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Speaker 1: Oil was seventy seven dollars five days ago.

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Speaker 2: It went to almost one hundred and twenty, then it

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Speaker 2: went back down to seventy seven, and now it's at

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Speaker 2: ninety two.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this thing is all over the place.

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Speaker 2: And normally, if something like the Iran conflict kickoff the

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Speaker 2: US and Israel, or bombing the straighter Hermoses closed, you know,

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Speaker 2: all these kind of complexities, oil would be at one

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Speaker 2: twenty or one fifty. And so the question then becomes, Okay,

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Speaker 2: you can do certain things to mitigate a skyrocketing oil.

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Speaker 1: Price, but how long can you do that?

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Speaker 2: And so I think the question around what is the

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Speaker 2: impact of oil on inflation is really just like how

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Speaker 2: long does the Iran situation happen?

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Speaker 1: And how long is that straight closed for it.

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Speaker 2: If it's you know, four weeks, it's not going to

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Speaker 2: be fun, but hey, it's not going to have a

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Speaker 2: massive impact if we start talking six months.

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Speaker 1: Buckle up, Welcome back to the show, everybody.

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Speaker 3: Today's guest is some one that I've really been excited

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Speaker 3: in preparation to come on, mister Anthony Pompliano.

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Speaker 1: Jordy, our producer, worked with pomp for.

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Speaker 3: About five years and speaks with such a high degree

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Speaker 3: of respect for him, and after being introduced and getting

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Speaker 3: familiar with his content, I believe he's probably the best

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Speaker 3: person on bitcoin that's out in the industry right now

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Speaker 3: and so, but what's really phenomenal is his comprehensive understanding

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Speaker 3: of the markets, what's taking place in geopolitical events. So

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Speaker 3: we're just gonna jump right in and get straight to

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Speaker 3: the heart. Miss Pompliano, thank you so much for coming on, sir.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, Dave, thanks for having me, And obviously I

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Speaker 2: think very highly of view and of Jordie, so I

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Speaker 2: appreciate the invitation.

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Speaker 1: Awesome, awesome, All right, let's just jump right into this.

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Speaker 3: There's a tremendous amount of volatility taking place, and you know,

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Speaker 3: I think it really began last April with the Trump's

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Speaker 3: announcements of of tariffs and what we saw the hit,

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Speaker 3: how it hit the bond market and other places. We've

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Speaker 3: had a massive fluctuation in bitcoin, a massive fluctuation in oil, gold, across.

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Speaker 1: The markets, we're seeing volatility.

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Speaker 3: You recently had a guy on named Jeff Park that

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Speaker 3: I thought was pretty fascinating because he began to use

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Speaker 3: a phrase called wartime bitcoin. Can you describe what he

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Speaker 3: means by that in the greater context of what we're

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Speaker 3: seeing geopolitically right now.

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Speaker 2: Well, look, I think that bitcoin has gone through a

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Speaker 2: very large evolution, if you will. So if you go

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Speaker 2: back fifteen years ago, frankly, the only people who were

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Speaker 2: interested in bitcoin were nerds, crazy people, or criminals. And

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Speaker 2: if you didn't fit in one of those three buckets,

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Speaker 2: you probably weren't into bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: The thing was trading for pennies. It was kind of

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Speaker 2: a wild idea. There was not a lot of exchange

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Speaker 2: or venues where you could go and acquire it. It

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Speaker 2: required degree of technical understanding for you to be able

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Speaker 2: to custody this thing, and there was a lot of

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Speaker 2: questions around is it going to survive, will it thrive?

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Speaker 2: Is there going to be some sort of government crackdown?

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Speaker 2: You know, all these things. Over that maybe the next

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Speaker 2: seven or eight years, you then started to get into

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Speaker 2: what I call like the early adopter phase. And in

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Speaker 2: that early adopter phase, that was people who like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: maybe I'm not as crazy, maybe I'm not a criminal,

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Speaker 2: but I have a little bit of technical understanding, I'm

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Speaker 2: intellectually curious, and I like to be first, right, I

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Speaker 2: like to be early to things, and so you know,

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Speaker 2: as we kind of went through this, now if you

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Speaker 2: fast forward to today, well that evolution has got you know,

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Speaker 2: Larry Fink from Blackrock talking about this, Jamie Diamond, the

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Speaker 2: mainstream media fidelity, you know, all these folks are into bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: And so I think that what you've really seen is

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Speaker 2: you've seen bitcoin go from you know, kind of a

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Speaker 2: newborn child to now it is a full fledged adult

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Speaker 2: that's ready to stand on its own. Now during that

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Speaker 2: fifteen years, we've had a lot happen in the world.

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Speaker 2: If you think about, you know, coming out of the

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Speaker 2: global financial crisis when bitcoin was built, there obviously was

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Speaker 2: kind of the deck ad long run in software and

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Speaker 2: technology where Bitcoin thrived.

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Speaker 1: Then you had COVID where there was really what I

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Speaker 1: would consider kind of the first big test in terms

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Speaker 1: of a kind of global event that bitcoin had to

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Speaker 1: weather and then come out the other side of. And

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Speaker 1: then it even was able to survive the hiking of

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Speaker 1: interest rates, you know, at the fastest pace in history

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two. And we get to today, and

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Speaker 1: so as you navigate all of that, you know, one

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Speaker 1: of the things in America that you know, you would

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Speaker 1: understand probably better than most is we for twenty something

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Speaker 1: years had the persistent backdrop of we were at war.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's there's very few years where the United

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Speaker 1: States has not been at war. But historically bitcoin has

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Speaker 1: been in the market while war was already going on,

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Speaker 1: so it kind of you know, war started and years

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Speaker 1: went by, and then bitcoin was introduced. I think what

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Speaker 1: we're watching right now is really bitcoin has now done

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Speaker 1: two things. One, it is big enough where people are

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Speaker 1: paying attention, so it's you know, trillion and a half

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Speaker 1: to two trillion dollars depending on the price. But two

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Speaker 1: is it's held by people who are not just the

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Speaker 1: crazy people on the inner anymore. When it was a

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Speaker 1: crazy thing on the Internet that was held by individuals.

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Speaker 1: Those people don't really care what interest rates are, or

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Speaker 1: they don't care what's going on geopolitically. They just say, look,

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Speaker 1: I'm buying bitcoin. When I earn more money in my

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Speaker 1: next paycheck, I'm buying more bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: And no matter what you tell me, I don't like

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Speaker 2: the government, I don't like the central bank, I'm buying bitcoin. Well, now,

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Speaker 2: if you have macro hedge funds or large financial institutions

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Speaker 2: that are holding bitcoin. They're looking at a portfolio, and

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Speaker 2: so maybe they have one, three five percent in bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: But if all of a sudden the straight up hermos

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Speaker 2: gets closed and gas prices start to go up because

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Speaker 2: the oil prices are going up and there's worries about

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Speaker 2: certain impact on the economy, well maybe they start to

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Speaker 2: go risk off. And if they go risk off, then

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Speaker 2: they may sell some assets like a bitcoin. What's unique though,

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Speaker 2: is that bitcoin is not sold off. Actually a bitcoin

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Speaker 2: is held in there really really strong, and so it

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Speaker 2: tells you that maybe people are expecting a little bit

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Speaker 2: higher levels of inflation and they think that bitcoin could

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Speaker 2: be a good inflation hedge.

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Speaker 1: But I think that's the complexity.

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Speaker 2: Now this went from kind of a ludites win where

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Speaker 2: just buy bitcoin all the time regardless of the cost

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Speaker 2: of capital or what's going on in the world, to

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Speaker 2: now you have a lot more people holding bitcoin that

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Speaker 2: are trying to figure out, you know, where does this

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Speaker 2: fit in a portfolio and how should I think about

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Speaker 2: my capital allocation.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, that's a great introduction to it from my audience.

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Speaker 3: You know, I think one of the interesting things that

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Speaker 3: I'm seeing, mostly with the volatility of the markets, right

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Speaker 3: now is everybody's super focused on oil, and they're saying,

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Speaker 3: if we get over what one hundred and twenty to

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Speaker 3: one and fifty dollars a barrel, we're guaranteed recession. People

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Speaker 3: are talking about a potential depression if we hit two hundred, right,

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Speaker 3: because of all the residual impacts of how it's going

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Speaker 3: to affect the supply chain out of China, China struggling

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Speaker 3: to get.

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Speaker 1: More oil, or India or wherever it might be.

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Speaker 3: The reverberations of that pinch is going to have long lasting,

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Speaker 3: deep impacts. I've heard you describe your confidence that if

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Speaker 3: this war or conflict, however you want to describe it

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Speaker 3: is what the administration is saying it's going to be,

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Speaker 3: which is another four to six weeks and then over that,

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Speaker 3: you don't believe it's going to have as great an

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Speaker 3: impact as people are predicting.

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Speaker 1: Is that true? Well, one way to.

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Speaker 2: Think about, you know, impacts on inflation is things take

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Speaker 2: time to work through the economy. So let's go to

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Speaker 2: Terraff's Baba as an example, and that we can talk

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Speaker 2: about oil. You know, when the tariffs got levied in

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Speaker 2: April of twenty twenty five, I think that people immediately

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Speaker 2: thought inflation was just going to spike, you know, overnight.

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Speaker 2: But if you think about how this works is when

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Speaker 2: those tariffs get levied, there's already a bunch of products

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Speaker 2: that are on ships or cargo planes on the way

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Speaker 2: to the United States, and so do they get here

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Speaker 2: before the tariffs actually get put in place or do

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Speaker 2: they not. That depends on what is the price change

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Speaker 2: going to be. Right, there's contracts that are already in

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Speaker 2: place where prices haven't been adjusted yet based on the

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Speaker 2: new kind of economic policies, and so I think that

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Speaker 2: as you see these policies work their way through the economy,

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Speaker 2: you can then say, okay, maybe over a six month

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Speaker 2: period or twelve month period, then you really start to

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Speaker 2: see the impact of it if you look at those tarifts.

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Speaker 2: One of the things that was really interesting was I

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Speaker 2: continue to say, hey, tariffs are not inflationary, their deflationary.

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Speaker 2: That was not a very popular thing to say, but

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Speaker 2: I think now the data is pretty overwhelming that that's true.

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Speaker 2: But people didn't finally conclude, Okay, maybe the tariffs aren't

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Speaker 2: going to be as inflationary until kind of the end

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Speaker 2: of Q three last year, and that's because they knew, well,

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Speaker 2: if you put the tariffs in place in April, the

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Speaker 2: inflations to start to hit in Q three. Oh wait,

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Speaker 2: the inflation's not here, right, And so it took a

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Speaker 2: while for people to kind of conclude there. Now, if

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Speaker 2: you go to the oil market, what is unique is

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Speaker 2: actually gas at the pump has significantly increased.

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Speaker 1: Already.

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Speaker 2: We have seen gas in America increase by about sixty

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Speaker 2: two cents since February twenty eighth, so three dollars and

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Speaker 2: sixty cents a gallon as of this morning. And the

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Speaker 2: reason why that's important is because actually oil is much

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Speaker 2: much more sensitive now. I think what is happening in

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Speaker 2: the moment and is people are trying to figure out, well,

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Speaker 2: what should the price of a barrel of oil be?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 2: You know, I was looking this morning at oil was

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Speaker 2: seventy seven dollars five days ago. It went to almost

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty, then it went back down to

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Speaker 2: seventy seven, and now it's at ninety two.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this thing is all over the place.

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Speaker 2: And a reason for that is normally, if something like

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Speaker 2: the Iran conflict kickoff, the US and Israel are bombing

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Speaker 2: the strait of hermses closed, you know, all these kind

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Speaker 2: of complexities. Oil would be at one twenty or one fifty,

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Speaker 2: but the United States went and took Maduro out of Venezuela,

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Speaker 2: and so we've got, you know, kind of access to

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Speaker 2: even more oil than what we produce ourselves. But on

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Speaker 2: top of that, we also have gotten some of the

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Speaker 2: leading developed nations around the world. You can think of

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Speaker 2: this as like Western nations who have now come out

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Speaker 2: and said that they are willing to release over four

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Speaker 2: hundred million barrels into the global supply. And so the

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Speaker 2: question then becomes, Okay, you can do certain things to

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Speaker 2: mitigate a skyrocketing oil price, but how long can you

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Speaker 2: do that? And so I think the question around what

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Speaker 2: is the impact of oil on inflation is really just

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Speaker 2: like how long does the Iran situation happen? And how

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Speaker 2: long is that straight closed for? If it's you know,

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Speaker 2: four weeks, it's not gonna be fun, but hey, it's

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Speaker 2: not going to have a massive impact.

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Speaker 1: If we start talking six months. Buckle up, right.

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Speaker 2: I think, you know, oil goes much higher than I

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Speaker 2: think that the inflation conversation definitely does become a bigger

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Speaker 2: part of you know what everyone's worried about.

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Speaker 3: Uh, you know, to hit that the inflation aspect. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: Powell is probably on his way out. I mean Trump's

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Speaker 3: tagged another guy. You know, do you think we need

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Speaker 3: a rate cut in order to stabilize this if it

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Speaker 3: does lengthen out or what would your be prediction be

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Speaker 3: because I mean, obviously we had a pathetic jobs number

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Speaker 3: report that came out earlier this week, and and so

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Speaker 3: how would you move if you were all of a

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Speaker 3: sudden tagged to be ahead of the Fed?

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Speaker 1: What would you do?

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Speaker 3: Well?

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Speaker 2: I think that the or two real jobs that the

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Speaker 2: FED has right one is to maintain some degree of

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Speaker 2: like maximum employment and then also to steady prices. And

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Speaker 2: I think what people are always looking at the FED

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Speaker 2: and frankly incorrectly critiquing them for, is they are looking

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Speaker 2: at the FED and they're saying, what is the static

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Speaker 2: thing in the moment in time? So what is the

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Speaker 2: CPI metric or what is the monetary policy or what

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Speaker 2: is going on you know, with economic policy, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: What is much more important, in my opinion, is looking

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Speaker 2: at the direction of travel of these things. And so

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Speaker 2: if you look at you know, the government metrics. I

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Speaker 2: pretty much when I hear the Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Speaker 2: put out a metric, I immediately just say stop listening.

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Speaker 1: There's no way that that thing is accurate, right, especially.

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Speaker 3: Because ever like two months later they downgrade it or

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Speaker 3: adjust the numbers dramatically.

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Speaker 1: Well, so there's an adjustments.

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Speaker 2: But like I'll maybe highlight a couple of issues with

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Speaker 2: the inflation calculation as maybe just one example. So in

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Speaker 2: the country, we have something known as a CPI metric,

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Speaker 2: which is inflation, and that is the consumer price index,

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Speaker 2: and the way that that is calculated it basically requires

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Speaker 2: them to go get data, bring that data in. They

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Speaker 2: then calculate via methodology that they have what should the

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Speaker 2: inflation number be, and then they present that to the

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Speaker 2: public into the central Bank. Now, when you look at

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Speaker 2: how they collect the data, it is insane. So a

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Speaker 2: couple of examples are they send physical people into physical

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Speaker 2: stores with physical tablets and say go find the Campbell

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Speaker 2: soup with low sodium and no salt. And I always

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Speaker 2: say that if we say to your audience, which are

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Speaker 2: obviously very intelligent, good looking people, for all of them

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Speaker 2: to go do that, somebody will make a mistake because

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Speaker 2: if I was told to go into the grocery store

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Speaker 2: and find all these different products, right, My wife sends

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Speaker 2: me to do that sometimes, and I still make mistakes

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Speaker 2: and I don't even have to find the exact perfect one.

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Speaker 2: And then they got to manually input the price, and

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Speaker 2: they're doing this all across the country, So obviously there's

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Speaker 2: some issues there. The second thing is they will call

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Speaker 2: people on the own and they'll say, hey, Dave, you

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Speaker 2: know you own your house. What do you think you

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Speaker 2: could rent it for? Well, on Friday night, when you're

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Speaker 2: hanging out with your buddies, ask them what they think

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Speaker 2: they could rent their house for. You'll hear some pretty

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Speaker 2: wild numbers, right, And so people just they don't have

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Speaker 2: a clue. They just make it up, and so I

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Speaker 2: think there's some issues there. Instead, I look at metrics

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Speaker 2: like the Trueflation Measurement. Trueflation is a real time alternative

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Speaker 2: inflation metric that basically says, look, rather than do all

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Speaker 2: this crazy stuff, why don't we just look at guaranteed,

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Speaker 2: verifiable data. So they take fourteen million data inputs from

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Speaker 2: forty different independent data providers and they basically calculate what

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Speaker 2: they think is inflation on a daily basis oh wow.

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Speaker 2: And the reason why that's interesting is because the government

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Speaker 2: is telling us inflation is two point four percent right now,

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Speaker 2: trueflation is telling us it's half of that, one point

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Speaker 2: two percent. And so if you're the central bank, if

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Speaker 2: you're looking at two point four you're saying, well, that's

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Speaker 2: above our two percent target. If you're a true inflation

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Speaker 2: and you're saying it's one point two, well now we're

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Speaker 2: below the target. Maybe we should be cutting rates. So

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Speaker 2: I think that the data is always going to be

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Speaker 2: a big issue. Now, if I was the FED chairman,

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Speaker 2: the first thing I would do is I would go

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Speaker 2: in and I would cut rates immediately. The reason I

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Speaker 2: would do that is tell everyone, hey, we're serious. And

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Speaker 2: the second thing is that people, again in that direction

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Speaker 2: of travel, drastically underestimate the deflationary forces that are swallowing

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Speaker 2: the US economy right now. And so I continue to

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Speaker 2: say that tariffs are deflationary, deportations are deflationary, AI and

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Speaker 2: robotics are deflationary. So you think that deportations is Last

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Speaker 2: year we had a negative two million net migration in

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Speaker 2: the United States. If you take two million people out

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Speaker 2: of the population, well, guess what happens. There's less people

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Speaker 2: competing for homes, there's less people competing for certain resources,

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Speaker 2: and so those prices go down because the demand is

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Speaker 2: not as high as it was before. If you look

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Speaker 2: at things like AI and robotics, you see all of

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Speaker 2: these little anecdotal examples. You know, Lemonade, which is a

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Speaker 2: big car insurance provider, they have come out now and

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Speaker 2: said that if you are driving a Tesla and you

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Speaker 2: have full self driving engaged, you will pay fifty percent

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Speaker 2: less on your insurance policy. And the reason why is

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Speaker 2: because the data shows that it is safer for full

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Speaker 2: self driving to be driving versus the human what's the fleationnary.

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Speaker 2: If you drop car insurance by fifty percent, then that

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Speaker 2: obviously is going to bring prices down. And so I

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Speaker 2: just think that we continue to look at things like

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Speaker 2: oil or short term movements and we ignore the fact

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Speaker 2: that there's this, like you know, Elon Musk calls it

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Speaker 2: a supersonic tsunami of deflation that's coming, and I just

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Speaker 2: think that that is a much much bigger risk than

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Speaker 2: you know, short term inflation expectations or anything like that.

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Speaker 3: All right, Before we get into the next aspect of this,

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Speaker 1: Who Yah love you guys. That is the talk of

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Speaker 1: the town.

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Speaker 3: Right is We've seen a lot of news stories relative

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Speaker 3: to AI its infusion into geopolitics, our military industrial complex.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 3: Zero Hedge, as I said, just posted an article suggesting

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Speaker 3: that we're almost out of rare earth minerals which we

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Speaker 3: put into our missile systems are autonomous vehicle systems, right,

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Speaker 3: and that China controls the majority of that. The other

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Speaker 3: reality is AI and the Super seven, Right, how long

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Speaker 3: do those continue to kind of prop up that uh,

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Speaker 3: the S and P five hundred in the markets right now?

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Speaker 3: Because with the right around a forty percent control balance

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Speaker 3: of of of the overall markets, is that sustainable? And

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Speaker 3: does AI continue to have a deflationary impact or does

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Speaker 3: the tsunami as he said, cause so much disruption in

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Speaker 3: high wage earning jobs i e. You know, white collar jobs.

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Speaker 3: I heard you talk about this a little bit. Does

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Speaker 3: that then reduce high paying jobs, which reduces, right, which

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Speaker 3: increases the jobless numbers, which then wants to drive those

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Speaker 3: inflationary numbers high. How would you how do you look

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Speaker 3: at AI as a disruptive impact on inflation as well

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Speaker 3: as the economy. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: You know what's really interesting is I can talk about

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Speaker 2: maybe my personal experience running businesses. Right, So I think

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Speaker 2: people hear artificial intelligence and they think that, oh my god,

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Speaker 2: everyone's going to lose their job. Well, what we actually

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Speaker 2: find is twofold one, we are actually not hiring net

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Speaker 2: new roles. In certain cases. We're still hiring in many roles,

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Speaker 2: but in certain cases we are not hiring net new

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Speaker 2: roles because those entry level type jobs can now be

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Speaker 2: replaced by artificial intelligence. And so no one lost their

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Speaker 2: job because of it, but you didn't gain a job

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Speaker 2: in the economy because of this artificial intelligence. The second

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Speaker 2: thing is my expectations for productivity for people in our

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Speaker 2: companies has grown substantially. You know, if all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: I give you super human intelligence, which means that now

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Speaker 2: you are smarter than you were six months ago, shouldn't

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Speaker 2: you be able to be more productive? Shouldn't you be

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Speaker 2: able to create more things?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 2: Shouldn't we drive more revenue or more profit in our

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Speaker 2: businesses because now we have superhuman intelligence? And so I

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Speaker 2: think that that's actually maybe one of the more interesting

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Speaker 2: stories here is now if you look at big companies,

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Speaker 2: a lot of them were bloated already.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of the example of Elon going into Twitter

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Speaker 2: and firing eighty percent of the staff and almost nobody

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Speaker 2: noticed type thing. Right, So some companies are already bloated.

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Speaker 2: But what I do think is maybe more likely is

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Speaker 2: if you look at something like Palenteer Pollunteer constantly keeps saying, Hey,

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Speaker 2: we're going to grow at the same rate or faster,

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Speaker 2: but we're going to do it with eight hundred less employees.

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Speaker 2: And so there they're basically saying that technology is going

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Speaker 2: to have an impact, you know, on this stuff. Now,

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Speaker 2: what I find maybe in terms of the inflation conversation,

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Speaker 2: is the reason why AI and robotics is so deflationary

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Speaker 2: is because ultimately it drives down the cost of things.

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Speaker 2: So a good example is if you look at Okay,

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Speaker 2: if I let's say humanoid robots become popular, right, I

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Speaker 2: can go and I can hire ten humans to do something,

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Speaker 2: or I can hire three humanoid robots. Which one do

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Speaker 2: you think is gonna be cheaper? Well, in the very

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Speaker 2: very short term, the humanoid robots may be more expensive,

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Speaker 2: but over time technology will drive the cost down and

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Speaker 2: a great place where you can see. This is like

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Speaker 2: a big screen TVs. I remember when I was like

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Speaker 2: a teenager, a big screen TV was like a crazy

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Speaker 2: luxury item, right, I mean, you know, twelve hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifteen hundred dollars. You would like beg your dad like please,

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Speaker 2: will you you know, get this? We want to play

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Speaker 2: video games or you know whatever, and he's like, are

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Speaker 2: you guys insane?

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Speaker 1: It's you know, fifteen hundred dollars at Best Buyer whatever.

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Speaker 2: Now you can go on Amazon and order sixty five

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Speaker 2: inch screen TV for like three hundred bucks.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, the technology is better, the sound

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Speaker 2: system is better, the you know imagery on the TV.

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Speaker 2: All that's better, but it's cheaper. How did that happen? Well,

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Speaker 2: it's because because of the deflationary nature of technology. And

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Speaker 2: so I think that is you know, kind of what

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Speaker 2: you're going to see show up. And the last thing

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Speaker 2: I'll say here is I do think that technology in

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Speaker 2: general shifts the way that we do things. And so

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Speaker 2: if you think about, you know, self driving cars, maybe

437
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 2: as a great example, it used to be that you

438
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 2: needed a individual to go and drive their own car.

439
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 2: But the wealthiest people in the country they had a driver. Well,

440
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 2: when they had a driver, guess what was really popular?

441
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:31,640
Speaker 2: Uber and Lyft came around, So what if we could

442
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 2: give you a driver just for this one trip? And

443
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 2: so they democratized access to having a driver and people

444
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 2: loved it. Right, So, now maybe I don't need to

445
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 2: own a car, or I can go to a city

446
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 2: and I don't need to drive myself around and do

447
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 2: all these things. Well, self driving cars is just democratizing

448
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 2: it a step further and saying everyone's going to have

449
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 2: their own driver all the time and it's going to

450
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 2: be safer, better or whatever. That is the trend of technology.

451
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 2: And so that pushes prices down and you can almost

452
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,480
Speaker 2: think of it as like how much does it cost

453
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,919
Speaker 2: per mindile to move a human? Well, we are already

454
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 2: substantially lower than we were ten years ago, and I

455
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 2: think that that's going to continue to fall. And so

456
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:10,440
Speaker 2: all of this is very very deflationary for inflation over

457
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 2: a medium to long term period.

458
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 3: All Right, let's shift gears a little bit and let's

459
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:18,120
Speaker 3: talk about the private credit pullbacks that we're seeing right now.

460
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 3: Over the last couple of weeks, we've seen Blackstone, black

461
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 3: Rock and JP Morgan talk about not a canceling of

462
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 3: access to but certainly a reduction or restrictions on some

463
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 3: of their funds.

464
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 1: It seems like, how does.

465
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 3: This affect an economy that might be moving into definitely

466
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 3: a bear market in terms as well as a low

467
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 3: growth period. And as with the AI disruption that you

468
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 3: talk about, right, there's going to be a considerable amount

469
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 3: of need for an influx of finance to come into

470
00:22:56,680 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 3: adapt to the emerging technologies, right, initially an outflow of

471
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 3: investment to integrate these types of technologies. Does does private

472
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 3: credit challenges? Do they last a long time? And how

473
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 3: do you protect you know what's taking place now? Is

474
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 3: this going to be long term or short term thing?

475
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, So to understand private credit, you have to understand

476
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 2: maybe how private credit became so popular, right, And if

477
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 2: you go back pre the global financial crisis, basically most

478
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 2: lending was done by businesses. If you were a small

479
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 2: medium sized the business, you went to your local bank

480
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 2: or a national bank and said, hey, here's my business plan,

481
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 2: maybe here's my you know, P and L, my balance sheet,

482
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 2: this is what I need the money for, and somebody

483
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 2: underwrote you and they gave you a loan but during

484
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:46,160
Speaker 2: the Global Financial crisis, there was some passage of legislation,

485
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 2: specifically the Dodd Frank Act, which really hampered the ability

486
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 2: for banks to go and do this type of lending.

487
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 2: And so if the banks are basically sidelined, well guess

488
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 2: what the businesses still need to borrow capital.

489
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: And so what do they do? They go when they

490
00:23:58,640 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 1: look for it somewhere else.

491
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:04,400
Speaker 2: Gave rise to private credit, and it basically allowed financial institutions,

492
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 2: whether they're large or small, to show up and say, hey,

493
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 2: you know, if you need a loan, well we got

494
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 2: money and we'll lend it to you, just like the

495
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 2: bank used to, but we may be able to do

496
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 2: it faster or cheaper, or maybe more expensive, or you know,

497
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 2: have different terms to it or whatever, but we'll lend

498
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 2: you the money. And so for the last I don't

499
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 2: know twelve to fifteen years, private credits exploded. You know

500
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 2: today it's estimated to be somewhere between three to four

501
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 2: trillion dollars in total size that is being lent out

502
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 2: to you know, these small medium sized businesses. Well, if

503
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,400
Speaker 2: you're lending money, just like in the Global financial crisis,

504
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 2: and you lend it to bad companies, you don't get

505
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 2: paid back. If you don't get paid back, then that

506
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 2: causes problems, right, And so in the private credit world,

507
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 2: I think the question right now is you know who

508
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 2: were you lending the money to over the last couple

509
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 2: of years, and how good are those businesses? And one

510
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 2: of the things that I think is really unique about

511
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 2: private credit is you don't have to mark to market

512
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 2: every single day. You know, if you hold a public stock,

513
00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,160
Speaker 2: if I hold Apple stock, well, if I ask you

514
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 2: how many or how much is ten shares of Apple worth,

515
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 2: you just go look at the stock market and say, well,

516
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 2: what's ten times a share price? And that's how much

517
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 2: it's worth. In private credit, you kind of guesstimate, right

518
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 2: you say, hey, I gave.

519
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,400
Speaker 1: You a loan. You maybe I lent you a million dollars.

520
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 1: You've been paying me back.

521
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 2: I think that this is still worth a million dollars,

522
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 2: or maybe I think it's worth one point one million. Well,

523
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: if all of a sudden, those businesses that I was

524
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 2: lending the million dollars to or having trouble, their ability

525
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 2: to pay me back may be withering away, and I

526
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 2: may not know it yet, or maybe I do know

527
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 2: it and I don't yet reflect it in the marks

528
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,199
Speaker 2: for that loan. And so now what we're starting to

529
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 2: see is as some of these companies go under, and

530
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 2: there's some very big examples Tricolor and some people in

531
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 2: the automotive space, that then pulls into question to the

532
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 2: private credit guys, who are you lending the money to

533
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 2: and are you likely to get paid back or not?

534
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 2: And so naturally, if you're an investor in a private

535
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,160
Speaker 2: credit fund, then you say, you know this private credit

536
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 2: thing I'm reading about in the headlines, I see you

537
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 2: know the oil thing going on.

538
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 1: I want my money back.

539
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 2: And so you go to the private credit manager and

540
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 2: you say, you know, I want to redeem my.

541
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:05,360
Speaker 1: Capital, keep my money back.

542
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 2: Well, if too many people do that at the same time,

543
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,919
Speaker 2: then the private credit managers got asked themselves, all the

544
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 2: money has been lent out, what do I do? And

545
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 2: so that's where you're hearing about these funds that are basically,

546
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 2: you know, some of them are selling off their loans

547
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:20,959
Speaker 2: and saying, hey, let me raise capitals. I can pay

548
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 2: back some of my investors. Some of them are doing

549
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 2: something called gating. They're basically saying, hey, you can't get

550
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 2: the money back right now. I'll give it back to

551
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 2: you later. But that's where you're hearing these rumblings of

552
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 2: private credit. Now, three trillion dollars is a big number,

553
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 2: but to give you a sense, it's only twice as

554
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 2: big as the bitcoin market right now, right, So it's big,

555
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,919
Speaker 2: but the global equity market is you know, hundreds of

556
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 2: trillions of dollars, and so it's still relatively small compared

557
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 2: to you know, asset classes like that. But what ends

558
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 2: up being really important is if all of a sudden

559
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:54,679
Speaker 2: there's these cracks in private credit and these people not

560
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 2: only can't extend more loans, but they have to pull

561
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 2: back their loans, you get a credit contraction. Well, the

562
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 2: US economy is built on credit expansion. More and more

563
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 2: money get it went out means we grow. So there's

564
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 2: a credit contraction. That means that the businesses that we're borrowing,

565
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 2: the small and medium sized businesses, they come under pressure,

566
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 2: they start to fire people, they start to have you know,

567
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 2: issues in their business, and that's where you can start

568
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 2: to get some recessionary effects. It's not so much the

569
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 2: predit credit the private credit guys, as much as the

570
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:22,879
Speaker 2: people that the private credit guys were giving money to.

571
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 2: They come under the pressure, and that's where it shows

572
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 2: up in the US economy. And so we're not there yet,

573
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 2: but definitely I think, you know, all eyes on private

574
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 2: credit at the moment, because if these issues are real

575
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 2: and bigger than maybe we anticipate, then yeah, you're going

576
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 2: to get some cracks throughout the system. And people just

577
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 2: want to understand, you know, what is the contained area

578
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 2: of this pressure and how pervasive is it compared to

579
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 2: maybe what we previously thought.

580
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 3: There's there's an idea out there. It's not an idea,

581
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,879
Speaker 3: it's a reality that over the next ten years, you know,

582
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 3: all the boomers are going to be starting to pass away.

583
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,919
Speaker 3: They're uh, they're gonna they're the they have more asset,

584
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 3: it's accumulated than any other generation in history, and those

585
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 3: assets will be transferring to their offspring or to whomever.

586
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 3: And that some estimates are you know, low, low, like

587
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 3: thirty five trillion in assets people high end, or eighty

588
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 3: eighty five trillion in assets are going to transfer into

589
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 3: these this new generation of young people. What are you

590
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 3: how do you think Bitcoin's going to play a role

591
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 3: in the future of that wealth transfer? Obviously I heard

592
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:36,679
Speaker 3: you talk a lot about the younger generations kind of

593
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 3: moving away from that traditional sixty forty portfolio. What are

594
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 3: you suggesting with the people that are beginning to receive

595
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 3: some of that transfer of wealth from their parents or

596
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 3: their grandparents, how are you directing them towards bitcoin?

597
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 1: And why? Well?

598
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: I think that bitcoin is important part of a portfolio,

599
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 2: but I don't believe that bitcoin should be one hundred

600
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 2: percent of most people's portfolio, right And so I think

601
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 2: that you've got to look at it in terms of

602
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 2: if you take a more traditional portfolio and you put

603
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 2: some allocation to bitcoin in there, it usually is a diversifier.

604
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 2: It allows you to really kind of smooth some volatility,

605
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: and it ends up being you know, usually non correlated.

606
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 2: It also tends to increase your sharp ratio and do

607
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 2: certain things. But the real problem with the sixty forty

608
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 2: portfolio is basically that forty percent of that portfolio is

609
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 2: really really under pressure right now in terms of bonds,

610
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 2: so global equities. You know, most people, if you're there

611
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 2: sixty forty the United States are gonna put sixty percent

612
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 2: in American equities, and whether that is the SMP, the Nasdaq,

613
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 2: or maybe they you know, think that the next warn

614
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 2: Buffett want to go pick individual stocks.

615
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 1: They're going to go and they're gonna put inequities.

616
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 2: And as long as you're not, you know, insane in

617
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 2: and put you know, thirty forty percent of your portfolio

618
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 2: on a single stock that maybe doesn't have a good

619
00:29:57,960 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 2: chance of being durable.

620
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 1: That's sixty percent should go up into the right over

621
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: a long period of time as the government debases the

622
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 1: currency now for forty percent, though, I always say that

623
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 1: bonds are the only thing guaranteed to lose value in

624
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 1: your portfolio, and.

625
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 2: People don't like to hear that, but you know, whenever

626
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 2: I hear that the financial advisor community is telling people,

627
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 2: you know, cash is safe, or bonds are safe, treasuries

628
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 2: are safe, I say, look, yeah, sure, if you're thinking

629
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 2: on the timeline of a couple of days, weeks, months, maybe,

630
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:29,719
Speaker 2: but over multiple years, you know, these assets lose enormous

631
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 2: amount of value. And if you look at something like TLT,

632
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,479
Speaker 2: which is the I Shares twenty Year Treasury Fund, it

633
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 2: is down thirty six percent over the last five years

634
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 2: just holding treasuries, right, but it's losing value because the

635
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 2: currency is being devalued so quickly, and so when you.

636
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 1: Look at that.

637
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 2: I do believe that that sixty forty portfolio is something

638
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 2: that worked for a long time and it became kind

639
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 2: of the safe thing. You know, nobody gets fired for

640
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 2: going to use IBM. Well, nobody gets fired for doing

641
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 2: the sixty forty portfolio is a financial advisor or as

642
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,479
Speaker 2: an investor. And so I think that really what you're

643
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 2: starting to see is people question, well, what should I

644
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 2: put in that forty percent? And I've got some friends

645
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 2: who are, you know, sixty percent equities, twenty percent goal,

646
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 2: twenty percent bitcoin. I've got some friends that are you know,

647
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 2: sixty twenty ten, ten, where maybe it's sixty percent equities,

648
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 2: twenty percent bonds and ten percent goal, ten percent bitcoin.

649
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 2: I have friends who, you know, they put real estate

650
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 2: or whatever, And so it really comes down to what

651
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 2: are you trying to accomplish? And I think that, you know,

652
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 2: somebody who is seventy five years old has very different

653
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 2: goals and situation than somebody who's twenty five years old.

654
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 2: And if we know one thing, I think that the

655
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 2: world has woken up to the fact that the case

656
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 2: shaped economy is driven by the people who hold assets

657
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 2: and the people who don't, and so it's less about

658
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 2: you know, tax rates and all this other stuff, and

659
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 2: it's just like, hey, did you learn at some point

660
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 2: did somebody tell you buy assets, don't hold cash? And

661
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 2: what I find very fascinating about that is the US

662
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 2: government is now stepping in and saying, hey, let's help

663
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 2: people here. And you know, I'm generally pretty uh skept

664
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 2: when the government says that they're going to help with something,

665
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 2: I tend to think that they are value destructive. You know,

666
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 2: they're very good at spending money and doing it in

667
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 2: an insane, you know, ways that don't create value. But

668
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 2: this idea of these invest America accounts or people call

669
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 2: them Trump accounts, where you know, we're going to give

670
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 2: newborn babies one thousand dollars and then people in that

671
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 2: baby's life can go and contribute more money and it's

672
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 2: going to compound over time. It's pretty interesting, Right, if

673
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 2: you give people a stake in the capitalist system, then one,

674
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 2: they're likely to end up with capital, right, you know,

675
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 2: over eighteen or twenty five years. But two is they're

676
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,719
Speaker 2: probably gonna like capitalism. They're not going to be you know,

677
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 2: running around telling everyone how socialism is amazing and we

678
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 2: should take all the money from you know, people and

679
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 2: redistribute it because I think that you know, two things

680
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 2: about the socialism conversation that always cracks me up is

681
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 2: there's a famous saying, you know, the problem with socialism

682
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 2: as you eventually run out of everyone else's money. And

683
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: then the second one is Javier Malay down in Argentina

684
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 2: recently gave it speech and when he gave the speech,

685
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 2: the Socialist party refused to clap for him, and he

686
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 2: looked at them and he said, you know, socialists can't

687
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: clap because they got their hands in everyone else's pockets

688
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 2: right now.

689
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: Gee. And so you know, I think that.

690
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 2: Capitalism is a pretty good system. And when you think

691
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 2: about portfolios, you know, stocks obviously will still continue to

692
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 2: do well as productive assets, but people are really questioning

693
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 2: what's going to go in that forty percent. And I

694
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 2: think young people are less likely to hold you know,

695
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 2: treasuries and other types of fixed income compared to maybe

696
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 2: their parents or grandparents.

697
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 3: I you know, it's always interesting, you know, you're trying

698
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 3: to get an idea because gen z is going to

699
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 3: be one of the most significant generations in history, right

700
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 3: They're the ones that are going to go through this

701
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:47,959
Speaker 3: massive shift in the geopolitical hierarchies. Right there's a monster

702
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 3: shift of power going right now. The old order of

703
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 3: things is pretty much in massive question. You know, I

704
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 3: see polling for rubio peaking and going past advance just

705
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 3: yesterday for the first time in terms of the future,

706
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 3: and I think, you know, the old guard is pushing

707
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 3: that because they they want to try and get back

708
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 3: to that the stability of that what we'll call it

709
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 3: the old school, uh, monetary policy, geopolitical policy, And that's

710
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 3: what's taking place as as we kind of move into

711
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 3: the the it seems to be that uncertainty and kinetic

712
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 3: actions overseas and and and volatility within the markets is

713
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 3: the new norm.

714
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:46,359
Speaker 1: Why do you is are you talked about correlation?

715
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 2: Uh?

716
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 3: And I know a lot of people are constantly trying

717
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 3: to correlate bitcoin to gold, or correlate bitcoin to the

718
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 3: S and P or correlated to whatever. But we continue

719
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,839
Speaker 3: to see that that's not exactly the case. What is

720
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 3: bitcoin correlated to? And how can people regain after you know,

721
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,479
Speaker 3: what took place a couple of weeks ago and going

722
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 3: back down to the bottom with sixty three? How can

723
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 3: you what do you have to say to people about

724
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 3: what bitcoin is correlated to and why it's a great

725
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 3: long term acid.

726
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, there's a couple of things here.

727
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 2: So Bitcoin historically has been non correlated, so you know,

728
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 2: people when they see a high correlation, they get nervous,

729
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 2: and when they see a negative correlation they think that

730
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 2: could be you know, nerve wrecking at times as well.

731
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:36,919
Speaker 2: The reason that non correlation is really fascinating in advantageous

732
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 2: is because if you put a bunch of non correlated

733
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,400
Speaker 2: assets in a portfolio, then you have the ability to

734
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 2: be resilient, right and bitcoin, I think has always been

735
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 2: thought of this like resilient asset. Yes, it's volatile, but

736
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 2: there's a deep seated confidence at over a long period

737
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:52,320
Speaker 2: of time it is very resilient. Now that has changed

738
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 2: in the last you know, I don't know, eighteen months

739
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 2: or so. Bitcoin right now is very correlated to software

740
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 2: stocks in particular, it's kind of been a risk on

741
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,720
Speaker 2: you know, high beta trade to software And the reason

742
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 2: why I think that that is occurring is we've basically

743
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 2: had a transfer of bitcoin ownership from the individuals who

744
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 2: didn't care about macro environment or interest rates or what's

745
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 2: going on in stock market. So now you've got these

746
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 2: institutions that are holding bitcoin. Some of it's through the ETF,

747
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 2: some of it's directly, and they're saying, well, when I

748
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,319
Speaker 2: want to go risk on, I want to be in

749
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:24,319
Speaker 2: in video, and I want to be in Amazon and

750
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 2: Pallanteer and Bitcoin and Tesla and these all things kind

751
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 2: of get lumped together, right, and so when they go

752
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 2: risk off, they sell all that stuff, and that's where

753
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 2: you get the correlations. Now, what I do find interesting

754
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 2: is bitcoin and gold. They used to be very correlated.

755
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 2: They are not so correlated right now. You know, the

756
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 2: numbers are moving on a data basis, but Bitcoin is

757
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 2: down about twenty percent to start the year and gold

758
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 2: is up about twenty percent to start the year. So

759
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 2: it's been, you know, kind of an alligator jaw, completely

760
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 2: different directions here. And so the question is do those

761
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 2: things ever converge, do they ever close? I think that

762
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 2: they will. The question really is just when does that happen,

763
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 2: And does that mean that gold goes down and bitcoin

764
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:02,280
Speaker 2: or does that mean bitcoin goes up and meets gold.

765
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 2: I don't know the answer to that, but but I

766
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 2: think that that's probably one of the big things right now.

767
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 2: Is if bitcoin can break the correlation to software stocks

768
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 2: and return back to you know, having a correlation with gold,

769
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 2: then I think that that'll end up being very good

770
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 2: for the bitcoin holders.

771
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 1: Awesome. Yeah, I.

772
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 3: Would love to see its independence continue. I love that

773
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 3: it's an asset that really is a has a mind

774
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,959
Speaker 3: of its own, so to speak. I think that's where

775
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 3: the real long term value is in it. So all right,

776
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 3: last question, what are you paying attention to right now?

777
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:44,280
Speaker 3: What are you telling your listeners to focus on? And

778
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 3: do you have any short term outlooks that people can

779
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 3: pay attention to you that some consistent some of the

780
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:59,799
Speaker 3: underlying consistencies in the volatility that can clear away the

781
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:00,880
Speaker 3: noise for people.

782
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,240
Speaker 2: My number one message to people right now is artificial

783
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 2: intelligence is very real and there is a jump ball

784
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 2: situation that they should take seriously. So if we go back,

785
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,840
Speaker 2: you know my experience with bitcoin, I heard about it

786
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 2: in twenty twelve. I literally have a DM with an

787
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 2: individual and I'm basically like, you know, you sound insane essentially.

788
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 2: In twenty fourteen, I was working at Facebook. We hired

789
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 2: David Marcus, the president of Paypalell came over and he

790
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 2: kept talking about bitcoin. Sat maybe one hundred feet from me,

791
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 2: and I asked an engineer. I said, what's he talking about?

792
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 2: And the guy said, you know, it's stupid. Didn't do anything.

793
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 2: And it was only in twenty sixteen did I say, hey,

794
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 2: maybe I should, you know, take some time to look

795
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 2: at this. And my wife always tells a story of

796
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 2: she came home one day and I was sitting there

797
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 2: and I literally had books and papers and you know,

798
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 2: I basically looked like a math nerd who was, like,

799
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 2: you know, cramming.

800
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 1: For a test.

801
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 2: And she said, look, if there's one thing I know

802
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 2: about you, you did not do any of that in school.

803
00:38:55,960 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 2: So what are you doing? And I said to her,

804
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 2: I said, you know, I'm trying to learn about this thing.

805
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 2: It seems like this is going to be important. And

806
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 2: so I went and I did the work for it,

807
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 2: and I wish I'd done it earlier, but eventually I

808
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 2: did do it. AI to me, feels like that's the

809
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 2: moment right now, right is go and learn how to

810
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 2: do this, Understand how the LMS work, Understand all these

811
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 2: product releases that are coming out, Understand what people are

812
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:23,320
Speaker 2: doing with this stuff. Because if you are a young person,

813
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 2: there are two things you can do with AI. You

814
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 2: can go and you can create product services and companies,

815
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 2: meaning that you can kind of be on your own.

816
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 2: You can serve people solve problems and use AI to

817
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 2: do it. But also, if you have a job, the

818
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 2: single most coveted spot over the next five years inside

819
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:40,719
Speaker 2: big corporations is going to be the young person that

820
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 2: is deemed to be the AI expert. So if you're

821
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 2: the person who understands how the technology works and you

822
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,839
Speaker 2: work in a big, bloated, bureaucratic organization, they are going

823
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 2: to love you. You are going to get way more credit

824
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 2: than you deserve for even understanding how to spell AI,

825
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 2: let alone how to use it.

826
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 1: And so I think that that's probably one big aspect.

827
00:39:57,960 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 3: Now.

828
00:39:58,080 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 2: The second thing is that people should be using this

829
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 2: in there day to day life. And so as I

830
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:03,839
Speaker 2: went down this rabbit hole and really started to get

831
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,799
Speaker 2: better at it and understand it better, one of the

832
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 2: things I wanted to do is I want to be

833
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 2: able to use AI for my investing portfolio. And so

834
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 2: I went to chat, GBT and you know, Gemini and

835
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 2: grack all these things. And one of the problems that

836
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 2: I found was I was using you know, the superhuman

837
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 2: intelligence through the olms, but every time I'd ask it

838
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:23,800
Speaker 2: a question to get generic advice back, and the advice

839
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 2: was essentially just didn't have my context. And so we

840
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 2: actually built a product called CFO Sylvia that you come

841
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 2: in and you attach all your accounts and you know,

842
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:36,359
Speaker 2: provide all this context around what are the assets you own.

843
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 2: And then when you talk to Sylvia, you're talking to

844
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 2: a model. But what that model is doing is is

845
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 2: essentially allowing us to feed the context of your portfolio

846
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 2: with every query. So if you ask something, for example,

847
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 2: you know what is going to be the impact on

848
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 2: the market in my portfolio if oil prices are higher

849
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 2: for a longer period of time, Sylvia will come back

850
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 2: and explain to you what's likely to happen in the market.

851
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 2: But then go asset by asset in your portfolio and

852
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 2: explain exactly what is likely to happen. And so that's

853
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 2: where I think AI becomes really interesting, is you start

854
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:08,799
Speaker 2: to use the superhuman intelligence plus the context of your

855
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 2: personal life. And you know, we've seen people do some

856
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 2: pretty crazy thing. We saw one guy who told us

857
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 2: he wanted to do something we ended up actually turning

858
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 2: us into a feature, but he was uploading his tax

859
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 2: return and asking Sylvia to tell him how to get

860
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 2: his tax rate down right, and so, you know, going

861
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 2: and understanding everything about his life and how his income work,

862
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 2: et cetera, and then going in and explaining that. And

863
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:31,879
Speaker 2: so I just think like, that's the area where AI

864
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 2: to me is really going to be valuable. Is you know,

865
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 2: the context of your fitness or your health records and

866
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 2: stuff like, how how do I get healthier?

867
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:40,880
Speaker 1: You know, what food am I eating?

868
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:43,359
Speaker 2: What does my portfolio look like, what is my day

869
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 2: to day, what's my email?

870
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 1: You know?

871
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 2: How do you apply AI to these different areas? And so,

872
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 2: you know, we're pretty focused because of my interest in

873
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 2: investing on CFO Sylvia and applying it there. But I

874
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 2: think this is going to become pervasive across the economy,

875
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:57,919
Speaker 2: and I think that people who can go and learn

876
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 2: these skills, learn this technology, they're going to end up

877
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 2: in a much better place than maybe the people who

878
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 2: otherwise are going to kind of sit back and say,

879
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 2: you know, I don't know if that thing is real

880
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 2: or not.

881
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I I one of the most prominent questions I ask,

882
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:13,920
Speaker 3: and you know, I in my speaking I generally am

883
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 3: speaking to financial.

884
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 1: Advisors on a regular base.

885
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:18,479
Speaker 3: I was just in front of a fifty billion dollar

886
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 3: RIA in the center part of the country last week,

887
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 3: and I asked the question, how many people have invested

888
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 3: at least twenty hours in legitimate elite level AI training

889
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 3: to incorporate in your business. And it wasn't just you know,

890
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 3: portfolio evaluations or anything. It was marketing, it was you know,

891
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 3: customer contact, whether you know, it was across the board.

892
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 3: And at this company, which had a lot of young people,

893
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 3: which was cool. You know, I got probably six hands

894
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 3: that went up that were really really dedicated. But like

895
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 3: I've been in front of other you know, of the

896
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 3: wirehouses out there, and like these are the biggest producers

897
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 3: in their city in there, you know, in in in

898
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,320
Speaker 3: these firms, and I'd get, you know, fifty people in

899
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 3: the room, I get one person that raise their hand

900
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 3: and then I pin down on them. All right, once

901
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 3: your training, they're like, oh, I've watched a few YouTube videos,

902
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 3: and so it's like there there is a division right

903
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 3: based on demographics who are more in line with like,

904
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:21,280
Speaker 3: oh I'm past it, I'm not gonna worry, I'm gonna

905
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 3: transition that's why you see I think you've seen a

906
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:26,280
Speaker 3: lot of people try and dump their books on younger

907
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 3: or you know, other firms independence that are consolidating right now,

908
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 3: you know, but I agree, I really believe the younger

909
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 3: generation that is incorporating this system, these systems into how

910
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 3: they assist their clients. Right, It's not they're not and

911
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 3: those people are not deathly afraid of it overwhelming and

912
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 3: taking over their business. They're like, no, this is going

913
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 3: to make me superman in my business. And I think

914
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 3: that's a really positive, positive attribute to what's going on

915
00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:05,880
Speaker 3: all right. You know, last question, I promise what would

916
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:13,760
Speaker 3: you like to see come out of the Trump administration

917
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 3: in the next thirty days that could help potentially stabilize

918
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:22,839
Speaker 3: some of the market worries or some of the volatility.

919
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:25,279
Speaker 3: What would you like Trump to either say or what

920
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 3: would you like them to do? We did see the

921
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:30,360
Speaker 3: Treasury bought back what was it, I think it was

922
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 3: sixteen billion dollars in debt or or I forget what

923
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 3: the number was, but you there there. They've always been

924
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 3: hyper concerned on promoting the strong markets that hey, listen

925
00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 3: to tariffs, we're doing all that. But he's taken a

926
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 3: series of pretty significant economic hits as a result of

927
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:53,800
Speaker 3: the Supreme Court pushing back on that the oil price

928
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 3: is going high. Potentially are our military industrial complex not

929
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,160
Speaker 3: being up to speed to maintain this long term? What

930
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:05,359
Speaker 3: would you like to hear the Trump administration say that

931
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 3: can be a positive aspect of of what we're going

932
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:12,240
Speaker 3: to see in the next three to six months financially.

933
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 2: Well, it's not during the Trump administration, but maybe Dave

934
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 2: Rutherford becoming president one day would be would be a

935
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 2: good one. But for for this administration, the single most

936
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 2: important thing that they could do is uh win an

937
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 2: Iran and do it quickly. If they do that, then

938
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 2: investors get clarity, they get certainty, they get you know,

939
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 2: a lack of kind of conflict. Then I think markets

940
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:37,879
Speaker 2: will you know, rip higher, and everyone will will have.

941
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 1: Amnesia, you know.

942
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:41,319
Speaker 2: I always joke that it's been I don't know eight

943
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 2: weeks since we went and grabbed Maduro down in Venezuela,

944
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 2: and people are like already forgot right, It's just you know,

945
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 2: like what And so I think that that's probably the

946
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 2: single most important thing is winning and doing it quickly.

947
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 2: The second thing is I think that they've got to

948
00:45:56,600 --> 00:46:01,720
Speaker 2: continue to reiterate their commitment to one, you know, making

949
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 2: sure that oil prices do not spike significantly higher. Two is,

950
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 2: I think that the affordability agenda domestically is very important,

951
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:12,800
Speaker 2: and I think we've got to be careful that we

952
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 2: don't chase doing you know, government intervention that is short

953
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 2: term good but long term destructive. And so how do

954
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 2: you go and say to yourself, Okay, let's take housing affordability. Well, like,

955
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 2: the number one thing we can do in housing affordability

956
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 2: is build more homes. But you can't snap your fingers

957
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 2: and build them. And so you've got to have a

958
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:33,359
Speaker 2: long term plan, but you've got to have short term action.

959
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:35,840
Speaker 2: And I think that you know, they've started down that path,

960
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:38,359
Speaker 2: but continue to do that. It's important. And then last,

961
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 2: but not least, is this is a little bit of

962
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 2: a weird way to view this, but but I do

963
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 2: think it's really important. Is one of the things that

964
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 2: I believe the government is most important for doing is

965
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 2: stoking patriotism in the country. And the reason why I

966
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:55,880
Speaker 2: think that is so important is because ultimately, you know,

967
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 2: America's power has really been in its collective belief in

968
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 2: a brain future and in the power and innovation of America.

969
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 2: You know, if you go when you look over the years,

970
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 2: people have always believe like America will figure it out.

971
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 2: America has, you know, got the people, the talent, the capital,

972
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 2: et cetera to be able to do this. And I

973
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 2: think that, you know, I'm very fond of the saying

974
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 2: of you know, kind of assimilation in America where you

975
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 2: can go to Italy but you can't become Italian. You

976
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:23,319
Speaker 2: can go to Spain, you can't become Spanish. You can

977
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 2: come to America and become American. That's right, right, And

978
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 2: so the ability to do that, I think is really important.

979
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 2: But driving this belief that hey, we are all more

980
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 2: similar than we are different is important as long as

981
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,319
Speaker 2: people are willing to assimilate into the American way of

982
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 2: life and the values and kind of what we're trying

983
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,160
Speaker 2: to accomplish. And so I do think that the government

984
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 2: has a unique position to be able to do that.

985
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 2: And so if they're able to kind of three pronged approach,

986
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 2: you know when and do it quickly in Iran, have

987
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 2: the domestic affordability agenda, and then also continue to stoke

988
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 2: this feeling of patriotism, especially in young people, then I

989
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 2: think that will be in good shape.

990
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:02,439
Speaker 3: Outstanding sir. All right, mister Pompleiano. Where can people sign

991
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 3: up for the newsletter, follow you and watch your daily show? Yeah,

992
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,440
Speaker 3: I appreciate it. If you want to listen to or

993
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 3: read the newsletter, just go to a pump letter dot com.

994
00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:15,320
Speaker 3: And then if you want to sign up for Sylvia,

995
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 3: you can just go to c f O Sylvia s

996
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:20,399
Speaker 3: I l V I A dot com and you can

997
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 3: get set up there for for free.

998
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 1: Awesome.

999
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 3: Thank you so much, sir, God bless you and what

1000
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 3: you're doing. Thank you guys for having me