1 00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 2 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:08,960 Speaker 1: top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors 3 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:11,799 Speaker 1: all around the world. That shows the hand of the program. 4 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:14,240 Speaker 1: We're gonna be getting more insight into the move. The 5 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: FED is in. I'm John Tucker in New York. I'm 6 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:19,640 Speaker 1: dou Krisner will have great decisions in the coming week 7 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,920 Speaker 1: from the Bank of Korea and the Reserve Bank of Australia. 8 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 1: I'm calling head get him in London where we're looking 9 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: at the controversial cutter footballing World Cup. I maybe Morris 10 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: in Washington. After the midterms. What comes next for the 11 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:38,480 Speaker 1: GOP and Donald Trump. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg 12 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 1: Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, Bloomberg one, 13 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: Washington d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg 14 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 1: nine sixties, San Francisco d A B Digital Radio, London, 15 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: Sirius XM one nine ten, and around the world on 16 00:00:54,120 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business App. Hi, 17 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: everybody on John Tucker. Let's start today's program with the 18 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: FED and becoming fed minutes headed our way, joining me 19 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: to talk about it. Bloomberg Global Economics and Policy editor 20 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:13,960 Speaker 1: Michael McKee. You know, we had what Bloomberg is calling 21 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 1: a deafening chorus of Fed hawks speaking this week, including St. 22 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 1: Louis FED President Jim Bullard. Here's how he put it. 23 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 1: Even under these generous assumptions, the policy rates still isn't 24 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 1: at a zone that might be considered sufficiently restrictive. To 25 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: get to this sufficiently restrictive level of policy will need 26 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:38,759 Speaker 1: to increase the policy rate further. Bullard presenting those charts 27 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 1: at an event in Kentucky Hosted by the Greater Louisville, Inc. 28 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 1: He showed a restrictive zone of somewhere between five and 29 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 1: seven percent. So, um, how draconian is between five and 30 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: seven that's encompasses the range from about as expected to 31 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: draconian we have. Uh. Bullards go on to clarify that 32 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 1: he's thinking five to five and a quarter percent for 33 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: a terminal rate that's not outside the right can back 34 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: up for people who don't follow this minute by minute 35 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 1: like you, to the terminal rate is where the Fed's 36 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 1: gonna stop and stop. What the rate is going to 37 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:21,079 Speaker 1: be when the Fed stops raising rates? And he thinks 38 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: five to five at a quarter percent, where is it 39 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: right now? Right now it's at four percent is the 40 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: top of the range. Uh, it trades a little bit 41 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 1: below that. So if you get to five and a 42 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: quarter percent, you'd probably be trading around five to five 43 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 1: point one percent something like that. So, uh, that's not 44 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,959 Speaker 1: outside the range of what other FED officials have been saying. 45 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 1: There's sort of a feeling that they got to get 46 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 1: to four and three quarters too, in the neighborhood of 47 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: five maybe something a little bit over that seven percent. 48 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:55,359 Speaker 1: That would indicate that inflation is much stickier than they anticipated, 49 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: and the economy is uh in need of much more restraint, 50 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 1: and they had anticipated. What he did was used the 51 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: tailor rule, which you've heard of, which is a way 52 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:10,359 Speaker 1: of plugging in economic indicators and it spits out what 53 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 1: the optimal policy would be. Uh. It's really designed to 54 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: look backward at what had happened, but some people use 55 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 1: it looking forward. And he wanted to make the case 56 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: that the FED is not done. No matter what happens, 57 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 1: the FED is not done right now racing interest rate, 58 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 1: you also got to consider the source. Jim Bullard is 59 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: a bit of a hawk, right Well, he's been a hawk. 60 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: He's been all over the map in his career, but 61 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: lately been a hawk. The reason people pay attention to 62 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 1: him is he's usually the first one to raise an 63 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: idea that may then get into the mainstream. He was 64 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: the first one to suggest that the Fed might do 65 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 1: a seventy five basis point move this year, and now 66 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: they've done four in a row. So when he says 67 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 1: five to seven percent, obviously Wall Street sets up and 68 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: takes note. When we get clues that maybe inflation, the 69 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: rate of inflation has peaked, that the rate of inflation 70 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: might be slowing, it's off to the races for the 71 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: equity markets that we've seen with the latest CPI report. 