Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the
Speaker 1: top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors
Speaker 1: all around the world. That shows the hand of the program.
Speaker 1: We're gonna be getting more insight into the move. The
Speaker 1: FED is in. I'm John Tucker in New York. I'm
Speaker 1: dou Krisner will have great decisions in the coming week
Speaker 1: from the Bank of Korea and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Speaker 1: I'm calling head get him in London where we're looking
Speaker 1: at the controversial cutter footballing World Cup. I maybe Morris
Speaker 1: in Washington. After the midterms. What comes next for the
Speaker 1: GOP and Donald Trump. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, Bloomberg one,
Speaker 1: Washington d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: nine sixties, San Francisco d A B Digital Radio, London,
Speaker 1: Sirius XM one nine ten, and around the world on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business App. Hi,
Speaker 1: everybody on John Tucker. Let's start today's program with the
Speaker 1: FED and becoming fed minutes headed our way, joining me
Speaker 1: to talk about it. Bloomberg Global Economics and Policy editor
Speaker 1: Michael McKee. You know, we had what Bloomberg is calling
Speaker 1: a deafening chorus of Fed hawks speaking this week, including St.
Speaker 1: Louis FED President Jim Bullard. Here's how he put it.
Speaker 1: Even under these generous assumptions, the policy rates still isn't
Speaker 1: at a zone that might be considered sufficiently restrictive. To
Speaker 1: get to this sufficiently restrictive level of policy will need
Speaker 1: to increase the policy rate further. Bullard presenting those charts
Speaker 1: at an event in Kentucky Hosted by the Greater Louisville, Inc.
Speaker 1: He showed a restrictive zone of somewhere between five and
Speaker 1: seven percent. So, um, how draconian is between five and
Speaker 1: seven that's encompasses the range from about as expected to
Speaker 1: draconian we have. Uh. Bullards go on to clarify that
Speaker 1: he's thinking five to five and a quarter percent for
Speaker 1: a terminal rate that's not outside the right can back
Speaker 1: up for people who don't follow this minute by minute
Speaker 1: like you, to the terminal rate is where the Fed's
Speaker 1: gonna stop and stop. What the rate is going to
Speaker 1: be when the Fed stops raising rates? And he thinks
Speaker 1: five to five at a quarter percent, where is it
Speaker 1: right now? Right now it's at four percent is the
Speaker 1: top of the range. Uh, it trades a little bit
Speaker 1: below that. So if you get to five and a
Speaker 1: quarter percent, you'd probably be trading around five to five
Speaker 1: point one percent something like that. So, uh, that's not
Speaker 1: outside the range of what other FED officials have been saying.
Speaker 1: There's sort of a feeling that they got to get
Speaker 1: to four and three quarters too, in the neighborhood of
Speaker 1: five maybe something a little bit over that seven percent.
Speaker 1: That would indicate that inflation is much stickier than they anticipated,
Speaker 1: and the economy is uh in need of much more restraint,
Speaker 1: and they had anticipated. What he did was used the
Speaker 1: tailor rule, which you've heard of, which is a way
Speaker 1: of plugging in economic indicators and it spits out what
Speaker 1: the optimal policy would be. Uh. It's really designed to
Speaker 1: look backward at what had happened, but some people use
Speaker 1: it looking forward. And he wanted to make the case
Speaker 1: that the FED is not done. No matter what happens,
Speaker 1: the FED is not done right now racing interest rate,
Speaker 1: you also got to consider the source. Jim Bullard is
Speaker 1: a bit of a hawk, right Well, he's been a hawk.
Speaker 1: He's been all over the map in his career, but
Speaker 1: lately been a hawk. The reason people pay attention to
Speaker 1: him is he's usually the first one to raise an
Speaker 1: idea that may then get into the mainstream. He was
Speaker 1: the first one to suggest that the Fed might do
Speaker 1: a seventy five basis point move this year, and now
Speaker 1: they've done four in a row. So when he says
Speaker 1: five to seven percent, obviously Wall Street sets up and
Speaker 1: takes note. When we get clues that maybe inflation, the
Speaker 1: rate of inflation has peaked, that the rate of inflation
Speaker 1: might be slowing, it's off to the races for the
Speaker 1: equity markets that we've seen with the latest CPI report.
