1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:06,439
Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of his information shot

2
00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:07,960
Speaker 1: about five dollars.

3
00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:11,440
Speaker 2: This is a ray of how of the Trackleshite.

4
00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:18,480
Speaker 1: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

5
00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:27,000
Speaker 1: Humans need fantasy to be human. My goodness, miss I

6
00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:31,440
Speaker 1: suppose the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

7
00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:33,599
Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn, very bless.

8
00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:39,360
Speaker 1: Their Welcome to the Fantasy Flex podcast from the Action

9
00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 1: Network and Fantasy Labs. I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and

10
00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:45,560
Speaker 1: on today's episode, we're gonna be talking about twenty twenty

11
00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:50,880
Speaker 1: four fantasy football bus guys that you should be avoiding

12
00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:55,000
Speaker 1: straight curving in your twenty twenty four fantasy draft. As always,

13
00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,560
Speaker 1: I'm joined by one of the most accurate rankers and

14
00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,960
Speaker 1: projectors in the is the odds maker Sean Kerner. Sean,

15
00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:03,400
Speaker 1: what's up?

16
00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:05,960
Speaker 2: It's up? Happy roster cut Day.

17
00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:08,360
Speaker 3: I always love this to get to clean up our spreadsheets,

18
00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,480
Speaker 3: get to know who made the fifty three man roster,

19
00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:14,200
Speaker 3: get some crazy news coming right now. But happy fifty

20
00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,039
Speaker 3: three man cut Day. Yeah to you as well.

21
00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,960
Speaker 1: And had a you know, a few interesting ones, no

22
00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,280
Speaker 1: no canarios, Tony Finally for the Chiefs and our boy

23
00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,959
Speaker 1: Carson Steele made their roster, so that should be That

24
00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:31,039
Speaker 1: should be fun, and aj Dowing's back on IR so

25
00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,600
Speaker 1: maybe Marshall and Woyd will be okay after all. But

26
00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:38,280
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about Fantasy football busts at each position.

27
00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:42,920
Speaker 1: We really nailed a lot of these last season, so

28
00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:47,520
Speaker 1: you're gonna want to listen up because I always find

29
00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:51,400
Speaker 1: that really about the guys you avoid. If you can

30
00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:55,360
Speaker 1: avoid some land mines, really helps a lot because a

31
00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,880
Speaker 1: lot of times, you know, end up focusing on certain

32
00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,080
Speaker 1: parts of the draft, especially the early parts, and then

33
00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:03,160
Speaker 1: you just kind of draft guys as they come up

34
00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,800
Speaker 1: in the EIGHTYP lists or whatever. So very helpful to

35
00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,720
Speaker 1: kind of be able to identify these busts. So we'll

36
00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,640
Speaker 1: start at quarterback and go from there. But before we do,

37
00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:15,160
Speaker 1: I just want to quickly remind every one Our twenty

38
00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:19,079
Speaker 1: twenty four Fantasy Football draftkit is available right now over

39
00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:23,040
Speaker 1: on Fantasy labs dot com. You can find all of

40
00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:28,040
Speaker 1: Sean and my rankings and projections at fantasylabs dot com,

41
00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:32,160
Speaker 1: our entire draft kit, Sean Kerner's tears, all that good stuff,

42
00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:35,959
Speaker 1: and remember we're both top five most accurate season long

43
00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:39,640
Speaker 1: rankers over the past three seasons over at Fantasy Pros

44
00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,480
Speaker 1: and their accuracy contests. So you definitely want to check

45
00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:47,359
Speaker 1: out our rankings and projections and use those for your drafts.

46
00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,160
Speaker 1: And you can get twenty dollars off at Fantasy Labs

47
00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:52,960
Speaker 1: by using the code flex twenty. That's fl ex two

48
00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:57,720
Speaker 1: zero when you sign up at fantasylabs dot com slash flex.

49
00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:03,519
Speaker 1: That's code fl ex to zero at Fantasy labs dot

50
00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:08,840
Speaker 1: com slash flex. All right, let's start with busts at quarterback.

51
00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:14,480
Speaker 1: Last year, we both had Derek Carr pegged as a

52
00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:19,280
Speaker 1: bust and I also had Aaron Rodgers, so that worked

53
00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:20,239
Speaker 1: out pretty well.

54
00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:25,079
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I'm going to be aggressive here in attack

55
00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,680
Speaker 3: some of them the top twelve, so I'm gonna get

56
00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,320
Speaker 3: a little bold here, but I'm going Anthony Richardson at

57
00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:36,000
Speaker 3: QB six. Yeah, you know most QB leagues or you

58
00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,560
Speaker 3: know one quarterbacks. I wanted to go with the guy

59
00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:42,040
Speaker 3: that would actually get drafted. You know, he was a

60
00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,680
Speaker 3: quarterback I was very very high on last year. We

61
00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,480
Speaker 3: talked about him, that he was in the sleeper spot,

62
00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,320
Speaker 3: that he was my super pick last year when he

63
00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,720
Speaker 3: was at like QB fifteen. But now he's QB six,

64
00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,840
Speaker 3: so you have to pay a bit of a premium

65
00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:57,920
Speaker 3: to land in this year. And I'm still high on

66
00:03:57,960 --> 00:03:59,840
Speaker 3: him as a fancy talent. I think if he stays

67
00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:02,280
Speaker 3: hell healthy for all seventeen games, he'll probably be a

68
00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,080
Speaker 3: top five quarterback. But at QB six, you kind of

69
00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,920
Speaker 3: need him to stay healthy all seventeen games. And I

70
00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,040
Speaker 3: don't think it's fair to really say he's an injury

71
00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,600
Speaker 3: risk at this point. But his playing style, the way

72
00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:15,960
Speaker 3: he runs, you know, he did take a lot of shots.

73
00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:17,719
Speaker 3: He got knocked out of I think three of his

74
00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:21,560
Speaker 3: four games. So and the thing with Richardson is he

75
00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,400
Speaker 3: has a ton of upside, a ton of talent, but

76
00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,960
Speaker 3: he just doesn't have much experience. So the fact that

77
00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,520
Speaker 3: he only played you know, close to four games last

78
00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:33,760
Speaker 3: year means he's still pretty inexperienced. And maybe that goes

79
00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,320
Speaker 3: in terms of just learning how to avoid taking big

80
00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,720
Speaker 3: hits and you know, avoiding injury. So that's part of it.

81
00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:41,880
Speaker 3: So I think that just the fact that he missed

82
00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:43,839
Speaker 3: most of the last year, and is he his ADP

83
00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:47,520
Speaker 3: went up ten slots almost I think is a bit rich.

84
00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,039
Speaker 3: I think just I'd rather keep attacking guys in that

85
00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,760
Speaker 3: QB twelve to QB fifteen range that have similar upside

86
00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:57,240
Speaker 3: like Kayleb Williams, like Jayden Daniels. Then having to spend

87
00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,600
Speaker 3: a draft capital or where I think if Richardson goes

88
00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:01,479
Speaker 3: down to you kind of screwing yourself over. You could

89
00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,960
Speaker 3: have had an extra running back or wide receiver in

90
00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:06,400
Speaker 3: this range. So again, he's a guy that I still

91
00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:08,240
Speaker 3: love the talent, but where he's going in the draft,

92
00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,800
Speaker 3: I think he just has two love a floor. Where

93
00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,039
Speaker 3: he's going now when it comes to best ball, I

94
00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,760
Speaker 3: think it's worth you know that wide ranger outcomes, but

95
00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,000
Speaker 3: season long redraft leagues, I think there's probably too much

96
00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:22,000
Speaker 3: risk there and you can get the same type of

97
00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,279
Speaker 3: upside and the two rookie quarterbacks we liked in our sleeperspod.