72 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: Um is the that's the c p I, that's inflation, 73 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 1: the prices that we pay at the market. But in 74 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 1: the employment report that still doesn't seem to have been 75 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 1: impacted by any Fed policy. Am I right in saying that? 76 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: And do they have to torpedo employment? That's a big 77 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 1: argument out there. Historically that's what happens. The FED raisers 78 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: interest rates, and so companies in particular, but people as well, 79 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: with their auto loans and home loans stop borrowing money, 80 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: and that means less economic activity, and then companies look 81 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: at who they have on staff and they don't need 82 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 1: as many people if they're not going to be doing 83 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 1: as much work, and so you see the unemployment rate 84 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: go up. Now in this case, uh, this is a 85 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 1: very unusual situation because everybody lost their jobs at once 86 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 1: and a lot of people didn't come back when the 87 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: job's reopened. So you're during the pandemic. So you're seeing 88 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:12,360 Speaker 1: a slowdown now in the pace of job growth each month. 89 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: But is that because companies don't need to hire as 90 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: many people because they finally got people back, or is 91 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 1: it because they see bad business conditions ahead. We don't know. 92 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:25,279 Speaker 1: We're looking at the unemployment rate and it went up 93 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: from three and a half to three point seven percent, 94 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 1: but it did that in August as well, and went 95 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: back to three point five in September. So the Fed 96 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,160 Speaker 1: FED officials are saying, you know, as far as employment 97 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 1: is concerned, we don't know yet what the actual trend is. 98 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 1: They think unemployment has to go up to around four 99 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: and a half percent or so, but it's not. I've 100 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: been moving very quickly in that direction. So they're gonna 101 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 1: want to see more and I'm sure that was a 102 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 1: discussion at the meeting that will show up in the minutes. 103 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: Can I utter the most dangerous words in investing? This 104 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: time things are different? Uh, this time things are different. 105 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,160 Speaker 1: I mean it was the first thing they taught you 106 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: in economics graduate school is this time things are never different, 107 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 1: except that they are because we haven't had a pandemic, 108 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 1: global pandemic like this since nineteen eighteen, and we didn't 109 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:18,479 Speaker 1: have good economic data at that point. So yeah, this 110 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,119 Speaker 1: time things are different. In the FED and Wall Street 111 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: and everybody's trying to model what's going to happen. They're 112 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: doing their best, but there's not a lot of historical 113 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 1: data to put into those models, so they can't be sure. 114 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: All right, Mike, as always, we appreciate it. Michael McKee, 115 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 1: and just a hand on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. Big decisions 116 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 1: looming for the Bank of Korea and New Zealand's Central 117 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: Bank as well. I'm John Summer. This is Bloomberg. This 118 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the 119 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 1: top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm John 120 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 1: Sucker in New York. Of Later in the program, the 121 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: world copy and Cutter is upon US and the event 122 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 1: and politics surrounded getting a lot of attention. But first 123 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 1: central banker is in Asia steering down inflation and for more, 124 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: let's go to Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Doug Krisner John. 125 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: As you know, inflation has been at historic levels in 126 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:23,119 Speaker 1: many countries across the globe, and the respective central banks 127 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: have been fighting to bring those prices down. Well. In 128 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: the week ahead, we have monetary policy decisions from the 129 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 1: Bank of Korea and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. 130 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 1: Now it's going to be particularly delicate for the b 131 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: OK since South Korea has been dealing with a credit 132 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 1: crunch in the last week. On day Break Asia, we 133 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: ask Rajeev de Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gamma 134 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: Asset Management, for his take. The Bank of Create is 135 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: somewhat more dubbish than central banks in in Latin America 136 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: or the US for many domestic reasons as well. But 137 00:07:56,800 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: inflation has not only gone up for domestic reasons, but 138 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: the one has been weak until most recently, and that's 139 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,559 Speaker 1: also not been very good for the Bank of Korea. 