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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Long ago

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Speaker 2: and far away, there wasn't the Internet, there wasn't Adobe pdf.

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Speaker 2: There was a guy pushing a trolley with paper research

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Speaker 2: and it was literally half a hockey goal high. Buried

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Speaker 2: in that on a given morning was twenty five or

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Speaker 2: thirty pages from a firm called C. J.

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Speaker 3: Lawrence.

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Speaker 2: And my recollection is it was within a green ink.

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Speaker 2: The titling was within a green ink. Yard.

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Speaker 4: Denny Quick takes is in the same CJ.

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Speaker 2: Lawrence Green and we are honored from the span of

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Speaker 2: those multiple decades. Edyard Denny joins us this morning. I

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Speaker 2: can't say enough about your Denny quick takes. It is

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Speaker 2: the read to give you confidence and push away your

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Speaker 2: fears of the stock market, ed Yard, Denny, what's there

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Speaker 2: to be afraid of right now in the stock market?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think evaluation is a bit of an issue.

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Speaker 5: I've been forecasting fifty four hundred for the S and

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Speaker 5: P five hundred by year end. My concern is we

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Speaker 5: might get there by midyear or earlier. I'm forecasting six

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Speaker 5: thousand for next year, and I'm concerned we might get

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Speaker 5: there by your end. So I'd like to have a nice,

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Speaker 5: leisurely bullen market here, not to something like we had

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Speaker 5: in the late nineteen nineties.

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Speaker 4: A guy at.

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Speaker 2: Yale where you got your parchment, I think his name

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Speaker 2: was Schiller, used to talk a lot about exuberance that

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Speaker 2: was out there. What is the character of our exuberance

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Speaker 2: within the Yardenni and Kampora bull market?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think we can look back to the nineteen

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Speaker 5: nineties as a possible model for the environment we're in.

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Speaker 5: If that's the case, then the next question is are

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Speaker 5: we in nineteen ninety nine or are we in.

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Speaker 3: Something somewhat earlier. I think at this point.

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Speaker 5: We're more like nineteen ninety six. Remember December fifth, nineteen

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Speaker 5: ninety six when Alan Greenspan had that famous speech in

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Speaker 5: which he did a hamlet on.

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Speaker 3: Us and he said, you know, how do we know if.

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Speaker 5: The market's irrationally exuberant? And I think we're at that

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Speaker 5: point now where everybody seems to be asking is it

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Speaker 5: rational exuberance or irrational exuberance?

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Speaker 1: So ed, when you look at the elements within the market,

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Speaker 1: what looks most rational, what looks most irrational?

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Speaker 5: Well, the evaluation multiple on anything related to artificial intelligence

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Speaker 5: certainly is very high. The so called Magnificent seven there

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Speaker 5: are multiple has been very high, though they're becoming more

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Speaker 5: rational actually because some of the Magnificent seven are so

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Speaker 5: magnificent anymore. We've seen Apple underperform, We've seen Tesla underperformed.

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Speaker 3: So it's it's a healthy thing to see that the.

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Speaker 5: Market isn't just Willy Nearly going across the board and

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Speaker 5: marking up these mega, these mega stocks, these magnificent seven.

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Speaker 5: I think clearly outside of the stock market, Bitcoin has

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Speaker 5: had a heck of a move I think it's having

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Speaker 5: a heck of a move.

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Speaker 3: Down this morning.

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Speaker 5: But there's so many signs of speculative excesses, edge of Denny.

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Speaker 4: Is it edge of fossil?

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Speaker 2: Like me, do you believe that there's an underlying under bitcoin?

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Speaker 2: Is it an actual tangible and vestment.

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Speaker 5: Well, this will probably get a lot of people mad

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Speaker 5: at me, but I mean well, and that is I

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Speaker 5: view I.

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Speaker 3: View bitcoin as digital tulips.

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Speaker 5: In other words, it is kind of like what happened

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Speaker 5: in Holland with the bubble in tulips. But there's a

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Speaker 5: huge difference here which really presents the possibility of much

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Speaker 5: higher upside which we've already seen. And that is the

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Speaker 5: notion that it's a global market and it's open twenty

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Speaker 5: four by seven, and we're talking about tens of thousands,

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Speaker 5: hundreds of thousands, millions of people playing in the bitcoin marketplace.

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Speaker 3: So I have no idea how high I could go.

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Speaker 3: I have no idea how low it can go.

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Speaker 5: I'm an old fashioned guy like you are. I need earnings.

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Speaker 5: I need I need coupons. I need something I can value.

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Speaker 5: I need rents, something I can value, and I don't

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Speaker 5: have that with bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: You know, digital tulips that have a structure of a

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Speaker 1: investment tool underneath them, with all those ETFs, right and

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Speaker 1: also a digital tool, a digital tool up that is

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Speaker 1: going to also have what's the verb happening to? Have

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Speaker 1: you went to the fall?

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Speaker 2: H Charlotte Greifeld was on yesterday and we're talking polka

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Speaker 2: dot and doge and we're trying I'm trying to have

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Speaker 2: a serious conversation with miss Haverford about Polka dot and doge.

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Speaker 4: This is nuts.

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Speaker 1: This is nuts. Okay, So doctor ed, let me go

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Speaker 1: back to bitcoin because there are a lot of things,

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Speaker 1: a lot of market structures to support this digital coin

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Speaker 1: right now, when we see the happening in April, are

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Speaker 1: you going to do you anticipate any kind of correlation

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Speaker 1: with what we see in equities because a lot of

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Speaker 1: that bullish sentiment tied to bitcoin has spilled over into

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Speaker 1: equities or vice versa.

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Speaker 5: Well, I think you're right, and I think where Bitcoin's

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Speaker 5: and enthusiasm is spilled over its cooling into gold.

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Speaker 3: I mean, gold was.

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Speaker 5: Kind of sitting there doing nothing, and then all of

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Speaker 5: a sudden, maybe some of the bitcoin enthusiasts concluded that

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Speaker 5: they haven't own enough of it and it's too expensive

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Speaker 5: and they want to look for other areas to diversify.

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Speaker 3: So gold has been a winner.

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Speaker 5: The gold mining showers haven't done as well. But look,

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Speaker 5: I have to admit I've got some fomo every now

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Speaker 5: and then when I see this bitcoin going up to

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Speaker 5: seventy thousand, I knew about.

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Speaker 3: A dollar at ten dollars. I knew it about it

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Speaker 3: one hundred at one thousand. Why did I just buy

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Speaker 3: a couple?

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Speaker 2: And you have a huge response on YouTube this morning worldwide.

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Speaker 2: People are listening to Edward Yard Denny. I want to

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Speaker 2: go to the X axis, to thetter, whether it's just

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Speaker 2: a normal X axis or dare I say we.

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Speaker 3: Go log rhythmic.

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Speaker 2: You've had the courage to go out to SPX six thousand,

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Speaker 2: and I think you've put a twenty five handle on it.

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Speaker 2: Why can't add your Denny model out to twenty twenty six?

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Speaker 3: Oh, actually I have already.

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Speaker 5: I'm glad you asked me because just recently we were

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Speaker 5: talking about sixty five hundred in terms of earnings, the

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Speaker 5: underlying earnings last year we said two twenty five, and

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Speaker 5: there were a lot of people who are using one

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Speaker 5: to eighty for earnings per share for the S and

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Speaker 5: P five hundred, and we came awfully close two hundred

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Speaker 5: and twenty two dollars is what the S and P

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Speaker 5: five hundred earned last year. This year we also had

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Speaker 5: bullish outlook for earnings two fifty and then the year

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Speaker 5: after that. In other words, two two thousand and twenty five,

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Speaker 5: we're talking about two seventy and then three hundred dollars

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Speaker 5: a share for two twenty six, and we think that well,

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Speaker 5: accommoday sixty five hundred on the S and P five

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Speaker 5: hundred by twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: You asking thank you for this kind of well, you know,

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Speaker 2: I'm trying ed your Denny. Thank you so much for

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Speaker 2: this conversation, folks. Sarah Hunt with US chief market strategist

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Speaker 2: at Alpine Wood's Capital Investors. How how did we get

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Speaker 2: from Dow eight thousand or Dow six thousand for the

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Speaker 2: gloom crew to Dow forty thousand.

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Speaker 4: It's just the growth of the nation, right, It's the

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Speaker 4: growth of the nation.

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Speaker 6: It's the growth of the money supply. You had a

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Speaker 6: huge amount of money come into the system over the

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Speaker 6: last decade that started the financial crisis, and it just

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Speaker 6: went right up until COVID when it was supposed to

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Speaker 6: pull back, and then we flooded the system with more

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Speaker 6: liquidity post COVID. So a lot of this is money

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Speaker 6: looking for a home right so that you had no

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Speaker 6: fixed income for a.

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Speaker 4: While, So where were you going to put your money?

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Speaker 6: You're going to put in equities.

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Speaker 4: I'm going to.

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Speaker 2: Speak for Roger Ferguson, which is always hazardous because he's

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Speaker 2: a giant, he was a TIA, he's our number one

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Speaker 2: person in retirement.

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Speaker 4: I take immense umbrage.

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Speaker 2: With people criticizing the ute of America, like Scarlett Foo

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Speaker 2: saving for retirement, who said I'm going to buy stocks

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Speaker 2: and that's supposed to be a bad idea.

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Speaker 4: I just I don't agree with that. Stocks is how

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Speaker 4: you do this right.

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Speaker 6: Well, Stocks is where the liquidity went. A lot of

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Speaker 6: that liquidity went into stocks. A lot of it went

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Speaker 6: into real estate, and it went into real estate and

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Speaker 6: pushed real estate prices high enough to the point where

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Speaker 6: you couldn't necessarily afford to buy a house. Like people

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Speaker 6: talk about the affordability question all the time, it's not

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Speaker 6: just mortgage rates. It's the level of pricing and the

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Speaker 6: house and the level of pricing, and the housing market

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Speaker 6: right now is very high. It has not come down

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Speaker 6: commensurate with interest rates.

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Speaker 4: Going You just talked about that.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so absolutely, then why wouldn't I want to put

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Speaker 6: my money in an asset class that has done very

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Speaker 6: well historically speaking, and is also one of the few

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Speaker 6: places I can do it incrementally.

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Speaker 4: It's great.

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Speaker 2: Is if you take the twenty five foot Christmas tree

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Speaker 2: out of the den, the price of your house scir

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Speaker 2: that'll go up one hundred thousand dollars.

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Speaker 1: Well, I have to get that thing out first. So

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Speaker 1: we talk about moving into equities that's driven by liquidy

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, how much of that liquidity is

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Speaker 1: now going too bitcoin? And is that competition for equities?

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Speaker 6: I think it's just one more place where people can

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Speaker 6: one put their opinion on, you know, the global monetary

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Speaker 6: system and fiat money.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 6: People look at golden bitcoin in a similar way for

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Speaker 6: that reason, even though whether or not they actually act

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Speaker 6: that way is a different question, and some periods of

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Speaker 6: time they will and in some periods of time they won't.

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Speaker 6: But I think that you still don't have I mean,

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Speaker 6: fixed income is now a bigger competition for equity money

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Speaker 6: just because you have an interest rate where for nearly

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Speaker 6: a decade you did not. So I think that there

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Speaker 6: is that change is also is also there. But you've

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Speaker 6: got companies with enormous cash hoards that are looking to

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Speaker 6: put money to work in a variety of ways, and

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Speaker 6: some of the fixed income is going to get absorbed

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Speaker 6: by that. I mean, think about Apple's bounce sheet and

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Speaker 6: Vedia's bounce sheet, and we've talked about how enormous they

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Speaker 6: are relative to small economies of other nations. So there's

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Speaker 6: a lot of there is competition, but there's still a

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Speaker 6: lot of money in the system, and this is where

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Speaker 6: you're starting to see that wage hike situation going on,

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Speaker 6: like you just saw in Japan.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So money in the system. We're seeing that, certainly

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Speaker 1: with this past earning season, when the buzzword or the

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Speaker 1: theme really was free cash flow. Everyone was trumpeting their

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Speaker 1: free cash flow. Managers are getting paid based on free

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Speaker 1: cash flow. If you think about David Zaslov at Warner

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Speaker 1: Brothers Discovery, the use of cash, whether it's to plow

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Speaker 1: it into buyback programs or in some cases starting a

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Speaker 1: dividend for some of these growthy tech companies, how comfortable

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Speaker 1: are you with the use of cash and would you

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Speaker 1: want to see more of it diverted to dividends? Versus buybacks.

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Speaker 6: So we like capital allocation. That's giving back to shareholders

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Speaker 6: if you can afford it, right, So that's the big question.

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Speaker 6: They're trumpeting cash flow because if I can afford to

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Speaker 6: raise my dividend and or I can afford to buy

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Speaker 6: my stock back, that tells me something about the underlying business,

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Speaker 6: as opposed to I can only afford to pay a dividend,

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Speaker 6: and it's lucky I can pay that dividend. In some cases,

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Speaker 6: I have to borrow to pay that dividend. You don't

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Speaker 6: want to see that as an investor. It happens, but

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Speaker 6: that's not what we're looking for in general. But I

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Speaker 6: think that there is a trade off between those two things.

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Speaker 6: I would argue I like dividends more than I like buybacks,

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Speaker 6: but it does the same idea is that it's giving

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Speaker 6: capital back and or to the extent that it's shrinking

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Speaker 6: the share account making your metrics look better too.

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Speaker 4: How do you like dividends if I'm paying a tax

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Speaker 4: on it.

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Speaker 6: I don't like paying taxes on anything, but I still

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Speaker 6: have to pay. That's part of the zeitgeist. If it's

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Speaker 6: a buyback and my capital gains go up, then I've

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Speaker 6: got taxes on that side too. Taxes are going to

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Speaker 6: be part of Taxes are going to be part of

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Speaker 6: the equation about SPA slice it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, I want to talk about April twenty fifth,

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Speaker 2: and I just randomly picked it. I picked a big,

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Speaker 2: ugly company that's doing better than good. Microsoft announces earnings

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Speaker 2: basically a month from now.

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Speaker 4: Isn't the heart of the matter.

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Speaker 2: The stocks we've chosen to be in, we believe the

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Speaker 2: cash flows will be there.

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Speaker 4: Do you see.

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Speaker 2: Any risk of cash flows diminishing in the second in

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Speaker 2: the first quarter report or the second quarter report?

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Speaker 6: This is one of those areas that we keep talking about,

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Speaker 6: which is that the largest companies now are those companies

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Speaker 6: that have some very good base cash flows, and so

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Speaker 6: do I see it? Could there be volatility within a

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Speaker 6: quarter to quarter?

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Speaker 4: Yes?

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Speaker 6: Is there a long term issue with the cash flow

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Speaker 6: of something like Microsoft right now? I don't think so.

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Speaker 6: And I think that's one of the reasons that these

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Speaker 6: large dominant tech stocks are remaining large and dominant because

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Speaker 6: the cash is there. In the last run up that

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Speaker 6: we had major technology run up in the early two

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Speaker 6: thousand like that, the cash wasn't They're in a lot

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Speaker 6: of those companies the stock rises move, but they weren't

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Speaker 6: making any money. A lot of these companies are making

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Speaker 6: a lot of money right now, and I think that

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Speaker 6: that's one of the reasons that they end up remaining dominant.

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Speaker 1: Does a lot of recash low repel activist investors or

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Speaker 1: does it give them? Does it attract them in a

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Speaker 1: way where they're thinking, Oh, there's something there's something more here.

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Speaker 6: I think that it depends on what management's doing with

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Speaker 6: that cash, lil and whether or not they think they

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Speaker 6: can do a whole lot of a better job.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 6: So that's a question of what you're doing, and somebody

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Speaker 6: looking at that going I could take that cash and

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Speaker 6: do a whole bunch of other things with me.

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Speaker 2: A really interesting discussion here, inequities. What's your portfolio turnover rate?

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Speaker 2: How much are you moving in and out of stuff?

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Speaker 6: It is not that high. We tend to buy and

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Speaker 6: hold things for longer periods of time, right, So, I mean,

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Speaker 6: I probably could give you a number off the top

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Speaker 6: of my head, but it's going to be somewhere in

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Speaker 6: the thirty to fifty percent releases ofso hire Right.

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Speaker 3: Do you rebalance?

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Speaker 6: Yes, we rebalance, but we also don't want to cut

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Speaker 6: our winners off too early. So it's really a question

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Speaker 6: of if I'm looking to rebalance, why am I looking

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Speaker 6: to rebalance? Is it because everything else has gone down?

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Speaker 6: Because something's gone up so much that now I'm afraid

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Speaker 6: that it's too big in the portfolio, and I don't

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Speaker 6: want to take a single stock or a handful of

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Speaker 6: stock risk that's too big. But that's the problem with

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Speaker 6: underperforming the SMP last year, right because the sixth biggest,

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Speaker 6: seven biggest stocks were all of the performance. So if

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Speaker 6: you rebounce too much, you're you're trailing those indices.

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Speaker 1: Talk about overseas markets, is there anything attractive about them?

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Speaker 2: Right now?

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Speaker 6: You know, we tend to be American US centric in

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Speaker 6: terms of our investments. There are a lot of ways

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Speaker 6: to play overseas markets with US companies. I think that

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Speaker 6: for US, the difficult thing is seeing why another economy

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Speaker 6: is going to either outstrip the US or do something

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Speaker 6: more than just have a giant move. Now that Japan

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Speaker 6: had a big move, but the currency had a big move,

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Speaker 6: So if you're not in Japanese, yeah, that big move

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Speaker 6: doesn't necessarily feel as good unless you completely hedge that

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Speaker 6: move out. So for us. We like to look at

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Speaker 6: things that we like to look at ways of playing

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Speaker 6: overseas markets with US centric stock.

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Speaker 4: Sir, thank you, Sarah Hunt. We'll have her in off

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Speaker 4: in here. Just a great guest.

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Speaker 2: Unlike the reality of a portfolio.

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Speaker 4: This is a joy. Paper Soldiers. Don't look for the

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Speaker 4: movie there it is.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure she hasn't sold the movie rights, but it's

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Speaker 2: under consideration.

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Speaker 4: Salaiah Mosen.

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Speaker 2: And the reason we're talking to her is because she's

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Speaker 2: a real journalist. There's this rumor I'm a journalist. Guess

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Speaker 2: what I'm not. Only Marty Schenker thinks I'm a journalist.

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Speaker 2: My great advisor here at Bloomberg. Selaiah is the real deal.

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Speaker 2: And she's gone out and put together the soap opera

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Speaker 2: of your United States Dollar under Risk at Treasury. Given

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Speaker 2: the crises that are out there, she runs our Treasury

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Speaker 2: covers in Washington. The book is a piercing two hundred

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Speaker 2: pages how the weaponization of the dollar changed the world order. Seleiah,

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Speaker 2: congratulations and the courage on writing this. When Tim Geidner

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Speaker 2: reads this book, when he reads Paper Soldiers, how upset

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Speaker 2: is he.

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Speaker 3: Going to be?

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Speaker 7: I'm so excited this book is coming out on Tuesday Day.

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Speaker 7: Tim Geidner is actually going to be excited, and not

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Speaker 7: because of how he may or may not look at it.

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Speaker 7: My conversation for the book with him came right before,

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Speaker 7: about a month before the Russia invasion Ukraine, a month

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Speaker 7: before those historic almost earth shattering sanctions that the US

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Speaker 7: led the world on applying on Russia. And somehow he

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Speaker 7: was so pressy in our interview. I asked him all

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Speaker 7: of my questions. He answered everything patiently, and then he

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Speaker 7: held me back at the end and he said, Seleia,

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Speaker 7: when you're writing this book, I want you to think

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Speaker 7: about how the next generation of policymakers at Treasury are

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Speaker 7: going to have a different America that they're facing. And

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Speaker 7: that shifted the lens through which I was looking at.

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Speaker 2: So I sat across from Parliament with John Taylor, who

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Speaker 2: was at a G seven meeting for a very ill

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Speaker 2: John Snow and they were at the time with the

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Speaker 2: fear of terrorism, foreign exchange transfers, and will as well.

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Speaker 4: I want you to sell to our.

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Speaker 2: Audience on Apple car playing YouTube, the why of this book.

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Speaker 4: They're interested in the Fed, the Fed, the Fed, the Fed.

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Speaker 2: Why does Albert Gallatin's Treasury matter in our nation's security.

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Speaker 7: The US the world runs on US dollars. The Treasure

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Speaker 7: Department is the steward of the dollar. The dollar touches

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Speaker 7: everyone's life. You could be a cocoa bean picker in Ghana,

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Speaker 7: you could be an oligarch or a business tycoon somewhere,

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Speaker 7: and you need the dollar, the global financial system to

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Speaker 7: make any kind of transactions to keep up your livelihood.

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Speaker 7: The US has used that dollar to protect itself after

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Speaker 7: nine to eleven. The global the war on terror did

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Speaker 7: not start with military tanks rolling toward a country. It

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Speaker 7: started with the stroke of the pen when George W.

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Speaker 7: Bush gave the Treasure Department fresh authorities to track money

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Speaker 7: that the money flow of terrorists, and to use economic sanctions.

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Speaker 7: So the dollar gets us health, it gives us the

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Speaker 7: pursuit of happiness, It gives us connection to the world.

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Speaker 2: And an alshy protext in the Scarlet is Valerie, you

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Speaker 2: started just staying said in the Great Barrier, I con

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Speaker 2: greeted Berkeley. It is our exorbitant privilege.

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Speaker 1: It is our exorbitant privilege, and it's one that we

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Speaker 1: don't have to think about a whole lot when it

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Speaker 1: comes down to it, because day in and day out, sleiha.

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Speaker 1: Most Americans aren't really concerned with the relative strength or

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Speaker 1: weakness of the US currency unless they're traveling abroad. You

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Speaker 1: mentioned an oligarch overseas, you mentioned a foreign business owner,

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Speaker 1: But for ordinary Americans, day in and day out, it's

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Speaker 1: not something we have to trouble ourselves with. In your reporting,

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Speaker 1: what do you think will most distress ordinary Americans about

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Speaker 1: the dollar and how the government has weaponized the dollar.

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Speaker 7: I think the most distressing thing is what's playing out

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Speaker 7: every day across the country and in Washington. It's the

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Speaker 7: self inflicted wounds that we are giving our country, and

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Speaker 7: that is actually damaging the US's dominance in the world

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Speaker 7: and the dollar's dominance in the world. If Washington can't

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Speaker 7: get if the US can't get its fiscal house in

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Speaker 7: order make sure it's electorate feels heard, feels happy, becomes united,

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Speaker 7: then dollar dominance and American hedge money around the world

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Speaker 7: is not going to last.

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Speaker 1: Okay. The US Treasury, as you know, has always pledged

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Speaker 1: allegiance to a strong dollar. They all answered that they

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Speaker 1: want a strong dollar. Obviously, we know it's much more

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Speaker 1: nuanced than that. What are they really saying, sal how

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Speaker 1: or is that statement nothing at all?

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Speaker 7: Now? It's really nothing at all. You know, it was

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Speaker 7: treasury lore. It was a mantra from the strong, from

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Speaker 7: the Bob Ruben administration. At the time. It meant that

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Speaker 7: we are relying on our economic strength to rule global

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Speaker 7: commerce and to run our own economy, and it underpin globalization.

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Speaker 7: And now Trump started a movement to look inward more

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Speaker 7: populous policies, and Biden has carried that fourth By America friends,

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00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 7: shoring sound a lot like make America greater again and

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Speaker 7: America First. And so we are shifting toward a policy

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Speaker 7: where there's no real dollar policy, because no one wants

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Speaker 7: to admit to a week dollar policy because with one hand,

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Speaker 7: peak exchange rate is good for manufacturing. With the other hand,

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Speaker 7: dollar dominance and hegemony is really good for a.

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Speaker 2: Celeyah off of paper soldiers. And I guess it's after

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Speaker 2: the book. It'll be for your second edition, your sequel.

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Speaker 2: I should say, how's Yellen doing? Has she been a

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Speaker 2: successful Secretary of Treasury?

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Speaker 7: She's still there. She has navigated through a lot. You know,

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Speaker 7: she had to be there to oversee the execution and

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Speaker 7: implementation of some really complicated, huge sanctions on Russia and

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Speaker 7: take a lot of the flak. A lot of people

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Speaker 7: these days are wondering whether those sanctions really worked or not.

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Speaker 7: The oil price cap was a really big deal for

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Speaker 7: Janet Yellen, and of course inflation. She was one of

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Speaker 7: the people who was calling it transitory while millions of

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Speaker 7: Americans were seen and then it turned out to not

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Speaker 7: be true. But I think we still need some time

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Speaker 7: to know whether how her legacy will stand after her.

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Speaker 2: I can't say enough about this book. It's a little book,

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Speaker 2: but it's a powerful book. Paper Soldiers, How the weaponization

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Speaker 2: of the dollar changed the world order Selaya Moss, And

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Speaker 2: it just can't find the words for the dialogue and

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Speaker 2: the velocity as through it of all these people worrying

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Speaker 2: about crisis one in crisis too, Sleiah, thank you so

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Speaker 2: much for Paper as Soldiers.

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Speaker 3: She is with Bloomberg.

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Speaker 4: News in Washington.

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00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 2: You daily look at the front pages without royal coverage.

440
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 4: It's from around the world except the UK. Lisa, what

441
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 4: do you got?

442
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:46,159
Speaker 1: All right?

443
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 8: We're starting with the Wall Street Journal. Apparently there is

444
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 8: a fake Bill Ackman that is scamming investors out of

445
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 8: millions of dollars on Facebook. So the problem is that

446
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 8: the real actman can't do anything about it. Okay, so

447
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,199
Speaker 8: his company has found more than ninety different ads that

448
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,199
Speaker 8: are impersonating him. One of them promised annual returns of

449
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 8: one hundred and twenty five percent, another twenty five exactly exactly,

450
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,400
Speaker 8: another twenty five percent return in a week, and told

451
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 8: victims to hold these three stocks and you'll.

452
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 5: Get a million.

453
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 4: The entity is doing so he can't go out to.

454
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 8: Can't do nothing about it, and that's the problem. It's

455
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 8: not just Acman. I mean Kathy Wood's Ark investment matter.

456
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:26,199
Speaker 8: She had this caleto and a lot of people. I

457
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 8: even my own brother in law had his Facebook account

458
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,359
Speaker 8: taken over and he can't do anything.

459
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,640
Speaker 4: But what's Facebook doing about this?

460
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 8: They're doing nothing about it, and.

461
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 4: That's the problem. Full disclosure.

462
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,640
Speaker 1: You're sending out my stock messages when someone complains.

463
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 2: I have a secret account on Instagram, but I had

464
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:47,160
Speaker 2: to leave Instagram because Instagram wouldn't.

465
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 4: Fix the problem.

466
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,159
Speaker 1: What happened when you tried to consent with that?

467
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 8: Yeah?

468
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 4: Oh it was a great bloomberg. We have a whole

469
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 4: team here that does this. It wouldn't like any other firm.

470
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 2: But the answer is you're telling me about mister Ackman,

471
00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 2: and I'm saying, okay, Facebook, can you fix it by

472
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 2: Friday twelve noon.

473
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 4: Don't tell me they can't.

474
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 8: Yeah, well they can in certain intoms like they have.

475
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 8: But the problem is that more just keep popping up.

476
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 8: So once they delete a few a few.

477
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 1: More bim with two ends or black three ends.

478
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 8: It just continues and continues. So next it's a tough one.

479
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 8: But the red flags, yes, you have to be aware

480
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 8: of those red flags. This is from Bloomberg Law. It's

481
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 8: it's kind of I have to kind of dig into

482
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 8: this one. There's saying new lie detecting AI for job interviews,

483
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 8: violating some old laws. This was a case bought over

484
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 8: in Massachusetts the use of ARTI artificial intelligence as a

485
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 8: lie detector when people are interviewing for a job. So

486
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 8: this is a problem. This is a court case with

487
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 8: CBS Health. The person said they use this video interview

488
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 8: technology that was developed by a company that reported their

489
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 8: job reported these job seekers while they were answering questions.

490
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 8: They then took that video and sent it over to

491
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 8: an AI company that basically starts to interpret how the

492
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 8: people are reacting, So it's it's giving them their emotions,

493
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 8: it's making an assessment on the person from that, you

494
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 8: know information we feel uncomfortable. Yeah, so it's like you're

495
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 8: being recorded and then you're having AI tell the company

496
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 8: who you really.

497
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 4: Are train the AI.

498
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's well, it's of the real world Adobe. I

499
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 2: think this morning was done ten percent or something. And

500
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 2: then you know there's some financial issues. But also there's

501
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 2: this like, Okay, when's the AI click in? And I

502
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 2: really wonder if that's when we look ahead?

503
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 4: Is that the discussion?

504
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:33,719
Speaker 1: Is this the best use of AI? Is this what

505
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 1: we want the AI to be used for?

506
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 3: Right? That's a good question.

507
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 1: That's one thing to make things more productive and more seamless,

508
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: But is this the seamlessness we're seeking?

509
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: Right?

510
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 4: Maybe minution will make TikTok the new AI. Next?

511
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 8: Yeah, Okay, Wall Street Journal Luxuries resorts, they are ramping

512
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 8: up their kids club. They're going all out because more

513
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 8: families are traveling. So you have accommodations that started about

514
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 8: fourteen hundred dollars a night. You have places that offer

515
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 8: kids programm like Spanish language lessons. They can learn Spanish

516
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 8: while they're on vacation.

517
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 1: Kids want to do that.

518
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 4: They can take dance lessons.

519
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,679
Speaker 8: I think kids just want to go in the water pool.

520
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 8: I don't know, but they're doing it. It's like kids

521
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 8: clubs on steroids, that's what they're calling it.

522
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 4: It's a huge deal.

523
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, And to give a snapshot into this, it's cheaper

524
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 2: for me. I'm leaving for Paris tonight. It's cheaper for

525
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 2: me to go to Paris than to go to some

526
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 2: resort with kids clubs. Because the key number you just

527
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 2: said was fourteen hundred dollars a night.

528
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 3: That's cheap.

529
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 2: That's cheap, trust me, that's cheap in prime season the Caribbean.

530
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 2: And it's gone up from the pandemic. I had the

531
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 2: last plane out of Jamaica literally when the pandemic collapsed everything.

532
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 4: And I would say.

533
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 2: Since twenty nineteen it's gone up eighty percent.

534
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 4: I'm guessing eight zero.

535
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 1: That's pricing power.

536
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 2: And it's all yeah, talk about pricing and every unit sold.

537
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 2: It's like, I'm sorry, mister King, we can slip you

538
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 2: in a Jamaica in July.

539
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 4: That really works out.

540
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 2: But you know that is this goes to the real

541
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 2: estate scarlet you were talking about. I'm sorry, I'm looking

542
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 2: around and it's a boom economy.

543
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: Everyone's trying to get into the towns where the schools

544
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 1: are good so they can set their kids up so

545
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,640
Speaker 1: that maybe one day their kids can have a similar

546
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: standard of living that they enjoy right now.

547
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say that's part of what do you got?

548
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 4: You got something last week?

549
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:31,919
Speaker 8: Taylor Swift it's a Friday Royal, so they got a

550
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 8: special treat Disney. Plus, remember they're going to stream her concert.

551
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 8: It was supposed to be tonight. Well they did it

552
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 8: last night, what at nine pm? So all the Swifties.

553
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 8: It was a surprise the Swifties got. They're probably a

554
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 8: bit tired this morning. They've seen a plate to watch it.

555
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,400
Speaker 8: But I mean, Disney report, you played like seventy five

556
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 8: million dollars for those worldwide streaming rights. So it went

557
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 8: off last night. They had a few extra songs in there,

558
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 8: and yeah, it was like a special treat for them.

559
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 6: So we got a day or like, do you have

560
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 6: a Swifty.

561
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:00,640
Speaker 4: In your family? Oh yeah, oh yeah.

562
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah hardcore I.

563
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 2: Think every family does. I've said this before. There's a

564
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 2: spectacular video of her with the guitar. It's a number

565
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 2: of years ago at the Bloomberg Cafe. The sounds terrible,

566
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 2: the mic is terrible for guitars and two and I'll

567
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 2: give her that. And she literally just walks up there

568
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 2: and sits down, and you know, seeing her in really

569
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 2: difficult conditions.

570
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 4: She's the real deal.

571
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best

572
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also

573
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast

574
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from

575
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,320
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576
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,120
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577
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578
00:27:56,200 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.