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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. It's

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Speaker 1: time to place your bets for the NFL Future Award markets.

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Speaker 1: That's right, we're talking our top picks to take home

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Speaker 1: the MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of

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Speaker 1: the Year, and Rookie of the Year trophies. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Seth Woolcock, back with our NFL betting expert, who is

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Speaker 1: the heir to some Patriots season tickets, also a known

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Speaker 1: AJ Brown truther, so he's just having the summer of

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Speaker 1: a lifetime along that New England coast. He's mister big

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Speaker 1: pod energy himself. Andrew Erickson ericson. Great to have you

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Speaker 1: today on the program. How is the slow time of

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Speaker 1: the NFL calendar treating you so far? And you're Are

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Speaker 1: you excited to start building our NFL futures portfolio here today, man.

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Speaker 2: Seth, Happy to see you. Happy to see you in

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Speaker 2: the first time since you've gotten married. Shout out to

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Speaker 2: you and your wife Katie. Glad you guys had a

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Speaker 2: splendid wedding. A lot it was a bad day to

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Speaker 2: be a beer but besides that, so I know you

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Speaker 2: had a great, fantastic times of Congrats to you, but yeah, man,

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Speaker 2: Patriots off season has been electric to say the least.

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Speaker 2: Acquiring aj Brown AJB wide receiver one season is a

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Speaker 2: full go touching grass, just avoiding the poops that are

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Speaker 2: coming from my puppy when I'm touching the grass. So

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Speaker 2: all in all, I can't complain. It's usually it's been sunny,

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Speaker 2: been hot. So yeah, man a we're living it up

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Speaker 2: here in June. But ready to sprinkle in some of

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Speaker 2: these NFL futures with you.

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Speaker 3: I completely agree.

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Speaker 1: It's a great time to start looking at some of

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Speaker 1: those early line values where can we turn a profit,

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Speaker 1: even maybe before the season kicks off officially in September.

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Speaker 1: So excited to dive into everything you have today for us,

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Speaker 1: and as noted, today's show does look like this. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna break down the betting odds and our favorite plays

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Speaker 1: for the NFL MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive

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Speaker 1: Player of the Year, and Rookie of the Year markets

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Speaker 1: for both the offensive and defensive side.

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Speaker 3: Of the ball.

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Speaker 1: And before we dive into all the action, just wanted

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Speaker 1: to thank everyone who's out there across the Internet tuning

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Speaker 1: in here, either on the Bank Pro's YouTube channel or

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Speaker 1: the audio feed.

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Speaker 3: These these freeways support us. Give this video a thumbs up.

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Speaker 1: We'd really appreciate that, and also make sure you subscribe

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Speaker 1: if you enjoyed this type of content and if you're

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Speaker 1: new and Andrew. Let's start in the MVP market where

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Speaker 1: last year Matthew Stafford won the NFL MVP opened up

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Speaker 1: at thirty five to one. He became the thirteenth straight

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Speaker 1: quarterback to win the award. Therefore, the sportsbooks playing pretty

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Speaker 1: close to the vest right now. I'd say the other

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Speaker 1: favorites currently right now Josh Allen if you also include

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Speaker 1: prediction markets plus eight h nine, the best value for him,

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson nine to one, Joe Burrow ten to one,

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Speaker 1: Justin Herbert eleven to one, Drake May twelve to one,

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Speaker 1: off that sensational sophomore year Patrick Mahons plus thirteen twenty nine.

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Speaker 1: We also have Matthew Stafford coming back in at fourteen

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Speaker 1: to one. Kleob Williams cover the mat and also gonna

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Speaker 1: get fifteen to one odds fifteen plus fifteen sixty seven

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Speaker 1: for Dak Prescott, twenty two to one for Dak Prescott

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Speaker 1: in twenty four to one for Trevor Lawrence. So Andrew

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Speaker 1: looking at the board here, what are the best overall

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Speaker 1: bets that you're currently considering to add to that portfolio.

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Speaker 2: So the ones that I like the most from the

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Speaker 2: favorites are Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. Those are kind

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Speaker 2: of the two guys that stand out to me as

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Speaker 2: some decent values. Joe Burrow at ten to one, like

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Speaker 2: you said, Josen Herbert at eleven to one. We know

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Speaker 2: this is somewhat of a narrative driven award when it

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Speaker 2: comes to, okay, the best quarterback on the team that

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Speaker 2: wins double digit games. Now, in the past, it has

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Speaker 2: been you needed to be the number one seed most

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Speaker 2: of the time, but the last two seasons that has

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Speaker 2: not been the case. Josh Allen won in twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: four they had the second best record in the AFC.

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Speaker 2: Last year, the Matthew Stafford led Rams. They didn't even

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Speaker 2: win the NFC West they were twelve and five, but

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Speaker 2: obviously Stafford put up bonkers touchdown numbers and ended up

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Speaker 2: taking home the MVP Awards. So as long as you're winning,

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Speaker 2: you know eleven, twelve, thirteen types of games, that usually

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Speaker 2: puts you in that conversation. Along with being the best

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Speaker 2: quarterback of the you know the season that we're talking

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Speaker 2: about now. So Joe Burrow to me, whenever he's healthy,

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Speaker 2: I think that there's always an argument you made that

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Speaker 2: he is the best quarterback in the NFL. It's just

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Speaker 2: a matter of health. The Bengals their schedule third easiest

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Speaker 2: this year, and if the defense can do anything anything,

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Speaker 2: just be average and help this team win games. Because

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Speaker 2: you look at Burrow the last three fully healthy seasons,

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Speaker 2: he's played averaging over ten and a half wins. So

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Speaker 2: healthy Joe Burrow plus an improved defense, easy schedule. You

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Speaker 2: look at the way that the AFC North has set

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Speaker 2: up three new head coaches. The only returning head coach

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Speaker 2: is Zach Taylor. So I know Zach Taylor's not necessarily

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Speaker 2: the one that we love. He's also usually near the

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Speaker 2: top of the list of coaches most likely to get fired.

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Speaker 2: But if it works in their favor that they have

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Speaker 2: some congruity, I think that this could actually work in

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Speaker 2: the Bengal Again. We really like the Bengals, myself Debro

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Speaker 2: as a team that we like the win total going

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Speaker 2: over it's at nine and a half wins, So I

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Speaker 2: think that the Bengals are going to be a position

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Speaker 2: where if Joe Burrow plays like he should play when

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Speaker 2: he is healthy with all these weapons, defense plays a

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Speaker 2: little bit better helps him win more games. I think

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Speaker 2: that you could see Joe Burrow in this conversation throughout

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Speaker 2: the entire season and even in some of these primetime

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Speaker 2: matchups where Joe Burrow has had no problem beating teams

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Speaker 2: like the Bills and the Chiefs throughout his career, So

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Speaker 2: when you're looking at those head to head matchups, I

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Speaker 2: think Joe Burrow also has a chance to kind of

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Speaker 2: shine out and shine above some of these other guys

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Speaker 2: that are favored a little bit or the odds are

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Speaker 2: a little bit shorter.

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Speaker 1: Hey, that's totally understandable, and it feels like, if not

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Speaker 1: now win for Joe Burrow to put himself in this conversation.

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Speaker 1: My only issue there is like, maybe this is when

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Speaker 1: I want to place after Week one or two, because

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, the Bengals typically slow starters. They're going to

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Speaker 1: be going off in Week one against the Buccaneers and

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Speaker 1: then the Texans and then the Steelers, so a couple

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Speaker 1: of tough matchups there, two of those being on the

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Speaker 1: road against pretty good defenses there in Pittsburgh and Houston.

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Speaker 1: So that's my only concern with Burrow is like, maybe

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Speaker 1: this is one I'm placing mid September late September. Any

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Speaker 1: thoughts about maybe slow playing that or do you think

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Speaker 1: this is the year that Joe Burrow and the boys

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Speaker 1: finally get off to a buzz and start.

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Speaker 2: Well if you recalled to last year, they didn't have

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Speaker 2: a slow start. Last year. They were two and oh

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Speaker 2: and then Joe Burrow got hurt in the second game

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Speaker 2: and then that obviously unraveled the rest of the season.

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Speaker 2: So I do remember talking about this in the Betting

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Speaker 2: Broughs discord, and I think on some of the shows

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Speaker 2: where Zach Taylor had come out and said, We're gonna

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Speaker 2: play our guys in the preseason. We can't start sluggish anymore.

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Speaker 2: We have to play our guys, and you start to

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Speaker 2: see that at least work out. I think last year

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Speaker 2: they played the Browns in Week one, so it wasn't

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Speaker 2: at the time necessarily like this Marque matchup, and they

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Speaker 2: played the Jacksonville Jaguars. I believe in Week two bro

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Speaker 2: ends up getting hurt in that game, but they end

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Speaker 2: up winning. So I'm not as hesitant to fire on

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Speaker 2: this now, especially when you last year I think it

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Speaker 2: was Joe Brow plus six fifty to be envy. Yes,

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Speaker 2: it was so anything so ten to one. I still

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Speaker 2: think it's pretty good value. I do think it's a

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Speaker 2: good point though, considering they played the Texans. It's a

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Speaker 2: really tough defense. Jo Brow may not put up really

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Speaker 2: good numbers in that particular game, but that Tampa Bay

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Speaker 2: Buccaneers matchup in League One, you could see some some fireworks,

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Speaker 2: particularly in that matchup. So I don't hate or I'm

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Speaker 2: okay if you want to wait, I'm still okay with

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Speaker 2: firing on it. And the same thing with Justin Herbert.

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Speaker 2: But I think it's probably my favorite of the two

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Speaker 2: of the more favored guys. He did get MVP of

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Speaker 2: a VOUTE last year. Justin Herbert did because of what

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Speaker 2: he was able to do in this offense that I

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Speaker 2: just he was doing everything. If you watched the Chargers

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Speaker 2: last year, he was a one man show. The offensive

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Speaker 2: line was totally just.

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Speaker 3: Completely tackles whatsoever, no tackles.

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Speaker 2: Just Herbert's playing through a broken hand. He's still out there.

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Speaker 2: I think he was the most hit quarterback of last

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Speaker 2: year and how many How many games did the Chargers win?

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Speaker 2: They won eleven games last year, and then they just

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Speaker 2: ran out of gas in the playoffs where they didn't

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Speaker 2: really stand a chance, you know, going on the road

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Speaker 2: against the Patriots. So I really think that justin Herbert,

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Speaker 2: he with Mike McDaniel coming in as a new offensive coordinator,

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Speaker 2: I'm just really excited for this offense. If they're healthier.

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Speaker 2: We saw some of the splits with Herbert last year

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Speaker 2: when those offensive tackles were healthy in the lineup, he

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Speaker 2: looked like an MVP player. If they got they can

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Speaker 2: stay healthy upfront. He has depth at the receiver position,

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Speaker 2: He's got depth at tight end. If you run the

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Speaker 2: ball effectively with McDaniel, with o'mary and Hampton heat Mitchell

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Speaker 2: look nine and a half win total, same as the Bengals.

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Speaker 2: And to the converse point of what you talked about

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Speaker 2: with the Bengals where slow starters. First two weeks of

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Speaker 2: the season, Chargers play the Cardinals and the Raiders.

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Speaker 3: Oh baby baby, So we're.

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Speaker 2: Talking about sparks flying early. I can really see this

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Speaker 2: Chargers team jumping out to a very very hot start,

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Speaker 2: and then you're gonna see these odds reduced dramatically as

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Speaker 2: we're entering Week three when the schedule does get much

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Speaker 2: tougher for the Chargers. But they have to win these

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Speaker 2: big games, right, whether it's the Denver Broncos, whether it's

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Speaker 2: the Kansas City Chiefs, if against Patrick Mahomes, Herbert's gonna

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Speaker 2: have a chance in some of these primetime spots and

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Speaker 2: marquee matchups. To cement himself as hey, I should be

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Speaker 2: the MVP this season. And I think that as long

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Speaker 2: as they don't rely too much on running the football,

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Speaker 2: and you're seeing Hampton score all the touchdowns. If Herbert

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Speaker 2: is calling his number, he's rushing, he's throwing touchdowns, he

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Speaker 2: looks great, he looks fantastic. Yeah, I think he can

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Speaker 2: win this award. And another thing too, I want to

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Speaker 2: point out is doing some research. This is from clev Analytics,

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Speaker 2: basically talking about how the average age of the MVP

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Speaker 2: quarterback is usually around twenty seven to twenty eight years old.

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Speaker 2: So last year Matthew Stafford with a bit of an

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Speaker 2: outlier as an older quarterback, certainly Justin Herberts twenty eight

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Speaker 2: years old. This is typically when you see quarterbacks hit

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Speaker 2: some of their prime years. So I think Herbert could

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Speaker 2: be in for your career year, and that's why I

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Speaker 2: like him at eleven to one to win MVP.

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Speaker 3: It's an interesting number.

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Speaker 1: Herbert's someone I didn't really consider at his current odds,

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Speaker 1: but I like what you said, like, if you're going

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Speaker 1: to get down on this, probably get down on it

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Speaker 1: early with those Leaker opponents slay to start the season.

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Speaker 3: And I also just love what the Chargers have been

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Speaker 3: doing here.

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Speaker 1: I think Omary and Hampton, if I could find the

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Speaker 1: right number for him for OPOY, I would be interested

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Speaker 1: there because I think he set up to have a

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Speaker 1: great year.

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Speaker 3: We know, of course, McDaniels.

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Speaker 1: Is coming over from this Kyle Shanahan system that he

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Speaker 1: took to Miami and build a really good run game, right,

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Speaker 1: and I think a lot of people that's scaring them off.

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Speaker 1: But he's also never worked with a quarterback like Justin Herbert, right,

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Speaker 1: he was dealing with Mike White and two and Zach Wilson,

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Speaker 1: those types of quarterbacks down there in Miami. So I

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Speaker 1: think having Justin Herbert here another full year to develop

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Speaker 1: in this hardball system, and also you factor in like

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Speaker 1: this this wide receiving course. All of a sudden pretty good, right,

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Speaker 1: Lad McConkey. QJ has come a long way in the

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Speaker 1: past two or so years. Trey Harris, what does he

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Speaker 1: have in his sophomore year? If Ole miss and Oroande

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Speaker 1: Gaston Junior as well at tight end, I think you

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Speaker 1: can do a lot worse than that. So justin Herbert

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Speaker 1: eleven to one, I don't hate that one at all.

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Speaker 1: What's your best overall value?

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Speaker 3: Maybe a little bit of a long shot in this

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Speaker 3: particular market, Andrew.

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Speaker 2: For me, it's Trevor Lawrence at twenty four to ten

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Speaker 2: to win the MVP Award. I don't always want to

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Speaker 2: cite fantasy stats on the Betting Pro Show, but after

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Speaker 2: Week five, no quarterbacks scored more Fantasy points than Trevor

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Speaker 2: Lawrence did.

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Speaker 3: Wow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, more Fantasy points per game than Josh Allen, than

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Speaker 2: Drake May, than Matthew Stafford. So he really started to

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Speaker 2: click and fire on all cylinders in Liam Cohen's offense.

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Speaker 2: And that was despite kind of a rotating carousel of receivers. Right,

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Speaker 2: Travis Hunter was a fixture in the offense, then he

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Speaker 2: got hurt. Brian Thomas Junior was in out lineup, Jehobey

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Speaker 2: Myers was a guy they traded for midway through the year.

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Speaker 2: Now all these guys are back and is ready to

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Speaker 2: go in certain roles, and Parker Washington is another player

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Speaker 2: that seems like Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence are really

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Speaker 2: excited to take another step forward as a slot player.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of toys that Trevor Lawrence can play

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Speaker 2: with his second year in Liam Cohen's offense. And going

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Speaker 2: back to the point I made earlier, twenty seven years

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Speaker 2: old Trevor Lawrence. It is crazy to think that he's

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Speaker 2: only twenty seven years old, but he came out of

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Speaker 2: Clemson so early. Guys that are twenty seven years old

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Speaker 2: this season, Bo Nicks, Trevor Lawrence, Rock Purdy, Tyler Shuck

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Speaker 2: wo Like, it's like a really weird list of quarterback names,

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Speaker 2: but typically this has been when a lot of quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: hit their prime year statistically. So when I'm just looking at, hey,

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence, could the planets align for him? I mean

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Speaker 2: last year two there was a lot to really like

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Speaker 2: thirty eight total touchdowns last year that trailed only Matthew

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Speaker 2: Stafford Josh Allen, and it was actually more than Drake

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Speaker 2: may who was second in the MVP running. He had

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Speaker 2: nine rushing touchdowns in the red zone last year, second

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Speaker 2: only to Josh.

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Speaker 3: Allen Colin's ozone number.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Colin is own number. I think they continue to

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Speaker 2: do more design stuff and the thing that kind of

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Speaker 2: gets me even more on Trevor Lawrence. They're also playing

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Speaker 2: the Browns week one, so you feel good about that.

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Speaker 2: No Miles Garrett, so a less imposing defense to start

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Speaker 2: things off. Liam Cohen was second and Coach of the

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Speaker 2: Year awards last year voting, so clearly the teams are

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Speaker 2: starting to vote and look at the Jaguars as a

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Speaker 2: team like okay, like this team could really take another

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Speaker 2: step forward potentially in the second year with Liam Cohen.

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Speaker 2: They like to throw the ball in the red zone,

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Speaker 2: like to throw the ball overall in general, one of

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Speaker 2: the highest rates in terms of pass over expectations. So

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Speaker 2: I think everyone has a chance to throw a lot

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Speaker 2: of touchdowns, rush for a lot of touchdowns. And in

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Speaker 2: the AFC South, we know, hey, it's anyone's division more

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Speaker 2: often than not. So even if they they don't post

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Speaker 2: the best record in the AFC, I think this doesn't

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Speaker 2: potentially flirt with double digit wins. Trevor Lawrence, Yeah, maybe

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Speaker 2: this is his time to shine, So, especially at twenty

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Speaker 2: four to one, I do like him as my long

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Speaker 2: shot MVP dark horse candidate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not bad odds at all there, especially like you

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Speaker 1: talk about the receiving corps, maybe not the most high

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Speaker 1: end talent group in the league, but could we argue

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Speaker 1: the deepest like I don't know if anyone else goes

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Speaker 1: four deep like the Jacksonville Jaguars. Do they have a

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Speaker 1: capable tight end? Of course in Brenton Strange there they

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Speaker 1: added a blocking tight end in the draft too, so

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Speaker 1: and even like Trevor Etn or Travis Etn losing him

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Speaker 1: in that backfield that hurts a little bit, but you

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Speaker 1: actually look at his efficiency stats last season they were

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Speaker 1: not good, so I think maybe even it's like an

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Speaker 1: addition by subtraction type of thing in that offense. As

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Speaker 1: long as you know ba shall two and the boys

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Speaker 1: can carry that that load in that backfield, I think

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Speaker 1: they'll be pretty good set up. The only question for

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Speaker 1: me is like Ken Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars navigate,

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Speaker 1: which will be a much tougher schedule than they faced

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Speaker 1: a year ago, That is the question mark. But twenty

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Speaker 1: four to one, especially with the date against the Cleveland

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Speaker 1: Browns there in Week one.

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Speaker 3: Not a bad play at all.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to the Offensive Player of the Year market,

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Speaker 1: where JSN another long shot that cashed in the awards

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Speaker 1: market a year ago, making the seventh straight season that

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Speaker 1: the award has been won by either a wide receiver

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Speaker 1: or a running back. Ericson he used to see in

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Speaker 1: the past that really this was a market that quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: could also win alongside that MVP. It's been a while though,

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Speaker 1: since we've seen that, and your twenty twenty six favorites

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Speaker 1: are certainly following the formula that is likely a running

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Speaker 1: back or a wide receiver, with Jamior Gibbs your favorite

324
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Speaker 1: eight to one, b Jon Robinson at plus nine fifty,

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Speaker 1: Jamar Chase twelve to one, Justin Jefferson plus three thirteen

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Speaker 1: twenty nine, same price for Pooka Nakua. They're eighteen to

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Speaker 1: one for Justin Jefferson, JSN nineteen to one, Christian McCaffrey

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Speaker 1: twenty to one, Jonathan Taylor twenty to one, Ceedee Lamb

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Speaker 1: twenty four to one, and James Cook at twenty five

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Speaker 1: to one. Ericson, who is your best overall bet for

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Speaker 1: this market.

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Speaker 2: For me, it's gonna be Jamar Chase. I feel like

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Speaker 2: I was very much on the Jamar Chase in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four to win this award. I was all over it.

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Speaker 2: I felt like he should have been the number one

336
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Speaker 2: picking fantasy and ended up being right. Unfortunately, we ran

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Speaker 2: into the second Barkley two thousand yard rushing So like,

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Speaker 2: that's what it takes for running backs to win this award. Essentially,

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Speaker 2: it's you got to leave the NFL rushing yards get

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Speaker 2: two thousand rushing yards most of the time. You look

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Speaker 2: at Derek Hemery when he won this award, he rushed

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Speaker 2: for two thousand yards. So I like to lean on

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Speaker 2: the receiver side here, and I just can't think that

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Speaker 2: we're gonna go hold Jamar Chase career and he's never

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Speaker 2: gonna win offensive player. That's fair, Yeah, right, He's just

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Speaker 2: too talented of a player. He's still in his prime. Again,

347
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Speaker 2: we talked about Joe Burrow, we talked about the Bengals overall,

348
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Speaker 2: a team that could win a lot of games. And

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Speaker 2: we know that Jamar Chase is his number one receiver,

350
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Speaker 2: so he's six to one for most receiving yards. He's

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Speaker 2: twelve to one for Offensive Player of the Year. But

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Speaker 2: when you look at conventional wisdom, if you leave the

353
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Speaker 2: NFL and receiving yards, you're a pretty good bet to

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Speaker 2: finish as the winner of this assuming that there isn't

355
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Speaker 2: a running back that also rushes for two thousand yards,

356
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Speaker 2: which unfortunately puts some of the receivers in a tough spot.

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna bet against that happening instead betting on

358
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Speaker 2: Jamar Chase to leave the NFL and receiving yards but

359
00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:10,440
Speaker 2: getting at better odds, so off if it's a Player

360
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Speaker 2: of the Year, for me, my best bet is going

361
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,720
Speaker 2: to be Jamar Chase. I think it's interesting too about

362
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Speaker 2: this one. This is also from Club Analytics. Of the

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00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:20,280
Speaker 2: seventeen skill position players to win the award since the

364
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,880
Speaker 2: year two thousand, all of them were twenty eight or younger,

365
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Speaker 2: so this is a young man's award, And unfortunately it

366
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Speaker 2: pains me because one of the other bets I really

367
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Speaker 2: liked was aj Brown to win this award at fifty

368
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Speaker 2: to one. He is twenty nine years old, So it

369
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Speaker 2: doesn't mean it's impossible. Twenty eight could just read more

370
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Speaker 2: of an arbitrary number, because that's just how old those

371
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Speaker 2: players were, But I did want to bring it to

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Speaker 2: the table and be like, yes, I do think AJ

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Speaker 2: Brown landing in this Patriots offense. I think it's the

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Speaker 2: perfect fit alongside Drake may He's twelfth all time in

375
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Speaker 2: receiving yards per game. So going back to Okay, if

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Speaker 2: you leave the NFL and receiving yards, this is a

377
00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,960
Speaker 2: good way for receivers to win this award twelfth all time.

378
00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,560
Speaker 2: I think he has an upgraded quarterback this season. We've

379
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Speaker 2: seen Josh McDaniels, Pepper, alpha receivers like Brandon Marshall, like

380
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:08,879
Speaker 2: DeVonta Adams in the past of AJ Brown flips with

381
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,840
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty targets. Man, he could very much

382
00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 2: well leave the NFL and receiving yards this season, so

383
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Speaker 2: I did want to give him a shout at fifty

384
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Speaker 2: to one as well. What are your thoughts on some

385
00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:20,520
Speaker 2: of these Offensive Player of the Year awards.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think when it comes to AJ Brown, you

387
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Speaker 1: don't go out and trade a first round pick, even

388
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Speaker 1: if it's in twenty twenty eight, if you're not planning

389
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Speaker 1: on using AJ Brown as your.

390
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Speaker 3: Alpha wide receiver like they have other guys there.

391
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Speaker 1: But Romeo Dobbs isn't someone that I'm certainly afraid of

392
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Speaker 1: stepping on the toes of AJ Brown. He came to

393
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Speaker 1: New England to put up big numbers that he wasn't

394
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Speaker 1: doing in Philadelphia. Drake May getting an alpha wide receiver

395
00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:46,600
Speaker 1: in his prime is certainly exciting as well. So definitely

396
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:48,719
Speaker 1: on on with you there, Like he's someone in fantasy.

397
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Speaker 1: I know we're trying to keep things more betting, but

398
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Speaker 1: I've been taking my shot at I have him inside

399
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Speaker 1: my top ten of my rankings.

400
00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:55,760
Speaker 3: I know you're on that as well.

401
00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,639
Speaker 1: And with Jamar Chase, like he is someone I've actually

402
00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:02,120
Speaker 1: been looking at, like those benchmark numbers to reach twelve

403
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,639
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty yards because he's so consistent or one

404
00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,399
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty plus receptions. He's average one hundred and

405
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:09,760
Speaker 1: twenty six receptions the past two seasons. He's never been

406
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Speaker 1: under a thousand yards in his career. So this is

407
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,639
Speaker 1: a player that so dang consistent it doesn't really matter

408
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,919
Speaker 1: who plays opposite of him. Like him and T Higgins

409
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,280
Speaker 1: have kind of found that one A one B groove,

410
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,040
Speaker 1: unlike where you have in Dallas with Ceedee Lamb and

411
00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:26,000
Speaker 1: George Pickens where they're kind of eating into each other's share,

412
00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:27,960
Speaker 1: where I don't think either of them can get to

413
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,200
Speaker 1: this plateau to win this award. But I like both

414
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 1: those numbers honestly that you threw out, and actually I

415
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,199
Speaker 1: might like your final bet here, your best overall value

416
00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:39,119
Speaker 1: in this market, maybe the best because he was certainly

417
00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 1: someone I was considering for my own card as well.

418
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Speaker 2: Rock Bowers eight to one to win this award. I think,

419
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 2: I think everybody watching this show, we got to do

420
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:49,840
Speaker 2: a sprinkle of rock powers to win this award. I

421
00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,280
Speaker 2: think that this is way too much fun to not

422
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,919
Speaker 2: bet on. Now a titand has never won this award

423
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,080
Speaker 2: that I could. I tried to see. I tried to

424
00:18:58,080 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 2: go back to see if ever win off It's a

425
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,400
Speaker 2: player the year that has not happened to my research.

426
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,159
Speaker 2: And it's odd because you think none of these Travis

427
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:10,600
Speaker 2: Kelcey years, none of this, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Goalez,

428
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 2: Tony Gonzalez, like no, like, none of these guys ever

429
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 2: sniffed this award. However, when you look at brock Bauers

430
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 2: and what he could be in this offense, what if

431
00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 2: he just has like the JSN season that we just

432
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,199
Speaker 2: saw in a Clinton Kubiak offense. But yeah, it's the

433
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 2: brock Bauers as the receiver in this particular in the

434
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 2: Kubiak offense. We know he's super talented from what he

435
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:35,120
Speaker 2: did when he was healthy as a rookie last year

436
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,320
Speaker 2: when he was healthy with Gino Smith. Look if he

437
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 2: gets average quarterback played with Mendoza, which I think to

438
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:41,880
Speaker 2: this point brockbar still hasn't had like an average quarterback

439
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:46,439
Speaker 2: play in his career, whichtween aid O'Connell Gino Smith disaster

440
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:47,600
Speaker 2: last year for the most part.

441
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:50,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I really.

442
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 2: Think that brock Bauers could be live for this bet.

443
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,000
Speaker 2: And I really think that you're getting it at longer

444
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 2: odds because he plays tight end. When we watched brock

445
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 2: Barers play, I mean he's he's really more of a

446
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 2: wide receiver than a tight end. So I think that

447
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 2: this is just too long. Again, anything can happen, but

448
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 2: the value that you can get from a player like

449
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 2: brock Bowers, I don't think that these odds are going

450
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 2: to stay this long. So if you were dabbling in

451
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,960
Speaker 2: the prediction market, brock Bowers I think is one to

452
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,560
Speaker 2: definitely wager some money. On because I think that these

453
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 2: odds are going to dramatically shift as we start to

454
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,120
Speaker 2: see his role evolve in this offense, especially when Mendoza

455
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 2: takes over as the starting quarterback. I think it's gonna

456
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 2: be the Brock Bowers show double digit targets every single week,

457
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,560
Speaker 2: and I think he's talent enough to really feast potentially

458
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 2: be a dark horse to see like either NFL reception

459
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,639
Speaker 2: receiving yards potentially if he gets enough volume, if he

460
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:40,640
Speaker 2: stays healthy. I think that the ceiling is just too

461
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 2: high for eighty to one.

462
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:45,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm here for I even saw Trey McBride floating

463
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:46,639
Speaker 1: out there at ninety to one. But I think the

464
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,160
Speaker 1: issue with McBride is you're on a team with Marvin

465
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:52,919
Speaker 1: Harrison Junior, Michael Wilson, and Jeremiah Love, which you know.

466
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,120
Speaker 1: Brock Bowers, on the other hand, like there's not much.

467
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm a Jack Besch guy. We've talked about

468
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,640
Speaker 1: that off camera before. I know, so there's some trade

469
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 1: talkers stands out there too, but you're not working with

470
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,919
Speaker 1: a whole lot in this receiving core right now that

471
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 1: I think is going to steal away targets from Brock Bowers,

472
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 1: you have to hope like he has to surpass Train

473
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 1: McBride this season and put up better numbers than him

474
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 1: to get out there and be in contention for this award.

475
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,159
Speaker 1: But how I like to play future markets, and it

476
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,159
Speaker 1: sounds like how you do too, is like I like

477
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 1: investing in building this portfolio and if a cash out

478
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 1: opportunity comes a foot here in a couple months, like

479
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 1: I'm willing to cash out if I don't see the

480
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,679
Speaker 1: end goal of potentially actually hitting this bet. So I

481
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,639
Speaker 1: think right there, brock Bowers eighty to one, shop that around.

482
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 1: I think that's a really fine number. We're going to

483
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 1: get into the Defensive Player of the Year odds as well.

484
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 3: But first, a quick reminder that the NFL futures are

485
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 3: not just about.

486
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,439
Speaker 1: Picking who you think we win. We just talked about it.

487
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 1: They're about finding the right number before the market moves.

488
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 1: And sharp AI from betting pros, they can help you

489
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:55,919
Speaker 1: evaluate betting angles, compare markets to who we think is

490
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 1: going to be the best value to actually who is

491
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 1: that best value on your card. So before you place

492
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: any bets on the future market, use sharp ai to

493
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 1: help you make a smarter bet. Go to bankpros dot Com,

494
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: slash sharp or download the free betk pros app today

495
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 1: and try sharp AI. Let's go ahead and get into

496
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 1: the Defensive Player of the Year award market.

497
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 3: Miles Garrett.

498
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,400
Speaker 1: He earned his second Defensive Player of the Year trophy

499
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 1: last season after being plus seven to fifty open.

500
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 3: He became the fourth.

501
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: Pass rusher in the last five years to take home

502
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 1: that honor. He's your favored again, going off anywhere from

503
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 1: plus three thirty five to plus four fifty, so the

504
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 1: books certainly like him making that move to Los Angeles,

505
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 1: Will Anderson Junior eight to one, eight in Hutchinson twelve

506
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 1: to one, plus fifteen to sixty seven for Nick Bonito

507
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 1: of the Denver Broncos. There Max Crosby comes in at

508
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,719
Speaker 1: twenty to one, some discrepancy across books on La crosse,

509
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,919
Speaker 1: and then Daniel Hunter here at twenty five to one,

510
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 1: Nick Bosa twenty seven to one, Jared First twenty seven

511
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 1: to one, TJ. Watt twenty seven to one. So honestly, Erickson,

512
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: this is one of those markets I was actually eyes

513
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 1: to see, like Max Crosby out at twenty to one,

514
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 1: where he's closer to eight to one of some books,

515
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:06,680
Speaker 1: and same thing with TJ.

516
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 3: Watt.

517
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 1: I just never thought i'd see him out at twenty

518
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 1: seven to one. So I think there's good value down

519
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 1: the board. But is this really anyone's ballgame outside of

520
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: Miles Garrett.

521
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 2: It's gonna be tough. I think it's gonna cause it's

522
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 2: gonna require an injury to Miles Garrett for him not

523
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 2: to win this forward because the table is so set

524
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,400
Speaker 2: perfectly for him to just smash and repeat. And we've

525
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 2: seen this before. We've seen guys repeat as defensive Player

526
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 2: of the Year that's not Aaron Donalds. Particularly Donald Watt

527
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 2: has done it as well. So I think that the

528
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 2: voters in particular, they already love Miles Garrett. Miles Garrett

529
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 2: just broke the sack record on a team with a

530
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 2: bad record, a team with a losing record. That doesn't

531
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 2: ever happen. And now you're in a situation where Miles Garrett, Now,

532
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 2: for just comparison's sake, let's say he's in you know,

533
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 2: the quote unquote Jared Verse role. He gets to take

534
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 2: on the pressures that Jared Versus has been generating the

535
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 2: last two years. Jared Versus been top five pressures over

536
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 2: the last two seasons. But has this not been a

537
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 2: guy that has finished with a lot of sacks? Right,

538
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett's gonna fish with sacks like we like, we

539
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 2: know that he's gonna have more sacks than a standard

540
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 2: pass rusher would usually do, just based on the amount

541
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 2: of pressures that they generate, gonna be playing in positive

542
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 2: game scripts. How often was he playing a positive game

543
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 2: script with the Cleveland Browns. So I think that he

544
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,439
Speaker 2: is just such a strong favorite where I don't mind.

545
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 2: I just I think it's a good price. I think

546
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 2: it should be shorter, to be totally honest, like plus

547
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 2: four fifty. I think the odds should be shorter. I

548
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 2: think he should be more of a heavy favorite, just

549
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 2: based on the circumstances. He has upgraded situation with the

550
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 2: Los Angeles Rams again, a team that's gonna be playing

551
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 2: in a ton of primetime games. People are gonna be

552
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 2: watching a ton of Miles Garrett. When I was watching

553
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 2: the Browns and Patriots last year, that was when I

554
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 2: really got to appreciate Miles Garrett that just a little

555
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,199
Speaker 2: bit more because it was going into my team. I

556
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 2: was like, oh my god, this guy is a one

557
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 2: man wrecking machine, and I just think that people are

558
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 2: gonna be so nail again. Ales Garret is already one

559
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 2: of the best player in defense last year, best player

560
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 2: in defense probably over the last twenty years. Just overall,

561
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 2: people are going to be enamored with him, and he's

562
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 2: going to be a tough guy to supplant from this

563
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,639
Speaker 2: spot as the favorite of defensive player they're in the

564
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 2: guy that I think is probably going to repeat again

565
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 2: unless there is some type of injury, which is always possible,

566
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 2: which is why I'm not sure if you have any

567
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 2: one down the list where you're like, maybe I'll take

568
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 2: a shot. I know I have one player in particular,

569
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: but any of the thoughts on Garrett.

570
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 3: For you, Yeah, I mean this is a squad ride

571
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 3: for me. Absolutely.

572
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 1: My play with a lot of these futures is we're

573
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 1: gonna get to these dog days of summer.

574
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 3: Right now.

575
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 1: We're kind of in a weird spot where we do

576
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 1: have World Cup action, NBA, NHL just finish off their season.

577
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 1: But these sportsbooks, including hard Rock bet, they're gonna want

578
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 1: you to get invested in this market and they're gonna

579
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 1: offer boost as we get close to the season as

580
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 1: there's not much live sporting events going on over the summer,

581
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna wait for that and see, hey, can

582
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 1: I grab this at seven to one? Can I grab

583
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 1: this at six to one? Anything a little bit longer?

584
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,239
Speaker 1: But I'm fine with it at plus four fifty right

585
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,199
Speaker 1: now as well, because you look to those numbers you

586
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 1: were talking about in the game script difference. Teams threw

587
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: the ball against the Cleveland Browns last season fifty point

588
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 1: six percent of the time. Last year, how much do

589
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 1: they throw it against the Rams fifty nine point two

590
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 1: percent of the time. That's a pretty big difference. Man,

591
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 1: that's almost a ten percent jump there. That means more opportunities.

592
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 1: I think he is a better supporting cast of edge

593
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 1: rushers around Brain Fisk no slouch as well. Byron Young

594
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 1: has become a really good young player. You know, I

595
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 1: really like the interior of the Browns defensive line. But

596
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 1: how many times do we say on our NFL mock

597
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 1: draft shows like the Browns need to add another edge

598
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: rusher outside of Miles Garrett, cause that's kind of all

599
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: they have right there. So Miles Garrett, I think he really,

600
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: you know, deserves to be the betting favorite. I will

601
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 1: definitely have at least a unit, maybe a unit and

602
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: a half on this as well. Like I said, I

603
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: don't hate sprinkles on TJ. Watt if you want a

604
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: twenty seven to one number, if you want to shot

605
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 1: on Max Crosby at twenty to one. However, the big

606
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 1: thing with them to Erickson, they had tend to get

607
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 1: hurt a little bit more than Miles Garrett. This guy's

608
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,120
Speaker 1: kind of iron man all of a sudden.

609
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 2: I think too, who the injury card also works in

610
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 2: Garrett's favor if Stafford is to get banged up, Right,

611
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 2: if the Rams are winning games because of their defense,

612
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 2: you know why they're winning games to their defense because

613
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 2: of mister Miles Garretty, probably not Ty Simpson. So I

614
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 2: just to your point, like, really, if you don't want

615
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 2: to take any of these long shots on defensive player

616
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 2: of the Year, I think the best bet really is

617
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,640
Speaker 2: just slocking Miles Garrett. I think the number is good now.

618
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 2: You can bet it in season, you can bet it

619
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 2: before the season. I don't think that this bet is

620
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 2: going to be dead at any point until we really

621
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 2: get down to because the pedigree with Miles Garrett is

622
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 2: just so high, just such highly regarded by the voters.

623
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 2: I think that he's gonna be live for this award,

624
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 2: even if he has fewer sacks. He probably will if

625
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 2: you were sacks and he had last and he broke

626
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 2: the sack ricker. But maybe he breaks his own record

627
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 2: again here in twenty twenty six. That being said, I

628
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 2: do have a couple of sprinkles, I would say of

629
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 2: the favorites, but one that like the most that maybe

630
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 2: could challenge Miles Garrett even if he does have a

631
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 2: fantastic year. I think that this could be a career year,

632
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 2: just for Aid Hutchinson. I think was twenty five years old. He remember,

633
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 2: he's not coming off an injury this year like he

634
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: was a year ago when he was returning from a

635
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 2: season ending injury. That year before he got hurt, he

636
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 2: was my Defensive Player of the Year that I was

637
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 2: riding hard. I was like, this is the year he's

638
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 2: going to break out, and he was on pace to

639
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 2: win the award. Unfortunately went down with the injury, and

640
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 2: I was just me and everyone in the betting bras discord.

641
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 2: We were absolutely devastated because we were like, dude, this

642
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 2: is such a lock. We were so good to go.

643
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 2: So I do like hutch to bounce back here. Trey

644
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 2: Hendrickson I think is interesting again. Twenty twenty three, twenty

645
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 2: twenty four, seventeen and a half plus sacks. Both those

646
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 2: kind of like a weird year with the Bengals. Last

647
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 2: year he wasn't really invested in playing new team with

648
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 2: the Baltimore Ravens, new defensive coordinator, head coach Jesse Minter

649
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 2: coming in, you could see Trey Hendrickson having a double

650
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 2: digit sack maybe flirting with eighteen nineteen sacks, because ultimately

651
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 2: that's kind of how we're playing this for our conversation,

652
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 2: it's you got to have a sack rush production, like

653
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 2: that's what you need to win this award. Micha A.

654
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 2: Parsons is interesting again to make the Jamar Chase comparison.

655
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 2: Is he never gonna win the Defensive Player Year of

656
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 2: the Award. The injury is what causes me to want

657
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 2: to wait on him potentially. But if you drop him

658
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 2: back and if the Packers defense looks like crap without him,

659
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 2: they drop him back in and he is ninety ninety

660
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 2: five percent of who he is. Okay, maybe Michael Parson

661
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 2: can make a late run at this, but ultimately my

662
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 2: favorite long shot at sixty to one is josh heinz Allen,

663
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 2: the pass rusher for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last year, he

664
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 2: was third in pressures per game, but he only had

665
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 2: ten sacks, second in total pressures. Sixty to one, he

666
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 2: has a seventeen and a half sax season on his resume.

667
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 2: So josh heinz Allen has done and shown that, hey,

668
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 2: I can put a big sack totals. I think that

669
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 2: he is interesting and worth a sprinkle. He was another

670
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 2: player that I liked a couple of years ago when

671
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 2: he had the seventeen and a half sax season. At

672
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 2: the time, it wasn't enough to overcome the name rans

673
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 2: of TJ Watt, Miles Garrett. But if the Jacksonville Jaguars

674
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 2: can do and launch Trevor Warrant to do an MVP conversation,

675
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 2: people are talking about the Jags as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

676
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 2: I think josh heines Allen's gonna be big part of

677
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 2: that defense. So at sixty to one, with a player

678
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 2: that I think could maybe leave the NFL in sacks

679
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 2: next year, I like him as a sprinkles a long shot.

680
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 1: Such an underrated player so much that he had to

681
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 1: change his name, just that he.

682
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 2: Was like, I don't want to be the other Josh

683
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 2: Allen anymore.

684
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 3: So I respect that.

685
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: And going back to Miles Garrett and just kind of

686
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 1: put a bow on that too. Ericson, like, I think

687
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: there are ways to get that number up, whether it's

688
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: a boost or also like parlaying it right, because there

689
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 1: are some pretty juicy numbers out there, Like I don't

690
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 1: know who's betting NASCAR this weekend, but we have the

691
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: Naval based race out in San Diego. SVG's like minus

692
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 1: money to win that race if you want to put

693
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: him with Miles Garrett. I don't know if he saw

694
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 1: the guy on X over the weekend, Ericson who he

695
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: placed a bet in twenty twenty two. It was an

696
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 1: NBA player prop and he parlayed it with I believe

697
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 1: it was Columbia to win the World Cup this year.

698
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: So it's like a four long, four year long future

699
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 1: this guy was holding. All of a sudden, he's got

700
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 1: like a two hundred and fifty to one ticket on

701
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 1: Columbia to win the World Cup.

702
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 3: So I don't know if you want to go that

703
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 3: crazy and have an.

704
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 1: Investment for four years, but certainly some opportunity with the

705
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: World Cup, with NASCAR still going on, with some of

706
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 1: these other one off sporting events. UFC is still having

707
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 1: a couple of big fights left this summer to get

708
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 1: invested with. But just some fun ways I want to

709
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: throw out there for Miles Garrett fans to get invested there.

710
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 3: Love it, love it.

711
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: So let's go ahead and let's move into the Offensive

712
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year category. Tetro McMillan opened at ten

713
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: or eleven to one last year, depending where you got,

714
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: he won that award, making it the six straight year

715
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 1: a wide receiver or a quarterback has taken home the hardware.

716
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 1: The betting favorites this year look like this. Jeremiah Love

717
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 1: plus three seventy five, Fernando Mendoza plus four to fifty,

718
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: will see if he gets the Week one start over,

719
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins, Carnell Tate plus six fifty, Jordan Tyson plus

720
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 1: six fifty, j Darien Price eight to one, mkayle Lemon

721
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: twelve to one, Casey Concepts You On at thirty to one,

722
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 1: and then Carson Beck also at thirty to one, along

723
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 1: with Kenyan Sadik and Antonio Williams at thirty five to one.

724
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: So that said ericson, who are your picks this year?

725
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 1: Your best overall bet, let's start there, and maybe your

726
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: best overall value as well.

727
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 2: In this market, I think that my favorite bet, my

728
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 2: favorite value, is just Fernando Mendoza. I am not buying

729
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 2: this Kirk Cousins. He's going to be the starter for term.

730
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 2: I think that there's a chance that he opens the

731
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 2: season as the starter, but then he turns into Kirk

732
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 2: Cousins and he's not very good because I don't think

733
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 2: that I think his armor shot at this point, coming

734
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 2: off the Achilles injury. I don't think he has even

735
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 2: more losty on his throes, and I think he's gonna

736
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 2: be hurting the Raiders offense more than helping it. So

737
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be sooner rather than later

738
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 2: that we see Fernando Mendoza, and I think he has

739
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: a chance to really thrive in this Clint Kubiak offense.

740
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 2: And to the point of winning this award, you don't

741
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 2: necessarily have to be a The bar to passes a

742
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 2: quarterback is not significantly high. You just can be an

743
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 2: okay quarterback and whin this you look at the last

744
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 2: four quarterback will give the year award winners just An Herber, Kyler, Murray,

745
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 2: cej Stroud, Jane Daniels. They combined for a thirty two

746
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 2: to thirty to one record fifty one percent. So I

747
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 2: don't need for Nando Mendoza to go out and make

748
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 2: the Raiders a super Bowl contender, ah even make the playoffs.

749
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 2: He just has to make the Raiders look like a

750
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 2: competent offense, which I think he's going to be more

751
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 2: than capable of doing, especially when we see them incompetent

752
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 2: with Kirk Cousins, who posted his second worst yards per

753
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 2: attempt second works passer rating of his career last year

754
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 2: with a very low average s depth of target. Because

755
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 2: I don't think he has any more zip on these throws,

756
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 2: I think Mendoza should be the favorite. I think it's

757
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 2: kind of bonkers that Jeremiah Love on a team that

758
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 2: we were talking about going owen seventeen on the tail

759
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 2: this season as a running back. How is he going

760
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 2: to overcome that on the Arizona Cardinals. So I think

761
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 2: that Mendoza the line is like this because there's concerns

762
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 2: about Kirk Cousins starting well once kirk Cousin's no longer starting,

763
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 2: I think the odds are going to dramatically shift and

764
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 2: Mendoza's going to be even that more of a favorite.

765
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 2: He could the season six weeks really strong, and he

766
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 2: could win this award. We saw Tyler Shuck have a

767
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 2: push for this award last year and he didn't even

768
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 2: play the first half of the season. So to me,

769
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 2: this is get in on some preseason, get onto it

770
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 2: early when kirk Cousins is announced as the Week one starter,

771
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 2: and the oded shift, because ultimately it's going to be

772
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,399
Speaker 2: based on not how many games Mendoza plays, but how

773
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 2: well he does play when he does get in there,

774
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 2: because eventually he's going to play. I don't think there's

775
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 2: any scenario where he should the entire ye, So even

776
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 2: if it is a half game sample, I do think

777
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,320
Speaker 2: it's going to be more. I think he's going to

778
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 2: shroud enough to rise above it and win this award,

779
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 2: especially with the field being Jeremiah Love. Okay, I just

780
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:43,879
Speaker 2: kind of talked about how this doesn't work for him

781
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:48,320
Speaker 2: and then the two other receivers, Tate and Tyson. Tyson

782
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 2: might not be the number one target on his team

783
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 2: and Traditionally the receivers when they've won this award, they

784
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 2: lead their team in targets and receiving yards. So I

785
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,240
Speaker 2: do think Tate is the next best bet at seven

786
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 2: to one. Kind of for now, it's Fanana Mendoza with

787
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:03,360
Speaker 2: me with a bullet.

788
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 1: Okay, super interesting there, because like you are certainly predicting

789
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 1: then if you're going in at this four to one

790
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:11,879
Speaker 1: price tag that he will be the starter by week one,

791
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 1: and this drops maybe.

792
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 3: Closer to plus two to fifty.

793
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 1: But if he isn't the starter by week one, maybe

794
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 1: we're getting this closer to five or six to one.

795
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 1: So you're certainly going to have to pick a direction

796
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 1: of how you think this quarterback competition in Vegas, the

797
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:26,920
Speaker 1: sin Citias is going to shake out. But you're obviously

798
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 1: pretty confident that hey might even be Mendoza from the starter.

799
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:33,399
Speaker 3: If it is isn't, that number might not change much.

800
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:35,399
Speaker 1: So, Andrew, I want to throw out a couple fun

801
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: ones to you, because I really thought this was a

802
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 1: fun market to kind of explore and get invested with.

803
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 3: First one, Casey Conceptsy on thirty to one.

804
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 1: This is just a very versatile player man, like he

805
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: reminds me, My comp was always like a little bit

806
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 1: Zay Flower esque. And as a rookie in Todd Monkins offense,

807
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 1: what did Zay Flower do? One hundred and eight targets,

808
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 1: seventy seven receptions, eight hundred and fifty eight yards, five touchdowns.

809
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 1: And keep in mind, like Conceptsy on ACC Freshman of

810
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 1: the Year when he was with NC State, so we

811
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,399
Speaker 1: know he can adjust well to higher level competition when

812
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 1: he went and made the move from high school to

813
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 1: college and then also he made the jump from ACC

814
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:11,360
Speaker 1: ball to SEC.

815
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 3: In his junior year. Goes down there in Texas A

816
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 3: and M.

817
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,320
Speaker 1: What's he do finishes with the lead in the conference

818
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 1: in receiving touchdowns, also second in punt return touchdowns with two.

819
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,760
Speaker 1: So obviously this is a gamble in that Browns quarterback

820
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 1: situation a little bit. We have to make sure that's

821
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 1: not gonna be absolute trash. But I personally do believe

822
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 1: in Shador Sanders enough that I think he can make

823
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 1: Conceptsy on at least in contention for this award. I

824
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:35,839
Speaker 1: just need him to beat out Deshaun Watson early. That's

825
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 1: kind of what my hope is there. I know you're

826
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,799
Speaker 1: also someone who kind of likes conceptsy On from a

827
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: fantasy standpoint, so any interest in him here at thirty.

828
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 2: To one, I think the odds suggest it's worth dabbling

829
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 2: in a little bit because if he is the receiving leader,

830
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 2: target leader, well that's one of the boxes we're looking

831
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 2: to get checked for these rookie receivers to win this award,

832
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 2: So it's not a stretch to think that conception and

833
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 2: could leave this team receiving categories. I think we've all

834
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 2: kind of seen enough of Jerry Judy at this point.

835
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 2: I know Denzel Boston has been busy during OTA's but

836
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 2: I think with concept she On, if he is the

837
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 2: Zay Flowers of his offense, he should be the leader

838
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 2: in targets and receiving arts as a matter of what

839
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 2: that turns into when it's targets coming from Shdry Sanders

840
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 2: and Cleveland Browns offense, although maybe it works in their

841
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 2: favor if the defense isn't as good because they don't

842
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 2: have Miles Garrett. We'll see what the drop off is

843
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 2: from Garrett to Jared Versu, who's obviously a very dynamic

844
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:29,959
Speaker 2: player and great player in his own right, obviously younger

845
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 2: than Miles Garrett. As well, that could help create more

846
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:34,760
Speaker 2: game scripts where it's a lot of volume for concept

847
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 2: she on, So I do think that is worth a sprinkle.

848
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 2: I do want to note one thing though, when it

849
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 2: comes to this award, they almost always go to players

850
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 2: that are selected inside the top ten. Eight wins have

851
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 2: been drafted wow top ten picks, so the odds matchless

852
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 2: because the four favorites it's Mendoza, Love Tate Tyson, those

853
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 2: guys were all drafted inside the top ten. So it's

854
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 2: obviously a long shot, but that's why get at thirty

855
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:00,919
Speaker 2: to one.

856
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, And speaking of some long shots, I have two

857
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 1: more for this particular market, and this is specifically for

858
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 1: a cash out opportunity. I got Elijah Surat right now

859
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 1: at a prediction market plus ninety two to forty five,

860
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: so over ninety two to one. He's down at sixty

861
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 1: to one at some books, So I love grabbing some

862
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 1: early line value here at that number. And this play

863
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 1: reminds me like a lot of a Mecha Abuca from

864
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 1: a year ago Sarat to me. I know he doesn't

865
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,799
Speaker 1: have good draft capital all Day three pick, but he

866
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,280
Speaker 1: arguably I think is one of the most pro ready

867
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 1: wide receivers in this class, I think he has the

868
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 1: capability to put up good numbers because he's playing with

869
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 1: a pretty good quarterback in Lamar Jackson, and Sarat led

870
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 1: the country in receiving touchdowns last season and that was

871
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 1: while being banged up for the middle portion of that too.

872
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 1: And he's also a great run blocker, so I think

873
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 1: he's gonna get on the field early and often enough

874
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,919
Speaker 1: to make some scoring plays that I think this number

875
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:54,839
Speaker 1: will eventually move and we have a nice cash out

876
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 1: waiting for us. And also while we're at at same

877
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 1: price over ninety two to one here, Eli Stowers similar

878
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 1: thinking here that I think for a guy who's been

879
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 1: listed down as low as forty to one as some books,

880
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:08,400
Speaker 1: to get ninety two to one on some prediction markets

881
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,720
Speaker 1: feel really really good for a guy who won the

882
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five John Mackie Award also set positional records

883
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 1: for both the vert and the broad jump player. Are

884
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 1: you telling me Nick Sirianni is gonna be happy to

885
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 1: have this guy in his offense and start deploying him

886
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:23,799
Speaker 1: in different ways. He took a big step up in

887
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 1: competition from twenty three to twenty four. He moved from

888
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 1: Conference Usa all the way to the SEC and would

889
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 1: still go on to finish seventh in the conference as

890
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: a senior. In receptions with sixty two, we talked about

891
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 1: AJ Brown going to the Patriots. Well what does that

892
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:37,760
Speaker 1: mean for the Eagles?

893
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 3: Now? With him gone?

894
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 1: We have new offensive coordinator Sean Manion. And I know

895
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 1: a lot of people aren't really excited about another OC

896
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 1: in Philly, but this is the guy who loves twelve

897
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: man personnel.

898
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:47,959
Speaker 3: He loves play action.

899
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,439
Speaker 1: So I know Stowers can't block worth a lick right now,

900
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:53,440
Speaker 1: but I'm not worried about that because they're gonna have

901
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: Dallas Goddter in line to free up Stowers to play

902
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 1: a little more than the slot, to play outside a bit.

903
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 1: And Stowers is someone I think that you can do

904
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 1: a bit more in this offense than someone like Davonta

905
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,839
Speaker 1: Smith and McKay lemon. So for me, I just think

906
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 1: he will be harder to get and keep off the

907
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 1: field as that year progresses. So again, similar Surat, I

908
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:14,439
Speaker 1: don't think they win this award, but I think it's

909
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 1: too long of a number that it should move, and

910
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 1: I think it's going to present a cash out opportunity

911
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: with again, if you're over on those prediction markets, you

912
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 1: can actually set like an automatic cash out where if

913
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 1: this value gets this high, it cashes me out automatically.

914
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 1: So that's kind of the play here, just hoping to

915
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 1: get maybe a unit or two back of profit here

916
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 1: with Sarat and Eli Stowers.

917
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 3: I like it all right, here we go. Let's go

918
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:41,800
Speaker 3: ahead and keep the show moving.

919
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:44,520
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920
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,120
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921
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:48,640
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Speaker 1: Ericson's been a fun tourney over there, swinging a pretty

964
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 1: hot bat in soccer right now giving out some daily

965
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:54,920
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966
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,319
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967
00:42:57,360 --> 00:43:00,520
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968
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 1: And let's go back to the defensive side of the ball.

969
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: Here for the defensive Rookie of the Year market Carson

970
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: Carson Schweestionner, a guy for the Cleveland Browns, last year

971
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 1: coming out of UCLA. I don't think any of us

972
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 1: thought would take home this award twenty eight to one,

973
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:15,240
Speaker 1: So another long shot Rickson.

974
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:17,399
Speaker 3: We're seeing a trend here for twenty twenty five.

975
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 1: He was also the first off ball linebacker to win

976
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:23,760
Speaker 1: the award since Luke Keigley did it in twenty twelve.

977
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 1: I'm not really counting when we saw Michael Parsons coming

978
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:28,439
Speaker 1: in the league and he was kind of playing off

979
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,399
Speaker 1: ball and edge a little bit. But the books must

980
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:34,360
Speaker 1: be thinking that was an outlier because the current listing

981
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 1: for the odds you shop around Ruben Bain plus three

982
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 1: thirty five, David Bailey plus five twenty five plus seven

983
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: fifty for Rvel Reaes, eight to one for Sony Styles,

984
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 1: Caleb Downs plus eight fifty, man Sword de Laine at

985
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 1: nine to one, and Keim Messidor fifteen to one. Dylan

986
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 1: Thanneman here at twenty to one, Jacob Rodriguez twenty two

987
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 1: to one, and C. J. Allen also twenty two to one.

988
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson. Where are you going here in the defense

989
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year odds.

990
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, this one was the one of the toughest ones

991
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 2: I think on the board from the awards because there's

992
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 2: a lot of talent coming in from this defensive class,

993
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 2: right we were talking about all drafts season, top of

994
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:15,320
Speaker 2: the board. All these guys from Ohio State all super talented.

995
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:17,440
Speaker 2: So that's kind of where I'm going towards, especially when

996
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 2: you're considering the odds. So I like Sunny Styles the

997
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 2: most here plus eight hundred plus eight to fifty a

998
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 2: couple different spots, So I get that this award usually

999
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 2: goes to pass rushers, just like the Defensive Player of

1000
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:31,840
Speaker 2: the Year award. Sunny Styles I think can't offer that

1001
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 2: a little bit. I think that what he showed at

1002
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 2: the NFL Combine, he can do it all right. He

1003
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: is a do it all linebacker in the best sense

1004
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 2: of the term. I think he can rush the passer.

1005
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 2: I think that he can win and coverage, and he

1006
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 2: can obviously rack up tackles. So when you look at

1007
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 2: the Commander's defense that is completely devoid of talent, has

1008
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 2: been very, very bad the last couple of seasons, if

1009
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 2: he immediately gets dropped into there and helps this defense

1010
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,920
Speaker 2: improve to just average, I think you can get a

1011
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:01,399
Speaker 2: lot of the credit for their turnaround. So that's kind

1012
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 2: of how I'm viewing the situation. I think that he

1013
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 2: fits perfectly into dan quinn defense. I think it really

1014
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 2: works well that the new JISA defensive coordator, Deronte Jones,

1015
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 2: He's coming over from spending time in Minnesota. Where what

1016
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:17,280
Speaker 2: do they love doing in Minnesota? These hybrid blitz looks where? Okay,

1017
00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 2: I think Sonny Styles, even if he is deployed as

1018
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 2: an off the ball linebacker, I think he's gonna have

1019
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 2: opportunities to get after the quarterback in certain blitz packages.

1020
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 2: So I think he will have a chance to maybe

1021
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 2: get some interceptions here and there, maybe get a sack

1022
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 2: or two, a force fumble here or there, create turnovers,

1023
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 2: and really get into the voters' minds of oh yeah,

1024
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 2: Sonny Styles is the reason why the Commander's defense isn't

1025
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:39,320
Speaker 2: terrible this season.

1026
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 3: Yea.

1027
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:42,479
Speaker 2: He has been a big impactful player as a top

1028
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 2: ten defensive drafted pick. So that's I think the reason

1029
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 2: why I'm kind of gravitating towards him a lot of

1030
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 2: Fred Warner komps. Adam Peters is obviously the GM of

1031
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 2: the Washington Commanders. He comes from the forty nine ers.

1032
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 2: They drafted Fred Warner, who obviously has had a lot

1033
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 2: of success at the NFL level as one of the

1034
00:45:56,880 --> 00:46:00,040
Speaker 2: best linebackers in the league. So I do think that

1035
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 2: when it comes to the favorites, Sunny Styles is the

1036
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,839
Speaker 2: guy that I gravitate. The gravitate towards the most.

1037
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 1: Okay, and let's go down the board a little bit

1038
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:10,839
Speaker 1: for your best overall value and got a little another

1039
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 1: squad ride for the.

1040
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 2: Fam Jacob Rodriguez, linebacker for the Miami Dolphins. So I

1041
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 2: tease this before behind the scenes with Seth about I

1042
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 2: had a couple of fun facts. You brought up Carson Swassinger, right, So, yes,

1043
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 2: he was now the fourth winner of this award to

1044
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 2: be drafted outside the first round. All those guys that

1045
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:32,760
Speaker 2: have won this award that were not first round picks

1046
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:35,720
Speaker 2: were all second round drafted linebackers.

1047
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 3: Oh wow, Okay, this.

1048
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 2: Is exactly the archetype that you're looking for when it's like,

1049
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 2: all right, if I'm not going to pick someone that

1050
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 2: was drafted in the first round, because this award more

1051
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,319
Speaker 2: often than like very very very high rate of going

1052
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,399
Speaker 2: in the first round picks. Obviously, it didn't happen last

1053
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 2: year with with Swessenger being you know, the first or

1054
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:56,320
Speaker 2: second pick. I don't remember. Of Day two, all of

1055
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 2: them are also picked inside the top forty. So there

1056
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:00,800
Speaker 2: has not been a defensive rookie of the drafted outside

1057
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:04,320
Speaker 2: the top forty overall picks since Eric McMillan of the

1058
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:07,880
Speaker 2: Jets in nineteen eighty eight. He was picked sixty three overall.

1059
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:12,240
Speaker 2: So unfortunately, Jacob Rodriguez was not drafted inside the top forty.

1060
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 2: He was drafted forty third overall. So maybe we're just

1061
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 2: kind of get again. These numbers can maybe be a

1062
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:21,040
Speaker 2: little bit arbitrary, So forty third forty, it's still pretty close.

1063
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:23,759
Speaker 2: I'm not sure why this was your angle, but for me,

1064
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 2: it's Dolphins are gonna be facing the most negative game

1065
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:30,280
Speaker 2: scripts yes, in terms of teams are gonna be running

1066
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 2: all over them. And the guy that Mike Clay currently

1067
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 2: has projected to leave the NFL and tackles Jordan Brooks,

1068
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 2: that guy might get traded. So if he's gone from

1069
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:43,399
Speaker 2: this team, Jacob Rodriguez think gets insert into that role

1070
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 2: where he can leave the NFL in tackles or from

1071
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 2: the time of him becoming the starter in the offense

1072
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 2: raps up just tackle after tackle. I think that's where

1073
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 2: you kind of come to oh near twenty two to

1074
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:55,280
Speaker 2: one odds for him to win, and he just basically

1075
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 2: follows the Swessenger path. I could see it happening.

1076
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,240
Speaker 1: Well, And that's exactly why I'm down here at twenty

1077
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 1: five to one as well with you, because, like j

1078
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:06,319
Speaker 1: Rod to me is two things.

1079
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 3: One.

1080
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 1: I think he's a really unique player, right. This is

1081
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:11,279
Speaker 1: the guy who began his collegiate career at quarterback, ends

1082
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 1: up converting to linebacker when he gets to Lubbock, and

1083
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 1: then goes on to post back to back seasons one

1084
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:19,320
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty seven plus combined tackles, ten and a

1085
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 1: half plus tackles for lost, didn't have a ton of

1086
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 1: sacks last year, but still was able to lead this

1087
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 1: team to a Big twelve championship in Texas. Tech therefore

1088
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 1: finished fifth in the Heisman voting seventeen first place votes.

1089
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 1: So obviously the media at the collegiate level loves him

1090
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 1: and like this dude won every hon and he could

1091
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 1: man consensus All American Big Twelve Defensive Player of the Year,

1092
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 1: Dick Buckkiss Award winner, Vince Lombardi Award winner, And I think,

1093
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 1: like you said it, Man Malik Willis. I think he's

1094
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 1: gonna struggle down there, right, Like he only has what

1095
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 1: Malik Washington, Chris Bell just kind of a couple guys

1096
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 1: out there, right, And like I think, Jeff.

1097
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 2: How would you dare forget Greg Dolsic?

1098
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 1: Okay, geez, if I was gonna forget any well, I

1099
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:04,280
Speaker 1: think it should have been Greg Dolsich. But like Jeff Halfley,

1100
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 1: you look what he did in Green Bay the last

1101
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 1: couple of years after you coming from Boston College as

1102
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 1: their head coach Kuai Walker, which kind of a I

1103
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 1: want to say, an underwhelming prospect after he was picked

1104
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:17,600
Speaker 1: pretty early by the Packers. He made him into a really,

1105
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 1: really good player. So I think Jay rod right now

1106
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,239
Speaker 1: firmly in the mix at twenty two to one. I

1107
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:24,799
Speaker 1: think it's the same type of situation. He's gonna rack

1108
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:27,960
Speaker 1: up stats again. Brooks going out of the building would

1109
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 1: certainly help this as well. But yeah, I love Jacob Rodriguez.

1110
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:33,640
Speaker 1: This is my favorite bet on the board for all

1111
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 1: the awards. We've talked about twenty five to one. Shop

1112
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 1: that around, but I think it's a great number on

1113
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 1: the kid right now.

1114
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:41,319
Speaker 2: The only other one I wanted to add in here

1115
00:49:41,520 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 2: is put in the show sheet, but it was one

1116
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 2: that I was like perusing as I'm looking at some

1117
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:48,240
Speaker 2: of these defensive players, a lot of edge rush talent

1118
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:50,279
Speaker 2: at the top. The one guy that I thought was

1119
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 2: kind of interesting, If this Dallas Cowboys defense can just

1120
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:59,000
Speaker 2: flip just fliphead in terms of yeah, it's gonna be

1121
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:02,319
Speaker 2: so much better, they go from bottom league defense to

1122
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,560
Speaker 2: one of the top defenses in the NFL. I think

1123
00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 2: last year we saw a little bit of a change

1124
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 2: with Quinton Williams. They had one of the highest pressu

1125
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 2: rates in the NFL last year, but they didn't generate

1126
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 2: a lot of sacks. What if Malachai Lawrence just comes

1127
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 2: in and just clean up right, Like, there are so

1128
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 2: many other guys on that defensive line that teams are

1129
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 2: accounting for, and Lawrence just comes in as a passers

1130
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:24,359
Speaker 2: specialist and just immediately drops fifteen sacks. Sixteen sacks. That

1131
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:26,720
Speaker 2: could be a scenario where he has a path twenty

1132
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 2: five to one. I like Dallas on paper a lot.

1133
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,360
Speaker 2: Their office should be looking, they should be playing with leads,

1134
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 2: and I think that gives a guy like Malachai Lawrence

1135
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:37,919
Speaker 2: some opportunities to generate sacks, which we know helps drive

1136
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 2: the winner of this award a lot of the time,

1137
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 2: So if it isn't one of these linebackers again, it

1138
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 2: usually goes to an edge rusher Malachai Lawrence at twenty

1139
00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 2: five to one as the Dallas Cowboys first round pick.

1140
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 2: Their other first round pick, I think would be pretty noteworthy.

1141
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate it at all. I was even

1142
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:54,960
Speaker 1: looking at Caleb Downs for kind of similar reasons. I

1143
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 1: think the Cowboys defense can improve mightily, and we know

1144
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:00,279
Speaker 1: they're going to be in primetime all the time. That's

1145
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:03,560
Speaker 1: really gonna help both Downs and Lawrence. The thing about

1146
00:51:03,600 --> 00:51:06,319
Speaker 1: Downs is like you look at the last couple of years,

1147
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 1: whether it was Captain Jack or whether it was and

1148
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:12,839
Speaker 1: any of these guys really on that defense rvel ries

1149
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 1: sony styles like Caleb Downs is the one they played through.

1150
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:18,880
Speaker 1: And the issue I guess though, just like from betting

1151
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 1: him for this award at plus eight fifty, is like

1152
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 1: safeties don't really win this award, right, This usually isn't

1153
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 1: a safety award, So I think it'd be really hard

1154
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 1: for Caleb Downs to potentially break through. But I do

1155
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:30,280
Speaker 1: think he is arguably still one of the best players

1156
00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:33,000
Speaker 1: in this draft. Class that the Dallas Cowboys gotten absolutely

1157
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:35,480
Speaker 1: steal at, which just breaks my heart because I've always

1158
00:51:35,520 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 1: loved Caleb Downs from this time at Alabama, leaves Alabama,

1159
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 1: then goes to Ohio State, so I can't really root

1160
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 1: for him there, and now he's with the Cowboys, and

1161
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:44,399
Speaker 1: I'm not like one of those old school Steelers fans

1162
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:46,879
Speaker 1: hating the Cowboys, but like I don't particularly root for them,

1163
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 1: So maybe that's one way I could root for him, though,

1164
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 1: is get in there at plus eight fifty.

1165
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:52,840
Speaker 3: But eric'son great stuff overall.

1166
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 1: Man, Let's go ahead and get out of here with

1167
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:56,640
Speaker 1: your best bets for the award markets. If you were

1168
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:59,520
Speaker 1: in an alternate universe and the aliens came down, they said, hey,

1169
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:06,040
Speaker 1: you and the entire world's life depends on three plays

1170
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:09,319
Speaker 1: hitting here in this market. What are those three best

1171
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:11,759
Speaker 1: bets for you? Andrew Erickson? Keep the aliens away.

1172
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 2: When you frame it like that, I'm actually gonna probably

1173
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:17,719
Speaker 2: make a quite change to the show Shook, because look,

1174
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:19,840
Speaker 2: we talked way too much about Miles Garrett in a

1175
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 2: positive light for me not to include him here. We're

1176
00:52:22,160 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 2: talking about aliens and freaks. Miles Garrett is number one

1177
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:28,360
Speaker 2: on the list, so Miles Garrett to repeat as defensive

1178
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 2: player here that I'll be my first bet for Nanda

1179
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 2: Mendoza to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. I think

1180
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 2: it's miss priced four to one. He was taking number

1181
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 2: one overall, number one overall picking the draft number one quarterback.

1182
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 2: It's a quarterback driven award more years than not. Don't

1183
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:47,280
Speaker 2: overthink it. Fade Kirk Cousins to oblivion, fade the Coles cash,

1184
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 2: give me use all your Coles cash on Mendoza to

1185
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 2: win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and then we'll round

1186
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:55,120
Speaker 2: it out with Justin Herbert to win MVP at eleven

1187
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:57,320
Speaker 2: to one, and then as a fourth one brock Powers

1188
00:52:57,719 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 2: eighty to one. But like that one's for fun again.

1189
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:03,120
Speaker 2: Can't put the life yeah Earth on the line at

1190
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 2: eighty to one, bet that would not be appropriate.

1191
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: But hey, hey, if you cash out, maybe that's like

1192
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,239
Speaker 1: enough form you get a positive cash out, maybe they'll

1193
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 1: go ahead and leave us.

1194
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:14,879
Speaker 3: Say hey, these guys know what they're talking about. They're

1195
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:16,320
Speaker 3: just singing a hot bat here in the future.

1196
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:18,160
Speaker 2: And I mean, when we're talking about freaks, I gotta

1197
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 2: show the aliens rock Bowers. You do you gotta see

1198
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 2: this guy. He's pretty good.

1199
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 1: Just keep a hat on him. Don't show them the hairline.

1200
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 1: That's all I ask is, don't show them. I think

1201
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,200
Speaker 1: soon enough, I don't know. Hopefully you and I don't

1202
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 1: reach these points. But one of my groomsmen in my wedding,

1203
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:37,359
Speaker 1: he's made the recent decision just to go bald and

1204
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 1: rock the beard, and it's a great look.

1205
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 3: Rock Bowers.

1206
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:43,120
Speaker 1: Get invested with that, my friend, because I certainly think

1207
00:53:43,160 --> 00:53:45,759
Speaker 1: that's where like, don't hang on until you can't hang

1208
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:46,360
Speaker 1: on anymore.

1209
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:47,319
Speaker 3: Man, don't do that.

1210
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 1: But Eric said, I'm gonna keep hanging on to you

1211
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:52,440
Speaker 1: because you have all the great betting insight here for us,

1212
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 1: and you're gonna have that all season long. Right here

1213
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 1: on the Bank Crows podcast, let us go down below

1214
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 1: your favorite NFL futures for the awards markets. We want

1215
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:01,799
Speaker 1: to hear from you in the comments, and please be

1216
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:04,200
Speaker 1: sure give this video a thumbs up if you enjoyed it. Also,

1217
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:07,120
Speaker 1: don't forget subscribed right here to the bank Pros YouTube channel,

1218
00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:09,319
Speaker 1: the audio feed and make sure you download the bank

1219
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 1: Pros app today for mister Andrew Erickson on set, Wilcock,

1220
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: thank you so much, for watching, take care of y'all,

1221
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:16,359
Speaker 1: Thanks for.

1222
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:18,080
Speaker 3: Listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

1223
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:20,680
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

1224
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

1225
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:26,720
Speaker 1: or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting

1226
00:54:26,760 --> 00:54:30,560
Speaker 1: Pros and Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to

1227
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:33,640
Speaker 1: our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.