140 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 1: Will high rates we expect to twenty five basis points hike. 141 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: That's Rajiv Demelo of Gamma Asset Management. So let's take 142 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 1: a preview of the b OKA meeting with Bloomberg's Global 143 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 1: Economics and Policy editor Kathleen Hayes. So, this is the 144 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: last rate decision that the b OK will have for 145 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: a rate hike. I think, Kathleen, seems to be a 146 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 1: foregone conclusion. If there's a debate right now in markets 147 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 1: or fifty basis points, is that fair? It's completely fair 148 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: because they did a fifty basis point rate hike when 149 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 1: they had signaled twenty five basis points at the last meeting, 150 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: and they got a bit of pushback after that. That's 151 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 1: one of the reasons why I think some economists has 152 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: been saying, uh that even with inflation still high, but 153 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: with a property market under pressure and a credit market 154 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 1: that's has been gone through some major gyrations in the 155 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,560 Speaker 1: last month or so, it would be prudent to go 156 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 1: back to the twenty five basis point hike for now, 157 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: that seems to be the consensus. It will be quite 158 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: a surprise if they do the fifty and the wand 159 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: wanting to keep its stable might be a reason for 160 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: them to do that, because going into the previous meeting 161 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: that's one of the reasons why they're expected to step 162 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 1: up a little bit more to put a floor into 163 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 1: the currency. There seems to be this view in markets 164 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 1: that the risk of corporate default is greater now and 165 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 1: in particular concentrated in some segments of the business community 166 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 1: within South Korea. Leverage we know is a problem in 167 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 1: household activity, but I didn't realize that it was so 168 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: critical on the corporate side. First step one, so setting 169 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 1: the whole thing up, was the global bond route. That's 170 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 1: what pressured bond markets around the world. But then the 171 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 1: funniest thing happened on September, UH, the developer of the 172 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: Lego Land Korea theme park in Gangwong Province, missed its 173 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: payments on its commercial paper repackaging loans. There these project 174 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,599 Speaker 1: financing asset bait commercial papers what they're called. But the 175 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: bottom line is um It's the biggest shareholders is Ganguan. 176 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 1: There was there's a kind of a government side of this. 177 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: There was the previous mayor that I would say the 178 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 1: local government that was backing the developer. They wanted to 179 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 1: bring in this. It has finished. It's the second largest 180 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 1: UH Lego Land park in the world and then with 181 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: a new president taking over, change of political power, the 182 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 1: next administration didn't want to back the developer anymore. Anyway, 183 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 1: It's a long story, but that default just just shot 184 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 1: through the corporate bond market, yields on five year corporate 185 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 1: debt rising more than a hundred fifty basis points at 186 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: one point, uh liquidity drying up. And then there was 187 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 1: an insurance company that didn't call its perpetual bonds bottom line, 188 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: they were going to just pull back their refinancing of 189 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 1: the bonds, and that was another bang to the corporate 190 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 1: bond market, and that's created a big loss of confidence. 191 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: It has Koreans worried about investors continuing to want to 192 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: invest in their bond market. And it's not entirely settled yet, 193 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 1: but it also doesn't in a in a way at 194 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: harkins to what we saw in the UK, where suddenly 195 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 1: a market that's been stable doesn't seem to be a problem. 196 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 1: A lot of different things happened. Of course, it was 197 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: the the ill timed and ill designed package budget package 198 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,439 Speaker 1: that Liz Trust had for a while. Anyway, I digress 199 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 1: a bit, but it's that kind of a thing for 200 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: create seems to stable for now. But talking about the 201 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: Bank of Korea, it's another big reason to say, hey, 202 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 1: this is not time for a fifty basis point high. 203 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 1: So that's the corporate story. Then on the household side, 204 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 1: we know that debt levels are pretty high and viewed 205 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: as being maybe a little vulnerable, although I think Fitch 206 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 1: Ratings this week had a note said that that vulnerability 207 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,719 Speaker 1: can be managed. Rising interest rates and the way that 208 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 1: that correlates to mortgage rates in a different way than 209 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: it does in the States puts even greater pressure on 210 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 1: the households. In Korea, well, about eight of crean households 211 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 1: have adjustable rate debt, so I believe it was one 212 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: of the b Okay of ischials who said, so a 213 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: fifty basis point hike by the Bank of Korea is 214 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:07,079 Speaker 1: more like a seventy five basis point hike by someone 215 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 1: like the Federal Reserve. Remember most most Americans, or at 216 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 1: least many Americans, have thirty yor fixed rate mortgages, so 217 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 1: it's a big difference when your central bank starts raising rates. 