98
00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Richardson as a as a guy who

99
00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:31,000
Speaker 1: has to rank and project these guys, he gives me

100
00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:34,600
Speaker 1: a headache because he like On. On the one hand,

101
00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:37,359
Speaker 1: I totally agree, I think he has massive bust potential,

102
00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,240
Speaker 1: But at the same time, if I project him for

103
00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:44,359
Speaker 1: like sixteen games, he does rank as a QB six

104
00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:49,440
Speaker 1: and he's kind of like because he's going QB six

105
00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:51,880
Speaker 1: instead of you know, QB one, two or three like

106
00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:55,200
Speaker 1: Allen or Hurts or Lamar. Yeah, he's kind of a

107
00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,400
Speaker 1: league winner too, So it's like all these different things.

108
00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:02,120
Speaker 1: It's like he's a league winner. The potential buzz and

109
00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:05,480
Speaker 1: it's like how you only have four games of sample size?

110
00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,800
Speaker 1: And then it's like do you you know with this

111
00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,640
Speaker 1: what four games in one season? Do you project his

112
00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:15,120
Speaker 1: games played? Do you know? How much do you not get?

113
00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,640
Speaker 1: Like that's always tricky in itself projecting games played. So

114
00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:24,160
Speaker 1: he's a headache to rank and project. I so I

115
00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,800
Speaker 1: do agree with you, but uh yeah, I mean I

116
00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:29,760
Speaker 1: have him at QB six. I don't I don't feel

117
00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:34,000
Speaker 1: great about the floor. But yeah, yeah, he's kind of

118
00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:35,920
Speaker 1: projects out there. If I project him for like a

119
00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:37,880
Speaker 1: sixteen game season.

120
00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:39,520
Speaker 3: That's that's what I'm saying. He's my QB seven. It's

121
00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,000
Speaker 3: not like, oh, I have'm ranked twentieth. Uh No, I

122
00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,360
Speaker 3: thought this time last year, I said, if God were

123
00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:49,080
Speaker 3: to create the ultimate like fantasy quarterback gets him just

124
00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:51,040
Speaker 3: I think the time to cash in on his ADP

125
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,560
Speaker 3: was last year. And you know, he scored four rushing

126
00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:58,400
Speaker 3: touchdowns in his four games. That's unsustainable. And if you look,

127
00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,080
Speaker 3: all four of those touchdowns were when Jonathan Taylor was out.

128
00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,520
Speaker 3: I think when Jonathan Taylor's out, they'll probably want him

129
00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,200
Speaker 3: to handle, you know, all the goal line work in

130
00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,240
Speaker 3: order to keep Richardson healthy. So that's something that when

131
00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,360
Speaker 3: you look at his points per game, I think he

132
00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,560
Speaker 3: was QB one last year. I just don't know if

133
00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:17,600
Speaker 3: he's gonna be able to sustain you know, a touchdown

134
00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:20,320
Speaker 3: a game. But again, I think that he has top

135
00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:25,320
Speaker 3: three upside. I'm just saying his draft capital, you kind

136
00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:27,480
Speaker 3: of do need him to stay healthy for most of

137
00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,600
Speaker 3: the season, especially come fancy playoff time. You're gonna need

138
00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:31,160
Speaker 3: him healthy.

139
00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's a it's an aggressive it's an aggressive pick.

140
00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:38,120
Speaker 1: It's it's definitely an aggressive pick, high risk, high rewards.

141
00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:41,920
Speaker 1: I definitely take your point with the bus potential because yeah,

142
00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:45,440
Speaker 1: if if I kind of I mean, what here's a

143
00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:47,600
Speaker 1: here's the question I always love to ask this time

144
00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:52,400
Speaker 1: of year, what is your games played projection for Richardson?

145
00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,440
Speaker 1: Like and like are you are you kind of knocking

146
00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:57,960
Speaker 1: it down in terms of the starts or are you

147
00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:00,840
Speaker 1: like projecting like a like kind of the eighth line level,

148
00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:03,880
Speaker 1: you know, fifteen and a half sixteen starts, but then

149
00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:06,400
Speaker 1: knocking down the snap rate within those starts because he

150
00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,200
Speaker 1: struggled the finished games. How are you arriving at like

151
00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,360
Speaker 1: your final like you know, volume projection.

152
00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, for Richardson, I'm not getting that meticulous, but I

153
00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:20,680
Speaker 3: have him fifteen games played, so two miss games. Again,

154
00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,080
Speaker 3: there's just a wide range of outcomes. I'm not saying

155
00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:27,320
Speaker 3: he's gonna miss fourteen games this year, you know, twelve

156
00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:29,440
Speaker 3: games this year or anything like that, But I'm just saying,

157
00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:32,680
Speaker 3: out of all the other guys, I think he does

158
00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:36,520
Speaker 3: have the biggest injury risk, and he again, he just

159
00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,040
Speaker 3: has a wide range of outcomes. He's still in experience.

160
00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:41,520
Speaker 3: We only saw him for like maybe like two and

161
00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:44,600
Speaker 3: a half games total last year, and I was very, very,

162
00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:46,760
Speaker 3: very very high on him last year. So I'm high

163
00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,240
Speaker 3: on him as a talent. I'm just saying just it's

164
00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,959
Speaker 3: the draft capital being spent on him. You're kind of

165
00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,800
Speaker 3: stuck with him at that point. Whereas again Taylor Williams,

166
00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,559
Speaker 3: Jayan Daniels, if they don't pan out, you were able

167
00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,720
Speaker 3: to get an extra running back receiver. When someone who's

168
00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:05,280
Speaker 3: drafting Anthony Richardson this has almost everything to do with

169
00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:08,440
Speaker 3: my draft strategy, and last year, Anthony Richardson was going

170
00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:10,880
Speaker 3: exactly where I love taking that quarterback. So I just

171
00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:12,640
Speaker 3: think the time to take him was last year, and

172
00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:15,560
Speaker 3: it's unfortunate that he did get hurt so early in

173
00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:19,120
Speaker 3: the season. But again, we have another batch of very,

174
00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:21,840
Speaker 3: very high upside rookies, so I'm just saying they're kind

175
00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:23,480
Speaker 3: of taking his place from last year, is what I'm

176
00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:23,880
Speaker 3: getting at.

177
00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:25,280
Speaker 2: But I still think Anthony.

178
00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:29,800
Speaker 3: Richardson has you know, QB one overall all upside, So

179
00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:34,439
Speaker 3: I'm not saying there's anything in terms of his play necessarily,

180
00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:37,720
Speaker 3: But again, QB six, you're gonna have to need him to.

181
00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:38,640
Speaker 2: Stay healthy all season.

182
00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:40,240
Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm only to take that risk,

183
00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:42,120
Speaker 3: and you know traditional season long leads.

184
00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:45,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's not like he's the only potential league winner.

185
00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:49,400
Speaker 1: I feel him. He kicks off like a half dozen

186
00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:52,720
Speaker 1: of those kind of guys, So definitely take your point

187
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:57,400
Speaker 1: for me, it's right back to Aaron Rodgers. QB eighteen

188
00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,160
Speaker 1: is still too and more and more people are playing

189
00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:03,040
Speaker 1: in Super Flex LEAGUS or two TV League, so I

190
00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:05,480
Speaker 1: think it's worth bringing it up because again, you know,

191
00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:07,559
Speaker 1: you're at that point where you're just trying to get

192
00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,480
Speaker 1: your second quarterback and make sure you kind of secure him.

193
00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:12,920
Speaker 1: But QB eighteen I think is too high. I have

194
00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:17,079
Speaker 1: him outside my top twenty. And remember last time he

195
00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:20,400
Speaker 1: played a full season in twenty twenty two, he had

196
00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:24,760
Speaker 1: no top five finishes, so his ceiling is probably capped.

