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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene. Along

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Speaker 1: with the Jonathan Ferrill and Lisa A. Brownowitz Jailey, we

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Speaker 1: bring you insight from the best an economics, finance, investment

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Fine Bloomberg Surveillance and Apple podcast SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to the market conversation with Ben Laidler, global

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Speaker 1: market strategist at r O. Ben, in your work, we

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Speaker 1: see some hope this bond route maybe easing. This is

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Speaker 1: a key ingredient for any equity recovery. Before we get

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Speaker 1: to talking about whether this is positive or not for

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Speaker 1: risk assets, can you tell me why you think bond

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Speaker 1: yields may well be peaking this time. I think it's

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Speaker 1: difficult to see real yields just continuing to head the

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Speaker 1: moon at a time when all your inflation lead indicators

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Speaker 1: are rolling over, where recession risks are spiking. I think

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Speaker 1: the disconnectus is in there, and I think given where

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Speaker 1: real and nominal yields got to, and on the flip side,

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Speaker 1: given where valuations and sentiment have got to, I think

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Speaker 1: that risk rewards set up is very, very interesting but

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Speaker 1: given that if the third is going to retrace some

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Speaker 1: of its pretty harkish statements, what does that mean in

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Speaker 1: terms of earnings. We've heard this from Mike Wilson, We've

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Speaker 1: heard this from Muhammadalarian that be careful what you wish for,

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Speaker 1: because if the Fed does retrace, that means that things

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Speaker 1: are really bad and we have no prey set in.

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Speaker 1: I think this is too earlier comment. This feels a

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Speaker 1: little bit like Graham Pop day right. I think the

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Speaker 1: setup is very similar to where we were before the

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Speaker 1: big sort of June rally. I think the market is

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Speaker 1: sniffing out. It's sort of top of the Fed cycle.

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Speaker 1: I think bond yields have overshot and are now coming down.

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Speaker 1: And I think to your point on earnings, we're going

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Speaker 1: into third quarter earning season. Wait yet again, expectations are

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Speaker 1: very very negative, and I think this is an attractive

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Speaker 1: set up. I think I think we're just gonna leap

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Speaker 1: over this sort of low bar and breathe a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a side relief. Then I want to go

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Speaker 1: to your huge track record and three cycles of getting

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Speaker 1: the market rate, and I want to go to Lisa's

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Speaker 1: gloom yesterday. I want to go to nodes of revenue guesses.

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Speaker 1: What it comes in the down to is with the

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Speaker 1: slowing economy, everybody's going to try to guess revenues at

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Speaker 1: the top line, given are the economic mumbo John, what

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Speaker 1: are the nodes of revenue guests? Is gonna do? I

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Speaker 1: think this is all sort of fair versus reality. I

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Speaker 1: think markets, I mean, we're down, earnings expectations have actually

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Speaker 1: fallen quite a lot, I would argue, um, and not

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Speaker 1: all recessions are created equal. I mean, granted, we're almost

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Speaker 1: certainly going into a recession, at least outside of Asia.

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Speaker 1: But this is not two thousand seven, This is not

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Speaker 1: This is I think in a much more plain vanilla

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Speaker 1: central bank driven recession. And I think that is given

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Speaker 1: where we are, I think that's actually pretty investable. That's

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Speaker 1: a two percentage point GDP pea trough four. That's the

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Speaker 1: kind of earnings expect pations where I think you're at

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Speaker 1: least halfway there. Again, I think where markets and sentiments

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Speaker 1: of valuations are at this point, I think the bigger

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Speaker 1: risk is being out not sorry, has been out not

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Speaker 1: in Okay, So given all of that, just quickly here,

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Speaker 1: how much are you buying with your conviction. I mean

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Speaker 1: it basically, are you loading up the truck. I think

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Speaker 1: we're building a bottom, right. I think this is a

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Speaker 1: U shaped recovery, not a V. I think the fair

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Speaker 1: has told us quite clearly that you know, they're going

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Speaker 1: to stay the course until something breaks. What hey, stuff,

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Speaker 1: Maybe study be starting to break. We don't need the

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Speaker 1: top of the FED cycle. We just need a little

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Speaker 1: bit of visibility that it may be coming in the

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Speaker 1: next sort of four or five months, and the fens

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Speaker 1: just not going to keep hiking here. I think all

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Speaker 1: the lead indicators are telling that. So I'm comfortable enough

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Speaker 1: saying we're building a bottom. So I'm fully invested. I'm

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Speaker 1: certainly tilted a bit more to The defensive risk is

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Speaker 1: still pretty high, but I'm absolutely nibbling at that sort

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Speaker 1: of quology risk that's sort of big tech, you know,

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Speaker 1: discounted small caps. I mean, the more this goes on,

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Speaker 1: the closer we get to inflation definitively coming down. Um,

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Speaker 1: I think you want to be raising the wrist budget

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Speaker 1: into that. Ben Nagler, thank you, sir. Thank Jordan Rochester

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Speaker 1: would probably get army Birmingham, Birmingham. I did, okay at

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Speaker 1: Jordan's at hometown. Boy, if you work from Birmingham, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Jordan Rochester joins us Nouf from Birmingham right now, Effect

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Speaker 1: strategy Nomura Jordan. I want to go to the news

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Speaker 1: of the day, which is the Bank of Australia blink.

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Speaker 1: There's no question about that. Maybe it's a new trend,

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Speaker 1: maybe it's not. If the banks start blinking like they did.

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Speaker 1: And I think Kimberra is that Canberra? Canberra and Canberra?

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Speaker 1: What does that mean for foreign exchange? What does that

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Speaker 1: mean for your call on the dollar? I think that's everything, Tom.

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Speaker 1: Are we going to have more central blanks blink? When

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Speaker 1: it comes to the r b A, it stands out

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Speaker 1: as one of the central banks with a mortgage market

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Speaker 1: where most mortgages are variable, they're floating, so they do

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Speaker 1: react to what's happening in rates markets today in those

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Speaker 1: housing markets for everybody, not just the marginal house purchaser.

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Speaker 1: Where in the US with ten year thirty year fixes,

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Speaker 1: in the UK with two and five, in Europe with

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Speaker 1: ten year fixes, the impact of these rate hikes come

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Speaker 1: through with a different lag. In the UK it's faster.

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Speaker 1: In the US it's much slower, and of course the

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Speaker 1: marginal buyers sets the price. So in even even in

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Speaker 1: the US, your your last guest was talking about the

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Speaker 1: slowdown house prices. But I think when it comes to

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Speaker 1: the FED, when it comes to other central banks, they're

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Speaker 1: still gonna be looking at inflation nowhere near their targets.

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Speaker 1: But what's going on right now in markets is people

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Speaker 1: are asking the question, oh, are we gonna listen to

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Speaker 1: what the Bank of England experienced last week? Will the FED?

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Speaker 1: Will the ECB think twice about what they're doing, just

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Speaker 1: in case we have a financial contagent risk that's building

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Speaker 1: up with rates moving as quickly as they are. So

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Speaker 1: I think right now it's all about mood music rather

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Speaker 1: than actual action from anyone like the FED or the

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Speaker 1: e c B. I think central banks will still be hawkish,

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Speaker 1: Inflation will still be stronger than they want, But right

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Speaker 1: now we're in that sort of quiet space where we're

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Speaker 1: all thinking, is the UK and as the r B

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Speaker 1: A are they both Canary in the coal mine sort

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Speaker 1: of situation? Jordan, I sentially skeptical. So you've fade in

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Speaker 1: this move. It's not what you're recommended to clients. I think.

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Speaker 1: I mean you mentioned temper set move and rule one

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Speaker 1: oh one, and I kind of broke that is, don't

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Speaker 1: chase flash crashes. And basically that's what we had in

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Speaker 1: Sterling after the mini budget. Huge moves, five percent moves lower.

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Speaker 1: Typically when you have that, everybody gets very convinced it's

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Speaker 1: the right trade, becomes very consensus, and then policy makers

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Speaker 1: react and then you have mean reversion on that reaction,

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Speaker 1: and that's what's happened. But in the u K's case,

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Speaker 1: the reaction has been really timid. So just reducing the

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Speaker 1: top rate tax from the forty five pence tax cost nothing. Really,

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Speaker 1: it's two billion pounds. We're talking a hundred billion for

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Speaker 1: their energy package overall over its lifetime, so there's two

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Speaker 1: billions of rounding error for the for fiscal sustainability. So

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Speaker 1: for me, this is all about mood music the UK

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Speaker 1: showing that perhaps they're not gonna be a z les

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Speaker 1: when it comes to fiscal policy making. But if you

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Speaker 1: take the facts as they are, everything's the same apart

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Speaker 1: from that two billion pounds spending. So I am skeptical, John,

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Speaker 1: and I also think core inflation in the US will

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Speaker 1: remain stickier than what all of our leading indicators for

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Speaker 1: headline inflation signals. Because commodity prices are soft, everyone says

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Speaker 1: peek inflation. I agree with that, but core inflation will

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Speaker 1: be stronger than you think because look at job openings

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Speaker 1: in the US, they're just ridiculously high and they're not

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Speaker 1: falling enough to say that we're having a weaker labor market.

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Speaker 1: So this all feeds into the FED not being happy

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Speaker 1: where things are, and this this softness in US yields,

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Speaker 1: I don't think it will last. So Jordan, we were

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Speaker 1: talking to Tom Sasuras of Strategus, a bird company, earlier,

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Speaker 1: and he was talking about how the price action that

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Speaker 1: you've seen in ten year treasuries and two year treasuries

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Speaker 1: indicates stability, indicates price discovery in a way that we

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Speaker 1: have not seen in years. Is the same true for

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Speaker 1: your FX market? With the pound rallying ten off of

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Speaker 1: an incredible swoon. I think most of that is poor

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Speaker 1: liquidity positioning in sterling being very one way. And then

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Speaker 1: we had the rebalancing of the month then and we

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Speaker 1: gotta remember as well, this pension situation meant that the

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Speaker 1: amount of flows going through in the UK were huge,

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Speaker 1: So it's kind of hard to say that is this

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Speaker 1: a fundamental price discovery that's going on. Or is this

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Speaker 1: just everybody being one way and pensions being bailed out

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Speaker 1: by the bank against que program which comes to an

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Speaker 1: end in less than two weeks, So we have to

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Speaker 1: watch out for that cliff edge. What happens to the

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Speaker 1: UK rates market one that's once a QUB program comes

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Speaker 1: to an end. I think price discovery is still in effect.

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Speaker 1: The US has everything the world needs. It has oil,

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Speaker 1: it has energy exports. The Europeans don't have either of

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Speaker 1: those things. And a key difference when they imported that

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Speaker 1: natural gas from Russia, it was priced in euros. Not anymore,

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Speaker 1: it's in llergy, it's in dollars. So there's a fundamental

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Speaker 1: terms of trade shift that points to euro being at

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Speaker 1: ninety cents by the end of this year. During let

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Speaker 1: me make clearer, and I'm not trying to sell the

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Speaker 1: mirror on this, but when the l d I scandal

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Speaker 1: was breaking, I used a Numurror research report from two

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Speaker 1: thousand eighteen Jordan. It was scary accurate about what the

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Speaker 1: mess would be in the British pension market. Jordan. Where's

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Speaker 1: the trade opportunity right now? I mean, where where's the

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Speaker 1: big figure opportunity right now, everything considered, I think where

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Speaker 1: we are today, I think we've got this dollar softness

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Speaker 1: facts to lower US yields. It's backed up by mood music,

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Speaker 1: the I s M being weaker, potential for China having

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Speaker 1: this marathon and masks being taken off of that marathon,

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Speaker 1: all kind of mood music stuff, not fundamental game changes.

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Speaker 1: We've got NFP coming up on Friday. I suspect we'll

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Speaker 1: have a strong average earlier earnings number. I think the

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Speaker 1: job's data will will still hold up the growth on

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Speaker 1: that side, So I think folks will be surprised again

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Speaker 1: by US jobs not slowing down as they expect from

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Speaker 1: all the growth signals we have. And then we've got

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Speaker 1: CPI the week after, so I think really the trade

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Speaker 1: is to fade this dollar weakness. It looks like everything

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Speaker 1: we saw in May what looks at what we saw

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Speaker 1: in guests. We had these kind of big draw downs

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Speaker 1: and the long dollar trade, but the trend is still there.

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Speaker 1: So you wrote to ninety cable to parity and below, Jordan,

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Speaker 1: can you just congratulate Tom for saying Birmingham and not

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Speaker 1: Birmingham working. I'm working. We've been working on this Jordan.

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Speaker 1: Next is the Bromi access. So if you can say

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Speaker 1: the right mates, I want to go up to the

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Speaker 1: and Harborne and have a truthful, full English, full English

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Speaker 1: up there's different. That was an authentic Bromi accent from Jordan,

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Speaker 1: Rochester with you, Mura Jordan, thank you. Right now she

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Speaker 1: has one of the greatest parchment streams in the United

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Speaker 1: Kingdom from Edinburgh to London School of Economics with real

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Speaker 1: expertise on China. The chief Economists Lombard Free Obamas joins

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Speaker 1: us right now for you just to start. Are we

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Speaker 1: in global recession? I think we're heading that way. I

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Speaker 1: didn't think we're quite there in the US. China is

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Speaker 1: probably coming out of its recession, but still very weak

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Speaker 1: and not coming not really going to get its reopening

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Speaker 1: boost until h one of next year. The real problem

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Speaker 1: is is Europe, and I think this is this is

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Speaker 1: um what's what's moving markets at the moment as well,

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Speaker 1: that there's something much wider going on here than just

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Speaker 1: the kind of the if I can use the term

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Speaker 1: slightly cat candid delivery of the of the of the

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Speaker 1: fiscal policy response in the UK. I look three at

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Speaker 1: the news flow and clearly Australia blinking is important. What

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Speaker 1: are the ramifications for other central banks, including ECB, that

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Speaker 1: rb A just decides enough. Yeah. I think what's happening

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Speaker 1: here is that there's there's a global shift towards a

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Speaker 1: higher returns environment, but you can't get there all in

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Speaker 1: one go um that the real economy just can't can't

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Speaker 1: handle it. And there are these sort of powder keggs

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Speaker 1: of um financial accelerators that have been left behind by

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Speaker 1: the period of low yields in the twenty tens. So

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Speaker 1: trying to get from the twenty tens level of yields

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Speaker 1: to a pre global financial crisis level of yield which

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Speaker 1: is where we think we ultimately will be ending up

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Speaker 1: over the twenties, trying to do that in one mini cycle,

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Speaker 1: which is the COVID cycle, is is just too much

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Speaker 1: for the real economy and for and for financial markets.

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Speaker 1: So I think what we start to see now is

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Speaker 1: that QUEI comes back in in a very different guise

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Speaker 1: from how it did in the twenty tens. It's much

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Speaker 1: more of the sort of the badget response to try

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Speaker 1: to provide liquidity um where necessary in order to prevent

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Speaker 1: yields from rising. More rapidly rather than to try to

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Speaker 1: keep yields from from shifting lower. And I think the

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Speaker 1: underlying forces here are much much wider than than the

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Speaker 1: kind of the narrative, at least around the UK UM suggests.

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Speaker 1: What's what's happening here is that there's been a redirection

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Speaker 1: of funds in favor of of the energy firms, in

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Speaker 1: favor of of of Russia really and UM and the

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Speaker 1: non for so all fuel firms. And what that does

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Speaker 1: is you're you're handing funds to companies and countries that

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Speaker 1: are much more likely to want to invest them than

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Speaker 1: they were in the in the recipients of those funds

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Speaker 1: in the in the twenty tens well from in that process,

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Speaker 1: you're dragging yields higher. There's a lot there, And I

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Speaker 1: want to just hone in on one thing that you said,

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Speaker 1: the quantitative easing this time around is going to look

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Speaker 1: very different. Does that mean that you think the quantitative

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Speaker 1: tightening is over and they were entering a new quantitative

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Speaker 1: easing cycle of trying to reduce the pace of bound

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Speaker 1: ye yield increases. I think in as far as the

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Speaker 1: UK goes, yes, I would say that the quant stative

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Speaker 1: easing is is sort of dead before it gets off

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Speaker 1: the off the ground. And yeah, the the quantitative tightening,

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Speaker 1: thank you m the quantitative tightening just doesn't doesn't really

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Speaker 1: get off the ground. That you get this kind of

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Speaker 1: QUEI that is is not the same flavor as the

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Speaker 1: as the twenty tens, and it's there to prevent yields

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Speaker 1: from rising too too rapidly um and that that is

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Speaker 1: is probably the case for for Europe as well. Where

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Speaker 1: where if anything, more worried than we are about about

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Speaker 1: the UK, with Germany already having suggested that they're going

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Speaker 1: to go alone on the on the fiscal front um,

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Speaker 1: where does that leave countries like like Italy um, where

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Speaker 1: we'd be much more worried about those kind of structural

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Speaker 1: issues starting to to re arise in the euro Area. Therefore,

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Speaker 1: you get the move back to to the t p I,

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Speaker 1: which can very easily translate into something similar to to

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Speaker 1: what the Bank of England is doing with regards to

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Speaker 1: its kind of short term new flavor q e UM.

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Speaker 1: So it's a very different flavor of monetary policy since

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Speaker 1: since the since the twenty tents. How much is this

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Speaker 1: a European story and how much is this a global story.

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Speaker 1: I mean Tom was talking about the RBA blinking raising

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Speaker 1: just twenty five basis points rather than a bigger rate

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Speaker 1: hike that was expected overnight. How much is this the

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Speaker 1: example rather than a story of specific nations facing specific

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Speaker 1: inflationary pressures. I think there are now so many different

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Speaker 1: idiosyncratic problems that are arising at the same time that

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Speaker 1: we can say that something systemic is actually going on.

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Speaker 1: The European trouble. Europe is definitely at the center of this.

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Speaker 1: I would definitely point out problems in China that can arise,

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Speaker 1: perhaps not till after the reopening, so therefore into the

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Speaker 1: second half of of of next year, but I would

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Speaker 1: definitely point that out as a structural turning points for

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Speaker 1: for China as well. And I think because of of

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Speaker 1: this kind of updraw in in yields that the fiscal

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Speaker 1: authorities are very much are very much leaning against. You've

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Speaker 1: got this battle for for funds. That really speaks to

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Speaker 1: the longer term secular trends that have just been sort

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Speaker 1: of fast forwarded by this energy energy shock, that deterioration

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Speaker 1: of of the geopolitical environment and the natural environment. These

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Speaker 1: are all factors that are kind of nasty cost push

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Speaker 1: for inflation factors that that speak to um the need

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Speaker 1: for higher returns, and that the likelihood of higher returns

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Speaker 1: in the in the twenties, and we're just seeing the

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Speaker 1: fast forwarding of that in the in the short term.

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Speaker 1: But I think it does lead to to capitulation on

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Speaker 1: central banks, first in the form of pushing back against

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Speaker 1: the financial accelerators, as we've seen in the in the

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Speaker 1: UK and the pension funds fiasco. But then in the

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Speaker 1: case of Europe, as a result of the slowdown in

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Speaker 1: in growth. Yes, governments are are supporting their economies through

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Speaker 1: fiscal spending, but that the cost of doing that, there's

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Speaker 1: no free lunch. The cost of doing that is that

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Speaker 1: yields are much higher, so you're getting the spending on energy,

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Speaker 1: but it's happening at a higher higher yield. And therefore

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Speaker 1: the property market in the UK and and the and

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Speaker 1: yields more broadly are starting to tighten financial conditions and

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Speaker 1: tamp down on growth in in that map and that fashion,

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Speaker 1: so central banks turned from worrying about inflation UM in

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Speaker 1: Europe to worrying about to worrying about the financial accelerators,

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Speaker 1: and then growth UM and and therefore you get the

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Speaker 1: capitulation in that sense. I think in the US we

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Speaker 1: are in a very different position here because inflation is

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Speaker 1: more embedded UM, and therefore the policy response has to

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Speaker 1: be still focused on inflation. Is the heritage of TS.

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Speaker 1: Lombard Freyer. I mean, model out how they get to

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Speaker 1: two Given that a huge body of people say that's

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Speaker 1: an impossible event, do you just assume they get to

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Speaker 1: five percent or four percent and then recalibrate. I think

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Speaker 1: that's probably where we're getting too further down the line

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Speaker 1: that they will eventually explicitly or implicitly revert inflation. Inflation

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Speaker 1: targets higher um, just because there are so many secular

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Speaker 1: forces that are pointing in favor of higher inflation, and

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Speaker 1: not all of them being kind of cost push inflation.

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Speaker 1: There's also this change in the relationship in global labor

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Speaker 1: markets and credit as well that that suggests that China

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Speaker 1: is no longer a cap on on wage growth in

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Speaker 1: developed markets. Therefore, you have faster wage growth, you also

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Speaker 1: have faster faster credit growth than Both of those things

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Speaker 1: are inflationary. So leaning against that means it's you're kind

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Speaker 1: of accepting this politically unacceptable idea of a much higher

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Speaker 1: unemployment rate in order to get inflation back down again. UM.

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Speaker 1: But I think in the shorter term with the FED

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Speaker 1: that the point that I would get across is that

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Speaker 1: there's there's too much reliance on on leading indicators that

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Speaker 1: are simply monitoring what the costs are doing, and that

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Speaker 1: the demand supply imbalance in in UM in in the US,

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Speaker 1: both in terms of the goods market still both in

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Speaker 1: terms of the labor market UM is still great enough

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Speaker 1: that you've got this underlying heat in the in demand

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Speaker 1: in the in the economy UM. And therefore, while the

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Speaker 1: rest of the world has good prospects for a slow

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Speaker 1: down in inflation, I'm still worried that you get upside

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Speaker 1: surprises in inflation in the US because margins have that

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Speaker 1: have greater room to expand on the back of demand

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Speaker 1: still remaining relatively strong. So we're very much looking out

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Speaker 1: for that US recession coming through because that's the kind

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Speaker 1: of the key the key turning point for the FED.

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Speaker 1: But it doesn't seem like we're quite there yet. Frans,

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Speaker 1: thank you for being with us this morning. Frank Bemish

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Speaker 1: of Tis Lampard, just Britiant. It is October which means

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Speaker 1: we must speak with Paul Sky, founder and lead analyst

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Speaker 1: at Sanky Research, who was ignoring his conversation. Paul Sankey

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Speaker 1: is decades of experience in oil and knows in October

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Speaker 1: there is Vienna and there's also Park Lane, a string

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Speaker 1: of hotels in London where the elite meet degreed in

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Speaker 1: the oil community, as they do beginning today. It is

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Speaker 1: the well the energy executive of the years from Cutter

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Speaker 1: will pass on that, but far more CEOs together and

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Speaker 1: the rest Paul is a consensus opinion that oil will

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Speaker 1: rise back into the hundreds. Yeah, I think so. I

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Speaker 1: mean that the first consensus is that will get a

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Speaker 1: million barrel to day cut from Okay tomorrow and what

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Speaker 1: people here are saying will be a brief meeting. I

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Speaker 1: was told that the decisions already taken. I was actually

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Speaker 1: hoping that they would take some time and argue a

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Speaker 1: bit so I'd get a chance to get out to

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Speaker 1: Dianna towards the end of the week. But evidently the

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Speaker 1: decision will come tomorrow. That should be I think a

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Speaker 1: million barrel. They cut a bit about half of that

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Speaker 1: probably time actually delivered, but it's still enough to tighten

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Speaker 1: what's effectively a market imbalance in Q four, so any

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Speaker 1: cut will effectively served to raise prices the elite meat

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Speaker 1: degree at the Intercontinental Hotel or at the Dorchester where

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Speaker 1: umbrellas in their drink. But is it just about Saudi Arabia,

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Speaker 1: Arabia and Russia. Well, I have to say I've got

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Speaker 1: to wear black tie tonight for the for the award dinner.

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Speaker 1: To my media help with the boats, eie there, that's yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean we had we had the CEO of Around

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Speaker 1: Cooke talking very eloquently, Japeman Burden of Shell also very eloquent.

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Speaker 1: We had protesters outside the Intercontinental yelling in my ear

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Speaker 1: as I walked in. But the problem is the protesters

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Speaker 1: don't really have a coherent solution. In fact, nobody does,

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Speaker 1: and that's that's one of the issues. A couple of

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Speaker 1: interesting points from Shell. For instance, he said that this

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Speaker 1: quarter alone, China is adding more cold production than the

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Speaker 1: entirety of Shell's energy product, and so essentially, in one quarter,

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Speaker 1: China grows coal by the entire size of Shell. And

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Speaker 1: again talking about the CEO of Aronco again talking about

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Speaker 1: lack of spec capacity and how demand is remaining strong.

401
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,199
Speaker 1: So again further to your first question, it's all pointing

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Speaker 1: towards higher prices basically, and that's really the crux of

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Speaker 1: the matter. How much is this potential cut of a

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Speaker 1: million barrels really an issue of a lack of capacity

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Speaker 1: rather than the appearance of lack of demand. And how

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Speaker 1: much pushback will OPEC plus get from the United States

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Speaker 1: from Europe saying we need lower prices at this point

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Speaker 1: to steve off a crisis. Why are you effectively causing

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Speaker 1: an increase in prices, are potentially slating the groundwork for

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Speaker 1: that going forward. Well, Lizzy made a great point which

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Speaker 1: I'll come back to you, But firstly, I think the

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Speaker 1: Saudis have enjoyed a hundred dollar oil, and you know,

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Speaker 1: I would rather be closer to a hundred than too eighty.

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Speaker 1: So that's point one. Point two that you made is

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Speaker 1: that they're so tight on spec capacity that they may

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Speaker 1: well feel that, you know, to rest their fields a bit,

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Speaker 1: to give themselves some more breathing room. A cut is

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Speaker 1: a good thing. The outside chance was that there'd be

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Speaker 1: a major quota renegotiation, but it doesn't sound like that's happening.

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Speaker 1: These guys are still using eighteen quotas, which are just

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Speaker 1: completely nonsensical now in terms of things like Nigeria and

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Speaker 1: Angola's just not even close to their quotas. But I

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Speaker 1: don't think there's going to be that kind of agreement.

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Speaker 1: I think it will be a pretty strong cut decision

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Speaker 1: led by Saudi U a fifteen minute mating, of course,

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Speaker 1: fifteen minutes or more for this mating. More than fifteen

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Speaker 1: I think you know that those ones were just rubber stamps.

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Speaker 1: But it may be. I think, well, I was again,

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Speaker 1: I was hoping it would be it would take longer

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Speaker 1: than than a day and roll into Thursday Friday. It

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Speaker 1: sounds like we'll get a decision tomorrow and before the

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Speaker 1: markets in the US tomorrow. Yeah, it could be. There

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Speaker 1: we go. Paul sank you, Thank you, sir. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to see a Paul Sanky there. Thank you. Research. This

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Speaker 1: is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us

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