WEBVTT - BlockFi's Potential Bankruptcy and NY Fed's Digital Dollar 0:00:01.639 --> 0:00:06.200 Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg's sound on 0:00:07.120 --> 0:00:09.320 attack on one as an attack on all, and we 0:00:09.400 --> 0:00:13.080 will defend every inch of NATO territory. You know, as 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:15.160 I mentioned, we're looking into these reports. Don't have any 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:17.440 information to corroborate him at this time, so I don't 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:20.119 want to speculate or get into hypothetical. Let's President Biden 0:00:20.160 --> 0:00:23.360 may clear, we will defend every inch of NATO territory. 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:27.280 If we care. Bloomberg sound on politics, policy and perspective 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:31.960 from DC's top name, I will very very very probably 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:34.400 do it again. Okay, that's a three time loser. I 0:00:34.440 --> 0:00:36.960 think that this selection was the funeral for the Republican Party. 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:39.239 As we know, I would just tell people to go 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.800 check out the scoreboard from last Tuesday night Bloomberg sound 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:48.520 on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Russian rockets reportedly 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:51.800 hit Poland. So now what welcome to the fastest hour 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:54.560 in politics is the U S and NATO allies meet 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:57.840 to consider the path forward, waiting to learn more about 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:01.040 what happened today. We'll have the nique perspective of the 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:05.360 former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper on the Pentagon's next steps, 0:01:05.920 --> 0:01:08.720 and as the Polish president calls for a National Security 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:11.240 Council meeting, we will talk with Melinda Hrring of the 0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:15.880 Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center on Ukraine. With the aftermath of 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:18.720 the midterm elections now setting off a leadership battle in 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:22.200 the Senate and Donald Trump preparing his big announcement for tonight, 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:24.920 will discuss all of these stories with our signature panel 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:29.520 Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Schanzano. The Pentagon 0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:33.039 is treading very carefully around this story from Poland today, 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:37.360 as the Associated Press reports two Russian missiles crossed the 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:41.640 Ukrainian border into Poland, killing two people. Pentagon spokes from 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:44.960 Brigadier General pat ryder So, as I mentioned right now, 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:47.680 we are aware of the press reporting on this. We 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:50.960 have no information at this time to corroborate those reports, 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:53.720 but again are are taking them seriously and looking into them, 0:01:53.720 --> 0:01:57.400 and so um I will make sure that we provide 0:01:57.400 --> 0:01:59.400 you with any updates as soon as we have them, 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:02.040 and we've been waiting the news prompted though an emergency 0:02:02.080 --> 0:02:05.920 meeting of leaders in Poland, with Warsaw now considering invoking 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:09.640 Article four of a NATO Treaty, which brings consultation with 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:13.720 allies to raise concerns about national security, a step away, 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:17.600 of course, from a part possible Article five response, which 0:02:17.600 --> 0:02:19.320 is what everyone today has been asking about when it 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:23.120 comes to our security commitments UH and Article five. We've 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:25.760 been crystal clear that we will defend every inch of 0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:28.919 NATO territory. That's a Brigadier General pat Ryder once again 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:31.640 echoing the words of the President right, President Biden just 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:33.560 a couple of months ago, attack on one as an 0:02:33.560 --> 0:02:37.040 attack on all, and we will defend every inch of 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:40.680 NATO territory. Or the Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, it's 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:43.600 President Biden may clear we will defend every inch of 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:48.160 NATO territory. If require every inch. We're making good on that, 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:51.520 every inch. But what if it was an accident. What 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:55.440 if NATO decides it's it's more dangerous to respond militarily. 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:59.000 What if Poland doesn't ask for help. We are facing 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:01.560 some big questions to nights, and that's why we're lucky 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:05.040 to have former Secretary of Defense Mark Asper back with 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:07.639 us on sound on, author of the books Sacred Oath. 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:11.440 Mr Secretary, welcome back. We understand that President Biden has 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:15.320 spoken with President Duda. We also know National Security Advisor 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:17.800 Jake Sullivan has gotten on the phone with the chief 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:21.920 of Poland's National Security Bureau. Bring us behind the scenes 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:25.639 into what's happening right now, well, Joe, first of all, 0:03:25.639 --> 0:03:28.639 great to be with you on this important day. So 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:31.040 I think you know behind the scenes, the Secretary of 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:35.280 Defense is having conversations with his counterpart as well. I 0:03:35.320 --> 0:03:37.880 think the critical thing is to understand what the polls 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:41.000 know and what they don't know based on the forensics 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:42.600 on the ground as they look at the wreckage of 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:46.240 the of the missiles, UH, to compare radar tracks, if 0:03:46.240 --> 0:03:49.480 you will, to try and figure out the point of origination, 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:51.760 and then to kind of getting their head with regard 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:53.760 to where the government is thinking, what the government is 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:58.160 thinking as we weigh out responses. My suspicion is that 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:03.240 this was an an accident until um firing caused by 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:05.880 either poor targeting or a malfunctioned by one of the 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:09.360 Russian missiles. But we need to go through a deliberate process, 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:12.040 investigated out and come to the facts before we draw 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:15.080 any conclusions. If we do conclude that it was an accident, 0:04:15.920 --> 0:04:19.160 does that mean no military response, or is is it 0:04:19.200 --> 0:04:25.159 not that easy? Well, I look, accidents happened. Uh, United 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:27.839 States has created accidents in the past. If you're called 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:31.400 the shooting down of an Iranian jetliner a decades ago 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:33.799 by U. S. Navy ship, and there's been other accidents 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:35.440 in the past. I don't see it as a reason 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:37.800 to go to war. But it's certainly a reason for 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:41.120 us to demand a full explanation from the Russians, to 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:44.840 demand some type of actions that they plan to take 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:46.919 to make sure this doesn't happen again, and to continue 0:04:46.920 --> 0:04:51.240 to warn them that we will defend NATO territory from attack. 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:54.800 Should the President be saying every inch that that line 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:58.440 that we've heard repeatedly, and and he's even said, you know, 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:01.320 whether it's on purpose or nod or have have we 0:05:01.440 --> 0:05:04.279 gone too far to draw that red line without allowing 0:05:04.320 --> 0:05:07.760 for some flexibility over you know, a potential screw up 0:05:07.839 --> 0:05:11.040 like this one. Well, I think it's important to be resolute. 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:14.520 You're sending a message to at least two audiences, one 0:05:14.920 --> 0:05:18.200 Russia and number two the allies, you know, reassure the 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:22.200 frontline States, the Baltics, Poland, etcetera, that we will be 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:24.279 there to defend them. But you you have to balance 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:27.200 that out with a message to all the players and 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:29.120 the American people that we need to get to the 0:05:29.160 --> 0:05:31.120 bottom this first, and we need to sort out whether 0:05:31.160 --> 0:05:35.359 it was an accident or intentional. And intentionality makes a 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:39.440 big difference here, particularly when you're talking about possibly escalating 0:05:39.440 --> 0:05:43.479 the conflict and injecting NATO into it. When you read 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:47.880 actually read the article five, it refers to action as 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:52.720 deemed necessary, Mr. Secretary, including the use of armed force 0:05:53.480 --> 0:05:56.719 to restore security, implying that that's an option one of 0:05:56.839 --> 0:06:01.800 potentially several options that UH the allies have to to 0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:04.120 do this, even if it was on purpose, that does 0:06:04.160 --> 0:06:07.720 not guarantee a military response right now, That's right. A 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:10.960 lot of people misread article to five to to believe 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:14.400 that it's just an automatic reaction military response, And grantly, 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:16.680 what it means is that the decision has to go 0:06:16.720 --> 0:06:21.039 back to UH national capitals for decision first and then 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:25.480 consultation among the allies within the within NATO, So it's 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:28.039 it's not automatic and they can consider a full range 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:31.200 of responses. And I believe that this was an accident 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:34.680 that the appropriate response would be a diplomatic one, but 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:37.800 on the other hand, we should consider what additional actions 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:43.000 we should take NATO should take to safeguard from something 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:46.200 similar happening in the future. So do we UH put 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:48.920 more air defenses in along the Polish border, for example? 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.960 Should we accelerate, as I've been arguing for some time now, 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:56.920 accelerate the provision of air defense assets to Ukraine so 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:59.599 that this doesn't happen. Think about how far this Russian 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:02.839 missile would have had to travel across Ukraine to pass 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:07.000 into the Polish border, the renumerous opportunities to shoot this 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:10.000 thing down, and so I think we it's a call 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:12.840 to accelerate the provision of air defenses to Ukraine as well, 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:15.560 not least of which because they've been suffering under air 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:18.480 missile attacks from the Russians now for months. You said 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.480 a couple of important things there, and I do want 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:23.240 to go back and point out the fact that you're right, 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:28.000 President Biden would have to seek UH congressional approval to 0:07:28.160 --> 0:07:30.920 act on this militarily right as opposed to responding to 0:07:30.960 --> 0:07:33.040 an attack on our own country. So that's number one 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:36.920 and two to your point about missile defenses. How does 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:38.840 this impact the debate if we can call it a 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:42.200 debate to be fair around Ukraine funding war funding going 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:47.000 into the new year with a new Congress. Well, uh, look, 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:50.120 the air defenses are desperately needed. We've known this for months. 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:54.280 I think we've moved too slowly and and with not enough, 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:56.600 not just the United States but our allies as well. 0:07:57.120 --> 0:07:59.840 We know at this point in time, given the tactical 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:03.360 vitories on the ground being achieved by the Ukrainians, that 0:08:03.400 --> 0:08:06.200 the Russians are now resorting to these air missile attacks 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:08.720 and drone attacks by the way, to provided by Iran 0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:13.520 to knock out the Ukrainian infrastructure so that it becomes 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:16.040 a very tough winter for them, for the Ukrainians and 0:08:16.080 --> 0:08:18.360 they try to break their will. So this is why 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:22.040 I've been arguing that we need to provide the Ukrainians 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:26.120 the means to defend themselves. And I just don't know why, uh, NATO, 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.320 the United States are allies have been moving too slow 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:31.560 on this front. We're spending time with Marks per former 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:35.400 Defense Secretary Mark, When when the administration does know what 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:39.240 actually happened here, does the president speak even if it's 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:41.480 from the G twenty in Bali and this does this 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:45.000 actually helped him being with all of these fellow leaders, 0:08:45.000 --> 0:08:49.080 He's basically got a NATO meeting at breakfast today. Well, 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:51.079 the United States is the clear leader of NATO, the 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.199 clear leader of the free world. I think it's important 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:56.680 for the President once he understands the facts and comes 0:08:56.679 --> 0:08:59.400 to a conclusion and consults, by the way with his 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:02.920 his fell long leaders, particularly Poland and UM and of 0:09:02.960 --> 0:09:05.079 course a NATO sectary general, that he explains to the 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:08.360 American people what we know and what it means. But 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:11.560 it's we need to understand what's happening. We need to 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:15.440 know the way ahead. We need some reassurance that, uh, 0:09:15.600 --> 0:09:19.680 that Washington has this under control. We were asking questions 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:23.320 earlier about force protection. Brigadier General pat Ryder, as I mentioned, 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:27.280 was briefing reporters at the Pentagon earlier. Here's what he said. 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:30.280 We always take the safety and security of our troops, 0:09:30.280 --> 0:09:33.840 no matter where they're serving, very seriously, and so we're 0:09:34.000 --> 0:09:37.200 very confident in any force protection measures that we take, 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:40.640 whether it be Poland or elsewhere. You made the point 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:44.720 earlier here that this missile had to travel some distance, 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:47.200 or these missiles to where they were going, do we 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:51.480 need to have better countermeasures just to protect our own forces. 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:54.360 Never mind the border of Poland. We've got tens of 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:56.920 thousands of additional troops over there now, right, what force 0:09:56.960 --> 0:10:00.880 protection do we have? Well, I assu you know what, 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:04.240 where there are congregations of US forces, particularly on bases 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:07.320 or Polish bases, that they are well protected from the 0:10:07.320 --> 0:10:10.400 ground um and and more importantly from the air with 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:14.679 the US air defense systems supplemented complemented by Polish air 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:18.240 defense systems. So I don't worry as much about the bases. 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:21.080 What you have to worry about is is again these 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:24.480 if it's an accident um missiles falling in in areas 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:26.360 that we wouldn't expect. In this case, from what we're 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:29.680 told it was, it fell into a farming area community, 0:10:29.800 --> 0:10:33.360 a very small community, which which adds to the suspicion 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:35.720 that it was an accident more than anything else. So 0:10:36.000 --> 0:10:38.480 but look, force protection always has to be taken into account. 0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:40.800 And at this point in time, given that this seems 0:10:40.840 --> 0:10:43.000 to be the resort of the Russians to fire drones 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:47.200 and missiles and artillery and in many cases randomly to 0:10:47.360 --> 0:10:50.000 terrorize the Ukrainian people, we have to be doubly on 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:52.560 guard with regard to force protection and and and where 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:55.480 the spillover could occur. I think I know what your 0:10:55.480 --> 0:10:57.720 answer is going to be. But does this and the 0:10:57.800 --> 0:11:02.559 argument about whether they should send the MiGs, do you rane? Uh, 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:04.600 we should have sent the mixed months ago. We should 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.840 be pushing the Germans and others to provide tanks, that 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:11.080 we should accelerate air defenses and and anti ship missiles. 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:14.280 All this stuff should have been provided. We could foresee 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:16.960 all this happening, and so I don't know why we 0:11:17.000 --> 0:11:20.680 continued to hesitate to do these things. And so yes, 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:24.160 by this time we could have trained, uh, the Ukrainian 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:25.520 pilots and they would have been ready to go and 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:28.040 they could have shot down these systems. What a thought, 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:31.680 What a thought? Mark, thank you for sharing your insights 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:33.720 with us. To your point on a very important day, 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:37.640 Mark asked for the former Secretary of Defense, getting things 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:40.160 moving on the fastest hour in politics. Will assemble the 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:42.680 panel next to here from Genie and Rick, I'm Joe Matthew. 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:48.560 This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound on 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:56.080 with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Reports coming in from 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:59.800 Poland today that as you were just hearing on Bloomberg 0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:04.119 wound on a couple of Russian missiles hit NATO territory, 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:09.400 landed in Poland, killed two people. May reframe the debate 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:14.720 surrounding funding for Ukraine. It certainly came up today in 0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:18.199 a newly awakened Capitol Hill. Lawmakers are back in town. 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:22.080 Senator Mitch McConnell, still minority leader, was sasked about it. 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:26.520 I'm a robust supporter of Ukraine. We need to get 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:29.160 them what they need to continue to fight this war. 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.760 I think they have the capacity to win it, particularly 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.280 we give them what they need. We have more later 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:37.880 on a test to his leadership this hour, but let's 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:40.559 assemble our panel or Genie Schanzano and Rick Davis are 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:45.560 with us, our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie doesn't 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:49.760 reframe the argument around funding here with some Republicans primarily, 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:53.040 and but also some progressive Democrats as well, making some 0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:56.040 noise becoming a little more restless as we approached the 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:58.520 end of the year when it comes to sending tens 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:02.360 of billions more to Ukraine. Yeah, it should reframe the argument, 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.160 but the reality is it really shouldn't have to reframe it. 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:07.400 The biggest surprise about what happened today is that it 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:11.600 didn't happen before. The Russians have been shooting missiles in 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:15.440 this area, and they had what ninety missiles that came 0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:19.320 in aimed towards the infrastructure, the electrical infrastructure in Ukraine. 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:22.600 And regardless of whether this was an accident or whether 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:24.839 it was on purpose, the shock here is it didn't 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:28.800 happen before. Anybody in Congress who doesn't realize that and 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:31.960 is prepared to maybe cut funding or have a discussion 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:34.960 about that at this point really hasn't been paying attention 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:36.960 to what's been going on. So it shouldn't reframe it, 0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:41.760 but it probably will. The nightly address from President Zelenski 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:45.800 rick was, you can imagine, fairly draumatic. He asked how 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:48.679 many times as Ukraine said that the terrorist state will 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:52.160 not stop on our country. It's only a matter of time, 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:55.200 he said, before Russian terror goes further. Is that true 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:57.480 or is this just a dumb move, a mistake by 0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:01.000 Vladimir Putin? Well, I think there's a legit intimate concerned 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:05.360 that Putin's brandishing all these weapons across you know, Ukraine. 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:08.560 One has the potential of causing an accent. This is 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:11.839 the problem when you put on a war like Putin has, 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:14.760 with the lack of lethality that he's been able to do, 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:17.120 he has no idea half the time probably where these 0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:20.120 missiles are going. So the idea that they somehow can 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:23.520 deny this without you know, UH being found to be 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:28.800 UH at risk at fault UM is nuts. UM. Ninety 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:32.960 missiles were launched yesterday. This is one of two of 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:37.360 those missiles all the way across the country. UM. Ukraine 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:40.600 was successful at shooting down seventy of them. But UH, 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:43.520 Vladimir Putin doesn't have control of his troops. He doesn't 0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:46.640 really know what's happening on the ground. UH. And the 0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:51.120 idea that somehow this doesn't spread UH to a broader 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:55.520 war is I think naive on people's part, because Uh, 0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:58.920 I think there's a part of Putin's political calculus that 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.840 says he's to be even tougher than he's been. You know, 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:03.760 he's got he doesn't have problems on the left, he 0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:06.320 knows those. He has problems on the right. There are 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:09.920 right wing advisors and leaders in Russia who don't think 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:13.120 Putin is doing enough, and to some degree, maybe This 0:15:13.280 --> 0:15:17.160 mollifies them because Putin will be able to say, potentially, hey, 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:21.160 I shot these two missiles into into Poland and NATO 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:25.040 did nothing. It sounds to me like a response might 0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:28.480 be necessary, whether or not it was an accident. Is 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:31.720 at your point, Yeah, I don't think we can tolerate 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:35.520 Russia is shooting ninety missiles in the Ukraine one right, 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:38.640 that is absolutely inappropriate. He's what he's doing is what 0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:40.960 you mentioned earlier. He's knocking out all the powers so 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:44.920 he can freeze the Ukrainian population. That is not war 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:48.240 uh in in a traditional sense. So what's the what's 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.680 the response? I think the response has got to be 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:53.840 beef up everything that we're doing in the Ukraine and 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.720 and increase the global pressure on Russia. And that means 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:02.960 secondary sanctions, that means, you know, targeting new industries within Russia. 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:04.800 I mean, there are a lot more we can do, 0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:07.000 and I think we've kind of taken our foot off 0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:09.600 the gas pedal. How close are we to World War three? 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:13.680 Then here, Jeanie, you know, a response could be interpreted 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:15.920 in a lot of different ways by Vladimir Putin. Obviously 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:19.280 it could. I mean Vladimir Putin is threatened at home. 0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:21.880 There there is a school of thought which says that, 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:24.120 you know, we need to be thinking about providing him 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:27.200 some kind of face saving off ramp, because otherwise he 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:31.040 could feel threatened internally and maybe do something like launch 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.080 a nuclear attack. So that's reality. The other reality is 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:37.000 the United States and NATO. We've been trying to limit 0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:39.520 this wor to Ukraine. We see that that's going to 0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:42.080 be a lot tougher to do at this point, and 0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:45.560 that's where this concern about say, World War three comes about. 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:49.280 But in the meantime, civilian populations in the Ukraine are 0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:51.760 under attack. I mean Rick was just talking about it. 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:56.800 They're attempting to completely disable the electrical grid as they 0:16:56.840 --> 0:17:01.440 head into winter. They are destroying an entire civilization. And 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:04.879 that is a really, really something that's got to be addressed. 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:07.879 And you know, these were two, you know, two deaths, 0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:11.000 really unfortunate. Look at the number in Ukraine. Do you 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:14.800 worry You're absolutely right, Do you worry about drawing red 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:17.879 lines here? Uh? Jeannie, This term has come up a 0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:21.760 number of times, remembering Barack Obama and Syria. When you 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:26.280 think about Joe Biden, every inch, no matter what is 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:31.280 that good or or bad geopolitics right now. It's dangerous 0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:34.480 because he has been unequivocal. You have played all the equips, 0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:37.160 all the equips, all the clips rather and he has 0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:39.600 said that as his advisers. And the question is now, 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:42.080 did he mean every single inch only if it wasn't 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:44.080 an accident. If it is an accident, is it still 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:48.600 every single Yeah, it's a dangerous game to play. He's right, 0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:50.760 he should be unequivocal in that. But they've got to 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:53.680 mean it. And that's you know what we're waiting to hear. 0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:56.919 How do we respond and do they feel that, you know, 0:17:57.080 --> 0:18:00.560 accident means that this is excused in some way a redline? 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:03.920 Dangerous here, Rick or necessary? I like redlines as long 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.439 as you back them up. Yeah, well, that's a whole 0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:10.560 different conversation, Rick Davis, Jennie Chanzano stay with us for 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:13.640 the hour our signature panel as we continue our conversation 0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:16.920 about some of the very difficult decisions that are coming. 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:20.480 Wellnda Herring of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center on Ukraine 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:25.440 is here. Next. This is Bloomberg. So at six thirty 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.359 in the morning right now in Bali, where, of course 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:31.239 President Biden is waking up along with the heads of 0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:35.080 the other G twenty nations there for the big summit 0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:37.919 this week, where the war in Ukraine has been a 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:41.879 massive topic. It was a topic yesterday when President Biden 0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:44.280 met with President she from China. It was a topic 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:48.080 today when Bloomberg News spoke with John Kirby, spokesman of 0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:52.520 course for the White House National Security Council, while talking 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:57.080 about China, you cannot avoid the war in Ukraine. China 0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:01.200 hasn't condemned the war. They haven't stopped buying oil, they 0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:05.200 haven't provided any military equipment. But but clearly they haven't 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:07.440 come out as forcefully as the rest of the international 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:10.000 community in really condemning this war. That by the way, 0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:11.840 it was just a couple of hours before the headlines 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:15.560 broke from Poland about the apparently stray missiles is that 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:19.640 what we're calling them that killed two people in Poland? 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.359 Were joined by Melinda Herring Glad to say, the deputy 0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:25.400 director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasias Center on Ukraine, back 0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:28.880 with us here on Bloomberg's sound On. Melinda, it's great 0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:31.640 to have you with us. How likely do you think 0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:35.600 this is a mistake at this play. We don't know, 0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:39.240 and it's it's early days. Everyone's trying to figure out 0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:42.760 what happened. So it may have the Russians may have 0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:45.960 overshot and they may have intended to hit Poland. Or 0:19:46.960 --> 0:19:50.399 it's possible that that the Ukrainians tried to shoot this 0:19:50.800 --> 0:19:54.480 these Russian UH missiles down and their air defenses landed 0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:57.320 in Poland. We simply don't know, and everyone's trying to 0:19:57.320 --> 0:20:00.680 gather information right now, So we're trying to be careful 0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:04.600 as well. When you consider though, the environment that President 0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:07.800 Biden is in right now, Uh, is this not the 0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:11.000 best possible scenario for him to be surrounded by Arnato 0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:14.639 allies at this very moment. Look, it's not bad. I 0:20:14.840 --> 0:20:17.679 don't think anyone expects anything monumental to come out of 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:19.960 the G twenty. I certainly don't. The big themes that 0:20:20.040 --> 0:20:22.879 the G twenty were energy security and food security, and 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:25.320 Vladimir Putin did even bother to show up, and both 0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:28.000 of those issues revolve around him, and he is the 0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:31.160 decision maker in Russia. So you know, it's good that 0:20:31.240 --> 0:20:33.720 he's nearer some of our allies and he can make 0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:37.280 phone calls and have conversations easily. But but you know, 0:20:37.880 --> 0:20:39.800 I don't see any headlines coming out of the g T, 0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:43.320 any real ones. So he needs to come home, meet 0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:45.560 with military officials and so on. Is that your point? 0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:49.000 We know Jake Sullivan was speaking with his counterpart in Poland. 0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:52.120 The Pentagon, though, is being very careful about what comes next. 0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:54.320 We're not we're not at Article five yet, we're technically 0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:58.480 not even an Article four as Poland considers opening the conversation. 0:20:59.480 --> 0:21:01.920 That's right. So we know that President Biden just got 0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:04.439 off the phone with President Duda in Poland, and the 0:21:04.440 --> 0:21:06.640 polls are supposed to put out a statement very soon. 0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:10.000 But I think you're right that that everyone is looking 0:21:10.040 --> 0:21:13.200 at Article for for consultations to sit down and talk 0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:16.479 about what the proper response is right now, uh, and 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:20.240 hopefully a meeting will be forthcoming. The Ukrainians, Dmitri Kala, 0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:23.439 the foreign minister, has put some statements out on social 0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:28.360 media and he's asking he's asking for a NATO conference 0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:31.520 that would include Ukraine, and he's urging the West to 0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:35.240 send air defense systems and to send S sixteens and 0:21:35.480 --> 0:21:37.879 S fifteens as soon as possible. Do you think that 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:41.440 will happen? No? No, I don't think so. Look, the 0:21:41.640 --> 0:21:43.840 White House, our White House is not willing to give 0:21:44.520 --> 0:21:47.080 long range rockets that there's no way that they're going 0:21:47.160 --> 0:21:52.160 to agree to greenland jets. They already poop poo this idea, 0:21:52.240 --> 0:21:54.840 you know, months and months, never mind the megs that 0:21:54.920 --> 0:21:57.720 they already know how to fly. When you hear when 0:21:57.760 --> 0:22:03.480 you hear Moscow using the term deliberate provocation, when you're 0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:06.440 done chuckling, do you assume that that means the opposite 0:22:06.440 --> 0:22:11.320 of what you're reading? Normally? Yes, normally, normally you do. Yeah, 0:22:11.320 --> 0:22:14.000