197
00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:29,560
Speaker 1: And that's even more so because the Jets are one

198
00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:31,720
Speaker 1: of the best defenses in the league. So it's not

199
00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,080
Speaker 1: like Aaron Rodgers is gonna need to throw it all

200
00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:36,720
Speaker 1: around the yard and throw forty forty five times and

201
00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,680
Speaker 1: get into some shootouts all day. You know, he can

202
00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:42,559
Speaker 1: kind of play game manager, check it down a lot.

203
00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:47,280
Speaker 1: Probably be good for Wilson and Breise Hall, but I

204
00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,520
Speaker 1: don't think it'll be great for Aaron Rodgers' numbers. They're

205
00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,439
Speaker 1: favored in fourteen of seventeen games, so not a lot

206
00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:57,120
Speaker 1: of trailing game scripts to speak of, and he is

207
00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:01,920
Speaker 1: a forty one year old quarterback coming off injury. So UH,

208
00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:06,240
Speaker 1: I just think there's a lot of you know, higher upside,

209
00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:11,040
Speaker 1: younger quarter healthier quarterbacks that you could go with in

210
00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:13,800
Speaker 1: this range. UH talked about quite a few of them

211
00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:18,280
Speaker 1: in our sweepers pod. You know Geno Smith. I think

212
00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:23,319
Speaker 1: Bryce Young beats his ADP as well. Uh, pretty much

213
00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:28,080
Speaker 1: anyone in that range though, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Herbert.

214
00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:28,880
Speaker 3: Uh.

215
00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:32,120
Speaker 1: There's just so many guys that I think you're better

216
00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,760
Speaker 1: off with, uh than and Aaron Rodgers with this, you know,

217
00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:38,280
Speaker 1: playing with this great defense and just so much uncertainty

218
00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:42,720
Speaker 1: coming back at that age from a serious injury. All right,

219
00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:49,360
Speaker 1: let's go to running back. Uh this one also this one? Yeah,

220
00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:53,680
Speaker 1: this one, this one was a little rough for uh,

221
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:59,200
Speaker 1: your running back picks. You had Najie Swift and Rashad White,

222
00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:03,160
Speaker 1: so those guys actually did pretty well, and I had

223
00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:05,559
Speaker 1: Breithe Hall was one of my picks, so that that

224
00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,360
Speaker 1: did not go well. I did have Josh Jacobs though,

225
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,440
Speaker 1: and Jarret McKinnon, so did have did you'd have some

226
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:15,400
Speaker 1: of them? But that is probably our weakest position. But

227
00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:20,720
Speaker 1: let's try to do better this season. I already really

228
00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,280
Speaker 1: like my two guys, so let's start with you.

229
00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,160
Speaker 2: Who you got I'm gonna go.

230
00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:26,640
Speaker 3: I'm going to go right back to the well with

231
00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:31,360
Speaker 3: Rashaud White at RB twelve. You know, he finished as

232
00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,120
Speaker 3: the rbaight last year. But there were a few red

233
00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:37,120
Speaker 3: flags in that finished he you know, he played all

234
00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,040
Speaker 3: seventeen games, so it's better a look at points per

235
00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,720
Speaker 3: game when when someone kind of benefited from not.

236
00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:44,199
Speaker 2: Missing any time.

237
00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,040
Speaker 3: And he finished RB sixteen in points per game, And

238
00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:51,240
Speaker 3: he also didn't have much competition for touches, you know,

239
00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:55,960
Speaker 3: so once again he struggled with inefficiency, but it didn't

240
00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:58,440
Speaker 3: cost some touches because there really wasn't anybody there that

241
00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:02,079
Speaker 3: was an upgrade over him. You know, the offensive line

242
00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,680
Speaker 3: is still a concern, but he had the fifth lowest

243
00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,840
Speaker 3: rushing yards overexpected per attempt according to next shun Stats,

244
00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,760
Speaker 3: which does factor in you know, your offensive line, the

245
00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:17,360
Speaker 3: lanes where defenders are, so you know, even that metric,

246
00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:21,280
Speaker 3: he performed very poorly in so they just took Bucky

247
00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:22,959
Speaker 3: Irving in the fourth round, who I think is a

248
00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:26,040
Speaker 3: very talented back out of Oregon. He's gonna be much

249
00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,320
Speaker 3: more competition for White this year in terms of touches,

250
00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,160
Speaker 3: So I just don't think he has that high floor

251
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:34,320
Speaker 3: that we saw last year. And again, most running backs

252
00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:37,520
Speaker 3: miss you know, one to two games year, sometimes three games.

253
00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:41,079
Speaker 3: So just I think that people are kind of buying

254
00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,640
Speaker 3: White culture to his ceiling right now at RB twelve again,

255
00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:46,800
Speaker 3: and I rather just pass and if you know, he

256
00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:48,800
Speaker 3: say he's healthy another year and holds out Bucky Irving,

257
00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,040
Speaker 3: so be it. But he's just then a range where

258
00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:55,040
Speaker 3: I'm typically avoiding running back anyway, and he's just another

259
00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,600
Speaker 3: back that he just checks a lot of boxes for

260
00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:01,040
Speaker 3: me to avoid him. And another back sort of in

261
00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:05,679
Speaker 3: the frozen pond tier range is Ramandre Stevenson at RB twenty.

262
00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:08,400
Speaker 3: You know, he's coming off of down here. He was

263
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:12,280
Speaker 3: just RB thirty two in points per game. It's it's

264
00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:14,400
Speaker 3: really hard to see him bouncing back too much this year.

265
00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,400
Speaker 3: You know, the Pats offensive line is still an issue.

266
00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:21,320
Speaker 1: The offense that's like probably the biggest unders and it

267
00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:23,720
Speaker 1: might be like it might be, it might be one

268
00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,160
Speaker 1: of the worst offensive line we've seen this decade. And

269
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:30,440
Speaker 1: that's why it is. It is in rough shape, right

270
00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:31,640
Speaker 1: rough shape.

271
00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:35,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, got Jacoby's brissette hurt a week tend too, how

272
00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,200
Speaker 3: bad it was. So the offense is going to struggle again,

273
00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,560
Speaker 3: so it probably won't set him up for many goaline scores.

274
00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,080
Speaker 3: The one good thing about Stevenson is you know there're

275
00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:46,720
Speaker 3: gonna be a ton of trailing, trailing game scripts. That's

276
00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,640
Speaker 3: not ann equal rush attempts, but it'll equal check downs

277
00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,520
Speaker 3: and more passing work. But you know, the Pats brought

278
00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,560
Speaker 3: in Antonio Gibson, who's more of a past catching specialist,

279
00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:57,280
Speaker 3: so that could be eating into some of the more

280
00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:01,440
Speaker 3: valuable snaps that Stevenson could or should in this offense.

281
00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:03,400
Speaker 3: So there's just a lot of red flags here. I think,

282
00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,600
Speaker 3: you know, he's gonna be the lead back. They paid

283
00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:08,000
Speaker 3: him like one, but I just don't like the situation

284
00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:12,000
Speaker 3: going in this year. He hasn't been efficient, so he's

285
00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,600
Speaker 3: just the guy at RB twenty. Again, give me David

286
00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:18,560
Speaker 3: Montgomery who's probably gonna put up RB twenty numbers if

287
00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:20,680
Speaker 3: Jamior Gibbs is healthy, but if gives miss his time

288
00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,440
Speaker 3: as a top five back. So just I'd rather attack

289
00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,240
Speaker 3: guys in this range that I think have a higher ceiling,

290
00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,240
Speaker 3: whereas Stevenson, I just think he has a low, low

291
00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,360
Speaker 3: floor ceiling combo in this range. So this is just

292
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,200
Speaker 3: a part in the draft run typically not draft and

293
00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,280
Speaker 3: running back, especially backs that have a few red flags

294
00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:39,160
Speaker 3: like Stevenson does.

295
00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, we really don't know just how

296
00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:46,640
Speaker 1: much of that passing down work Gibson is going to

297
00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,600
Speaker 1: cut into but I mean the fact that they went

298
00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,240
Speaker 1: out and signed him, you would think that's that's what

299
00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:55,160
Speaker 1: they that they signed him for. So yeah, you know,

300
00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:56,880
Speaker 1: I don't think you want to be an early down

301
00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:01,280
Speaker 1: back on this Patriots offense this year because I mean

302
00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,560
Speaker 1: that that offensive line is really fragile. I mean, you know,

303
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,160
Speaker 1: you got a couple of pieces, but you also got

304
00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,880
Speaker 1: a couple of just I mean really big question marks.

305
00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:13,040
Speaker 1: And yeah, Cole Strange is already starting on the PP

306
00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,080
Speaker 1: and it's just a man. I mean, it's just it

307
00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,960
Speaker 1: could get really bad really quickly, and it already has

308
00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:22,600
Speaker 1: been pretty bad for much of camp. So definitely a

309
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:26,760
Speaker 1: concern there with uh, with Stevenson and and and Gibson

310
00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,840
Speaker 1: for that man, and and just the entire offense. For me,

311
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,200
Speaker 1: I got a couple of guys that are going into

312
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,480
Speaker 1: the season injured, and I feel like every year this

313
00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:45,240
Speaker 1: is where uh, fantasy rankers and thus people who UH draft,

314
00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:49,800
Speaker 1: you know, fantasy drafters struggle, and that is properly valuing

315
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:54,080
Speaker 1: players that are gonna miss a certain amount of games.

316
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,560
Speaker 1: And the first guys, Nick Chubb, He's the RB thirty

317
00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:02,040
Speaker 1: two and eighty p I have him forty four, and

318
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:09,280
Speaker 1: per Brown's reporter Tony Grossi from ESPN, the Browns have

319
00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,960
Speaker 1: always and I quote the Browns have always targeted late

320
00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:17,680
Speaker 1: October as a timetable for Nick Chubb's return to practice.

321
00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:22,080
Speaker 1: So late October that's when they're targeting just to open

322
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:24,840
Speaker 1: his practice window. Now, remember, you could practice for I

323
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:26,320
Speaker 1: think it's up to like three weeks, you know, and

324
00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:29,320
Speaker 1: they don't even have to activate you. So late October

325
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:33,720
Speaker 1: means he probably returns to practice after their week seven

326
00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:37,720
Speaker 1: game October twentieth against Cincinnati, which means the earliest he

327
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,679
Speaker 1: could play is Week eight against Baltimore. But they have

328
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,919
Speaker 1: a bye in week ten, and if they're targeting, you know,

329
00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:49,080
Speaker 1: late October return to practice, it sounds like they want

330
00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:51,080
Speaker 1: to hold him out through that buy And that makes

331
00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:53,840
Speaker 1: sense because he had two surgeries. The second one was

332
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:57,800
Speaker 1: in November, so you know, returning after that buye in

333
00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:02,280
Speaker 1: early November would be just about a year since the

334
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:06,080
Speaker 1: second surgery. So you're looking at best case scenario if

335
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:11,120
Speaker 1: he returns, you know, at the at the the optimistic

336
00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:14,640
Speaker 1: end of the timeline, you're looking at ten games of availability,

337
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,280
Speaker 1: and in a worst case scenario, you're looking at seven

338
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 1: games of availability if he returns after the buys, so

339
00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:24,119
Speaker 1: seven to ten games of availability, and that's before you

340
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:28,440
Speaker 1: factor in he could get injured again, he could reinjure

341
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,920
Speaker 1: himself or just have a whole new injury. Remember, running

342
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:35,160
Speaker 1: backs missed on average about fifteen percent of their games,

343
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:37,600
Speaker 1: you know, fifteen to twenty percent of their games each year.

344
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:43,160
Speaker 1: So you know, you're talking about like a projection of

345
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,159
Speaker 1: you know, seven and a half eight eight and a

346
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:50,719
Speaker 1: half games realistically as a median for Nick Chubb, and

347
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,199
Speaker 1: you don't know if he's just gonna be Nick Chubb

348
00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:56,919
Speaker 1: who gets you know, sixteen to twenty carries and is

349
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,080
Speaker 1: one of the most efficient backs in the league because

350
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 1: of the injury and getting up there in age, so

351
00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:03,960
Speaker 1: just too many question marks. I know people are trying

352
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,199
Speaker 1: to target him for the fantasy playoffs, I get it,

353
00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 1: but there's no guarant Like you're you're still at a

354
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,640
Speaker 1: range where there's a lot of other value you could

355
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:14,560
Speaker 1: take that you can get, you know, a full season's

356
00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 1: worth of value, whether it's a light round quarterback there

357
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,560
Speaker 1: or just another running back in that in that tier,

358
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 1: or wide receiver. There's just so many other ways you

359
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 1: can go. I think that are better than taking Nick

360
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 1: Chubb here, because there's just no guarantee that he even

361
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 1: is giving you the production you're looking for when you're

362
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,000
Speaker 1: looking for it, you know, there's just a lot of

363
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:40,200
Speaker 1: uncertainty because they're they're they're essentially saying he's gonna miss

364
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 1: half the season, and that is that's that's not RB

365
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,639
Speaker 1: thirty two value. And then the other guy, Jonathan Brooks

366
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:50,880
Speaker 1: is RB thirty three. He's my RB forty seven and

367
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,439
Speaker 1: kind of same deal. Starting the season on the pup

368
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 1: had surgery December fifth for for his torn ACL and

369
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 1: given that late surgery date, he's also a candidate to

370
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,159
Speaker 1: only be available for about half the season. Now, you know,

371
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:11,120
Speaker 1: they haven't given any indication that he's going to miss

372
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,360
Speaker 1: as much time as Chubb or given a definitive kind

373
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 1: of timetable, but there is no timetable. That's not good.

374
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,399
Speaker 1: And Hubbard played well last year. We've talked about this.

375
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,159
Speaker 1: Sanders is making big money. There's no real incentive to

376
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,399
Speaker 1: make a guy who you did spend Day two draft

377
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 1: capital on, you know, to rush him back. There's just

378
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:35,080
Speaker 1: no incentive to do that. So I just think RB

379
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 1: thirty three is rich, and I don't think you're guaranteed

380
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 1: like this. You know, RB two guy who's getting fifteen

381
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,439
Speaker 1: to twenty touches come playoff time, he might be in

382
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:50,479
Speaker 1: a committee all season long because he's he missed off

383
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 1: of camp. He's a rookie, and he had surgery December fifth,

384
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,360
Speaker 1: so you know they're probably gonna be a ramp up period,

385
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,119
Speaker 1: so he would only be a year remove for that

386
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 1: final month. So I would much rather have Jerome Ford

387
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 1: at RB forty rather than Chubb at RB thirty two.

388
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 1: And I would much rather have Tuba Hubbard at RB

389
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 1: forty five than Brooks at RB thirty three.

390
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been looking at like some even recent ADP

391
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,400
Speaker 3: with Brooks and he's still going right around like RB

392
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 3: twenty nine in some best fall sights. It just doesn't

393
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,680
Speaker 3: make any sense. This is kind of like Jamison Williams

394
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 3: last year, Like are people aware that he's missing you know,

395
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 3: a handful of games to start the season. Like it's

396
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 3: puzzling to me. And this is my favorite running back

397
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 3: from this draft class. I'm saying, yeah, he's great.

