But when you

0:27:48.840 --> 0:27:51.040
<v Speaker 1>when you sort of just read the headline numbers, of course,

0:27:51.119 --> 0:27:54.159
<v Speaker 1>that that attracts a lot of attention, and that's the

0:27:54.240 --> 0:27:56.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of thing that that will generate some interest and

0:27:56.720 --> 0:27:59.960
<v Speaker 1>maybe some adjustments to the doptments. Even just in ten seconds.

0:28:00.119 --> 0:28:02.000
<v Speaker 1>What's the piece of data that that worries you, that

0:28:02.119 --> 0:28:07.560
<v Speaker 1>says that inflation is not transitory, that we continue to

0:28:07.800 --> 0:28:15.720
<v Speaker 1>see increases in in some of the basic core area Okay,

0:28:17.480 --> 0:28:20.520
<v Speaker 1>the basic core areas. Dr Stephen Skanky, chief economic advisor

0:28:20.560 --> 0:28:22.560
<v Speaker 1>at keel Point, also former U. S. Treasury and White

0:28:22.560 --> 0:28:25.520
<v Speaker 1>House National Security Staff Council staff member, always great when

0:28:25.520 --> 0:28:33.520
<v Speaker 1>he joins us. Thanks so much, Steve. I'm a journal Yeah,

0:28:33.600 --> 0:28:38.600
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, honey, please,

0:28:38.720 --> 0:28:42.080
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the right revel. Excuse me, I want to drive,

0:28:44.840 --> 0:28:58.080
<v Speaker 1>Just drive, baby questions trying. This is the drive to

0:28:58.120 --> 0:29:03.560
<v Speaker 1>the globe that community well drying us radio. All right,

0:29:04.080 --> 0:29:06.880
<v Speaker 1>just about ten and a half minutes left in today's

0:29:06.920 --> 0:29:09.400
<v Speaker 1>trading session. We're bouncing around a little bit app here

0:29:09.520 --> 0:29:12.000
<v Speaker 1>on this Tuesday. Let's get to it with Brad McMillan,

0:29:12.080 --> 0:29:15.400
<v Speaker 1>chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network. He is on

0:29:15.480 --> 0:29:18.680
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Waltham, Massachusetts, approximately two hundred thirty two

0:29:18.720 --> 0:29:22.280
<v Speaker 1>point five billion dollars in assets under management. Brad, good

0:29:22.360 --> 0:29:24.800
<v Speaker 1>to have you back with us. Uh, what's on your

0:29:24.880 --> 0:29:30.720
<v Speaker 1>radar today? Well, just watching the recovery continue. There's a

0:29:30.760 --> 0:29:33.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of headlines, there's a lot of scary things, and

0:29:34.080 --> 0:29:36.280
<v Speaker 1>right now I think the FED is going to be

0:29:36.360 --> 0:29:39.240
<v Speaker 1>the next data point to drop. What are you expecting

0:29:39.280 --> 0:29:41.040
<v Speaker 1>with that data point and what are you watching for tomorrow?

0:29:42.360 --> 0:29:44.280
<v Speaker 1>I think they're gonna do nothing. And I think that

0:29:44.440 --> 0:29:48.000
<v Speaker 1>for a couple of reasons. First of all, inflation is

0:29:48.080 --> 0:29:50.480
<v Speaker 1>not going to be a problem. Yeah, we got headlines,

0:29:50.680 --> 0:29:54.480
<v Speaker 1>but they'll pass. Employment is still a problem, and they've

0:29:54.520 --> 0:29:57.680
<v Speaker 1>said that's what they're focused on. So hey, they have

0:29:57.760 --> 0:30:01.320
<v Speaker 1>no reason to be they have no reason to the

0:30:01.400 --> 0:30:04.240
<v Speaker 1>whole type, Well, that's what we just talked about. There's

0:30:04.280 --> 0:30:07.000
<v Speaker 1>still more than seven million Americans out of work. If

0:30:07.040 --> 0:30:09.960
<v Speaker 1>you take the global snapshot, there are more than seventy

0:30:10.000 --> 0:30:13.120
<v Speaker 1>million Americans, I mean seventy million folks around the world

0:30:13.160 --> 0:30:16.080
<v Speaker 1>that are out of work. And so that is to

0:30:16.280 --> 0:30:19.160
<v Speaker 1>some extent an insurance policy that when it comes to

0:30:19.880 --> 0:30:23.160
<v Speaker 1>monetary policy and policy overall, it's going to be stimulative

0:30:23.200 --> 0:30:26.040
<v Speaker 1>and easy until we see those numbers correct or at

0:30:26.080 --> 0:30:30.680
<v Speaker 1>least get closer. I think that's exactly right, Carol. And

0:30:31.360 --> 0:30:33.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think one of the things out there

0:30:33.720 --> 0:30:37.200
<v Speaker 1>is there's this huge problem is to disconnect with the

0:30:37.480 --> 0:30:40.880
<v Speaker 1>with the labor market. There's a labor shortage. What's interesting

0:30:41.000 --> 0:30:42.720
<v Speaker 1>is if you go when you look at the number

0:30:42.800 --> 0:30:45.400
<v Speaker 1>of people who are out of the labor force but

0:30:45.560 --> 0:30:48.720
<v Speaker 1>who want to get a job, that pretty much fills

0:30:48.800 --> 0:30:51.280
<v Speaker 1>that labor gap. So we know what's going to happen,

0:30:51.360 --> 0:30:53.120
<v Speaker 1>but we also know it's going to take some time.

0:30:53.720 --> 0:30:55.680
<v Speaker 1>And that's what we That's what the bet is watching

0:30:55.800 --> 0:30:58.080
<v Speaker 1>how long is it going to take? Brad? What what

0:30:58.240 --> 0:31:01.280
<v Speaker 1>changes your mind? You say that you know inflation is

0:31:01.360 --> 0:31:03.960
<v Speaker 1>not going to be a problem. Uh, employment is still

0:31:04.000 --> 0:31:06.040
<v Speaker 1>a problem. What changes your mind and says that inflation

0:31:06.280 --> 0:31:09.600
<v Speaker 1>is a problem. What's that data point? I think it's

0:31:09.640 --> 0:31:12.240
<v Speaker 1>nothing but time. I mean, right now, if you look

0:31:12.320 --> 0:31:15.200
<v Speaker 1>at the two year numbers as opposed to the one

0:31:15.280 --> 0:31:18.360
<v Speaker 1>year numbers, we're still within the range. The one year

0:31:18.480 --> 0:31:21.120
<v Speaker 1>numbers are the bounce back up and we're forgetting about

0:31:21.160 --> 0:31:23.680
<v Speaker 1>to drop down during the early part of the pandemic.

0:31:24.280 --> 0:31:26.520
<v Speaker 1>Now if that stays up once the year on year

0:31:26.560 --> 0:31:30.200
<v Speaker 1>comparison start to normalize, that says we've got a bigger problem.

0:31:30.720 --> 0:31:33.200
<v Speaker 1>But right now it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

0:31:33.360 --> 0:31:36.600
<v Speaker 1>Some of the higher frequency stuff, lumber, for example, is

0:31:36.600 --> 0:31:38.720
<v Speaker 1>already starting to roll over, and we're going to see

0:31:38.760 --> 0:31:41.480
<v Speaker 1>that with most of the other stuff as well. Right lumber, copper,

0:31:41.520 --> 0:31:43.920
<v Speaker 1>we've seen that as well. Uh. And and those are

0:31:43.960 --> 0:31:47.280
<v Speaker 1>the kind of metrics, uh, that you really follow in

0:31:47.400 --> 0:31:50.080
<v Speaker 1>terms of inflationary pressures because they can often be If

0:31:50.160 --> 0:31:51.959
<v Speaker 1>they tend to stick, that's when you start to get

0:31:51.960 --> 0:31:55.560
<v Speaker 1>a little bit nervous. So in this environment, then what

0:31:55.880 --> 0:31:58.840
<v Speaker 1>do you advise investors to do? I mean, it's hard

0:31:58.920 --> 0:32:02.080
<v Speaker 1>to kind of beat the US equity market. But having

0:32:02.280 --> 0:32:06.200
<v Speaker 1>said that, we are seeing E t F flows increasingly.

0:32:06.320 --> 0:32:08.640
<v Speaker 1>We've seen money flowing into Europe and e t s

0:32:08.880 --> 0:32:12.520
<v Speaker 1>versus U S e t s because the US prices

0:32:12.560 --> 0:32:16.840
<v Speaker 1>and valuations have gotten a little bit lofty. US valuations,

0:32:16.880 --> 0:32:18.960
<v Speaker 1>if you look at it, are actually down a little

0:32:18.960 --> 0:32:22.120
<v Speaker 1>bit on a forward earning spaces. Now they're still not cheap,

0:32:22.200 --> 0:32:25.240
<v Speaker 1>don't get me wrong, but they pretty much held around

0:32:25.280 --> 0:32:28.040
<v Speaker 1>twenty two and now they're about twenty one or thereabouts,

0:32:28.040 --> 0:32:31.680
<v Speaker 1>because earnings are growing faster than expected and there's probably

0:32:31.840 --> 0:32:35.480
<v Speaker 1>still some upside there. So I like emerging markets. I

0:32:35.560 --> 0:32:37.600
<v Speaker 1>think they're going to catch up with US at some point.

0:32:37.960 --> 0:32:45.920
<v Speaker 1>I like US markets developed, foreign markets not so much. UM, yes, specifically,

0:32:46.080 --> 0:32:47.840
<v Speaker 1>what are you what are you referring to? I mean,

0:32:47.920 --> 0:32:51.200
<v Speaker 1>can you can you be more specific with those markets

0:32:51.280 --> 0:32:55.240
<v Speaker 1>that you're that you're excited about? I like the US,

0:32:55.400 --> 0:32:59.040
<v Speaker 1>I like um India. India has had a terrible experience

0:32:59.080 --> 0:33:02.640
<v Speaker 1>with the pandemic, but they just like the United States,

0:33:02.720 --> 0:33:06.040
<v Speaker 1>their democracy, they will get through this. They'll have some resilience.

0:33:06.360 --> 0:33:09.239
<v Speaker 1>So I think there's some opportunities there. I think if

0:33:09.280 --> 0:33:11.840
<v Speaker 1>you look at some of the Southeast Asian economies, there

0:33:11.880 --> 0:33:15.640
<v Speaker 1>are chances. You know, they are still going through the pandemic,

0:33:15.760 --> 0:33:18.880
<v Speaker 1>but again, they supply the United States, so they're going

0:33:18.960 --> 0:33:21.840
<v Speaker 1>to have a demand driven push once they get through

0:33:22.000 --> 0:33:25.760
<v Speaker 1>the Once they get through the pandemic. Again, that's not

0:33:25.840 --> 0:33:29.040
<v Speaker 1>going to happen immediately, but anybody who's in a position

0:33:29.120 --> 0:33:32.120
<v Speaker 1>to benefit from the U s reopening once they get

0:33:32.160 --> 0:33:34.200
<v Speaker 1>their own house in order, is going to do very well.

0:33:34.360 --> 0:33:36.920
<v Speaker 1>Hey what about consumer discretionary My understanding is that is

0:33:36.920 --> 0:33:40.680
<v Speaker 1>an area that you like, specifically some confidence and disposable

0:33:40.720 --> 0:33:43.200
<v Speaker 1>income that's out there. Having said that, the retail sales

0:33:43.320 --> 0:33:46.280
<v Speaker 1>numbers today, we did see a shift out of some

0:33:46.400 --> 0:33:48.720
<v Speaker 1>of the things that people have been buying, like things

0:33:48.800 --> 0:33:51.760
<v Speaker 1>for their home and the auto sector. So where within

0:33:51.840 --> 0:33:56.400
<v Speaker 1>consumer discretionary brad do you find opportunity. I think you're

0:33:56.440 --> 0:33:58.560
<v Speaker 1>gonna find a lot of people as they move back

0:33:58.600 --> 0:34:00.280
<v Speaker 1>into the workforce. And I mentioned to all of the

0:34:00.360 --> 0:34:02.280
<v Speaker 1>people were out of the workforce who are coming back,

0:34:02.640 --> 0:34:05.240
<v Speaker 1>We're going to be going for small luxuries, you know.

0:34:05.280 --> 0:34:08.920
<v Speaker 1>I think companies the cater to you know, the average person,

0:34:09.320 --> 0:34:11.600
<v Speaker 1>we're going to do very well. I think companies that

0:34:12.360 --> 0:34:15.160
<v Speaker 1>cater to the average shopper who's going to be coming back,

0:34:15.200 --> 0:34:18.120
<v Speaker 1>who's going to have some discretionary income, we're going to

0:34:18.239 --> 0:34:21.400
<v Speaker 1>do very well. I think main Street America retail is

0:34:21.440 --> 0:34:24.760
<v Speaker 1>going to do very well. Main street retail. Because it's interesting.

0:34:24.880 --> 0:34:28.239
<v Speaker 1>Someone was telling me anecdotally being at a mall in

0:34:28.440 --> 0:34:32.359
<v Speaker 1>a northern New Jersey suburb and said the lines were

0:34:32.520 --> 0:34:36.320
<v Speaker 1>just out of the boutiques like the Chanel boutique and

0:34:36.400 --> 0:34:38.759
<v Speaker 1>the you know, the high end luxury is high end

0:34:38.800 --> 0:34:42.279
<v Speaker 1>luxury something on your buying list as well. Yeah, I

0:34:42.320 --> 0:34:44.160
<v Speaker 1>think when I when I talked about main Street, I

0:34:44.200 --> 0:34:47.240
<v Speaker 1>think I'm talking about the average person, which would include malls,

0:34:47.840 --> 0:34:50.759
<v Speaker 1>you know, So I think that's um. The average person

0:34:50.840 --> 0:34:52.799
<v Speaker 1>has been sitting at home. They still have a lot

0:34:52.880 --> 0:34:55.920
<v Speaker 1>of money set aside, and they want to go spend it,

0:34:55.920 --> 0:34:57.440
<v Speaker 1>and they want to go have a good time. And

0:34:57.560 --> 0:35:02.080
<v Speaker 1>part of that is shopping is an experience. When you

0:35:02.160 --> 0:35:05.400
<v Speaker 1>say experience, I mean, are you thinking more about moving

0:35:05.440 --> 0:35:08.479
<v Speaker 1>away from what we've had over the last sixteen months

0:35:08.520 --> 0:35:10.880
<v Speaker 1>and the idea that we've gotten so used to shopping

0:35:10.960 --> 0:35:13.200
<v Speaker 1>online and going back to what we were seeing before

0:35:13.239 --> 0:35:17.000
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic when retailers and other other stores we're trying

0:35:17.000 --> 0:35:18.799
<v Speaker 1>to create experiences that you couldn't get online. You think

0:35:18.800 --> 0:35:21.320
<v Speaker 1>Americans are going to go back to that. I do

0:35:21.560 --> 0:35:23.560
<v Speaker 1>think that there's a reason to go back to that.

0:35:23.640 --> 0:35:25.560
<v Speaker 1>In fact, I think they have to go back to that,

0:35:26.120 --> 0:35:32.320
<v Speaker 1>because if you can buy anything easily, wouldn't So, for example,

0:35:32.920 --> 0:35:37.080
<v Speaker 1>if Walmart is competing against Amazon, what can Walmart offer

0:35:37.200 --> 0:35:41.799
<v Speaker 1>that Amazon can't. Now you say that's not necessarily an experience,

0:35:41.840 --> 0:35:44.439
<v Speaker 1>but it is an experience to go out to a shop.

0:35:44.560 --> 0:35:46.680
<v Speaker 1>If you look at Target, same thing, what can they

0:35:46.800 --> 0:35:51.080
<v Speaker 1>offer specifically that Amazon can't. And then of course at

0:35:51.120 --> 0:35:53.279
<v Speaker 1>the high end you have the high end retailers, but

0:35:53.360 --> 0:35:55.880
<v Speaker 1>you can create that experience at all levels, and I

0:35:55.920 --> 0:36:00.520
<v Speaker 1>think increasingly you're seeing all retailers try and make that happen.

0:36:01.200 --> 0:36:03.279
<v Speaker 1>So one place you would not want to be as

0:36:03.280 --> 0:36:09.160
<v Speaker 1>an investor right now, one place I would not want

0:36:09.200 --> 0:36:11.480
<v Speaker 1>to be as an investor right now. On the hot

0:36:11.560 --> 0:36:15.279
<v Speaker 1>seat there, Brad, No, I think it's a great question. Um.

0:36:16.120 --> 0:36:20.400
<v Speaker 1>I think I would say I would say some of

0:36:20.600 --> 0:36:24.279
<v Speaker 1>the I would probably say crypto. There's been a lot

0:36:24.400 --> 0:36:28.279
<v Speaker 1>of volutility out there, there's been a want of Um.

0:36:29.360 --> 0:36:36.040
<v Speaker 1>It's basically a story asset, and my question is how

0:36:36.120 --> 0:36:38.600
<v Speaker 1>much more good news can go out there? I mean,

0:36:38.680 --> 0:36:41.759
<v Speaker 1>we I'm just not sure I see the upside from

0:36:41.840 --> 0:36:44.359
<v Speaker 1>here from a sentiment point of view, I'm not sure

0:36:44.440 --> 0:36:47.959
<v Speaker 1>where I see the marginal buyer. All Right, We're gonna

0:36:48.040 --> 0:36:49.640
<v Speaker 1>leave it on that note. That's good to know, uh

0:36:49.680 --> 0:36:52.720
<v Speaker 1>and great to get your perspective. Brad McMillan, Chief investment Officer,

0:36:52.800 --> 0:36:56.799
<v Speaker 1>Commonwealth Financial Network, joining us on the phone from Waltham, Massachusetts.

0:36:56.840 --> 0:36:59.879
<v Speaker 1>They've got roughly two two point five billion in asset

0:37:00.000 --> 0:37:04.279
<v Speaker 1>it's under management. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:37:04.400 --> 0:37:07.839
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,

0:37:08.040 --> 0:37:09.680
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0:37:09.719 --> 0:37:12.760
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0:37:12.920 --> 0:37:14.359
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