Speaker 1: Um is the that's the c p I, that's inflation,
Speaker 1: the prices that we pay at the market. But in
Speaker 1: the employment report that still doesn't seem to have been
Speaker 1: impacted by any Fed policy. Am I right in saying that?
Speaker 1: And do they have to torpedo employment? That's a big
Speaker 1: argument out there. Historically that's what happens. The FED raisers
Speaker 1: interest rates, and so companies in particular, but people as well,
Speaker 1: with their auto loans and home loans stop borrowing money,
Speaker 1: and that means less economic activity, and then companies look
Speaker 1: at who they have on staff and they don't need
Speaker 1: as many people if they're not going to be doing
Speaker 1: as much work, and so you see the unemployment rate
Speaker 1: go up. Now in this case, uh, this is a
Speaker 1: very unusual situation because everybody lost their jobs at once
Speaker 1: and a lot of people didn't come back when the
Speaker 1: job's reopened. So you're during the pandemic. So you're seeing
Speaker 1: a slowdown now in the pace of job growth each month.
Speaker 1: But is that because companies don't need to hire as
Speaker 1: many people because they finally got people back, or is
Speaker 1: it because they see bad business conditions ahead. We don't know.
Speaker 1: We're looking at the unemployment rate and it went up
Speaker 1: from three and a half to three point seven percent,
Speaker 1: but it did that in August as well, and went
Speaker 1: back to three point five in September. So the Fed
Speaker 1: FED officials are saying, you know, as far as employment
Speaker 1: is concerned, we don't know yet what the actual trend is.
Speaker 1: They think unemployment has to go up to around four
Speaker 1: and a half percent or so, but it's not. I've
Speaker 1: been moving very quickly in that direction. So they're gonna
Speaker 1: want to see more and I'm sure that was a
Speaker 1: discussion at the meeting that will show up in the minutes.
Speaker 1: Can I utter the most dangerous words in investing? This
Speaker 1: time things are different? Uh, this time things are different.
Speaker 1: I mean it was the first thing they taught you
Speaker 1: in economics graduate school is this time things are never different,
Speaker 1: except that they are because we haven't had a pandemic,
Speaker 1: global pandemic like this since nineteen eighteen, and we didn't
Speaker 1: have good economic data at that point. So yeah, this
Speaker 1: time things are different. In the FED and Wall Street
Speaker 1: and everybody's trying to model what's going to happen. They're
Speaker 1: doing their best, but there's not a lot of historical
Speaker 1: data to put into those models, so they can't be sure.
Speaker 1: All right, Mike, as always, we appreciate it. Michael McKee,
Speaker 1: and just a hand on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. Big decisions
Speaker 1: looming for the Bank of Korea and New Zealand's Central
Speaker 1: Bank as well. I'm John Summer. This is Bloomberg. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the
Speaker 1: top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm John
Speaker 1: Sucker in New York. Of Later in the program, the
Speaker 1: world copy and Cutter is upon US and the event
Speaker 1: and politics surrounded getting a lot of attention. But first
Speaker 1: central banker is in Asia steering down inflation and for more,
Speaker 1: let's go to Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Doug Krisner John.
Speaker 1: As you know, inflation has been at historic levels in
Speaker 1: many countries across the globe, and the respective central banks
Speaker 1: have been fighting to bring those prices down. Well. In
Speaker 1: the week ahead, we have monetary policy decisions from the
Speaker 1: Bank of Korea and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Speaker 1: Now it's going to be particularly delicate for the b
Speaker 1: OK since South Korea has been dealing with a credit
Speaker 1: crunch in the last week. On day Break Asia, we
Speaker 1: ask Rajeev de Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gamma
Speaker 1: Asset Management, for his take. The Bank of Create is
Speaker 1: somewhat more dubbish than central banks in in Latin America
Speaker 1: or the US for many domestic reasons as well. But
Speaker 1: inflation has not only gone up for domestic reasons, but
Speaker 1: the one has been weak until most recently, and that's
Speaker 1: also not been very good for the Bank of Korea.
Speaker 1: Will high rates we expect to twenty five basis points hike.
