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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go fifteen, twenty, twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, forty forty five fifty and the.

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Speaker 3: Kicks Block Look College Football World, Stanger, Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 4: It stumble the football, the lateral turn a counter on

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Speaker 4: the side, get you the lad table off the field

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Speaker 4: to night. It's not the sage of the game in

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Speaker 4: the fight, it's.

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Speaker 2: The sage of the fight. What's up, the general nation?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Act Network Podcast. This is the week

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Speaker 2: thirteen college football betting preview Thanksgiving Special. I'm Stucky in

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Speaker 2: with me as always is Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers. We're thankful for you.

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Speaker 2: Ready to dig into some winners and then some turkey.

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Speaker 4: You sent out a message over company slack. You said,

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Speaker 4: I was looking at a game between two universities against

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Speaker 4: each other, and I was looking at their I was

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Speaker 4: supposed to be handicapping their college basketball, but I was

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Speaker 4: handicapping their college football. So then I started going through

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Speaker 4: the list of college basketball games to see which one

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Speaker 4: it could have been. But Yeah, this is it. We've

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Speaker 4: been waiting for this. I mean, you think of the

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Speaker 4: Aussi footy, you think of the ping pong, the darts,

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Speaker 4: all the shit we had to go through at the

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Speaker 4: beginning of the pandemic, and now we have a weekend

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Speaker 4: full of everything. I mean, yeah, MLB's coming gone, but yeah,

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Speaker 4: we've got it. All the football, all the basketball, it's

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Speaker 4: all here. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: No, it wasn't an actual college basketball game. I had

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Speaker 2: written down in my notes North Carolina Notre Dame, and

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Speaker 2: I guess I've been doing college basketball week in North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: Triggered basketball to me, So I just started taking notes

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Speaker 2: of North Carolina versus Notre Dame basketball and what that

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Speaker 2: matchup would be. Like, what am I doing with my life?

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Speaker 2: All right, we have a lot to get to. But

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Speaker 2: before we get into some of the games, some of

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Speaker 2: the Marquee games, and we'll get to Friday and Saturday.

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Speaker 2: The college ball playoff rankings came out today. Bama one,

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Speaker 2: Notre Dame two, Clemson three, Ohio State four, Texas A

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Speaker 2: and M five, Florida six, Sincey seven, Northwestern eight, and

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Speaker 2: then who cares p Yu down at fourteen? Sorry b

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Speaker 2: Uyu sincey, look, UNC beats Notre Dame this week, BAMA

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Speaker 2: wins out and beats Florida, Texas A and M might

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Speaker 2: stay at it. Cincy, I don't know, because I was thinking,

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Speaker 2: like Ken, since he get there, do I want to

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Speaker 2: take it just a fun flyer? And then the other

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Speaker 2: thing is like if Florida beats Bama, I think they

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Speaker 2: would jump Texas A and M, even though Texas A

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Speaker 2: and M beat Florida. A lot of interesting scenarios. What

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Speaker 2: do you what are you just your takeaways from the

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Speaker 2: first as well playoff rankings and is there like someone

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Speaker 2: you would take a flyer or some scenario that you're

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Speaker 2: rooting for.

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Speaker 4: I was actually, you know, now that I've stepped a

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Speaker 4: couple hours away, you know, back from the initial rankings,

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Speaker 4: I realized that I initially was pessimistic about Texas A

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Speaker 4: and M making it at five, and I was optimistic

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Speaker 4: about Cincinnati at seven. And my theory was that Cincinnati,

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Speaker 4: you know, is we'll talk about this, probably gonna wax

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Speaker 4: Temple this weekend. They have a week off if they

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Speaker 4: can want to schedule somebody, and if they don't, there's

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Speaker 4: still probably a Tulsa game out there. Where they can

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Speaker 4: wax a team that's already in the College Football playoff ranking.

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Speaker 4: If they can wax them, maybe there's a scenario. But

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Speaker 4: you know, you're gonna have to have the Pac twelve

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Speaker 4: knock itself out, you know, Notre Dame take a couple

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Speaker 4: of losses or Clemson take another loss. Some spots are

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Speaker 4: gonna have to open up. So I don't know how

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Speaker 4: it is that I feel pessimistic about A and M.

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Speaker 4: I feel optimistic about Cincinnati.

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Speaker 2: Yeah that was by this thought too, but it's tech,

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Speaker 2: I mean texting. Have also could lose at Auburn. That's

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Speaker 2: not out of the realm of possibilities. I mean, they'll

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Speaker 2: be a favor, but yeah, we won't get too deep

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Speaker 2: into it. I might just throw fifty bucks on like Cincy,

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Speaker 2: what do they can be fined seventy to one, seventy

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Speaker 2: five to one out there, just for the fun of it.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk more about that as the season goes on.

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Speaker 2: Every weekend, something's gonna happen, and then the picture will

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Speaker 2: open up and get a little clear.

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Speaker 4: In years past, we used to be able to predict

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Speaker 4: what the quarterfinal was. The a CC Championship was a

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Speaker 4: quarterfinal the SEC was a quarterfinal. There's no such thing anymore.

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Speaker 4: Now we're scheduling games on the fly. You and I

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Speaker 4: are trying to put this podcast together, and lo and behold,

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Speaker 4: Utah and Washington are playing. There could be a cancelation

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Speaker 4: tomorrow in a you know, a rebranding of a game.

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Speaker 4: Like it's so wide open. We can't even tell you

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Speaker 4: if you beat Team A, you're gonna face Team B

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Speaker 4: to get into the playoff. We can't even say that

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Speaker 4: because things were changing so fast.

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Speaker 2: Yep, all right, let's get into our marquee games of

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Speaker 2: the weekend.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups we'll all end up betting for week thirteen.

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Speaker 2: All right, our first marquee game of the weekend, we're

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Speaker 2: gonna start in the Big Twelve noon on ABC New

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Speaker 2: Eastern and ABC. Iowa State is a one and a

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Speaker 2: half point underdog at Texas over under fifty six and

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Speaker 2: a half. The sage and the blue, this line purview.

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Speaker 2: This game will most likely decide who's gonna play in

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Speaker 2: the Big twelve Championship. I like Iowa State here. Look,

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Speaker 2: Texas is doing something's better mainly defending the run, which

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Speaker 2: is will be a little important here. They shut down Hubbard,

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Speaker 2: they shut down West Virginia's rushing attack. You know, we

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Speaker 2: know about Asia Overshown's playing better. Their safety play has

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Speaker 2: been better. But the offense, you know, their rushing attack

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Speaker 2: to has been better as well with Robinson, but their

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Speaker 2: corners have been so bad. And Ellender just isn't playing

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Speaker 2: that well. I mean he's completing what fifty three percent

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Speaker 2: of his passes over the past three games. There's been

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Speaker 2: some injuries at receiver. But you look, I mean, Iowa

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Speaker 2: State better offense, better defense. I have them ranked better

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Speaker 2: in both phases where Texas has struggled this year, you know,

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Speaker 2: defending pass efficiency, that's what I always stay can really take

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Speaker 2: advantage of. So I think they're gonna be able to

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Speaker 2: efficiently move the ball with our boy Broctober October in November,

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Speaker 2: and I think I would state it as the better

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Speaker 2: overall defense, and the Texas offense is just struggling, especially

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Speaker 2: through the air. I like the Clones here. I make

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Speaker 2: them a favorite, so I'll gladly take the one in

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Speaker 2: that points. What do you see here?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree, I make them a two and a

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Speaker 4: half point favorite, so it's a really tight window. I

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Speaker 4: expect a number of bet mgm that is minus one

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Speaker 4: and a half on Texas. I expect that to probably

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Speaker 4: flip to the other side by the time we get

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Speaker 4: around to kick, you know, so trying to take a

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Speaker 4: side on this one, I haven't actually laid any money

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Speaker 4: on the side, but I did take a little bit

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Speaker 4: on the total, and that was going on the over. Now,

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Speaker 4: Initially I thought, you know, the weather's twenty five percent

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Speaker 4: chance rain tim mo on our wins, and you know,

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Speaker 4: with their stadium orientation, it's going to blow sideline to sideline,

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Speaker 4: So you know, some special teams could get involved here,

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Speaker 4: but I expect points. Texas is twelfth in the nation

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Speaker 4: in pace, their little tempo wrinkle thing that they came

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Speaker 4: out with earlier this year. Their top forty in pass explosiveness,

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Speaker 4: and they you know, they may be able to get

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Speaker 4: something down the field. And you know, beyond Robinson is

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Speaker 4: averaging you know, four yards after he's had contact, and

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Speaker 4: so that's just a pretty that's pretty standard for some

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Speaker 4: of the workhorses in college football. And you know, if

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Speaker 4: you look at the strength of the Texas d it's

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Speaker 4: stopping the run. That's not what Iowa State it's going

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Speaker 4: to do. It's gonna be a lot of brock Pretty

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Speaker 4: passing attempts, and pretty should have a pretty clean game.

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Speaker 4: Texas is one hundred and seventh and sacrate. Both teams

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Speaker 4: are top twenty and finishing drives on offense. I expect points.

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Speaker 4: I don't think it's gonna be a whole deal greater

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Speaker 4: than the post of fifty seven, but that's definitely the

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Speaker 4: number I'm buying over.

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Speaker 2: I think it'll be a close game, but I trust

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Speaker 2: the Iowa State offense a bit more and they're passing

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Speaker 2: defense as well. I think they're just a much better

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Speaker 2: coverage team. So give me party over Ellinger and the

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Speaker 2: Iowa State defense and Matt Campbell as a dog here.

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Speaker 2: I think Iowa State wins. They're playing very good football

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Speaker 2: out of defense is rolling coming off a shutout of

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Speaker 2: Kansas State forty five nothing, So I think the Clones

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Speaker 2: win and every twelfth title.

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Speaker 4: Are we singing happy trails to Tom Herman? After this?

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Speaker 4: Can we can we okay cool him out the door?

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Speaker 2: Yes? Because he finishes the year at Kansas State, so

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Speaker 2: that's not going to do anything to stay them.

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Speaker 5: We are not in a point in our program where

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Speaker 5: we can not play our best and expect to win.

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Speaker 2: It's it's not gonna happen. Let's move on to our

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Speaker 2: second marquee game of the day, and this one is

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Speaker 2: an exciting one. Number two. Notre Dame is a five

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Speaker 2: and a half point favorite at bet NGM at North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: This game is on Friday afternoon, Baby Friday, three point

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Speaker 2: thirty Eastern on ABC over under sixty seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'll tell you that I did play the over sixty six.

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Speaker 2: If you follow me on the app, I make this

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Speaker 2: about seventy. I think Notre Dame is vulnerable down the

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Speaker 2: field and you can attack them with explosive places. It's

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Speaker 2: something that Clemson's like scratched the surface of. But they

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Speaker 2: just didn't let DJ you throw it down the field.

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Speaker 2: The times that he did, he had so much success,

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Speaker 2: but they just kept trying to run traves etm. By

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Speaker 2: the way, why can't Clemson run the ball this year?

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Speaker 2: But Notre Dame just stuff the bucks. But I think

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Speaker 2: they're vulnerable down the field, and that's I mean, you

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Speaker 2: want to talk about explosive offense, that's what UNC is

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Speaker 2: so I think they're gonna hit some explosive place here.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna get many stops. So I

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Speaker 2: think this game is a shootout, back and forth. I

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Speaker 2: think North Carolina is going to have a shot to

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Speaker 2: win it. I make a line four, maybe a little

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Speaker 2: under four. This UNC offense is a top five offense

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Speaker 2: in the country. The names a top ten offense in

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Speaker 2: the country. The UNC defenses there's so many holes. The

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Speaker 2: defensive line is just dreadful too. So it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: tough for them to get stops. But I think they

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Speaker 2: can keep up and waiting to see how high this

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Speaker 2: line can get. Love to get six or seven. If not,

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Speaker 2: I might throw them in Round robin. But I lean

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Speaker 2: you and see, I've already played the over sixty six.

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Speaker 2: I make it seventy. What are your thoughts here?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, over in North Carolina? Here for me, I haven't.

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Speaker 4: I haven't got a piece of the over yet. But uh,

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Speaker 4: you know something, I'm definitely I don't see how you

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Speaker 4: can take an under in this matchup, and frankly with

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Speaker 4: Notre Dame, I think the victory. Can I say that

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Speaker 4: they're overrated from the victory against Clemson? I mean, it

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Speaker 4: was on their home field, and Clemson was missing their

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Speaker 4: most important pieces in the middle of the defense, their

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Speaker 4: best defensive line when was out in the first half.

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Speaker 4: You know, they had hid what the playbook was going

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Speaker 4: to be the entire season. So it took Venables a

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Speaker 4: little while to get used to that. I know they

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Speaker 4: beat Clemson. I know that's a big deal. You know, still,

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Speaker 4: it was a quarterback change and the best players on

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Speaker 4: defense were missing. I think when there's a rematch between

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Speaker 4: Notre Dame mcclemson, you know, I think it's going to

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Speaker 4: go a different way. Notre Dame on defense ranks outside

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Speaker 4: the top seventy in both explosive categories against the run

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Speaker 4: in the pass, and North Carolina on offense is top

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Speaker 4: twenty five through the air and on the ground in explosiveness. Offensively,

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Speaker 4: the secondary just has way too many tackles. I mean

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Speaker 4: safety Sean Crawford alone, he has nine missed tackles. Both

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Speaker 4: starting corners Crawford and Kyle Hamilton, along with corner Nick

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Speaker 4: McLeod have been burned for fifty yard passing plays. Eleven

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Speaker 4: players on this team, on this defense have been burned

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Speaker 4: for for twenty yard passes. At least a minimum of

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Speaker 4: twenty yard passes. Listen, Davonte Williams is averaging eleven yards

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Speaker 4: after catch Ian book at their Notre Dame passing attack.

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Speaker 4: They just can't keep up with this. They can't keep

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Speaker 4: up with Sam Howe what he's going to do. And

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Speaker 4: that's the thing that worries me about taking North Carolina pregame,

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Speaker 4: which I did, is that they like to fall behind

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Speaker 4: and they like to play from behind. And you have

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Speaker 4: to think that Notre Dame wants this to be a grind.

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Speaker 4: At one hundred and three, their rank is one hundred

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Speaker 4: and third, and seconds per play tempo is not very fast,

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Speaker 4: and maybe they want to keep it that way as

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Speaker 4: a grind on the ground against a North Carolina defense

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Speaker 4: that is pretty suspect in the trench. But at the

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Speaker 4: same time, if North Carolina gets down by two scores,

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Speaker 4: it's time to go bombs away. And that's something you know.

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Speaker 4: Brian Kelly came out in his presser on Monday and

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Speaker 4: immediately started talking about the Glance route, the Glance Route,

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Speaker 4: the double RPO that Sam Howell runs, and the Glans route.

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Speaker 4: He was worried about it the second he rolled out

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Speaker 4: of bed on Monday morning and didn't even have his coffee.

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Speaker 4: So Notre Dame is nineteenth in line yards, UNCD is

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Speaker 4: one hundred and tenth. You know, the Irish can control

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Speaker 4: the trench. But like I said, if U and C

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Speaker 4: gets down, they're just going to go ape shit with

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Speaker 4: bombs over twenty five yards. I think North Carolina keeps

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Speaker 4: it within the number. I think they have a very

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Speaker 4: good chance of upsetting Notre Dame. I think splitting a

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Speaker 4: unit up in between playing a pregame and then playing

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Speaker 4: it live as a wise decision, especially if you want

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Speaker 4: to get over seven. I absolutely think this is upset

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Speaker 4: watch here, and I don't mind that because I don't

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Speaker 4: really feel like the ACC should get two teams into

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Speaker 4: the playoff. I would prefer that it was spread out

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Speaker 4: a little bit. If you give Notre Dame a loss here,

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Speaker 4: then them or Clemson are going to have to have

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Speaker 4: two losses and neither of them will make the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: So we'll see how that plays out. But I do

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Speaker 4: like North Carolina have a bit here.

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Speaker 2: In North Skoda has to get the book and sack

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Speaker 2: them a couple times maybe for it's to turn. That's

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Speaker 2: how they're gonna have to get a stop. They're decent

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Speaker 2: at getting to the quarterback, but they get no push.

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Speaker 2: They're outside of the top hundred and basically every metric.

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Speaker 2: They're just gonna get shoved around. You can just run

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Speaker 2: right down their throat, but that's how they're gonna have

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Speaker 2: to get a stop. I'll be on un see in

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Speaker 2: some former fashion, and I'm already on the over all. Right,

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Speaker 2: let's move on to our third marquee game of the day,

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Speaker 2: and let's go to the Pac twelve. Let's talk a

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Speaker 2: little Oregon State rivalry between the Ducks and the Beavers.

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Speaker 2: Last year, Oregon won this game twenty four to ten. Well,

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Speaker 2: that's right around where the spread is this week. Oregon

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Speaker 2: is at MGM, a thirteen and a half point favorite

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Speaker 2: over under sixty three and a half. I'll tell you

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Speaker 2: I took some Oregon State plus fourteen. I think you

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Speaker 2: might disagree with that on the number, but a lot

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Speaker 2: of this was just my eye test, and I've been

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Speaker 2: watching Oregon and some of the advanced metrics also agree

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Speaker 2: with me. And it makes sense. We're all of Oregon's

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Speaker 2: best players in the secondary opted out, like very good,

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Speaker 2: excellent defensive players that will play at the next level.

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Speaker 2: They all opted out and the defense has been awful,

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Speaker 2: awful every time I watched them. Yeah, they won thirty

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Speaker 2: five fourteen against Stafford. Stafford's quarterback and best receiver was

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Speaker 2: ruled out before the game. Stafford doesn't have a good offense,

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Speaker 2: but Washington State put up twenty nine against them. Last week,

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Speaker 2: UCLA put up thirty five. How many guys at UCLA

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Speaker 2: have out? They almost beat Oregon. This defense is not

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Speaker 2: good no matter where you look. I think that they're

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Speaker 2: close to outside the top one hundred in a lot

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Speaker 2: of statistics. The Oregon State defense also, is it very good.

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Speaker 2: I'll throw that out there. And the Oregon offense has

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Speaker 2: been good, but I think Oregon State will be able

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Speaker 2: to move the ball. I've downgraded the Oregon defense significantly.

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Speaker 2: So I see a tad bit of value with Oregon

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Speaker 2: State and the Beavers. Hopefully Jefferson can run wild. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I like the Beavers here. This Oregon State, this Oregon

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Speaker 2: defense is very suspect. Do you agree?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? Absolutely agree. I mean I make the game fifteen,

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Speaker 4: but I don't. I think you just throw that out

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Speaker 4: with Oregon.

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Speaker 2: Games right now.

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Speaker 4: I think anybody who's anybody is going to be able

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Speaker 4: to get the ball up and down the field against

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Speaker 4: Oregon right now. And it's funny when you look at

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Speaker 4: the matchup matrix that we publish out with our articles

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Speaker 4: and stuff. Each offense has an advantage over almost every

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Speaker 4: single stat category over the opposing defense in this game,

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Speaker 4: so I don't see either offense being stopped. Each team

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Speaker 4: ranks top six and rush success rate. Defensive rush success

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Speaker 4: rate is one hundred, nineteenth of Oregon State and eighty

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Speaker 4: first for Oregon. Jamar Jefferson for Oregon State is averaging

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Speaker 4: four yards of carry after contact. He is a stud.

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Speaker 4: He is all he has gained. He's the backbone of

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Speaker 4: that offense. And you know, they really should be utilizing

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Speaker 4: him more in standard downs, passing downs, Oregon's ninety third

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Speaker 4: and tackling. You really should be using Jamar Jefferson in

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Speaker 4: this game when Oregon is ninety third and tackling on

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Speaker 4: the other side with Oregon, Tyler Show's passing attack is

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Speaker 4: thirteenth and success rate and in explosiveness, Oregon State has

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Speaker 4: been given up chunks through the air. They rank outside

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Speaker 4: the top one hundred almost every single rushing category, from

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Speaker 4: line yards to power success. You know, the Beaver's rank

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Speaker 4: one hundred and sixteenth and sack rate, so that tells

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Speaker 4: you that Tyler Show is going to be able to

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Speaker 4: go up and down the field, have no pressure whatsoever.

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Speaker 4: And both teams are top twenty five in offensive finishing drives.

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Speaker 4: So all of this leads me to I should be

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Speaker 4: taking it over. As a matter of fact, I think this

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Speaker 4: is a rule of thumb with Oregon. You know, wake up,

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Speaker 4: get out of bed, and bet orgon overs. That was

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Speaker 4: something I bought out of last week against UCLA. I

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Speaker 4: got a little scared that, you know, Dorian Thompson Robinson

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Speaker 4: wasn't gonna be playing. Didn't matter. We still got into

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Speaker 4: the seventies. I think the over it can also be

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Speaker 4: helped by some sloppy special teams playing. Oregon is one

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Speaker 4: hundred and first in the nation, Oregon State is seventy six.

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Speaker 4: So we'll see how this plays out. But I don't

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Speaker 4: see a path for either team having a defensive stop

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Speaker 4: to decide this game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the one thing Oregon we speaker Mason, the one

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Speaker 2: thing Oregon has done well this year is limit pass exposiveness.

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Speaker 2: And that's that's just not part of Oregon stage game.

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Speaker 2: They run the ball and they short passes, and they've

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Speaker 2: been successful doing both of that. So yeah, it's a

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Speaker 2: very favorable matchup for both offenses. I would I agree

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Speaker 2: with you. I'm taking the fourteen because I think Oregon State,

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Speaker 2: I think Oregon's defense is just very bad and worse

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Speaker 2: than the market is assuming here, and I would agree

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Speaker 2: with you on the over all. Right, let's get to

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Speaker 2: the game. A lot of the U SCC folk have

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Speaker 2: pride been waiting for. We got to get to the

361
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Speaker 2: Iron Bowl. This is on three thirty eastern on CBS

362
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Speaker 2: SEC Country. You no longer have to suffer through Nevada

363
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Speaker 2: Mountain West matchup with San Diego State in your precious

364
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Speaker 2: three thirty eastern slot on CBS. We have the Iron

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Speaker 2: Bowl here.

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Speaker 4: What comes after October November?

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Speaker 2: Baby, Let's go war Ego Alabama at BEDMGM is a

368
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Speaker 2: twenty five point favorite. Line has jumped over twenty four.

369
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Speaker 2: Some questions about Auburn here that I think you'll get

370
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Speaker 2: into one who could potentially be out over under is

371
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,760
Speaker 2: jumped up to sixty two and a half. Remember last

372
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Speaker 2: year Auburn won this game forty eight forty five, so

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Speaker 2: there's some revenge in the air for Alabama. Alabama did

374
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Speaker 2: not get a chance to get their revenge over LSU,

375
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Speaker 2: so maybe they take out some of that anger that

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Speaker 2: they wanted to get out on Auburn. But they also

377
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Speaker 2: lost to last year. Alabama's offense has been rolling, the

378
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Speaker 2: defense has some holes. Can Auburn take advantage? I'm not sure.

379
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Speaker 2: We saw last year. Last week we faded Auburn against Tennessee.

380
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Speaker 2: Auburn did get the cover, they won thirty to seventeen,

381
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Speaker 2: but Tennessee, I'll played them. Tennessee had four hundred and

382
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Speaker 2: sixty four yards, Auburn at three hundred and eighty five,

383
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Speaker 2: Tennessee six point three yards per play Auburn's six yards

384
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Speaker 2: per play. Do you know what that means? That means

385
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Speaker 2: that Auburn, who could have been zero to five to

386
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Speaker 2: start the year and really could have easily lost that

387
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Speaker 2: game to Tennessee, has won Domino horts all year and

388
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Speaker 2: that was against LSU. And we've seen LSU lay some

389
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Speaker 2: eggs this year and they're obviously not a great team.

390
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Speaker 2: So if BAMA wants to name this and get their revenge,

391
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Speaker 2: I'm thinking that they might be able to because this

392
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Speaker 2: Auburn secondary. Look, they've been good at keeping things in

393
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Speaker 2: front of them, but no, I don't think anyone is

394
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Speaker 2: really going to stop Alabama exposedness and these corners, these

395
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,920
Speaker 2: young corners can't stick with Alabama's receivers in space. Here,

396
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Speaker 2: Alabama's offensive line should also dominate. So I'm starting to

397
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Speaker 2: look at Alabama here kind of sat I missed under

398
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Speaker 2: twenty four, But what do you see here?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I took Alabama early in the week. It was

400
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Speaker 4: something that was injury related plus just good old fashioned

401
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 4: Alabama ass whooping related on a higher level before we

402
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 4: dive into this game, I'm not positive who's going to

403
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 4: expose Alabama's defense on the ground. They have issues and

404
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 4: stuff r eight power success lineyards on defense, the way

405
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:38,639
Speaker 4: Florida runs their offense, what I'm seeing out of Ohio

406
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Speaker 4: State and their running game, and then whatever has happened

407
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Speaker 4: to Clemson and the rushing game. I don't know who's

408
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:46,120
Speaker 4: beating Alabama. That's a story for another day. But this

409
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,200
Speaker 4: is the team that should be the favorite for the

410
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Speaker 4: National championship as far as this game goes. The number

411
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,120
Speaker 4: is inflated, yes, but Auburn's going to be without both

412
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Speaker 4: their offensive tackles. They're both injured. They got injured and

413
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 4: against Tennessee, Tank biggs be injured, couldn't finish the Tennessee game.

414
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 4: He's questionable. The two offensive tackles, the right tackle and

415
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Speaker 4: Bonnix's blind side tackle. Everything that's come out of Malason

416
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 4: Monday Tuesday is that don't expect those tackles to play.

417
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Speaker 4: We'll be leaning on Austin Truxwell, Truxel. We expect Trucks

418
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 4: to get to play a tackle, and then Juco transfer

419
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Speaker 4: Brendon Coffee and everything's going to be fine because it's

420
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,479
Speaker 4: a next man of mentality. You may have that mentality, Malson,

421
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,400
Speaker 4: but if you look at the PFF grades for rush

422
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Speaker 4: blocking and pass blocking, it doesn't say that those are

423
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 4: who your starters are not even close. So it's a

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00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 4: huge loss for Auburn to lose both their tackles. And

425
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Speaker 4: if you know, throw on Tank Bigsby out of this,

426
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Speaker 4: he'd be the biggest loss of all in this game

427
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Speaker 4: because he's one of the best power runners in college football.

428
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Speaker 4: Of his five hundred and twenty seven rushing yards this season,

429
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Speaker 4: three hundred and fifty seven have come after contact. He

430
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,880
Speaker 4: just gets revved up once he gets touched. He's been

431
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 4: responsible for thirty five first downs on the team. I mean,

432
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:02,639
Speaker 4: even assume being full health by Auburn, just assume everybody

433
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 4: who's healthy, the tackles take bigsby Auburn has to deal

434
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 4: with Najia Harris. They have to deal with Najia Harris.

435
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 4: Auburn's one hundred and eighteenth in power success and one

436
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 4: hundred and sixteenth and stuff right on defense and going

437
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 4: against Alabama's offensive line that is top fifteen in every

438
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 4: single category. Let's just assume that the offensive line protects

439
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 4: Bo Knicks.

440
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 2: Bo nixt season.

441
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 4: Then full effect, Bama is now sixth in the nation

442
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 4: in past coverage. That is something we haven't had in

443
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 4: previous years. Previous years, you could take advantage of them,

444
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 4: of their injuries, of their youth, of their inexperience. We

445
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,199
Speaker 4: talk about Oregon being inexperienced in the secondary. That's how

446
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 4: we were talking about Alabama for a couple of years,

447
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 4: and we automatically wrote them off and said, we're not

448
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,239
Speaker 4: putting money on Alabama to win the national championship because they

449
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 4: can't defend the exposive pass. That's changed Alabama now is

450
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 4: one of the best coverage teams in the nation. That's

451
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 4: bad news for everybody else in college football. I think

452
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 4: this game could be exceptionally ugly. I took Alabama minus

453
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 4: twenty four earlier in the Yeah, it's way above my

454
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 4: projected of twenty and a half. But consider that Auburn

455
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 4: might be out with their offensive tackles and tank Bigsby.

456
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 4: This one was an easy play. Just lay it, let

457
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:10,479
Speaker 4: it go.

458
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 2: Maybe ETN that might be the only one. But I mean,

459
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 2: Clemson has some issues, which we'll we'll talk about at

460
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 2: some point over the next two weeks. But yeah, I mean,

461
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,879
Speaker 2: if you have Trevor Lawrence back in ETM, maybe he

462
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 2: can expose some of Bama's rush defense problems. And I

463
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 2: also don't think Ohio State, who's laying twenty eighth this week,

464
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 2: their secondary is not good enough. They're not going to

465
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 2: get enough stops. We talked about it on the POD.

466
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 2: I said, look, the three most important positions. They're single

467
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 2: high safety, hooker he's not been playing well. Wade and

468
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 2: Banks are not lockedown corners on the outside. If you

469
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 2: don't have that, this Ohio State defense is not going

470
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,679
Speaker 2: to get stops against the Bamas the Clemsons of the

471
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 2: world to win a national title. You agree with that? Oh?

472
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely? And I don't mean to get some of

473
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 4: the Northwestern alum all riled up and excited. But Northwestern

474
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 4: on their best defensive day can shut down Ohio State.

475
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 4: And I'm not saying they can put points up against him.

476
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 4: I've seen some weird shit happen this year. But listen,

477
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 4: I bridget Northwestern go to be eighteen nineteen point dog

478
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 4: Ohio State in that Big Ten championship game. But that's

479
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:13,639
Speaker 4: a live dog.

480
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:15,959
Speaker 2: All right. So yeah, we agree there that bright Bama

481
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:17,400
Speaker 2: and the over.

482
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 4: The over is gonna be tough because you're gonna need

483
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 4: Bo Nicks to do his part. And you just don't

484
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 4: know if Pete Goulding and Nick Saban, how.

485
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 2: Far the will you know? Well, Bama not put up

486
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 2: sixty three again this week. I see this is what

487
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 2: happened last week.

488
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 4: I thought Kentucky could stop explosive plays. They couldn't. Auburn

489
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 4: definitely cannot stop anything down in the trench. I think

490
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 4: Nick Saban loves getting coordinators and coaches fired at Auburn,

491
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 4: so we'll see. I listen, Saban's in scorched earth mode.

492
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 4: I don't know what's going on. I don't know if

493
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 4: it's we haven't won the national championship, we haven't been

494
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 4: mentioned for this, We get passed over for this. Kirby's

495
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 4: beaten me in recruiting. Saban is in a different mode

496
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 4: these days. The older he gets, the grouchery he gets,

497
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 4: the morey he's u He's pissed off all the time.

498
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 2: It's usually Steve takes his foot off the gas and

499
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 2: you can you can get Bama and you can fade

500
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 2: them in some of these spots, as you know, thirty

501
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 2: thirty five point favorites. But this year, I mean Missouri

502
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 2: covered in the first week against them when he took

503
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 2: the foot off the gas, and then he covered against

504
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:25,119
Speaker 2: a and m Ole miss hunk type, hung tight but easy,

505
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 2: cover against Georgia, cover against Tennessee, shut out Mississippi State

506
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 2: forty one nothing, and then blow out Kentucky. Yeah, you're right,

507
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 2: sports dart time with mister Satan.

508
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 6: Everybody's got such a high expectation for what our team

509
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 6: should be HI and it really sort of if you

510
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 6: want to know the truth about it, pisses me off

511
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 6: when I talk to people that have this expectation like

512
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 6: they're disappointed in the way we played. That's frustrating. You

513
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 6: want to talk about something that's frustrating. That's frustrating.

514
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 2: All right, Before we get into the best of the rest,

515
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 2: I do want to remind everyone and it's the holiday

516
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 2: season if you didn't know, and it's officially Wednesday, just

517
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 2: officially college basketball season. We'll eventually be having college basketball

518
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 2: podcast here, but since it is the holiday season, we

519
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 2: also have cinnamon rims on our drinks, Great Lakes, Christmas

520
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 2: l as some of the fridge. Right now, you've got

521
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 2: Bowl games on the horizon, we've got college basketball starting up,

522
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 2: as I said, and we've got the Action Network offering

523
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 2: its best price the year on pro subscription. A pro

524
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 2: subscription on Lot's the best version of the best gambling

525
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 2: app in the world. Go to Action network dot com

526
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 2: to become an Action that We're pro subscriber fifty percent

527
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,360
Speaker 2: off for forty nine to ninety nine. Receive a full

528
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Speaker 2: year of access to our best in class content, including

529
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 2: college football projections powered by myself and Colin Wilson, Pro

530
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 2: Systems picks, fantasy rankings from Sean Corner and Chris Raybond,

531
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 2: just a ton of stuff. I'll also have college basketball

532
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 2: projections up there eventually as well. And even if you're

533
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,919
Speaker 2: already a pro subscriber, just give it a gift. Find

534
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 2: my degenerate friend who sucks at betting and help them out.

535
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 2: Maybe someone who's still betting big ten unders, ten first

536
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 2: half unders like ourselves. Either way, don't wait. Half off

537
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 2: pricing won't last, so good to Action Network dot com

538
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 2: to get your pro subscription today. All right, let's get

539
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: into best of the rest. Let's start on Friday. Let's

540
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 2: let's talk Conference USA and check in on both of

541
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,719
Speaker 2: our friends. Let's first, let's check in first with UTSA.

542
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 2: Meet Me, Meet Me. They at BETAMGM are three and

543
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 2: a half point favorites at home against North Texas UTSA

544
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: six and four. It's a real team.

545
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 4: Thoughts on this game, Yeah, we love Sincere McCormick. We

546
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 4: know how great, how explosive he is. But it's funny

547
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 4: is the game that he didn't play and they still

548
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 4: ran up the score against UTEB. This is senior day

549
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 4: for UTSA, which is kind of funny because all of

550
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 4: those seniors are allowed to come back next year. So

551
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 4: there's twenty three players on the squad. We'll see if

552
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 4: they come back next year, but they're still treating it

553
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 4: as a senior day. North Texas finally got to play

554
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 4: after numerous COVID cancelations. They were a little rusty, they

555
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 4: felled to Rice ten to zero, and then they won

556
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,719
Speaker 4: the game twenty seven to seventeen. I think what's interesting

557
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 4: about North Texas's stat that kind of ran by me.

558
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 4: There's seventy six in the scorer differential in the first

559
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 4: quarters of North Texas games this season. Their opponents have

560
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 4: scored seventy six points and they've scored twenty four. You

561
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,120
Speaker 4: take out that Houston Baptist game where North Texas got

562
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,439
Speaker 4: up fourteen to zero, North Texas has been outscored seventy

563
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,679
Speaker 4: six to ten in the first quarter. There is a

564
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 4: serious issue with North Texas starting in games. Now. Luckily,

565
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 4: you're listening to a gambling podcast and we like to

566
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 4: have gambling deliverables. So here it is. You can take

567
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,040
Speaker 4: North Texas in this game, but you're gonna get a

568
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 4: better number. After fifteen minutes of play, this team has

569
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,719
Speaker 4: lost seventy six to ten in the first quarter. Probably

570
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 4: a good time to buy in on them. Get a

571
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 4: better number than what's being offered out there. Both teams

572
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 4: are outside the top one hundred and tackling. North Texas

573
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,120
Speaker 4: has pass explosiveness mismatch here since her McCormick gets to

574
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 4: a North Texas D that is seventy third against rushing explosiveness.

575
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 4: So both teams are going to be able to get

576
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 4: theirs in this game. North Texas is going to generate

577
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 4: a pass rush. I think that's going to be a

578
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 4: difference in the game. They do have a sacaratee of

579
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 4: twenty eighth per Football Outsiders, So I'm looking for North

580
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 4: Texas live here, particularly after the first half. I'm sorry,

581
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 4: after the first quarter when they've just been getting beat

582
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 4: like a drum. I think it's great to have time

583
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:27,719
Speaker 4: to take North Texas, who is alive. You know, they

584
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 4: are very much in this to win the division. It's

585
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 4: all that they could talk about. So I do like

586
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 4: North Texas here, but I would be cautious about a

587
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 4: pregame number on them.

588
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 3: I hope you're enjoying this great Action Network podcast. I

589
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 3: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

590
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 3: podcast network. Locked On as a daily podcast on your

591
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 3: favorite team.

592
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

593
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 2: on of the Dallas Matters.

594
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 4: Welcome everybody to the Lockdown Lakers podcast.

595
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 2: Let's Go.

596
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 3: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

597
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 3: know your team better than anyone and give you the

598
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 3: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

599
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 3: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your lockdown podcast.

600
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 2: And we better hear from our friends, our minor nation

601
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 2: friend and we haven't heard from in a while.

602
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: We're talking minor nation out in the West Dixons town

603
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 1: of l Past.

604
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 2: So picks up you tap is for eleven and a

605
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 2: half point dog at Rice over under forty four and

606
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 2: a half and that's that game sniff that. Do you

607
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 2: have any thoughts there?

608
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 5: Well?

609
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 4: Rice to get out to a lead against or Texas. Rice,

610
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 4: is you know, getting better on offense considering you know,

611
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 4: the head coach came as the offensive coordinator from Stanford.

612
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 4: It was a we want to pound you in the

613
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 4: face and grind the ball actually starting to get points

614
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 4: up on the board. I just don't think I could

615
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 4: take eleven and a half considering what UTEP plays is

616
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 4: a pace one of the slowest in the nation. That

617
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 4: makes that eleven and a half points, extremely valuable for

618
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 4: the underdog.

619
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 2: All Right, moving on to our independent friends. We already

620
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: talked Notre Dame u NC. We have to check in

621
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 2: with our liberty friends. Liberty Liberty.

622
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 4: Liberty.

623
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 2: Liberty is a thirty six and a half point favorite

624
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 2: at bet MGM over under fifty six and a half.

625
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 2: This game's on Friday at noon on ESPN three. UMSS stinks.

626
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 2: I can't find anything to do well. They're d line.

627
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 2: They have a couple of players on their defensive line

628
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 2: that have made some plays. That's it. That's literally all

629
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 2: I can say nice about New mass Try to find

630
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: something that's good about them. I think your churches that

631
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 2: they have some rush explosiveness. That's about it. Liberty, on

632
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 2: the other hand, is now eight and one because they

633
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 2: lost to NC State. The dream, the dreams of a

634
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 2: college fooall playoff appearance the outside dream, but there's State.

635
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: We're still dreams is over for Hugh Freezing Company. Do

636
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 2: they come out here and lay the wood against UMSS

637
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 2: or on a short week after that disappointing loss. Do

638
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 2: they come out a little flat? What do you see here?

639
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 4: You know? How about I get my handicapped and then I

640
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 4: see if you're going to take an UMass team to

641
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 4: the lover. So you know, I got some eyeballs on

642
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 4: U Mass against Florida Atlantic, which is very important because

643
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 4: JVM Posey is the new quarterbacks with Florida Atlantic. They're

644
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 4: running a zone read. They want him to get loose

645
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 4: and have explosive plays, and amazingly enough, U Mass was

646
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 4: able to shut a lot of that down. Now, Posey

647
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 4: did get his yards and he did have his explosive plays,

648
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 4: but for the most part, they dominated the trench in

649
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 4: that game. And you know, I just couldn't believe the

650
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 4: push that I was seeing out of U. Mass. So

651
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 4: sure enough, you go to the Advanced box score, twenty

652
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 4: seven of thirty eight rushing attempts by Florida Atlantic were

653
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 4: stuffed seventy one percent. You Mass stuffed Fau seventy one

654
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 4: percent of rushing attempts. The national average is thirty U

655
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 4: Mass more than double that. So maybe it's just easy

656
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 4: to stuff the Florida Atlantic rush. But that is a

657
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 4: pretty dynamic dual threat quarterback that they had running back

658
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 4: there that is capable of busting a seventy yarder at

659
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 4: any time. If you look over on the offensive side,

660
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 4: of the ball. That's where we get back to good

661
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 4: old fashioned UMass football. We talked about available yards and

662
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 4: how the national average, you know, sixty sixty percent is

663
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 4: really great. Alabama gets at least that against Ole Miss.

664
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 4: Alabama had ninety percent, getting anything like over forty percent

665
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 4: of your available yards, that's a good day. U Mass

666
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 4: gained twelve percent of available yards against FAU. I didn't

667
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 4: think that was actually possible. The national average is forty

668
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 4: four percent. U Mass got twelve percent. So the question

669
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 4: with this game is can the U Mass defense have

670
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 4: success that they had against Javan Posey and Florida Atlantic.

671
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 4: Can they translate that into Malik Willis and liberty and

672
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 4: the zonary that they run. Now, Malik Willis is coming

673
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 4: off of a three interception game, Uh, you know, just

674
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 4: forty four rushing yards for him against NC State. Who

675
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:40,959
Speaker 4: Hugh Frees went on to say, was, you know, the

676
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 4: healthiest they've been all season, toughest, most athletic defense we've

677
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 4: faced all season. UMass is one hundred and thirteenth in

678
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 4: pass coverage. I don't think Malik Willis is going to

679
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 4: have another three interception day. I'm not sure he could

680
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 4: tear U Mass up on the ground after what I

681
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 4: saw at FAU and JV and Posey. Now not to

682
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 4: say that you know Liberty is the same level of FAU.

683
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 4: I'm just saying that U Mass is showing signs of

684
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 4: life in the defensive trench eight in the nation and stuff,

685
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 4: right am? I reading that correctly. The minute men are

686
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 4: actually playing pretty well down low. Liberty will have plenty

687
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 4: of success for the air. But will they have a

688
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 4: letdown like you said after being undefeated? For me, I

689
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 4: think I prefer the under based on U Mass's offense

690
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 4: and their pace of play. We don't know if it's

691
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 4: going to be a hangover, if Hugh Freeze has got

692
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 4: his mind on other jobs or other things going on

693
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 4: outside the field. I'm not sure where we are with

694
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 4: letdown mode with Liberty, but I can guarantee you that

695
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 4: U Mass is going to have a hell of the

696
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 4: time getting a point on the board.

697
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 2: You mess what I was watching that game. I was

698
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 2: really impressed with their defensive line, really good. They made

699
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 2: a lot of a lot of plays. That's like the

700
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 2: one thing that's just stuck out, the only positive stuck

701
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 2: out for you mess me, the one thing that it

702
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 2: worries with me with Liberty. Here is is their special

703
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 2: teams like block punts, blocked field goals. You Mess had

704
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 2: a block punt for a safety against FAU. Liberty also

705
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 2: had that blocked field goal for votech that would have

706
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 2: cost in the game, but there was a time out.

707
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 2: So their special teams have been shaky. So maybe that's

708
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 2: how U Mass can score and then you know, you

709
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:15,240
Speaker 2: get a garbage touchdown. Maybe I'll play it, but I'm

710
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 2: not as confident as I was against FAU. Is this

711
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 2: the last U MASS game?

712
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 4: I'm sure they're always available to schedule against Cincinnati s

713
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 4: e Yu.

714
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 2: B Yu's probably going to play them any team any

715
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 2: time anywhere. Are they're gonna play U Mass did?

716
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 1: Yeah?

717
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:31,839
Speaker 2: By you did play U Mass last year too.

718
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 4: We just want you to know after we were ranked

719
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 4: fourteenth that we're not ducking anybody. We just want you

720
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 4: to know after we were ranked fourteenth that we're not

721
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:38,760
Speaker 4: ducking anybody.

722
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 2: That's by by you did play U Mass last year.

723
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,720
Speaker 2: They didn't cover those scumbags. I had them.

724
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 4: That was we took it under right. I believe I

725
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 4: took it under because I was convinced that b Yu

726
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 4: would have the fourth string quarterback in the second quarter,

727
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 4: which they did. It went over. We were we were

728
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:56,800
Speaker 4: on Mitt Romney's like eighth kid in that game.

729
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 2: I was forty nine to nothing at the half and

730
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 2: then you twenty four points in the second half. Good God, alright,

731
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 2: fuck unders. All right, let's move on to Saturday and

732
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 2: hit the ACC. We have a few games that are

733
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:19,240
Speaker 2: still on the board as of now. We talked about

734
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 2: UNC Syracuse catching fourteen and a half at home against

735
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 2: in these states, a dumpster fire Duke, Georgia Tech that

736
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 2: games a pick at Georgia Tech, UVA a nine point

737
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 2: favorite at Florida State. I don't know when rock Bottom

738
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:35,840
Speaker 2: comes for Florida State. The game that I want to

739
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 2: talk about here, because we haven't got to talk about

740
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 2: Clemson in a while, is pit at Clemson at bet

741
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 2: MGM right now. Pitt is a twenty four point underdog

742
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 2: over under fifty five and a half. I can't figure

743
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 2: out Pitt. I mean, they have a bunch of starters

744
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,879
Speaker 2: out they beat vaut Tech. I don't know. I can't

745
00:36:55,880 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 2: figure them out, so I don't even try. But this

746
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 2: Clemson dado is still talking shit in Florida State. I

747
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,760
Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, I don't even know where Clemson

748
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 2: stands here. They haven't played since November seventh, it's been

749
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 2: three weeks, and you look at some of their advanced metrics.

750
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:25,320
Speaker 2: There's concerns with Clemson's rush attack with Travis Etias the

751
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 2: best running back in college football, and some concern on defense.

752
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 2: Pitt grades out elite defensively, but then some days as stinkers.

753
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 2: Some days look great, their offense isn't very good. Well,

754
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,280
Speaker 2: I makes sense of this mess.

755
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:47,280
Speaker 4: It is a mess. I think it's funny how Dabo

756
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 4: has turned like full heel, like he is now a

757
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 4: bad guy in the college football world. Along with Dan Mullin.

758
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:56,280
Speaker 4: They've both done you know, complete stab in the backs,

759
00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 4: you know Seth Rowlins shield type w W shit, and

760
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 4: now we think Savan's a good guy. It's quite interesting

761
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 4: how college football has worked this year as far as

762
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:06,800
Speaker 4: this game goes. Yeah, Pitt won this game in twenty sixteen,

763
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:08,879
Speaker 4: but Dabo made the statement in his presser that it's

764
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 4: a completely different team from an offensive perspective. They're running

765
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 4: ten and eleven personnel. It's different than what beat him

766
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 4: in twenty sixteen. And I think it's interesting that Pitt

767
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 4: has scored in their last two games over forty points

768
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 4: both times. The issue with the Florida State game was

769
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 4: Florida State gave them a whole bunch of turnovers. So

770
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 4: that's what happens when you have a whole bunch of

771
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 4: turnovers and bad field position, teams are going to put

772
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 4: forty up on you. But what Pitt was able to

773
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 4: do last weekend, you know, with Kenny Pickett throwing for over,

774
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 4: you know, throwing fifty times four hundred yards and a

775
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 4: whole bunch of tds, not really the pit team that

776
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 4: I'm used to, you know, handicapping, you know. So Pitt

777
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,920
Speaker 4: is known defensively for leading the nation and tackles for loss.

778
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 4: That's something that the Clemson offensive line is going to

779
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 4: have to deal with. They're first in the nation in

780
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 4: defensive havoc. They're fourth in sacrate, they're sixteenth in defensive

781
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 4: finishing drives. They put forty seven on the board against

782
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 4: Virginia Tech offensively last week, and like I said, you know,

783
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:03,359
Speaker 4: Kenny Pickett is you know, not only is he throwing

784
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,840
Speaker 4: out of his mind, they tacked on three additional rushing

785
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 4: tds last last week, So you know, and there was

786
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 4: only a single turnover by Virginia Tech. We talked about

787
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,359
Speaker 4: Florida State hand on the ballgame. Virginia Tech only had

788
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 4: one turnover and resulted in three points. Amazingly enough, Clemson

789
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 4: has not played since the Notre Dame game, which now

790
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 4: feels like a year ago. Dabo stressed and his presser

791
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 4: that the tempo is what bothers him about Pitt, which

792
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 4: is crazy because Pitt is sixty first in tempo. But

793
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,240
Speaker 4: he's claiming that this is one of the faster teams

794
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 4: that he's faced this year. I think that is something

795
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,320
Speaker 4: maybe to keep your eyes on, especially with you know,

796
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 4: if he considers them to be fast, Clemson's actually thirty

797
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 4: fifth and seconds per play, so they're faster. I think

798
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 4: the thing that came down to it for me is

799
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 4: that Skalski is not in this week's depth chart. Neither

800
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 4: was wide receiver Frank Latson. They're still struggling with injuries,

801
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 4: especially in the linebacker unit. And if Kenny Pickett's going

802
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 4: to throw fifty times a game and he's going to

803
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,919
Speaker 4: throw for four hundred yards, then they're going to pick

804
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 4: on that linebacker corps, just like Notre Dame did just

805
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 4: like Ian Book did. Skowski's not there. He is their

806
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 4: best pass coverage defender. I know he's a linebacker, but

807
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,440
Speaker 4: he is great. It is the best pass coverage player

808
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 4: on the Clemson defense. I think Pitt's going to cover this.

809
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 4: I've got them at you know, power rated at seventeen.

810
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 4: It just checks all the boxes. The pit offense is

811
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 4: going to be able to get things done. The Pitt

812
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 4: defense is going to be able to get some stops.

813
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,799
Speaker 4: Clemson still got some injuries on defense. Trevor Lawrence is

814
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 4: gonna come back. Travis Etn needs to get you know,

815
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:29,799
Speaker 4: back in line. With the rushing game, I don't know

816
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:33,759
Speaker 4: what's going on with Clemson against explosive plays. Like I'm

817
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 4: not saying Pitt's gonna be able to expose that, but

818
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 4: Clemson is ninety sixth against rush explosiveness and their eighty

819
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 4: ninth against pass explosiveness. Like I don't I don't know

820
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 4: what's going on with that defense whatsoever. You would think

821
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 4: Venables would have had that figured out by now. So

822
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 4: you know, there's there's lots of things for Clemson to

823
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:51,320
Speaker 4: work on here. They're not a perfect team, and I

824
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 4: don't think they should be spotting twenty four points here.

825
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 4: I think they should be spot in more like seventeen.

826
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 2: All right, fair enough, Maybe I'll join you because I

827
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 2: can't figure out Pitt. All right, let's move on to

828
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 2: the Big Ten. We had Minnesota Wisconsin canceled. Wisconsin's officially

829
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,879
Speaker 2: eliminated from contention in the Big Ten because they won't

830
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 2: play enough games. They can't get to the Big Ten

831
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 2: title game. Let me ask you a question before we

832
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 2: get to some of these games. Do we have to

833
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 2: play Michigan State if it gets the fourteen?

834
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:15,280
Speaker 4: Yes?

835
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 2: Unbelievable at home against Northwestern over under forty one and

836
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 2: a half.

837
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 4: Look at Michigan State's defense. Their defense is not terrible.

838
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 4: I mean they can hang defensively. They have it in

839
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 4: the defensive numbers to keep it a low scoring game,

840
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 4: which may It's not that they can score enough to

841
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 4: keep up with the fourteen, it's that their defense can't.

842
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:39,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, Penn State Michigan before Yeah, I mean any can

843
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,359
Speaker 2: you people are gonna ask about it? What an other game?

844
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 2: Oh and five? Penn State plus two and a half

845
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 2: at Michigan over under fifty eight and a half. If

846
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 2: you've got into your head and you had to bet

847
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: a or do you bet it?

848
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 4: People are still watching these two teams. Oh the trigger,

849
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 4: I think, Yeah, I don't know. Let's just spin a

850
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 4: bottle and see what the lands on. I mean, at

851
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 4: least Penn State is still trying. They're terrible, but at

852
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 4: least are still trying. I mean, Sean Clifford's gonna come

853
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 4: in and give up four turnovers. Right, the Michigan secondary

854
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 4: is gonna get torched. Here's the script for the game.

855
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 4: And then it's probably gonna come down to James Franklin

856
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 4: fucking up a pat or a two point conversion because

857
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 4: he doesn't he can't read a chart. And Bodog Jim.

858
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 2: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers. Avoid it like the plague.

859
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 1: Let's check in with Bodog Jim.

860
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 4: Bodog Jim, who doesn't associate with gamblers is going to

861
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 4: screw it up because he doesn't know how to call

862
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 4: a game. He doesn't know how to coach a quarterback.

863
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:35,879
Speaker 4: He doesn't know how to call a game. So that's

864
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 4: how it's gonna end up. You know, got into the head.

865
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 2: I take them State. Here's an interesting game, Ohio State Illinois.

866
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 2: Because I can't figure the line move just it just

867
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,680
Speaker 2: this just confused me. Ohio State, Maybe you can explain

868
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 2: Ohio State at BEDMG is a twenty eight point favorite

869
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 2: at Illinois. We saw Ohio State hold on offenses. Look great,

870
00:42:56,480 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 2: defense has issues in the secondary. Annoy mean, while put

871
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 2: up forty one points somehow at Nebraska rock bottom, that's

872
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 2: your nation rock bottom. Four hundred and ninety total yards

873
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 2: for Illinois, it's six point four yards per play. I

874
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 2: don't know where the Peters came back, but I where

875
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 2: the fuck did that come from? Right? So, Ohio State's

876
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 2: Lange twenty eighty over under is ticked up to seventy

877
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 2: and a half. So maybe now we're supposed to assume

878
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 2: this Illinois offense is electric because here's the thing live

879
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 2: since the bord Lovely Smith's a dinosaur. He runs a

880
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 2: basic four to three cover two. If you could play

881
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:34,240
Speaker 2: any spread with a competent quarterback in talent and the outside,

882
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 2: what Ohio State does You're gonna score at will? Ohio

883
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 2: State should score at will in this game, and then

884
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 2: to normally, I would be like, all right, if a

885
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 2: lot of State's playing a team that they could score

886
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 2: at will on probably every possession you know, without flukey turnovers,

887
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:50,879
Speaker 2: then maybe I'll look over because I know Ohio State

888
00:43:50,880 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 2: has issues in their secondary, but Illinois is not the

889
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 2: team the passing to one of the worst passing teams

890
00:43:56,719 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 2: in the nation to expose that, and you can't really

891
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 2: run on Ohio State. So there is are we supposed

892
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 2: to just the two of Illinois is now an offensive

893
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 2: juggernaut at there last week and Peter's back because if not,

894
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 2: I'm like, how is this getting to seventy? Because Ohio State, well,

895
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,359
Speaker 2: I'm not a fan of their secondary. That's not really

896
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:16,720
Speaker 2: something Illinois can expose.

897
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 4: Right, No, No, they're one hundred ninth and pasting success.

898
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 2: Right.

899
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 4: I understand COVID has really taken a toll on this

900
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 4: Illinois team. Do we know the full strength of them?

901
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:25,880
Speaker 6: No?

902
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 4: But what is the ceiling for Illinois football? We don't

903
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:32,359
Speaker 4: really know on both sides of the ball. I will

904
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:37,840
Speaker 4: tell you this from a market watching perspective, this line reeks.

905
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,800
Speaker 4: It has dipped below twenty eight in a couple spots.

906
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 4: It shouldn't. There should be enough support for Ohio State

907
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 4: in the market. There is not. There is some strong

908
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 4: money out there back in Illinois. Now I look at

909
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:53,800
Speaker 4: their advanced stats, and I'm not sure how much I

910
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 4: can trust them because of how much COVID's been around. Right,

911
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 4: we talked about how.

912
00:44:57,239 --> 00:45:00,320
Speaker 2: Terrible they They've had four different quarterbacks.

913
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 4: Four different quarterbacks, the defensive line that was decimated, and

914
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 4: still somehow they rank fourteenth per PFF and grading and tackling,

915
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 4: but their success rate on defense against the rush and

916
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:15,399
Speaker 4: the passes outside the top one ten absolutely terrible. Their

917
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 4: passing success rate has been terrible. They have no explosiveness

918
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 4: in their past game. They do have a little bit

919
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 4: of ground explosiveness on their offense, but that's something that

920
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 4: Ohio State has been able to stop. I don't see

921
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 4: the advantage. The advantage I see is special teams. Ohio

922
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:35,320
Speaker 4: States bottom fifteen team in the nation and special teams.

923
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 4: Is that enough to get this spread over? I don't know.

924
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 4: I can tell you right now, even though I haven't

925
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 4: figured out as we're recording this podcast, something in this

926
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 4: line stinks. The way that it's moving and where the

927
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 4: money and the dollars and the tickets and everything are.

928
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 4: Something's up. And I keep going back to Illinois pulling

929
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 4: that fourth quarter shit off against Michigan State. Right, I mean,

930
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 4: this team just shows up out of nowhere, lets themselves

931
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 4: in their house, eats your food, your shit, sleeps in

932
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 4: your bed, and then they leave and you don't have

933
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 4: any tickets to cash. I've seen Illinois do this before.

934
00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, bizarre line. I mean, I don't, I don't. It's

935
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:12,480
Speaker 2: just telling me that Illinois is gonna throw this line

936
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 2: is gonna is gonna throw and score on Ohio State.

937
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:15,360
Speaker 4: Yep.

938
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 2: And I get that you could do that. A look

939
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 2: one outside the top ninety in passing success. It's it's

940
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 2: been bad and they're giving up explosive passing plays. But

941
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,799
Speaker 2: it's just like that's Illinois does none of that, but

942
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:31,319
Speaker 2: maybe now they do with Peters in their aldie eye.

943
00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:34,920
Speaker 2: Just don't see it. But uh, you're right. It's especially

944
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 2: with the over underticking up too. Yep.

945
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:41,960
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956
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962
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:33,680
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963
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 2: Such on one of the Game of the Big twelve,

964
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 2: you gotta take care of my people in Morgantown and

965
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 2: West Virginia go ears Roads, Take to the Place, Virginia.

966
00:47:56,400 --> 00:48:00,720
Speaker 2: West Virginia is hosting Oklahoma, catching eleven over under fifty

967
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:04,399
Speaker 2: four and a half. Oklahoma's played some good football, Lincoln

968
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 2: Riley has figured some things out. Defense is playing better.

969
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 2: West Virginia live dog gear or is Oklahoma going to

970
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:11,280
Speaker 2: keep it rolling?

971
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 4: Well? It was tough for me to find where West

972
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:18,000
Speaker 4: Virginia was going to get the points because and frankly

973
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:19,879
Speaker 4: for that matter there, I mean, their defense is great,

974
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:25,360
Speaker 4: and the challenge against Oklahoma State for the Sooners was

975
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 4: to survive their defensive front seven and the pressure that

976
00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 4: was going to come on Spencer Ratler. They passed glowingly,

977
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 4: you know, the offensive line finally showed up. There's only

978
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 4: one quarterback, hurry. There was just three sacks on twenty

979
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:40,400
Speaker 4: eight dropbacks for Spencer Rattler. But they'll face a different

980
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:42,800
Speaker 4: kind of defense now where West Virginia they're not really

981
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 4: a sacc rate kind of team. They're more of a

982
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 4: a strength is in coverage. They're graded out first overall

983
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 4: by PFF in pass coverage. West Virginia should have minimal

984
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:57,760
Speaker 4: success against Oklahoma's defense. Their top twenty in line yards,

985
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 4: stuff rate, power success really fancy ways to say they're

986
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 4: going to stop the ground game. Anything. OHU puts down

987
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 4: West Virginia's ninth in defensive havoc. They can turn the

988
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 4: ball over when needed, they can get into your backfield,

989
00:49:10,120 --> 00:49:15,480
Speaker 4: they can force fumbles. West Virginia can't expose OU the

990
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 4: defensive OU and their worst attribute, which is rush explosiveness.

991
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 4: If you want to beat OU, you need to have

992
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:23,800
Speaker 4: a strong rushing game. Well that's a theme of the podcast.

993
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 4: Find me somebody that's got rush explosiveness and they can

994
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 4: win the national championship. I think points are going to

995
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:32,320
Speaker 4: be an issue here. West Virginia's eighth and finishing drives

996
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 4: on defense, and West Virginia's offense is eighty eighth and

997
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 4: offensive finishing drives. That's a bad combination. And you know,

998
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 4: if you want to take it over or if you

999
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:43,400
Speaker 4: want to take a team against the points spread, I

1000
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 4: think the number is spot on for the side. I'm

1001
00:49:46,239 --> 00:49:49,400
Speaker 4: having a really hard time finding enough points in this

1002
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 4: game for both teams.

1003
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 2: I guess we should For the SEC folks, we didn't

1004
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:59,799
Speaker 2: touch on LSU National champs catching fourteen and a half,

1005
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 2: Texas A and m Over under sixty two and a

1006
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:03,799
Speaker 2: half text A and M. I forgot about them, and

1007
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:04,920
Speaker 2: then all of a sudden, I see him in the

1008
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 2: College Fall playoffs, the bright number five. Just I completely

1009
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 2: forgot about them. I think that I don't know when

1010
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 2: the last time they played it is maybe when I

1011
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:14,880
Speaker 2: think South Carolina that same night that noted Amen Clemson played.

1012
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 2: I just completely forgot about text am they pop up

1013
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:19,600
Speaker 2: number five, they're laying fourteen and a half at home?

1014
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 2: Are they rusty? Did they name it here? What do

1015
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 2: you see?

1016
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:25,759
Speaker 4: Yeah? I think one thing that you need to think

1017
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 4: about when handicapping this game, because Coach O came out,

1018
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 4: is the first thing that came out of his mouth. No,

1019
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 4: there would be no cellar break and beating Arkansas and

1020
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,399
Speaker 4: they haven't beaten anybody in a long time, So we're

1021
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:36,959
Speaker 4: supposed to win that football game.

1022
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:38,319
Speaker 2: There's no question about that.

1023
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:40,480
Speaker 4: Coach O came out and he talked about the crowd.

1024
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:43,839
Speaker 4: Now Kyle Field sits close to one hundred thousand. They're

1025
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:46,400
Speaker 4: only allowed to have twenty five percent capacity. Do a

1026
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 4: little quick math here, there should be twenty five thousand

1027
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:52,439
Speaker 4: people in the stands. Text A and M has been

1028
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:56,440
Speaker 4: packing the stadium. Dan Mullen estimated there was about fifty

1029
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 4: thousand there for the Gators game. So Coacho said, this

1030
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 4: is the first time his group of kids, which are

1031
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 4: all brand new compared to the National championship team they

1032
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:05,600
Speaker 4: had last year, this is the first time they're going

1033
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 4: to hear crowd noise. I think that's a huge advantage

1034
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:10,840
Speaker 4: for Texas A and M. One that's not being factored

1035
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 4: into the point spread. Jimbo did mention that there are

1036
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 4: forty players that have been in quarantine for Texas A

1037
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:19,720
Speaker 4: and M. Not that they've tested positive, but through contact

1038
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 4: tracing they've had to go isolate, and he said it's

1039
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 4: been a lot of zoom meetings and then I don't know,

1040
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 4: asking them to do some CrossFit shit on their own,

1041
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:30,160
Speaker 4: like in their dorm room. I don't know, but it's

1042
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:32,759
Speaker 4: worth mentioning that Jimbo said that around forty players have

1043
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 4: been in self isolation in the times since they last played.

1044
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 4: Now Finley, the quarterback for LSU, he should have a

1045
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 4: little bit of success throwing here because we said this

1046
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:44,799
Speaker 4: about the Florida game. Texas A and m's linebackers are

1047
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:47,799
Speaker 4: listed to forty, but they're more like two sixty. They're

1048
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 4: built to eat up the run, they're not really built

1049
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:52,799
Speaker 4: to stop the pass. Texas A and M's ninety six.

1050
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:57,759
Speaker 4: Then defensive passing success rate. No explosiveness, Not LSU, not

1051
00:51:57,840 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 4: Texas A and M. They have no explosive of this whatsoever.

1052
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:03,359
Speaker 4: You know in Texas A and M was one hundred

1053
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 4: and nineteenth in pace, so there's a sixty percent chance

1054
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:08,680
Speaker 4: of rain. Wind is going to be over ten miles

1055
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:12,640
Speaker 4: an hour. I think under sixty is the play not

1056
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:15,120
Speaker 4: so much because of the weather. I think it's just

1057
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:17,319
Speaker 4: going to be a dink and dunk game. I don't

1058
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:18,879
Speaker 4: think there's going to be a pass that goes over

1059
00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:21,479
Speaker 4: ten yards. I don't think there's going to be any

1060
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:26,400
Speaker 4: yards after catch, yards after contact. Explosive plays just not

1061
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 4: going to exist in this game. I know both these

1062
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 4: two teams want to kick the shit out of each other.

1063
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:34,840
Speaker 2: I don't support just keep fighting with us, brain quitting

1064
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 2: on you. Please don't quit on us. You know what

1065
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:37,920
Speaker 2: I'm saying. There's no reason to be nasty.

1066
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 4: But I just don't see what we saw last year,

1067
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:43,520
Speaker 4: what we've seen out of this series, out of this

1068
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:46,399
Speaker 4: rivalry before. So I'm looking at it under in this game.

1069
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 4: I think the side is pretty spot on. But I

1070
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:51,239
Speaker 4: may get a play in on Texas A and M

1071
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 4: first quarter, first half because you can't simulate the crowd

1072
00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 4: noise that they're going to hear. These kids, all these

1073
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 4: fresh faces at LSU, they haven't played in it before,

1074
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 4: and it's going to be a new environment.

1075
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:04,479
Speaker 2: All right, Moving on to we gotta get some action.

1076
00:53:04,640 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 2: We gotta talk to action because there is no weekday

1077
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:10,840
Speaker 2: maction on Tuesdays and Wednesdays anymore. And there is a

1078
00:53:10,880 --> 00:53:15,800
Speaker 2: really good game I love. I love maction, a really

1079
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:19,960
Speaker 2: good game that I'm excited. CBS Sports Network newon Eastern

1080
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:26,000
Speaker 2: Kent State at bet MGM currently is a seven plus

1081
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 2: seven minus one oh five seven point underdog at Buffalo

1082
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:32,800
Speaker 2: over under sixty seven and a half. I saw earlier

1083
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 2: you took some Kent State plus Senata. I took some

1084
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 2: Kent State plus satat half. I make this under a

1085
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:39,840
Speaker 2: field goal. I haven't been that impressed of Buffalo's defense

1086
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:41,919
Speaker 2: just from watching them. They were lucky in a couple

1087
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 2: of games with turnovers, and the Kent State offense is

1088
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:47,440
Speaker 2: just rolling and they'll go really fast. The Buffalo the

1089
00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 2: one concern I have because I kind of lean to

1090
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:51,399
Speaker 2: the over. Maybe you can can convince me to get there.

1091
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 2: The one kids are as Buffalo is a snail, but

1092
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 2: they should have success. That hit a number of just

1093
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:58,840
Speaker 2: huge explosive runs Tara pass and might have a couple

1094
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 2: eighty yard explodes runs. I think this is a shootout

1095
00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 2: that goes down to the wire.

1096
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:06,880
Speaker 4: Absolutely. I think the over in Kent State is the

1097
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 4: only way to play, but you would want to make

1098
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 4: sure and get Kent State at seven and a half

1099
00:54:10,360 --> 00:54:12,759
Speaker 4: or seven considering. I think this is the kind of

1100
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:14,960
Speaker 4: game that just goes back and forth and could potentially

1101
00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:17,319
Speaker 4: end up in overtime. You definitely want to have that

1102
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 4: touchdown in your back pocket with Kent State. Think about

1103
00:54:20,360 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 4: I mean, Buffalo is not fast whatsoever, but they're extremely explosive,

1104
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 4: especially on the ground. So we'll start with the win.

1105
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:29,799
Speaker 4: We'll start with the weather here fifteen miles per an

1106
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,720
Speaker 4: hour wins forecasts, but it's all going to be pushing

1107
00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:34,920
Speaker 4: through one end zone. So what that means is that

1108
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 4: for two quarters there may be just running in one

1109
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 4: direction by each team because they'll be throwing directly into

1110
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:45,920
Speaker 4: wins that will be coming into their face. Oh wow,

1111
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 4: you got to be shitting me. Should it affect some

1112
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 4: of the field goal kicking also, but it's not like

1113
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 4: it's sidelined to sideline, so that's something to keep in mind. Really,

1114
00:54:54,200 --> 00:54:56,000
Speaker 4: I don't think it matters because both of these teams

1115
00:54:56,040 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 4: have such high explosiveness when it comes to the rushing

1116
00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:04,080
Speaker 4: game and in the passing game. Both teams have a

1117
00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:06,480
Speaker 4: rush rate of at least sixty three percent, meaning they

1118
00:55:06,560 --> 00:55:08,640
Speaker 4: run the ball way more than the national average of

1119
00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:12,440
Speaker 4: fifty four percent, and both teams are at least twenty

1120
00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:16,280
Speaker 4: sixth or better. They're twenty six and thirteenth in ground explosiveness,

1121
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 4: which means at any point either team can take off.

1122
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 4: And we've seen Ken State. They don't like any time

1123
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:24,520
Speaker 4: to come off that play clock whatsoever. They are up

1124
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 4: on the ball and Sean Lewis wants that thing hiked.

1125
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:30,320
Speaker 4: You're right, Jared Patterson, He's the home run hitter for Buffalo.

1126
00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:33,280
Speaker 4: Kent State runs at you know, a tempo of seventeenth,

1127
00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:37,240
Speaker 4: fastest in the nation. Buffalo is you know, outpacing almost

1128
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 4: everybody in touchdowns on the ground thanks to Jared Patterson.

1129
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 4: Ken's one hundred and twenty fourth, almost dead last and

1130
00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 4: defending rush explosiveness. So Patterson may have I'd set the

1131
00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 4: over under it three and a half touchdowns that are

1132
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:52,160
Speaker 4: over forty yards. I mean, this is one of the

1133
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:56,280
Speaker 4: worst defenses in Kent State, the flashes and stopping explosive runs.

1134
00:55:56,280 --> 00:55:58,600
Speaker 4: That's not a good stat to be bringing to the

1135
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:02,320
Speaker 4: table against Buffalo trees. He's gonna have success in passing downs.

1136
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:05,840
Speaker 4: Kent's ninety seventh against pass explosiveness. There's a lot of

1137
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:08,960
Speaker 4: ways here for Buffalo to score. Problem is Buffalo is

1138
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:11,360
Speaker 4: one hundred and fourteenth in tackling, They're one hundred and

1139
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:13,359
Speaker 4: eighteenth and stuff right on defense one hundred and twenty

1140
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:16,680
Speaker 4: first and power success. Kent's a running team. Kent may

1141
00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 4: never get off the field. Kent's gonna be able to

1142
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 4: get any down and distance that they want. These teams

1143
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:25,680
Speaker 4: are first and sixth then offensive finishing drives. I don't

1144
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:28,160
Speaker 4: see how you can take anything button over here, and

1145
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:30,239
Speaker 4: like I said, Kent seven or better get that in

1146
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:32,279
Speaker 4: your back pocket. I think it is a shootout all

1147
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:33,920
Speaker 4: the way to the end. That's got a probability of

1148
00:56:33,920 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 4: going to overtime. How beautiful is maction?

1149
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:39,120
Speaker 2: How beautiful is maction? Oh man?

1150
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:41,160
Speaker 4: Just when we thought we had peak maction?

1151
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:43,799
Speaker 2: Love it maction overs by the way, I gotta get

1152
00:56:43,800 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 2: a wamp wamp clown horren noise here. I think I'm

1153
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 2: good about the Kansas under finally try to get one.

1154
00:56:52,800 --> 00:56:54,239
Speaker 4: What are we gonna do with this team? Can we

1155
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:57,719
Speaker 4: excommunicate them? Can we sign them up for byu wa?

1156
00:56:57,800 --> 00:57:00,480
Speaker 2: That total's too high, right, They're gonna lose like forty

1157
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:01,400
Speaker 2: forty to nothing.

1158
00:57:01,640 --> 00:57:04,759
Speaker 4: But you you, you've seemed to neglect the fact that

1159
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:07,440
Speaker 4: they will spot the other team the ball in the

1160
00:57:07,480 --> 00:57:09,200
Speaker 4: red zone.

1161
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:14,440
Speaker 2: Mountain West, San Jose State at Boise State sort of

1162
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 2: an interesting game here. I want to fade Boise, but

1163
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:19,080
Speaker 2: I don't know if this is the spot or not.

1164
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 2: I just don't like the team, and I especially didn't

1165
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 2: like what they did. They were so lucky against Colorado State.

1166
00:57:25,080 --> 00:57:27,760
Speaker 2: There's just certain things I don't like about them. But

1167
00:57:28,240 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 2: they're laying twelve year I bet mgbo Runner fifteen and

1168
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:31,840
Speaker 2: a half. You have anything here? Yeah?

1169
00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:34,320
Speaker 4: I actually love Boise State already took them at the

1170
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 4: number that they're at. If it falls more, you know,

1171
00:57:37,400 --> 00:57:40,640
Speaker 4: then I'll take it even more. I like Boise that much.

1172
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:45,480
Speaker 4: Boise returns from Hawaii, you know, from their trip. Craziest

1173
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:47,600
Speaker 4: ending I've seen the while they were thirty three to nine.

1174
00:57:47,680 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 4: Did not cover that game. While San Jose State they

1175
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 4: haven't played in two weeks, and the last time they

1176
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 4: did play they beat UNLV thirty four to seventeen at home.

1177
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 4: Not really that impressive. Head coach for Boise State Brian

1178
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:01,400
Speaker 4: Harrison mentioned that the team is healthier that it's been

1179
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:05,000
Speaker 4: in the past, which is pretty important considering players on

1180
00:58:05,160 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 4: both sides of the trench have had to like switch jerseys,

1181
00:58:07,360 --> 00:58:10,560
Speaker 4: play offensive line, play defensive line. We've seen the Cade

1182
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:13,440
Speaker 4: finningen kid play third string quarterback. Jack Series is still hurt,

1183
00:58:13,480 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 4: but Hank Bachmeyer is back and you know what Boise says,

1184
00:58:17,120 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 4: is the healthiest that they've been. Then I did a

1185
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:21,160
Speaker 4: little bit of a deep dive on San Jose State.

1186
00:58:21,360 --> 00:58:23,920
Speaker 4: Look at the teams they've beaten. They have a combined

1187
00:58:24,120 --> 00:58:26,960
Speaker 4: three wins. San Diego State has two. Air Force has

1188
00:58:27,040 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 4: won the rank of San Jose State's opponent's passing attacks.

1189
00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:32,880
Speaker 4: And the reason why I bring this up is because

1190
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:35,440
Speaker 4: San Jose State is posting some pretty good defensive numbers.

1191
00:58:36,040 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 4: You know, their death and defensive finishing drives. Remember that

1192
00:58:39,480 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 4: game against Air Force where they were pretty good in

1193
00:58:41,320 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 4: the trench. And Nick Starkle is having some sort of

1194
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 4: rejuvenated career with this third college football program, with their

1195
00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 4: passing attack, their sixteenth and passing success rate the Spartans are,

1196
00:58:53,120 --> 00:58:56,280
Speaker 4: so you know, we're having this rejuvenation of Starkle. The

1197
00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:58,200
Speaker 4: defense is playing well, but then you go and look

1198
00:58:58,200 --> 00:59:00,920
Speaker 4: at the schedule and who San Jose State's play. You

1199
00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 4: look at the rank of San Jose's opponents, San Jose

1200
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:07,880
Speaker 4: State's opponents, and what their passing attacks are. The offensive

1201
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:11,320
Speaker 4: passing attacks of UNLV ninety fifth, New Mexico eighty eighth,

1202
00:59:11,840 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 4: San Diego State ninety fourth, air Force one hundred and eleventh.

1203
00:59:15,640 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 4: Yet the Spartans San Jose State has a defensive coverage

1204
00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:22,120
Speaker 4: rate of just forty ninth. You would think facing the

1205
00:59:22,200 --> 00:59:25,280
Speaker 4: offenses of New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State, and UNLV,

1206
00:59:25,960 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 4: your coverage rate rank would be a lot higher, and

1207
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 4: that's just not the case. The defensive pass explosive this

1208
00:59:32,240 --> 00:59:37,120
Speaker 4: rank is eighty second against those offenses. That's not very good.

1209
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:40,000
Speaker 4: So San Jose State keep this in mind too. I

1210
00:59:40,080 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 4: went through a list of their roster. I got a

1211
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 4: ninety seven percent California kids. There was a couple of

1212
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:49,400
Speaker 4: them from Scottsdale's, a couple of them from Texas, one

1213
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:52,320
Speaker 4: of them from Kent, Washington, right south of Seattle. There

1214
00:59:53,000 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 4: this is They're gonna be playing in thirty five degree weather.

1215
00:59:55,160 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 4: The forecast here is thirty five degrees. With a roster

1216
00:59:57,880 --> 00:59:59,640
Speaker 4: chock full of California kids up. This might be the

1217
00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:01,880
Speaker 4: first time I have ever felt that kind of weather.

1218
01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:05,320
Speaker 4: Hawaii came back with Chavon Cordero. I think that's really

1219
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:08,400
Speaker 4: important because he's a dual threat quarterback and they run

1220
01:00:08,440 --> 01:00:11,160
Speaker 4: as many designed runs with him as they do scrambles.

1221
01:00:11,480 --> 01:00:14,200
Speaker 4: And Chavon Cordero for Hawaii, he gets all of his

1222
01:00:14,400 --> 01:00:17,360
Speaker 4: yards running the ball, and once he's set that up,

1223
01:00:17,720 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 4: it's bombs away. And Boise State had to respect that.

1224
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:24,040
Speaker 4: The entire game. Nick Starkle for San Jose State is

1225
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 4: not Chevon Cordero, not even close. Nick Starkle, I think

1226
01:00:28,040 --> 01:00:30,240
Speaker 4: has four rushing attempts for negative six yards. I'm not

1227
01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:33,360
Speaker 4: sure if there's some sack yardage in there somewhere. Boise

1228
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 4: doesn't have to respect Nick Starkle in the pocket, they

1229
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:37,680
Speaker 4: don't have to keep a spy, they don't have to

1230
01:00:37,760 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 4: keep four or five in the box and watch that.

1231
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 4: They could send three and drop eight. And I love

1232
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 4: Boise in this game. They're back home. Brian Harrison's been

1233
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:48,320
Speaker 4: bitching for weeks about how he's got to play on

1234
01:00:48,400 --> 01:00:51,480
Speaker 4: Thursdays Fridays on the road at Hawaii. I want to

1235
01:00:51,480 --> 01:00:53,760
Speaker 4: get back to my regular schedule of Saturday. Oh and

1236
01:00:53,880 --> 01:00:56,800
Speaker 4: finally we're all healthy again, thank god. And I try

1237
01:00:56,840 --> 01:00:58,440
Speaker 4: to dig it up, but do you remember seeing an

1238
01:00:58,520 --> 01:01:00,800
Speaker 4: article where like the first time quarters play on the

1239
01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:02,720
Speaker 4: blue turf, like it really screws their eyes up, Like

1240
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 4: it takes them like at least a half to get

1241
01:01:04,800 --> 01:01:06,920
Speaker 4: things going there. This is the first time anybody in

1242
01:01:06,960 --> 01:01:09,919
Speaker 4: San Jose State has ever played on this turf. I'm

1243
01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:12,400
Speaker 4: big on Boise and I'm going to keep adding them

1244
01:01:12,440 --> 01:01:13,000
Speaker 4: more at falls.

1245
01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:16,160
Speaker 2: You're just excited to fade your boy Nick Starfle and

1246
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:19,720
Speaker 2: his Biber shirt. Well, I guess we got to cover

1247
01:01:19,840 --> 01:01:23,600
Speaker 2: the PAC twelve. For the PAC twelve talk folks, for

1248
01:01:23,760 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 2: our Power six fans. Colorado at USC at bet mgm us.

1249
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:31,600
Speaker 2: He's an eleven a half point favorite over under sixty

1250
01:01:31,600 --> 01:01:34,440
Speaker 2: four and f two undefeated teams here, Colorado's two, and

1251
01:01:34,480 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 2: oh USC is three and oh any thoughts here.

1252
01:01:37,080 --> 01:01:39,320
Speaker 4: You gotta take Colorado here. You can't trust USC with

1253
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 4: a spread this big. I took Colorado at thirteen. I

1254
01:01:42,320 --> 01:01:43,920
Speaker 4: projected ten. I would take it all the way down

1255
01:01:43,960 --> 01:01:48,680
Speaker 4: to ten. Very impressive offensively against UCLA and Stanford. Sam Noyer,

1256
01:01:48,720 --> 01:01:52,320
Speaker 4: their quarterback has the Buffalos at fourth and pass explosiveness.

1257
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:55,120
Speaker 4: But they're a run first team that you know, I

1258
01:01:55,160 --> 01:01:57,800
Speaker 4: think they run the balls like sixty four percent, which

1259
01:01:57,880 --> 01:02:00,840
Speaker 4: is way above you know, national average of one hundred

1260
01:02:00,840 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 4: and one rushing yards by Sam Noy or eighty one

1261
01:02:02,960 --> 01:02:06,120
Speaker 4: were on designed runs. So it's not like he's scrambling

1262
01:02:06,200 --> 01:02:08,440
Speaker 4: his way to these yards. They've actually got a quarterback

1263
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 4: that is a dual threat. He's avoided six tackles already,

1264
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 4: pretty impressive for quarterback nobody knew of a couple months ago,

1265
01:02:15,160 --> 01:02:19,000
Speaker 4: not as much as Jared Brossard. He has sixteen avoided

1266
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:21,240
Speaker 4: tackles this year and he's averaging three point sixty four

1267
01:02:21,360 --> 01:02:24,680
Speaker 4: yards after contact. He's a pretty impressive offensive numbers coming

1268
01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:27,880
Speaker 4: out of Colorado. USC Defensively, they haven't fixed anything. Their

1269
01:02:27,920 --> 01:02:30,880
Speaker 4: ninety ninth and tackling, their fifty eighth in defensive rushing

1270
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:34,400
Speaker 4: success rate, Colorado's twelfth and tackling on defense and their

1271
01:02:34,400 --> 01:02:36,520
Speaker 4: twenty third defensive havoc, and all that credit goes to

1272
01:02:36,600 --> 01:02:39,040
Speaker 4: Carl Dorrell, the coach. We didn't know how he got

1273
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:41,880
Speaker 4: this job. He was last in the Pac twelve like

1274
01:02:41,960 --> 01:02:46,160
Speaker 4: twenty years ago, and you know, and now he's doing

1275
01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:48,840
Speaker 4: a great job with Colorado, and you know they have

1276
01:02:49,160 --> 01:02:52,440
Speaker 4: I think real life in this game. With USC's being

1277
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 4: such a heavy pass attack, Colorado's got to improve in

1278
01:02:55,320 --> 01:02:57,000
Speaker 4: their coverage grade of one hundred and fifteenth. That's what

1279
01:02:57,080 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 4: worries me here is but USC has shown no life

1280
01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:02,480
Speaker 4: when it comes to the passing game. So I did

1281
01:03:03,080 --> 01:03:05,080
Speaker 4: a little bit of a deep dive on Kadan Slovas.

1282
01:03:05,160 --> 01:03:07,320
Speaker 4: What the hell is going on with kadon Slovas. Color

1283
01:03:07,440 --> 01:03:09,120
Speaker 4: isn't gonna get any pressure on him, so he should

1284
01:03:09,120 --> 01:03:13,760
Speaker 4: fix whatever's going on. Kadon Slovas was never fantastic under pressure.

1285
01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:16,640
Speaker 4: He wasn't last year. And the pressure dropbacks have not

1286
01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:19,040
Speaker 4: seen an increase. Last year is like twenty seven percent.

1287
01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:22,080
Speaker 4: This year it's about twenty eight percent. His NFL passer

1288
01:03:22,160 --> 01:03:24,840
Speaker 4: rating is down like twenty points in non pressure dropbacks,

1289
01:03:24,880 --> 01:03:27,640
Speaker 4: and it's down ten points in pressure dropbacks. And so

1290
01:03:27,760 --> 01:03:31,200
Speaker 4: you say, well, why is that even in non pressure situations,

1291
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:34,400
Speaker 4: Kadon Slovas is worse than he was last year. Last year,

1292
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:39,200
Speaker 4: Kadon Slova's had six throwaways the entire season and one

1293
01:03:39,280 --> 01:03:43,640
Speaker 4: hundred plus dropbacks with pressure. This year forty one pressure dropbacks.

1294
01:03:43,720 --> 01:03:45,880
Speaker 4: He has five throwaways. He has almost the same number

1295
01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:49,160
Speaker 4: of throwaways and a third of the attempts. Another issue

1296
01:03:49,240 --> 01:03:52,320
Speaker 4: is the drops. Last year he had in four hundred

1297
01:03:52,360 --> 01:03:54,960
Speaker 4: drop back passes, Slovas had only ten drops of his

1298
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:58,240
Speaker 4: wide receivers and one hundred non pressure dropbacks. This year,

1299
01:03:58,400 --> 01:04:01,200
Speaker 4: he's had five drops. He's had half the drops and

1300
01:04:01,320 --> 01:04:05,000
Speaker 4: a quarter of the attempts this year drops, throwaways. Not

1301
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:06,960
Speaker 4: sure what's going on with USC in the air raid,

1302
01:04:07,000 --> 01:04:10,000
Speaker 4: but they are not in sync. Godan Slovas. I don't

1303
01:04:10,000 --> 01:04:11,800
Speaker 4: know if it's just gonna click and one day they're

1304
01:04:11,840 --> 01:04:13,840
Speaker 4: gonna have it. I don't know if it's the two

1305
01:04:13,880 --> 01:04:15,840
Speaker 4: defenses they've played. They know that they can rush three

1306
01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:19,240
Speaker 4: and drop eight, but it is not working between Slovas

1307
01:04:19,240 --> 01:04:21,680
Speaker 4: and his wide receivers right now, gotta say Colorado in

1308
01:04:21,720 --> 01:04:22,040
Speaker 4: this game.

1309
01:04:22,520 --> 01:04:25,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, some have hitted that something's off with Slovas's arm.

1310
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:28,200
Speaker 2: It just doesn't look right throwing it as he hurt.

1311
01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:32,000
Speaker 2: I don't know, but yeah, USC has been just a

1312
01:04:32,160 --> 01:04:34,760
Speaker 2: dreadful big favorite so far this year. All right, before

1313
01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:36,200
Speaker 2: we get out of here, let's go three and out.

1314
01:04:39,360 --> 01:04:41,439
Speaker 4: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1315
01:04:43,040 --> 01:04:46,000
Speaker 2: All right, first down, we normally do Friday lights. We

1316
01:04:46,040 --> 01:04:47,960
Speaker 2: already did that with Oregon Oregon State, which is your

1317
01:04:48,000 --> 01:04:50,760
Speaker 2: Friday night game, So don't think that we forgot about you.

1318
01:04:51,280 --> 01:04:53,960
Speaker 2: For first down, we're going to the Triple C dynasty.

1319
01:04:54,360 --> 01:05:00,400
Speaker 2: We got a tall Coastal Carolina roll Seance Baby eight No.

1320
01:05:00,560 --> 01:05:03,320
Speaker 2: Number sixteen in the country. They're like sixteen and a

1321
01:05:03,360 --> 01:05:07,800
Speaker 2: half at Texas State and your Bob's. The Bobs are

1322
01:05:08,360 --> 01:05:12,200
Speaker 2: coming off a upset win over my boys, Arkansas State.

1323
01:05:12,280 --> 01:05:14,160
Speaker 2: Luckily I got them live and they covered because of

1324
01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 2: a missed extra point because I got plus three life.

1325
01:05:16,640 --> 01:05:19,320
Speaker 2: The Bob's missed an extra point for me. Brady McBride

1326
01:05:19,400 --> 01:05:24,120
Speaker 2: went crazy, but it was against Arkansas State. Fucking defense

1327
01:05:24,280 --> 01:05:27,720
Speaker 2: is atrocious. Triple C Dynasty. Are you fading them? It

1328
01:05:27,880 --> 01:05:30,360
Speaker 2: is the Triple CE dynasty versus your Bob's that's going

1329
01:05:30,440 --> 01:05:30,920
Speaker 2: to happen here.

1330
01:05:31,040 --> 01:05:33,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Black Swarm defense. I don't think we're gonna

1331
01:05:33,560 --> 01:05:35,040
Speaker 4: have a let down here from Coastal. I think the

1332
01:05:35,120 --> 01:05:37,680
Speaker 4: number is pretty spot on, But Texas State still playing hard.

1333
01:05:37,960 --> 01:05:40,600
Speaker 4: Upset of Arkansas State could have packed it in. Spavodol's

1334
01:05:40,640 --> 01:05:43,160
Speaker 4: got them. Got these guys still coming to the field

1335
01:05:43,200 --> 01:05:46,320
Speaker 4: and producing. I think what's interesting is that, and I'm

1336
01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:48,640
Speaker 4: glad I was hammering the hell out of Coastal at

1337
01:05:48,680 --> 01:05:51,000
Speaker 4: halftime during You know that app State loss would have

1338
01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:54,080
Speaker 4: hurt a lot more. Coastal is not allowed to touchdown

1339
01:05:54,080 --> 01:05:56,520
Speaker 4: in the second half for four straight games, so keep

1340
01:05:56,560 --> 01:05:57,760
Speaker 4: that in mind. I don't know if you want to

1341
01:05:57,760 --> 01:06:01,959
Speaker 4: play Coastal pre game, but they are definitely a under

1342
01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:05,080
Speaker 4: or Coastal side for the second half. Considering what they

1343
01:06:05,120 --> 01:06:07,800
Speaker 4: are doing the teams in the second half, this just

1344
01:06:08,000 --> 01:06:11,080
Speaker 4: isn't a good fit. I've said this on and on

1345
01:06:11,320 --> 01:06:14,760
Speaker 4: and on. Coastal Carolina can be challenged and beat by

1346
01:06:14,840 --> 01:06:17,880
Speaker 4: teams that have a rushing attack that's not Texas State.

1347
01:06:18,880 --> 01:06:21,520
Speaker 4: Texas State is gonna be Brady Bigbride. They're gonna be

1348
01:06:21,600 --> 01:06:23,760
Speaker 4: throwing as much as possible. They throw fifty three percent

1349
01:06:23,840 --> 01:06:24,240
Speaker 4: of the time.

1350
01:06:25,560 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 2: You know that.

1351
01:06:26,640 --> 01:06:29,800
Speaker 4: Listen. Coastal's forty sixth in coverage, and they ranked twenty

1352
01:06:29,800 --> 01:06:32,000
Speaker 4: eighth in defensive passing success rate, and they ranked top

1353
01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:36,680
Speaker 4: ten in the nation and limiting explosiveness pass explosiveness, that is,

1354
01:06:37,080 --> 01:06:39,840
Speaker 4: Brady McBride is going to get anything deep. Last time

1355
01:06:39,920 --> 01:06:42,640
Speaker 4: Coastal faced a team that was like this, pass happy

1356
01:06:42,680 --> 01:06:45,760
Speaker 4: all the time. They beat Arkansas State by thirty so

1357
01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:50,040
Speaker 4: Blackshorn defense seventh in the nation, and sacrate more of

1358
01:06:50,080 --> 01:06:51,640
Speaker 4: a second half play. I mean, you can take a

1359
01:06:51,680 --> 01:06:53,800
Speaker 4: full game if you want. I just think it's some

1360
01:06:54,040 --> 01:06:57,240
Speaker 4: point you're gonna get a better number. But yeah, coastal

1361
01:06:57,280 --> 01:06:58,960
Speaker 4: all the way here, no letdown.

1362
01:07:00,000 --> 01:07:02,080
Speaker 2: All right, and for a second down, we normally do

1363
01:07:02,160 --> 01:07:05,360
Speaker 2: our prices, right, Sega will we covered so many games already.

1364
01:07:05,840 --> 01:07:09,680
Speaker 2: Let's switch it up. Go with the late night chase

1365
01:07:09,760 --> 01:07:19,640
Speaker 2: it Saturday night, eleven pm, Eastern Spectrum Sports. Good luck

1366
01:07:19,720 --> 01:07:24,040
Speaker 2: finding it. We have Nevada and Romeo Dubbs my boy

1367
01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:25,880
Speaker 2: after they're a big win to get the five and

1368
01:07:25,920 --> 01:07:27,960
Speaker 2: I was seven point favorite on the island at Hawaii

1369
01:07:28,560 --> 01:07:31,240
Speaker 2: over under sixty and a half. What should everyone be

1370
01:07:31,280 --> 01:07:33,400
Speaker 2: betting here and sweating up till two thirty in the

1371
01:07:33,440 --> 01:07:36,040
Speaker 2: morning like I did to get hit the Hawaii backdoor

1372
01:07:36,240 --> 01:07:37,680
Speaker 2: in Miracco's fashion last week?

1373
01:07:37,960 --> 01:07:41,880
Speaker 4: Well, sadly, Nevada is Yeah. I talked all about Shavon

1374
01:07:42,000 --> 01:07:44,920
Speaker 4: Cordero and how the offense is completely based around him

1375
01:07:44,960 --> 01:07:48,240
Speaker 4: designed runs, and that design run is used to set

1376
01:07:48,360 --> 01:07:51,160
Speaker 4: him up for the pass. Hawaii's tenth of the nation,

1377
01:07:51,320 --> 01:07:55,680
Speaker 4: offensive rush explosiveness, and that's all on Cordero. The problem

1378
01:07:55,760 --> 01:07:58,840
Speaker 4: is Nevada is fourth in the nation. It's stopping explosive runs,

1379
01:07:58,960 --> 01:08:01,439
Speaker 4: a big piece of why they beat San Diego State

1380
01:08:02,080 --> 01:08:03,560
Speaker 4: able to keep them at twenty one points. I mean,

1381
01:08:03,560 --> 01:08:05,520
Speaker 4: Santaway State has been rolled. Nevada did a great job

1382
01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:08,520
Speaker 4: there with them. And you know, Nevada is ninth in

1383
01:08:08,560 --> 01:08:12,080
Speaker 4: the nation and defensive passing success rate. The number to

1384
01:08:12,240 --> 01:08:14,440
Speaker 4: me though, should be four and a half. And that's

1385
01:08:14,480 --> 01:08:16,000
Speaker 4: where I'm in a bit of a quandary with this.

1386
01:08:16,479 --> 01:08:18,280
Speaker 4: I think it's seven and a half. It's a game

1387
01:08:18,360 --> 01:08:20,200
Speaker 4: that I've got to play on Hawaii just based on

1388
01:08:20,360 --> 01:08:23,920
Speaker 4: numbers alone. So you know, there's so much like about

1389
01:08:24,000 --> 01:08:27,000
Speaker 4: Nevada here. I just think it's completely inflated. Because you

1390
01:08:27,080 --> 01:08:30,639
Speaker 4: got a primetime CBS slot, you won, your game covered

1391
01:08:30,680 --> 01:08:33,320
Speaker 4: the spread, and I think that plays a little bit

1392
01:08:33,360 --> 01:08:36,719
Speaker 4: into the number here, which opened it too and flew

1393
01:08:36,800 --> 01:08:38,960
Speaker 4: up to seven and a half. I think there's just

1394
01:08:39,000 --> 01:08:41,080
Speaker 4: at there's just too much bias here on Nevada. For

1395
01:08:41,160 --> 01:08:45,000
Speaker 4: this long trip, I've been ended up taking Hawaii plate

1396
01:08:45,040 --> 01:08:46,680
Speaker 4: Saturday night. I can't wait to want to try to

1397
01:08:46,720 --> 01:08:47,840
Speaker 4: find spectrum sports again.

1398
01:08:48,600 --> 01:08:50,640
Speaker 2: Love it. Hopefully you get the same ref treatment and

1399
01:08:50,720 --> 01:08:52,280
Speaker 2: if I join you, we get the same ref treatment

1400
01:08:52,760 --> 01:08:56,320
Speaker 2: as I did last Saturday night. All Right, before we

1401
01:08:56,320 --> 01:08:59,240
Speaker 2: get out of here, we have one last order of business.

1402
01:08:59,280 --> 01:09:00,800
Speaker 2: That's our underdog moneyline.

1403
01:09:00,439 --> 01:09:08,400
Speaker 1: Parlay turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1404
01:09:08,600 --> 01:09:10,080
Speaker 1: the money line parlay.

1405
01:09:11,400 --> 01:09:13,479
Speaker 2: Have we were having a good year last week we

1406
01:09:13,640 --> 01:09:17,639
Speaker 2: lose two by a combined two points thanks to bullshit

1407
01:09:19,080 --> 01:09:22,280
Speaker 2: special teams. Georgia Southern by the way average seven yards

1408
01:09:22,320 --> 01:09:24,599
Speaker 2: per play, Army averaged three point six, went on a buck.

1409
01:09:25,000 --> 01:09:27,760
Speaker 2: Why can't I get my field goal? Anyway? We move

1410
01:09:27,840 --> 01:09:30,640
Speaker 2: on underdog winning line parlay. This week we're going with

1411
01:09:30,720 --> 01:09:34,840
Speaker 2: a Leach Miss State money line. They're catching ten nine

1412
01:09:34,880 --> 01:09:38,519
Speaker 2: and a half at Ole miss Will Rogers, who's my boy?

1413
01:09:38,720 --> 01:09:43,759
Speaker 2: Started last week against Georgia and they finally found an offense.

1414
01:09:45,120 --> 01:09:47,200
Speaker 2: Rogers about forty one to fifty two for three hundred

1415
01:09:47,200 --> 01:09:49,960
Speaker 2: and thirty six yards in a touchdown. Really good numbers

1416
01:09:49,960 --> 01:09:53,120
Speaker 2: against Georgia for what they've been doing. And Missisispi State

1417
01:09:53,240 --> 01:09:55,680
Speaker 2: is a better defense. I think this will probably a

1418
01:09:55,720 --> 01:10:00,080
Speaker 2: shootout whole. Missus defense is terrible, high variance game I

1419
01:10:00,200 --> 01:10:03,000
Speaker 2: like what I saw from Rogers last week. I'm rolling

1420
01:10:03,000 --> 01:10:04,519
Speaker 2: with Leech. I like it.

1421
01:10:04,760 --> 01:10:09,000
Speaker 4: And you know, I was contemplating Colorado. That's pretty big

1422
01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:12,519
Speaker 4: one pretty big dog there against USC. It was contemplating Kent,

1423
01:10:12,720 --> 01:10:14,679
Speaker 4: a game that I absolutely think can go to overtime

1424
01:10:14,680 --> 01:10:17,600
Speaker 4: against Buffalo. Buffalo has been lucky, but I'm going to

1425
01:10:17,640 --> 01:10:20,360
Speaker 4: settle on a team that I very much think gets

1426
01:10:20,400 --> 01:10:22,200
Speaker 4: it done, and that's going to be North Carolina. I

1427
01:10:22,240 --> 01:10:25,600
Speaker 4: think North Carolina's explosiveness on offense with Sam Howe is

1428
01:10:25,680 --> 01:10:27,680
Speaker 4: going to be too much for Notre Dame. I think

1429
01:10:27,760 --> 01:10:30,160
Speaker 4: a lot of people are feeding off the brand name

1430
01:10:30,240 --> 01:10:34,880
Speaker 4: win against Clemson when the Clemson wasn't really Clemson, chaos

1431
01:10:35,000 --> 01:10:36,639
Speaker 4: and the ACC I'm taking North Carolina.

1432
01:10:37,320 --> 01:10:43,000
Speaker 2: Love it, Leach and the Heels. All right, everyone, thanks

1433
01:10:43,080 --> 01:10:47,560
Speaker 2: for listening. We love all your support. That's why we

1434
01:10:47,680 --> 01:10:50,559
Speaker 2: wanted to get this episode out a day before the holiday,

1435
01:10:50,800 --> 01:10:52,559
Speaker 2: so I hope you enjoyed it. Hopefully we can win

1436
01:10:52,720 --> 01:10:59,040
Speaker 2: some money all across the weekend, starting on Thanksgiving. I

1437
01:10:59,160 --> 01:11:02,240
Speaker 2: hope you all have a a safe and happy Thanksgiving,

1438
01:11:02,600 --> 01:11:05,200
Speaker 2: no matter how you choose to spend it. I did

1439
01:11:05,560 --> 01:11:07,160
Speaker 2: make sure you tell a friend. Look if you're gonna

1440
01:11:07,160 --> 01:11:10,000
Speaker 2: see family or friends, tell them about the podcast, or

1441
01:11:10,040 --> 01:11:12,240
Speaker 2: at the minimum, subscribe on Subscribe or just leave a

1442
01:11:12,320 --> 01:11:14,800
Speaker 2: review five star review. You'll get in the running for

1443
01:11:15,200 --> 01:11:16,800
Speaker 2: it helps us number one, but you also get in

1444
01:11:16,840 --> 01:11:23,800
Speaker 2: the running for some prizes. Look tid ferguson hook them,

1445
01:11:24,200 --> 01:11:25,760
Speaker 2: love to get my Fridays in the fall, Starve and

1446
01:11:25,840 --> 01:11:28,840
Speaker 2: listen to these moonfulon guys. Listen to them. Matures that

1447
01:11:28,840 --> 01:11:31,040
Speaker 2: I'll lose money that weekend in the most gruesome and

1448
01:11:31,080 --> 01:11:34,720
Speaker 2: horrific ways possible. Love that, throw them a sweatshirt and

1449
01:11:35,560 --> 01:11:39,280
Speaker 2: Brave Galaxy Wolf the best college football podcast around the

1450
01:11:39,320 --> 01:11:41,599
Speaker 2: analysis BNDER is great. The voicemails and stuffs a legends.

1451
01:11:42,040 --> 01:11:43,960
Speaker 2: Listen to these jokers since the Jen and Juice days

1452
01:11:43,960 --> 01:11:47,000
Speaker 2: and my phone always on low battery too, love it.

1453
01:11:47,280 --> 01:11:50,160
Speaker 2: Send both the voicemails, send both them sweatshirts. Maybe I'll

1454
01:11:50,160 --> 01:11:52,679
Speaker 2: send them something else, but appreciate all you guys. Enjoy

1455
01:11:52,760 --> 01:11:54,920
Speaker 2: the holiday. We'll see you on Twitter. Don't forget about

1456
01:11:54,920 --> 01:11:58,160
Speaker 2: the voicemail anytime over the next week. We will be

1457
01:11:58,240 --> 01:12:03,559
Speaker 2: back on Monday with a weekend football recap and review.

1458
01:12:04,160 --> 01:12:19,960
Speaker 2: We'll catch you all inter Cheers, peace out, We're finished talking,