218 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 1: So be okay. This week we also have the rb 219 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 1: n Z, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Right now, 220 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:24,160 Speaker 1: I think that the consensus is that we're going to 221 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 1: see a much weaker economy in New Zealand in three uh. 222 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:31,959 Speaker 1: It's really been struggling as many economies across the world 223 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 1: have been to come back to some degree of normalcy 224 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 1: after the pandemic. What do we know about the outlook 225 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:40,839 Speaker 1: for rate policy in New Zealand, Well, we know that 226 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 1: their inflation rates very high. It's continued to rise. It's 227 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 1: up to seven point two percent year over year. We 228 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 1: know that Adrian or, the Governor of the Reserve Bank 229 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 1: of New Zealand, is not afraid to do aggressive, bold 230 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:56,080 Speaker 1: moves because remember at the very beginning of the downturn globally, 231 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 1: when the pandemics started, they suddenly went from one percent 232 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 1: on their key rate seventy basis point down to zero 233 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 1: point to five. Who else was They were out front, 234 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: and they were out front on the way back up. 235 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 1: But I think now they're there. Rad hikes, they're they're 236 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,960 Speaker 1: aggressive tightening have been very effective in hitting the housing market. 237 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 1: There are high prices, the market was overheated, but and 238 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: that hasn't stopped them yet. And there are other parallels too, 239 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 1: when you look at the tightness of the labor market 240 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 1: in the face of higher interest rates. In the States, 241 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 1: the labor market is pretty pretty tight. Same is true 242 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 1: in Australia, even though the r b A has been 243 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 1: tightening the labor market. We just had in the last 244 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 1: week a shockingly strong employment number, double what the market 245 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 1: was forecasting. And in New Zealand, labor market conditions are 246 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 1: very tight. Although I think the expectation now is that 247 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 1: things will begin to loosen in the new year. Yes, 248 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 1: but is loosening enough. That's the thing. I think It's 249 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 1: all relative, isn't it. And that's another reason why Um, 250 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: some of these uh particually. I think developed nation central 251 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: banks or in this position where they can maybe slowed 252 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 1: down the pace of rate hikes, the size of rate 253 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: hikes for various reasons be okay, their corporate bond markets 254 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 1: still being in turmoil, still being tight. Um. The RBN said, 255 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 1: maybe figuring that the what the impact that they've had 256 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: on housing is is pretty what I want to say, significant. 257 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 1: But at the same time, the economies are holding up 258 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 1: and their inflation rates are still higher, well above target, 259 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 1: so the doors open to more hikes at this point, 260 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: just like the FED. The question isn't do they stop 261 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 1: yet or anything like that. It's just how big. The 262 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Global Economics and Policy Editor Kathleen Hayes. I'm Doug Krisner. 263 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 1: You can join us for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia beginning at 264 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: seven am in Hong Kong, six pm on Wall Street. 265 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: John Doug, thanks a lot, and just to have the 266 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 1: world cough a N. Cutter. I'm John Tucker is Bloomberg 267 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Getteractive Broker Studio in New York. 268 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven three oh to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, 269 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine 270 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: to the country Sirius XM Channel one nineteen to London 271 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: d A B Digital Radio, and around the globe the 272 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business apt in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is 273 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg day Break Weekend. I'm John Tucker in New York 274 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 1: with your global look ahead of the top stories for 275 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 1: investors in the coming week. Big weekend for Cutter and 276 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 1: for soccer fans with the World Cup for more. Let's 277 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: send to London and bring in Bloomberg day Break. Euro 278 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: Banker Caroline Hempger, John the Cutter World Cup is becoming 279 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: one of the most controversial sporting events in history. Cut 280 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: a country of three million people, won the vote to 281 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: host the tournament back in despite its scorching climate and 282 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: lack of footballing history. It's faced enormous critics is um 283 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 1: for its lack of freedom's mistreatment of migrant workers a 284 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 1: country where homosexuality is illegal. But Cutter has defended itself 285 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 1: against the sports washing accusations and the event could deliver 286 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 1: record revenue for organizers FIFA and a diplomatic dividend. Now. 287 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: FIFA's president Gianni Infantino says that the tournament and cut 288 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 1: Are can be used as a force for good. Football 289 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 1: and the World Cup are offering you and the world 290 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: a unique platform of unity and these all over the world. 