Speaker 1: That's Rajiv Demelo of Gamma Asset Management. So let's take
Speaker 1: a preview of the b OKA meeting with Bloomberg's Global
Speaker 1: Economics and Policy editor Kathleen Hayes. So, this is the
Speaker 1: last rate decision that the b OK will have for
Speaker 1: a rate hike. I think, Kathleen, seems to be a
Speaker 1: foregone conclusion. If there's a debate right now in markets
Speaker 1: or fifty basis points, is that fair? It's completely fair
Speaker 1: because they did a fifty basis point rate hike when
Speaker 1: they had signaled twenty five basis points at the last meeting,
Speaker 1: and they got a bit of pushback after that. That's
Speaker 1: one of the reasons why I think some economists has
Speaker 1: been saying, uh that even with inflation still high, but
Speaker 1: with a property market under pressure and a credit market
Speaker 1: that's has been gone through some major gyrations in the
Speaker 1: last month or so, it would be prudent to go
Speaker 1: back to the twenty five basis point hike for now,
Speaker 1: that seems to be the consensus. It will be quite
Speaker 1: a surprise if they do the fifty and the wand
Speaker 1: wanting to keep its stable might be a reason for
Speaker 1: them to do that, because going into the previous meeting
Speaker 1: that's one of the reasons why they're expected to step
Speaker 1: up a little bit more to put a floor into
Speaker 1: the currency. There seems to be this view in markets
Speaker 1: that the risk of corporate default is greater now and
Speaker 1: in particular concentrated in some segments of the business community
Speaker 1: within South Korea. Leverage we know is a problem in
Speaker 1: household activity, but I didn't realize that it was so
Speaker 1: critical on the corporate side. First step one, so setting
Speaker 1: the whole thing up, was the global bond route. That's
Speaker 1: what pressured bond markets around the world. But then the
Speaker 1: funniest thing happened on September, UH, the developer of the
Speaker 1: Lego Land Korea theme park in Gangwong Province, missed its
Speaker 1: payments on its commercial paper repackaging loans. There these project
Speaker 1: financing asset bait commercial papers what they're called. But the
Speaker 1: bottom line is um It's the biggest shareholders is Ganguan.
Speaker 1: There was there's a kind of a government side of this.
Speaker 1: There was the previous mayor that I would say the
Speaker 1: local government that was backing the developer. They wanted to
Speaker 1: bring in this. It has finished. It's the second largest
Speaker 1: UH Lego Land park in the world and then with
Speaker 1: a new president taking over, change of political power, the
Speaker 1: next administration didn't want to back the developer anymore. Anyway,
Speaker 1: It's a long story, but that default just just shot
Speaker 1: through the corporate bond market, yields on five year corporate
Speaker 1: debt rising more than a hundred fifty basis points at
Speaker 1: one point, uh liquidity drying up. And then there was
Speaker 1: an insurance company that didn't call its perpetual bonds bottom line,
Speaker 1: they were going to just pull back their refinancing of
Speaker 1: the bonds, and that was another bang to the corporate
Speaker 1: bond market, and that's created a big loss of confidence.
Speaker 1: It has Koreans worried about investors continuing to want to
Speaker 1: invest in their bond market. And it's not entirely settled yet,
Speaker 1: but it also doesn't in a in a way at
Speaker 1: harkins to what we saw in the UK, where suddenly
Speaker 1: a market that's been stable doesn't seem to be a problem.
Speaker 1: A lot of different things happened. Of course, it was
Speaker 1: the the ill timed and ill designed package budget package
Speaker 1: that Liz Trust had for a while. Anyway, I digress
Speaker 1: a bit, but it's that kind of a thing for
Speaker 1: create seems to stable for now. But talking about the
Speaker 1: Bank of Korea, it's another big reason to say, hey,
Speaker 1: this is not time for a fifty basis point high.
Speaker 1: So that's the corporate story. Then on the household side,
Speaker 1: we know that debt levels are pretty high and viewed
Speaker 1: as being maybe a little vulnerable, although I think Fitch
Speaker 1: Ratings this week had a note said that that vulnerability
Speaker 1: can be managed. Rising interest rates and the way that
Speaker 1: that correlates to mortgage rates in a different way than
Speaker 1: it does in the States puts even greater pressure on
Speaker 1: the households. In Korea, well, about eight of crean households
Speaker 1: have adjustable rate debt, so I believe it was one
Speaker 1: of the b Okay of ischials who said, so a
Speaker 1: fifty basis point hike by the Bank of Korea is
Speaker 1: more like a seventy five basis point hike by someone
Speaker 1: like the Federal Reserve. Remember most most Americans, or at
Speaker 1: least many Americans, have thirty yor fixed rate mortgages, so
Speaker 1: it's a big difference when your central bank starts raising rates.
Speaker 1: So be okay. This week we also have the rb
Speaker 1: n Z, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Right now,
Speaker 1: I think that the consensus is that we're going to
Speaker 1: see a much weaker economy in New Zealand in three uh.
Speaker 1: It's really been struggling as many economies across the world
Speaker 1: have been to come back to some degree of normalcy
Speaker 1: after the pandemic. What do we know about the outlook
Speaker 1: for rate policy in New Zealand, Well, we know that
Speaker 1: their inflation rates very high. It's continued to rise. It's
Speaker 1: up to seven point two percent year over year. We
Speaker 1: know that Adrian or, the Governor of the Reserve Bank
Speaker 1: of New Zealand, is not afraid to do aggressive, bold
Speaker 1: moves because remember at the very beginning of the downturn globally,
Speaker 1: when the pandemics started, they suddenly went from one percent
Speaker 1: on their key rate seventy basis point down to zero
Speaker 1: point to five. Who else was They were out front,
Speaker 1: and they were out front on the way back up.
Speaker 1: But I think now they're there. Rad hikes, they're they're
Speaker 1: aggressive tightening have been very effective in hitting the housing market.
Speaker 1: There are high prices, the market was overheated, but and
Speaker 1: that hasn't stopped them yet. And there are other parallels too,
Speaker 1: when you look at the tightness of the labor market
Speaker 1: in the face of higher interest rates. In the States,
Speaker 1: the labor market is pretty pretty tight. Same is true
Speaker 1: in Australia, even though the r b A has been
Speaker 1: tightening the labor market. We just had in the last
Speaker 1: week a shockingly strong employment number, double what the market
Speaker 1: was forecasting. And in New Zealand, labor market conditions are
Speaker 1: very tight. Although I think the expectation now is that
Speaker 1: things will begin to loosen in the new year. Yes,
Speaker 1: but is loosening enough. That's the thing. I think It's
Speaker 1: all relative, isn't it. And that's another reason why Um,
Speaker 1: some of these uh particually. I think developed nation central
Speaker 1: banks or in this position where they can maybe slowed
Speaker 1: down the pace of rate hikes, the size of rate
Speaker 1: hikes for various reasons be okay, their corporate bond markets
Speaker 1: still being in turmoil, still being tight. Um. The RBN said,
Speaker 1: maybe figuring that the what the impact that they've had
Speaker 1: on housing is is pretty what I want to say, significant.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, the economies are holding up
Speaker 1: and their inflation rates are still higher, well above target,
Speaker 1: so the doors open to more hikes at this point,
Speaker 1: just like the FED. The question isn't do they stop
Speaker 1: yet or anything like that. It's just how big. The
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Global Economics and Policy Editor Kathleen Hayes. I'm Doug Krisner.
Speaker 1: You can join us for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia beginning at
Speaker 1: seven am in Hong Kong, six pm on Wall Street.
Speaker 1: John Doug, thanks a lot, and just to have the
Speaker 1: world cough a N. Cutter. I'm John Tucker is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Getteractive Broker Studio in New York.
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven three oh to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine
Speaker 1: to the country Sirius XM Channel one nineteen to London
Speaker 1: d A B Digital Radio, and around the globe the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business apt in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg day Break Weekend. I'm John Tucker in New York
Speaker 1: with your global look ahead of the top stories for
Speaker 1: investors in the coming week. Big weekend for Cutter and
Speaker 1: for soccer fans with the World Cup for more. Let's
Speaker 1: send to London and bring in Bloomberg day Break. Euro
Speaker 1: Banker Caroline Hempger, John the Cutter World Cup is becoming
Speaker 1: one of the most controversial sporting events in history. Cut
Speaker 1: a country of three million people, won the vote to
Speaker 1: host the tournament back in despite its scorching climate and
Speaker 1: lack of footballing history. It's faced enormous critics is um
Speaker 1: for its lack of freedom's mistreatment of migrant workers a
Speaker 1: country where homosexuality is illegal. But Cutter has defended itself
Speaker 1: against the sports washing accusations and the event could deliver
Speaker 1: record revenue for organizers FIFA and a diplomatic dividend. Now.
Speaker 1: FIFA's president Gianni Infantino says that the tournament and cut
Speaker 1: Are can be used as a force for good. Football
Speaker 1: and the World Cup are offering you and the world
Speaker 1: a unique platform of unity and these all over the world.
Speaker 1: So let's take this opportunity to where everything we can
Speaker 1: to start something. An end to all conflicts, okay, an
Speaker 1: enter all conflicts. So in Fantino also did as a
Speaker 1: ceasefire in Ukraine for the month long World Cup. Well
Speaker 1: for more. Joining me now is Bienberg, Simon and Foxman
Speaker 1: in Doha and here in the London studio, David Hellier.
Speaker 1: Welcome to both of you to discuss I mean, what
Speaker 1: is a huge event in the footballing in the global
Speaker 1: sporting calendar. David, can I ask you first? I mean
Speaker 1: Cutter wanted a global platform through football. It really has one.
Speaker 1: What do you think this World Cup is going to
Speaker 1: be like? Well, I mean, obviously the jury is out
Speaker 1: on this, um. I mean the build up has been
Speaker 1: unremitting lye uh you know negative in terms of criticisms
Speaker 1: of of of the country and it's it's sort of
Speaker 1: treatment the migrant workers and uh LGBT rights, um, all
Speaker 1: that kind of thing. Um. But on the from on
Speaker 1: the on on the other side, you know, a number
Speaker 1: of stadiums have been built that look amazing. Uh. There
Speaker 1: would have been a you know, a great rebuilding the
Speaker 1: infrastructure of guitar. So from that point of view, it
Speaker 1: leaves a useful legacy for the country. Um. But we
Speaker 1: really I don't think we've really seen anything quite like
Speaker 1: this before. The clash of cultures and it really, you know,
Speaker 1: it really will depend on how uh you know, how
Speaker 1: they mix, um, And so we wait and see. I
Speaker 1: guess yeah, and I know of course, because hey, you
Speaker 1: are a huge football fan. Also you write a great
Speaker 1: deal about the business of sports and you're going to
Speaker 1: be in Cutter to actually see some of the footballing
Speaker 1: action and simone in Doha. I mean, this is this
Speaker 1: is it isn't it? It's Western footballing countries kind of
Speaker 1: outrage that cut off for all the reasons that I mentioned,
Speaker 1: is actually hosting the event. What are the Qataris see?
Speaker 1: How do they see it? You know, I think there's
Speaker 1: a degree of surprise that some of the criticism has
Speaker 1: gone on for so long. Mind you, it's not just
Speaker 1: about human rights where or migrant rights, or the rights
Speaker 1: of minorities, including LGBT people, but it's also remember think
Speaker 1: back to um the early twenty tens when there were
Speaker 1: all these swirling controversies around corruption. You know, Cutter is
Speaker 1: thought to have won this bid to host the World Cup,
Speaker 1: um maybe for unsavory reasons, as well as Russia eighteen.
Speaker 1: And I think particularly in the UK, you know, fans
Speaker 1: haven't really forgotten about that. Here on the ground, though,
Speaker 1: you know, the attitude has changed a little bit. I
Speaker 1: think there was some openness to labor reforms. Certainly the
Speaker 1: expose as that came out painted a very dire picture
Speaker 1: of what life is like for the lowest income workers.
Speaker 1: But this campaign has been unrelenting, and recently Mohammad Athani,
Speaker 1: the ruling emir, talked about this as an unprecedented campaign
Speaker 1: against the country for reasons that may not be um.
Speaker 1: I guess I'm just may not be so justified. And
Speaker 1: so we've sort of seen that kind of evolved a
Speaker 1: bit more resistance. Okay, so football, but also much beyond
Speaker 1: football as we look ahead to the World Cup two.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for being with me, blom Big
Speaker 1: Simone Foxman in Doha and David Helliot in London. Of
Speaker 1: course they'll be at some of the matches in cutter
Speaker 1: and I'm callin Heger here in London. You can catch
Speaker 1: me every weekday morning for bloom Bag Daybreak. That's beginning
Speaker 1: at six am in London, one am on Wall Street,
Speaker 1: John Caroline, thanks alone just to hear on Bloomberg Daybreak
Speaker 1: weekend the battle lines already being drawn for the four
Speaker 1: presidential race. I'm John Tucker. Emptis Bloomberg. This agains Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead of the top stories
Speaker 1: for investors in the coming week. I'm John Tucker in
Speaker 1: New York. A lot of uncertain among Republicans and some
Speaker 1: level of uncertain among Democrats as well as we start
Speaker 1: to set up now for the presidential race. More. Let's
Speaker 1: into our Bloomberg ninety one one newsroom in Washington and
Speaker 1: Amy Morris Amy, all right, thank you, John. One of
Speaker 1: the biggest question marks hanging over the GOP right now
Speaker 1: after the midterms. What comes next for the GOP and
Speaker 1: Donald Trump? Who want to take a deeper look at
Speaker 1: this with Bloomberg editor Megan Crane. Megan, thank you for
Speaker 1: taking the time with us today. Oh, thanks for having me. Now,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump announced his own plans to run for president
Speaker 1: again from his Moral Lago estate in Florida, in order
Speaker 1: to make America grated glorious again. I am tonight announcing
Speaker 1: my candidacy for president of the United States. Now. He
Speaker 1: seemed a bit muted during that announcement compared to the
Speaker 1: last time he ran Megan, what's your thoughts? Um. You
Speaker 1: know a lot of people have said that the announcement
Speaker 1: sounded more uh muted is the right word, yeah, sort
Speaker 1: of a less energetic. Um. He did say that he's
Speaker 1: hoping to recapture the underdog spirit of UM a smaller,
Speaker 1: scrappier campaign apparatus than he had in Um. You know,
Speaker 1: it's harder to make an announcement in front of a
Speaker 1: room full of your friends at Mara Lego than it
Speaker 1: is in front of a crowd of supporters, you know,
Speaker 1: sort of out in the country somewhere. But you know,
Speaker 1: it sort of remains to be seen whether he's able
Speaker 1: to recapture that energy. Now Here's what fellow Republican New
Speaker 1: Hampshire Governor Chris Sunew had to say, Uh, the same time,
Speaker 1: at the night that the former president was announcing, the
Speaker 1: political atmosphere today will be a hundred eighty degrees different
Speaker 1: six months from now, eighty degrees six months after that,
Speaker 1: and then we'll get to June of twenty four and
Speaker 1: we'll we'll see where we are there. It's gonna go
Speaker 1: up and down and in and out. We are so
Speaker 1: far away from all of it. So that's why I
Speaker 1: say it's going to be kind of an up and
Speaker 1: down wild right. Enjoy the show because we are so
Speaker 1: far whatever whatever announcements may or may not be happening tonight,
Speaker 1: Uh right, that nobody is going to care. That was
Speaker 1: New Hampshire Governor Christannu Knew speaking there at the Republican
Speaker 1: Governor's Conference. And I guess what I want to know
Speaker 1: about that, Megan, is are we starting to see a
Speaker 1: shift or a rift? Are we starting to see a
Speaker 1: split within the Republican Party or is the party going
Speaker 1: back to the more conservative, traditional type Republican Party that
Speaker 1: we we may have grown up with in the seventies
Speaker 1: and eighties. Where are we seeing? Sure, Well, that's a
Speaker 1: really good question, and I think a lot of people
Speaker 1: in Washington would love to know the answer. Um. You know,
Speaker 1: Josh Holly, Senator Josh Holly's said that the mid terms
Speaker 1: had been a funeral for the Republican Party as we've
Speaker 1: seen it in the recent you know, in recent years.
Speaker 1: So a funeral for the Trump Republican Party. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: suppose you know, yeah, that would be what he meant
Speaker 1: to say. Sure, but the traditional Republicans weren't supporting supportive
Speaker 1: of Trump in sixteen either, So, uh, you know that
Speaker 1: riff isn't really new, Um, and we've seen this show before.
Speaker 1: Trump is a force to be reckoned with, and I
Speaker 1: don't know that they can just turn the page on
Speaker 1: him so quickly. But it's not just the politicals, right,
Speaker 1: it's also those wealthy conservatives who are starting to turn
Speaker 1: their backs on him. You actually have been reporting on
Speaker 1: that on the Bloomberg terminal. Um Ken Griffin, founder and
Speaker 1: CEO at the hedge fund Citadel, actually put it this way.
Speaker 1: He lost, We lost Georgia because of his behavior in
Speaker 1: the Senate race. In that's a second loss. And then
Speaker 1: this year the Republicans lost the Senate because the Trump
Speaker 1: back candidates in the Senate races were rejected by American voters.
Speaker 1: That's a three time loser. And I'd like to think
Speaker 1: that the Republican Party is ready to move on from
Speaker 1: somebody who's been for this party a three time loser.
Speaker 1: It's important to note here that Griffin is also very
Speaker 1: heavily invested in Florida. He's openly supporting a possible run
Speaker 1: for president by Governor De Santis in Florida, but also
Speaker 1: calling the former president a loser. I would think, really stings.
Speaker 1: That is a word that for Donald Trump is a
Speaker 1: naughty word. Yeah, it's like the ultimate insults. Isn't Trump right? Um?
Speaker 1: A three time loser? He's not alone in saying that
Speaker 1: he won't support Trump going forward. Uh. Stephen Schwartzman came
Speaker 1: out with a statement saying he would not be supporting
Speaker 1: Trump's run and then he was really looking to a
Speaker 1: new generation. He did not specifically speak to de Santis,
Speaker 1: but that's sort of, you know, somewhat coded that we
Speaker 1: talked about de Santis when we talked about a new
Speaker 1: generation of Republicans. Um importantly, though, those big or i'm sorry,
Speaker 1: deep pocketed Republicans didn't give to Trump before either, and
Speaker 1: you know, they didn't support him early on in his candidacy,
Speaker 1: and he ran without that kind of money in so, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, it's impossible to know whether he's able to
Speaker 1: move on without him. Some people think that these big
Speaker 1: donors moving away from Trump is actually good for him
Speaker 1: because he it reinvigorates his image as sort of working
Speaker 1: for the working class and the working man as opposed
Speaker 1: to sort of being you know, tied to big business
Speaker 1: and big money and rich people. You know, that's an
Speaker 1: excellent point because it occurs to me he probably doesn't
Speaker 1: need the money. He hasn't need the money, has quite
Speaker 1: the war chest he does. He has you know, lots
Speaker 1: of money on hand that he can spend it. It
Speaker 1: gets more complicated how he can spend it now that
Speaker 1: he's announced. But you know, he does have access to funds.
Speaker 1: I think the um the signal from people like Griffith
Speaker 1: and um Swordsman is basically it opens a lane for
Speaker 1: other people. If you're Rhonda Santis, you're Glenn yuncan it
Speaker 1: sort of lets it be known that there's money out
Speaker 1: there for them. It's not as important that they're worth
Speaker 1: holding from Trump, that they're making it available to other people.
Speaker 1: Right that That exactly what I was going to ask
Speaker 1: you about next. If it opens up that lane, and
Speaker 1: if it also opens a lane for other big ticket donors,
Speaker 1: big heavy donors, to sort of be empowered or be
Speaker 1: emboldened to say, oh, you know what, we're gonna throw
Speaker 1: our money behind this other candidate as well. For sure.
Speaker 1: I mean these aren't necessarily people who you would say
Speaker 1: follow the leader so much, but it is a little
Speaker 1: bit of that. Right. You know, when the tide turns,
Speaker 1: people people don't like throwing good money after bad, so
Speaker 1: you know they'll be sort of looking to see who
Speaker 1: people are supporting, where the money is going, and where
Speaker 1: that's often where they'll put their dollars. Did it surprise
Speaker 1: you when the president's daughter, Ivanka Trump stood up and
Speaker 1: said I'm not going to be a part of this
Speaker 1: one and enjoy good luck. But I'm out right, Um,
Speaker 1: did it surprise me? Is not really? She's been signaling
Speaker 1: for a while that she was pretty done with politics.
Speaker 1: It maybe wasn't as fun as she had expected fun.
Speaker 1: You know, it's not that glamorous. Policy work is actually
Speaker 1: harder than sometimes people maybe expect. I think that she
Speaker 1: and her husband took a lot of criticism for taking
Speaker 1: jobs in the White House, Um, and that maybe so
Speaker 1: you know, they've been there and done that. Maybe you know,
Speaker 1: it's time for their family to move on. So then
Speaker 1: what's the next step for Donald Trump? You know, I
Speaker 1: think that Trump doesn't want his legacy to be ending
Speaker 1: on a loss, right, and so he has one way
Speaker 1: to change that, which is to try again. And he'll
Speaker 1: do that if he can. You know, what sort of
Speaker 1: remains to be seen whether he can marshal the energy
Speaker 1: that he needs personally and also among his supporters. But
Speaker 1: you know, he is the leading candidate for the Republican
Speaker 1: nomination by a lot. Like people are talking about Rhonda Santis,
Speaker 1: but those poles showed to Santis, you know, sort of
Speaker 1: like early who would you prefer to be the Republican nominee.
Speaker 1: Poles showed to Santis behind by like fifty percentage points.
Speaker 1: It's not you know, it's not like running neck and neck.
Speaker 1: It was like, you know, Trump a whole bunch of
Speaker 1: space and then a few other people. So de Santis rises,
Speaker 1: he won by a lot. You know, he's very popular
Speaker 1: right now. But also that's a very dangerous play to
Speaker 1: be Politics is a law as it's kind of dirty,
Speaker 1: long business. And the Washington Post had a story this
Speaker 1: week about how the air of inevitability is sort of
Speaker 1: a death sentence in politics. Um, I'm not certainly saying
Speaker 1: Rhonda Santis is not doing well and writing a wave
Speaker 1: right now, but two years out, we've often talked about
Speaker 1: a lot of frontrunners who are not who never became president.
Speaker 1: A lot can happen, Yeah, Bush, you know it was inevitable.
Speaker 1: John Edwards was you know, had inevitability. So you know,
Speaker 1: we can go way back to when you know that's
Speaker 1: sort of a dangerous position to be in. It puts
Speaker 1: a lot of targets on your back as well. And
Speaker 1: we are talking with Bloomberg editor Megan Crane about what
Speaker 1: comes next for the Republican Party and for Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: But let's also talk about Democrats to the mid terms
Speaker 1: a huge win for President Biden in a way. The
Speaker 1: results are mixed though, but not as bad as they thought.
Speaker 1: So a moral victory. I'm not sure how they would
Speaker 1: describe it. Certainly the Senate numbers are evidence of that. Um,
Speaker 1: there's some questions about you know, Biden's age. There are
Speaker 1: other questions that persist. But is there a way that
Speaker 1: the Democrats can take advantage of this? Yeah? So you know,
Speaker 1: Joe Biden turns eighty on Sunday. Um, he is already
Speaker 1: the oldest president and you know he would be eighty
Speaker 1: two if he were reelected. That definitely. There's a lot
Speaker 1: of talk about generational change in the Democratic Party right now. Um,
Speaker 1: the House is led by three people in their eighties
Speaker 1: right now? Is that just the Democrats? I mean the
Speaker 1: on both sides of the political aisle, you see a
Speaker 1: lot of people who are in their seventies and EIGHTI yes,
Speaker 1: that's right. Donald Trump is seventy six. You know, there's definitely, UM,
Speaker 1: there seems to be a tied turning. Generational change is
Speaker 1: sort of what you keep hearing people talk about. There
Speaker 1: are lots of UM, Democrats, you know, who are decades
Speaker 1: younger than the president, who are looking looking to the future,
Speaker 1: looking to be the future of the party. Um Weather,
Speaker 1: But you know, right now Biden is the president, which
Speaker 1: is of course an incredibly powerful place to be. It's
Speaker 1: a you know, um, it's a he would be a
Speaker 1: natural front runner. Bloomberg Editor Megan Crane, thank you very
Speaker 1: much for taking the time with us. And that is
Speaker 1: what is going on in the nation's capital. For more
Speaker 1: of our political news coverage, tune into Balance of Power
Speaker 1: with David Weston weekdays at noon Wall Street Time, and
Speaker 1: Sound On with Joe Matthew week days at five pm
Speaker 1: Wall Street Time. Here on Bloomberg Radio, I'm Amy Morris
Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg John. Amy Morris reporting from our
Speaker 1: Bloomberg in Washington. Thanks a lot, Amy, and that does
Speaker 1: it for this additional Bloomberg day Break weekend. Join us
Speaker 1: again Monday morning at five again Wall Street Time, for
Speaker 1: the latest on markets overseas, at the news you need
Speaker 1: to start your day. I'm John Tucker and this is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg