WEBVTT - May Jobs Report, Crypto, and a Look at M&A 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:04.400 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.800 you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:13.600 plus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.600 analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:23.200 download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.160 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.840 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:31.800 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Let's talk about the monthly 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:35.720 Jost Report, talking about Yes exactly, U S employers hiring 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:38.040 at a robust clip in the month of May, wage 0:00:38.120 --> 0:00:41.440 gains holding firms suggesting the economy continues to power forward 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:43.559 as a FED raises interest rates at a steep pace 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:47.040 to tame red hot inflation. Is Mike McKee said, good report. 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:50.640 FED should be happy. Susan Arthur is the chief executive 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:53.320 officer of Career Builder. Susan joins us on the phone 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:55.840 from Philadelphia. Good to have you with us, Susan, do 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:58.920 you agree with our own International Economics and Policy correspondent. 0:00:58.960 --> 0:01:01.360 There's almost nothing in this report that that would make 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:04.760 the FED unhappy. Hey, thanks for having me on getting Yes, 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:08.639 I would agree, there's not too much to be unhappy about. Um, 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:14.479 we are pacing about eight hundred thousand jobs under pretty pandemic, 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:18.640 so obviously the continued growth here is is restoring us 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:21.920 to almost to pre pandemic levels. All Right, you sound 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:24.120 kind of worn out. Is it just the flow of news? 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:26.720 Is it that things are rough out there? Like? How 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:30.200 how would you assess the job market kind of compared 0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:34.040 to pre pandemic compared to the I mean it's listen, 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:36.920 to be fair, I'm exhausted, and we've got an alcohol 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:38.240 guest at the end of the show and they're not 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:41.400 sharing any alcoholic us. So I'm pretty pretty ticked off 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:45.399 right now. It's almost like this is like, actually true, Carol, 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:48.240 I mean, you're you're, you're. She's showing all our cards 0:01:48.320 --> 0:01:50.800 and being very real. Susan, I really am no, But 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:53.360 to be fair, tell us give us an assessment because 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:55.840 the job market is so important to what happened, especially 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:58.680 when we have so many big banks. Uh CEO is 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:02.880 talking about recession, not session. How do you see it, Yeah, 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:06.400 I would say so. So under the numbers, the big 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:09.679 movers are what we've been hearing, right, We're moving from 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:13.959 consumer goods to services, with the biggest gainers being leisure, hospitality, 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:17.799 professional and business services. What we see in our data 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:21.720 and the pulling we do with job seekers UM is 0:02:21.919 --> 0:02:25.359 there's still an incredible number of employed people in an 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:29.720 active search process. So while you know, lots of people 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:32.400 are employed, and we like the unemployment rate level and 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:35.680 the progress would participation rate, more fifty five year olds 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:38.120 came back to work this month, there are still a 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:41.040 lot of people looking to make a change. So that's 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:44.680 a good thing, right, That's a good and and and 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:46.840 I mean it's interesting to because your your point about 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:49.040 being exhausted. The other thing we got our most recent 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:53.799 pulling data is UM two thirds of people would choose 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:57.480 money versus an additional week off. That did surprise me 0:02:57.639 --> 0:03:01.040 considering sort of some of the burnout going on, right, UM. 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:04.800 But of the people looking for work, the younger generations 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:07.680 or to make moves, the younger generations are looking at 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:11.760 twice the rate of the older generations, literally twice the rate. UM. 0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:16.120 Lots of people prioritizing money first, followed by a flexible 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:20.440 schedule and remote work. So those trends are holding and gaining. Um. 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:22.800 So when we think about what's going to change over 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:24.960 this period, who's going to make moves? Where are they 0:03:25.040 --> 0:03:29.040 going to go? Where? Associate with growth in sectors? I 0:03:29.040 --> 0:03:32.200 would expect a lot more movement of the younger generations, 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:35.400 and that it isn't about culture or purpose, it is 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:38.600 money and flexibility will help us connect to this to 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:42.200 what it says about the economy and what happens in 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:45.400 an economy where workers feel like they have that choice, 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:48.240 they have that ability to move, doesn't that manifest itself 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:52.520 in higher wages and a higher quit rate? I would 0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:55.560 expect the higher quit rate to hold, whether or not 0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:58.000 the wage growth. I mean, I think that's by point 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:03.000 two percent um the months, uh is you know, obviously 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:05.920 to take down a little bit from last last year, 0:04:06.000 --> 0:04:09.880 but I mean from last months. But obviously there are 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:12.360 outliers in that. If you look at leisure and hospitality 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:15.720 significantly about pre pandemic levels. So I think you know, 0:04:15.920 --> 0:04:17.919 people are still going to jump. It isn't always going 0:04:17.960 --> 0:04:20.000 to be for money, but there's gonna be competitive pressure 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:22.520 on the employer employers for sure, Susan, I think what 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:25.040 you were saying is so fascinating about this whole idea 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:29.000 of people prioritizing money first. I had a fascinating conversation 0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:32.360 with an Uber driver yesterday and trying to buy a home, 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:35.760 talking about mortgage rates, talking about costs um talking about 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:37.280 what it costs to fill up his tank over a 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:40.200 hundred dollars, and just being like this is really rough, 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:43.960 searching for baby formula like this is real. This is 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:47.480 America talking and saying how difficult it is, and when 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:48.840 it comes down to it, you want to make sure 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:51.080 you have enough money to to you know, put a home, 0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:55.520 a roof over your family and feed them agreed in Like, 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:58.159 you know, if we went back pre pandemic, I would 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:01.640 expect our trending in the younger generation. Job secret to 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:06.600 lead with purpose, to lead with advancement, to a lead 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:10.559 with alignment to company culture. Those things are moving further 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:13.400 down and folks are focused on you know, food and 0:05:13.440 --> 0:05:16.960 water here um followed by flexibility because that is there's 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:18.680 a lot of people doing gig work. There's a lot 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:21.839 of people in their side hustle, so flexibility thing isn't 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:25.400 just that people like remote work, It's that they're needing 0:05:25.440 --> 0:05:28.080 to optimize their time and the economics of their time. 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:30.960 If you had to assess the outlook for the rest 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:37.040 of the year, recession, no recession. You know, I hope 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:42.680 we have solid indicators here that mean we're going to land. Okay. Um, 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:46.640 But to be determined is that a is that a 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:50.800 just intense seconds a cynical to be determined pessimistic? Now 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:53.560 not pessimistic. I mean, I just think there is incredible 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:56.040 growth out here and a lot of good work and 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:59.919 innovation going on. So, you know, not pessimistic or syncle 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:03.159 at all. Hopeful. I guess that I love it. You're real. 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:06.159 I'm in a real mega get real mood uh and 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:08.600 mode today. So Susan, thank you so much. Have a 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:10.880 good and safe weekend. Be well. Susan Arthur, She's chief 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:14.560 executive officer Career Builder understand sees what's going on in 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:17.760 the job market firsthand. Hurting us on the phone from Philadelphia. 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:21.200 This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:27.880 Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Hey, Um, certainly. 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:31.200 One of the big business stories of one was that 0:06:31.240 --> 0:06:33.359 record round of M and A deals last year, and 0:06:33.360 --> 0:06:35.599 at the end of last year, bankers were telling Bloomberg 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:38.000 there were no signs of slowing, and then of course 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:41.000 two happened, bringing in it with it lots of financial 0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:44.240 market volatility and different macro values and outlooks, and yet 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:46.680 we are still seeing deals getting announced and getting done. 0:06:46.720 --> 0:06:48.760 To him, let's get into it with Chris bloom he's 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:51.680 the head of leveraged finance at a BNP. Perrybody joins 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.440 us on the phone from Massachusetts. Chris, how are you. 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:57.560 I'm good, Thanks, how are you? We're doing well. So 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:00.120 exactly a month ago, the three of us were at 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:02.840 the Milk and Institute Global Conference. You've participated in the 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:06.479 panel on global M and A about chasing records. A 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:09.800 lot has changed in the markets just in the last month. 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:12.360 Give us an update from an M and A perspective 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:15.160 and what you're seeing. Yeah, No, that's a great it's 0:07:15.160 --> 0:07:17.600 a great topic. And I think that the panel that 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:19.920 we had out there was actually, you know, very very 0:07:19.920 --> 0:07:21.920 interesting in terms of the outlook for the rest of 0:07:22.000 --> 0:07:25.160 two thousand twenty two. I think we talked about that. 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:28.280 You know, we had quite a bit of agreement that 0:07:28.440 --> 0:07:31.600 the we thought the market might rebound as we headed 0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:34.040 into the back half of the year. We have seen 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:37.280 transactions still getting announced, and really I think the big 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:39.920 thing that we need to look at is volatility. You know, 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:41.760 at the end of the day, in order to to 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:44.960 actually agree on valuations for assets, you need to see 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:49.080 volatility mitigate. You need to see the credit markets then 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:52.600 stabilized so that the cost of capital you know, becomes 0:07:52.760 --> 0:07:55.560 known as as companies looked to be on assets or 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:57.640 sponsors looked to been on assets. So I think that 0:07:57.720 --> 0:08:02.200 as we see volatility continuing to be relatively high in 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:05.360 the equity markets and the debt markets, it makes it harder. 0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:07.680 But we are still we are seeing deals, you know, 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:11.120 begin begin to be announced again, you know, albeit you know, 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:14.400 definitely definitely not at the base probably thought are they 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:17.280 different types of deals? Though? You know from the perspective 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:19.560 that everybody says to keep an eye on, you know, 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:22.040 our our own M and A reporters here say keep 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:24.920 an eye on private equity right now, because that's where 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:26.440 you're going to be seeing a lot of deals. Are 0:08:26.440 --> 0:08:28.720 you seeing a different type of deal in this environment. 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:31.440 We are we are and again the core part of 0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:34.120 my my job is running our our financial sponsor business 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.319 and our leverage finance business. So we have we have seen. 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:40.199 You know, private equity investors love downturns in the equity 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:44.320 markets because it creates opportunity from evaluation perspective. And while 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:47.319 the cost of capital has gone up quite a bit 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:49.760 when you see interest rates rising like this, you know, 0:08:49.880 --> 0:08:52.000 at the end of the day, especially if you're looking 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:54.679 at sectors like tech or healthcare, you know, while those 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:58.280 valuations have gone down, when you're treating at fifteen twenty times, 0:08:59.320 --> 0:09:01.800 you know, finance at six to seven, you know, maybe 0:09:01.800 --> 0:09:04.480 it's six times now versus was seven times before because 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:07.400 of that higher pricing on the debt. That's not necessarily 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:12.120 making that investment decision. So the downtake evaluations does create 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:16.920 opportunities for pH shops in order to take businesses private. 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:20.880 So I think we're seeing a little bit more of that. So, okay, 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:22.839 are we on track for another record here or that's 0:09:22.840 --> 0:09:25.800 not likely? Definitely not gonna I don't think it's gonna 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:28.200 be another record here. I mean, you are seeing some 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:30.839 you know, large cap M and A being announced. You 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:35.480 saw a broad coom announced a very large transaction recently. However, 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:38.080 you know, the just the volatility in the markets. I 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:39.880 would say it's continued, you know. I think we all 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:43.360 were talking, you know, exactly a month ago, beginning of May. 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:46.760 That's continued. We're in the in early June. You know, 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:49.600 volumes are down in both that and equity. So I think, 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:52.560 you know, I would say a record dear, No, you know, 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:55.120 will the year round out, you know, with with a 0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:57.880 solid back half, that is definitely still possible. How do 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.640 you watch the VIX, Chris, because you know, we have 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:02.080 some of our reports and even the New York Stock 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:04.400 Exchange President referring to certain levels of the VIX as 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:05.920 a point when you'll see M and A R I 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:08.439 p O S. Yeah, No, it's a great question. So 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:11.160 I think when you're over thirty, it's very difficult to 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:14.400 see any type of financing actions in the financing markets, 0:10:14.400 --> 0:10:16.680 as well as any type of settling out in in 0:10:16.880 --> 0:10:19.800 UM in M and A. When you're below twenty, I 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:22.760 think that makes things, you know, feasible. Right now. We 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:25.040 were over thirty for for you know, during the period 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:27.640 we had very heavy equity market polatility a week and 0:10:27.640 --> 0:10:30.160 a half ago. You were over thirty for a few days. 0:10:30.320 --> 0:10:32.920 You know, we're now sitting at six for the last 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:35.640 few days. If you see a dip back below twenty, 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:37.679 I think a lot of things become more possible. We've 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:40.880 seen the high O bond market open up just this week. 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.640 You know, we had a four point seven billion dollar 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:47.280 day on Wednesday. There was there was was just five 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:51.720 billion printed the entire month of May. Yeah, it's very different, 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:53.840 very different. Hey, one thing I want to ask, so, 0:10:53.960 --> 0:10:55.679 are you not busy on the weekends? Are you and 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:57.960 your team not busy on the weekends? Can? We are 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:00.240 definitely busy on the weekends, you know it just in 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:03.559 terms of Look, we've all got risk portfolios that we're managing, 0:11:03.559 --> 0:11:05.320 and there are deals in the pipeline. There were there 0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:07.280 were you know, I saw an article today talking about 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:09.840 the fact that you know, we've got roughly thirty billion 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:12.240 of of you know, sort of death financings in the 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:13.960 in the lb O market that needs to come in 0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:16.280 the next couple of months. So, you know, we're always 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:18.800 looking at the positions that we have on and the 0:11:18.840 --> 0:11:21.480 commitments that we have on and if if we need 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:23.439 uh and if we need anything else. We've got always 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:25.760 got the elon musk to send something out that all 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:31.240 running around there. It is um. Having said that, if 0:11:31.280 --> 0:11:33.360 you had to pick an area where you think we 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:36.680 will see a more active area of deal flow, is 0:11:36.679 --> 0:11:39.160 it some of those beaten down sector? Is it health? 0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:41.480 Is it? What? Just quickly, I think it's Look, I 0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:44.080 think I think you're going to seek health. Healthcare and 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:47.440 tech continue to be areas of opportunity because you can 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:50.360 get outside returns as a private equity firm because of 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:54.080 the growth in those sectors. You know, with by putting 0:11:54.120 --> 0:11:56.640 to work a very large amount of equity, so you know, 0:11:56.640 --> 0:11:58.680 the equity checks and those deals are usually a high 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:02.040 percentage of the capitalization, and so you can put put 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:03.880 a lot of money to work there. I think that 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:07.560 you'll you'll see industrials will become more and more interesting 0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:09.480 because you know, at the end of the day, you know, 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:12.160 businesses with good hard assets, and when you see sort 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:15.120 of the high high sort of valued assets kind of 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:18.000 treading down, you know, businesses with good hard assets could 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:21.360 be attractive. Got it, We get energy, We gotta run. Chris, 0:12:21.360 --> 0:12:23.800 have a great weekend. Chris bloom over at BnB, Parry 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:26.880 Bot joining us right here on Bloomberg Radio. You're listening 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.720 to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:34.840 Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well in our weekly 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:38.160 crypto segment. An investor and content creator in the space 0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:40.439 back with us has been Armstrong. He has founder a 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:42.800 bit boy Crypto and the YouTube channel that goes by 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:45.320 the same name. A self proclaimed crypto millionaire. I think 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:47.440 that's how we described him last night. He joins us 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:49.480 on the phone in Atlanta. Ben, It's good to have 0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:52.680 you back with us. How are you. I'm doing great today. 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:55.280 Are you guys doing well? I look Bitcoin really seeming 0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:59.160 rage bound right now. It's under thirty thousand dollars according 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:02.360 to the latest on the Bloomberg terminal. Uh. When do 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.320 you think we'll see a bottom here? That is a 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:08.720 great question. I think we're looking at one of two scenarios. Uh, 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:11.600 there is a scenario that exists to where you know, 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:14.600 we call it the false top theory that basically November, 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.800 the top of sixty nine thousand was actually a false top. 0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:21.320 It was really kind of an over exaggerated deadcap bounce. 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:24.480 We really look back at April is really actually being 0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:27.160 the true top. Uh, there's a lot of indicators to 0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:30.480 kind of point to that. Obviously, retail sentiment was the 0:13:30.520 --> 0:13:33.360 highest at that point. If that's the case, then we 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:35.160 could expect to see a bottom for a bitcoin in 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.040 the next month, you know, maybe maybe even over the 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:39.920 next ten days, as things look very bad in the 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:42.760 markets right now. Um, but most likely what we've seen 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:46.319 traditionally in with bitcoin is a bottom in November after 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:49.000 the mid term elections. So we're really targeting, you know, 0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:51.480 kind of the end of November beginning of December, and 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:53.200 I think that will kind of line up with a 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.800 lot of the larger kind of macroeconomic problems that we're 0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:57.680 having right now that don't really seem to be slowing down. 0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:00.120 But and here's my problem with the cryptocurrency where all 0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:02.880 this I don't know what fundamentals to measure it against, 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:04.959 Like if you give me a hard asset or could 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:08.160 you say fundamentals When it comes to crypto, we don't 0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:11.560 do fundamentals. Yeah, I don't know if you know this, Carol, 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:14.560 But there there's no earnings for a bitcoin and flows. 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:19.880 Hence my confusion and problem with So how do I, 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:22.080 like you say, Okay, could you know midterms? We could 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:24.560 bottom at like, how do you say that, because what 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:28.120 are you basing it on? Well? What when I said that? 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:31.200 So we're looking at two separate kind of issues here. Uh. 0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:34.200 Number one, we do have fundamentals for bitcoin. They're they're 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:36.840 what we call on chained metrics. So you can kind 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:39.760 of look at the hash rate of bitcoins. Traditionally up 0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:41.840 until about the last year, you know, generally, when the 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:44.440 hash rate has been at the highest, the bitcoin price 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:46.480 has been at the highest. We have seen that change 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:49.160 a little bit recently. You can also look at you know, 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:51.440 things we call the os the s O p R, 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:53.880 which is like kind of how over the long term 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.680 people are holding onto bitcoins. We've got a lot of 0:14:56.720 --> 0:14:59.520 different measurements that have to do with addresses and wallet 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:04.040 and ales and transactional activity that you can kind of measure, 0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:07.320 and you can look and see connections between price and 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:11.640 those generally, but also when are they reliable indicators? Are 0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:16.200 they going to create long term cyclical historical cycles that 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:18.720 I can kind of analyze in ten years that are 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:20.960 going to make sense or is it like so many 0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:23.120 people who come out of air who say, listen, this 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:26.200 is like the Internet in the really early days. So 0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:30.320 get ready for some craziness, of course, and I mean 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:32.080 really that's that's what we're seeing, is that the hash 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:34.840 rate has traditionally been an indicator, but it isn't working 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:37.400 right now. So I think we really have got to 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:39.840 get a lot more time under our belt to be 0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:43.240 able to connect those on chain metrics to the price. 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:46.080 But what we do have is the history of the 0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:48.680 bitcoin price and how it follows what we call the 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.960 having cycle. Every four years, we've seen bitcoin do almost 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:54.880 exactly the same thing, hit all time highs every four years, 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.000 hit all time or hit new bottoms of bear markets 0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:00.520 every four years. And this is based of the having 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:04.640 which last one occurred in next one occurred in four years. 0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:08.880 Why is it four years, Well, it's it's about three 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:11.840 years eleven months technically, because it's two hundred and ten 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:16.080 thousand blocks for bitcoin is actually the distance between the havings, 0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:19.320 so it's so far it's worked out to approximately every 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:23.440 four years um. So it's coated into bitcoin to cut 0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:25.840 the production in half every four years, or every two 0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:28.080 hundred and ten thousand blocks. So but of course the 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:31.040 average person making conceptualize, you know, two hundred and ten 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.520 thousand blocks for bitcoin, so it's just easier to say 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:35.760 every four years. It's kind of a layman's term that 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:39.320 that we use. So Bitcoin is pretty much always followed 0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:41.200 that same path, and if it follows that same path 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:43.360 again throughout the rest of this bear market, like it 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:45.880 has the previous two bear markets, then that would probably 0:16:45.880 --> 0:16:49.440 indicate a bottom sometime around November. Okay, I want to 0:16:49.480 --> 0:16:52.760 move past this. Carol's still making sense of it, so 0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:55.520 am I? Are you satisfied? Carol? No, but you go ahead. 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:58.720 I consider you the expert in until Let's not get 0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:01.480 ahead of ourselves here. And Armstrong is the expert founder 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:05.199 of Biboy Crypto. That's why we have him on the phone. Uh, Ben, 0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:08.119 I want to talk crypto winter here because we're just 0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:11.680 getting a host of bad news we're hearing from. Uh 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:15.040 What the latest is? Among the latest, of course, is 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.879 coin based pausing hiring and then also resending some offers 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:22.200 coming after Robin and layoffs and layoffs at coins the fundamental. 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:25.359 I understand that there's a fundamental and the Gemini yesterday 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:29.400 announcing layoffs. Um, are we in a crypto winter? Oh? 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:31.159 We are certainly in a crypto winner. I mean, I 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:34.080 don't think there's any any debate about that. Uh. And 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:37.239 like I said before, it's predictable crypto winner. I mean 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:39.520 last year, even we were having high prices, we were 0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:41.880 predicting this year we were going to go through this. 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:43.960 And every four years you see the same thing where 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:46.200 people say it's going to be different this time, it's 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:49.199 too much adoption, there's it's two mainstream, and yet we 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:51.800 always continue to see the same bear bear winter play out. 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:55.400 I think when you're looking at them cutting jobs, I'm 0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:58.399 not sure this is as connected to crypto is it 0:17:58.520 --> 0:18:02.120 is just connected the overall job market and the general economy. 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:03.679 I mean, we look at Tesla, they said they were 0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:05.680 gonna be laying off ten percent of their employees a 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:09.840 salaried you should say salaried. We later learned say that 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:13.399 again salaried employees, not just not contractors. So it changes 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:16.560 the equation a little bit, just a little bit, but 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:19.080 it's still ten percent of those contractor workers. So they 0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:22.919 are showing a pullback. So I think connecting necessarily the 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.679 layoffs at Jim and I to UH in the hiring 0:18:25.720 --> 0:18:28.280 freezer coin based the crypto, it isn't as relevant and 0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:30.960 it's to the larger, you know market, I would say 0:18:30.960 --> 0:18:32.640 in general. You know, we've got the jobs report today. 0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:35.480 It looks very strong, and that's actually bad for the economy. 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:38.080 Is you know that means uh, you know, inflation still 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:40.239 running rampant. It's not really pulling back yet. You know, 0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:44.560 don't expect any of the tightenings to ease up anytime soon. 0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:46.160 I think it's one gonna get worse. And I think 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:48.840 this is having effec on all businesses. We gotta run. Hey, 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:50.240 good to check in with you. Ben now, I'm strong. 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:52.280 He's found her a bit boy crypto on the phone 0:18:52.280 --> 0:18:54.600 from Atlanta. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. I still 0:18:54.640 --> 0:19:02.800 don't understand this is Bloompark Journal. Yeah, but you let 0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:07.359 me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no, all right, please, 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:13.200 I'll do the brivels I want to drive. It's a 0:19:13.200 --> 0:19:22.440 good question. This is the drive to the clothes don 0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:26.400 on Bluebird Radio. All right, we've got just about ten 0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:28.800 and a half minutes left in today's trading session, folks. 0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:31.720 We're getting ready to wrap up what's been a shortened 0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:34.760 trading weekle though you're not already, I know, but it 0:19:34.920 --> 0:19:36.880 feels like kind of a month of trading. I don't 0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:39.560 know how you all are feeling. Um, so let's get 0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:42.240 to it. Yeah. Jonathan Waite is fund manager and senior 0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:45.760 equity analyst. He co manages the Frost Growth Equity Fund 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:48.440 at Frost Investment Advisers. He joins us on the phone 0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:51.359 from San Antonio, Texas. Jonathan, how are you good? How 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:53.199 are you doing? We're good, We're good. We're trying to 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:55.600 make sense of everything that's happening. On the one hand, 0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:58.240 you got Elon Musk and Jamie Diamond and Jane Fraser 0:19:58.280 --> 0:20:02.240 in the list of sense there's a problem companies, companies 0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:03.919 warning us. Then we get this, you know, hotter than 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:07.200 expected jobs report earlier today. That's kind of saying, wait 0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:10.840