291 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 1: So let's take this opportunity to where everything we can 292 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: to start something. An end to all conflicts, okay, an 293 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: enter all conflicts. So in Fantino also did as a 294 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: ceasefire in Ukraine for the month long World Cup. Well 295 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 1: for more. Joining me now is Bienberg, Simon and Foxman 296 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 1: in Doha and here in the London studio, David Hellier. 297 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 1: Welcome to both of you to discuss I mean, what 298 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: is a huge event in the footballing in the global 299 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,120 Speaker 1: sporting calendar. David, can I ask you first? I mean 300 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:09,920 Speaker 1: Cutter wanted a global platform through football. It really has one. 301 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,439 Speaker 1: What do you think this World Cup is going to 302 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: be like? Well, I mean, obviously the jury is out 303 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 1: on this, um. I mean the build up has been 304 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 1: unremitting lye uh you know negative in terms of criticisms 305 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 1: of of of the country and it's it's sort of 306 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 1: treatment the migrant workers and uh LGBT rights, um, all 307 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:40,479 Speaker 1: that kind of thing. Um. But on the from on 308 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: the on on the other side, you know, a number 309 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,959 Speaker 1: of stadiums have been built that look amazing. Uh. There 310 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 1: would have been a you know, a great rebuilding the 311 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 1: infrastructure of guitar. So from that point of view, it 312 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:59,679 Speaker 1: leaves a useful legacy for the country. Um. But we 313 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: really I don't think we've really seen anything quite like 314 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: this before. The clash of cultures and it really, you know, 315 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:14,400 Speaker 1: it really will depend on how uh you know, how 316 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:19,159 Speaker 1: they mix, um, And so we wait and see. I 317 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: guess yeah, and I know of course, because hey, you 318 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 1: are a huge football fan. Also you write a great 319 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,440 Speaker 1: deal about the business of sports and you're going to 320 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 1: be in Cutter to actually see some of the footballing 321 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:35,360 Speaker 1: action and simone in Doha. I mean, this is this 322 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:39,479 Speaker 1: is it isn't it? It's Western footballing countries kind of 323 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 1: outrage that cut off for all the reasons that I mentioned, 324 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: is actually hosting the event. What are the Qataris see? 325 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 1: How do they see it? You know, I think there's 326 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: a degree of surprise that some of the criticism has 327 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,199 Speaker 1: gone on for so long. Mind you, it's not just 328 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 1: about human rights where or migrant rights, or the rights 329 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:07,440 Speaker 1: of minorities, including LGBT people, but it's also remember think 330 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 1: back to um the early twenty tens when there were 331 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 1: all these swirling controversies around corruption. You know, Cutter is 332 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 1: thought to have won this bid to host the World Cup, 333 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:23,400 Speaker 1: um maybe for unsavory reasons, as well as Russia eighteen. 334 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:26,720 Speaker 1: And I think particularly in the UK, you know, fans 335 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:31,120 Speaker 1: haven't really forgotten about that. Here on the ground, though, 336 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 1: you know, the attitude has changed a little bit. I 337 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:39,120 Speaker 1: think there was some openness to labor reforms. Certainly the 338 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 1: expose as that came out painted a very dire picture 339 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,400 Speaker 1: of what life is like for the lowest income workers. 340 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 1: But this campaign has been unrelenting, and recently Mohammad Athani, 341 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 1: the ruling emir, talked about this as an unprecedented campaign 342 00:19:56,280 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 1: against the country for reasons that may not be um. 343 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,880 Speaker 1: I guess I'm just may not be so justified. And 344 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:05,919 Speaker 1: so we've sort of seen that kind of evolved a 345 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: bit more resistance. Okay, so football, but also much beyond 346 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 1: football as we look ahead to the World Cup two. 347 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:16,360 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for being with me, blom Big 348 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 1: Simone Foxman in Doha and David Helliot in London. Of 349 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 1: course they'll be at some of the matches in cutter 350 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 1: and I'm callin Heger here in London. You can catch 351 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,719 Speaker 1: me every weekday morning for bloom Bag Daybreak. That's beginning 352 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 1: at six am in London, one am on Wall Street, 353 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 1: John Caroline, thanks alone just to hear on Bloomberg Daybreak 354 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 1: weekend the battle lines already being drawn for the four 355 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 1: presidential race. I'm John Tucker. Emptis Bloomberg. This agains Bloomberg 356 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 1: Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead of the top stories 357 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: for investors in the coming week. I'm John Tucker in 358 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 1: New York. A lot of uncertain among Republicans and some 359 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,359 Speaker 1: level of uncertain among Democrats as well as we start 360 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 1: to set up now for the presidential race. More. Let's 361 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 1: into our Bloomberg ninety one one newsroom in Washington and 362 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,159 Speaker 1: Amy Morris Amy, all right, thank you, John. One of 363 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,440 Speaker 1: the biggest question marks hanging over the GOP right now 364 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: after the midterms. What comes next for the GOP and 365 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 1: Donald Trump? Who want to take a deeper look at 366 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 1: this with Bloomberg editor Megan Crane. Megan, thank you for 367 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,400 Speaker 1: taking the time with us today. Oh, thanks for having me. Now, 368 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 1: Donald Trump announced his own plans to run for president 369 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 1: again from his Moral Lago estate in Florida, in order 370 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 1: to make America grated glorious again. I am tonight announcing 371 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: my candidacy for president of the United States. Now. He 372 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: seemed a bit muted during that announcement compared to the 373 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 1: last time he ran Megan, what's your thoughts? Um. You 374 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,159 Speaker 1: know a lot of people have said that the announcement 375 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 1: sounded more uh muted is the right word, yeah, sort 376 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 1: of a less energetic. Um. He did say that he's 377 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: hoping to recapture the underdog spirit of UM a smaller, 378 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 1: scrappier campaign apparatus than he had in Um. You know, 379 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 1: it's harder to make an announcement in front of a 380 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:17,919 Speaker 1: room full of your friends at Mara Lego than it 381 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 1: is in front of a crowd of supporters, you know, 382 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,119 Speaker 1: sort of out in the country somewhere. But you know, 383 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 1: it sort of remains to be seen whether he's able 384 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 1: to recapture that energy. Now Here's what fellow Republican New 385 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: Hampshire Governor Chris Sunew had to say, Uh, the same time, 386 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: at the night that the former president was announcing, the 387 00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:38,879 Speaker 1: political atmosphere today will be a hundred eighty degrees different 388 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 1: six months from now, eighty degrees six months after that, 389 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 1: and then we'll get to June of twenty four and 390 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,439 Speaker 1: we'll we'll see where we are there. It's gonna go 391 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:48,720 Speaker 1: up and down and in and out. We are so 392 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: far away from all of it. So that's why I 393 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:51,919 Speaker 1: say it's going to be kind of an up and 394 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:53,920 Speaker 1: down wild right. Enjoy the show because we are so 395 00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: far whatever whatever announcements may or may not be happening tonight, 396 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: Uh right, that nobody is going to care. That was 397 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: New Hampshire Governor Christannu Knew speaking there at the Republican 398 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 1: Governor's Conference. And I guess what I want to know 399 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 1: about that, Megan, is are we starting to see a 400 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 1: shift or a rift? Are we starting to see a 401 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 1: split within the Republican Party or is the party going 402 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:24,159 Speaker 1: back to the more conservative, traditional type Republican Party that 403 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 1: we we may have grown up with in the seventies 404 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: and eighties. Where are we seeing? Sure, Well, that's a 405 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: really good question, and I think a lot of people 406 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,879 Speaker 1: in Washington would love to know the answer. Um. You know, 407 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: Josh Holly, Senator Josh Holly's said that the mid terms 408 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: had been a funeral for the Republican Party as we've 409 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 1: seen it in the recent you know, in recent years. 410 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: So a funeral for the Trump Republican Party. Yeah, I 411 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,440 Speaker 1: suppose you know, yeah, that would be what he meant 412 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 1: to say. Sure, but the traditional Republicans weren't supporting supportive 413 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:57,199 Speaker 1: of Trump in sixteen either, So, uh, you know that 414 00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 1: riff isn't really new, Um, and we've seen this show before. 415 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 1: Trump is a force to be reckoned with, and I 416 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: don't know that they can just turn the page on 417 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 1: him so quickly. But it's not just the politicals, right, 418 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 1: it's also those wealthy conservatives who are starting to turn 419 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 1: their backs on him. You actually have been reporting on 420 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 1: that on the Bloomberg terminal. Um Ken Griffin, founder and 421 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: CEO at the hedge fund Citadel, actually put it this way. 422 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:27,639 Speaker 1: He lost, We lost Georgia because of his behavior in 423 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 1: the Senate race. In that's a second loss. And then 424 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:34,160 Speaker 1: this year the Republicans lost the Senate because the Trump 425 00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,880 Speaker 1: back candidates in the Senate races were rejected by American voters. 426 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,880 Speaker 1: That's a three time loser. And I'd like to think 427 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 1: that the Republican Party is ready to move on from 428 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,159 Speaker 1: somebody who's been for this party a three time loser. 429 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:48,919 Speaker 1: It's important to note here that Griffin is also very 430 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 1: heavily invested in Florida. He's openly supporting a possible run 431 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:57,199 Speaker 1: for president by Governor De Santis in Florida, but also 432 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 1: calling the former president a loser. I would think, really stings. 433 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 1: That is a word that for Donald Trump is a 434 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: naughty word. Yeah, it's like the ultimate insults. Isn't Trump right? Um? 435 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,880 Speaker 1: A three time loser? He's not alone in saying that 436 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: he won't support Trump going forward. Uh. Stephen Schwartzman came 437 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:18,479 Speaker 1: out with a statement saying he would not be supporting 438 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 1: Trump's run and then he was really looking to a 439 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,440 Speaker 1: new generation. He did not specifically speak to de Santis, 440 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,479 Speaker 1: but that's sort of, you know, somewhat coded that we 441 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,199 Speaker 1: talked about de Santis when we talked about a new 442 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:35,359 Speaker 1: generation of Republicans. Um importantly, though, those big or i'm sorry, 443 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 1: deep pocketed Republicans didn't give to Trump before either, and 444 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 1: you know, they didn't support him early on in his candidacy, 445 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:48,399 Speaker 1: and he ran without that kind of money in so, uh, 446 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,160 Speaker 1: you know, it's impossible to know whether he's able to 447 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,520 Speaker 1: move on without him. Some people think that these big 448 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,240 Speaker 1: donors moving away from Trump is actually good for him 449 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,959 Speaker 1: because he it reinvigorates his image as sort of working 450 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 1: for the working class and the working man as opposed 451 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 1: to sort of being you know, tied to big business 452 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,679 Speaker 1: and big money and rich people. You know, that's an 453 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,159 Speaker 1: excellent point because it occurs to me he probably doesn't 454 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,720 Speaker 1: need the money. He hasn't need the money, has quite 455 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 1: the war chest he does. He has you know, lots 456 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 1: of money on hand that he can spend it. It 457 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:25,919 Speaker 1: gets more complicated how he can spend it now that 458 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 1: he's announced. But you know, he does have access to funds. 459 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:32,720 Speaker 1: I think the um the signal from people like Griffith 460 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:37,439 Speaker 1: and um Swordsman is basically it opens a lane for 461 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 1: other people. If you're Rhonda Santis, you're Glenn yuncan it 462 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 1: sort of lets it be known that there's money out 463 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,520 Speaker 1: there for them. It's not as important that they're worth 464 00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,040 Speaker 1: holding from Trump, that they're making it available to other people. 465 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 1: Right that That exactly what I was going to ask 466 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:52,680 Speaker 1: you about next. If it opens up that lane, and 467 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,880 Speaker 1: if it also opens a lane for other big ticket donors, 468 00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:01,359 Speaker 1: big heavy donors, to sort of be empowered or be 469 00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,040 Speaker 1: emboldened to say, oh, you know what, we're gonna throw 470 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,920 Speaker 1: our money behind this other candidate as well. For sure. 471 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,679 Speaker 1: I mean these aren't necessarily people who you would say 472 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,960 Speaker 1: follow the leader so much, but it is a little 473 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 1: bit of that. Right. You know, when the tide turns, 474 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,840 Speaker 1: people people don't like throwing good money after bad, so 475 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,160 Speaker 1: you know they'll be sort of looking to see who 476 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,560 Speaker 1: people are supporting, where the money is going, and where 477 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 1: that's often where they'll put their dollars. Did it surprise 478 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 1: you when the president's daughter, Ivanka Trump stood up and 479 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 1: said I'm not going to be a part of this 480 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:35,919 Speaker 1: one and enjoy good luck. But I'm out right, Um, 481 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,280 Speaker 1: did it surprise me? Is not really? She's been signaling 482 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,199 Speaker 1: for a while that she was pretty done with politics. 483 00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:46,160 Speaker 1: It maybe wasn't as fun as she had expected fun. 484 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 1: You know, it's not that glamorous. Policy work is actually 485 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,240 Speaker 1: harder than sometimes people maybe expect. I think that she 486 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 1: and her husband took a lot of criticism for taking 487 00:27:55,800 --> 00:28:00,080 Speaker 1: jobs in the White House, Um, and that maybe so 488 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 1: you know, they've been there and done that. Maybe you know, 489 00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,880 Speaker 1: it's time for their family to move on. So then 490 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 1: what's the next step for Donald Trump? You know, I 491 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,879 Speaker 1: think that Trump doesn't want his legacy to be ending 492 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 1: on a loss, right, and so he has one way 493 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,160 Speaker 1: to change that, which is to try again. And he'll 494 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 1: do that if he can. You know, what sort of 495 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:26,000 Speaker 1: remains to be seen whether he can marshal the energy 496 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:29,440 Speaker 1: that he needs personally and also among his supporters. But 497 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,920 Speaker 1: you know, he is the leading candidate for the Republican 498 00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,960 Speaker 1: nomination by a lot. Like people are talking about Rhonda Santis, 499 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,960 Speaker 1: but those poles showed to Santis, you know, sort of 500 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 1: like early who would you prefer to be the Republican nominee. 501 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,960 Speaker 1: Poles showed to Santis behind by like fifty percentage points. 502 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 1: It's not you know, it's not like running neck and neck. 503 00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,040 Speaker 1: It was like, you know, Trump a whole bunch of 504 00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,719 Speaker 1: space and then a few other people. So de Santis rises, 505 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 1: he won by a lot. You know, he's very popular 506 00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,240 Speaker 1: right now. But also that's a very dangerous play to 507 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 1: be Politics is a law as it's kind of dirty, 508 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,040 Speaker 1: long business. And the Washington Post had a story this 509 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 1: week about how the air of inevitability is sort of 510 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 1: a death sentence in politics. Um, I'm not certainly saying 511 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,520 Speaker 1: Rhonda Santis is not doing well and writing a wave 512 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 1: right now, but two years out, we've often talked about 513 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 1: a lot of frontrunners who are not who never became president. 514 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 1: A lot can happen, Yeah, Bush, you know it was inevitable. 515 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 1: John Edwards was you know, had inevitability. So you know, 516 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:31,920 Speaker 1: we can go way back to when you know that's 517 00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,360 Speaker 1: sort of a dangerous position to be in. It puts 518 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 1: a lot of targets on your back as well. And 519 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:39,239 Speaker 1: we are talking with Bloomberg editor Megan Crane about what 520 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,719 Speaker 1: comes next for the Republican Party and for Donald Trump. 521 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:46,240 Speaker 1: But let's also talk about Democrats to the mid terms 522 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 1: a huge win for President Biden in a way. The 523 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,000 Speaker 1: results are mixed though, but not as bad as they thought. 524 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 1: So a moral victory. I'm not sure how they would 525 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,240 Speaker 1: describe it. Certainly the Senate numbers are evidence of that. Um, 526 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 1: there's some questions about you know, Biden's age. There are 527 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 1: other questions that persist. But is there a way that 528 00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 1: the Democrats can take advantage of this? Yeah? So you know, 529 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 1: Joe Biden turns eighty on Sunday. Um, he is already 530 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 1: the oldest president and you know he would be eighty 531 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 1: two if he were reelected. That definitely. There's a lot 532 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 1: of talk about generational change in the Democratic Party right now. Um, 533 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 1: the House is led by three people in their eighties 534 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 1: right now? Is that just the Democrats? I mean the 535 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,440 Speaker 1: on both sides of the political aisle, you see a 536 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 1: lot of people who are in their seventies and EIGHTI yes, 537 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:46,520 Speaker 1: that's right. Donald Trump is seventy six. You know, there's definitely, UM, 538 00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 1: there seems to be a tied turning. Generational change is 539 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 1: sort of what you keep hearing people talk about. There 540 00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:55,520 Speaker 1: are lots of UM, Democrats, you know, who are decades 541 00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:59,240 Speaker 1: younger than the president, who are looking looking to the future, 542 00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 1: looking to be the future of the party. Um Weather, 543 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 1: But you know, right now Biden is the president, which 544 00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 1: is of course an incredibly powerful place to be. It's 545 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,360 Speaker 1: a you know, um, it's a he would be a 546 00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,560 Speaker 1: natural front runner. Bloomberg Editor Megan Crane, thank you very 547 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,640 Speaker 1: much for taking the time with us. And that is 548 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 1: what is going on in the nation's capital. For more 549 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 1: of our political news coverage, tune into Balance of Power 550 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 1: with David Weston weekdays at noon Wall Street Time, and 551 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,160 Speaker 1: Sound On with Joe Matthew week days at five pm 552 00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,400 Speaker 1: Wall Street Time. Here on Bloomberg Radio, I'm Amy Morris 553 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:33,600 Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg John. Amy Morris reporting from our 554 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:38,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg in Washington. Thanks a lot, Amy, and that does 555 00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 1: it for this additional Bloomberg day Break weekend. Join us 556 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,360 Speaker 1: again Monday morning at five again Wall Street Time, for 557 00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:47,160 Speaker 1: the latest on markets overseas, at the news you need 558 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 1: to start your day. I'm John Tucker and this is 559 00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:50,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg