1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 11 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 3: Paulciana joins us. 12 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 2: Had his fit technical strategy at Bank of America. Paul, 13 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 2: you don't mince any words about it. This is a 14 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 2: two year going well above five percent? How does it 15 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 2: get there? 16 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 4: Yes? 17 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 5: Indeed, so base case technical process says there's something called 18 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 5: a rising wedge pattered forming and the riding wet term 19 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 5: chart of two year yield right, which says this cycle 20 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 5: needs to make another marginal new high this year. 21 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 3: What is the bet now in the bond market? 22 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 2: Can it be like an in video where everybody's on 23 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:17,320 Speaker 2: board an inequity stock in luisja Buscham because there's an 24 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 2: is there an oomph to the bid? 25 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 3: Excuse me? Is there an oomp to a lower price 26 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:23,839 Speaker 3: higher yield on two your. 27 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 5: I think it's driven by the commodity space. Really, the 28 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 5: higher commodities. 29 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 3: You're speaking terms of Francisco Blanche. It's unbelievable, that's breaking news. 30 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 3: Commodities are driving the two year yield. 31 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 5: Yes, it's the inflation scare, right. The higher commodity prices go, 32 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 5: the more markets think about sticky inflation, the risk of 33 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 5: the Fed staying on hold for longer, potentially pricing outcuts 34 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 5: the narrative talking about whether or not we get a hike, 35 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 5: which is unlikely. 36 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean the interns today, Paul, and it 37 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 3: came in. They didn't break brief me on Brent. Brent 38 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 3: was eighty three, it's now rounded up eighty five dollars 39 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 3: a barrel. There's that inflation exactly right. 40 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 4: And Tom, I'm looking at Paul, She's got this is 41 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 4: research note. 42 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 6: There's just way too many charts. 43 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 4: And I mean, he wrote a book. 44 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 3: He couldn't he had to. He couldn't even get into 45 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 3: Le cirque Across was right. He had to show his 46 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 3: idea at le Circa and they didn't even believe his 47 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 3: id and he had a book out on technical annalysmis. 48 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 4: He's like seventeen years exactly. 49 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 6: So, Paul, what do we do here with this ten 50 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 6: year treasure? It feels like, I don't know, four point 51 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 6: fifty fourth were kind of feel like we're in a 52 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 6: kind of a training ranger. 53 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:32,799 Speaker 3: How do you think about the ten year we do? 54 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 5: You know, our our medium term view here in the 55 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 5: ten year yield is you know, we're in this first 56 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 5: half of twenty twenty four, which we define as counter 57 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 5: trend to fourth quarter twenty three. Fourth quarter twenty three 58 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 5: yields fell, first half of this year yields up. I 59 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 5: think we're nearing the end of that period where we 60 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:52,119 Speaker 5: should be looking for tops in the ten year yield 61 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 5: chart or signals that say we peak out by five 62 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:57,359 Speaker 5: percent and roll over in the second half of the year. 63 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 2: You take your trend analyis respected John fitzger Old Kennedy. 64 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 2: What do we learned by taking the ten year trend 65 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:05,639 Speaker 2: backed in nineteen sixty two sixty three. 66 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 5: That it went up for fifteen years and about down 67 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 5: for thirty So that doesn't mean it can't go up 68 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 5: for fifteen years, right, anything is possible in markets. And 69 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 5: what I think changed in twenty twenty was the downtrending yields. 70 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 5: That secular decline clearly ended, right, the downtrend channel that 71 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 5: everybody loves for so long from the peak in nineteen 72 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 5: eighty five down to the twenty twenty low, it broke. 73 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 5: And I think what's even more fantastic from a technical 74 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 5: lens is that there was a head and shoulders bottom 75 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 5: in the monthly charts of ten year yields when it 76 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 5: did in fact change the secular tide. And you know, 77 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 5: to see that happen, it complements the head and shoulders 78 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 5: top back in the early nineteen eighties. So these are 79 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 5: the same technical patterns tom that are formed by different 80 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 5: investors over different generations, repeating themselves. 81 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 6: So is this kind of a are we Is this 82 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 6: kind of the new normal here? You know, we got 83 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 6: a ten year you know four five percent? 84 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 3: Is that kind of the new normal here? 85 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 5: I define it as we're now in a secular bear 86 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 5: market in treasuries, secular overall. Biggest picture, right, people would 87 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 5: say the equity markets are in a secular bulb, right, 88 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 5: and treasuries we're in a secular bear, which is rising 89 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 5: yields for the biggest picture. So this year they come 90 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 5: back down again, but maybe next year or two they 91 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 5: go to higher highs. 92 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 2: If a stock is a moonshot, and we're gonna go 93 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 2: a little technical here now because Ciana can keep up 94 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 2: with this if you run a semi logue or slope 95 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 2: matters percent change, and even if you take Wells Wader 96 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 2: in nineteen seventy eight and you look at some trend. 97 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 3: Analysis as well. Can you chart in Vidia? I mean, 98 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 3: I'm not it's outside your remit to give me buy, 99 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 3: hold sell on in Vidia? Right? 100 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 4: True? 101 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:52,600 Speaker 3: Okay? Can you technically chart a moonshot, whether it's copper 102 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 3: or in video? Absolutely? Well, what do you see now 103 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,799 Speaker 3: in a moonshot like in video? Well? Is it contained? 104 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:03,039 Speaker 4: Is in control? Arithmetic scale? Let's Lisa, it's like. 105 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 3: A whoa whoa, whoa, whoa whoah to any syllables, Lisa, 106 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 3: can we go arithmetic today? A logarithmic there we got 107 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:12,279 Speaker 3: to arithmetic, He's a guest. 108 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 5: Look logarhythmic scale. It's up into the right. 109 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 3: Right. 110 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 5: If you look at the dollar since two thousand and eight, 111 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 5: the dollars up into the right. 112 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 3: What's your dollar call? 113 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:23,039 Speaker 5: We're bullish? 114 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:23,840 Speaker 3: Your bullish? 115 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:27,239 Speaker 5: Do you think the dollar stays supported this quarter? There's 116 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 5: potential for a breakout in the Bloomberg Dollar Index, for example, 117 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 5: to another high for the year before there's any risk 118 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 5: of it rolling over. Ultimately, the dollar isn't the trade here. 119 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 5: It's swings three percent either way. It's the currency on 120 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:42,159 Speaker 5: the other half. Right, So if you want to carry 121 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 5: because actually portfolios. 122 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:45,479 Speaker 3: Sess hour hour. 123 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 2: Only Damien can talk carry here, Paul I, I really 124 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:52,600 Speaker 2: I got time for one more question. We have James 125 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 2: kke Lastman coming in later iconic for Dow thirty six thousand. 126 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 3: It took a while to get there. Can you frame 127 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 3: out a roaring twenties like Edyard Denny where we're in 128 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 3: an extended bull market? 129 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 5: You know what we can frame out in our equity 130 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 5: technical research is that every cycle that we've pretty much 131 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 5: looked at for this year is positive and it does 132 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 5: indicate stronger statistics for the summer rally and stronger statistics 133 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 5: to your end. So big picture, we do think that 134 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 5: equity markets are in the secular bull cycle, not as 135 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 5: secular bear. So yes, it is supportive of that narrative. 136 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 3: Okay, okay, he knows what he's talking about. He knows 137 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 3: who the food court is ex. 138 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 2: Bloomberg now holding court at Bank of America, doing a 139 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:45,119 Speaker 2: great job there. And I really can't say enough about 140 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:45,480 Speaker 2: his book. 141 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:46,720 Speaker 3: It is not dated. 142 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 2: It is a brilliant book, a little dense. They're a 143 00:06:50,200 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 2: pro book on technicals as well. Thank god for Amanda 144 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 2: Linum of Villanova who hit the pause button in the 145 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 2: control room and said there that should do it. I 146 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 2: mean I had that once happened where you know, it's 147 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 2: like one little button in a studio and boom it's on. 148 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 3: Thank you Amanda for getting our audio back. 149 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 2: Joining us some blackrock, Amandelignum right now, we just had 150 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 2: Pausiana from Bank of America and it's in the zeitgeist 151 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 2: as non consensus, but with nominal. 152 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 3: GDP where it is with the spirit of Atlanta GDP. Now, 153 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 3: what if rates go higher, how does Blackrock and how 154 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 3: do you, Amanda line them frame out a two year 155 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 3: or at five point zero five five point one? 156 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 7: Oh sure, good morning, and thank you first of all 157 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 7: for having me. I think, Tom, what you're raising is 158 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 7: is the reason why we think that there's not really 159 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 7: a sense of urgency for the FED to normalize policy, 160 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 7: and even when they do, it's likely to be a 161 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 7: shallow cutting cycle. So for corporate credit, that means we 162 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 7: shouldn't be banking on significant near term interest rate relief. 163 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 7: I think the tail risk that we're watching, and the 164 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 7: longer that rate cuts get delayed, I think lends more 165 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 7: credence to this possibility is that of a rate hike. 166 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 7: And rate hike would not be negative for credit because 167 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 7: of the incremental twenty five or fifty basis points mathematically, 168 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 7: it would be more negative for credit because of the 169 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 7: uncertainty that it would interject related to the forward path 170 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 7: of monetary policy. That's not a great backdrop for credit. 171 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 7: That's not a great backdrop for deal making, specifically kind 172 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 7: of sponsor related m and A. And so that's what 173 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,559 Speaker 7: we're watching for. It's not our base case, but it's 174 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 7: a concern. And that's that's really the risk. 175 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:41,719 Speaker 3: Sponsor Sponsor related and A is when the twerp the 176 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 3: kid asks you if they can go to the third 177 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 3: lacrosse camp this summer. That's what sponsor really did means. 178 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 6: So Amanda, he I mean I could sit here to 179 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 6: your treasury like a lot of investors here and get 180 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 6: close to five percent. 181 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 5: That's not a bad trade. 182 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 6: Or should I take some credit risky things? 183 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 7: So we like taking credit risk and floating rate exposures, 184 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 7: So leverage loans, for example, up around three and a 185 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 7: half percent year to date, outperforming high yield up around 186 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 7: one point five percent. Total return IG is lagging because 187 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 7: of the duration exposure. I think importantly, if you're deploying 188 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 7: money in corporate credit, you need to be deploying for 189 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:18,320 Speaker 7: income and yield, not for total return. We shouldn't be 190 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 7: banking on a significant rally in rates to really kind 191 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 7: of juice those total returns. Nor should we be banking 192 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 7: on material spread compression, because spreads are already quite tight. 193 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 7: So really the conversations that we're having in capital deployment 194 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 7: and corporate credit is really about locking in those yields. 195 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 3: I'm going to get you in trouble. It's confusing, folks. 196 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 3: There's black rock, there's blackstone. There's black Rock. 197 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 2: Which is the building CBS is in over I think 198 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 2: it's on sixth Avenue. 199 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 3: A man, I'm going to get you in trouble here. 200 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 2: If we get a rate regime higher, what does that 201 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 2: do to private equity and private credit valuations. 202 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 3: My math doesn't work. 203 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 7: Yeah, So, somewhat counterintuitively, Tom, against this backdrop of high 204 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 7: for long, we've seen covenant defaults in one of the 205 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 7: private credit industries that we track decline for four consecutive quarters, 206 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 7: which is a bit of a counterintuitive result. It speaks 207 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:14,440 Speaker 7: to the flexibility that is inherent in this long term 208 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 7: lender bar relationship. I think the point you're raising is 209 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 7: also applicable in the public markets, and for a given 210 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 7: company with a given business model and a given macro 211 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 7: backdrop of say higher for even longer, they're probably afforded 212 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,679 Speaker 7: more flexibility in the private markets relative to the liquid However, 213 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 7: I do think that when you're thinking about sponsor related 214 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 7: m and A, so again not strategic companies buying other companies, 215 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 7: but more lbo activity, financing is a major component of 216 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 7: that equation, and so it would likely keep that sort 217 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:47,319 Speaker 7: of activity well on. 218 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 2: In Twitter, Yes to this guy, I'm sorry, don't have 219 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 2: his name in front of it. He's absolutely fabulous. I 220 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:53,959 Speaker 2: read everything he does. He breaks down all these property 221 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 2: deals that go bust. And there's a deal that went bust. 222 00:10:57,040 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 2: I can't remember the geography it doesn't matter where they 223 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 2: so the mezzanine financing and equitized it. That's what I 224 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 2: see coming here with a higher rate regime is somebody 225 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 2: puts a shotgun too somebody's head and says, all of 226 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 2: a sudden. 227 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 3: Its equity. 228 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 7: And I think with respect to commercial real estate the 229 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 7: trend that we've seen over the past eighteen months has 230 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 7: been extending. I think we've underestimated the ability and the 231 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 7: willingness yeah of lenders to work with their borrowers. And so, 232 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,440 Speaker 7: for example, Real Capital Analytics estimates there was more than 233 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 7: two hundred billion of CRO debt that was supposed to 234 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 7: mature in twenty twenty three that did not, so it 235 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 7: was pushed to twenty twenty four. So now that twenty 236 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 7: twenty four maturity wall is not six hundred billion, it's 237 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 7: around eight hundred billion. If we have the environment where 238 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,719 Speaker 7: you interject uncertainty related to monetary policy, I think, but 239 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 7: there may be a limit to that. I think tom 240 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 7: is the kind of the tail risk in a higher 241 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 7: for longer rate environment where importantly there's uncertainty so that 242 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 7: expectations in that price discovery process can't get met between 243 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 7: the buyer and the cellar Mandy your. 244 00:11:56,640 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 6: Head of macro credit research at Blackrock, How do you 245 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 6: think about private credit because that's been a business that's 246 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:06,080 Speaker 6: just exploded in the last ten to fifteen years on 247 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 6: Wall Street. 248 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:09,839 Speaker 7: Yeah, we actually have a pretty constructive view on private credit. 249 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 7: We're expecting it to grow at around a fifteen percent 250 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 7: compound annual growth rate over the next five years. That's 251 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 7: actually below the twenty percent compound annual growth rate of 252 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,559 Speaker 7: the past five but we think it's actually a positive 253 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 7: from the perspective of several years ago, if we were 254 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 7: having this conversation, a company may have decided between issuing 255 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,319 Speaker 7: a hild bond and a leverage loan in the syndicated market. 256 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:31,439 Speaker 7: Now there's this third and viable option. Importantly, we also 257 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:34,559 Speaker 7: see scope for this to grow beyond corporate lending to 258 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,439 Speaker 7: asset based lending. So as banks become more selective with 259 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 7: their lending, we see actually an opportunity for private credit 260 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:42,319 Speaker 7: to step in there. So we have a pretty constructiveview 261 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 7: on it. 262 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 6: Are you worried at all about the maybe lack of 263 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 6: regulatory oversight of that market because it doesn't seem like 264 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 6: it's not an sec type of thing thing. 265 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,559 Speaker 7: There is actually a fair amount of oversight in terms 266 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 7: of how these companies operate business. I think the one 267 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 7: stat actually, if I had to pick one that gives 268 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,320 Speaker 7: me comfort, it's that new and this is using data 269 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:06,319 Speaker 7: from pre quinn New entrance in private credit have raised 270 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 7: two percent two and a half percent of capital on 271 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 7: average since twenty twenty two. So it's showing that actually 272 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,319 Speaker 7: the market's being discerning and where it's allocating capital, it's 273 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 7: valuing expertise, experience, governance. 274 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 3: Running out of time. 275 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 2: But a big question, and particularly into the Apple meeting, 276 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:24,679 Speaker 2: is big tech big tech finally going to grow up 277 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 2: an issue debt? 278 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,199 Speaker 7: Well, we've seen the capital markets in IG wide open 279 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 7: books four times over subscribe. I mean, I think if 280 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 7: I'm a corporate treasurer CFO, especially if I'm in a 281 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:42,680 Speaker 7: cash rich position, I think I would be I would 282 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 7: be prudently issuing in the first half of this year. 283 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 7: There's a fair amount of event risk cutting into the 284 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 7: second half, where I think whose treasure is to take 285 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:51,559 Speaker 7: some chips off the table. Specifically, even though the risk 286 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 7: free rate is elevated, spreads are tight, the tone is good, 287 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:57,199 Speaker 7: and I think they should probably think about taking that window. 288 00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 3: We got through this without asking her about bitcoin. Yep, 289 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:04,439 Speaker 3: exactly good. That's good a man, Alinea, This is brilliant. 290 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 3: Thank you so much. She's with black Rock. Yes, prett 291 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:12,200 Speaker 3: to digress here right now. 292 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 2: And it is into the election season and all that 293 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 2: we have and it is into a taut of two 294 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 2: hundred and thirty nine page book. It is cheaper, faster, better, 295 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 2: How will win the Climate War? By a guy who's 296 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 2: never mailed it in time on the Upper ef. 297 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 3: You went to Yale and you could have been a flunky, 298 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 3: and you were absolutely nailed it in economics. Where did 299 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 3: you know? 300 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 2: Everybody knows you had to drive in investment capital goldmen 301 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 2: Sex Morgan stantly blah blah blah. Where did you get 302 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 2: the drive the first day at Yale University to not 303 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 2: be another spoiled brat exit? 304 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 3: Where did that come from? Well? 305 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: I guess you never met my mom. 306 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 3: You know, it's so funny slave it on maham right. 307 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 1: Well, I give her an enormous amount of credit because 308 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 1: she's one of the most down to earth people I've 309 00:14:58,000 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 1: met in my whole life. 310 00:14:58,800 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 3: Okay, she was you. 311 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 1: She ran school of volunteer programs all over New York. 312 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 3: She worked at the House of Detention. Is that right. 313 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: She worked at the Brooklyn House, she rode her bike 314 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 1: all over the city. She was she accepted herself, and 315 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 1: that meant she could accept everybody else in society, from 316 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: the fanciest to the least fancy, and look at him 317 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 1: in the eyes an equal. And that's how I was 318 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 1: brought up. And that's what I believe. 319 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 3: The last chapter of Cheaper, Faster, Better is the heart 320 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 3: of the matter. 321 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 2: You're widely perceived as a Democrat with Mondel and all 322 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 2: of your work over the years, but you have to 323 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 2: speak to a doubting America on climate change. When the 324 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 2: conservatives read this book, what do you want them to 325 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 2: get out of it? 326 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 1: What I want him to think is that this is 327 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: an American a potential American success story, one that we 328 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 1: are going to win. But we're going to win it together. 329 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: I mean, the book is called Cheaper, Faster, Better, How 330 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: We'll win the climate War, which means we're going to 331 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 1: win it in the marketplace. 332 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 3: We're going to win it with. 333 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 1: The cheapest, best products in the world, and that's actually 334 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: how we're going to solve this crisis. But also how 335 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 1: we're going to have another American century, how we're going 336 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: to come together as a people. We shouldn't be divided 337 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 1: on this, we should be together. 338 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 3: Paul and I are in London. 339 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 2: Climate change green is you're steeped in it, particularly in 340 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 2: the continent of Europe as well. Is the reason America's 341 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 2: behind is some Lockean individualistic ethos from eighteen twenty or 342 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 2: for the Better seventeen twenty. 343 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 1: Well, let me say this, Tom, there is a lot 344 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 1: of talk in the US, but let's look at what's 345 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: actually happening in the US. I mean in one of 346 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: the states where the talk is strongest against the sort 347 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 1: of clean tech revolution, which would be Texas. They've tripled 348 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: their solar in the last three years and it's going 349 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: to go up another thirty five percent years. 350 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 3: I saw this week paw An article. Texas is the 351 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 3: most green state right now, exactly my point. 352 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 1: So they can talk and talk and talk, but my 353 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 1: point is we win in the marketplace. Texas produces by 354 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: far the most wind energy of any state by far. 355 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 1: Why are they doing it to be nice to be woke. 356 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 1: I think they're doing it because it's cheap and it's 357 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 1: a good deal. And that's my point is for whatever reason, 358 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:08,439 Speaker 1: people do it. We need to come together on this 359 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 1: and win. It's important for us economically, it's important for 360 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: us as a people. And by the way, we look 361 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: at what's happening in Texas, look at what's happening in 362 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 1: the southern United States right now in terms of storms, 363 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 1: in terms of a heat dome, in terms of people dying. 364 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 1: That's what's actually going on, and the people in Texas 365 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 1: know it. And the question is why don't we accept 366 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,719 Speaker 1: each other, accept each other's motives. We're good people across 367 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 1: this country. We share an awful lot, we're all patriotic. 368 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 1: Why don't we go and win together in the way 369 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:37,760 Speaker 1: that the United States is built to do. 370 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 6: You take a look at I think if you talk 371 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 6: to the average personal industry, one of the. 372 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 3: Things they think about, and I think. 373 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 6: By clean energy, would be electric vehicles. And we had 374 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 6: a nice initial surge and we have this great Tesla's 375 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,199 Speaker 6: success story, which is phenomenal. But what we've seen over 376 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 6: the last year, year and a half, two years is 377 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 6: pulling back a little bit from the auto industry. It 378 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 6: seems like maybe the first adopters for evs they're already satiated. 379 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 6: Where's a demand going to be. That's been a concern. 380 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 6: Now I read an article in the Journal about maybe 381 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,479 Speaker 6: this whole evy thing's becoming politicized, the people that believe 382 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 6: in climate change versus the people that don't believe in 383 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:11,120 Speaker 6: climate change. 384 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 1: How do you bring those so lot together? Paul, let 385 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,120 Speaker 1: me just tell you a story. So, probably seven years ago, 386 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: one of my very best friends in the world, who 387 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:22,199 Speaker 1: I would describe as a business Republican, somebody who believes 388 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 1: that the economy drives success, that business drives the economy. 389 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: That you know, a traditional concert you know, moderate conservative, 390 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 1: but a really smart guy. He bought a Tesla and 391 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,399 Speaker 1: he's a car guy. He's from California. When I met 392 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 1: him at eighteen, he took me out in his car 393 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:38,120 Speaker 1: and took it up to one hundred miles an hour 394 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:40,360 Speaker 1: to show me how fast it could go. He bought 395 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: a Tesla seven years ago. I said, Matthew, you know, 396 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 1: you know, are you out to change save the world here? 397 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 1: He's like, absolutely not. This car goes zero to sixty 398 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:50,879 Speaker 1: so fast you can't believe it. It handles better than 399 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 1: the European sports car. I love this car. So in fact, cheaper, faster, better. 400 00:18:57,040 --> 00:18:59,440 Speaker 1: Americans are going to buy the cars that they enjoy, 401 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 1: the ride they believe in, and you know whether that's 402 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 1: going to be Yeah, they had a bad first quarter. 403 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 1: I think a lot of it has to do with 404 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: the product offering, whether there are new products. You know, 405 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:13,200 Speaker 1: where everybody's talking about the thirteen thousand dollars by D 406 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 1: car that goes twelve hundred miles. Now it's a plug 407 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:19,159 Speaker 1: in hybrid. But my point is this is going to 408 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: be product driven. It's gonna be people rievs. 409 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 2: If they're so far ahead of us and delivering that 410 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 2: twelve thousand dollars vehicle. Should President Biden's second term, you'll 411 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 2: probably be in the cabinet. 412 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 3: Should he should he should? He? Should he let the 413 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 3: Chinese evs into the country. 414 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: Look, I'm gonna give you the argument that I'm gonna 415 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 1: give my answer if that's okay, Tom, Look, China is 416 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 1: trying is the country that emits by far the most, 417 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 1: but they're doing everything they can to win industrially in 418 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:51,359 Speaker 1: terms of you know, the clean energy. They're trying to do, 419 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,640 Speaker 1: all the solar panels, all the evs, and they're basically 420 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:56,879 Speaker 1: you know, dumping into the United States. 421 00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:58,360 Speaker 3: And the question is when. 422 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 1: People offer you really good product, really cheap. Should you 423 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,000 Speaker 1: allow them in hurts jobs helps. By the way, you 424 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,959 Speaker 1: guys keep talking about inflation, Oh my god, the bond market. 425 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 1: What do you think was keeping inflation down all these years? 426 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 1: It was cheap products from overseas forcing you know, prices 427 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: there affair. So when I look at that, I go, okay, 428 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: environmentally good, consumer based good, inflation based good. But it 429 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: goes after American jobs. We have to win in the 430 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 1: market fairly on our own. 431 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 2: Guy, one time for one more question. Pharaoh on Capital 432 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:31,000 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. There's a forty page memo in front 433 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 2: of Styre and it says, why don't we have EV 434 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 2: charging stations on the upper east side? What a scandal 435 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:42,359 Speaker 2: that we can't build zillions of charging stations? 436 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 4: Whose fault is it? 437 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:46,880 Speaker 1: Look, as far as I'm concerned, if people will pay 438 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:50,160 Speaker 1: for charging stations, charging stations will get built. The US 439 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 1: has gotten Look, we have not been great about infrastructure 440 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: period time. If you look about how are we doing 441 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:02,200 Speaker 1: in terms of build things? Physical things in this world 442 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 1: were kind of caught up in our underpants. And I 443 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,400 Speaker 1: think that in this case, this is a question where 444 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 1: we have to respond as a society, and I think 445 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 1: from a central place, we have to say the perfect 446 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,159 Speaker 1: is the enemy of the good. Here, we need to 447 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: win here, we need to solve this crisis, and we 448 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: need top down saying we got to cut through the 449 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: red tape. And that's true, you know in virtually every 450 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 1: part of this country. 451 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 3: Cheaper, faster better. 452 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:28,400 Speaker 2: Tom Steyer here with a primal scream about the view 453 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,880 Speaker 2: forward on climate change. Paul from the Mail, I get 454 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 2: hugely controversial. 455 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 4: Your dad, look at the front pages, Lisa. 456 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 3: What do you got? 457 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,399 Speaker 8: How did I miss the Danaife story? 458 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 3: And you can't miss it once you. 459 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 4: See it is all right. 460 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 8: Well, we're gonna start with the Wall Street Journal. This 461 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:00,400 Speaker 8: is about companies four O one K match. They're saying 462 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 8: that it doesn't provide a secure retirement for all Americans, 463 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 8: so not everyone is the same. It's the study by Vanguard. 464 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,199 Speaker 8: It says that that perk mainly benefits high earners. So 465 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,879 Speaker 8: it shows nearly half of two hundred billion dollar companies 466 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,239 Speaker 8: contribute to workers for one k. It goes to that 467 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 8: top twenty percent, and the lowest earning workers get six 468 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 8: percent of the money. So researchers are saying that new 469 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,360 Speaker 8: formulas for company matches. They really need to be curiated 470 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 8: to kind of ensure that better benefit for everybody. 471 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:30,399 Speaker 2: I skim the article. I take immense issue with it. 472 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,120 Speaker 2: And Peter Orzag is expert on this. Or Zeg when 473 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:37,600 Speaker 2: he was at Brookings invented this. The reason it's so 474 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,959 Speaker 2: skewed is the fancy people put more money into their 475 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,120 Speaker 2: four O one K so they get more of a match. 476 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 2: And yes, there should be if we agree that the 477 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 2: retirement program is a disaster, which I feel strongly, we 478 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 2: have to come up with legislation to allow people that 479 00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 2: don't have disposable income to get a bigger four one 480 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 2: K and to get some form of match. But I 481 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 2: just thought the article piled on the halves who have 482 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 2: the cash flow to put aside and take advantage of 483 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,360 Speaker 2: the match and social security. 484 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 6: You can't depend upon social security. 485 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:17,399 Speaker 3: Yeah. 486 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 2: I had the privilege once to talking to Alan Greenspan 487 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 2: about this, and I believe it was nineteen eighty six 488 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 2: was the last time they really walked through it. 489 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,199 Speaker 3: And all this is going to come to an ed. Lisa, 490 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 3: it's really really, really serious. It's it's it's really front 491 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 3: and center. It's something Paul and I are devoted to folks. 492 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,679 Speaker 3: We're going to try to do more in retirement planning 493 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 3: here going forward, because it's a train wreck. It's tough 494 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 3: out there, we el and. 495 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 8: That article really really gets into the potatoes of it. Okay, 496 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 8: orange juice prices, we know they're soaring, right, so the 497 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,679 Speaker 8: Financial Times they didn't know then, Yes, yes, because you 498 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,959 Speaker 8: have problem. You had bad weather diseases in Brazil and 499 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 8: that's like the world's largest exporter, and then you had 500 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 8: the crop problems in Florida to on top of it. 501 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 8: So that's why the orange juice prices are soaring. But 502 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,359 Speaker 8: the Financial Times is saying that it's pushing manufacturers to 503 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 8: think of alternative fruits. So what do you think about 504 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 8: mandarin juice? 505 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,400 Speaker 1: Sure, I like. 506 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 3: There's like a mixture thing. It's I'm fascinated by this. 507 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,120 Speaker 3: Where you grew up, what kind of orange juice? Did 508 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:18,399 Speaker 3: you hit? 509 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:19,120 Speaker 8: Tropicana? 510 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 3: Yes, you had this tropicano in a paper thing, right, 511 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,679 Speaker 3: I grew up where it was un American. If orange 512 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 3: juice wasn't a lump like a hockey puck rosy in 513 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,600 Speaker 3: the freezer, and your mother would go say, go make 514 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 3: the orange juice, and then you stirred around hoping it 515 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 3: would defrost over six hours. And then there's other people. 516 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 3: If it's not in a bottle, they won't drink it. 517 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,359 Speaker 3: What is this about? But I don't buy much orange juice. 518 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 3: It's gotten expensive. 519 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 8: I don't either, but because there's just so much sugar contented. 520 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:54,399 Speaker 8: But it's happening, right. 521 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 1: So what do you water? 522 00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 6: Water time? We're not going to her house? 523 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,879 Speaker 3: Like, no, but fresh fruit is what you eat, except 524 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:05,719 Speaker 3: it's expensive. 525 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 8: Yes, but the fresh fruit you have to make sure 526 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 8: to keep the pulp in it so you get the 527 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:09,360 Speaker 8: fiber too. 528 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 4: No, no, you don't like a minimum pulp person. 529 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 8: You have to get the pulpe in. 530 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 3: There are the orange skin. 531 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 8: You gotta do the pulpe that's where the fiber is. 532 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 8: Come on, ball, No, all right, let's turn. Let's turn 533 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 8: to the olympase. 534 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,200 Speaker 3: Yes, oh, let's turn to something health. 535 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,639 Speaker 8: Yes, we'll go to French fries. Okay, So the New 536 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,679 Speaker 8: York Times is saying French fries will not be on 537 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,880 Speaker 8: the menu for the athletes of the games in France. Now, 538 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 8: it has nothing to do with the health reasons because 539 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 8: they're fried or anything. It has to do with the environment. 540 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 8: So This is at the Olympic Village, which is the 541 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,680 Speaker 8: dining hall. They serve about forty five thousand meals. They're 542 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 8: going to twenty four to seven. The chefs fay say 543 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 8: that the French fries are too risky because of fire 544 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 8: hazard concerns over those deep fat friars. Okay, they're also 545 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,879 Speaker 8: they're also not serving foie gras because of concerns of 546 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:03,840 Speaker 8: animal will be and avocados. On top of it, you 547 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 8: cannot get those things. Avocados because they're imported from a 548 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 8: great distance and also they consume a lot of water, 549 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:12,880 Speaker 8: so that's why you can't get what you can have. 550 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 8: You can have French cheeses, you can have veal and 551 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,440 Speaker 8: like a light sauce, not a heavy buttery, you know. Okay, 552 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 8: and baguettes, yes, but there's gonna be over five hundred meals. 553 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 6: But no freez okay, but yes, no. 554 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 8: No French fries. You cannot have them at the Olympics. 555 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 2: We saw a TV twenty four I actually watched the 556 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,920 Speaker 2: whole YouTube video will they swim in the river sind 557 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 2: And the guy, mister environmentalist, he said right now he 558 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 2: wouldn't swim in the scent. 559 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:39,879 Speaker 3: But the opening Games. 560 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,639 Speaker 2: I believe I read the Opening Games are not going 561 00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 2: to be a huge arena. 562 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,960 Speaker 3: It's gonna be along the river like a boat for 563 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 3: the opening of opening, which is very cassome. I mean, 564 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 3: this is gonna be. 565 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,920 Speaker 6: This has the potential to be just an extraordinary Olympics with. 566 00:26:55,640 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 3: You and me Hotel sure by the shore, bring Francine 567 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 3: along to help us. You gad. 568 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:05,920 Speaker 4: Yes, it's like it's like. 569 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 3: A no brand. I mean, it was destined to happen. 570 00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 3: You know, what else do you happen? 571 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:15,680 Speaker 8: Lastly, Chipotle, I always thought that they piled on exactly, 572 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,879 Speaker 8: but actually there's a lot of people who are posting 573 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,639 Speaker 8: to social media. They're filming the workers who are dishing 574 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 8: out the food, and they're saying that they're skimping out 575 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 8: on the protein portions. They're giving smaller amounts of the 576 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 8: steak and the chicken, and so now they're posting these 577 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:32,680 Speaker 8: videos to kind of give pressure to Chipotle to. 578 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,359 Speaker 6: Say, hey, people on Third Avenue, they just do a 579 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 6: good job. 580 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 8: Yeah, there's one in my town. They pile it on. 581 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 3: Can I give you the best chicken in Paris? Yes? 582 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 2: The cocoa fee up by Ma Mantra, little tiny restaurant. 583 00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 2: You sit at the table with other people that you 584 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 2: don't know, and it's like real rotisserie. And the secret 585 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 2: is they use big birds. 586 00:27:56,160 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 3: The secret and not big bird, not bid use. They 587 00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,880 Speaker 3: use a bigger chicken than most people, a bigger chat. 588 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 3: You got to get a reservation, like through that really 589 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 3: red and they serve French fries. They when when. 590 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:17,359 Speaker 6: So I see going through the menu. 591 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,440 Speaker 3: Thank you for the newspapers today. 592 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best 593 00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:29,119 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 594 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast 595 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:37,400 Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from 596 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 2: seven to ten a m. Eastern from our global headquarters 597 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 2: in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 598 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, 599 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.