398
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 1: I love the talent, but you can't like first we

399
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 1: know running backs, it comes. It comes down to being

400
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: on the field for snacks first and foremost, right like

401
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 1: you could you don't even have to be that good.

402
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,360
Speaker 1: But yeah, talent is great only if you can use

403
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: that talent. And right now these guys aren't you know,

404
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 1: they're already gonna miss four Chubby. They've told us that,

405
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 1: you know, he's not going to be back until late October.

406
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 1: And if you read between the tea leaves for Brooks,

407
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 1: he had surgery December fifth, and there's you know, there's

408
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 1: other guys in that backfield. There's no you know, there's

409
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 1: no point in rushing back. So yeah, I don't get it.

410
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 1: But again, I think this is something that even even

411
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 1: like seasoned fantasy experts struggle with, which is projecting the

412
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 1: range of outcomes when you have a definite number of

413
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 1: miss games to start, you have that four miss games

414
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,639
Speaker 1: to start, but then there's an uncertainty as to how

415
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,199
Speaker 1: many more games you could miss, And you also have

416
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 1: to factor in the positional injury rate. So it's not

417
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,919
Speaker 1: just Okay, he comes back and is available for you know,

418
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 1: eleven games, so now he could there's still an injury

419
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 1: rate where he could get hurt in within those eleven

420
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: games again with a different injury, because that's just the

421
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: nature of the running back is so uh, that's why

422
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 1: I tend to fade running backs coming into the year

423
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 1: hurt more often. It'll burn you every once in a while,

424
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 1: like it burned me with Breis Hall, although his best

425
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 1: game was was in the game last game of the season,

426
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,879
Speaker 1: when you know the fantasy season was over because they

427
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 1: were trying to get into a thousand. But it'll burn

428
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 1: you here and there, But more often than not, it's

429
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 1: gonna payoffs and there's like other there's still gonna be alternatives.

430
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 1: That's the whole point. There's alternatives that you could draft

431
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 1: if you're looking for for upside in that range. So yeah,

432
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: fading Chubb, fading Johnson Brooks as well, we'll go to

433
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 1: a wide receiver. But just want to once again remind

434
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 1: everyone all of our fantasy football content this season is

435
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 1: at Fantasy labs dot com. We are two of the

436
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,919
Speaker 1: top five most accurate rankers over the past three seasons

437
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 1: according to Fantasy Pros in their season long accuracy, and

438
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:48,160
Speaker 1: all of our fantasy rankings and projections for twenty twenty four,

439
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 1: along with Kerner's famous tiers and more are at Fantasy

440
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 1: labs dot com and you could get twenty dollars off

441
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,080
Speaker 1: our twenty twenty four draft kit by using the pro

442
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 1: code flex twenty that's fl e x two zero at

443
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 1: fantasylabs dot com slash flex. That's twenty dollars off at

444
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 1: Fantasy labs dot com slash flex with promo code fl

445
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: ex to zero one more thing, this is exciting. I

446
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 1: always love this. The Favorites podcast. Our friends over at

447
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: the Favorites they're running a one hundred thousand dollars Pro

448
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 1: Football Pick them contest. It's efficiently back and if you're

449
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 1: new here. Last season, our friends over at the Favorites

450
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: they run a totally free NFL Pick Them contest to

451
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 1: pick five against the spread each week and we awarded

452
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 1: over one hundred k and cash prizes to our listeners,

453
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: including a first place prize of forty thousand dollars. And

454
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 1: we're running the back this season, baby, same website. Sign

455
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 1: up at Favorites dot Action network dot com, same structure.

456
00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 1: It's totally free to play five picks each week night

457
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 1: football tiebreaker and it's got the same season long prizes.

458
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: Top ten finishers get paid, first place gets forty thousand dollars.

459
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 1: There's thousands in cash up for grabs each and every week.

460
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 1: Is there a catch? Nope, got nutnawus So sign up

461
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 1: at favorites, do action network dot com. All right, wide

462
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 1: receiver last year, I had Jamison Williams and Cadarius Tony

463
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 1: so yeah that that worked out. And you had Jmo

464
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,880
Speaker 1: as well and uh so one for two one for two.

465
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I love a uh he was a

466
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 3: top twelve receiver and then finished like wide receiver twenty.

467
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 2: That's like, yeah, it's.

468
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 1: Right.

469
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah he wasn't.

470
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 1: I mean he wasn't he was he was okay, like

471
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 1: he I wouldn't consider him a bus but yeah, what

472
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 1: what he didn't beat DP?

473
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: Yeah?

474
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 3: What receivers like went in that range? I think that

475
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 3: that would that's a good question. I'm on Rob was

476
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 3: wide receiver ten last year.

477
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on Rock Lamb Lamb was down there. I think, yeah,

478
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 1: there's there are definitely some other guys that give you begs.

479
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll take I'll take an ell on a

480
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 2: love of it though.

481
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 1: I mean know, like you said, he didn't meat ADPs,

482
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 1: but he didn't flat out bust. But yeah, you're on

483
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 1: the right track there or neutral? Who you got?

484
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 2: Who do you? Who?

485
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 1: Do you got? Busted at wide receiver for twenty twenty four?

486
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, this, this one wide receiver is tricky because I

487
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 3: love targeting guys at all different levels. But I think

488
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 3: this guy represents UH specifically, somebody that I've been kind

489
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 3: of avoiding just by default. Is Christian Kirk at wide

490
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,919
Speaker 3: receiver thirty three. You know, I still think he's going

491
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 3: to be the number one wide receiver in this offense.

492
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 3: But you know, Evan Ingram's still probably going to be

493
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 3: the top target. But I think that when it comes

494
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 3: to which Jaguars wide receiver I want to invest in,

495
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 3: it's been all about Brian Thomas Junior a little bit

496
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 3: later on. So just the gap between these two receivers

497
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 3: I'm much closer on. You know, the ADP right now

498
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 3: has Christian Kirk at wide receiver thirty three, Brian Thomas

499
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 3: Junior at wide receiver forty six. My rank has them

500
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 3: Kirk at wide receiver thirty six and Thomas Junior at

501
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 3: wide receiver thirty nine. So I just think you're getting

502
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 3: much more value. I think, you know, Brian Thomas Junior

503
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,679
Speaker 3: is going to get the more fancy, friendly targets, you know,

504
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 3: downfield and in the red zone. So I just think

505
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 3: Kirk's going a little bit high. And this is also

506
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 3: the ranger receiver where I'm using this time to load

507
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 3: up at other positions. You know, I'm trying to get

508
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 3: some elite receivers early. And then we've talked about length.

509
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 3: With the wide receivers forty to fifty five, there's just

510
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 3: so many guys have the ton of upside. So Kirk

511
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 3: to me just kind of represents sort of a dead

512
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 3: zone at wide receiver, specifically him right, rather just attack

513
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,719
Speaker 3: his teammate a bit later on. Plus there's some buzz

514
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 3: that he could come off the field a bit in

515
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 3: two wide receiver sets. You know, they have Thomas Junior

516
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 3: and Gabe Davis. Now we've seen that happened in the past,

517
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 3: but just due to injuries, he stayed in on two

518
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:03,439
Speaker 3: receiver sets.

519
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 2: So I'm not like that low on Kirk, but I

520
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 2: just think that when.

521
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 3: You're taking him at you know, wide receiver thirty three,

522
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 3: you're passing up on I think a better value on

523
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 3: the same team and Thomas Junior, and just at this

524
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 3: point in the draft, you should probably be attacking other positions.

525
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:22,360
Speaker 3: And then my other receiver I think has bust potential

526
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,680
Speaker 3: as Jordan Addison in that wide receiver forty four range.

527
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 3: You know, I was really high on him as a rookie.

528
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 3: I'm still high on him as a talent long term,

529
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 3: but just he has some concerns heading into this year.

530
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 3: Right off the bat, it's just gonna be hard for

531
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 3: him to duplicate his ten touchdowns from his rookie season.

532
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 3: You know this, this offense itself should take a step

533
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 3: back with you know, Sam Darnold replacing Kirk Cousins. Addison

534
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 3: also benefited from Justin Jefferson missing seven plus games last year,

535
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 3: so you're gonna bank on you know, Jefferson potentially staying

536
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 3: healthier this year. And Addison himself is dealing with an

537
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 3: ankle injury that you know, probably won't have a Missweek one,

538
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 3: but you know, it might take him a couple of

539
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 3: games to get back to one hundred percent, or maybe

540
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 3: he tweaks it and reinjures it. It's just something to monitor,

541
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 3: and he could also face some sort of suspension for

542
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 3: his off field issues over the summer. It's always hard

543
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 3: to fact that in the projections, but just it's added

544
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 3: risk as all, but again it comes with opportunity costs

545
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 3: because there's so many receivers in this range I think

546
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 3: could be potential league winners that if you take him

547
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 3: in this range, you're passing up on those guys as well.

548
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 3: So Jordan Essen's a guy for me that I think

549
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 3: is just going at a range where I'm not getting

550
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 3: much of him, so I think he has best potential here.

551
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I'm with you. I like the talent, but

552
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 1: this just doesn't seem like the year. It seems like

553
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 1: last year is the year to take him, and maybe

554
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: next year will be with this year, yeah, you know,

555
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 1: just just kind of shaping up really shaky for Addison.

556
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: For me, the first guy is kind of another guy

557
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 1: who I like the talent, but and when you kind

558
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: of break down the numbers, I see a lot of

559
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: bus potential with and that's Jayden Reed at wide receiver

560
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 1: thirty six. Now, he had a sixty four percent route

561
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 1: participation rate last year, but that was despite Christian Watson

562
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 1: missing nine games, Wix missing a couple, Musgrave, who played

563
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 1: in the slot a lot, at tight end he missed

564
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: six games, and Reed still kind of capped out at like,

565
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 1: you know, sixty five seventy percent snap rate because he

566
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 1: doesn't play much in one two personnel when you know

567
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: there's two tight ends on the field, which you know

568
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: the Packers have Muskrave and Crafts, so could see more

569
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 1: of that this year. And then you have Watson, you

570
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 1: have Romeo Dobbs and don Tavian Wicks. You have three

571
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: other really good receivers that are all going to kind

572
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 1: of rotate here. And when you look at the touchdowns,

573
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 1: you like a guy who could score touchdowns. So I'm

574
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 1: not knocking him for that, but ten touchdowns on seventy

575
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 1: five touches is unsustainable for five to eleven one hundred

576
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 1: and ninety pounds slot guy, and he's likely going to

577
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 1: be inconsistent even if he ends up finishing around wide

578
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 1: receiver thirty six. Last season, he played sixteen games, and

579
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 1: six of his finishes were forty seventh or worse. But

580
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 1: really it's more like eight of eighteen, so almost half

581
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: his games. Because if you expand a sample and look

582
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 1: at his two playoff games, which I think are relevant

583
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: because everyone was healthy for those games. His first playoff game,

584
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 1: he goosegged against Dallas despite the Packers putting up forty

585
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: eight points. He played twenty six snaps. His route participation

586
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 1: rate was just over fifty percent, yet he didn't record

587
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 1: any stats. I think he had three targets, no catches,

588
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 1: nothing running the football, and then against San Francisco four

589
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: catches for thirty five yards and a carry for nine yards,

590
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: no touchdowns. That's well within the range of outcomes. So

591
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 1: even last year when he scored ten total touchdowns, eight

592
00:31:56,800 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 1: receiving and two rushing, he was still essentially a non

593
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 1: factor in eight of eighteen games, so nearly half of

594
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 1: his games, and if you factor in some touchdown regression,

595
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 1: that could easily go to you know, ten eleven, twelve

596
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 1: of it, you know, two thirds of his games. So

597
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 1: I just think that he's gonna go off at times,

598
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 1: but he's probably a better best ball investment, just because

599
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 1: you really don't know when, and I think he's a

600
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 1: little bit too inconsistent for you know, the wide receiver

601
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 1: thirty six, considering the other guys you could get in

602
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 1: this range that there's still you know, you could still get.

603
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: I talked about on the Sleepers Pod, guys like DeAndre Hopkins,

604
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:44,239
Speaker 1: Courtland Sutton, Josh Palmer, Deontay Johnson. After Reed and all

605
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: those guys are gonna play a lot more snaps. You

606
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:50,239
Speaker 1: could still get guys like Roma doonse Xavier Worthy like.

607
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 1: You could get guys going later with just as much

608
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 1: or even more upside with higher you know, better, more

609
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: fantasy friendly targets in in better situations. So I think

610
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 1: Reid is risky because I think he's going to be inconsistent.

611
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 1: And another guy is Curtis Samuel at wide receiver fifty.

612
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: He's the Bills receiver that I am the lowest on.

613
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 1: I do like Shakir, like Coleman, I think he has

614
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 1: the most touchdown upside. But Samuel, he's already in year

615
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 1: eight and he's topped out at eight hundred and fifty

616
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 1: one receiving yards and six touchdowns, and that was his

617
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 1: only time, you know, even going over you know, seven hundred.

618
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 1: So he's generally been a low aid dot slot, low

619
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 1: yard per reception slot guy. He's probably going to be

620
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,479
Speaker 1: forced to play more outside, where he's a little bit

621
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 1: less efficient. He's already twenty eight, Coleman's twenty one, Shakers

622
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 1: twenty four, and Dalton kin Kate is twenty five. So

623
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: just from that vantage point, I think he's the lowest

624
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 1: upside bet among these guys that he's going in the

625
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 1: same rage as Coleman and Shakir. And yes, I know

626
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 1: Joe Brady loves him, but even if he leads the

627
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: team in targets, he's still going to be inconsistent. And

628
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 1: I still think there's gonna be a cap ceil because

629
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:08,919
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna run away with that that lead.

630
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 1: And I don't think he profiles as a high touchdown

631
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 1: guy either, So I have him actually a lot closer

632
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: to wide receiver seventy and I actually do project him

633
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: to take quite a few carries as well. But I

634
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 1: still just I don't think that he profiles as a

635
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: type of receiver that that that I want to invest

636
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 1: in in this Bill's offense. I just think he's going

637
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 1: to be way too inconsistent, almost like Kahuil Shakir last year.

638
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 1: You know, early in the year when Stefan Diggs and

639
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:43,360
Speaker 1: Gave Davis were still kind of you know, the Alphas,

640
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: and Shakira was just kind of touch and go rope.

641
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 1: You never knew what you're gonna get from him. So

642
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 1: that's how I see Samuel, So I don't think he

643
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 1: hits wide receiver fifty Yeah, and he's he's been injury

644
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 1: prone in the past and he's during the season nursing

645
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 1: at tow injury, which I don't love considering he relies

646
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 1: on his speed. So yeah, I'm out on Samuel.

647
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, going back to Jayden Reid for a second, I

648
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 3: do agree with your points, but you touched on it.

649
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 3: And how the hell are they going to keep don

650
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 3: Tavian Wis off the field.

651
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: I don't know, he's so good. Maybe too many receivers.

652
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 3: So yeah, like Jayden Reid, we saw last year some

653
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 3: games who was topping out at like sixty five percent

654
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 3: routes run roads games. Yeah, I just think that all

655
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:28,760
Speaker 3: these four are going to rotate in and out. Maybe

656
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 3: Dobbs is the safest bet for playing time, but just

657
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 3: Wix has looked so good that when they're all healthy,

658
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 3: it's any given like you said, any given week, they.

659
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 2: Can go off. Maybe best Ball is the formats to

660
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 2: take these guys.

661
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 1: But see he's still the most expensive Yeah, right, exactly,

662
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's tough to like Justify. And the thing is,

663
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 1: I know people are going to say, well he finished

664
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 1: as a top twenty five receiver and he's going at

665
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 1: thirty six, so you're already getting a discount. But like

666
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 1: I said, I broke it down. He basically was a

667
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 1: non factor in nearly half of his games, even with

668
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 1: scoring ten touchdowns, So we know those are volatile. If

669
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 1: those are gress I just don't see a way really,

670
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 1: you know, barring like a season ending injury for one

671
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,920
Speaker 1: of those guys, for him to to to kind of

672
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: jump past that sixty five to seventy percent SNAT rate,

673
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:18,839
Speaker 1: which which really hurts when you're a low eight hot

674
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 1: slot guy because he's I mean, even though he scored

675
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: ten touchdowns. I mean you consider if if you have Watson, Dobbs, Craft,

676
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 1: musk Grave, Josh Jacobs, like is it you would kind

677
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 1: of consider reader like the least likely guy to score touchdowns,

678
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 1: like projecting going forward, you know, just based on the

679
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,720
Speaker 1: body type and the type of targets he's going yet so.

680
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 2: Touchdown project exact point, right.

681
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean even you know, two touchdowns on

682
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 1: eleven carries, that's even that's tough, tough, tough to repeat.

683
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: So yeah, like that the play, like the fact that

684
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 1: he just completely face planted in two playoff games, including

685
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,399
Speaker 1: one where Green Bay Gold scored excuse me, forty eight

686
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 1: points I think is a red flag. All right, let's

687
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:14,400
Speaker 1: finish it up with tight end. We both nailed Greg

688
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 1: Dosig as a busted last year, and you I feel

689
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 1: like you have this love hate relationship with Dalton Schultz,

690
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 1: who I also I think faded on and he killed

691
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:27,439
Speaker 1: me on a I think I had his underyardage. Yeah, yeah,

692
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 1: I didn't bang on CJ. Stroud being the second covering.

693
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 2: Of my homes.

694
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 1: But yeah, we did nail dose It Dulsage, so we

695
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 1: got this year.

696
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Dallas Goddart tight end twelve. And

697
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 3: it's funny because I have ranked tight end twelve. But

698
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,240
Speaker 3: you know, this is the time where I always caution

699
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 3: people when you take like the last tight end in

700
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:56,439
Speaker 3: a draft, say it's tight End twelve, to not get

701
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 3: too stubborn or attached to the tight end because you

702
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,800
Speaker 3: did spend some draft capital. You need to be looking

703
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 3: for a potential league winner as soon as Week one ends,

704
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 3: and we saw that last year with you know, Trey McBride,

705
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 3: Jake Ferguson, even Dalton Kincaid was available in some leagues.

706
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 3: You just have to be willing to cut bait. So

707
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 3: I just if you do take Goddar, you just have

708
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 3: to have an open mind. But I just think that

709
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 3: his his ceiling is a bit lower this year. You know,

710
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 3: there was some underline concerns with god Her I had,

711
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 3: you know, at Saquon Barkley joining the mix, that that's

712
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 3: another person he's going to be competing for targets for.

713
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 2: Specifically, I think.

714
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 3: But they also just brought in Johan Dotson, you know,

715
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 3: a former first round pick just a couple of years ago.

716
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:43,279
Speaker 3: I wouldn't write him off quite yet, say what you

717
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 3: will about him, but he will be an upgrade on

718
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 3: the wide receiver three position, so that that could eat

719
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 3: into Dallas Goddard again specifically, I think, you know, aj

720
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 3: Brown and DeVonta Smith are going to get their share targets,

721
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 3: so I think that that could come at Dallas Goddard's expense.

722
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:03,319
Speaker 3: And he's you know, dealing with a bleaque injury might

723
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:06,359
Speaker 3: be totally fine for Week one, could flare up, so

724
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 3: it's just another red flag for Goddard. I'd rather just

725
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 3: take a flyer on a guy like Brock Bowers that

726
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 3: has you know, top five upside. Actually this year, I'm

727
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 3: just drafting a top eight tight end. I'm not even yea, So.

728
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 1: I agree, I totally agree because yeah, you've mentioned God

729
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: and I'll say it before, and it's actually surprising when

730
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 1: you look at it, but Goddard has in six seasons,

731
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 1: He's never he's never hit sixty catches in a year,

732
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:38,279
Speaker 1: and yeah, and he's uh only topped eight hundred yards.

733
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: He only topped seven hundred and two yards once. He

734
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 1: had eight thirty twenty twenty one.

735
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:47,919
Speaker 3: Two of those seasons with no zach Ertz or two

736
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 3: and a half, Like how many seasons?

737
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 2: Was twenty one? Was? Was?

738
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 1: Was irt? Like Ertz was there half the year?

739
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:56,320
Speaker 2: Right was that twenty? I think that was twenty twenty twenty.

740
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 1: One, twenty twenty one Erz was there half the year

741
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 1: and now actually got its best year, and then twenty

742
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 1: twenty two he would have been on pace to have

743
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 1: his best season, but he only played twelve games, and

744
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 1: then last year he played fourteen, so he hasn't he's

745
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: actually his game's played over the past four eleven, fifteen, twelve, fourteen,

746
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 1: So he's missed multiple games in each of the past

747
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 1: four seasons, and so the fact that he's starting, he's

748
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:24,760
Speaker 1: already nursing an injury is is not non ideal.

749
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think part of it is the tush

750
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 3: push taking away so many goal line scores. You know,

751
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:32,879
Speaker 3: maybe he would have had a couple more touchdowns over

752
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 3: the past couple of years. But yeah, just the guy

753
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 3: that I feel bad because I was, you know, complaining

754
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 3: for years about zach Ertz being there to unleash Goddart

755
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 3: and here I am saying he's a bust and the

756
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 3: other guy along the same lines as like Greg Dolcic

757
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 3: last year. He's a tight end I do think is

758
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:52,399
Speaker 3: very talented, younger tight end.

759
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 2: That's Cole Kmet. You know, I'm elevating all the.

760
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:59,919
Speaker 3: Bears pass catcher projections just because Caleb Williams I think

761
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 3: looks way more ready as a rookie than even I thought.

762
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 3: But with just the Bears also bringing in two high

763
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 3: end wide receivers and Keyan Allen and Romo Dunes, you know,

764
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,839
Speaker 3: that's Canaden Comet's target share. But the one concern I'm

765
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 3: having is it sounds like Gerald Everett, who they brought in,

766
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 3: is going to be getting more playing time than I

767
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 3: think people expect. So he's just a guy that he's

768
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:25,879
Speaker 3: off my radar as like, you know, a late round

769
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 3: tight end. He'd be a guy only in best ball

770
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 3: I would consider taking. But even then I'm down on him.

771
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 3: So Cole Comett is another guy I think is being

772
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:35,839
Speaker 3: overdrafted right now.

773
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, because Shane Waldron is the offensive coordinator, the new

774
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:43,080
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator in Chicago, and it kind of reminds me

775
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:47,760
Speaker 1: of a similar situation. You know, Waldron had no offense,

776
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 1: and no offense, was a guy who you know he

777
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 1: would be on the field like eighty eighty five percent

778
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:56,439
Speaker 1: of the routes and you know, a talented pass catcher,

779
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden Waldron comes and fans in

780
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:03,440
Speaker 1: this like three way committee with uh. I mean was

781
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 1: it every one year? I know last year it was

782
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 1: like Parkinson and will Disley. Uh, And so fan was

783
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 1: kind of topping out at like fifty five sixty percent

784
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:14,759
Speaker 1: and became a complete fantasy non factor. So uh, that's

785
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:16,879
Speaker 1: definitely concern with commit In addition to the fact that

786
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 1: you have three of the best receivers in the league

787
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 1: on this team now, so well you know two and

788
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:25,839
Speaker 1: then you know, a dude, say, who's a top ten

789
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 1: pick and could be one of the best. So yeah,

790
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:31,439
Speaker 1: it's it's probably pointing down to just it's just such

791
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 1: a tough position. It's like no one to pick tight end.

792
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 1: I totally agree, I want a top eight guy because

793
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 1: even the Djoku, it's like he was terrible with Watson,

794
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 1: so is you know, are they going to figure it

795
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,479
Speaker 1: out or or what so that that's even that's a risk.

796
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 1: But I got The guy that really stands out to

797
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:52,879
Speaker 1: me is another guy that I think is being overvalued.

798
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 1: Uh you know, because he's starting the year on the

799
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 1: pup and people think, Okay, I'm gonna get him for

800
00:42:59,560 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 1: the stretch.

801
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 2: And that's t J.

802
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:05,919
Speaker 1: Hockinson at tight in fourteen and I have him about

803
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 1: ten spots lower. And the reason being he tore his

804
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:13,839
Speaker 1: ACL and mcl didn't have surgery until January twenty ninth, right,

805
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 1: so you're talking about, hey, this is still fresh. He

806
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 1: no guarantee to return when first eligible in week five.

807
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 1: If he you know, whenever he does return, he's returning

808
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 1: to a different not as good quarterback. You know, whether

809
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:33,839
Speaker 1: it's probably gonna be Donald maybe you know, Mullens or

810
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 1: one of those guys. But her Cousins is not walking

811
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 1: through that door. And you also, because he had surgery,

812
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:45,839
Speaker 1: you know, January twenty ninth. If he does return at

813
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 1: any you know, decent time, that's going to be a

814
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:54,839
Speaker 1: very quick return. And that means there could be a

815
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 1: ramp up period. That means he might not play a

816
00:43:56,960 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 1: full compliment of snaps. That means his performance is actual

817
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 1: efficiency may suffer. And I just don't think it's a

818
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 1: good strategy, like you said, Sean to wait this long

819
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 1: for a tight end. They just get a top eight guy,

820
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 1: because in Hockinson's range, you can get a high upside

821
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:17,440
Speaker 1: fire at running back. You know, you could get a

822
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 1: true be Hubbard, you could get a Zeke Elliott, you

823
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 1: can you could at wide receiver. You know, guys like

824
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 1: Josh Palmer and guys like that who could be number

825
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 1: one receivers for their team are available. So I think

826
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 1: it's a much better draft strategy to just make sure

827
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:34,919
Speaker 1: you're good at tight end and then you know you're

828
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 1: you're still gonna have a good a good receiving corps

829
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:42,400
Speaker 1: and and and you could just build your depth at

830
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 1: that running back or receiver essentially your flex depth here

831
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 1: or take a weight round quarterback or whatever. I just

832
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 1: don't think it's good strategy to wait this long and

833
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 1: kind of bank on Hockinson just returning to you know,

834
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:59,360
Speaker 1: top five tight end value that he was with Cousins.

835
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 1: It's just there's you got, first of all, you're competing

836
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 1: with Jefferson and Addison. Still the quarterback's not as good,

837
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 1: so you might not even be throwing as much. And

838
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:12,920
Speaker 1: this was a very recent serious injury for Hackins. And

839
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 1: so yeah, don't don't like anything about it. I get

840
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 1: why some people might say, I mean, tight end is

841
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:21,799
Speaker 1: kind of a wasteland. You mentioned Commit and Goddard, who

842
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:24,880
Speaker 1: are what the tight end twelve and fourteen or thirteen?

843
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 1: So like, I get why people are like, all right,

844
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 1: you know, TJ. Hockinson a tight end fourteen at least

845
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 1: at least he you know, was putting up top five numbers.

846
00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:36,400
Speaker 1: But again, you have to account for the uncertainty and

847
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 1: the fact that he's just not gonna automatically come back

848
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 1: and perform at that range. And when you factor all

849
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:43,840
Speaker 1: that stuff in, I think he's being way overdrafted. And

850
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 1: there's just a lot I think any other position would

851
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 1: be a much much better pick where he's gone and

852
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 1: one more guy. I'll just quickly mention Benson. No, he's

853
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 1: going at tight end twenty three. Again, zac Urge is

854
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: going to start the seasons number one tight end. So

855
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 1: there's no point in drafting Benson no tight end twenty three.

856
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 1: Draft Zach Ertz at tight end thirty one or he's

857
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 1: gonna run like yeah, or draft neither right or draft me.

858
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:08,399
Speaker 1: But but at least arts potentially gives like he could

859
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:11,799
Speaker 1: potentially be the number two target because eckwer Is, you know,

860
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 1: he's gonna be on and off the field and you

861
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 1: know so.

862
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:16,799
Speaker 2: And no more John Dotson and no.

863
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,799
Speaker 1: More John Dotson, So like there's there's a decent chance

864
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,879
Speaker 1: Ertz it catches you like an ugly you know, four

865
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:26,160
Speaker 1: and a half catches for like thirty nine hours. I mean,

866
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 1: it's still better than most of the other tight end

867
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 1: on his wasteland. So that but but the point is

868
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:34,320
Speaker 1: to know not only is he gonna start the season

869
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 1: behind hertz U, but he was playing behind John Bates,

870
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 1: who is kind of like the blocking so and thus

871
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:45,799
Speaker 1: default number two tight end. So yeah, I mean you

872
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 1: might be a year off on like I know, everyone's

873
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 1: looking for the next travite Bride, but and Ertz might

874
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 1: miss half the season like he normally does. But I

875
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 1: still I still think tight end twenty three. Uh, if

876
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 1: you're in like a vesketball leag were two tight and

877
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 1: we got I still think there's a lot better things

878
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:04,600
Speaker 1: you could do with that pick, and just better like

879
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 1: better tight ends like I would rather go ert You

880
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 1: could go with like a Kobe Parkinson who might play

881
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 1: like seventy eight percent of the snaps all year because

882
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 1: Hageby's hurt. I just I think this. I think snow

883
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:20,439
Speaker 1: is going way too way too high. Next year's prior

884
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 1: of the year to invest. All right, that is gonna

885
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:25,840
Speaker 1: do it for our Fantasy Bust episode for twenty twenty

886
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 1: four here on the Fantasy Flex. Make sure to subscribe

887
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 1: to the Fantasy Flex wherever you get your podcasts so

888
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 1: you don't miss an episode all season, and don't forget

889
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 1: to check out Fantasy labs dot com for all of

890
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 1: our fantasy football content. Don't forget to use the promo

891
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:45,120
Speaker 1: code Flex twenty for twenty dollars off a Fantasy Labs

892
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:49,240
Speaker 1: subscription right now at Fantasy labs dot com slash flex.

893
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:52,399
Speaker 1: You can find Sean on x at Fiandersparad's maker. I'm

894
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 1: at Chris Raybond. We're at those same handles on the

895
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 1: free award winning Action Network at until next time, it's

896
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 1: the fish Money. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

897
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:13,520
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

898
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

899
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:17,280
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler